It’s Day 16 of the trial.
Hard to believe it’s possible that the prosecution could rest as soon as Thursday. That would be trial days on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday this week. Trump has Friday off to go to Barron’s graduation. Odds on Trump skipping graduation to go to his own rally that night?
It looks like Michael Cohen will be testifying today!
Best sources of live blogging that I have found. It looks like some of them are only live blogging for the “big” witnesses. Pretty sure that Michael Cohen counts as a big witness. This is gonna be lit, as the kids used to say. (What do the kids say these days?)
Josh Kovensky (TPM) live blogging
Mark Sumner (Daily Kos) live blogging
Tyler McBrien (Lawfare) on twitter
Good morning from 100 Centre St for Trump’s NY Criminal Trial. Today’s episode will very likely be: “The Michael Cohen Show.”
I’ll be reporting it all alongside @AnnaBower and Ben Wittes for @lawfare, join me, won’t you? 🧵⚖️ pic.twitter.com/vvFD2L6XlP
— Tyler McBrien (@TylerMcBrien) May 13, 2024
Anna Bower (Lawfare) on twitter
Good morning from Manhattan criminal court, where Trump’s trial is set to resume.
It’s a big day: Michael Cohen—the former “fixer” at the center of the events underlying Trump’s charges—is set to testify.
I’m here for @lawfare alongside @TylerMcBrien.
Follow along 🧵⬇️ pic.twitter.com/UpJTJxLljF
— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) May 13, 2024
Adam Klasfeld on twitter (not up yet today)
Good morning from New York.
On Friday, the jury heard this Trump tweet recited into the record—about his "reimbursement" to Michael Cohen for "a non-disclosure agreement."
Trump's attorney denied the reimbursement when trial began.
Soon, Cohen is expected to testify.🧵 pic.twitter.com/pBjV8obEoA
— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) May 13, 2024
Still loving this awesome image. When you get tired of it, let me know.
So easy to find the image in the media library. I just search for bitch, and it comes right up.
Open thread.
WaterGirl
Post updated with all the live bloggers so far. Nothing yet from Mark Sumner or Daily Kos, but I think I have the rest of them.
Anonymous at Work
Cohen’s done this before the House and others, knows to keep it short and simple, and will admit to being TFG’s attack dog.
The cross will focus on his crimes, all done for and some at behest of TFG.
Gonna get helpful witness but defense isn’t going to get him tripped up. Lies are complicated,the truth tends to get simple.
Curious who the defense will call.
narya
I want him to be boring, pointed, and devastating.
LAO
Damn it. Whoever had JD Vance and Tuberville attending Trump’s trial wins. I really wanted it to be Cruz. So disappointed.
dmsilev
@Anonymous at Work:
I’m wondering whether Trump himself is demanding to testify and his lawyers are doing everything they can, up to and including drugging him, to keep that from happening.
Slightly_peeved
@Anonymous at Work:
that Tweet seems like a super good way of setting the table for Cohen. He’s filling in details to an arrangement TFG’s already confirmed.
Anonymous at Work
@LAO: Cruz is enough of an attorney and an asshole that *I* wouldn’t want him watching. Critiquing my side or advising the other side, there’s no solace or help on net. Because he’s such an asshole.
Kay
I like Cohen. He’s made mistakes but he did his time without whining and he seems genuinely devoted to his family, unlike the rest of these frauds.
I wish him well.
TBone
New tune, new day 🎶 mood music
m.youtube.com/watch?v=3EiIlGLANEI
Anonymous at Work
@dmsilev: I have thought about what I would require to be TFG’s attorney. Permission to mickey or kneecap would be among them, for this exact purpose.
Also, all social media passwords and 3x expected fees in retainer upfront.
Permission to pepper spray Boris Ephystein, Stephen Miller, or Bannon whenever I wanted would be a bonus, just for me.
LAO
@Anonymous at Work: Personally, I think Cruz would torpedo Trump if he could do it anonymously but point taken.
Kay
It’s tragic, in a way. He wasted his life on the repulsive Trump family. I assume he thought he was doing it for his own family – employment or a chance to be around rich people, like he’d somehow tap into wealth – but it’s still sad. He’ll always just be a footnote in the bizarre and horrible Trump story.
smith
So it looks like the jury won’t hear about Weisselberg’s
bribeseparation agreement after all, and it seems neither side will try to call him as a witness.Harrison Wesley
Trump will probably stay awake today. Whether or not he can restrain his gaseous emissions is unknown. It may be part of his defense strategy.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@narya: Remember when HRC testified for 10 hours before the House? She spoke slowly and tediously, making it hard to create sound bites.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@dmsilev: I wondered if Trump said he wasn’t allowed to testify because of the gag order because his lawyers had told him something to discourage his doing so.
NotMax
@Harrison Wesley
“You ate the bucket of 5-bean chili we sent over last night, right?”
//
narya
@Dorothy A. Winsor: THAT is exactly the strategy I’d like to see executed. That said, Cohen isn’t in HRC’s league, by a long shot, so . . . I’ll settle for “doesn’t say anything stupid and confirms all of the paperwork.”
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@dmsilev: I heard cross-examination of Stormy Daniels was really stupid and self-destructive, likely angering the jury, and that most likely the lawyers were getting orders on that line of questioning from their client.
I think they know they have no case, so giving him the lead and doing every stupid thing he demands is how you keep getting paid.
smith
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Here’s hoping his stupid demands include taking the stand himself.
gene108
@dmsilev:
Trump’s been deposed many times with all the civil cases he’s filed or been sued for nonpayment. He knows the risks of being under oath and how it limits what he can say.
Jackie
@LAO: GQP senators aren’t a good replacement for TIFG’s lack of family support. I really doubt the jurors know who Vance and Tuberville are, or Rick Scott from last week.
OTOH, the jurors would probably recognize TIFG family members.
Baud
I heard there were 100,000 people in the courtroom today.
NotMax
@Baud
Hannibal Lecter a no-show.
//
Spanky
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I can’t help wondering if the defense is doing all the stupid things because they know they’ve got one or more ringers in the jury.
Old School
He’s already committed to a dinner in Minnesota that night, so any rally will have to wait until the weekend.
Anonymous at Work
@smith: Perjury in defense of the criminal defendant will do that. Cohen is third person in that room, so the defense has bad choices if they can’t destroy Cohen. Which, I think, they won’t.
LAO
@dmsilev: Whenever I was faced with a defendant that insisted on testifying I would employ a common defense strategy, arrange a mock cross examination by a devastatingly good cross examiner. Worked every time.
Spanky
@NotMax: I don’t think Anthony Hopkins is the kind of person to do this, but I wish he’d put out a video, in character, insinuating he’d like to invite Trump for dinner.
Scout211
Business as usual for Trump, that Cohen “renegotiated.” (NBC)
ETA: Will attorneys bring up the “fixer” word?
Dorothy A. Winsor
Sumner’s coverage is up now
Anonymous at Work
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: my read was that the defense was going for jury nullification a la “Women always trying to get your money, amirite?” with one male juror. So, Stormy cross may have hurt with majority but the defense only needs one to hang the jury.
Jackie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
That made Judge Merchan’s very deliberate correction to TIFG and his attorneys extra delicious! And, if his lawyers let him believe he couldn’t testify due to the Gag Order, Merchan publicly embarrassed them in front of TIFG and the media and onlookers in the courtroom. 😁
schrodingers_cat
Am I the only one who is completely bored of the Trump Show that we have been subjected to for 8 plus years. Its time to pull the plug on it. Hoping that majority of the voters (in the appropriate states) agree with me
Scout211
Yep, they went there. (CNN)
Omnes Omnibus
@LAO: 100%.
3Sice
@NotMax:
I think the poster that noted his narcissistic self image as evil genius raconteur is spot on.
The truth will be ketchup on egg noodles in whatever Federal custody they devise for him. His self-promotion to King of America will be well deserved.
smith
@schrodingers_cat: It’s like a recurring nightmare you have every night. The repetition gets tedious, but it’s still scary.
schrodingers_cat
@smith: Yeah. It is scary. I have grown weary of it.
Melancholy Jaques
@schrodingers_cat:
You are not alone. I am sick and tired of the fawning press, the worshippers, the stupid voters who think he was great, and everything else. When has an election loser been promoted as much as Trump? Gore, Kerry, and Clinton were all told to shut up and go home. The press still waits for every word from Trump like little puppies waiting for a treat.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Nope.
TBone
@Baud: 😆
Suzanne
I really think of Trump as an avatar of the aspirations and fantasies of the terrible people who vote for him. Cohen was Trump’s “fixer”, which indicates that — if my theory is correct — a huge amount of our fellow Americans really wish they could commit crimes and have a fixer to take the blame.
This realization genuinely makes me less charitable.
schrodingers_cat
@Melancholy Jaques: I don’t remember such fawning over McCain or Romney either.
Snarki, child of Loki
Hannibal Lector is clearly who Trump should have as his cell-mate, since Trump already has a high opinion of him.
smith
@schrodingers_cat: I think any politically aware person who has lived through it will have at least some associated PTSD for the rest of their life. The discouraging thing is, even if we win in Nov, and even if he’s sent to prison, we will have to endure this for probably 2 more years as his appeals and election lawsuits play out. Unless, of course, there is a merciful (for us) death that intervenes.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
They lost. There was a lot of fawning over W, but they at least tried to make their lies appear reality based.
Jackie
I see Michael Cohen’s wife is there in support! 😁👍🏻
zhena gogolia
@NotMax: lol
Baud
@Jackie:
What kind of monster would you have to be to not have your spouse by your side during something like this?
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊 😊 😊
coin operated
@Baud: Same monster that didn’t have his wife by his side on Mother’s Day.
Baud
Hard to believe there are people having worse months than Donald Trump.
Jackie
Heh, per Jake Tapper, CNN, who’s in the courtroom: TIFG appears to be in a “mood,” and described him thus:
smith
@Jackie: Wonder why the Defendant gave up his signature red tie. I’m surprised he owns ties in other colors.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat: I am so sick of it. Partly I’m terrified of the Putinesque dictatorship we’re sleepwalking into, partly I’m furious at all the people who still support him, but mostly I’m BORED OUT OF MY MIND BY HIM.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m more disgusted. But, I feel you.
3Sice
@Baud:
The Kaite Britt VP revival tour lasted a New York minute.
Burgum was at the Jersey klan rally.
LAO
Why is Leslie Crocker Synder aka the worst judge in NY County on MSNBC? I’m literally having ptsd like flashbacks to the beginning of my career.
I wish this trial would end.
japa21
@LAO: Love your little tidbits, like this one.
NotMax
@smith
Thus far he’s shown up with a red one, a blue and white striped one and, predictably, a golden one.
Barbara
@Kay: If I understand correctly, Cohen’s father-in-law is the one who introduced Cohen to Trump, and has been associated with shady businesses, and also pleaded guilty to tax fraud. I don’t know that I would go so far as to say it is tragic, but it does show how hard it can be to get out of a rut only after you realize how deep it has gotten.
LAO
@Barbara: According to Cohen’s testimony he met Trump through a board issue at one of the Trump buildings when Cohen engineered a board coup and settled the issue in a manner that Trump approved of. Trump, jr. introduced him to his father.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I know. So did Trump. And that hasn’t made a dent in his appeal to Vichy Times and other MSM outlets.
LAO
@japa21: thanks. Sometimes I feel a little narcissistic sharing personal anecdotes but it was my backyard for 25 years.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: The monster who was the last President of these great United States.
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: Sick, weary, disgusted and bored. All of it.
I have the same weary feeling about Modi, and his “oratory”. I just don’t see what others see in them.
feebog
The prosecution has done a masterful job in the manner they have positioned the witnesses. Almost everything Cohen will testify to has already been cooperated by other witnesses or documents. My only concern is that the defense manages to bait him and he loses it on cross. He has a short fuse and not a lot of patience.
Mr. Bemused Senior
This is what worries me, too. Trump’s pitch, which seems to resonate with many people, is that outright transgressive and even violent behavior is the way to succeed in the world. You see it over and over in what he says. He frames it as “hitting back” but that’s just an excuse.
Well yes but there are millions of people who still want to vote for him.
I doubt even most of his supporters would enjoy living in the lawless society to which Trump aspires. They just don’t imagine the outcome like we do here.
Omnes Omnibus
@LAO: Local color is always useful. And yours in more useful than most. You can give insights into local practices that even other experienced attorneys can’t. The culture of every courthouse is different.
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: @LAO: I second what Omnes said! One of the best things about the jackal community is the wide range of experience and interests.
la caterina
@Omnes Omnibus: Agee, I practice in Brooklyn and I know nothing about NY County. Each court in NYC is its own little world.
Kay
@Barbara:
Oof. His father in law?
Cohen is smart (enough) – he would have been fine with a normal job w/out criminals. The Trumps don’t even pay well! These bribes are chump change.
Celebrity worship is a hell of a drug.
Gretchen
@LAO: no. Your anecdotes are interesting
schrodingers_cat
OT: Have you guys come across any election coverage about the Indian elections in the MSM which features the opposition at all? Mostly I have come across the same old Modi is inevitable type coverage in the US media.
schrodingers_cat
@LAO: No don’t, we love your anecdotes.
eclare
@schrodingers_cat:
I was just thinking that.
Bupalos
@Spanky: I think the odds are very high this ends with a hung jury, in record time. Whether or not there are Trump “ringers” in there, there are going to be 1 or 2 at least that are susceptible to the the nihilist line that the defense is spinning. Basically they’ll put legal reasoning aside and just decide this “is just how it is,” that everyone gets away with this stuff of fudging things for politics, and so there isn’t a crime here.
Another Scott
@Anonymous at Work: OTOH, who was it here that said that 90+% of criminal cases that go to trial result in conviction??
Juries have been able to hang for a very long time. It’s uncommon.
We’ll see what happens.
Cheers,
Scott.
LAO
@Omnes Omnibus: @narya: Thanks. And true, I always appreciate a little inside baseball on topics I’m not familiar with.
@la caterina: So true, I once thought a judge in Richmond County (Staten Island) was going to throw me in jail during an arraignment. It was like a different planet.
eclare
@LAO:
I appreciate your insight too! Share away!
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Baud:
I very briefly dated a woman in college, probably 1980, who was from ND and I was totally unprepared for the vitriol and racist stuff that came outta her pie hole on the subject of the native tribes. And I grew up hearing that same crap said in the world around me about blacks, experienced it first hand when I was part of the original court-ordered bussing program in Norfolk VA. Nonetheless, it was shocking to hear it out of a college sophomore in that setting.
I later learned that it was basically par for the course among whites in the Dakotas. That’s why it’s great to see the tribes hammering back at this latest iteration of white racism and supremacy vis a vis native tribes in the Dakotas.
Scout211
Scout211
This was the “only” time that Cohen taped a conversation with Trump, he testified. He said it was for Pecker, to make sure that Pecker knew that he would be paid.
StringOnAStick
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: My long ago ex had a grandfather that was a farmer in SD. That guy didn’t consider Native Americans to even be human. That local racism runs deep so I’m glad to see the tribes fight back.
smith
Trump telling him to pay with cash to avoid a paper trail is another bit of evidence that this was not a normal business expense for legal services, and the Defendant knew it.
Baud
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
@StringOnAStick:
A good reminder that it wasn’t just the South we lost when Dems decided to become the civil rights and equality party.
brantl
@Harrison Wesley:
A skunk’s answer to Squid Ink?
Suzanne
@rikyrah:
Yes this.
Disgusted. Appalled. Contemptuous.
But most of all…. deeply, deeply disappointed.
Like, a level of disappointment that has changed how I view myself in relation to my country, and what I believe the country is worth…. And that will likely never recover.
Bill Arnold
FWIW, Snopes dug into the Trump’s-kids-graduations story.
Trump Went to His Children’s High School and College Graduations – Despite widespread claims to the contrary, reports place the former president at nearly all his children’s graduations. (Snopes, Alex Kasprak, April 20, 2024)
Baud
@Baud:
Left out the word “party.” The party of civil rights and equality.
Anonymous At Work
@Another Scott: It’s the attorney who never takes a client or a case unless they know they can win. Prosecutors can get voted out for not taking cases to trial but that’s rare. In this instance, the jury nullification is pretty blatant and pretty directed. If it works, one man with a bad history with women will sink the jury. If the jury doesn’t have that one guy, the defense’s efforts will result in conviction.
Baud
@Bill Arnold:
Well, that’s one less mark against him. Eleventy billion to go.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: Yes, there are many times when I say to my husband in wonder that “this is all because of Donald Fucking Trump.” For those with self-awareness, I cannot fathom the level of self-abasement they are willing to put up with. For those without self-awareness, true believers, I don’t understand what they think he would ever do for them. No, I am not following the trial except in summary fashion. It’s just not that interesting.
@Suzanne: Yes to all of that.
trollhattan
@Baud: So she’s not wandering over to bang Kevin Costner in between doing state bidnez, like in Yellowstone?
Pity.
Baud
@Barbara:
I’ve probably hurt my success due to excessive pride, but at least I have some pride.
brantl
@trollhattan: I’m pretty sure Costner has standards, like, no reptiles.
Barbara
@Baud: I know I shouldn’t care, but every time I look at Noem I can’t stop thinking, “now that’s a face that has been altered through plastic surgery.” Especially her eyes. The kind of procedure necessary to reduce eye lines seems to produce “cat eye” effects. Melania Trump is another obvious example.
Sure Lurkalot
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
A nonzero number of his supporters think they are one lucky break away from fabulous wealth, where a lot of societal rules and laws do not apply. Even their addled brains can see Donald has skated by for decades…”when you’re a star, they let you do it” has rung true for more than sexual assault in Don’s life.
As for the not quite but close reprehensible Melania, she hasn’t willingly been around Trump for a couple of years now, but his sycophants still believe she is hopelessly devoted to Trump and was and will be the most awesome First Lady. I guess we’ll see if she shows up for anything as we get closer to the election. Will Tim Scott’s summer wedding occur if he’s not selected VP?
StringOnAStick
@Suzanne: Right there with you. I remember being embarrassed 20 years ago when I explained the concept of American Exceptionalism to some Canadians who asked me about it. Now I’m extremely cynical about having ever entertained that idea seriously as a kid.
eclare
@Barbara:
Plus they both wear too much eye make up, to me that accentuates the cat eye effect.
TS
@Barbara:
I cannot believe how they have stretched their values to accept all that he has done. I want to see the day when they wake up and realise what he has done & what they have done to themselves. I think those who have gone to prison because of their support for him, may have some awakenings (not all of them, but the sane ones)
Ksmiami
@schrodingers_cat: yes. I want this human garbage to Friggin go away
Ksmiami
@Suzanne: oh my god, us too.
StringOnAStick
@eclare: Its interesting to see how that look transfers downward to the youngest. A friend’s 13 year old daughter is very into eye make-up that would make Amy Winehouse look twice. It appears to be a phase that she’s now growing out of.
pluky
@LAO: Cruz is in too much of a mess with his own reelection attempt to afford mixing in TFG’s mishegas.
Barbara
@TS: They probably dismiss people like me out of hand, but a few years ago Chakira was on the Super Bowl half-time show and all these evangelical types came out of the woodwork on Twitter wringing their hands about how racy her act was — and all I could think was, “I no longer have to listen to the moral scolding of people who knowingly worship a man who brags about grabbing pussy.” Just STFU and stop pretending you care about morality.
I am convinced that there has never been a less self-aware demographic in the history of humanity.
Baud
@pluky:
Texas would be a sweet pickup especially with Maryland looking uncertain.
Mr. Bemused Senior
The one thing we can thank Trump for is he ripped off the mask. They are completely exposed for who they really are.
Eolirin
@Baud: We cannot afford to lose Maryland. Ugh.
But Texas would indeed be a sweet pickup, and so would Florida, and I think if we get Texas we have a good shot at getting Florida too, but both are going to be hard.
CaseyL
@Suzanne:
I go back and forth on the country’s “worth” as an idealistic experiment.
Sometimes I think (h/t Battlestar Galactica): “All this has happened before, and it will happen again.” History is cyclic.
I think back to things like the genocide of Native Americans and slavery; the huge expansion across the continent after the Civil War that produced both the worst of the genocide and the creation of so many would-be utopian communities.
I think about each wave of liberation movements – for minorities, women, Native Americans, etc. – how each one gets a little further forward than the preceding wave but is also always beaten back a step or two.
We are in this moment, we have to live in this moment, and the immediacy of it naturally makes the moment seem more permanent. It might be so, for us – our lifetimes are finite; we may not live long enough to see the next wave of liberation and liberalism if Trumpism triumphs.
But I take some small comfort in knowing those waves will come, even if neither I nor anyone or anything I know and love will be here when they do.
If the US is good at nothing else, it is very good at re-invention.
Baud
@Eolirin:
Even if Trone wins but especially if Alsobrook wins, Maryland will be a real test for white Dem leaning voters commitment to Dem values.
Another Scott
@pluky: There was a WaPo story the end of last week about how bi-partisany Cruz has been recently (e.g. he was a big player in the FAA reauthorization bill that just passed something like 88:14). He must indeed be worried about Allred.
Fingers crossed!
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@CaseyL:
When I’m down, I think of myself and am re-inspired.
Eyeroller
@Baud: I am hoping they can hammer Hogan on reproductive rights. That seems to be the weakest spot there.
rikyrah
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
But, see, the laws would only apply to THOSE PEOPLE
He would hurt THOSE PEOPLE.
And, that’s all that matter to them.
smith
@Barbara: I’ve long thought that the gateway drug into MAGAland was racism. For years before the Defendant turned to politics, the GQP had been less and less willing to pretend that racism was not its primary appeal to non-rich voters. That racism co-occurs with a lot of other moral failings is no big surprise, and with the MAGA movement becoming so loud and proud about it, it’s no wonder those other failings have also become obvious. These are not nice people, never have been.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
I haven’t. It’s Modi-positive press
StringOnAStick
I finally read the “why I won’t vote for Biden” manifesto from my friend’s son who graduated last week from Howard. It’s a wordy list of Gaza and Bernie Was Robbed. She had wanted me to counter it and after the first few paragraphs I said hell naw, I’ve got better ways to spend my voter outreach time than with this entitled ODD (he was diagnosed with this at age13) and told my friend I didn’t have 8 hours to counter all his arguments, especially since he’s still ODD and it will have zero impact. It just pissed me off, and then she told me she heard a lot of the same from his group of friends and fellow grads.
This is the cohort who thanks to Covid never had a graduation ceremony so they’re way into it. I now wonder if the social effects of Covid on high school kids has led to some serious IGMFU in this group. I later thought about it based on what folks said here after I mentioned this situation, that by ensuring a tRump win, they are saying they’re fine with all the crap that’s going to hit the poor and especially poor POC ‘s, a group that many of his fellow grads are barely a single generation away from being, or the 11 million they plan to deport, or all the women who will bleed out in a hospital bathroom when there’s no other state to flee to, only another country, and how he’s a black man showing the whitest of white privilege with this stance. Being still pissed and saying Biden and the D’s hate democracy because some later primary states didn’t hold one is just looking for Chapo Trap House excuses. He’s swallowed every bit of Putin’s left wing media ratfucking while at the same time thinking he and his friends are THE most informed, thoughtful and highest of morals individuals (such classic college grad thinking). When he worked as an intern on Capital Hill, he wasn’t like this, it’s when he stopping working there that he got so radicalized. He’s applying to work in the offices of only the farthest left House members and the farthest left senator from his home state. I wonder if they’ll check his social media posting history as part of his application, because being loud and proud about refusing to vote D isn’t going to get him any of these jobs he so desperately wants
Baud
@Eyeroller:
Probably will. I don’t know what he has to offer a blue state on the federal level.
Baud
@StringOnAStick:
Good call. Don’t waste attention on people who deserve contempt.
MinuteMan
@Baud:
There was a Far Side comic about equine medicine which feature a treatment table: the treatment for every malady was “shoot”. Maybe there’ll be a similar Kristi Noem book on dog training, although probably all the dogs would all be shot before the housetraining was over.
Eyeroller
@Baud: Unfortunately most people don’t vote based on any rational analysis. He has high “personal favorability” ratings i.e. people thinking “I’d like him to be my friend and I’ll just hire my friend for this important job.” The oppo research will have to tear that down.
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: Not much, I heard this on NPR this morning. npr.org/2024/05/13/1250855136/indias-ruling-party-is-accused-of-incitement-against-muslim-minority
Baud
@Eyeroller:
Well, people like Ted Cruz didn’t get elected on being likeable.
But yes, voters doing the right thing on their own initiative shouldn’t be assumed.
Geminid
@Eyeroller: Democrats will also wrap Trump around Hogans neck, try make him disavow Trump or explain why he won’t.
This could be a major line of attack against purple district Republicans as well; people like Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.
rikyrah
@Baud: \
I don’t see Maryland as being uncertain. We have to GOTV, but the metrics are in Democrat’s favor.
Hogan hasn’t been called on the carpet for his changes in policy that allowed the bridge collapse to be possible.
Plus, this is a Presidential election year.
also, Maryland has an Abortion Rights Measure on the ballot, and Hogan will not be allowed to weasel his way out of that either.
Maryland finally got over the hump of electing Black candidates statewide. Now that it has, it can do it again.
Baud
@rikyrah:
More uncertain than I’d like. Wouldn’t mind seeing Hogan lose his primary to a MAGA candidate. Don’t know that that’s likely though.
Another Scott
@StringOnAStick: Maybe tell him you “know” people who felt the way he did when they were his age. Anger and disappointment with people who don’t live up to their stated ideals, who don’t move the country forward fast enough, who take support of idealists like him for granted.
But ask him to remember that every human has flaws and moreso for every politician. And they have to make tradeoffs because the world is complicated and it’s changing all the time.
We can and should disagree with our leaders when they do things we don’t like. But the election choice is always: is this person and party – on balance – going to make things better, or going to make them worse? Is my vote going to make things better, or make things worse?
And lots of us learned that a 3rd party is not an option in 99.999% of cases in the USA. Have him ask himself why there aren’t legitimate 3rd party candidates that get traction in state and local elections. In the USA, it’s because everyone knows that either an R or a D is going to win. You either vote to make things better, or you’re enabling monsters to make things worse.
Part of growing up is learning how to make difficult choices and figuring out how one’s beliefs fit in one’s society. “If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice…”
==
Having kooky ideas is part of growing up for a lot of us. :-/ Help him to grow out of it, but don’t kick yourself if he doesn’t for a long time (if ever).
Hang in there.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
That’s good. Don’t engage in the merits.
FWIW, I’ve never had kooky ideas.
gene108
@Barbara:
What’s true or real is always a bit subjective. This is why people can believe certain lies that reinforce their beliefs.
I don’t think this divergence on what constitutes reality really kicked off until Bush & Co started gaslighting Americans to support the Iraq War, and continued gaslighting Americans about how well it was going.
Between the 2008 economic collapse showing the holllowness of supply side economics, and the election of a black man as president, some people decided to embrace fantasy over reality.
Their world view had been shattered.
StringOnAStick
@Baud: Thank you. He’s just as doctrinaire as a Stalinist in 1950 or a MAGAT today, and saying that to him would enrage him. His mom is stuck helping him clean out his apartment so he can move, and she liked the ideas I mentioned and will try them, but she figures only maturity and getting his ass kicked in law school in 2 years will work, and hopefully, especially another Capital Hill job before this fall and voting happens. He’ll be voting in D.C. so it’s not like it won’t go blue without him. His mom, my close friend gets very wound up over repro rights and the risk of fascism here and was planning to bug out for Portugal until they elected a right wing government, likely due to all the social changes from their country being overrun with expats and driving up cost of living, taking over the social spaces (in the eyes of the locals, not sure how true that perception is), etc. She’s ready to stand and fight, finally.
Ruckus
@schrodingers_cat:
The trump show has been going on for a lot longer than 8 yrs. And the reality is that it wasn’t any better decades ago even thought it was more contained and far less public. At the family business we used to get Forbes magazine, and SFB would be in there occasionally, always about something stupid he said or did, or with his dear old dad, the NYC slumlord, who left SFB with $400 million.
StringOnAStick
@Another Scott: Very wise, I will pass that on!
Baud
@StringOnAStick:
The mom is right to be upset about her son. This isn’t a game. There’s no credibility to be had in consciously sitting out the election.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Thank you!
rikyrah
@Baud:
@StringOnAStick:
Absolutely no lie on that.
You know how I feel. I’d hurt his feelings.
Telling him that THE BASE of the Democratic Party is who rejected Vermont Jesus TWICE.
And, that it’s nice to know that he’s ok with every woman being treated like a raped 10 year old, complete with no body autonomy. That he’s cool with that HERE, in the United States of America.
rikyrah
FactsLivesMatter![]()
(@Facts0601) posted at 5:25 PM on Thu, Jan 18, 2024:
Leftist: Biden’s done nothing the last three years!
Democrat: False. Here’s a list of what he’s accomplished.
Leftist: Biden is responsible for bad policies in my state!
Democrat: False. Your Republican state government is.
Leftist: Stop talking down to me!
Every. Time.
(x.com/Facts0601/status/1748124396944801847?s=02)
Baud
@rikyrah:
♥️
rikyrah
Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) posted at 5:34 PM on Tue, Nov 07, 2023:
BREAKING: This Senate Democratic Majority has now confirmed 100 female judges and 150 total federal judges with President Biden!
(https://x.com/SenSchumer/status/1722034759621124163?t=NLslPwbCzYOkCg7TEFC-AA&s=03)
LAO
Hats off to the prosecutors, Michael Cohen has been a much stronger witness on direct than I ever imagined he would be. I’m sure he’ll be something of a train wreck, behavior wise, during cross examination. But he’s going to be a difficult witness to cross.
I wish I had a better sense of how the jury is experiencing his testimony.
Baud
@LAO:
👍
Thanks for your insights.
rikyrah
@Baud:
Ask him how many more Aileen Cannon’s he’s willing to see the Orange Menace appoint.
4 years of right-wing Federalist Society judges.
Hasn’t he seen the damage that original set during Trump’s term have caused?
rikyrah
EVERYTHING (@Everything1_we) posted at 6:38 AM on Sun, May 12, 2024:
Introverts disappear in silence after being hurt because they know that hurting them back will not heal them. They need a long silence and disconnection from everything to process their emotions, thoughts, and take further steps for their healing.
(https://x.com/Everything1_we/status/1789621056128664045?t=GmfLr3tiUrOewUVQqECl1A&s=03)
Kay
@StringOnAStick:
I’ve been saying this for a while but the bigger drift away from Biden is among Right leaning and centrist Democrats:
That’s the NYTimes swing state poll, which really isn’t predictive. It had Biden winning Michigan by ten in June of 2020, so wildly wrong there. To me it doesn’t matter which direction it’s wrong in – wrong is wrong.
I do have concerns about the trend in these polls , which is what I look for, but the Right leaning Dem bleed doesn’t get enough attention, IMO.
rikyrah
Karun (@karunpal) posted at 6:20 AM on Sun, May 12, 2024:
Introverts are kind souls, but if you piss them off, they’ll ignore your whole existence. They love. They care. They reciprocate. But some people take advantage of their kindness. Over and over again. But once they’ve had it, they don’t revenge, they just disappear in silence.
(https://x.com/karunpal/status/1789616618575651130?t=Vz5N0hQ167uqtfgdIld-Rg&s=03)
Baud
@Kay:
Strange definition of moderate and conservative.
ETA: Anyway, doesn’t help String’s friend.
Another Scott
@Baud: +1
Cheers,
Scott.
Gravenstone
@LAO: Auditioning for the VP sweepstakes?
MagdaInBlack
@rikyrah: Yup. When we’re done, we’re done. *poof* gone.
Kay
@Baud:
Agree. But they’re really expressing a preference on direction – they want change that goes Right.
I see this where I live in my local Democratic group – disatisfaction that comes from the Right of the Party. They’re a little more of a threat than the youngsters because they have better turnout, but I think if you scratched some of the AA and Latino drop off you would find it’s from the Right of those groups, not the Left. I think Right leaning defectors are generally undercounted on Balloon Juice.
trollhattan
@brantl: I wonder? I mean, hear me out, what if she can rotate her eyes independently?
PaulWartenberg
Cohen is the Lebowski rug. He’s tying the whole room together.
Baud
@Kay:
Probably so. Right leaning defectors are less likely to be in our faces about it, and we’re less likely to believe they care about harm to others. I’d be happy if we treat all defectors equally — with contempt spoken of in quiet rooms.
West of the Rockies
@schrodingers_cat:
You are not alone. Trump is many, many bad things, but BORING is way up there. How his supporters can still love his whiny, pissy, stupid presentation is unfathomable to me.
Soprano2
@Barbara: I feel exactly the same way – supporting TFG finally exposed their moralism as completely empty. They only use it to bash those they don’t like.
Bill Arnold
@schrodingers_cat:
I track the news.google.com sub-categories in tabs for news like this. The tabs can get updated for days or longer. The coverage is pretty broad when you select “Full Coverage” on Indian news categories, where broad at least means many media voices. For instance, Full Coverage – India votes in fourth phase of election
ETA I see that the subcategory name changed at the link, but it is the same topic.
Baud
@Kay:
Given how well Ohio is doing under Biden, the idea of defectors there is insane and reflects a deep pathology in the populace.
Kay
@rikyrah:
I don’t think appeals to harm reduction will work for young people. They’re famously and notoriously immune to those appeals. It’s why their car insurance is 4X that of older drivers and we have an entire juvenile justice system predicated on they fact that they’re impulsive and reckless :)
They’re not risk averse or risk avoidant, not because they’re heartless or “privileged” but because they’re young.
wjca
It would be so fitting if
Hey, a guy can dream.
Soprano2
@Kay: Maybe these are the “normies” Bill Fucking Maher claims to represent (Yeah, a guy who’s a wealthy comedian for decades claimed to represent the normal middle. LOL). He claims they’re fed up with Democrat’s “wokeness” and are tired of “hating half the country”. I wonder if any interviewer or guest has ever asked him if he realized that many of the MAGA’s also “hate half the country”. Maher always makes it sound like that only goes one way. He’s a captive of “old white guys are the normal people” syndrome. I think to a certain extent all of us think what we believe is what most normal people believe, but you have to be pretty arrogant to be a wealthy comedian and claim to represent working class white people.
Anonymous at Work
@PaulWartenberg: And the best way to untie it is TFG on stand. Prosecution aet expectations perfectly to bolster his credibility by lowering everyone’s opinion of him in advance.
“Sure is a lot of crimes you committed” runs into “I had one client since 2006” and “I did them on TFG’S behalf.”
Baud
@Soprano2:
It’s why the corporate and social right is strong. They know others will cave.
cain
@Kay: and who could blame them? I mean this economy is good – but it’s still very expensive and wages don’t match economy. So of course, they look at the things they are forced to pay on – eg taxes, education, and whatnot.
I don’t know what the right policy choice here for address this.
Eyeroller
@Baud: The Firefox “Pocket” article recommender just suggested to me an article from the LA Times, that I didn’t read, with a headline like “Arizona’s Economy is Booming, but Biden Struggles for Credit”
Kay
@Soprano2:
I hope so because that hasn’t panned out in actual elections. Anti wokeness has thus far been a big loser other than to aging comics and NYTimes employees.
To me it’s obvious because of this in my county – 45% Obama to 25% Biden. Now, that 20% were not flaming liberals – they were Right leaning Dems who either stayed home or flipped from Obama to Trump.
Baud
@cain:
I can blame them.
catclub
@Kay: They’re not risk averse or risk avoidant, not because they’re heartless or “privileged” but because they’re young.
I read a book that had the phrase “homeostasis of risk.” It suggests that if you feel too safe you will up your risk behavior to get to you ideal level.
Now I wonder if there is such a homeostasis over a lifetime.
Conversely, If you want to make drivers safer, rather than install airbags, put a spike in the middle of the steering wheel pointed at them. It encourages one to drive VERY safely.
Kay
@Soprano2:
Jerry Seinfeld genuinely baffles me. I don’t think he watches tv. My grown kids love Abbott Elementary, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia and Curb Your Enthusiasm. These are funny shows! Someone should tell Jerry Seinfeld about them. Do they mean we have to watch THEM, just aging white males? Because we’re watching other funny people!
smith
@wjca: It was reported that the first E. Jean Carroll jury had one member who was MAGA, and he voted with the rest against the Defendant.
cain
@cain: The true problem is who do these centrist / right leaning Dems are going to? Surely, they don’t think Republicans are the solution given the kind of laws. If the Dems are doing DEI stuff ,the Republicans are doing much worse in that because most of that doesn’t need new rules – just enforcement. The GOP on the other hand are passing specific laws especially against women. That’s going to be hard for them to shift to a competitor so to speak.
cain
@Baud: Sure – not keeping things in perspective and voting for anti-Democracy is something we can blame them for.
Kay
@catclub:
If you could reliably say to an 17 year old “dont do this or something bad will happen” and they would listen the whole juvenile court system would close. It’s the whole ballgame! It’s what every parent of teenagers complains about. And it’s NOT, actually, based on income or “privilege”. 90% of my risk taking youths are poor.
Anonymous at Work
@smith: What I’ve read is that most jurors that make it to jury DO take it seriously. Any “TFG is the Second Coming” will be screened or removed for lying.
Baud
Right leaning Dems can act to make sure airlines screw them over.
Martin
Sounds like Cohen understands the mission.
He can return to trolling and scamming people out of money tomorrow.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@catclub:
That works great until they get into an accident that’s not their fault and that they couldn’t avoid, at which point the safety measure becomes the thing that killed an innocent kid.
TBone
This is a good roundup 😆 including Rip Von Stinkle trying to camouflage the fact that he’s sleeping through a lot of this again today (I think he’s in a sedative stupor). The flaming clowns doth protest!
Mueller She Wrote:
This compilation of whining is awesome:
digbysblog.net/2024/05/13/coordinated-whine/
Baud
@cain:
Also, pretending that the economy is bad, especially considering where Biden started from.
ETA: Also, too, crime is out of control and we’re being invaded by immigrants.
schrodingers_cat
@Bill Arnold: The Google feed has 3 official BJP Twitter accounts as news sources
@rikyrah: Yep that’s been my experience too.
Kay
@catclub:
They sort of HAVE to be risk tolerant, right? To launch as adults they have to take a lot of risk. If they were risk averse they would never leave the nest.
Ruckus
@Baud:
FWIW, I’ve never had kooky ideas.
ARE YOU SURE?
Bill Arnold
@StringOnAStick:
He’s not informed; he is gullible and willfully ignorant.
Just the difference between Biden’s and Trump’s positions on global heating mitigation are the difference between hundreds of millions of humans (mostly darker skinned) dying, and not dying. Thousands of species extinctions, including some megafauna. Mass global human turmoil and migration, that will result in major armed conflicts, which may go thermonuclear.
And the list goes on.
That person’s sense of self-worth will shatter over the next decade or two as reality stomps hard on it[1], regardless of the results of the 2024 USA elections, but it will shatter a lot harder if he helps elect D.J. Trump.
[1] Some tech-related disruptive crises in that timeframe/near future as well.
Kay
@Baud:
I’m with you. If labor fucks this up unions deserve to die. They committed suicide.
They will never get a better labor President. Not ever. They will have shown politicians that it doesn’t matter at all and no one has to court that vote.
MagdaInBlack
@TBone: Interesting to see Tuberville going after the jury now. The radio host I listen to on morning drive predicted we would see his surrogates doing the attacking, to get around the gag order.
Bill Arnold
@schrodingers_cat:
Yeah, it does. I don’t know how they rank twitter feeds in their news-categorization automation; maybe high follower counts? I generally just ignore those.
Geminid
@Kay: Besides conservative Democrats, there were probably some Independents among the voters who went from Obama to Trump. That group runs around 32% of the Virginia electorate.* They may be fewer in Ohio. That’s what comes to my mind when the NYT talks about “Dem-leaning” voters.
What you said at #151, about defectors from the right being undercounted on Balloon Juice, could be because Independents tend to be ignored here except as a group to be scorned.
*Virginia does not register by party so I use self-identification numbers from the Wason Center’s polls of registered Virginia voters. Those typically show Independents in the 31-33% range.
zhena gogolia
@Barbara: Except cats’ eyes are beautiful.
Cacti
I saw that Hillary took time to make a media appearance to wag her finger at the antiwar student protesters and call them ignorant.
From the bottom of my heart old warmonger lady: STFU.
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: I have a different word for it than interesting. It should be an impeachable offense.
Villago Delenda Est
@TBone:
Ron Johnson is going to have to seriously up his game.
Jeffro
I cannot express how utterly WEIRD it is that Republican Senators are showing up at the felony trial of an ex-president to try and show the world their…their loyalty to a lifelong fraud/tax cheat/abuser? Their complete lack of shame? Their contempt for the justice system?
I mean it is WEIRRRRRRD. “Here, let me, a Senator from Ohio come and sit in a New York courtroom as a show of support…for a guy accused of dozens of felonies after paying off a mistress to keep quiet and trying to write those payments off as a business expense”
Here’s how weird it is: try and picture any other ex-president in U.S. history (especially a Dem one) on trial for the same crimes…and then try to picture which U.S. Senators would show up and sit in the audience in support. You can’t.
Villago Delenda Est
@Cacti: I wonder what the fuck she’s talking about here. I think the pro-Palestinian protesters have a pretty good grasp on what has been going on in the apartheid state of Israel over the past 50 odd years. Fundamentally, this is two groups of people fighting over the same land, and all the resources affiliated with it (particularly water). Israeli actions in the West Bank have been pretty much literal scorched earth.
gene108
@StringOnAStick:
I feel like a lot of the far left, in this country, regardless of age think there’s “one weird trick” to turning America into a Scandinavian democratic socialist utopia, and once they succeed everyone will love this new America.
They don’t sweat the details about going from here to there, because they feel they are obviously right.
@Kay:
From what I’ve read, drop off in Hispanic votes is from the Right.
There are a lot of groups that are part of the Democratic coalition because Republicans have been leaning into the racist vote for so long, but are conservative on many social and economic issues.
Democratic politics used to vary more based on the region that elected Democrats, but Democrats seem to have coalesced into a general agreement on core party principles like transgender rights, reproductive freedom, gay marriage, raising the minimum wage, etc.
The real challenge Democrats broadly face is which group in the coalition gets thrown under the bus to appease disaffected voters in other groups, who think the other people in the coalition get outsized attention while they are ignored.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Kay: That’s a good point. And the prickliness of adolescence means parents can let them go more easily. If they stayed as sweet as younger children, you’d want to hang onto them forever
Mr. Bemused Senior
Their Blind Ambition.
Robert Trimble
@LAO: Vance is clever enough to push Trump’s “worst instinct” buttons. Vance is also positioned, as a Senator from Ohio, to actually provide important votes in the upcoming election.
And Vance is probably a bigger sociopath than Trump. And Trump will instinctively recognize Vance’s character defects – defects that Trump possesses and relishes.
The symbiotic relationship they would develop as President and Vice President should alarm us all. Vance is a lawyer and would-be venture capitalist. Thus, he already allied himself with the worst instincts of the corporate/power-hungry underbelly of America.
Cacti
@Jeffro: It’s a cult.
Start from that frame of reference and everything else makes sense.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Not ever ever ever.
Haven’t seen a more pro-union President than Biden in decades.
Another Scott
@Villago Delenda Est: It’s from a long “Morning Joe” segment on MSNBC a few days ago. The long windup he gave before he let her talk was that he wanted to talk about things before October 7, 2023. That’s the context, AFAICS. (And if you do a YouTube search for “Hillary Clinton protests” you’ll see that there are demonstrations against her going back years. That’s the context for her comment about having a long history of being protested, I think.)
(I only watched the first minute or so – I can’t take his bloviating.)
As always, beware the ellipsis.
HRC isn’t stupid. If it looks like she’s saying something stupid, it’s because someone is intentionally removing the context.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@Mr. Bemused Senior: do they think that they’ll be the ones to inherit trumpov’s MAGAts? And that this is how they’ll win those mouth-breathers over: by showing up at his trial?
“Vote for me: I sat in one of trumpov’s many courtrooms”
I dunno…maybe they just want to be able to brag about it later on Fox News? I don’t see how it helps them beat all the other slimeballs who will be fighting for power atop the Orange One’s rotting carcass.
hueyplong
Kind of strongly inferring from these posts that Trump is still alive.
Will check in again later for an update.
Eyeroller
@Jeffro: There is some notion that they are auditioning for VP, but I hadn’t heard that Tatertown was on the short list.
Soprano2
@Kay: Yeah, to me the complaint that “the kids don’t have a sense of humor anymore, I can’t play college campuses” actually means “I haven’t done any new material in 30 years but can’t understand why college kids don’t laugh at it”. I heard Maher actually admit this on his last show – he said compiling material for a book he’s writing showed him that he hasn’t changed, it’s the Democratic Party that’s changed. Well yeah, in 30 fucking years things have changed! Why are you stuck in 1994? He thinks J.K Rowling is brave for “standing up to the woke mob”.
Mr. Bemused Senior
“Inherit”? That’s how they got elected in the first place. Without those votes could Vance get elected dog catcher? Tuberville, maybe, Vance never.
prostratedragon
@schrodingers_cat: I have not. The news is a crowded place theses days, but they could give a better overview; I mean, a billion people and all. Has Amanpour talked to anybody?
TBone
@Jeffro:
crooksandliars.com/2024/05/jd-vance-attacks-judge-merchans-daughter
Cacti
@Another Scott: “They don’t know very much at all about the history of the Middle East, or, frankly, about history in many areas of the world, including in our own country,”
Her exact words.
HRC isn’t stupid. Snide and condescending at times? Yes and yes.
Geminid
@TBone: J.D. Vance sounds like he wants to be Trump’s VP pick. He might be, too.
Gretchen
@rikyrah: I’ve been wondering why Hogan hasn’t been blamed for the shipping changes that he pushed that caused the bridge collapse. Maybe they didn’t want to bring it up during the primary and are saving it for the general? That seems like a potent issue.
Sister Golden Bear
@Kay:
@Kay:
Genuine question. What sort of right-ward changes do they want? Abortion/pregnancy care restrictions? People like me not existing in public — or at least not having equal rights? Those people knowing their place?
And how many positions/folks in the big tent are they willing to toss aside?
I’m not being snide, I’m just genuinely curious about what you’re seeing from these people in your neck of the woods.
Another Scott
@Cacti: Meh.
Watch the whole thing if you want the context (9:02).
Have fun.
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
@TBone:
What a good little
Nazisoldier he is for his precious Trump.Not only does Vance have no moral compass, he thinks north is a Liberal Conspiracy.
Cacti
@Another Scott: Happy I voted against her unrepentant Iraq War voting arse in 2008.
gene108
@Baud:
Price levels haven’t come down to pre-pandemic levels. If your pay hasn’t kept up with the increases in food, automobile prices, and housing costs, things aren’t great.
I don’t have a solution.
The economy is good by most measurable standards, but the rising tide hasn’t lifted all boats.
zhena gogolia
@Geminid: He’s my top pick but I think Borglund, or whatever his name is, is more likely because more nondescript.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud:
FTFY
Scout211
Sure Lurkalot
@TBone: The “Soros-funded” epithet is so ridiculous. Can’t he find a better anti-Semitic barb by now? Shit, he’s a 39 year old Bill Maher who can’t change his material. 90% of Trumps mouth breathers have no idea who George Soros is, it’s all a Pavlov’s dog trick.
Harrison Wesley
@PaulWartenberg: So we’re waiting for somebody to pee on him?
O. Felix Culpa
@StringOnAStick: Can confirm that foreigners buying up real estate and driving up prices and consequently driving locals out of desirable areas is a reality in Portugal. It’s causing a lot of resentment.
Splitting Image
@West of the Rockies:
Because they are all as whiny, pissy, and stupid as he is.
Every grudge they have is one that they have hung on to for decades, and which they have never, ever stopped complaining about. Every problem they complain about is something they have never been interested in finding a solution for.
Bitch, whine, moan, repeat.
Jeffro
He might indeed, god help us all.
I think a while back, I said “Noem, Stefanik, or Britt”. I think Noem is toast and Stefanik will do her thing for trump regardless of whether he puts her on the ticket or now.
My updated short list for VP now is “Britt, Vance, or Burgum” (or, replace Burgum with anyone with oodles of $$$ and tight connections to RWNJ billionaires)
Scout211
@Geminid:
My money is still on Vance, it has been since the veepstakes began. But Burgum is my runner-up right now.
Scout211
I’m in agreement with many of the jackals here. It is highly unlikely that he will pick a female.
hueyplong
@Scout211: If either Thiel or Burgum pays Trump’s legal fees and judgments, then that should decide the VP issue. Why should the VP office be any less for sale than the country as a whole under Trump control?
The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion
“Why should the VP office be any less for sale than the country as a
whole under Trump control?”–FTFYScout211
Exactly. I assumed it was for sale from the beginning. Plus, there is a VP loyalty test going on before our very eyes right now.
$$$ + loyalty = VP nomination!
Roberto el oso
I think it’s likely to be Vance. And because Vance said a few mildly anti-Trump things early on, he will be the ideal 2nd to Trump because he’ll have to do some sort of humiliation tour in which he explicitly disavows those earlier heresies and grovels to prove he’s now a true believer, thereby stripping away any final shreds of dignity and earning the right to be Toady Numero Uno.
rikyrah
@Gretchen:
Not an issue in GOP Primary.
For the General Election? Absolutely.
Also, Maryland has put abortion rights on the ballot. That definitely has to be an issue.
Bill Arnold
@Cacti:
Trump withdrew the USA from the Paris accords, and damaged humanity’s mitigation responses to global heating.
You voted for hundreds of millions of human deaths due to global heating.
Trump also withdrew from the JCPOA, but so far that’s only killed thousands (thought it might result in a regional nuclear war); he also came very close to a shooting war with Iran with his ordering of an assassination of a top member of Iran’s government.
Trump also withdrew from the INF (intermediate range nuclear forces) treaty; this withdrawal increases the risk of thermonuclear war.
Harrison Wesley
@Bill Arnold: I’m pretty sure Trump wasn’t elected in 2008.
Mousebumples
@Scout211: if he does, I figure it would be Ivanka. Just think – the campaign signs could just be TRUMP 2024. Great for the malignant narcissist.
Kay
@Cacti:
patrick II
@Spanky:
They have no choice. They have no case and are doing desperate things to make one.
geg6
@Sister Golden Bear:
FWIW, I live in an area in Southwestern PA that is very similar to where Kay lives. I am active in local Dem politics. I do not see this problem here. I blame it on Ohio. Ohio is becoming WVA IMHO.
JoyceH
I don’t think Trump COULD choose a woman for VP. He might understand the reasons why it makes sense, he might agree with that, he might even intend to select a woman, but I don’t think he could physically say the words. His misogyny is BEYOND bone deep, it’s a huge part of what he is.
Bostondreams
@Bill Arnold: They said 2008, not 2016..
thruppence
Unfortunately, I think a sizable amount of Trump support is “Prices were lower under Trump; if Trump is president again prices will go down”. You can not convince them otherwise. This is bad, Biden is president, it’s his fault. Thinking voters are seldom the majority.
Geminid
@rikyrah: The container ship story might not be clear cut. If the Democratic legislature went along, that muddies the water some.
The Democratic opponent may not want to come out against big containerships anyway because it’s an economic issue. A better approach might be to highlight the lack of precautions- requiring extended tugboat assistance, installation of “dolphin” barriers etc. “Governor Hogan knew the dangers, but he let Marylanders down anyway.”
catclub
And we hope they never will, that would only happen with a massive depression. Those prices are not coming back.
Kay
@Sister Golden Bear:
I think it’s cultural in the sense that they feel things are out of control, so not any specific “social issue”.
I just don’t think it’s up for debate that we lost some Right wing Dems in rural and white places. Its just numbers. If you go from 45% to 25% you lost 20 points somewhere and since they’re rural and white I HIGHLY doubt they’re upset about Biden not defunding the police or Gaza.
zhena gogolia
@Harrison Wesley: Yeah, I was about to unload on Cacti too and then saw his loophole.
JPL
@zhena gogolia: My guess is Stefanik because trump’s ego is big enought to think it could help him carry NY state.
different-church-lady
@Baud: Authentic city gibberish.
smith
@JPL: She’s not nearly hot enough. This is a guy who doesn’t like to have pictures taken next to his daughter Tiffany bcause he thinks she’s too fat. How many times would he have to stand next to Stefanik?
Kay
@Sister Golden Bear:
I’m helping with a Pride event on the courthouse square on 6/1 so I’ll let you know. We’ve never had one here before so I’m really interested in what I hear. The organizer went to high school here and she’s well-liked so we’ll see if that helps. I’m doing a Dem booth at the culmination of the parade route with my friend Michelle.
Kay
@Sister Golden Bear:
Their children, especially their male children, are not doing well and some of them attribute that to liberalism – that they don’t have a work ethic, drug use, have children outside of marriage, are reckless with money, etc.
I completely get their panic at the lack of a work ethic or really ambition in their children – I was raised exactly the same way – it’s a huge part of their identity, “hard working”. My grown children, however, work (so far – 1 to go) so I don’t think it’s “liberalism” that is causing these boys to fail.
CaseyL
@cain: The GOP-leaning Dems strike me as very similar to the people who became known as “Reagan Democrats.”
Same reasoning, too: Democrats were “giving too many rights” to minorities and women, and taxes were “too high.”
The other slam against Carter was that he was too easy on the USSR; Reagan promised to turn up the heat on the Cold War. A promise he did indeed keep, and thus ushered in a decade of cold-sweat fears of a nuclear holocaust.
What’s funny is that the Right is all about kissing Putin’s ass, now that the USSR/Russia is no longer “communist,” but a properly Christofascist Oligarchy. All the stuff the Right said was horrible when Commies were doing it is just fine now that fascists are doing it.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Blame liberalism when they live in a Red County in a Red State?
THAT is their environment. Not California or New York or Detroit.
smith
@Kay: The lack of ambition could more readily stem from the kids accepting right wing propaganda about white males losing their status to the extent they can no longer get a fair shake. Why bother, if women and Those People get all the advantages?
cain
@gene108:
I think this is more to do with the younger generation of all races supporting these things. The emerging demographic is much more liberal than the previous generations and the current set of immigrants.
The GOP is the party of rich assholes, and those assholes only see immigrants as low wage earners to be exploited. If the GOP moved even a little towards the center we would be in deep shit because I know those coming from catholic countries tend to be quite a bit conservative and the white folks coming from Europe likely lean more socialist.
smith
@rikyrah: And of course, the kids who do make it have already taken off for California or New York, leaving behind the ones with no ambition.
cain
@O. Felix Culpa:
They need to do what Ireland did which is to institute a “you need to be 2-3 generation Irish to get land” otherwise, you’re just going to get land speculators showing up buying everything – they are already doing that here.
Gin & Tonic
@Cacti:
Is she wrong?
cain
@rikyrah:
This is what pisses off the young because it’s bad policy supported by the older generations who are voting Republicans. The older generations continue to talk about “not working hard” or whatever other nonsense – I think a lot of that is fueled by Fox News.
Fox News and right wing outlets have been a disaster for this country.
I’m curious to see what pivot they are going to do for Millennials since they can’t talk about the ‘good old days” – there was never any good old days – so what resentment are they going to do that aligns with what rich people want?
Bill Arnold
@Harrison Wesley:
Oh oops. Mental autocorrect read that as 2016. (The “hillary the hawk, donald the dove” stuff.)
Sorry Cacti, iff you voted for Clinton in 2016.
Villago Delenda Est
@thruppence: As Adlai Stevenson noted back in the 50s.
Harrison Wesley
@cain: Florida is already trying to make real estate sales to Chinese nationals illegal.
cain
@Gin & Tonic:
She ain’t wrong. That said, we don’t need to know much to see that Israel’s actions are deplorable.
But protestors also need to keep one eye on what’s going on here policy wise. The Palestine story has a clear Good/Bad kind of thing that it’s nice and easy like the caffeinated drinks they like to consume. But policy has always been difficult and as someone else said they all seem think that there is this “one trick” that you just can wave your arms.
It’s interesting that they think that we should perform American exceptionalism while also decrying it.
scav
@Gin & Tonic: Shit, that characterizes most Americans of any age.
cain
@Harrison Wesley:
They can easily route around it.
cain
@cain: I would also add that real estate is high not so much because of Chinese nationals, which I am sure they are a part of the problem but also hedge funds and equity firms who are buying up real estate.
There needs to be federal policy that forbids large scale purchasing of homes and turning them into rentals. Hell, they need to stop doing that for healthcare (vet clinics), and various other things as well. Not everything should be changed into an index.
geg6
@Kay:
Seems to me that bad parenting would have the most effect on creating their druggie, lazy kids.
Harrison Wesley
@cain: I agree,although it may just be the remnants of my younger lefty self that view private equity as piracy rather than free -market economics.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@rikyrah: @Kay:
There is a widespread cultural view that if people can be lazy, they will. Anything that makes people’s lives easier is seen as discouraging work and self-sufficiency. So any policies and discussion of student load forgiveness, income supports, and other financial supports for poor people is seen as disincentivizing work. If people aren’t ‘hardworking’ they don’t have an identity or the ability to support a family, leading to the breakdown of society. Their views are 180 degrees opposite of the Bernie folks
I’ll add they don’t have the same contempt for government financial supports to business, because it supports ‘work’.
geg6
@Gin & Tonic:
She is exactly right. I work with young adults all day, every day. On a college campus. They have little knowledge of American history or world history and what they have is the Reader’s Digest condensed version they got in high school, which leaves out almost everything truly important for understanding the world. It’s not their fault, precisely, but they are ignorant none the less.
Another Scott
[ womp, womp ]
(via MuellerSheWrote)
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Kay:
They shouldn’t look at the dating apps then which is filled with folks wanting to do open marriages – I see a lot of GenXers and Millennials. Drug use? Cannabis use is completely normalized here in the west coast. I do agree that fentanyl is a problem – but who the hell sells a product that kills your buyer? Worst business plan ever.
Sometimes I read a lot of reddit, and I see a lot of people who are having children while only in a gf/bf relationship and are ok with it. Hell, a lot don’t even want to have kids – too expensive.
Tony Jay
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Except billion-dollar inheritances, lives lived within a network of incestuous establishment connections, and enough high-power legal representation to ensure that laws are something that apply to other people.
Those are character building. Legit!
The Thin Black Duke
Yeah, I know Life Is Complicated, but one of the unambiguous political realities I’ve seen in my life is that whenever a Republican is in the White House, things get worse. Always. It shouldn’t be that hard for other people to figure it out.
TBone
@Another Scott: 👍
cain
@geg6: I’m hoping that they at last ChatGPT that history and at least go down the rabbit hole to know what is going on there.
Personally, I feel like universities could react by having everyone sign up for a history course about the levant. People think history is boring but I find history to be so absolutely fascinating because it challenges what you think is common wisdom bout whatever country.
smith
@The Thin Black Duke: Things don’t get worse for mobster-oligarchs, and it is they who own and control corporate media. Thus the wide acceptance of the canard that Republicans are always better for the economy than Democrats.
cain
@The Thin Black Duke:
I think a lot of conservatives just go to sleep when a GOP is in charge.
zhena gogolia
@The Thin Black Duke: It’s as simple as that.
Soprano2
@smith: I think this is more it; they think they’re automatically supposed to get the best of everything and be successful, like TFG, and when they aren’t they decide the deck is stacked and it’s not worth it to even try.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Tony Jay:
I don’t think they really care as long as the leader stops liberal policies. They are more worried about their own communities which are a mess. A lot was made of the studies that showed Trumpies were mostly affluent. People seemed to gloss over the fact that a lot of them were affluent people who lived in communities that were in decline. Opioids, meth, and brain drain have been terrible for rural communites. I think if it weren’t for Fox and racism, they would be able to see the parallels with white flight in urban areas.
Soprano2
@Gin & Tonic: Actually, she could be talking about the vast majority of Americans.
Tony Jay
@The Thin Black Duke:
From over here it looks like it is hard, because there exists a truly massive bullhorn industry constantly exhorting the American people to believe that bad things happen because of what Democrats already did, and it’s lucky that Republicans were in power when the bill came due because, otherwise, things would be much, much worse.
You can get away with that for a good long while before enough people realise things aren’t getting better under the Republicans, so they elect Democrats, and the cycle starts again.
The same thing happens over here, but the gaps between fuck-up and recovery are longer because… reasons.
Jay
@cain:
Who’s “history”?
If you teach the whole history you will have everybody screaming “bias”.
And that’s a lot of history. Just a basic overview would be it’s own Major.
Scout211
Exactly. But the problem arises when too many people don’t “figure it out” because Fox News, NewsMax and their Facebook feed tell them how they should “figure it out.” And it’s not close to reality. But they have it figured out!
jimmiraybob
@Sure Lurkalot: “The “Soros-funded” epithet is so ridiculous. Can’t he find a better anti-Semitic barb by now?”
In addition to being the favorite Jew to hate by the right, he is also a staunch advocate of liberal democracy and puts money into his advocacy. Double hate.
TBone
I’m smirking today
digbysblog.net/2024/05/13/don-and-melania/
The Thin Black Duke
@Tony Jay: Remember the brilliant movie They Live?
Roddy Piper needed those special sunglasses who see the aliens who were flooding the news with propaganda.
But people who are marginalized don’t need the sunglasses to know that what the alien talking heads are selling us is bullshit.
The problem is waiting for the cis-het white Christian males to take off their societal blinders.
Harrison Wesley
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: The Villages in Florida have an awfully high rate of VD for a community of well-off white Olds.
Barbara
@Kay: I really struggle with this kind of attitude. When I scratch below the surface, it often amounts to, if a job doesn’t offer me enough money I just won’t work at all. It’s a rejection of the worth that society puts on their work, not a rejection of work per se. Maybe the parents find this to be really frustrating as well, but maybe they also contribute to the dysfunction by seeing everything through the lens of a kind of intergenerational obtuseness on what their kids are facing.
Among other things, did they encourage them to go to school and succeed in an occupation that might also include women? I am so tired of being blamed for everyone else’s dysfunction.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter what bad decision was made 100 years ago that allows people to justify killing children. The point is ‘don’t kill the children’. You don’t need to know the history to argue that.
planetjanet
@Martin: There isn’t just one side killing children. The world is not black and white.
MisterForkbeard
@cain: I had a young adult from the midwest tell me recently that “Illegals get all the advantages” at the same time he was telling me that “they all live 15 people to a 3 bedroom house, like rats”. He got angry and was dumbfounded when I started talking about their huge amount of disadvantages and how they were a big economic advantage to their home states and cities
He’d really internalized all these things. He KNEW they were getting all the goodies he wasn’t able to (because of dems), and also ‘knew’ they were also living in awful, subhuman positions doing terrible work. And they were responsible for his problems.
Tony Jay
@The Thin Black Duke:
Except the bad guys had the smart idea of reinventing the blinders as wraparound mirrored sunglasses to make Cletus Danglegut III and Co look just like those real men from the movies, and the cheat goes on.
opiejeanne
@Spanky:
I dunno, he might be up for it.
Anthony Hopkins babysat my two little nieces while their dad was working as an extra on a movie, and had brought them along for the day. Mr Hopkins fed them soup and sandwiches in his trailer and played board games with them until Tony came back. When the older one told me this story as an adult I expressed mock horror that they were left in the care of Hannibal Lecter. She didn’t know what I was talking about at first. (Kids!)
Scout211
That is a persistent myth.
bjacques
I’m in a mood that String On A Stick’s friend should tell her son that if voters like him stay home and that helps Trump win, she’ll spend his inheritance getting the hell out of the country–who cares where–and he can face what comes after.
Kay
@Martin:
The defensiveness of political leaders on this is really annoying to me. The students don’t like US policy in Gaza. A LOT of people don’t like US policy in Gaza. Gaza polls at 28% or something. The obtuseness of Clinton saying this is somehow due to ignorance is just tone deaf.
The Biden Administration had another resignation today due to US policy in Gaza. Ignorant of world events? How about the nine Democratic Senators? Them too? The 88 House members? All dumber than Hillary Clinton?
To me is is just clear as day that they cannot defend this policy so they are attacking the students. It’s cowardly. Defend the policy in Gaza. Stop looking for a scapegoats, especially scapegoats who were 12 years old in 2016.
Biden’s crankiness when he’s asked about the civilian casualties. I know he doesn’t want to talk about it! Tough shit! He’s President and this is his policy. Defend it, or if he can’t defend it (it’s indefensible), change it. But for God’s sake lets not lash out at 20 year olds. It’s chickenshit behavior.
Martin
@The Thin Black Duke: Yeah, my working theory for why young people are depressed isn’t because of social media or smartphones, per se, it’s that just like kids in the 60s with the widespread adoption of television were exposed to images of a world that didn’t match the narratives their elders were telling them, kids today can peek behind the curtain at a much earlier age and to a much broader degree thanks to the internet.
When my son was 8 he asked me if Santa was real, and we had this talk, and it was 2 hours long, because half an hour into it he was screaming at me “YOU MEAN THIS IS JUST A GIANT CONSPIRACY BY ADULTS AGAINST CHILDREN!”. And yeah, it is. He was really mad. Any hope of believing in God got dashed against the rocks right then and there, as did a lot of his trust in institutions and social narratives. You try and tell him ‘trans people are bad’, he’s not fucking buying that – not after you lied to him about Santa.
I think a LOT of the current generations depression and lack of desire to play the game is because they know we’re just stringing them along. We spent so much time selling the ‘God Bless the USA’, ‘war on terror’, ‘trust the free market’, ‘buy a Taycan and you’ll be happy’ narratives and then the bankers took their house away and nuked their parents 401Ks from orbit in 2008 and Trump burst through them like the fucking Kool-Aid man and revealed it all to be the jingoistic bullshit that it is and Covid just came along to drive the point home that keeping the bars open was more important than keeping people alive. This is the generation that we told needed to get straight As and play 4 sports and be an Eagle Scout and maybe they’d get into a good school and maybe that would lead to a good job and maybe that would keep them from being poor. Maybe.
And after all that trauma they’ve mostly decided that no matter how hard they try, we’re just going to give all of the resources to Elon Musk and whatever hedge fund owns my apartment complex which raises the rent $400/mo every year, simply because they can. If the odds are in the house’s favor, the only way to beat the casino is to simply never enter it. Just don’t play the game.
The game always involved stealing from people of color, but now its kind of anyone. Alabama white baptist minister? We’re going to end his life.
We used to have a reliable system of gatekeeping access to the horrors of our own society that TV, and then the internet tore down. And each time, we demanded that the horrors ended – or at least lessened. But that requires more change than most adults can tolerate, so we fight it all the way. Climate change is this thing that will destroy our children’s future. OTOH, maybe we could tow the boat to the lake this weekend.
Martin
@planetjanet: I never suggested one side was, yet you immediately took a side.
Harrison Wesley
@Scout211: My fault – I rarely let facts get in the way of a good story.
Kay
@Barbara:
I struggle with it too. I say it to my juvenile clients – “at some point you have to work”. They have this idea their parents didn’t work that hard to stay (just barely) in the middle class and it’s not true – their parents really did and do work hard. Part of the reason we have such a manufacturing base here is they were always really good employees. I don’t really know what happened to rural young white men, because it;s really true the girls are more ambitious and…happier. I like boys! I raised three. I want them to succeed. But I don’t know how to fix this.
Martin
@Kay: They’re having two different conversations. The politicians are trying to defend various empires. The kids just want to stop killing people. If the empire requires killing children, then maybe the empire is not worth defending. Maybe the concept of an empire is not worth defending.
We like to talk about how the US values the sanctity of human life. In fact, every country says this. Maybe that’s just a lie we tell as cover for the ways we tolerate if not encourage taking human lives.
But politicians can’t talk about that. They have a job to do.
Barbara
@Kay: The reality is that most people work hard and they always have. The widening disparity in rewards for labor is something to address. But it’s hard to see how hard work is ever going to go away. Or maybe I lack imagination.
Kay
@Martin:
They better get ready because the next round of criticism is not going to come from kids – it’s going to come from experts, who say Israel cannot and will not achieve “total victory” in this war. We’re now going to get objections based on strategy. I knew it was coming when the nine D Senators came out – they don’t just object to the humanitarian catastrophe – they think its a failed foreign policy.
The kid are right and no one who defended this thing will admit it in ten years. It’s a disaster.
Kay
@Barbara:
It bothers me that they can’t seem to get any fulfillment or pride out of work. I really do appreciate it when anyone, in any job, tries hard and seems to care about the quality. I really do respect work. Who told them the only worthwhile work was work where you make a ton of money? If they will take and pass a basic algebra course I can get them trades training, for free. They can make 50-60 a year after 5 or so years, with bennies. They’re not interested.
John Revolta
@Kay: I’m fairly convinced- and some members of the IDF are too- that Bibi et.al. have no foreign policy or theory of victory at all, other than staying in power, and in Bibi’s case, out of jail. And this demands keeping the war going, plain and simple.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Jay: Truth. To really give them the whole story of the Middle East and specifically the Levant you d probably have to go back to either the Crusades or the Romans. Even just starting at the beginning of the 20th century there’s so much to explain. And the complexities would be bound to start some fist fights. No I don t have a college education. I just read a lot.
Parfigliano
@Baud: Fuck college kids feelings.
Ramalama
@StringOnAStick:
This thread is dead I realize BUT Bernie sent out an email specifically armed with reasons why to vote for Biden. I sent it to my cousin who’s a bit older than the Howard student but definitely has the same vibe.
Key quotes from Bernie himself that I sent to my cousin that might resonate some with your friend:
Bernie himself is telling people to vote for Joe Biden. That’s the main point.
Kirk
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: You might have to go back to the Akkadians to actually see the origin of some of the threads of that history.
Sally
@Baud: I thought you ONLY had kooky ideas – disappointed-no-longer-Baud-voter
cain
@Jay:
Ugh, yes – you’re right. There is the Jewish version, the Muslim version, the colonial version – it’s a big mess. You have to somehow show all the biases. It’s possible to show each as a story – some will resonate stronger than others.
Wapiti
@wjca: I read once that you need two holdouts, to reinforce each other. One holdout is likely to tire and cave.
wjca
@Wapiti:
Actually, that’s been my (extremely limited) experience as well. Although it depends, to some extent, on how fanatical the one is. Firefighter who thinks “If he was arrested, he must be guilty of something” — persuadable. Old (white) woman who thinks “all blacks look alike” and therefore a positive ID from a face-to-face undercover drug buy is impossible — not to much.
And yes, I’ve seen both.
AM in NC
@Kay: Dook brain, what can I tell you?
StringOnAStick
@Ramalama: thank you, I will find this email and send it to my friend to send to her son.
Cacti
@Gin & Tonic: Yes. She’s wrong. And has been catastrophically wrong on middle east policy before.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Kirk: yeah, so many threads and groups and cultures, plus religions, water and arable land disputes and everything else, sigh 😔
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Kirk: @EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
dead thread, but here’s some history: Will Zionism survive the war? [WaPo gift link]
Timill
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Romani ite domum…
You can’t omit the destruction of the Second Temple and the subsequent diaspora, otherwise the Jewish creation of Israel is just a bunch of punks seizing someone else’s land because they can.