— bethbramble.bsky.social (@bethbramble.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 12:15 AM
The first U.S. bird flu death has been reported. Louisiana officials say they are not aware of any other cases in their state, and U.S. officials have said they do not have any evidence that the virus is spreading from person to person. https://t.co/HtiVEZsEo4
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 6, 2025
Can’t find the link right now, but I saw a reputable source point out that there have been 500 human deaths due to H5N1… over the past 27 years. Right now, we’re trying to avoid a tipping point where a freshly mutated, more virulent form of the virus achieves reliable human-to-human transmission.
Eyeing Potential Bird Flu Outbreak, Biden Admin Ramps Up Preparedness. The administration is committing an additional $306 million toward battling the virus and will distribute the money before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office.#H5N1 #BirdFluhttps://t.co/S0CN1RALAW
— Ralf P. Loserth (@captainsnackbar) January 3, 2025
I believe a few commentors have asked about this:
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will begin collecting samples of raw cow’s milk #cheese from across the U.S. to test for the presence of #BirdFlu, spurred on by the ongoing outbreaks of H5N1 in multiple states.https://t.co/sSFnrOYBCX
— FarmPolicy (@FarmPolicy) January 3, 2025
Excellent point from @angie_rasmussen. It's impossible to know how bad the #H5N1 #birdflu situation in cows is in the country without info on the number of negative tests. To calculate a percentage you need both a numerator AND a denominator. https://t.co/56x1lGT2J6
— Helen Branswell ???? (@HelenBranswell) January 2, 2025
California Dept of Food & Ag reports that 100 herds in CA have been released from quarantine, having cleared #H5N1 #birdflu infections. Had to go 60 days, have clinical signs gone, then have 3 negative tests 7 days apart.
603 herds still in quarantine. www.cdfa.ca.gov/AHFSS/Animal…— Helen Branswell (@helenbranswell.bsky.social) January 7, 2025 at 9:27 PM
H5N1 not a reason to be terrified. We know a lot about zoonotic flu, have been preparing for it 20 yrs (unlike when COVID began), + we have candidate vaccines, antivirals, diagnostics
Only 3 things can negate this:
policy failures
pandemic denialism
antiscience disinformation https://t.co/vYDVW7EPJd— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) December 29, 2024
1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)
📈1 in 49 people actively infectious
🔥Nearly 1 million daily infections
🎲About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating
🏥300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per weekThe infections… pic.twitter.com/EUaHfVBm5s
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) January 6, 2025
Five years after the start of Covid, we appear to be trying to teach ourselves the lessons of the pandemic the hard way.
— STAT (@statnews.com) January 6, 2025 at 9:40 AM
It is truly wild that it is estimated that more than 20 million people died of Covid and the prevailing vibe is that the world overreacted. That is an astonishing toll! More people died of Covid in the US than in the Civil War. www.pbs.org/newshour/hea…
— Lydia Polgreen (@polgreen.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM
🔹️Forecast to end of January🔹️
The model suggests the peak has already passed, and infections should recede to an extent over the next few weeks. This spring could trend in an unusual way due to the low holiday peak.— JPWeiland (@jpweiland.bsky.social) January 6, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Personal Reflections on Five Years of COVID-19: Dr. Peter Hotez @GENbio https://t.co/IPvou0pKc7
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) January 7, 2025
======
China has shared the most COVID data and research results in the international community, its foreign ministry said, after the World Health Organization repeated its call for more information and access reut.rs/40eeuSf
— Reuters (@reuters.com) December 31, 2024 at 4:57 AM
also that the Wuhan market was owned by a local magnate (through his daughter) with strong ties to Xi Jinping
— BeijingPalmer (@beijingpalmer.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 2:13 PM
As you see from @IHME_UW almost all deaths/DALYs from Covid occurred in countries deprived of Covid vaccines: Africa, parts of S America, Russia, SE Asia. We did our best to provide low-cost vaccine for the world, we reached 100 million, but with help it could have been billions pic.twitter.com/5uKPmtxUk4
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) January 5, 2025
Study from Saudi Arabia:
Data show 7% rate of long #COVID in college students
The results demonstrate that the condition affects young people as well as old, the authors say.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Canadian COVID Forecast Jan 4-17, 2025
CANADA
HIGH (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 265,000-308,450
About 1 in every 126 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~6X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~8X higher… pic.twitter.com/oCMnlWZkX7— Tara Moriarty (@MoriartyLab) January 6, 2025
======
5 things we know and still don't know about COVID, 5 years after it appeared https://t.co/hlp4WztVgR
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 2, 2025
Study: COVID-19 hospital cases, deaths in nursing homes fell sharply after widespread vaccination
Eighty-seven percent of hospitalizations and 89% of resident deaths took place before widespread vaccination.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) January 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Paxlovid tied to lower risk of hospital stay, heart problems, death in adults with kidney disease and #COVID
Under 7% of dialysis patients are current with COVID vaccines, highlighting the need for antivirals for kidney patients, the authors say.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 2:55 PM
A nasal spray prevented 80% of Covid infections; ~300,000 people in China have received it.
[called SA55, a broad spectrum monoclonal antibody, developed by Yunlong Cao, Peking University] www.nature.com/articles/s41…
www.science.org/content/arti…— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 2:59 PM
There is an increased risk of autoimmune diseases after Covid, and 2 constituents of the virome (anellovirus and HHV-6) may help to explain this link
nature.com/articles/s41…
a study of 5 different autoimmune diseases in over 6,300 Japanese individuals— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 10:17 AM
On the heightened risk of autoimmune diseases after Covid erictopol.substack.com/p/the-height…
— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 11:54 AM
======
The biggest failure of the pandemic was that being a right wing crank got grifters money and attention while mainstream professionals got burnt out doing their jobs.
There needed to be a war room doing comms blowing people like Bhattacharya out of the water every time he opened their mouth w/BS.— Clean Observer (@hammbear2024.bsky.social) January 1, 2025 at 8:23 PM
??Don't let RFK's anti-vax idiocy obscure all the other ways he's a threat to public health! Humdinger of a cohesive summary here re his contemptuous call to "pause" infectious disease research.
— Paul Rosenberg (@paulrosenberg.bsky.social) January 5, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Happy New Year to my fellow vaccinated people who made it to 2025
— Adam Gurri (@adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com) January 3, 2025 at 3:10 PM
There is no “plandemic” just conspiracy websites that push all kinds of nonsense to monetize the internet. I guess that’s the business model these days. But it’s damaging for the future of America’s public health. Attached: serious news outlets debunking plandemic conspiracies. https://t.co/8ebZ5Fme6l
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) January 6, 2025
Premature infectious disease of the week: Human metapneumovirus. It’s not ‘novel’; it’s not ‘suddenly getting worse’; and medical authorities are not ‘ignoring it’. HMPV one of the many rhinoviruses that most people experience as ‘just another cold’, but (as with most viral infections) it can be dangerous for the very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised (which, as people do not hesitate to point out, is a category into which an increasing number of us fall). Best guess for the current resurgence is that young kids living under covid precautions hadn’t previously been exposed. Here’s the American Lung Association’s hMPV web page.
What is human metapneumovirus, are cases surging in China, and should we be worried? Experts say the risk of another Covid-like pandemic is low, by @heldavidson https://t.co/mH2xYrJIU4 via @guardian #HMPV
— André Picard (@picardonhealth) January 6, 2025
The main thing to know about human metapneumovirus cases in China is that:
– Respiratory viruses circulate widely in winter
– Wearing an appropriate mask and handwashing reduce spread
– Get your flu/COVID/RSV vaccines as indicated.
The above are things you can control
www.bbc.com/news/article…— BK. Titanji (@boghuma.bsky.social) January 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
On The Road – Elma – St, John’s, Newfoundland, Canada
Baud
I like this new feature.
Jay
Thank you Anne Laurie.
PS, get your pneumococcal vax if you haven’t.
Bupalos
The reason the figure 20 million dead people just got sailed right over is that there are now 8 billion people on the planet, all more tightly bound through trade and communication than just Western Europe itself 250 years ago.
It’s 0.25% of the population. Historically speaking, this just looks like random noise.
If we’re doing “amazing what we can ignore” I’d nominate the fossil fuel climate crisis. That appears to be more intractable, more deadly, and far more historically rare. And we’re still just happily hopping in our cars and jets daily, practically unremarked.
Anne Laurie
@Jay: Thanks — I got mine *before* the pandemic, probably almost 10 years ago, now!
bjacques
@Jay: here in NL, I got my COVID and pneumococcal vax at the same time, in different arms. The only side effect aside from sore arms was that my nose dripped like a leaky faucet for several weeks afterward. I was otherwise OK.
New Deal democrat
Wastewater levels from the original Omicron variant peaked at 23.6 particles per mL. One year later the Holiday peak was 10.99 particles. Last year at this time the peak was 13.23 particles. At this past summer’s peak, it was 8.24.
As of the CDC’s latest update through December 28, there were 4.76 COVID particles per mL. BIobot’s most recent update through December 30 showed about 5.00 particles per ML.
Although a number of States did not report through the Holiday period, meaning the estimates in the gray shaded area to the far fright are likely to be revised higher, It’s likely that the Holiday peak which should occur this week will see something like only about 6.0 particles per mL.
Here are the deaths for each calendar year (keeping in mind that the numbers only begin at the end of March 2020):
2020: 393.0 thousand (9.2 months; 512.6 thousand annualized)
2021: 455.9 thousand
2022: 243.9 thousand
2023: 75.6 thousand
2024: 46.1 thousand
Since the data for the last three weeks of 2024 is only preliminary so far, it is likely that another 1,000 to 1,500 deaths will be added to that total, making it 47,100-47,600 when final.
According to the CDC, deaths from the flu typically average between 12,000 and 51,000 annually. So this year’s total for COVID will be within that range. In fact, for the last 52 weeks of final data through December 7, there were 51,200 deaths – only 200 above the CDC’s average range.
As of the end of 2024, COVID mortality is finally “like the flu.”
David_C
The Covid update here is that I felt well enough to go for a short walk and get ingredients to add to the turkey carcass so I can make soup. It’s been a week since I crashed with Covid. Tested negative on Monday, just finished my Paxlovid course, and am able to work lying down.
Clean Observer makes a good point, but professionals with the right expertise don’t have comms staff. Well, Tony Fauci did and having worked with them, I know they do an excellent job. That being said, even someone with world-class communication skills, like Tony Fauci, couldn’t stem the tide of misinformation—all be got were threats in return.
Did start a genealogy blog, all using my iPad because I didn’t have the strength to sit at a desk. Stay healthy, everyone!
satby
Great round up of information Anne Laurie.
I got the Norovax booster this time (again) because I react less to it and they did reformulate it for the later variant. In case anyone is delaying because they can’t really afford even a day of downtime from the mRNA vax.
narya
@satby: I got it in late November and didn’t even have the Day of Tired I got with most of the others; was glad to be protected over the holidays. They’re a damn miracle.
p.a.
Amazing/not really how many antivaxxers take the “it’s drug companies scamming money” line when they kiss the asses of every other billionaires’ “scamming money” ploys.
Kinda like the “fiscal conservatives” who lurve them some capitalism(tm) but then look at the economy as a zero-sum game, which is actually the opposite of Adam Smith’s vision.
moonbat
Thank you, AL, for this information!
Soprano2
That statistic on the percentage of dialysis patients who are vaccinated for Covid is shocking. John has chronic kidney disease; I made sure he was vaccinated against Covid as soon as he could be – me too
ETA – I had something in December that was probably viral. It wasn’t Covid, but it had a cough, a sore throat for the first few days, and congestion. It hung on for over 3 weeks. I saw a post on FB from someone local asking if other people had it, and described the symptoms I’d been having.
Lyrebird
Thank you Anne Laurie, I gain so much from reading your summaries. That sounds like it might be auto generated, but it ain’t.
Baud
@Lyrebird:
No need to explain. I replaced myself with a Baud AI five years ago. It was a smooth transition.
Soprano2
@Lyrebird: Sometimes I swear I knew more about Covid than the doctor or nurse I was talking to did, because of these updates during Covid! I know I knew a lot more about it than the average person did, so thanks AL for all the hard work.
JMG
I must be an anomaly. I have been Covid-vaccinated 5 times (4 Pfizer, 1 Moderna) and each time the reaction was very mild. I finally got Covid last winter, but it too was very mild. Felt really lousy for a day, then got better day by day for 3-4 days. Primary care doctor didn’t even recommend Paxlovid.. Got last shot in October.
sab
@satby: Thanks for the reminder.
We have a friend with one kidney who almost died a while after he got his first Covid vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna.) They never figured out what made him so sick. He has decided it was the vaccine and hasn’t had one since.
I will be telling him that there is an old-fashioned vaccine (Noravax) available that he should consider.
Fair Economist
Right now bird flu is looking to be more of an economic impact. These egg issues could end up permanent; it’s been around for a while and it’s going away.
p.a.
And will be
Carter’sClinton’sObama’sBiden’sall of the above’s fault.//s
Gravenstone
Have you met our incoming administration?
TBone
Thanks, AL, once again you have expanded the horizons of those able to learn. TIL about the human virome and am fascinated. A teensy tidbit:
nature.com/articles/s41588-024-02022-z
There is yet so much to learn.
Suzanne
@JMG: Your experience matches mine almost exactly.
NotMax
@TBone
“This boy is Ignorance, this girl is Want. Beware them both but most of all beware this boy.”
satby
@Soprano2: RSV, Flu A, even a bad cold?
When I got seriously ill in Dec ’22 it started just as either a cold or respiratory bug; it wasn’t COVID and they didn’t test for RSV. I got increasingly sick over the holidays until I ended up with pneumonia, helped along because I’m asthmatic. I was sick for 8 weeks. Even a minor bug can get you, so do get the pneumonia vaccine and don’t try to be a hero and keep going* if you’re sick. You’ll end up being down longer.
* My mistake at the time, because “it was just a cold”
TBone
@TBone: we need more research, stat.
TBone
@NotMax: AMEN
gene108
@Soprano2:
I do remember my dialysis center testing for Hep B and offering the Hep B vaccine if you tested negative for antibodies. I had a full course of vaccine while on dialysis.
I’m not sure why the uptake of the COVID vaccine is so low. Some of it maybe a lot of dialysis patients are in nursing homes and cannot got to the pharmacy to get vaccinated on their own. Another maybe when you are down because of kidney failure, you might not be thinking beyond basic needs. It’s physically and mentally exhausting.
YY_Sima Qian
For the 1st time since end of ’22, my elder daughter’s kindergarten in Wuhan China has gone back to masking (but not that consistently while in class).
Meanwhile, there has been zero effort at further COVID-19 vaccinations in the PRC since reopening & the exit tsunami, not for the vulnerable, not for the people (such as myself) who might be interested in taking them, not even as a paid for product. Fo figure. Flu vaccines are available for a nominal charge, though.
OTOH, while children’s outpatient clinics & wards are overflowing right now across northern China due to respiratory disease cases (Chinese parents & grandparents are very protective/cautious w/ their young), I have not heard hospitals being stressed by case loads due to adult COVID-19 or any other respiratory disease cases at any point since the re-opening.
bluefoot
I am having post-paxlovid rebound today. Since this is my first-ever time with Covid, I don’t know what to expect as far as how long it’s going to take to recover. Considering how my siblings have recovered, my chances of long Covid are – I hope – low, though one of them developed a bizarre allergy after their last bout with Covid.
When I was in the grocery store prior to the holiday, I saw a new combination home test for sale. I think it was COVID + flu or maybe COVID + RSV? Pretty cool.
SiubhanDuinne
I watched the first clip with Thom Hartmann and then scrolled down a little and saw this gem from Jack Posobiec:
It reads like NYTPitchbot level of satire, but given what an off-the-rails, conspiracy theorist, RWNJ Posobiec is, I’m forced to conclude he wrote it in all seriousness.
Soprano2
@satby: I’ve done the RSV and the pneumonia vaccine. I actually had the pneumonia one when I visited my doctor’s office for my shoulder problem. I think it was a virus that’s going around. That’s why I didn’t go to the doctor. If it had lasted more than a month I would have gone in.
Belafon
@SiubhanDuinne: Jack’s thinking Chicken Pox party.
Soprano2
@gene108: True, part of my battle is to keep my husband’s kidney function good enough that we don’t have to even think about dialysis. The nephrologist’s PA talked to us about dialysis; he told us that for someone with my husband’s condition (vascular dementia) it’s not recommended because it can make other things worse. So it’s a constant battle of getting him to drink more fluid and keep his weight up. I know someday I’ll probably lose the battle, but I’m going to fight it as long as I can.
cain
That’s unfortunate, every country should do its utmost to continue to provide vaccines. Covid is not going to go away and we can easily go back to having this virulent disease spread all over the place, and now of course we have bird flu as well.
It’s funny how the modern age has introduced idiocy like this. The more technology we incorporate the worse we become as a society it feels.
Old Man Shadow
That and it happened relatively slowly and was distributed instead of all at once.
If the entire population of Southern California/Los Angeles County suddenly died, there would be memorials, unity, and demands that the government do everything in its power to prevent such a tragedy again.
But spread the deaths out over time and location and we get the opposite.
bluefoot
@sab: I hope your friend had signed up with v-Safe or reported to VAERS. More data on potential vaccine reactions is good – it helps with advising people and also creating each new generation of vaccines.
Novavax is a good alternative. I know a couple of people who went that route after having more intense than expected reactions to the first Moderna vaccine.
bluefoot
@SiubhanDuinne: That is….impressive. What do people think traditional vaccines ARE?
Early on when the vaccines were introduced, I tried hard to address the reluctance with the vaccine-hesitant I knew. The analogy that got the most traction was comparing vaccines/vaccine response to game tape: You learn how the opposition team plays and learn to defend so that you’re prepared when you meet them on the field/court/whatever. Basically the vaccines are training your immune system similarly.
TBone
@bluefoot: I developed an allergy to whatever (latex?) is in my Dentek mouth guard that prevents teeth grinding at night. Developed a horrid rash on my thighs that was like hives with blisters UGH. No mouth guard, no nasty rash.
TBone
@SiubhanDuinne: JFC
Belafon
@bluefoot: xkcd.com/2425/
SiubhanDuinne
@bluefoot:
Exactly!! The comment on it was something to the effect that the horseshoe has become a circle and anti-vaxxers are now suggesting that we invent vaccines (big paraphrase, but that was the gist).
I like your “training” analogy.
bluefoot
@Belafon: I forgot about that particular xkcd cartoon.
bluefoot
@TBone: Yeah, COVID does weird things to the immune system, and we don’t understand it (COVID, or frankly, the immune system) well enough.
Tangentially: I think it was here on BJ that someone recommended the anime series “Cells at Work” which has returned to Netflix. It’s an nice intro to the circulatory and immune systems all set in a tween universe of cells personified. I wish they had done a better job on the subtitles but as a biologist I still find it fun.
ArchTeryx
As a molecular virologist this fascinates me. The paper is very ambitious, trying to tie together COVID, two of our “native” viruses (we all have them and mostly don’t notice they are there) and autoimmune disease, and does a fair job correlating them. Though I’ve been out of the field too long to tell how compelling the data is. Like most papers, the best interpretation seems to be, “Worth doing further research into it.” The idea that COVID might weaken our immune systems such that our native viruses overgrow, leading to autoimmunity, is a damn interesting idea.
Ohio Mom
@bluefoot: I had rebound from Paxlovid and very slowly recovered — I’m thinking (it’s all a vague memory now) it took about two months before I stopped coughing and got all my energy back.
The second time around, no rebound but still a somewhat slow total recovery. It’s all a crapshoot. Good luck!
TBone
@bluefoot: cool! I took molecular biology but can always use a brush up and anything about immune system is right up my alley, thanks!
TBone
@ArchTeryx: 🎯 I feel like a walking lab experiment.
Ohio Mom
No one is commenting on this?:
“H5N1 not a reason to be terrified. We know a lot about zoonotic flu, have been preparing for it 20 yrs (unlike when COVID began), + we have candidate vaccines, antivirals, diagnostics
Only 3 things can negate this:
policy failures
pandemic denialism
antiscience disinformation”
It’s like he’s describing a Trump administration: failed (or no) policies, denialism, antiscience and disinformation.
Funny, not.
.
David_C
@TBone: Dang. Some people have super-responsive immune systems.
immunology in all its various aspects has been a professional interest of mine for 40 years. it’s all about striking the perfect balance of activation and recovery. Too much activation risks an immediate crisis or long-term tissue damage, but not enough and the “danger” (pathogen, trauma) overwhelms us.
@bluefoot: Just finished my round of Pax (and the chocolate bar I eat to mask the metal-mouth taste). I didn’t get a rebound last time but, like before, I plan to rest before heading back to the office next week in case that helps.
bluefoot
@David_C: Yeah, trying to get back to work this week was a mistake. I hope this doesn’t linger too long.
I found that fruit punch gatorade did a good job with the Paxlovid taste.
TBone
@David_C: my body is on that very trampoline. One day last week, hubby looked at me and said “you’re not swollen today!” That didn’t last long.
Bill Arnold
@Ohio Mom:
I read it a few times, and decided that he was making exactly that point.
Anyway, public health measures including masks and handwashing stopped seasonal influenza (worldwide) for a while, as a side effect of trying to slow down the much more infectious SARS-CoV-2. (There is no other remotely plausible theory.)
Even a more novel influenza should be less infectious than even the original wild strain of SARS-CoV-2.
TerryC
Apologize if this is duplicate post. Just returned from a five-day stay in the Ann Arbor VA. The staff were as usual beyond excellent, Friends: Marry a nurse!
Sadly, new diagnoises (Not a bad play on words there): (1) E. coli (STEC), (2) Human metapneumonia virus, COPD. I feel like shit.