Election day is November 4 and Virginia is more important than ever.
This off-year election gives us the chance to make the Old Dominion state the next Democratic trifecta. Not to mention that Virginia is a bastion of reproductive rights in the Old South.
Balloon Juice peeps have done our part so far.
- helped fund Four Directions in their expansion into Virginia to work with the Native vote there.
- raised funds for two flippable seats in Virginia.
- National Ground Game is the third leg of our stool in Virginia!
Dollars?
- raised over $30,000, plus $40k in matching funds for Four Directions
- raised over $8,000 for Kimberly Pope Adams, who is now projected to win. (fingers crossed!)
- raised over $5,000 for Virgil Thornton, who is on the verge of moving from toss-up to projected win by a very slim margin.
Side note: auction and raffle winners – have you received your quilts?
NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86
GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho…
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social) October 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM
THERMOMETER REMOVED BECAUSE WE HAVE MET OUR GOAL, AND HAVE FULLY FUNDED THEIR ACTIVITIES FOR VIRGINIA. YAY YOU GUYS!
And in late-breaking news, Virginia Democrats are holding a special session tomorrow to draw a new Congressional map that could net us two or three additional seats in 2026.
Jay Jones, running for Attorney General, had a slight lead 4 days ago, but is slipping. He’s a complicated candidate, but he beats the hell out of any Republican. We need the AG in the Democratic column to actively support the new congressional map that could help us make up 2 or 3 of the seats the Rs are trying to steal with their TX gerrymandering.
All of this requires electing Abigail Spanberger for Governor and the Democrats retaining (and expanding) their razor-thin 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. (Senate seats are not up for re-election until 2027).
Let’s talk more about the ground game.
We helped National Ground Game register and turn out voters in Florida’s two Congressional special elections in April.
We had started to raise money for their fun and creative effort to counter-program high profile Charlie Kirk rallies on Virginia college campuses. They were bringing in liberal influencers and Tik Tok celebrities with widespread youth appeal to counter the venom spewed by Turning Point USA (as well as register voters).
For obvious reasons, they needed to pivot in the wake of Kirk’s death. They stepped back temporarily out of respect for the situation and to avoid adding any fuel to the overwrought martyrdom fire. I stopped actively promoting the fundraising to give them time to regroup and make arrangements to get back into Virginia before the election. Nevertheless, to date we have raised $4,225 for Ground Game in Virginia.
And now we’re back in the game – and with our funds, National Ground Game is going back into Virginia! Ground Game has jumped the bureaucratic hurdles to obtain permission to hold a get-out-the-vote event on the campus of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg featuring.
The rally will feature, among others, popular live-streamer and political commenter Destiny, who is sure to be a big draw with the yutes. Although early voting has already started, the event will fire up college voters to turn up at the polls, provide them with late registration information, and sign them up as future volunteers.
So we are funding a big, celebratory Democratic presence on campus, days before the election!!
But wait, there’s more. Ground Game will circulate flyers promoting House of Delegates candidate and challenger Lily Franklin. Lily was highly recommended to us by Good Kim (see below) as an excellent campaigner and top-notch future representative. But Lily was (fortunately) well-financed without us, so we raised funds for Virgil Thornton, hoping for a flip there. Looks like we chose well because that seat has show as a toss-up until just a day or two ago. Anyway, this is our chance for us to help pull Lily Franklin over the finish line, as well.
With so many fingers crossed, it’s hard to type!
The National Ground Game projects a total cost of $6,500 to underwrite this event, which includes permits, insurance, transportation, security, some paid staff, volunteer meals and related expenses. I’ve set our goal at $7,500 because when does anything like this ever come in exactly at, or under budget?
We have a $500 angel in the wings! pat’s Angel Match has been met, thank you!
We can do this TODAY, I hope!
Here’s hoping we can easily raise the additional funds to completely fund this fun and inspiring event.
Things are looking good in Virginia. Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe has predicted a narrow win for BJ-supported candidate Virgil Thornton and a 5-point margin for Kimberly Pope Adams (our “Good Kim”), flipping two Republican held seats (h/t Blue Guitarist). And he gives Democratic challenger Lily Franklin a 61% chance of flipping the Republican seat centered on Blacksburg and Virginia Tech.
There are 5 additional R-held seats projected to be very close – Consider volunteering to phone bank!
What they need are people to virtual phone bank from anywhere, and folks to canvass if you are in range to help with that.
Details at mobilize.us
Watch for a post early next year – and a zoom to meet the National Ground Game folks – to hear about their 2026 plans to resume counter-programming Turning Point rallies and organize stand-alone events of their own. This is creative and exciting stuff, targeted at young voters whose political ideology is still in flux!
No Regrets! That’s the name of the game.
WaterGirl
As always, to be Angel matched, tell us about your donation in the comments, or by email to WaterGirl. Matching up to $50 per person.
pat’s $500 ANGEL MATCH HAS BEEN MET!
WE ARE NOW $1,200 AWAY FROM THE $7,500 GOAL
Dmkingto
In for $100
Scout211
$50 donated for Angel match.
I like this group’s ideas.
NightSky
in for $100. go team
dm
Kicked in $25; added $10/month to National Ground Game in general.
That’s not what I came here to say, though.
We’ve been hearing a fair amount about the approval of Democrats being pretty low (still managing to be more popular than the Republicans, though).
But I’ve been watching the ActBlue numbers (made easy by this website: observablehq.com/@rdmurphy/actblue-ticker-tracker ). And right now, eyeballing the plots (and looking at the table of recent contributions below the plots) ActBlue is taking in money like it was August/September two months before a mid-term, not an October 13 months before a mid-term.
I suppose I could download his data and be more precise than confirmation-biased plot-ogling, but I’m not using a device that supports that.
Scout211
In local news,
SuzieC
In for $50.00.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: Looks like undecided voters broke equally in both directions. That’s interesting.
WaterGirl
@Dmkingto: @Scout211: @NightSky: @dm: @SuzieC:
Big thanks to all of you!
H.E.Wolf
Thank you to WaterGirl, and the current angel, for giving us the opportunity to do something for the Commonwealth of VA!
Can’t spell “Commonwealth” without “common weal”, a good old-fashioned term: “what is shared and beneficial for members of a given community”.
Cheryl from Maryland
One reason Virgil Thornton is pulling ahead is that his GOP opponent is a man with a violent past who now has a restraining order against him for attacking a Thornton supporter
WaterGirl
@Scout211: Yeah, we will still do our fundraising for more traditional groups, but I also love this idea.
The other side got too much of the youth vote, and this is a great way to engage the young pups who want to be part of something. Why not give them something positive to be a part of, but still hip and exciting or however the young pups would describe that these days.
Destiny has 300,000 followers, and even more importantly, he’s not a hateful, arrogant, angry asshole like some of the big names on the other side. And what he says is not based on hate and dividing people, which is a big plus!
He does appear to be smart as hell, however.
WaterGirl
@Cheryl from Maryland: What’s amazing to me is that Thornton’s opponent has been in office for awhile, elected to at least 2 terms previously.
And all of the stuff that’s coming out has been a matter of public record ALL THAT TIME.
Does not one vet candidates anymore???
Vetting process on the other side:
Do you hate all the right people?
Yes? Okay, we’ll back you!
caphilldcne
Donated $100. Go Balloon Juice and Ground Game!!
WaterGirl
@caphilldcne: Thank you!
Wapiti
In for $100.
BlueGuitarist
In for 25
Thanks WG and angel
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf:
Something you mentioned the other day made me wonder: are you working with BlueVoterGuide?
StringOnAStick
In for $25.
Melancholy Jaques
I’m in for $50! We have to have Virginia.
WaterGirl
@Melancholy Jaques: We really do need Virginia, on so many levels.
Jackie
@Cheryl from Maryland:
I saw that article this morning, and my cynical mind thought “this isn’t a dealbreaker for republicans.” If he loses, it won’t be because of this, but it may help undecideds decide who to vote for – or against. MAGAts, for sure won’t be dissuaded.
kitfoxer
In for $50! Thanks, angel!
WaterGirl
@Jackie: @Cheryl from Maryland:
I have been seeing disturbing information about the incumbent for at least a couple of months. This appears to be an escalation, though.
One more Republican who thinks they are untouchable. Come on, Virginia, vote this dangerous criminal out of office.
WaterGirl
@caphilldcne: @Wapiti: @BlueGuitarist: @StringOnAStick: @Melancholy Jaques: @kitfoxer:
Thank you all so much!
BenInNM
In for $10
H.E.Wolf
No, this is the first I’ve heard of it. Their website looks interesting. If you have any opinions of their work, I’d be glad to know what you think!
Stacy
In for $100. Let’s go Virginia!
H.E.Wolf
@BlueGuitarist: Also, thank you for sparking a memory from a long time ago: when I lived in CA, I used to put up voter registration forms in a homemade manila-folder pocket at my workstation… right next to the October Q&A grid published in one of the local newspapers, with answers from local candidates.
It was great to see co-workers drop by with their ballots and read through the Q&A grid before voting. Got a couple folks registered for the first time, too!
ETA: Ballot check-sheets. Mail-in was not yet statewide.
H.E.Wolf
Wooooo!!! Look at that thermometer climb!
no body no name
I think due to the government shutdown VA is a done deal.
Matt McIrvin
@dm: Democratic Party approval is low because a lot of Democrats want the Democrats to fight harder against the Republicans, even if it’s a vague and low-information sentiment.
It does not mean they prefer what the Republicans are selling. It also does not mean they would not vote for their local Democrats in an election. The Republicans are just more tribally unified behind the Big Man.
WaterGirl
@no body no name: I hope you’re right but we can’t stop doing the work because of predictions like that.
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
In for $100.
H.E.Wolf
@no body no name: I like the idea of helping VA voters smack the Republicans so hard at the ballot box on Nov 4th that their Republican cousins fall down. :)
lowtechcyclist
Looks like the angel match has all been claimed, but I tossed $95 into the hat.
I’m proud to be a Hokie from Mus…Blacksburg!
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
In for $100. Thanks WG!
dc
In for $25.00
WaterGirl
@BenInNM: @Stacy: @Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: @lowtechcyclist: @A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): @dc:
Thanks so much to everyone donating or providing encouragement!
Jackie
Question regarding the 2026 midterms:
State SoSs are required to do the paperwork officially acknowledging the congressional winners. If the SoS is a republican (TX for one example) and refuses to recognize the winners of both state AND federal democratic winners, what happens?
(My sinuses are having fits today, thanks to the huge windstorm we had yesterday, so I hope my question is clearer than my stuffed head)
Another Scott
@Jackie: My recollection is that there were lots and lots of court cases in the recent past that says that SoSes cannot refuse to certify election winners.
Yeah, that was in the Before Times, but I think we have to assume that that is still the case.
Forward!!
Best wishes,
Scott.
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf:
BlueVoterGuide is great!
They (all volunteer project) collect information on endorsements.
The main use case:
voters can find details for the ballot in their location: endorsement information for Democratic candidates, and especially usefully, for candidates in nonpartisan contests (eg school board) and ballot measures.
BlueVoterGuide is also super useful for people trying to get a sense of a variety of candidates in downballot elections across the country.
2liberal
I’m in for $100
Barbara
I just donated $220.
no body no name
@H.E.Wolf:
VA wealth is from defense and intelligence and the data center boom around that. Quit paying them and whelp…
WaterGirl
@2liberal: @Barbara: THANK YOU!
Marleedog
In for $50.
Josie
In for $50.00
WaterGirl
Once our BJ Angel, pat, adds her $500, we will be slightly more than $500 away from our $7,500 goal.
H.E.Wolf
@no body no name:
Very true about the economics of (especially northern) VA! I have some very dear relatives who live there. They’ve been working tirelessly for over a year for this election.
I’m so glad that Balloon Juice is participating, too. It seems to me that politics, at its best, is about creating good connections between people.
H.E.Wolf
@BlueGuitarist:
Many thanks for the information about BlueVoterGuide! They’ll be on my radar henceforth. :)
Jackie
@Another Scott: Thanks, Scott
Second part to question: Should the midterms elections show that Dems have retaken the House (and hopefully the Senate) is Jeffries automatically Speaker of the House? Or could Johnson refuse to accept the election results and refuse to cede the Speakership? Or FFOTUS refuse to acknowledge the election results and demand that Johnson not cede the Speakership?
So many political articles are floating these what ifs. I’m mentally trying to prepare for the future shenanigans coming down the pipeline. We can already assume FFOTUS will not let his majority go away gently into the night…
Another Scott
@Jackie: The present Congress ends on January 3, 2027. They have to start over then. If Democrats have the majority, they will choose the Speaker.
There are too many what-ifs to worry about otherwise, in my opinion.
:-)
Meanwhile, how to handle unwanted kangaroos showing up for Trick or Treat.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Cliosfanboy
I voted in VA yesterday. And flipped off the republican standing outside with sample ballots. They had BS signs all over the place, totally disconnected from reality.
Cliosfanboy
@WaterGirl: another creepy Black guy who decided he fits best with the republicans. (He’s accused of running a “texting ring” involving teenagers.)
WaterGirl
Just $150 needed to meet our goal! (Because the $500 from the Angel who is currently in Austria, so it can’t be donated through the thermometer.)
WaterGirl
@Cliosfanboy: Yeah, the incumbent that Virgil Thornton is trying to unseat is an appalling creature.
Snarki, child of Loki
I am VERY DISAPPOINTED with the California Prop. 50 redistricting item on the ballot.
Why? Because it should have been numbered “-47”.
HinTN
@WaterGirl: Thermometer at $7101 says we’re there, no?
WTFGhost
Nice game; not one I’ve ever been able to play. Good luck! I wish like hell I could provide some help and enthusiasm.
rodwell
Donate $40. Thanks, Watergirl for doing this.
WaterGirl
@HinTN: Yes, we are!
WaterGirl
We did it!
Thanks so much, everyone!!!
no body no name
@H.E.Wolf:
We’re also an IT hub and a research hub but it’s all DOD and CIA based.
I haven’t worn a uniform in a while but the trickle down hurts. I’m fucked as a consultant. I’ll be OK I have the savings for it. But I’m not going out for lunch now. I’m not taking the nieces out for ramen. So those people also aren’t getting paid.
I’m going to say fuck it and go out for ramen with the little ones as I got a new contract but this is a mess. For those not familiar with NOVA a good bowl of ramen is about 20 USD. But it’s huge.
H.E.Wolf
@no body no name:
Thank you for the reminder that economic ripple effects are always widespread, far more than we sometimes remember.
Congrats on the new contract, and may you and your nieces have a fine celebration. We gotta take joy where and when we find it!
H.E.Wolf
WaterGirl and her angelic host – and the many donors – have pulled us across another finish line, with room to spare!
Many thanks to all y’all. This is the way.
oldgold
2026 will be a banner year for Democrats in Iowa. Returning the Hawkeye State to the purple column.
Leading the charge will be Rob Sand, who should convincingly win the governor’s race. He’s a damn good candidate.
At this point the competition to replace Ernst is less than clear. If the Dems can find a decent candidate, that race is very winnable.
Rep Miller – Meeks will be defeated.
WaterGirl
@oldgold: It’s a nice thought. I have no insight into Iowa, but I sure hope you are right.
JoeyJoeJoe
@WaterGirl: MMM won by 6 votes in 2020, and by a small margin last year. She could easily lose. Also, a Democrat held the seat before her.
trivia: Chelsea Clinton’s father in law held the seat for two terms in the 1970s.
Miss Bianca
@H.E.Wolf: You’re not a Slings and Arrows fan by any chance are you? :)