Can we all calm the hell down now?
Romney had seen a big three-day post-debate move in the Gallup daily tracking poll, but today’s results signal that his debate bump is beginning to level off.
Earlier on Monday, Gallup released results of three days of post-debate, which showed that Romney had tied up the race with Obama in those three days of interviews. It also found that Romney was the biggest winner in the history of the presidential debates.
Obama’s approval rating — which has swung wildly in recent weeks — also ticked up to 51 percent, above the “safe” 50-percent threshold for an incumbent’s re-election.
I have only one response:
Liberals? You’re giving me heartburn with all this hair-on-fire nonsense. Stop it.
Here’s why Romney is perceived as the winner of the debates, and why, ultimately, it doesn’t matter.
Now, stop it. Seriously. Don’t make me come over there.
[cross-posted at ABLC]
bondirotta
Gallup essentially issued a news release that gave a misleadingly positive spin on Romney just hours before releasing the Monday tracking numbers showing the Romney bounce fading. They are trying everything they can to create an illusion of an even race.
El Cid
Job approval is also over 50%, at 51.
blingee
Seems to me you are the one who is flailing your arms with hair on fire.
I didn’t listen to all the background noise after the debate and I don’t listen to the background noise now. Nothing has changed and if you are trying to read tea leaves by following daily movements in the polls you are either stupid or enjoy self abuse.
I remember the Bush v Kerry debates in 2004. Bush was a bit ahead in the polls and Kerry handily won the debates with all the usual MSM masturbating afterwards resulting in a bit of a brief Kerry bump in the polls. In the end none of it mattered.
Oh and btw, I don’t think Rmoney won the debate in the over all scheme of things. It only gave the Obama campaign more ammunition and they are smart enough that I am pretty sure this has been their plan all along. If you read Axelrods comments afterwards you will get the same impression. All the people buying into the MSM meme are nothing but koolaid drinkers.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
This means Obama sold us out. Please keep in mind as of the last Wednesday’s debate Obama’s positions are to the right of Romney’s.
Joel
It’s a good sign. But the post-debate drop was real and it did have some costs. Yes, it didn’t lose the election, or even come close. But it was about time that we lost our sense of complacency. I was as guilty of it as anyone.
Spankyslappybottom
I’m sorry, but what bullshit is this?: “Obama will ultimately be seen as the winner of last night’s debate.”
Wrong.
Obama lost. Read the NYT article on his lack of prep, how he thinks debates are a superficial media show, how he views Romney with contempt.
I can’t believe that this is the same Obama who thought his first term’s biggest failing was failure to communicate its important accomplishments.
Well, Mr. President, you just had an audience of 70 million frickin’ Americans who were waiting to hear what you’d done and what you’d do for them, and why the other guy would be bad for them.
They didn’t hear it.
You dug this hole. Dig yourself out.
Shit.
Bob In Portland
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques: Huh?
Son, you need a roadmap.
Alex S.
Well, if Obama had won the debate Romney could as well have closed down his campaign operation. A one-two punch of a good debate and the excellent job numbers would have taken all reasons of a Romney presidency away. Now the past week has been a wash – which is something Obama can live with, of course.
James E. Powell
What Romney won in the debate was relief from the relentlessly negative stories in the press/media. What Obama lost in the debate was the conversation about his coattails.
What Chris Matthews lost in the debate was his mind.
FlipYrWhig
The important thing is, if we don’t panic now, we might lose our chance later, because, like, you can run out of the stuff.
Seanly
@Bob In Portland:
I think that was snark. Since Romney can hold any position at any time, Obama was to the right of him during the debate. Except on Romney’s “fire Big Bird to fix the deficit” plank.
scav
@Bob In Portland: You missed Romney’s dancey flopflip where he admitted to hanging up a Che poster in his HS locker right next to the Angel Moroni’s? It would be irresponsible not to speculate which he kissed longer. (He did walk it back 5 days later, said he got it confused with a Cher poster.)
hueyplong
The jobs report went better than expected not just because of the number (sub 8%) but also because of the GOP’s over the top reaction to it, which reinforces the idea that even mildly good news for Americans during this campaign makes them petulantly unhappy. You don’t have to be a Democratic partisan to notice that they’ve got a disgustingly high tolerance for the suffering of others if that suffering moves the dial even marginally in their favor.
Most campaigns are reluctant to be so transparent that even marginally engaged people pick up on the cruel cynicism.
But still in all, it would not be good if, in future debates, Obama manages to limbo under the very low bar he apparently set in the first debate. I might join the panickers if that happens.
? Martin
So, you want everyone to stop being Democrats? Running around like we have a hedghog in our ass is what we do. And dammit, we’re good at it!
blingee
@Joel:
Fixed.
var
@blingee:
Obama’s debate performance was not 11 dimensional chess. He was lame. No advantage to be gained by that.
Also Kos’ polling outfit is releasing a poll with Romney in the lead (according to teh Twitters). I don’t think Romney’s bump is faded. I think Obama needs to dig in. This isn’t over and he needs to show for the next debate and cut some quality TV commercials.
Capt. Seaweed
But what about the House? WHAT ABOUT THE HOUSE!?!
/whine
SatanicPanic
@blingee: dude, take it easy
JenJen
@bondirotta: That was completely bizarre, the way Gallup timed that, wasn’t it?
Oh, and just when everyone started to feel a bit better, Pew is out with a new poll showing Romney with a four point lead. Good grief. It’s going to be a long month.
? Martin
Can we get ABL or Betty to work the Romney farts on girl picture into the rotation?
rlrr
“It’s a tie!”
— Political Slobserver
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@blingee: I was going to write something annoying, but there was this:
Stupid – the Republican Party
Enjoy self abuse – the Democratic Party
blingee
@var: It was just chess and yes, the MSM is treating it like checkers…as usual. The 11 dimensional thing is something people who don’t understand chess say.
In other words. The Obama campaign is looking at the big picture. They don’t want to win the debate…they want to win the election. So let Rmoney shills high five each other.
Incumbent almost always loses these debates…btw. So it would be foolish to try win if you can’t remain calm, cool, presidential. All things Rmoney was not in case you didn’t notice. He came to attack and win. Now the Obama campaign has a bunch of video which in case you haven’t noticed…they are using.
John O
New Pew poll shows Romney well ahead.
Gonna be a nail-biter.
peach flavored shampoo
TPM has some blurb up a few days ago saying that, paradoxically, the drop in O’s numbers were matched by a tick up in Dem Senate candidate’s numbers. I’m at loss to explain that.
? Martin
@var: Pew just landed showing Romney +4. Looks like a solid poll, but I haven’t seen the crosstabs. Ran from Friday through Sunday so it would have the jobs data baked in.
JenJen
More on that new Pew Poll… this is the poll that had Obama up by eight points after the conventions.
Le sigh.
YellowJournalism
@? Martin: So THAT is the October surprise everyone has been talking about.
? Martin
@John O: Doesn’t matter unless the state polls move. EVs are all that matters.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@scav: I fully expect Romney to come out on stage during the next debate with a tie dyed t-shirt that says “411” on it and a lava lamp he kept from his commune days in the 60s.
AliceBlue
@var:
Kos says the bulk of the responses to this poll are from Thursday and Friday.
? Martin
@YellowJournalism: I have to admit, I didn’t see it coming.
JenJen
@? Martin: Wouldn’t it follow, though, that if the national numbers are moving that radically, the state numbers must be moving, too?
The Pew Poll has pushed Romney to +2.7 in TPM’s PollTracker. Ugh. Maybe it’s time for us to go back into Hedgehog In Our Asses Mode. :-) Unless, of course, we’re smart and remain skeptical of 12 point swings reflected nowhere else.
Mnemosyne
Part of the problem, of course, is that the media has built up a myth where elections are won or lost based on a single debate. Kennedy won because he looked better on TV than Nixon! Reagan won because he said, “There you go again!” Gore lost because he sighed!
Of course, what these “historical analyses” overlook is that those moments defined those debates because those moments either confirmed or disproved an idea that the electorate already had about that candidate. Nixon looked shifty, which confirmed what people already thought about “Tricky Dick” Nixon. Reagan looked affable and reasonably sane, not the Goldwater manque that Carter had been pushing. Gore looked like a snooty, uptight pedant, which was the meme that the media was pushing, hard.
So what came out of Wednesday’s debate? Obama looked tired and stressed. Romney looked like an overcaffeined TV pitchman who wants to fire Big Bird to balance the budget.
Sorry, guys and gals, but I really don’t think that firing Big Bird is going to be Romney’s “there you go again” election-winning moment.
The Dangerman
Ha!
/half nelson
Seanly
We need Mr. Cole to post one of his low blood sugar cranky posts to put us all in our place. Does anyone know if he survived the weekend with his Army tanking and/or college rugby/frat buddies?
RE: Pew Poll – saw JenJen said it is the same one that had Obama up +8 after DNC. I doubt 12% of the electorate is changing their minds. The RAND weekly track only shows net moves of 2 to 3% (which is where Sam Wang bases his contention that undecideds are only about 2 to 3% nowadays).
peach flavored shampoo
I’d say no. Holy fuck that’s a huge swing to Romney.
blingee
@SatanicPanic: I’m not the one on these blog sites flailing my arms around spewing “we are losing” at the drop of a hat at the first sign the MSM (this is ENTIRELY a MSM generated blip in the polls btw) is turning on our guy.
FlipYrWhig
@Mnemosyne: That’s why the analysis that Big Media really wants to settle on this time around is “Romney sounded moderate.” They’ve gotten to that explanation by way of “Romney sounded more confident and aggressive” through a bit of sleight of hand.
GeneJockey
Something odd about the TPM polltracker average – prior to the Pew poll with Romney up 49/45, the polltracker average was O +2.1. Now it’s R +2.7.
It’s hard to see how one poll with Romney at +4 can cause a 4.8% swing in an average….
Scott S.
@blingee: Oh, blingee, are you mad? You keep commenting on ABL’s posts, and you keep sounding so angry. Whatcha angry about, schnookums?
Death Panel Truck
@blingee: I said it last week, and I’ll say it again. Willard came across as a raving lunatic. It appealed to the base, and some Republicans reluctant to commit to him, but to no one else.
Willard didn’t win anything last week.
blingee
@Scott S.: lol….angry? Oh you silly silly child.
FlipYrWhig
@GeneJockey: Who knows what they’re doing. They’re also content to run, on the same page the same day, stories analyzing the impact of both ups and downs in polls, apparently because they have a file of Smiling Presidential Candidate jpegs they like to drag and drop.
JenJen
@peach flavored shampoo: Chuck Todd is looking at crosstabs and says the swing toward Romney is coming from the midwest, and from women. Romney went from -18 with women in the last Pew poll to tied.
Why do I find that so hard to believe, and/or swallow?
japa21
It should be noted that the Pew poll had more self-identified Republicans than Democrats in its sample, which tends to run counter to the general national consensus. I don’t know what their earlier poll was based on.
lacp
Me? I’m cool as a cucumber. Talk to the folks at DCCC who just sent me a hysterical email saying the RACE IS DEAD EVEN…SEND $$$$ RIGHT AWAY….ZOMG! WITHOUT YOUR $$$$ OBAMA IS DOOMED!!! Perhaps they were exaggerating just a wee bit.
Hill Dweller
Apparently Pew changed its weighting from Dem +5 in the last poll, which had Obama up 8, to Rep + 3 in this poll, which has Willard up by 4.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@JenJen:
Because during the debate the real time thing showed women not liking Romney the most.
GregB
One real unfortunate issue with the weak first debate will be that if it is a real close election, there will be more of a chance that electoral shenanigans can have an effect.
Some dickering with voter suppression on a blow out would cause weaker numbers…dickering with a close election can cost an election.
Also too, first there was the poll skepticism glommed on to by many in the GOP, then the Bureau of Labor Statistics bitherism, and then we can have an amped up election birther skeptic cacophony.
The closer the election gets the worse it will be for our side.
Ash Can
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques:
Or wearing a yarmulke.
Alex S.
Strange how Pew shows Romney ahead even though they used to be more favorable for Obama while Gallup has it the other way round. This does not make sense to me, so I guess that the safest conclusion is that reality is somewhere between these two results, or in other words, it’s tied.
Face
After all that work, it would really, really suck to lose an election on the basis of a 90 minute debate. Didn’t think my fellow Americans were so easily distrac…HONEY BOO BOO!
hueyplong
Did the Pew poll explain why it made such a seemingly sharp shift in party ID percentages?
John O
@? Martin:
Those numbers are coming from somewhere, and I don’t think they’re from IL and UT.
? Martin
@GeneJockey:
TPM would have taken out the previous Pew poll that had Obama +8. So to the average it looks like one poll moving +12 to Romney.
Omnes Omnibus
@Seanly: Cole played lacrosse not rugby.
Bokonon
Shorter Mitt Romney: “I love Big Bird! And that’s why I want to take a short position on him … and outsource him … and then sell him off to the highest bidder at a livestock auction to be chopped up and sold off as McNuggets. You see, we really have no choice. The deficit and stuff requires it.”
“Have I mentioned that I love Medicaid and Medicare too?”
[Beware the embrace of Mitt Romney.]
Punchy
Two well respected, been-here-many-times-before national polling outfits are NINE points apart? Yikes. That’s pretty jacked up.
NR
@hueyplong: It’s likely voters, so party ID is based on the responses they got.
Ash Can
@Hill Dweller:
Imagine that.
Alex S.
@Hill Dweller:
Pew’s reaction is a bit hysterical, isn’t it? The impression of the first debate will be erased or revised significantly. And most importantly, the first debate was the one that Romney ‘should’ have won. The economy (and the debt) was the core argument of his campaign. The townhall debate could trigger Romney’s awkwardness, and the foreign policy debate should be Obama’s territory.
Hill Dweller
@John O: Pew baked in a 8 point swing toward Willard just from their weighting.
eemom
I thought that here on this blog we are smart enough to know that national polls don’t mean shit.
FormerSwingVoter
Sorry guys, but I’m not putting my panic hat on until Nate Silver tells me to. The Fivethirtyeight model has dropped the chance of an Obama victory to like, 78%, so let’s chill out a little bit and put the razor blades away, mmmkay?
hueyplong
Nate Silver’s site’s most recent headline (from yesterday) says, “National Polls Show Signs of Settling.”
Presumably he’s writing an update with a different title.
? Martin
@John O: Sure, they’re from IL and UT. The question is whether they’re less from IL and UT than from OH and VA.
There’s a school of thought that they may be more from IL and UT, because the turnout efforts are on the battleground states, and those voters are more likely already in the LV model than voters from UT and IL where the outcome is already pretty well determined.
You keep falling into the trap that these swings are people changing their vote. People generally aren’t changing their vote. People instead are deciding to vote, or deciding to not vote. Do you think that voters in OH and VA are more or less likely to change their mind on that?
NR
@Hill Dweller: They didn’t “weight” the poll at all. Republicans are now saying they are more likely to vote than Democrats.
shortstop
Madeleine Albright called Mitt a big old lightweight and a shallow thinker. I’m Nelson Muntzing all over that one.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@Hill Dweller: Nothing says science like changing the sample. But I guess really just reflects how enthused the conservatives are about Romney’s performance.
Morbo
To quote Nate Silver’s twitter:
“The polls are undersampling 9-year-olds and cookie monsters, which is why you don’t see Obama getting a Big Bird Bounce.”
Libby's Person
Is it safe to come out from under my bed yet? OH, NO! TPM has a scary headline! Too bad I’m addicted to the internet… Time to go do some volunteering for OFA and wash the anxiety out with some hard work.
Comrade Mary
@NR:
Ah. So we’re seeing the march of the easily freaked? Is this where I ship some Buck the Fuck Up down south?
Davis X. Machina
Stochastic noise.
Davis X. Machina
@Comrade Mary: Not every state will let you vote absentee from under your bed, so Republicans are more likely to vote.
Joel
@NR: Yep, although I think that effect will fade as the conversation moves on to other subjects (and believe me, it will).
Napoleon
@Hill Dweller:
Pew, like all or nearly all polling outfits does not weigh their results by party ID, unlike what they do with demographics like gender, race and age.
Keith G
I am sorry Ms Gandy, but I can not calmthe hell down until the first week in Dec when the Senate receives the electoral vote tally. None of your happy talk can wipe away so many elestions when we were smarter and better and still the losers.
In the past, we have been pretty good at making fun of Republicans, but less successful at actually beating them.
So yeah…I’ll stayed worried for a bit.
kd bart
The Pew poll reminds me of the Gallup polls back in 2000 that use to swing 15 points back and forth in one week . This one moved 12 points. Polls just don’t do that. It wasn’t Obama by 8 and it’s not now Romney by 4. Especially when state polls in swing states still show Obama up.
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
Again, count me as someone not despondent about Obama’s debate performance (since I felt he won, but fuck it, I actually listened to the substance rather than drooling over Mitt’s composure and face plastic smile), but rather despondent that our political discourse is this fucking worthless that one debate performance has swung the Country this fucking much into total Mittmania.
Fuck this shit.
OGLiberal
@John O:
GeneJockey
@? Martin:
Not sure that’s it. Before the Pew Poll came out, the average was at O +2.1. Now it’s R +2.8. Use the tool to remove Pew from the calculations, and it goes right back to O +2.1.
That suggests the previous Pew poll had already rolled off.
Hill Dweller
Does anyone in their right mind think there was a 12 point swing based on a debate?
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
Someone was pointing out most of the polling for Pew was done Thursday and Friday during the peak freak out too.
NR
@kd bart:
It baffles me why people think polls absolutely have to move slowly.
Polls can change as fast as the minds of the people being polled.
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
@Hill Dweller:
Not based on a debate.
Based on the frothing total Romney lovefest and/or outright dismissal of Obama as apparently the stupidest man on the entire planet? Maybe.
I really don’t know what explains it, I just know whatever it is makes me fucking weep.
John O
I too will wait for Nate, but he probably won’t have a lot of data to work with until week’s end.
Then I’ll panic.
wvblueguy
Before the debate started a friend of mine and I predicted that Obama was going to rope-a-dope Romney in the style of the great Mohammed Ali, and that is what happened. Now that all the jive has moved on and things are moving back to normal the Obama campaign has more ammunition than they ever dreamed of as we close on election day.
I was at Oktoberfest in Bramwell WV this weekend and the folks from the Democratic Party were handing out shirt stickers. The single highest requested sticker was Obama Biden 2012, we may not win the state, but there are a lot more folks that want him to win than we are led to believe by the press.
I also believe that Democrats are going to turn out, and while the popular vote may be in Obama’s favor by 5 -10% that the Electoral College will be a run away over Romney.
Shawn in ShowMe
@eemom:
I don’t think smart has any thing to do with it. Some people are just poll addicts. They know that the only poll that’s worth looking at is the one before election day, but they can’t help themselves.
I had the same problem when I first got an Ameritrade account in the late 90s and spent all day peeking at stock movements. It was a pitiful existence.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@Hill Dweller:
Keep in mind the polls are about who wants to answer the phone for the pollster. I know just about every Progressive did want to talk politics for two days after the debate.
var
@JenJen: At the risk of using a winger argument, the Pew poll showed a +5 point Republican sample. That’s a bit much for a general election unless things have gone to hell in a hand basket.
Omnes Omnibus
If everyone could stop worrying or gloating over national polls, I would be rather grateful.
Bob h
Pew has a new poll out today that shows R +4′ that is wildly inconsistent with Gallup. It’s internals make no sense.
Alex S.
Obama’s still solid approavl rating is proof to me that his dip in the polls is ‘only’ an enthusiasm issue, not really based on substance.
Death Panel Truck
I trust Sam Wang. I’ll wait for what he has to say. The guy was off by one EV in 2008.
gbear
To quote Mr. Thomas Petty: Too Much Ain’t Enough.
SatanicPanic
@The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik: The Republicans are just a bit more enthused about Romney. The rest of us will continue to point and laugh at him.
Punchy
@NR: Dems and Repubs are not changing their minds on the basis of a debate. This would have to be lots of Indies switching, which if true, then wow. Short attention spans, trivial voting issues, and such.
skjellyfetti
Not funny. I see on my portal page this story saying Romney has a post-debate lead of 4 points; then I click on BJ and see Imani saying Obama has a 5 point lead on Romney?
WTF? No wonder I’m so fucking confused these days…
Comrade Mary
@Davis X. Machina: Man, I am ready to slap at least one commenter (on another site) right now. She’s fragging like fuck. “Oh my God! Obama fucked up! We’re fucked! I told you so! We’re doomed!”
Yeah, way to keep people stable and inspired: attack Obama as if sheer pique will make time travel possible. With ponies.
Napoleon
@Hill Dweller:
Jesus, do you understand poles? Typically they come with a disclaimer something like 95% confidence that the result is within 3.5% points of the actual number. So all you would need is the first pole to be at the high end of the range but still in the 95% confidece range. Lets call it 3 points high. Then lets say Romney picked up 3 real points (which seems to be what earlier polls seem to be saying). So that is 6 of your 12 points right there. All you would need is for the new poll to be the 1 in 20 that is an outlier, and in this case it would have to be on the low side by 6 points. That gets you a 12 point swing based on a real 3 point swing. Wait for other polls to come out and see if they confirm Pew or if it becomes obvious that it simply was an outlier.
hueyplong
It seems like this entire week will be kind of unstable based on the movement we’ve seen so far and the fact that a couple of big events just happened (debate on Wed; jobs report on Friday). It’s possible that regardless of whether you are in favor or caution or panic, you’re just going to have to wait a few days to see whether the polls follow the lead set today by Gallup or the one set by Pew. No doubt each of them can make arguments that its methods are reliable and reasonable, yet they have wildly divergent results.
? Martin
@Hill Dweller:
Different question, but no. Some polls are more sensitive than others to the LV question. I suspect Pew’s is given that they had Obama higher than the average before and now lower than the average.
Short of some really blistering event (and no, that debate wasn’t it) none of the polls should be showing 12 point swings – or they should all be showing such swings. They really need to dig into their data and figure out what’s going wrong. I’m not saying the R+4 result is wrong – it could have been the O+8 result that was wrong. My guess is that they’re both wrong.
KG
Ok, quick history lesson… Carter “lost” the only debate in 1980, Reagan “lost” the first debate in 1984 (then used then “youth and inexperience” line in the second), GHW Bush “lost” the first debate in 1992, GW Bush “lost” the first debate in 2004. You know what all of those have in common? The incumbent “losing”, you know why? Because they’ve usually been busy being the fucking president.
Throw in Lerher basically being as effective as a stoned Chihuahua in moderating the debate, and Romney completely reversing course on 85% of what he said over the last three years, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that Obama “lost”.
I have to admit, while I am not surprised Romney lied, I am rather shocked that he went against so much of his primary campaign positioning. The problem with that is that now he’s going to have to answer questions about why he ran as goateed Romney during the primaries and which Romney would he be in the White House
JordanRules
I can’t believe we’re poll dancing on BJ.
Mercy!
Hill Dweller
In other news, Willard’s foreign policy speech is getting panned.
Joe Buck
TPM points out that Pew has Romney up by four:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/on_the_other_hand_1.php
Not that I believe that; I do think that Romney made up ground with the debate, but that if the Obama campaign executes well, and if the president actually shows up for the next two, the president can win handily.
I suspect that the strategy going in to the first debate was to just appear reasonable and let Romney come across like a dick, and argue against what Romney said during the primaries, and they just weren’t prepared for the completely predictable Romney strategy of getting out the Etch-a-Sketch and switching most of his unpopular positions.
They’ll be better prepared next time.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Shawn in ShowMe:
What we are dealing with is The Serenity Prayer in reverse:
Oh Dear Flying Spaghetti Monster, give me the strength to bash my head against a wall of things which I cannot change, the panic to get flustered regarding the things which I can change, and the confusion to not be able to tell one from the other, Amen, with extra meatballs.
It’s all right there in the Progressive Rosary.
Chyron HR
@Napoleon:
Woah, I agree somebody is publishing bad numbers, but I don’t think you need to bring ethnic sterotypes into it…
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
@KG:
The post debate slobbering has been trying to vindicate Lehrer too, saying he was just staying out of the way to let the candidates explain themselves properly. You know, it was only Obama’s fault that he didn’t demand time to clarify, while Mitt was a master because he took control of the debate.
Yeah, easy to take control of the debate when you ignore the fucking moderator, but apparently that’s a virtue now.
Davis X. Machina
@Chyron HR: Some poles are just crappie.
GeneJockey
@hueyplong:
I’m not sure there’s a real difference between Pew and Gallup. Gallup is RV, and reported (bizarrely) that Thu-Sat their results were dead even.
Pew interviewed Thu-Sun, and their RV numbers were dead even. Then they apply the LV screen and Romney moves up 4%. Add in GOP ecstasy, and subtract Dem panic, and I can see these results.
It suggests their LV screen is hypersensitive, since the RV swing was only 8%, while the LV swing was 12%.
feebog
@ Libby’s Person:
Did ya notice that right beside the big change in numbers nationally the electoral college numbers remained exactly the same? Obama still has well over 270 and rMoney is still stuck on 191. Imagine that.
Napoleon
@Chyron HR:
:)
Bill
CNN is reporting this number very differently?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/08/second-straight-poll-suggests-debate-bump-for-romney/?hpt=hp_t2
Are they wrong? Am I missing something? What they are reporting doesn’t seem like good news, although it completely fails to take in to account Romney’s huge problems getting enough electoral votes at this stage in the game.
Comrade Mary
@Hill Dweller: But Romney was endorsed by Stacey Dash! She was in, like, one movie! That’s gonna swing the election for sure! We’re fucked! WHERE’S THE BEAGLE SHIT? WHERE’S MY MATCHES? MY HAIR NEEDS TO BE A FLAMING PYRE FOR THE DEATH OF OBAMA’S CHANCES!
(Seriously? This was a hard slog before the debates, even with Romney stepping all over his dick. Things are hard now, but they’ll get harder if people get despairing and convince themselves and as many other people as possible that we’re fucked. I can see people being honestly anxious. I have been there. But I’ve seen a lot of hysteria elsewhere and I hope people don’t encourage each other about it here because it’s less than useless.)
scav
@Shawn in ShowMe: I’m too rather reminded of The Stocks are up! We’re Saved! They’re Down! We’re DOOMED to Catfood! days too. Days, forget it, certain peanut galleries could ring the changes hourly.
rlrr
@feebog:
A part of wants to see Obama win the Electoral College while loosing the popular vote. Watching conservatives contort themselves that this is somehow different than 2000 would be most amusing…
Redshift
@Comrade Mary: In one of Nate’s recent posts, he noted that there’s also a well-known effect where people who perceive their candidate as doing well are more likely to respond to polls (may have just been robopolls.)
He’s not saying it explains all of these shifts, but he points out you can never know how much of a bounce is just this effect, which don’t represent a real shift in support.
Ben Franklin
@Keith G:
In the past, we have been pretty good at making fun of Republicans, but less successful at actually beating them.
So yeah…I’ll stayed worried f
Gallup shows a 2 to 1 margin for conservative over Dems, but happy hour has been 24/7 here. I pray the optimism is not whistling through the graveyard, but I prefer it to the gnashing of teeth.
pseudonymous in nc
@skjellyfetti:
HuffingTPM’s strategy right now is borderline trolling. In the meantime, Nate Silver will be plugging the latest barrage of state and national poll results into his 538-a-tron which has weightings for every pollster, bounce models based upon years of previous data and a fairly decent fucking track record.
Punchy
Vegas odds have BO winning the general going from -400 to -250. It moved from BO winning Ohio from -350 to -170. I’d say those are some significant moves.
Real or not, Romney has momemtum that’s going to be hard to stop as the MSM will continue to drive this comeback meme until election day. This portends a bad outcome.
JenJen
@Seanly: Pew Poll seems like quite a swing; I mean, we’re talking a 15% shift in three weeks? And Romney went from -18 with women three weeks ago to tied today? Huh?
My concern is that apparently, the Pew Poll was taken entirely after the debate, while the Gallup Poll still has some pre-debate polling in it. And the crosstabs say Pew polled 40% cell, 60% landlines. Gonna have to watch carefully in the coming days to see if the swing states are moving, because if Pew is correct, it only stands to reason that some of that movement is in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, et al.
Again, Le Sigh.
John D
@Bill: Why did you skip the previous paragraph at CNN, which explains what you are asking?
The numbers you quoted were up to the 6th. Today is the 8th. Perhaps you should look at the numbers from the 7th, which reverted from the 47-47 tie back to 50-45 Obama, to clear up your confusion about why the Gallup poll is good new for Obama.
Face
Yes. There’s one up north, one down south, and they’re both fucking cold as nuts.
hueyplong
GeneJockey, that makes some sense. My own uneducated guess is that a bunch of formerly demoralized Republicans turned “likely” once their stumblebum candidate became an authoritarian Daddy figure who appeared to be winning. I hadn’t factored in the Democratic panic aspect, which in retrospect seems silly in the context of reading posts on this board.
OT, here in NC I was treated to a TV ad noting that a “nonpartisan group” (called nonpartisan three times for emphasis) said Obama would crush the middle class. If you watch the visuals closely enough, you’ll see the totally objective nonpartisan group is that bastion of evenhanded commentary and policy proposals, the American Enterprise Institute.
Mr Stagger Lee
Boy one moment panic, then the next elation, then panic, then elation. One gets enough of that following the fans of Seattle Seahawks.
Hill Dweller
Is this country, as f’d up as it is, going to elect a largely failed politician over a guy that spent four years overcoming Republican obstructionism to clean up the disaster they left him?
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@hueyplong:
Here? Compared to Daily Kos this blog is a picture of cool reason.
GeneJockey
@Bill:
That release by Gallup was just weird. It was hours before their standard daily release, and they don’t generally comment on their day-to-day numbers.
When they finally released their 7-day tracker at the normal time, it showed Obama back up to 50-45, from Sunday’s 49-46. Similarly, Rasmussen has showed Romney +2 on Sunday, but was back to a tie today.
Higgs Boson's Mate
My impression, from paying attention to American politics, and participating at the grunt level, since the mid-Sixties, is that Obama faced greater odds in this election than those he faced in 2008. At that time, the economy was still collapsing and Bush was about to go into hiding. McCain chose a cartoon as his running mate.
Four years on and the economy is recovering although it’s not exactly perking. Numbers of Americans don’t look beyond the surface and Obama is still blah.
I’m surprised that Obama is doing so well, even if his opponent is Romney. So, my hair doesn’t catch fire with each swing of the polls. I’m optimistic, I’m also pragmatic.
Libby's Person
@feebog: Thanks. I like those numbers, and sing myself to sleep with them. Even better for my mental health will spending time at OFA HQ instead of on the internet for the next week or four…
Violet
@Joe Buck:
NPR was just trumpeting this poll when I was in the car. No mention of any other poll. Ugh.
eemom
@Napoleon:
@Chyron HR:
Y’all need to watch Stephen Colbert’s interview of Maurice Sendak.
JenJen
Dear People of Balloon Juice:
It is time once again to heed Wonkette. Best advice? Drink until Wednesday!
Hungry Joe
If we can’t freak out now, when can we freak out? This is our chance. You gotta make hay while the sun shines.
AliceBlue
I’m sure I’ll feel better tomorrow, but right now I have a headache and I’m sick to my stomach. I just can’t wrap my head around the fact that one subpar debate performance caused all this.
arguingwithsignposts
I will be SOOOOOOOOO glad when this election is over so I don’t have to hear about another presidential poll for at least two years.
Bill
@John D:
I didn’t skip it, as I read it I thought the paragraph I quoted was giving a more detailed breakdown of the numbers in the prior paragraph.The dates seem to overlap.
Maybe I’m misreading it.Apologies if that’s the case.
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
@JenJen:
@AliceBlue:
It’s just all doubly headhurty for me because I don’t think Obama did anything WRONG save sound tired. It just seems like so many people are that fucking desperate to stick it to the ni-CLANG president that once they found an excuse to go full bore Mittopia, they went for it full bore and the media couldn’t help itself but indulge in it fully too. YOu know, because only Conservatives are really ever legitimately qualified to run this great sainted country.
I just don’t know what to do to actually attack the underlying symptom that this country really just hates liberals that fucking much.
JenJen
@arguingwithsignposts: You know as well as I do that they’ll start polling Hillary vs. Mitt or Hillary vs. Santorum the day after the election.
Sorry to burst your bubble! :-)
@The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik: I know, I know. Listen to Wonkette: Drink until Wednesday!
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@arguingwithsignposts:
By mid-November Rassmussen will have a poll out showing that Obama’s chances of being re-elected in 2016 are 0%.
Calouste
@Joe Buck:
Obama’s speechwriters need to come up with a “There you go again” like line that Obama can use whenever Romney states something that contradicts a position he took in the primaries (or maybe even two weeks ago). Something along the lines of “Did you mean it then, or do you mean it now?”
Tone In DC
@? Martin:
LULz.
That hog’s name must be Sonic, given the post-debate hysteria that occurred, and is still occurring.
El Cid
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques: And DailyKos was a beacon in a sea of turmoil compared to the elected Democrats after Scott Brown won. I literally thought they had shit themselves.
arguingwithsignposts
@JenJen: Oh, I’m sure they will. But that won’t be front page news until mid-2014, at least.
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: That would require Ras to be accurate, for once.
eemom
@Calouste:
You mean……a ZINGER?
Bruce S
@blingee:
“They don’t want to win the debate…”
I’ve not been “hair on fire” – not even a little bit. But that’s just stupid. Of course they want to win the debates, because they’re one important data point in winning the election. Obama himself admits he did a lousy job. He missed some obvious opportunities. There could be lots of reasons – I think the biggest one is that this debate wasn’t the most important thing in his life that day. He’s the fucking President. It would be scary if he spent more time in debate prep than actually doing shit. But it was a missed opportunity and – at the least – he obviously was somewhat flummoxed by Romney’s Etch-A-Sketch pivots and lies. He played it way too cool in response. The truth is that Obama is better than that – he’s both capable of doing better and we will see that in real time during the next two, but he’s also “better than that” in the sense that these debates with Romney push him into territory that tends to trivialize what’s best about the man. He CAN be good at politics and campaigning, but it’s not what motivates him like a Clinton.
quannlace
Man, oh man. I feel like a little kid stuck in the back seat of the car, on an endless road trip. The trip? Road to the Whitehouse, of course. And I’m starting to wail, ‘Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”
Sweet Jesus, can’t we just vote already? Fuck these fabled ‘Undecideds.’
4tehlulz
That Pew poll is dogshit.
If the results were flipped, the GOP would be screaming about polling bias.
Hill Dweller
Pew registered voter sampling:
Sept. 12-16: Rep-28% Dem-37% Ind-31%
Oct. 4-7: Rep-33% Dem-32% Ind-31%
El Cid
In that Pew poll, when you bring up the detailed tables, there were no likely voter results listed for the 18-29 age group. N = 84, but no answers.
None. It wasn’t suggested, either, that this was somehow included in some other weighted figure.
Contrast with N = 254 and Romney by 54 – 42 from 30 – 49 years, and N = 402 for the 50 – 64 age group, Obama wins 51 to 42 among likely voters.
This seems to me to significantly differ from most demographic estimates:
A zero response rate among 18 – 29 yo, and an Obama triumph in the 50 – 64 yo demographic?
Is this reflective of the electoral demographic? Was anyone planning an Obama victory upon zero votes 18 – 29, and a triumph among 50 – 64 year olds?
How does this pass without mention?
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@El Cid: Judging by some of the comments over there last Thursday I would not be surprised here one or two of there posters committed suicide.
Bruce S
I just got a tweet from Jack Welch claiming the Chicago Boys have gotten to Gallup and no way is Obama 5 points up!
El Cid
Compare the “likely voter” results from Pew, with the aforesaid zero responses in the 18 – 29 yo demographic, with the “registered voter” results for the same.
(Detailed Pew results PDF here.)
Among the “registered voter” category, Obama wins among 18 – 29 yo 52 0 35, and still wins the 50 – 64 yo vote (52 – 40), and losing to Romney the 30 – 49 yo and 65+ vote.
Broken down by region, among “Likely Voters,” Obama wins the Northeast and West, and loses the Midwest and South. And the sample size is greater in the South, anyway.
Among “Registered Voters,” Obama still wins the Northeast and West, ties in the Midwest, and loses the South.
By “Ideology,” Obama wins the “Moderate” category among “Likely Voters” 56 – 36, and “Liberal” 85 – 9. Unsurprisingly, he loses “Conservative” 22 – 74. The responses are almost identical among “Registered Voters”.
Obama’s getting 22% of the “Conservative” vote? 25% of Registered Voters who describe themselves as “Conservative” will vote Obama? Really?
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@El Cid:
er, isn’t that complete flip on the demographics in every poll?
CaliCat
The liberals insisting Romney “won” a contest that has no real scoring (see Lawrence O’Donnell)are so investing in this meme you’d think they’d bet their paycheck on the over/under.
By the way, Romney lost.
El Cid
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques: How can you even claim to address national voting preferences with a zero response in the 18 to 29 year old category?
Hill Dweller
@El Cid: The numbers for women are also strange. How did Obama lose an 18 point lead in less than a month?
Bruce S
Gallup also has unemployment down to 7.5% – suggesting that Axe’s goons have taken Gallup’s grandkids hostage.
1badbaba3
So will we have to speak Mormon now?
Liberty60
I am still watching OH; RCP still has it averaging as +3 Obama.
Rmoney pretty much can’t win without it.
El Cid
@Bruce S: Piss them off by mentioning that under Obama, unemployment never rose above 10%, whereas under Reagan, it went up to 10.8.
So, since both Reagan in his first term and Obama in his first (of 5 terms, after ACORN rewrites the Constushun) term by September of the election year returned unemployment to the rate it was upon inauguration, Obama did better than Reagan.
It’s Morning in America.
Dark, Kenyan, Shari’a Law Morning in America, now with Extra New Black ACORN Panther Party.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@1badbaba3:
Not only that, we’ll have to wear magical undies, mom jeans, and have any fashion sense surgically removed.
Seanly
@El Cid:
That goes with some CNN concern trolling about how Millenials are going to keep themselves and their hipster glasses & fedoras home or else vote for Rmoney coz his mom jeans and paleolithic Mormom attitudes match their style. I’ll miss seeing those young folks in vests over a t-shirt on election day.
El Cid
@Seanly: How many 18 year olds go to the trouble of registering to vote in order not to turn out to vote?
@Hill Dweller: Well, remember, there were no likely voting women 18 – 29.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik:
This, all of it. Polls don’t switch over by margins of almost 10 points because of one debate. Didn’t in 2008, didn’t in 2004 or 2000. Didn’t in 1992 or 1980, either.
Never have before, so why now?
If one debate is all it took for Romney to suddenly become President, the fix was in already.
Violet
People seem to think at the VP debate that Biden is going to gaffe-machine the Dems to a big loss. I don’t see that happening, but if they’re underestimating Biden, I think that’s a good thing.
Not sure just how hard he can stomp Ryan, but I’m hoping it’s epic.
Tom Q
Okay, if anyone cares, my take:
The debate was obviously a disaster for the good guys. Polling done in the days just after (including not just the debate, but the hair-tearing on MSNBC and other Democratic homes) was terrible for Obama. (Though, somewhat resasuringly, while Obama dropped, Romney never vaulted above 50%)
The Saturday/Sunday polling is, by all accounts we’ve heard so far, MUCH better for Obama, enough to push averages back up near normal-since-September. This suggests the great Romney numbers on Thursday/Friday, while measurable (people were literally respomding this way to pollsters), were not indicative of REAL CHANGE, but more like the ephemeral shift you sometimes see from headline events. In that sense, it’s like the convention bounce Romney never got.
I see this debate aftermath as similar to that after the Reagan/Mondale first debate in ’84, where Reagan looked addled as hell. For a week or so, there was actually some murmuring that Mondale could win after all, despite Reagan’s seemingly insuperable advantages. But all Reagan needed to do was show that the guy voters saw in that debate was not a permanent presence — which he did easily enough with a prepared one-liner — and the electorate returned to its original preferences. Similarly: voters want to be reassured that the comatose Obama they saw in that debate is not All There Is. I’d say the chances of Obama repeating that performance are less than zero. Once voters are given that sign, they’ll vote to re-elect like trhey’ve always wanted to. The rest is media hot air.
If you’re going to live and die with poll numbers, you’re going to freak out at moments like these. I’ve long advocated for Lichtman’s Keys to the Presidency system — a book subtitled “Predictions without Polls” — because it specifically ignores day-to-day fluctuations like these, and sticks to the fundamentals. The fundamentals say the numbers pre-debate were in line with where the election should go — a charismatic incumbent with an economy not in recession and a great foreign policy triumph OUGHT to win. You can keep that in mind and not go so crazy with moment-by-monent scare headlines. Or not, if it’s your preference.
El Cid
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: Well, given that according to this Pew poll, Obama’s now going to get 1/4 the Conservative vote, it should be locked up, right?
Bruce S
@El Cid:
“Obama did better than Reagan”
I’m waiting for Obama to send missiles to Iran so he can…uh…you know, be as great as Reagan.
1badbaba3
@Higgs Boson’s Mate: I suppose carrying a tune and keeping time are right out also too?
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@El Cid:
Confused as to what point you’re making.
From this article:
Massive Facepalm.
Seriously, America? Are you seriously that fucking stupid?
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@Violet:
Unlike Romney Ryan just can’t lie on an epic scale. Ryan wants to still have a political career after November. I suspect it will be less Biden curb stomps him and more Ryan truth telling.
El Cid
@Bruce S: Reagan tried to get rid of Qaddafi.
Guess who did?
The Dangerman
Will there be an NFL thread for tonights 666th MNF game? Would Tebow starting be the Sign Of The Beast?
El Cid
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:
That if we take the current Pew poll making headlines seriously as reflecting the electoral demographic, it has Obama gathering about 1/4 of either the registered or likely voters who label themselves “Conservative”. If we extrapolate as loosely as current headlines do from the same poll, it would indicate a strong Obama vote among political conservatives.
Davis X. Machina
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: Obama’s been president for nearly four years, Mitt Romney not so much. That’s all that means.
Capt. Seaweed
@Tom Q:
A calm, measured response. How refreshing.
El Cid
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:
Yes. Yes we are. We either did or close enough re-elected George W. Bush Jr. in 2004. And lots of Americans credited him with keeping us safe.
PreservedKillick
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques:
If Ryan wants to have a political career after November, he has to do nothing but lie at an epic scale. And he will, just like Romney, just like Scott Brown, etc. When it’s all you’ve got, that’s what you use.
The question is whether Biden will be able to refute those lies.
Or, after Obama’s “performance” last week, whether he even tries, I guess.
Welcome to the post-truth world.
And yeah, I’d say that whoever wins in November, we’re pretty well and truly fucked if this sort of thing is allowed to go on – and all indications are that we have no effective defense against this tactic (the MSM is on the sidelines or down for the count, bloggers can’t discredit the bullshit effectively, etc.)
Elizabelle
@Tom Q:
Worth tuning in for.
I think you’re right.
Ben Franklin
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:
Seriously, America? Are you seriously that fucking stupid?
Mentally lazy. They’ve picked up on the short-cut to decisions with the ‘After 4 years if he ain’t doin the job, get someone else’ trope. Romney is new; ergo newer ideas.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@1badbaba3:
Rhythm is for contraception only.
Davis X. Machina
@PreservedKillick: Giving and telling people what they want to get, and to hear, is going to happen rather a lot in a polity where things are decided by popular vote.
scott
Today was a middling day, which doesn’t support either saying we’re doomed or that there’s nothing to worry about. To the extent ABL and others are mad about the hyperventilating, why get mad at us? We’re not the ones (or The One) who inexplicably decided to take a powder during his own re-election campaign and lift his opponent off the floor, who reasonably enough decided to keep fighting. I think Obama will probably be OK, if he decides to fight for his own re-election when it’s just him and the other guy in a room. We can have all the good positive thoughts we’re being urged to have, but the direction comes from the top and from the guy who planted the seed of panic to begin with. It’s up to him now over the next two weeks during the debates – we can’t carry him all the time; he has to start pulling his own weight.
trollhattan
@PreservedKillick:
Ryan’s a motormouth with better hard-encoding of Republican bromides and talking points than Willard. I expect him to spew forth without stumbling, and talk over anybody who might try to get in the way.
It’s going to seem like he and Biden are at two different events, and I’m not expecting anything dramatic to occur.
McJulie
@CaliCat:
So true. It’s almost as if some liberals are so accustomed to losing that they instantly slip back into that groove, given the slightest provocation. Similarly, right wingers are so accustomed to strutting about wearing their “Mission Accomplished” codpieces that they slip back into the “WINNING!” groove at a similarly slight provocation.
I get why right wingers would be stuck on an “Obama lost, bitchz, suck it!” narrative — but why are liberals so quick to embrace the exact same narrative?
KXB
Larry Pressler, former Republican senator from South Dakota, endorses Obama
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Violet: somebody said on the TeeVee today, that if you think Joe Biden is the SNL/GOP caricature is in for a big surprise. I’m sure Ryan has been getting the same Rocky-like training Willard got to seem less creepy at the debate, but Ryan really strikes me as not ready for prime time, and old white people, from what I’ve read, really like Biden.
gogol's wife
@scott:
You wrote, “we can’t carry him all the time; he has to start pulling his own weight.” Are you serious? What have you done for the country?
1badbaba3
@Higgs Boson’s Mate: Who could ask for anything more?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@scott:
smells like Team PUMA
Lojasmo
@Spankyslappybottom:
Need for better trolls in evidence.
Betsy
@blingee: hey kid. Lay off and shut up. Stop being a know it all.
Chyron HR
@scott:
Ha ha! Zing! Got any more true progressive bon mots you lifted directly from Rush Limbaugh?
TexasMango
@Punchy: Well that settles it. I’m going to put money on R-Money winning. How can I stay optimistic when a bad outcome has been portended?
Higgs Boson's Mate
@scott:
WTF? He looked tired, he does have a day job. The seeds of panic were all planted, nurtured and brought to ripeness by assholes like you. Carry Obama? You can’t even carry yourself you sodding concern troll motherfucker.
Tom Q
@Capt. Seaweed: @Elizabelle: Glad to be appreciated.
scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nope, I’ve voted solid ticket D since 1984. But the debates are his job, not mine, and he choked. I hope he does better, but that’s just it, hope – it’s up to him, and that load belongs to him rather than to any of us, whether or not we want to make excuses for him.
Shawn in ShowMe
@trollhattan:
It will be a matchup of the angry young white man vs. the angry old white man. Pundits will agree that Obama needs to take notes and be more “assertive” going forward. And he should do this while not appearing too angry.
TexasMango
@scott: Carry him all the time? As in he’s lazy?
John Sununu is that you?
some guy
wait a minute, this can’t be right, Political Observer assured us all that come Sunday Rmoney’s standing in the Gallup daily tracking poll would show us what an amazing bounce his debate win would be.
what went wrong?
cinesimon
I actually think that this entire race is now in the hands of the media. The undecideds are that lazy, and have p[aid that little attention to what both candidates have been doing and saying these last few years, that the media can simply go with Romney’s latest and most overtly dishonest revamp from unapologetic, hard right tea party candidate, to a Bush-style ‘compassionate conservative’. I’d not be surprised if he dropped his religion so he could have a beer with a suit dressed as a miner.
But as Paul Krugman recently pointed out, the media simply can not deal with this level of dishonesty. It used to be kinda true that the larger media outfit were simply relaying whatever message a candidate wanted to present. But there used to be some level f visible truth telling. Now, they really have begun to use their power the way right wing churches do: exploit the trust of their readers, and manipulate them to vote for the wallets of the newspaper owners. Romney gave them a very easy package to sell, and they’re doing it very well.
If this and being very concerned about the effect of voter disfranchisement means I’m some kind of hair-on-fire hysteric, then fuck ya. It’s reality. I guess the glass half-full perspective is that this situation can be used as extra motivation for those who have to jump through SO many hoops just to be allowed to vote – but no: let’s disparage out allies and tell them the attacks on democracy are all in our head.
Lower your eyes, and let your betters do the thinking and voting…
Bruce S
@El Cid:
Romney? Must have been Romney!
CaliCat
@McJulie:
Thank you! Pointing out where the president could have done better is fine but yes, many liberal-ish men are siding with the bully because they’re afraid to side with their guy who refused to play Romney’s bluster game. No way wing-nuts (who are also cowards but in a different way) would run crying to the nearest corner and wet themselves the way the reactionary left has done after that debate.
Jamey
Seriously, do. We’ll set a two places: you and a plus-one.
Also, let me return the favor by cross-posting a response to Zandar: Fuck Buzz Bissinger. He landed a permanent spot on my ADS (asshole detection system) when he decided to shit all over bloggers: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/sports/football/01sandomir.html
cinesimon
Oh and the panic about the debates?
Sheesh.
Sure it’s “his job”. But it’s not his only job. And all the evidence over many years suggests that the debates don’t work the way pundits always try to convince us they work. Romney did basically the same thing as Palin did in 2008, only without the fake folsky screech. Most people who bother to watch the debates, and who have watched Romney for a while, know how overtly dishonest he was. I’d say the poll shift was already coming.
The only way Obama could have otherwise reacted, was by simply telling Romney that every time he opened his mouth, that he was lying and a liar. That would not have gone down well with the electorate. I really do think, though it was very likely not Obama’s strategy, that Romney hung himself with his fake liberal-ish centrism. We know the right wing base is very fragile when it comes to supporting him, and when he suddenly tells the country that he doesn’t stand by anything he had campaigned on up to then – except ‘no extra “revenue”‘, he’s in trouble at the other end of the electorate.
Not Sure
@blingee: Yep. Could have been the best thing Bam could have done – just let Mittens talk. He’s his own worst enemy, after all. There will be time to come out swinging in the next round, like Ali before him. Float like a butterfly, and sting like a bee, and all of that.
Just Some Fuckhead
I think it’s a little retarded to create a position that you consider “bad”, then attribute it to the monolithic “liberals”.
I remember the night of the debate and subsequent days. There was just as many Obots losing their shit over the debate as anyone else.
And, FWIW, Sully ain’t no liberal.
blingee
@Bruce S: Either you are dumb or just want to take my comment out of context because…”because shut up that’s why”. Who the fuck knows what goes on in the heads of you pea brains.
blingee
@Just Some Fuckhead: lol…Sully….I do appreciate when one of the moronic bloggers around here starts off with “I was reading Sully today and….”. They save me from wasting my time by reading any further.
karen
Isn’t the EC the only thing that really means anything? Obama needs NY -done, California – done, then has a choice of any of the battleground states like Florida, Pennsylvania, OH and MI. Not to mention the other blue states. Romney still has a harder time getting to 270 than Obama does. Isn’t that the case or is there something I’m missing.
Bruce S
@blingee:
Sorry, but your comment about how “it would be dumb to win” was predicated on presumed “context” that is idiotic – or tautological, at best.
karen
@Shawn in ShowMe:
So the Angry Black Ni~CLANG narrative the Romney Campaign had been spewing leading up to the debate would have nothing to do with Romney’s attempts to provoke Obama by lying so blatantly so Obama could attack him on that would it?
jwb
@Violet: The fact that they were hitting the Pew poll means NPR believes the other poll. From their perspective of pure ephemeral news, that makes sense. It’s the same reasoning as Gallup doing that weird analysis of last week’s number an hour before dropping Sunday’s number. In any case, most of the Pew numbers are from Thursday and Friday; the Gallup numbers show a strong Sunday for Obama, so by Wednesday or Thursday things will have settled back and then they can run with the other numbers.
JenJen
@Tom Q: Thank you for that.
I’m reminded of that fleeting moment in 2004 when Kerry cleaned Bush’s clock in the first debate, and my GOP coworkers and bar guests were gloomy. It probably felt as long a week to them as it does to us now. I don’t recall the way the polls looked then; I just remember the way it ended.
Thursday will be interesting. “They” always say VP debates don’t matter, but I’m again reminded of the way Cheney clearly “beat” Edwards in their debate, and the narrative and momentum shifted again. It would shift a few more times before Election Day, but what I most remember is the way it ended.
AxelFoley
@Spankyslappybottom:
Dude, go eat a bag of salted dicks.
AxelFoley
@var:
I think you need to get your head out of your ass. Polls show President Obama with the lead, him getting a bump from the jobs report, and RMoney’s “bump” fading.
Hill Dweller
@jwb: Even Bush propagandist Ari Fleischer is backing away from the Pew poll.
El Cid
@JenJen: There was something different in that time, though.
As crucial as the election was, there was also another context: the Bush Jr. regime had established a worshiped, authoritarian atmosphere where anyone challenging it was dismissed, clamped down, ran out of town, and of course called unpatriotic.
It was worthwhile for the country to finally have Bush Jr. being dressed down on national television (by John Kerry) just to see that be done again.
I haven’t known that atmosphere at any other point in my lifetime.
Yes, I wish it had let to the C Plus Augustus being let go, but it didn’t.
Funny enough, this is how conservatives see the situation with Obama: Obama is this unchallenged authoritarian, no one stands up to him, and finally Romney confronted the Emperor and they’re all happy because someone took on the Obama ACORN death panel, because before this they were all silenced via the War on Christmas or something.
DFH no.6
Here’s my $0.02, now that the thread is probably dead:
Despite what some apologists (bloggers, commenters, people on the TV, etc.) have been saying about Obama in this first debate, it really was the worst performance of any presidential candidate in any debate I’ve seen (and FSM help me, I’ve seen all of them from 1976 on, and one of my earliest childhood memories is all the folks over our house watching the Kennedy-Nixon debate in ’60).
Good lord, even Ford of the “Soviet Union does not dominate Eastern Europe, and will not under a Ford Admin” debate did not do as poorly as Obama did just last week.
Some, laughingly, claimed they thought Obama “won’ the debate.
Sorry, no — what color is the sky in your world? Or, I’d really like to have what you’re smoking, cuz my best CA bud in the stash is rankest ditch-weed compared to your shit, obviously.
Obama seemed more than just tired and unprepared (maybe a 5-hour energy drink and a little note reminding him – “watch for the etch-a-sketch; Romney’s going to flip and lie his ass off!!” – might have helped). He was positively listless, and allowed an energetic Romney to dominate him (to say nothing of the worthless Lehrer, but that old has-been’s not running to keep his job as leader of the free world, is he?).
Anyone claiming they think Obama won the debate is being flat-out delusional (and so is making a big deal about some “meta-win” where the Obama campaign now gets to use all the juicy Romney flip-flops and lies from the debate in campaign ads, like maybe that was the rope-a-dope plan all along or some bullshit).
So, Obama very unnecessarily gave Romney an opening, and some hope, when the Romney campaign had been reeling badly for weeks. Shit job by Obama, period.
Ultimately, how important to the election? Who knows? If Obama doesn’t repeat his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad first debate performance, likely not much. That’s all on him.
For the rest of us, GOTV – most especially, of course, in the “battleground states” – is where it’s at, and I’m doing my little part (even leaving my not-in-play – for president – state of AZ to spend the last couple weeks of the campaign in my ancestral home of Ohio to volunteer full-time).
Marc McKenzie
@Higgs Boson’s Mate:
“Carry Obama? You can’t even carry yourself you sodding concern troll motherfucker.”
Damn. That’s definitely going to leave a mark.
(The rest isn’t directed at you. Just a disclaimer.)
As for me, I am pretty much fed up with the rending of garments and the gnashing of teeth. He wasn’t at his best–but let’s be blunt–Romney lied his ass off. Repeatedly. While looking like he was ready to give a pretzel a run for its money about how many twists he could have.
Try arguing–or rather, calmly debating–someone who does this, and does not cease to do so. Could you do it? Could you hold on to your sanity and cool without losing your damned mind and, in the end, just giving in to the temptation to run over and pummel the asshole with a series of left-rights?
Yeah. Think it over.
The MSM blew this–more than the President. They gave the debate “victory” to a lying sack of….well, I can’t figure out the right word at the moment. A man who not only lied his rear end off but also threatened to terminate the job of one of their colleagues. When they should have been fact-checking and asking, “Wait, that’s not what he said before! He’s flip-flopping!” they instead chose to perform verbal fellatio.
We took a hit. It’s happened before–remember DADT’s repeal? HCR? Any number of times when it looked like O was knocked down hard? Well, he got right back up again and charged in and triumphed. After there had been the same wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual suspects.
We didn’t do well in this round. There will be others. Get a new pair of diapers and grow your own spine (instead of demanding that the Dems do).
Higgs Boson's Mate
@Marc McKenzie:
Nicely put. Years in the Navy left me with a tendency to use profanity and little regard for whiners.
Lojasmo
@scott:
Oh, FUCK…YOU.
And all you other whistling ninnies here. Obama did just what he had to do. Keep calm, and tell the truth. It absolutely “seems” like he lost the debate, but he did not.
Romney blathered and lied for nearly an hour, and the takeaway message was that big bird dies.
BIden is going to stomp Ryan, the ad cycle will be brutal, using only Romney’s words.
OBama is going to run circles around Romney in the town hall, and in the third debate.
CHILL THE FUCK OUT.
AliceBlue
This thread is probably on its last legs, but I recommend reading Nate Silver’s latest column. I did and I feel calmer.
Joel
Net effect: republican enthusiasm is up (back to recent historical averages), few minds changed, however. This means that we will have to work *hard* to get the vote out. Game on, motherfuckers.
Joel
Net effect: republican enthusiasm is up (back to recent historical averages), few minds changed, however. This means that we will have to work *hard* to get the vote out. Game on, motherfuckers.
JenJen
@El Cid: I think maybe the Republicans feel the way now that we did about Bush, though, in a way we’re not completely appreciating. I know the comparison is ridiculous; I’m just trying to put myself in their clown shoes, is all.
I remember so clearly the way October 2004 felt. And you’re right; the Bush support felt authoritarian, I mean, weren’t they screening supporters at rallies and everything? It felt meaner. But not that much meaner than it does now, with the roles reversed, but still, mean. More passionate. Hotter.
I’m not insisting that history will repeat, I’m just recalling that autumn, and how weird and scary and wired it felt, and it’s starting to feel that way now in a way it didn’t in the autumn of 2008. At least from my Ohio vantage point, where national elections always feel hot.
Kadzimiel
The Pew poll is pretty unconvincing:
GOP +3 on party ID over Democrats
Minorities 16% of voters
An electorate heavily weighted to the south
Lots of older voters
If Romney can only manage +4 with that sample, he’s in trouble in real life.
Incidentally, Sullivan (and Tomasky) have gone into full technicolor emo-meltdown, suggesting that Obama is bored and wants to throw the election.
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
I’m sick of NPR’s all-too-frequent brand of reporting that goes a little like this: “President Obama offered twelve scientifically sound reasons to do X, Y, and Z. (4-second sound-byte follows.) Crazy Republican pundit/bottom-drawer politician says, ‘What a bunch of hooey!’ (15-second sound-byte follows).”
When did NPR relinquish its task to perform something resembling investigative reporting?
Keith G
@DFH no.6: The words you type are most unwelcome.
And, I’d wager, mostly correct.
Ron
The one thing I’m seeing is that the likely voter poll by Gallup coming out tomorrow will have the race pretty much tied. There’s no doubt that there’s some bad polling news for Obama, but I’ll be more worried if in a week he’s in the same iffy position.
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
I hope Obama and his staff wake the fuck up and show up at the next debate with an ‘A’ game. I wish the moderator would actually do more than tremble and sputter.
J R in WV
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques:
I can’t decide if you are stupid, deluded, evil or just ignorant.
There is a cure for ignorance, the other problems are more intractable.
Please go away now.
lacp
Jeez, almost 250 comments five days after the big show, and still flogging it. How soon we forget what’s really important….UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!
TexasMango
@jwb: You’d think they would do a better job for the guy who isn’t promising the defund them.
Seanly
@West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.):
Isn’t the next moderator the terrible Candy Crowley?
geg6
@Seanly:
Yeah, I think you’re right. Gawd, I detest that woman.
On the bright side, she’s not the execreble Wolf Blitzer.
Triassic Sands
Hmm. Checking RealClearPolitics, it looks to me like the latest Gallup poll has the race tied. The five point lead is from the penultimate poll.
Trying to pretend that Obama’s debate performance did not hurt is the kind of spin I expect from Wingers.
Has Obama lost the race? No. Could he have put it out of reach if he’d performed well in the first debate? Maybe. In the second debate, will he be able to repair the damage he did to himself in the first debate? Doubtful, since it’s a town hall format. His best bet this time around is probably to appear confident and assertive, and hope that Romney, all juiced up from his almost over the top first debate, will screw himself.
In a previous thread, one commenter wrote that he/she thought the first debate was part of the Obama campaign’s grand campaign design. Sorry, but losing a debate, especially losing decisively, is unlikely to ever be part of a sane candidate’s strategy.
Watching Obama in the first debate, I thought, it might have been a good idea for him to have spent fifteen minutes a week for the past 3-1/2 years being coached to avoid stammering, umming, and uhhing in his speech. While it has nothing to do with his ability to be a good chief executive, it does affect his ability to appear decisive and assertive, something most people expect from a president, which is something that affects his ability to be reelected.
Before the debate, I read at least one blog opinion that did a good job of explaining what happens after a debate. If the MSM decides one candidate was a clear winner, they will begin to harp on it, and that sentiment will be reflected in polling. That has happened when the MSM decided that a marginal winner, and even a marginal loser, actually won the debate decisively. This time, it took no stretch to see Obama as the clear loser. Apparently, Obama, himself, was startled by how badly he did (after watching debate video).
slightly_peeved
@Triassic Sands:
Nope. Reading Gallup’s website, the ‘race even’ result was just taken from the three post-debate days in their tracking poll. The 7-day average is back to +5 for Obama, suggesting the above Gallup result didn’t include Sunday’s results, which were significantly better for Obama.
Keep calm and read 538, people.
Sammy
@Spankyslappybottom: How in the name of all that is holy can you consider someone who lied 27 times in 38 minutes a winner? Pres Obama offered substantive answers while Mitt offered proven lies.
Are you really this dumb?
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
Good point, Sammy… The poster you challenge here (I won’t write his/her name because it is just too juvenile) likely doesn’t really care about the truth. I think it’s like rooting for a team you know plays dirty, outspends the competition to build a monster roster, and cheats every chance it gets — ah, but it’s your team, so who gives a shit? I guess integrity ain’t worth what it used to be….
halfcynic
The Gallup poll that shows a five point lead is registered voters. Tomorrow they’re switching to “likely,” which will bring them to a tie. However, it *is* still two points better than the last poll, which was also registered voters.
Guh, I don’t know. I didn’t watch much of it. Was it so much that he was *that bad,* or that everyone expected him to crush Romney and instead, well, it was really bad *for him?* I mean, faint praise, but at least he didn’t say anything memorably bad, either.
Also, was it or was it not his twentieth anniversary that very night? No one seems to mention it. It’s not an excuse, fuck knows, but I mean, if it seemed like he really didn’t want to be there, that seems like a believable added reason.
Hopefully he got some sleep and a sharp boot in the ass since then, not necessarily in that order.
I think the only sound bite anyone can remember is the Big Bird business. It’s still not enough to give Obama a “win,” but it’s not exactly the sort of thing the winning candidate wants to be remembered for either, I don’t think, even taking the most cynical assumption that no one knows or cares that Romney was lying like Donald Trump’s hairpiece the entire time.
halfcynic
538 is not a particularly cheerful read at the moment, I have to say. Although, the fact that Romney is now *up* to a 25% chance of winning still doesn’t exactly put Mitt in a wonderful place. It just shouldn’t ever have gotten this close at all, dammit, and, well, now we have to count on the next few debates going much better.
fuckwit
Incumbents almost always fuck up on debates. Presidential, Senatorial, Congressional, fucking dog catcher, it doesn’t matter.
Why? Because they’re busy DOING SHIT, not just throwing rocks and spouting bullshit. Hell, even if they are spouting bullshit, they still botch the debates.
I’m glad people mentioned Kerry in 2004– Bush looked worn out in the debates. Won anyway.
Reagan looked awful in 1984 debates, trounced Mondale anyway.
Clinton got lucky in 1996 because he had Bob Dole across the podium, everyone (that I knew, anyway) was rich and getting richer, and nobody was paying any fucking attention anyway.
Bush the First looked haggard in 1992, but probably would have won anyway if it hadn’t been for Perot.
Debates, whatever. No information gets communicated in those anyway. It’s a prom-queen contest for the infantile press to fawn over and turn into some kind of big circus.
Triassic Sands
@Sammy:
I’m going to assume that most BJ commenters are significantly more engaged in politics than are the persuadable voters who watched the debate.
Since style trumps substance in presidential debates (and in American life in general), I’m don’t understand why you’re surprised someone would consider Romney a decisive winner.
I despise Romney, but after 30 minutes of watching the debate, I turned it off and read. Why? Because it was clear to me that by the metrics relevant to presidential debates Obama was getting slaughtered. Worse, he was doing as much to beat himself as Romney was.
Now, do I think Romney’s answers were better? No. Was he factually more accurate? Of course not. Was he assertive, animated, and decisive? Yep. Was Obama? Nope. End of story.
Probably the biggest reason why I am disappointed in this country and not optimistic about its future is because of the general quality of the average voter in the US. However, in a debate, the decisive voters may not even be average. Hence, debates are a travesty, like most of the rest of modern political campaigns.
brantl
@Enhanced Mooching Techniques: Really, how fucking stupid are you? Romney’s “position” is on the street corner with his panties around his ankles and his bra at his knees. “Romney’s position”, you knucklewalker.