Me voting in 2016 vs me voting in 2018 pic.twitter.com/wM8l1uGvLe
— Jennifer Reitman (@JenniferReitman) November 5, 2018
CNN livestream of election coverage is available without requiring logging in to a cable provider from 5 p.m. ET Tuesday until 9 a.m. ET Wednesday, info below ⬇️ https://t.co/ozhVpAcEmZ
— Amanda Golden (@amandawgolden) November 6, 2018
Make no mistake: gun safety is on the ballot this election. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to shape the debate on this issue. Be a part of history, and make sure your friends and family are too. Tell them to vote today. #GunSafetyWins pic.twitter.com/SxiaPItrcN
— Gabrielle Giffords (@GabbyGiffords) November 6, 2018
Fun Fact: The Civil Rights Division hasn't filed a single case alleging racial voter discrimination since Trump took office.https://t.co/zL7SgeUJBf
— Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) November 6, 2018
Per CNN exit poll, 76% said recent political violence was important or very important factor in their vote.
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@HoarseWisperer) November 6, 2018
— Warren Leight (@warrenleightTV) November 6, 2018
the first transport is away
the first transport is away https://t.co/aRrCjlv7EZ
— Zeddy (@Zeddary) November 6, 2018
Baud
Regardless of the results tonight, I hope the civic mindedness we’re seeing is lasting.
khead
Let’s root for hope and change.
Also, Sam Cooke.
Brachiator
All right, I’m out of here. Going home, gonna have dinner, watch a movie, relax and avoid anything about this election until Wednesday morning.
See you all on the other side!
Baud
Um…. phrasing?
Central Planning
Good news from Guam via WaPo:
Hopefully the rest of the night will go the same way
Yarrow
Posted in previous thread:
A judge has ordered nine Harris County polling locations to stay open until 8 pm due to delayed opening and problems with voting.
If you know someone in the Houston area who hasn’t voted, let them know. They may have an extra hour.
schrodingers_cat
Snooze Hour’s election panel has 4 Rs. Judy Woodruff and Amy Walter are wearing red, coincidence? I think not.
Schlemazel
@Baud:
I just hope nobody expects magic simply because we win tonight. The bastards are going to fight harder and we need to be prepared & redouble our efforts. When things don’t go our way, when some Dem votes on the evil side there will be people proclaiming it the end of the world and both sides are alike. Don’t let that crap go unchallenged. RESIST!
lamh36
Heading into class in bout 1/2 hr…hoping to get our early hopefully hearing good news tonight!
Baud
@Schlemazel: Agree. But that’s tomorrow’s battle. Plus, I hope the lesson from 2016 is that we no longer will put up with that attitude.
lamh36
Yarrow
Oh, hey….
Tick tock, motherfuckers!
Cheryl Rofer
New York Times coverage is free tonight, if you want to watch THE NEEDLE OF TRUMP!
Also, 538 has a live blog going.
I’m gonna read today’s paper for a while. No real results yet, although a bunch of polls are gonna close at the top of the hour. Things should start coming in in an hour or so. Back in a bit.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Baud:
Me too. It just so happens when more people vote, Dems tend to win. That’s a consequence of having policies that most people like.
piratedan
@schrodingers_cat: i fully expect GOP framing and GOP talking points to dominate the coverage…. that’s what the program directors have mandated and as such, the narrative will be set and adhered to, tyvm…
One of the failings of democracy began when the FCC began to allow networks to treat news as entertainment and as such, we really don’t see much fairness in the media these days, Faux is a full on propaganda network, as are anything tied to ONN and Sinclair. the old school guys are so busy trying to be Faux Lite that they miss honest reporting and that’s just the broadcast media, places like NPR and the NYT have been co-opted for the most part as well, pretty fucking sad that so many of us have to stagger through endless misrepresentations of policy and repurcussions and plain old stupidity that’s its a wonder how anyone stays informed.
Frankensteinbeck
There are lots of takes I would love to see happen, but if we take over the House, I will sleep easy. That’s what I’m biting my nails over.
khead
@Schlemazel:
Just win baby. I can worry about the rest of that shit tomorrow.
PsiFighter37
@piratedan: One of many terrible things St. Ronnie did. Fuck that guy.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Baud:
What’s wrong with it?
Llelldorin
The early results are always super-depressing, because there’s a reason they’re the early results—they’re states that decided to close the polls at 6pm instead of at a time that someone could get to after work.
Baud
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Pro or anti?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Baud:
Oh. I assume they didn’t break that down in another question? Honestly, that could blow either way. I’ve read plenty of rightists that think all of the violence is on the left.
Schlemazel
@khead:
There is nothing left to do today, I am scouting for candidates for 2020 and figuring out how I can make any impact then. This fight never ends & the GOPpers never quit.
I spoke to a guy at work today who has never been involved in politics and was an irregular voter. His wife went all in this fall and spent many hours working for Dems in her district & MN. Her State Rep candidate was so impressed with her personality that she took her along on door knocking with her. She has never been to a caucus hnd has no idea how they or the party work. I told him a lot of stuff and how they should be prepared to go in 2020 and how if she was that well received she should consider maybe a run for city council similar. She is smart & wants to do good
Uncle Cosmo
@schrodingers_cat: They figure they don’t have to worry about the Democrats cutting their funding – they only have to placate the Thugs. If (fingers crossed) the Democrats take the House & come within a whisker of the Senate, someone needs to sit down with those Nice Polite Republicans & let them know they have two years to mend their mendacious ways, otherwise we are completely prepared to cut them off without a cent. Better no “public media” at all than one that pretends to be impartial but isn’t.
Origuy
Possible pickup in KY-6; Amy McGrath has 50.5%. It’s only 5.6% of the vote, but the district includes Lexington and Frankfurt.
Uncle Cosmo
@Schlemazel:
And while we’re at it,
schrodingers_cat
Amy fucking Walter says that both Rs and Ds are enthusiastic. And the annoying giggling. I don’t want see your fucking teeth.
Baud
@Schlemazel:
Traitor.
danielx
A reminder of what’s at stake, unneeded though it is:
I used to believe that bit about how demography is destiny. But the fucksticks in charge of the Republican Party have determined that if the only way to maintain their power and policies is, as Malcolm put it, by any means necessary, then….so be it. The likes of Mitch McConnell will not given up power until it is torn from their hands.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: We’ll find out soon enough.
Yarrow
First results from FL show Gillum and Nelson ahead. I know, I know, it’s way too early to mean much of anything. Still, would rather be ahead than behind.
Tony Jay
The BBC Election coverage has a line across the bottom scroll showing the number of House seats already called. They’ve got the parties labelled as Democrat and Republican.
Fucking ‘Democrat’. They piss me off so much.
Oh, and it’s apparent they are very bored when anyone mentions the State level races other than the ‘interesting’ ones that will “tell them something”.
And Wilmer gets a D tag when reporting that he’s held onto his Far Northern Demesne, because why not?
Schlemazel
@Uncle Cosmo:
Come sit by me!
@Baud:
You can’t run for every job!
Cheryl Rofer
They are starting to call winners, but it looks like only the obvious ones. I think Bernie in Vermont, too.
Baud
@Schlemazel: Ha! I assumed 2020 referred to the presidential election. Shame on me.
Baud
@Tony Jay:
Are you sure it’s labelling the party and not the candidate?
Miss Bianca
@Yarrow: I hope you realize how much it makes us all smile when you say that!
Tony Jay
Though the correspondent reporting from Florida is making a point of referring to the Democratic Party.
Why yes she is female and brown, why do you ask?
And now let’s talk to a woman from the Heritage Foundation. Bleauugh!
BlueDWarrior
I want to throw up right now… then again it’s like this every Election Night.
dr. bloor
@Tony Jay: If the Brits get out of line we’ll kick their asses again. Save your rage for the American media.
Schlemazel
@Yarrow:
My dad was deeply involved in State politics, Central Committee member, Precinct chair, lots of connections. By this time of night he could look at vote total numbers in specific precincts and tell if it was going to be close or who would win. When counts started to come he would look at certain numbers & say “Nope, he won there but not by enough to overcome over here” or similar. He was never wrong unless it was too close to call. I miss that
ruemara
I’m seriously getting angry at woke social media. First they’re bashing Oprah for saying that people died for the right to vote. Now, they’re calling the honest facts of the fight for voting rights as “vote shaming”. How do these people breathe & chew gum? We did nothing better than ignore wokeistan. They’re as bad as Trumpers and it doesn’t matter how much they’re for free college and M4A. Awful people.
Kathleen
@lamh36: Happy Birthday!
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
Well, they’re foreigners so they get a pass from me.
Define “interesting”. If by state-level you mean governorships then all of them are pretty interesting. Or at least most of them. I think 3 or 4 are competitive. I have to wonder if having a different political system combined with being a foreign country is contributing to this.
Does the UK not have independents?
Yarrow
@ruemara: How much of “woke” social media is real and how much of it is bots? Both sides are being manipulated to push certain agendas. Here’s an example from the other side:
PaulWartenberg
All I want tonight is sanity.
I want Kemp to lose Georgia in spite of all his cheating ways – broken machines? no power cords? This sh-t is INTENTIONAL – and then I want to see his ass in jail for voting rights violations.
I want Stacy Abrams to make history tonight as Georgia’s first black woman Governor.
I want Andrew Gillum to make history tonight as Florida’s first black Governor.
I want Bill Nelson to win so Rick “Medicare Fraud” Scott goes home and ends up in jail for all his goddamn crookery.
I want every House seat to flip Blue.
I want Mitch McConnell to lose the Senate Majority.
I want every Far Right wingnut threatening to retaliate in violence if they lose to all get struck by God’s Mighty Anvil.
That would bring me sanity.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@ruemara:
Some RW moron called me “woke” one time. I’ve been “woke” since like 2012 because I pay attention.
Tony Jay
@Baud:
It goes HOUSE / DEMOCRAT 2 / REPUBLICAN 6 / 8/435 called
I get what you’re saying but it looks to me that that’s how they’re labelling the Parties.
Cheryl Rofer
Roger Moore
@danielx:
There’s some truth to the idea that demography is destiny; that’s why the Republicans are so eager to control who is allowed into the country. But as the Jim Crow South proved, it’s possible to hold out for a long time against demographic change if you care more about victory than democracy. This is one big reason the Democrats have to push hard for a new VRA; demographics will tell a lot sooner if everyone is allowed to vote.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@ruemara: It’s almost like they’re a bunch of humorless contrarian gadflies who enjoy criticizing others instead of working to fix the big social problems they profess to care about!
Tony Jay
@dr. bloor:
I am British. I’m paying for the BBC. The degree to which they suck offends me at a personal level. And it’s not like they – can’t – do better, they just don’t want to. It’s easier to slavishly copy the worst of US Mainstream media. Access and cocktail parties, don’t you know.
Yarrow
@Tony Jay: This could cheer you up re: Brexit:
rikyrah
@ruemara:
They are either stupid or getting paid.
Take your choice.
No middle of the road for me.
Woke my azz
raven
rikyrah
@Yarrow:
Like we didn’t already suspect this.
JPL
No matter what happens tonight, someone needs to campaign against the phony pro-life movement. They don’t even support pre-natal care. Hey I’m pro life and I believe in the right to carry AR15’s to ball fields. It is and has always been a phony movement.
in the words of that great philosopher efgoldman FUCKEM
Mary G
Miss “No marriage certificates for you” may lose her cushy job:
ETA: Sorry, Cheryl, missed your posting this.
ruemara
@rikyrah: How you gonna criticize the people that bled & died for your fucking freedom because you feel guilty for never respecting that freedom as you face losing it? IDC how not right America has been towards POC, it wasn’t as bad as what we went through from the 1800’s through 1970. I love young people but loud and wrong on the internet needs to gain less fame & more derision.
@Yarrow: Nah, these are real people. Real, loud, popularish and dumb AF.
dm
Via 538’s live-blog: Kim (“No you can’t have a certificate for your sinful marriage”) Davis is currently trailing in her re-election bid:
https://twitter.com/HLWright/status/1059959254512218113
https://twitter.com/HLWright
On the Kim Davis race in Rowan County, with 12 of 19 precincts reporting:
Davis (R): 1783
Caudill (D): 2172
(ETA: Cheryl beat me to it)
Yarrow
@rikyrah: Yep. Nice to see it studied and made public, though.
ruemara
@Mary G: Ah, my petty soul has been fed. Bless her bigoted heart. She now has time to find a flattering hairstyle.
dr. bloor
@Tony Jay:
Ah, understood, and understood. Hope you weren’t too offended by my “kicking asses” remark, although we might still find it necessary to sail over if you don’t do something about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage soon.
oatler.
@Roger Moore: I voted a provisional ballot because OF COURSE they had no record of my registration; plus I dripped sweat on the ballot. But it was nice to see so many young cuties voting.
Uh, because Youth Turnout!
Yarrow
@ruemara: Quite a few popular Twitter accounts with many thousands of followers have been shown to be troll accounts. Unless you know them be skeptical.
Aziz, light!
2020 starts tomorrow.
Vote for Baud or we’ll shoot this dog.
NickM
Looks like Amy McGrath is starting to open up a nice lead on the Republican….fingers crossed.
PsiFighter37
McGrath up 10% with a third of the vote in…hope it holds up! Also looks like Wexton is waxing Comstock – up 13% with half the vote in…probably the first pickup that gets called for us.
piratedan
@Aziz, light!: there are times where I do miss the National Lampoon
dm
@NickM: If you don’t remember who Amy McGrath is, this might help: https://youtu.be/CcjG2fK7kNk
Tony Jay
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
By ‘interesting’ they mean places like Georgia and West Virginia and Florida where they can use the result to “tell the story” of what this means for Trump. What they’re ignoring is the down-ticket races that will define the character of state government going forward. They’ve got no excuse for this, the BBC is used to covering British elections and they are virtually all local elections, small constituencies, lots of them. They – could – cover it better, even if only to explain what it means, but they don’t want to. It’s boring.
And over here we have few ‘Independents’ and more small parties that only ever win a few seats in Parliament.
mdblanche
@rikyrah: It could always be both.
ruemara
@Yarrow: I had a debate with one, who’s a middling actress, fame-wise. I needed to understand how or what “vote shaming” is and when I sussed out the very inadequate explanation (you told me how much this cost; now I feel ashamed I spurned it & I’m blaming you); I had to contain my eye laser beams to maintain the civil rapprochement I was trying to do.
Baud
@ruemara: I’m more than happy to shame them.
Cheryl Rofer
debbie
@JPL:
Like Palin insisting that the only true feminists were conservative pro-life women.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Nice.
Mary G
Expected, but good to see, at least one horrible Republican looks to be going down:
ETA: She’s on MazeDancer/Postcards for Patriots map of BJ candidates, so well done us.
Yarrow
@ruemara: Vote shaming as a concept sounds dumb. Either they want to have a voice in the way their community is run or they don’t. If they don’t vote elected officials don’t pay attention to them and their issues don’t get addressed. It’s pretty simple.
PsiFighter37
@Mary G: Read that this was just called. #1 for us tonight…hopefully the first of many.
Barbara
@Mary G: Those margins were not expected. That is a kick ass result, if it comes even within five points of that at the finish line.
MazeDancer
Jennifer Wexton wins!
First BJ Candidate win of the night.
First PostCard Writers win of the night.
Yay, Jennifer!
Baud
@Mary G: Nice.
Tony Jay
@Yarrow:
Oooooohhhhhhh. Be still my heart.
I waffled a bit about this in an earlier thread, but basically a Democratic victory tonight opens up the probability that a real investigation into the 2016 Election makes political.space for a rethink of the Brexit Vote, because the same networks were involved in screwing with both and scumbags like Aaron Banks are up to their fat necks in it.
debbie
@Tony Jay:
Sounds like they’re using them as nouns, not adjectives, which would be Democrat, not Democratic.
Amir Khalid
I hope you guys have the happy outcome Malaysia got in its general election in May.
catatonia
@Mary G:
Wexton outperformed Hillary in that district according to MSNBC. Clinton beat the le monstrosity l’orange by 10. So hope that’s a good sign for the other three VA districts flipping.
dmsilev
538’s live projection is promising so far. Odds of (D) House are up above 90%. Senate, not so good sadly. Still a long way to go, and much stomach acid to churn.
Yarrow
@Tony Jay: I’m with you and have been saying similar things. I think Meuller’s investigation is going to have an impact on what happens with Brexit.
Aleta
Etta James
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJVfGZpqHoU
Tony Jay
@dr. bloor:
Not a problem. Seriously. You want to come get Johnson and Farage you get in that boat right now. You’ll be doing us a major favour.
Haroldo
@Baud: Ditto.
Mary G
Re Wexton/Comstock:
Their lips to Dog’s ears, although I always get a bit irritated when everything is called based on the East Coast while we still have more than 3 hours of voting time left.
rikyrah
@ruemara:
I don’t understand it. People like Lewis got their azzes LITERALLY BEAT in order to get a right for you that you just dismiss?
PHUCK OUTTA HERE.
We aren’t NEARLY that far away from that kind of history.
This didn’t happen to some ancestor GENERATIONS ago..
This is your MOTHER, GRANDMOTHER, AUNTS, UNCLES….
You know someone alive who can tell you the stories.
dm
TPM has a live-view of the election which includes a tab for ballot measures.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/
(on computers, I don’t know what it looks like on mobile devices)
rikyrah
@dm:
yeah, like she’s got some other talent that will get her an $80,000 job in Kentucky with benefits….
SURE…WHATEVER.
Amir Khalid
I’m reposting a question I asked in a now-dead thread:
I have been wondering: if Stacy Adams should win, is it Secretary of State Brian Kemp who has the task of certifying her victory?
divF
@Mary G: That loathsome fraud Barbara Comstock is out. My niece lives in her district – she is going to be so happy.
rikyrah
@dm:
LOVE that ad.
MazeDancer
Great tweet from HuffPo’s Matt Fuller:
Tony Jay
@debbie:
You and Baud are probably right, but the visual really annoys me.
Cheryl Rofer
Here’s the first pickup of the night.
ETA: Late to the game, I see.
dm
@Amir Khalid: Yes, unless the courts intervene (a challenge has been filed to prevent him from doing so)
Kris Kobach must be grateful at the way Kemp has been distracting the country from his own shenanigans.
Mary G
@rikyrah: I smell a disability claim about to happen.
@Tony Jay: She’s been excited all day about Senate Intelligence demanding documents from Banks
Matt McIrvin
So far, the early early House returns look to be running close to the polling, which is probably good for us, if not ecstatic good. Spanberger vs. Brat is a nailbiter.
R-Jud
It’s nearly 1 AM where I am and the Benadryl’s finally kicking in. I hope to wake up tomorrow to see that all the work everyone’s put in has paid off. Thank you so much to everyone who’s knocked on doors, written postcards, and more to GOTV this year. As an expat, it’s been difficult to do much more than try to mobilize absentee voters and give money to candidates.
I wrote a thing, though: “Forget about voting for a better tomorrow. Vote because your blood’s been battery acid since 2016, and it’s time to burn somebody.”
Go blue. Go America!
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah:
The extent to which people can lack any awareness of other people’s struggle constantly amazes me.
rikyrah
@Amir Khalid:
thanks for the positive thoughts.
Lapassionara
@MazeDancer: Yes! Bravo! Or brava!
rikyrah
@Amir Khalid:
yes…
uh huh
uh huh
imonlylurking
I’m watching a twitter thread about KY06. It’s looking really good.
dmsilev
The NYT Needle rises from the dead. Not enough data yet, but they say it should start twitching soon.
rikyrah
We are down to 22
22 is the now the magic number
zhena gogolia
Oh, hell, I thought I was going to stay away all evening and just come back at 10 and see what heppened. But that’s what I did with the Trump election, and that was a horrible, horrible shock. Maybe it’s better to see it all happen bit by bit.
I wish I had a crossword puzzle book to keep me calm. I can’t even drink — work tomorrow.
Tony Jay
@Yarrow:
That would make me very, very happy.
Tick Tock Mummyfriggers.
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia:
I mean happened
JPL
@imonlylurking: That would be awesome.
MazeDancer
Whoa – Reid J. Epstein of WSJ answers how much Comstock’s loss cost:
PsiFighter37
@zhena gogolia: I have work tomorrow and am on my 2nd double IPA. You can do it! :D
Yarrow
@Tony Jay: Farage is in deep with Russia. He’s going to be taken down by Mueller’s investigation. His relationship with Dana Rohrabacher is just one example. His connection with Assange is another big problem for him. He’s toast.
Dave L
@imonlylurking: I hope so… It’s really tightened up in the past few minutes.
rikyrah
Sherrod Brown wins.
ruemara
@Amir Khalid: I’m truly excited. Even giddy. I felt the same certainty when BHO was the nominee. Bone deep that if he wanted to win, he would. I didn’t get that feeling with HRC, I was just being hopeful that human decency would prevail. I won’t say more, but I am hopeful.
Dave L
@zhena gogolia: We can drink for you. Community!
rikyrah
@MazeDancer:
that’s money they didn’t spend elsewhere :)
Mary G
Cole’s Kendra is up 800 votes, but less than 1% reported so far.
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: I’ve been comforting myself with Bree Newsome trying to talk a bunch them down on Twitter.
Aleta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pIdI4jqafw
Bottom To The Top, Joan Armatrading
bluehill
@MazeDancer: Great! Less money elsewhere so hoping there are some knock-on effects.
MazeDancer
Donna Shalala wins!
Yay, Florida Flip!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Cheryl Rofer
Rickrah got there first.
PsiFighter37
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Whew…was worried she was going to blow it. 21 to go…
Fair Economist
@Mary G:
Wait, really? That one was considered to lean heavily towards us this election. The Republicans had basically given up.
The current tie in KY-06 is I think a better sign of a good, but not great night. That one was supposed to be a “reach” district for us, although not a far reach. So if we are tied there it’s likely we’ll take the House, but not with a massive blowout.
rikyrah
Down to 21
danielx
@ruemara:
There is no style that would flatter her.
FelonyGovt
It’s too early here to start getting really drunk. I wish it were tomorrow already (although I understand we may not know everything even by tomorrow).
Tony Jay
@Mary G:
Makes me wonder what else Banks had been up to? I am so jealous that you actually have a serious investigation running under Mueller. Over here there are a lot of questions but the Tories have zero to minus infinity interest in digging into it.
ruemara
@danielx: Wimple?
The Moar You Know
@Tony Jay: I’m a pretty dedicated listener of the BBC World Service, and then a few weeks back they started US Election coverage AND IT WAS UTTER SHIT. Can you explain? I was seriously floored. There’s a bunch of shit that they obviously didn’t understand, and didn’t want to understand, and their unswerving commitment to bothsiderism would not pass muster with even the most servile of US media outlets. They frankly seem to like the GOP quite a bit. You could run most of their political coverage on Fox and I don’t think their viewers would notice, save for the accents.
It was appalling. The BBC seems to, in general, give you folks good bang for the buck in a lot of areas, but Christ, they fail so hard at politics it’s not even funny. So, my question to you: are they as bad at UK politics as they are at ours?
piratedan
looks like 538 just crashed
Alain the site fixer
So glad my new congresswoman will be Jenifer Wexton! Now we’ve started, let’s get that Dem pickup number into the 40’s!
Let’s hope we make inroads in the Senate. Yes We Can!
Cheryl Rofer
CaseyL
“As Guam goes, so goes the nation” – at least, I hope so!
Cheryl Rofer
PsiFighter37
Florida is really tight – now within 1% with 5/6 of the vote counted. Any experts willing to tell me if there’s enough city votes left to offset the boonies in that godforsaken state?
WaterGirl
@dmsilev: Just reading “NYT needed” sent a wave of anxiety through me. Not sure I will ever fully recover from election night in 2016.
MomSense
Aaarrrggghh I hate this anxiety. I don’t know whether to binge double stuff Oreos or lift weights.
Yarrow
Beto ahead with a small percentage in.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: Tim Kaine and Sherrod Brown. Two really excellent senators. Heaving a sigh of relief, even though it was predicted that they will win. I am just not trusting polls at all this time.
Paul W.
Love you all, and even though I lived on the blog all the time I will be doing my election watching at a bar and in dialykos! Look forward to celebrating here tomorrow though!
ruemara
@MomSense: Weights. With oreos as a chaser.
PST
@WaterGirl: I think a strong win by Brown in a state like Ohio puts him in play for a spot on the national ticket. Wish he had more flair.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I am currently making myself crazy watching GA gubernatorial returns. 3% in, Stacey Abrams behind, was around 26%, but steadily rising and now at 37%.
Which is all nonsense of course. We know the games Brian Kemp was playing with Democratic-majority precincts, so we know damned well that the first reports are going to be from the precincts that had enough functioning voting machines and poll workers, and we know which precincts those are going to be.
Hence, making myself crazy, for no good reason (refresh, refresh).
debbie
@rikyrah:
Just saw it as 59 to 41. Blows that 9-point prediction out of the fucking water!
PsiFighter37
Beto is only running 5% ahead of Lupe Valdez so far in the early count. Worried that this means Beto is going to lose by a wider-than-expected margin.
Tony Jay
@Yarrow:
If that slimy frogfaced turd Farage gets nailed and in doing so rips down the curtains on trans-Atlantic collusion with Russia… Yeah, I’ll be drinking to that.
And if it becomes conventional wisdom that Farage is a treasonous scumbag and Aaron Banks acted as a money-funnel for Russia, Brexit simply can’t happen, it just can’t. The denouement to Mueller’s investigation would just destroy any Government that pushed it through.
But that’s for the future. Tonight is all about making that possible.
Juju
@ruemara: keep being you. I love it. In the meantime, I don’t want to check my heart rate any time soon.
mali muso
Yay, Comstock is out! Been living in VA-10 for some 10+ years and have never been represented by team D. So happy!!!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@debbie: I hope that’s good news for Cordray
Mike J
@PsiFighter37: look to me like the panhandle is still out (just closed 15 min ago) and it is traditionally Republican.
Haroldo
What is going on with the 538 House probability? It has taken very much a turn for the worse.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
dm
If you liked the NYT needle in 2016, you’ll love the little graphs to the side of 538’s liveblog.
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: Scott out performing Trump in those Trump loving counties. Worrisome. Midwest retiree types.
bluehill
So far 538 showing both parties holding serve in terms of wins in the solid and likely classifications. Probably still too early to make calls on the lean and toss up classifications.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’s up 51 to 46.
Mike J
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@WaterGirl:
Hey, I wanted to apologize for Saturday night. I’m making personal changes so that stuff doesn’t happen anymore.
And I wanted to say I did appreciate your advice and I have had trouble translating it into practice sometimes.
PsiFighter37
@Quinerly: Florida is about to fuck us over again. Jesus fucking Christ, I hate that state.
guachi
Ouch. Early returns do not indicate the Democrats will outperform.
Early sad face.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I’m sure you all have turnout stories. Here’s mine. I just ran into our mayor while walking the dog. For some reason our tiny borough has one. He said the turnout was about 475 out of 600 registered voters. We’ve got 500 in the last two presidential elections. I was number 118 at 8:30 this morning.
pk
I met a girl in 2016 who told me she didn’t plan on voting as it didn’t matter and she didn’t like anyone. She was a very sweet young girl. My only response to her was that I vote because I don’t want other people to make choices for me. When I don’t vote I feel I’m saying that I’m fine with whatever other people decide. Many times my say has no meaning (Trump), other times I hit the jackpot (Obama). I’ve instilled that in my kids.
guachi
Gillum even behind in Florida with 90% reporting.
Juju
@MomSense: both?
scottinnj
@guachi:
Nate Silver’s life model now calls the house 50/50…was like 85% at beginning of the night…uh oh
Cheryl Rofer
WaterGirl
@PST: I would love to see Sherrod Brown on the ticket in 2020. He’s authentic and that never gets old.
Platonailedit
Fucking Indiana.
guachi
I’m getting 2016 flashbacks now and it’s not even 830 pm.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@scottinnj: now the Republican are wining the House, intresitng.
Baud
@guachi: Yep. Not looking good.
MobiusKlein
I’m feeling proud: got to see my son working the polling station today, getting a bit of civic pay check. Gets to vote next year too.
dm
@scottinnj: It’s worse, now.
Probably because the Rs have picked up a couple of lean-R and likely-R, while the Democrat victories are all in fairly safe territory. The model takes those lean-Rs and assumes other lean-Rs will be similar.
WaterGirl
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Apology accepted. You gotta keep trying. The important stuff is seldom easy.
Mary G
Awful.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@dm: I think they are switching from polling to actual results.
Yarrow
What’s going on in Indiana? Donnelly is way behind.
MomSense
@Mary G:
It’s up to 57.2 now. I think it adjusts as results come kn
Raven
@Mary G:
5 in 9
Chance Democrats win control (54.5%)
4 in 9
Chance Republicans win control (45.5%)
The Dangerman
@Baud:
I’m on Beer 1. It may be the first of many for the night.
What the fuck? OK, Trump so far hasn’t started WWIII and he hasn’t tanked Obama’s economy.
Shit, I need another beer.
Raven
@Mary G:
NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
Belafon
@scottinnj: His real-time meter will fluctuate a lot tonight. I wouldn’t pay attention to it unless you’re looking to have a heart attack.
Cheryl Rofer
scottinnj
@dm:
The South played the long game and will win the civil war.
dm
@dm: And someone in a position to know agrees: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3495
Quinerly
James Carville is a downer tonight.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Nice.
dagaetch
@Belafon: too late, already had one. first of many I’m sure.
Schlemazel
@rikyrah:
The minister that confirmed me marches with Dr. King in Selma & was arrested. The story he told of the arrest & booking were harrowing. It is not that long ago and people who do not vote should be ashamed
Emma
@scottinnj: Oh for fuck’s sake!
PsiFighter37
Unless there’s a major surprise in Broward County, I think we’ve lost Florida.
dm
Does anyone know what percentage Prop. 4 (Former Felon voting rights) needs in order to pass? I think it’s a constitutional amendment, so needs a supermajority, but I don’t know if it’s 66% or what. Right now it’s at 64% with 66% of precincts reporting.
Baud
@PsiFighter37: Nelson is doing better than Gillum, slightly.
scottinnj
@dm:
Thanks…I’ve been able to take a few breaths now
John S.
I hate Florida. No way DeSantis and Scott should be leading here. People in South Florida just aren’t voting.
Baud
Menendez wins.
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: I have a sinking feeling. Nelson is going to lose. Gillum too. Opening bottle of cheap Spanish Red. Long night ahead.
Cheryl Rofer
BlueDWarrior
538s real-time comp is floating around a 60% chance for Dems to win the House. It seems like the strong showing for Republicans east of the Mississippi is keeping their hopes up.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dm: 60%
guachi
So far I have the Dems down about 0.45 expected seats, mostly from massive underperformance in Florida.
WaterGirl
@Baud: That’s a relief. Was the a lean R or lean D?
Central Planning
Don’t forget California has 53 total house seats. The night is still young!
Baud
@WaterGirl: Lean D, but people were worried.
schrodingers_cat
Polls are still open in how many states?
Raven
zhena gogolia
@PsiFighter37:
You’re a lot younger than I am . . . at your age I could have done it.
Tony Jay
@The Moar You Know:
That’s two questions. As to the first I think you hit the nail.on the head with your description of the problems. BBC coverage of US politics is basically the most mainstream, NPR, Republican-friendly bilge you can imagine, and I think it’s because BBC journalists are, a) In awe of US Media and really don’t want to show them up by actually out-investigating them, and, b) Britain is a subservient ally of the US and the BBC is funded by the British Government, politics comes into it. Rock not the boat.
And yes, BBC coverage of British politics is bad, but in different ways. They understand it a lot better, but the ideological bent at the top of the BBC is very Conservative. Natural party of Government, etc etc. The stunned silence echoing across BBC coverage of the 2017 Election when the Tories lost their majority rather than shellacking Labour was instructive. They really, really didn’t think it was possible and couldn’t get their heads around the public’s failure to understand what they’d been telling them about Corbyn’s ‘unpopularity and unelectability’. There was a brief moment of reflection, then they went back to Labour bashing and promoting unrepresentative centre-right Labour MPs as the only viable representatives of the party. It is what it is, but it’s not good.
dm
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Fingers crossed, then.
Don’t despair at Florida yet: the early returns are usually pretty red. It takes a while for the blue votes to get counted. Of 7 million votes cast, the two gubernatorial candidates are only 50,000 votes apart.
PaulWartenberg
@John S.:
Part of me is wondering if the South Florida machines – I think they use touch-screen, and those are vulnerable to cheats – are rigged. >:-(
There is NO GODDAMN WAY the polling was THAT FAR OFF on Gillum or Nelson. NO GODDAMN WAY.
Jerzy Russian
@schrodingers_cat:
Probably a lot of them. It is only 5:40 here in California.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Quinerly: @guachi:
The Stoneman-Douglas students must be crushed.
Quinerly
Claire on MSNBC. I feel like she knows she will lose.
PsiFighter37
@Quinerly: This is exactly when 2016 went wrong…when the good-looking early vote numbers in FL turned viciously at the end.
Racism and getting your huge tax cut uber alles, apparently. Fuck Florida…I hope the rest of the country can start pulling its weight, but I get the sense that it’s going to be another long, and extremely disappointing, night for us. If people don’t care to fix shit when it’s this broken, I have to question if it will ever be fixed.
JMG
It’s over and we lose. You can never beat white racism in this country. Never.
PaulWartenberg
@dm:
It need 60 percent.
Catfish N. Cod
Nate said on Twitter that he’s furiously recoding the model in real time because it’s inferring too much from early returns.
Remember, small rural districts tend to report first.
BlueDWarrior
Models are starting to float back up to over 60%. Still too close, need it over 70%.
It’ looks like we won’t know anything definitive about the House until we get to the Pacific Coast, and they count slow. So if you have anything for anxiety, I’d start taking it.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@WaterGirl:
Definitely.
PaulWartenberg
How is Georgia faring? Have they arrested Kemp yet for sabotaging the election?
PsiFighter37
Jesus, Donnelly is looking in really bad shape – and somehow it seems like they counted all the votes around Gary already tonight.
Patricia Kayden
@Cheryl Rofer: Nice!! Now she can concentrate on her fourth marriage while same sex couples in her county can marry without being harassed by her.
Baud
@PsiFighter37: They haven’t called it yet for some reason.
cain
I’m worried about the Senate. Because we shouldn’t lose seats, we should hold status quo because otherwise shit is going down. Also fuck you Florida. I can’t believe we are underperforming in Florida.
@dm:
ugh, it’s still driving me crazy.
LuciaMia
Well, there is that bottle of applejack…
Patricia Kayden
@PaulWartenberg: Kemp is way up with 25% of votes counted.
PsiFighter37
@Baud: They probably will, soon. Given the amount of venality it appears way too many Americans have, I think it’ll be a minor miracle if we take the House at this point.
Going to crack open one last beer and start reading up on how to move somewhere else in the world.
Quinerly
@guachi: It’s a mess. I’m trying to be optimistic but listening to Claire talking right now and mentioning Nelson gives me a sinking feeling. She knows something from her internals. Perhaps knows something from his internals….. Hope I’m wrong.
Matt McIrvin
What numbers are people looking at for Florida? On CNN, it looks like enough of Broward and Miami-Dade are still out that if votes break the way they have so far, they could still put Gillum over the top.
AliceBlue
According to Daily Kos, Illinois governor has flipped–it’s been called for Pritzker.
schrodingers_cat
I will wait until the polls close because unlike 538 and NYT, this is not a betting game for me.
guachi
So far, Democrats have not won any seats where their chance to win was less than 50%. None.
These results so far are really bad.
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: can’t face it.
Mary G
Ray of light in Georgia, still voting in places:
lgerard
Spangberger tales the lead!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quinerly
@guachi: yep. I’m sick to my stomach.
PaulWartenberg
OH HELL NO.
Here in Florida, the voters have Amendment 5 – which requires a Supermajority vote to raise taxes – a 66 percent count right now. It needs 60 percent to pass.
Say goodbye to any balanced budget, ever. Say goodbye to social services across the board when spending gets slashed.
I hate this state. I swear to God Florida has got to be the most evil state in the nation.
Barbara
Spanberger and Luria are both ahead as of right now.
PsiFighter37
IN-Sen called for Braun. So…we’re definitely not taking back the Senate.
lgerard
@lgerard:
Can’t spell
PaulWartenberg
@guachi:
What the hell is happening?
Are the machines f-cking rigged again?!
MJS
@PsiFighter37: We never were. Had to play too much defense.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@PsiFighter37:
It was always a long shot, anyway.
cain
@PsiFighter37:
It’s Indiana, it was a long shot at best. Indiana is a scourge state..
guachi
McGrath lost.
gene108
I tried watching results on MSNBC. I can’t deal with this shit.
Too nervous
Especially Florida and some of the Red State Dem Senate races.
I hope our voters realize this isn’t a sprint and it is not going to be over for many more elections to come.
PsiFighter37
@MJS: True, but I think it’s highly likely that McCaskill and Heitkamp are going to lose. Manchin barely hangs on. I don’t think either Beto or Bredesen win, and I could see us losing AZ and NV as well.
Just terrible.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@PsiFighter37:
Just remember. The R’s have a really terrible Senate map next go around.
PsiFighter37
Looking like Brat is going to hold on as well. JFC.
Omnes Omnibus
@PsiFighter37: Are you going to be panicking all night? We aren’t going to win everything. The plan going in was getting the house and bunch of governorships.