I tend to think that Democrats have a pretty good chance to take back the Senate. If Biden wins and they don’t, there will be a lot of insanity…think seven person Supreme Court.
So let’s raise some more money for the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up in 2020 — Doug Jones.
A Ghost to Most
Belives?
CCL
Donated last week to DJ– have adopted two states – Arizona and Alabama.
Count me as one who believes in Be Lives.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@A Ghost to Most: As a kid I could never spell the word. It never made sense that “believe” had the word “lie” in it. As I got older, I understood the world is a strange place, and the truth shows up in odd places.
Cameron
@A Ghost to Most: It’s a James Bond movie, IIRC, “Belive and Let Bedie.”
BruceFromOhio
I’ll belive it when i si it. Going to shake out the couch cushions for some scratch for Arkon DougJ.
WaterGirl
Okay, I fixed the typo. That ought to be worth a donation of some kind to Doug Jones, right? :-)
piratedan
with Ducey “in charge” in Arizona, we may see a tidal wave here as far as elections are concerned. The Pandemic response and the fact that its all tied back to his timeline of “opening” the state up that has all of the metro ICU’s filled is going to bite the GOP in the ass.
Amir Khalid
@Cameron:
Not my favourite Bond bemovie.
Kropacetic
Roger Moore should know something about that.
cain
@piratedan:
His base pretty much drove him in that direction. Which is too bad, he should be putting safety over party loyalty or personal ambition – but I guess that’s too much to ask.
Amir Khalid
@WaterGirl:
Alas, the typo lives on in the post URL.
Marcopolo
Both of the folks in my household have given to Jones. We’ve also both given to Jaime Harrison in SC. And since I am approaching this election as the most consequential (existential) in my lifetime, I’ve also given a little to six of the other candidates trying to flip the Senate blue including this guy:
The year’s first-ever poll of Alaska shows GOP with yet another Senate race too close for comfort
In the race for the AK-AL US House seat
I just received a thank you postcard in the mail yesterday from Alyse Galvin for my end of Q contribution to her campaign. I lived in AK for a decade (and have lots of friends there) so have a soft spot in my heart for the state. Accurate political polling is incredibly difficult to do there so take this one with a large grain of salt. Last but not least:
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: No it doesn’t. :-)
Of course, now anyone who refreshes will probably get a 404 error and will have to go back to the previous post in order to get here again.
Betty Cracker
Was conversing with an Alabama Dem on Twitter today who feels like Jones might have a better chance against Tuberville than Sessions because Tuberville used to coach Auburn, and Alabama football fans hate anything associated with Auburn.
I’d wondered about that. Anyway, there’s that wrinkle, so go Tuberville, I guess? He was ahead in the polls last time I looked, probably because Trump keeps crapping all over Sessions out of spite. Ha! It’s definitely a “root for injuries” situation.
I’m still deciding on which senate race to adopt since neither of my horrible senators are up for reelection this year. Strongly considering Jones.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo:
To which I say, “whose comfort?”
cain
@CCL: I believe in Burl Ives too.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Doug Jones is the living embodiment of “statesman”. He takes a principled stand for what is right, even if it’s not popular.
cain
@Betty Cracker:
Sessions must be really frustrated with being shit on by Trump. I’m sure he feels very entitled to that seat but Trump is definitely not going to allow him to have it.
Steeplejack
@WaterGirl:
Typos in URLs don’t matter. People aren’t reading them; they just click on them.
kindness
Thank you Doug. Glad this didn’t get buried.
cain
@Marcopolo:
Looked up Alyse’s positions and despite being independent they seem pretty Democratic to me.
JPL
OT.. trump is scared
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: Agreed! I’ll be really surprised if he can beat a non-pedophile Republican because Ala-goddamn-bama, but it would be terrific if he did win. Jones seems like a good and courageous man.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: Tuberville? I thought that was The Villages for retired spuds.
Martin
Polling is pretty good. We’re up in NC, AZ, ME, IA, CO, MI, MT down in AK, TX, AL.
Would be a shame to lose AL, but man, that was always wishing upon a star.
Anyway, most races are tight, including the ones we’re behind in. In election years like this, undecideds should break for the Democrats because of the top of the ticket race. Dem turnout seems to be off the charts, so polling models maybe systemically off.
JPL
@JPL: More info on Cohen trump is vindictive https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand
JPL
@Betty Cracker: He is and somehow I do hope he pulls off a miracle.
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: Of course they don’t “matter” – they could be gobbledygook and it wouldn’t matter – but I do try to correct them when I correct an error in a post title.
cain
We have a long way to go and it is a pandemic season.. I expect some serious shit to rain down – we can always depend on Trump to keep building more scandals and more things to talk about – and you know he’s going to keep insisting that we NOT do the right thing for covid-19. His people will be stuck in a rock and a hard place.
PsiFighter37
@Martin: I would still take it. Makes it a 53-47 D Senate. I would hope the first conversation Biden has with the likes of Sinema, Manchin, and Bullock (if he makes it) is that everyone needs to play on the same team and get our priorities pushed through, because this country seems to love handing the GOP the keys back 2 years after they wreck everything, for whatever reason.
WaterGirl
@JPL:
Link for that quote.
mrmoshpotato
@JPL: Ahhhh Paulie Walnuts is back to being in-prison Walnuts?
Roger Moore
@WaterGirl:
And I think this is actually better practical politics for someone in his position than trying to placate the Republicans. A lot of people have said that it’s better to have an proud liberal than a Republican-lite; Doug Jones will be an interesting test of that claim.
PsiFighter37
@Roger Moore: I think it’s better because trying to out-GOP the GOP never works. People may not like Jones’ politics, but they will appreciate someone who is more authentic. He has a better chance of winning votes that way from people who don’t agree with his politics than trying to Trumpify himself.
James E Powell
@PsiFighter37:
As Senator Durbin once remarked, “[The banks] frankly own the place.”
Marcopolo
@cain: So AK is a kinda screwy place when it comes to politics. You have regular D types (labor was huge in AK for decades after the pipeline, not quite so much now); you have (or had–they are all Trumpers now) regular R types; you’ve got a lot of kinda libertarian small gov folks; you have Native Alaskans (much more diverse politically than most Native Americans). What the D party folks have figured out over the last decade or so was that running candidates who are just great, accomplished, community-respected people who generally embrace mainstream D governing principles as “independents” is a way to pull the libertarian/Native Alaskan folks in as voters. This has actually been successful enough that currently instead of Rs controlling both the House & Senate, the House has a bi-partisan governing coalition w/ a R minority.
There are a lot of state specific issues like an enormous budget shortfall (due to declining oil revenue), very expensive state gov’t, no state income tax, and whether/how to use the AK Permanent Fund (~$60B) to fund it. Understanding AK politics isn’t something for the faint of heart. All of this is one reason why polling races there is so hard.
Martin
@PsiFighter37: I would too. But it was quite a victory to win that seat to begin with, and I like Doug Jones.
Plus the larger the Senate margin the better. We’d have lost the ACA if not for McCain, so give the GOP one more seat, and it’d be gone.
Marcopolo
@Martin: You’ve left SC, KS, & KY off your list. I think both SC & KS are stretch possibilities (both races are currently in tossup land) and KY would be like an elastic man stretch possibility. Whatever happens, (and do any of us think the political climate will improve for R candidates?), all of our nominees should have plenty of money to make their cases.
Martin
I wonder how much negotiating happened on the NYC city council to get the ‘Black Lives Matter’ outside Trump Tower instead of what I assume was their initial idea of ‘FOAD’.
Roger Moore
@PsiFighter37:
I think there’s also an issue of keeping the base energized. Standing firm on principles is a way of proving to your base that you have their backs and aren’t going to sell them out. That gets them excited to vote for you rather than seeing you as the lesser of two evils. In an environment where convincing swing voters is less important than getting out the vote, that may be a smart strategy.
Don K
In the last few days I’ve tossed a few bucks towards both Jones and Bullock. Will also consider Harrison and the Dem in Iowa (I forget her name offhand, and am too lazy to research it), as well as Gideon in Maine. I want to run up the score to make the median vote in the Senate as progressive as possible.
In the meantime, my senator Peters seems to have a good lead over James. He has the knack for getting out in front and defining his opponents, in this case by going after James for wanting to repeal the ACA. He’s also run a few ads around bringing production of PPE and respirators back to the U.S. I don’t foresee James running as close to Peters as he did to Stabenow (6.5 point spread).
WaterGirl
@Don K: I’m afraid I can’t keep every senate candidate in every state in my head. Who is Peters and who is James, which state are you in, and which one is the R and which is the D?
Steeplejack
@WaterGirl:
There’s no point in correcting the URL. All you did was screw everyone who used the previous “wrong” one. Talk about sawing sawdust.
Geminid
@Marcopolo: Lisa Murkowski successfully defended her Alaska senate seat in 2012 as an Independent, after being knocked off in the Republican primary by a tea party type challenger. My understanding is that Alaskans first and foremost want their reps to bring home the bacon, and ensure that management of the vast federal lands in the state is beneficial to Alaskans. Murkowski won as a Republican in 2018, after using her leverage in the last Congress to get every benefit she could for her state. There’s no telling what she, an Independent/Democratic Senator, and a Democratic Representative could do for for Alaskans. I expect Democratic Congressional leadership will go along. A few hundred million dollars goes a long way up there. Most people won’t mind as long as Alaskans stop shooting wolves from helicopters and attacking bear cubs in their dens.
Scamp Dog
Is the title a Counting Crows reference to the lyrics for Mr. Jones? If so, nicely done!
Marcopolo
@WaterGirl: This would be Michigan. Peters is the rather non-descript charisma challenged D incumbent. James is the AA R challenger who did just have a pretty good fundraising quarter.
I’ve seen folks talk about this race as a kinda reverse McGrath/McConnell election. As it is one of only two pick up opportunities, Rs will give & James will spend a lot of money to eventually lose to Peters. This sounds about right.
Marcopolo
@Geminid: The 2012 race featured this really well-done Murkowski ad. It didn’t hurt that Joe Miller, the nutbag R primary winner, was pretty much a major league @sshole & came across as such.
Gretchen
Bollier is polling even with the top 3 R Senate candidates in Kansas. They have dropped in polls against her while all 6 or 7 candidates air attack ads against each other until their August primary.
Mai naem mobile
@PsiFighter37: Manchin was pro police reform and Sinema has been banging the drum on Ducey opening too early. I don’t know if Rand Paul not disclosing that he was testing and not quaranting himself but that got her all wound up but she is just very shrill about COVID 19. It’s possible that she’s thinking of running for AZ governor(there was talk of it) but I doubt it. She’s just pissed off.