A friend of mine who lives out in a small town out in the red, red West told me that he considers masks a “friend filter”. Anyone he meets who won’t wear a mask is someone not worth being a friend.
Similarly, over the weekend, I discovered another COVID-related filter when I attended a vaccinated-only gig at a local bar. This bar was the subject of a story in the local alt-weekly and the owner noted that he was taking some flack on social media about his policy of requiring either the New York State Excelsior Pass or a CDC card as proof of vaccination. Someone on Facebook posted that they’d never buy wings there again — small detail, the bar doesn’t serve food.
Anyway, when my wife and I proactively showed our Excelsior Passes to the woman watching the door, she was grateful and relieved, because I’m sure some assholes had hassled her about the requirement. Inside, however, it was a remarkable feeling to be someplace where we knew everyone was vaccinated. That was the first time I’ve been anywhere since March, 2020, where I felt like things were really back to normal. It’s a great feeling, I hope that other small venues will do the same thing in the coming months.
jeffreyw
I reduce the number of assholes out and about by staying home. You’re welcome!
Patricia Kayden
germy
@Patricia Kayden:
The whole four years was a Nightmare Scenario.
germy
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
Someone on Facebook posted that they’d never buy wings there again — small detail, the bar doesn’t serve food.
Does that mean they won’t use the salad bar at Applebee’s? If they don’t know there’s no food service, they aren’t customer, just trolls.
cope
I had that experience when the group if us retired teachers who used to meet monthly gathered for the first in fifteen months. The thirty or so of us are all vaccinated and we mingled and dined on the restaurant’s outdoor patio. Dirty secret: there were hugs.
Jerzy Russian
I have not been out much, but I have noticed a gradient in mask usage as one goes east from downtown San Diego out to the sticks/. Nearly everyone has masks near the coast (based on the few places I have been), whereas practically no one has them in the East County (based on the one place I went).
To give a data point, the Congress critters out East have been Duncan Fucking Hunter, Sr., Duncan Fucking Hunter, Jr., among others. I am pretty sure their legal middle names are in fact “Fucking”, if not in English, then in some European language.
Odie Hugh Manatee
I used to grab my pony tail and shake it while explaining to someone that it’s my asshole detector, and now the mask has joined my pony tail in setting off assholes.
Interesting that both my pony tail and the mask set off conservatives.. they must be the Original Assholes.
germy
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@germy:
Shrinkage!!!!!
bbleh
I am definitely tired of adults behaving like children. About the only upside is that I think, like bad children, it seems like there are far more of them than there actually are.
It really is no wonder Trump was/is their avatar. Talk about someone who never grew up …
Wyatt Salamanca
@Patricia Kayden:
It’s impossible to have a post which includes the word asshole in the title and not see a reference to Trump somewhere in the thread. With each passing week, we’re learning that he was an ever bigger asshole than previously imagined.
Betty Cracker
Our idiot governor here in FL made it illegal for businesses to require proof of vaccination, and every single business I’m aware of has dropped mask requirements. But now that the mister and I are vaxxed as are all our elder friends and relatives we were worried about, everything is back to normal as far as we’re concerned. As I understand it, the risk of infection to ourselves and anyone we’re likely to visit (all fully vaxxed) is so low as to be not worth worrying about, so we don’t.
Soprano2
You could try that here, but since our percentage of vaccinated people is under 40%, it might not draw many customers. It’s so, so sad what the MAGA’s are doing to themselves and others.
Erin
@Betty Cracker: Same here. If a business requires it, of course we wear a mask. But the caseloads where we are (DC Metro) are so low, and we’re fully vaxxed, so there doesn’t seem much point in wearing a mask anymore.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@germy: Hangin’ with Mr. Spencer: coming soon to AtlanticTV, streaming service of the Atlantic Media Group.
germy
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Patricia Kayden: sounds like quite a book
Erin
@germy: And if it does, we’ll have to change behaviors, of course. But the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both offer excellent protection against the Delta variant as it currently stands, and we’ll adjust as new information comes to light.
germy
@Erin:
Having a competent administration helps.
bbleh
@germy: @Erin: It’s looking more likely that we’ll need one or more “boosters,” at least until the pandemic is brought more under control worldwide and there are fewer serious variants. But … eh. We get flu shots every year, and that’s pretty routine, and it seems unlikely that a COVID shot will become an annual thing.
Personally, I’d like to see mask-wearing during cold and flu season become more institutionalized, as it is in some Asian countries. But I suppose the Stupids will make that impossible too. File under Why We Can’t Have Nice Things …
dmsilev
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
More complete.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Erin: @bbleh: I just heard on NPR that they’re already talking about starting boosters in Britain in September. They didn’t mention the Delta variant specifically.
As for masks, I have no plans to fly this summer (fingers crossed) but I expect that mask wearing will become fairly common on planes
Erin
@bbleh: yeah, if we need boosters with our flu shots that’s fine. Happy to do it. And at the very least I hope that mask wearing is normalized when people are feeling under the weather. If you have a cold and you absolutely must leave the house, wear a mask.
dmsilev
@Erin: As I understand it (and this is second or third hand; I’m not a virologist), vaccines like the Pfizer and Moderna which create antibodies that explicitly target the spike protein are expected to be relatively robust against a wide range of variants, because there is only a limited range of mutations that that protein can undergo while still being able to bind to the cell (the shape of the protein is critical for that binding to occur). On the other hand, vaccines that produce antibodies aimed at the virus as a whole (for instance, the inactivated-virus technique used by the Sinovac vaccine) tend to be more specific to individual strains and hence are more susceptible to being outflanked by variant strains.
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I saw an article somewhere recently (Politico or some trash gossip rag like that) about Trump raging about Jared because Jared talked Trump into signing the criminal justice reform bill and “the blacks” were insufficiently grateful to Trump. TFG didn’t blow up at Kushner directly because he’s a chickenshit, but according to this article, Trump started freezing Kushner out after that. Sounds plausible enough. I hope it causes a lifelong familial rift. Stuff like that is likely to be the only negative consequences that pack of revolting grifters ever suffer.
raven
Having not seen one incident over masks this whole time I just stopped giving a fuck. If I go somewhere and other people are wearing masks, fine. If not, fine. Ran out of fucks
Xavier
As a vaccinated person I don’t worry so much about being infected, but wish to avoid anti-maskers because of the asshole factor.
germy
I wish masks hadn’t been politicized.
mrmoshpotato
@bbleh:
Totally with you on that!
“BUT MAH FREEDUMB!” “IT’S A PIECE OF CLOTH COVERING HALF OF YOUR FACE, IDIOT!”
mrmoshpotato
@germy: Not having a Soviet shitpile mobster crime family and a destructive cabinet in the White House also helps.
yellowdog
@Betty Cracker: Depending on the shot you got, you are moderately to not-very-well protected against the Delta variant, which will be dominant among new cases in the US by the end of July. Delta is already rampant in FL. You may want to recalibrate your exposure. I’m in a ‘good’ state with high levels of vaccination and fair to good mask observance and I wear my mask everywhere outside the house. It is not over.
HeartlandLiberal
First Wednesday in July, wife and I will resume directing informal duplicate bridge game at retirement home. The home is allowing no more than 20 people, five tables. All playing must present proof of vaccination at front desk to enter the facility. We will also check, and keep track of those vaccinated, so they don’t have to show us every time.
I cannot tell you how happy our fellow geezer duplicate bridge players are to be able to get together again after a year and half.
This means I have to buckle down and brush up on my ACBL director knowledge, because there have been many critical changes in the Laws of Bridge. I attended a four hour Zoom covering most of them last weekend with 500 other directors nationwide, but I have printed out the new edition of Bridge Directors handbook from ACBL site, and need to plow through it before Wed first week of July.
We were on verge of making life master January 2020, at our last tournament we fell a couple Gold Points short, because wife was coming down with bronchitis and we blew the final Swiss Team. So looking forward to hopeful resumption of tournaments this fall.
germy
@yellowdog:
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines only offer moderate protection against the Delta variant?
Erin
@dmsilev:
That’s how I understand it as well. Sinovac, the Chinese vaccine, is doing extremely poorly against the Delta variant for exactly that reason, whereas the mRNA vaccines are holding up great against all of the variants. AZ seems to be somewhat less effective, especially with only one shot. While the UK seemed like they made the right move at first, delaying second shot to 12 weeks, it seems like the wrong decision now because of Delta’s effectiveness against people who got only one shot of AZ. But Israel, which used almost exclusively Pfizer, is doing fantastic. And in retrospect, it might turn out to be a good thing that J&J didn’t catch on in this country.
Ksmiami
@yellowdog: my defense is just not going to places or hanging with anti mask/ anti vax idjits… And We’ve permanently shunned Republicans from our lives so …
Erin
@germy:
Pfizer is only slightly less effective against the Delta variant it seems, in real-world studies. https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/pfizerbiontech,_az_vaccines_effective_against_delta_covid-19_variant_after_two_doses_1371713
Ken
Also review and practice your meditation and calming exercises, for the sixth time the asshole at table 3 calls out “Tournament director!”
Capri
First time in a movie theater in over a year this weekend. I wanted to see In The Heights on a full-sized screen with Dolby sound. It was worth it.
UncleEbeneezer
@germy: Norco, ugh. I played a Country gig out there. Total rich, redneck town, only an hour or so from downtown LA. The gig itself was fun, but I couldn’t wait to get home to civilization.
Betty Cracker
@yellowdog: Here’s what Dr. Fauci said last week regarding the risk for fully vaccinated people: [NPR]
So, it seems like the risk is still pretty negligible. If new facts come to light and/or new guidance is issued, we’ll reconsider.
geg6
@Soprano2:
Same here. Only 39% in my county. I still wear a mask most of the time as, although they have been vaccinated, I don’t want my sister with Crohn’s or BIL with MS to catch anything at all as their immunity may not be as robust as a result of vaccination as the rest of us. I can’t imagine eating inside a local restaurant at this point and even some with outside seating are much too crowded for my sense of safety. Perhaps I’m just overly cautious but I know too well the nature of the assholes around here. I will save any eating at any restaurants, inside or outside (but probably only outside), to when I’m in Allegheny County as they seem to be doing quite well with a majority of residents with at least one shot. I don’t trust this Delta variant, so sue me.
germy
And now cases of black fungus are on the rise in India
geg6
@germy:
I saw that on CBS News last evening. Awful.
New Deal democrat
Well, here is my personal contribution to the data on the kind of total nuttery that is still out there.
Some of you know that I write on other sites w/r/t economic issues. In particular, the investing site Seeking Alpha has taken to cross-posting a lot of what I write.
On Thursday I wrote up what I thought was a pretty antiseptic take on the week’s new jobless claims report, pointing out that the spread of the “delta” variant was likely to have an impact, and probably create a new upturn in layoffs in those areas that will be hardest hit, i.e., where there have been the fewest vaccinations. (BTW, I’m far from the only observer saying this).
SA on their own crossposted it on Saturday. If you want to see what is out there among supposedly “savvy” individual responses, get a load of the responses!
Here’s the link:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435668-the-decline-in-new-jobless-claims-stalls-as-the-delta-variant-is-ready-to-strike-the-unvaccinated-states?v=1624201183#comment-89274106
Scout211
Interesting regional differences: We are visiting family in Western Washington right now, where some restrictions still apply for the state but businesses generally post “recommended” or “optional” mask policies. Customers are about 85% masked, similar to when we left California (before June 15th).
The vast majority of mask wearers here in Washington wear cloth masks. Where we live in California, the vast majority wear disposables. It’s kind of a useless observation, but still.
We fly back to California tomorrow, after the June 15th rollback of all restrictions. It will be interesting to see how that affects mask wearing in our part of the state.
NotMax
Better than even chance that someone doesn’t live anywhere which could remotely be considered in the vicinity – and quite possibly does live in the state of Florida.
Trivia: Not only are there two Floridas in New York (#1 – #2), there’s a New York in Florida.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I’m not sure how I feel about going unmasked inside. One of the considerations is not only the delta variant, but that mask-holes almost certainly will start trading in counterfeit vaccine certification credentials where those are required.
So I’ve got to assume permanently that in any crowd there will be mask-holes present, who are not only unvaccinated but likely mingle for fun at superspreader events in Red state Covid breeding colonies.
So for now I mostly default to wearing the mask, and fortunately I live in an area where lots of other people do as well and nobody gives you grief about it whichever way you go.
My wife keeps mentioning the (nonexistant) cold and flu season as well. Isolating and masking kept us largely healthy last winter, and that was pretty nice.
Soprano2
That is not going to happen in the U.S., and it’s not just because of “the Stupids”. I’m not one of “the Stupids”, but I don’t want to wear a face mask everywhere I go in public for over half the year. So sue me. I don’t care whether other people do it or not, but I don’t appreciate being lumped in with “the Stupids” just because I don’t want to do that.
yellowdog
@Erin: Pfixer is 88% protection against Delta..Good but not excellent. There is NO evidence for the efficacy of the Moderna vaccine against Delta. The prevalence of Delta is doubling every 2 weeks or so. Please continue to wear a mask!!!
Soprano2
Where are you getting this? Everything I can find says that we are well-protected against Delta here in the U.S. because of the vaccines we have.
Feathers
@Soprano2: The Stupids aren’t the non mask wearers, the problem is the folks harassing mask wearers.
NotMax
@germy
Brought this up in a COVID thread last month when alarming early reports began trickling out.
Kelly
House Pfizer here. Oregon businesses are still required to require masks so we wear our masks. Why stress the staff? Enforcement of the mask rule is lax but masking is still around 90%. Vaccinations in Oregon have stalled just short of the 70% of eligible people goal for dropping the mask rule, need another 50k to get their shots. If we had continued at the spring trajectory we’d be there already.
I will remember who the covid assholes were. The owner of our best local hardware store was the very vocal ringleader of the local anti-mask assholes. I may never shop there again.
geg6
@Soprano2:
I understand the annoyance of the masks, but I am pretty stoked by not getting a cold for over a year. I haven’t even had a single sinus infection, which I commonly have due to allergies, for over a year. If I have to wear a mask when in a crowd or during high allergy seasons for the rest of my life because it keeps cold viruses and pollen out of my airways, I’m all for it. I do plan to keep masking when it makes sense to me.
germy
I thought it was closer to 100% when it came to preventing serious illness requiring hospitalization.
Jay
@Betty Cracker:
which is the Delta variant, that the efficacy or the effectiveness is somewhere close to 90% — 88, 89, 90%. Importantly, the protection against severe disease resulting in hospitalization and death is over 90%, 93, 94%. So if you are vaccinated, you’re going to be protected…
WhatsMyNym
@Soprano2: Seriously? The person who has the cough, sniffles, wears the mask.
Soprano2
So, are you in the “I never want to get Covid no matter what” camp? If you are, you’d better get used to mostly staying home forever, because Covid is with us to stay. I’ll settle for being protected from serious illness and death, and the ability to live a mostly normal life. I trust what Dr. Fauci says, and according to him Delta isn’t a concern for people who are fully vaccinated, no matter how many people around them aren’t.
Soprano2
Hey, you be you. I would never hassle anyone over their decision to wear a mask for this reason. I’m only annoyed to be lumped in with “the Stupids” because I don’t want to do this!
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I keep hearing 100% or “near 100%”. I’m extremely distrustful of a 100% number, that just doesn’t seem possible. Yet when I heard a number quoted on prevention of hospitalization or death, that’s the number I kept hearing.
I admit I’m not up to date. There’s so much clinical data still being collected, which means numbers like these (and other questions like “will I need a booster? when?”) are evolving. Where do jackals go to find the latest research, tentative or not? CDC? JHU?
Grelican
I rely on my underwear and pants as an asshole filter. I guess I’ve been using masks all wrong.
Searcher
In the Hudson Valley, a lot of places have stopped having a mask mandate. Mask wearing looks to be about 50% give or take depending on the town.
My current heuristic as a fully vaccinated individual is that if the employees are wearing masks, I wear a mask.
Jay
@germy:
studies vary, and Delta is new, ( but not the newest, there is a new strain of Delta, and one out of Moscow),
So far studies show MRNA Vaccines are up to 90% effective against getting Covid. Still, 10% chance that wrong place, wrong time, you will get covid,
if you get covid, there is only a 6% to 7% chance you will require hospitalization and/or die.
the numbers are on top of numbers, so, 100,000 vaccinated,
10,000 may get infected, mostly mild cases that don’t spread,
of those, 600 to 700 will have severe covid.
WaterGirl
@Jay: Do you have a link for that? I would like to be able to share the source.
Searcher
@geg6: I’ve noticed over the last year of WFH and having an extremely … flexible … schedule how much I feel like crap if I get a poor night’s sleep, now that I don’t need an alarm clock to get me out of bed in time for the train.
I kind of wonder what fraction of my colds previously were “exposed to germs on the train” vs “only slept 6 hours several nights in a row”.
rikyrah
@Patricia Kayden:
Another reminder that this muthaphucka held this to put it in a phucking book.
Where’s KAY…she has the right blistering reaction to it.
Them holding back shyt in order to SELL HIS DAMN BOOKS.
Soprano2
@WhatsMyNym: Maybe that’s what the poster meant, but I took it to mean that everyone should wear a mask in public during cold and flu season, which is half the year. I might do it if I have a cold for a few days, but I’m not going to wear one all the time.
polyorchnid octopunch
@New Deal democrat: Lotta butthurt Calvinists in that community, it seems.
Sure Lurkalot
Once Colorado moved to “no mask required if vaccinated”, I see fewer and fewer people wearing masks on my fairly short indoor procuring excursions and longer, like dentist visits. Yesterday at hippie Whole Foods (yeah, right) pretty much no one was wearing a mask.
I still wear a mask indoors because for me it’s not a hard thing to do and the unvaccinated include children and those who can’t be. I have ditched the mask outdoors which I admit is a relief, especially in hot weather. I didn’t mind as much on cold morning walks.
I do think there should be a cautious attitude about the delta variant, especially considering the real world example in Great Britain. Despite the one-dose protocol that appears to have been short-sighted and AZ vs MRNA vaccines, we have vulnerabilities too, mostly political but nonetheless….
Mary G
If I go out, I wear a mask as there is actual scientific evidence that the vaccine doesn’t work as well on me. I have a tile guy in the house right now who is unmasked, but it doesn’t bother me because there are multiple fans on and all the windows open. He had one on Friday and would probably put it on if I asked, but I’m OK as he is vaccinated.
Kent
I am in the middle of planning a family reunion in two weeks for my very large and diverse extended family. There were 14 children in my dad’s family growing up on a farm in Oregon and the extended family runs the gamut from extreme lefties, alternative hippy types, and mainstream liberal professionals (doctors, teachers, school administrators, etc.) on one side and some absolutely dumbfuck MAGA types who are a motley assortment of right wing evangelicals, Scott Adams right wing middle management types, overseas missionary types, and ordinary rural MAGAts.
The facility we are using in Oregon requires Covid screening and Covid waivers so the two of us who are organizing decided we were going to require all attendees to either (1) be vaccinated, or (2) prove the are covid free by taking a negative Covid test within 72 hours of the reunion date. I found a nearby pharmacy that does drive-through instant testing and will send any MAGAts there who show up without either.
In the online google form I created for reunion registration, I made 3 options under Covid screening: (1) I am vaccinated and will provide documentation, (2) I am covid-free and will provide documentation in the form of a negative covid test taken within 72 hours of the reunion start date, (3) I am under the age of 12.
Out of the 60+ family members who have registered so far, we are running 71% vaccinated and 29% MAGAt. I’ve gotten some pushback from the right wingers but actually more support from the other side saying “please stick to your guns”
Honest to God at this point I half hope some of them catch Covid so I can cue up my pre-prepared response on the family group page on Facebook when someone dies or is hospitalized on a ventilator due to the Delta variant: “Well, look on the bright side. At least he/she didn’t have to suffer from any vaccine side-effects
The mask mandates are largely going away in Oregon by July so at least I don’t have to be the mask police too. But I have told everyone that since we are renting a public event venue, they are expected to be adults and follow whatever requirements are posited by the facility itself. Why I even have to tell people this is just beyond me. I was going buy some squirt guns and give them to some of the kids and send them around to hunt down old folks with their masks off and let them amuse themselves being the mask patrol.
JMG
I keep my mask in my pocket when I go out, as there are still some stores that ask you to wear one even if vaccinated, but on the Cape, the vaccination rate is so high (like 80 percent of eligibles totally vaccinated, and it’s almost 90 in my town), those are the only occasions I wear it. PS: It is my understanding masks are still required on planes and Amtrak. They are on Massachusetts public transit.
Baud
The time for understanding is slowly transitioning to the time for shaming and ostracizing.
Kent
@Baud: What about ridicule. Can we do ridicule too?
Fair Economist
@germy: This is kind of alarmist. Oversimplifying, there are two kinds of antiviral immunity – antibodies and killer T cells. As the coronavirus mutates, antibody protection, which requires an exact fit to the shape of the viral protein, weakens fairly quickly. But it’s not normally a single-step process – immunity degrades gradually as the virus picks up mutations. In a few years, you’d expect this to decay to lowish levels, but not in one step tomorrow.
Killer T cells react not to the overall shape of entire proteins but to small digested pieces presented by infected cells, and kill the infected cells. It takes an enormous accumulation of mutations before there are no fragments in common, so the killer T immunity decays *very* slowly – to the point that there’s still a little crossreaction between SARS2 and existing human coronaviruses, which are thousands of years out at least. Since it doesn’t act until cells get infected, killer Ts won’t completely block infection, but they limit its severity, often to the point that you don’t even notice you’re sick. That’s going to hang with us indefinitely.
So mutation will fairly soon produce a SARS2 that can infect current vaccinees, but it will still be very limited in its ability to kill them *if* they got a vaccine that produces T cell immunity, which would be the mRNA vaccines, or ones like Sputnik (assuming you get a good batch of Sputnik, because they’ve had serious production problems).
I’d like to point out that the Delta deaths being reported in England and probably Seychelles and Bahrain are in countries that used traditional vaccines, which do *not* produce much T-cell immunity. They’re just injecting killed virus or bare protein, so no cells are ever infected, so there’s no training of T cells.
Ken
As long as you don’t fill the squirt guns with COVID solution. That would be Wrong, or so I am told by persons with a moral compass. Besides, the kids can’t be vaccinated yet so might catch it.
debbie
I’m listening to an hourlong program on NPR about Merrick Garland. Listening to him, I am saddened at the lost opportunity to add some real wisdom to the Supreme Court.
jnfr
Here in Colorado it really varies by community. My own county, Jefferson, is over 75% with at least one shot, as are nearby counties like Broomfield and Boulder. Denver is over 70% and a few of the mountain counties are over 80%.
Other rural counties range from 20-40% with stagnant vaxx numbers, so I assume the Delta variant will still hit the state hard, at least in some locations.
But here around our usual haunts, things are in good shape and are returning to mostly normal – lots of masks indoors still, but slowly declining, and mostly maskless outdoors.
Baud
@Ken:
Fill them with bleach. Or Lysol.
scav
@Ken: Bleach in the squirt guns? MAGAts couldn’t argue with the holy bleach, could they?
Matt McIrvin
I’m currently taking a very short-range vacation in Newburyport, MA, and COVID infection rates are so low here that along with being fully vaccinated, I figure there’s little risk in basically acting like it’s over. If I were to waltz into a major outbreak, of course, I’d reassess.
Baud
@debbie:
Don’t ever listen to an interview with Hillary Clinton.
trollhattan
California folks, the state rolled this out on Friday.
https://myvaccinerecord.cdph.ca.gov/
Not a “passport” per se but for venues smart enough to require vaccinations for entry (thank you, Dave Grohl) it should do the trick.
Be forewarned, the QC code only generates gibberish and I can only conclude it’s intended for medical or some other official uses. I’m keeping a screen cap of the thing.
Ruckus
@raven:
That’s my experience as well. I’ll keep wearing a mask in stores, my age and my health issues give me more than valid reasoning.
In the LA area 3 very large drive thru vaccination locations have closed and it’s mainly because so many have been vaccinated. Of course there are idiots everywhere so there are unvaccinated here. But the numbers are relatively low, in my city 59.2% have been fully vaccinated and 68.2% have one shot. There are cities in socal that well over 80% have been vaccinated and vaccination is ongoing. That’s why the restrictions have been lowered.
Fair Economist
I have decided to continue requiring vaccination to come to my house, indefinitely. I’m not all that worried about myself catching COVID, but I view it as a bozo filter – somebody foolish enough to not get vaccinated is somebody I don’t want in my house.
I’d make an exception to somebody who genuinely couldn’t get vaccinated, of course. But that’s rare and hasn’t come up yet.
Omnes Omnibus
@Searcher: In Madison, I am still seeing pretty high mask use in business. Like you, I cue off of the store employees – or the signs on the business door. I will make sure I have a mask with me for the foreseeable future, but I am moving toward not using it anywhere near as much as I did. At the same time, I am not in anyone else’s shoes, so I will not say boo about anyone who chooses to wear one more often.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Dr Ashish Jah, Dean of the School of Public Health at Brown (pace Lisa Simpson)
Baud
Masks are like condoms, you should always have one with you just in case you need it.
Ninedragonspot
@Jay: This is not my field, but I don’t think that’s how the numbers work.
If you vaccinate 100K people, only a certain portion of them will be exposed to a sufficient dose of COVID to transmit the bug. Of that number, 90 percent of mRNA-vaxxed will not get COVID.
James E Powell
@Baud:
I’ve read and I think I understand the explanations for the widespread hatred of Hillary Clinton, but I still think it’s bizarre. Everybody from the elites of the press/media to the women whose lives she would have worked to make better, decided they would never give her a fair shake.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Ruckus: We’re at 56% here in Glendale for the first shot.
BruceFromOhio
@New Deal democrat:
The week-to-week claims and employment data gets a little noisy, have to watch the revisions. I thought your analysis and conclusions were sound, and like any other forecasting, only time will tell if you are directionally correct, and how accurate in that direction. I expect you’ve crossed paths with Martin in this forum? (S)He has a pretty savvy take on investing.
Thought experiment, how would your post be received if your handle was AMERICA! FIRST! ALWAYS! and you claimed only one year of experience? Or if you were Jane O’Connor with 5 years experience?
The responses remind me of Yahoo comments, and why comments sections are like septic tanks – it gives the crap a safe place to process, and keeps the crap from infecting everything else.
Thank you for sharing! I look forward to your future writings.
geg6
@Baud:
That’s going to be my new motto. I have a pack of disposables in my office and one in my car. I keep one of them in my purse at all times. I can foresee doing this forever at this point.
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Sac county is 44% fully vaccinated.
Not good enough, not even close.
It isn’t availability, anybody who wants to can get a vaccination within the hour.
Baud
@geg6:
They make non-disposable condoms?
geg6
@Baud:
I knew as soon as I posted that you would say that. ;-) I should have specified masks.
laura
Spouse’s youngest sister was just diagnosed with Alpha 1 Anti Trypsin after a collapsed lung sent her to the ER. The condition caused holes in her lungs that leaked air into her chest cavity. She’s all vaxed up but will still be required to wear an N95 at all times outdoors, no open windows and no whole house fan use. Having antimask assholes is just the cherry on top of her new not normal.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Sure, just turn them inside out.
BruceFromOhio
@Searcher:
Combine them for a special viral surprise! Same trip here, getting plenty of sleep along with no-exposure WFH, and it’s been over a year without colds or URI’s.
Nora Lenderbee
We wear masks outside the house (except in the backyard). Yesterday we did our first bike ride without wearing neck gaiters. We carried masks but didn’t wear them. We didn’t encounter many people, but half or more seemed to be wearing masks.
artem1s
@yellowdog:
And every state with college students from FL will be rampant by Thanksgiving. And then again next April/May after spring break.
I’m not going to feel comfortable about going back to work on campus until someone steps up and starts mandating proof of vaccinations for students returning to classes in the fall. And that goes double for the NCAA mandating proof in order to participate in college sports and travel with the team.
I think it’s 50/50 we’ll all be back in lockdown by Halloween. All so DeSantis can snuggle up to TFG.
Kent
@BruceFromOhio: One thing for sure, it has nothing to do with getting cold.
I used to work winters on the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. I never caught a cold working in frigid wet icy conditions at sea. But I would sometimes catch a cold on the flight home.
jnfr
@laura:
That sounds very scary. I’m really sorry and wish her all the best.
VeniceRiley
Hereabouts on the OC, I still see people in masks at the drug store and the grocery store. I’ve been sticking to patio dining for the most part, unless there is a sportsball match I want to watch at lunchtime.
Kent
@artem1s: Here in the Pacific Northwest, all the colleges and universities have already announced mandatory vaccinations for in-person students. You can only be unvaccinated if you are an online student only. They have too many loopholes for religious and personal exemptions. But at least there are hoops they make the MAGAts jump through. And I think for the dorms and in-person school at UW where my daughter will be a freshman they are going to require something like weekly covid screening for the unvaccinated. When they get tired of having a q-tip jammed up their nose they will be directed to the free vaccine clinic on campus. Personally I expect a LOT of unvaccinated students will go ahead and get the shot on campus once they are out of the sphere of influence of their MAGAt parents.
trollhattan
@Searcher:
Will attest to having my # of colds/year drop noticeably after I switched from the light rail to cycling to the office.
#BugsInABox
BruceFromOhio
@Kent: That’s sounds like an interesting post for On The Road! I hope the work paid well.
germy
@Baud:
StringOnAStick
@James E Powell: I will admit that it was reading here that took me from “I will vote for whichever person wins the D primary” to a full blown Hillary supporter, and I consider myself politically well read. My D former boss had read some stuff about her being too cozy with high finance and was deeply concerned but he voted for her. The LDH (Latter Day Hippie) refused to vote for her until I told her that her VT God had said to, and then she screwed up her mail-in ballot because in her 42 years she hadn’t voted more than a few times; she of course was the most passionate about her choice and also the most willing to swallow all the disinformation that was flooding social media.
My point is that where and how people get their news and information is a huge determinate of how, and if, they vote. Our side needs to do more with this, especially since social media is such a big factor with the zeitgeist.
SFBayAreaGal
@germy: Amazing. Looked at some other links also. I can easily spend hours looking at links that provide history and archeology. Thank you for sharing this.
New Deal democrat
@BruceFromOhio: Thanks. Of course you are correct re noisiness, etc. On the other hand, both Dr. Scott Gottlieb and Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser made similar points about the “delta” variant’s likely effect on the economy over the weekend.
The “funny” thing is, even if you were a MAGAt investor, you should be wary of the delta variant just because of the behavioral effect it may have on a lot of people – I.e., re-cocooning.
I’ve written to a couple editors at SA saying that I would be willing to do an in-depth piece about “Why investors should care about the delta variant” if they would post it. Since I get paid by pageviews for exclusive content, it would be like drawing moths to a flame!
laura
@jnfr: Thank you. It’s genetic and all four sisters have been tested. One has the disease, one doesn’t but still has unusually low blood count and one is awaiting test results. Spouse is holding off in testing on the assumption that his ability to average 500 bike miles per month and low heart rate, no breathing issues (and prior running miles when he still had knees) is evidence that he is not affected.
germy
@SFBayAreaGal:
You’re welcome.
I really enjoy history twitter.
debbie
@Baud:
That Howard Stern five-parter was really very good.
Benw
My daughter is too young to get the shot, yet. So I mask up indoors and when I can’t distance outdoors even though I know it’s a very, very low chance that my fully-vaxxed self will catch and transmit it to her.
Cameron
Am I missing something? ’cause I’m not nearly as freaked out as this guy is about a few hires. Yes, probably a bit dodgy on the ethics side, but I think we’ve got a whole lot more important things to worry about.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/f-ing-failure-obama-ethics-chief-slams-biden-for-illegally-hiring-kids-of-top-aides/ar-AALdXyV?li=BBorjTa
catclub
where do I get that Excelsior card?
Kent
@BruceFromOhio: I was a fisheries observer in Alaska for three years between Peace Corps and grad school: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/fisheries-observers/north-pacific-observer-program
Pay was decent but also all expenses were paid so you didn’t have to touch your paycheck until you returned to Seattle. I paid off all my student loans with one 3-month observer contract in Alaska in 1989 when I got out of the Peace Corps.
Kent
@Cameron: It is all 100% disingenuous bullshit. There are no ethical rules that says you can’t seek Federal employment if you happen to have a relative who is also working in the Federal government.
It is the same exact mendacious bullshit they used when they talked about how the Clinton Foundation had the “appearance” of possible conflicts while the Trump Foundation was an outright fraudulent scheme to steal money. So “both sides….”
Benw
Interesting, the Supreme Court ruled that the NCAA can’t withhold education-related payments to athletes:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/21/politics/ncaa-supreme-court/index.html
The students can’t get PAID, but it’s a step in the right direction!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cameron: I think Walter needs a hobby and maybe a prescription
Betty Cracker
@Cameron: Was considering doing a post about that but I gather it blew up in comments over the weekend, and I don’t really have time, so…
Short version: I think Shaub is WAY overreacting, but some of his detractors are underreacting and/or viewing the issue through a fandom lens, and that’s not helpful either. Biden admin executive branch family hires aren’t in the same universe as the Trump nepotism debacle. But IMO, a situation where three of a top aide’s children work for the admin gives grist to the “both sides” mill and feeds cynicism about government employee self-dealing, so I wish they hadn’t.
Benw
@catclub: it’s a phone app.
bbleh
@Soprano2:
As Hunter Thompson said, res ipsa loquitur.
Shakti
This ad definitely needs to be seen by more people, so that Chris Jones has a chance against Sarah Huckabee:
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
Yeah, it was thoroughly chewed over and spit out earlier.
TerryC
@Searcher: I went to Costco here in Ann Arbor yesterday and masking was about 95%.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: I think there are some legitimate questions about at least one of the Richetti kids getting the kind of job you need connections to get, where you make more connections to get another job and so on up the food chain– another one appears to be a career foreign policy aide with long experience, but I’m sure at some point being Steve Richetti’s son moved him up the line.
But Shaub’s histrionics, and aligning himself with people who went after Ron Klain’s wife– an evironmental lawyer with a long career of her own– and Jen Psaki’s sister– a highly credentialed public health academic– makes him an all but useless voice in the cause he thinks he’s advancing.
James E Powell
@Cameron:
My BOLD [bitter old liberal Democrat] take is that members of the press/media are desperate for a Biden “scandal” that will save them from having to talk about a popular guy with popular policies who is competent at government and putting the Beltway Courtiers to sleep.
They don’t care what it is, but they are going to keep throwing things out there and hoping one of them takes off.
ian
@Benw: My reading (IANAL) was that the majority, lead by Boofer, thought the NCAA was acting like a monopoly. It seems like a gateway decision that could lead to a further decision legalizing/permiting full pay.
joel hanes
@Betty Cracker:
Important to understand what the numbers mean.
95% effective means that, out of 100 situations in which an unvaccinated person would have become infected, a vaccinated person will become infected in 5 of them.
That’s not a get-out-of-jail-free card to go to bars.
But the delta variant is at least two and maybe as much as four times as contagious as the original SARS-COV2.
So the same month of activities that constituted 100 would-have-gotten-infected situations with the original virus now constitutes 200 to 400 such situations with delta.
So if the same vaccinated hundred people go about their business in the same way, instead of 5 cases, we have maybe 10 to 20. This appears to be happening already in Great Britain.
It is my aim to not be one of those 10 to 20 cases.
joel hanes
@geg6:
I do plan to keep masking when it makes sense to me.
I’m with you.
Cameron
@Shakti: Wow. What a great ad.
NotMax
I understood limits on occupancy but could never wrap my mind around curfews on eatery hours. The virus suddenly buffs up when the clock strikes X hour?
Maui just this month has “allowed” places which serve food to stay open as late as midnight. Markets open 24 hours were never so constrained.
Brachiator
@Soprano2:
Personally, I’d like to see mask-wearing during cold and flu season become more institutionalized, as it is in some Asian countries. But I suppose the Stupids will make that impossible too. File under Why We Can’t Have Nice Things …
I’ve become so used to masks that while going without one is okay, wearing one is no big deal. It has become almost as “natural” as wearing shoes or putting on a jacket when it’s a little cool outside.
And yeah, Covid may become a part of everyday life, but it might be possible that there will be new and more deadly variants, or that we will learn more about the precise levels of protection that vaccines provide, and consequently there may be times, or times of year, that mask wearing becomes strongly recommended.
This might be equivalent to the smog alerts we used to have more regularly in Southern California, when people were advised to reduce strenuous outdoor activity, and school kids could not play outside.
Anoniminous
Vaccines are not some super-duper panacea. Getting shot with Moderna or Pfizer hugely greatly reduce the probability of contracting Covid-19. They do not eliminate it.
Even “mild” (sic) cases of Covid can cause long term brain damage and/or dysfunction(s.)
HinTN
@trollhattan:
I still refer to airliners as COVID canisters, even though the airlines really upped their game on cleaning and air filtration.
joel hanes
@joel hanes:
I wrote:
If we now factor in that the vaccine is 90% effective against delta, as opposed to 95% against the original virus, we now have 20 to 40 cases instead of 5.
joel hanes
@HinTN:
I’m going home from Californa to Iowa at the end of June.
I’m driving, because I’m not yet ready to be in a crowded airport, much less four hours in an airplane.
Benw
@ian: that’s how I read it, too. They put the NCAA on notice. When (if?) California’s law that student athletes can get agents and endorsement $$ goes into effect in 2023 will be a total landscape changer, IMO
WaterGirl
@artem1s:
The University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana just sent out email today that every student will be required to be vaccinated to be on campus. *with special exceptions available for students who simply cannot be vaccinated because of a specific medical condition.
I was very happy to see that.
yellowdog
@germy: 88% for the Pfizaer after 2 shots. Moderna has not been evaluated against the Delta variant. AZ is about 33%.
WaterGirl
@Cameron:
There was a thread where that was discussed. Most of the “concerns” don’t really hold water.
NotMax
@joel hanes
Yup. Mom is making noises about me traveling to NY this summer. I’m far from ready to consider spending, in the rare best possible case scenario, 11 hours aboard a plane.
trollhattan
@joel hanes:
I’ve done that drive via I-90 (in the family car) and man is that a long-ass trip.
OTOH western Montana is quite pretty. Past that, not so much.
Betty Cracker
@joel hanes: I think people are generally bad at assessing risk, myself most definitely included. IMO, we should all be a lot more afraid of driving. That said, case loads and hospitalizations in my county have cratered, thank dog, and the risk of my fully vaccinated self contracting the virus and passing it along to another fully vaccinated person are vanishingly small, so I choose not to worry about it. As for unvaxxed people who choose not to get vaccinated and voluntarily go out in public without a mask, that’s their look-out. I’ve done my part.
Another Scott
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: +1
I still wear a mask everywhere, even when out walking the dog. There are lots of (unvaccinated) kids in the area and one never knows when one will come zooming by or want us to stop so they can pet the dog or something.
I understand the desire for people to “get back to normal”, but wearing a mask is really not a big deal to me and there are still people getting infected and dying every day in Virginia. Yes, they’re unvaccinated, but they’re also hosts that help spread the virus and increase the chances of new variants.
The mRNA vaccines are great at preventing serious illness, hospitalization, and death. But one can still get sick, and getting sick isn’t pleasant.
Virginia just flipped over the 70% at-least-one-shot milestone yesterday. Infections are low in NoVA. But I’m not changing yet. I got the flu in Japan in May a couple of years ago and it was a miserable week when I got home… Yes, COVID-19 isn’t the flu, but has similar symptoms in many people.
I’ll reconsider when the DMV area goes a week without new confirmed infections and deaths.
YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
yellowdog
@Soprano2: In the UK last week, among those with the Delta variant 1/3 of hospitalizations and 40% of deaths were among those who had been vaccinated.
Brachiator
@NotMax:
In Southern California, especially, there were always gripes from the food and bar industry that health agency restrictions were not explained or “justified by the science.”
But in the UK, where going to a pub is a holy right guaranteed by both the Deity and the Monarch, you could see places become more crowded as the night wore on, despite rules about maximum occupancy and social distancing. All of this was, of course, pre-lockdown.
But here part of the difference is between a place where you are sitting and potentially stewing in the virus for hours, vs a place you are moving through for a shorter period of time.
joel hanes
@Betty Cracker:
Yer makes yer choices and yer takes yer chances.
I hope yours turn out well.
joel hanes
@Brachiator:
People in bars become less “inhibited” as the evening wears on. It is known.
Omnes Omnibus
@Betty Cracker: My question about this is whether any law was violated? I am a bit tired of Dems needing to be like Caesar’s wife while the GOP does what the fuck ever they want. If the hires were legal, I am fine with them.
joel hanes
@trollhattan:
It’s about 2000 miles by the shortest route, which for me is I-80
I did CA->IA in October in a marathon push, three naps, 36 hours of driving. I came back back around March 1st in a much saner three-day trip with two motel stays.
In normal times, I prefer blue highways, which makes it take over twice as long, not counting detours to see things and hike around.
Roger Moore
@New Deal democrat:
Maybe you’d be worried about it, but your response would be totally different. You’d be doing your very best to tell people how little of a problem it is in order to discourage that cocooning. This has been the core of the MAGA response the whole pandemic: the problem isn’t the danger of the virus, it’s people’s fear of the virus. Instead of trying to reduce the fear by reducing the danger, they’ve focused on reducing the fear by a PR campaign to convince people the virus isn’t a real problem.
Soprano2
Fully vaccinated, or only one shot? I have read that if you’ve had only one shot you’re still pretty vulnerable to the Delta variant, and should take precautions accordingly. For me personally, I’m fully vaccinated with Pfizer, and my mom and husband the same with Moderna. I’m a lot more concerned about the people who won’t get vaccinated at all, and about the ones who can’t yet get vaccinated.
Roger Moore
@NotMax:
I think there are some sensible sounding but not very well thought out ideas behind that. The basic issue is that people associate late night with risky behavior. If you go to a restaurant that also serves alcohol and stay until 2 AM, there’s a good chance you’re getting plastered- and consequently much more likely to engage in risky behavior- by closing time. So they want to limit the hours in an attempt to limit the risky behavior. I don’t think it actually works that way, but I don’t pretend to be an expert.
New Deal democrat
@Roger Moore: Your response as an investor ought to be completely independent of how you think you should react politically, I.e., “what investments will make me the most money?”
That’s what i’m trying to get at.
Omnes Omnibus
@New Deal democrat: Why? What if gun companies, asbsestos manufacturers, and Koch Industries give me the best ROI?
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2: Seconded. When the delta variant started taking off in the UK 4 weeks ago, only 30% of the population was fully vaccinated, while an additional 30% had only one dose.
We know that delta can break through a single dose, but I’ve seen no information suggesting that fully dosed people get seriously ill from it.
Old School
@Soprano2:
From a June 11th Guardian article:
New Deal democrat
@Omnes Omnibus: ok fair enough, I spoke too broadly.
But whether I invest in a company that is morally neutral, e.g., dine-in restaurant chains, ought to be a function of how successful I think my investment will be, not whether I think people “ought” to go to dine-in restaurants in southern Missouri.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: There was an article in WaPo about it, and IIRC, there was no suggestion any of the hires were illegal — it was all about how it looked. I’m also sick of the parties being held to two different standards, but it can be an opportunity in some cases. Biden said repeatedly during the campaign that he wouldn’t hire family members, and he hasn’t, even though it’s not illegal. I don’t know if that promise moved a single vote, but I was glad he took that stand.
Sister Golden Bear
My brother is visiting from RI, where apparently most people stopped wearing masks.
He discovered things are different out here when he went into a store and he was the only one not wearing a mask — even though they weren’t required.
Told him that among other reasons, we don’t want to look like Republicans.
New Deal democrat
@Old School: More than 2 weeks after the 2nd dose? Important to know, and the article doesn’t say.
rikyrah
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Am I like the only one who is impressed with the 88% benchmark?
Old School
@New Deal democrat: There’s a graphic in the article that breaks down the patients.
For cases with an A&E visit: Unvaccinated (825), Within three weeks of first dose (90), More than three weeks after first dose (220), More than two weeks after second dose (83), and Unknown (16).
The death bar chart doesn’t provide numbers, but the darker blue that corresponds with “More than two weeks after second dose” would seem to be around 12.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
It’s weird how during the Trump era, the cynicism, at least among conservatives, had entirely fallen away. To the contrary, right wing stooges and Trump’s fan base were delighted with the cronyism and injection of Ivanka and Young Jared and other favored persons into whatever role the Orange Beast crafted for them. The application of the blunt, direct, sometimes unethical methods of the cut-throat business world were applauded as efficient ways of cutting through red tape and getting things done.
And of course, there was Trump’s naked attempt to politicize the civil service:
Others have noted that the criticisms about the Biden administration were probably overblown and in at least case totally wrong given the qualifications of the person involved.
But the sad truth is also that a lot of folk don’t care about government corruption at all, as long as it’s the GOP and they fee that they are getting whatever they want out of bad practices.
New Deal democrat
@Old School: ok, that’s more info. But what I really want to know is if the *infection* was contracted more than 2 weeks after the 2nd dose, not whether the hospital visit or death was more than 2 weeks after.
Old School
@New Deal democrat:
This appears to be the report the article is based on. I’ll let you peruse it at your leisure to see if your question is addressed.
joel hanes
@rikyrah:
Am I like the only one who is impressed with the 88% benchmark?
No. The mRNA vaccines are among the most amazing feats of medical science and art : astoundingly effective, nearly completely free of side-effects, developed and produced over an incredibly short time.
They are nearly miraculous.
But only nearly.
catclub
@Roger Moore: I am just going to recommend reading Michael Lewis’s
new book The Premonition. It tells a story that is at right angles to everything I thought I knew about the pandemic. fascinating.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: Corruption in business and government is something of a personal hobbyhorse, so it’s entirely possible I overestimate how put off by it people are. (Not the people who cheered on Trump’s depredations; they are irredeemable, or as a wiser woman once put it, deplorable. I mean regular people/voters who aren’t super attached to either party.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: The concern that I have is that using the term corruption in this context validates the both sides view. Absent evidence of actual problems with the Admin’s hiring practices, I am loathe admonish them for not meeting a level of ethical conduct that seems to exist only in Schaub’s mind.
catclub
Scientific American? Socialist Aristocrat? (*)
(*) Band name
Another Scott
@catclub: Here SA = Seeking Alpha
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
This is very interesting, and provocative. I would enjoy learning more about your views here or in another post.
People are really strange about this. Some are only cynical; they expect to be disappointed and take perverse pleasure in confirming revelations of bad behavior. Others are fatalistic. They believe that they can never win against the “big guys,” so why bother.
And there are those who hope for something better and who try to encourage it.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator:
I think that’s exactly right, and they’re not crazy to think that’s just the way things work. I suspect many of us could cite examples of public servant nest-feathering at the local, county and state level.
janesays
Wrong.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/more-contagious-delta-covid-variant-could-become-dominant-in-us.html
The mRNA vaccine protection against the Delta variant isn’t as strong as the protection against the other variants, but it is still highly effective for people who are 2 weeks out from the second dose.
Trust the science.
janesays
@yellowdog: AZ is 33% after only the first dose. Two weeks after the second dose it goes up to 67%. Protection against a case serious enough to require hospitalization after the second AZ dose is 86% (and 95% for Pfizer).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/the-covid-delta-variant-how-effective-are-the-vaccines
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
Some are only cynical; they expect to be disappointed and take perverse pleasure in confirming revelations of bad behavior. Others are fatalistic. They believe that they can never win against the “big guys,” so why bother.
I know someone who was a whistleblower in a local government corruption scandal. The right people ended up going to jail.
Sometimes the good guys win.
Robert Sneddon
Right now in the UK the number of COVID-19 cases has soared to five times what it was a month ago with the more-communicable Delta variant being responsible for 90%+ of new cases nationwide. However hospitalisations and deaths have not followed the new-case trend, remaining low and modest compared to the States and other countries where the Delta variant has still to take hold seriously.
US new cases per million population/last 7 days : 240
UK new cases per million population/last 7 days : 961
US deaths per million population/last 7 days : 6
UK deaths per million population/last 7 days : 1
The UK has delivered a first vaccination to over 80% of its adult population with over 56% now fully vaccinated. This high rate of vaccination seems to be blunting the serious effects of the disease in those infected while not noticeably stopping its spread. Most vaccinations carried out in the UK have been AstraZeneca with the remainder being Pfizer/BionTech.
Matt McIrvin
@joel hanes: Everything depends on the base rate. Right now, in my area, there is less COVID-19 about than there was at any time since March 2020. It’s below half of where it was at the previous low point, which was about one year ago in June–and still dropping–and that’s with the whole area already opened up to a degree that it wasn’t then. So I don’t think the situation at this moment is actually more hazardous than it was; it’s less. That’s all down to the collective effect of the high level of vaccination we have here.
At some point, we’ll probably get enough variant Delta creeping in to overpower that trend. But that is not now. We’re making plans for the fall in the full realization that we may have to go back to lockdown and cancel everything. But what I’m hoping is that we’ll have some kind of plan for booster shots before something whittles away sufficiently at the immunity that it gets as bad as fall 2020.
Matt McIrvin
@Robert Sneddon:
Best guess is this discrepancy is less to do with different vaccines, or with different virus variants, than with big chunks of the United States undertesting and undercounting cases. The mild infections that are being caught in the UK’s testing regime are mostly going completely unnoticed here.
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin: …and I forgot to mention that a year ago, we were also doing about a quarter as much testing as we are now, so a lot of infections were probably being missed then. Test positivity is at about a third of where it was when the testing regime really ramped up in early fall.
So I’ll certainly be watching the numbers, but I regard local low prevalence + vaccination as pretty good protection at the moment. What this isn’t is license to waltz into an outbreak without further precautions.
Another Scott
@Robert Sneddon: You, obviously, know more about the following than I, but I was astounded by how strongly Starmer went after BoJo in the June 16 Prime Minister’s Questions (which I heard rebroadcast on C-Span radio last night).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000x4rk
He was battering BoJo for letting “20,000” people from India enter the country, with the implication that they brought the Delta variant with them. That was just one of many examples he cited of BoJo’s mishandling of the pandemic.
(I’m uncomfortable with the “seal the borders and we’ll be safe” approach, but appropriate checks are obviously needed at the border.)
It seemed out of character for Starmer to actually act as the leader of the opposition and have some fire about him. BoJo’s parries didn’t seem terribly effective to me. But I’m not the audience…
Cheers,
Scott.
Robert Sneddon
@Another Scott:
There wasn’t really a hope to keep the Delta variant out of the UK, any more than any other nation could. Britain has millions of citizens with family connections in India and there’s a lot of air travel between the two countries. When the Delta variant flared up initially in India the thousands of British citizens in-country Starmer was wittering on about couldn’t be kept out of the UK and there wasn’t any sort of quarantine system big enough in place to isolate them long enough to prevent the variant spreading into the UK.
The Press danced around the situation that the first big flare-ups of the Delta variant back in April occurred in areas which had a big population of Indian families, second and third generation citizens, places like Bolton and Bradford (great place for curry, btw) and south-central Glasgow. By this time people were flying out to India to attend family funerals because of COVID-19 and some of them were bringing the Delta variant back with them when they returned.
There’s definitely a question to be asked about why PM Johnson didn’t drop the hammer on flights to and from India earlier than he did. He’s been desperately trying to get a post-Brexit trade deal with the Indian government and indeed he had been in India in early April for direct face-to-face talks with PM Modi. Closing off the air bridge between India and the UK at that point was not going to make his trade discussions easier and it’s possible he took a political decision rather than following the scientific advice. Saying that it took some time for the Delta variant to move from “variant of interest” i.e. we’re monitoring this variant to “variant of concern” i.e. this variant spreads easily and is more virulent than other variants.
Brachiator
@Robert Sneddon:
If only Boris Johnson had a Big Boat that he could use to travel to places where he wanted to get a trade deal, he wouldn’t have to worry about air bridges. And of course, no one on a big boat has ever got sick or anything.
More seriously, Johnson’s trade yacht proposal is one of the dumbest ideas that I have ever heard, and I am surprised that this idiotic idea has not been withdrawn and put some place where it will never be brought up again.