While I have spent the last month and a half in a Steelers stupor, Iraq is still a clusterfuck:
REGARDED as untouchable by the Sunni populace, Sheikh Naser Abdul Karim al-Miklif believed that he had no need for bodyguards.
Leader of the huge al-Bu Fahad tribe in Anbar province, the seat of the Sunni insurgency, he was revered by insurgents and local residents alike as a man faithful to the interests of his people. His position of power was unmatched.Yet three weeks ago, driving alone through the centre of Ramadi in his maroon Mercedes after attending a tribal wake, the sheikh was killed, riddled with bullets by assassins who fired from two passing Opels.
Coming only days after a huge bomb killed more than 80 Sunni police recruits in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, his killing has sparked a tit-for-tat cycle between Iraqi resistance cells and those they see as responsible for the death of the sheikh — al-Qaeda.
“We aren’t talking about scattered incidents,” a Ramadi man, who is connected with the insurgency, said. “We are talking about many operations with the Mujahidin hunting down al-Qaeda, specific patrols tracking them and killing them in and around Ramadi.”
Now I am certainly not going to weep over Al Qaeda agents being murdered by Iraqis, and you can be damned sure this is not going to spill a lot of beer at the VFW, but the general level of instability, going on three years after the end of the invasion, is depressing. One positive note- American casualties dipped slightly the last two months.
*** Update ***
Here is some more positive news.
slickdpdx
Best/funniest first sentence in a post I’ve read in a while. Gota love the non sequitur. Just realized I don’t know how to spell the seq word….did I get it right?
jg
I wish I believed that staying there will make things better. I don’t though. I think it’ll be, at best, the same as if we left.
stickler
American casualties dipped? Must be because the insurgents are all so busy killing each other.
We need to get our people the hell out of there.
Steve
The lesson here is that al-Qaeda is in Iraq, and they are happy to engage in terrorism against Iraqis, but the Iraqis can and will respond. Al-Qaeda is hardly present in sufficient force to overthrow the Iraqi government, no matter how many times the administration claims that withdrawal is tantamount to handing bin Laden the keys.
The only sense in which any of the Iraqi factions are sympathetic to al-Qaeda in any way whatsoever is that some of them have a shared dislike for America. So be it. Let’s get out of there and watch the Iraqis root out al-Qaeda in defense of their own sovereignty.
Clever
Is that promising or ominous?
jg
Al Qaeda isn’t trying to overthrow the government of Iraq. Just trying to ensure the correct government results. Baghdad was once the capitol of the muslim world. In their plan (that never included Saddam) it will be again. We helped Al Qaeda. we did in weks what would take them years. That sux, dude.
The Other Steve
Good. That’s what needs to happen. The Iraqis need to learn how to stand up for themselves.
This was only made possible by the withdrawl of American troops from those regions. Now if we can only pull the Americans completely out of Iraq maybe things will start to stabilize.
The Other Steve
Yeah, but Al Qaeda wants a Sunni religious government in place. They don’t want a Shiite, because they are heretics. So this is quite a bad turn of events for Al Qaeda to have the Sunni coming after them.
jg
In the long run it may not be such a bad thing. Al Qaeda is the means to an end not the end itself. First step was get rid of the secular ruler.
SeesThroughIt
You hit the nail sqaurely on the head, Steve.
Jaybird
“First step was get rid of the secular ruler.”
A heretic for a ruler is 50 times worse than a simple infidel.
Infidels, after all, can’t know any better.
Heretics, on the the other hand…
Pooh
Did anyone else see George Packer on Colbert last night? (He was talking about this a little).
Incidentally, do Colbert’s guests know how full of shit he is pretending to be? Packer looked downright angry at one point.
jg
Saddam wasn’t an infidel.
Al Qaeda would prefer a sunni leader no doubt but they’ll take this. Its still a win. And we did the heavy lifting.
Eural
I can’t understand anyone who goes on the Colbert Report or Daily Show and doesn’t expect it to make them look silly and full of shit. Both shows have enough publicity that if you’re surprised at the result you have only yourself to blame. (Did anyone see the DS with Mark Crispin Miller and Dish, Texas?)
Also – check out this month’s issue of GQ magazine (hunky love cowboy Heath Ledger is on the cover) for a great article about the private security firms in Iraq. Very troubling.
MI
Can someone articulate why lots (most?) of the soldiers on the ground say things are actually going well and the media is just twisting things? The military blogs I now read thanks to being linked from here, don’t seem to think Iraq is a clusterfuck. I’m big on “deferring to the expects”…anyway, I don’t know what to think anymore, I think it’s become almost impossible to find the objective reality of a situation like Iraq in this day and age.
MI
err, *experts
jg
I don’t think its the media twisting things so much as just not reporting on the things that are going well over there. Soldiers see the good everyday but that stuff won’t sell ad space on CNN or FOX or CBS, etc.
Its spun as bias but its simply ecomomics.
The Disenfranchised Voter
Yea well think about it. I really don’t think the soliders fighting in the Sunni Triangle are the ones who are blogging.
They have a little more important things to be doing.
MI
TDV, I know one quote from one guy doesn’t dismiss what you’re saying, but from the LA Times the other day, “Surely we cannot be so stupid as to stop the only person who is reporting that we are making progress and winning in Iraq,” Kurilla, on the mend from his wounds back home, wrote to several other officers in an e-mail. The 24th’s commander added: “Mike Yon is the only one who is helping us win the media war and win over the American public.” That’s from the commander of 24th Infantry Regiment, a guy who IS in the shit. Now, ok, his word isn’t the be all and end all of how we’re doing in Iraq, but if you’re going to take someone’s word for it, seems like he’s a pretty good guy to go with.
Basically my point is this: Everyone and their mother is telling us we’re fucked in Iraq, that it’s a disaster and a clusterfuck, but the people who are actually there, doing the killing, fighting and dying, are saying otherwise, and what I’m asking in this thread is why I should believe you guys instead of these guys? Since I’M just some guy in his cozy home in front of the computer who doesn’t know shit about what’s really happening in Iraq.
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-yon9feb09,0,6823091,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage
The Disenfranchised Voter
MI, Soldiers who are fighting only see what they do. They don’t see the big picture.
Plus their commanders will purposefully decieve them with good intentions. You have to keep troop moral high. If the higher ups were to allow the unvarnished truth to get to the troops that Iraq is going as expected, then the war would be undoubtedly lost.
Even some soldiers who were in Vietnam right before we pulled out said we were winning that war. I’m sorry if I’ll take experienced ex-military commanders and experts words over theirs.
The Disenfranchised Voter
*isn’t going as expect
CaseyL
Well, what do they say is “going well”?
Crime is skyrocketing. Utilities are still way below pre-war levels. There’s still dozens of people being killed everyday in suicide bombings. These aren’t things reporters are making up.
What, exactly, is “going well”?
Perry Como
Are we turning another corner yet? Maybe it’s time for us to raise the color code. Or perhaps the White House should announce that they’ve stopped a terror plot that is more recent than 4 years ago.
Rove, why hast thou forsaken me!?
guyermo
so, which insurgency is in its last throes?
the insurgency against Americans?
the insurgency against Iraqis?
the insurgency against Sunnis?
the insurgency against Shiites?
the insurgency against Al Qaeda?
any insurgencies in Iraq that I missed?
stickler
Then ask yourself this: why don’t we know more? Why aren’t the reporters getting out of the Green Zone to report all the good news about the reconstruction? The light at the end of the tunnel, and all that.
You could ask Bob Woodruff about how things are going. He got out of the Green Zone. But you’ll have to wait: he’s still under sedation and won’t wake up for a couple of days.
Pooh
There might also be a disconnect between the goals as understood by the soldiers and as understood by the public. In terms of their “mission” the soldiers may very well be doing fine, but I think it’s safe to say that the two groups have very different understanding of what the “mission” is, so naturally they are not in agreement as to how close we are to completion of the mission.
srv
milblogs – sodastraw. Still important to consider, but they no as much about the big picture as we do.
srv
*no – know
Pug
The assassinaton of yet another cleric is surely a sign of how well things are going. Political assassinations and suicide bombings that have continued for years are always a good sign, right?
jg
We’re fucked in Iraq because we’re kind of stuck there until the place is fixed since we broke it and its taking quite a long time and not going to result the way we weanted it to. We did it partly to intimidate Iran and they’ve actually benefitted from it.
There is very little good that can come from the new Iraq from a US point of view.
MI
I should probably say that I don’t dispute that things aren’t going well, clearly it’s a mess. I’m just struggling with realizing there are going to be a ton of Kurilla’s who are going to feel like we stabbed them in the back and it’s probably something they’re going to carry with them the rest of their lives, not even to mention how the actual war will weigh on them. I understand now why some nam vets hate guys like Kerry and feel betrayed by him…I don’t agree with them, and I think what guys like Kerry did was the exact opposite of betrayal, ect, but now I understand them, something that wasn’t the case a year or two ago. The whole thing is just fucking heart wrenching.
jg
The only reason any soldier will feel stabbed in teh back is because the republicans are running for office on the platform that dems hate the troops. They even send radio guys over there to tell them that so it sinks in early. They spin every thing the left says about how badly this war has been handled into the left hates the troops, wants to hurt them be siding with the enemy. Its all to disguise their incompetence and drive a wedge between voters. It exploits the troops yet its the left that gets the black eye.
Remfin
It should also be mentioned that at least 5 anti-war soldier blogs (that I know of at least, I’m sure there are some unknown number of others) were shut down, either through official action or intimidation. At least, that was claimed in some final posts and in some media interviews.
Of course some of these websites could be fake. We know a couple of the big-time pro-war ones were in fact fakes from top to bottom, so I’m sure some of the antis are. But that’s your decision, whether you regard them as valid or not. Since you seem to be leaning towards valid I think the fact some were shutdown should be remembered
don surber
Stability=Saddam
No thank you
Once-ler
I’ve seen other reports that the Iraqi insurgents don’t like the foreign fighters. In fact, I’ve long thought this should be our exit strategy: Negotiate an agreement with the Iraqi insurgents that we’ll leave as soon as Al Qaeda is gone from Iraq. Stand back for a while and watch the Iraqis kill all of the Al Qaeda agents. Declare victory and get the hell out.
srv
Instability=Bush
No thank you
Richard Bottoms
Result. One massive goatscrew.
Fuck you George Bush.
don surber
Yes, Bush killed 1 million Iraqis (eyeroll)
Left up to the left, Iraq would remain a Stalinist state, which of course always gets the left’s support
The Triple-A Left: Always Aiding & Abetting
GTinMN
More manure from the quintessential delusional tool.
See also, Bush’s ‘Gettysburg address’.
Pug
Don Surber = Joke
TBone
-also-
Both of the above statements are patently untrue. Troops on the ground today get huge amounts of data, in the form of pre-mission briefings etc. regarding what is happening on the ground. They are not only privvy to mission-specific intelligence, but additionally analysis of the “big picture” scenario on the ground. In addition, they come into contact with the local populace on a daily basis; and the locals love to inundate you with their opinions. Perhaps junior troops don’t know everything, but I submit that is more a result of apathy on the part of the soldier than some purposeful attempt by his commander to keep him in the dark.
Secondly, soldiers are not in the stone ages in Iraq. Everyone has the opportunity to see television (courtesy of the Armed Forces Network – AFN) who broadcasts CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, etc. news programs in their entirety. Soldiers also have unlimited access to the internet, which includes news and blogs like this one. Many guys who go on patrol and are in a combat environment like to blog. Most are sensitive to their responsibility towards Operational Security (OPSEC) so therefore they don’t blog about particulars of an operations, etc.; but many see the “real deal” on the ground and can say that the Iraqi situation is progressing forward in a positive way. Yes, there is still violence and confusion in Iraq; but perfection takes time. Did you realize there was an active resistance in the former Nazi Germany years after WWII ended, resulting in the deaths of US soldiers? This type of chaos is not unprecedented in a post-war environment. Things are getting better however. If you had the opportunity to be there on multiple occasions like I have, you would say the same thing.
GTinMN
Cite? Because whatever may have happened in post-war Germany of course doesn’t compare to the tens of thousands of insurgent attacks happening just in the last year in Iraq.
TBone
“Cite”? Do some research yourself.
And…out of my whole comment that response was the only thing you could come back with? My point was merely that war doesn’t just, poof, come to a tidy close. Still, many facets of life are improving in Iraq.
And “tens of thousands of insurgent attacks”? Where did you get those numbers? If they were accurate (and they aren’t) I guess the attack-to-successful-kill rate proves that the insurgents are totally incompetent, and their “insurgency” is a dismal failure. Thanks for helping me out on this one with your “facts”.
GTinMN
Thousands of attacks? So says the US Military.
Cite
So you claim they’re keeping the troops informed? Maybe, but explain your ignorance for the rest of us, what’s your excuse?
I ignored most of your post, if you think Fox News is really a news source and not the White House proganda organ, then there’s no use arguing with a fool. No, I just wanted to see you come up empty on the widespread and fictitious German insurgency, just to let you prove yourself the lying fool.
Oh, and no one here would ever claim the insurgency needs to win militarily to acheve their goals. It’s all about turning the populace against the occupier, but then, that’s a bit too nuanced for you, huh. If and when things get better in Iraq, it will likely be in large part a result of the US pulling out most if not all of the troops. Until then, it’s like putting out a fire with gasoline.
TBone
What are you talking about? What exactly are you saying I am ignorant of? Or was that just a meaningless snappy retort designed to make you feel like you came back with something?
Stay on point. Are the troops informed or not? I say yes from personal experience. What do you say from personal experience?
The Disenfranchised Voter
I say no, since up until recently the only political commentary from radio they recieved was Rush Limbuagh.
Then again, you probably think Rush tells the truth.
You have zero credibility Tbone. Especially on this issue.
One look at your blog and I can tell you’re one of the morons who compares the Iraq War to WWII.
GTinMN
If you are going to represent yourself as an expert on how informed the troops are, why should I believe you, if you yourself express surprise and skepticism about the level of insurgent attacks? That would seem to me to be one of the most important facts the troops should be aware of. It’s common knowledge here in the states among the people who are paying attention, and this is something we hear from the military, so no use trying to claim it’s BS. You also are seemingly unaware of the true threat the insurgents pose to the occupation. How is that possible, are you truly that uninformed? Explain the contradiction between your assertion of informedness and the ignorance you display about the actual facts.
Also, where is the proof for the supposed WWII insurgency? Come up with it, or else be honest enough to admit you pulled it out of your ass.
TBone
CITE: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N23312603.htm
Okay, using 2005’s numbers for IED “attacks”, you are correct on the “tens of thousands” of “attacks”. I stand corrected. Note, however, that the numbers include bombs that did not go off. But what if the “attacks” weren’t effective. Do we put such stock in the definition of “attack”? Let’s look at the facts.
Then look at the “official” numbers on casualties.
More than half the deaths caused by IEDs. Okay 846 deaths divided by two = 423. Out of 10,593 IED “attacks” the enemy killed approximately 423 of our guys. 10,593 “attacks” divided by 423 KIA = about 25 successful attacks. Twenty five successful attacks. I don’t have the numbers for wounded, but then again you would have to only use the non-return to duty numbers for that…the results are still very low on the insurgents ability to capitalize on their “attacks”.
Additionally,
So attack numbers also include troops in contact with bad guys. When have the initiative, and some gomer pops off a round, it is considered an attack. When some monkey blindly fires a mortar in the vicinity of US Forces, it is considered an attack. Plus thousands of those “attacks” are Iraqi on Iraqi violence. Many of them are reports of small arms fire from vehicles.
So you were correct. I was ignorant on the definition of attack and the “official” numbers you cited, however when you put it all in context, it seems like someone is blowing this a little out of proportion and context. I certainly didn’t know they were calling it an “attack” everytime some Iraqi sneezed.
TBone
CITE: http://www.canadafreepress.com/2005/rubin082005.htm
The article goes on to discuss the Allied approach to counterinsurgency and its comparison to the Iraqi insurgency.
The insurgency after WWII was more effective pyschologically than physically, but it had an effect nonetheless. I suppose the effectiveness of the French Resistance against the Nazis could be downplayed as well, but nonetheless a significant lesson in insurgency/counter-insurgency.
TBone
Hey GTinMN,
I apologize for doubting your numbers. I was truly ignorant of the “big picture” in this case. I didn’t know how the bean-counters in the Pentagon counted “attacks” and probably should have. Note however that combat injuries are down, and the effectiveness of the “attacks” is marginal. Those are salient “facts” that are not represented in the numbers.
We are on the offensive all over Iraq stopping bad guys. The effectiveness of our border operations are making a marked effect on the insurgent’s ability to infiltrate more bad guys across the Syrian border. Construction is continuing. Infrastructure is improving at a steady rate since 2003. Government is forming, morphing, and growing the way a fledgling government should. People are empowered now more than ever before in the last 40 years. Those things are significant. Please don’t downplay them when you mention the negative aspects.
Yes it seems slow. I would like to see it all magically be better tomorrow so I could go home, but this type of thing takes time. I pray the Iraqi people will be capable of self-government sooner than later. I have a yard to mow and a family to love. I will retire soon, so I also wish this for my guys more than for me. I don’t want this war. Fuck this war. Fuck all war, but this is my job. My career. I do what is necessary to make the mission happen because I took an oath to do that. I did it for Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, and for this President. I didn’t care about the politics of the matter when I was given orders to go, because that is not my business. My business is serving the nation we live in.
By the way, my wife is from Minnesota and she voted for Colin Peterson (D-MN) when she claimed MN as her residence. I support Peterson on some of his legislature. We aren’t pure partisans. We just want people to stop blowing this issue completely out of proportion.
Cheers,
T
The Other Steve
Several factors.
– Soldiers with blogs who report things aren’t going well are shut down. Somewhat understandable, really, as negative thinking is like a bacteria, it eats away and just creates more negative thinking. The job of the military leadership is to discourage this, and keep morale high.
– The soldiers saying things are going well are not on the front lines. I recently saw an article about Tammy Duckworth whose running for Congress in Illinois. She lost both legs after the Blackhawk she was piloting was shot down. There was some Illinois Republican who had served in the Iraq theatre quoted saying she was full of shit, everything was going well over there. The difference… This Republican had spent six months working supply lines in Kuwait. Not quite the same experience.
– Soldiers only see what is immediately around them.
Frankly, I don’t think things are going that bad in Iraq. I mean, seriously, this isn’t Vietnam with the Tet offensive. The insurgency, while it’s certainly coordinated and organized, is not a fully Army. So, things could be much worse.
The main problem is simply that things aren’t getting better. There’s something of an illusion of getting better, because US forces have withdrawn into their fortified areas, and we’ve gotten much better at force protection. (not as many mortars coming down into kitchens, etc.)
The Other Steve
One other thing, MI. The Vets who attacked Kerry did so out of resentment. Resentment that their government lied to them and betrayed them. Sent them overseas to fight in a war that was not their own, yet told them how important it was anyway. They resent Kerry, because he told them the truth. They didn’t want the truth, they wanted someone to blow bunnies up their ass.
That’s just the way things are. I don’t fault those vets, I understand why they feel as they do. I fault the politicians who knowingly manipulated and used those vets for their own political gain.
As for TBone…
Tough titties. When the President launches a war, not with the interest of National Defense, but rather his own Partisan Political purposes… you can’t expect the nation as a whole to rally behind him.
Right now, about the only thing that’s going to bring this country back together is for Bush to apologize and resign. I don’t think that’s going to happen any time soon.
You can’t force things to be the way you want them to be after the fact. Yes, we’d all like it if our President would only launch wars in the interest of National Security, rather than partisan politics. That’s a promise that we as a country made to our soldiers. The difference which is supposed to make the American experiment unique.
But then we have reality…
GTinMN
TBone, where is the information on the German insurgency? That’s all I asked for, and you are still unable to deliver.
Your original point, that the situation in Iraq is much like post-WWI Germany, is simply not the case.
I understand that the insurgents are inefficient and utterly ineffective militarily, but the fact that they’re abls to kill an average of two troops a day three years into this mess, along with many more Iraqi troops and police, coupled with the fact that polls show that most Iraqis want us out of there, and a near-majority think it’s acceptable for our troops to be attacked, means it’s a clusterfuck.
GTinMN
TBone,
Oops, I apologize, I got interrupted by some errands and posted something I had teed up without checking for further posts from you first. But the German insurgency was still nothing in comparison to what we are seeing now. Clearly the military planners who anticipated the real possibility of sucn an insurgency were ignored by the administration fuckups who led us into Iraq anyway.
Barry
Don’t apologize to tbone just yet:
http://www.slate.com/id/2087768
Mac Buckets
Do we file this post under the Hubris Of The Intertrons, or the Idiocy Of The Know-nothings? Now some hacks who’ve never been within 3000 miles of Iraq are pretending that they know as much about Iraq as the people who live and breathe the war there everyday…because they read some media reports???
Pull the other one.
Mac Buckets
But Bush mentioned the long upcoming fight against the terrorist “insurgents” in his speech on the USS Lincoln (“We have difficult work to do in Iraq. We’re bringing order to parts of that country that remain dangerous…The transition from dictatorship to democracy will take time, but it is worth every effort. Our coalition will stay until our work is done…”), so how can you claim that they didn’t think it was coming? They underestimated the size of it, maybe (although maybe not), but not that it would occur.
Mac Buckets
Steve…you can’t honestly believe that tripe, can you?
GTinMN
I’ll believe Tommy Franks over Mac:
Link