War

War for Ukraine Day 956: Glide Bombs Over Kharkiv, Again

by Adam L Silverman| October 6, 202410:15 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, all things considered, Rosie is doing well. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second is the all things considered. The house is prepped for Milton. I have it down to a science. Today it took 46 minutes, which is a new record time! Right now it is forecast, based on the 1900 CDT advisory, to make landfall in Siesta Key, Florida. If this forecast holds up, or it tracks even further south because the cold front moving into Florida pushes it farther south, then that is good for the Tampa Bay area. As long as Milton makes landfall south of Sarasota, the storm surge, or the really hard core storm surge, will all be south of the point of landfall. That means we’ll only be dealing with wind and rain. Regardless, I’ve got an evac plan in place and I’ll make the decision to stay or go tomorrow morning based on the overnight and tomorrow morning advisories.

As a result, and since I’m pooped from the day’s excitement, I’m going to just run through the basics tonight so I can rack out. Also, if I do have to evac, depending on how long it takes to get to the Balloon Juice Continuity of Operations (COOP) site based on traffic, tomorrow night’s update might be a bit late.

And yes, I am moving out of Florida before next hurricane season. I was supposed to move out of Florida last October, but got pulled off that assignment while I was actually relocating to do a favor for someone down here. One way or another, I’m out of here by next May.

The Russians opened up on Kharkiv again this evening with more glide bombs.

Three people were injured in russian aerial bombs attack on Kharkiv tonight, said the regional military administration head. The first attack struck the forest, but the second damaged a house and injured civilians.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 6, 2024

Air defense work in Kharkiv ‼️ must be russian drones in the area

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 6, 2024

And here’s the Ukrainian air defense tally from last night:

Guess how many media outlets have put Russia’s latest massive attack on Ukraine in their headlines? Zero. With all eyes on the Middle East, Putin is enjoying the impunity. Russia now feels free to commit any kind of barbarous attack while the world looks away pic.twitter.com/7OVETaIQXl

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 6, 2024

Last night, Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed more than 50 “Shaheds” in the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv regions.

Over the course of this week, the enemy… pic.twitter.com/Tr1HwUtF0q

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 6, 2024

Last night, Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed more than 50 “Shaheds” in the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv regions.

Over the course of this week, the enemy has used about 20 missiles of various types, more than 800 guided aerial bombs, and nearly 400 strike UAVs of various types.

This daily aerial terror can be stopped. This requires unity among our partners and long-range capabilities, which will help save Ukrainian lives every day. At next week’s Ramstein meeting, we will continue working on this with our partners.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Will Apply Even Greater Pressure on Russia, Because Only Through Strength Can We Bring Peace Closer – Address by the President

6 October 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, first of all, I would like to thank our educators. All Ukrainian teachers, lecturers, and everyone responsible not only for the work of schools and universities in Ukraine, but indeed for the next decades of our nation and the future of Ukrainian children. Despite everything, millions of Ukrainian schoolchildren and students are pursuing their education and profession. In most of our country, this is happening offline, in a normal way, and this is important so that children can gain not only knowledge but also all the necessary social skills and communication abilities. I want to thank every adult in our education system who treats children with genuine respect. I want to thank every teacher who supports children through difficult times, when they make mistakes, and when they experience their first successes – helping them understand how not to stop, and how to achieve even greater results. I also want to thank all local community leaders in Ukraine, regional authorities – everyone who is truly looking for ways to support schools, vocational education, and universities during these incredibly challenging times. Special thanks to those who are not usually mentioned, but without whom it is impossible to imagine the educational process. Authors and employees of publishing houses who write and print Ukrainian textbooks and educational literature in general – I thank you all. The education system always depends on many people who do their jobs every day, and thanks to them, our country and society can endure, live, pass down Ukrainian culture from generation to generation, and become stronger.

Today, I held a meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to discuss our work over the coming weeks and communication with partners. I also spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. There was a report on the current situation at the front. The Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Lyman directions. The Commander-in-Chief, along with other military officials and representatives of the Ministry of Defense, will work with our partners next week on the details of the Victory Plan – both military and strategic security points. I’ve sent our representatives to Washington: Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych and Deputy Prime Minister Stefanishyna. There was also a report on the Kursk operation. Today marks two months of our military operations in the Kursk region. And this is a very important phase of the war. Something that has greatly helped and continues to help our country. Ukrainians have proven that they can push the war into Russia. And with sufficient support from our partners, we will be able to put pressure on Russia in the way that’s necessary for Russia to realize that the war will gain them nothing.

And of course, I would like to thank all our guys – every unit – who are doing everything to replenish the exchange fund for Ukraine. Our Kursk operation has made one of the biggest contributions to the exchange fund, aiding the release of Ukrainians from captivity. This is important. We will continue to apply even greater pressure on Russia – because only through strength can we bring peace closer. Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine! I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

На щите pic.twitter.com/W8OqVLBygZ

— Лісовий Бралюкас (@djxtrees) October 6, 2024

The machine translates is:

On the shield

Which is a reference to the Spartiate admonition to come home “with your shield or on it.”

Any Russian national actively helping the Ukrainian military or even fighting in Ukrainian ranks has done much more for the liberation of their country than all those high-life cocktail drinkers and it’s-only-Putin’s-war demagogues (who are, for some reason, called ‘Russian… pic.twitter.com/sMXaVhMKbw

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 6, 2024

Any Russian national actively helping the Ukrainian military or even fighting in Ukrainian ranks has done much more for the liberation of their country than all those high-life cocktail drinkers and it’s-only-Putin’s-war demagogues (who are, for some reason, called ‘Russian opposition’) all combined.

R.I.P. to Ildar Dadin, who was killed in action at Kharkiv to help Ukraine defeat Russian fascism.

Opposition activist Ildar Dadin, who was the first Russian to be jailed (in 2015) under a repressive new law on holding peaceful protests, has reportedly been killed fighting for Ukraine

“If you keep quiet, tomorrow the next person will keep quiet when they come for you,” this… https://t.co/sFKqArDfD6 pic.twitter.com/ls9jOSVnhN

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) October 6, 2024

Opposition activist Ildar Dadin, who was the first Russian to be jailed (in 2015) under a repressive new law on holding peaceful protests, has reportedly been killed fighting for Ukraine

“If you keep quiet, tomorrow the next person will keep quiet when they come for you,” this placard from one of his protests says

Today, we celebrate the Territorial Defense Day!
The warriors of the Territorial Defense Forces are a trustworthy shield for your loved ones, your native cities and villages, and millions of Ukrainians.
Thank you for your courage and commitment to Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/EFbhuoLFgG

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 6, 2024

Today is the Day of the Territorial Defense Forces, honoring the warriors and units that, together with all components of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Forces, protect our country and our people.

Since the very first days of the full-scale war, thousands of warriors from the… pic.twitter.com/zvu0ogDfDv

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 6, 2024

Today is the Day of the Territorial Defense Forces, honoring the warriors and units that, together with all components of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Forces, protect our country and our people.

Since the very first days of the full-scale war, thousands of warriors from the Territorial Defense Forces have demonstrated the best qualities of the Ukrainian character—courage and loyalty to Ukraine.

The defense of the north: the capital, Chernihiv, Sumy. The defense of Kharkiv, battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and in the south of our country.

We are proud of everyone who is truly resilient. We are grateful to all who destroy the enemy and fight for Ukraine to live. And we honor the memory of those who have fallen in the battles for Ukraine.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Today, Ukraine marks the Day of Education Workers: teachers, lecturers, and educators. It is a professional holiday for those entrusted with the most precious thing any family has – the future of their children: their minds, education, talent development, and the growth of… pic.twitter.com/oXj0FGBlcn

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 6, 2024

Today, Ukraine marks the Day of Education Workers: teachers, lecturers, and educators. It is a professional holiday for those entrusted with the most precious thing any family has – the future of their children: their minds, education, talent development, and the growth of bright, independent, and self-sufficient individuals.

I am grateful to all educators who, despite everything, teach our children the best things in life, teach them integrity, how to value those around them, share their experience while learning from the experience of new generations, and guide our children in how to view the world and equip them to succeed.

We deeply appreciate our educators’ dedication and the invaluable contribution they make to building a strong and prosperous Ukraine.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

The Netherlands:

I held productive negotiations with the delegation led by the Minister of Defense of the Netherlands Ruben Brekelmans. @rubenbrekelmans

I am sincerely grateful for the comprehensive assistance provided by the Netherlands for protection against russian aggression. The F-16s in… pic.twitter.com/IgofxZ8Sgm

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) October 6, 2024

I held productive negotiations with the delegation led by the Minister of Defense of the Netherlands Ruben Brekelmans. @rubenbrekelmans

I am sincerely grateful for the comprehensive assistance provided by the Netherlands for protection against russian aggression. The F-16s in our skies are a testament to the unwavering support of the Kingdom’s people and government.

We agreed to enhance cooperation within the aviation coalition, including crew training and the supply of weapons and spare parts for aircraft.

Together with our team, we urged partners to invest even more in Ukrainian defense production.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇳🇱

For the first time, I can officially announce that the first Dutch F-16s have been delivered to Ukraine.

This is urgently needed. In Kharkiv, I saw the damage from Russian airstrikes and heard frequent air raid alarms.

The rest of the 24 jets will follow in the coming months. pic.twitter.com/Oq6IbxQyWP

— Ruben Brekelmans (@DefensieMin) October 6, 2024

Finland:

Finally, somebody with the brain and the balls to tell the truth!

Recently, the President of Finland Alexander Stubb presented four conditions of a “Peace Plan” during an interview which Fox News.

1/n

2/ Long-lasting peace in Ukraine and in the world is possible only if the following four conditions are met:

1. Territory. All l territories along the 1991 border should be returned to Ukraine. If not, it’s only a matter of time before the new war breaks up again in the future.

3/ 2. Security guarantees. Ukraine should be included in NATO or be given similar concrete security guarantees. If not, it’s only a matter of time before the war flares up again.

4/ 3. Punishment. Those responsible for the “special military operation” must be punished. And not only the master of the Kremlin, but all who was involved.

5/ If not, it’s only a matter of time until other criminals see that crimes are not punished and they can do whatever they want.

6/ 4. Reparations. Full compensation for material, human, and other losses. If not, it’s only a matter of time until both the Kremlin czars and their international counterparts attack their neighbors.

7/ Alexander Stubb emphasized that this logic should work not because someone “cares for Ukraine.” Not for ethical reasons. But simple pragmatic reasons.

8/ If these 4 conditions are not met, it is only a matter of time until new “special military operations” take place all over the world.

9/ It is cheaper and more reliable to ensure that these 4 conditions are fulfilled now, than to have multiple wars emerge in the years to come.

Lithuania:

❗️Lithuania finds several shipments of military equipment on trains from Kaliningrad to Moscow

Lithuanian customs officials have stepped up checks on passenger trains traveling from Kaliningrad to Moscow. As a result, they discovered several consignments of military equipment… pic.twitter.com/coAuCF6KxC

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 6, 2024

❗️Lithuania finds several shipments of military equipment on trains from Kaliningrad to Moscow

Lithuanian customs officials have stepped up checks on passenger trains traveling from Kaliningrad to Moscow. As a result, they discovered several consignments of military equipment disguised as ordinary cargo.

Lithuanian customs transferred the confiscated goods as an aid to Ukraine.

Ireland:

Honeytrapped Irish politician spied for Russia during Brexit negotiations to try to upset the discussions between Ireland, the UK and EU. He continues to work in parliament and “for legal reasons” can’t be named. What a s..tshow. https://t.co/7dlGOuSwbh

— Sir William Browder KCMG (@Billbrowder) October 6, 2024

From The Sunday Times:

Russian intelligence used a “honeytrap” to recruit an Irish politician as an agent for the Kremlin during the Brexit talks.

One of the aims was to undermine relations between Britain, Ireland and the EU. The Irish military and security services identified the agent but, remarkably, they are still at large in the country’s parliament.

Their identity is known to The Sunday Times but for legal reasons we are calling them “Cobalt”. A surveillance operation found they met Sergey Prokopiev, a Russian spy who worked out of the Russian embassy in Dublin between 2019 and 2022. In a meeting outside Dublin, Cobalt, who was under surveillance by the military and the Irish police, the gardai, offered to connect the Russians and paramilitaries in Northern Ireland at a sensitive time in the Brexit talks.

Intelligence sources believe the Kremlin hoped to exploit tensions and undermine relations between the UK, Ireland and the EU. Loyalist paramilitaries were threatening violence over the 2019 and 2020 Brexit deals, which created a customs border in the Irish Sea, to prevent a land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Security chiefs believe that Cobalt, who has received no payments from the Russians, was recruited as part of a honeytrap operation, where an enemy intelligence officer or agent lures the target into compromising sexual encounters.

Several meetings between Cobalt and a female agent were logged. She was monitored entering the state on several occasions for short periods, but no action could be taken as Cobalt was not breaking any law.

‘He allowed himself to be used’

The public figure’s internet history, intercepted during travels abroad, is understood to have played a role in securing “kompromat” against him. According to flight data seen by The Sunday Times, Cobalt has travelled to countries outside the European Union where the Russian intelligence services operate freely.

Security sources also believe ego played a significant role in his willingness to co-operate. “They used him but he allowed himself to be used,” one said.

Cobalt was approached by Irish special branch officers and formally warned that he was being targeted by the Russians. His dismissal of those concerns strengthened their suspicions about his activities.

Prokopiev, a colonel in the GRU, Russian military intelligence, worked undercover as a counsellor at the Russian embassy. He was one of four Russian diplomats kicked out of Ireland in 2022 after being identified as undeclared intelligence officers, parts of a wave of 600 expulsions of Russian spies across the West after the invasion of Ukraine.

Cobalt’s recruitment is the first known infiltration of the Irish parliament by a hostile intelligence service in modern times but follows several efforts to compromise politicians in the UK as part of Russia’s “active measures” to destabilise western society.

Cobalt could not be arrested or charged with espionage because he did not have access to any classified material, therefore could not disclose its contents to a hostile state. The security services believe he was used as an asset: an easily influenced person who could make introductions, disrupt public debate or air the Kremlin’s views when prompted. He remains a person of interest to Garda intelligence and J2, the military intelligence branch of the Irish defence forces.

Mark Galeotti, the Russia expert, said using a politician to discreetly upset sentiments around Brexit and other political issues must have looked like a “fantastic opportunity” for the Russians.

“Wherever there are social fracture lines, some smart, ruthless, imaginative and morally bankrupt Russian intelligence officer is working out how to widen it a little further. Politicians are classic targets for Russian services. They have access, they have careers where they work on committees, and they have large egos. Ego is one of the most reliable ways of recruiting people,” he said.

“Politicians have protection because who is going to go after them without evidence? They are in contact with all sorts of people ranging from senior officials all the way through to paramilitaries. Generally speaking, Russian services would look at anyone with access as a valuable catch.”

Kevin Riehle, a lecturer at Brunel University in London who previously served in various counterintelligence roles in the United States, said that the honeytrap was consistent with Russian active measures. Riehle suspects the Russians who secretly interacted with Cobalt let him know they knew certain things about him.

War for Ukraine Day 955: Russia Downs Its Own New Attack Drone Over Ukraine So the Ukrainians Can’t Get Their Hands On It

by Adam L Silverman| October 5, 20247:58 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing very well. Thank you for all the good thoughts, prayers, well wishes, and donations.

Second, the tropical wave/disturbance they were worried was going to form up where Helene did and basically follow Helene’s track up the gulf this weekend instead slowly meandered across the Yucatan and is now in the western Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Milton. It is expected to track southwest to northeast across the gulf from where it is and make landfall somewhere in Florida as a category 3 hurricane sometime on Wednesday or Thursday. Unfortunately, by the time the forecasting and modeling tightens up it will be late Monday. So if you may be in the path of the storm, which is almost all of Florida, start making your plans now knowing you may have to adjust on the fly. At noon today it was supposed to make landfall between Sarasota and Bradenton. Now it is supposed to make landfall on St. Pete Beach and track diagonally across Pinellas County, through Tampa Bay, over Tampa, and then continue northeast across the state. We are well into the uncertainty part of the forecast at this point and they won’t know where the track will shift = north or south – until we are far, far, far too close to landfall.

Last night in comments UncleEbeneezer wrote:

Hey Adam, semi-tangent but sort of on topic: I recently went down a rabbit-hole about the Soviet Anti-Zionist propaganda campaigns from 1920’s-80’s, mostly reading the

GEC Special Report: More Than a Century of Antisemitism:

How Successive Occupants of the Kremlin Have Used Antisemitism to Spread Disinformation and Propaganda

As well as:
Demonization Blueprints: Soviet Conspiracist Antizionism in Contemporary Left-Wing Discourse by Izabella Tabarovsky and I was just curious (since this is right in your area of expertise) as to her reputation as an historian of Soviet AntiSemitism? Is she reputable? It all looks pretty legit to my untrained eye. And it is wild to me to think that almost every major framing I’ve seen from the Left wrt Gaza over the past year (and sometimes Ukraine too), are rooted in an AntiSemitic propaganda campaign from the USSSR. This seems like the sort of thing more people should be aware of.

Going in reverse order, I’ve bever heard of Tabarovksy. She appears to be a professional think tanker, bouncing from one to the next. Or at multiple ones at the same time. I know some people at the GEC and am professionally familiar with their work. It’s quality stuff. Thanks for bringing this to everyone’s attention.

Russia tried to attack Ukraine with it’s new S-70 Okhotnik heavy attack UAV/drone. When the Russians realized it was in danger, they shot it down themselves. Or they shout it down by mistake, with the Russians you can’t really tell. Anyhow, it landed in Ukraine near Konstantynivka, which means the Ukrainians are already doing exploitation operations.

Looks like Russia’s newest S-70 Okhotnik heavy attack UAV shot down near Kostiantynivka. The drone crashed in Ukrainian territory, meaning Ukraine and its allies will get as much as possible out of the wreckage. 1/ pic.twitter.com/2v0A2wFpfi

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 5, 2024

Okhotnik attack drone debuted on August 3, 2019, though many thought it was vaporware. It has a range of 6,000 km, carrying up to 2.8 tons of weapons and is supposed to work under the control of pilots of Su-57 jets pic.twitter.com/WkX2IJhWqD

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 5, 2024

No wonder everybody mistook it for a manned aircraft first pic.twitter.com/Xzy4agwHHQ

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 5, 2024

Ooopsie!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Everything Outlined in the Victory Plan is Absolutely Realistic for Our Partners – Address by the President

5 October 2024 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Currently, our teams – of Ukraine and of the United States, the teams of our other partners are working on preparing the Ramstein – substantive decisions, and, in general, next week’s meetings and negotiations. And this week can be positive for our defense, for our vision of how the war should end. We will do everything for it, we will do it one hundred percent. We will do it effectively.

In the coming days, there will be political consultations between our teams: government officials and diplomats. The military will also speak on the content of the Victory Plan’s military points. This is something that can rather quickly strengthen Ukraine, Ukraine’s positions – primarily, our frontline. And everything outlined in the Plan is absolutely realistic for our partners. The world has this resource for reinforcement that will allow us to move forward according to the Peace Formula.

This is our goal, our task – to guarantee Ukraine reliable peace and long-term security. This is possible only based on international law and without any bargaining over sovereignty or trading territories. Exactly as envisaged by the Peace Formula. Ukraine needs peace – real and just – guaranteed protection from war. This is possible only from strong positions. And only when both our people and our partners are truly united. This is what we are working for. I thank everyone who is helping us, and who, just like us, is ready to make next week historic in many ways.

And one more thing. I want to acknowledge our warriors, who are also, in a way, preparing the next Ramstein. In other words, they demonstrate what Ukrainians are capable of when they have enough weapons and sufficient range. I want to thank all the warriors of the Special Operations Center “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine – all those who demilitarize Russian military facilities. I want to thank you, guys, for destroying Russian military logistics, and especially for hitting Russian military airfields. This is the most needed thing. Every destroyed Russian military base, every destroyed Russian airbase, every destroyed warehouse with aerial bombs saves the lives of Ukrainians and provides real support for the front. And we will keep convincing our partners that our drones alone are not enough. More decisive steps are needed – and the end of this war will be closer. I am sure of it!

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUa

We are preparing for the 25th Ramstein meeting on October 12, which will be the first to take place at the leaders’ level.

We will present the Victory Plan—clear, concrete steps towards a just end to the war. The determination of our partners and the… pic.twitter.com/keSiIp8xeu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 5, 2024

President @ZelenskyyUa

We are preparing for the 25th Ramstein meeting on October 12, which will be the first to take place at the leaders’ level.

We will present the Victory Plan—clear, concrete steps towards a just end to the war. The determination of our partners and the strengthening of Ukraine are what can stop Russian aggression.

We extend our gratitude to everyone who is helping to defend our state, Europe, and the entire world.

The problem that President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians face is that President Biden and his team are not really dictating the policy and strategy decisions here, Putin is. Yesterday, Andrew Exum, who was Obama’s last Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, had an essay published at The Atlantic regarding President Biden, his team, and the relationship with Bibi and the Israelis. This bit is very accurate and very enlightening: (emphasis mine)

President Joe Biden’s actions over many months suggest that Israel can determine when and where the United States goes to war in the Middle East. That is unacceptable, and the next American president must change this dynamic.

In one framing, the past 12 months have witnessed a remarkable display of America’s might and resolve in the Middle East—especially relative to our principal adversary in the region, Iran. Since October of last year, Israel has severely degraded Iran’s two most important affiliates in the area, Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran has lashed out directly only twice, with one ballistic-missile assault in April and another this month—both largely neutralized by U.S., Israeli, and allied air and missile defenses.

The United States, in contrast with Iran, has backed its principal affiliate in the region, Israel, to the fullest extent. It has shipped billions of dollars of military equipment and munitions to Israel over the past 12 months, on top of the roughly $3.8 billion it already provides annually; shared sensitive intelligence to allow Israel to target Hamas’s senior leaders and recover its hostages; and repeatedly deployed its own troops to defend Israel from assault. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertions that Israel stands alone are at once laughable and insulting.

Yet few people in the Middle East, or at home, would view the United States as particularly strong at the moment in the region. The reason is that the Biden administration has made abundantly clear over the past year that it has chosen not to dictate the terms of its own Middle East policy. It has repeatedly allowed Netanyahu and the rest of Israel’s leadership to do so instead.

In April, Israel conducted an air strike in Damascus on a facility adjacent to the Iranian embassy. The United States received no warning about the strike; Biden and his advisers were caught unaware. The strike killed seven Iranian officers. Then Iran and its affiliates in the region launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. But the United States and several of its partners—most notably Jordan, France, the United Kingdom—helped blunt the attack with a coordinated display of air and missile defenses.

With that, a Rubicon had been quietly crossed. Israel had always boasted that a generous supply of U.S. arms allowed Israel to fight its own fights, and that no American soldier had ever been asked to fight Israel’s battles for it. But America has tens of thousands of troops semipermanently garrisoned in the region, in part to respond to contingencies involving Israel, and by interceding to thwart the missile attack, American troops were fighting directly on Israel’s behalf.

The same dynamic that Exum has described in regard to Israel is very similar to the one between the US and Ukraine. At one level the US, led by Biden and his senior natsec team look strong. They’ve added new members to NATO, they’ve sent a large amount of money and material to keep Ukraine from being overrun by Putin and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. What they’ve also done is dribble support out with significant restrictions to prevent the war escalating. Biden and his team have let Bibi drive the US decision-making in regard to Israel and we have a similar situation regarding Ukraine. The difference is that Bibi freely gets to cross every one of Biden’s red lines, while Biden is too scared to cross any of Putin’s. The results, however, are the same. Decisions are being made for the US not in DC, but in Jerusalem and Moscow.

The other major difference is that President Zelenskyy is publicly very grateful for all the support, while Bibi has gone out of his way to repeatedly claim Israel is on its own, no one, not even the US supports it, etc.

Regardless, this is what President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians are up against. Until they can figure out how to win the fight with President Biden and his senior natsec team and get them to stop letting Putin dictate the terms of US support, they’re going to be stuck trying to grind this out with just enough support to not lose, but not enough to win.

Ben Hall of the Financial Times has more on this.

Welcome back. Ukraine has scaled back its war aims. Although it remains committed to recovering the lands seized by Russia over the past decade, it regrettably lacks the manpower, weaponry and western support to do it.

Ukraine’s new strategy — presented by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to US leaders last week — is to ask its allies to strengthen its hand, militarily and diplomatically, to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Western diplomats and increasingly Ukrainian officials have come round to the view that meaningful security guarantees could form the basis of a negotiated settlement in which Russian retains de facto, but not de jure, control of all or part of the Ukrainian territory it currently occupies. I’m at [email protected]

Land for Nato membership
To be clear, neither Kyiv nor its supporters are proposing to recognise Russia sovereignty over the one-fifth of Ukrainian territory it has illegally grabbed since 2014. To do so would encourage further Russian aggression and severely undermine the international legal order.

What is envisaged is tacit acceptance that those lands should be regained through diplomatic means in the future. Even that, understandably, is a sensitive issue for Ukrainians, especially when presented as the basis of a compromise with Moscow. Ceding land to gain Nato membership may be the “only game in town”, as a western diplomat told us, but for Ukrainians it remains a taboo, in public at least.

What is being more openly discussed is the nature and timing of the security guarantees Ukraine will need to underpin a settlement.

In Washington Zelenskyy restated his pitch for accelerated membership of Nato.

The problem is the US is against moving beyond the agreed position of the alliance that Ukraine’s “future is in Nato”, that its accession is on an “irreversible path” and that it will be invited to join “when allies agree and conditions are met”. It fears that offering a mutual defence guarantee under the Nato treaty’s Article 5 before the war is over would simply draw in the US and its allies.

But some of Ukraine’s allies say this need not be the case. “There are ways of solving that,” Jens Stoltenberg, the Norwegian who stood down as Nato secretary-general this week, told my colleague Henry Foy in a farewell Lunch with the FT interview.

Stoltenberg pointed out that the security guarantees that the US provides to Japan do not cover the Kuril Islands, four of which Japan claims as its own but which are controlled by Russia after being seized by the Soviet Union in 1945.

He also cited Germany, which joined Nato in 1955, despite being divided. Only West Germany was covered by the Nato umbrella.

“When there is a will, there are ways to find the solution. But you need a line which defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine has to control all the territory until that border,” he said.

From Bonn to Kyiv
The West German model for Ukraine has been discussed in foreign policy circles for more than 18 months.

Dan Fried, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe, was one of the first to make the argument in this piece for Just Security. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato and Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Stoltenberg’s predecessor Anders Fogh Rasmussen and FT contributing editor Ivan Krastev have made similar arguments.

The idea is also gaining traction in official circles.

“I don’t think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite,” Petr Pavel, the Czech president and a former Nato general, told Novinky a Právo newspaper.

“If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat [that] as temporary and accept Ukraine into Nato in the territory it will control at that time,” Pavel said.

Most proponents acknowledge that Moscow would hate this idea. Sceptics fear it could provoke an escalation. Nato membership would guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow it to pursue its western orientation, goals that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is determined to destroy.

Perhaps the most persuasive argument came from the US cold war historian Mary Sarotte in this piece for Foreign Affairs.

Sarotte’s contention is that the terms of Nato membership can be adapted to suit individual circumstances. Norway pledged not to house a Nato base on its territory when it became a founding member. West Germany’s strategy was to make clear its borders were provisional. It had to tolerate division indefinitely but not accept it, and renounce the use of force to retake East Germany.

Ukraine should, she wrote, define a military defensible border, agree to not permanently station troops or nuclear weapons on its territory unless threatened with attack, and renounce use of force beyond that border except in self-defence.

Nato membership under these terms would be presented to Moscow as a fait accompli, Sarotte added. But there would still be an implicit negotiation: “instead of a land-for-peace deal, the carrot would be no [Nato] infrastructure for peace”.

The bear does the poking
Other analysts argue West Germany is a bad parallel because its borders, though provisional, were recognised by both sides. In Ukraine they are being fought over every day.

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, head of the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Foreign Policy’s Anchal Vohra last year “you have the potential of all kinds of problems emanating from the revisionism of both sides. For example, it will be up to Vladimir Putin to define Article 5, whether some of his poking falls below or above that threshold.’’

There is also the big question of whether the US, let alone its European allies, would be prepared to make the force commitments necessary to defend a Ukraine inside the alliance. While France has warmed to the idea of faster Ukraine Nato accession, German chancellor Olaf Scholz is firmly opposed, fearing his country could be drawn into another war against Russia.

In the US, the Biden administration has so far refused to budge on accelerating Kyiv’s membership. Would a Kamala Harris presidency treat it differently? Could Donald Trump imagine the West German model as part of his proposed “deal” to end the war? Could Zelenskyy sell it to his people?

There are many obstacles still on Kyiv’s Nato path. But the west patently lacks a strategy for Ukraine to prevail.

As Sarotte concludes, following the West German route “would be far preferable, for Ukraine and the alliance, than continuing to put off membership until Putin has given up his ambitions in Ukraine or until Russia has made a military breakthrough. This path would bring Ukraine closer to enduring security, freedom, and prosperity in the face of Russian isolation — in other words, towards victory.”

I can honestly tell you right now that what is being proposed above is not going to work. The Biden administration isn’t going to go for it. If Trump is reelected it will be irrelevant as he’ll cut Ukraine off from US aid and give Putin a green light to complete his genocidal re-invasion. We don’t really know what a Harris administration will do yet. Regardless, this isn’t going to fly in Ukraine. Right now a lot of EU member state leaders are hiding behind Biden and only stepping out into the sunlight, like Scholtz, on occasion.

If they do this, you know exactly where russia will test Article V. https://t.co/sxkehYpZqw

— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) October 5, 2024

And that’s before we even begin to really focus on what we’d be condemning these occupied Ukrainians too:

And these are not all of the cities that Russian bombs have wiped off the map in Ukraine during Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Hundreds more cities, towns and villages have been reduced to rubble. And Russian forces are still pressing toward others like Pokrovsk… https://t.co/5FjrOiW7zF

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 5, 2024

The video of russians murdering a Ukrainian POW, unarmed and tortured, with his hands tied, should serve as a stark reminder to Western partners who want to normalize relations with russia at any cost: forcing Ukraine into capitulation will bring this terror much closer to you.

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) October 4, 2024

The perpetual cycle when dealing with Putin and Russia. “You were right. We should have listened to you. But we are going to keep making the same mistake and still aren’t going to listen to you now.” https://t.co/WhX8JCIT1N

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 5, 2024

I feel seen.

Robin Brooks at the Brookings Institution has been doing yeoman’s work documenting how Russia is evading sanctions via transshipment through the central Asian states, which is something we discussed would happen way back in March of 2022.

Thailand’s exports to Kyrgyzstan have started booming. The issue here isn’t Thai exports per se. The numbers involved are small. Instead, the issue is that every country in the world is doing this and it’s getting worse. When you add it all up, the transshipment racket is huge… pic.twitter.com/WHEz4q5fGE

— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) October 5, 2024

If you ever wondered what you’d have done to stop Hitler, you’re doing it now. https://t.co/utIyR79fC4

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) October 5, 2024

And that’s not counting what is being sourced through North Korea:

Around half of the artillery shells used by Russia, approximately 3 million annually, come from North Korea, according to The Times. Despite many shells being considered defective, their sheer quantity has enabled Russia to make steady advances, including the capture of Vuhledar… pic.twitter.com/7inUyCqsB2

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 5, 2024

Around half of the artillery shells used by Russia, approximately 3 million annually, come from North Korea, according to The Times. Despite many shells being considered defective, their sheer quantity has enabled Russia to make steady advances, including the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk. In early 2024, during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, a defense pact was signed between Russia and North Korea.

https://thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs

From The Sunday Times:

Half of the shells used by Russia — about three million a year — are being supplied by North Korea, according to western intelligence.

President Putin travelled to Pyongyang earlier this year to sign a defence pact with Kim Jong-un and the Kremlin has become dependent on the shuttered authoritarian state to maintain its advances in eastern Ukraine, intelligence sources say.

Although many of the shells are believed to be faulty, the sheer quantity has allowed Russia to make steady gains, most recently capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Vuhledar.

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, warned in September that shipments of North Korean shells were tilting the war in Russia’s favour. “Our biggest problem from all these allies of Russia is from North Korea. Because with the volume of military products that they supply, they actually affect the intensity of the fighting,” he said.

During the initial years of the war, Russia’s allies appeared reluctant to actively supply Moscow with weapons. However, Putin’s efforts to build an anti-western coalition appear to be paying off and are having an impact on the battlefield.

The Times revealed in September that Iran has shipped 200 ballistic missiles to Russia, while China has hosted and assisted a Russian defence company in building long-range drones. Western officials believe there is “clear evidence” that China is playing an increasingly active role.

Despite the recent gains, Russia is suffering a high casualty rate of 1,200 soldiers a day in Ukraine, western officials assessed. It includes 480 casualties a day in the battle for Pokrovsk, the key garrison town in Donetsk that looks increasingly vulnerable to Russian capture.

Here’s more on the Russians’ criminal treatment of Ukrainian POWs:

English subtitles included

— Nastya Stanko (@StankoNastya) October 4, 2024

Here’s the full video. I haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, but proceed as if it will have disturbing and graphic imagery.

Kherson:

#Kherson #DroneAttacks

Today,

🔴4 injured by a drone attack on an ambulance in a suburb

🔴A man, 55, killed by a drone

🔴Men, 59, 60, injured by a drone

🔴3 more injured

🔴An attack on a bus with 20 passengers, all civilians

🎥My report from a market today. pic.twitter.com/Zl6Wt13p0f

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 5, 2024

The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis:

Russia’s equipment losses over the past year on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis have been extraordinary. https://t.co/iX2vh3BZOO

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 4, 2024

Here’s more on the downed Russian heavy drone in Konstantynivka:

So Russia was, apparently, testing its supercool top-secret Inokhodets swarm-slave jet drone [“Russian Skyborg”] above the Donbas frontline but it went astray and kinda tried defecting to Ukraine🙃 so they killed it midair – with the debris falling in UA-controlled area. https://t.co/XFXoGlnC3x

— Alex Panchenko (@AlexPanchenko2) October 5, 2024

✈️💥A brief description of the entire incident with the crash of the Russian aircraft in one post:

About two hours ago, reports began to appear in both Ukrainian and Russian sources about the downing of an aircraft in the Konstantynivka area, Donetsk front.

Almost immediately… https://t.co/iG5vdbCb73 pic.twitter.com/A8f72z7fdh

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 5, 2024

✈️💥A brief description of the entire incident with the crash of the Russian aircraft in one post:

About two hours ago, reports began to appear in both Ukrainian and Russian sources about the downing of an aircraft in the Konstantynivka area, Donetsk front.

Almost immediately after this, in a short time, a number of photos and videos from the site of the wreckage followed. According to the published material, it became clear that this was a Russian aircraft that crashed on territory controlled by Ukraine.

However, at first, an erroneous conclusion was made that the wreckage belonged to a Su-25. A small detail that some immediately noticed was an atypical camouflage pattern that had not previously been seen on Russian Su-25s.

Then followed the publication of a number of videos by various sources showing that the aircraft was shot down by friendly Russian fire from another aircraft, as well as videos of the wreckage falling to the ground. The shape of the falling wreckage did not match the shape of the Su-25 fuselage.

As a result, with the publication of even more material and clearer photos of the wreckage, it was finally established that the downed aircraft was a Russian Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV).

🧵More videos and photos of the crash site, moment of friendly fire incident and falling debris available in attached thread

/7. Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B – is a Russian stealth heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). It is known that only two of these were built. pic.twitter.com/FidKt0b3dU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 5, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

/6. Downed Russian aircraft was not a Su-25 but S-70 drone.

Russian sources associated with Russian military aviation confirm that it was a drone which was shot down in a friendly fire incident:

“All our planes and crews are home. Alive, healthy and safe. Well, the fact that we have one less drone, that happens. That’s what testing is for.”

And then there was one…

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 955: Russia Downs Its Own New Attack Drone Over Ukraine So the Ukrainians Can’t Get Their Hands On ItPost + Comments (21)

War for Ukraine Day 954: Sure Jan

by Adam L Silverman| October 4, 20248:40 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing very well at the end of the week after her most recent treatment. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donation.

Second, it has been a long, draining week. Something from the hurricane seems to have broken most FloriDuhans’ brains and everyone is driving like its Death Race 2024 out there. I’m going to just run through the basics so I can go rack out.

The DOD Deputy Press Secretary held a briefing yesterday. Her remarks have not gone over well in Ukraine. Also, in my living room.

Q: Thank you. So today, President Zelenskyy urged NATO allies to help intercept Iranian missiles and drones over Ukraine, as they do with Israel. Can the United States and allies help Ukraine with that? I mean since it’s possible Israel, why cannot it be done with Ukraine?

MS. SINGH: So thank you for the question. While I appreciate the question, we are talking about two very different landscapes and battlefields. The president, at the very beginning of when Russia invaded Ukraine, has directed this department to provide Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield.

They have been very successful in employing, whether it be air defenses or other capabilities, to continue to take back their territory. The secretary just had a call with Mr. Umerov, getting that battlefield update, getting to better understand what other capabilities they might need, if any. The president has made a commitment that the United States is not putting boots on the ground into Ukraine, but we are supporting Ukraine in their efforts to take back their sovereign territory.

Q: Well, shooting those targets, say from Polish or Romanian territory, would that be putting boots on the ground?

MS. SINGH: That would be involving us in a war in a different way. And right now, we feel that Ukraine has been able to successfully defend against Russian strikes to their cities, to their populations, to their infrastructure. And we’re going to continue to make sure that they have the support that they need to do that.

Then, give the Ukrainians the damned guns and permissions to defend themselves! Most of the thousands of relevant weapons and platforms in Western armies will never be used & end up as scrap metal. This stuff was once built to fight the Russian army & can now be used accordingly. https://t.co/jLIsdK6u7H

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) October 4, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Have Decisions to Support the Sumy Region, and More Separate Meetings Will Be Held on the Energy Sector of This and Our Other Border Regions – Address by the President

4 October 2024 – 18:28

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today – the Sumy region, regional work. I held a meeting of the Staff here, and the main issue is the defense of our infrastructure, our energy sector – the operation of air defense. There was a report from our military – the Air Force, the East Command, as well as a report from the Minister of Energy; we had representatives of state energy companies, heads of all levels of the vertical between the Government and communities. We have decisions to support the region, and more separate meetings will be held on the energy sector of the Sumy and our other border regions. Before winter, the most important thing is a resilience reserve. There were reports from the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, our law enforcement officials. The report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi on the frontline – this is the Donetsk directions, this is the Kharkiv region, this is the South of the state, the border area, the Kursk region. I visited our warriors taking part in the Kursk operation – the 82nd brigade. I honored them with state awards. I am proud of the bravery of all our guys, our warriors! And it is very important to understand that the Kursk operation is a really strategic thing, one that adds motivation to our partners, adds motivation to stand with Ukraine, to be more determined and put pressure on Russia – to put pressure in a way that can help us to end the war fairly. Today, also here, in the Sumy region, I met with the heads of communities and thanked them for staying in their regions; they are with their people, and they really care and worry about the Sumy region and all of Ukraine. We talked about things that can support all of us – our defense, our people. A particularly emotional meeting was with educators: this Sunday is Education Workers’ Day. I personally thanked them – our teachers, lecturers, heads of educational institutions from the Sumy region, the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions, who were right here today. And all over Ukraine, in all regions, absolutely selfless people really give us hope for the future. When education works, when children, students have the opportunity to study, it means that the country will live, and the children of Ukraine will have a normal life when they grow up.

I want to thank all those who are in Ukraine, with Ukraine, who fight and work for our state, who educate our children, who preserve our Ukrainian culture. We will definitely defend Ukraine! I thank our Sumy region!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy was in Sumy to do a battlefield circulation.

Сьогодні розпочав поїздку на Сумщину із зустрічі з нашими воїнами – хлопцями, які бʼються на Курщині, захищаючи наші прикордонні регіони і всю державу. 82-га бригада. Заслухав доповідь командира, відзначив наших бійців.

Дякую за службу, за захист нашої держави. Дякую всім… pic.twitter.com/iTywAXKtsi

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 4, 2024

Today, I began my visit to the Sumy region with a meeting with our warriors—the guys who are fighting in the Kursk region, defending our border areas and the entire state. The 82nd Brigade. I received a report from the commander and presented awards to our soldiers.

I am grateful for their service and for defending our country. I thank all the commanders, sergeants, and soldiers for the Kursk operation, which has greatly helped us in motivating those who supply us with weapons support packages.

I held another Staff meeting in the Sumy region, focusing on two key issues that are closely related in this region, as well as in other frontline areas: air defense and energy. I received a report from Acting Commander of the Air Force Anatolii Kryvonozhko and Commander of the… pic.twitter.com/YlxYuIoxef

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 4, 2024

I held another Staff meeting in the Sumy region, focusing on two key issues that are closely related in this region, as well as in other frontline areas: air defense and energy. I received a report from Acting Commander of the Air Force Anatolii Kryvonozhko and Commander of the East Air Force Command Ivan Terebukha on the measures the Air Force is taking to strengthen the defense of the Sumy region specifically, other border regions, and the entire country.

I also heard from energy sector officials, including Minister German Galushchenko, about the restoration of power supply in Sumy and the surrounding communities, the further protection of generation and distribution facilities, and the preparation of backup equipment for the winter.

Additionally, I received a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Earlier today, we visited the heroic 82nd Brigade together. During the Staff meeting, the Commander-in-Chief briefed me on the overall frontline situation, the most challenging directions, the course of the Kursk operation, the supply of equipment and ammunition to the frontlines, and the manning of the brigades.

Суми. Відвідав наших воїнів, які лікуються після поранень, поспілкувався з ними та відзначив державними нагородами.

Дякую за службу! Дякую за те, що захищаєте нашу державу, за всі кроки для захисту України! Дякую медиками за те, що вони рятують життя наших воїнів! pic.twitter.com/NWjbY5MFLt

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 4, 2024

In Sumy, I visited our warriors, who are recovering from wounds, spoke with them, and presented them with state awards.

I am grateful for their service, for protecting our country, and for every step they take to defend Ukraine. I also thank the medical staff for saving the lives of our brave soldiers.

Dracarys!

Truly unique combat footage: a “dragon” drone spews molten thermite on russian tank and destroys it.

📹: 30th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/gPPQ8mMmXz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 4, 2024

This is interesting:

“Nothing will stop until Ukraine collapses […] It’s difficult now even to mention the idea of peace—anyone saying such a thing will be made to shut up.”

Another must-read from @faridaily_ and @mtovkaylo on the darkening mood in Moscow over Ukrainehttps://t.co/lV4Vkl28mB

— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 4, 2024

From FariDaily:

Those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin do not expect the war in Ukraine to end anytime soon, according to multiple sources in the upper echelons of the Russian government. The Russian elite increasingly sees peace talks as a distant prospect, believing Ukraine’s seizure of territory in Kursk region has been a big blow to Putin’s self-regard.

“It’s all gone too far. I don’t believe there will be any sort of peace process. Nothing will stop until Ukraine collapses,” said the head of a large state-owned company in Russia who is in regular contact with Putin.

The darkening of the mood in Moscow comes as Russian forces continue with a bloody offensive in eastern Ukraine. While territorial gains have come at a high cost, Russia recently seized the strategic town of Vuhledar, which has been the scene of intense fighting since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Those who support peace talks with Ukraine in the Russian elite are now very much in the minority, according to sources. Before the attack on Kursk region, there was greater support for negotiations, said one official who is under Western sanctions. “It’s difficult now even to mention the idea of peace—anyone saying such a thing will be made to shut up,” he added.

According to another official who meets regularly with Putin, the chance of peace talks would diminish even further if the West gives permission for Kyiv to launch long-range Western missiles at Russian territory—something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking. “This would be a big escalation,” he said.

War for Ukraine Day 953: Would You Look at That, Apparently You Can Bomb a Russian Airbase Deep Behind the Lines, Who Knew?

by Adam L Silverman| October 3, 20247:50 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, thank you all for the Rosh HaShana wishes.

Apparently you can strike a Russian base well behind enemy lines.

Helping Ukraine defeat Russia will isolate Iran, thus degrading Iranian support for Hizbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. It will also send a message of deterrence to China. These wars are connected…parts of one strategic challenge to our way of life, requiring political will,… https://t.co/0WpSL1Njuh

— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) October 3, 2024

Helping Ukraine defeat Russia will isolate Iran, thus degrading Iranian support for Hizbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. It will also send a message of deterrence to China. These wars are connected…parts of one strategic challenge to our way of life, requiring political will, industrial capacity and military capability.

Who knew?

I expect that the Biden administration will now turn off the long range weapons systems and the flow of long range weapons to Ukra… Wait, I’m getting an update: Israel.

Never mind.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from last night’s Russian attack:

Russia continues to terrorize the civilian population of Ukraine, overnight launching 105 Shahed kamikaze drones onto several regions of the country.

Despite the relentless attacks, Ukrainian air forces are still downing the majority – this time successfully eliminating 78.… pic.twitter.com/lxyFOsOP5f

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) October 3, 2024

Russia continues to terrorize the civilian population of Ukraine, overnight launching 105 Shahed kamikaze drones onto several regions of the country.

Despite the relentless attacks, Ukrainian air forces are still downing the majority – this time successfully eliminating 78.

Ukraine is forbidden by the US to strike the source of the attacks with western weapons.

⚡️Russia launches mass drone attack on Ukraine, 15 drones downed in Kyiv.

About 15 Russian drones were detected and shot down near Kyiv overnight on Oct. 3, city authorities said.https://t.co/ZJPbSq3sC2

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 3, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

About 15 Russian drones were detected and shot down near Kyiv overnight on Oct. 3, city authorities said.

The air raid alert in Ukraine’s capital lasted 5.5 hours, with explosions reported in Kyiv and surrounding areas.

Drone attacks on Kyiv have increased in recent weeks, with Russia launching several groups of drones at night, approaching from various directions and altitudes, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.

“The enemy launched the first groups of drones before midnight, but more and more UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) were constantly added throughout the night,” authorities reported on Oct. 3.

“Nevertheless, none of the Russian drones reached their target.”

Debris from downed drones fell in Kyiv’s Desnianskyi district. No damage or injuries were reported.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 105 Shahed-type drones across Ukraine overnight. Seventy-eight were shot down across 15 oblasts, while 23 were lost to electronic warfare, and one flew toward Belarus, the statement said.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Long-Range Capabilities Must Finally Be Provided in the Way Necessary to End This War – Address by the President

3 October 2024 – 19:29

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, the new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, paid his first visit to Kyiv, and this is a significant visit to Ukraine he made immediately after assuming the powers of the Alliance’s Secretary General. And the key now is to actually back up this priority with decisions. It’s clear how important it is to fully implement every agreement we’ve made with our partners on defense support. Timeliness in support means resilience on the frontline. The frontline must be strengthened, and long-range capabilities must finally be provided in the way necessary to end this war. Everyone in the Alliance understands the needs.

As we head into winter, Ukraine’s air defense is no less important, along with real progress in the joint interception of Russian missiles and drones. We see that one of the main reasons for the security deficit in the skies of Ukraine, and in particular near the borders of NATO, our neighbors, is the lack of decisions on joint operations and joint defense. What works in the skies of the Middle East and helps Israel’s defense can work just as well in the skies of our part of Europe – in Ukraine – helping to save lives. There are specific technical solutions and fully effective tactics for this. Today, we discussed these matters with Mark Rutte – we will continue convincing all partners of what needs to be implemented for effective air defense.

Also, the invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and the progress toward membership is a constant topic on the table in our discussions with partners. Today, Mark and I talked about the details of this. It is equally necessary for all of us in Europe – Ukraine in the Alliance – not just for the sake of greater collective strength, and not just because it’s fair and deserved for Ukrainians, but also because only with Ukraine’s full integration and our clear place in the Euro-Atlantic space can we effectively eliminate Russia’s old, criminal temptation to disrupt the European way of life. Geopolitical certainty for Ukraine and for the whole of Europe is of the utmost value. This is the solid foundation of peace – when there is no insufficiently secure place in Europe’s security architecture.

There was a report today from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Frontline – Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Our response to Russia’s attacks on border communities. As well as the operation in the Kursk region – our ongoing active measures. I am grateful to all our warriors – every combat brigade – who are really effective on the battlefield now, in the most intense sectors. These weeks, the 35th separate marine brigade, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, the 102nd separate territorial defense brigade, the 118th separate mechanized brigade and the 425th separate assault battalion especially deserve our gratitude. Thank you all, warriors!

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of NATO, made his first official visit today. To Ukraine.

Important visit to #Kyiv to meet my friend, President @ZelenskyyUa. We discussed the areas where #Ukraine needs further support. As the new #NATO Secretary General, it is my priority to take this support forward to ensure that Ukraine prevails. pic.twitter.com/jROe82yF8c

— Mark Rutte (@SecGenNATO) October 3, 2024

Mark Rutte’s first visit as NATO Secretary General @SecGenNATO is to Ukraine, and this is truly significant. It immediately and clearly outlines the priorities, highlighting where the shared values of the entire Euro-Atlantic region are being defended right now. It also… pic.twitter.com/cknjtn7SsY

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 3, 2024

Mark Rutte’s first visit as NATO Secretary General @SecGenNATO is to Ukraine, and this is truly significant. It immediately and clearly outlines the priorities, highlighting where the shared values of the entire Euro-Atlantic region are being defended right now. It also emphasizes that we in Ukraine can count on Mark’s continued personal leadership.

Our key objective, of course, remains Ukraine’s full membership in the Alliance. Today, we also discussed Ukraine’s Victory Plan, the situation on the battlefield, the current needs of our troops, as well as Ukraine’s air defense needs and additional cooperation with our neighbors.

As winter approaches, it is crucial to implement all the agreements regarding air defense, especially those discussed at the NATO summit in Washington.

He and President Zelenskyy held a joint press conference.

Ukraine needs to strengthen its positions on the frontline so that we can increase pressure on Russia for the sake of fair, real diplomacy. This is why we need a sufficient quantity and quality of long-range weapons, the provision of which, in my opinion, is being delayed by our… pic.twitter.com/73LV1yQLXE

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 3, 2024

Ukraine needs to strengthen its positions on the frontline so that we can increase pressure on Russia for the sake of fair, real diplomacy. This is why we need a sufficient quantity and quality of long-range weapons, the provision of which, in my opinion, is being delayed by our partners.

Today, with Mark Rutte @SecGenNATO, we also discussed Ukraine’s air defense needs and additional cooperation with our neighbors. We see, particularly in the Middle East, how it is possible to protect people’s lives through the unity of allies. Jointly intercepting Iranian missiles is no different from jointly intercepting Russian missiles, and especially “Shaheds,” which link the Russian and Iranian regimes.

What we need in our region is more determination from our partners to put an end to Russian terror.

Here’s the full video.

Permission for Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with long-range weapons will be discussed at the “Ramstein” meeting on October 12, – Mark Rutte. pic.twitter.com/uyfQTdBuQw

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) October 3, 2024

I’m sure it will.

Romania:

The Patriot system promised by Romania arrived in Ukraine https://t.co/kwaj9gHE3l

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 3, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

Romania will donate Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. Official website of the president of Romania:

«Considering the significant deterioration of the security situation in Ukraine, as a result of Russia’s constant and massive attacks on civilians and civil infrastructure, especially on the energy sector, as well as the regional consequences of this situation, including on Romania’s security, in close coordination with the Allies, Council members decided to donate a PATRIOT system to Ukraine.»

https://presidency.ro/ro/media/sedinta-consiliului-suprem-de-aparare-a-tarii1718883520

Russia committed another war crime today by executing another Ukrainian POW.

russians have once again executed a Ukrainian prisoner of war on camera.

I wish everyone advocating for ‘peace deals’ would reflect on how can you make peace with those who come to murder you, your family, everyone you love, and destroy your very way of life?

I wish the UN and…

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 3, 2024

russians have once again executed a Ukrainian prisoner of war on camera.

I wish everyone advocating for ‘peace deals’ would reflect on how can you make peace with those who come to murder you, your family, everyone you love, and destroy your very way of life?

I wish the UN and the Red Cross would stop being passive, uninvolved, and indifferent, as they hang out on Carphatian resorts.

I wish something would change.

How many more of us need to die on camera for the world to finally understand what we are up against and the consequences of delaying crucial support and decisions?

I’ve watched the video. You do not need to watch it, you do not need to see the screen shots from it. Just note what Russia has done.

Vovchansk:

This was Vovchansk city.
It does not exist anymore because Ukraine couldn’t strike back. pic.twitter.com/UhZDEt17IB

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 3, 2024

Kharkiv:

When russian aircraft bombed Kharkiv last night, I couldn’t reach my parents. The fear was paralyzing. Minutes felt endless. Then my dad answered – they were okay. I cried with relief, rage, and exhaustion. The wounds left by russia’s war will never fully heal. Something inside…

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) October 3, 2024

When russian aircraft bombed Kharkiv last night, I couldn’t reach my parents. The fear was paralyzing. Minutes felt endless. Then my dad answered – they were okay. I cried with relief, rage, and exhaustion. The wounds left by russia’s war will never fully heal. Something inside me is broken beyond repair.

Oleksandr rescued his cat from his home, completely destroyed by a Russian glide bomb last night. Residents only had a few minutes after the air raid warning before the bomb hit. For Kharkiv, these attacks have become a brutal daily reality pic.twitter.com/PBLnotCcMu

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 3, 2024

Vuhledar:

Good article by @StankoNastya on the reasons behind the Vuhledar fall. Those who follow me know these are the same systemic issues I’ve written about repeatedly. It bothers me how these problems are frequently overlooked and the focus shifted elsewherehttps://t.co/y4LU7ZxenF

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 3, 2024

SildstvoInfo has the details:

After two years of defence of Vuhledar, the Ukrainian military withdrew from the city. Today, the Khortytsia operational and strategic grouping of troops officially announced this: ‘Having suffered numerous losses as a result of prolonged fighting, the enemy did not give up trying to capture Vuhledar. In an attempt to take control of the town at any cost, they managed to send reserves to conduct flanking attacks that exhausted the defences of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As a result of the enemy’s actions, the city was threatened with encirclement. The Higher Command gave permission for a manoeuvre to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to save personnel and military equipment, and to take up a position for further actions.’

Slidstvo.Info spoke to one of the military officers at the headquarters of one of the battalions of the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has been defending this area and Vuhledar in particular since August 2022 without rotation. The soldier’s name has been changed for security reasons.

‘Before the brigade was redeployed to the Donetsk region, we had a fully operational unit and staff. But over two years of fighting without rotations and rest, we turned into an incapacitated unit, the brigade was wiped out,’ says Viktor, who holds a position at the headquarters of one of the battalions of the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

‘In the two years since we have been in the Vuhledar area, only once in my battalion have we been able to fully staff only one company — out of the entire battalion. Every three months, we received 25 new recruits, mostly old men aged 50+. They were poorly trained in the ‘training schools’, they did not know tactical medicine at all, nor what a grenade launcher was. There was zero fire support, so we managed to teach them what we could in a week on the spot, but understood that it was very little time.’

When asked why they failed to hold the town, which was situated on a hill and had a very favourable position for defence, and which his brigade and other units had held for two years, Viktor explains: ‘And what is a dominant height now, if the enemy’s reconnaissance drones are hovering over you around the clock? And they have an advantage in artillery, we had practically no artillery, it’s not like it was in the winter of 23rd, when we defeated the 155th Brigade (in February 2023, the 72nd Brigade destroyed several columns of Russian tanks and effectively rendered the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Federation incapable of fighting, which attacked Pavlivka, near Vuhledar — ed.) Then we had a lot of artillery, shoot if you want, but now we don’t, they have parity in the air due to the larger number of FPV drones. The Russians also started remotely mining all the access roads to the front line. Yes, their infantry are bums, but they have an advantage in means and numbers. We simply had no one and nothing to fight with.’

Viktor tells us how many men he has left in the battalion. Out of 350 people, there are up to 30 people left for one platoon. This includes mechanics, drivers, and recently infantrymen who held the front line — a 2-3 kilometre strip — and there were 14-18 people in the unit.

‘We have repeatedly said that the unit is incapable of fighting, we were sometimes given some manpower, but they were also quickly worn out due to inadequately cut tasks, such as “restoring lost positions”, and we could no longer hold the ones we were standing on at the time,’ the soldier says.

When asked whether the Russian offensive on Vuhledar could have been deterred in recent months, Viktor replies that yes, ‘if we had been replaced at least 2-3 months ago, but it depends on who and what quality of infantry would have been there, whether they would not have been afraid to hold the front line.’

Slidstvo.Info asked the press service of the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a comment on the circumstances of their withdrawal from Vuhledar, but they have not yet officially commented on this information.

Before the full-scale invasion, about 15,000 people lived in Vuhledar. The town was destroyed in 2023. A few days before the capture of Vuhledar, there were just over 100 residents left. According to the Donetsk Military-Civilian Administration, all children were evacuated.

The Kursk cross border offensive.

Strikes reported in Kurchatov, Kursk region of Russia. pic.twitter.com/qrlev48ayg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 3, 2024

Interception of 16 Russian reconnaissance drones and 1 Lancet loitering munition on the Kursk front. https://t.co/PUhB3QOlOh pic.twitter.com/lsiaRPhh2B

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 3, 2024

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian drones targeted Russian military airfield in Borisoglebsk, Voronezh region tonight. The results of the attack are yet unknown pic.twitter.com/HwSqozO1PB

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 3, 2024

Drone attacks, like strike on Borisoglebsk airfield are Ukraine’s most effective response right now. These facilities—where Russia stores KABs, fighter jets, and aviation fuel—are used to bomb Ukrainian cities. Imagine the impact if Ukraine had permission for heavier weapons pic.twitter.com/KYOxl4uUMN

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 3, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

Я би був сирником або морозивом, напевно! 🤭🧀🍮 Ідея: @mavka.kytsia

♬ Hatachi no koi – ♡

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I would have been a cheesecake or ice cream, probably!🤭🧀🍮 Ідея: @mavka.kytsia

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 953: Would You Look at That, Apparently You Can Bomb a Russian Airbase Deep Behind the Lines, Who Knew?Post + Comments (15)

War for Ukraine Day 952: Kharkiv Under Attack Once More

by Adam L Silverman| October 2, 20247:37 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping items. First, Rosie is doing well, but has her usual third day out from treatment slow down. This is not unsual. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, tonight is Erev Rosh HaShana. So, Happy Jew Year to everyone who celebrates! It’s 5785, which I think is the Year of the Bialy. Anyhow, I’m going to just run the basics tonight so I can shut down for the evening.

Russia has unleashed its glide bombs on Kharkiv again within the past hour (it is 6:40 PM EDT/1:40 AM local time in Ukraine).

Kharkiv right now.

There is a fire after the russian glide bomb attack on our city.

First responders are working. As of now, there are 9 injured people. pic.twitter.com/zDQje1TzsY

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv. Currently, nine civilians have been reported injured, including a 3-year-old girl. Russia again used an aerial bomb against a residential building.

📷place_kharkiv pic.twitter.com/XxnCNEhPR9

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv, Saltivka—an ordinary residential building hit by a Russian bomb.

The rescue operation is ongoing, as they are searching for anyone who may have been affected. So far, 8 people are known to be injured. Everyone will be provided the necessary assistance.

For such Russian… pic.twitter.com/dnuyAHszCD

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv, Saltivka—an ordinary residential building hit by a Russian bomb.

The rescue operation is ongoing, as they are searching for anyone who may have been affected. So far, 8 people are known to be injured. Everyone will be provided the necessary assistance.

For such Russian strikes to stop, Ukraine must receive the required and, above all, sufficient support from the world, from partners. Every leader knows exactly what needs to be done. It is important to be decisive.

War for Ukraine Day 951: Russia Commits More War Crimes in Kherson & Pokrovsk

by Adam L Silverman| October 1, 20249:25 pm| 6 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I know everyone wants to watch the debate or, at least, read other people liveblog or livetweet or liveskeet or whatever the debate, so I’m just going to run the basics tonight.

Russia attacked Kherson’s central market today.

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Imagine your local market – where you buy fruit, chat with neighbors. In Kherson, that same kind of market is now littered with the bodies of innocent civilians, killed by russian shelling. These people were simply trying to live a normal life amid unimaginable circumstances. pic.twitter.com/6yUQ48O6qJ

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) October 1, 2024

A Russian strike on Kherson, right in the city center. As of now, six deaths have been confirmed. My deepest condolences to all the families and friends affected. Six people have been injured and are receiving the necessary assistance.

Daily Russian terror, daily attempts to… pic.twitter.com/NumZfeMrmy

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 1, 2024

A Russian strike on Kherson, right in the city center. As of now, six deaths have been confirmed. My deepest condolences to all the families and friends affected. Six people have been injured and are receiving the necessary assistance.

Daily Russian terror, daily attempts to destroy life—this can and can be stopped. We must achieve lasting peace for our state and our people. For this to happen, Ukrainian strength and the resolve of our partners must outweigh Putin’s desire to wreck terror.

Pressure on the aggressor and support for Ukraine must be constant and comprehensive. I thank all our partners who help us defend lives. I thank everyone who protects Ukraine.

The also massacred 16 Ukrainian POWs on the Pokrovsk front:

Russians at war systematically violate international humanitarian law concerning prisoners of war. In a recent case, Russian forces allegedly committed a heinous crime by shooting dead 16 Ukrainian POWs near #Pokrovsk as they were surrendering – the largest such report. pic.twitter.com/25CJYHGZLo

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) October 1, 2024

The Russian military executed 16 (!!!) surrendered Ukrainian soldiers at sight.

This is the worst incident of POW execution known so far in this war.

It happened near Pokrovsk.

Look at what the Russians did – they lined the surrendered Ukrainians up, shot them all down, and… pic.twitter.com/U3ub7PKx3x

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 1, 2024

The Russian military executed 16 (!!!) surrendered Ukrainian soldiers at sight.

This is the worst incident of POW execution known so far in this war.

It happened near Pokrovsk.

Look at what the Russians did – they lined the surrendered Ukrainians up, shot them all down, and then finished off those dying on the ground.

When some sneaky character says ‘Ukrainians just need to surrender,” — this is the answer regarding what will happen if Ukraine “just surrenders” to Russia, which is absolutely out of its damn mind and sick with absolute sadism.

And they’ve apparently poisoned an entire Ukrainian river:

Putin’s ecocide in #Ukraine. “Everything is dead. Not a single organism survived. This is unprecedented. It’s Europe’s first completely dead river.” Russia is suspected of deliberately leaking chemical waste into the Desna river, with deadly consequences for wildlife.… pic.twitter.com/yjwVkD1I8y

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) October 1, 2024

Putin’s ecocide in #Ukraine. “Everything is dead. Not a single organism survived. This is unprecedented. It’s Europe’s first completely dead river.” Russia is suspected of deliberately leaking chemical waste into the Desna river, with deadly consequences for wildlife. https://theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/ukraine-seim-river-poisoning-chernihiv-ecocide-

War for Ukraine Day 950: Russia’s Butcher’s Bill for September 2024

by Adam L Silverman| September 30, 20249:01 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie had her penultimate treatment today. She has two weeks off and then the final one. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Here’s Russia’s butcher’s bill for September:

September in Ukraine: Russia launched over 1,300 Shahed drones—the most since the war started—and 900 glide bombs in just one week. These daily attacks nearly disappeared from headlines. But the locations of drone factories and air fields are known and are legitimate targets pic.twitter.com/J73yEE4TZu

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 30, 2024

Here’s the bill just for the past week:

russians launched nearly 900 aerial bombs, over 300 drones, and 40 missiles on Ukraine in a week. They must be deprived of this capability.

— Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) September 30, 2024

And just for last night:

Air raid alert in Kyiv due to launch of ballistic missile from Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea. A Shahed is also buzzing around near Kyiv. Overnight, Ukraine shot down 67 out of 73 attacking Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drones. pic.twitter.com/7YBZix48UG

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 30, 2024

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Everything That Can Be Done This Fall, Everything We Can Achieve, We Must Achieve – President’s Address

30 September 2024 – 19:41

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just concluded a meeting following the visit to the United States. The military, the Government, the Office. Our teams – both Ukrainian and American – are already working on everything we discussed in New York and Washington, and we are already preparing for the upcoming “Ramstein” meeting. This will be a special “Ramstein,” and our partners will receive all the details and arguments from our side on how to ensure results in the coming months both at the front and in diplomatic work. The power of weapons and the power of diplomacy are always effective when working together, and this is exactly our plan – this is exactly how we should implement the Victory Plan. We are also expecting concrete actions from our partners to strengthen our strategy. This applies to all our partners – our strength lies in the fact that the free world is defending itself.

We are also preparing to sign another security agreement for Ukraine – the twenty-seventh one already.

I held a meeting of the Staff today. Several key issues were discussed. The first is manning the brigades. The second is weapons and equipment for our warriors – procurement and supply. Additionally, I had a separate discussion with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov regarding the fulfillment of contracts and the functioning of institutions within the Ministry of Defense. All real reform measures must be fully implemented.

Today, we also had a detailed and very long conversation with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych. More than two and a half hours. Reports on each of our frontline areas, our further capabilities, and our specific tasks. The situation is very challenging. The most important thing is to put pressure on Russia using all available means and tools to achieve our goal of a real and just peace for Ukraine and all our people as soon as possible. Everything that can be done this fall, everything we can achieve, we must achieve. And it depends on everyone in the Ukrainian team. Now we have to work as hard as we can before “Ramstein.”

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! I thank everyone who is helping us!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost and the reason:

Instead of a thousand words.

The boy’s poster says:

“Daddy! Hear me! I’ll be your voice. I believe…Waiting. 57th brigade, 3rd year of captivity” pic.twitter.com/HKjc5sJBoI

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2024

“If I happen to have at least one downed Shahed drone on my account, I will consider my mission on this earth accomplished.”

The “Witches of Bucha” unit shares how they joined Ukrainian defense forces.

📹: Current Time pic.twitter.com/glKaonCVTO

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2024

Denmark:

🇺🇦 and 🇩🇰 signed a Letter of Intent regarding the implementation of financial support for our defense production

Denmark allocates 175 million euros, and another 400 million will be taken from surplus profits of immobilised russian assets. This is a direct contribution to the… https://t.co/sgpeJGVwQd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2024

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

🇺🇦 and 🇩🇰 signed a Letter of Intent regarding the implementation of financial support for our defense production

Denmark allocates 175 million euros, and another 400 million will be taken from surplus profits of immobilised russian assets. This is a direct contribution to the development of Ukrainian attack UAVs, missiles and anti-tank systems.

Tusind tak 🇩🇰

And Defense Minister Umerov’s:

Ukraine and Denmark signed a Letter of Intent regarding the implementation of financial support for defense production in 🇺🇦.

This will help attract almost 600 million euros of investment in our defense industry.

This is a direct contribution to the development of Ukrainian attack UAVs, missiles and anti-tank systems. Denmark allocates 175 million euros, and another 400 million will be taken from surplus profits of immobilised russian assets.

We are sincerely grateful to our partners for their unwavering support! 🇺🇦🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin @troelslundp

Alaska:

“On Sept 23, 2024, NORAD aircraft flew a safe and disciplined intercept of Russian Military Aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ. The conduct of one Russian Su-35 was unsafe, unprofessional, and endangered all – not what you’d see in a professional air force.” – Gen. Gregory Guillot pic.twitter.com/gXZj3Ndkag

— North American Aerospace Defense Command (@NORADCommand) September 30, 2024

I believe the Russian word for this is nekulturny.

More on the recent revision regarding Russia’s nuclear weapons “doctrine”:

A decision to use nuclear weapons would be driven more by political calculation than doctrinal documents. If the Kremlin believes using such weapons enhances its power, it may do so – regardless of official texts.@KyivIndependent @SCEEUS_UI https://t.co/AAJKFNZNfa

— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) September 30, 2024

Anders Umland in The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a seemingly significant modification of Russia’s military doctrine in a statement on Sept. 25. He revealed that the new doctrine would propose considering aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, “with the participation or support of a nuclear state,” as a “joint attack” on Russia. Putin’s message to the West is clear: If you help Ukraine militarily, we may also target you.

The Russian president further explained that the new doctrine will “clearly set the conditions for Russia to transition to using nuclear weapons.”

“We will consider such a possibility (of nuclear retaliation) when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border,” Putin warned darkly, citing “strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, (and) hypersonic and other flying vehicles.” He clarified that the changes apply to both Russia and Belarus.

What makes this threat different from Putin’s earlier ones is not its boldness but that it concerns a forthcoming formal document. Despite this, Putin’s announcements do not fundamentally alter Russia’s position. The pre-announced changes to Russia’s military doctrine are as much a psychological operation by the Kremlin as previous nuclear intimidations.

As with past threats, Moscow aims to scare away foreign supporters of Ukraine from continuing and expanding their aid. The proposed change in military doctrine is another attempt to curtail Western assistance to Ukraine.

However, it’s important to put Putin’s statement in context. Russian official texts – whether laws, doctrines, or treaties – carry little weight in a country where there is no rule of law and state behavior is marked by arbitrariness. As in domestic affairs, Kremlin decisions are based on political preferences, with legal acts being adapted, interpreted or amended as needed.

Putin’s latest threats are linked to ongoing strategic debates in the West. One critical discussion is whether to provide Ukraine with more advanced weaponry, including Germany’s highly effective, yet now notorious, Taurus cruise missiles. Another debate concerns allowing Ukraine to use Western missiles inside Russia. The latter, in particular, seems to be a source of concern for the Kremlin.

These issues must be viewed in their broader historical context. For more than two years, Ukraine has attacked Russian military targets in Crimea, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts – territories Russia considers its own following the illegal annexations of 2014 and 2022, as well as respective changes in the Russian Constitution.

More recently, Ukraine has also targeted military and industrial sites within Russia’s undisputed territory, including a drone attack on the Kremlin. Some of these strikes, particularly those on large ammunition depots deep inside Russia, have been notably successful.

Russia’s current military doctrine already allows the use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks. Since 2010, the doctrine has permitted nuclear retaliation if the state’s existence is threatened by conventional weapons. This provision was reaffirmed in the 2020 “Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence.” Given Ukraine’s repeated attacks on Russian territory, Moscow could have invoked this doctrine long ago as justification for a nuclear response.

Since 2014, Putin and his associates have repeatedly signaled their willingness to use nuclear weapons in response to Western-supported Ukrainian resistance against Russia’s territorial expansion using conventional weaponry.

The phrase “the very existence of the Russian state” could be interpreted to encompass the inviolability of its borders and the security of its airspace – including the annexed Ukrainian territories that Moscow now views as part of Russia. Ukraine’s strikes and incursions into legitimate and illegally held Russian territory since 2022 could also have been viewed by the Kremlin as justification for retaliating with weapons of mass destruction.

However, no nuclear weapons have been used. This is because Russian threats – whether verbal or written – are not previews of actual actions. They are part of a psychological warfare campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s defense. Putin’s recent announcement of changes to Russia’s military doctrine is just another move in this high-stakes PR game.

A decision to use nuclear weapons would be driven more by political calculations than by doctrinal documents. If the Kremlin believes that using such weapons would enhance its power, it may act – regardless of the specific wording in official texts. Political utility, rather than legal obligation, will guide Moscow’s choices.

Imagine that, it was political warfare all along!

Vochansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Today Russian forces launched a major attack on the Kharkiv front, in the town of Vovchansk:

From the Russian side 17 MT-LB, 3 tanks and more than 100 infantry were involved in the assault operations in the Vovchan direction.

16 MT-LBs were destroyed, 1 tank was knocked out,… pic.twitter.com/XOdOUZm3FT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 30, 2024

Today Russian forces launched a major attack on the Kharkiv front, in the town of Vovchansk:

From the Russian side 17 MT-LB, 3 tanks and more than 100 infantry were involved in the assault operations in the Vovchan direction.

16 MT-LBs were destroyed, 1 tank was knocked out, which was able to retreat together with survivors.

As said by Ukrainian soldier: “The boys confidently met Russian armor in the Vovchansk front, as I said, the units were ready for this, so they worked confidently.

In addition to the destroyed iron, there are a lot of corpses lying around them, since almost all the boxes were with infantry.”

https://t.me/BaluHub777/14990

Kherson Oblast:

I always wondered how my great-grandparents could be murdered by the Nazis in #BabinYar.

Where was the world?

Couldn’t the civilized people stop the massacre?

Today, on the 83rd anniversary of their death, I see how genocides happen.

I am watching it now–in #Kherson. https://t.co/V91ltx7d2p

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) September 29, 2024

The Pokrovsk front:

Javelin in action 🔥
🇺🇦 warrior destroyed a russian T-72B3 tank using 🇺🇸-made anti-tank system.

📹: Kara-Dag Brigade pic.twitter.com/fIVUhR5vAG

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

One takeaway from this war is the limited role of special forces in environments with heavy drone ISR presence. On both sides, special forces are often doing drone missions that regular mobilized soldiers can do. It’s a major shift from the GWOT-era dominated SpecialOps discourse https://t.co/DrGQNcevht

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 30, 2024

Moscow:

Russia’s military expenditures will increase to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145.3 billion) or 6.3% of GDP in 2025.

The Russian government has submitted a draft budget for 2025 and the next two years to the State Duma.

This amount is almost double the military spending in 2024 and is… pic.twitter.com/PqZKcBoRC8

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2024

Russia’s military expenditures will increase to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145.3 billion) or 6.3% of GDP in 2025.

The Russian government has submitted a draft budget for 2025 and the next two years to the State Duma.

This amount is almost double the military spending in 2024 and is the highest figure in the country’s post-Soviet history.

Earlier, Bloomberg predicted that in 2025, the Russian authorities intend to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142.1 billion), but the published figures turned out to be even higher. At the same time, spending on national security coincides with the published data of the publication – almost 3.46 trillion rubles ($37.3 billion).

◾️It also follows from the draft budget that the Russian authorities plan to spend almost 1.58 trillion rubles ($17 billion) on education in 2025, 1.86 trillion rubles ($20 billion) on health care, and 6.4 trillion rubles ($68.9 billion) on social policy.

◾️In 2025, Russian housing and utilities tariffs will increase by 11.9%. This is twice as much as it was planned last year.

◾️Gas will rise in price by 10.3% and electricity by 12.6%. A year ago, tariffs in 2025 were planned to be indexed by 5.7%. In 2024, tariffs rose by 9.8%.

◾️The 2025 Russian budget allocates 49 million rubles ($527.6 thousand) for the Readovka Telegram channel. Vladimir Solovyev’s Solovyev Live TV channel will also receive state funding. From 2025 to 2027, 4.5 billion rubles ($48.5 million) will be allocated to it.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material.

Good morning from Ukraine! Let’s make it a productive week.

📷: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/5whC62qbrx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2024

The two horses were in the open, 2 kilometers from enemy positions in Donetsk region. One of the horses was wounded.

Ukrainian Defenders Oleksandr and Stepan found them on their way back from a combat mission and immediately started looking for help.

Animal Rescue Kharkiv… pic.twitter.com/w3nTXb4eg8

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2024

The two horses were in the open, 2 kilometers from enemy positions in Donetsk region. One of the horses was wounded.

Ukrainian Defenders Oleksandr and Stepan found them on their way back from a combat mission and immediately started looking for help.

Animal Rescue Kharkiv rescuers together with the military went to the site to rescue the horses. Since the terrain was open, they had to take the horses 2 kilometers on foot to the first place where they could park a car with a trailer.

It took about 2 hours to get the horses into the trailer.

Thanks to Warriors Oleksandr and Stepan and their teamwork with the rescuers, the injured mare and her friend were saved. They turned out to be very sociable.

📹: ARK

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Гігабайти цінного контенту 🌝📸 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – Vtshop – Vtshop

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Gigabytes of valuable content 🌝📸 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 950: Russia’s Butcher’s Bill for September 2024Post + Comments (9)

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Democrats are back in array!

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Usually wrong but never in doubt

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

Cole is on a roll !

The lights are all blinking red.

The words do not have to be perfect.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

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