Everyone’s talking about Romney’s 10K bet last night, but I don’t think it hurts him much with Republican voters. It just shows that he knows how to make it rain. Where’s your spare 10 G’s, bitch?
Romney had a weak debate performance because he didn’t come across as a straight-talking tough guy during the rest of the debate. Here’s a good analysis from a debate coach, which is fairly similar to Steve M’s take:
The first error was when George Stephanopoulos directed a possible bonanza question to Romney. He asked Romney if he was more conservative (his potential weakness) and more electable (his potential strength) than Gingrich. Perfect softball. In one answer, Romney could erase doubts about his conservatism for the base of Republican voters and he could talk about how he is the only candidate who can beat Obama (as evidenced in polls).
Romney’s answer? Moon mining. Seriously. After starting with some generic answer about the direction of the country, his first specific example was that he was different from Gingrich on moon colonies. “We could start with his idea to have a lunar colony that would mine minerals from the moon. I’m not in favor of spending that kind of money to do that.”
[….]Gingrich was far from passive, stepping up repeatedly to attack. A favorite line: “I am a Reaganite, I’m proud to be a Reaganite. I will tell the truth even at the risk of causing some confusion, sometimes with the timid.” That’s what the Republicans are looking for. They want tough conservative talk and someone who can take the fight to Obama. Gingrich behaved as though he was ready and willing to do so. And Romney missed his chance in this debate.
Keep it simple: Reagan good, Jesus good, free market good, Obama bad, soshulism bad, terists bad. And say it like you mean it. No one gives a fuck about moon minerals anymore than they gave a fuck about bear DNA in 2008. Romney thinks he can win by being the knowledgeable, serious one, who knows that the others’ ideas are all crazy (and it’s true that they are crazy) but that won’t work. It sure hasn’t worked so far.
Before Romney was behind Gingrich in the polls, he was behind Donald Trump, then Rick Perry, then Hermain Cain. Then one day they had to crash, but seriousness wouldn’t have helped that batch. Trump crashed when Obama smacked him down with the birth certificate, not because voters thought Trump was crazy for believing it, but because Obama made Trump look weak and unmanly. Perry crashed, not when he talked about lynching Ben Bernanke, but when he started acting like a candy ass pain-killer addict. Herman Cain’s I-don’t-know-Korea-but-I-know-crazy act was playing just fine before the librul media paid those she-devils to accuse him of harassment.
Romney thinks he’s competing on Jeopardy when he’s really on Quien Es Mas Macho.
wrb
His back ain’t got no bone.
Egg Berry
pineapple o knife?
The Dangerman
I think where Romney done fucked himself is he needs a reasonable showing in Iowa; he won’t win, but I could see him losing to not only Gingrich and Paul, but also to Perry and Bachmann (native daughter). The 10K may not be a disaster, but it isn’t a positive and Romney can’t play defense any longer.
Vixen Strangely
Actually, I think the $10K wager was Romney trying to look like one of the guys. It’s his awkward version of a gentleman’s wager (How do you know you’re a gentleman? You’ve got $10K to put on a wager–about what it says in your book.) But there you go–Romney’s problem isn’t so much the political litmus test, but the political Turing test. (Romney’s political bio as film: Mannequin 4.)
wrb
I never seen such losers darlin’
even though I try…
Corner Stone
Romney was never going to win Iowa, nor really make a strong showing.
That debate was just more noise for people who watch a Saturday night debate (!?), and politico/pundits.
Romney is still the R nominee.
Corner Stone
And no, Romney won’t win or do very well in South Carolina.
He’s got all the money and infrastructure to make it to Super Tuesday.
Geoduck
Cain really flamed out because of the consensual affair With A White Woman, not the harassment.
jeffreyw
Thread needs moar puppy. I’ll bet it’s not less filling, either.
SteveM
You’ve nailed it.
The Dangerman
@Corner Stone:
It wasn’t that long ago that Romney was barely in Iowa; something made him want to make at least a “reasonable” showing (however one wants to define reasonable). He’s going to wounded going into New Hampshire … it’s just a matter of how wounded (insert Black Night reference here).
Frankensteinbeck
Yes. It’s about looking strong. Perry died not by saying moronic things, but by stumbling around and having no answer. Bachmann and Santorum are national jokes, and everyone knows it, so they were dead in the water. Ron Paul isn’t a Republican, he’s a figurehead to attract Libertarians, and everyone knows THAT.
Newt is angry and abrasive and loudmouthed. To the bully mentality, that looks strong. Romney just hemmed and hawed on a national stage.
Newt may just carry this. Rove and the other power brokers don’t like it, but Rove and the other power brokers have been humiliated repeatedly by the lunatic base lately.
EDIT @Geoduck:
He reacted to the harassment charges by calling them attacks and being rude and dismissive. He reacted to the consensual relationship charge with weak excuses. Plus, harassment charges are WAY more acceptable to the base. They want the biggest bully in the room.
lamh35
I think the $10,000 will do Romney no good with some GOP voters especially when it seems that the primary voters are looking for any reason to vote “not Mittens”.
Besides, if Oprah Winfrey (billions), Warren Buffett (billions), hell even Jay Z (millions) bet anyone a million dollars on anything, then hell yeah people would believe that they could pay said million.
It’s the $10,000 figure that screams “eliticism” in Romney’s case. We’ve all played “the betting game” to shut people up, but it’s usally IDK, something like $1, $5 or even 1 million dollars (usually with a pinky to the corner of your mouth ala Dr. Evil on Austin Powers). But $10,000 just seem like a more arbitrary number to most people and it was used by Mittens so fluidly that it seems like it’s a monetary amount that slips easily off his tongue regularly?
lamh35
posted this in last thread, but it fits here i think, so re-posted:
I actually surprised that more focus isn’t paid to Gingrich’s “Teddy Kennedy” line to Romney early in the debate. I’m no fan of Gingrich at all, but when I heard that line and the nasty delivery even I thought “Damn” straight to Romney’s gut. I actually think that was the what put Romney off his stride a bit. I know Mittens came up with some NFL line, but seems to me the damage was done.
Gingrich is just a nasty dude, and Romney is just not equipped to go as nasty on Newt as Newt was obviously willing to go on Mittens.
If any of the other candidates are running for anything but VP, then actually hitting Romney hard and quick seems to discombobulate the Rom-bot circuitry enough for him to be open for slips like the $10k line.
Definitely an unforced error on Romney’s part.
The Dangerman
@lamh35:
I think that put Romney on Tilt; the audience reaction to that vicious hook Newt threw was fascinating and Mitt lost his legs.
policomic
@Frankensteinbeck:
This.
And also this:
LittlePig
@Frankensteinbeck:
The Republican base want the most spiteful asshole in the room, and nobody out-spites and out-assholes Newton.
g
I’m trying to remember at what point and exactly why Romney bailed in 2008 – I know I could research that myself, but does anyone off-hand remember, so I can maintain my lazy Sunday?
jwb
@Corner Stone: I say it depends on whether Rove has any goods on Gingrich and, more importantly, whether Gingrich can manage not to shoot himself in the foot over the next three months. Rove will have to play whatever is in his hand before the Iowa caucuses and it’s not clear to me that Rove could have anything short of evidence of an indictable offense that would be any worse than things Gingrich has already admitted to. Gingrich himself remains Gingrich’s biggest threat and a betting man would certainly put $10K on Gingrich finding some way to do something spectacularly idiotic before Super Tuesday. Nevertheless, ever since the Cain implosion, Gingrich has gone from implausible to conceivable, even if Romney remains the only logical choice. Such are the difficulties the GOP is confronting because it chose to unleash its id.
losgatosca
Jeopardy vs Quien Es Mas Macho ?
Romney has a political IQ equivalent to Perry’s functional IQ. He cleans up nicer than the rest of the bozos, but basically he’s a bozo just like they are.
If he wasn’t a bozo, he would have moved his family to Utah after the Olympics gone full crazy to become governor there and he would be the hands down nominee right now. But he thought he could have his cake (live in MA, become governor, get universal health care) and eat it too (be a conservative, wing nut candidate).
Doesn’t work. Ask Tom Daschle on constiuentcy, ideology, leadership cognitive dissonance.
Circles cannot be squared.
Montysano
I think the $10K thing will be very harmful to Romney. It shows what a shallow, out of touch asshole he is. If Newt is smart, it will be prominently featured in campaign ads: “At a time when millions of Murikans are suffering, Mitt Romney…” etc.
Anoniminous
@g:
Romney bailed after McCain – polling in the 60s, IIRC, nationally – cleaned his clock on Super Tuesday. By then it was apparent McCain was going to get the nomination.
Anoniminous
@g:
Romney bailed after McCain – polling in the 60s, IIRC, nationally – cleaned his clock on Super Tuesday. By then it was apparent McCain was going to get the nomination.
Corner Stone
@jwb: The id is lovin’ the rise of newt.
And they’ll have their say in Iowa and SC. Then that’s it.
Newt doesn’t have the money to sustain gotv, and Iowa isn’t really voting for Newt but they feel Mitt dissed them.
Once Iowa gets to righteously repay Mitt, none of them will give any money or time to Newt.
IMO, there’s $500M of ad buys out there waiting to be unleashed. And they won’t be in favor of Newt.
Anoniminous
@g:
Romney bailed after McCain – polling in the 60s, IIRC, nationally – cleaned his clock on Super Tuesday. By then it was apparent McCain was going to get the nomination.
Anoniminous
@g:
Romney bailed after McCain – polling in the 60s, IIRC, nationally – cleaned his clock on Super Tuesday. By then it was apparent McCain was going to get the nomination.
Donut
Totally disagree. This was bad, bad, bad optics, especially in Iowa.
I mean, Doug, even Jonah Fucking Goldberg pwned Romney on the Twit-machine last night (not linking, go look it up). That’s worse than bad, when the ‘Pantload can smack you down and make it sting.
Anoniminous
Uh … sorry about that.
Can some kind FP’er please delete the excess?
Corner Stone
@Donut: Jonah Goldberg hates Mitt. Nothing surprising about that twit.
Arclite
Moon mining? Why not! I mean, we’re making weekly trips to the moon already, we may as well set up a mining colony there. We could mine H3 for use in fusion reactors. And we could populate it with clones, so no one would have to die. Hmm, I’m having a bit of deja vu here…
Gin & Tonic
@Montysano:
I think it’s big today in the Twitterverse and the blogosphere, but in a week nobody will give a shit, and the Republican primary voters sure as hell won’t. Hell, they don’t care even today.
If an (at least) twice-adultering thrice-married Catholic of convenience, who was fined $300k and thrown out of the Speakership by his own damn party can be leading, that’s proof positive that the electorate’s attention span is just as short as Newt’s.
By Christmas remarks about Romney’s $10k bet will draw blank stares.
wrb
@Gin & Tonic:
Yea but I think the “… if you hadn’t lost to Teddy Kennedy…” is the sort of poison that lingers.
EconWatcher
Props on the Lou Reed! For my money, you can never have too many allusions to Lou.
Jebediah
I can’t remember ever being so interested in or amused by a gooper primary race. And I am getting a little more optimistic that Newt might get the nomination – I am so sick of people calling him an intellectual, an idea man etc. that I long to see him debate Obama and get his ass handed to him. In my mind I can already hear the loud wet schplutt of wingtard heads exploding across the country as their leading intellectual is made to look stupid and foolish.
WereBear (itouch)
that’s poetry that is
MikeJake
I don’t see what the big deal is. Haven’t you ever facetiously bet someone a preposterous amount of money on some minor issue (“Dude, I bet you a million dollars that I’m right.”)? It’s an attempt to show your opponent that you’re so confident that you’re right that you’re willing to bet an amount of money you couldn’t afford to wager.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@MikeJake: The big deal is that most know it’s a trivial sum to Romney, and the way he delivered the bet made that clear. It wasn’t a ludicrous number to wager for him, the way it would be to most regular people. It’s all about tone, and tone deafness.
Lumpy
Posts like this (original post by DougJ) are why I check this blog every single day. Spot on.
ornerycurmudgeon
“Keep it simple: Reagan good, Jesus good, free market good, Obama bad…”
No, Jesus is only a marker of power … the actual teachings of Jesus are hated by conservative religious types.
mellowjohn
@Arclite: i though we were digging up unobtainium from our moon mines.
rikyrah
@wrb:
His back ain’t got no bone.
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA AH AH AH
Donut
@Corner Stone:
I meant more that you are in serious shit when simpletons such as Goldberg can get your goat by referring to your butler (real or imagined), you have a problem.
You seem to think the GOP Villagers will overcome Newton, but I’m just not so sure they can control the base any longer. The base up and brought in a huge wave of Teatards last year. Newt represents the base better than anyone still standing. Romney is hated by the Teatards. I dunno, maybe you are right, I just don’t think money and organization can achieve results for Willard. Just not yet fully convinced.
Geeno
I’m just fairly convinced that a republican can’t win without a united party behind him, and I’m just not seeing that happening with Newt.
PaminBB
I think there is another possibility that is being over-looked – Newt can be bought. Look at his campaign non-organization, he never wanted to be president, but he had cried wolf too many times and had to put up a front. Somewhat by chance, he’s landed in the cat-bird seat, and he’s now trying to figure out how to cash in. He just needs to figure out when the price will be the best. It’s going to cost a lot, but he’ll go away.
Omnes Omnibus
@EconWatcher: Lou and James Brown.
Corner Stone
@Donut: By definition, any “base” is limited. Or else it would be “support”.
Newt’s going to hit the wall.
Donut
And Romney has no base, so there’s that. Don’t mean to be bitchy, but no base, no way to broaden his position. So he too is pretty fucking limited, no? Kinda nullifies your point a bit.
Romney had all the same cash and org built out in 2008, and he crashed out – hell, he didn’t even crash! Just faded and fizzled.
Karen
Romney thought it was a gentleman’s game when it was really a dick measuring contest. But that’s what the GOP is. Romney’s $10K bet reminds me of when Bush Sr. was at a supermarket so he could use the supermarket scanner to show he was in touch with the average American. The economy wasn’t as bad as now but it was pretty bad and all it did was show he was out of touch.
Now the question is: will Newt secure the GOP nomination or will there be a mystical magical pony…er I mean brokered convention?
No one of importance
@jeffreyw:
Adorable :)
Jebediah
@losgatosca:
But the circle can get the square.