Reports of the demise of the ‘road map’ to peace in the Middle East are premature:
In a historic vote cast under intense U.S. pressure, Israel’s government narrowly approved an internationally backed “road map” to peace Sunday and for the first time recognized the Palestinians’ right to statehood. But it left itself an escape hatch from unwelcome parts of the plan.
The Cabinet vote cleared the way for a possible three-way meeting – as early as next week – between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas and President Bush.
Andrew Lazarus
John, you’ve got the problem right in the story: “But it left itself an escape hatch from unwelcome parts of the plan.”
The unwelcome parts include, for example, stopping settlement expansion. The Sharon government argues that Palestinians must somehow stop terror (their task in Phase I) before the Israelis even informally implement a settlement freeze or any other obligation. Sharon’s acceptance is a (well-founded) bluff that the Palestinians will be unable to deliver even a pretense of anti-terrorist enforcement. (It would be more Arafat’s style to endorse the Road Map without reservations, which Abu Mazen did, and then permit his paramilitary forces to violate it.)
Where Bush falls in this is not clear: on the one hand pro-Sharon (and anti-Arab) is good for domestic political use, but not if it results in an escalation of violence, which is probably bad. On balance, I don’t see Bush arm-twisting Sharon very well, not like GHWB and Yitzhak Shamir.