Continuing from below, more refutation of the Pethokoukis “Goldberg Theorem”:
Our view of the next 12 months no longer appears to be unconventional, at least not on the surface. Now everybody thinks the economy is in a recession, and many think it will be long and severe. People make comparisons to the 1930s all the time. Everyone thinks consumer spending is in big trouble. Lots of people think the Fed will ease. Financial instability, a theme we harped on ad nauseam during the past three years, is now the primary economic topic of discussion.
Still, conventional wisdom leaves out much that is important about the economic situation, and it encompasses much that is wrong. . . .
Most investors, businesses, and analysts, despite their deep pessimism about the consumer outlook, will be surprised by the length and severity of the consumer pullback.
The public is starting to discover the seriousness of the state and local fiscal position, but the magnitude and fallout of the developing nonfederal government crisis will prove shocking.
Many fear that the present financial mess is setting the stage for surging Treasury yields, and most will be surprised by how low yields will fall. . . .
House prices will probably fall another 20%. . . .
The emerging market sector of the global economy is facing more than a financial crisis; it is facing a depression, which unfortunately is likely to be uncontained and severe in many countries. . . .
Lending is not going to be fixed by recapitalizing banks. The underlying problem is not just that aggregate private loans are too large relative to bank capital; it is that they are too large relative to aggregate private income. Thus, the problem is with the borrowers, not just the lenders, and households need to lower their debt relative to income while corporations need to lower their debt relative to revenue. . .
Even if the recession does end before 2010, employment will continue to decline. It is likely to fall for another year or two as downsizing and restructuring persist. The unemployment rate is likely to reach 8.5% by the end of 2009 and will be near 10% before it reverses.
WTF? Liberal media bias! Why is Obama not mentioned? A crack reporter from US News has received some skittish emails and is blaming this on a fear of Obama’s future policies- how can we possibly square these two positions? Is it possible one of them is wrong?
gbear
Everyone blames Obama.
jake 4 that 1
Yeah. Basically, anyone who says the market was cruising along just fine until Obama won the nomination/pulled ahead in the polls may as well shout: "I know absolutely nothing about anything whatsoever!" "Or I’m a lying sack of crap!" and save us the trouble.
But why bother to reflect and maybe do a little research when we can play blame the democrat.
zzyzx
And in other news, KDKA is reporting:
TR
The full story here.
Ugh
I called it.
Montysano (All Hail Marx & Lennon)
@zzyzx:
No one could have predicted this!
Foxhunter
He’s set the bar for economic hack-titude. Consistent defender of the status quo. Maybe his prissy ass should get out of the HD camera lens, come visit Pro-America and realize that shit’s been bad and it ain’t because of the Sock Monkey for Prez movement. Eat it Pethokoukis and keep lipping Kudlow’s rear, who is a class a study in Republican or die.
The Fundamentals of the Economy are Strong®
fuddmain
@zzyzx:
I probably shouldn’t, but I feel bad for this girl. This whole thing seems like a cry for help.
Then again, she may just be an unhinged wingnut.
Foxhunter
@fuddmain:
Or she may be like half the folks that my wife teaches with. They actually believe the Obama is the Anti-Christ and have begun speaking about freakin’ end times bullshit…and this is her means to ‘get out the vote for McSame’. God sometimes it sucks to be stuck in Georgia.
Oh, hey fuddmain. Nice flickr set you have there…good lookin’ fam damily.
jrg
Is there any other kind? But really… It takes a special kind of stupid to carve a backwards "B" in your face (in a mirror, obviously), then claim an "attacker" did it.
But then again, it takes a special kind of stupid to be a McCain/Palin supporter.
Josh Hueco
@fuddmain:
I was hardly surprised to find out this was a hoax, and even less surprised to find out she’s from College Station.
gbear
@fuddmain:
I’m wondering if the ‘B’ on her head was backwards because she was looking into a mirror while scratching herself (um, not in the same way that guys scratch..).
I also wonder what people do to give themselves black eyes. It’s just too bizarre to think that someone would actually punch themselves in the face.
4tehlulz
Emo wingnut is emooooooooo
Maybe she can still salvage this if she can deliver the cutter vote for McCain.
zzyzx
I’ll start feeling sorry as soon as I stop laughing. Enjoy jail!
Eric U.
I would hope that the prospects of an Obama presidency is actually keeping stock prices from falling more than they otherwise would. Every time that Bush reminds investors that he will still be president for another few months, stocks tank. I don’t expect for the turnaround to occur earlier than 2010, which I believe is optimistic. If McCain becomes president, I’m going to stock up on small items that I can sell out of a tin cup on the street corner. I’ll be investing in sturdy clothes for when I’m sleeping under the viaduct.
Joshau Norton
You forgot the most important thing to blame. The 16th year of the Clinton presidency.
Remember the the primary wingnut mantra:
Everything Somehow Has To Be Clinton’s Fault.
4tehlulz
@gbear: eyeliner, pencil lead
penisfuddmain
@Foxhunter:
Florida has its share of those whackos. Fortunately, Orlando is diverse enough that it gets diluted.
Thanks for compliment. I’m still amazed that I’m allowed to have kids. They pretty much look like clones of me when I was that age. Unfortunately, that means their future on the looks front is bleak:)
AkaDad
The market is tanking because Wall St. and Main St. are watching Obama take a vacation to Hawaii during an economic crisis.
He’s basically throwing all of us under the bus.
Josh Hueco
Oops, what I meant to say is that I’m even less surprised that’s she’s a fucking aggy.
Foxhunter
@gbear:
Or perhaps someone was holding her upside down when the turkey carving commenced.
She was probably watchin’ WWE and started smellin’ what the Rock was cookin’.
zzyzx
I am bummed though that No Quarter didn’t run with this story. I actually went to the site in order to read what should have been yesterday’s rant.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Jeesh – Nouriel Roubini starts picking up all the hot chicks at parties and the next thing you know everybody wants to play Dr. Doom.
gbear
Balloon Juice is seriously screwing up if you try to give it anything short of full screen (bad at work. sneaky small screen good). The ads are landing on top of the text making everything impossible to read. Is that now a feature or is it a bug?
kc
gbear, that’s happening to me, too. I can’t even read the first two posts. Plus it takes the dadgum page 5 minutes to load. And that’s on the GOOD computer.
Zifnab
@Josh Hueco: Hey now. My room mate is an Aggie and they’re generally made out of less douche baggy stuff. If you want to meet real douche bags, go to Texas Tech or Baylor or Houston Baptist U or something. This was just a bad apple. Which, I guess, explains the B on her face.
Throwin' Stones
PNC buys National City with addition of 7.7B from the Treasury
TS
Shinobi
My reaction to this economic news is not dissmilar to the right’s reaction to the fact that they are losing this election.
:: fingers in ears:: LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA!!!!
joel
So it turns out that years upon years of flattened or declining real wages actually is kind of a problem after all.
Pug
I think John McCain should just fire the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That might help.
Thomas Edward Theadore
Hey, look at the bright side, at least the IMF will soon be back in the black again.