Jeff Merkley took the lead in the official count in Oregon.
***Update***
Find the latest count here.
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Brian J
Good. Now I just want Franken to pull it out in Minnesota and for Martin to win in the runoff in Georgia. That should bring us to 58, which as others have pointed out means that Lieberman isn’t needed nearly as much because he’s not the sixtieth senator. So yes, I guess it would nice to win those extra seats if for no other reason than to kick his fat ass to the curb.
Comrade Tax Analyst
That’s good news. I was disappointed to see Franken slightly behind when I checked this morning. Recount is a tough way to come back. If he goes on ahead on that it’s almost a sure thing Coleman will file some type of action. But a recount is better than a straight loss…and I was pleased to find Chambliss fell slightly short of 50% in Georgia and now has to face Martin in a run-off.
That One - Cain
Fuck yah.. go Jeff! Merkley is a curious person.. he never wanted to run for Congress, they forced him to cuz they couldn’t find anybody else to run against Smith. There was a lot of negative bullshit here in Oregon.
The thing was, I never really understood what the hell those two were representing. Smith, I knew. I’ve voted Smith for years. I voted Merkley simply because I wanted the 60 vote majoriityin congress. I know Merkeley did a good job leading the oregon democrats but I don’t think most of his accompslihments are that well known.
My wife voted for Smith and I voted for Merkley so we cancelled eacho ther out.
cain
HyperIon
it’s an unsupported allegation without a link.
please provide.
(i was just checking out Oregon and did not see Smith behind.)
i hate posts that refer to an external event yet have no link. atrios does it fairly often. actually he is more prone to post a reaction and then i can’t figure out to what he is reacting. but you get the idea…
red plaid
Here is an update from the brother of the Dem. senate candidate from Alaska. He marks his brother’s chances at 50/50.
Any predictions of how many of the 4 open senate seats the Democrats take? My guess is 2. Too bad we won’t know for sure until December.
Hyperlon:
You can check the MSNBC widget . Right now it shows Merkley ahead by 2.5K votes.
Brian J
If it’s a legitimate recount where there’s a clearly agreed upon set of events, unlike Florida in 2000, then I imagine any sort of whining about what happened will quickly be forgotten as time goes on.
What sort of "action" could Coleman file?
But more importantly, how can Franken come ahead? In what ways can a recount be expected to change the result? Are there any ballots that are left to be counted?
Brian J
Well, then, I guess it still is possible to get to 60. It doesn’t seem necessarily likely, but we still have four chances to gain some seats.
Still, part of me wants to get to 58 or 59, get either Collins or Snowe or both, or Specter, to go along, all while telling Lieberman and the high horse he rode in on to go fuck himself.
Comrade Stuck
I hope he pulls it out too. I also hope the first time I see him on the Senate floor, I don’t start laughing out loud.
Dennis - SGMM
Franken is good enough, he’s smart enough, and doggone It, people like him.
Delia
I was just listening to my local NPR station in Eugene on my way home and within five minutes they said first that Merkley had pulled ahead and second that Smith was still ahead.
I’ve been phonebanking for Merkley because Smith has been supporting too much of the Bush agenda, and we need a Democrat. He’s been defining himself recently as a man of the working class. Both of their teevee ads have been terrible. Smith started out trying to define himself as a Democrat and with a bunch of nasty attack ads. Merkley’s had a lot of attack ads, too, and a lot of people are just turned off. But I think a lot of dems just voted for Smith because he"s familiar.
Comrade Stuck
@Dennis – SGMM:
Maybe he’ll show up as Stuart Smalley and gather the wingnuts for a little self help action.
Brian J
Am I hallucinating, or did I read somewhere today that they were not done counting votes in Georgia for the presidential race?
Interestingly enough, there might be a fight over provisional ballots in Missouri. It obviously doesn’t matter from a rational standpoint, but it’d be nice to have another blue state or two in the column.
Damned at Random
I just checked the counties still out in Oregon and they include the Portland and Eugene metro areas. Merkley is ahead in those counties – Smith is ahead in some smaller counties still counting, but my back of envelope calculation says Merkley by about 35,000 in the end (lets see if I still have the touch)
Foxhunter
@Brian J:
They stopped counting absentee in Fulton County/Atlanta last night at 2AM due to exhaustion. Set to resume today at 7:30AM. Linky
As of right now, Georgia SoS is shows 96% of the precints reporting. McCain 52.4, Obama 46.8.
Chuck Butcher
The red counties sitll counting are near ties so little damage to be done to Merkley there. Multnomah Co was going huge for Merkley and his vote count will only go up there. Baker County was a disappointment, about 26% for Democratic candidates including Obama. The numbers show nearly 25% of registered Dems went R.
A reporter called me today and I said the numbers show we need to do a lot of work. He naturally wanted to know why on the Ds and what I told him was you could figure god, guns, and gays and beyond that and most importantly is the conservativism of the populace, not ideologically, but in mind set toward change. I emphasized that this reluctance to embrace the newest things isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I do think that Obama was the best bet and by far the most competent.
Delia
Oregonian calls it for Merkley.
YESSSS.
(And they endorsed Smith. Suck it up.)
dr. bloor
Oregonian calling it for Merkley at this point–he has the lead with most of the remaining vote to be counted in favorable territory.
As for getting to sixty, I don’t think we’ll get it, nor do I think it will mean much one way or the other. I’m not anticipating much in the way of Obama shoving progressive programs down Congress’s throat, and expect he’ll piss off the left as often as he pisses off the right.
demimondian
@Chuck Butcher: Ah, you’re in Baker County? (I know, I could look up your name in the list of Congressional candidates, but I’m too lazy, and, besides, people find it spooky when I do that.)
demimondian
@dr. bloor:
I won’t be surprised either way; it doesn’t really matter to me. I expect every politician to piss me off, and I plan on complaining about it when that happens. After all, it’s my government, and it works for me.
It does matter to me that Obama have the nuclear option of cloture in his back pocket when he negotiates with Mitch McConnell or his successor as Senate Republican Leader. If he has it, then the Republicans come to him in a situation where they can slow, but not stop, any important legislation. That effectively takes the filibuster off the table, and forces the Senate Republicans act like grown ups for the first time this decade.
jcricket
Brian – This is fairly simple. Judging from the experience in WA state in 2004 (governor’s race recount) this is what’s going on:
1) The process of feeding millions of optical scan ballots through the machines has, itself, a margin of error. Usually it’s small enough to be swamped by the final margin, but not always (as in this case, 0.04% is below the margin of error for the optical scan machines).
Feeding the ballots through a second time, or more slowly, making sure everything is more carefully separated, etc. can produce a more accurate result just by itself.
2) Some ballots get rejected due to problems with the paper, stray marks, or mistakes on the part of the voter. Most states have laws that say if the voter intent is clear, your vote is counted, machine rejection is not "final" rejection. Usually when there is a question about voter intent there’s lots of debate (each side trying to disqualify ballots from the other).
3) From what I understand, there may be a "cache" of provisional ballots that may not even be counted yet due to registration "questions".
If all things were equal, the final margin would be identical. But things are never quite equal (esp. in situation #2 and #3). If mistakes are made more often by one segment of the population, or provisional ballots issued to a certain demographic – and either of those groups heavily weights towards one candidate – you can see a swing after a recount.
I wouldn’t expect to see a large swing (i.e. 2% in either direction), but it will take a swing of much less than 1% to change the result of this election.
BTW – in WA state the law allows for a 2nd recount (3rd count), to be done by hand. Which they did, swinging the final count to Gregoire. Republicans saw this as stealing the election, but it wasn’t. A conservative judge the state GOP basically hand-picked, ruled the state followed the law, the hand recount was fair and accurate (the most accurate count, actually) and in fact disqualified 4 votes for the Republican.
At any rate – no process is perfect, especially where there’s 10 million+ pieces of paper filled out by humans. And when the margin’s this close, it’s good the law has a built in mechanism for getting a more accurate result.
None. Although I suspect the state GOP can and will be contesting every contestable/questionable ballot (whether its’ a voter intent issue, a provisional ballot, etc.). That is their right (and it’s actually expected as part of the process). Democracy in action.
Delia
@dr. bloor:
Many people are pointing out the devil’s bargain of getting sixty. That sixty has to include Holy Joe Lieberman. If we’re a few short of the number, Harry Reid just cuts the backstabbing traitor loose and lets him try to find a home with the nice Republicans. But if we get fifty-nine, they have to continue to pretend how much they like him and want to be his friend so we have the magic number sixty and can supposedly be filibuster-proof. Fat chance with him in the mix.
jcricket
You are not hallucinating, and I found that odd as well. I sincerely doubt the Presidential vote will change much (although perhaps Martin will pick up some extra votes) but every vote counts – for many reasons, including the narrative of how much Obama won the election by, how well he did in red states, etc.
If I read the numbers correctly, Obama is down by 0.2% (not 2%, but 2/10ths of 1%) in MO. There are a bunch of close races (local stuff) in MO where mandatory recounts are going to take place. Again, while I doubt Obama will win, and I don’t think it "materially" matters, it definitely helps set the tone. Plus a MO win later in the week or next would be a nice "coda" to the whole story (gives Obama one more "red" state).
As far as the Senate goes – Seeing we’ve won in OR, I predict we lose narrowly in AK, win narrowly in MN, and lose the runoff in Georgia. I’d give us only a 10% chance of winning 3 out of 4 (if the email from Begich’s brother is accurate) and 5% 4 out of 4 (I just can’t see us winning in Georgia).
dr. bloor
@Delia:
I was thinking the same thing earlier. If we can’t get a clean sixty, I’d rather be at 57 sans Lieberman. Then the sumbitch can go caucus with Joe McCarthy’s empty liquor bottles in the boiler room of the Rayburn building for all I care.
Comrade Stuck
I’ve got mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, the country needs a sharp course correction without a lot of bullshit from the right. On the other, there are a lot of liberal special interest groups who are going to be clamoring for there just dessert on their pet issue or issues. Obama, as it is, will be pressured most from his own party to go along with these demands and he needs to remain practical and not try and change the country over night. Having the prospect of GOP filibusters to take some of the heat on slowing the train down might be a good thing. The handful of GOP moderates will have a lot of power and will likely side with dems on the key issues like health care and other urgent legislation.
jcricket
Regarding the Senate’s makeup – let’s not forget Snowe and Collins are the last of their kind (elected Republicans are a dying breed in New England). So that’s another 2 seats for Democrats in the next 10 years or so.
Lieberman, if kicked out of the Dem caucus and running as a quasi-Republican, would lose next time around (+1).
I’m not predicting some magical 70 seat Senate majority any time soon for Democrats, but Republicans are in a deep hole, and won’t be climbing their way out easily.
More importantly, we’re getting close to 30 governorships. The more of those and House and Senate seats we take, the smaller the pool is for Republican presidential candidates (or any other kind of national office).
We don’t have to "win it all at once" is what I’m saying. In fact, a narrative of winning in 2006, 2008 and then again in 2010 would be intensely catalyzing come 2012 (it’s what happened to FDR that made him so powerful).
cain
Yeehaa, Merkley is in! Buh Bye Smith! I like the guy, and voted for him teh whole time I was in oregon, but we need to get Merkley in.. we need to get as close to 60 as possible.
cain
jcricket
BTW – I think Smith is related to the Udall brothers (and their late, famous, Dad as well). Have we replaced the Bushes with the Udalls?
Comrade Stuck
@jcricket:
And also Judd NH. And Spector PA
jcricket
@Comrade Stuck: I forgot about those two…
Also, here’s details on the MN recount. It’s a hand recount. The likelihood is high this recount will favor Franken, by a small amount.
Right now they are separated by 0.01% (seriously – that’s nuts).
I also love the bullshit from Coleman where he says, "I would wave the recount if I were in Franken’s shoes". Fuck you Coleman. Fuck you.
Delia
I saw on some news show today that Harry Reid is due to have a nice private meeting with Joe Lieberman tomorrow.
Delia
@jcricket:
And yes, Smith is a cousin of the Udalls. Don’t know why he ended up Repub.
gwangung
Trying to improve the breed?
jcricket
Actually, it’s the current Udalls that are breaking the mold. The older Udalls and Smiths are your classic Republican types.
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