Will time make him bolder? And what will this mean for those who have built their lives around him?
I invite you to consider these important questions, and any others, in this open thread.
Reader Interactions
88Comments
Comments are closed.
Come for the politics, stay for the snark.
He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.
If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.
I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.
Giving up is unforgivable.
Not loving this new fraud based economy.
Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.
Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.
“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”
There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.
SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.
We still have time to mess this up!
We are aware of all internet traditions.
Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.
New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.
You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.
Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.
This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.
Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.
Everybody saw this coming.
One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.
… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact
Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?
Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.
When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.
dmsilev
I think we should start calling him Rand-al Paul. Apologies to any Robert Jordan fans.
dms
Cat Lady
Well, I learned from our awesome bobbleheads this morning that his cardinal sin was not his stance on civil rights, but his inability to pick the right media outlet for his post election introduction.
/facepalm
jeffreyw
It’s made some folks bolder. It’ll make him reconsider venues and scripts.
El Cid
If he would just build that perpetual free energy from static machine and act with the Ayn-Rand-admired ethics of a serial killer, we’d all love him.
Laura W.
Can he sail through the oily ocean tides?
Fern
@Cat Lady: Doesn’t get much more cynical than that.
beltane
A report from the Kentucky GOP’s unity rally showed Rand to be on Mitch McConnell’s short leash. It was Mitch doing most of the talking and Mitch reminding the attendees that they had to reach out to Democrats, since turnout in the Dem primary was twice that of the GOP’s. http://dailykos.com/story/2010/5/23/869114/-VIDEO-Update:-KY-Comments-on-Paul-Unity-Rally
Trey Grayson was said to be in tears throughout the festivities.
cat48
Eh, no more talking. Karl Rove called his staff and told them to keep him away from the media. I wanted to hear all about the Amero & the Nafta Super Highway they are secretly plotting in the WH and all the other black helicopter tales he & daddy have. Austrian economics and get rid of the fed!
El Cid
@Cat Lady: As the wise and unbiased sage Joe Scarborough asked, “Why the hell did he go on MSNBC, uh, I mean, um, on any national media, yeah, that’s what I meant…”
beltane
@Cat Lady: Damn, if Hitler had just picked a better make-up artist, that whole WWII business could have been avoided.
Aesthetics trumps everything to this crowd. They are all Robin Givehn.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
I don’t quite understand this idea that Rand Paul is in some kind of tailspin. Maybe I just have a long memory but I seem to remember an Alaskan politician who avoided the media and gave stupid answers to questions on those rare occasions she spoke to them and who quit on her obligations, and now she gets six figures for reciting jokes she stole off the internet to adoring audiences. All Rand Paul has to do is play the “liberal media is mean to me” card and he’s back on top faster than you can say Jack Robinson.
beltane
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): He can do it but it will take hiking up his skirts a little higher. Are his legs as nice as Sarah’s? Will he wink and show Rich Lowery his cleavage?
walt
Victimhood is the ultimate sanctification of wingnuttery. These people are still trying to redeem Joe McCarthy fer crissakes. Palin wears it tiara to bed every night. Rand Paul, by comparison, shouldn’t be that hard. In today’s political climate, the crazier the better.
BethanyAnne
I posted about this earlier; the previous open thread (about 4 or so topics down) broke. Someone last year recommended me to http://www.tomatogrowers.com . I’ve got a bunch of seeds from them, looks like they are doing fine. Might be of interest to ya, John, if you start from seeds next time.
cleek
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
aw come on, embrace the narrative !
donquijoterocket
Cat lady is a fine illustration of Lily Tomlin’s assertion that No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up.
I appreciate the author’s subtle Fleetwood Mac reference in the headline.
I don’t know how closely Dr. Paul is aligned with the Christian right faction that ordinarily accompanies both the Republican party and the baggers,but he’d be wise to remember that When religion and politics ride in the same cart, the whirlwind follows.
I also wonder if he’s smart enough to realize that Libertarian principles pushed to their logical extent result in the kind of anti-democratic nonsense that’s fallen out of his face so far, and if so what he’d do about it.
mistermix
@Laura W.: I’m doubtful, because he’s built his life around kooks.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@beltane:
Why does he need nice legs? Rush doesn’t have nice legs, neither does Glenn Beck. Paul is a little skinny, I’d recommend to him that he put on about thirty pounds and then he can say any goddamned stupid thing he wants and get away with it.
MikeJ
Know what caused the landslide? Atlas shrugging.
Corner Stone
Not like this was a really hard call or anything, but:
No, mon. No Jamaica for me.
beltane
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): Rush and Beck are out there every day pushing their crap; they don’t want Rand Paul out there doing the same. If Rand Paul is going to be allowed to stay silent and sphinx-like, he’ll need to find another strategy to get just the right amount of media attention. Sex sells, and he does have an interesting, cherubic look about him. It is an avenue he ought to explore.
NobodySpecial
Like waste products through the intestinal tract, so run the days of the GOP’s lives…
hal
I’m getting a kick out of the Huffpo story featuring James “cryptkeeper” Carville’s criticism of the President’s response to the oil spill. 20,000 plus comments, and Carville doesn’t do anything but bloviate about the end of Obama’s admin if he doesn’t personally go to the gulf, wave his magic wand, and turn all that oil to gold, thus saving the environment and the economy.
It’s odd to me that Obama is seen as unconcerned because he isn’t throwing a hissy fit every other minute over this crisis.
P.S. to the article writer, James Carville (and Chris Wallace) might be “two reliable supporters of President Barack Obama”, but Carville is really more importantly a reliable Democrat, and possibly more specifically, a reliable Clintonite, so I would take what he says with a grain of salt.
Mike Kay
@beltane: palin does have nice tits.
PeakVT
Will Rand’s Slide Bring Him Down?
Possibly, but if Blitzer’s interview with Conway a few days ago is any indication, the media will rally behind Rand al-Paul any moment now.
JGabriel
@cat48:
Austrians don’t even use Austrian economics. Why the fuck should we?
.
Laura W.
@mistermix: I am very fond of Kooks.
Incertus (Brian)
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): Yeah, I’m going to wait to see some polling data before I get excited about a possible Democratic win in Kentucky. I don’t have a problem seeing a state that went hard for McCain/Palin less than two years ago giving Rand Paul a thumbs-up for that sort of rhetoric.
licensed to kill time
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
Well, if Rand Paul only aspires to be a radio/tv personality, then you have a point. If he wants to continue to be a politician he’s going to have to learn how to play the media game better, not that I wish him any luck with that.
beltane
@Mike Kay: Even back then she was the girl everyone loved to hate. She sure ain’t broke anymore, though she’s still as sleazy as ever.
Alex S.
As a true Randroid I’m happy to say that the Random is growing steadily.
Cat Lady
@beltane:
He’s gotta find a way to remove that muskrat thingy stapled to his head though. It’s distracting from his soothing voice/
Brandon
His problem right now is that conservatives now believe that he is not conservative. Go read what Redstate has to say about him. He needs to go and win back conservatives first, before he can go anywhere. It will be interesting to see him do that and then be able to turn around and be appealing in a general election now that the primary is over. The media rules allow for one to go full wingnut during a primary as long as you make appropriate moderate gestures during the general. After that it matters not how you govern. Rand Paul needs to both go full wingnut and sound like a moderate during the general. So far as I can tell, he refuses to do either, so I have no idea how he can do both at the same time.
wrb
He’s soaring with the base. He’s now preferred over Palin for prez among the baggers.
He’s now signaled to them that he with them on the opinions that must not be named- he will avoid hard questions from here out I expect and they will remain convinced that he believes what they believe on everything or they will adjust their beliefs to match those of the new leader. Watch how effortlessly they flip to align with his anti-war beliefs.
Whether he can win in the general in Kentucky I have no idea.
Zandar
Just for the record, I would really, really rather not see this particular gentleman as my Senator, and applaud any efforts by Jack Conway and the DSCC to actually try to stop this from happening.
SIA
How can a headline made me so happy? Politics of the absurd. From Political Wire:
“Chicken Suits Banned at Nevada Polls”
JGabriel
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
But Palin will never be elected to Federal office. In a two person race, which most federal races are, you need a majority to win.
In TV, you just need enough eyeballs to sell ads. And the exceptionally gullible teabagger audience is a prime target for some companies, especially the type that focus on scams.
.
.
cleek
@JGabriel:
Austrian economics? know what else came from Austria? Hitler. that’s what.
licensed to kill time
@Cat Lady: I’m keeping a list of animals associated with his hair and/or stapled to his head. So far I’ve got ferret, badger and muskrat.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): Umm. She didn’t win. I’m not sure Rand Paul’s goal is to land a talkshow on Fox, but if that’s it, you’re right, he’s on track.
I’ve seen Jack Conway on CNN – he’s a pretty strong candidate and says he’d be delighted to have a live head-to-head debate on CNN with Baby Doc RuPaulier (apologies to someone on Wonkette for that one). Something tells me that won’t happen anytime soon.
arguingwithsignposts
But does he cross his legs? Dammit, why does nobody ask the important questions!1!?
PaulW
Rand has nowhere to go BUT down.
If he takes the Palin route of playing to safe audiences, he’ll end up working the more extreme rhetoric that his backers already likes. He won’t be able to appeal to the independent and moderate voters that are still undecided.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@licensed to kill time:
I’m a left coaster, but my understanding is that winning office in Kentucky on a right-wing platform might be an eensy-weensy bit easier than where I live. Maybe a Kentuckian can tell us how the folks back home are taking all the gaffes.
Paul could blow it, sure, he’s a bit of a neophyte politician, but if Nate Silver reckons that Sarah Palin has a nonzero chance of becoming President then I don’t see why Paul can’t turn it around with just a deft maneuver or two.
Cain
@dmsilev:
haha.. I kept thinking that too. I just re-read the last book. This rand ain’t that rand for sure. This guy rides on the winds of farts, not time.
cain
Brandon
@Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people): Let’s see, Conway is the current AG who has already had success in statewide races. Paul has never run for election of any kind. The only way forward for Paul at this point is to shut his hole, stay away from debates and the press and do some tv commercials to humanize himself. Play the country doctor/common sense conservative schtick. Lucky for him this is all happening now and not in August. He’s got many months for folks to forget about his actual views and just look at the R next to his name.
arguingwithsignposts
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
She has *zero* chance of becoming president. I’m sorry, but Nate is concern trolling here. Even if she won the GOP nomination, there is *no fucking way* the country would pull the lever for her over Obama. I’d predict Mondale levels of rejection.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@JGabriel:
Do you think that if a Senate seat were open in Alaska and she decided to run for it that her chances would be zero?
fasteddie9318
@cleek:
How dare you engage in such irresponsible, hyperbolic language in today’s political climate! You’re just like the Pol Pot-wannabes in the White House and their Maoist buddies in the lamestream media who want to kill off our grandparents and making us all get gay married to swarthy Satan-worshiping terrorists and then aborting the babies.
Also too, Stalin. Also.
Plus, only Hitler would know that Hitler came from Austria. Us real Murkins who only read Texas-approved history books know that he sprang fully grown from George Soros’ head after Saul Alinsky split it open with an ax he borrowed from Bill Ayers, and Obama, as we all know, is Hitler’s love child by Osama bin Laden.
Cain
Right wingers want tax cuts and more money because they keep giving it to people like Palin who are sucking up their money because of their fear of the unknown and their nationalism. Losers. I do feel bad for these aging boomers (like I did in the 80s for those former WWII folks) who were just giving their retirement money to those blasted christian organizations who used it on blow and cheap women!
cain
Mike Kay
@Brandon: can you be so kind to save us some distress and tell us what the haters are saying about him.
QuaintIrene
I’m betting on the teeter-totter. Or maybe the monkey bars.
Todd Dugdale
KY is one of the few states in which a candidate can take the positions Paul has and still win.
But in winning a Senate seat in Kentucky, Paul may very well be throwing away the Republican Party’s chances in many other races outside of the South. This is the inherent peril of a national political movement; you tie all of your candidates together.
For low-information voters in R+ districts, the Republicans have always had a huge advantage: they are given the benefit of a doubt as far as being the safe, sane choice. With the Democrats, you might be getting some kind of closet hippie/gay, or a Jew, or even a ‘Satanist’. At the least, you ‘know’ that the Republican is a Christian and a family man/woman. Again, these are low-information voters I am describing.
Now, however, Paul comes along with some really crazy ideas. He is associated with this “Tea Party” thing that even low-information voters have heard something about. And the whole Republican Party seems to be dominated by these “Tea Party” people. Maybe voting for the Republican isn’t the safe, sane choice anymore. Faced with the choices of 1) taking a risk 2) doing actual research or 3) not voting, choice #3 looks attractive to low-information voters.
gbear
@dmsilev:
I hope he winds up so sorry that he ran for office that we get to call him Rue Paul.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@arguingwithsignposts:
Oh, I completely agree that that is by far the most likely scenario, but I once again have to remind the younger crowd that conventional wisdom was saying pretty much the same thing about Ronald Reagan c. 1978.
We’re kind of drifting off from the original premise which was that Rand Paul’s career as a public figure is in deep trouble, and I still say it’s grossly premature to think that.
licensed to kill time
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
I’d like to hear that. I’m a lefty too (coast and political), and sometimes forget to put on my corrective righty lenses when viewing events that just look batshit crazy to me. So an interpreter would come in handy.
ETA: Kudos on the title, mistermix
Brandon
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): Short answer, NO. She made some sounds about challenging Murkowski, but Murkowski put her in her place with relative ease. After skipping out as a half-term Gov., I cannot see how she wins a statewide race in AK for anything other than pageant queen (apologies).
She might be getting more media exposure now, but so what? I think every candidate she campaigned for so far has lost. Now she is out there in Arizona with Jan Brewer destroying any hope for hispanic votes. The woman has zero chance.
mcd410x
DEMAND Congress stop the police and firefighters from … doing something. Also, stop Congress from stopping your using credit cards!!
THIS is a winning message. Also.
arguingwithsignposts
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
As someone who grew up during the Reagan era, I would use the words of one Lloyd Bentsen: “i knew ronald reagan, i worked with ronald reagan, and you, ma’am, are no Ronald Reagan.” She is an idiot par excellence, and she’s no politician on par with St. Ronnie. She’d be destroyed in any presidential debate, much less three or more, which is the standard.
Like I said, Mondale levels here, or even worse.
ChockFullO'Nuts
No, but being a libertarian, and his big mouth, probably will.
The problem with libertarianism is that it won’t work. Unless you can imagine a government that doesn’t collect taxes, and leaves everything alone to break, rot with bacteria, fall apart, blow up, kill workers, poison customers, run off minorities with ax handles, make people sick, ignore malpractice, stop providing public education, lets bridges fall down, ignores potholes, belittles science, lets monopoly utilities set their own rates, emasculates regulation, oversight, building codes, safety standards, mine inspection, air traffic control …. working …. and they keep the idiot inside a bubble where nobody can talk to him, I think he might have some problems.
But that’s just me. I’m just a can of coffee.
cat48
@JGabriel:
I was quoting the Paultards. I have no idea why anyone should use Austrian economics or get rid of the Fed.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@Brandon:
I was asking about a hypothetical open seat. What if Begich’s seat were up in 2010 or 2012 and she decided to run against him, do you think her chances would be zero? What if she skips the Presidential run and goes for Begich’s seat in 2014, do you think her chances would be zero? What if Don Young retires in 2012 and Palin runs for his seat, do you think her chances would be zero?
Splitting Image
I’m with Bruce here. It’s way too early to tell how the race will turn out. Paul seems to be saying most of the right things now, so if he can keep it up, he ought to be able to pull it out.
The problem is what he’s said over the years. It’s one thing to support government subsidies for the coal industry during a campaign, but if you have years and years of quotes saying government should stay the hell out of business, then you have a real problem. If Conway can do his oppo research well and keep forcing Paul to defend (or repudiate) one idiot opinion after another, he’s got a good shot.
If Conway = Coakley, Paul has this in the bag no matter what.
wrb
Exactly how my friends and I thought of Ronnie until he won.
If she wins the village will discover her unrecognized brilliance and explain it to us.
arguingwithsignposts
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
Re: Alaska, it’s an aberration in regards to the number of voters. IDK that she would pull that well in a statewide race for Sen. I know for damn sure that she’d lose a presidential against anyone except satan himself.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@arguingwithsignposts:
She already has been destroyed in a (vice) presidential debate, the country was a complete disaster thanks to her party, and her ticket still got 46% of the vote. I reckon her chances as quite low but nonzero.
bemused
Rand Paul said others have hung the label of being a libertarian around his neck but I didn’t read if he has been asked or has stated what label he prefers.
The brilliant Palin fan Bill Kristol likes Paul, alos. Bill thinks Paul has a sophisticated, complicated libertarian view of Civil Rights Act & is attractive, plain spoken & seems thoughtful & honest.
Kirk Spencer
@arguingwithsignposts: Actually, Cheney polls better than her.
Fern
I think that Paul is going to have a very difficult time with this campaign. He has an enormous ego and a very thin skin, and he is not at his best when he goes on the defensive. He gets petulant when challenged. I think he could be pretty easily provoked into really weird behaviour under consistent pressure – the kind that Conway is perfectly capable of providing.
He also looks to have a pretty broad streak of imagined moral superiority and to think that he is right about everything. I think he actually believes the crap he is spouting. In any case, there is going to be a lot of friction between him and the people who are going to be handling him and running his campaign, especially if those people are chosen for him by the party. If the GOP establishment tries to package him in a way that will get him votes, he is going to feel that he is violating his principles – unless he is way more cynical than I think he is. On the other hand, he appears to be really ambitious, so who knows.
Judging from the behaviour of his wife and kids at public events, I think things are pretty bad at home. I suspect him of being a bully. He has said his wife did not want him to run. So he will be under pressure there as well.
I don’t think he will handle all this well on a personal level. It’s going to get interesting.
frosty
@cleek: Nice work. Excellent use of Lewis Black’s review of Glenn Beck: “It’s like Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon only it’s one degree and Kevin Bacon is Hitler.”
Let’s check the math:
Austrian economics -> Hitler was Austrian.
A+
Hal
I think it’s safe to say that Reagan had far greater skills in communication and bonafides than Palin.
chrome agnomen
@NobodySpecial:
/chortle/
Jay S
@wrb:
We can only hope “Being there” was only a movie, not a prophesy.
@Fern: Right, he’s already handling it badly. How bad does he have to behave before Kentucky voters say no? Alternately, I thought it was unlikely that the GOP could make him quit, but perhaps internal pressure will have him go Perot.
Lysana
All I know is, I never want to see his reflection in the snow-covered hills.
Brachiator
@Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people):
Baby Doc. I like that.
Or, given how he supposedly refused taking the congratulatory phone call …
Rude Paul
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@Hal:
Bona fides, perhaps. Reagan didn’t quit in the middle of his first term as governor. But as for communication skills it’s remarkable how similarly the mainstream pundits treated Reagan then and treat Palin now. People like me would listen to Reagan and say, “my god, his tropes are simple-minded, how can anyone fall for them,” but fall they did. Now they’re telling us how effectively Palin communicates with her base, the only question is whether she can broaden her appeal, blah blah blah. I’m not predicting that Palin’s career will follow a similar trajectory to Reagan’s, I consider it quite unlikely, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
Wile E. Quixote
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
Bullshit. The only people who didn’t think that Reagan was a viable candidate in 1978 were dipshit New Yorkers who never left Greenwich Village and retarded hippies who dropped too much acid.
Comparing Reagan to Palin is as ignorant and stupid as anything that comes out of Sarah Palin’s mouth. Reagan served two terms as governor of California and nearly took the Republican nomination from Gerry Ford in 1976. Palin’s a fuckup who couldn’t even hack a single term as governor of Alaska. Say what you will about his beliefs the man had serious political skills that he had been honing since he had been president of the Screen Actor’s Guild in the late 1940s. Reagan might have been a lot of things, but he wasn’t a lazy quitter and a fuckup like Palin is.
policomic
Will time make him bolder? Even children get older. And Rand’s getting older, too.
I’m not too proud to spot a Stevie Nicks reference (and well done on the title, too). Considering it’s Rand Paul, though, a Rush reference would have been more in order.
MrBenchley
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.): Nothing Rand said is particularly controversial to right wing loonies, who spout this sort of demented shit at the drop of a hat and yearn for the days of lynchings….
If he’s in any trouble with the tea baggers it’s becaus ehe walked it back…but he can explain that by screaming about “liberal media” and “PC climate” and the like.
What I do think might get him in more trouble is the notion that there
is something just so darn exhausting about sitting on your butt in an air conditioned TV studio running one’s yap for a week….don’t know how that’s going to play with miners, farmers, and blue collar workers.
Showing cowardice publicly also will not play well; neither will sticking up for mine owners….
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@Wile E. Quixote:
My, someone needs to switch to decaf on a Sunday afternoon.
Carter’s approval ratings in 1980 were in the toilet, yet Reagan couldn’t get above the mid 40s in polling against him until the last week of the campaign. The reason for that is that there was a widespread notion that Reagan was extreme and an empty suit. Apparently his folksy charm won over most of the late undecideds.
Reagan would never have been Reagan if it weren’t for some fortuitous twists of fate that he (presumably) had nothing to do with. Kennedy gets behind Carter from the start, a break with the hostage crisis, and a better performance in the final debate and Carter maybe beats him, in which case Reagan would have gone down in history as a folksy but empty-headed conservative. Sorry if these facts distress you. It’s easy from the perspective of hindsight to say that Reagan was some sort of political powerhouse, but I think you underestimate the role pure dumb luck in history. And while Sarah Palin is still a longshot to ever be anything more than what she is now she certainly has dumb luck on her side.
JoeC
Will time make him bolder?
Will time make him a soldier?
Will time make him older?
Obligatory Yardbirds shout out
Alex K
I don’t think it’s just his crazy beliefs-it’s his awkwardness on camera, his petulant diva behavior, his inability to get his words out clearly, all that put together. And yes, say “Sarah Palin” all you like, but since her “introduction” she’s made lots of money in the rightosphere but hasn’t actually won a single election. Hell, you might as well use Jonah Goldberg in your analogy.
That said, lots of this depends on what Conway is able to do with it. He looks good so far, but I imagine he doesn’t want to go all out 6 months before the election.
Allison W.
I think people should consider today’s media and forms of media when we compare Reagan’s and Palin’s chance of becoming president.
I read Nate all the time, but sorry there is no way in hell that she would beat Obama – ever. Do you know how much money he would raise to defeat her? Do you know how much she would solidify the Left and every single minority group? Do you know how women would line up behind Obama? Do you know how much this would solidify the Dems to get a death grip on Congress so that they could prevent her from doing anything? – the GOP would have none of that last one.
and it wasn’t Palin that got 46% of the votes, it was John McCain. People fooled themselves into thinking that McCain would be able to babysit her. They felt some comfort that he was at the top of the ticket. So unless she has a brain join her on the ticket – she wouldn’t even get that close.
Brachiator
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
What? Let’s go to the Wiki (United States presidential election of 1980):
Polling tightened by the end, but ultimately tilted decisively in Reagan’s direction:
Reagan sold himself, his record and his folksiness. He out-politicked Carter.
You do realize, don’t you, that you are not offering any “facts” here, but only speculations and alternative history timelines. And even here, you are missing an element of Carter’s clumsiness.
It wasn’t that Reagan performed better in the final debate, it’s that Carter’s insistence that a presidential debate exclude John Anderson turned out to be a disastrous political miscalculation. As a result, the first debate was cancelled, the second went on without Carter appearing, and so the last debate, held a month before the election, took on more importance than it might had otherwise.
Rand Paul, like Sarah Palin, are being advised to run from the media, a very risky strategy. If by some strange circumstance, Palin becomes the GOP presidential nominee, the best strategy would be to engage her early and often. Palin has some of Reagan’s folksiness, but little else, and she has shown zero interest in learning about the world (and in this she is very similar to the incurious Dubya). If she remains a national figure, it won’t just be dumb luck but a triumph of anti-intellectualism.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@Brachiator:
This:
“…no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened…Some pollsters at that time, however, were getting results that showed a slight Reagan lead.”
Overwhelmingly polls showed a statistical tie or slight lead for Reagan. If Reagan was the skilled politician and inevitable juggernaut that is being supposed then we really have to wonder why he couldn’t show a consistent and unambiguous lead over the deeply unpopular Carter, whose approval was barely better than Dubya Bush’s.
Right, as I said.
Well, actually, the part you are responding to was factually responsive to a particular point, namely that Reagan beat Carter because he was such a skilled politician. It’s a fact that Reagan had nothing to do with the poor economic situation, with Kennedy leading a major insurrection against Carter, with the hostage crisis (unless you subscribe to conspiracy theories). Those are all facts, all enormously beneficial to Reagan, and all just dumb luck for the challenging candidate. In spite of these things Carter managed to stay close to Reagan in polling until the end game.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the rest of your points, except that the final debate was about a week, not a month, before the election. It was widely accepted that Reagan won the debate going away.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@efgoldman:
The comparison that is being made is an accurate one; both are/were perceived as having intractable image problems.
bob h
I’d like to see more examination of his views on Iran’s nuclear program. Would it be fair to say that the Republicans want to elect someone who is cool with terrorists having nuclear weapons?
Chinn Romney
I could never vote for a guy that gets his hair done at the local Pet Grooming Center . I’m sure those Southerns want a real man, like Lindsay or Jefferson Beauregard the III, not some guy that looks like a poodle, representing them in DC.
Elie
@Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people):
Too much LOL!!!
Thanks for the grin (saw your attribution to poster on Wonkette, but thanks also for sharing it)