For as heated as this election season is, around here, locally, it seems like it isn’t even an election year. Other than a right to life group endorsing both Oliverio and McKinley, there are almost no clues that there is a race going on. I think I have seen a couple McKinley signs. I haven’t heard anything from the Oliverio campaign. Not a call to help, not a letter, nothing. I haven’t seen so much as a sign for Oliverio around here. Compared to the Obama and Hillary primary campaigns a few years ago, in which I was bombarded by both, I find that rather astonishing.
The only poll information I could find was from a few weeks ago:
A poll released Wednesday by Mike Oliverio’s campaign shows the Morgantown Democrat with a two-digit lead over his opponent.
The survey by Hamilton Campaigns was conducted July 30-Aug. 2 and said Oliverio leads Republican businessman David McKinley of Wheeling by 16 points in the 1st Congressional District in West Virginia.
I find it hard to believe that Oliverio will win by that margin, but what do I know?
Internal polls = not credible. Nate Silver probably has a precise number by which they can be discounted, but my guess is that Oliverio is leading by about the margin of error.
I’ve banned local TV stations on my set until elections are over because honestly the faces…and inane drivel…of McCain, his buffoon opponent JD Hayworth, and that utterly reprehensible madwoman Jan Brewer make my blood pressure go up to heights that could get dangerous.
Living in Arizona has some serious drawbacks during election years!
joe from Lowell
I think this Republican tide is seriously overblown.
Republicans are 2-7 in Congressional races since the first Tea Party rally was held on April 15, 2009.
The show won’t start much until after Labor Day.
At West Virginia Blue, we reached out to the Oliverio campaign and received no reply. Not a single person has shown up to support him at the site. He’ll win. He defeated Mollohan with tactics showing he’d do anything it takes to win.
>I haven’t heard anything from the Oliverio campaign.
It’s nice to know that Martha Coakley’s campaign manager has found work in this tough economy.
I’m with Stuck; the silly season is still on, and noses don’t get back to the grindstone in force until after the calendar page turns.
This doesn’t mean the dog days are entirely void of entertainment, though. I was going through a pile of mail yesterday and found a mailing for one “Joel Pollak for Congress.” I figured that, assuming he got the district boundaries right, he was running against Jan Schakowsky. His mailing went into great detail about his backpacks-for-the-troops project and how people could help out, but nowhere, and I mean nowhere, on the envelope or the flier inside was his party affiliation identified. I thought, “He’s gotta be a Republican.” A quick Google of his
sorry assname confirmed this.
@PeakVT: You can’t really discount internal polls by some set amount or really make a rule about them. After all, candidates have at least as much interest in getting accurate polling as the rest of us.
Normally you don’t trust internal polls because they’re going to be cherry picking which data points they release to the public, whereas other pollsters will release them all. But in this case, I’d give it a fair bit of weight just because there’s no other polls out there. Not a lot of weight because it’s just a single data point, but the conditions for why you distrust internal polls just don’t seem to be there in this case.
Be happy you’re not in California, where Meg Whitman has more money than God to spend on herself. There’s a special election to day for State Senate district 15. The Democrat, John Laird, has been running web ads everywhere, including here. Some third party has been running really obnoxious ads against him, but they never mention his opponent. Since I’m not in the district, I have no idea who that is.
Edit: Laird could be the twin of my doctor.
It will be interesting to see if an extreme DINO will be able to win in WV without the Dem base supporting him.