Here’s Nate Silver on Rasmussen:
Rasmussen Reports didn’t do any of these three things. Its pollsters didn’t provide cogent explanations of why their results were different; the only explanation they offered — that it had to do with their likely voter model —turned out not to hold water. Rasmussen also didn’t “fix” its house effect: it was quite persistent throughout the whole cycle. And their polls did quite poorly, rather than extremely well, on Election Day.
Nor has Rasmussen been any more willing to engage in a discussion about the issues in its polling after the fact. When I asked Scott Rasmussen for comment Friday morning, he wrote me a terse e-mail that said he “can’t imagine any need to respond,” and he has been similarly dismissive with other reporters.
Silver has been methodically showing just how crappy Rasumussen’s polls were this cycle. Reporters are generally innumerate, so Silver’s numbers may not have much of an impact, but Ras’ arrogant non-response might. I’m not hoping for much, but I’d be happy if Rasmussen polls were treated like Republican-sponsored polls in the next cycle.
Kryptik
But, but, but, Rassmussen is the most respected name in political polling, why else would every news outlet use their numbers like gospel truth from God himself?!
El Cid
I agree with this.
But I don’t think it will happen. News organizations will likely treat such conclusions as part of a ‘well, you know, polls often differ’ pattern.
AuldBlackJack
It started with economic policy in the ’80s, then “News” reporting in the 90’s, most recently intelligence gathering as regards foreign policy decision making in the ’00s ….. so why not polling in the ’10s?
“But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy.” The Downing Street Memo.
Villago Delenda Est
I’m not sure if the problem with reporters is that they’re innumerate (although it’s very plausible that they are) so much as that they’re lazy.
Very lazy. Too busy scarfing down tiger shrimp to do any actual, um, reporting. Recycling press releases from corporate entities and passing them off as “news”.
Basilisc
If Rasmussen’s biased polls feed Republican hubris and lead them to misallocate resources, it’s all to the good.
Of course, Dems have to have enough self-confidence and determination to take advantage of Repub overconfidence, quietly work on GOTV in races where they know they have a good chance to win, and not let themselves fall for the snow job.
OK, never mind.
Ross Hershberger
Ras is a consistent outlier if not a lier outright. Reporters will of course seize upon the last thing to cross their desk to ‘report’ on, but if Ras continues to be wildly wrong they’ll eventually lie themselves out of being reported upon.
Bullsmith
This is yet another instance in which Republicans do indeed have their own set of facts. That they’re false doesn’t seem to bother them at all, just long as they’re theirs.
matoko_chan
Look mistermix. The right is disenfranchised from contemporary culture in America. So they made their own; Fox News is DIY media for conservatives.
As the percentage of non-hispanic caucs in the electorate shrinks, from 90% in 1968 to 74% in 2008, the right will become increasingly disenfranchised. in 2012 non-hispanic cauc will be 70 to 72%.
The trend is not going to reverse itself. 2008 was the first year that non-hispanic cauc became a minority in children 5 and under.
Not all caucs are conservative, but all conservatives are pretty much caucasian. Now urban, young, liberal caucasions make up about a third of the demographic. The future is bleak for another conservative presidency ever, unless they begin to attract youth and hispanic voters.
They have given up on the black vote, but the black vote is a cultural bellweather, so that is why they INSIST that the TP is not racist….youth and hispanics wont vote for racists.
btw i had Rasmussen pegged last March.
flounder
I swear I have noticed that a number of news organizations (or at least individual reporters) have been treating Rasmussen as a Republican Outfit that tweaks the numbers for over a year now.
For instance, everyone except the Wash. Times, NY Post, LA Times, etc. has largely stopped reporting the Ras presidential approval ratings because they were so ludicrous.
Mike in NC
Sooner or later FOX News will just outright buy Rasmussen’s operation: a win for both, no doubt.
Cat Lady
In two years we’ve gone from a post-racial society to a post-reality society, so it’s Rasmussen’s world now and we just get to suffer in it.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
As long as everyone – the Democrats, the news media, and voters allow Republicans to invent their own set of facts, we’re in deep trouble.
Just read Bloomberg’s interview during his trip to Hong Kong where he talked about Americans voting in representatives who “can’t read and don’t own passports.” ETA: Hyperbole to be sure, but not that far off the mark with some of the Tea Party folk.
We’re going to get our clocks cleaned globally too if this trend of allowing lies to spread unchallenged within the US continues because everyone outside the US can see the plain truth and act accordingly.
sherifffruitfly
I actually overheard Ras’ real response:
“And we would’ve gotten away with it, if it weren’t for you meddling kids!”
kommrade reproductive vigor
False. See Comment #3. Please stop giving these assholes a pass. I’m a journalist and to say I’m not very good at math at all is the understatement of the year. However, we all regularly do a lot of number crunching.
Because we’ll get fired if we don’t.
And you know what I do if I have make calculations that exceed my mental capacity? I give the old Rolodex a whirl, call up an expert source and get the answer. Not his opinion, mind you, but the results of his calculations. (Which I then run by a second expert source to make sure the first guy isn’t full of shit or huffing glue.)
Sure: “Pollsters Spar Over Data”
A gossip is 900x easier than analysis (see Comment #3).
Anya
@Basilisc: I don’t think it’s a matter of feeding Republican hubris but Ras polls drive the media narrative. When those polls are shown, then it becomes about Dems losing, Obama in trouble; that’s the problem.
MattR
@Anya: Exactly. The ridiculous Hawaii poll was used to drive the narrative about exactly how bad this election cycle was going to be for the Democrats. (ie. If even Hawaii is this close, …)
Can we please get everyone to email this article to Josh over at TPM?
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@kommrade reproductive vigor: Are journalists ever allowed to look at the bigger picture when it comes to politics (i.e., are these people or policies or lies told actually good for America) or is the message from the editors and above “just focus on the horse-race between Dems and Repubs, nothing else matters?”
John Cole
Just like Sarah Palin, Gingrich, and Breitbart have lied themselves out of press coverage.
Southern Beale
OT but here’s an 11-second video of my cat being cute, which I figured the folks here would appreciate.
Villago Delenda Est
@John Cole:
Bingo.
This is about entertainment now, not about relating facts.
Hence the entire Sarah Palin phenomenon.
Ed in NJ
As much as I love Nate and 538, the issue is not only the Rasmussen bias in the numbers, but the selective use of polling. Rasmussen floods the market with right-leaning polls, grouped together to push a narrative. Bad polls are released over the weekend or as one-offs to minimize the impact, and troubling races are not polled at all.
Unfortunately, Rasmussen was calling for a Republican wave and that’s what happened. Only polling geeks like Nate are going to be interested in the individual results and how they compared to other pollsters. When half the country already feels that Rasmussen is the more accurate pollster, you’ve lost the war.
gene108
@matoko_chan: The demographics don’t matter, if the youth vote stays home or the black vote stays home, etc. Couple it with voter suppression tactics and the electoral edge the demographics should give Democrats get depleted.
Also, the demographic shift aren’t spread out evenly across the country. The rise in Latino’s is effecting some states, like North Carolina and few other southern states, but it’s not made its way to Kansas, North Dakota, etc.
Those areas that lack diversity don’t seem to be getting any more diverse. The demographic shift has turned California from a battleground state to a fairly Democratic state, but I don’t see this trend actually playing out in other parts of the country, including swing states like Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is, on average, older than the general population in the country and unlike some place like North Carolina, there doesn’t seem to be a large Latino migration to the rural areas, that consistently vote Republican to switch them to Democratic areas.
Maybe with Presidential elections, the demographic shift will have some effect, but it won’t have as much of an impact on state and local elections across the country, because the impact of these Latino voters isn’t spread out evenly.
Places that are solidly Republican will continue to be solidly Republican, in my opinion and as long as these state each get one House member and two Senators, the Republicans will maintain a disproportionate representation in government versus what the electorate actually wants to government to do.
El Cid
@kommrade reproductive vigor: I. F. Stone once said (I’m pretty sure it was him) that the rule was that in journalism, you don’t print your own opinion. Instead, you find someone who has your opinion, and you print that.
gnomedad
No shit. “Look, a big number!” has become the new “Look, a shiny object!” Scale, goddammit, scale! The top things I can be heard screaming at my teevee, computer, or newspaper are:
1. What’s that per capita?
2. What’s that per year?
3. As a percentage of what?
4. How does that compare to historical values?
Next up, physics: how to confuse energy and power.
Southern Beale
@Villago Delenda Est:
Entertainment, and money of course:
“Political Ads Cash Windfall For TV Stations”
The money keeps rolling in …
MattR
@gnomedad:
To quote my high school physics teacher, “Watt?”
gnomedad
@MattR:
Exactly. Typical “report”: this new wind turbine will produce eleventy-gazillion watts, enough to power a small town for a year!
abscam
@Southern Beale: Love it! Cuuuute kitty!
bemused
@Southern Beale:
Love the little meerow mutter at the end…disgusted “crap, that didn’t work”.
Steeplejack
@Southern Beale:
I was going to say, “Your cat can only be cute for 11 seconds?,” but that was sufficient. She’s a beauty.
Xantar
This post by Nate is actually pretty damning because in the past, Nate was very reluctant to criticize Rasmussen. He noted that they have a house effect and that they appeared to do polling on the cheap, but up until now I don’t remember him outright calling them bad.
arguingwithsignposts
@gene108:
You’re arguing with a wall, dude. Take it from someone who knows.
Davis X. Machina
@gnomedad: There’s a word for it in the industry — the MEGO (My Eyes Glaze Over) factor. Some newsrooms — at least back when there were newsrooms — had editors — back when there were editors — enforce a cap on the number of numbers that could appear in a front-page story.
Davis X. Machina
@arguingwithsignposts: Not fair to walls. They hold stuff up, and you can put windows through them, so light can get in.
arguingwithsignposts
@Davis X. Machina:
fair point. I apologize to walls everywhere.
MattR
It’s pretty self evident, but everyone can use this reminder from Nate every now and again.
Southern Beale
@Steeplejack:
Thank you!!
The funny thing is, she’s been perfecting that maneuver ALL morning long! The first time she did it I thought, “dang I wish I had my camera with me.” Second time she did it I thought, “dang I wish I had my camera with me.”
Third time I thought I’d better get the dang camera already.
LOL.
fasteddie9318
OT, but is there any chance that Evan Bayh could be convinced to spend his retirement climbing into a cannon and being fired straight into a solid brick wall? Helmet optional.
piratedan
so based on the demographic trends with minorities slowly ascending their way into larger voting blocks and the noted way that Republicans are driving the narratives at the state legislature level in staking out safe congressional districts for “their” candidates. It seems to be that we need to devise a plan where Dems start slowly taking over the smaller states, making them untenable to live for Republicans by passing such anethemas as mandates for public schooling and making it easier for unions to thrive. That will force them to flee to places like Indiana. Then we drop in cadres of stealth voters to slowly move in to all of those empty foreclosed farms as a pincer movement, bringing with us such insiduous innocent social trends like bike paths and AYSO soccer and soon, the heartlands will also be ours to kowtow to our socshulist agenda!
kommrade reproductive vigor
@Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people): Full disclosure: I work for a business-to-business publishing company. B2B pubs are the nerds of the reporting world because we HAVE to be accurate. No one is going to pay us for “Wanker X says ABC, but Wanker Y says DEF. The End.”
When we discuss politics it’s more in the nature of “So and so said the result of Rule Y will be X,” then “analysis shows this statement is [true/false].” If it’s true, the story then goes to the impact Rule Y will have on the business and what the reader should do. If the statement is false, and so and so is a Republican (which is usually the case) people can connect their own dots.
@El Cid: Heh. We don’t have that luxury and I don’t think it’s working out too well for publications that think they do.
Hal
If I read only Rasmussen last week, I would have expected Boxer to lose to Fiorina, or at best, win by 1 or 2 points, not 10.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
I’m afraid you have it backwards. Because reporters are innumerate, and because Republicans won the House, therefore Rasmussen was right. For the same reason reporters/pundits still haven’t quite figured out that John Boehner is not in a position to impose Christian Sharia on the country. He won, therefore he is Supreme Leader for the next few news cycles.
Spike
@bemused: Clearly you don’t speak cat. That meow obviously translates to “I meant to do that”.
JGabriel
Ras has always had a significant Republican bias, but they usually tighten their standards in the last 2-4 weeks of an election cycle to maintain their fake reputation for accuracy.
This time they didn’t. I wonder why.
.
JGabriel
@Xantar:
In the past, Nate worked/consulted with Rasmussen. Maybe Nate is more eager to take them on now that he’s not just some blogger, but has the resources of the NY Times behind him.
.
trollhattan
Much like Komrade Karl telling NPR he “had the numbers” foretelling the Republicans keeping both houses of congress on the eve of the 2006 elections, Megs on election eve told das Media Lamestream she had internal polling showing her ahead. Let’s see where the count is today, shall we?
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor/
Say hey, a 12% loss. That’s the same as being ahead, right? If you don’t like the narrative, buy a new one.
roshan
Rachel Maddow explores Right Wing Lying Echo Chamber
matoko_chan
@Ed in NJ: there is no wave. this is backwash wake among the older white christians that once made up 90% of the electorate. the judeochristian nation is not so white or so christian anymore. and the greys are dying off while more youth enter the electorate.
@gene108: youth only turns out for the presidential. Youth was 11% of the voting in 2010 vs 18% in 2008.
@Ed in NJ: no Ras used CHEAP polling. robocalls and landine only polling. Old rural people have landlines. Young urban people dont.
RIGHT NAOW 1 in 4 americans are cell only households. by 2012 it will be 1 in 3.
matoko_chan
@sherifffruitfly:
win.
the media DOESNT talk about the demographic timer, because that means they got no fight to promote.
If the GOP cant attract at least SOME hispanics and a greater share of the youth demographic, they will simply NEVAH win another presidential election.
the media exists to sell product…a blow out is not in their interest.
AuldBlackJack
“We alter reality. You are sold a preconceived narrative.”
One of my favorite Jon Stewart lines.
meepmeep09
You guys are being too hard on ol’ Scotty Rasmussen. If he had released results upsetting to the GOP, no one would be nice to him on the post-election NRO cruise.
Remember what meanies they were toward the dying William F. Buckley on a similar cruise in 2007, after he got into it with Norm Podhoretz about the decaying state of American Conservatism? I’m sure Scotty didn’t want to be tossed off the boat (so to speak) in the same manner.
Jay
Looking at the title of this post, I thought it concerned the latest evisceration of Jamie Kirchick, a man so steep in bullshit he deserves his own mocking tag on this blog.
THE
@matoko_chan:
Absolutely. You and I are in total agreement about this.
The middle class, Catholic, Hispanic right and the GOP, must learn to love each other. They need a historic alliance.
The ethnocentric, flaky TPM, is a dead end for US conservatism. It is a cry of pain, not a rational strategy for gaining power into the future.