Romney is gaining in swing states, he’s outspending Obama there, he beat Obama in July fundraising, and Romney has a load of cash on hand that he can release after the nomination. Spastic tubes alone aren’t going to win this thing, people.
C.R.E.A.M.
by $8 blue check mistermix| 132 Comments
This post is in: C.R.E.A.M.
BrklynLibrul
So why are Cole, et. al, so confident of an Obama win? Seems a little premature to pop the champagne corks.
JPL
MSM will tire of Romney’s lies and journalists will do actual reporting. I see an Obama landslide when voters actually understand Romney’s positions.
hahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahaha…
El Cid
Silver’s broader context:
Elizabelle
Lots of caveats by Nate Silver re the August polling. Electoral college hasn’t changed, and Obama still leads in more swing states (13 to 11; Ohio and Colorado are ties.)
Which might be Ryan’s dead cat bounce. Silver did not adjust for that, as he admits 3 paragraphs down.
mai naem
The Obama people are not done dumping stuff on Romney yet. They did a big dump this spring/early summer. We haven’t seen the end of the tax thing yet. We haven’t seen the stuff on the Olympics’ crony capitalism yet. We haven’t seen a lot of Mormon stuff yet. Massachusetts outsourcing/shredding of records. We haven’t seen much on the Bain Capital company closing in Illinois right now. Romney’s stuff doesn’t stop. There’s probably stuff on Romney’s son who’s in private equity too. Then there’s Paul Ryan and his paper trail.
One last thing – mark my words – Romney’s going to release the 2011 tax return paying quite a bit. If he then loses, he’ll file a corrected one where he would get pay less taking all the dodgy but legal tax write offs.
rikyrah
they haven’t even begun with Willard.
SteveM
I’m most worried about the fact that the GOP may already have Jim Crowed its way to victories in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
cmorenc
The period from Romney’s nomination of his VP and GOP Convention through the start of the Democratic Convention were always the most likely for Romney to make up ground and be an anxiously nervous one for Obama supporters. Recall that in 2008, McCain and Palin went up six or seven points on Obama in the period immediately after the GOP convention.
The time to start feeling some genuine panic is if the week after the Democratic convention, Obama doesn’t come out with a modest but solid lead. Also, remember that NBC/Wall Street (very solid bipartisan outfit) just yesterday released a new poll showing Obama still up by four.
Stop clutching your pearls. Not time or occasion for that yet.
Kane
Is that a quote from Todd Akin?
ruemara
It may be the lack of sleep talking but if the people in swing states are shifting to evil boss/granny starver blue eyes, then this country deserves the fucking wasteland that it will become. Sorry, but I don’t have pearls to clutch. I’ll work on election stuff after I attempt to finish this relocation but frankly, I can’t spend a moment after this election with an ounce of sympathy for the evil and retarded plus the apathetic, lazy mofos who are all to willing to collude in their own disenfranchisement.
jurassicpork
Assclowns of the Week #92: Akin to a Fool edition is up. And if you can’t tell by the title who finished 1-2, then perhaps you belong on this list.
Elizabelle
At top of NYTimes “Politics” webpage.
Headline: Campaign Stops: Has Obama Made the Job Situation Worse?
The facts on job creation do not support the Republican case against the president.
Gosh, a lot of words.
“No” will suffice.
Great link though. Professor Robert McElvaine, with 2 charts that put the lie to Romney-Ryan-Republican claims.
Hill Dweller
@SteveM:
The lack of coverage/outrage from the national press is disgusting.
Napoleon
@Elizabelle:
NPR this morning when repeating Romney’s Medicare lie stated something like “which is largely unsupported by the facts”.
jwb
@El Cid: We’ve also spent the past two weeks or so talking about everything except Romney: first Ryan and now Akin. I think these conversations have been productive with respect to the wider political field, but it does mean that we have been hearing a hell of a lot less from Romney, and I’ve also noted that Romney’s polling goes down as his visibility increases. That correlation should be put to the test with the convention.
Elizabelle
@Hill Dweller:
They have driver’s licenses and even pictures on their press credentials.
Doesn’t everybody?
MattF
@Elizabelle: Also in the NYT, none-other-than-Thomas-Friedman says flatly that Republicans are the problem. Somewhat surprising, given a long history of weaseling on the subject. He still gets a zero in my book, but it’s an indication that the Village is unhappy with Republicans.
japa21
The Obama campaign knew from the beginning that they would be facing a major cash deficit. They had a choice to make, go big early and define Romney or save for later when it may be too late to define Romney.
They chose, correctly in my opinion, to go with the latter. Obama is doing better at this point in the campaign than he was in 2008, McCain/Palin was a better team than Romney/Ryan, so I am not worried at this point in time.
When you look at polls, it is important to look at the crosstabs. Even the NBC/WSJ poll, which shows Obama maintaining the 4 point lead he had the last time they polled, has a smaller percent of ems this time around.
Obama is currently up in MO according to the most recent polls, and that isn’t even considered a swing state.
A long way to go, but I feel pretty good at this point, including the Congressional races. Heck, in IN the Dem candidate and the GOP candidate are tied and nobody has been considering that to be a possible pick up for the Dems.
Hill Dweller
Paul Ryan, purported policy wonk, is bringing back the “clinging to guns” nonsense on the stump.
eric
Just wait for the debates. the rest is filler. People will want to see if Romney can stand toe to toe with Obama. If he can that is a plus for Romney. I also think that the lack of specifics (a Romney trademark) will hurt Romney. So, I put the winner of the race squarely in Romney’s hands. If he has a “that man” moment he is done. If not he has a chance given the disenfranchisement by the GOP all over the place. Wake me when we get there.
Elizabelle
@MattF:
Oooh, link, please.
Don’t read the Mustache anymore, so missed that.
Anya
These polls include Rasmussen. I am sure it inflates the GOP support. I don’t see how can Romney win with his deficit among Latino, women and AA voters. Don’t see a path, even with all the voter suppression tactics.
cervantes
Hmm. I note that Sully has been released from the mockery zone. Does the proprietor care to comment on this? Is it just parole, or is he considered rehabilitated, or what?
MattF
@Elizabelle: Here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/opinion/friedman-we-need-a-conservative-party.html?ref=opinion
Cris (without an H)
This post would be a natural place for the ActBlue link.
You’re confusing the sound of fist-pumping with the sound of cork-popping. Listen: when you’re the Kentucky Wildcats, and you draw the Washington Huskies as your opponent, you know you can beat them, so you pump your fist. Then you practice hard, because you know they can beat you anyway.
Then the game starts, and they keep fucking up and turning the ball over and giving you easy dunks. So you pump your fist each time, and then you keep playing like you know they can still beat you — because they can, and you’ve seen it happen. And when they close the gap with a solid run, you take it seriously — but you know you’re still on top.
Comeback runs are expected. We keep playing strong on defense and strong on offense, but we remain confident that we’re the better squad. Nobody — certainly not John Cole — has ever said “this thing’s in the bag, let’s just kick back and stop working.” There’s no contradiction between “we have to keep working hard” and “we will win this thing.”
Anya
@MattF: So, he gave them two mustaches down? That’s a improvement.
Steve LaBonne
Chill out, people. Rmoney is NOT going to win Ohio (yes, making sure of that will take hard work but yes, the work is being and will be done), and it’s very, very difficult for him to piece together an electoral college majority without it. Don’t freak out over fluctuating polls in the dog days of August, especially when Assmunchin’s finagling is involved.
rikyrah
@SteveM:
I’m worried about Pennsylvania, but hold out hope that the Governor showed his ass by taking away the main justification that the judge gave for approving of that Voter ID Law. So, I’m holding out for that with the PA Supreme Court.
While I don’t like what’s going on in OHio, I trust Kay when she says folks in Ohio know how to get around stuff like that, and I am happy about the increasing civil disobedience by election officials in Ohio.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@jwb:
and if there is any politician capable of blowing their own convention, it’s Romney.
Elizabelle
@MattF:
Thank you. And Friedman does call those in control of the GOP “radicals.”
He also claims Obama is governing from the “center-left.” No centrist, that Obama.
And this sentence makes no sense whatsoever:
WTF Friedman? Maybe his editors can’t stand reading him either.
Now, back to ignoring him.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Elizabelle:
I think he meant to say the GOP should be center right and the Democrats center left, except he let it slip out his deep wish the center right also run the Democrats.
Nicole
I’m more worried than I was last night, after an incredibly frustrating experience with the Board of Elections here in NYC- I filled out a change of address form, and they managed to type in my name incorrectly. I discovered, thanks to a call to both the main phone bank and my local office, that the two offices have two different sets of information- the main bank listed my actual name and old address, and the new fictional person who apparently lives in my apartment. The Manhattan board had my real name listed at two addresses, my old and my new.
The main phone bank lady didn’t want to delete the incorrect name, no matter how often I explained that that person DOESN’T EXIST. She said she’d fax over a correction to the Manhattan office, but couldn’t guarantee it would be corrected in time for the primaries here in September. She also criticized my handwriting, telling me a “vy” looked like a “w.” Neither a “vy” or a “w” appears in the incorrect name. Because I didn’t trust her to do it, I looked up the Manhattan office online and the man there said I was already registered (in two locations) and he would remove the old one. If the fax does get sent, I can only imagine the confusion it will cause. I am already expecting that I will not be permitted to vote in the primaries here.
If this level of idiocy is happening in a state where there are no new restrictions on voting, where all I wanted to do was change my address, I can only imagine what it will be like in the ones with new regulations. No wonder people get discouraged and give up.
Elizabelle
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I thought Friedman was attempting some false equivalency there. As the GOP is in thrall to its radicals, so the Democrats take their direction from their radical left.
Except that the Democrats, uh. Don’t.
They’re pretty centrist.
And you can see that, if you’re not a highly compensated NYTimes columnist. (Looking at you, Mustache and Bobo and even little Bobo.)
wrb
With the Obama campaign producing major scandals that dominate the coverage, like “chains” and “you didn’t build that” what did anyone expect?
SatanicPanic
Let’s not go all GOS here guys. Meg Whitman would like to remind you that campaign $$$ aren’t everything.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Elizabelle:
Yes, sort of like he tried fusing that with the GOP needs to move center left like the Dems. I guess that’s why he is a paid professional lol
wrb
@Nicole:
Vote twice.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
DK’s APR has two polls up, one without Rasmussen and Gallup, and just Rasmussen and Gallup (RG). You can click a link to Huffington Post to see what all combined look like. If you look at everyone but RG, the polls look kind of stable. On the other hand, the RG polls have Romney ahead and Obama heading south. Draw your own conclusions, but the shift toward Romney seems to be in the increasing percentage of Republicans counted under Rasmussen.
eric
fyi the GOS mentioned that the warren PPP poll was the first with likely voter screens. so the movement is in line with a traditional switch to LV from RV
japa21
@wrb: Major scandals. Hardly.
The Dangerman
The War on Women wound just had it’s stitches ripped out; with Ryan and Akin, not only will Romney pay a price, but the House will pay for their non-laser like focus on jobs and their barely hidden agenda on abortion…
…thus, the majority the population that doesn’t have a penis just went “hold on for just a damn second” in the past few days. Let the polls catch up.
ETA: FUCK! In the Digital Dungeon again for the p word; let me OUT!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m not panicking about one poll, as others have said, there is still some Ryan bump in GOP-leaning polls, and Obama hasn’t yet used Romney’s “let the foreclosure process run its course” and other ads about RoboWillard. That said, this isn’t gonna be easy. Scott Brown has pulled ahead of E Warren by 5 points. Again, I’m not panicking about one poll, but Wall St’s preferred candidate leads in MA because he talks about the Red Sox, seems like a nice guy and drinks budweiser, or whatever the regular guy beer is in Boston. American voters are not, on the whole, smart and don’t vote on policy.
Shawn in ShowMe
Every election we get a dead cat bounce after the VP selection and every election year we get chicken little posts from front pagers as if it never happened before. Why? I thought BJ was the reality-based community.
quannlace
I think that can pretty much be the Romney’s campaign slogan.
On MSNBC today, they said Obama had a four point lead over Mittens.
But they’re still poll numbers that say people think Romney ‘s better or would be better for the Economy, which just baffles me.
Dennis SGMM
Seems that most, if not all, of Silver’s polls were taken before Todd Akin became a cause célèbre. I am guardedly hopeful that newer non-Rasmussen swing state polls will show a modest shift back to Obama. Otherwise, we may be fucked.
kd bart
@SatanicPanic:
In this age of Tivo/DVRs, paid ads are not as effective. Most people just forward through them
eric
@Dennis SGMM: we also have not seen the polls after some GOP nut somewhere says that Obama is changing the work/welfare rules to bribe “his people” to vote, because they would be too lazy to do without the bribe. It is coming. Then, it is possible Mitt gets -5% of the AA vote.
Alex S.
@eric:
Good point. I think there will some movement towards the Dems in general because the polarization will make some of these “two-thirds-of-people-unlikely-to-vote-go-for-Obama” more likely to vote. And right now, it’s summer and many of these people just don’t care enough to register in the polls.
However, Scott Brown should not be underestimated. Warren might do better by running against the party, not the man.
kd bart
@Shawn in ShowMe:
Mitt will get his bounce through his convention and then guess what, Obama will get a bounce off of his convention. Happens everytime. Recall Mondale’s one point lead or McCain’s post convention lead. People seem to forget this. Then the debates come and things move again. The way to judge where the rest is is to see where the candidates travel to.
eric
@Alex S.: I think that she will and always should have been. I think that is the one race that Akin really shook up because I think that Warren makes the case that Brown cant stop the crazy train that would deprive women of the right to make choices about their bodies, but she can — not just because she is a woman or pro-choice, but because she is a democrat and republican control of the Senate will mean the end of legal abortions in Mass and all of America. That aint no bull$hit either.
f space that
Living near VA, I see two or three Rmoney, RNC, Crossroads ads for every Obama ad. I don’t recall seeing any Obama related PAC ads either. It really is a constant barrage of Rmoney ads. Just an observation.
RaflW
How ever the Prez election goes (and I most assuredly want it to go Obama. I’m not sure the US could hang together under 4 years of Romney asset-stripping the nation), we have to hang on to the Senate.
So I gave 50 bucks to Claire MacCaskil last night, since the crazy dude’s money bomb fizzled. Join me in doing so at Act Blue if you can.
askew
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
That’s a good point. I kind of expect Romney’s convention to be like Kerry’s 2004 convention, awkward and out of touch with the nominee overshadowed by other speakers. I still cringe thinking about Kerry’s “reporting for duty” nonsense.
Hill Dweller
I’m hoping, perhaps foolishly, that Romney pays a price for the welfare lies. He seems to be basing his entire campaign on that lie(among others) in the last few weeks. They even released a statement this morning taunting Obama for not celebrating the one month anniversary of gutting the work requirement.
gnomedad
As long as Obama wins, it might not be a bad thing if Rmoney takes a state or two via highly visible voter suppression. Might spark some outrage.
Linda Featheringill
Medicare, Medicare, Medicare.
Pew has a poll:
http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/21/medicare-voucher-plan-remains-unpopular/
About halfway down in the article is a section on Medicare Vouchers. Take a look at the chart. People who are currently on Medicare are so against the voucher system, it goes against the usual Republican bias in that group. Nobody else likes it either.
We gotta just keep pushing the Medicare thing, along with the other good stuff.
eric
@Hill Dweller: I think we are getting to the point where the taunts are registering with the MSM. I know that may sound like wishful thinking. But I think they were willing to let romney lie a couple of times, but not the entire time. it is as if they are showboating and the MSM will need to remind them that the MSM makes the rules. (edited for clarity)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Hill Dweller: Joe Scarborough said he was “stunned” by the dishonesty of the welfare ads. No mention of the race-baiting, but consider the source. I haven’t seen anything other than a tut-tut from the MSM, except for Dana Milbank’s B- op/ed (“Governor Romney should stand up to the guy who made this ad”, um… Dana… He’s Mitt Romney, and he approved that ad.) But I am deluged by condemnations of Joe Biden.
Culture of Truth
Like Harrison Ford I’m getting frantic
Like Sting I’m tantric
Like The Graduate I like plastic
My tubes are spastic
Culture of Truth
After working the ref seems to be having an effect, the next move should be to… KEEP WORKING THE REF
Hill Dweller
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Obama effectively broke down the Willard welfare lie in his presser, but I don’t know if that got any play in the MSM.
Tom Q
@Shawn in ShowMe: I heard a pollster years ago say that taking presidential polls during this VP pick/convention period was akin to taking someone’s blood pressure after he’s just run up a steep hill — technically, the reading is “accurate”, but pretending it’s reflective of the overall situation is close to fraud.
I think the obsessive following of polls as if they documented some ongoing footrace is a foolish enterprise to begin with, but, if you must follow polls, years of experience should have taught you by now that the ones taken during this stretch are notoriously useless — someone pointed out Mondale was running even with Reagan; Dole had “caught up” to Clinton at a similar point. The next time national polls will have any bearing on the actual race will be about a week to ten days after the Dem convention, when the fog of this period will have worn off and they’re back to reflecting basics.
As I often do, I recommend people look at Lichtman’s Keys system, which is subtitled “Predictions ithout Polls”, which has consistently picked the correct winner of elections over the last three decades without wavering, and which says Obama is a slam dunk for re-election.
Omnes Omnibus
Stop with all the Chicken Little crap. Donate, talk to people, work for good and against bad candidates, and vote. This is August. August in a presidential election year is always like this? Jesus.
gnomedad
@Culture of Truth:
I’m a Romney girl
In a Romney world
Truth is plastic
Tubes are spastic
Violet
Why is there not a link to donate on this post? Act Blue, the Obama Campaign directly, an Obama SuperPAC…something?
Culture of Truth
Dukakis had a double digit lead. It happens.
eric
@Omnes Omnibus: for democrats, yet it is. It was this way the day before the 2008 election…people wondering about the Bradley effect. Just the way we roll.
Davis X. Machina
@rikyrah:
The organs of the State exist to serve the Party, because the Party, and not the State, is the Vanguard of the Revolution. Come the Revolution, the State in any event is destined to wither away.
Correctly oriented cadres in all arms of the State, including its judicial system, know this.
All power to the soviets of preachers and hedge-fund managers!
quannlace
Oh man, I forgot all about that.
eric
@Davis X. Machina: I would like to subscribe to your newsletter, comrade chairman.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
I registered my concerns yesterday and won’t repeat them here. I still think the fuckers are going to take it. May I please be wrong.
But I will say this: A Romney victory would have much bigger implications than mere GOP vs. Dem policy. It would also be a victory for Rovian ‘create reality’ politics. How many Romney/Ryan voters are voting for specific policies? Not many (the specific policies seldom poll well by themselves).
If it’s proven true that whoever spends the most cash to tell the prettiest, most comforting lies always wins, then what’s the point of democracy? Romney. Must. Lose.
Remember: Firewall Election.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I would suggest that MSNBC get some of the people from that Crossroads ad who are Disappointed ’08 Obama voters to come on and discuss their Disappointment. I suspect they are not the most well-informed of voters.
MattF
Another thing about current polls– the response rate that pollsters are getting these days is less than ten percent. You can wave away low response rate to some extent with the argument that there’s still enough response to cancel out competing biasses– but at less than one in ten, one may legitimately wonder if those who do respond have something specific in common
wiscomom
@Hill Dweller:
I got a call from the Republican Party here in Wisconsin. Live person going through his talking points. Second point was the “Obama has gutted the welfare work requirement” lie. I stopped him, asked am I talking to a real live person? He said yes. I then told him what he had just said was an outright lie and I didn’t appreciate him talking to me and lying. I asked that he take me off his list for phone calls and noted that I was never voting Republican again. He just hung up without another word. Not even goodbye.
wrb
@japa21:
But the teevee peoples say that they are!
Deeply troubling too.
Fortunately with Romney and Ryan running a flawless campaign and having such spotless background, pundits have ample time to help us understand how those dreadful words “chains,” Y’all, and “You didn’t build that” illuminate the black hearts of those who uttered them.
gene108
@Hill Dweller:
The right-wing noise machine has its own counter reality shooting out, so I assume what the President says will be drowned out.
There was a guy from the Heritage Foundation, who helped craft the 1996 law, and he kept going on about how the Federal government overstepped its bounds by letting states set their own standards, since the laws on the books are what they are and prevent states from doing this.
Also, too he really seems to hate poor people getting any assistance what so ever.
An upside in this election is people generally like Obama, while most people don’t like Romney on favorable v. unfavorable comparison. At some point that substantial difference should kick in, with regards to how people vote.
KeithinOhio
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Unfortunatel Jim, I believe you are correct about the electorate. The MSM and mainstream tv shows have turned the American electorate into zombies and vegetables. The fact that Romney is so close in polling to President Obama and he has stated NO clear policy positions is an indictment on the electorate. Granted the Rightwing has a substantial spending advantage and MSM is in the hip pocket of the Rightwing lunitics. The only way PBO gains any seperation is during the debates, which unfortunately, will be manned by Rightwing puppets as moderators.
The RR campaign is billing itself as the Comback Kids, but when you take an honest look at this race PBO is actually the underdog for obvious reasons pigment-wise and cash-wise.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@SteveM: And at least in Ohio, the GOP is honest about the intent (even if they thought it was “off the record”). Let us keep mentioning this statement by the Franklin County GOP Chair and Board of Elections member:
– in an email to The Dispatch. “Let’s be fair and reasonable.”
Yutsano
@Cris (without an H): For reasons only MikeJ and YellowJournalism will understand, I chortled at this analysis.
@Omnes Omnibus: IIRC we were all in this much of a panic in August of 2008 as well. But it’s almost Labour Day and folks will start to clue in.
SatanicPanic
@wrb:
OK, now I know you’re snarking
Linda Featheringill
@Tom Q:
Lichtman’s Keys:
I read Lichtman’s prediction about this race and am comforted. Thanks.
The Ancient Randonneur
Yes. Yes. Yes. But wouldn’t it be more fun to speculate about Tropical Storm Isaac and its current projected path which includes TAMPA. The same Tampa where the GOP will soon be holding a nominating convention. Even the Dick Whisperer wants to know if Jesus hates the GOP! Oh my, could that possibly be true? Jesus hates The Permanent Majority Party?
Violet
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
This should be the starting point for every interaction with a voter who isn’t white. “They are saying they want to keep you from voting. They want to steal your vote. Are you going to let them steal your vote?” Get voters angry and riled up and ready to vote.
quannlace
Hmmm, kinda like the way they can set their own standards for voting requirements. Republicans seem to like that.
wrb
@SatanicPanic:
I find the amount of serious attention given to the charges made over “chains” and “build” so astonishing and obscene I thought thesnark obvious.
There is a real and big scandal, one that should be getting lots of coverage, and that is the flamboyant dishonesty of the charges, but does that get attention?
KeithinOhio
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:
WOW JUDAS!! O_O!! You are scaring the begebees out of me. Your post has some legitimacy. All you say about the Rovian propoganda tactics plus the voter disenfranchisment would have one believe that PBO is on his way out.So this election is going to be BOUGHT after all? PBO and his campaign along with every Dem politician better come out with full guns ablazing after the Conventions cause if they got stuff on Romney/Ryan they better make it known. Looks like that welfare LIE is taking hold in the swing states.
wrb
@The Ancient Randonneur:
But then when the storm misses:- Jesus intervened! Jesus loves Mitt!
Tom Q
@wrb: So, you’ve learned the lesson of The Internet in the Age of Insane Republicans: there is no claim so outrageous that it must be automatically taken as snark, because multitudes will be claiming it in deadly seriousness.
quannlace
It would be fun to see the Hate-Government-Programs/Spending to find themselves in a situation where they desperately need Government assistance, and then bitch that they’re not getting it fast enough.
Culture of Truth
@quannlace: Hate-Government-Programs/Spending to find themselves in a situation where they desperately need Government assistance, and then bitch that they’re not getting it fast enough.
But will they be ‘legitimately’ be in danger or lying to get help?
lamh35
Ryan should be forced to answer this question at every stop!
“KDKA Political Editor Jon Delano asked: “Should ab*ortions to be available to women who are raped?”Ryan opposes ab*ortions in all cases except for when the life of the mother is at stake, which is different from Mitt Romney’s position — Romney would also carve out exceptions for r*ape and in*cest.
“I’m proud of my pro-life record,” Ryan said. “And I stand by my pro-life record in Congress. It’s something I’m proud of. But Mitt Romney is the top of the ticket and Mitt Romney will be president and he will set the policy of the Romney administration.”
“You sponsored legislation that has the language ‘forcible r*ape,’” Delano noted. “What is forcible r*ape as opposed…”
“R*ape is r*ape,” Ryan interrupted. “R*ape is r*ape, period. End of story.”
“So that forcible r*ape language meant nothing to you at the time?” Delano asked.
“R*ape is r*ape and there’s no splitting hairs over r*ape,” Ryan said.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/ryan-refuses-to-explain-forcible-rape-as-dems-attempt-more-akin-izing-of-the-gop-ticket/
Tom Q
@Linda Featheringill: Glad to have eased your mind. I’ll add that I similarly counselled panicked friends of mine about this time four years ago, when, to a man or woman, they believed Sarah Palin was going to put McCain over the top; Lichtman’s sytem predicted asn easy Dem win all the way.
The beauty of his system is, it (like our president, I might add) keeps its eye on the ball — the basics of the election — and dismisses the day-to-day flurry of details, little of which has any actual bearing on election day.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Violet: And you don’t even have to use it just on minorities. They may be saying black, but in this case, as I have been saying to people, what they mean is poor. The problem is that most whites don’t get that to the wealthy, if you are poor, you might as well be black. It’s racism and classism in one charged word.
kd bart
@Tom Q:
The basics of the election are that people don’t really like or trust Mitt Romney all that much. That despite what they think about how he’s handle the economy, people like and trust Obama significantly more.
karen marie
@eric: You know Romney is going to smirk and look/sound completely dishonest but, as they did with Bush, the media will declare him the winner.
I have a distinct memory of the November 2000 debates and was astonished that I and the media had apparently heard two entirely different things.
KeithinOhio
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Idaho I am from Columbus, Ohio. Just shook the President’s hand as he made a campaign stop here in town yesterday. It was terrific. Anyways that email to the Columbus Dispatch is basically where we are at in Ohio. Believe me OFA-Ohio is working feverishly on the ground to fight voter suppression and disenfranchisement. PBO once had a 6pt lead over Robmne here in Ohio, but I guess the spending advantage on adds and that Welfare and Medicare lie is taking hold. PBO has always told us it was going to be a tough re-election effort. There are a lot of wealthy and powerful forces that does not want a Champion for the working and middle classes plus the poor in the Whitehouse.
Culture of Truth
Force him to answer!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@lamh35:
except of course in the conservative view slut rape, isn’t really rape.
Patricia Kayden
Should we despair yet?
I don’t think so. Akin is not going to help The Bot with women, and the Dem convention should lead to a bit of a bounce. Obama should be way down given the economy and unemployment.
Elizabelle
@Patricia Kayden:
Dare we hope that even non-political types can see Republican obstruction for what it is?
Recall: Congress’s approval rating is at an alltime low, miles below Obama’s.
I don’t think that pollsters have ever polled about the incumbent and the economy in these circumstances.
1badbaba3
@Hill Dweller: Mitt Romney has been running for a year, clinched the nomination in April, has more money than God, we’re a week away from Tampa, and “bitter clingy god and guns” gets a regift? What a cheap fucking bastard. Would it hurt you to actually pay a writer to come up with some new material. I mean what are you saving it up for, a car elevator?… Oh, uh..er.. never mind.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@karen marie: Yep, but unintentionally CNN created the greatest bullshit filter: They gave some viewers the ability to indicate their preferences in real time. The networks were unable to work around that.
SatanicPanic
@kd bart: THIS. James Carville can shove it with his “It’s the economy, stupid.” It’s not now and it never was (though it’s good for us that Romney appears to agree with that statement). More like “It’s who I can tolerate having on my TV all the time for the next for years.” Mitt Romney is not that guy.
the fake fake al
Its still August, and the debates are around the corner. That is where the country is going to see the real Romney, a magic underwear wearing, smarmy, father knows best type, with a nasally voice and a phony countenance. And there are 3 debates, I see a puddle of flop sweat under Romney by the 2nd and 3rd debate. The country has yet to meet the guy, he’s been playing mostly to wingers (cept that NAACP gig) and he is already showing cracks. He has spent his life in a bubble of Mormonism and Wealth, none of which prepares you for the fish bowl of Oct and Nov of a Presidential election. As much as his campaign wants to keep Romney in the closet, he will be exposed sooner or later. I hope.
gogol's wife
@Tom Q:
One of the few things that comforts me now is remembering how I sobbed when I brought in the New York Times the day after Palin’s speech at the convention, and read the headline, something like “Palin electrifies crowd at convention.” I was so sure it was all over right then, and she scared the heck out of me (still does).
AliceBlue
Remember Rachel Maddow’s “Talk Me Down” segments four years ago? God, that got so annoying I had to quit watching.
karen marie
@Linda Featheringill: With the added punch that many people on Medicare are on Medicaid. Even if they don’t get rolled into Medicare voucher, they’re going to lose their Medicaid coverage.
danimal
Mark my words: the GOP convention will be a disaster. This group can’t stay on message, they all think they know it all and their leader is going to be hunkered down in a bunker, afraid of a little hurricane. The fuster of cluck will be stupendous.
Romney may be the first nominee with a negative bounce coming out of his convention.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Violet: Thank you. That was kind of my point. It seems self evident. And emphasize, perhaps, tat the man who said this is a close advisor to Fox News Personality John Kasich (aka current Governor of OH) who is a featured speaker at the GOP convention. So this is hardly a fringe view.
Tom Q
@SatanicPanic: I’ll disagree with this somewhat, again referencing Lichtman. The economy is frequently a strong factor in whether a party holds onto the White House. However, two things to clarify:
1) It’s not the ONLY factor. Bush I had a sluggish economy working against him, but he also had a drab personality, an achievement-less administration, a dynamic opponent, and a serious third-party challenger, all of which indicated dissatisfaction with him that went beyond the numbers out of the Labor Dept.
2) Feelings about the economy are not, contrary to pundit belief, wholly based on the unemployment rate. Two of the greatest landslides in the 20th century — 1936 and 1984 — came in times of very high unemployment. The key factor was the direction of the economy — FDR had taken unemployment down from 25 to 16%, and Reagan had seen a number over 10% fall to about 7.5%.
Obama has had a similar, though not quite as strong, trajectory: he, too, topped out over 10%, and is now down to the low 8’s. The economy is obviously not booming (as it did for Reagan in the final year), but we’re not in recession, either, and jobs continue to be added even in the weakest months. Reporting continues to emphasize the bad (the month we only added 88,000 jobs, you’d have thought from coverage we’d lost half a million), but the current situation is not “things totally suck”, which is what Romney needed to run entirely on the economy, against a president whose other characteristics (charisma, major domestic and foreign policy achievements) make him a solid candidate for re-election.
Linda Featheringill
@gogol’s wife: #101
[Hug]
On the day after the election in 2008, I went to bed early and slept all the way through the night, for the first time in a long time. It was very nice.
wrb
@SatanicPanic:
Around here it ONLY is the economy. It is nothing else.
If Dems are smart enough to use it Ryan has brought a huge gift, maybe bigger than the others.
He’s the face of the obstructionists in the House who kept the economy in the tank On Purpose. That is ugly. It makes people very angry. He led the effort that nearly caused default and did cause the credit downgrade. He’s on tape saying that actual default wouldn’t hurt the economy. They put him foreword as their economic brain.
Republicans keep repeating that business aren’t hiring because of “uncertainty.” Turn that around. Businesses aren’t hiring because of too much certainty, certainty that the economy won’t improve as long as the House is is controlled by a party determined to prevent it from improving.
I think Democrats have been hesitant to use this because it implies that Obama doesn’t have magic powers. He doesn’t. Get over it. That only lets Republicans get away with what they did.
It their big vulnerability. A giant pustule on their face that needs lancing and excavation.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): You’re absolutely correct. “Urban” is the new code word for “lesser class” which includes poor, of color, of an unapproved faith, and in certain cases, of unapproved sexual orientation.
karen marie
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): That was 2004, I’m referring to 2000. I don’t remember real time response technology then.
Davis X. Machina
@wrb
Taken to heart, this would cut traffic on the US side of the internet by 20% overnight.
SatanicPanic
@Tom Q:
This is a good point. I hear wingnuts ranting about “Americans care about jobs!” which is true, except that most Americans do have jobs. I don’t want to be all IGMFY, but I’ve never had a lengthy experience with being unemployed. Jobs are important, but it’s not my personal highest priority, and I’m sure I’m not alone in that.
This goes for the “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” Uh, actually yes. Late summer/fall of 2008 was scary.
SatanicPanic
@wrb: Maybe I should clarify. The economy is not an invisible hand that determines elections. The economy can suck terribly but a presidential candidate needs to be able to present a plausible alternative and have voters believe that the guy presenting it is the right guy to implement it. You need even more credibility to pull off “he didn’t fix it as fast he could have.” In the end it comes back to personality- are people going to buy this argument from Romney? I doubt it. And like you said, the Democrats can hammer him on what Congress has been doing, if they so choose.
Valdivia
I saw this am that Romney said in an interview with CNN that Obama had less money in the bank because he didn’t know how to use money, i.e. those people don’t how to manage it.
Maybe if Obama was getting 10 million dollar checks every month he would also have a 62 million cash advantage. But that aside, I think Obama is spending the money on the ground (infrastructure that lasts) instead of the shiny ads that Romney thinks will buy him the election. Has anyone done a state by state look at how many offices Romney has vis a vis Obama?
wrb
I hear more concern about foreclosures, business failures, suicides and the loss of savings and the of the prospect of retirement or of sending ones children to college.
Many people who still have some sort of job have nonetheless lost everything due to the real estate crash.
SatanicPanic
@wrb: For me, healthcare is the big one. I don’t want to work my butt off just to end up broke later.
Mnemosyne
@wrb:
Obama has been running ads with the tagline “Romney’s not the solution, he’s part of the problem.” Where is this “reluctance” you’re claiming?
Mnemosyne
Also, too, some of this panic is reminding me a whole lot of 2008 when lots of commentators (and commenters) insisted that Obama had to do everything they wanted NOW NOW NOW and it turned out that the campaign was holding back until the attack would be most effective. I have no problem at all with the campaign letting this whole controversy build until the moment is right for them to shove in the stiletto.
Or, you know …
grandpa john
@SatanicPanic: Now I know there are a lot of low information, not too bright voters out there, but surely we can make the argument to them that 2 of the people who helped create the financial mess we are in are NOT the best choices to find solutions to the problem.
KeithinOhio
@Tom Q:
Tom Q. I get your point with your Lichtman Keys, but unfortunately his keys do not take into account the Citzen’s United ruling and voter suppression. If Romney is elected we will wish for the Bush days again believe me. GOD FORBID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Origuy
Remember this, from four years ago?
wrb
@Mnemosyne:
I love that line.
The reluctance to which I was referring is a reluctance to really focus on House obstruction as
cause of the continuing recession.
Such a focus could be spun as Obama whining, blaming others for his failure to pass additional stimulus, since he does, after all, have magic powers.
So the Rs get away with running these sorrowful ads about how Obama had his chance and failed- all by his lonesome.
Catsy
With changes mostly within the margin of error, and in any event far below what should’ve been expected for his VP announcement bump.
On ads which pretty much everyone is sick of and tuning out, not on the ground game and GOTV efforts that really matter.
And is spending it foolishly.
Which he is likely to continue spending foolishly on attack ads rather than GOTV.
Come on, it’s too early in the day for this kind of mindless and groundless alarmism. Any time you find yourself getting suckered into this kind of thinking, go and walk through the electoral math and have a good hard think about it before posting.
artem1s
@wiscomom:
Ah yes, push polling. seems that these are being used more and more. They don’t really care about your vote, just getting the next new lie out there.
B
@Hill Dweller:
They run the ad because it works. It works on the white working class. They are trying to stir up that old resentment. It is particularly effective on white working class men. And they are not being punished for lying.
xian
@japa21: they’ve also spent a shit-ton on local organizing. Romney is running an air war.
KeithinOhio
Wow I didn’t realize balloon juice had such a high volume of posters. I will have to make this blog one of my new progressive homes.
GKH
Listening to Pandora just now and am seeing Romney ads all the time. The money will reach far. It occurred to me that these may be pay-per-click. If so, I’m happy to spend their money for them by clicking on ads at every chance. It adds up to dollars over time that come out of their fund.
I wonder if a concerted effort to help the right “spend” all their money could reap dividends – or is there too much to even make a dent?
Likewise, I wonder if there is an opportunity to create Super Pacs that solicit funds from fools, then uses those funds in very non-effective ways that “inadvertently” actually undermine their message. Could just use Romney spokes persons comments for content since they don’t know wtf they are saying day-to-day.