A brutal day of state polls for Romney this morning. A reader wrote into say that she thinks that once Romney goes below 20% in that Nate Silver prediction thingy, the right will really start to freak. One-in-five just sounds bad.
My guess is that the rats (Bobo, Joe Scar, etc.) start jumping while the true believers start saying the bad poll numbers are part of a big conspiracy (via):
Does anyone doubt that if it were Romney rather than Obama who led by three points, the creed recited daily on MSNBC would stress the inexact nature of polling and the overwhelming power of conservative millionaires and billionaires?
Should be interesting. Perception matters in politics and if the perception is that Romney’s a can’t-win loser, it makes it harder for him to come back.
Time and again I’ve seen MSM pundits explain how it’s their duty to prop up the underdog as an election that is not a horserace is bad for democracy (as in a crapy candidate getting clobbered does not allow them to pretend to be serving a democratic society).
I hate them soooo much!
The first debate is his last and only hope and it’s still nine days away. If he somehow has an amazing first debate and schools Obama, then he might have a prayer of the polls turning around. A draw, a poor showing, or a memorable gaffe in an otherwise okay or good debate will seal the deal.
But, according to Political Observer, Reagan was 8 points down on Carter and yet was able to win.
UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!
The Other Chuck
Ah but you see it *is* a big conspiracy. The biggest one of all: the American public has all gotten together and decided to not vote for Romney.
I think it was on the story linked below about Mitt’s statement about the windows. At any rate, it was on a page from the LA Times and it was about Romney so the other links on the page included a live link to the LA Times’ own electoral map with “swing states” and “leaning” states all nicely laid out for you. I noticed that when you clicked on the “swing state” information you got really dated polls–like from February (!) or May (!) all of which showed Romney either up a point or tied with Obama. It was incredibly weird–they are polling this race literally every day and yet the LA Times has clearly made the decision not to upgrade their map for fear of ticking off Republicans with the actual information about the battleground states.
Obama is at 95.6% in Nates nowcast. Romney needs something big to change that.
Get your Free Bacon! Free Bacon over here!
I forgot all about that particular wingnut welfare site. Even memeorandum never gives it a link, and memeorandum think Col Mustard of Legal Insurrection is the voice of this generation.
Oh please. That person hasn’t been paying ANY attention. If Obama were polling below Romney, you wouldn’t even be able to HEAR MSNBC over the battle royale between the O-bots and the Firebaggers.
The Other Chuck
@aimai: I think it’s simpler than that: gotta sell the horse race narrative all the way to the finish line.
Fucking planes, how do they work?
It will turn into the political equivalent of the nightmare trip out on some sketchy synthetic drug.
Ideological political bath salts for the 27 percent.
Wish them well, our safety may depend on it.
Yeah, but about as many people read the LA Times as the Free Bacon. That was seriously the first time I’ve followed a link there in about two years.
No Romney fortune gets out alive.
For me the most fun part of this is that as the big money deserts Mitt for the downticket races, he’ll have no choice but to dip into his personal funds, something he swore he wouldn’t do this go-round.
“UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!”
UNLIMITED CORPORATE CRASH!?
Villago Delenda Est
What will be dramatic on election night is how far Obama’s coattails extend.
If the Dems take back the House, my Schadenfreude meter will fuckin’ explode like a supernova.
@The Other Chuck:
A lot of the media on the right has switched to “Republicans in disarray” and “How will Romney hurt the downticket races?”. Maybe the LA Times hasn’t switched yet, but it’s happening. People are already post-mortem-ing Romney’s campaign and it’s not even October yet.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
If Obama wins (knocks on wood) there is going to be a major freak-out on the right. They are going to freak out on everyone and everything. The right will insist the election was stolen through voter fraud. The teabaggers will blame the David Brooks’ of the world and David Brooks will blame the teabaggers. FOX News is going to lose it’s shit. O’Reilly may keep his wits about him but Sean Hannity is going to spontaneously combust. Hannity will bring up Reverend Wright and Bill Ayers on election night as he recounts all the reasons why Obama should have never been elected in the first place. It will be less than 24 hours before the first plans to impeach the President will be voiced.
If you think the last four years have been nuts, you haven’t seen nothing yet.
I don’t think the polls are that brutal for Romney – I want Obama to carry Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, Arizona and Texas and Romney is still leading in all of those states. I think the goalposts should be moved.
Two days ago, there was a poll from a republican-leaning firm that showed Obama behind in Arizona by just three points. Naturally, since the race moves in Obama’s favor, the swing states change. The media still insists on calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania swing states, but maybe they should set their eyes on Arizona, Missouri and, once again, Indiana.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
@The Other Chuck: two words “activist voters”
Did you for vote for these voters? I certainly didn’t!
@? Martin: Sex scandal I’m telling you. It is the ONLY thing that could humanize Mitt at this point. It might not help him win but it would be worth a few points at least.
The Other Chuck
@Comrade Jake: Never mind the whole pressurization thing … this guy thinks that the right thing to do in a fire is to _open a fucking window and feed it more oxygen_.
This guy is too stupid for business, let alone the presidency. He’s a walking avatar of the Peter Principle. In a just world, he’d also be a Darwin Award winner. I get it, people get a scare, they say dumb things — the big question is, will Mitt ever admit to saying anything dumb? My guess is he’ll simply deny saying it altogether.
@jl: Don’t eat my face, bro.
@Comrade Jake: Bless his heart.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
I’ve mused on this before but Rmoney could be entering Dole territory here, ie., getting 40% of the popular vote. Another BJ commenter suggested that the Repup floor was probably around 43-44%, could be, but it makes no difference really. If Rmoney gets anywhere 44% or below, it’s a landslide.
Which means nothing, nothing unless we get a majority, no matter how slim, in the House and Senate. Otherwise, Repups in control of whatever side of the Capitol they get will continue to Do. Nothing. and go “mandate, shmandate.”
Villago Delenda Est
@The Other Chuck:
He’s also never seen Goldfinger.
The stupid of Mittens. It BURNS!
I’m with you there. I think I saw something that said Arizona is more in play than people think. Texas should be, but Dems are just a terrible party and organization sucks. Maybe Georgia could turn.
@beltane: I’m not sure learning that Mitt is a sex robot is going to help him with demographics he hasn’t already captured.
@Villago Delenda Est: Mitt’s coattails are where he stores his gold bars. Weighty.
Can you imagine Ann Romney’s face being any more brittle than it already is? It would be so brittle it would almost snap in two as she stood by him at his “I’ve been let down by my p3nis” press conference.
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
Nah. McCain won 47% of the vote with the Palinocalypse running alongside him and the collapse of the financial system. Unfortunately I suspect Romney’s going to get at least that, and that his floor isn’t too much lower really.
@? Martin: And the Now-cast is more reliable; Nate put a bunch of things in his forecast model that are a bit dubious (the adjustment for a convention bounce comes to mind). The now-cast is basically polling averages with adjustments for house leans for the different polling companies and that’s about it.
@Villago Delenda Est:
That movie doesn’t end well for the Romney-character, maybe that’s why.
@Violet: Anything that pisses Ann off is A-okay by me. I do not care for that person.
@The Other Chuck:
Opening the window might make it breezy too.
@Violet: Indeed. And Montana and the Dakotas are not completely out of reach if we are truly headed for a landslide. Obama carrying or coming very close in those states would really really help down-ballot.
@Comrade Jake: 45.7, please! That’s what McCain got. And since every non-incumbent election in the last few decades has been within 2 points, that 7-point win was a shellacking.
Don’t care. It’s got nothing to do with reality or the accuracy of the polls.
From what I understand, some voting is already taking place in some states. Hopefully, many of these people were convinced and will be convinced to vote for Obama.
True, Glenn Reynolds never was a swing voter.
Silleeeez don’t you know the polls are skewed by the LIEberal Lamestream media! That’s the new word from Republicans who are embracing this polling alternate reality founded by Dean Chambers at unskewedpolls.com. And I’m sure the New York Times will offer this guy a column to offer “balance” to Nate Silver’s work.
Seriously, when Obama wins the nutballs in the Flea Bag party are gonna be even more convinced that the Kenyan Muslim usurper stole the election. They just won’t be happy until there’s a revolution.
Romney is toast. His credibility is toast, and Americans don’t elect POTUS’s without credibility. Anything can happen in a crazy world, but the wingnuts have slung so much absurd shit against the wall, it would take something extra special as a surprise for him to come back.
I knew this guy was a bad candidate, but has gone well past any expectations of fail, as just an embarrassment for all concerned. While I think Obama will win, it won’t be in a landslide, idon’think. regardless. But the real damage Romney has done to the GOP fortunes this cycle, is to seemingly put the senate out of reach for them, and possibly lose the House as well. But we still have the debates and 2 months of campaigning left. Romney could fuck so many chickens, the GOP is turned out of office in droves and we could see both a virulent republican civil war as well as a large pol shift. It is not out of the realm.
I get the argument, but two things: Romney is a much, much worse candidate than McCain (I know, right?) and Obama is now a known quantity that a clear majority of people like personally and who hasn’t borne most of the blame for the recession (even now more people blame Bush and the GOP.)
I’d favorably compare Ryan to Palin, but Ryan’s kind of vanished the last few weeks, hasn’t he? Weird, I heard tell he was the one who would put the Kenyan soshulist in his place with numbers and facts.
When Obama is up by double digits in FL and OH I will feel confident. Until then, I worry. My true hope is that Mitt’s 47% comment made large portions of the electorate aware of the contempt that he (and most of the movers and shakers in the modern GOP) has for them. When I’m confident of an Obama victory, I’ll start the wish list (win IN and MO, maximize a senate lead, dare I think of re-taking the House).
I can’t see how anyone who isn’t wealthy or racist could support today’s Republican party (I exclude single issue voters such as anti-abortion voters – at least I can understand why they would vote that way).
The long game that is voter surpression:
I guess Mitt does not know that there is not much of oxygen at 35000 feet (typical cruise altitude for today’s jets). Plus, it is fucking cold at that temperature. Plus, the whole pressurization thingy.
You roll down the window, you will be sucked out without parachute if you are not strapped down. If you are somehow still inside the plane, the lack of oxygen is a big problem. Even if you survive that somehow, the cold temperature will surely kill you.
If this is not a lame attempt at humor, then he should be institutionalized.
Wait. At this Dems are quite good – but there are structural and cultural issues at work in Texas that don’t exist in other areas. Once minorities there believe that have a shot at power, they’ll jump at it. Success begets success, and Texas has successfully suppressed Latino efforts outside of specific areas that there’s no real belief that their votes will matter.
@patroclus: End of August GOS story on Republicans pulling money out of New Mexico to shore up North Dakota race. If it needs shoring up, it’s winnable.
Last election, they tried to pull another Dan Quayle. This election, they actually bumped him up to top spot on the ticket.
What a stupid bunch of motherfuckers.
@Dexter: Do we know for sure that if you have enough money, you can’t buy natural oxygen/perfect cabin pressure with the windows open at 35,000 feet? Maybe we’re looking at this from the narrow perception of the filthy, reeking underclass, not cutting Mitt a proper break. (Is joke!)
Christ on a crutch…he really fucking said that!
Personally, I think explosive decompression at 30,000 feet is one of the most entertainingly lethal experiences that any adventurous person could try out. Mittens should definitely go for it. It really worked out well for Payne Stewart…
i’m still getting the “Wait and See what happens on election day” from wingers I know. These are the same types who went on about the Bradley Effect in 2008. I called one of them Baghdad Bob and he got super upset because he had family that served over in Iraq and it was insensitive to bring it up. So then I made fun of his victim status for a spell. Good times.
This is very good, but it would be far better if this was the current polling snapshot as of October 24th. Unless, of course Romney/Ryan’s prospects at that time have truly collapsed into 1964/1984 level blowout territory, and terrified incumbent Republicans are running down the street in panic, trying to outrun the approaching tidal wave, desperate to find some kind of high ground or water-tight shelter before they helplessly drown under a raging, crushing, powerfully churning wall of water.
@Comrade Jake: i am not sure. Johnson has gotten on the ballot in almost every state. I could imagine disappointed GOP voters switching to him.
Enhanced Mooching Techniques
You do realize the sex scandal would most likely be with a hair dryer.
@Villago Delenda Est: My nirvana – Dems all the way in all three branches with fucking filibuster-proof majority in both the houses.
Oh, no, he made an appearance on Friday at the AARP gathering in New Orleans and got booed. He doesn’t do well when they let him out of his cage.
I don’t think you can pin that on Romney. The thing that really swung the Senate in the Democrats’ favor was that the teabaggers got their way again and nominated a bunch of extremist candidates. For example, Missouri would be close to a lock if they had nominated somebody who was less crazy than Todd Akin. The Republicans would love to believe that their problem starts and ends with Romney, but most of their problems- including Romney- ultimately reflect the Republican base.
@Violet: recent poll for Georgia and Arizona show it within single digits… Nothing from South Carolina recently, but it was single digits there a while back too. Not much out of Indiana either, lately, I wouldn’t be surprised to see if it was trending like the other states in the region.
Texas is most interesting to me. I think the only way Texas flips is if Romney just crashes and burns in the debate(s). I think that’s entirely possible, he’s the challenger rather than the frontrunner, and he’s one on one.
How dare anyone or anything deprive Ann of her air! Why, the very laws of physics and chemistry should recognize her as a superior being, and suspend themselves so that she can stop coughing and choking on smoke like some common peon.
I think this is debatable. I can see the argument that he’s worse, but not by a whole lot. I think McCain’s Lehman moment was actually quite a bit worse than anything Romney’s done, because it shattered any notion that McCain could lead.
Plus, the McCain/Palin combo was quite a bit worse than Romney/Ryan. I don’t think you really could write anything to convince me otherwise.
Slightly OT, but the base *really* is crumbling for Romney. Maybe Continetti can parse out this information.
Romney losing to Obama amongst NASCAR fans.
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage: Don’t forget. I had drawn my ‘red line’ here long time back. 370+ EV and 10+ PV.
Someone else on a diff thread highlighted this, but it needs to be highligted again: Modern Republicans are living in a complete fantasy world. I mean seroiusly, this is what they’re pushing?
The crack must be really strong in their pipes.
Maybe it’s the drugs, but I’m imagining a news segment where they do a computer simulation of Ann Romney being sucked out of an airplane window.
Look for Mitt’s next Gulfstream purchase to include a request for the windows to roll down.
@Violet: there is a quiet resolve to turn back the wingnutty tide that has taken place in AZ. Carmona is running an ambitious campaign going after ALL the votes, he’s been on the Rez, the Barrios as well as the nursing home/retirement community circuit. As a former Surgeon General he’s got cred, as a SWAT guy and former special forces, he’s got military and NRA cred.
On the Congressional side, the redistricting commission redrew the lines and got rid of the gerrymandered constructs of the GOP Lege. AZ could flip three congressional seats, but its all very low key and its very quietly anti-Mormon, Romney is stepping on his crank as much as Russell Pearce did, he couldn’t even get out of his own primary this time post recall. Will give you three guesses to his religious affilliation.
Even the state Lege Senate is being considered up for grabs based on DKOS local diaries.
The legacy of idiocy has been rampant and a lot of folks are still pissed on how Giffords was treated by the State and the Republicans.
Can’t blame it all on Romney, but a bunch of senate races the nutters were polling well in, went south about the same time as Romney’s poll numbers. And not tea party folks, but people like Tommy Thompson. Though some of it was bad candidates, like Akin in Mo.
@Violet: I disagree only to the extent that, if he bombs the first debate, the media narrative will be “He’ll learn from this experience, and do better in the next debate.” And if he bombs the second debate, it’ll be, “Romney has one more chance to state his case, folks, so he’ll be swinging for the fences next time.” Unless he literally pisses himself, falls off the stage, or stumbles onto the set swigging from a bottle wrapped in a brown paper bag, the press, at the very least, will maintain the narrative of “this isn’t over yet, he could still — ” blah, blah, blah.
I never expected to see a margin like that in my lifetime (I was born a couple years after Mondale’s ignominious defeat). I’d sure be happy if it happened again with a Democrat at the helm. But I always thought the existence of a large, 20% bloc of voters that could swing back and forth was a product of the mid-20th century, when party lines were peculiarly muddled.
And blow out the fire like Superman with his Super-breath (extra credit – If Superman was LDS, would he still need magic undies?).
I’m disappointed that no one has yet pointed out that five to one is actually one in six, not one in five.
@Foxhunter: Michelle at least showed up for a NASCAR event (where she was booed) but can you imagine Ann Romney being anywhere within 25 miles of a racetrack (outside of horses, and perhaps only harness racing at that).
@Foxhunter: dafuq indeed.
And here he is again! http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/paul-ryan-ayn-rand-divorce.php
Further distancing himself from Ayn Rand, Paul Ryan says he no longer would describe programs like Social Security as “collectivist” as he did in a speech before the Randian Atlas Society in 2005.
As long as we’re talking fantasies: I would love to see the Democrats turn Ayn Rand for the Republicans into what Karl Marx (obviously inaccurately) is for the Democrats. Let people know that the GOP gets their ideas about the economy from some kook foreigner who hated God and Jesus and imply that it’s lurking at the heart of anything they propose. Ask GOP candidates to denounce her as a matter of course. Turn ‘Randian’ into an insult.
It would not only be poetic justice and a reasonably accurate attack, it would be what Rand and the objectivists deserve. Utter scum, all of them.
@The Other Chuck:
Which makes the 47% +?% traitors and tahrists.
Yea, I agree with this in general. And linked to an article yesterday from The American Conservative, that describes it in a conservatives words.
@piratedan: That would be a spectacle, indeed.
‘Leave Mittens alooooonnnnnnne!’
…kind of what I envision if she actually *did* show up and was booed. Campaignin’ is hard stuff, you know?
@? Martin: I posted a bit hastily and wasn’t clear. The Democratic party in Texas is a mess and doesn’t have the organization necessary to find, promote, run and support successful candidates. At local levels they do okay and in safe districts there are Democrats. But the organization and skill and reach to mount a successful challenge to a state-wide GOP candidate isn’t there.
By hand cranks because you know you can’t trust electric windows in an emergency.
Down 8 at some point. But not this late in the game. Reagan was already up 3.4 at this point. (see the 538 link)
The only hope for Romney at this point is that the voter suppression efforts keep enough people who want to vote for Obama from being able to vote for Obama.
And a Concord coach for the coachmen (pilot and co-pilot) to sit outside where the hired help belong, as opposed to breathing the same air as the elite inside.
Yeah, you have to wonder if SB 1070 is going to turn into Arizona’s equivalent of Prop 187 here in California. Prop 187 did what it was intended to do in the short run- get the Republican base to the polls- but it did immense long-term damage to the Republican brand with Latino voters. I can easily imagine SB 1070 having the same kind of long-term effect in Arizona.
Come election night and President Obama has carried New Hampshire and Virginia then I will breath easy. but not until then.
If Kal-El were Mormon, his magic underwear would be bright red. And he’d wear it on the outside.
The Other Chuck
I believe the whole “spaghetiffication effect” of people getting sucked through small holes in an aircraft fuselage was pretty well debunked. But if you don’t get the oxygen mask on, you’re suffocating immediately, no way around it.
But hey I guess it would put the fire out. Hey Mitt, want to take a ride on Air Force Three? Made it just for you.
Gulfstream will modify a G5 to have just about any luxury feature you can think of. I personally know of one client who had a special handrail installed in the shower to support his girlfriend so they could have sex. He actually gave her weight and height info to the engineers.
I do not think they would go ahead with roll down windows, though.
He’d rather die than to be without the finely appointed interior someone of his station deserves.
Perhaps the polls should be weighted with the following consideration.
African-American voters should only count for 3/5ths of a vote.
That should make the Fox Nation happy.
@Tonybrown74: It’s interesting that wingnuts like PO see UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH as a good thing. Aren’t they constantly objecting to rich democratic donors like Soros as a corruption of democracy?
Superman was LDS.
We all grew up being indoctrinated as to the power of magic undies!
@Face: It’s Rubin. She’s on another planet.
If there’s a Mondale-scale blowout, it will probably be a sign of a large-scale realignment. It will only happen if/when the remaining centrist Republican voters decide that the party has well and truly left them. That would presumably be followed by some kind of internal realignment, with some subset of the Democratic coalition eventually peeling off and joining the Republican rump to form a new coalition.
@Violet: You were clear the first time. I’m originally a Texan and my folks (Sam Rayburn Democrats) still live there. Texas isn’t going to flip unless there is a landslide because of the reasons you mention. Virtually all of the media there is overwhelmingly right-wing and the R’s hold every institutional advantage you can think of. But more than most, Texans love a winner and hate losers, so if the ex-Governor of Massachusetts continues to slide, I think it’s conceivable that Obama could pull out a flukish win. My Dad delivers Meals-on-Wheels and when I visit, I usually help out, and in the poorer sections of my old hometown, there are TONS of Obama signs.
Yes, but he’d wear them outside his suit.
@The Other Chuck:
Explosive decompression works when you have a window fail (and you can get sucked out of a window if it is large enough)
The whole “spaghettification” thing has supposedly been demonstrated with APFSDS rounds used against tanks or APC’s.
I talked to one tanker in the Marine Corps who said they tried it with three sheep in an Amtrac. They fired off the sabot round and then inspected the Amtrac. Nothing left. They were liquified and carried out the opposite hole.
@dmsilev: I don’t think Willard is the ‘sex machine’ that the Godfather of Soul had in mind.
So that can only mean…the “S” stands for SMITH!
Romney is still within striking distance in all the swing states, and all tied up in the national tracking polls. With Obambi’s gaffes on “change”, on 60 minutes, and the 1998 Obama tape that keeps offering up more and more surprises…anything can happen. Romney’s position is very similar to Reagan’s in 1980.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
Just got this strong image of a computer-generated Ann being sucked out of a jet plane to Chinese narration.
BTW, A-Mad, the Iranian President, is about to meet with Occupy Wall Street. Funny how liberals will throw all their supposed concern about women’s rights and gay rights out the window and go all in with somebody for who women’s rights ends at the end of a whip, and who executes homosexuals, as long as they sufficiently hate America and the West.
That’s a funny way to say “losing”.
The NASCAR fans realize that President Obama saved GM & Mopar. There wouldn’t be any NASCAR with only Ford and Toyota competing. The gear heads understand this.
That would be Ryan losing his house seat.
The Other Chuck
But seriously, don’t modern penetrator rounds pretty much incinerate everything inside with a jet of molten metal?
That is a good article, but I really like one of the comments. The commenter points out that the Republican party has been running on Reagan fumes for a couple of decades, and their tank is now empty. It’s a fantastic description of their situation.
Yeah, but it seems to me that pretty much all the “centrist Republicans” have left the party, just like pretty much all the “racist Democrats” have left theirs. Sure, there’s still a little bit of both demographics left, but 1) they’re negligible at this point and 2) if the last fifty years didn’t make the remaining people leave the party, I don’t see what else it would take.
If we go back to 20% margins, IMO it’ll be due to the growth of nonwhite demographics plus the inability of the Republican Party to detach itself from (or moderate) the Angry White Conservative base.
@? Martin: that’s without the new polls. Silver doesn’t plug them in until the PM.
@Political Observer: LOL
Don’t get overheated. Texas, South Carolina and Arizona are not going to flip for Obama. I remember this kind of talk from ’08. That said, Obama *is* ahead in all the genuine swing states, and the margins are slowly inching up.
Simply put, the margin has to be big enough that if vote suppression or voter ID laws fuck up say, Pennsylvania, Florida, or Colorado, Obama has enough other states in the bag so it doesn’t matter.
The funniest thing would be if Romney’s popular vote percentage ended up being 47%. It’s not that unlikely.
No, strike that — this would be funnier: If Gary Johnson ate into Romney’s slice of the pie enough to cost him some crucial swing states.
They wouldn’t roll down. Push buttons. Cranking a handle is for the little people.
Ignoring the dumbassery of the opening windows (cabin pressure) thing — IANAS but if you have a fire going you don’t really want a lot of extra oxygen feeding the flames, do you? I always understood that oxygen, fuel and heat were the three necessary ingredients for fire. So, uh, why would you want oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft?
(Yeah, I know, breathing and stuff probably. Well, what the h-e-double hockey sticks are those little yellow masks for, anyhow?)
Just keep on fucking that chicken.
@General Stuck: Interesting article. Thanks for the link.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
Nope. He isn’t.
Brother, seriously: Come to the Way of the Mighty Potato God. Then you’ll no longer need to identify with Mitt Romney to find personal fulfillment!
I’m thinking they really have to start lowering expectations for RMoney in the debates. Something in this realm might do the trick…
I can’t believe how many times I get asked what would be a win in the debates. At this point I feel like if – and only if – R
itchieMoney accidentally lights his podium on fire does the President have a fighting chance.
@Political Observer: I have it from reliable sources that he’s going to offer them UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!
@Political Observer: you really need some new material.
@Political Observer: and as Elvis used to say, if my aunt had nuts she’d be my uncle.
@Political Observer: HAHAHAHAHAHA!! Bravo! This might be your best one yet. Keep ’em coming; I think you have some real potential at this.
IF Romney closes strong, as opposed to his current pathetic campaign.
And IF Romney gets a break (or two), entirely independent of either candidate’s campaigning skills (or lack thereof).
And IF the focus of the election changes.
Then the election will be CLOSE.
And MAYBE, but only MAYBE, Romney will win.
And this is your crushing argument for a Romney victory.
That’s just sad, kid.
Done and done:
@LD50: I disagree; inserting this bit of Halperin here struck me as pretty good comic timing.
Usually I pie trolls, but this one hits just the right balance of dryness and absurdity for me.
@The Other Chuck:
I was going to say that I just learned from Vanity Fair that you don’t actually die from being painted gold, so maybe Goldfinger’s death wasn’t realistic either. You seem to be confirming that.
I have my eye on FL, OH, and VA.
Mitt can win with FL and one of the other two, but not without FL.
The conservatives keep saying that Obama’s lead is only three points in the national polling. That doesn’t matter, though. We don’t elect presidents by the popular vote.
Obama has decent enough leads in the swing states that he has this won. It doesn’t matter if the red states are overwhelmingly pro-Romney.
The entire Romney campaign seems to have been based on the mistaken idea that turning red states really, really red gets you some kind of bonus electoral votes. There has been no move to the Centre. It’s all been about “rallying the base”, which is not a majority in the swing states nor the nation.
Woman says she works for county clerk’s office registering voters, but she’s actually just registering Romney voters. Last I checked this was illegal, at least it is in MY state.
@Face: In her past life, Rubin was writing dispatches from the front for Pravda in the summer and fall of 1941.
#RomneyPlaneFeatures now trending on twitter. A sampling:
Can only turn hard right
automatic pilot navigates directly to Grand Cayman
oxygen for the 53%
On Board Emergency Room
roof rack for dogs
Fact Avoidance Radar
can fly several different directions at once
TSA staff wielding vaginal ultrasound wands
YOUR PILOT Grover Norquist!
free case of Pandertan products
two words: Sun Roof
47% flapping their arms instead of jet engines
no booze, but lots of kool aid
details of Romney airplane features to be released AFTER election
hidden comparments to for hispanic maids, for pete’s sake
Heat seeking missiles for #YouPeople
“Stop it! This is hard!”
@Chris: There is the possibility, however slight, that Romney will be blown out not because he got less than the traditional 45% floor of Republican voters; but because he’s such an asshole that he motivates an additional 10% or so of the eligible electorate to cast a vote.
I remember reading somewhere that Obama’s margin of victory in 2008 in the popular vote was essentially equal to the number of people who voted for the first time in 2008. If OFA can get another five million or so voters to the polls for the first time, especially if those are darker-skinned voters, that could be truly transformative.
Then again, Romney has apparently blown his lead with senior citizens, so maybe he really is just that bad.
Or the opposite posibility which you hint at which is Romney’s voters (ie, the elderly) sit the race out. 2 of his voters sitting is out is as good as flipping one of them.
Always flies at the right height.
PS, actually the tightening among seniors could be not because they are saying they will be voting for Obama in greater numbers but that the voter screen is showing less of them actually turning out to vote.
I’m thinking that the first debate will pretty much seal the deal. Looking back at the Primary debates, the Rombot 2.0 came off as an aloof, sarcastic dick. There is every chance that he will make a gaffe a big as the 10,000 dollar bet, and if he does, the MSM will be on him like sharks on a bloody tuna.
Even if he manages not to pee himself on the stage, getting over the very low bar the MSM will set for him is not going to be any help. The Rombot doesn’t just need to hit a homerun, he needs to hit about four of them in one debate, no way no how that is going to happen.
Typical Fox tawking head: “Why so many fifths?”
Speaking of brutal polls:
We need to get Mississippi. 33% of the state is black. We can do this.
Forum Transmitted Disease
@Chyron HR: how things have changed from the halcyon days of UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH.
That the GOP managed to fuck this up too is no surprise if you think about it; it is the party of inherited wealth and utter incompetence. But I must admit surprise at how little good the UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH has done.
I guess Mitt just is an unlikeable jerk, who gets even more unlikeable with each exposure to the public.
@feebog: I agree. Mitts like te kid who crams for tests. If the test is what he studied, he’s okay. If its not, he’s fucked.
Obamas job is to put Mitt on tilt – to attack him on something or in ways that he’s not prepared for. If Obama can do that, it’s game over. I don’t expect the moderators will throw any curves. If Mitt does poorly, he’ll never recover. Obama will own him in the remaining two. And I think Obama will throw much sharper elbows than he did with McCain.
I have been wondering about this and was even going to e-mail DougJ and ask him to do a post on the general subject. I think Romney is very thin skinned and the right thing may set him off. What could that thing be and would Obama actually do it.
Personally I have begun to wonder if it could be dragging his father George into the discussion and comparing Mitt unfavorabley to some aspect of him.
So a lot of the right wing nuts are arguing a conspiracy that all the major polling outfits (except Rasmussen of course) are undersampling Republicans and oversampling Democrats. Can anyone recommend an article/analysis that takes this conspiracy theory on?
@gibsojj: in 2008, 11% of the white population in Mississippi voted for Obama.
Change 1 in 9 to 1 in 7 and Obama wins.
If President Obama was doing poorly in the polls, the Left would have to accept it. We would try to wish away or explain why he was doing so poorly, but I don’t think we’d be freaking out. Hate to say it, but the Left knows how to lose. Look at Gore and Kerry. Had the shoe been on the Righties’ foot, there would have been threats of violence (especially given how Bush won via the Supreme Court).
I’m glad that Romneybot has been trailing in the polls so badly for so long. Thus, the Right cannot act shocked when he inevitably loses. There’s no way they can ignore poll after poll after poll showing that he’s trailing. I cannot even remember when he was ever leading President Obama.
Game over man. Game over.
“…moderators will throw any curves“? To Mitt? To the President, maybe (who might just hit one out of the park, in any case) – but to Romney, they will probably gingerly tiptoe up with a tee, set the ball on it, and slowly back away, apologizing for getting in his way.
The debates, I think have come out to be Mitt’s Last Chance: as has been noted, the bar will probably be set so low, that tripping on it will be the main danger: and naturally, the RW Media will trumpet anything other than outright pants-pissing as a ROMNEY VICTORY !!; but realistically, the debates will be IT, IMO….
I would be in church first thing November 7th if, on top of the President being reelected, and the Dems keeping the Senate (and hopefully re-taking the House), this were to happen.
Because I would surely believe there is a God!
@Napoleon: “Personally I have begun to wonder if it could be dragging his father George into the discussion and comparing Mitt unfavorabley to some aspect of him.”
Actually, any aspect of him.
The main lesson to take from George Romney’s presidential campaigns is that telling the unvarnished truth does not pay.
The present Romney has interpreted that to telling _any_ truth does not pay. Which is even more unappealing to voters.
But the key thing for Obama to point out is that Romney has been brainwashed by his wingnut compadres into believing in a world that does not exist.
The giant gaffe by George Romney was saying he was subjected to brainwashing by the US govt when he was visiting Vietnam.
That might produce smoke!
@gibsojj: If you get a large enough Hispanic minority to join the Black minority then yes, Mississippi could turn blue. Other than that, I don’t see it.
When I first moved to Charles County, MD over a decade ago, it was heavily Republican. Thankfully, the percentage of Blacks/Hispanics increased to around 40% and Republicans only hold one office now(until we get a chance to vote him out).
I don’t think it’s realistic to assume that Obama can do better in the popular vote than he did last time around with the combination of his inspirational candidacy, the Bush financial meltdown, and the Palin clusterfuck. Romney’s under huge pressure to make the debates a turning point. The only problem is, he’s a so-so debater (Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich both schooled him at different points in the primary debates), and Obama’s main characteristic as a debater is that he’s a cool as a cucumber. No memorable zingers, but he doesn’t screw up and he looks presidential. McCain’s people worked furiously to find ways to get under his skin or make him screw up and they couldn’t do it. And McCain, in my opinion, was a far more skilled debater than Romney.
Nah. Leave that to the PACs – don’t pull family based cheap shots like that. Risk of backfire. IMHO. But I’m sure he’ll think of something.
@KG: I can tell you about the signage, though. I live in a very rural area in between Cinci and Indy and I have seen ONE, just one Romney bumper sticker and NO lawn signs. All the other In GOPpers are there (Pence, Mourdock, et al) but not Romney.
I saw tons more McCain stickers about this time last election.
THis is also funny, in a sudden-flexibility-of-Repub-competency-and-principles sort of way. Obama campaign had twice the staff as Romney last month at same cost.
Suddenly, the sin is being cheap, not paying people and no word is made of how many jobs were respectively created. Whatever the magic CEObot did is done on the highest conservative and economic principles and personifies success.
Nothing we weren’t already aware of here, but drills down further with numbers and is probably new info to the less obsessed.
The Confidence Fairy has lost her confidence in Romney
The Confidence Fairy has lost her confidence in Romney
this reminds me of quayle’s bit about ‘wishing he’d known latin’ at a speech in front of a latin american audience. i’m all bitch, this better be a joke, or so help me god…
Romney is pretty out of it in Ohio at this point. And there is a popular 3rd party candidate on the ballot in VA who could push Romney into the 30s. And FL is not trending in Romney’s way at the moment.
Every day it becomes a longer and longer stretch for Romney to catch up.
@amk: Cravaak is going to lose big to Nolan in MN 8 giving that seat back to D.
Ya kidding? They’re there already.
Was listening to a tiny bit of Dennis Praeger’s show, and it was basically: “The polls are all skewed. Don’t listen to the polls. It’s the media’s fault. Oh, but let me show you THIS poll that has Romeny up 2 points….”
And then he had on a guest who’s new book is another tedious treatise about how the media is hopelessly liberal, but if they were truly centrist, the Republicans would always win.
Hmm. he doesn’t explain then how 2000 and 2004 happened.
No such thing as the Bradley Effect.
But even though the polls look very good, people still gotta vote, and the GOP still gotta try to steal the election.
Oh, and then he, of course, started in on voter laws. Of course, he couldn’t understand what all the hub-bub is about requiring people to have an ID to vote. Then started whining about early voting. And then had the gall to say that it ‘marred the sanctity of Election day.”
Excuse me? You people are willing to trample on people’s constitutional right to vote, and you’re bleating about ‘sanctity?’
@The Other Chuck:Loved the comment below the article:
Another Halocene Human
@Roger Moore: Wouldn’t the GOP need a new pitch for that to happen? Haven’t they peeled off all the Dems they’re going to get with the gods, guns, and gays shtick?
@Comrade Jake: True, but McCain had a history people could look back on & see him as having been reasonable in the past. Also, he had a certain personal charm, at least until he went all grumpy which prolonged association with Palin could certainly do to a person, so people tended to like him. Mitt, not so much.
J R in WVa
My God, Obami … ?
You fucker, eat dirt and die!
And a gaffe? Not likely…
I love the smell of wingnuts wetting themselves. It smells like…..victory!
So now that the election’s in the bag for Obama, what’s the best guess for the atrocities he’ll perpetrate in his second term?
Between murdering women and children with drones and ordering American citizens who haven’t even been accused of a crime to be assassinated, Obama can chalk up plenty of accomplishments in his first term. Illegal warrantless spying on every American’s email and phone call…wiping out the first amendment by signing a bill making nonviolent protests on government property a felony… That’s quite a record.
My guess for Obama’s second term?
The police state in America isn’t 100% up to Soviet standards, so I’m betting Obama puts his weight behind a bill requiring internal passports for all Americans, requiring a nationwide night-time curfew for all Americans, and a hefty new round of anti-drug laws with even more draconian enforcement.
But that’s just the start. As we all know, the U.S. military assumed de facto control of the United States after 9/11, so the real question is: what new abominations will the American military ram through in Obama’s second term? Will they force through a law making criticism of America’s endless unwinnable foreign laws treason? Or will they merely add a surtax to the regular income tax to fund the limitlessly-growing Pentagon budget directly? Or will America’s military take over the drug enforcement operations inside America completely and start making drone strikes on “suspected drug dealers” on American soil?