Who knows that Republicans will do in their crazy primary, but DC pundits way underestimate how much the public hated W. Official Washington liked W and only jumped ship when the public hatred become too intense for them to ignore. The Bush name will be an albatross in national elections for at least the next decade, no matter how many Joejobs Mika and Halperin give Jeb Bush or George P. Bush or Luke Bush or Megan Bush or whoever. Ask yourself this: how would one of Nixon’s brothers or kids have done in the 1984 or 1988 election?
That’s my two cents on Jebmentum.
redshirt
We need another Reagan.
Ronaldus Magnus the Younger
Warren Terra
I repeat myself from the earlier thread: the only people I want to hear demanding a Shrubbery are the Knights Who Say Nih.
SatanicPanic
Jeb will be the Rudy Giuliani of 2015 if he tries to run.
Scott S.
Oh please, don’t tell them. It’s hilarious watching them wank each other over the Mighty Jeb.
reflectionephemeral
As Pres. Bush left office, he had a 28 percent approval rating from independents– and a 75% rating from Republicans,according to Gallup. According to an ABC/WaPo poll, Bush left office with 34% approval from independents, and 68% from Republicans– but 82% from self-professed “conservative Republicans”. Over the course of his presidency, Bush received an average of about 80% approval of “conservative Republicans”.
Because the centrist media has junked the “accuracy” approach to reporting for the “balance between the two sides” model, the truth of Pres. Bush’s massive unpopularity simply cannot penetrate the skulls of the Villagers. They’re almost as adrift as people relying on the UnSkewed Polls guy.
Violet
Aren’t W.’s approval ratings back up to something like 45%? The public is not only stupid but fickle.
I agree, though. I don’t think Jeb will get very far in the primary. Maybe he’d get picked for the VP spot.
Cassidy
So they’re already deciding they want to lose the next big one?
Suffern ACE
Already we talk about 2016. I say we don’t until 2015. Just ignore them. The village pundits want to start the 2016 horse race and we shouldn’t let them. If they want to lead the national conversation, I would let them just talk to themselves for awhile, because the conversation they want to lead is silly.
My 2.667 cents.
Full Metal Wingnut
My fellow Floridian and generally astute political observer (ha!) is convinced that Jeb will win if he runs. And he’s convinced a couple other of my friends. I just have no idea where he gets that idea. He wouldn’t get enough of those precious “independent” votes. And wow, he has a Hispanic wife and speaks Spanish! That really makes my Hispanic ass hot to trot!
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Full Metal Wingnut: Maybe we can start rumors about Jeb being the father of Hispanic children.
Sly
Because Jeb Bush sure was successful the last time he tried to save something that was in a persistent vegetative state.
Villago Delenda Est
@redshirt:
Ron Reagan Jr. is a pretty solid liberal.
So the Rethugs will have to look to another tree to find their savior. Perhaps the adopted Michael Reagan will do?
Butch
I really don’t want to think about 2016 yet, but at least I’m taking comfort that the “front runners” and “rising stars” (Ryan, Rubio, Jindal, et al.) all seem to have serious flaws.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Violet:
(A) W has had the good sense to keep his mouth firmly shut in retirement. People like him better when he goes away and stays away.
(B) The other Republican leaders have been laboring mightily over the last 4 years at making W look good (or at least better) by way of comparison. See: McCain, John and Romney, Mitt for details.
Balconesfault
@Violet: The stupidest thing is that I’ll bet that almost every Republican, when polled, “approves” of Bush … if only as a big FU to Obama and the Dems.
Meanwhile, when you talk to them about Bush’s Presidency, they’re largely now claiming that Bush wasn’t a true conservative, that Bush was just another big government big spender, that his Presidency was NOTHING like a real conservative would do things.
Their ability to juggle mutually contradictory ideas is astounding.
eric
You gotta win the Crazy Primary to run in the general and to win the crazy primary, you gotta speak crazy and speak it all the time. If you dont, someone will and that someone will win the Crazy Primary. John’s glorious WV is about see further proof of teh Crazy. This is the lesson of 2010, 2012, and will be the lesson of 2014 and on….
Amir Khalid
There isn’t a political member of the Bush family named Harry, is there?
gene108
Bush, Jr.’s current favorability rating is north of 40%. Whatever whitewashing of his record/non-stop-unquestioned-assault on President Obama has put him in a more favorable light to many modern day voters.
The sluggish recovery has also made the Bush, Jr. years seem relatively better in comparison.
From a September Bloomberg poll
NY Daily News Link
EDIT: The Bush family name might not be as toxic as we on the Left would like to think.
Villago Delenda Est
@reflectionephemeral:
There’s some money to be made by a grifter from the gullible assclowns of the Village.
Assuming Kkkarl Rove isn’t found at the bottom of a river wearing cement overshoes, he might be the guy to do that.
Brendanyc
wasn’t Miichelle Bachman ahead at this time last time around? oh, no…it was jeb bush!
why do we think that even the Bush family threw their weight behing W rather than Jeb before the first W campaign? i’ve never figured this out. maybe they know something.
The Dangerman
Jeb would get waxxed in any General Election.
Mnemosyne
@Violet:
If they are, I’m guessing it’s because W’s been smart enough to keep his goddamned mouth shut and lay low since he left office. But does anyone even remember that he’s published 2 books in the past 2 years?
Paul in KY
@Full Metal Wingnut: Wife is supposed to be pretty high strung. Sort of a Repub version of Kitty Dukakis.
Also think she does not speak English fluently.
eric
@The Dangerman: true, but he cant get there… this is the Village once again closing its eyes to the Real GOP because they long for the Daddy Party of old.
Mandalay
Ask yourself this: how did one of GHW Bush’s kids do in the 2000 election after daddy was kicked out of office in 1992?
There are a plenty of albatrosses to hang around Jeb’s neck that are far more significant than the family name, and by 2016 it will be a big fat nothingburger.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Amir Khalid: I always wondered where the jokes were about there being a Dick and a Bush in the White House.
Villago Delenda Est
@Balconesfault:
“Conservatism” cannot fail, it can only be failed. Recent politicians who have failed “conservatism” include the deserting coward, the Dark Lord, and the Rmoneytron 3000.
Eric U.
I would like to agree that the public is too smart to elect another Bush, but I thought that after GHWBush left office, and then we got Bush the lesser.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
If Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016 the Republicans willing to run against her will look a whole lot like the underwhelming group that ran against Obama in 2012. Every Republican thinking about running for President will task their exploratory committee with one thing, figuring out if Hillary will run. When/if she commits they will decide that 2016 isn’t there year and we’ll get more Michele Bachmanns and Herman Cains.
If Hillary picks a latino running mate, someone that could be seen a “Presidential” after 8 years then it will be all over for the Republicans as we currently know them.
gene108
@Amir Khalid:
Not that I know of, but Bush, Jr.’s niece (Neil’s daughter), Lauren Bush, married Ralph Lauren’s son.
Her name is now Mrs. Lauren Lauren (though I think she does the hyphenated last name thingy to make it Lauren Bush-Lauren, like that’s going to really break-up the Lauren squared effect).
Cris (without an H)
“Speaks fluent spanish” is to minority voter appeal as “can see Russia from parts of the state” is to foreign policy acumen.
General Stuck
DEmocrats by and large hated W from Iraq on. Second term brought Katrina and the indies jumped ship, then the push to privatize SS and wingnut grannies brought out their waterboards. Before the 2004 election, the fiscal hawks, anti entitlement wizards swallowed some giant elephant turds when Bush and Delay pushed through the Medicare part d drug plan for seniors, that Delay promised would bring a permanent Gop majority, by coopting a portion of the dem base. Well, then came 2006 and Karl Roves math that wiped out any vestige of any kind of GOP majority, near future and present. And Along came 2008, TARP, and Presnit Obama, and the disgraced old guard GOP had nothing, so the tea tard crazies intoxicated the party with their maniacal enthusiasms bringing a gas can with matches to the great debate. Hostages were taken, and Obama freed them one by one, trading pigs in pokes like the debt ceiling deal. They nominate Tom Ripley for president, and fall face first into their own chamber pots, and here we are. With the GOP having tooth picks for leverage, and a clown riot inside the wingnut big top
Ash Can
Jeb Bush: Because the Last President Bush Worked Out SO Well.
Matt McIrvin
They hated his dad almost as much by the time he left office. W still got elected.
Villago Delenda Est
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
The final scene of “Dick” comes to mind.
danimal
Cole, ur doing it rong.
Oh no! The GOP is lining up the big guns for 2016. I’m so nervous, Jeb Bush is testing the waters. We are in such trouble if a major player like Jeb! gets in the race. Please, GOP, don’t throw Jeb! into the
briar patchnomination race. We’re scared of him and his big money and his famous last name. And he married a Hispanic, which will totally decimate our electoral chances. Doom and Despair! We fear a third Bush president. God help us.And don’t let me get started on Santorum, we may as well run from the field and not nominate a candidate.
redshirt
@Villago Delenda Est: Saint Ronald did not bring forth the next generation of Conservative Leadership?
BLASPHEMY!
Search the villages! Scour the streets! Surely there is a pureborn Reagan of sufficient Conservative standing out there to lead us.
The Moar You Know
People hate W. Absolutely hate him. But he may have done us all a favor, in a strange way, by being such a catastrophic fuckup that he may have broken the family’s ability to hold national office for a decade or more.
But I can’t forget this: they have money like nobody else, they have the Village square on their side, and a pet dirty tricks monster that makes Nixon look like the last honest politician. I won’t dismiss their chances; I’ll crawl over broken glass to stop them but realize it may not be enough. The Bushes are dangerous. And they’re not done trying to rule this country.
Violet
@gene108: By 2015, when the primary is in full swing, hopefully the economy will be in better shape.
I think after Daddy Bush had only one term and W. had a disastrous two term presidency that people may be skeptical of extending the dynasty. We like our version of royalty in America but don’t always want to reward them with political offices forever. Better they go off and become philanthropists or something.
I’m much more interested in who the Democrats are going to run. I think Biden is too old, Hillary could be on the edge of being too old and I’d like to see some new, younger folks in the mix.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
@Paul in KY:
Jeb Bush’s wife speaks fluent English.
His daughter Noelle Bush is a junkie.
Punchy
I, for one, would LOVE more bush.
Wait, this is about the former president?
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Mandalay:
I disagree. The GOP ran against Jimmy Carter as teh boogeyman for 20+ years after 1980 and it only stopped working in 1992 because Dems coughed up a DLC center-right candidate. W will be to the GOP what Jimmy Carter was to the Dems until the GOP performs a similar pivot in the direction of moderation. I don’t see that happening in 2016. Maybe that might happen after they lose a third consecutive run for the WH, but not before that.
The Republic of Stupidity
@redshirt:
And what came to mind immediately was The Boys From Brazil…
Cris (without an H)
You know who else spoke fluent Spanish?
soonergrunt (mobIle)
@Amir Khalid: hahaha!
Villago Delenda Est
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
“Black Jimmy Carter”
They’re still invoking Carter’s name, 32 years after he lost his reelection bid.
They won’t give him up, because the Glorious Saint Ronaldus Magnus defeated him.
All hail Ronaldus Magnus!
hildebrand
Just heard this on the AM radio – the wingnuts are freaking out over a potential Obama third term. They are convincing themselves that he plans some kind of major catastrophe that will allow him to seek the necesary emergency power so that he can run again.
I love these people.
ranchandsyrup
The internal war in the Bush family will be interesting to watch over the next cycle. W and Rove are on one side with Rove’s superPACs and will quadruple down on MOAR CONSERVATIVE. Poppy and Bar want to throw their heft and contacts and fundraising behind Jebby and his “moderate” and “bipartisan” stance.
W still has issues about Jeb being the white sheep of the family and the rest of the family hates Rove.
http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/jeb-bush-2012-10/
gene108
@Violet:
But will people perceive it as better?
I just think there are so many factors at work that compound the Crash of ’08, such as job insecurity, along with high food and fuel prices and devalued home prices that the level of improvement needed to restore confidence to a healthy level will not take effect by 2015.
People will still be nervous about the future.
Republican obstructionism will make sure we cannot have a strong sustained recovery.
Violet
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: George P. Bush, Jeb’s son, has started some group to recruit Latino conservative candidates. Maybe it’s only in Texas, not sure. He has filed paperwork to run for a statewide office in Texas. I wonder if he’ll run against Perry. He seems a bit young to run for Governor.
David in NY
Please. Give us at least 30 months. Please.
Also, too:
@hildebrand:
The only guy to actually try that sort of thing was named “Noun-Verb-911.”
Violet
@gene108:
People already perceive it as better, as noted in the polls about the economy during the recent election season. Add to it increased sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday and it shows the consumers’ moods are definitely improved. Residential housing also seems to be on the upswing. In general, yes, I think people already perceive it as better and if things continue, they will continue to see it that way.
Mandalay
@Cris (without an H):
Huh???
Fluency in Spanish will be a huge asset to any candidate (as long as it is not overdone with a look-at-me-I-speak-Spanish! routine, in which case it might backfire).
BGK
I was thinking Nub (as a college friend of mine memorably misnamed him) was going to run in 2012 based on his seeming weight loss. Jeb! really blimped out after he left office, and I was watching his waistline for the “tell.” when he surfaced at a local literacy event he does every year, he was looking noticably thinner, so I thought, “here we go.” He just popped up again, and was looking as bloated as ever.
He and Creosote Cristie are going to have to go halfsies on a “Curves” membership if they have any hope of national elective office.
Also too, he sounded drunk in a recent Florida Public Radio interview.
Culture of Truth
Chris Christie or Bust!
Punchy
Are they too dumb to know that there’s a Amendy in the Consty preventing this very thing? Or are they convinced he’s going to dissolve the document whole hog?
rlrr
@hildebrand:
They said the exact same thing about Clinton…
Cassidy
Hillary won’t run.
MsInformed
@gene108: Only cuz that fuck has kept quiet.
Suffern ACE
@Punchy: And if he does declare a state of emergency and suspend the constitution, why on earth would he bother to risk losing an election? Isn’t the whole advantage of the “I am the state” declaration that you don’t have to worry that the voters will reject your power move?
Violet
@Punchy: They think Obama has already trashed the Constitution, so what would stop him from trying to appoint himself President for Life?
rikyrah
bring on Jeb..
BW AHA HA HA HA HA
rlrr
@Violet:
Why didn’t he simply do that before the last election?
Villago Delenda Est
@David in NY:
True dat, ref noun-verb-911.
In 1988, the Rethugs screamed in vain at the absolute idiocy of their fathers in ramming through the 22nd Amendment, to make sure that the FDR phenomenon would not be repeated.
Why the wingtards think that Obama could engineer a repeal of that amendment in four years, given that he’s, you know, near, baffles me.
SatanicPanic
@hildebrand: Let’s start a petition to repeal the 22nd Amendment.
jl
I don’t have time to read all the comments, so apologies if this is a repeat of something above.
But, I thought this GOP 2016 prez handicapping was some kind of joke. It must be, right? The very idea is ridiculous.
Premature much?
Well, Mornin’ Joe fits the stereotype, though of course I have no idea whether true or not.
I am in, horrors, a cynical mood. So, if you are a corporate media pundit pooh bah, and need to rake in piles of dough for zero work, what to do?
More horse race analysis of nothing, puffs of hot air, of course, even if there is no horse race!
Violet
@rlrr: Oh, heavens. You want to bring logic into this? When we’re talking about wingnut behavior?
Villago Delenda Est
@rlrr:
Logic. Not included in the wingnut tool set.
Cassidy
Google “Obama third term”. It’s a riot.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@The Dangerman:
JebBush would get waxxed in any General Election.FTFY
/sophomoric humor
MsInformed
@gene108: Let’s let the GOP find out.
Mandalay
@Cris (without an H):
We should close this thread. You just won it.
jri
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Anchor Babies!
Judas Escargot, Bringer of Loaves and Fish Sandwiches
@gene108:
Perhaps we should do whatever we can to make it so, then.
“The Bush Deficit”
“Bush’s War in Iraq”
“The Bush Bubble”
“The Bush Financial Collapse of 2008”
“The Bush Recession”
Cassidy
Because it can never be too far.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Violet:
Per CalculatedRisk, construction normally leads the way out of a recession. I think we’re just about there and additionally the GOP is running out of ammunition with which to ratfuck the economy. On this blog we focus a lot on national politics but much of the economic sabotage the Republicans committed over the last 3 years took place at the state and local level with budgetary cutbacks and mass public sector layoffs. They can’t keep going back to that same well over and over again, and as the housing market rebounds it will create demand for increased govt services which will force those state and local budgets to increase at the same time as their tax revenue is rebounding. At this point I think the private sector economy has too much momentum for anybody except the Federal Reserve to put the brakes on the recovery. As long as the Fed doesn’t jack up rates, we should in good shape over the next 4 years.
By 2016, you’ll have to be at least 49 years old to have adult memories of a Republican administration that enjoyed both a good economy and that didn’t take us into a massive clusterfuck of a war. The Dems will have Obama and possibly Bill Clinton as popular ex-presidents to speak for our side, and the GOP will have George W Bush. I’ll take those odds, thank you very much.
Ed Drone
@Suffern ACE:
Wall Street is a casino, and now the electoral process is the track. “Who do you like in the
sixth at Santa AnitaIowa Caucuses?”GAAAAHHH!
I’d say “I bet this goes on forever,” but then I’d be
betting on an inside straightstretching the metaphor.Ed
Steeplejack
@Cris (without an H):
Yes, and “speaks fluent Spanish” usually turns out to be “makes a bumbling effort.” Jeb’s Spanish may be better than that, but in any case “speaks Spanish” is not the sure-fire voter aphrodisiac the Republicans seem to think it is.
jl
@Steeplejack:
I do think the key phrase that describes GOP policy towards Hispanics rolls off the tongue much better in Spanish. So, there is that in favor of speaking Spanish.
IMHO.
Violet
@Steeplejack: Yeah, “speaks fluent Spanish” coupled with forcing native Spanish speakers not to speak Spanish, deporting children of immigrants, and generally belonging to a racist party is not a winning combination.
sparrow
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): My boyfriend has a (now antique) magnet that says:
Bush & Dick:
we’re gonna get screwed!
Ash Can
Unless the GOP undergoes a thorough and radical makeover between now and 2016 and abandons the crazy — which I don’t see happening — I actually think Jeb Bush would have a pretty good shot at getting the GOP nomination. He’d default into it like McCain and Romney did, with the different factions of batshittery unable to unite behind a single candidate and the big donors believing that he’d have the best shot at winning in the general. However, there would be no way for him to avoid Mitt Romney Syndrome — he’d have to straddle the line between sounding too crazy and losing independents, and sounding too sane and losing the GOP base. I think he’d do a better job of it than Romney did because he seems to have the modicum of intelligence that Romney lacked (we’re talking very, very low bar here). Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be the kind of challenge a decent Dem candidate with a decent campaign couldn’t overcome.
@Mandalay: I disagree. As Rosie Perez said in her video, Hispanics don’t avoid Republicans because they’re too Anglo. They avoid them because their policies suck.
handsmile
Only 21 days ago, the Village punditocracy was definitively exposed to be a nestful of ninnies, braying charlatans and rogues. Yet rather than stuffing crow or humble pie into their maws, here they are banging their spoons about an election more than three years away: today Jeb Bush, last week Rubio, and ooh look, that nice Chris Christie has a 72% approval rating! At what point does what these frauds pull from their asses cease to hold interest?
Brad deLong had a great post the other day, “Hope for a New and Very Different Political Press Corps,” that begins: The old political journalism was one based on the active pursuit of misinformation.”
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/hope-for-a-new-and-very-different-political-press-corps.html#more
Shameless as they are, the Village pundits are not going away, but do we have to keep rewarding their abject failure by considering what they do worthy of attention?
And I think there is something more insidious about all this schoolyard gossip among the Village kewl-kidz about 2016: a refusal to acknowledge and legitimize President Obama’s re-election and the daunting problems confronting his second-term administration.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Balconesfault: well, if you want to split hairs, w really wasn’t a true conservative, and did spend a massive amount
Culture of Truth
yo parlo fluento espanolo
Culture of Truth
Don’t you mean split heirs?
Cassidy
@Ash Can: Nope. Jeb will smooth talk just like his brother, be the guy you want to have a beer with and politely not comment on the wingnut batshittery. He’ll win the Primary because of the money guys you mention and then all the good little conservatives, no matter how fucked in the head, will fall in line and vote just like they did this year.
Brachiator
Hating W is not the same thing as hating all Bushes. Ya know, in the same way that loving Bill Clinton did not mean that Hillary Clinton was instantly embraced in the same way.
Jeb might have had a little Dubya taint had he served in the Bush Administration. But he didn’t. He had his own career and fired up evangelicals.
Anyone claiming that the Bush brand has become inherently tainted because of Dubya is just making shit up on a slow news day.
Mandalay
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:
And is wife is a smuggler, and his son is a violent drunk.
Bush family values at work!
http://austin.ynn.com/content/headlines/145710/affidavit-says-john-bush-pushed-officer
http://www.sptimes.com/News/62299/State/Gov_Bush_says_his_wif.shtml
Full Metal Wingnut
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: I smell a push poll! It would be poetic justice! Karma!
Another Halocene Human
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): You don’t remember “Lesbians against Bush”? The anti-war protestors in Boston also brought in Powell, although I can’t recall if it was more clever than “Dick! Bush! Colon! Hehe hehe hehe.”
Smiling Mortician
@Sly: This is awesome. Thank you.
Another Halocene Human
@General Stuck:
golf clap
Violet
@Cassidy: I don’t think Jeb has the “guy you want to have a beer with” thing down as much as W. did. Shrub has enough of the good ol’ boy about him that people went right for the “have a beer with” thing. Jeb is a bit more removed.
Mandalay
@Brachiator:
This.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Culture of Truth: Zing! I reallly hope Rubio is nominated. Guy’s about as smart as my midnight dump after I get home from White Castle. Also, I love how the media talks about Hispanics like they’re one big monolithic group. Mexicans, Cubans, Guatemalans, Venezuelans, etc. There are plenty of young Cubans like me who do not give one iota of a fuck that Rubio is Cuban, and any non-Cuban Hispanic doesn’t give a flying fuck.
Cassidy
@Violet: He’s been building himself as the “voice of reason” this past election cycle. He may come off as more snobbish than W, but it’s a coastal Florida snobbery. It’ll remind them of Miami Vice and how cool Don Johnson looked.
Dan
I don’t know if the Republican base would be willing to support such an establishment candidate again after McCain and Romney. If he can raise enough money, I like Santorum to win this. (At this time 8 years ago, I was sure that Rudy and Hillary were locks for the nominations, so what do I know…)
Another Halocene Human
@The Moar You Know: and a pet dirty tricks monster that makes Nixon look like the last honest politician.
Oh, get off it. When you look at the Bush crew, it’s like it’s all the same guys. Shrub loved him some Nixon alumni.
While we’re sitting around rehabilitating Nixon because he passed some forwardthinking legislation in between throwing young men into the charnel house while he and Kissinger bickered over the shape of a table, and bombed Cambodia unprovoked, instigating one of the most extreme human rights disasters in human history, just think about where the loyalists in his admin ended up.
Violet
@Brachiator:
Maybe. But how’s it going to work when Jeb is out there campaigning and he can’t mention his brother, the former President? He mentioned him at the RNC this summer and the media was all abuzz because it was the only mention of him at the entire convention.
Can W. campaign for Jeb? If not, how will that look? The only living Republican former presidents are both Bushes. Daddy is too old and frail to campaign, but why isn’t his brother out there? Especially if the Dems have their former presidents–or outgoing, in the case of Obama–out there campaigning, it’s going to look very strange and be notable and maybe a problem.
I agree, it’s a slow news day, but I don’t think the W. albatross is made up.
gelfling545
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: I was thinking mostly A. People approve of him staying away.
redshirt
@Villago Delenda Est: Heh. We joke, but we all know these 27% mouthbreathers would give up Democracy in a heartbeat in order to let a strong “Conservative” man rule over them like the trash they are.
Hello modern day Turtledoves! A story of Ronaldus Magnus the Younger crossing the Potomac with his Conservative Army of God would make a great alternative history book.
Mandalay
@Ash Can:
He doesn’t have to do go down that path. He could be like Jon Huntsman, but with balls. He could aggressively call the wingnuts on their bullshit during the primaries, get the Village drooling, win the nomination in a canter, and go for hard the center in the election.
However, I don’t think he has the huevos to pull it off.
Violet
@Cassidy: I disagree about the Miami Vice thing. Don Johnson lived on a boat or something. He didn’t come from money. Jeb Bush wears expensive clothes and comes from a dynasty. He’s snobbish and not in a cool way. Can you imagine Jeb Bush trying to pull off the white suit and three day beard growth plus cool shades? Not gonna happen.
I do agree he’s been trying to position himself as the voice of reason, but trying and succeeding are not the same thing.
Southern Beale
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Was that a joke? Cuz Jeb’s married to a Colombian woman, is he not?
Jeb still has baggage. Noelle Bush (was that her name?) the drug addict convicted of doctor shopping … the wackadoodle son who was accused of stalking his ex-girlfriend. Oh yeah, chicks love that! And then didn’t his wife get into trouble for bringing thousands of dollars of jewelry into the country and not paying taxes on it or some such?
Oh yeah, bring on Jeb. Please.
Mandalay
@Violet:
I don’t think Jeb has the “guy you want to have a beer with” thing down as much as W. did.
That’s true, but Jeb does have a very strong “measured, reasonable and decent” image, which has a far broader (cross-party) appeal when it comes to pulling votes.
Ash Can
@Cassidy: And it wasn’t enough. Nor will it be next time — in fact, there will most likely be even fewer to fall into line. Unless and until the GOP is able to change its sales pitch to appeal to the nation’s evolving (I.e., less white) demographics and throw a net over the lunatics currently running the asylum — or unless the Dems decide to nominate, say, Jessie Jackson Jr. — their good-ol’-boy shtick isn’t going to get much traction on its own going forward. Let’s hope they don’t figure that out.
Another Halocene Human
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: His daughter Noelle Bush is a junkie.
I’m looking forward to The Family telling us that they can really relate to the problems of urban yout.
This lady was caught with coke repeatedly and shipped back to rehab instead of pound-me-in-the-ass prison. Must be nice.
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: No but maybe if we asked Jenna nicely,,,
Southern Beale
@Full Metal Wingnut:
I love that and plan to steal it. Just so you know.
Cassidy
@Violet: I don’t think he’ll dress like that either, but I would pay money to see him try. But I do think he’ll go for the chinos, rolled up shirt sleeve, loafers look that embodies coastal Florida, but I have money look. When you remind people of the beach, they assume your a laid back guy. He’s just tan enough, speaks in the same timbre, and is generally low key enough.
I know this is navel gazing, but I really do expect Jeb to pull out the “I’m just a guy who likes to chill in Florida” persona. It’s so opposite of this cycles clowns and feeds into his reasonable image.
Southern Beale
@Another Halocene Human:
Indeed, between the kids and the wife, every brush with the law has a “must be nice” ending to it. Don’t think that will play well in the post-Trayvon Martin world. It’s the Duhbya/Romney World Of Privilege all over again.
Suffern ACE
@Ash Can: Perhaps if they want to sell the whole “We’re the party of success!” brand, they shouldn’t have such losers as spokespeople.
Violet
@Cassidy: You could be right that it’ll be time for a moderate. I think the GOP has more purging to do. They’ll probably do better in 2014 than they did this time around and that will embolden the crazy again. There’s more crazy to go before they wake up.
Cassidy
@Ash Can: That’s not the point. Of course they lost in the general. I’m referring to people saying he won’t make it out of the Primary. I think he’s got the best shot and they will all vote for him in the general regardless of which brand of fucked up they voted for in the Primary.
J R in WV
W has the wacky 27% tied up, but as soon as he shows his face, reminders of why everyone hates him will pop up everywhere.
That said, nothing the voters do will ever surprise me again. Nothing.
After the heroic voting effort last election day, people standing in line for hours in crummy weather, I suppose we should be reassured.
We waited longer that election than ever before, and were asked for our voter’s registration cards for the first time, but that was because they revised the precincts and wanted people to get new cards with the proper precinct numbers before the NEXT election next year.
But our wait was sitting on bleachers in the middle-school gym, sliding over as new folks joined the back of the line and other folks got to vote. Touch screen voter computers, but with a paper tape you can see to verify that your choices were what was registered. Not bad for a poor rural county, really.
We could have done early voting, but I enjoy seeing the old guys who are the poll workers every election. So far no one has died since I started voting there in 1978 or so. They were old then, and are really old now. Says something for health care, doesn’t it?
But I really think the Bushes are permanently tarred with incompetence. Finally. The Bush Wars, The Bush Deficits, The Bush Social Security Reform. The deserting cowardice…
Cassidy
@Violet: They’re always looking for the trick or the con. They’ll never evaluate thier policies.
cmorenc
@redshirt:
Actually, Ron Reagan, Jr might be a worthy progressive-friendly choice. He definitely fell quite a long ways away from the ideological tree of his father.
Southern Beale
Also, Jeb Bush has some dirty connections to the Texas Commerce Bank which was related to saudi oil and drug money … can’t remember the details….
I think the GOP is going to have to pick someone who is NOT related to the Wall Street/Big Oil/Big Pharma world.
Another Halocene Human
@Ash Can: However, there would be no way for him to avoid Mitt Romney Syndrome—he’d have to straddle the line between sounding too crazy and losing independents, and sounding too sane and losing the GOP base. I think he’d do a better job of it than Romney did because he seems to have the modicum of intelligence that Romney lacked (we’re talking very, very low bar here).
Jeb Bush was ALWAYS better at that. It would be tough but he could still lose, especially with what the Republicans have done to their own brand. We don’t have that big swing contingent out there any more.
I guess we’ll have to see what happens in the midterms.
I think Dems should stick with this economic progressive thing. It worked really well against Romney and would work against any Bush, although he isn’t as much of a shitty pol as Romney was. No more nominating lazy pols or out of touch pols like Gore and Kerry. Someone who fought and won a tough race or two already. No sellouts like the Cuomos. As long as the primary voters get this right we can win.
Ash Can
@Mandalay: In order to win the nomination, he would have to get the most votes in the primaries. And the vote makeup in the primaries is overweighted in the batshit direction, since Republicans make up the vast majority of people who vote in Republican primaries and so many Republicans are, well, batshit. The lunacy on the voter level has to be reduced to the point of irrelevancy in order for a candidate to win the GOP nomination as a moderate, with or without balls.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mandalay:
Yes, the reliable contrarian is reliably contrary. It’s Brach’s role here. He’s a higher level of concern troll. More nuanced and less obvious than the usual ones.
Cassidy
@Ash Can: And yet Mitt made it out as the least batshit of them all. Yes, he steered hard right, but he wasa frickin’ hippy compared to Crazy Eyes and Ass Juice.
Keith G
I doubt that there is much evidence that anything is being “decided”. This is a holiday period following an incumbent’s re-election. Until the financial negotiations and confirmation hearings get up to speed, there is not a lot for political media on deadline to type about.
These posts are so much barking at shadows.
Ash Can
@Cassidy: OK, I get you now. And yes, I agree.
Cassidy
@Keith G: If you think Election 2016 didn’t start Nov. 7th, I have some oceanfront property in Arizona for you.
redshirt
@cmorenc: Clearly an imposter Reagan. I suspect some liberal nurse switched babies in the hospital. For how could it be possible that the blood of Reagan could be poured into a Liberal Wuss? IMPOSSIBLE!
Violet
@Southern Beale: Here’s a good summary of Jeb Bush’s background. There is much that has yet to be combed over and made known to the larger public.
Culture of Truth
No, Jeb will never be President. Not even the nominee, sorry. The problem is the name Bush. It’s the name Romney. They just got their asses kicked and rather than blame their horrible failed ideas they blame the choice of moderate entitled rich aristocratic doofus who looked the part and had the pedigree but was a total disaster and actually turned off voters when they saw what an entitled tool he was. So, sorry, Jeb, your time has passed. Blame Mitt.
Another Halocene Human
@Brachiator: Anyone claiming that the Bush brand has become inherently tainted because of Dubya is just making shit up on a slow news day.
Including Jeb! himself? Remember, it was W 2004, Jeb! 2008. And then in 2008 Jeb! elected to duck-n-cover, telling the journos who followed him to his bunker that his family name was a liability.
I dunno why he didn’t run in 2012 but maybe he had the sense not to damage his brand? Or maybe he has personal problems? Or maybe he knows his home life is bad enough that he needed that Bush brand to carry him over and it hasn’t recovered enough? Palin’s family drama hurt her. He had to be aware of that.
What if he doesn’t have a big, bloated enough ego to run? I still find it funny he never stuck his toe in the water. ‘Sweird.
Villago Delenda Est
@Ash Can:
And this is why voter suppression is one of the GOP’s highest priorities. Because “those people” will NEVER buy into their policies, no matter how many tokens they throw at them.
“Those people” are not like the Rethug base. They actually fucking think, which is dangerous for the Rethug brand.
Violet
@Cassidy: Heck, I think it started in late October. Republicans who didn’t believe the skewed polls knew Romney was going to lose. Those not directly involved in Romney’s campaign were already spinning away from him.
Cacti
@Mandalay:
Poppy was more of an uninspiring mediocrity. Dubya was the American Caligula.
Alex S.
But who are they going to run? Huckabee was polling best against Obama before the 2012 campaign, but he doesn’t have the trust of the establishment (they use evangelicals, they don’t let them drive the car). Then there’s Christie who might have fallen out of grace, Jindal who will go nowhere, several generic republicans (John Thune, Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty) who will not survive the primary on their own, and the nutters. Jeb Bush is at least going to be the kingmaker. You’ve got to have things sorted out in 2014 to run, so you need to have or have had a prominent office now.
cmorenc
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:
It’s a long, long way to the nominating conventions in 2016, so before anyone gets too carried away with presumptions that the ’16 Presidential race will be Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush, recall how common the firm assumption was for nearly three years following the 2004 election that 2008 would be Hillary Clinton vs Rudy Giuliani.
Paul in KY
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: Are you sure she’s fluent? IMO, very slight Spanish accent is not fluent.
You have to sound like you grew up in whatever language you are speaking to be considered ‘fluent’. You can certainly write ‘fluently’ in a language without speaking it fluently.
Another Halocene Human
@Cassidy: But I do think he’ll go for the chinos, rolled up shirt sleeve, loafers look that embodies coastal Florida, but I have money look. When you remind people of the beach, they assume your a laid back guy.
excuse me while I got vomit
the chinos, polos and boat shoes just look SOOOOOO laid back and casual two hours from any beach on the UF campus. So artfully underdone. (puuuuuuuke)
Look, these guys only get REALLY obnoxious when drunk, so sober in the daytime, eh, fine. But how is that image supposed to be appealing? Reminds me of the useless toffs in Wodehouse novels.
Cacti
@Violet:
Jebby also has that kinda sorta embarrassing episode where he told state troopers to defy a court order and remove Terri Schiavo from hospice care, which they flatly refused.
Paul in KY
@hildebrand: I would love the President to do some kind of TV appearance where he speaks behind a UN podium, while wearing a Mao jacket (sorta like what Blofeld wore).
Man, that would send them into a shitspazzout.
Cassidy
@Another Halocene Human: I don’t disagree, but we’re a TV culture.
Think about it. Does President Obama have a career if he came across as Urkel or Carlton or as militant as Farakhan? No. People put him in the “cool” category like Samuel L. Jackson. Christie is liked because he’s a “Joisey Boy”. They can prohect their Soprano’s fantasies on him. It’s all about the visual first.
Another Halocene Human
@Ash Can: This is why the big GOP donors are obsessed with Jeb. It’s a branding thing. The authoritarian followers will line up to vote for a candidate they think will win if their betters tell them to. When the candidate flails like Romney they’ll start shopping around.
I’m waiting for Haley Barbour to announce his candidacy.
PeakVT
Fuck everybody in the media who is talking about 2016. May FSM damn their lazy-asses to an eternity of writing copy for the HSC.
Cacti
@PeakVT:
Election over + lame duck session of Congress + holidays coming up.
They have to talk about something, no matter how useless.
Another Halocene Human
@Cassidy: That’s the thing with “cool”. It has to be “authentic” which means a whiff of rising up from diminished circumstances. Obama pulls it off b/c he’s not trying too hard. (Let’s face it, the man has a lot of the ‘burbs in him.) The chinos guys with their inherited wealth and their very small circle of acceptable acquaintances and haunts wouldn’t have the first clue.
Remember the optics of Kerry windsurfing?
The chinos and boat shoes might be aspirational to those who really, really envy the rich. The rest of us? Meh.
Mandalay
@Ash Can:
All true, but the fact remains that (apart from Huntsman) the most moderate candidate (Romney) easily won the primaries.
Jeb Bush could as well, and I am suggesting that he could do that by attacking some of the wingnut ideas during the primaries rather than pandering to them as Romney did. Then he would be well placed in the election itself, rather than having to constantly change his positions, as Romney did.
(This would be similar to what Tony Blair did in Britain: attack did left of his party, win the nomination, and then sit back in the middle on every issue to get cross-party appeal to become prime minister.)
PeakVT
@Cacti: The list of things that it would be more useful to talk about than potential candidates for 2016 is longer than the Yellow Pages. Speculation on an upcoming Justin Bieber-Honey Boo Boo duet would be more useful than speculation about 2016.
johnny aquitard
@Balconesfault:
Altemeyer’s The Authoritarians is worth a read (or re-read, as I did a few weeks ago).
Culture of Truth
Geogrge W could be “cool” in his own way. Who currently has got it? Hillary, Christie, maybe someoe from out west like Hickenlooper or Schwietzer
Brachiator
@Violet:
RE: Anyone claiming that the Bush brand has become inherently tainted because of Dubya is just making shit up on a slow news day.
Whther Jeb would mention Dubya is a separate issue from the spurious claim that W has forever tainted the Bush brand.
Jeb was always the “smarter” Bush, and for years the conventional wisdom was that he is the one that would run for president, not Dubya.
A core of the GOP base, especially evangelicals, will happily overlook Dubya’s record in embracing Jeb.
The Bush family is furiously ambitious, and believe even more than Romney that they have a permanent claim to the presidency.
And Barb Bush’s ambition and sense of entitlement makes Ann Romney look like a weak sister.
Again, anyone who ignores this and thinks that Jeb has no future, if he wants it, is making shit up.
@Another Halocene Human:
I agree that it was odd that Jeb didn’t make a run at the presidency this last time out. And clearly, had Romney won, Jeb would have been left out in the cold.
But again, the claim that no Bush will ever run because of Dubya is just stupid. It does not even rise to the level of speculation.
But it does get a thread buzzing.
Cassidy
@Another Halocene Human: Well, shit, he’s not trying to appeal to us. He’ll be trying to impress the salt of the erth murkans.
Keith G
@Cassidy: Well, aside from the possibility that in several decades Tuscon may well have a beach, my idea still stands.
To wit: Who are these deciders and what are they deciding? I see no links proffered that can show such a process going on other than the general word like “they” or “some”. As in, “Some Republicans say….”
That’s cool. I read stories in Late Nov. 2004 telling me that “many” Democratic insiders say that Hilary is certain to be their next nominee.
Funny how that works.
redshirt
@Cacti: Fret not! In just a few more days we’ll start to see scary “DID THE MAYANS FORESEE OBAMA DESTROYING THE WORLD IN 2012?! Tune in at 11 to find out!” stories.
Time to panic!
joeyess
He’s certain that the country is in dire need of his service, but he has to restore his personal wealth before he’ll deign to bestow his talent and wisdom for a nation withering from the dangers foreign and domestic.
What a fucking patriot, that one.
karen marie
@gene108: Someone else may have already pointed this out but … I wouldn’t view Bush’s “north of 40” as any indication that people have forgotten. Break the numbers down. When you get 80% support from “conservatives” and 28% from everyone else, it balances out to “north of 40.”
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
@Paul in KY:
A
An accent has nothing to do with fluency. Just because someone speaks with a Spanish, Boston, or southern accent doesn’t mean they aren’t fluent in the language.
1 spoken or written with ease
2 able to speak or write smoothly, easily or readily
Despite her thick Greek accent, Arianna Huffington speaks and writes English fluently.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Southern Beale: ha! Please do. I actually modified it from a Santorum comment here a while back “dumber than your average pile of dogshit”
Cris (without an H)
You know, morons
Steeplejack
@Culture of Truth:
Lo hace mal.
pablo
I’d vote for Reggie Bush…or Kate for that matter. (or maybe that Golden Retriever in the baked beans)
Full Metal Wingnut
Maybe there’s a silver lining? A Bush on the ticket might help mobilize Dems?
ruemara
I have no idea why having a hispanic wife is an asset. Speaking spanish and knowing how to make good mole just makes you decent for catering. If you’re still the wife of dumbass, bumbaclot Republican, pushing standard Republican bullshit, GFY. That’s the lesson of 2012 and it will be manifested in ’14, ’16 and ’20, until it is learned fully.
ruemara
I have no idea why having a hispanic wife is an asset. Speaking spanish and knowing how to make good mole just makes you decent for catering. If you’re still the wife of dumbass, bumbaclot Republican, pushing standard Republican bullshit, GFY. That’s the lesson of 2012 and it will be manifested in ’14, ’16 and ’20, until it is learned fully.
Full Metal Wingnut
@ruemara: I dunno, as a Floridian under Jeb, he never struck me as dumb. He didn’t have a RIDICULOUS accent like his brother, and he was actually pretty articulate. Doesn’t make him a genius, but upon first impression he *seems* more cerebral and such than his brother.
1badbaba3
Jebmentum? Meh. Seems to me it’s more about the legnths the Village will go to in order not to have to talk about how those psychos have destroyed the place over the last four decades. Still, the Bush name hearkens back to Raygun, but surely the flavor is all out of that gum by now. Stick it back under the desk and none will be the wiser.
But by all means Jebbylicious, please run so we can end you and your pernicious neo-con, pardon me, Nazi ilk for good, you fascistic piece of dessicated bullshite. I actually look forward to such a day.
Paul in KY
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: In my book, Arrianna Huffington is not technically ‘fluent’ (in Murcan English). She is fluent in that she speaks colloquially & has a complete knowledge/command of the English language, etc. but she still has that accent.
My personal standards for spoken fluency are quite high.
Cassidy
@1badbaba3: Exactly. I’d love for him to run so we can pull away the veneer of “reasonable” away from these assholes.
Origuy
@Paul in KY: Columba Bush spent the first 18 years of her life in Mexico.
Edit: Sorry, thought you were talking about Spanish fluency.
Niques
@cmorenc: This just makes me smile . . . the idea of a liberal/progressive Reagan running on the Democratic ticket, thereby taking the ‘pugs savior (daddy) off to the dark side!
Smiling Mortician
@Paul in KY:
Perhaps fortunately for the rest of us, we rely on the actual standards for fluency (did you know that these actually exist? it’s true!) rather than on your personal standards.
Cassidy
@Niques: “When I was growing up, my Dad always told me…”
Their heads would explode.
Brachiator
@Villago Delenda Est:
You really are an idiot sometimes. Or maybe just happy to go along with the crowd no matter how pointless the discussion.
I wouldn’t wipe my shoe with Jeb Bush. But it’s just stupid to pretend that some wild ass speculation about the power of the Bush brand “for the next decade” is anything more than thread bait.
So, other than giving people an opportunity to vent about how much they hate Jeb and the other Bushes, what thrill is there in playing Junior Soothsayer about whether Jeb and Bushes yet born have been tarnished by Dubya’s lame record?
There ain’t nothing to be concerned about here. And I don’t begrudge anyone who is having fun with this topic.
But it is emptier than a Romney binder.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Smiling Mortician: Paul v Mortician 200 B.J. Ct. 167 (upholding objective fluency test)
Keith G
Here is why I find conjecture, like that in this post, such a mind-numbing waste. Per Ed Kilgore:
We have a new audience of folks who seem to really want to associate with the ideas of liberal Democrats. Now is the time to rope them in, to engage them in the process of developing the policies that will make their world a better place.
So we “wisely” spend this crucial time kvetching about Republicans and the Village.
How tired is that? What a waste.
Hector Camacho
No ‘mas.
Like me.
Full Metal Wingnut
But what does an accent have to do with command of a language? Is Bill Clinton not fluent in English?
1badbaba3
@Brachiator: But that’s a good thing, no?
eyelessgame
About the “third term” nonsense, funny story.
Back in the nineties I had a cow orker who was a full-on black-helicopters gun-toting wingnut. (I think he left for Idaho sometime in ’98.) In 1997 or so he was complaining mightily about Clinton and how horrible the times were, and he uttered the following: “The way things are going, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t even elect a president in 2000.”
I still regret that I lost track of him – were I to meet him again today I would congratulate him on his prescience. Somehow I doubt he’d appreciate it.
danielx
@The Moar You Know:
All too true, but people will be a long, long time forgetting how much of a complete fuckup W was – after all, we’re still in Afghanistan ten years on, although it’s now Obama’s war. The family dynasty may be on hiatus for a good long while, like for another generation. Jeb in 2016? I can see the slogan now:
Jeb – I won’t be as big a fuckup as my brother!
Yeah, that’ll draw ’em in. Not to mention that he’s not crazy enough for the wingnut faithful, of whom he’s already said he doesn’t think very highly. Not to mention any number of people (like me) who’d like to see Terry Schiavo tattooed on his forehead, among other issues.
So yeah, please let Jeb run. For that matter, let any Republican run. At this point they’ve got the Tea Party crazies hung around their necks like a noose, and those folks would rather lose elections than tolerate any deviation from wingnut doctrine; would rather go down in ideologically pure flames than get behind a RINO (also known as a reasonably sentient and logical human being). Barring a major Obama debacle between now and 2016 – anything is possible – the Republicans are in for a long spell of wandering in the desert.
cgregor
@Southern Beale: Noelle smuggled in a fur coat worth $20,000. I don’t know about any jewelry.
Phoenician in a time of Romans
@hildebrand:
Just heard this on the AM radio – the wingnuts are freaking out over a potential Obama third term. They are convincing themselves that he plans some kind of major catastrophe that will allow him to seek the necesary emergency power so that he can run again.
Well, taking a look at this, and applying the great maxim that “things that can’t continue, don’t”, allow me to make a prediction.
At some stage in the next two or three decades, probably under a Republican administration but maybe under a Democratic one, there *will* be an attempt to delay or cancel an election. The surface reason for this will be some sort of national emergency or war, but the real reason will be a party knowing it would likely lose power, but too given to hatred of the other side to give it up.
And at that point, the slide into fascism starts becoming very fast indeed. If I was advising Europe or other governments, I would tell them now that that event should be the trigger to start arming themselves against an America hell-bent on overseas crusades to distract from a loss of internal democracy.
CBass
I haven’t read all the comments so I’m probably repeating what someone else already wrote, but: W won in 2004. If W could win after 9-11 and all the other debacles, anything can happen. We live in a country where the miracles of stupidity never surprise me. If you think Jeb can’t win in 2016 you’ve been living under a rock.
CBass
Full Metal Wingnut
@Phoenician in a time of Romans: if elections are suspended or the 25th amendment is ignored, all bets are off. Revolution time. But it’s not happening for a while
Phoenician in a time of Romans
@Full Metal Wingnut:
@Phoenician in a time of Romans: if elections are suspended or the 25th amendment is ignored, all bets are off. Revolution time. But it’s not happening for a while
Well, you’ll note that I said “delay” as well. Which will, of course, be purely as a temporary measure, citizen. For the sake of safety. I’m sure you’ll understand.
And I doubt there will be a revolution when such shennanigans start getting played – was there a revolution when Bush started playing fast and loose with fundamental liberties such as habeas corpus? Any such delay will be spun to 911/Invade Iraq levels, with the wingnuts rising up and beating anyone disagreeing to its necessity.
And I think it will happen sooner than you think – I stick by my 20-30 year prediction. The future of the US is not business as usual, but radical disjuncture as political and economic systems break down.
But only time will tell.