Benen and Drum both link to this Robert Costa fellow at NRO on occasion, so apparently he’s like a Dr. Dolittle who can figure out what the Tea Party animals are going to allow John Boehner to do. His latest take is that that Boehner is going to be allowed to pass a continuing resolution that funds the government and defunds Obamacare:
Here’s how my sources expect the gambit to unfold: The House passes a “defund CR,” throws it to the Senate, and waits to see what Senator Ted Cruz and his allies can do. Maybe they can get it through, maybe they can’t. Boehner and Cantor will be supportive, and conservative activists will rally.
But if Cruz and company can’t round up the votes, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rejects the legislation, the House leadership will likely ask Republicans to turn their focus to the debt limit, avert a shutdown, and pass a revised CR — a stopgap spending bill that doesn’t defund Obamacare.
Love that “if” in the second paragraph–have two letters ever done heavier lifting? Anyway, back here on planet Earth, once this thing arrives stillborn on the floor of the Senate, we know that there are between 49-87 Republicans who will join in with Democrats and vote on something sane. The question is whether this vote will happen before or after a government shutdown. The Noam Scheiber piece that DougJ mentioned yesterday says that this vote will occur after a shutdown and he’s probably right.
One of these days, Boehner is going to let something come to the floor and pass that will alienate a majority of his crazy caucus. At that point, they will want to elect another speaker. Who could do a better job than Boehner with that animal farm? My guess is nobody. The problem in the House isn’t the player, it’s the game, and the game, at least in public, is defunding Obamacare, keeping every sperm sacred, and hating poors, browns and gays. If that’s your agenda, your Speaker is going to be weak, no matter who he is.
Anya
I don’t get why the media is so invested in protecting John Boehner. They’re like an indulgent parent who will do anything to bail out their loser child. Their child is never responsible for screwing up things. It’s alway someone else’s fault. It’s the meanie Obama who’s making things hard for poor John Boehner or his unruly caucus. WTF am I missing?
c u n d gulag
John Boehner has never really been a true Speaker of the House.
He has been more like, The Squeaker Who’s a Mouse.
Now, it’s turning out, he’s willing to be, The Squeaker for the Rats.
I’d say, “Try some more whiskey for courage, John.”
Many a man’s had a shot or two, to brace himself for combat.
But then I’m afraid he’d go into a permanent coma, since I think he already reaches his physical limit for alcohol every day.
Probably, before sunset.
agrippa
This will be amusing. I cannot know how it will work out; but, it will be fun to watch.
JPL
@Anya: Since the President knows, that Boehner is weak and inefficient, he should at least give him a sticker for trying.
MattF
But what happens if no one gets a majority in a vote for Speaker? Remember that the crazies are only about 20 percent of the Repubs, so I doubt that any true believer will get the votes. And call me crazy, but I don’t see Cantor looking to jump into this particular catastrophe.
Ash Can
I dunno about that. A speaker who’s just as wacko as the rest of the asylum and gets the loonies to rally ’round him/her will be seen as plenty strong.
JPL
@MattF: For Cantor, it’s all about the power so of course he’ll run.
Punchy
Im not sure they’ll be able to pass anything that doesnt defund Obummercare. Because anything that purports to fund it will be loaded with all sorts of other toxic bullshit (Fair Tax anyone?) that would be DOA in the Senate…
Skippy-san
“Tea Party Animals”-a great descrption of the vermin that inhabit the selfish halls of teabaggerville.
dmsilev
@agrippa:
I wish I could agree, but there’s going to be lots of collateral damage if we get a shutdown. A default would be even worse.
geg6
This guy is the weakest Speaker in the history of the United States. I can’t even figure out why the hell he wants to keep the job. Or why he just doesn’t throw the fucking Hastert Rule out the window and do what is right. He’s been talking about retiring, so why not do what is right for the country, throw the finger at the teahadis, and go back to Ohio to drink good bourbon and play golf for the rest of his days?
I.Just.Don’t.Get.It.
OzarkHillbilly
@agrippa: Please pass the popcorn.
Botsplainer
@geg6:
It’s amazing that a gerrymandered 52% of a third of a government is so empowered as to have a tantrum that threatens to crash the economy.
shortstop
@JPL: He’s about the power, but not about taking the public heat for the power. He’s better positioned — and he knows it — as the guy standing one step back and fucking everything up. Much like Dick Cheney, I suppose.
OzarkHillbilly
@dmsilev: I would far prefer an epic meltdown of the gov’t for 3 or 4 days so that people can see the Repubs “small gov’t” BS for what it is. Right now we are having the “death of a thousand cuts” inflicted upon us.
Besides, it will be fun to watch….
Elizabelle
Follow the money. Today’s NYTimes Editorial: The Money Behind the Shutdown Crisis
Mad Max world with checkbooks and secrecy.
Brought to you by the John Roberts Court and Citizens United.
...now I try to be amused
Remember when Tea Partiers claimed they weren’t Republicans? If we take them at their word, then how could Boehner not be a weak Speaker? He doesn’t have a real majority; he’s trying to manage a coalition of the GOP and the batshit crazy.
WereBear
It’s essential for playing Both Sides Do It. Boehner has to be propped up as the principled Speaker who is being harassed by the Democrats.
Because the truth; he’s an alcoholic lobbyist chosen FOR his spinelessness, running cover for a band of fanatics and lunatics who wish to destroy the country and make people suffer…
Such things, spoken aloud, would upset the owners of our media outlets. Who are, after all, backing that very band of fanatics and lunatics.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Anya: Republicans are really good, sensible Eisenhower moderates, all about white picket fences and Sunday afternoon picnics down at the (very secular) Episcopal church. They just have to talk like nuts to appease their base, and it’s up to Democrats to figure out a way for them to walk the line between what they are and what the poor dears are, through absolutely no fault of their own, forced to pretend to be. If that aloof and arrogant Obama would just have Mitch McConnell to the Living Quarters for lemonade and cribbage, none of this would be happening. David Broder knew this, and Cokie Roberts, Tom Brokaw and Bob Woodward all know it know. A worldview aided by being rich enough to tell yourself Paul Ryan is just a green-eyeshade numbers guy with good plan.
Boehner denied last week’s reports of his imminent escape I mean retirement, didn’t he?
OzarkHillbilly
@Botsplainer:
Hey now! That’s the GREATEST COUNTRY IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD you are talking about.
Shalimar
@JPL: Cantor already has power, in the sense that he can pretend to be in command of the tea party people. In reality, the tea party positions are formed on talk radio and in Koch-tanks. They are out of the control of Republican political leaders, but at least Cantor can see what those positions are going to be and lead the coalition. The Speaker no longer has any real power in the current environment, only responsibility.
And no good Republican ever voluntarily takes responsibility for anything. Cantor isn’t going to be Speaker. If Boehner retires or is voted out, we will see another puppet in the role.
Woodrowfan
@geg6:
You answered your own question. he won’t because he’s weak. And he got a weasel (Cantor) sniffing at his heels
Comrade Dread
Somehow this reminds me of this quote from CS Lewis:
The war in the GOP is between the old guard robber barons who recognize that shutting down the government threatens their own self-interest and careers and the ideological moral crusaders who don’t care about the pain they inflict on anyone because it’s what God/Rand (they’re pretty much the same to some Tea Partiers) would want.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Shalimar: That’s interesting, who would be Cantor’s Hastert? They’d need their version of Marco Rubio, somebody able to clean up enough for the Sunday shows but with credibility with the hands-off-my-medicare-scooter brigade. Marsha Blackburn would give them a media coup, but she strikes me as too dumb and ambitious to make a good front– Hastert was smart enough to know he was Mr Delay’s meat-puppet.
Elizabelle
@WereBear:
Your comment 18.
Word.
Tone in DC
I do not think this will be fun to watch. A lot of people won’t be paid during a shut down (retirees, members of the military and others). Some of these folks are one check away from foreclosure. And this rather anemic recovery does NOT need the jolt of our credit rating taking ANOTHER hit if these d-nozzles won’t raise the debt ceiling.
The Prez is trying hard to keep the country from going up in smoke, and these brain donors keep spraying lighter fluid and throwing blue tips.
Keith P.
The problem is that their leaders aren’t leaders; they’re followers. If they had worked to control their flock earlier, then they wouldn’t be stuck having to implement whatever fringe idea that come along.
mai naem
I would be very happy if Boehner does step down and Eric Cantor steps up. It sounds like these people wouldn’t work with Cantor either so his career would be at a dead end too. I’ve never liked Cantor the weasel.
The Moar You Know
Au contraire. Our good friend Newt Gingrich is unemployed at the moment. And he’s got previous experience.
The Moar You Know
@Shalimar: Agreed. I don’t think he wants the job, to be honest. Why be a target when you can be the guy behind the target?
Roger Moore
@Botsplainer:
Not that amazing. Any government that’s capable of accomplishing anything real and good is also capable of creating massive disasters. Put part of that government with real power into the hands of stupid crazy people, and bad things are likely to happen.
mai naem
@Tone in DC: While I agree with your prediction about the economy, chances are that the Repubs are going to hold congress till 2016 and they’re going to pull this crap every time the debt ceiling has to be raised and Obamas going to have less leverage as he becomes more of a lame duck. We need to bite the bullet this one time.
Frankensteinbeck
You would think, but is this really true? Haven’t they tried and failed already? Nobody wants the job, and nobody can agree on who should get the job. At this point, the split between the corporatist assholes and the teabagging lunatics is deep. If the Republicans nominate someone one side finds unacceptable, how many abstentions would give Nancy the gavel back? Deposing Boehner is an unpredictable mess for the same reasons Boehner can’t get anything passed.
RaflW
But, but, messaging! The GOP just needs to communicate better to the voters about its plans!
They seem to forget that SC Johnson can sell heated scent plugin crapola because people know their houses smell kinda funny. But the stink coming from the GOP can’t be sold no matter how big the ad buy.
Frankensteinbeck
Hell, in terms of personal power, Speaker Nancy would be a very good thing for a lot of Republican Representatives. Suddenly, ‘moderate’ House Republicans are the guys who have to be courted and tongue-bathed and given gifts to get anything done, the exact opposite of the current situation. And all they have to do is call in sick on the day of the vote.
Tone in DC
We need to bite the bullet this one time.
When I read bite the bullet, my thought is tell Orange Julius and the teahadis to jump in the Potomac.
Unlike the previous instances, the public is slowly figuring out whose is at fault for these all too frequent impasses. And that should help a bit.
We shouldn’t negotiate with hostage takers. And not with self righteous idiots who disproportionately come from the Confederacy.
feebog
@ToneinDC:
I wish this were true, but I really don’t see any real proof of this. The Republicans I interact with seem to live in a bubble impervious to reason or facts. The real proof that this is sinking in with the public will be the mid-term elections. Dems need 18 seats net to take back the House. When I start to see polling that indicates we are moving in that direction then I’ll accept the notion that the “public” is figuring out that this should be on the Republicans.
agrippa
@dmsilev:
I know. The consequences are bad.
It is pure gallows humor.
Oarboar
@Frankensteinbeck: The problem with that scenario is those Republicans who call in sick would be primaried.
I guess we’re just going to have to party like it’s 1995.