People make the usual kinds of argument to explain why Donald Trump won’t beat Hillary – months to the first polls, some pollsters have better records than others etc., and most of those do not convince me much. You can usually predict the result of a Presidential election pretty far in advance, even when wish otherwise. I can say for example that Jeb Bush will not beat Hillary. Everybody knows who these two people are and they like Hillary better. Trump, though, different story. The guy is completely out of left field.
So here is why I think Trump will neither make it to the GOP nomination nor come close to beating Hillary Clinton. The guy is simply too volatile. The same rapid-fire unpredictability that gets his supporters so hot and bothered will ultimately do him in. For example.
Donald J. Trump, who received draft deferments through much of the Vietnam War, told the author of a forthcoming biography that he nevertheless “always felt that I was in the military” because of his education at a military-themed boarding school.
Mr. Trump said that his experience at the New York Military Academy, an expensive prep school where his parents had sent him to correct poor behavior, gave him “more training militarily than a lot of the guys that go into the military.”
Plenty of right-leaning folks will never forget or forgive a BS line like that. Maybe no one statement will sink the guy but it adds up, and you can’t discount the deep well of potential energy in right-leaning circles from leadership to basically every other candidate to FOX News waiting to pounce when the guy shows an ounce of vulnerability. The guy will do himself in before September is over.
Baud
The general election is one year and two months from now. Maybe Trump won’t beat Hillary because neither will be in the general.
rikyrah
I don’t believe Trump will be the nominee because I still believe in the GOP Establishment…and they want Jeb.
I still want Trump in it as long as possible, forcing the rest of them to take positions that will be poisonous in a General Election.
Baud
Also, Trump’s statement would have sunk any Democrat before the sun set on the US of A.
Morzer
Conservatives will forgive anything and everything if they think Trump pisses off liberals and might beat Darth Clinton.
scav
Some days, it’s like they’r playing Shark Hopscotch.
Others, it’s like Moral Position Political Platform Twister. Spin!
Fair Economist
I wish this were true, but Trump has already had a number of monstrous gaffes and deviations from Republican orthodoxy (normally lethal for the Republican nomination) and he’s riding as high as ever – arguably higher, since #2 is an amateur (Carson) with vastly less money and stage presence. It seems nobody cares about Trump’s gaffes (which are frequently off-the-chart outrageous) and deviations from Republican orthodoxy will benefit him in the general.
Patricia Kayden
Trump is the candidate the Republicans deserve so I hope he pulls through and wins the nomination. That would be sweet. His volatility hasn’t seemed to hurt him with the base as yet. We’ll see.
ThresherK
Couldn’t hear Trump boast about feeling like he served over the sound of his goon assaulting a sign-carrying voter.
wjs
At this point, claiming that prep school was “just like the military” is a positive for Trump because the vast majority of wingnuts believe, in their heart of hearts, that their time spent typing out comments on liberal blogs equals being shot at by the deadliest of Quds forces.
Every time I see one of these “Trump is done!” posts I laugh because Trump is far from done. Trump hasn’t even started to spend a lot of his own money destroying his enemies. He’s not in it for elected office–it doesn’t pay enough! He’s there for the brand enhancement that goes with being taken seriously by idiots running for President.
A guy
Hopefully Hillary is out and facing an indictment
SatanicPanic
I don’t know. He won’t win the general, but at this point I wouldn’t put anything past Republican voters. He might get the nomination.
satby
@efgoldman: indeed. And with good reason!
Iowa Old Lady
I realize this school/army thing is new, but Trump is starting to repeat himself, and the one thing he can’t afford to be is boring. He gets attention because people wait breathlessly to hear what will come out of his mouth next.
Morzer
@rikyrah:
I would imagine the GOP establishment is praying for Trump to implode, but Jeb is even less charismatic and convincing than Romney. I don’t see how they can hope to sell another mush-mouthed doofus to the rubes so soon.
Roger Moore
I am not at all confident of that. I think he’s succeeding in connecting deeply with a set of disenchanted Republican voters, and it’s going to take a lot to convince those voters to abandon him for anyone else. It’s been a long while since there’s been this degree of genuine excitement about a Republican candidate, and I don’t expect that to dissipate because of a few missteps or negative ads from the Republican establishment. If anything, the hatred of the party establishment is going to endear him to the people he’s attracting, because they thoroughly despise the leadership.
beltane
A good number of conservatives don’t actually care much about military service. This is the party that nominated Mitt Romney, a man who explained away his sons’ lack of military service by saying that working for his campaign was a more meaningful way of serving their country. He himself avoided serving in Vietnam by going to France to proselytize the cigarette smoking, wine drinking locals. He thought this work was very dangerous and difficult. Compared to Romney, Trump doesn’t look so bad.
Morzer
@Iowa Old Lady:
The GOP base has an endless appetite for the same old loony toons. Generally, it isn’t even necessary to tweak the wording. Just hit the right buzzwords and the mob will howl approval.
raven
@efgoldman: I saw it hours ago. This was SSG Dallas Pinkney, my Drill Instructor at Ft Campbell KY in 1966. He did not teach at any “military schools” but he did kick our asses into next week. He also was incredibly compassionate when that shit was over. He told us the politicians were sending us to a war and they did their best to get us ready in 8 weeks.
Hunter Gathers
Yep, it’ll take him down just like the comment he made about John McCain being a POW.
Fair Economist
@Morzer: One clever thing Trump has done to get the nomination is to put in all these barbed digs at Jeb. Hillary (or Sanders) can pull out Trump’s attack lines against Jeb like being an idiot about Iraq and being boring in the general. They’ll be very powerful because they’re true, pithily stated, and even were agreed to by many Republicans when Trump said them. Trump is sabotaging the establishment front-runner.
Bobby Thomson
OT: dafuq?
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
I agree – but would add this: maybe Trump’s limit is 35% of the mob, but when you’ve got 16 other conzombs splitting the remaining 65%, that 35% could win you an awful lot of primaries.
Morzer
@Fair Economist:
I’d say Jeb is more of a front-wobbler at this point.
raven
@efgoldman: This guy had been a grunt in Korea and was sure he was going to die in the Nam. I searched and found that he was buried near Tallahassee, Fl in the 90’s. I was glad, he was a bad motherfucker but he cared.
Anoniminous
I believe I can direct field operations of the 1st Armored Division because I played with toy soldiers as a kid.
Some guy
Jeb getting beat up by The Donald is a joy to watch.
Poopyman
@raven: Yes, I think you were the first to post that here. Now I’m waiting for the certain outrage from those Swiftboat guys. Bound to happen, right?
SRW1
A year and two months is a looooooong time for a clown with somewhat limited repertoire to keep his audience captivated.
tom
I hope he holds out until at least 1st week of November because he’s bound to say about 8 ridiculously racist and or stupid things around Halloween.
SatanicPanic
@SRW1: tell that to Rush Limbaugh
Morzer
@Some guy:
That, for me, summarizes the problem the GOP has. Even if people aren’t wild about Trump his yuuge classy self, they enjoy seeing JEB! getting a kicking so much that they’ll keep Trump around just for the lulz.
Calouste
50-60% of the GOP primary voters wants to vote for someone who has never held office. And in the end, of the three options, it’s not going to be the woman or the black guy, besides the fact that they don’t have money. And “never held office” beats “politician from this state” 59-25 in the latest Florida GOP primary poll. The GOP primary voters just aren’t that much into the GOP establishment any more, even they can see they have achieved f-all over the last 8 years.
JPL
@beltane: Bush Jr. pulled strings to avoid going to Nam and no one cared.
He was too lazy, even to complete his guard duty.
iokiyr
Baud
Are there any veterans among any of the candidates in either party?
ronin122
@Morzer: Agreed. Tim puts too much stock in what the wingnuts consider sin. Saying something stupid like that is only bad and deserving of a swiftboat if you’re a Democrat, it’s very okay if you’re a Republican. They’ll happily turn a blind eye on the failings of their leader if he’s willing to wave a flag and piss off a lib.
A Ghost To Most
@Anoniminous:
Yep, and I am a grizzled combat vet from my three dangerous years serving in Omaha.
Fuckin morans.
Calouste
@Baud: Webb, Graham, Perry. Iow, no one of importance.
Frank Bolton
I do think that Trump might go down before the end of the year.
But what’s going to bring him down isn’t clownish statements or him getting repetitive. That’s VSP-thinking. And the VSP still can’t bring themselves to acknowledge that the only reason why a non-elected secular billionaire with a ton of political heresies is in first place is because the number one taboo is to discuss or even acknowledge how bigoted and mean-spirited Traditional America is. Hence the obsession with the gaffe-a-days and silly season and whatever.
But there is a ray of sunshine. Trump has been slowly back-peddling his racism. That’s the first genuine chink in his armor. It’s not enough to destroy him since he’s the only candidate (besides maybe Cruz, whom still gets called plenty of racial slurs) who hasn’t been tagged with the #cuckservative label. But if he keeps going down that route it’ll create enough of a weakness for the GOP establishment to finally bring him down.
Baud
@Anoniminous: @A Ghost To Most:
I’ve seen Apocalypse Now. Baud! 2016.
Morzer
@A Ghost To Most:
I read one of Warren Buffett’s books once. That’s clearly equivalent to a full tour of duty in the wilds of Omaha.
Come to think of it, I watched Peyton Manning get his ass kicked by the Seahawks, so I guess that means I’ve done two tours of duty in Omaha.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Military experience. check!
WaterGirl
@Morzer: I thought that meant you have played professional football!
Baud
@Calouste:
Thanks. I remember when that was a big deal when Clinton ran.
A Ghost To Most
I see what you did there.Nice!
Omaha is actually a nice town. Don’t want to live there though.
redshirt
I played a first person shooter a few times so I think I know about Special Forces deployments.
Anoniminous
@Baud: @WaterGirl:
Feel the BAUDMENTUM!
Morzer
@WaterGirl:
I’m scheme-flexible. I played for the Seahawks as part of my military service as a horse-wrangler.
Morzer
@Anoniminous:
It’s just so BJ, the way everyone starts telling Baudy stories in the evening.
Morzer
@efgoldman:
The Slayer Of Cellphones spent time pounding away in the the Army’s rear area.
Scott S.
Hell, I remember when we thought Trump dissing John McCain was going to finish him off.
Right now, I’m not sure I can imagine anything he’ll say that’ll get the wingnuts to turn on him. Eating a baby? Growing a Hitler mustache? Maybe calling New Maximum Party Leader Kim Davis a loser?
Baud
@Anoniminous:
I’m thinking of going with Baudilicious. Need something fresh.
A Ghost To Most
@Morzer:
Interesting phrasing.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Baud v. jeb!?
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I’m not sure Jeb will get the nom.
WereBear
This is Trump’s biggest reality show yet. He’s been at this for what, 18 years?
THIS IS WHAT HE DOES.
A Ghost To Most
@WereBear:
We may be watching the finest piece of performance art this country has ever seen.
Morzer
@efgoldman:
You are a krafty kritter these days, EF.
seaboogie
@Baud: One thing I know about you from following this blog is that when the phone rings at 3 am, you’ll pick it up before the first “Brrriiinnnng” has even finished. I am totes looking forward to that ad. Make it really dark, with scary music.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
Before deciding, here’s a slogan generator and here’s another.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
I stand by my prediction that Trump is going to ragequit before Super Tuesday.
Morzer
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
A Ghost To Most
@seaboogie:
Killer sheep are available.
Morzer
@efgoldman:
“Thurston, goddamn it, where did you hide the mustard? No, I don’t… no, not the slippers… Thurston.. don’t you dare you Ravens-loving mofo… not in my slip… I am so going to turn you into dogjerky you worthless little ….Ah, good evening, President Baud.”
Frank Bolton
@Scott S.:
Backpedaling significantly on white aggrievement. You know, short of the whole ‘dead girl or live boy’ mega-scandals.
I can still imagine scenarios where Trump still loses (Walker pulls his head out of his ass/the plutocrats train their money on non-Jeb establishment figures and Carson serves as a magnet for evangelicals) but the GOP base isn’t going to abandon Trump short of that.
Baud
@seaboogie:
I shall download a grave ringtone for my cellphone for that 3 am call.
@Anoniminous:
Thanks!
Morzer
@Frank Bolton:
I have real doubts that Neckdeep can achieve that in time.
raven
@Baud: Perry was an Airforce puke.
Just One More Canuck
BAUD!! 2016!! Vote Early, Vote Often!!
Two exclamation points, because he’s twice as smart as Jeb
seaboogie
@efgoldman: So, for some reason (Colonel Mustard), this reminds me of the game “Clue”. We could make a BJ version that would be fun, but with pets added.
Something like: Cole, in the kitchen, with Thurston, and a mop.
seaboogie
@Baud: Beethoven’s Fifth would be awesome. Wonder if anyone in the WH has thought of that.
Morzer
@seaboogie:
From Duck Dynasty to Oh Fuck Dynasty.
Frank Bolton
@Morzer: That’s the second-biggest* surprise of the whole primary, learning just how stupid Walker is. Yes, I know that he was always dim, but not to this extent. I thought that he was W. Bush stupid, in that while he was fucking himself and bystanders over, at least on a superficial, sociopathic level his decisions made sense. But no. A wall on Canada’s border? Seriously.
*The biggest surprise of the primary is Trump’s candidacy, of course. Not the part where he rockets to first place despite a total lack of qualifications thanks to playing the race card good and hard, but the part where he packaged his nativism with producerism. I don’t think anyone predicted that, not even the people who thought that he’d at least for a spell be ringmaster of the circus.
seaboogie
@A Ghost To Most: I think the piglets (not that Cole could possibly organize them for a photo-shoot) would be awesome – except for Lily, she’s too obviously sweet to seem ominous.
Roger Moore
@seaboogie:
London Calling or GTFO.
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
smintheus
Of which year?
Killjoy
Peak Wingnut, 2015 edition
burnspbesq
@A guy:
On what charge? Be specific, and cite evidence.
Morzer
@burnspbesq:
Now you’ve done it.That poor boy will have to find a dictionary before he can answer you. Which, of course, will require someone to explain to him what a dictionary is.
seaboogie
@efgoldman: Nice. Suggestion to the FPers: A thread for the Baudilicous!! 2016’s 3 am call ringtone would be a fun thread – with youtube links. Nice break from the actual insanity. ef – yours is my favorite so far – that’ll get the adrenaline pumping!
Zinsky
Hillary should win. No one is more qualified. It isn’t even close. However, most Americans are stupid – and lazy. Therein lies the uncertainty.
Morzer
@Baud:
I think you should stick with:
Under The Baudwalk
El Caganer
I don’t think he’s done himself any harm; who’s going to call him out? Bill Kristol? Doughy Pantload? One of the other Chairborne Rangers? Hell, this might even win them over: “Hail, the Donald! We who are about to blog salute you!”
catclub
@Morzer: All that unlimited cash keeps non-competitive candidates in the race.
In the good old days they would drop out for lack of money. Kasich and Carson are two that have surprising amounts.
Cruz has even more.
Heliopause
Thing is, even Trump’s BS military record is more military experience than his credible competitors in the GOP race.
Gin & Tonic
@efgoldman: I like Mozart’s better.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Night of the Living Baseheads?
Gin & Tonic
@efgoldman: Weren’t you efgoldman99 on an earlier thread? I didn’t have my glasses then, so it was pretty fuzzy.
priscianus jr
@A Ghost To Most: “… my three dangerous years serving in Omaha.”
You must mean Omaha Beach — you can call it Omaha for short, but not for long.
Calouste
@Heliopause: Makes you wonder whether Trump brought this up on purpose. He knows one of Bush3/Walker/Rubio/Cruz is stupid enough to attack him on that without realizing that they are opening up their own flank.
Steeplejack (tablet)
President Baud’s 3:00 a.m. ringtone.
Radio One
the trouble really is in trying to figure out who would emerge as the front runner once Trump finally implodes. I doubt it will be Jeb.
polyorchnid octopunch
Hell no. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATPLk559XY
pluege
its not that trump is “too volatile” (whatever that means – he’s going to self-immolate?), it’s that he is too egomaniacal. Anyone that self-absorbed, that narcissistic, that megalomaniac as trump, is also so delusional in convincing themselves that everyone loves them no matter what they say or do that they will eventually tick-off almost everyone.
trump is a thoroughly unlikable character, except by the most craven.
SFAW
@Roger Moore:
Right album, wrong song:
Guns of Brixton
SFAW
@Radio One:
Of course not. It’ll be BAUD!!2016
Either him, or Harold Stassen.
Feebog
Ok, anecdotal, but food for thought. Eating lunch after a round of golf with two good friends. Mike is a Vietnam Vet and proud of it Also pretty liberal. But he said that a lot of what Trump is saying resonates with him. He knows Trump is an A-hole, but still…
I posted the Trump story on his “military service” on Facebook yesterday. Mike was all over it. So Trump lost at least one vet over those remarks, and I suspect many more.
Ian
@A guy:
For what? Breaking an Obama admin technicality? Or is it murdering Vince Foster?
JoeShabadoo
What everyone seems to ignore is that there is no one in the primary to attack Trump for his screw ups. Either the other candidate agrees with Trump, the base likes what he says or the other candidate is guilty of the same problem.
There is no John McCain that can shit on Trump for this. Everyone with a chance in the primaries has no military experience worth mentioning. They can’t attack Trump without leaving themselves wide open for Trump to unload on them.