happy hanukkah pic.twitter.com/CWJZ4d4EdZ
— Oliver Roeder (@ollie) December 13, 2015
This time, in Las Vegas. There were rumors that Little Prince Rand would quit if denied his spot on the main stage, but a last-minute Fox News poll out of Iowa allowed CNN to retain the optics of a flame-haired Trump at center stage setting his fellows alight.
Staying on theme, Politico gives “British political gambler” Paul Krishnamurty a chance to “predict the entire 2016 election”:
… As a gambler, I’ve noticed that Americans might also be obsessed with predicting their presidential races, but they often rely on pundits whose name recognition far outstrips their accuracy. Gamblers can’t afford to be wrong that often: Political prediction is a genuine game of skill, with serious research going into the effort—and serious rewards for the gambler who gets it right.
I’ll cut to the chase: my current prediction is for Hillary Clinton to become president, in line with Betfair’s ratings, at about 54 percent. But my main focus—and where the greatest potential profit lies—is predicting the winner of the GOP nomination. In gambling terms, this race is the perfect political market: one that’s wide-open, and in which momentum (and therefore the betting), swings regularly between candidates. Right now I have positions on a raft of outsiders, including Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina—and my biggest bet, on Ted Cruz…
… I expect a better motivated, high-turnout anti-Trump contingent to coalesce around the candidate best placed to beat him. Given that Carson and Trump together add up to over 40 percent of poll share, their decline or withdrawal would utterly transform the race. Their former backers would prove decisive. Where would these voters go next?
Both candidates represent hostility to conventional politicians: Trump’s bid has been fueled by extreme rhetoric on immigration—now the third most important issue as of last month, behind the economy and national security—while Carson is thriving among evangelicals. So the beneficiary of their decline should be anti-establishment, immigration hardliner, popular among evangelicals and well-resourced to withstand a long race.
I’ve felt for months that this mystery candidate is Ted Cruz, as only he can convincingly tick off all four of these boxes. He appeals to social conservatives, libertarians, constitutionalists and immigration hardliners. His candidacy has immeasurably greater potential than a damaged Gingrich or under-resourced Santorum. Wrecking ball tactics in Washington effectively make him the outsider the base seems to want. Cruz has avoided criticizing Trump and is openly chasing his voters. And as far as evangelicals are concerned, who better than the winner of the Values Voter Straw Poll for the past three years?…
Me, I doubt that the Great American Common or Low-Info Voter will chose to risk four years of watching Ted Cruz’s smug mug emitting horrible nasal noises on their teevees, but since B-movie actor Ronald Reagan got elected I’ve learned to never say never when it comes to Rethug taste (or the lack thereof).
***********
Apart from horserace journalism (lowest of the low!), what’s on the agenda for the start of the new week?
OzarkHillbilly
Trying to be a good boy, and failing miserably.
Mustang Bobby
Last full week at the office, then two weeks of “break” which is actually some paid holidays and five furlough (unpaid) days out until the 4th of January.
Tomorrow night is the one and only rehearsal of the reading of my play before it will be read to a paying audience Wednesday night. I have a lot of faith in the director, with whom I’ve worked before and trust very much, and a fine cast.
Speaking of casts, @OzarkHillbilly: I hope your leg is healing and that you have an uneventful recovery.
Baud
I wish they had put Cruz in the center just to see how Trump would react.
When would libertarians like Cruz? (Not that they have anyone else after Paul).
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: Do what they tell you!
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I guess Failgunner Ted is a bit less(as in he’d send 10K troops as opposed to 20K) interventionist, other than that ‘I got nothing’.
Baud
@Mustang Bobby: Do an OzarkHillbilly! (Break a leg!)
MattF
Thinking about car-buying– my old car (a 2000 Accord sedan) is making– um– funny noises.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I also like the new category of voters called “constitutionalists.” Who’s that?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Fat Tony.
sm*t cl*de
Not one of them can come out and say “No, I won’t appear on stage with a feckin’ Nazi”? What a parade of collaborationist courage.
Schlemazel
not much light coming from that menorah, but then again, none of those candles is very bright.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Yesterday morning I got up app 4:30. As I sit up my wife asks if she can sleep a while longer. “Sure.”
Got up, took care of the animals, made coffee, filled the carafe, made more coffee, went outside for my early morning cup of darkness, came back in and crawled upstairs with the carafe and a cup in a bag, then did my morning surfing. The wife finally got up about 7:30-8.
“Where are you?”
“Up here.”
“You want some coffee?”
“I already have some.”
“WHAT???? HOW DID YOU GET COFFEE UP THERE WHY DIDN”T YOU WAKE ME UP WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH YOU ARE YOU TRYING TO BREAK YOUR OTHER LEG OR IS IT YOUR NECK YOU ARE SHOOTING FOR THIS TIME…..”
I can’t win.
Baud
@sm*t cl*de:
Who’s talking about whom there?
BillinGlendaleCA
For your Monday morning viewing pleasure, I hereby submit, not one, but TWO picture albums(but there’s a catch):
There’s Snow in Them Thar Hills
and
3-D(You’ll need red/blue anaglyph glasses to view these correctly in 3-D, that’s the catch).
raven
@MattF: I have a 2003 but it only has 69,000 miles on it!
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: I’m a very familiar with this situation!
MattF
@raven: I’m up to about 175,000. Almost all commuting, almost all highway, but miles are miles.
David Koch
Reagan was a B movie actor but he wasn’t against Henry Fonda or Lee Marvin he was running aginst Bush Sr and Bob Dole. Not exactly front line competition.
As for Carter, he didn’t have Obama’s luck. A photographer during 2008 gave an account of a rally in New Hampshire where it was raining cats and dogs but the minute Obama’s van arrived the skies instantly cleared and a rainbow appeared, touching his stage. For Carter, too much shit happened on his watch that he wasn’t responsible for yet received the blame.
BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: You know, if you’re not good; she’ll put you in a home.
JPL
@BillinGlendaleCA: lol
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
CNN
ETA: This is why The Blacks like Trump.
Mustang Bobby
@MattF: Funny ha-ha or Funny sheesh?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Mustang Bobby: Unless he has a whoopee cushion in the drivers seat, I’m not thinking Funny ha-ha.
OzarkHillbilly
@MattF: All cars make noises, if they’re funny noises enjoy the comedy routine. Highway miles are far easier on a vehicle than city stop n go driving. At highway speeds all components are operating under optimal conditions. My wife’s Bonneville had 450K on it before she traded it in, and mechanically it was still sound (wiring was losing it’s insulation, ALL the wiring, would have cost $2,000 to replace).
OzarkHillbilly
@BillinGlendaleCA: She likes it better when I’m bad.
Keith G
Therein lies a problem. You may doubt, but who actually has an adequate grip on the reptilian thought process of these folks?
I know I don’t. And that is why I have essentially thrown in the towel and decided not to give this process any more of my energy except an occasional check in. It does not matter who is left to accept their nomination.
What matters is our side’s ability to discuss and hash out policies that capture the imagination, hopes, and energy of our natural voters – policies that move to help reclaim a bit of what has been lost. If we do that, we win.
Period.
Spending time making fun of the other side is not doing “that”.
raven
@Keith G: Does that mean we all have to give you access to our calendars?
Schlemazel
@sm*t cl*de:
No, like the Dumpsters threat to not appear unless CNN paid him it would have to be a bluff. Publicity and attention is oxygen for a candidate, not going on a televised debate woud be like cutting off their oxygen supply. They really don’t have any choice even if one of them has the courage to show up in a fright wig and a big orange nose. This pack is clowns all the way down but none could afford to be separated from them.
Keith G
@raven: That’s purely optional.
raven
“Are you suggesting I am playing on people’s fears”???
the abused wife crawls on the floor
gene108
@MattF:
Can you get the funny noise fixed?
My 2003 Toyota Corolla was making funny noises in April, then I took it to the mechanic and he replaced the front struts.
Funny noises stopped.
Elmo
Annual day of strongly conflicted emotional states – it’s the third anniversary of my Dad’s death, and it’s also my birthday.
I was sort of hoping to have resolved the conflict by now, but no. Just kinda melancholy.
I think I’m going to start celebrating my half-birthday instead, and do June 14 from now on.
MattF
@Mustang Bobby: ‘Funny’ as in ‘sounds like it’s getting ready for lift-off’. I don’t get worried about suspension noises or creaks and groans. But new engine noises are a different matter.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Elmo: Happy Birthday, just remember the words of Handsome Joe Biden about losing a loved one. My dad died on my mom’s brother’s birthday, also Elvis’s.
Baud
@raven: That sounds demented.
Morning Joe?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Joe of the Morning was pissing his pants, yet again. He really should see a doctor about that, it could be serious.
Donut
@Baud:
Actual libertarians are nearly a phantom species in today’s GOP. Doesn’t matter what they think. They have no real impact on the Republican primary (or the world, for that matter) besides what goes on in their fevered imaginations. If the libertarians stay home, no one but no one gives a sweet fuck.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Speaking of unadulterated fear, I’d hate to be the custodial staff who has to clean the stage after the GOP debate.
Phylllis
@Mustang Bobby: Last week before the long break for us as well; no furlough days this year though. Friday is a half-day, which means we’re usually out of the office by 11:30 at the latest. Except, got a call from the Governor’s office last Friday asking the Superintendent, Asst. Super, and the person in charge of afterschool (me) to attend a meeting at 2 p.m. this Friday. With Guv Nikki. At 2 p.m. on any Friday is bad enough, but this Friday rather stinks even more.
Baud
@Donut: They are, and always have been, a marketing tool. Like every other conservative, the freedom they care about is freedom from taxes and regulation. But you need to talk about pot and Snowden to draw in the young people.
But they still have to choose a GOP candidate, so I was wondering why they chose Cruz, if the article is accurate.
bystander
Just caught Ted Koppel calling Trump “chief recruiter for Isis” on Crooksandliars.
Interesting that no one reflects on how different it would be if only we had someone who could lead by example, a real leadery kind of leader who knew how to project an image of calm, vigilance and strength.
Punchy
Political gambling? Off-shores oddsmakers have both Rubio and Cruz ahead of Trump for the nommy. I dont get it. I realize that odds are meant to make the house $, not to necessarily reflect reality, but I’m just not understanding Trump so far behind Rubio.
BillinGlendaleCA
@bystander:
American leader are not supposed to do that, just PANIC!!!
Donut
@Baud:
My theory – ye olde trope, “at least he’s good on destroying as much regulatory framework as humanly possible in four years.” Those inhuman cretins don’t really give two shits about anything else, in the end.
Kay
@Baud:
Another fake-debate covering an agenda:
Baud
@Donut: Makes sense. He does the most zealous, so maybe that includes regulation.
Whatever the outcome of both sides’ primaries, our side will be proposing more regulation and more progressive taxation and the other side will be proposing the opposite. So we’ll finally know whether Americans agree with our views on those issues or not.
PurpleGirl
Anybody planning on watching Childhoods End on SyFy? It’s being billed as a 3-night special event. I ‘know’ I’ve the read the book at least three times — there are three hashmarks inside the front cover. But I never remember what the story is about.
Baud
@Kay: As As I think you’ll learn by the end of this term, standing is for the little people.
David Koch
@bystander: Why won’t Obama lead by following the media’s child like panic and hysteria.
It reminds me of when Obama tried in vain to calm down children when mass panic broke out when a bee interrupted story time at the easter egg hunt.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I find standing much easier since I quit drinking.
OzarkHillbilly
@Punchy: Far far far more people have actually voted for Rubio, than people who at this moment think voting for Trump might be a good idea.
MattF
@Elmo: My sister was born on Dec. 7, 1942. But the powers-that-be at the hospital decided that this little girl didn’t need the burden of a Pearl Harbor birthday, so the date on her birth certificate is Dec. 6. ‘Birthday’ is something to celebrate once a year, the exact day is happenstance.
ETA: And she was born via caesarian, so it really was arbitrary.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud:
You are awfully optimistic I’d say. Chances are equally good we might just know who a majority of middle of the road independents want to have a beer with.
Iowa Old Lady
I hear pundits and politicians saying people are very upset and fearful and I don’t recognize the people around me, who seem to be acting and talking exactly as they usually do. Am I in some sort of Midwest bubble?
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
Of course you can. Do what you’re told.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Glad to hear that abstinence has helped your erection problem.
@OzarkHillbilly: That’s only true if I win. No one wants to have a beer with any of the other candidates, so this will come down to ideology.
charluckles
@PurpleGirl:
One of the greatest Sci-Fi books ever written. I had no idea they were attempting/had made a series. Don’t have cable, but will try to hunt that down. Thanks.
SFAW
New to this country, are you?
debbie
@Kay:
Did any of the justices ask about the white kids who had lower grades/scores than Fisher but got in?
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
PLEASE don’t tell us about Date Night, and how you dress up as The Naughty Student and she’s the Buttoned-Up Schoolmarm
SFAW
@debbie:
No, but Fat Nino had Charles Murray waiting in the wings in case someone did.
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie: Not possible. I did not join the military because I am constitutionally incapable of doing what I am told.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady: I’ve come to believe that everyone is in their own bubble nowadays.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Eh, what problem?
Baud
@SFAW: What’s interesting about Cruz v. Hillary to me is that, purely in physical appearance, she seems much more blue collar than he does.
BillinGlendaleCA
Did someone put something in my tea(I blame the Cocker Spaniel(and Obama, of course)) but I’m seeing some changes in the comment pages*.
* Such as the return of comment numbers.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I’m on the mobile site. Looks the same to me.
OzarkHillbilly
@BillinGlendaleCA: me too
PurpleGirl
@BillinGlendaleCA: Yes, comment numbers have returned.
Baud
@PurpleGirl: Yay!
David Koch
I wouldn’t worry about Cruz. The wingers will reject him once Trump informs them that Cruz wasn’t born in the U.S.
Trump is really good this; look at the way he took down Carson, Walker, & Mr. Prohibited Front Runner (¿Jeb ?)
debbie
@Baud:
I can’t imagine anyone wanting to have a beer with Ted, so there’s that.
Baud
@debbie: And I can’t imagine Ted wanting to have a beer with anyone, so the feeling is probably mutual.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: Lest we forget, Cruz in law school refused to let into his study group students from “lesser Ivies.” That speaks volumes.
FlipYrWhig
@debbie: @Baud:
NixonCruz: I’d also like to express, er, my fondness for that particular beer.Homer: The man never drank a Duff in his life.
SFAW
@Baud:
Interesting.
To me, Cruz looks like a child-molesting axe-murderer who lived in his parents’ basement a few decades too long – would that make him look blue collar, white collar, orange collar (doesn’t believe in wiping his hands on a napkin), or blood-red collar?
Germy
Someone took some Dilbert comics strips and replaced the dialogue with actual quotes from Scott Adams’ blog
SFAW
@FlipYrWhig:
Had W been in his study group, Rafael el Menor might have had a “Norman, coordinate” moment. Would have saved us (and the country) a lot of trouble.
Gin & Tonic
Yay, numbers.
Baud
@SFAW: I don’t know if I agree with the parents’ basement part. He seems to pampered for that. Maybe someone who lived in his parents Vail ski lodge too long.
SFAW
@Baud:
No real disagreement, I was just going on his appearance. Well, and his voice, I guess.
Danack
You’re completely missing the “stigginit to the libs” factor.
Even if Rubio was a good candidate, he doesn’t inspire the Republican base any confidence that he is going to stick it to the Libs.
Cruz has already demonstrated that he can stigginit to anyone, including fellow Senators from his own party, and so their is no doubt that he’ll be able to stigginit to the Libs.
And yes, the average Republican voters values stigginit over things like affordable health-care, a governments basic ability to maintain roads or schools.
Elizabelle
Numbers are back! Woo hoo. Good morning, BJ peeps.
@OzarkHillbilly: Missed the injury. How did you break your leg? Wishing you a speedy and complete recovery.
Also: Have not tuned in Morning Joe since he announced, at some point last week, that 51% of Democratic voters think 9/11 was an inside job by George Bush. If that was true, wouldn’t that sentiment be prevalent, or at least discussed, here at Balloon Juice? I think that’s what I heard Joe say, and not facetiously.
Have not lasted more than 3 minutes at a time on Joe and sycophants for months; just curious what they’re (mis)covering and (mis)reporting any given morning.
Baud
@Elizabelle: Glad you’re back. How was the cruise?
David Koch
So I figured out what’s causing the price of Oil to plummet
It’s now down to $34.
It’s reaction to the Climate Change Accord.
It’s fascinating: this chart show Oil was trading for some time around $42 and then early last week, inside information must have leaked causing the market to tumble 20% to $34 in just 6 days.
The same thing happened in July when the Iran deal was concluded. This chart shows the price was trading at $63 and then a few days before the deal was announced, insider info was leaked and the market plunged to $54.
Thanks Obama.
MattF
@Danack: Right, and note that ‘Libs’ is a euphemism for you-know-whats.
Baud
@MattF: Has been since Nixon. “Dems” also.
MattF
@David Koch: Now, just find out who went short on oil futures.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Elizabelle:
He did say that, but his percentages were 35-40%. And your thought about it being discussed often here are also correct if Joe of the Morning’s numbers were in the ballpark. As I commented when he pulled those numbers from his posterior, CT’s of that sort were a banable offence over at GOS .
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone :)
David Koch
@MattF: be kinda funny if environmental groups and Al Gore did
rikyrah
Love this picture of her
Sports IllustratedVerified account
@SInow
The 2015 #SISportsperson of the year is… @serenawilliams! http://on.si.com/Serena
OzarkHillbilly
@Elizabelle: I had an app 300# 6×6 fall on it. Happened last Tuesday.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Hello, !Baud! Missed you.
Loved it. 12-night cruise from NYC to the Southern Caribbean: San Juan, St. Thomas, Tortola, St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Kitts. 3 days at sea each way, and those were the most restful days. Love to watch the ocean and ship’s wake, and chat with the fellow passengers.
Had never been to any of the islands previously, and liked them all. Tortola was the most undeveloped and rustic. Hadn’t realized how vertical many were going to be (volcanic islands).
Norwegian Cruise lines. More affordable than you think for the cabins and cuisine (never ate in a “specialty” — ie. pay extra — restaurant, because the included restaurants were more than sufficient). Loved the whole trip, and sorry to have to disembark. Although we had island weather, of sorts, on Manhattan island. (65 degrees two weeks before Santa Day.)
Missed the San Bernardino shooting as it was ongoing (fortunately for me). Not surprised at all at another mass shooting; mildly relieved this one was not on a school campus. Learning one of the shooters was the jihadist mother of a six-month old daughter did shock. All for women’s progress and pathbreaking, but not that type.
Anyway, highly recommend a cruise to get away and do some thinking. Check for last minute online deals; they are out there. (Although high season in the Caribbean, at least on St. John’s, apparently begins tomorrow.) This was my first cruise, and will not be the last.
Baud
@Elizabelle: I’m a regular cruiser. NCL is the one I tend to go on because of price and amenities work out best. Glad you enjoyed it.
rikyrah
This is who they’ve always been.
………………
GOP: A Neo-Fascist White-Identity Party?
It started 20 years ago, with pandering to racist and xenophobic movements. But today, in Trump’s GOP, it’s not so fringe anymore.I’ve been reading recently about Bill Clinton’s presidency for a project I’m working on, and I just got to the part about the Oklahoma City bombing. What stood out to me, reading over this material in the Era of Trump, is the way a number of congressional Republicans at the time played footsie with the then-burgeoning far-right militia movements in the run-up to the bombing itself.
If you have no memory of that time, here’s what happened in a nutshell. Right-wing militia movements started growing in the late 1980s. In August 1992, federal agents shot and killed a survivalist in Idaho named Randy Weaver, and his wife and son, after a months-long standoff after Weaver had missed a court date (it was on a weapons charge, but the government really wanted him to flip and become an informant on Aryan Nations, and he said no). It became an iconic moment in those circles.
………………..
What’s relevant to us today is the way Republicans and the mainstream conservative movement pandered to these militant far-right groups. Many didn’t merely criticize the ATF and the FBI, which was entirely reasonable under the circumstances, but went beyond that to stoke these peoples’ paranoia about government and suggest/not suggest, in that same way we’re familiar with on those non-answer/answers about Obama’s citizenship, that armed resistance was acceptable. Texas Senator Phil Gramm, who was prominent and respected and at one point a plausible presidential candidate, was probably the highest-profile pol to use such rhetoric, arguably aside from Newt Gingrich himself. And of course Republican and conservative movement stoking of fears about immigrants has been constant.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/14/gop-a-neo-fascist-white-identity-party.html
rikyrah
Polls from Iowa:
The Des Moines Register
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll was released,
1. Ted Cruz: 31% (up from 10% in the same poll in mid-October)
2. Donald Trump: 21% (up from 19%)
3. Ben Carson: 13% (down from 28%)
4. Marco Rubio: 10% (up from 9%)
5. Jeb Bush: 6% (up from 5%)
Fox News Poll:
1. Ted Cruz: 28%
2. Donald Trump: 26%
3. Marco Rubio: 13%
4. Ben Carson: 10%
rikyrah
The Anatomy of Donald Trump’s South Carolina Supporters: Fed Up And Fearful
Dec 14, 2015, 7:17 AM ET
Meet John Wood.
He lives in Aiken, South Carolina, and says Americans should be scared about who is coming into the country. So that’s why he’s for voting for Donald Trump.
“I know I’m afraid,” said Wood, who was laid off from his construction job in 2011 and has since settled into retirement. “We need to know who these people are, and I don’t think they should be able to just come into this country illegally and shoot up people.”
In a series of interviews conducted at Trump’s town hall last weekend in South Carolina, many supporters of the billionaire real estate mogul expressed outright fear — and others a general unease — about the security of the United States.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/anatomy-donald-trumps-south-carolina-supporters-fed-fearful/story?id=35751538
Elizabelle
@BillinGlendaleCA: I am very wary of MSNBC. They repeat GOP talking points so much — sometimes in the guise of debunking them, sometimes not (Chuck Todd’s guests) — and focus so much on Donald Trump, that I think they may be delivering a dose of adrenaline to lizard brains, and normalizing terrible behavior and news by sheer repetition.
I think that may be a strategy of NBC’s corporate owners. MSNBC is a ship of conventional crap “wisdom” and incomplete and insufficient reporting, passed off with “liberals” as the figurehead, although not the actual engine of the enterprise.
And the sheer number of cuts for commercial breaks and network interruptions — which MSNBC “International” filled with promos with Maddow, Hayes, O’Donnell, Harris Perry, and — very occasionally — Andrea Greenspan in a red leather blazer declaring herself a pathbreaker for her gender — was deplorable.
Cruise line had BBC World News as well, and it was overwhelmingly superior. Much less repetition, news from many quarters of the globe, professionally and succinctly reported. BBC gave long segments to covering the UK’s debate on sending support to fight ISIS/ISIL, live, as it happened. It didn’t seem to worry about offending its viewers by covering climate change honestly; BBC assumes a more literate and well-informed audience.
American broadcast news is even more dumbed down than we think. It’s glaring, when you’re away from it.
rikyrah
Obamacare Foe Marco Rubio Insured Under Affordable Care Act
Updated: DEC 12 2015
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio boasts of being the only Republican presidential candidate to have dealt a blow to Obamacare — but he’s also insured under the law.
Rubio’s campaign confirmed to NBC News that the GOP presidential candidate and his family remain insured under the law, through the D.C. exchange. He first signed up in 2013, at which point spokeswoman Brooke Sammon told the Tampa Bay Times that Rubio “spent time looking at all the options and decided to enroll through the D.C. exchange for coverage for him and his family.”
He’s not alone — Sen. Rand Paul signed up for health insurance under the law in 2013, as did all of congressional leadership at the time. Sen. Ted Cruz received insurance at the time from his wife’s employer, Goldman Sachs, and now has private insurance.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/obamacare-foe-marco-rubio-insured-under-affordable-care-act-n478156
BillinGlendaleCA
There’s a warning at the top of the page that “the site may be a little wacky”. I think “wacky” is a technical term.
Elizabelle
@OzarkHillbilly: Oh no! Is the injury fully repairable?
Clearly you’re getting around your house (and coffee pot); how are your immediate prospects otherwise?
Best wishes.
Amir Khalid
@PurpleGirl:
A race of ETs stage a nonviolent conquest of Earth and become our benign overlords. Man becomes a pampered species living for about one generation in an utopia free of war, famine, pestilence, and disease. Then destiny intervenes.
Elizabelle
@Baud: NCL may have to be the campaign vehicle, as advance work for Baud! 2016! continues in the US territories.
Um, assuming said work starts …
Amir Khalid
@Amir Khalid:
Or is that “a utopia”? I am never sure.
OzarkHillbilly
@Elizabelle: Time heals all. I go back to the orthopedist on Wed. At that point in time he will learn that he is not doing surgery.
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
The Rethugs take over, and that’s it for Planet Earth.
Satby
@Iowa Old Lady: I keep checking with the girls to be sure I hear early if they get any shut for being Muslims (they both wear hijab) and they consistently tell me no. When we’re out either people don’t seem to especially notice them or they take pains to be welcoming. People are being told they’re supposed to be fearful, especially of Muslims, so I think that hasn’t worked. At least not very well in this little red portion of SWMI.
SFAW
@BillinGlendaleCA:
True. But I think that’s the term used by some younger tech dweebs. Us old farts tend to stick with its predecessor, “goofy,” or the pre-high-tech term: ” @#$%^&*( “
Chris
@PurpleGirl:
The ads on TV make “Childhood’s End” look like a rip-off/follow-up on the “V” remake of a few years ago – “oh noes, aliens came promising to solve all our problems and bring us nirvana, and we didn’t realize until it was too late that it was all a terrible lie and they had their own agenda!” To which I said “yawn,” and decided not to watch it.
Now that I know (thanks to y’all) that it’s based on a science fiction classic, maybe I will watch it. Although I’m more likely to just read the book.
MobiusKlein
@debbie: if I was with Cruz, I would not just like to drink a beer, I would need about 5!
OzarkHillbilly
@SFAW:
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Elizabelle
@Satby: Glad to hear that.
There were some Muslim women in hijab on the cruise, and I ached for how they might watch us watching them.
ETA: Also met some glamorous Filipinas, in Western attire and dazzling smiles. Muslims.
OzarkHillbilly
@MobiusKlein: I’d go straight to the anti-freeze.
Satby
@Elizabelle: I have not been able to watch or listen to American based “news” for years. I prefer BBC, Al Jazeera, or even the German world news for sources. I mostly read online though.
catclub
From: Federal unit boss
To: Federal employees
All
The President has given all federal government employees a half-day off on Thursday December 24th, Christmas Eve!
Your Boss
Thanks, Obama
Satby
@OzarkHillbilly: I’d slip that into HIS drink. And smile all the way to the pen.
scav
@OzarkHillbilly: So that’s how it’s spelled? I somehow never heard the ^.
jeffreyw
Amir Khalid: So it’s an animal husbandry manual with an appended recipe tips section?
OzarkHillbilly
@Satby: Myself, if I were so compelled, I would go with a little Death Cap. But I’m not like that.
SFAW
@scav:
It’s a New England (or New York) thing. Also, Malcolm Tucker.
You will not be surprised to hear that I am often told “yer saying it wrong, you @#$%^&*( -ing @#$%^&*( “
Chris
@Satby:
Same here, but every now and then family that insists on turning on the television and watching the news comes by. And when they do, I’m reminded how glad I am that I don’t follow TV news.
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
If I offered you a dollar, would you?
ETA: Might help pay for the surgery you insist on not having.
Alain the site fixer
Folks – anyone here using the mobile theme?
I just updated it but it doesn’t seem to show up on my iPhone. So, anyone with a phone that is using the mobile site, can you go to balloon-juice.com and see if you see the mobile site, or just the normal graphical one you see on the dekstop?
Thanks!
Taking a few minute break, but I’ll re-check this thread then. Thanks again.
Amir Khalid
@jeffreyw:
No recipe tips, sorry. Pretty light on animal husbandry, too.
Gin & Tonic
@Alain the site fixer: I’m getting the desktop site on my phone; previously I was getting the mobile site.
scav
Minor giggle. Was checking the next post, listered under wonkery, having left this one momentatrily prectically listed under wonky, or @#$%^&(, or @#%€^&( if you speak European.
dmsilev
@Alain the site fixer: Desktop site. iPhone running iOS 9.whatever.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Alain the site fixer:
Looks like the desktop site on my (Android) Moto X.
ruemara
@Alain the site fixer: I’m always here on my Fire 7″. Normally I get the choice between mobile and desktop, but today it’s just the desktop site. Which I prefer. Kinda hate the mobile interface.
Alain the site fixer
Thanks folks. Mobile site is offline until I can get it working correctly; after the update I just did, it stops crucial WordPress functions from working (which is likely why it isn’t working). I’m working with support….
Germy
New Polls
MSNBC: Clinton would trounce Trump, but lose to Rubio, Carson: NBC poll
Adam L Silverman
@David Koch: He also didn’t have an opponents who’s campaign was secretly negotiating its own foreign policy objectives with a hostile revolutionary power before the election had even been held.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
Was it ever proven that was real? For Nixon in 1968, it’s pretty well established, but for Reagan in 1980, I thought all we had was speculation.
(Which is given a lot of credence by the fact that Nixon had already done it, in fairness).
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: And this is one of the reasons why the 5th Circuit, perhaps the most conservative of the appellate courts, ruled against her twice. And the second time was under instructions to take a more detailed and harder look when the court kicked its decision last time. Like the original litigant in Heller, and all three of the defendants in the latest ACA case, Fisher is a terrible example to test this. The attorneys that take these cases, usually on behalf of some pet idea from a well heeled donor or a well funded think tank that is pushing a pet theory, often can’t find a better litigant.
Amir Khalid
@Germy:
Of the current top two, Trump is an outsider whom the party can’t control, and Cruz is the biggest arsehole in Washington DC. We’ve seen the Republican party do its damndest to promote Marco Rubio, to little avail. Carson is already fading in the polls. It always helps to be lucky in the opponents you get; given that it has all the sane presidential candidates, it’s heartening to see things break the Democratic party’s way.
Matt McIrvin
@Germy: Keep in mind, national popular-vote polls consistently had a bias toward Mitt Romney relative to state-level electoral-vote poll aggregation in 2012. The latter was dead on, as usual.
Nobody seems entirely sure why national polls were worse than aggregated state ones, though I think Nate Silver and Sam Wang speculated that systematic sampling biases were easier to deal with on the level of a swing-state population (and the fine details of sampling in hard red or blue states don’t matter at all).
So I’m a bit skeptical that Clinton actually would lose to Rubio or Carson right now; it’s really close. But I do think these polls are useful for comparing Republican candidates to one another. It’s a bit baffling to me that Carson is currently one of the most electable Republicans (even as he falls in the primary polls), but he is.
tsquared2001
@Germy: Mrs. Clinton losing to Ben Carson? I would take THAT bet in a heartbeat. I’d bet the house AND the garage.
Elizabelle
@Germy: I don’t believe HRC would lose to Rubio or Carson. At all. Who did they poll?
Also: more of your libtard media at work: WaPost front page at top, right now:
Who made the most outrageous claims in 2015?
Illustrated with a four-pack of photos, on front page, of:
Barack Obama ………. Hillary Clinton
Elizabeth Warren ………….Donald Trump
Yes, it’s a Glenn Kessler story. But Jeebus. I guess they decided against the wheel illustration, which could have included Bernie Sanders (yelling) too.
Not linking. Fuck ’em. File under “things that inspire me to let my WaPost subscription lapse.”
ETA: this reminds me of their story on the wealthiest people in Congress. Illustrated with a picture of Nancy Pelosi, rather than Darrel Issa. Guess the she devil is more recognizable ….
Germy
@Amir Khalid:
I agree, because it’s such a rare thing.
@Matt McIrvin:
I think that’s why they were so shocked when Mittens lost: “But the polls…!”
Germy
@Elizabelle:
I suspect the Villagers want the GOP to win everything. I don’t think they’d be thrilled with HRC winning, and if by some miracle Sanders won, they’d be demanding a military intervention.
gogol's wife
@Iowa Old Lady:
Not much panic here in Connecticut. I’d say slightly more panic about insane people who have arsenals in their home, but then we haven’t forgotten Sandy Hook. But even about that it’s not what I would call panic.
Germy
@tsquared2001: I seriously doubt even Carson expects Carson to win.
Adam L Silverman
@Chris: Yes. The journalist who did the original repotting on Iran-Contra was able to get his hands on the Soviet intercepts that were sent to the House committee doing the investigation. They arrived just as Les Aspin was shutting everything down and not pursuing it so as not to politicize policy. The intercepts confirm what the Iranian president at the time has been saying for a while now that the Reagan campaign had connections prior to the election through Ayatullah Khomeini’s son and they made it clear that Iran would be treated better by them, if elected, should they hold onto the hostages. I’ll try to dig up the links later.
gogol's wife
@Chris:
I read that book years ago after reading that it was one of the great masterpieces. I can’t remember a thing about it other than I was bored out of my mind. But then I’m totally allergic to sci-fi, fantasy, etc.
catclub
@David Koch: Slowly the discussion of ‘leaving assets in the ground’ is emerging. It will not be a happy one for oil companies.
Tim C.
@Baud: Libertarians are like Unicorns, they are mythical creatures. Sometimes Conservatives who want to smoke weed or have unconventional sexual habits call themselves libertarians, but when push comes to shove they vote for whatever hairball the Rebublicans cough up every single time on every level.
They are the Hipsters of the GOP.
gogol's wife
@Germy:
Okay, if Clinton loses to Rubio or Carson I am checking out emigration to Norway.
catclub
@Iowa Old Lady: And I thought Iowa was ground zero for fearmongering.
catclub
@Alain the site fixer: Thanks for all your work.
Jimmi the Grey
@Alain the site fixer: late to the game but not getting the mobile site on my phone, and was getting it until I advanced to the next OP. On Motorola turbo2 running Android 5.1.1
Steeplejack (phone)
@gogol’s wife:
BGinCHI is already there. He can probably advise you on that.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: Here are HuffPo’s head-to-head poll aggregations:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-carson-vs-clinton
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-rubio-vs-clinton
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-cruz-vs-clinton
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-bush-vs-clinton
Currently they show Clinton ahead of all of them, but for Carson and Rubio, the average is close enough that a fair number of polls show her behind, so this claim is not outrageously out of line with other national polls. For the other R candidates she’s further out in front. Trump does better than Cruz or Jeb Bush.
The thing to keep in mind is that Hillary Clinton hasn’t even started campaigning specifically against Ben Carson or Marco Rubio, and if they don’t get nominated she never will. So a lot of this is still on the level of “do I have a vaguely positive impression of this person?”
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
That would be welcome, thanks. (I’ve got at least a few friends that I’d like to pass them on to…)
I’ll add that to my already miles-long list of reasons Reagan was a piece of shit, then.
Chris
@Tim C.:
I still think “what Republicans call themselves when they want to get laid” is the best definition of libertarian I’ve ever heard.
Matt McIrvin
@Germy:
It went deeper than that. If you did an honest analysis of the polls in the manner that had been successful for 2004 and 2008, you’d have come to the conclusion that Romney was going to get walloped, in pretty much exactly the manner he was walloped. The state-poll aggregators all knew that unless they were delusional Republican fanboys like the Unskewed Polls guy.
But there was a lot of that delusion going around. Peggy Noonan could feel the energy going to Romney. Karl Rove had the real math.
I guess there were enough numbers that anyone could pick the numbers they needed to feel good.
Our Jeb-troll likes to bring up 2004. The thing that happened in 2004 was that liberals found some leaked early exit polls on Election Day that made them feel good, so they chose to believe them. But at the time, the power of Nate Silver/Sam Wang style analysis wasn’t nearly as established as it is today. Sam Wang was actually doing his thing that year, but even he put his thumb on the scale with a pro-Kerry fudge factor. And when that turned out to be the wrong thing to do, he changed his mind and didn’t do it again. This is why I’ve been paying attention to the guy ever since.
tsquared2001
@Germy: Too true. If there was a political stock market, the Good Doctor would be shorting himself.
Chris
@gogol’s wife:
I’m anything but allergic to sci-fi/space fantasty/etc, so I may check it out. I recognize the basic premise from about a zillion sci-fi stories (the “V” remake being one of them, but episodes of the Twilight Zone, Stargate, etc all did some version of it). By the sound of it, this book was the trope maker that all of these were copying, so if I do read it, it’ll be out of curiosity to see what the original was like.
Ajabu
@Elizabelle:
Just want to throw my Caribbean 2¢ in.
If you want to try some island down time (rather than a cruise) I’d highly recommend St. Maarten.
All our years living in St. Croix – and I’m not suggesting you ignore us there but… our vacation spot
was always St. Maarten. Dutch side. Great shopping. Front Street: Electronics & Jewelry Back Street:
Clothing. Stay at Holland House (fronts on Front St. and rear is the beach.)
And how did you get to the BVI and miss the USVI, anyway? Why do you hate America? ; )
Chris
@Matt McIrvin:
That for me was one of the key moments revealing that the GOP had gone completely around the bend and drunk its own kool aid. I’d been hearing “unskewed polls” nonsense before the election, but I thought it might just be an electoral strategy, Republicans faking confidence for the sake of keeping their voters motivated.
Election night revealed that no, no, they really did believe that if they just said “yeah but Nate Silver’s a homo” and picked polls that told them what they wanted to hear, that would somehow make it real.
Adam L Silverman
@Chris: Here’s a couple, then I have to run:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2013/0305/Argo-helps-Iran-s-dictatorship-harms-democracy
And it was Lee Hamilton, not Les Aspin…
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/04/09/reagan-bush-ties-to-iran-hostage-crisis/
Matt McIrvin
@Chris: The media was playing up the chanciness of the horse race too. I remember a conversation I had at the office on Election Day 2012: my boss said something like “gee, it could really go either way, couldn’t it?” and I and another guy who had been watching this stuff closely basically simultaneously said “nope, Obama is gonna win.” But that wasn’t the impression you’d get from watching TV. I was actually feeling pessimistic relative to the actual electoral-vote margin, because there was motion toward Obama just in the last day or two of the campaign and I wasn’t sure I believed it.
debbie
In Ohio, Planned Parenthood has filed a lawsuit against the worm known as Mike DeWine, the Attorney General, accusing him of politicizing the issue of the disposal of aborted fetuses.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ohio-plannedparenthood-idUSKBN0TX08020151214
A couple of days ago, the AG announced that he had confirmed PP wasn’t selling the fetuses as had been charged, but he stated that he would file an injunction against PP for the inhumane methods of disposal being used. The language used in his announcement was totally inflammatory:
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/12/11/attorney-general-fetal-remains.html
What’s really got me ticked off is that when the lawsuit was announced, it stated that DeWine’s investigation had begun 4 or 5 months ago, so either he moved before or just as the first of the videos were being released. DeWine’s never moved this quickly on anything else.
This tiny toadie has abused his powers once too often. I hope the PP lawsuit ends up hurting him.
ThresherK
Okay, those of you who’ve been following the adventures of my Superannuated Sentra know that I suffered a mishap Friday nite. (Translation: Some lady crashed into me, no witnesses, no injuries, no ticket on the police report.) I will be getting rid of the car in April, and just want to take the money and pocket as much as I can without risk to life and limb.
I’ve done valve-cover gaskets on four cars. I have replaced tires on my motorcycle and they point straigtht forward and haven’t fallen off. I replaced a burst main fuel line on a car without breaking anything by overtightening, without gasoline leaks, and without setting anything on fire or leaving a cartoon-like trail of gas which could catch fire and follow my car to blow it up.
Am I ready to replace my own tie-rod end? I’m a visual learner who has watched a couple of YouTube videos and it looks like its in my ballpark.
Elizabelle
@Ajabu: Good advice. People on the ship were talking about how great St. Maarten is.
This was the appetizer trip. Gonna spend more time on the individual islands next time. Plotting a return!
PS: Isn’t St. Maarten the one with the hair-raising jet approach route? Have seen photos and Youtube.
http://travel.spotcoolstuff.com/caribbean/saint-maarten/maho-beach-airplane-spotting
gex
@Kay: An article I read noted that 148 black applicants that are MORE qualified than Abigail were denied entrance. I hope that comes out in the arguments.
And of course there is also this:
White definitions of merit
For some white people, meritocracy is synonymous with white supremacy/favoritism.
Elizabelle
My comment’s in moderation. Has link to crazy pic of jet landings at St. Maarten.
Tim C.
@Chris: And now, I’m stealing this.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
Oh, thanks! I didn’t mean “now now now!” LOL. Much appreciated.
benw
@Chris: it wasn’t just the pundits and pols, either. The few Republicans I know were *completely* floored the morning after the election. They looked like there had been a death in the family and stood around in little groups quietly asking each other “how could this have happened?” They didn’t see it coming, even a tiny bit. They were just in a completely different information world from me.
Patricia Kayden
@Baud: This is the same Donald Trump who retweeted a White Supremacist claim that Blacks are responsible for the majority of White murders, right?
Matt McIrvin
@benw: What still amazes me was that the Romney campaign didn’t see it coming. They knew less about the state of the electorate than I did, as some random guy poking around on the Internet. (Obama’s campaign, on the other hand, knew everything; they were never not on the ball.)
Elizabelle
@Chris:
Agreed. Word.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Chris:
Just don’t expect the actual twist to be V-like. The ending is a different SF trope.
Oh, and for the SF fans among us, don’t forget that The Expanse is premiering tonight on SyFy. First episode has been available for streaming for a while. io9’s review of the book it’s based on is pretty good; I’d also say that the books are hard enough to suit just about any gearhead without slowing the story down to recount tech specs. I’ve also been heard to call the books “what Traveller campaigns aspire to be”.
Patricia Kayden
@Kay: “Five of those students were black or Latino. Forty-two were white.”
Yet Fisher is the victim of pro-Black affirmative action, or so we are to suppose. ***eye roll*** Unfortunately, I expect this case to strike the death blowl to affirmative action in public instutions.
Matt McIrvin
…about 2004, I guess the other thing that’s worth mentioning is that the 2004 election was honestly incredibly close. It was not-close only by comparison with 2000, which was the kind of situation you only expect to happen in satirical novels.
2004 was close enough that people can make a not-ridiculous case that it was stolen, though I don’t think it actually was stolen (unlike 2000). But the leaked exit polls reinforced that impression for people who wanted to believe it.
2008 and 2012, on the other hand, were close only to the degree that all post-1980s presidential elections have been; they weren’t 40+-state landslides, but in the electoral vote they were solid wins.
Amir Khalid
@Matt McIrvin:
Mitt and his campaign were out of touch with reality about a lot of things. Remember his diplomatically disastrous visit to London around the 2012 Olympics? The Foreign Office, the British equivalent of your State Department, found him to be appallingly ignorant about world affairs and arrogant about it. And the rude (and inaccurate) things he said about the Games prompted a sharp rebuke from David Cameron.
Matt McIrvin
By the way, Krishnamurti’s claim that betting markets predict elections far better than polls is not true, at least for US presidential elections. They may well do better than national popular-vote tracking polls. But they do significantly worse than analyses based on aggregated state polls predicting the electoral vote.
Everything I’ve heard about betting markets is that they basically track popular conventional wisdom about what’s going to happen; for that, I suppose they are useful.
Amir Khalid
@Matt McIrvin:
With someone like Krishnamurti, you gotta keep in mind what side his bread is buttered on.
scuffletuffle
@Alain the site fixer: getting the desktop version on my Android
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@Iowa Old Lady:
Yes, along with the rest of the nation that lives it’s comfortable cocoon, isolating themselves from the real world of the MSM.
catclub
@Patricia Kayden:
I bet you already know to read RBG’s dissent. Those are great, too bad opposing horrible jurisprudence, rather
than supporting better jurisprudence.
Elizabelle
@Ajabu: FYWP might have eaten my reply (in moderation), but thank you for the St. Maarten recommendation. Will get there! Gonna do a more extended island hop one of these days.
Peale
@Chris: It was like how liberals were in 1984 and 88, where there were these secret stashes of voters who were going to come out that weren’t reachable by polls. Or 2004 and 2010 with the denial of the polls because of cell phones.
J R in WV
@Chris:
” miles-long list of reasons Reagan was a [treasonous] piece of shit, then. ”
Fixed that for you!
SFAW
@Patricia Kayden:
Actually, he’s right – sort of. “Sort of” because it’s actually 100 percent (which is technically a majority, but not usually qualified in that way).
Here’s why:
Blacks are responsible for 100 percent of the murders of whites committed by blacks. And blacks are also responsible for 100 percent of the murders of whites committed by whites, because the scary blackity-black black man in the Oval Office had scared them white folk enough that they had to, just HAD TO commit murder.
Blacks are also responsible for the Great Recession, the Great Depression, and the Bubonic Plague thing in the Middle Ages, because reasons. (And because time-traveling Obama used his time machine to make all that stuff happen, especially the disease which wiped out a ton – what was it, a quarter? – of white Europeans.)
ETA: And the fucked-up part of all that is that there are probably some not-infinitesimal number of wingnuts who believe that.
Ruckus
@MobiusKlein:
If I had to spend time in his presence, and it absolutely would be against my will to be there, throwing up on him would be the best option. Saves me the drinking, which I don’t do and gives him the message that I think less of him than vomit. Or really any other effluent.
Sad_Dem
I suppose it’s a battle lost by now, but a podium is what Olympic athletes stand on when they receive medals. The structures that someone stands behind to give a speech and that have surfaces from which to read notes are lecterns.