Everyone called South Carolina for Hillary the second the polls closed, so here’s a Clinton victory thread, if you want one, and some thoughts on November.
With Clinton and Trump looking like prospective nominees, it’s time to take a hard look at the strategy for defeating Trump. Anyone who thinks beating him will be a cakewalk is suffering from a failure of tragic imagination. Josh Marshall is one of the best observers of Trump, and I thought his latest on the genesis of the Trump phenomenon was spot-on. I also was interested in this observation by Kevin Drum, reacting to McConnell’s remarks in the Times saying he will have his Senate candidates break with Trump and run on a “we’ll block Clinton” platform:
Mitch McConnell is the ultimate transactional politician. He never bothers with fancy justifications for what he wants to do; he just tells reporters that his goal is stop x or push y because it’s what he wants, and that’s that. It’s almost refreshing in a way.
So if he’s seriously suggesting that Republicans in significant numbers might break with Trump and hand the election to Hillary Clinton, he’s probably serious. He doesn’t play 11-dimensional chess. I’ve been frankly dubious about all the promises I’ve heard from conservatives about abandoning Trump even if he wins the nomination, and I still am. I think most of them will eventually invent some reason to “reluctantly” pull the lever for him thanks to their existential horror of a Hillary Clinton presidency. But who knows? If McConnell is up for it, maybe it’s a more serious possibility than I think.
Another possibility is some kind of third-party run by someone who would be palatable to more centrist Republicans and the elusive “Independent” voter. Some Republicans I’ve talked with in New York like Bloomberg for this run, but I don’t think he plays well outside of the Northeast. Still, who knows – he has the money and ego required to do it. I think a sane, “centrist” fig leaf Third Man — someone who Republicans who hate Clinton and Trump could choose in order to maintain the fiction that Trump is an anomaly and 2020 will be better days — is a real possibility. Republicans do love to vote, so if they get into a voting booth in November and have a palatable white male candidate for whom they can vote, they’re going to pull for the Third Man. For them, a Clinton presidency just slightly better than a Trump presidency, so why not live through the disaster of either a Trump or Clinton presidency with a “don’t blame me, I voted for the Third Man” bumpersticker on your SUV as it sits in the driveway of your gated community? The question is whether this Third Man can pull enough votes from Clinton-curious “Independents” to give Trump the election.
dr. bloor
Mitch McConnell would do anything up to and including sucking off a dead armadillo on national television to keep his job as majority leader of the Senate. He doesn’t give a shit about anything else, anywhere.
Baud
If people really want to block a Democratic president’s agenda, history suggests they should elect a Democratic Congress.
Gin & Tonic
State filing deadlines start coming up *very* soon.
kbuttle
Coming from the Republican ranks, this Third Man would hand it further to Clinton, I’d surely think, though he’d make Dem’s retaking the Senate much more difficult.
Mike J
Trump sells adulterated penicillin
There should be a joke about Harry Key Lime Pie to tie the threads together.
rikyrah
Matt Murphy @MattMurph24
The Sanders campaign got a harsh reminder today of who the real base of the Democratic party is.
James E Powell
@Baud:
The internets, they are yours for the night!
Applejinx
@rikyrah: …republicans?
I’m sorry. I couldn’t resist. I’ll be good the rest of the thread :)
Patricia Kayden
Wouldn’t a “third man” harm Republicans more than Democrats as it did in 1996? I assume Republican elites will rally around Trump if he is their Party’s candidate. Third Party candidates are DOA in the US.
mistermix
@Gin & Tonic: I think it’s going to be very difficult to launch a third party campaign, but Mike Murphy is out of a job and could give it a shot for the right price.
Mike J
@Patricia Kayden: A third party candidate could give Republicans somebody to vote for, get them in the booth, and let them pull the lever in the downticket races too. If the alternative is having them stay home, Senate leaders would rather have a third party to rope them in.
Splitting Image
The only way McConnell or any other Republican Senators turn on Trump is if he is so far behind in the polls after the conventions are done that their decision makes no difference.
If Trump and Clinton are even remotely close, McConnell will work his tail off to get Trump over the finish line. He may not be a reliable conservative, but he is probably lazy and incurious enough to sign whatever bills McConnell and Ryan put on his desk, like Ryan’s budget plan and the repeal of Obamacare.
That said, I’ve been saying for years that Alf Landon deserves to be remembered for more than winning the fewest electoral votes in a presidential election. I would be perfectly happy if Trump were to take his place in the history books, and a third party candidate splitting the Republican vote could very well do it. If nominated, Cruz might manage it on his own.
rikyrah
Barack Obama showed the way to victory. And, if Donald Trump doesn’t push Latino voting higher, then nothing will.
Gussie
@rikyrah: Run against Hillary Clinton having voted against the Iraq War?
mike in dc
Congrats to Clinton supporters. Bridging the gap between white progressive voters and non-white base voters will have to become an ongoing project, I guess. I’m voting Clinton in general, and hope she wins big.
schrodinger's cat
@Gussie: How is Bertie?
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
Another e-mail from Bernie’s team today. “An Unmistakable Message”. I received it at 7:25 PM.
Not a word about South Carolina.
Again.
Bernie needs to fire whoever writes his fundraising e-mails.
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
Linda Featheringill
Congratulations to Hillary supporters from a Bernie fan. Clinton will probably do well on Super Tuesday, too. But after that, we’ll fight you tooth and nail for every delegate.
But again, congrats and enjoy.
ETA: I know, Bernie supporters are so irritating.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@rikyrah:
Hillary’s speech showed she’s learned from the master. She gets it. She’s got to work on solidifying her coalition, and with Obama campaigning for her through the summer and fall, by November the choice will be as clear as it can be for everyone who’s not a racist moron for Trump. Election 2016 will be “Daddy’s really scary – I want Mommy!”
Jeffro
Elijah Snow approves of this thread…but he really wishes you would consider voting for the Fourth Man
Mike J
One of the things we hear over and over again from brogressives is that your normal, everyday man on the street hatehatehates Hillary Clinton. Funny how she always turns up at the top of most admired woman in the world lists, year in, year out.
SFAW
@Linda Featheringill:
You scream and you leap?
(Apologies for the somewhat obscure reference.)
Mnemosyne
As others have mentioned, the primary effect of third-party candidates has been as spoilers, so the question becomes which direction the Republican establishment wants to go.
Gussie
@schrodinger’s cat: He swindled that scripture-knowledge trophy over the heads of better men, of course.
Applejinx
@mike in dc: It will indeed. I like the mentioning of Corinthians: we don’t see much talk of love here at BJ, it seems all about battling enemies. But in South Carolina, Hillary invokes Corinthians 13.
Sounds… liberal. I like that :)
Hunter Gathers
Get ready for the dumbest POTUS election ever. I have felt a very strong disturbance in the Dumb Side of the Force.
Applejinx
@SFAW: Kzinti! This kind of ferocity could prove worthwhile against Trump :)
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@mike in dc:
I used to call myself a progressive, but I never really want to hear that word again. I’m a proud liberal Democrat, because in the entire history of this racist as fuck country, they’re the ones who’ve actually accomplished all the progress towards racial equality. That’s why tonight was important. White progressives are too unreliable and prove over and over that they can’t be taken seriously. If there’s any crossover between white progressives and Trump, then that’s really quite the tell that it’s not about making progress.
Applejinx
@Mike J: I’m going to be cautious saying this, but it’s not fair to say things like that unless you DATE the ‘hate’. It seems to me fine to hate for instance 90s Clinton, provided you acknowledge she’s learned and changed. It just provides motivation for not backsliding into old, discredited positions. You stick around for a couple decades, you’d better either be implausibly virtuous (and probably ineffective) or prepared to learn.
Our world today is not the world of the 90s.
SFAW
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Fuckin-A right.
Except I never have called myself a “progressive.” But still …
mike in dc
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
I think that’s a bit much of an overgeneralization. Progressives definitely contributed to wins in ’06 and ’08. I would make the distinction between progressive activists and “internet progressives”.
Corner Stone
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: That was a very good speech, and delivery.
Baud
@Corner Stone: I’m watching it now.
Corner Stone
Rachel Maddow has really sunk to a bad level of…something. She is awful.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Via (Trix):
FlipYrWhig
My blue-sky third party “Real Republican” candidate would be John McCain. The media adores him, the Republicans who hate him are already part of the Trumpening, and he’s close to retirement anyway.
Mike J
@Applejinx: In the 90s, most people didn’t hate Hillary. Yes, there were deranged Republicans, but most Democrats loved her, and indies thought she was a tough, smart woman.
Instead, we hear almost every day here that Clinton will lose the general election because she is so widely despised, even though all the polls say the opposite.
SFAW
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
That, and a little bit more.
FlipYrWhig
@mike in dc: My first election after immersion in the blogosphere was 2002. That was a rude awakening about the difference between the excitement of finding a lot of interesting like-minded people online and the reality of how many malignant assholes there were yet to overcome.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
That smell. That gasoline smell…. (video)
Don’t be so gloomy. After all it’s not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love – they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.
FlipYrWhig
@Mike J: The people who despise Hillary Clinton “from the left” never stop talking about it, which makes it seem like there are a lot of them.
rikyrah
AlGiordano
@AlGiordano
Huge data point: African-Americans in South Carolina are the first demographic turning out MORE voters than showed in ’08. #GameChanger
FlipYrWhig
@rikyrah: ooh, THAT is interesting…
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
How many delegates does Reddit and GOS receive?
cmorenc
@rickyrah
The problem with this hypothesis is the assumption that the potential increase in Latino turnout is spread evenly across competitive “battleground” states, rather than being disproportionately concentrated in less competitive states. There definitely IS a huge shift gradually underway in Texas that within two to four more Presidential election cycles will turn Texas from red to battleground purple trending bluish, but it’s not yet there in 2016,
Linda Featheringill
@SFAW:
I’ve been known to do so. But we don’t talk about that.
raven
I have a very progressive friend who wrote an impassioned plea for folks to vote for Bernie in the Georgia primary. She said she would vote for Hillary is she won and it sparked a very good discussion. One asshole buddy of mine ranted about “Queen Hillary” and how she was no different than the Republicans and he convinced me to vote for Hillary.
SFAW
@rikyrah:
It’s all them Black Panthers out trying to scare po’ white folk, to suppress the vote.
Mike J
OT, but flip over to TCM right now to see the guy who directed Bullitt direct a bike race Breaking Away.
raven
@Mike J: The TV series was filmed here in Athens even though it was set in Bloomington.
SFAW
@cmorenc:
Funny, they don’t look bluish.
oldgold
@Corner Stone: @Corner Stone:
Tonight, MSNBC’s coverage is as worthless as tits on a boar.
Baud
@raven: Damn.
@oldgold: That seems to be the consensus.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Mike J: I didn’t know that. I see Peter Yates had pretty good range: The Hot Rock, The Deep, Bullitt, Breaking Away, Eyewitness, The Dress, Mother, Juggs, and Speed. Those films are all very different.
JMG
There isn’t going to be a “third man” if it’s Trump because the Village/Establishment/call it what you will would make that person a complete pariah if Trump were to win.
Anyone who refuses to vote for Hillary “from the left” will suffer a similar fate within the Democratic party, so the only ones who might do so are the principled/cranks/you choose like Naked Capitalism and Glenn Greenwald. It’d have to be closer than Bush-Gore for that to make a difference.
Mega-villagers Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell just said Clinton’s doomed because Trump will kill her in the debates. You could get rich betting against those two. I’m sure Alan Greenspan and the CEO of Comcast think so, and that’s where Chuck and Andrea get their talking points. There’s real tough, and there’s punk tough. Clinton-Trump divides those categories neatly.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@rikyrah:
Yup. This elephant in the room will be danced around in millions of words, because it’s not there.
SFAW
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Maybe. But I thought I heard that the Director’s Cut of Breaking Away ends with Dennis Christopher crashing his bike into a gas station, which explodes.
C.V. Danes
Sorry, but Trump will get demolished in the general. He might be the choice of a certain faction of conservative, but he’s toxic to the majority of American voters.
Mnemosyne
@rikyrah:
Does Black Twitter get to say we told you so yet?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Hillary swept all 46 counties.
Perhaps it wasn’t a good idea to demand the ouster of the first Black President.
Iowa Old Lady
I would very much like it if during the GE debates, mics were shut off when the other candidate is speaking.
Baud
@Baud:
Agree, it was a good speech.
FlipYrWhig
@JMG: Um, I think if anyone in American politics has extensive practice managing an unfiltered man, it’s Hillary Clinton.
Corner Stone
@oldgold: I, personally, have never been against tits. In any of their incarnations that I am aware of.
MSNBC on the other hand? Meh.
Princess
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: That’s exactly what I thought when I heard her speech: “Love, Respect and Kindness.” She’s going to be Good Mommy. Smart
jl
@JMG:
” Mega-villagers Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell just said Clinton’s doomed because Trump will kill her in the debates. ”
Todd and Mitchell are probably correct, if the debates are in front of a GOP base primary voter audience. Even Trump is smarter than those two hacks: I heard him in an interview talking about how he has to moderate his approach for the general election. He knows his act won’t work outside the hothouse of the GOP base.
So, look for a much more sophisticated, moderate, kinder, gentler sounding Trump in the general, with far more gravitas. Or at least, look for a relatively ignorant huckster trying to do that and failing. I think it will be more than latter, at least I hope so.
I think either HRC or Sanders would do very well against Trump in front of an audience of normal people. In front of a GOP primary voter audience, HRC and Sanders would be laughed and booed off the stage, but who cares about that irrelevant hypothetical?
dmsilev
@rikyrah: Does he link to numbers? Without looking at the demographic breakdown, total turnout is down a lot in SC compared to 2008 (over 500K Democratic votes in 2008, probably about 370-380K this time round once the last precincts finish reporting in).
Corner Stone
Speaking of. Why is MSNBC airing Trump pro-propaganda now?
Really?
@oldgold: I was about to say the same just from perusing a few blogs. Now it’s Maddow saying Hillary’s offending Bernie supporters by beating him so badly?!
Frankensteinbeck
I think one of McConnell’s big problems might be that you can’t campaign with Trump. Does he have any interest in down-ballot races at all? And even if Trump won and they tried to campaign with him, he would shoot their campaigns in the back because his positions are all over the board.
If Hillary has any trouble with Trump, I think it will be from that. At least with a regular GOP blowhard you know what direction his bullshit will come from. Trump says whatever he feels like at that moment. He’s for taxing the rich more, then less. He compliments Planned Parenthood, then promises to defund it. You can’t partner with a roulette wheel, and debating one is going to be damned weird.
@rikyrah:
This is especially witty after all those whiny leftier-than-thous who went on and on about how Obama threw the base under the bus.
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
This is also hilarious.
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
I don’t think there’s enough crossover to bother with. Lying about your second choice in politics is a major American tradition. We have huge numbers of ‘independents’ who pride themselves that they are seriously considering the other side. Only a tiny number of them are actual swing voters. A big chunk are the most partisan voters of all. There are just enough people who like to say they’d vote for either Trump or Sanders to make it easy to find anecdotes. A month after Hillary’s nomination is decided, we’ll discover that all the white people are voting the way they’ve always voted.
Baud
@dmsilev: Huh? So is it higher or lower? Weird to get conflicting reports.
ETA: I just reread it. Black turnout is up, while total turnout is down.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@SFAW: hahahhahahahhahahahahhh That’s a good one.
Also too: Jacqueline Bisset was only 23 when they filmed Bullitt. Gawd, she was gorgeous. Now wonder he cast her in The Deep (photo)
Which reminds me – Oscars tomorrow night. Promises to have more drama than tonight, as well as gowns galore.
Anya
@Corner Stone: Did she really say, Hillary is offending Bernie supporters by winning by 50 points? I saw that on twitter and I can’t believe it.
FlipYrWhig
@Really?: What is the matter with her lately? I remember her going on a tirade on one of the other election nights about how as a young gay person she thought Bill Clinton didn’t have her back when Pat Buchanan did the infamous culture war speech. First of all, pretty much the first thing Bill Clinton did after the election was try to help the status of gays in the military. Second of all, Rachel Maddow is chummy _with Pat Buchanan_. Seems a little harsh to hold a grudge against The Clintons under those conditions.
pseudonymous in nc
@Corner Stone:
Because he’s a company man, even if he broke with the peacock over pageants and presidenting.
And because the American political media establishment is fascist-curious.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: She was always awful, except as an interviewer. Her schtick was always the highly credentialed, nerdy naif. Given it takes very little to get a DPhil from Oxford (as in ranging from writing a very large check and not having to actually matriculate in the program to paying three years of fees and turning in a doctoral thesis and defending it – there are no classes), the high credential is more ceremonial than anything. I can no longer tell if she’s playing naive or she is naive. The only tell is she’s made herself an insider in the political media, so my take still leans to playing the naif and laughing all the way to the bank.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
And this is a big reason I’m glad Hillary is winning. Bernie’s Revolution was based on his belief that when offered a chance to strike back against the rich, the American people would turn out in record numbers. The theory is failing in practice right in front of us.
sm*t cl*de
@SFAW:
I guess the ‘S’ stands for ‘Speaker”.
Frankensteinbeck
@FlipYrWhig:
Everybody has their personal peeves. I guess the Clintons are one of hers.
BR
We need to get going with lots of on the ground community organizing at the door to door, neighborhood level. We need to mobilize our voters at a level beyond that of 2008 — in every precinct in every state. It can be done. But we need to start focusing on it now.
eemom
@Corner Stone:
Can you elaborate? I don’t like her either, but almost never watch teevee anymore, so I’ve kind of lost touch with why I don’t like her….though I did hear her say some concern trollish bullshit about the low Dem turnout in the NH primary being BAD NEWS for us in the general election.
Anyway, like most lefty emmessemm figures with a gushing adoring fanbase, she’s vastly overrated.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Hillary only won South Carolina by 48% – so it was basically a tie
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Winning a Rhodes scholarship is not nothing.
FlipYrWhig
@Frankensteinbeck: In certain precincts of the blogosphere it’s been an article of faith for a long time that liberals were dispirited because nobody was trying to win their vote, so if someone came along that _was_ trying, they’d surge and the Democrats would win and having proved it to work it would work forever, and the only reason Democrats _weren’t_ doing this was because they were corrupt and essentially taking a dive for their paymasters. Bernie Sanders has been trying to win their votes. He’s not even winning elections comprised solely of Democrats. Huge failure for the theory.
FlipYrWhig
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: When she was up by 20 she should have taken a knee. No class.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: So it’s actually more AA voters than in ’08, not just a higher percentage of those who voted? That’s really great.
Do you follow him on twitter or did you sign up for his other social media place – tau? I don’t do any social media, but I have been thinking about maybe signing up for that in order to follow Al.
trollhattan
So, all the way across this great republic from South Carolina, in the home of the original Magic Kingdom, this happened today.
Great country, or greatest country?
SFAW
@sm*t cl*de:
Well, I might weigh as much as he did, but I’m considerably shorter. And certainly nowhere near as tough. So, no.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
On Twitter, Sanders’s supporters have gone dark. It’s as if been taken by the Rapture.
Steve in the ATL
@Hunter Gathers:
Not sure how it stacks up against old timey elections, but the dumbest one I can recall was Kerry v. Bush. I’m not sure this one will be dumber, because Hillary will quickly shut down the Donald’s stupidity any time they go head to head, whether in person or through headlines and tweets.
Amir Khalid
What’s the delegate scoreline?
Baud
@trollhattan: I don’t know if I should be pleased or offended at the absence of guns.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@FlipYrWhig: She must have hired Jimmy Johnson to run up the score
Mr. Twister
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: There’s this.
mike in dc
I’m great with “liberal”, “progressive”, whatever. The only labels I’m uncomfortable with are “neoliberal”, “New Democrat”, “Third Way” and “corporatist”. I think some of the resistance/reluctance to support HRC is related to her past associations with those labels. To the extent she is moving away from that, all the better.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@FlipYrWhig:
If I were a Sanders supporter I’d sue him for political malpractice. Everyone smart about politics knows that his target demo is unreliable and can’t be taken seriously. Obama had the winning blueprint, but I guess Bernie just knows better than President Black Ninja. Also Cornel West seems to not have been the smart play/
Ninedragonspot
Hypothesis: “Identitarian politics” is the “gonadal politics” of the 2016 campaign.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Amir Khalid:
dww44
@raven: Sorta same thing happened to me, except that certain commenters at Booman’s place, including Booman himself, pushed me into Hillary’s corner. Till then I was sitting on the fence.
Interestingly, Younger African-American members of the local Dem Party’s Facebook group have really been pushing Bernie and the only yard sign I’ve seen was a Bernie one in an AA neighborhood. As far as I can tell neither candidate has any sort of grassroots campaign here. Whoever wins the nomination better have a ground game like Obama did in 2008 and in 2012, otherwise we are gonna get swamped in November.
Steve in the ATL
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Ha–that is a comment you can drop just about any time his name comes up!
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I would be bummed, too, if my candidate lost by a lot. What’s there to say? You’re disappointed, really disappointed, you have to work through it. If it were me, I wouldn’t be working through anything on twitter.
edit: Empathy and compassion; President Obama is all for them.
Mr. Twister
@dww44: Really, I thought Booman was supposed to be sane or something. They pushed me over the edge for Hils as well.
WarMunchkin
Regarding McConnell, it’s not the idea of getting Republican voters to the polls that scares me – they’re going to vote anyway – it’s that low information Democrats usually pick up on beltway “balance” memes. As in, people will actually believe, “yeah, we should have Republicans to balance out Democrats so everything will be okay”. I’ve heard this from not politically active people frequently. McConnell has been invaluable for the Republicans, and he knows what he’s doing, and Democrats have shit civic infrastructure to counter it.
Steve in the ATL
@mike in dc:
Valid concerns, and also valid complaints about Obama. She is more liberal than Bill was, but she will also be dealing with a horrendous GOP House and maybe a GOP Senate, so Bernie-style democratic socialism or socialist democratism isn’t going to happen anyway.
Gex
@FlipYrWhig: Honestly, I flat out laughed at people in my FB feed. They are convinced Bernie can bring the revolution while at the same time whining about caucuses and superdelegates being unfair.
I told one guy that Bernie could have joined the Dems earlier and advocated for reforming the nomination process. The response came back, “Like the Dems would have listened to him.” And this was meant to sell me on his candidate’s amazing ability to bring on the revolution and change politics in this country forever.
I suppose deep down I was probably always leaning towards Hillary but I hadn’t committed to it. I was trying to be open and give Bernie a chance to persuade me. He never managed that, and his supporters only managed to reveal to me that I really do support Hillary. Caucusing for her Tuesday in Minneapolis.
Ampersand
My serious response:
Congrats to Hillary. I’ll vote for her, though my enthusiasm level is currently hovering around 0%.
My snarky response:
A pro-war, “don’t rock the boat” corporatist won big in South Carolina, and people are acting like it’s a big deal? That’s sort of a dog-bites-man story, isn’t it?
raven
@dww44: Yea, this dude is a NewYorican and knows everything there is to know about everything. He was even on Kinky Friedmans campaign staff!
WarMunchkin
Whether you’re for Sanders or Clinton, I’d like to single out this special little snowflake at Salon.com as someone we can commonly mock:
From I don’t care if no one approves: I’m a leftist feminist and I’m not voting for Clinton, Sanders or anyone in 2016:
Privilege.
Baud
@WarMunchkin: Thanks for finding a common enemy for the group.
Mr. Twister
@WarMunchkin: Or the article about how Clinton has a problem with Black voters.
raven
@WarMunchkin: I’ll bet she’s fucking gluten free too.
Iowa Old Lady
@WarMunchkin: I once saw a clip of John Lewis talking about some bill that made voting harder. He said voting was sacred. People he knew had died for the right to vote. That shames me every time I think about how I’m too busy to get to the poll or some such crap. I should see if I can find that clip.
trollhattan
@Baud:
Stoopid California and its stoopid open-carry laws. Thanks again, Black Panthers and Ronny Raygun.
WaterGirl
@WarMunchkin: I won’t click on Salon – who is this woman who’s dumb enough to sit this one out?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Ampersand:
On behalf of my beautiful daughters and their black husbands I’d like for you to consider that the stakes for them, and everyone else without the privileges you seem to take for granted, are really unacceptably high.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Obama won the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses in 08 both by 34 pts (66-32).
These are Sanders’s best chances to win on Super Tuesday. If he doesn’t, then I don’t see how he wins another state (other than VT).
Then I don’t know what use there is in continuing a campaign that loses 48 states.
raven
@Iowa Old Lady: I’ve said it before but I came home from Vietnam 2 months before my 20th birthday and couldn’t vote for 14 months!
WaterGirl
@Baud: Our common enemy: only two letter difference between Salon and Satan, you know.
Oh, I bet you meant the unnamed female who was quoted.
Oldgold
Not much Bern in Sanders’ speech.
When he talks about substantive matters he connects. When Sanders dwells on process – not so much.
WarMunchkin
@WaterGirl: I don’t really recognize the name “Elizabeth King”, but this was on the sidebar when I was reading one of digby’s columns, which is how I found it. My face hasn’t recovered from the palm-shaped bruise.
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Al Giordano has me convinced that unless something turns on its head, it’s pretty much impossible for Bernie to get enough delegates to win.
Aleta
Asking out of serious not-knowing: Would an Independent ticket of Rubio + Cruz (essentially a Tea Party ticket even if it would not be called that) be possible?
Calouste
@Gin & Tonic: Bobby Jindal also was a Rhodes Scholar.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
The real test is Massachusetts. He’s dropped 15 points in a little over a week. Massachusetts is Democratic.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Ampersand: when you mock, ignore, dismiss, and disrespect black voters, don’t cry when you lose them by 90%
Iowa Old Lady
@raven: This is Lewis at the 2012 convention giving a version of that speech. The man is my hero.
trollhattan
@Calouste:
Somewhere, Rhodes weeps.
Ninedragonspot
@Ampersand: pro-war, corporatist African-Americans are, of course, legion in South Carolina.
Amir Khalid
@WarMunchkin:
Salon will be interesting to read in the next few weeks, if only to see how its more, um, committed Bernistas react to their guy falling further behind.
amk
@WarMunchkin:
“I consider myself to be politically savvy.”
LMAO.
Calouste
@WarMunchkin: If someone doesn’t vote, they don’t care deeply about politics. In this case, they’re just having a tantrum. If she wanted to anything to the left of Sanders, she could vote Green Party, or write someone in. If you stay silent, no one will hear you.
WaterGirl
@WarMunchkin: So full of themselves!
I really liked the Conster’s comment above:
Arrogant people who can’t see beyond their noses. Just another version of I’ve got mine, fuck you. Sadly, I’m sure that describes me sometimes, too. But I suspect it’s a lot less often than it used to be, at least I hope it is.
dww44
@Mr. Twister: To be fair, Booman is sane, but when he decided to opt for Bernie, it was as if he couldn’t stop the anti-Hillary stuff, and that just further motivated certain commenters to go all in with the anti-Hillary rhetoric. Result, I only read posts over there that don’t have anything to do with Bernie vs. Hillary. And even then I mostly stay away from the comments.
Baud
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Kevin Drum just out up a chart showing the poll aggregates in South Carolina. It’s quite amazing
Thoroughly Pizzled
@Calouste: As was David Vitter! The Rhodes committee has a lot to answer for.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Baud:
Holy smokes – that’s some chart (photo)
I guess his carriage turned into a pumpkin.
Matt McIrvin
So the pattern is that white people aren’t turning out for Democrats. That is still scary–the Sean Trende scenario is the way Trump wins: if he can get something like 66 or 67% of whites he needs no non-white votes at all. I wouldn’t have thought that possible, but he’s working white crowds into an insane frenzy and doubling turnout at R caucuses. If white Democrats are so demoralized they won’t turn out at all, either for Sanders or Clinton, that’s a problem.
WarMunchkin
@Calouste: It’s really just incredible privilege. I strongly disagree with our current foreign policy approaches – the nonstop bombing of unruly brown people and their indefinite detention is a total fucking blight, as is most of the things we do with civil liberties. But everything in our society – from roads to clean air to the right to use public fountains, for people who don’t necessarily look like me or had the privileges I did – were fought for and earned primarily through the process of politics and democracy. To angrily withhold my voice, when it could be used to protect those people, would be an incredibly offensive thing to do.
Just testing my argument for gently persuading my more apathetic friends to vote in Nov. And I’m <30 y/o, so that's a chore on its own.
James E Powell
@Aleta:
There is no way Cruz or Rubio would ever agree to be the other’s VP.
We will know a lot by late night Tuesday – I’m thinking it will be over for one of the two.
Calouste
@trollhattan: Rhodes would probably weep more because Jindal is Indian rather than because Jindal is stupid.
amk
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: after the fact truthiness. gotta love it.
James E Powell
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m not going to dismiss the idea that there will be Trump Democrats, but I’m not letting crowds of angry white people on the TV represent American voters of the pale hue generally.
WaterGirl
@Baud: You made it past 15, but you forgot to include a link!
Edit: never mind, David Koch posted a link. But I don’t understand the chart, what’s so impressive about it?
Ruckus
@WarMunchkin:
Could this be the right Elizabeth King?
Mike J
@Aleta: Sore loser laws prevent people who lost primaries from running in the general in many states.
dww44
@Iowa Old Lady: I’ve seen that clip recently somewhere but don’t remember where. It would be good for Democrats and those inclined to vote for them to have that video replayed as a PSA in the weeks just ahead of the election. For those of us who canvass door-to-door, it would also be good to have a printed version to hand to voters.
Has anyone ever heard anyone, even and especially including Republicans, speak ill of John Lewis? I’ve not. There’s just something so incredibly sincere, well-meaning, and just downright decent about the man and everyone instinctively knows that he has earned every ounce of the respect he’s been accorded.
Steve in the ATL
@raven:
Damn–you are racking up the POTD nominations!
Matt McIrvin
As for the third man, the one who would defeat Trump wouldn’t be Bloomberg: his gun control stance means he gets no Republican votes, only centrist Democrats.
Baud
@WaterGirl: The steep drop off in Bernie’s support. I’ve never seen anything so sudden in polling.
Calouste
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I guess they earlier polls had crappy voter screens, which is somewhat confirmed by the high AA turnout. All the polls going back until mid November are likely voters. I also noticed that Clinton was running between +40 and +50 from the moment Biden dropped out in mid October until mid December, which might have been the point when the pollsters adjusted their likely voter screens.
Frankensteinbeck
@James E Powell:
I am as afraid of Trump’s passionately cheering crowds as I am of Bernie’s. Obama-hate has squeezed the white vote dry for the GOP. Trump won’t top it. He has good primary turnout because the GOP primary is exciting and ours isn’t. The vast majority of Dems would be delighted with either Bernie or Hillary, so they’re not going to flood a primary.
On the other hand, Trump has negatives like no one has ever seen before in presidential politics, and Hispanic groups are getting out and doing voter registration just because they hate him – and they hate him. He’s running -50 approval with Hispanics. Only 10% of GOP voters are non-white, but they can’t afford to lose, say, 5% of their voters permanently.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Well, I saw that, but I didn’t see a corresponding upswing for Hillary, and that confuses me. I have to confess, though, that I don’t usually look at polls, so maybe I’m just being dense.
Steve in the ATL
@trollhattan:
Indeed–this is the lone stain on his legacy!
Steve in the ATL
@Ninedragonspot:
Here is an exhaustive list of them:
Scott, Tim
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Matt McIrvin:
Democrats haven’t won the white vote in a presidential election since the Voting Rights Act passed. True story. Dems can win with 40+% of the white vote, and 80% of everyone else’s. Racist morons for Trump want to make this a wave election which they are in their primary, but there simply aren’t enough of them in the general, unless we don’t show up. Obama beat an anodyne Romney in a landslide! Have faith!
Calouste
@Mike J: Wikipedia says that only in a few states sore-loser laws apply to the Presidential election.
Weaselone
@Ampersand:
If Hillary were really a pro-war, “don’t rock the boat”, corporatist do you honestly think that Republicans would have bothered smearing her for the last 25 years with a significant assist by our corporate owned media?
Baud
@WaterGirl: Right. It wasn’t one for one. As someone said above, probably the early polling wasn’t done very well.
Andy
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I wouldn’t be so….douchey.
A Trump Presidency will not you like.
WaterGirl
@Baud: This is such a weird election cycle. It may not be that opinions of Bernie changed that rapidly; perhaps they became convinced, as I did, that Bernie won’t be able to win in the general. It’s also true that there were a lot of unforced errors on Team Bernie in February.
Edit: My personal policy is vote with your heart in the primary and vote with your head in the general. But Trump and the other danger-men scared the shit out of me so I felt I had to move into “head” mode now. Maybe I’m not the only one!
beltane
@Matt McIrvin: Bloomberg would not take any votes away from either Clinton or Trump. His following outside the punditry is close to zero.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Matt McIrvin: not really.
NBC/WSJ Poll — Reaction to Trump Nomination — Feb 24 thur 25
Scared……………51%
Angry…………….24%
Surprised………20%
Hopeful………….25%
Excited………….12%
None……………….8%
(photo)
When 3 quarters of the country is either frighten of or hates you, then you can’t win.
Steve in the ATL
@dww44:
I live in Georgia so I hear rednecks talking shit about him, but I’ve never heard anyone at the federal level do so
beltane
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Why wasn’t ‘amused’ an option?
Steve in the ATL
@Baud:
Not since Monty Burns couldn’t swallow a bite of Blinky, the three-eyed fish
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: “When 3 quarters of the country is frighten of and hates you, then you can’t win.”
From your lips to god’s ears, as the saying goes.
James E Powell
@beltane:
Gleeful, also too
msdc
@dww44:
Other than these fine patriots, of course:
Mike J
@Calouste:
It also say many states have registration deadlines for the general that are the same as the primary, Almost all the primary ballot deadlines have already past.
dww44
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
I hope you’re right, but in my experience, with waffly voters on our side of the electorate, a ground game is essential. That’s what Obama had and that’s what HRC and/or Bernie will need in place by convention time. Earlier if possible, given all the recently erected hurdles to voting in many parts of the country.
Joel
At the end of the day, minorities in conservative states have the most to lose in s republican administration, and I think today’s results demonstrate the risk aversion that understandably stems from that.
mclaren
Gimme a break. Trump is easy to beat with any Democrat.
Trump is a bully with a glass jaw. Look at how he flailed and thrashed just trying to fend off Rubio’s ineffectual attacks. When Hillary opens up on him with a full Mitty-Romney-style attack, Trump will disintegrate. His twitter feed will turn into QWERTYUIOP gibberish.
Origuy
@raven: The TV series was filmed here in Athens even though it was set in Bloomington.
beltane
@James E Powell: Trump is pretty funny most of the time. I avoid watching debates as a general rule but the clown car this year has been must-have t.v. in my house.
msdc
@Baud: Credit Cornel West with at least 20% of that.
If the results out of South Carolina lead the cable networks to stop trotting him out as the voice of the people, I will consider this a great day for democracy.
nutella
@Iowa Old Lady:
I remember a picture in the news when the South African election included black voters for the first time. Pictured were three elderly black women walking miles to the polling station. One of them was crippled so the other two were carrying her. They were not going to miss their first opportunity to vote.
I think of them whenever I hear that voting turnout is down here because of a bit of rain.
beltane
Commenting with the kindle really sucks.
WaterGirl
@Joel: Black people aren’t stupid. I may get clobbered for saying this, but I don’t think AA people vote against their own interests like a lot of white people seem to do. There’s certainly a lot less of I’ve got mine, fuck you.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@mclaren: This. Trump lost so badly to an empty suit like Lil Marco that he had to hire a mob hit man as a body guard (photo).
Calouste
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I wouldn’t say three-quarters, as the total adds up to significantly more than 100%, so people were allow to pick more than one option, and there is probably a significant overlap between scared and angry.
On the other hand, it could be that NBC\WSJ simply can’t add up, which might actually be the likelier possibility.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: Cecil Rhodes was no great prize.
The Lodger
@Jeffro: Vote locally. Think Planetary.
Andy
@mclaren: I hope you are right. A lot of you big city dwellers think like you’re in a “bubble” also too.
Actually I don’t. Trump is so “Apocalypto”.
Could be a good thing, IMO.
mclaren
@Frankensteinbeck:
Don’t be. Trump has the highest negatives of any candidate currently polling. His negatives are 27%, which is unprecedented for any presidential candidate. That right there is death march territory. And Hillary’s ads and his shitty performance against her in the debates will drive his negatives much, much higher.
Look, you people were worried about Hillary’s high negatives. But at 17% she’s 10 points better than Trump. Trump is the ideal candidate for Hillary to run against.
The other point is that billiionaires always do poorly in general elections. They don’t get politics. They’re used to business, in which, as long as you can legally get away with screwing the other guy, you’re home free. But in politics, if you get away with screwing people it follows you and eventually destroys your rep and makes you unelectable.
Trump is toast. Hillary will be the next president.
Calouste
@WaterGirl: AA people having a lot less of “I got mine, fuck you” probably has something to do with the fact that due to 400 years of slavery and discriminatory policies, “mine” for a lot of AA people just isn’t much.
WarMunchkin
@Ruckus: Probably. I don’t really want to ruin someone’s career over a column like that, but man, if that’s the type of logic we’re going to deal with to get people to vote, I’m going to be depressed for the whole election season.
dww44
@Steve in the ATL: As do I, live in Georgia that is, but not in the ATL area. Even here in the middle of the state, state and local Republicans never speak ill of Lewis, when they’ve no such reservations about other AA office holders, and I’m not talking about President Obama. That’s a whole other category.
Frankensteinbeck
@mclaren:
That was sarcasm. Bernie’s passionately cheering crowds also did not show up at the polls. I agree with all your arguments.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
The five stages of grief:
5. denial
4. anger
3. bargaining
2. depression
1. acceptance
I decided to peruse GOS and even after getting blown out by 48 pts, far exceeding expectations, they’re still stuck in the denial stage.
It’s like those Japanese soldiers they found on isolated islands in the late 60s who thought WWII was still going on.
Fair Economist
I think Trump seemingly having won the Republican nomination is driving support back to Hillary. When you’re facing something that scary, you want somebody familiar, steady, and reliable. Bernie’s a much bigger risk.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@WaterGirl:
The AA community votes for its survival, every election. No group has been sold out as much after every election as the AA community, yet, they keep voting Democratic. We Democrats need to honor that! Whites know that the country’s running an operating system that if nothing else, at least it grants them an unearned privilege for just being part of the dominant tribe so it’s not as urgent, and that won’t change for a long time.
WaterGirl
@Calouste: I thought about saying that, too, but I thought I would get clobbered for sure!
Andy
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I think that was “Gilligans Island”.
beltane
@Fair Economist: Who were the not-scary Republicans? Pataki? Gilmore?
Calouste
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: The Japanese soldiers had the excuse that they didn’t really get a lot of information from the outside world. Sandernistas don’t have that excuse.
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Yeah, the writing may be on the wall – I think it is – but Hillary kept going in 2008 long after it was even POSSIBLE to get to a winning number of delegates. So I’m not gonna blame anyone who is a true believer for not giving up just because the writing is on the wall. I will blame them, however, if they keep going after it’s just not possible to win.
nutella
@Ruckus:
Yes. She lists the Salon article on her clips page.
FlipYrWhig
@dww44: Bernie Sanders supporters bagged on John Lewis for days after he said he didn’t remember meeting Sanders in Civil Rights days.
Calouste
@beltane: To be scary, you have to get noticed first. So, yes.
dww44
@Gin & Tonic: I read Trollhattan’s comment as meaning exactly that.
mclaren
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Exactamundo. In fact, just the shenanigans that have already gone on with Trump on the campaign trail provide such deadly ammunition against him in the general election that he’s already toast.
Think about it: in the general election, all Hillary’s super-PACs have to do is play around-the-clock clips of Donald Trump ridiculing that reporter with a neurological disability…accusing Megan Kelly of asking his vicious questions because “she had blood coming…out of her, wherever,” clips of Trump urging the crowd to beat up that black protester, clips of Trump explaining “I would do a lot worse than waterboarding,” clips of Trump fumbling and stumbling and bumbling and bungling at the debate where he found himself reduced to yelling over both Rubio and Cruz at once and calling them “liars” and “choke artist,” that clip of Trump explaining how we need to cut the minimum wage…
Ye gods, the sheer amount of material Trump has already provided to the Demos as oppo material is mind-boggling. Just think what Hillary’s research team can come up with when they digging into Trump’s past.
You think Trump isn’t mobbed up to make sure he doesn’t have labor problems on his buildings? You think Trump doesn’t cheat on his taxes with carried-interest loopholes that makes Mitt Romney’s tax rate look high by comparison? You think Trump doesn’t employ hordes of undocumented immigrants in his hotels? You think Trump isn’t guilty of all kind of underpayment wage con jobs and tax withholding scams for all those undocumented immigrants working at his buildings?
Trump is going down hard. It’s going to be tough to say anything meaningful about Trump’s defeat in November because of the sheer depth of the crater and the size of the debris field. It’s going to be historic.
Folks, I knew the general election was in the bag the moment Romney chose that Ayn Rand twit Paul Ryan as his veep. This time around, I knew the general election is in the bag for the Demos the instant Trump started surging at the polls.
Fer cripes sake, Republicans are already urging their fellow conservatives to vote for Hillary (Kagan in that WaPo op-ed).
Stop worrying. Hillary has got this one.
WaterGirl
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: “The AA community votes for its survival, every election. No group has been sold out as much after every election as the AA community, yet, they keep voting Democratic. We Democrats need to honor that! ”
Absolutely!
If you’re black or brown or poor, you may as well shoot yourself in the head as vote for one of these dangerous republican candidates for president. I”m white and I have enough money, and I’m terrified of what will happen if one of these guys wins an election. I can’t even fathom how much scarier it must be if you are paying attention and you’re black or brown or poor or female or, or, or…
Frankensteinbeck
@WaterGirl:
I heard the argument that Sanders will keep going, not to win, but because he believes his message needs to be heard. I am totally cool with that. I may not think he’s the better candidate or would make the better president, but having more people connect with liberal philosophies and goals is only a good thing.
Steve in the ATL
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Appalachian whites are similarly situated, yet they vote Republican. Makes it hard for racists to argue that whites are smarter than blacks….
beltane
@Calouste: The ones who made it to the main debates were all extremely scary.
Cacti
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
I call myself a liberal Democrat, and not a progressive, because I don’t trace my political lineage to good government Teddy Roosevelt Republicans or the Bull Moose Party.
Mike J
@FlipYrWhig: And there was absolutely nothing wrong with what Sanders did in the civil rights movement. He just wasn’t a big part of it besides being in a march or two. He never argued that he was. Only the deranged cultists[1] thought he was more.
[1] Not All Berniebros. Like Not All Men, I don’t want anyone to think I’m unfairly mischaracterizing them.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings:
Barack Obama? (Feb 20, 2016)
Approve………….50%
Disapprove…….46%
George W. Bush ?(Feb 20, 2008)
Approve………….31%
Disapprove…….65%
NBC/WSJ Poll – Trump Ratings — Feb 14 thur 16
Approve……..….28%
Disapprove…….59% ☠
Please Proceed, Donald?
He’s “Box Office Poison” and like the Titanic he’s taking the gop Senate with him
blup… blup…. blup…
James E Powell
@beltane:
There is no such thing as a not-scary Republican. Even the mildest mannered ones are going to appoint radical right wingers to every court and corporate thieves to every executive branch position. They will all start a war somewhere. The last Republican who did not initiate military action in another country was Hoover.
WaterGirl
@Frankensteinbeck: Actually, I’m cool with that too, now that I see what you’ve written.
I want to see more “debates” where there are scheduled topics, like is being suggested for the upcoming debate: the Flint water crisis and I can’t remember what else. Pick two topics and don’t actually have them debate. Just have both of them stand up there and talk about what they believe about X and Y.
This is what I believe related to infrastructure. This is what I believe related to voting rights. Etc. Get the whole platform out there, and let’s see the differences between the two positions, even if Bernie gets to the point where he can’t “win”. And see the contrast with the scary clowns on the other side.
That would also eliminate bullshit “questions of the day” related to the latest “scandals” or republican talking points.
Oh, and get a drone to take out Chuck Todd.I didn’t actually mean that last part, but it did feel good to vent for a moment.I think it would be very edifying.
beltane
@James E Powell: Most American presidents since WWII have initiated military involvement in other countries. It’s what the Republicans do to Americans that really sets them apart.
Frankensteinbeck
@Steve in the ATL:
No, it doesn’t. It makes it harder for you to argue, because you have some grounding in reality. I’ve lived among them most of my life. They’re convinced that their economic suffering is because the government takes their money, gives it to the undeserving, and tries to stop them from living a good Christian life. They are the friendliest, hardest working, most moral people on Earth, and they will beat the shit out of any negro, queer, or hippy who challenges that.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Cacti:
Let’s march forward under the liberal Democratic banner, Citizen, and consign Brogressivism to the ash heap of history as yet another failed children’s crusade.
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Here’s what seems crazy to me:
Barack Obama? (Feb 20, 2016)
50 + 46 = 96
George W. Bush ?(Feb 20, 2008)
31 + 65 = 96
NBC/WSJ Poll – Trump Ratings — Feb 14 thur 16
28 + 59 = 87
How is it possible that 13% of people have no opinion at all about Donald Trump???
Edit: I realized as I pressed post that my low information voter sister probably has no opinion about trump. :: sigh ::
Shalimar
@mike in dc: Those past discretions aren’t Hillary Clinton’s worst. According to Jeff Sharlet’s book The Family, Hillary attended White House meetings of that group in the late 90s.
Isobel
Yay Clinton! I need a place to celebrate that she won. I really do hope that no independent runs, but I agree it’s a distinct possibility.
BBA
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Trump’s historical antecedents won power without majority support through violence and intimidation.
Now, the Blackshirts and Brownshirts didn’t spring up overnight, and I doubt Trump can or will organize a formal paramilitary like them. On the other hand, there are already gangs of “Blueshirts” terrorizing much of the population, paid and armed by the taxpayers to boot. Judging from the cesspits of “Thee Rant” and its ilk I have no doubt that our nation’s police departments lean strongly pro-Trump.
To be clear, I don’t think it’s very likely that the police will intimidate voters or otherwise subvert the election apparatus in order to hand Trump the election, or stage a coup in case Trump loses the vote. But I didn’t think Trump would make it this far either.
Cacti
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Hasta la victoria, siempre!
Mike J
I watched Leicester this morning so I missed the Chelsea game (it’s on match of the day now), but does anybody else always hear Southampton’s star’s name as Chaise Lounge?
mclaren
The elephant in the room you guys and gals are not seeing is the implosion of the Republican party. This time, it really is different. This is historic.
The sheer craziness and viciousness of all the Republican candidates this year goes beyond anything I’ve ever seen. Usually the Repubs have one vicious Jeffrey Dahmer-type running and a bunch of more reasonable polished candidates, and typically the polished candidate wins. The exception was 1968 and 1972, with Nixon, and we saw how that turned out.
But the sheer socipathy in the Republican party has forced out all the polished specimens. The Mitt Romneys are now persona non grata. After nominating him in 2012, the party seems to have decided that they don’t want polished reasonable-seeming specimens, they want full-on balls-out hammerdown mad-monkey terrordome crazy. And they’re getting it. This is making the entire population of the United States cringe and flinch in revulsion.
When you get serious conservatives urging fellow Republicans to vote for Hillary in November in a major mainstream newspaper if Trump is the nominee, this is a sign that we are way out where the busses don’t run. We are long past “business as usual” at this point. The Republican party is blowing up.
What takes its place, I don’t know. Where American politics goes from here, after the Republican party fractures and turns into a civil war in a leper colony, I can only guess. But it won’t be business as usual. Humpty Dumpty is not going to be put back together again. Nominating someone like Trump will either drive the billionaires and the Beltway insiders out of the Republican party, or it will force the Republican party to turn into something other than an extended infomercial for zero marginal gains tax and flat tax for billionaires.
This tectonic shift in U.S. politics is so big that observers are already talking about a Trump nomination & the Republican Supreme Court obstructionism pushing the senate back into Democratic control. An epic Trump defeat could well force the House back into Democratic control as the Republican party fractures and goes to war with itself in the next midterm.
One way or the other, things are gonna change drastically in American politics after November. A Democrat winning the White House again will be by far the least of the big news stories.
GregB
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: One percent off of that magic 27%.
Calouste
@WaterGirl: Interesting enough, the ethnic group with the highest household income in the US is Asian (about 20% higher than non-Hispanic whites), but they voted for Obama in 2012 by 73-26.
ruemara
@Mnemosyne: No, because it might be rude.
mclaren
@WaterGirl:
Because they think he’s a reality TV star and don’t realize he’s running for president.
Steve in the ATL
@mclaren:
Don’t tease us, man. We’ve heard that before but these assholes keep coming back from the grave and fucking shit up. I hope you’re right, though….
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@WaterGirl: I have said on numerous occasions that Sanders has the best policy proposals. That it’s important to move overton’s window to the left.
I would vote for Sanders if I felt he was electable and if he didn’t call for Obama’s ouster in 2011. I love Obama and that just soured me on him. The self righteousness stuff is also a turnoff. I don’t like people telling me that they’re better than me, especially when they haven’t passed any legislation in 26 years. Saying he’s better on race than the first Black President is also grating.
But he has made positive contributions.
Timurid
@Gin & Tonic:
Well… Bobby Jindal is dumber than a box full of broken glass, and he was a Rhodes scholar…
Steve in the ATL
@Calouste:
When I vote in primaries in my well off and hardcore Republican suburb of Atlanta, I’m usually one of the first dozen or so on the D primary list while the R list is already on page 10.
Who’s on the D list with me? A couple of aging hippies, the black family, and the rest are Asian.
BBA
@Cacti: So love me, love me, love me, I’m a liberal!
Mike J
I never thought I’d read a Frank Bruni article again, but Neko Case convinced me.
Steve in the ATL
@Frankensteinbeck:
Yeah, you’re right. I should buy your book now!
Mike J
@Steve in the ATL: If you mean his YA supervillian book, you should! Very fun read. I hope to finish the rest of them, but I have a few hundred books on the pile.
mclaren
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
On the contrary — brogressivism is the wave of the future. Look at both political parties.
They are both getting forced strongly to the left by their base.
Trump is against repealing the ACA, he’s against free trade, he’s against more tax cuts for billionaires, he’s for ruthlessly stripping away the tax loopholes from financial fraustars like Jamie Dimon…these are not right-wing positions. These are traditional progressive policies.
Bernie Sanders is for a bunch of progressive policies that are also forcing Hillary to the left. She tried to waffle on the TPP, then finally got forced to come out against it. She tried to waffle on breaking up the TBTF banks and finally got forced to make a mealy-mouthed statements that breaking up the TBTF was something that needed to be on the table. She has found herself forced to tone down all that “American needs a more assertive foreign policy” AKA “we need to burn lots of brown babies” horseshit because of Sanders’ strong stand against endless unwinnable foreign wars. Sanders’ strong position against America’s out-of-control police/prison/military-industrial-surveillance-torture complex has forced Hillary to start coming out against our current sky-high incarceration rate and crazed police who view dark-skinned Americans as live shooting range targets.
All of this is happening because of a massive insurgency in both parties from the left, and from the grassroots.
That’s a huge change. It’s the pendulum swing back from the massive insurgency to the right in both parties in 1980. What happened to movement conservatives like John Cole in 2005 is now happening to the rest of the country ten years later. Cole was just the canary in the cole mine, so to speak. :-)
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@GregB: nice catch.
Mnemosyne
@Mike J:
It got weird because there’s a photo from the Selma march that got posted to Democratic Underground with a guy in the third row who looks quite a bit like Sanders did at the same age. It’s not Sanders and his campaign said so, but a group of Berniebros became convinced that it was Sanders and accused John Lewis of “lying” when he said he never saw Sanders at Selma. Once the photo was debunked, the “lying” accusation became a lot more free-floating and some people claimed that Lewis said that Sanders wasn’t involved with civil rights, not that Sanders wasn’t at Selma.
FWIW, what the Sanders campaign says and all of the evidence shows is that Sanders was working with the SNCC in Chicago while attending the University of Chicago at the time of the Selma march and was nowhere near it. It makes perfect sense that East Coast-based Lewis would have no idea who a student activist in Chicago was. Lewis was kind of busy getting the shit beat out of him in Selma and didn’t keep track of all of the SNCC chapters around the country.
WaterGirl
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: That’s about where I am, too. Bernie lost me this month. Can’t recall whether it was before valentine’s day or after.
Calouste
@mclaren: I agree with you that this Presidential election is really different, I wouldn’t say that it necessarily will result in the implosion of the Republican party, although that is a possibility.
Cacti
Clinton wins all 46 counties in SC.
The Palmetto State flipped Bernie the birdie.
Kropadope
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Translation: I hate and will stereotype those who don’t agree with me.
Ampersand
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Oh, I’m more than happy to use my vote to help people that have problems that I don’t have. But I’m a big-picture political junkie. Unfortunately, I have a hard time convincing my moderate/casual voter friends and acquaintances to do that, because they want to know how a candidate will help them. “Well, they’ll do a lot for these other groups” is absolutely a fair and moral reason to vote, but most people vote out of self-interest…
beltane
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I have been an Obama supporter since 2004. Dreams of My Father is a book that affected me in a very deep and personal way. Neither Sanders nor Hillary can hold a candle to Obama in my opinion, and my enthusiasm level this year has been correspondingly low. That said, I think Bernie was useful in getting young people to think “Gee, maybe we do deserve nice things.” Nothing wrong with that. The first step in getting anything is thinking that you are worthy of getting something.
Kropadope
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Except he didn’t really.
Coming from you, that means nothing.
Steve in the ATL
@Mike J: I just started a Greg Iles book, so that will require a month to read followed by six months of therapy
Cacti
@BBA:
This one here tends to remind me of the BernieBros.
Just change it to a US setting.
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane:
Okay, fine.
Not me. I am extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, and I don’t understand why others are not.
beltane
@Calouste: Even if they somehow implode at the national level, they will still control most of the country at the local level. Other than California and possibly NY, no state is immune to this.
Mnemosyne
@Ampersand:
I’m white, but I have a mixed-race niece and nephew in my family. Where does my “self-interest” lie, with my family members or with unrelated people who happen to have the same skin color that I do?
I think there are quite a few white people in this country who are having to make the same decision.
mclaren
To show you how crazy this election is, just look at this Washington Post headline:
“Club for Growth: Trump’s economic policies put him in liberal mainstream,” The Washington Post, 22 September 2015.
This is not business as usual in American politics. This time, it truly is different.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Me, I’m not enthusiastic about the primary, but I’m champing at the bit to get started on the general election so we can crush that.
pseudonymous in nc
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I don’t get to vote, so anyway, but I think ‘more and better Democrats’ is still a decent slogan to carry along, because Getting Shit Done requires a party that extends to state and county and city, even if you wish there were more and better Democrats in your city and county and state.
Sanders doesn’t really bring anything, and he really doesn’t bring anything to states with Carolina in their name to address the gerrymandering and the ALEC takeover and the fact that the past is not yet past. Sorry, he doesn’t. Magic ‘revolution’ won’t do. It’s all a bit left-Ron-Paul.
beltane
@Omnes Omnibus: Hilary will be a downgrade from Obama. Almost anyone would be a downgrade from Obama. I am voting to keep things from getting worse, not with any expectation they will get better.
Ampersand
@Weaselone:
She has a D after her name, she’s a woman in a position of power, she’s a social liberal, their scandalmongering couldn’t bring down her husband’s administration…so, yes, I think it’s logical that the right has been so worked up about her for so long, despite the areas where they overlap.
Frankensteinbeck
@mclaren:
No, it’s not. The Republicans are facing a massive insurgency from the racist right. Trump flip-flops on his positions all the time. At first he was for increasing taxes on the rich, then for lowering them. He defended Planned Parenthood, then he wanted to get rid of it. His supporters were equally happy with all of those. Trump is proof not that they wanted more liberal policies, but that Republican policies were dog whistles. Given hard racist rhetoric, the base doesn’t care about dog whistles anymore. The closest they are to getting more liberal is that they approve of strengthening the social safety net because Trump has promised them that he’ll kick out everyone else and only white people will get it.
pseudonymous in nc
And if you’re unenthusiastic about your choices this year when one option is to take everything that Obama’s presidency has achieved, light it on fire then piss all over it, then I’m not sure if you take government that seriously.
BBA
Oh, and as a Jew, I honestly don’t care about getting a Jewish president. If anything I’m against it – it’d just highlight the complete lack of progress that every other minority has had in this country.
Unless it’s Al Franken. He’s good enough, he’s smart enough, and doggone it, people like him.
Steve in the ATL
@Mnemosyne: OMG THANK YOU FOR NOT SAYING “CHOMPING AT THE BIT”!
Omnes Omnibus
@pseudonymous in nc: Exactly.
pseudonymous in nc
@Frankensteinbeck:
This. This is what perplexes the National Review types who thought they understood what conservatism was, but now see El Trumpador followed by Teabaggers who are for small government but not for me, thank you. I see this in Appalachia: ‘mountain Democrats’ who are ideologically all over the place. They want universal healthcare and welfare payments but not if it has to be for ni-clangs or mexicans. They’ve waited a long time for somebody who’s not just blowing the dog whistle like Ronaldus Magnus but is yanking a train whistle about how the federal government is going to rain money down on white folks for doing white folks’ work.
Mnemosyne
@Steve in the ATL:
You’re welcome. I still have trouble with “lie” and “lay,” though I don’t think anyone has ever caught me using one of them wrong.
pseudonymous in nc
@beltane:
Those of us who saw the convention speech in 2004 and thought ‘future president’ and then saw it happen somewhat faster than we expected, but it got spoiled somewhat because Yertle is a fucking bastard, well, that’s how things go.
George fucking W Bush was fucking president for eight years. America was running Windows W Bush with Cheney Service Pack for eight years before getting its upgrade. Don’t get greedy when you’ve been a little bit spoilt.
beltane
@pseudonymous in nc: I take government seriously and have never failed to vote in a presidential or midterm election. I am also not able to afford to use my health insurance to go to the doctor to get needed bloodwork done. I have pretty much abandoned any hope of life improving for myself or my family no matter who is president. A Republican would make things much worse, but fear of catastrophe does not equal enthusiasm.
Cacti
@beltane:
We don’t have any elected Dem at this moment in time who holds a matchstick to Obama’s combo of smarts and star power.
I wish we had an Obama-quality candidate to put up for every Presidential election, but they’re rare birds.
Ampersand
@beltane:
I’m sort of in the same situation; I can’t afford health insurance, and I’m not eligible for subsidies. Without some form of universal healthcare, I’m pretty much screwed. Hillary will automatically be better than whoever the GOP puts forward, but, like you, I’m just voting to keep things from getting worse. I don’t have any hope that things will get better.
Omnes Omnibus
This thread seems to need this.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: I was going to say we need a music thread or something.
When I was in high school you could wear a leather jacket and listen to music with horns in and still be a punk.
Steve in the ATL
@Mnemosyne: Short version is that “lie” is what you do to yourself, such as “lie down” while “lay” is what you do to other people (!) or things, such as “lay out your clothes”
Tricky one: “now I lay me down to sleep” is actually correct because the verb is reflexive.
OMG WHAT HAVE YOU PEOPLE TURNED ME INTO?
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Fuck you man, it’s the short version This is what you meant to post.
ETA: I saw Mike Peters live solo back in the ’90s. He did a good show.
Steve in the ATL
@Mike J: Love that song. Reminds of the days when the Clash were considered punk.
mclaren
@beltane:
When a political party implodes, it’s not like a corporation dissolving. A political party isn’t an entity like a company or a bank, it’s an association of ideas and beliefs and loosely affiliated institutions that are re-created every couple of years at election time, like grassroots organizers and donor lists and oppo research experts.
The Republican party is in the process of an existential crisis in which people who call themselves Republicans battle over what they stand for. Depending on the outcome of the battle, a lot of people will probably stop calling themselves Republicans and stop feeding into the loose association of interests and beliefs and semi-fluid institutions that makes up a political party.
Right now, state level Republicans get lots of money from the national organization. When the national organization finds itself in crisis and blows apart and donors and pollsters and grassroots organizers pick up their tents and leave, who will remain to dole out favors and punishments (money and primary challenges) to keep the local party officials in line? More importantly, on what basis will those punishments and rewards get doled out by the national-level Republican party?
If Trump’s relatively progressive economic policies become the Republicans’ national platform, how can the national RNC punish local-level pols from adhering to such policies? And without the kind of Pavlovian primary-threat/money promise from the RNC, how does the national party keep the local pols in line?
What happens when the local pols start deviating from RNC orthodoxy without consequences because the RNC orthodoxy has blown apart and anything goes?
What we’re talking about here is primary challenges from the left and the center against extreme far-right state and local Republican pols. What we’re talking about is a congress in which the national Republican organization can no longer coerce fanatical lockstep voting out of Republican House representatives or Senators because the party is now in existential turmoil over what policies to reward/punish for.
That’s a game-changer.
Now look at the other side of the aisle. The entire Democratic field has coalesced around a set of shared beliefs for the first time in a very long time. The old nostrums of “more training and more education will fix the wealth gap” are no longer adequate. The old “free trade will fix our economy” canards no longer work. Everyone from left-leaning economists like Paul Krugman and Olivier Blanchard and Brad deLong to leftish policy wonks like Ezra Klein to leftist pols like Bernie Sanders are now in agreement — we need a comprehensive set of major changes to American institutions. Higher taxes on the rich, more regulation of the financial sector, active measures to promote U.S. jobs instead of just “let free trade fix it all,” a strong government-led push toward nationalized universal cost-controlled medical, a government-led set of policies to reduce the cost of higher education. These policies are now something pretty much everyone agrees on through the Democratic party, and those who try to demur, like HIllary Clinton, are finding themselves forced ever farther to the left by the general tide of public opinion.
We’re going to see some big changes in the next few years, and positive ones for progressives. More and more I’m starting to think that Dubya’s failed garbage fire of a presidency was the critical infection that activated the immune system of the American body politic against rabid far-right Republicanism.
Jean
@Mr. Twister: Yep. Same for me.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: Can I try a different song?
Unrelated to anything, but fun:
youtube.com/watch?v=0saf-DKQoM8
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Ampersand:
To me, it sounds like brogressives are all standing around with your outstretched white entitled hands, like you’re all owed something while dismissing everyone else’s really hard work. Like what Bernie did to Obama. Miss me with that. Bernie can’t shine PBO’s shoes.
mclaren
@Mnemosyne:
Republicans lie. Democrats get laid.
That explain it all?
Seebach
@raven: celiac slam out of left field
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Sticking vaguely with your genre choice.
ETA: I’ve had mid-afternoon drinks at Tootsie’s.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: Same song. Still in the edit window?
mclaren
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Would that be Bernie Sanders criticising Barack Obama for murdering young girls at their wedding parties “accidentally” with drone strikes, then going back when aid workers try to rescue the mutilated screaming survivors and doing it again?
Is that what you mean by “Bernie can’t shine PBO’s shoes”? I think the reason Bernie can’t shine PBO’s shoes is that Obama’s shoes are covered with too much blood from children and infants and young girls. Really hard to shine shoes with human blood and viscera and bits of brain matter on them.
Source: “Outrage at CIA’s deadly ‘double tap’ drone attacks — Report claims just one in fifty victims of ‘surgical’ US strikes in Pakistan are known militants,” The Independent, 25 September 2012.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Me fix.
shomi
“Don’t underestimate Palin when she runs for prez” Mistermix is lecturing us again on his predictions of a tough race against the human hairpiece. Please continnue
mclaren
@Amir Khalid:
Source: New York Times.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
St Bernard the Never Negative decides to scorch a little earth
On topic, who would the Third Man be?
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
There is this.
Kropadope
@efgoldman:
I have to admit, I really like the aspect of Hillary 3.0 aka Grandma Clinton. Like that tough, non-nonsense grandma, but don’t be afraid cuz she loves you. Very compelling. I don’t even think it’s stagecraft,. I just seriously hope she can get it done. Doin her part to make sure that this autumn doesn’t turn to a cavalcade of Benghazi, e-mails, wolf(!) will help me feel a little more confident in her.
I’m not even saying she has to succeed in that particular regard. I know how eager the MSM is to peddle bullshit.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: From Boston, Mass (the city and the album), The Del Fuegos. I got high with them when they opened for the Femmes at the Blue Note.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: A shift in gears.
LAC
@rikyrah: but remember…WE are a not a part of the electorate in the general election. Women are not part of the electorate and Hispanics are not part of the electorate in the general election. It is just scared old white people, independent white males, and white nascar dads or white security driven soccer moms, blah blah.??? I think I heard this shit during the last presidential election, and somebody with a car elevator got his cllock rung. I keep my eyes on the prize and leave the handwringing for others. Thank you, rikyrah . You keep me sane here, especially after the shit mclaren peddles here.
Ampersand
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Wanting the government to do something in a certain area equals dismissing others’ hard work? What?
I hope we aren’t turning into a “Stop acting all entitled, you should pull yourself up by eating your own bootstraps!” party. The country already has one of those, and that’s more than enough.
The argument behind Hillary seems to be, “Hey, we need to be practical and realistic, so let’s work together, be moderate, and build coalitions.” I may not agree with it, but it’s certainly logical. Except…I’m not seeing that sort of attitude in her supporters. I mean, is calling me a white brogressive moderate or coalition-building? Obviously, you aren’t representative of all Hillary supporters, but I’ve seen that sort of attitude in a lot of places. Are you trying to win allies, or are you just looking to be angry? I’m starting to think that a lot of the “Berniebro” criticism is actually projection…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike J: @Mike J: did you see Juliana Hatfield and her sister at that show?
WarMunchkin
@mclaren:
Dude, whatever drugs you are smoking in this thread at this time of night, I want some of it.
The Republican economic policy platform is still “don’t tax me and give my tax dollars to blacks and browns who don’t deserve them”. Nothing has changed.
Let us dispel this fiction once and for all that Donald Trump is somehow a progressive on economic issues. He’s not.
This is not an imploding party. The fundamentals of electoral politics are no different, only demographics. Their tribe is still guns, god, anti-gays and pro-whites. And regardless of whether or not that voting bloc is owned by NRO crowd or is merely part of their coalition, the R tribe will stand together, as they have for years and years and will for years more.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well played. But it sounds like it might not have been an all ages show.
Another change of gears.
mclaren
@Frankensteinbeck:
That’s only part of it. The Republican is also facing a massive insurgency from working class red staters who don’t want their social security and medicare cut and who want a higher minimum wage.
The Republicans are also facing a massive insurgency from the traditional rich donor class who don’t see the promised results coming from the Karl Rove and Jeb Bush types.
The Republicans are also facing a massive insurgency from red staters over free trade as they watch their jobs getting offshored.
Source: “For Republicans, Mounting Fears of Lasting Split,” The New York Times, 9 January 2016.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
there are people who don’t like Chris Christie? who coulda figured
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: That’s not a push to the left. That’s right wing populism.
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: When Become What You Are came out, she came up and started talking to me in a record store, and I mumbled and blushed and kicked the dirt and had her sign her cd I had in my hand (which is why she said hi, which was really cool). I also told her how much I really liked the show where I saw Blake Babies open for Camper Van B. We have the same birthday.
LAC
@efgoldman: color me surprised too. ?
Frankensteinbeck
@efgoldman:
I can’t tell if you understood LAC or not. That was a snarky description of how minority* votes are discounted, especially in the media and in this thread by a Sanders supporter, as if they were special interests and not everyday people like white males.
*Women are a majority, but treated like a minority.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Shall we deal with the cause of much of Ms Hatfield’s angst?
Omnes Omnibus
Moderation for a Lemonheads song? Jesus wept.
normal liberal
@SFAW:
Scream-leap…
Hey, I got it – not that obscure. Niven isn’t even dead yet.
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
So increasing social security and medicare is “right wing populism.”
We’d expect a paid corporate/military astroturfer to say that. Please continue with your Pentagon-corporate talking points, you’re destroying your credibility far more effectively than I could ever hope to.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: Yawn.
Groucho48
@Steve in the ATL:
Back a few years, when Dem Congressfolk, lead by Pelosi, walked above ground, instead of using a tunnel, from some building to the House, Lewis claimed he was spit on by protesters and Republicans and a fair amount of the MSM basically called him a liar. As I recall, the MSM also blasted Pelosi for the provocative action of having Dems walk outside on a nice day.
As to Maddow. She is great on long form well-researched segments on things that would otherwise stay in the shadows. The water in Flint, for example. She really pushed that for a couple weeks before the story finally broke into the national media. I haven’t seen anyone else on TV who does that kind of thing better. She asks decent questions in interviews but fawns over the guests too much. She has almost a pathological need to ingratiate herself to everyone. On breaking news, she is awful. She panics and assumes the worst and then spreads doom and gloom to a national audience.
Her personal tics have gotten more prominent over time. That nervous laugh. The need to repeat everything 3-4-5 or more times. The faux (maybe it’s real, I suppose) prudishness when talking about anything even the least bit risque. Very annoying. I can’t really watch her show straight, anymore. I have to be doing something else that takes up enough of my attention that I just get the gist of the segment. I will say, Tweety is even harder for me to watch.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: She could have had me and
save herself the angsthad a different set of problems.Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Or me and yet another.
mclaren
@Groucho48:
Rachel Maddow also has essentially no quantitative data-driven grasp of national politics over the long term. She’s given to saying inane common-unwisdom things like “The Democrats and the Republicans tend to trade off every few years, so this year a Republican will probably win.”
That’s just so shallow and so incorrect it’s mind-boggling. How can Maddow do such excellent detailed in-depth reporting on specific issues, yet remain so clueless about long-term election cycles and national trends?
Both Dems and Republicans have had long stretches where one party dominated nationally. Saying that the White House has to shift back to Republican control because the Demos have had for a couple of terms is the gambler’s fallacy. I have to wonder if Maddow even knows what the gambler’s fallacy is.
She’s an important voice for liberal causes and absolutely excellent at putting the spotlight on big issues through her program, but for data-driven national political analysis, better to stick with Nate Silver and the Cook political report.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: Which Cook/e?
Jewish Steel
@mclaren: I thought I’d be much older when this happened. It might be a little soon, but inshallah…
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: Or pretty much any straight male who was awake in the 90s.
I will present a different lemonheads song. Everyone knows and loves Rabbit cause it;s loud and fun and profane, but Mallow Cup always had a place in my heart.
Here I am outside you house at 3am trying to think you out of bed…
I prefer to think of him as just young and stupid and pining for her, not as a stalker.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Evan had issues. Chemical ones.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@beltane:
That’s well put.
The second we get congress back, universal public college is the next big item to pass. it is inevitable.
Frankensteinbeck
@mclaren:
Increasing social security and Medicare FOR WHITES ONLY is right wing populism. That is what Trump is promising them. He’ll get rid of the Browns, and they can have the government gravy all to themselves. When conservatives complain about the safety net, they complain about The Wrong People getting it. It’s like the way they don’t care about the deficit if it’s their guy running it up. Trump hasn’t changed this or revealed a hidden demand.
Omnes Omnibus
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: What do you do about the people who took out shitloads of loans and/or worked three part time jobs to get through college?
Omnes Omnibus
@Frankensteinbeck: Thank you. That was my point.
Groucho48
@mclaren:
Yeah, that’s probably another example of her natural instinct to assume the worst is going to happen. Maybe she’s so good at the long form stuff because it takes her mind off the big, bad, uncontrollable universe where outcomes are always bad. Maybe I’m greatly overthinking this…
As an aside. An interesting factoid. Exit polls found that SC Dem voters found Clinton slightly more honest and trustworthy than Sanders. 51%-49%
BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: Looks like mclaren’s dealer showed up with the good stuff.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve thought about that too. And no one has a good answer. I’m thinking about the people who currently have loans. Some who who have completed their loans may feel resentment, but most will be happy that their kids and grandkids won’t be burdened.
Omnes Omnibus
@BillinGlendaleCA: Nah, the dude’s just a dishonest fuck. My opinion only.
ruemara
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m good. I paid it off 20 years later. I don’t disagree with the free college, I just don’t see how that happens without us owning the nation’s purse, the House.
With regard to the kumbayaya that will happen once Hillary wins, I see a lot of this crap going down. It reads like a teabagger site. luckily, that’s small, but my god. When did being left become this toxic? There is literally no way to reason with such rabid hatred.
Mike J
Hey South Carolina, guess who thinks you’re ignorant hicks?
Omnes Omnibus
@ruemara: It took me to a FB site I needed to login to.
Omnes Omnibus
@Groucho48: Perhaps she does what she is paid to do.
Calouste
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: There’s that question, and there is also the question of how it’s going to be implemented. Public universities are run by the states, not by the federal government. Republican governors will just take the money from the feds and hand it to their cronies. Read what Jindal has done the Louisiana university system, or Brownback to that of Kansas, or Walker to that of Wisconsin.
Tripod
74%/26% – 39/14 pledged delegates.
Res ipsa loquitur
Omnes Omnibus
@Tripod: Context helps.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Mike J: Oooof. The Force is weak with that one.
Ruckus
@Mnemosyne:
I’m old, male and white. I was in a mixed race relationship for 18 yrs. My best friend, of over 40 yrs, was my sisters lesbian lover for most of a decade. She happens to be black. I know of several friends who are in mixed race relationships. It’s personal for me as well.
And it should be personal for many more people than it is. None of us is in this alone. As the population grows that gets to be more and more the case. We will have less food, less water, less room, even if we have enough. The past solution was war. But that has not worked out well in the modern world. The country with the largest military has had it’s ass kicked in war, a moron with a big button could end all life (with the exception of cock roaches) for centuries before the planet would once again be livable. We have to find a better way than what conservatives want.
Brachiator
The notion that there are centrist Republicans who might save the party is a fantasy.
The notion that GOP voters care about centrist Republicans is a fantasy.
The notion that Bloomberg’s money could give him a buy-in into the presidential election is a fantasy.
Many independent voters, and more importantly, previous non-voters, are firmly in the Trump camp.
If Rubio and Cruz can’t win against Trump, but the GOP grandees refuse to crown The Donald, they would have to turn to Romney or Ryan and claim that their past performance gives them legitimacy.
Talk about an effective third party run by anybody is ludicrous.
Calouste
@Brachiator:
Indeed. Trump has a lot of money, but he hasn’t really spend that much on his presidential run so far. He just knows how to get free publicity, which is worth a lot more than buying ads. Trump so far has spend $25 million, where Cruz, Rubio, and Carson have spend more than $60 million, and Jeb?? $125 million.
What the GOP hasn’t realized until literally yesterday, when Rubio started insulting Trump, is that the base doesn’t want to hear dog whistles any more from the candidate, they want it out in the open.
I could see Cruz going third party btw, he still has $39 million cash in hand, where Rubio only has about 11.
Brachiator
@Steve in the ATL:
What about,
Lay, lady, lay. Lay across my big brass bed
Brachiator
@Calouste:
The GOP approved Rubio’s going after Trump. Baby Rubio does not do anything that is off script, or not pre-approved. He also may have convinced someone that the genteel Jeb! approach was an obvious failure.
In theory, Cruz could run as a Tea Party candidate independent of the Republican Party. But not without a lot of Koch Brothers and other big donor money.
But Cruz’ main problem is that his campaign is starting to fracture internally. He has been caught in too many lies and clumsy dirty tricks, and has had to cut people loose who went too far (or who stupidly got caught).
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
With a slightly filthy mind, which of course I have more than a slight case of, I fail to see the incongruity of the given definition and the lyrics.
TheMightyTrowel
@Adam L Silverman: speaking as someone with an oxford dphil, you have no fucking clue what you’re on about. Also fuck you. :-P
Applejinx
@beltane: I’m with Beltane. Prove me wrong.
Or I guess you could be pissed off with me for brogressivism, take my vote and tell me because I’m a medium-old white guy (that demographic exploding in suicide: Ask Me Why!™) I should go die, poor and alone.
You can call my advocacy for Bernie fake hope. You can be startled and surprised at me spending my last few $10 to support the guy. You can work to take away that fake hope from me in the belief it’s bad for me, because that is YOUR privilege as Americans involved with the political process.
Have the courtesy to lie to me that things are gonna be okay. It hasn’t been a revolution for no reason. You’re running against Trump for much the same reasons and if ‘the establishment way’ was such hot shit you’d get to run against Jeb Bush.
I’m watching to see if the continued hectoring of Clinton for being a centrist purveyor of neoliberal policy, continues to have no better response than namecalling. This election is becoming a suicide pact, or seems like it might be. Well, if I gotta die anyway it’s not going to be with the name TRUMP tattooed on my forehead, thank you.
Amir Khalid
@Brachiator:
Many are careless about observing the difference between “lie” the intransitive verb (no object) and “lay” the transitive verb (takes an object). Even Bob Dylan. I suppose English will evolve to the point where the words are completely synonymous, but until it does …
Frankensteinbeck
@Applejinx:
You have been refuted on the issues repeatedly. When people point out Clinton’s policies include universal healthcare, increased capitol gains taxes, and flaunting her experience negotiating peaceful solutions to international disputes, you countered by claiming that’s all a lie and she will ‘triangulate’ to positions more right-wing than a Republican. There is no argument that works against fact-denying conspiracy logic like that. It’s like telling a gun nut that Obama is not coming for their guns.
Applejinx
@Frankensteinbeck: No, I did not. I made no such claim and have made no such comparison (‘more right wing than a Republican’? Very different charge from ‘Trump (not really a Republican) will attempt to run more to the left of her on corporatism and economics’)
No I did not.
Frankensteinbeck
@Applejinx:
Yes you have. Do comments like ‘Will bomb Iran to prove she’s tougher than a Republican’ not ring a bell?
EDIT – Regardless, you were just refuted on the issues. No, she’s not a neoliberal. Enjoy.
Applejinx
@Frankensteinbeck:
Where? It is Haim Saban who wants to bomb Iran, which doesn’t mean that Clinton will do it, just that we know exactly who wants her to do that. And if the argument is ‘she was never a neoliberal’, that’s completely bonkers: the argument you want to be making is ‘she is no longer a neoliberal’, which would truly be welcome news.
We have enough ‘you are refuted, u suk’ from the Republicans. I’m not taking it from Clinton supporters. If I say she has the ardent support of Haim Saban who expects support in return, prove I’m wrong or explain why it doesn’t matter or simply say ‘I don’t think she’s going to bomb Iran’ or freakin’ LIE to me for God’s sake.
Reflexively retorting ‘HATER!’ does not fill me with confidence that you’re gonna usefully direct Clinton in any way. Just as one does not express blind support of Trump, but asks what his intentions are, one does not express blind support of Clinton, one asks what her intentions are and who’s got her ear.
Applejinx
Actually no: say what you want, I promised upthread I would be good, so you can go ahead and put words in my mouth that I never fucking said, and I’ll just leave it unchallenged. I’m sorry for departing from that: it got personal. I really, really don’t like getting spun.
Kay
@Applejinx:
Free college is already happening. Obama has repeatedly called for two years of community college free because it’s the equivalent of a high school diploma 30 years ago as far as wages and entry level jobs. Two years of community college just puts young people on the level playing field as far as capacity to survive as their parents were when they started out. It isn’t “free stuff”. It’s a basic public education.
Ohio has a program in place now where children can start accumulating credit toward a college degree beginning in 7th grade and continuing thru high school. It’s free. They can leave high school with an an associates degree, trades training or a technical certificate. It is wildly popular. The information session I went to at my son’s public school was packed.
This whole discussion has centered around people who graduate high school, pack up and leave for 4 years of college. It has completely ignored the huge group of people who cobble together college or training as part timers or commuters, people who do not have the “traditional college experience” as a frame of reference, because their parents didn’t go to college.
Free public education past high school is not a pipe dream or ridiculous. It’s happening now. It’s not “free stuff”. It’s a necessity.
Sanders plan is more expansive and simpler than what will happen but he’s closer to reality than Clinton, who is talking ONLY about a traditional “4 years away at college” which is NOT what a huge group of lower and middle income people do. Clinton knows all these things. She’s interested in education and well-informed. It’s just politically beneficial now for her to present “free college” as “Donald Trump’s kids getting it free”. That’s fine, it’s a race, all’s fair in political battle, but it has nothing to do with reality, and the reality is younger people will need free public education to extend past 12th grade or they will be starting BEHIND their parents.
Chyron HR
It’s kind of funny how Sanders’ supporters get even more spittle-flecked than usual when they start ranting about evil scheming Jews like DWS and Haim Saban. You guys really haven’t looked into Bernie Sanders any further than “Free college!” “Single payer!” “He puts those uppity blacks in their place!”
Here’s a free clue: His fucking name is BERNIE.
msdc
@ruemara: Their little radio network includes Ed Schultz and prominent anti-vaxxer/Peter Brady sound-alike Robert F. Kennedy Jr., so I’m guessing they’re pretty much hopeless.
The good news is, there’s only a few thousand of them and most of them probably don’t live in swing states.
Politicians ignore “the left” because “the left” never fucking shows up. In this case I think we can safely do the same.
Kay
@Applejinx:
If Clinton follows Obama she will be calling for 2 years of community college free when she’s elected. Hopefully that won’t trigger the whole “free stuff” theme that was used to attack Sanders “free college” proposal in this race. I don’t think it will since the whole discussion was centered around someone’s picture of what “college” means, which is apparently 4 consecutive years at a state university instead of the reality for lower income people, which is “put together some degree or credential over how many years it takes and hope there’s a job that covers the loan”.
Free public education will include prek thru 14 not because young people are greedy entitled takers, but because they need at least that to start at the same place their parents did. This is already happening. It isn’t discussed because the pundits and analysts who discuss these things aren’t the kind of people who go to community college.
I eagerly await the entire Democratic Party promoting two years of free college the moment Clinton is elected- they will, because Obama already has, and states already are. Donald Trumps kids can even go.
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Omnes, the definition of what a “free public education” has to include has expanded. It has expanded as a response to the reality of the economy, which is more competitive than it was when we went to school.
This isn’t fringe. They’re expanding it to prek thru 14 because that’s the equivalent of k-12 25 years ago.
My public school district put in free prek in 2010. It’s free to everyone. When my children were small I paid for prek. I guess that’s “unfair” but I actively backed the free prek here because kids who are now 4 will be in a different world than my kids are and they will need it just to stay even. It’s not a luxury. They will need more education just to survive.
Applejinx
@Chyron HR: As God is my witness, it hadn’t occurred to me that Debbie Schulz was Jewish. You can believe that or not as you like: it continues to make no difference. And of course Bernie is fucking Jewish. So?
(figured out why: I associate ‘Schulz’ with CHARLES Schulz, who was a sort of fundie Christian. That’s why the failure to associate Debbie with Judaism)
Why do the words ‘put uppity blacks in their place’ come so easily to you? They fucking don’t, to me. Find one place I have EVER talked like that, EVER.
Is it that helpful to the Clinton cause to be acting like a Cruz ratfucker trying to piss off Bernie voters?
Guess I lied. I can’t leave some of this shit unchallenged. Can you even listen to yourselves? Jeebus.
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
“Free college for Trump’s kids” is going to come back around and bite Clinton in the same way “no individual mandate” came back around and bit Obama.
Democrats support free college. Now. They don’t support “4 free consecutive years living at a state university”, but “college” is much broader than that.
O. Felix Culpa
@Steve in the ATL: Since you lay that question on the table, I couldn’t take it lying down. Answer: A pedant, like so many of the other good people at BJ. SATSQ.
DCF
@Applejinx:
For all practical purposes, the bulk of the BJ commentariat is a HRC hive.
You’ll be ‘spun’ here – in spite of things like ‘history’ and ‘facts’.
Republican-Lite is not an option.
twitter.com/Honest_Hillary/status/703191161205235712
Amir Khalid
@O. Felix Culpa:
Ahem.
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus: My favorite cover song of all time!
Another Holocene Human
@Steve in the ATL:
(emph mine)
Boom! And then Sanders topped it off by refusing to promise to campaign for down-ticket Democrats. Fuck you, Senator Sanders! Christ! (Elijah!)
Steve in the ATL
@Brachiator:
Artistic license, I suppose, though it bugs me! As does “Lay Down, Sally”
Another Holocene Human
@dww44: Some fucking Berniacs on twitter did. OTOH they could have been paid GOP operatives.
LAC
@Frankensteinbeck: thank you! Even my snark meter was overlooked. ?
Another Holocene Human
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Before Bush you could dump student loans in a bankruptcy. Of course, some prominent people lied to BK judge about job offers and stuff. Like Stephen Lynch, the conservaDem who has never paid a price for it. (He was lucky to run against a pol who was even more corrupt.)
The point is that everyone who came after me–Gen Y–can’t discharge their student loans even if they fall on the hardest of hard times. That isn’t right.
We could put back stuff the way it was before but we’d need more than an old man shouting on street corners. It would mean actually taking on Wall St, not masturbating to the idea.
Another Holocene Human
@Applejinx: I don’t believe you. Bullshit.
agorabum
@dww44: sadly, there were quite a few bernie bros attacking Lewis after he endorsed Hillary. I told them they were crazy.
Applejinx
@Another Holocene Human: I didn’t expect that post to get quite that kind of blowback, much as I didn’t expect to hear about Twitter’s CEO hosting a Hillary fundraiser.
FUUUUUCK, on both counts. I thought buying the Onion was startling. Twitter? Thank fuck this back-channel panopticon power and manipulativeness would only be used for virtue and good :P on the other hand, I’m sure we’re all pleased he didn’t back Trump.
More relevantly, is it okay if I remind you that (a) I have and show autism, (b) hate network television and never watch it and wouldn’t have seen any mention of Debbie’s religious preferences there, (c) hate POLITICS and didn’t want to hear a thing about who’s running the DNC until things got stupid and still avoid places like Kos etc (which is what DCF’s helpfully linked to, trigger warning), and (d) drew and posted over 440 installments of a hand-drawn webcomic back around 2007-2009 or so? I was at the second Webcomics Weekend convention, just after I stopped updating the comic, and still have the black canvas bag they included as a tchochke, and the imprinted Sharpie, too. I do associate ‘Schulz’ with the creator of Peanuts, any cartoonist would, and everybody knows Sparky was a devout Christian, famously.
I’ve seen pictures and video of Debbie. She has very curly hair. Are you telling me she’s so outrageous a stereotype that I couldn’t possibly not respond to it? I associate Debbie with ‘WOMAN determined at all costs to elect another powerful and capable woman president’. I’m sorry if this seems weird, but it’s the truth. And I have no big problem with that, it’s just consistently freaking me out the lengths to which establishment Dems will go to, for the win.
That’s enough to bother me. As a techie, it’s beyond trivial to periodically ‘zero out’ hashtags like #WhichHillary when you own the machines and there is absolutely no law saying you can’t or shouldn’t. That’s the whole problem with putting all power in unanswerable technocrat hands: they go all Facebook and start experimenting on you.
Please keep the further anti-Semitic insinuations to yourself. My Aunt Marsha, and hence by marriage my Uncle Walter and their family, are Jewish.
And I like the ‘actually taking on Wall St’ part and agree with Hillary that it would be for their own good.
eldorado
getting a run together as an independent would take some serious organization at this point. to qualify for the ballot in texas, you need to have ~80k signatures by the may 9th and the window to start gathering those starts march 1st.
Miss Bianca
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
y’know, I’m not so certain as some people seem to be that CO is going to go for Bernie Sanders. I know I’m just one CO Dem, so I could be wrong.
On the bright side of life, I figured myself to be one of only about a dozen registered Democrats in my county. Thanks to the local paper, I discover that there are actually over 500 of us! As opposed to over 2400 registered Republicans, 24 Libertarians, and (I think) two Greens. Looking forward to caucusing Tuesday and meeting up with my peeps!
Brachiator
@Amir Khalid: lay, lady, lay sounds better than lie, lady, lie. I don’t think it’s a matter of carelessness.
In any case, grammar and song lyrics, more fun than some of the political discussion.
J R in WV
@Omnes Omnibus: If you turn those loans into no-interest loans, the payments go way down and payoff happens much sooner. Why should anyone make a profit on student loans?
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus:
Moi, aussi. And given the amount of passionate bloviating I’ve seen upon this very subject on this very blog, I find the avowed lack of enthusiasm doubly baffling.
Austin Loomis
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I’ve obviously been neglecting the Peter Yates oeuvre. The only film of his I’ve seen is Krull, the underrated science-fantasy classic that prompted my older brother to swear in front of our parents for the first time, when we left the cinema after the showing and he asked my dad “What the hell happened to the goddam Glaive?”
Ramalama
Has anyone seen John Oliver’s brilliant take down of the Donald? 21 minute video, but worth it.His anger was apparent and brilliant.
Oliver had an addon made for web browsers to transform the Donald’s current name to his family’s real name – Drumpf. I tried it out here first, and boy does it work.