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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / One done, four to go

One done, four to go

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Let the triaging begin!

Via The Hill:

Two prominent groups that back Republican candidates are scrapping millions of dollars in advertisements aimed at bolstering vulnerable Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) in the fall, as polls show him trailing former Sen. Russ Feingold (D).

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has pushed back reservations for pro-Johnson advertisements. Once set to begin in early August, the ads are now scheduled to run in October.

There are two take-aways. The first is that Johnson is cooked and the national Republican mobile money is moving to races that they have a chance in. Secondly, the amount of money is not huge and the triaging is early, so is it an indicator that the national Republican mobile money is more constrained than normal? Are the early spring brags that the big money donors would shift everything down ticket instead of top of the ticket full of hot air?

So Wisconsin is a highly likely Democratic pick-up instead of just a likely Democratic pick-up and we get Senator Feingold back. That means three more seats for a tie with a VP nudge or four more seats for a clear majority.

As a side note, given that Wisconsin is a third tier swing state, there is no Republican presidential ground game in Wisconsin, and now there is a written off Senate race. The highest profile contested races for Republicans which may have ground level organization are the House seats. Can Dems run up the score?

Reader Interactions

25Comments

  1. 1.

    Greg

    It will be a pleasure to see Russ Feingold return at the expense of the dim bulbed Johnson.

  4. 4.

    low-tech cyclist

    Sweet!

    Yeah, looks like we might be able to add Wisconsin to California on the list of states where Republicans have no big race (President, Senate, Governor) they can make a difference in. So both look like opportunities for an energized ground game to pick up some House seats.

  6. 6.

    O. Felix Culpa

    O frabjous day! (At first glance, I thought you wrote “Johnson is crooked.” That may or may not be true, but I’m happy to take him as “cooked.”)

  8. 8.

    catclub

    I saw that Evan Bayh is suddenly leading against whoever replaced Mike Pence for governor in Indiana. By a lot.

    Will that have any influence upticket?

  9. 9.

    bulletin 1147

    I think it’s no coincidence that Wisconsin’s voter ID law was blocked by a federal judge on Tuesday.

  10. 10.

    Capri

    @catclub: Bayh is running for senator, not governor. He is leading by a lot according to the poll I’ve seen. He “convinced” the nominated democratic candidate, Baron Hill, to drop out. Probably offered Hill piles of the cash he’s been sitting on since leaving the senate the first time.

    Bayh has always been on Team Hillary and is a weasel and opportunist above all – he must really think that Hillary is going to win and that the senate is going to flip. Otherwise he would have remained on the sidelines.

    Pence’s replacement has yet to be named – the party is currently evaluating 3 potential candidates. At least one and maybe two are on the ballot for the US house races so the dominos haven’t stopped falling.

  11. 11.

    James E Powell

    @trollhattan:

    Can somebody please explain “Governor Scott Walker” to me?

    People in the Great State of Wisconsin have told me that it is all or some of the following: Midterm election, economic hard times, black man in the White House, aversion to recalls, bad/weak opponent, midterm election.

  13. 13.

    trollhattan

    @James E Powell:
    I’ll cop to our state electing an action star (twice!) because we were bored with a governor literally named Gray, but in sum Arnie didn’t cause a sliver of the direct harm Walker has wrecked upon the state and citizens of Wisconsin. It’s mind-boggling to comprehend from afar (which should then bring up Kansas, but never mind about that).

  14. 14.

    Cermet

    The Senate news just gets better; the inferior court just might get back to being the Supreme Court once again … .

  15. 15.

    Miss Bianca

    pro-Johnson advertisements? Who isn’t pro-Johnson? Who needs to be convinced – oh, *that* Johnson. Nah – screw him. Or unscrew him.

  16. 16.

    burnspbesq

    @bulletin 1147:

    I think it’s no coincidence that Wisconsin’s voter ID law was blocked by a federal judge on Tuesday.

    In theory, the Seventh Circuit could stay the district court ruling pending appeal, but that doesn’t seem likely. Hoping Posner ends up on the panel and delivers one of the epic smackdowns he is known for.

  17. 17.

    Tom Levenson

    Duckworth looks good. I gotta hope for Hassan in NH (that’s the race I’ll hit the bricks for come the fall). My deepest desires see ends to Rubio and — especially — McCain’s careers. A boy can dream.

  18. 18.

    burnspbesq

    @trollhattan:

    With the benefit of hindsight, the Davis recall and Ah-nuld’s election look like a wake-up call that turned around the Democratic Party, to the point where we now hold all the levers of power worth holding. But at the time, it sure looked like a shit sandwich with a side order of Drano.

  19. 19.

    eldorado

    longshot but i am hoping every district one dem voter gets to the polls. apparently there is a ‘trump conservative’ third party guy in the race. that might be enough to take out ryan.

  20. 20.

    MomSense

    I want a wave election. Get rid of all these Republican mofos!

    They deserve a humiliating defeat.

  22. 22.

    CONGRATULATIONS!

    But at the time, it sure looked like a shit sandwich with a side order of Drano.

    @burnspbesq: If anything, that’s an understatement. I have always been proud to the point of hubris about being a native Californian. Still am. But the one time that pride took a dump – where I was so ashamed I’d rather have admitted I was from Texas – was when we put the Gropenator in office. Humiliating doesn’t begin to describe it.

    The only consolation of that horrible time was watching Darryl Issa weep on national TV, right after the state GOP told him he was not going to be a candidate for that office as someone had finally got the goods on his young adult felonies, and would use them if he ran.

  25. 25.

    MCA1

    @Tom Levenson: Well, get your hopes up – new WMUR poll today shows Hassan up 3. It’s very much in play right now.

    Duckworth will look even better in the wake of Kirk’s ill-conceived comments downplaying Melania’s plagiarism ’cause she’s a hottie or somesuch.

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