Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Joe Biden can go out like FDR, not by dying in office, but by crushing the fascists.

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / Open Thread: Donald HEARS Stuff…

Open Thread: Donald HEARS Stuff…

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Buzzfeed, today:

Donald Trump on Tuesday defend his claim that the election will be rigged, offering no actual evidence but saying he hears and feels things.

“Well, I’m talking about at the voter booth,” Trump told CBS12 in Florida. “I mean, we’ve seen a lot of things over the years. And now without the IDs, you know the voter IDs, and all the things that are going on. And some bad court cases have come down.”

Asked if he had any reason to believe something illegal was going on, Trump offered the answer, “I just hear things, and I just feel it.”…

But we can’t afford to ignore his bullshit, or his paid ratfvckers, because Trump is the logical endpoint of the GOP’s vote-suppression strategy over the last half-century.

Reader Interactions

406Comments

  2. 2.

    Keith G

    Yea! We finally get a Donald Trump thread.

    ed: But to the point…Yes Mr Trump the election has been rigged!!!

    The Democratic Party has used it’s super-duper telekinetic mind melding power to get the GOP to nominate their weakest candidate in 80 years.

    That is a hell of a rig job.

  6. 6.

    Dexter

    Stuff you hear….

    John HarwoodVerified account
    ‏@JohnJHarwood
    longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager: “Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.”

  7. 7.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    Trumpy the demagogue is sowng seeds for some really awful stuff if Hillary wins. A55hole.

  8. 8.

    dmsilev

    @Dexter: Staff suicidal, huh? Wonder what morale will be like after Donald spends the next two weeks trying to grab headlines away from the Rio clusterfuck Olympics.

  9. 9.

    Smiling Mortician

    On the plus side, thanks to Roger Stone, I now have an example to use in tomorrow morning’s class session on failures of argumentation.

  10. 10.

    PsiFighter37

    @Dexter: I won’t believe it until we see Lewandowski have a full-blown meltdown on CNN.

    That said, the past few days have been absolutely atrocious for Trump – this may be one he cannot recover from. I will be very interested to see what the next set of national polls look like – and I would like to see what the Senate races in key states look like too. Anyone in a somewhat competitive race needs to throw the Trump albatross around their opponent’s neck and drag them down.

    Goodwin Liu has to be feeling a tad giddy and has probably prepped everything he needs for a SCOTUS nomination…

  16. 16.

    hovercraft

    Chris Hayes throws Kanye West in as our analog to Trump.
    Meglomaniac – check
    Sam Seder rejects the premise because we are not crazy and would not nominate crazy. The base would not do it.
    Josh Barro throws Alan Grayson in, Hayes and Seder push back and point out that when allegations of abuse came out, liberal groups unendorsed.
    The two parties are not equivalent.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: Disgruntled Woman Syndrome? Is that a variant of DPWS (disgruntled postal worker syndrome)?

  18. 18.

    Aleta

    Lose at cards, accuse others of cheating, throw over the table, provoke a fight, shoot off your gun, escape with gambling debt unpaid.

  20. 20.

    ThresherK

    Jay Rosen is da bomb. He’s been very good at this for a long time.

    How do I know he’s good? He’s never been invited on an NPR show that I know of. He was on a CT Public Radio show, one of their best.

  21. 21.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    If Hilz wins,Trumps concession speech will have higher ratings than the winning speech of the first woman president of the U.S and Orange Hitler will tweet about it.

  22. 22.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Aleta:

    Lose at cards, accuse others of cheating, throw over the table, provoke a fight, shoot off your gun,

    Wait I know that song, the next line is “There must be fifty ways to lose the White House”, right?

  23. 23.

    Peale

    @hovercraft: Current New York congressman and soon to be mayor Anthony Weiner would like to confirm that Democratic voters reward outrageous behavior on the Twitter.

  25. 25.

    redshirt

    I’m simultaneously terrified and totally excited for this election.
    Terrified for the obvious reasons – what if…..

    But super excited for this chance to deliver a killing blow to the Republican Party. The way this is lining up, they may not recover from this nationally. If we can take the Senate we get our packed SC for a generation.

    Promising signs, IF we can defeat Trump.

    Even election related violence inspired by Trump would ultimately be a good, as it will peel more decent Republicans from the grips of these jackals.

  30. 30.

    Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)

    These fucking shitbags send me over the edge with this voter fraud shit.

    If there’s any voter fraud, it would be the easiest fucking thing in the world to prove. All they have to do is go to any county they think it happened in, which gives them 3000-odd counties to choose from. They go look at the list of voters who voted in the last election and check it against the death rolls. If hordes of people have been voting in dead voters’ names, it’ll show up pretty fast. But none of these patriotic heroes give enough of a shit about their country to bother to do the work. Or they’re too fucking lazy. Or they know it’s all a load of horseshit. Whichever it is, they have no fucking excuse to bleat about this shit unless they can show it happened. This is fucking poisonous, since it eats away at the foundation of any democracy, which is faith in the democratic process. These fuckers belong in the lowest depths of hell.

  32. 32.

    hovercraft

    @Dexter:
    Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of reptiles. You allow a scorpion on your back and then are shocked when he stings you, it’s his nature. All of them are scum who sold their souls for a chance to get power, now it’s time to pay up.
    Mixed metaphors/ parable.

  35. 35.

    Baud

    @slag: Haha. I was thinking, whenever we start talking about Hillary’s unpopularity, we need to add “with white people.” It may cost us the election, but it’s not because of her.

  36. 36.

    Peale

    @redshirt: yeah. The problem with civil unrest I suppose is that you never really can be sure that it will take the direction that you want. However, were Roger Stone to find himself on the front lines of the insurgency, I wouldn’t object to feeding his remains to vultures.

  37. 37.

    schrodinger's cat

    My both sides-do-it friend

    Both sides of the Khan story have a point

    .

    Me:

    What are the two sides to the Khan story
    1. Mr. Khan is Hillary’s puppet and his son was a double agent for Al-Qaeda
    OR
    2. His own eloquent testimony and interviews since the convention.

    What could possibly be the the mid pt of these two pts of view.?

    No reply yet.

  43. 43.

    hilts

    Kurt Eichenwald on Trump’s incompetence as a businessman

    Lost contracts, bankruptcies, defaults, deceptions and indifference to investors—Trump’s business career is a long, long list of such troubles, according to regulatory, corporate and court records, as well as sworn testimony and government investigative reports. Call it the art of the bad deal, one created by the arrogance and recklessness of a businessman whose main talent is self-promotion.

    h/t http://www.newsweek.com/2016/08/12/donald-trumps-business-failures-election-2016-486091.html

  44. 44.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Rachel Maddow showing the Kirkpatrick ad that I’ve been hoping she’s been running in AZ. Brutal.

  45. 45.

    PsiFighter37

    @Roger Moore: It’ll either be Liu or Srinivasan. I think getting more folks who weren’t appellate judges would be a good thing, and it’s quite clear the Liu is on our side (Srinivasan is a bit more of a blank slate).

    To be honest, I would be fine with either – both seem to be exemplary, and it’s high time that Asians got their due on the high court. I do feel bad for Garland, but he knew this was quite likely to happen…

  46. 46.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Baud: At the rate we’ve gone in the past five days, it will be over by Labor Day, and then what will the MSM do?

  49. 49.

    Baud

    @Villago Delenda Est: In 1996, it was a foregone conclusion that Bill was going to win reelection. Can’t recall how the media handled it.

    I don’t think this will be that close. Too many dead enders locked in.

  52. 52.

    redshirt

    @Baud: Agreed, but that was midterms. This is Presidential. And the killing blow will come from not necessarily the scale of the defeat this election, but from the loss of future voters, both current and potential. That said, I’m sure there would be some regression in 2018.
    But then 2020 comes, literally, the most important election of the last ten years (as you say, 2010, which hurt us bad).

  53. 53.

    dmsilev

    @schrodinger’s cat: Perhaps Mr. Khan is an extremely eloquent puppet?

    In all seriousness, I’m impressed that anyone could manage to both-sides-do-it on this particular issue. That’s really clinging to a mental model of the world with no intention whatsoever of changing ones mind.

  54. 54.

    Dexter

    Regarding John Harwood’s tweet about Trump campaig staff suicidal, there seems to be a corroboration.

    Ali VitaliVerified account
    ‏@alivitali Ali Vitali Retweeted John Harwood
    A Trump campaign source, in reax to this, tells me “it’s all true” and “way worse than people realize.”

  55. 55.

    cokane

    What sucks is that I think this election is going to be unbelievably close. Trumpism is the near term future for opposing dems/liberalism. seriously the dumbest presidential campaign i have ever seen

  56. 56.

    BR

    Actually, we need to make sure Gary Johnson doesn’t get to 15% — then he’d get into the debates, and that’d help him get up to 20-25% in Nov. He could steal enough Bernie voters and Trump voters to make Clinton’s win a close call.

  60. 60.

    redshirt

    @Peale: I don’t wish for violence, but if these evil men are going to start bringing up the prospect on 8/1, let’s game plan it. The violence would accomplish nothing except the further loss of the “both sides do it” mantra. We need to turn the media from this viewpoint. We need to turn the majority of voters against this viewpoint. There is no “both sides”. There’s the fucked up Republican Party actively doing everything they can to literally undermine our country. That needs to be clear. It’s clear to us, right? We need a lot more people and institutions on board.

    Election related violence from Trump supporters on behalf of an actual call for violence by the Trump campaign might be the trick to open a lot more eyes to the reality we’ve known for over 30 years now: The Republican Party is actively treasonous and a real danger to the country and the world.

  62. 62.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    This problem’s clear to me so you don’t need to shout
    You got in to this thing, and now you just want out
    I’d like to help you in your struggle to be free
    There must be fifty ways to lose the White House

    Just slander a judge, Judge
    Go after McCain, Blaine
    Make fun of disabled, Mabel
    And get yourself free…

  63. 63.

    Aleta

    Laugh about it shout about it when you’ve got to choose, any way you look at it you lose.

  64. 64.

    Quinerly

    @Baud:
    I don’t think he’s even popular in NM. Kinda get the feeling he’s a bit of a joke in his home state.

  65. 65.

    craigie

    @Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
    Oh I believe there is fraud all right. It’s just that it comes from the Right. How many millionaires with multiple homes do you think vote absentee from all their various homes. McCain and his 6 or “I don’t know how many” homes – I bet he votes from all of them. I bet they all do it. The only verified fraud we’ve seen so far was Ann Coulter, right?

    Remember, it’s always projection.

  68. 68.

    Peale

    @Baud: honestly I don’t want that to happen. Unless the dems retake the House, losing Ryan, vile scoundrel that he is, would pretty much guarantee that what is left of the house at this point will go off the rails.

  70. 70.

    dmsilev

    @Mike in NC: Lord, I had forgotten that fiasco. Of course, Mittens did legitimately have some Olympics-related expertise:

    1) Convince various governmental agencies to give you large amounts of money (road upgrades, stuff like that)
    2) Boast about how efficient the private sector was at bringing off the Games

    Edit: Donald, if present at Rio, would probably try to emulate George “slap the volleyball player’s ass” Bush.

  71. 71.

    sigaba

    @Dexter:

    longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager: “Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.”

    Makes my day.

  75. 75.

    rikyrah

    TBogg ‏@tbogg 5h5 hours ago

    All Hillary ads from now on
    – Black screen with “The fuck?”
    – Trump clip
    – Black screen “Hillary 2016 – because, seriously, what the fuck?”

  76. 76.

    scottinnj

    We need to gets lots of BJ-ers to sign up for the drive to vote thing. It isnt enough to defeat Drumpf, he needs to be humiliated. Wife and I were talking we need to travel to,say Paul Ryan’s district to drive some voters to the polls.

  77. 77.

    Prescott Cactus

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    “There must be fifty ways to lose the White House”, right?

    You dump on the Gold Star Mom, Dom.
    Get a few heel spurs, Merl.
    Get 5 draft deferrals, Pearl.
    Make a captured vet, sweat
    And hope nothing sticks, Nick

  78. 78.

    slag

    @Baud:

    @slag: Haha. I was thinking, whenever we start talking about Hillary’s unpopularity, we need to add “with white people.” It may cost us the election, but it’s not because of her.

    I don’t know. Maybe we need to sacrifice more women and minority rights to the altar of the white male voting bloc. It’s worked out so well for us in the past. And then Hillary can run around the country having beers with all the ‘actual’ voters, and victory will be ours!

  81. 81.

    Jeffro

    All I can say is Trump better knock it off soon, I absolutely HAVE to get some work done tomorrow.

    And I am just SICK of popcorn at this point.

    Ok, no…no I’m not, actually…

  82. 82.

    Brachiator

    @Peale:

    However, were Roger Stone to find himself on the front lines of the insurgency, I wouldn’t object to feeding his remains to vultures.

    I have this fantasy where Stone and Trump actively advocate insurrection, and end up becoming the last internees at Gitmo.

  85. 85.

    slag

    @Dexter:

    longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager: “Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.”

    If only.

  86. 86.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @redshirt: This is a serious problem. The Drumpenproles are being prepped for rejecting the election results as “rigged” when Teh Donald loses, and being violence prone to begin with (shouting down the mother of an airman because she mentions the Khans?), yelling “HATE WILL WIN!” at his rallies, and in general being barbarians at all times, they will totally lose their shit in ways we cannot predict.

  87. 87.

    jl

    @BR: @Baud:

    Johnson would just confuse things, and I am not sure how sincere some of his recent statements have been. He has been suggesting he would open to revenue neutral carbon tax, minimum basic income, and some other policies that might attract the Busters and weak minded liberals with libertarian sympathies. The very idea that he would consider those kinds of policies makes glibertarian heads explode, but so what?

    So, I don;t want him to get enough support to get into the debates. If I knew his record well enough to have confidence these non-standard libertarian noises he has been making are sincere I might. But I don’t trust him that much, wonder if he is being opportunistic and cynical in an attempt to attract some gullible non-libertarian votes. So I’d prefer he just stay irrelevant with a small following.

  89. 89.

    redshirt

    @Jeffro: Right? As political junkies, it’s hard to look away. This is a political car accident without rival in American history, and maybe all of history. And we only have 98 more days to “enjoy” it.

  92. 92.

    ThresherK

    @Peale: Wait, she conceded in 2012?

    Charles I of Austria, the last ruling Habsburg, “renounced participation in state affairs” but did not actually abdicate after being beaten in WWI. He spent his after-war years concocting so many “take back my throne” plans that the Austrian govt banned him from reentering (in 1919), and the Hungarian Parliament formally dethroned him (In 1921, three years after the war ended).

    He sounds like a piker next to Jill Stein.

  93. 93.

    sdhays

    @Baud: Not to mention that Johnson’s campaign is a joke (although a much less offensive one than Lord “Dainty Digits'” campaign). I remember when he was nominated and had a fairly long interview, I think on the Snooze Hour, and after 10 minutes, his platform came down to “we can cut taxes by trillions of dollars and still do everything that everyone wants!” How? “It’s easy!” Yes, but how? “In conjunction with Congress!” ….? “I swear we’re not loons!”

    He’s looking at the biggest shot and exposure the Libertarian Party has ever had in the history of the Libertarian Party (they quite literally have the opportunity to replace the Republican Party as the center-right party – not a good opportunity, but still a real opportunity), and he couldn’t articulate his own platform. Even if it’s a lie or just stupid (which of course it is), he should have been prepared with a pitch to take in disaffected Republicans and some Democrats, and he totally blew it. It was ridiculous.

    Based on that alone, I have no worries about him being in the debates. He’s no threat to Hillary, and just being on the stage may give some Republicans who will never vote for Hitlery the idea that they can have their cake and eat it too by simply flushing their vote down the Libertarian toilet.

  98. 98.

    Princess (now General) Leia

    No way he is still around on election day. Chicken Little me is worried that he will leave in a huff, and since anyone is more palatable than DT, and since the CWt is that it really is only OK to vote for HRC since she isn’t DT, the R’s will win by bringing in almost anyone. Not sure that it an be Cruz, but I am not sure. I think this is peaking too early – better if this was late October.

  99. 99.

    Mnemosyne

    @PsiFighter37:

    I want both Liu and Garland. I’m really pissed at the far left for painting the very liberal Garland as some kind of right-wing mole because they didn’t like a Guantanamo decision.

  100. 100.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Denali:
    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Altogether now:

    The problem’s clear to me so you don’t need to shout
    You got in to this thing, and now you just want out
    I’d like to help you in your struggle to be free
    There must be fifty ways to lose the White House

    Just slander a judge, Judge
    Go after McCain, Blaine
    Make fun of disabled, Abel
    Just listen to me

    Go on, smear a few heroes, Nero
    Get your polls down to near to zero!
    Just break all the rules, fool
    And set. yourself. free

  102. 102.

    redshirt

    @Villago Delenda Est: It’s serious all right. But so’s the fact that the Civil War never really ended, and we’re still fighting it this very day. We need to end that war, and clearly that’s not going to happen via politics, reason, discussion, or common sense. So, how then? Violence can solve some problems. Electoral related violence that is clearly ginned up by a losing campaign might be a large weight added to the scales that fall from many people’s eyes and they finally see what’s become of the Republican party.

  105. 105.

    Anne Laurie

    @Mike in NC:

    Maybe Drumpf will turn up in Rio and it will go as well as it did for Mittens in London in 2012.

    Unfortunately, Trump’s a germaphobe. He wouldn’t risk getting his precious tanner-soaked hide anywhere near a place where all his “shows” tell him Zika is in a race with MRSA for the destruction of the human race.

  106. 106.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Half of February and March on my FB feed were Bernfeelers ranting about the superdelegates being soooooo undemocratic and unfair for poor poor Bernie, only to hear **crickets** at the end when his last play was to try to flip them to him, overriding 4 million votes including overwhelming numbers of votes from PoC, because the voting process was so unfair to poor poor Bernie because… reasons. So glad to be rid of all of that fucking nonsense.

  108. 108.

    Helen

    Has anyone checked to see if Trump actually votes? I don’t remember seeing this one way or the other. He said today that some people will vote 10 times. Has he ever been in a NYC polling place? How would that work?

  109. 109.

    Ken

    @Brachiator:

    I have this fantasy where Stone and Trump actively advocate insurrection, and end up becoming the last internees at Gitmo.

    Oh, I’m sure after a few hours minutes of enhanced interrogation, they’ll name their co-conspirators.

  110. 110.

    Mnemosyne

    @smintheus:

    I wonder if the Daily Beast still feels good about their attempts to kneecap Hillary Clinton, or if they’ll just pretend it never happened.

    (Check Snopes.com for the debunking of a Daily Beast article that claimed that Hillary laughed at a rape victim’s story.)

  113. 113.

    p.a.

    @Villago Delenda Est: Don’t underestimate the damage 30 years of hate radio and Fux news has done. I think Hillary wins, but the Senate changeover right now is about 50% I believe. House < 20%. Might not move much more in our direction.

  115. 115.

    Lizzy L

    Trump is starting the “rigged election” meme now because he’s behind in the polls. If he stays behind in the polls, it will become a theme; he will hammer on it. (Does he even understand that the national election is organized and held state by state? It probably doesn’t matter.) It’s going to be interesting to see what the Republicans do with it — support, reject, ignore — especially in those states which have Republican governors, or Republican Senators up for re-election. (Arizona…) They will be trapped.

  116. 116.

    hovercraft

    @Peale:
    Either way they will be rabid raccoon’s, either they will have someone just as insane as them in the White House, or the devils handmaiden will have stolen the election and therefore she must be stopped at all costs. There will be no debt ceiling raises, no budgets no appropriations without offsets. Sequestration will be childsplay. Government shutdowns will be passe.

  122. 122.

    gogol's wife

    @Jeffro:

    I was talking to a friend in another country today (the country shall remain nameless). She said, “Are you going to be this nervous until NOVEMBER? You have to calm down and stop thinking about Trump for a while.”

    Not going to be easy.

  125. 125.

    Anne Laurie

    @Kathleen:

    I heard Trump’s head ferret was negotiating with Rand Paul. It’s fleeing a sinking scalp.

    Okay, I lol’d.

    Now I just have to figure out a riff on Gary Johnson getting kidnapped by Trump’s head ferret and Rand’s pate-poodle… if it happens, remind me I owe you the credit…

  126. 126.

    Mnemosyne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    OT, but I don’t know if you and the other “sovcit” followers heard about this shooting of a black woman in Maryland who appears to have been a big believer (and was batshit crazy, to boot). I didn’t think the sovcit thing would have much traction among African-Americans, but between this woman, the police shooter in Baton Rouge, and the police shooter in Dallas, this is starting to look like kind of a trend.

  127. 127.

    Brachiator

    @Baud:

    . In 1996, it was a foregone conclusion that Bill was going to win reelection. Can’t recall how the media handled it.

    Could not quickly find info about the media, but some related tidbits.

    Some quick facts about the 1992 presidential election

    Turnout was registered at 49.0%, the lowest for a presidential election since 1924…

    Throughout this campaign, Clinton was always leading in the polls, generally by large margins….

    President Clinton’s chances of winning were initially considered slim in the middle of his term as his party had lost both the House and the Senate in 1994 for the first time in decades; he had reneged on promises to cut taxes and to reduce the deficit, enacted a Federal assault weapons ban, and had a failed healthcare reform initiative. He was able to regain ground as the economy began to recover from the early 1990s recession with a relatively stable world stage. He went on to win re-election with a substantial margin in the popular vote and electoral college. Despite Dole’s defeat, the Republican Party was able to maintain a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate

    The 2016 campaign is already crazy. I don’t think anyone predicted these early Trump meltdowns. The GOP still has 100 days to try to get their act together. Unlikely perhaps, but still.

  129. 129.

    Mnemosyne

    @Boudica:

    I saw a documentary that his (mixed race) stepdaughter made about a decade ago. He came across as a really nice guy and she seemed to consider him her father since her own father was out of her life by the time she was a toddler.

  130. 130.

    hovercraft

    Tim Huelskamp of Kansas is in the process of losing his primary. He is one of the Freedom caucus loons who drove Boehner out, he’s being primaried by an establishment repub backed by the Kochs, he’s currently down 16.

  134. 134.

    Brachiator

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    The Drumpenproles are being prepped for rejecting the election results as “rigged” when Teh Donald loses

    Best case scenario is for Clinton to cross the 270 electoral vote threshold early, and then load on many more states. The lunatic fringe may not be convinced, but this might minimize extreme crazy talk.

  136. 136.

    Tim C.

    There isn’t going to be any wide spread violence when Trump loses. Thee could be some small incidents or lone wolf attacks, but if there is one thing we’ve learned over and over again about Trump voters and their ilk, it’s that they are cowards. They love to LARP about being freedom fighters, but when the crap hits the fan, they just won’t risk life and limb. Examples 1 through 12 can be found in the Multnomah county jail making ropes out of bedsheets and declaring themselves to be sovereign idiots. Trump will whine and they will whine too, but it’s all talk. 99.9% of them know they are full of poop. The other 1 in a 1000 might be a problem, but not one that threatens our democracy.

  137. 137.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @gogol’s wife:

    I get almost a call a day from one particular Canadian friend who is JUST. FREAKING. OUT. at the entire idea that we might actually elect the Drumpf.

  138. 138.

    gf120581

    @Baud: Not to mention Pence is down there to campaign (and also huddle with McCain; love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation). AZ is very much in play this year.

    Meanwhile, the Clintons are campaigning in NE and UT.

  139. 139.

    Gin & Tonic

    @smintheus: Kind of reminiscent of “We were somewhere around Barstow on the edge of the desert when the drugs began to take hold.”

  141. 141.

    Miss Bianca

    Off-Trump Topic: My big old dog has suddenly started eating paper. I mean, chewing and swallowing. She first did it with old sheets of one of my stories, so at first I thought maybe it was meant as a criticism, but now she’s doing it with any piece of paper she finds on the floor. Is this the sign of some deficiency? Senility? Does she need more fibre in her diet? Anybody have any idea?

  142. 142.

    schrodinger's cat

    @MisterForkbeard: I did hear from her this afternoon. I am gently trying to point to her the lunacy of what she thinks is an oh-so middle of the road position. Where in reality she has veered onto the rumble strip and is soon going to hit the guard rail

  143. 143.

    ted mills

    I bet we’re also to hear “The rules are unfair, I won’t debate” change to “The Dems won’t *let me* debate!” Because nothing says the modern GOP like victimhood.

  147. 147.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Miss Bianca:

    I wish I could think of something to say beyond a variation on the obvious “the dog ate my homework” joke.

    I’d give the vet a call tomorrow morning, if only to rule out serious problems.

    And please let us know! Good luck!

  150. 150.

    Jay C

    @Tim C.:

    It isn’t the infinitesimal percentage of nuts “out there” that’s going to be the problem: its the 230 or so (Republican) nuts in Congress that will be the REAL danger to the country.

  151. 151.

    Brachiator

    @redshirt:

    Test: Did the blog recently freak out for anyone else, or just me? No response for like 10 minutes.

    A short hiccup, maybe.

    BTW, I have not read any reviews in detail, but a growing consensus is forming that DC has failed again with the Suicide Squad movie. Shame.

  152. 152.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @redshirt: Yeah, it’s behaving badly, and has been for some time now. Only site I consistently get sent to the Yahoo error handler for

  155. 155.

    Gin & Tonic

    Jonathan Martin of the NYT writes that Meg Whitman is coming out for HRC, to the tune of a 6-figure donation.

  157. 157.

    redshirt

    @Brachiator: I’ve been reading the same. I’m not sure what to feel. I am pro ALL super hero media, but mine is Marvel and DC Studios have shown they suck bad so far, and that they have so many films in the pipeline is disturbing. I mean, they need a full Snyder-less reboot of the entire Universe but with so much already committed, can they?

  160. 160.

    Mike in DC

    Meg Whitman announced she’s voting for Clinton. The trickle begins. By November it may be a flood.

  161. 161.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @piratedan: Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick fires back with McCain’s tepid endorsement of an asshole who is slandering a gold star family?

  162. 162.

    redshirt

    @Gin & Tonic: Wow. I’m loving it!

    Think of Obama’s wins v McCain and Romney.
    How many of those Obama voters will Hillary lose? Some, perhaps. Not many.
    Now think of how many of those non-Obama voters will vote Hillary, like white Republican women.
    A significant number, I think.

    Barring some catastrophe, how does Hillary not win by bigger margins than Obama 2008?

  168. 168.

    Brachiator

    @redshirt:

    I mean, they need a full Snyder-less reboot of the entire Universe but with so much already committed, can they?

    Wonder Woman seems to be a separate entity, but Justice League and other movies have close Snyder connections. A deep reboot is unlikely. We’ll see what else they can come up with.

  169. 169.

    burnspbesq

    And despite all of these successful VRA Section 2 cases, there are those (yes, third-rate Poli Sci professor at a fourth-rate school who insists on claiming that he knows law better than all the lawyers, I am looking right at you) who continue to maintain that Shelby County eviscerated the Voting Rights Act.

    Well, it’s a horribly reasoned opinion, but all it seems to have eviscerated is Roberts’ reputation.

  171. 171.

    NoraLenderbee

    @Princess (now General) Leia:

    I think this is peaking too early – better if this was late October.

    Same here. Two possibilities:
    –Trump goes. Repubs bring in someone else, and the #NeverTrump Rs heave a giant sigh of relief and vote R. It hardly matters who the replacement is.

    –Trump stays. The current craziness can’t be sustained, he quiets down, and to fill the remaining months of dead air, the Rs/MSM conjure up some new faux scandal against Obama or HRC; by November, that’s all anyone’s talking about and Trump’s crazy is semi-forgotten.

  172. 172.

    Brachiator

    @Mike in DC:

    Meg Whitman announced she’s voting for Clinton. The trickle begins. By November it may be a flood.

    I would love to see more Republicans, led by Republican women, shift to Clinton.

  177. 177.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    Glenn Beck’s thinking about voting for Johnson. I doubt any Trumpsters would cross over, but Cruz supporters probably will.

  178. 178.

    NoraLenderbee

    BTW, I don’t know if this is customary here, but I’m delurking belatedly. Hi! I’m a middle-aged white woman liberal/progressive (former smart girl with glasses who did all the work on the group project), who would crawl over broken glass to vote for HRC. I discovered BJ a few months ago via LawyersGunsMoney and NoMore Mister Nice, and you have saved my sanity. I’ve laughed more in the last few weeks than in months.

  180. 180.

    Adam L Silverman

    @redshirt: The Great Rebellion was decisively won on the battlefield. The issue was that battlefield termination is not sufficient. You have to have a strategy for winning/securing the peace, not just the war. While there’s no way to know if Lincoln had such a strategy (I’ve always thought he did, but it can’t be proven), we know Johnson didn’t. The WW I Allies had one, but it turned out to be a bad one that bit them on the ass. We had a very good one after WW II. Korean War is a bit of a special snowflake because of the armistice with the North, but the plan for the South has worked out very well. Vietnam was Nixon and Kissinger – they had a plan to extend the war to secure an election, not the peace. So fugadebout it! Desert Storm had a post termination management plan for containment that worked pretty well. OIF and OEF – strategic malpractice. No strategy for securing the peace. Every strategy for fighting and winning a war is incomplete without a strategy for securing the peace.

  186. 186.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @NoraLenderbee:

    and you have saved my sanity.

    That’s seldom said around here. Please stay delurked – until you really annoy me over something trivial, of course.

  187. 187.

    dmsilev

    @NoraLenderbee: Or, more hopefully, option three: the Trump campaign crashes and burns, and the Republicans switch to triage mode, throw him overboard rhetorically, and do their best to disavow any connection. The fall is spent with Trump and the rest of the GOP trading verbal salvos, while Hillary and her supporters watch the show from a safe distance.

  192. 192.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: It was a criminal case that she defended in Arkansas. Snopes. Based on the facts of the case, she appears to have done a good job for her client. It was before rape shield laws so while some of her actions may seem off to us today, they were perfectly within the Canon back then.

  193. 193.

    burnspbesq

    @Mnemosyne:

    I’m really pissed at the far left for painting the very liberal Garland as some kind of right-wing mole because they didn’t like a Guantanamo decision.

    There have been plenty of mystifying Gitmo decisions from the D.C. Circuit, but I remember most of them being written by Kavanaugh.

  194. 194.

    Adam L Silverman

    @redshirt: It did, I got Alain on the line ASAP. He thinks it was a blitz attack that was quickly suppressed by the hosting folks.

  196. 196.

    dmsilev

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: There’s no provision for the Party to say ‘never mind’ to its nominee after the Convention is over. If he chooses to step aside (or drops dead), the RNC can replace him, but they can’t force him out. I suppose he could be ‘encouraged’ to decide to step aside, but if he were amenable to that sort of thing, it would have already happened.

  197. 197.

    Immanentize

    @burnspbesq: my good friend was the head of section 5 in DOJ. Shelby County evicerated the broad effectiveness of the voting rights act, K?

    /s/ IAAL

  199. 199.

    redshirt

    @Adam L Silverman: Wonderful summation of the last 150 years of wars for the USA. I agree 100%.

    One of the greatest losses for the entire world was Lincoln not managing Reconstruction. Of course we have no evidence of anything, since it’s all hypotethical, but given his past behavior it seems safe to assume he’d be fair but firm; could racism have been wrung out of the South with enlightened leadership in the years 1865-1869, at least? And given the lack of term limits, maybe Lincoln could have gone on Presidenting for another 4-12 years.

  203. 203.

    Prescott Cactus

    .@NoraLenderbee:

    “… I discovered BJ a few months. . . and you have saved my sanity. . .

    Thank you for un-lurking.

    Be careful of mentioning Balloon Juice and saving your sanity in public places. Or carry large amounts of bail most at all times.

  204. 204.

    sigaba

    @Adam L Silverman @Mnemosyne: Wasn’t the Dallas shooter a black sovcit too? I was researching all of this for a screenplay a few years ago (don’t ask how is going) and there’s this whole “Moorish” Sovereign Citizen movement that’s half Nation of Islam and half Redemption Theory. When Wesley Snipes had his whole Capital Letters incident with the IRS he was reading their literature, apparently.

    (Correction, it was the Baton Rouge cop killer.)

  205. 205.

    David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch

    Trump Steps Up His Criticism of Khans and G.O.P. Leaders

    By ALEXANDER BURNS 8:48 PM ET

    Donald J. Trump’s top advisers have urged him to move on from the feud with the family of a Muslim American Army captain, but he has continued to attack.

    Mr. Trump also clashed with Republicans who criticized him, declining to endorse the House speaker, Paul D. Ryan, and Senator John McCain for re-election.

    Pivot

  206. 206.

    burnspbesq

    @Brachiator:

    I have this fantasy where Stone and Trump actively advocate insurrection, and end up becoming the last internees at Gitmo.

    Naw. nobody deserves to go to Gitmo. I suppose you could lock those two up in the Supermax in Colorado without worrying about an Eighth Amendment claim, because they’re already fucked up in the head. Or put them in Marion, with very large Chicago gang enforcers as cellmates.

  217. 217.

    patroclus

    Prime Minister Lee of Singapore totally trolled Trump tonight at the State Dinner at the WH. In his toast to the Obamas, he mentioned that Singapore was naming a hybrid orchid after the Obamas – it’s an orchid that is native to only Singapore and Hawaii. In his prepared remarks, the PM said that it was appropriate because that was where Obama was born, but then he riffed “at least that’s what most of us believe.” He got a good laugh.

  218. 218.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @dmsilev: I’m thinking they only way they’d get him to drop out is if he was paid to do so. As I noted in my initial comment, even if that happened they’d still be fucked just like McGovern was with Eagleton.

  222. 222.

    redshirt

    @Adam L Silverman:

    @redshirt: It did, I got Alain on the line ASAP. He thinks it was a blitz attack that was quickly suppressed by the hosting folks.

    The perfect response in the current environment.

    Though maybe Alain could have some sort of monitoring program.

  227. 227.

    burnspbesq

    Am I the only white person who had never heard of Ajabu Baraka before this afternoon?

  228. 228.

    Howard Beale IV

    As seen on Twitter….

    Sean Hannity:

    Question of the Day: In light of @realDonaldTrump’s comments, do you think the general election could be rigged? Weigh in using #Hannity.

    Josh Barro, Business Insider:

    fuck you

  230. 230.

    Fair Economist

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Jonathan Martin of the NYT writes that Meg Whitman is coming out for HRC, to the tune of a 6-figure donation.

    It just occurred to me that the Republican demand for absolute submission to orthodoxy is going to bite them on this later. Elected officials obviously aren’t going to declare for Hillary except in very rare circumstances. But funders (like Whitman) and intellectuals (like RedState’s Leon Wolf) are, and their assistance/advice won’t be tolerated by the Republican party voters in the future. Any Republican candidate getting money from Whitman or advice from Wolf is going to get barraged with accusations of “working with the Hillary-loving traitor”.

    We already are looking at a substantive schism within the Republican party.

  233. 233.

    Immanentize

    @burnspbesq: none of the section 2 cases would have existed if section 5 pre clearance was still in place. Are you a lawyer? Do you understand how radically the burden of proof has changed from the government to voters? Do you realize none of these voting changes would have passed section 5 scrutiny?

    Section 2 is an awful and narrow substitute for section 5 pre clearance. Real people are real suffering because section 5 was dismantled. So is our democracy. I really do not understand your argument one wit.

  234. 234.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: Gotcha. I remember that there was a claim surrounding the debunked allegations of rape that Juanita Broaddrick has made involving President Clinton that included her stating that Secretary Clinton had mocked or laughed at her. I conflated the two.

  238. 238.

    redshirt

    @Fair Economist: I wonder how much money papers over any such disagreements.

    But then, if you can’t buy influence, only “protection”, is it worth it for a losing candidate? One who won’t be able to threaten you in a few months.

  241. 241.

    Adam L Silverman

    @sigaba: The Baton Rouge shooter was. The Dallas shooter had drifted into Black Nationalism.

    I’ve done a lot of research over the years on domestic extremism, so please ping me offline if you need anything for the screen play.

  242. 242.

    dmsilev

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: At this point, I don’t think money would do the trick, even the sort of money that the Kochs or Adelson or whoever could make available. Trump’s ego is involved now, and his love of self is probably the only thing stronger than his love of money.

  243. 243.

    sigaba

    @Adam L Silverman: Following Clinton scandals requires a concordance, any confusion is forgiven. Like the Bible there are constant recapitulations and parallelisms, as the authors keep trying to square events with prophecy.

  246. 246.

    Tim C.

    Chiming in again. GOP cannot drop Trump. The rabid base loves him and would view him being dropped, even if it were possible, as yet another betrayal. The GOP would lose all the asshole racists and then the senate and almost certainly the house.

  247. 247.

    sigaba

    @Adam L Silverman: I have so much in the OneNote notebook. The problem is finding a way of making the characters compelling and making an audience want to follow them down a rabbit hole.

    Something like Blood in the Face except following a single family or man and making it sympathetic.

  251. 251.

    NoraLenderbee

    @redshirt: Never. If Bernie had been running against someone else, I might have voted for him, but not over Hillary.

    Thank you all for the warm welcome!

  255. 255.

    David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch

    John Harwood @JohnJHarwood

    longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager: “Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.”

    5:30 PM – 2 Aug 2016
    5,067 retweets 5,044 likes

    Ali Vitali @alivitali

    A Trump campaign source, in reaction to this, tells me “it’s all true” and “way worse than people realize.”

    Retweets
    3,805
    Likes
    3,065

    6:11 PM – 2 Aug 2016

  256. 256.

    Kay

    @burnspbesq:

    From the North Carolina opinion:

    After years of preclearance and expansion of voting access,
    by 2013 African American registration and turnout rates had
    finally reached near-parity with white registration and turnout
    rates. African Americans were poised to act as a major
    electoral force. But, on the day after the Supreme Court issued
    Shelby County v. Holder, 133 S. Ct. 2612 (2013), eliminating
    preclearance obligations,     a leader of the party that newly
    dominated the legislature (and the party that rarely enjoyed
    African American support) announced an intention to enact what
    he characterized as an “omnibus” election law.

    Then, in late June 2013, the Supreme Court issued its
    opinion in Shelby County. In it, the Court invalidated the
    preclearance coverage formula, finding it based on outdated
    data. Shelby Cty., 133 S. Ct. at 2631. Consequently, as of
    that date, North Carolina no longer needed to preclear changes …..

    In addition to this general statutory prohibition on racial
    discrimination, Congress identified particular jurisdictions
    “covered” by § 5 of the Voting Rights Act. Shelby Cty., 133
    S. Ct. at 2619. C

    Honestly burns, how can you still be denying this? THE POINT of preclearance was laws like this. The court eliminated preclearance and the laws went in. What more do you want?

  260. 260.

    Mnemosyne

    @sigaba:

    Have you seen “Romper Stomper,” with a young Russell Crowe? That’s along those lines.

    But there’s only so much audience sympathy you can gain for characters who are white supremacists unless you’re going to have them recant.

  266. 266.

    Immanentize

    @Kay: I salute you (and always have in my heart). These voting suppression changes were the direct result of the court dismantling section 5. Like in so many things, the right wing’s mistake was going too far too fast with so much evidence (email etc.) of their racist intents. My favorite in the North Carolina case was the study commissioned by the legislature to determine which voting procedures increased minority voting the most. Then they ended those procedures….

  269. 269.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kay: Not to join in the pile on, but pre-clearance would have prevented many of the laws. Not WI, but NC and TX at least.

  270. 270.

    burnspbesq

    @Immanentize:

    Do you seriously think that none of these states would have challenged a DOJ decision not to pre-clear? The only difference is that the litigation would have been concentrated in D.C. instead of being geographically dispersed.

    You can stop now. You haven’t sold me yet, and if that’s all you have, you’re not going to.

  273. 273.

    burnspbesq

    @Immanentize:

    Real people are real suffering because section 5 was dismantled.

    Name one person, anywhere in America, who will be unable to vote this November because the cases had to be brought under Section 2 rather than Section 5.

    The only people who suffered were the DOJ lawyers who had to live in Government-rate hotels for months at a time.

  274. 274.

    sigaba

    @Mnemosyne: Hollywood formulas! Recant, bah!

    I can see recanting from white supremacy but Tony Kaye already made that movie. Recanting from Sovereign Citizenship is a much trickier bird. Also frankly I see the whole thing as a horrible tragedy, or like Shallow Grave.

  275. 275.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: No, he had drifted (technical term) into Black Nationalism. So this fits within your label of hashtag terrorism, which I’ve begun playing with in some conceptual work for providing some structure to the stochastic terrorism concept first floated by a diarist at DKos a number of years back. It also provides an empirically systematized theoretical explanation for Tom Nichol’s lost boys concept.

    What we’re looking at is:
    1) The criminological Neutralization and Drift. This is a type of social learning theory developed by Sykes and Matzah. It has five components:
    a) Denial of responsibility
    b) Denial of injury
    c) Denial of victim
    d) Condemnation of the condemners
    e) Appeal to higher loyalties
    The first three justifications all deal with denial. They allow the offender to rationalize his behavior as outside of his control. He or she is not really hurting anyone. Even if someone is hurt they may have deserved it. The last two are more affirmative to an ideology. They all work in concert to allow for the neutralization of societal norms, socialization to law, etc.

    2) Neutralization and drift is a normal developmental process. When Sykes and Matzah, and other criminologists and sociologists, were applying it they were focusing on the neutralization of societal norms and the drift into and out of delinquency.

    3) What the literature on immigration and crime tells us is that the 1st generation, unless relocating specifically to predate, generally does not engage in delinquency and/or crime. Rather then 2nd, 3rd, and successive generations do.

    4) What we are dealing with, with the radicalized tawheed promoted by IS, and the earlier variant promoted by AQ, is that some young men, and sometimes women, from Muslim immigrant communities now use radicalized tawheed to neutralize their communities religious norms and the larger societal norms and then drift into radicalism rather than delinquency.

    5) This appears to be a similar process with the Dallas shooter and Dylan Roof in Charleston. So we’re seeing the neutralization of norms and the drift into extremism among some immigrant communities, but also within domestic ones too. The pathways are the same.

  276. 276.

    Aleta

    Somehow the country coming together to defeat Trump, though welcome, doesn’t make the US seem as heroic as when it bonded to stop Germany and Japan.

  278. 278.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Immanentize: I had a case once where a guy told me, “I couldn’t possibly be a racist–I’m vice-chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party!”

    Oh how I laughed

  279. 279.

    Lizzy L

    Serious question: if a Presidential nominee develops a serious medical issue — let’s say, uncontrolled adult onset epilepsy, or untreatable pancreatic cancer — what is the option for the party? I presume the Presidential nominee could withdraw, but who would take the spot. His VP nominee? The person who came in second in the primary voting? Any ideas? I genuinely don’t know.

  280. 280.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Miss Bianca: If you are avoiding taking up arms against someone who argues that effect can be used for both affect and effect, I am saddened. I say that this sloppiness shall not stand.

  283. 283.

    scav

    @Fair Economist: “substantive schism within the Republican party.” possibly several, I would think, although we’ll have to watch things evolve. There’s the Money / Establishment breakaway (Whitman example) from lockstep orthodoxy (which is interesting on multiple fronts, in part as it almost further fuels the circled wild-eyed orthodoxy but also in the happenstance that HC is probably an easier landing pad for them that other possible candidates (known quantity, historically very center, even uncomfortably so for some). But the military Gold Star / Purple Heart / booing AF mother might get the nominally faithful arguing among themselves, especially as they tend male (and old), so I’d imagine there are a solid proportion of vets to personalize the difference of opinions. I’d actually save my special popcorn to watch any kurfuffle here in the rabid Bull Ring Theatre.

  286. 286.

    sigaba

    @Aleta: When we defeated Germany we didn’t have to live next door to the Germans, nor slap a smile on our faces as we watched them vote our Congress out of power two years later.

  287. 287.

    Kay

    @burnspbesq:

    I don’t know why you’re not relying on the opinion, 3/4’s of which identifies this problem as directly attributable to “eliminating” preclearance. You may object to the word “gutting” but eliminating is pretty clear, burns.

    They were dead wrong to gut it.

    The numbers are eye-popping. AA registration went up 51%. Turn out up by 30%. Roberts had to sit up there an ignore everything that was presented to reach his decision and we know WHY he did- because he’s had a purely ideological objection to preclearance for decades. He wasn’t relying on facts or law. He believes..stuff.

    During the period in which North Carolina jurisdictions
    were covered by § 5, African American electoral participation
    dramatically improved. In particular, between 2000 and 2012,
    when the law provided for the voting mechanisms at issue here
    and did not require photo ID, African American voter
    registration swelled by 51.1%. J.A. 8041 (compared to an
    increase of 15.8% for white voters). African American turnout
    similarly surged, from 41.9% in 2000 to 71.5% in 2008 and 68.5%
    in 2012. J.A. 1196-97. Not coincidentally, during this period
    North Carolina emerged as a swing state in national elections.

  288. 288.

    Adam L Silverman

    @redshirt: His supporters will be threatening folks, at least politically and electorally, for a long time to come. Once norms are destroyed they are hard to reestablish/restore/reimpose. They have been empowered, a lot have been pulled from the fringe/extreme into the mainstream, and they are not going to go away. And they are very, very angry.

  290. 290.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    f you are avoiding taking up arms against someone who argues that effect can be used for both affect and effect, I am saddened. I say that this sloppiness shall not stand.

    I stand with you, my Badger brother. Repent, Major^4!

  291. 291.

    Immanentize

    @burnspbesq:

    Under Section 5, the jurisdiction would have to demonstrate that there was no negative impact on a covered group of voters — high burden!

    In section 2, the plaintiff voters have to prove discriminatory intent behind the change (significant impact may be used as evidence of intent). Very very high burden!!

    Which system is better for voters? And, section 2 challenges are hugely costly to the voter plaintiffs. Section 5 litigation costs are borne by the government. Which is better for voters?

    I will stop now because I am thinking if you don’t get this, you maybe just don’t like federal government oversight of voter protections?

  293. 293.

    Miss Bianca

    @Omnes Omnibus:Your Honor, while I deplore the crime – indeed, I do! – I just don’t consider it a killing offense. “Townhome” v. “Townhouse”, yes. But as far as I can tell the defendant has not, in fact, ever used that noxious nelogisim beloved of realtors and admen.

  294. 294.

    Adam L Silverman

    @sigaba: Lets talk offline. I have some time right now and may be/should be able to help you find a way through the maze.

  297. 297.

    Kay

    @Immanentize:

    My favorite in the North Carolina case was the study commissioned by the legislature to determine which voting procedures increased minority voting the most. Then they ended those procedures….

    Me too. I love the careful cutting of the specific early voting days with the heaviest AA turnout. It’s just crazy. They freaking attacked black voters in that statehouse. Teams of people busily working away on this completely malicious goal, for weeks, and right out in the open!

  298. 298.

    Steve in the ATL

    @efgoldman: Tax lawyer:legal profession::podiatrist:medical profession. Zing!

    burns/btrns, you seem to be the only lawyer here on your side of this debate.

  300. 300.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Katy Tur ‏@ KatyTurNBC 28m28 minutes ago
    Top republican: @ Reince is ‘apoplectic’ over Trump’s refusal to back Ryan. He called several Trump staffers to express his displeasure.

    “You tell Mr Trump I’m really hot under the collar, yer darn tootin’!– Well, no, I don’t want to talk to him, I have to tweet something now….”

    I’m sure Trump peed himself in fear.

  305. 305.

    Mnemosyne

    @sigaba:

    So you want to do a “Godfather” type of thing, where Michael goes from being the war hero who will finally make his family respectable to being a criminal himself. (People kinda tend to forget that the ending of that movie is meant to be tragic and downbeat, not triumphant.)

    For some reason, the other example that comes to mind is “Dead Ringers,” where Jeremy Irons plays successful twin surgeons who slowly go mad together.

    It’s a tough row to hoe, but it can be done.

  308. 308.

    hovercraft

    @Lizzy L:
    VP moves up and then gets to choose a running mate. In one of the threads last night someone posted the relevant section of the rules after Stuart Stevens said there was a mechanism to remove the nominee. It’s never gonna happen, the mouth breathers would tear the party apart.

  314. 314.

    dmsilev

    @Lizzy L:

    Serious question: if a Presidential nominee develops a serious medical issue — let’s say, uncontrolled adult onset epilepsy, or untreatable pancreatic cancer — what is the option for the party? I presume the Presidential nominee could withdraw, but who would take the spot. His VP nominee? The person who came in second in the primary voting? Any ideas? I genuinely don’t know.

    Adam linked to the RNC bylaws last night, and I was bored enough to read through them. The gist of it is that if a nominee steps down or drops dead after the convention, the members of the RNC (with comittee members from all states, though in what proportion I didn’t care enough to check) meet to select a replacement. There’s no other restriction; they could pick Mike Pence (veep nominee), Ted Cruz (primary runner-up), Paul Ryan (highest ranking GOP pol), Mitt Romney because why not, or even Zombie Reagan.

  326. 326.

    Tripod

    @dmsilev:

    They should have a cage match between John McCain and RMoney…. and then Trump break his bonds and bash the winner over the head with a chair. He’ll get his gal back and free America.

  328. 328.

    Immanentize

    @efgoldman: dear ef, I have been off the grid for almost two weeks in Glacier National hiking and sucking wind because out of shape. But every few days I could pirate some wifi and I would download a thread and read it when I had the chance. I saw you are planning a move to DC?! Can we have a Boston BJ meet up before you leave?

  333. 333.

    dmsilev

    @Tripod: I think I’ve figured it out Trump is an Orange version of the Incredible Hulk, and he’s always angry which explains why we never like him.

  334. 334.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    Trump must be shacking in his boots. These fuckers sowed these seeds 8 years ago and now the vines are fully grown, good luck getting yourselves untangled. You can’t just pull the vines, the roots run too damn deep.

  337. 337.

    scav

    @Miss Bianca: a slide deck?

    actually, just think about the words for a bit. Repeat them silently a few times. Lengthen the vowels. They only get better and better. OK. Make ’em social

  338. 338.

    Immanentize

    @efgoldman: good on theoretical. Good on nudging AL. I will be back from Montana and back on good wifi and back to east coast morning time this Friday ….

  341. 341.

    Miss Bianca

    @scav: Why do I suddenly feel like I’m having one of those dreams where I’m in my underpants in the school corridor?

  343. 343.

    Immanentize

    @Steve in the ATL: this made me laugh. Then I Kinda got sad because I am sure he thought that was a perfectly reasonable response. As my colleague in Texas would say, “They do reveal themselves.”

  349. 349.

    philadelphialawyer

    @burnspbesq: contesting pre clearance denial puts burden of proof on State. State also needs to file suit and win. Unless and until that happens, law not in effect. w/out pre clearance rule, State does what it wants, and then b of p and need to litigate is on challengers. if pre clearance was still in effect, these laws probly would not have even been passed, cuz they were doomed. plus, now seeing local and county voter suppression crap that would also have needed pre clearance….u r flat out wrong….

  350. 350.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Miss Bianca: It wouldn’t be all that useful to ordinary mortals. I never put my notes in the deck. I knew what I wanted to say and didn’t put any text in.

  351. 351.

    SFAW

    @gf120581:

    Is Susan Collins going to bite the bullet and come out for Hillary?

    She’ll talk a good game for a while. But in the end, she’ll still vote against Obamacare the Partei line.

  354. 354.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Miss Bianca: It’s not not yet my birthday. Fire away. Anything after midnight CDT will sadden me. Until then, free fire zone.

    ETA: I just want people to be happy.

  356. 356.

    scav

    @Adam L Silverman: No one’s ever discovered a cure. Words, they just warp, transfigure, meanings meld and then I lose it. You want weird?! There was a residual slip and slide image that somehow teleported into that slide deck.

  357. 357.

    SFAW

    @efgoldman:

    You’re moving to DC? What’s the time-frame for that? (I had no idea about this, until I saw Immanentize mention it. I guess I missed the “announcement” the first time around.)

  366. 366.

    TheMightyTrowel

    @Adam L Silverman: i know right. I actually love other people’s lecture slides. I know that’s weird. But I get so much out of them – ideas, weird comics, random references I’d never have found on my own. So much of my own teaching is owed to lessons learned by skimming other people’s classes via their online powerpoints!

  370. 370.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TheMightyTrowel: These are just a straight up point by point delineation for my own usage. I was converting my Dad’s lecture notes, after he died, from his handwritten notebooks, into powerpoint. I have the originals, but eventually the paper will go the way of all things. So other than one picture, there’s nothing much exciting. Just point after point laying each concept out.

  371. 371.

    fuckwit

    I dislike Scott Adams, but he’s dead on the money here: Troll is using HYPNOSIS, expertly and aggressively.

    “I just hear things, and I just feel it.”

    Those commands. Hypnotic suggestions. Just HEAR things and just FEEL it. Don’t think. Just hear things. And feel them. Sleep now.

    This shit works on the ignorant voters who watch FAUX “News” and can’t really make out too much on the screen but they HEAR things and they FEEL them.

    Troll is actively dangerous. What’s going to happen to the weak minds who HEAR things and FEEL them? You know, the kinds that have unlimited access to assault weapons?

    This is some scary shit. Peak wingnut isn’t even on the horizon.

  375. 375.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Miss Bianca: You don’t know how thankful I was that Roger Moore brought the green balloons to id where the group was at our meetup here in Glendale(actually it was in LA, but just across the train tracks).

  380. 380.

    scav

    Eek, Social Learning Theory even shows up in optimization heuristics. Now there’s eerie time travel nostalgia of a semi-painful sort.

  381. 381.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TheMightyTrowel: No. All of the criminology decks are like this. Most of my seminar decks from the war college are very different. Specific point of discussion or questions to get the students going with, usually, either a relevant chart or graph or a fun image to break things up. The idea is to not get them to focus on the slides, but to simply use the bullet points as a visual cue for the seminar discussions.

    My briefing slides tend to be a bit more in depth, but not much. I don’t like having too much on each slide. And I tend to avoid the humorous images on these.

  382. 382.

    Adam L Silverman

    @scav: Its the most empirically powerful social science theory there is, when used correctly. So that doesn’t surprise me. I was one of Akers’ last doctoral students. For a while I was the last, then he came out of retirement for a bit as a favor to the university.

  386. 386.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: very little lecturing at the war college. Unfortunately this sometimes contributed to a rousing three our discussion of absolutely nothing of value, because everyone could have benefitted from 30 minutes of orienting presentation at the start the session. I once had to stop one of the econ lesson and do an impromptu briefing on the difference between macro and micro economics and fiscal versus monetary policy. I knew we were in trouble when I asked if everyone new who Friedman was and several O5s and O6s replied with “Tom?” – ugh!

  388. 388.

    scav

    @Adam L Silverman: What was fascinating about the optimization (and geographic modeling phase) was how varied the core concepts could be. Jumping from learning how metals were annealed to theories of genetics. Never personally got too far into the geographic modeling of journey to crime (etc), but had enough of a behavioral geo background to attend some sessions where models came up.

  390. 390.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @fuckwit: With that vile Nixonite Stone hinting at armed rebellion if the election is “fradulent” and Drumpf loses, well, let’s get busy!

  392. 392.

    Adam L Silverman

    @scav: The geo-coding for analysis of crime is called hotspotting, which is actually based on the only variant of rational actor/utility maximization theory that wasn’t run out of the discipline: Routine Activity Theory. And even routine activity theory has a learning component to it.

  394. 394.

    scav

    @Adam L Silverman: Jargon update! (ok, keywords) thanks. Any models left with animal predation antecedents? I thought that was a thing for a bit.

    ETA: O! and there was a grand odd talk at one of those sessions where someone was working on maps of various white collar crimes that went more in a cluster analysis hot-spot direction (techniques more like identifying cancer clusters). Based on residences, not workplaces.

  395. 395.

    Brachiator

    @efgoldman:

    Notice that no-one who’s actually subject to even a possible primary from the right, this cycle or next, has stepped away and un-endorsed Weasel Head or endorsed HRC. Don’t hold your breath. So far they’ve all chosen the rock of Hair Fuehrer over the hard place of common sense.

    I’m just watching to see what might happen. There have been prominent Republicans who have said that they will not vote for Trump or Hillary. Again,no candidate facing an election challenge, but still a refusal to be ruled by party loyalty.

    This is a strange election season. The GOP has created an awful predicament for itself, and a dilemma for their voters. Unless Trump shuts up or quiets down, I think that more GOP voters will come to a decision that he must be stopped, even if they don’t announce it publicly. And if he piles on more verbal outrages, especially relating to patriotism or other Republican sacred cows, it may be harder for prominent Republicans to avoid some kind of public declaration.

  396. 396.

    Adam L Silverman

    @scav: Good question? I don’t know. The empirical model I used, when I was doing that sort of thing, was a slightly tweaked (Akers) social learning model with some of Agnew’s strain theory (modern anomie) and a couple of things from Ken Wald’s (my polisci chair) religion and politics explanations thrown in.

  397. 397.

    Adam L Silverman

    @scav: That doesn’t surprise me. I think that’s the social learning component. The folks that commit the crimes all learn the definitions neutralizing of the norms and laws that allow them to commit their crimes from each other. So you get the development of a distinct sub-culture through the primary association of the business community in a specific place.

  398. 398.

    scav

    @Adam L Silverman: All sorts of fun things to explore about the social ins and outs by comparing work-based (and presumably industry) social norms (crime clusters there) and home-based (presumably more class / personal social norms). I should wander and pretend to sleep now, although how I got here from a slide deck neural crash will amuse me for a bit longer. Thanks.

  403. 403.

    sherparick

    @Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.): First, Roger Stone is an immoral grifter and his boss is a coward so they will be the last persons to try to do a a William Lowndes Yancey and Edmund Ruffin after November 8. Second, for Stone, Trump, and the Republican Base, Black and Brown people voting is per se “voter fraud” because, since they are not “White,” they are not “real Murricans,” as Sarah Palin so aptly put it. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/magazine/voting-rights-act-dream-undone.html?_r=0

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