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You are here: Home / Old man, take a look at my life

Old man, take a look at my life

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I’ve been hearing a lot that Manafort won’t talk because he knows he’ll get pardoned:

I project this scenario: Manafort, having already pled ‘not guilty,’ clams up. He has no incentive to speak because he has no fear. Months (or years) from now, just before trial, Trump issues some tweets to the effect of This is all an attack by Hillary Clinton supporters!, and he pardons Manafort and anybody else who has been indicted by Mueller. If Mueller then brings Manafort before the Grand Jury and demands he answer questions because he no longer has any legitimate fear of federal prosecution because of his pardon, Manafort will take the Fifth because he is still subject to criminal liability in New York State, where much of the money laundering occurred. Manafort’s assertion of the privilege will be upheld because Trump’s pardon affected only federal charges.

There are two problems with this scenario. One: If Manafort is still subject to criminal liability in New York State, wouldn’t he want to cut a deal to get himself out of that? Two: Trump is an old, obese man….what if he has a stroke or a heart attack? Is Manafort sure that Pence would pardon him too? Not to mention that Trump is not exactly a loyal guy. I’d be awful nervous if the only thing that stood between me and life in prison (Manafort is 68 and 12 counts adds up to a lot of years) was the future word of a fat, elderly sociopath.

Reader Interactions

84Comments

  1. 1.

    rikyrah

    ICYMI,
    The #2 lawyer in the Marine Corps is in jail AT GUANTANAMO, because he was standing up for a fair defense for an inmate down there.

    ……………………….

    THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 11/1/17
    Chaos in Guantanamo as makeshift legal process hits a conflict
    Rachel Maddow explains how the improvised legal system at Guantanamo Bay has produced a conflict over authority between a judge and the chief legal counsel over whether civilian defense attorneys can be forced to participate in proceedings.

  2. 2.

    Lapassionara

    Doesn’t the NY AG indict him if Trump pardons him? Cylla and Charibdis, how do they work?

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    I think there’s more than enough documentary evidence to put Manafort away even if he never says a word to anyone.

  7. 7.

    Penus

    Manafort may be better off in jail. Even independent of this Trump stuff, I think he’s done some very bad things for some very bad people who wouldn’t stop at much to keep it from getting out.

  8. 8.

    Bill

    Betting on Trump being loyal at some future date is a VERY risky proposition. It’s as likely that Trump will throw Manafort under the bus as that he will issue pardons. Especially when pardons could be one of the very few things that gets congressional Republicans to start talking impeachment. (I know, its always party before country with R’s. But there is some tipping point, if only for self preservation.)

    Manafort’s bigger worry may be his former clients in the Ukraine/Russia. In the end, his analysis may come down to whether it’s better to live out his days in a federal minimum security prison or not be living at all. That may be his incentive to keep his mouth shut.

  11. 11.

    Amir Khalid

    @Lapassionara:
    I dunno about you, but I kind of look forward to seeing the Dotard try to make the Governor of New York issue a state pardon.
    (Edited for clarity.)

  12. 12.

    rikyrah

    THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 11/1/17
    Expert: First Manafort indictment likely not the last
    Jaimie Nawaday, former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, explains to Rachel Maddow why former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is not charged with tax crimes even though they’re described in the indictment.

    THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 11/1/17
    Paul Manafort money-laundering charge explained!
    Jaimie Nawaday, former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, explains to Rachel Maddow the specifics of how the special counsel’s money laundering charge against Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort works.

  13. 13.

    Roger Moore

    The big open question is how much pressure Manafort is under from people other than Mueller. If Putin’s cronies have threatened him and his children if he talks, it makes it much more likely he’ll shut up and hope for a pardon.

  18. 18.

    Wapiti

    @rikyrah: Rationalizing the action of the judge: the defense teams actions – refusing to represent accused after the government eavesdropped on client-attorney discussions – could end the government’s case against a number of accused terrorists. The trails cannot go on. The judge is likely under the gun, trying to get the cases moving.

    But frankly, if the judge’s goal for moving the cases is conviction of accused terrorists, then the military commissions are as flawed as suspected, kangaroo courts. A bad idea for which time has run out.

  19. 19.

    dedc79

    The hypothetical assumes a degree of trust and mutual interest between Trump and Manafort that may well not exist.

  21. 21.

    Yarrow

    @Wapiti: Manafort pushed for Pence. Even told Trump his plane had mechanical troubles so they had to spend another night in Indiana so Trump cold spend more time with Pence.

  22. 22.

    Cermet

    @Wapiti: LOL; remember – pence is a “christan” and as such, all he worships is power (i.e. money.) And unless he (pence) thinks such a pardon would increase his money, that guy is screwed (which he knows already – dolt 45, he knows, depends on his not squealing so a pardon is in his future.)

  23. 23.

    low-tech cyclist

    There’s a third problem with the scenario, and that’s that the investigation either lasts until, or resumes after, a Dem is elected President in 2020, and Mueller still has some charges against Manafort that he’s held off on filing. Maybe the next Dem President will be willing to look back as well as forward.

  24. 24.

    rikyrah

    Trump reportedly wants to name GOP tax plan the ‘Cut Cut Cut Act’
    11/01/17 04:06 PM
    By Steve Benen

    About a month into his presidency, Donald Trump hosted a White House meeting with business leaders and boasted, “I’m good at branding.” That may be true, but it’s not clear if the president has other priorities he takes as seriously.

    For example, two senior administration officials told ABC News the president is determined to name the Republican tax plan “the Cut Cut Cut Act” – and this does not appear to be a joke.

    Less than 24 hours before the bill is slated to be revealed, there is still dispute over the name, according to a senior congressional aide and a senior White House official.

    The sources said it has been decided that the Ways and Means Committee will have the final say over the name.

  28. 28.

    rikyrah

    The President of the United States took to mass media to call for the execution of a person who hasn’t been tried or convicted.

    — David M. Perry (@Lollardfish) November 2, 2017

  29. 29.

    rikyrah

    Buried deep in Robert Mueller’s indictment of Paul Manafort is a new link between Donald Trump’s former campaign and Russian organized crime.

    The indictment (PDF), unsealed on Monday, includes an extensive look into Paul Manafort’s byzantine financial dealings. In particular, it details how he used a company called Lucicle Consultants Limited to wire millions of dollars into the United States.

    The Cyprus-based Lucicle Consultants Limited, in turn, reportedly received millions of dollars from a businessman and Ukrainian parliamentarian named Ivan Fursin, who is closely linked to one of Russia’s most notorious criminals: Semion Mogilevich.

    Mogilevich is frequently described as “the most dangerous mobster in the world.” Currently believed to be safe in Moscow, he is, according to the FBI, responsible for weapons trafficking, contract killings, and international prostitution. In 2009, he made the bureau’s Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mueller-reveals-new-manafort-link-to-organized-crime

  30. 30.

    Tim C.

    Agree with all those who think Manafort is staying quiet to stay alive. The pardon scenario might happen, but the Russians will kill him if he talks and ever leaves custody.

  31. 31.

    Elizabelle

    @Roger Moore: Yeah, I was thinking Manafort may assume his life will be short and its conclusion foregone, but he’s got two daughters and a wife to consider too.

    Maybe they will end up in witness protection.

  35. 35.

    Spanky

    @rikyrah:

    Sam Clovis, Trump’s nominee for USDA’s top scientist, confirms he has no hard science credentials

    And damned proud of it, too.

  37. 37.

    Yarrow

    Manafort’s decision to talk or not talk may also depend on what Mueller has on Manafort’s family and if Manafort cares what happens to his family.

  38. 38.

    Elizabelle

    @rikyrah: Fuck them. Our problem in the US is not that we are overtaxed. It is what the average American gets for taxes, and that is much less than his counterpart in a modern European democracy.

    We should not let them frame the issue, but it is always their framing. Taxes too high! Waahhh — the estate tax. Tax estates over $2-5 million and you will have more revenue than you know what to do with.

  40. 40.

    germy

    @rikyrah:

    Sam Clovis, Trump’s nominee for USDA’s top scientist, confirms he has no hard science credentials

    I remember the first time I laid eyes on Clovis Man. I felt a shudder of alarm thinking he’d be the top guy at the USDA. Teabagger talk radio host. The USDA is too important for the likes of him.

    I’m glad he’s getting this new attention; I thought he’d just slip in like Betsy did.

  42. 42.

    ET

    I wouldn’t be surprised if that is Manafort’s thinking but in Trump’s world Manafort isn’t all that much and he (Manafort) isn’t really a Trump guy like the sheriff was/is. Also, since these particular charges aren’t related to his brief tenure on the campaign – maybe he shouldn’t count on this pardon too soon?

  45. 45.

    JR

    Another thing wrong with the scenario is that there are more charges lined up on Manafort

    He might not talk but the promise of not serving time is not one of the reasons

  46. 46.

    germy

    @Yarrow:

    At least one of his daughters seems to think…

    “Money for blood. Blood money for doin’ no good.”
    – Elvis Costello

  47. 47.

    Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et Al.)

    Yeah, as so many have already said, counting on Manbaby to do him a good turn seems like kind of a dumb move. How can this guy think Trump will bail him out? He knows Trump.

  48. 48.

    germy

    That Donna Brazile piece in politco: It looks to me like an excerpt from her new book. I’m assuming here she covers a ton of GOP misdeeds in the book, and that this DNC business is a small part. But politico, out of all the chapters to choose from, chooses that one. Mission accomplished?

    Or am I just paranoid?

  50. 50.

    rumpole

    Remember that there is an agreement between the NY AG and Mueller to share evidence. THe state has no right to see what DOJ has, so the feds’ leverage is pretty considerable. I would be willing to guess that the deal works out something like DOJ gets first crack at prosecution. If any defendant is pardoned and state prosecution won’t compromise ongoing investigation or other prosecutions, then Schniderman can release the hounds.

    NY state is a problem for Trump–he lived there, and performed lots of deals there. I’m not sure it’s a problem for Manafort, who seems to be a DC-area resident. It’s not clear to me how NY state gets jurisdiction over him unless he performed or furthered a criminal act within the state’s borders. (Suppose, for example, X assaults Y in NJ. He (it’s always a he) then drives down the seaboard to key west and commits no crimes on the way. Can GA indict him for assault? No.)

  51. 51.

    Yarrow

    @rumpole:

    NY state is a problem for Trump–he lived there, and performed lots of deals there. I’m not sure it’s a problem for Manafort, who seems to be a DC-area resident. It’s not clear to me how NY state gets jurisdiction over him unless he performed or furthered a criminal act within the state’s borders.

    Manafort lived in Trump Tower in NYC.

  52. 52.

    NotMax

    Let’s bring up some precedent, shall we?

    Article I, numbers 8 and 9 of impeachment charges drawn up against Nixon:

    8. making or causing to be made false or misleading public statements for the purpose of deceiving the people of the United States into believing that a thorough and complete investigation had been conducted with respect to allegations of misconduct on the part of personnel of the executive branch of the United States and personnel of the Committee for the Re-election of the President, and that there was no involvement of such personnel in such misconduct: or

    9. endeavouring to cause prospective defendants, and individuals duly tried and convicted, to expect favoured treatment and consideration in return for their silence or false testimony, or rewarding individuals for their silence or false testimony. Source

  54. 54.

    NotMax

    @Yarrow

    Among other misdeeds in NY is a luxury apartment he bought on Howard Street in NYC’s SoHo which he is accused of falsely and misleadingly marketing.

  58. 58.

    Yarrow

    @NotMax: Yep. There’s zero reason to think that Manafort won’t be caught up in NY state charges as well. A pardon by Trump won’t do him any good there.

  59. 59.

    rikyrah

    @Penus:

    Manafort may be better off in jail. Even independent of this Trump stuff, I think he’s done some very bad things for some very bad people who wouldn’t stop at much to keep it from getting out.

    This perfectly sums up Manafort’s professional life.

  62. 62.

    mike in dc

    Mueller is building a case against Trump that doesn’t depend solely upon Manafort flipping. I personally think Manafort will flip within 30 days of state charges being brought. Is he going to shut up and do his time? He doesn’t seem like a “stand up guy”. If his family really needs witness protection, they will get it. There’s also the risk of extradition to Ukraine, where they probably would kill him after trial.

  63. 63.

    jhtrotter

    Dumb question, but with all that seemed to be common knowledge about Manafort last year, why was he not unavailable to the dfm trump campaign due to being incarcerated?

    Dumber question, why was dfm trump not unavailable to the dfm trump campaign due to being incarcerated?

  64. 64.

    Brachiator

    I’ve been hearing a lot that Manafort won’t talk because he knows he’ll get pardoned

    Every day, the Trump administration looks more and more like an organized crime family. Wise guys refuse to talk because they know that they will be taken care of.

    But Trump doesn’t just have cops and judges in his pocket. He’s got the power to pardon. It’s good to be the king.

  65. 65.

    Barbara

    The thing about pardoning Manafort and Gates is that the charges against them are financial charges that are actually pretty easy to understand. They earned huge amounts of money from helping foreign, mostly authoritarian governments, and never paid taxes on it, but instead obtained mortgages, sometimes using lies and fraud, that allowed them to live high on the hog without paying taxes. No better than your garden variety drug dealer. So they don’t pay taxes and they lied to banks to evade taxes and get sweetheart deals on mortgages. Those aren’t political crimes, and it would be hard to claim that they are politicized. So Trump would be pardoning them for tax fraud. Why would he do that unless he needed something in return from them? Mueller is very, very smart.

  66. 66.

    Barbara

    @mike in dc: I would go further. The indictment contained information that suggests Manafort’s family members could face their own criminal jeopardy for assisting him. Going after family members is not your first option as a prosecutor in the world of organized crime, but it’s an option you never take off the table. I hope his son-in-law doesn’t mind having a felony conviction or maybe even going to jail to support the family enterprise.

  67. 67.

    FlyingToaster

    @mike in dc:

    There’s also the risk of extradition to Ukraine, where they probably would kill him after trial.

    From what I hear, they’ll have already tried him and will meet Manafort on the Boryspil tarmac with a firing squad.

  68. 68.

    Anonymous at Work

    @Lapassionara: Good metaphor but there was a narrow path between them. The reason Mueller started teh charges was, in part, to get Trump to act first. If Trump pardons, Trump’ll face backlash and then the NY AG indicts. If Trump doesn’t pardon, the other people Mueller is trying to flip suddenly realize that Trump doesn’t have their back (scorpions for everyone) and proceed to cut deals.

  72. 72.

    mike in dc

    @Brachiator: That’s why I think, assuming the Dems flip the House, they should immediately commence an impeachment inquiry within the Judiciary Committee, and in so doing pass a resolution–a sense of the House–that Mueller’s investigation is part of the impeachment inquiry. It immediately puts pardons off limits for all subjects of Mueller’s inquiry and indictments–including Trump himself. It effectively neuters the president and hastens his political demise.

  74. 74.

    Bill Arnold

    @rikyrah:

    Sam Clovis, Trump’s nominee for USDA’s top scientist, confirms he has no hard science credentials

    Going through pdf folders, I’ve read 20+ peer-reviewed papers on/directly-related-to agriculture in the last year. (Pure curiosity, not work-related in any way.) And there are a few acres of corn and cabbages growing within 1000 meters of my house. Adequate credentials? (No. Don’t even know the shape/topology of my ignorance. Notably, ag research is quite full of hidden industry influence, that is near-impossible to detect without expertise.)
    Meanwhile, Clovis (“former Iowa talk radio host and political science professor”) argues

    that his time teaching and running for political office in the Hawkeye State steeped him in the field of agriculture.

    Lazy lazy lazy lazy.
    (Have only read maybe 10 political science papers recently (curiosity), unless one also counts papers on propaganda (computational and otherwise) (curiosity).)

  75. 75.

    acallidryas

    @Roger Moore:

    Basically, this. I’ve never thought the problem with flipping Manafort is the potential pardon. The problem with flipping Manafort is can Mueller *really* be scarier than all the people he owes money and favors to in Putin’s orbit.

  76. 76.

    Spaniel

    @Elizabelle:

    “Yup. Perfect allies,” Manafort Shand agreed. “Trump probably has more morals than my dad. Which is really just saying something about my dad. My dad is a psycho!!!”

    Manafort Shand also claimed that her father’s role in Trump’s campaign was generally much greater than the public was led to believe and that Manafort was responsible for choosing Mike Pence as Trump’s vice president and for hiring Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon.

    Manafort Shand told sister Jessica Manafort that their father “was brought on to be convention manager, but really it was always to run s–t.”

  77. 77.

    PJ

    @rumpole: @Yarrow: Moreover, Manafort is charged with specific acts of money laundering in New York, including purchasing residential property in the city through LLCs (funded presumably by Russian money) which he then used as leverage to take out loans worth more than the value of the property.

  78. 78.

    TenguPhule

    @mike in dc:

    There’s also the risk of extradition to Ukraine, where they probably would kill him after trial.

    FTFY.

    Let’s be honest, he wouldn’t live long enough to stand trial there.

    And if he refuses to cooperate, fuck him.

  79. 79.

    TenguPhule

    @acallidryas:

    The problem with flipping Manafort is can Mueller *really* be scarier than all the people he owes money and favors to in Putin’s orbit.

    All Mueller has to do is point out that Putin will believe he talked anyway. So if Mueller just lets him go, Manafort’s a dead man walking.

    Squeal or die, rat.

  80. 80.

    Just one more canuck

    @TenguPhule: “We have allowed mr. Manafort to be released on bail for compassionate reasons, however he continues to cooperate with us”

  81. 81.

    retr2327

    @ET: I don’t believe that pardoning Manafort would be an easy sell, politically. Trump backers may believe Sheriff Arpaio was doing God’s work, and wrongly convicted, but Manafort? Laundering 75M, paying 1.4 M on clothing, concealing income, etc., three passports, fake names, hidden bank accounts, etc.? It’s not a good look. Pardoning Marc Rich cost Clinton a boatload of grief, and that was on the way out the door. Pardoning this sleaze would look pretty corrupt even to the fervent Trump believers, because the charges he is facing are not political.

    I don’t think that’s an accident on Mueller’s part, either. Charging him w/ political crimes would have made a pardon much easier (“witch hunt”, etc.). More leverage this way.

  82. 82.

    retr2327

    @rumpole: I doubt that NY jurisdiction and venue would be an issue. Garden variety personal crimes tend to be tied to the location of the crime and/or the people involved, but so much of financial activity moves through NYC that bringing charges in NY is usually possible.

  84. 84.

    Tehanu

    his time teaching and running for political office in the Hawkeye State steeped him in the field of agriculture.

    Up to his neck in manure — that’s the part he left out.

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