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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2018 / You are a magnet

You are a magnet

by | 90 Comments

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This is what I immediately thought when I heard about the new tariffs on aluminum and steel:

The special election there is very close — 2 or 3 points in recent polls in a district with a +11 R Cook PVI (which means that typically a Republican wins a Congressional race by 22 points). (I’m not raising money for it anymore because the Democratic candidate opposes gun control. I understand that’s a necessary position for this district and I hope he wins nevertheless.)

My guess is Trump goes nuts on the trade war to try to shore up his position with some blue collar workers and that the entire GOP apparatus decides they’ve always hated free trade.

Reader Interactions

90Comments

  1. 1.

    Steeplejack

    Where is Zhena Gogolia? Rachel Maddow just proudly announced that she constructed tomorrow’s New York Times crossword puzzle (with the help of the editor, of course)!

  2. 2.

    efgoldman

    Of course asshole in chief has no idea of folllow on consequences (for anything). The market tanked immediately. Do you think he, or anyone in his circle, considered a connection? Hahahahaha

  3. 3.

    dmsilev

    @Steeplejack: Just finished that puzzle. Somewhat harder for me than the usual Friday puzzles (app said I was about thirty percent over my average time), but for the most part pretty fair in the clues etc.

  5. 5.

    Another Scott

    (I’m not raising money for it anymore because the Democratic candidate opposes gun control. I understand that’s a necessary position for this district and I hope he wins nevertheless.)

    Bad reasoning there, IMHO.

    Obama and Clinton were against gay marriage, until they weren’t.

    As I’ve ranted here before: What matters is electing Democrats so that the Democratic party is in the hands of Democratic leaders. The leaders set the rules, determine what gets voted on, determines what amendments are allowed, and all the rest. A Democrat that says he’s opposed to gun control is still one less vote for the Trumpistic party that is ruining our government.

    I put my money where my mouth is and sent Lamb $100 yesterday. It’s late and probably won’t help much, but it might.

    I understand lots of people have red lines. I do too, but the way things stand now, not voting for the Democrat in my elections – and not doing what I can to help them win important races – is one of them.

    YMMV.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  6. 6.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Three Republican groups have now invested more than $5 million in television and radio ads in the district. On Tuesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee purchased another $500,000 in paid media, bringing the total it has spent to more than $2 million, Matt Gorman, NRCC communications director, told The Daily Beast. America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC has reportedly pumped another $1 million into the race. And a spokesperson for the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely linked to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), said it has invested $2.2 million on television to date. In addition to that, CLF has an active field program with 50 full-time door knockers in the district. A Democratic source tracking the recent spending estimated, based on FEC information, that Republican groups have added at least $1.6 million to their existing purchases in the past week alone.

    These types of investments are usually saved for the highest-profile of races. Sometimes, Senate contests won’t cost this much.

    Running Scared.

  7. 7.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I’ve been wondering where he’ll be on tariffs in a week after the Mercers and whoever else goes to work on him, so we’ll have more chaos and more free-floating policy

  8. 8.

    joel hanes

    First there is a tariff
    Then there is no tariff
    Then there is

    Free-trade Jabba sheds its skin
    To find protectionist within

    First there is a tariff
    Then there is no tariff
    Then there is

  10. 10.

    Corner Stone

    There is no way Trump did this bullshit with any inkling of PA-18 in mind. That is ridiculous.

  12. 12.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    First Georgia Repukes want to F-over the largest employer in their state, and Trump Don IL going Smoot-Hawley, near peak Wingnut?? Or will it end?

  16. 16.

    Jeffro

    @Corner Stone: Well, not with PA-18 specifically…probably more a combination of “what does my drool-cup base want?” coupled with “what can I do to stir things up?” coupled with “what’ll show ’em I meanz bidness?1??1!”

    I mean, who know with this loon? He’s about to be the only Trumpov admin official left in the WH – just him, himself, and him.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    @Another Scott: Grr. “… so that the House and Senate are in the hands of Democratic leaders…” of course.

    My kingdom for a Preview!!11

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    BruceFromOhio

    My guess is Trump goes nuts on the trade war to try to shore up his position with some blue collar workers and that the entire GOP apparatus decides they’ve always hated free trade.

    Its a little tricky these days to build the shit people will buy when there is a lack of the raw materials to do so, and when investors are forced to confront the dependence on shit labor in other countries. We’re in for some reckoning here folks.

  21. 21.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Donald is incapable of planning for the future. He exists only in the moment, and when he focuses on something, he ignores everything about it that will damage him beyond an immediate payoff.

  22. 22.

    Doug R

    @Another Scott:

    What matters is electing Democrats so that the Democratic party is in the hands of Democratic leaders. The leaders set the rules, determine what gets voted on, determines what amendments are allowed, and all the rest. A Democrat that says he’s opposed to gun control is still one less vote for the Trumpistic party that is ruining our government.

    Here’s a thought-maybe he’s exaggerating his position on guns to stay out of the NRA’s sights? And maybe he’s not quite woke yet-being a Democrat means he should be reasonable.

  24. 24.

    Another Scott

    @Corner Stone: The press thinks that statements about $X of money being spent are objective, so they report the numbers. So that gets the GOP in the news. It’s a play for more press coverage, and a play to try to make Democrats think that they’re doomed.

    It’s lazy reporting, but it’s easy so that’s why reporters like it.

    As you say, money isn’t votes.

    AFAIK, few if any of the races since 1/20/2017 have been decided by money spent on TV ads.

    Candidates need enough money to run a decent campaign, but more than that doesn’t help in that particular race.

    Eyes on the prize.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    Doug!

    @Another Scott:

    I’m still giving him money too but I know not everyone will and so I’m not putting up the thermometer. Emotions are running high about this and I want to be respectful.

  26. 26.

    Doug R

    From what I can gather, 16% of the steel the USA imports comes from Canada, as does 37% of the aluminum it imports.
    trump can f*ck the f*ck off.

  27. 27.

    NotMax

    I’m not raising money for it anymore because the Democratic candidate opposes gun control.

    Nose. Cut. Spite. Face.

  28. 28.

    Doug R

    @Another Scott:

    Candidates need enough money to run a decent campaign, but more than that doesn’t help in that particular race.

    Eyes on the prize.

    You don’t have to match them dollar for dollar but you do need to get their attention every once in a while to knock the piss out of what ever BS argument they’re using. Like one in five or so.

  29. 29.

    joel hanes

    IMHO, money spent on organizing is money well spent.
    Money spent on last-minute ad campaigns likely is not.

    Give early.

  30. 30.

    gbbalto

    I tried donating to Lamb but was informed that my e-mail address “does not seem to be valid.” I cannot seem to contact his campaign any other way. I wonder how many $ he has failed to raise by using vile thwartware. I am unhappy.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    @Doug!: Understood, but the phrasing was pretty bad. IMHO.

    We need to win every race we can. It’s important.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    gbbalto

    @Another Scott: Nope, same same bullshit. Thanks – At least I know that it is ActBlue’s fault. My e-mail address is the string of letters and numbers that I was originally given by Verizon and to which I had to revert after their “help” zorched my much more straightforward address. I’ll try contacting ActBlue.

  39. 39.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    I’m waiting for someone to make a court case of the tariffs. Using an obscure Cold War law, and justifying tariffs in the name of National Security? Room for judicial review there?

  41. 41.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Mr Stagger Lee:

    First Georgia Repukes want to F-over the largest employer in their state, and Trump Don IL going Smoot-Hawley, near peak Wingnut?? Or will it end?

    Georgia just removed itself from the short list for Amazon’s new headquarters. Way to go, gun nuts.

  44. 44.

    Mnemosyne

    @mad citizen:

    We were not regular viewers, but somehow we managed to watch the night he profiled our district at the time, which is still represented by Adam Schiff. Schiff was a really good sport about the whole thing, and seemed to be a fan.

  47. 47.

    Another Scott

    @gbbalto: They should respond pretty quickly. Once I accidentally, somehow, donated 10x the amount I intended. They responded pretty quickly to my cry for help! Fortunately!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    jonas

    Didn’t the GWB administration pull exactly the same shit back in 04 or 06? Slap some tariffs on steel or coal or something to get votes in Penn and Ohio? Forget if it worked or not.

  53. 53.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Norm Eisen @ NormEisen
    Whoa!: “Hicks has been secretly keeping…a ‘diary of her White House work, and her interactions w/Trump.’” If true, belongs to USG not her, must be preserved in WH under Pres Recds Act, raises issues about her handling of classified & WILL be subpoenaed.

    source appears to be the Daily Mail, so FWIW, but even if the rumor is out there, I suspect young Ms Hicks just brought another five figures of legal bills down on her well-coiffed noggin

  56. 56.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?

    My guess is Trump goes nuts on the trade war to try to shore up his position with some blue collar workers and that the entire GOP apparatus decides they’ve always hated free trade.

    In case, it hasn’t been said yet,

    “We have always been at war with Eastasia.”

    ETA:@West of the Cascades:
    Damn it, you beat me to it

  57. 57.

    efgoldman

    @Steve in the ATL:

    if the morons who run their union learn to take yes for an answer!

    What is it about modern unions and RWNJ state governments that they just love throwing jobs away? They don’t know basic arithmetic? (Wait, I know the answer). I hate giveaway tax breaks as much as the next (Dem) guy, but when companies have or offer to open a major operation (the rail car company in Snotty Walker’s Wisconsin, Delta and Amazon in GA) how can the state piss that away?

  59. 59.

    Steve in the ATL

    @efgoldman: I don’t get it. Especially with unions in such decline, I’m stunned that they fight us when we try to send new jobs to their bargaining unit.

    I often feel like they’re negotiating the 1978 contract while we are trying to adapt and survive in a rapidly changing business climate. It’s frustrating—I don’t want to see unions die.

  60. 60.

    Amir Khalid

    @jonas:
    I confess, I’m still not clear on how this tariff increase thing is supposed to work. If der Scheißgibbon raises import duties on steel from Canada, how does that steer business to American steelmakers that closed down decades ago?

  62. 62.

    mainmata

    @Steeplejack: I’ve been doing it now but it doesn’t seem to be terribly Maddowish. On the Pittsburgh suburbs by election, someone should tell Pres. Dumbass that Pittsburgh (and its eastern suburbs) haven’t been aluminum and steel producers for decades. (I grew up there.)

  64. 64.

    efgoldman

    @Steve in the ATL:

    I’m stunned that they fight us when we try to send new jobs to their bargaining unit.

    Around 1970 I was assistant manager of a trucking terminal in Albany NY (not as good as it sounds – it meant I ran the 300am shift on the open loading dock, in below zero weather). The Teamsters local business agent never left the 1930s. Fun times.

    I often feel like they’re negotiating the 1978 contract

    I’m old enough to remember the newspaper and transit strikes in NYC around that time. It was clear even to bleeding hearts like my uncle (who lived in Queens) and me that both institutions were in serious trouble. The unions wouldn’t give an inch. NYC papers started dying well before the intartoobz.

  66. 66.

    Corner Stone

    @Steve in the ATL:

    It’s frustrating—I don’t want to see unions die.

    You personally may not, because that’s how you make your money. But your employers do. Because then they can leverage all against all and suppress wages as they fire at will for no cause.
    90% of all the productivity gains over the last 30+ years have gone to C-level executives and institutional investors. The people fighting to get/keep a living wage for their members have had to tier off newcomers because the companies refuse to share any profits with them. Don’t act like it’s a beneficial move to send new jobs to some bargaining unit. They are paid less well, they hate paying dues because they have no understanding of what has been fought for in their names and your employers divide and conquer to keep turmoil and strife relevant.

  67. 67.

    Corner Stone

    There *will* be a revolution in this country again, shortly. It will be against the Pinkerton’s and people that deny a person who works for a living an actual wage. Automation is eating jobs right up the chain, and pretty soon AI will replace some high paying white collar jobs. Status quo will end, but it will not end well.

  68. 68.

    Steve in the ATL

    @efgoldman: I was talking to my seat mate on the flight here. He was a former union electrician turned project manager. His company had to spend almost $2M to build a room for a temporary generator because the outdoor place where it was located was the union steward’s preferred parking spot. That’s the type of shit that has to stop. Go back to useful things like getting us weekends off.

  71. 71.

    Corner Stone

    @Steve in the ATL: I’ve met or read a lot of these “guys”. They almost never tell the truth or exist in the real world. There’s one who used to do contract electrical work for schools in CA. He complained all the time about how bad all the union restrictions were. But guess what? He now owns a nursery in Hawaii. Guess that gig didn’t work out too bad for him.

  72. 72.

    mainmata

    @Amir Khalid: I’m not a trade expert but I don’t think the tariff can be made to apply to Canada (or Mexico) because of NAFTA. You know, that “free trade” agreement? To the extent it applies to other countries, it just makes manufacturing costs here that much more expensive and depending upon the steel/aluminum component of the final end product may make a particular American manufacturer slightly or significantly less competitive.

    But stupid is as stupid does.

  73. 73.

    efgoldman

    @Steve in the ATL:

    Universal basic income. Now.

    Sure.
    Se the Dems take both houses and the WH. And it manages to get thru the courts. And the assholes will vote 6482376r75993665 times to repeal it, as they did with the ACA. And then one day they get power again, and please gaia, they’re not completely buckfuck crazy this time (I am not hopeful). Here comes repeal and replace, or whatever.
    These are the wackos who are trying to steal two sacrosanct programs, social security and medicare.

  75. 75.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Corner Stone:

    You personally may not, because that’s how you make your money.

    No, I can make money doing other things, such as employment law. I hate the power imbalance and I hate that almost all the gains have gone to the C-suite.

    The jobs we sent to this bargaining unit were good jobs that paid the same as the current ones were making. Fighting us on it was a stupid, stupid power play by a union exec. The level below her knew that and begged her to stop but she wouldn’t. They realized that we are not going to be inclined to send any more jobs to them ever again. But her ego was more important than the health and success of her union and her members. That’s the kind of shit that makes people hate unions. Now she’s talking strike and I actually laughed at her. Her members will never agree to strike because (1) there is no reason to and (2) they know damn well we will just replace them.

  76. 76.

    Steve in the ATL

    @efgoldman: I’m not saying it can be done now, only that it needs to be! Along with Medicare for all, repeal of the second amendment, hanging for treason of the entire republican leadership, etc.

  78. 78.

    Corner Stone

    @Steve in the ATL:

    The jobs we sent to this bargaining unit were good jobs that paid the same as the current ones were making. Fighting us on it was a stupid, stupid power play by a union exec. The level below her knew that and begged her to stop but she wouldn’t. They realized that we are not going to be inclined to send any more jobs to them ever again. But her ego was more important than the health and success of her union and her members. That’s the kind of shit that makes people hate unions. Now she’s talking strike and I actually laughed at her. Her members will never agree to strike because (1) there is no reason to and (2) they know damn well we will just replace them.

    I have seen this scenario play out a hundred times. The new jobs never pay what the current tiers pay. The union negotiators *generally* understand the imbalance of power and don’t let ego get in the way. That’s not universal but it’s a majority. There is something in the negotiations that kills future bargaining power or strength of unity. Agree today to only fight a rear guard action next time.
    People hate unions because they have been whitewashed into a position where they do not understand what a union is or does for them. There is a reason for that. I wonder what it is?

  79. 79.

    tobie

    The Washington Post has a somewhat confusing story up about the Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s handling of all things Clinton. Evidently IG Horowitz is set to release a report that will say that Andrew McCabe improperly disclosed info regarding the FBI’s investigation of the Clinton Foundation in Oct 2016 and that he misled investigators about what he was doing, though even the Post doesn’t know how he misled them and the only hint they give is that he pushed back against the Obama Justice Dept’s questions about why the FBI was investigating the Clinton Foundation. Clouds of suspicion, vague reporting, etc….this is all so familiar.

  80. 80.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Corner Stone: as noted supra, these jobs pay exactly what the current jobs pay. Same type of work, same working conditions. No concessions of any kind. It was literally (as in the actual meaning of literally) 100% beneficial for this union.

  83. 83.

    efgoldman

    @Steve in the ATL:

    these jobs pay exactly what the current jobs pay.

    You won’t convince him. He doesn’t believe anything any management negotiator says.
    If this were a jury trial, he’d be the guy what hangs it.

  85. 85.

    tobie

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Historians years from now will wonder at the hours spent on such a trivial story when the country was attacked by a hostile power that installed its own puppet. But even the Clinton Foundation must be investigated to death. Fuck Horowitz for buckling under the pressure. I’m so sick of goody-two-shoes Democrats right now. The fate of the Republic hangs in the balance and these weak-kneed figures just want to show how much they stand for principle by stabbing their own.

    Okay…got that off my chest.

  86. 86.

    Ruckus

    @Amir Khalid:
    You guys may be seeing this all wrong. Conservatives are against FREE trade. Someone somewhere has to pay to trade. The other guys, our own citizens, makes no difference, someone must pay to trade. Someone is making money off a trade and they aren’t getting a cut? Tariff! It isn’t a TAX on their income so it’s OK.
    Notice that there are a number of issues and problems if one looks casually at things this way, that long term the effects are quite often opposite of the desired effect……..But then conservatives rarely look forward, after all looking at the good old days, wearing shit covered glasses from having their heads up their asses is part of their modus operandi.

  87. 87.

    Another Scott

    @Another Scott: Note added in proof – TheHill:

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is moving to banking reform legislation — not gun control or other responses to the high school shooting in Florida — next week in the Senate.

    McConnell has filed a motion to have a procedural vote Tuesday on legislation sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho). After that, McConnell hopes to move to legislation addressing sex trafficking, according to GOP sources.

    Legislation addressing the Florida high school shooting, the subject of contentious conversations between President Trump and GOP lawmakers at a White House meeting televised live on cable news Wednesday, will wait.

    […]

    He’s hoping that the press will get distracted by some new Trump outrage so that they won’t have to vote on any gun legislation. And since he’s the Majority Leader, he determines what the Senate considers.

    We have to vote them out, even if that means voting for Democrats that we disagree with on some important issues.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  88. 88.

    Stan

    @mainmata:

    On the Pittsburgh suburbs by election, someone should tell Pres. Dumbass that Pittsburgh (and its eastern suburbs) haven’t been aluminum and steel producers for decades. (I grew up there.)

    That’s right, and….they don’t want to become steel producers again! That seems very clear every time I’m in the burgh.

  89. 89.

    Matt

    his base in places like western PA wants to see more on trade

    Administration hoping “moron trade policy” is close enough.

  90. 90.

    Aleta

    @Aleta: A correction to the 90% number (above) I’d seen or misremembered.

    Seen today:

    Scott Lincicome
    ‏@scottlincicome

    Scott Lincicome (He was responding to T’s tweet )
    The US steel industry produced 90 million tons of steel last year (up 5%) and had 72.5% of the US market.

    tim mullaney
    ‏@timmullaney
    Replying to @scottlincicome
    and 3.1% unemployment. BTW, only 39K steel jobs are in production. the industry’s clerks, truck drivers and finance types could work in any industry.

    Location of numbers and charts:
    Primary Metal Manufacturing:. The site includes “Employment by Occupation.”

    At the link, I noticed that the Oct 17 unemployment rate (for this sector or whatever it’s called) was 1.7%. In Jan 18 it was 3.1%.

    My impression is that campaigning Rs like to use numbers like they do Bible verses — as absolute truths, if the ones they pick can be used to support their greed. I don’t know if a difference in the rate of <1.5 is significant at all. But I wonder if they're afraid of this (the 1.7 going to 3.1) and want to look like they are turning things around. Or they hope by hook or by crook to put out a different number by summer/fall.

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