Breaking (good) news:
It looks like the window for @TomSteyer to make the September debate has closed. He got 0% in a new Quinnipiac national poll, the last poll we know about before qualification closes today. @TulsiGabbard, who was looking for two polls, got 1% https://t.co/J8LzZ1gTLT
— Zach Montellaro (@ZachMontellaro) August 28, 2019
So Houston will be just one night with 10 candidates — still too many, IMO, but less of a goat rodeo for sure.
***********
Earlier, this was a 12-hour wonder:
New national Monmouth poll:
Sanders: 20% (+6)
Warren: 20% (+5)
Biden: 19% (-13)!
Harris: 8% (-)
Booker: 4% (+2)
Buttigieg: 4% (-1)
Yang: 3% (+1)
Castro: 2% (+2)
O’Rourke: 2% (-1)
Williamson: 2% (+1)— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 26, 2019
… and there was much rejoicing from some campaigns, and much head-scratching from others, before the next Big Serious Poll:
New @MorningConsult #2020 data, based on 17,303 interviews conducted Aug. 19-25:
Biden: 33% (+2)
Sanders: 20%
Warren: 15%
Harris: 8% (-1)
Buttigieg: 5%
O'Rourke: 3%
Booker: 3%
Yang: 2%https://t.co/7agyWo2SxW— Cameron Easley (@cameron_easley) August 27, 2019
Next day, related information…
You can see Warren overtake Biden in net fav:https://t.co/8lR62WbCev pic.twitter.com/Pk0GN4RBje
— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) August 27, 2019
Seems like a good time to re-up our guide to following 2020 primary polls:https://t.co/LSFD3VutYe
— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) August 26, 2019
… People who try to discredit early primary polls by pointing out that, say, Jeb Bush led early polls of the GOP field in 2016 are being disingenuous. Should these polls be treated with caution? Sure, but national primary polls conducted in the calendar year before the election are actually somewhat predictive of who the eventual nominee will be. Earlier this year, fellow FiveThirtyEight analyst Geoffrey Skelley looked at early primary polling since 1972 and found that candidates who polled better in the months before the primaries wound up doing better in the eventual primaries. In fact, those who averaged 35 percent or higher in the polls rarely lost the nomination…
But don’t put too much faith in early primary polls (or even late ones — they have a much higher error, on average, than general-election polls). Voters’ preferences are much more fluid in primaries than they are in general elections, in large part because partisanship, a reliable cue in general elections, is removed from the equation. And voters may vacillate between the multiple candidates they like and even change their mind at the last minute, perhaps in an effort to vote tactically (i.e., vote for their second choice because that candidate has a better chance of beating a third candidate whom the voter likes less than their first or second choice).On the flip side, early general-election polls are pretty much worthless. They are hypothetical match-ups between candidates who haven’t had a chance to make their case to the public, who haven’t had to withstand tough attacks and who still aren’t on many Americans’ radar. And these polls aren’t terribly predictive of the eventual result either…
Read the whole thing, and save yourself much agita over the next many months.
Sidebar: I like Nate’s take for my preferred candidate, of course…
It's obviously not a perfect heuristic, in part because this can confuse cause and effect (i.e. losing campaigns have more to complain about), but in general the quality of a campaign is inversely proportional is how often it publicly argues/kvetches about the polls.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 27, 2019
Baud
Good news about having one debate night.
Baud
Sanders is still too high, especially vis-a-vis Warren.
Nate’s explanation of early primary polls is worthless.
Quinerly
I’m coming around to Liz. I maybe leaving Kamala.
And I was so excited about Kamala in the beginning. So if it is Liz Warren, who should she pick for her running mate? I really like Sherrod Brown.
JR
@Quinerly: I also moved from Kamala; nothing against her but she doesn’t seem to have the “go” that Warren has. Also if she drops before the primaries, it’s our best chance at making it a two horse race early (sans Bernie).
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Quinerly: I like Brown too, but any VP choice should be made while keeping the Senate in mind. I’m not sure Ohio would send a D to replace Brown.
Baud
@Quinerly:
@JR:
Warren has run a really strong campaign — the best so far. I’m interested to see how the next couple of months shakes out. Summer 2019 is too early to make decisions on candidates IMHO.
Buckeye
Ohio probably would not send a Dem back to Senate so Brown needs to stay where he is.
satby
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I’m only holding one rule for the 2020 election: should a current Senator get the D nomination, NO MORE SENATORS on the ticket. Don’t care who.
We need every Senate seat so we can take that back. Adam’s post last night spelled in all out, but I’ve thought this since the campaigns started.
Time to be strategic.
kindness
I will vote for whom ever the Democrats nominate. I can happily say that because it won’t be Tulsi or Wilmer. BernieBros will reprise their 2016 henchmen ways though. They already have.
Raven
Brexit shock as UK PM asks Queen to suspend Parliament
Quinerly
@Baud: unrelated, but here’s a non pay wall link on the WaPo article mentioned earlier: “President Trump is so eager to deliver on his 2016 campaign promise of a border wall that he’s told officials he will pardon them if they have to break the law in order to get it constructed by election day, The Washington Post reported.”
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-wall-election-day-officials-break-law
dmsilev
@Raven: In other, totally unrelated, news, Boris Johnson has gone missing and the Queen’s corgis are looking suspiciously well fed.
JMG
As a Massachusetts resident, I am supporting Warren on the favorite daughter principle. Just kidding, I would support her if I lived in Idaho. But she is a very talented pol who understands how government works. So I’m on her side.
PS: I was born and raised in Delaware. In the first election I was old enough to vote, I voted for Joe Biden. Everyone loves him in my former teeny state, even my backstage Republican politics lawyer brother who still lives there. Being liked is a pretty primal political skill.
frosty
@Quinerly: I’m coming around to Liz too. Age certainly isn’t slowing her down … ( 5 1/2 hours of selfies???)
But no to Sherrod Brown. We can’t afford to lose a single D senator.
Mary G
Julian Castro is my current fave for VP. He’s really impressed me and he’s not in office right now.
Quinerly
Trump is all in on Bedbug Brett:
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-bedbugs-brett-stephens-new-york-times
I can’t believe I’m typing this about a POTUS.
ThresherK
Ages ago I saved a JPG from the Washington Monthly about how Margin of Error works. More specifically, how “within the margin of error!” is a meaningless phrase, based on how people use it.
Time for me to try and find that, unless someone has it or the equivalent somewhere.
hueyplong
@Quinerly: WTlivingF?
Sundown would not have found any previous president unimpeached.
I know, daily comment, but JFC.
Quinerly
@Mary G: love Castro. He would be my dream choice for VP, but I’m skittish about a Woman/Hispanic ticket. Might be a bridge too far for some voters. Just not so sure.
Jeffro
Um, per the Post, it looks like trumpov is asking his staffers to seize whatever property is necessary and confiscate/divert whatever funds are necessary in order to build his wall (and therefore aid his re-election) – and he’s willing to offer them pardons if they break the law doing so. That is an impeachment trifecta, right there.
We’re here, America. It’s time, GOP. The man absolutely must go, today.
Quinerly
@hueyplong: but that was yesterday. He’s back to tweeting about bedbugs today, so all is well.
Amir Khalid
@Quinerly:
I don’t see the link. Did you remember to include it?I’m wondering, how can Trump legally order people to break the law, or induce illegal conduct by promising pardons?
ThresherK
@ThresherK: Breaking news! I found the article but the graph is lost to the intertubes of history.
Margin of error, by Kevin Drum
raven
@dmsilev: unrelated to what?
rikyrah
Still in for Harris. Warren has yet to show how she will win in those Southern primaries.
Amir Khalid
@Quinerly:
I think there needs to be a drawing of Bret Stephens in comic-book hero tights: The Bedbug!
Betty Cracker
I’m reverting back to my pre-Obama Eeyore Democrat form, so I’m going to assume Biden will win the primary, and I will vote for him in the general with a heavier than usual sigh.
Quinerly
@Amir Khalid: someone was talking about that earlier. He can do battle with “The Tick.”
hueyplong
@rikyrah: Me too (about Harris). Pollsters don’t call me (except for push polling GOPers).
Quinerly
@Amir Khalid: sorry. Had to go back to edit. As usual, I’m on my phone. BJ isn’t worth firing up the laptop at 5 AM? and Kindle is two floors down.
Quinerly
@Amir Khalid: here’s a well written NY Magazine piece on it also:nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trump-pardon-wall-border-crimes-impeachment.html
Quinerly
Let us all celebrate the 5 year anniversary of Obama wearing a tan suit, while our current pres tweets about bedbugs, steals land and funds, pardons people who help him, and builds an illegal wall.
esquire.com/style/a22862882/obama-tan-suit-anniversary/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBESQ&utm_medium…
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@hueyplong: Me three – and it is not yet September – Harris can still take off and have a real shot. But I’m glad to see Warren doing well. I really want to nominate a strong female candidate for President in 2020!
In the end, though, eyes on the prize. We must take back the White House, and we can do so with any of our fine Democratic front runners! (Probably)
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: It’s unrelated to me anyway.
LC
@ThresherK:
This McGill link seems to have a version of the table missing from Drum’s old article.
cs.mcgill.ca/~rwest/wikispeedia/wpcd/wp/m/Margin_of_error.htm
Ceci n est pas mon nym
The ad software is showing me ads for bedbug exterminators. It’s going to be an interesting couple of years in the sidebar ads, isn’t it?
Spanky
@Raven:
Millions cheer as Freddie Mercury tells Boris to stuff it.
Chyron HR
@Raven:
I suppose it’s too much to hope that she responds, “Stop destroying MY country, you little toads.”
Spanky
@Amir Khalid:
HA! HA! That is soooo old fashioned! No dictator obeys laws, and here’s why: They know that anyone and everyone whose job it is to find and prosecute lawbreakers works for them, and if they so much as timidly raise their hand, FFFFFT! out they go. In more advanced dictatorships, of course, “out” here would mean disappearing, possibly along with their entire family. Give Trump time! He can get there if given the time.
Raoul
@satby: I think from a Senate composition standpoint, I’d definitely agree. I’d also say that from a governing and (dare I say it) swamp-y standpoint, I’d not want two senators together on the ticket.
So … Warren / Buttigeig! (Of course, the running mate could be someone who hasn’t been in this 20-dimensional cluster). And, of course I’ll vote for whichever pair of Dems our slightly whack process selects.
If, somehow, Sanders tops the ticket (and this goes for Biden as well, but will a little less lemon-pucker) it will be critical that the VP choice be an inspired and inspiring one.
schrodingers_cat
@hueyplong: @rikyrah: Me three. Has she said anything about Kashmir.
SFAW
@Chyron HR:
Screw that. I’m hoping she gets the Royal Guard (or whatever), points to Obvious Russian Asset Johnson, and yells “Off with his head!”
ETA: However, it IS too much to hope for that she do the same to/for Nigel Farage.
Raoul
@Raven: Reading the NYT about this. Boris is a cluster-fucker. As we knew he would be. The two leading anglophone nations have evil clowns as their heads. It sucks balls.
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
Bill Barr and Moscow Mitch, natcherly.
Sab
I want a goat rodeo, but one without politics. Only if the goats want it. They might not, if it interferes with eating.
schrodingers_cat
@Raven: Its actually not that shocking. That’s how parliamentary democracies work. Its politically astute. BJ has not been elected PM so he has no mandate to do the unpopular things that Brexit will require. If Tories win a majority he can rightfully claim that the will of the people is behind him. Its also an opportunity for the opposition to get its act together and show the Tories the door. I don’t know enough about British politics to know who will prevail in the upcoming elections.
The Moar You Know
@Raven: I suspect Boris, not being stupid, has been watching Mitch McConnell and is about to abandon a whole shitload of “rules” (which, like ours, are traditions and not enforceable laws) and just flex raw power. He’s doing it on much thinner margins, but the Brits haven’t dealt with anyone like that before and like Moscow Mitch, I suspect he’ll be very successful.
The Queen’s role in this, as I understand it, is ceremonial. If she says “no” I’m not sure she can make that stick. Would like some input from a Brit, preferably one with a legal background.
schrodingers_cat
@The Moar You Know: The Queen cannot say no. She has said yes. She has to do what the PM wants.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
I don’t doubt you at all, but if that’s the case, what’s the damn point of asking in the first place? The ceremonial/ritualistic fig leaf?
Those are probably rhetorical questions, but I guess I thought they had their shit together a little more. Although, prior to November, 2016, I thought the US had it’s shit together a little more, so …
Van Buren
@Raoul: Reminds one of the 80s.
Betty Cracker
@Sab: There’s a farm down the road from us that sells fainting goats. They put up a sign every time there’s a new batch of baby fainting goats to sell. Unfortunately, the fainting goats can’t be seen from the road. My daughter and I have talked about posing as possible buyers just so we can see them. A fainting goat rodeo would be awesome!
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: This strikes me as incompatible with democratic values, given that it’s sole purpose is to force a run up against a deadline that will do irreversible damage to the country,and prevent the legislative body from having any say in the outcome.
germy
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: So she can pull the PM back from the brink if he is going to do something stupid, she can advise but not dictate terms.
schrodingers_cat
@Eolirin: Can the parliament be disbanded without calling for fresh elections? Is the opposition asleep? Why isn’t a no-confidence motion being filed. What is the British Bernie, Corbyn up to?
Betty Cracker
Trump on Twitter about a half hour ago:
LMAO! He’s mad because they employ Donna Brazile and Juan Williams and allow Shep Smith to inject an occasional note of truth in an otherwise unending stream of Trump-humping bullshit.
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: It isn’t being disbanded. It’s being suspended. That is, he’s forcing them to stay out of session until the 14th of October. They have until September 10th to do anything about it.
ThresherK
@LC: Aha! Thanx for the link. I’ve saved the table.
Frankensteinbeck
I said I would support whoever black women want, and I stick to that. If they stay with Biden, I will support Biden. It’s early and I’m giving them a chance to change their minds because I like Warren and Harris, but one specific group of people has been right about everything and done the work to support those positions for decades. I kinda feel I owe them, both personally and as a white man.
schrodingers_cat
@Eolirin: What does suspended mean?
Gin & Tonic
@Betty Cracker: OANN here we come!
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: They’re, in US terms, on a scheduled recess after the 10th of September. He’s extended the length of that recess until the 14th of October.
sdhays
@Betty Cracker: Don’t worry, Betty. He assures us he’s “not going nuts”.
The thing about Biden’s support is that he’s running to be the “don’t make me choose” candidate. A lot of people don’t want to think about choosing the best Democratic candidate, they just want to pick someone safe who will beat Dump without having to think much about it. And there’s nothing wrong with wanting that, but the problem is the only person who actually checks that box is Obama and he can’t run. Biden is not Obama, even if he was a good VP.
Biden is not a “safe” choice, and I think his campaign is proving that. I just hope he has plenty of time to fully spin out before we accidentally get saddled with him.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@germy: Heh – that’s funny. I wonder what Kamala’s campaign’s reaction would be… Might be more open to it? Maybe not.
Sister Golden Bear
@SFAW: So she can christen the submarine made of cheese?
catclub
@Mary G:
I was thinking Beto O for the ‘make em fight for texas’ reason. Also not in office.
sdhays
@schrodingers_cat: Corbyn wants to have a No Confidence vote, but the Lib Dems and Tory rebels would rather burn the country down than see Corbyn as PM, even if it’s temporary.
catclub
@schrodingers_cat: Not enough ‘r’s in the scrabble drawer for prorogued.
schrodingers_cat
@Eolirin: Ok thanks got it. @sdhays: So the opposition is divided.
Robert Sneddon
@Eolirin: The normal deal is that Parliament sits for a short session after the summer break and the Party conferences, usually to clean up problems and deal with anything exceptional that’s happened since it went on its holidays and then it goes into recess for a couple of weeks before the Queen’s Speech in early November which is when the Government lays out its plans for the forthcoming legislative session. Having Parliament sit in mid-October is out of the ordinary. That looks to me to be a pressure play by Boris & co. leaving Parliament on the hook for whatever happens after Brexit two weeks later while giving the trapped rats an escape route i.e. sign up to whatever is put in front of them by the Government or else. I expect there’s going to be a lot of arm-twisting going on in the corridors of power.
I’m not sure, there are a lot of Tory party MPs who will feel aggrieved by the Government’s actions but they may still vote Party over country when it comes to the inevitable vote of no confidence. Interesting times.
Eolirin
@sdhays: I think if there’s one thing Obama definitively proved it’s the value of a hyper competent ground game in the primaries. I suspect that if Warren manages that correctly, she will do very well in the early states and the electability concerns will go away.
I don’t think the ground games out of the Biden or Sanders camps are going to be able to compete. Once we’re down to just two or three viable candidates, if Warren is in it and can run an Obama level campaign, and all signs point toward her being able to do that, she’s going to start sweeping the field.
catclub
@Eolirin: Like they say, The real crime is what is legal. IN this case, repurposing a standard part of the political calendar to do an end run around parliament.
between that and Farage putting maximum pressure ( threatening to run in Tory boroughs – which would catastrophically split the conservative vote) on Johnson to make the no deal Brexit happen- UK politics certainly seems more creative lately.
Raoul
Breaking news. Georgia will have BOTH senate seats up in 2020.
I gather he has Parkinson’s. Which is sad. I’m sure he’s glad to have lifetime medical coverage as a retiring senator.
catclub
@sdhays: We will do whatever is necessary to stop Brexit….. but not that.
oy
Betty Cracker
Beto just kicked a Breitbart “reporter” out of a campaign event, drawing a rebuke from the NYT and rising in my estimation.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks for this, AL. Data > punditry 95% of the time (margin of error 1% since I’ve observed so many data points).
@Baud:
Why? I honestly don’t get this.
schrodingers_cat
@Raoul: Rats leaving the sinking ship or is it something else.
Major Major Major Major
@LC: oh, this is fantastic, thanks!
Betty Cracker
Wow, Georgia US Sen. Isakson just announced he’s resigning at the end of 2019 due to health reasons. Abramson? Yates?
ETA: [Emily Latilla voice] Never mind!
Marcopolo
So I occasionally wonder what Ta-Niehisi Coates is up to nowadays. Apparently he has been writing a novel called The Water Dancer. Publication date of 9/24/2019.
From the description:
The slave experience & magical realism. I’m in.
Raoul
@Van Buren: I was going to make a joke about the Sex Pistols making a comeback (yeah, I know, Sid isn’t available). But then I looked him up and I was kind of shocked to see that he died in ’79. I think of them as early 80s, but I was a kid just discovering — and loving — punk rock as Reagan and Thatcher started entering my awareness.
Another Scott
@ThresherK: No graph but the Wayback Machine has the table.
Another web page that covers the same thing, with a graph, is here.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Raoul
@Marcopolo: The New Yorker published a short story based on this in their fiction issue recently. It was good.
Another Scott
@Robert Sneddon: As I posted downstairs…:
@Tony Jay: The BBC radio show on our local NPR station this morning was devoting a lot of time to BoJo’s machinations (as expected). One of the reporters said that polling (dunno how recent) indicates that a majority of the country still favors Brexit when asked in the abstract, but he mumbled something about when asked about the details (e.g. even with no Brexit agreement?) the public was less in favor.
Is this really the case?? After 3+ years of this stuff, does the country still want to go over that cliff??
If so, I’m flabbergasted. :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
topclimber
@Raoul: Sorry to single you out but blame it on something I have been meaning to say for some time.
I love all the vp tradeoff/speculation but fundamentally doesn’t the vp have to be of Presidential caliber? Mayor Pete is at least one statewide election or meaningful cabinet position away at this point. You can’t give the borderline misogynists a chance to vote down a Warren or Harris because their running mate is (to be polite) resume challenged.
Which leads to the second thought. I don’t think Biden is the guy we need, with the caveat that we need anybody but Trump, except maybe as a 5-star Secretary of State. But he has good political instincts. His idea to run with Stacey Abrams was great. Warren should steal it. Abrams give her what Harris does only more so. The only one I can think of who has her experience and black appeal is Booker.
Probably there are upwards of 20 Juicers with nitpicks about the expanded comments, but remember the key point: Our vp has to be ready for prime time. (Curse my negatory brain but I can’t forget that Liz would be in her late 70s at end term, and Biden pushing 80).
Pete for Press Secretary!
Raoul
Further to the Georgia situation, I love this!
sdhays
@Eolirin: That’s my feeling as well. Warren has exceeded my expectations on the organization front. I think Harris is focusing on a strong ground game as well, but we’re not seeing the strength in the polls that I was expecting. Coasting to victory on campaigns past (which is a major component of the Biden campaign) terrifies me as a general election strategy.
Major Major Major Major
@topclimber:
I don’t think he’d want or excel at that job. Give it to Beto.
I also think Buttigieg is a top-tier VP candidate for a potential Warren nomination. And I think he is of presidential caliber. He has good instincts, would surround himself with the right people, and seems like the sort to listen to them. And of course you learn a thing or two as VP.
Gin & Tonic
@topclimber:
Like Spiro Agnew? Dan Quayle?
topclimber
Of course now I see your later comment and looks like Abrams may be running for the Senate.
Doesn’t change my argument for a vp who is ready for prime time.
Gravenstone
@Quinerly: No! Sorry, but poaching Brown basically dooms Ohio to a Republican replacement.
Raoul
@topclimber: My Buttigeig fandom is quite flexible. My bias is towards temperament and intellect for a Veep, and I think he has those. I know this is measuring by a dumb yardstick, but Mayor Pete could run circles around Dan Quayle if we cold timetravel him to a debate stage at age 42 to face Pete. Eight years in the Senate didn’t seam to ‘season’ him much at all.
Anyway, I’d be happy with Pete in the cabinet (not Press Sec, tho). Hell, at this point I’d be happy with Pete running a freakin’ hedge fund and a Booker / Castro administration. Whatever, as long as it isn’t an “R” in the WH (or Tulsi, which would be R for Russia).
catclub
@Another Scott:
probably, or very evenly divided – which should not be the basis for such a big change in the status quo. Cameron gets a lot of blame from me for the ham-handed setup of the first referendum.
Democracy is the theory that the people know what they want, and should get it, good and hard. — HL Mencken
trollhattan
@Mary G: @Quinerly:
I think those are the up and downsides of a Castro VP pick, in a nutshell.
He’s a very dynamic speaker, which never hurts on the long, long campaign trail, and I suspect they’d make a remarkably energetic pairing in joint appearances, which could ameliorate questions about her age.
I’d love Abrams but think a 2X woman ticket is a bridge much too far. Misogyny is a big reason we have a President Trump.
FlipYrWhig
@Major Major Major Major: Buttigieg seems to me more like a chief of staff.
Another Scott
@Baud: +1. It’s far too early to lock one’s self into a particular candidate.
Nancy at WaMo:
I like Warren a lot and I honestly haven’t looked into Kamala very closely yet. I’ve donated to both campaigns (and to Castro) because I want them sticking around a while. But I’m not all-in on anyone yet.
It’s still very early, and a lot is going to happen before the first votes are cast.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gravenstone
@Amir Khalid: Narrator: He can’t
topclimber
@Gin & Tonic: Agnew ran with Nixon (love him or hate him few doubted his Presidential bona fides). Likewise with Bush I. Are you confident that any of our Presidential candidates besides Biden can make that claim? Even Biden has an age problem that will make some people want to have a good backup.
When it is quite likely we will nominate a woman for President and thus have to contend with misognistic negativity, why would you burden her with a weak backup? Unless you think a white male, however lacking in meaningful executive or foreign policy experience, certifies his female running mate?
Raoul
@FlipYrWhig: That’s actually in interesting pick. But it’d be the end of his public electoral rise. I don’t think anyone could really go from COS to potus, and I think Pete may really want to be potus in 2028.
satby
@FlipYrWhig: I think he’d be excellent as the head of Interior or Veterans Affairs. He seems to strive for excellence in whatever he does. That would be a nice change wherever he lands.
FlipYrWhig
IMHO part of the reason why Obama picked Biden was that if he picked Hillary Clinton it would be expected that she would succeed him, and (also IMHO) at the time he wasn’t sure about that, whereas by picking Biden he could kick the can down the road on succession. So my concern with a young VP is that it had better be someone acceptable to different parts of the Democratic coalition, because that person will zip to the top of the list of future presidential candidates (unless she/he/they is/are a Quayle-level disaster). I think this is part of why the “heir apparent” strategy hasn’t been used that much lately: too much Sturm und Drang about setting up a future frontrunner.
Marcopolo
@sdhays: @Eolirin: When I am trying to choose who to support in a primary, how well a candidate runs their campaign is right up there with policies, ability to connect with voters… Being able to build and run an effective presidential campaign is synonymous for me with having the ability to run the federal government. Presidential campaigns are big unwieldy things with lots of moving parts. You have to hire a lot of good, talented people to do tough time constrained work and trust them to do it well. When Obama first announced his presidential run there were a lot of folks who carped about his “lack of experience.” I was reassured by how well he built and ran his campaign–which was the best presidential campaign, hands down, I have ever worked for. Hillary’s 2016 campaign, which I also volunteered for, wasn’t, honestly, all that great.
Right now, all the indications are that Warren is accomplishing a feat similar to Obama’s in 2020. I guess we will see if that propels her all the way.
Raoul
@trollhattan: I’m up for a Draft Stacy for Georgia Senator 2020 effort. I think she’d kick butt, and with both seats up, the landscape improves a lot for her.
topclimber
@Raoul: I see many roles for Buttigeig. Just threw out Press Secretary because he is so damn articulate.
satby
@Raoul: agree.
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Far too many people on our side seem to want the primaries to be over. IMO there is still a lot of time, and we could still discover something about any one of the candidates that damaged them, and anyone of them could step up and shine in the course of some yet unknown event.
Raoul
@satby: I have been thinking Interior or EPA. The latter because as a rust-belter with deep policy capacity, he’d grasp regulation and have strategies for working the byzantine systems (which Trump is trying to just Bull + China Shop his way thru, but hopefully in fairly easily reversible ways come Jan 2021).
Jeffro
@Raoul: just saw that Isakson is not running, so there you have it – that’s almost an automatic pickup. Run Stacey run!
(Also saw that trumpov is complaining that “Fox News doesn’t work for us anymore – time to find a new network!” The wheels are coming off faster than expected this week
germy
@Jeffro:
satby
And my wish list for a Democratic President and Senate is that Hillary Clinton is nominated and confirmed to the Supreme Court. Karma.
Major Major Major Major
@FlipYrWhig: I’m sure Pete’s a team player, and his DNC run shows that he’d be happy to be an apparatchik, and I’m sure he’d make a very good COS… but it would squander his communication skills. I see at least cabinet for him.
glory b
The elephant in Warren’s room is her lack of traction with African American voters so far. I am okay with her, but I don’t know of anyone black who has her for their first choice.
MSM folks push the fact that she got a standing ovation at the “She Votes” thing, and was well received at the Young Leaders conference ( a black church youth thing), but the last times I saw her polling, she didn’t look good.
germy
Major Major Major Major
@Marcopolo: Obama’s skill at running his campaign was what assuaged my (perfectly legitimate!) concerns about his ability to run the country during the primary.
rikyrah
@Betty Cracker:
What is a FAINTING goat???
sdhays
@satby: I’d prefer Chelsea. Or Chelsea’s kid.
Major Major Major Major
@glory b: in the latest Q poll, Biden had 46% of black Dems, Warren and Sanders each had 10, and everybody else was in single digits. poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638
sdhays
@germy: This is why I’m pretty much in the Abrams 2028 camp. She has focus, and she’s not simply looking to attain some random higher office. She wants to fix Georgia, and she’s going to take the time to do it right.
I definitely understand why people want her to run for Senate, but we need people like her to focus on state offices too. And she’s working to help whoever does run for Senate.
germy
@sdhays: Agreed. She’s the exact opposite of people who jump into races for purely egotistical reasons, or to raise their profile. Like Walsh, for example.
MisterForkbeard
@rikyrah: Harris is still my favorite. Though she has a really hard time attracting media attention outside of specific, high-drama events. This may end up being one of those “the media is just ignoring her and that’s going to ultimately keep her from the nomination” times.
One of the things Warren appears to be doing very well is keeping herself in the news with largely positive feeling, as well as being able to drive media coverage a bit. That’s an important skill in the general.
If Harris can start to do the same, I think she’ll win. Otherwise I’d be fine with Warren, who’s demonstrating a real ability to manage the media and build a positive brand.
Kay
Up double digits from 2009, among every group of voters.
Go march in a LABOR DAY parade. Don’t forget what the holiday is about :)
Baud
@Kay:
The end of wearing white?
Sales on TVs?
Another Scott
@MisterForkbeard: ICYMI, Reuters:
Interesting.
Cheers,
Scott.
Raoul
@germy: Abrams is of course free to chose her own path (though United States Senator is not, IMO, some random office).
I think to Adam’s post last night, winning the Senate is so g-d damned critical. If she will help register and motivate GA voters so that we attain that goal, great. I think she’d be a fine Senator, and we need more women, more POC and more POC women in the Senate. If she doesn’t want to, then OK. My earlier ‘draft’ Stacey comment is meant as enthusiasm, not coercion.
Mnemosyne
@satby:
Harris can be Warren’s running mate. The odds of California sending a Republican to the US Senate are between nil and none.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: True, but I can’t think of a political or policy reason Warren would choose Harris (or vice versa for that matter, although Massachusetts is flakier than California).
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne:
I just cannot imagine this happening. Possibly-bullshit strategic considerations aside, I don’t see them getting along at all. i.e. what @Baud said.
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
I wasn’t speculating about whether they got along. I have no idea about their personal relationship.
sdhays
@Raoul: For some politicians, being Governor or Senator is pretty much the same from a career perspective. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it seems clear that Abrams isn’t like that. I think there’s a case to be made that Georgia needs the kind of intense focus on local races that Abrams is bringing. And this focus should raise all (Democratic) boats, not just hers.
Ruckus
@Major Major Major Major:
I could see Warren picking Harris as VP easily. A bit harder imagining Harris accepting. I doubt that Harris would pick Warren, That picture of the two of them meeting unexpectedly and hugging, that was all Warren, I don’t think the thought occurred to Harris. She wasn’t against it at all just obviously hadn’t gone there in her mind. Possibly makes me think that Warren wants it just a little too much, which often is for the wrong reasons. This may not be the case with Warren, I think she wants it to be better, to continue on with the democratic direction that President Obama pushed and made happen.
Brachiator
Is this equally true for Democrats and Republicans? And what does “rarely” mean?
I will be reading the 538 article later, but curious to know if these points had already been addressed.
Also, Biden is not averaging 35 points or higher.
catclub
@Brachiator: averaging 35%+.
I suspect that most of those are presidents running for re-election. Or a dominant candidate – maybe reagan in 1980.
I bet Hillary 2008 is the recent counter-example.
catclub
@Major Major Major Major:
I didn’t see BushSr and Reagan getting along, either. But there you go. How about JFK and LBJ?
Brachiator
@Baud:
I would think that either Harris or Warren would pick a VP who did not represent the “coastal elites.”
Ruckus
@Mnemosyne:
The other day some one said that CA has something like 4 1/2 million republicans. I know at least one registered republican who never votes that way but won’t change his registration. I have no idea why he won’t and it isn’t worth the asking. I wonder how many there are like him out of those registered repubs.
AliceBlue
@Jeffro: Sorry, no. As a resident of Georgia, I can tell you that Isakson’s seat is definitely not an automatic pickup. Yes, it’s an exciting development, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Georgia is going to be a tough nut to crack. Frankly, I expect Texas to go blue before Georgia does.
germy
@catclub: I saw a clip of Harris and Warren interacting at some event, and they seemed fine with each other. Lots of laughter, jokes, etc.
But I don’t see either one as VP for the other.
Betty Cracker
@rikyrah: Fainting goats are goats who faint when something scares them. I forget why, but there’s a scientific explanation for it. Here’s a YouTube compilation of the poor critters keeling over.
Brachiator
@Marcopolo:
Very Interesting insight. I appreciate little things like this much more than a lot of hack reporters punditry.
Major Major Major Major
@catclub:
He excluded those. ETA exceptions appear to be GOP 1992, Dems 1980.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: Whenever I see this idea floated with either Warren or Harris in the top spot, my question always is why would either one give up a Senate sweat to run for Veep?
Also, what would one of them bring to the ticket as VP that, for example, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Castro, Booker, or O’Rourke would not? And that is just considering only people who ran for the top job.
Major Major Major Major
@Ruckus:
Didn’t look up actual registration numbers, but Trump got just under 4.5 million votes there…
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
At least he’s open about Fox News being the GOP propaganda outlet.
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
Yep. Sounds about right. Of course, one of the largest voting blocs is Independents
ppic.org/publication/californias-independent-voters/
sukabi
@germy: Oooooo. Disinviting the “free spirited”. Not a good look for Mr. Pointy Shouty. Always knew he was a bit of a closet authoritian.
topclimber
@Omnes Omnibus: Your question is a two-parter so here goes.
1. Little incentive for Warren to be Harris vp. She is better off in the Senate or as Treasury Secy. There is meaningful incentive for Harris to run as VP, since Warren could quite likely be a one-term President. VP then gives Harris the inside position for 2024. (PS whatever else she learned from Willie Brown, playing the inside game was part of it).
2. Harris give Warren a possible boost with black voters, plus a backup who most folks will consider credible. She is certainly someone with more big time executive experience than Pete or Beto. Neither of them have credible Presidential portfolios, much as I believe them crucial to the future of the Democratic party. Booker and Gillibrand also pass the resume test, Castro not so much but at least he appeals to a key demographic.
I really need to vet Booker closely because I find myself vacillating between Warren/Harris (double dose of screw you to the misogynists) and Warren/Booker (double scoop of screw you to the misogynists and racists).
Omnes Omnibus
@topclimber: We seem to disagree as to the value to Harris of being VP. I think she could do more both for her prospects and for the country by staying in the Senate. I also think that each of the potential VP candidates that I named bring something useful to the table. Each brings something different so the nominee would need to decide what help from the VP candidate they need the most. Finally, I am really uncomfortable with the idea of using the VP nomination to send a fuck you message to anyone. Let’s win first and work on the fuck yous afterwards.
topclimber
@Omnes Omnibus: If you nominate a woman for President you are sending an FU message to the Hillary haters and their ilk. The vp side is just gravy as far as FU goes, but don’t get me wrong. I think Warren/Harris or Warren/Booker is a powerful ticket. It motivates our base and doesn’t really increase the turnout of the Trumpistas who will crawl over broken glass to stick it to the libtards no matter who we run.
Really, if they aren’t going to vote for our side because they don’t like women how much more of them do we lose because they double damn don’t like women? Or because they freak out at a biracial ticket that threatens the honor of Southern womanhood because a black man may be alone with our Woman President in the oval office?
.
If we go the safe route with Biden we still piss of the reactionaries anyway because guaranteed there will be a woman and/or minority in the vp slot. A lower decibel FU but I will take it. However, not to beat a zombie horse, we damn well better have a qualified vp candidate in case Joe doesn’t last til 2024. Joe in the top slot or not, a well-qualified vp choice gives you credibility with the 2-3% of actual independents out there.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus:
Perhaps I’m misunderstanding, but it doesn’t seem to be that uncommon.
Quayle. Gore. And Biden, of course. Those are just a few recent ones, I’m sure there are others.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@topclimber: We may be talking past one another a bit here. I am not considering any fuck you messages in choosing who I will vote for in the primary. Republican voters aren’t gettable, so why would we have any interest in send any kind of message to them? Also, I think using your vote to send any kind of message other than “I want this person to be elected” is a mistake at best and quite possibly self-indulgent wankery.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Baud:
One might need the other’s delegates to reach a majority, come next June…
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Ambitious senators who took the VP slot have tended to agree with Gardner’s opinion about the similarities between the position and a bucket of warm piss. Gore is probably an exception. The big problem with it is that even if you get substantive responsibilities the majority of the credit goes to the guy in the Oval Office.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Sure, but you’re pretty-much automatically next in line, at least the front-runner for the nomination.
HHH, GHWB, Gore. And Biden.
One can have a lot of power in the Senate – if one has been there a long time. If not, then VP can be a pretty big step up.
Cheers,
Scott.
Uncle Cosmo
@Jeffro:
Never fear, Stinklayer is skulking in its lair deep in the fever swamps**, ready to slide out from under its pet flat rock to corrupt the airwaves…
(ETA: IOW, the logorrheic version of what germy said.)
**Metaphorically speaking; its HQ is a blot upon relatively genteel Hunt Valley, MD, where a generation ago I worked for nearly 9 years & attended the Balticon SF conventions over many an Easter weekend.
Bobby Thomson
@Baud: suffers from the same worthlessly small sample size as his slavish devotion to The People Decides.