Here are the 538 polls for New Hampshire and Iowa. What I see is Pete is taking Warren’s support – when she’s up, he’s down, and vice versa.
Click on them to go to the originals on 538 if they’re too small. If people choose a candidate on ideology, then Warren losing voters to Pete makes no sense. But I think what we’re seeing is a choice based on perceptions of electability. Also, I realize that these graphs, and polls, don’t tell the whole story, and that there may be a phenomenon like Pete sucking up all the supporters of the candidates who dropped out (I doubt it). But it’s the best we have, and I thought it was interesting.
syphonblue
It is an absolute travesty that Elizabeth Warren is not doing better than she is, with old-man Biden and white-bread Buttigieg polling better than her. Trump winning in 2016 really fucked with the Democratic voters’ minds and has them acting even more cowardly than ever.
Dorothy A. Winsor
An old guy at the gym yesterday identified himself as socially liberal and economically conservative, then said he didn’t think the country was ready for a gay president. Whether I support Pete or not, I’d like to think he’s wrong. But then I thought the country was ready for a woman president.
Caveats: I remind myself HRC got more votes so maybe the country was ready. Also, I plan to vote for Warren in the primary but support like hell whoever the D nominee is.
Baud
@syphonblue:
I agree. But in the back of my mind, if Warren doesn’t come back, I can’t help thinking she made a mistake trying to be Bernie-
litesmart rather than making a play for Hillary voters, a field that has been wide open this whole primary.Nicole
This is so depressing. I don’t think I’ll see a woman President in my lifetime. Misogyny is just too high a barrier to overcome. Hell, Hillary won 3 million more votes and she still didn’t end up with the job.
I thought the misogyny in the media might be a little less this time around because there was more than one woman running, and none of them had been kicked around by the same media for 30 years, but nope, plenty of misogyny for everyone!
Has anyone else read the piece on The Root about Buttigieg and the South Bend Police department? I can’t believe this guy is still even in the running.
khead
It makes plenty of sense if you think those people are perfectly nice suburban folks who still “want to play nice” with the GOP – because politics is icky – while still agreeing with Warren’s policies.
HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes
@syphonblue:
This environment is reminding me of 2004 and how we got John Kerry. I don’t understand why they’re leaving Warren either.
HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Based on the hatred ginned up towards Warren, and HRC’s loss, I’m ready to buy that we’re more ready for a white male gay prez than a woman. Unfortunately.
satby
@Nicole: well, there are voices in the community who think differently.
snoey
Perceived competence is a factor.
Wilmer is Wilmer, and Biden is old and slow on his feet.
They are the only major candidates that seem possibly up to the job.
College educated breakout in the polls may show this.
satby
@Baud: I agree. I’m still voting for her in the primary, but it’s a shame.
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I mentioned my AA (older) friend who supports Biden. She said that people would be repulsed by the idea of a gay married couple having sex in the White House. I was appalled by that, but she’s pretty homophobic.
Major Major Major Major
Glancing at the charts there’s a much clearer relationship with Biden than with Warren, to my eye. But obviously none of it is 1:1. I don’t know the exact methodology 538 uses here (is this their poll average or weighted estimate that changes even without polls? etc.), but it could also be coming from the undecided pool.
Rdb
As a progressive and a Pete supporter who has actually listened to what he has to say and looked at his policy positions, I don’t really understand what is hard to grasp here. He is just as progressive as Warren- in some specific positions more or less, but overall. I refuse outright the idea that all pragmatism is somehow centrist or not progressive.
jal
Makes sense to me, Warren and Pete are my two favorites for different reasons. My interest in Pete is that his primary focuses are on the system itself; getting rid of the filibuster, term limits, potentially court packing to undo the Trump judicial impact. More than just about anything I want a Democrat that tries to level the playing field in our Democracy. On the other hand, Warren is amazing.
In contrast, the other two top tier candidates are Biden and Bernie who are both unappealing (yes I would support them).
rikyrah
@Nicole:
I did. And, it’s absolutely disqualifying.
There’s a reason he’s at 0% with Black people
Major Major Major Major
There’s also, one presumes, a bandwagon effect where the susceptible voters go with whoever is having a moment. Which in this case would be Warren followed by Buttigieg.
satby
@rikyrah: not exactly.
And it’s annoying to me that my neighbors are dismissed.
HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes
@Major Major Major Major:
Absolutely – I think we’re all going to be surprised by the movement in the polls post NH and Iowa.
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
I need a moment.
WaterGirl
I agree that the Democratic electorate is still reeling from 2016. Gun-shy, spooked, fearful, mistrustful… I could describe it with a hundred different words, but i’m pretty sure we don’t end up with the best candidate when we’re choosing based on trying to guess what the other people are going to do.
I have never watched it, but there’s a game show like that, right? Where you have to guess the answer that most people gave? Not a great way to select our candidate for president.
I have come to think we will have a woman President after one of the old white guys chooses a female vice president. I can live with Biden if he’s smart enough to choose Stacey Abrams, for instance. God help us if we get Bernie or some rich guy who’s republican-lite. I want a real Democrat.
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: “Just not that ______ woman.”
We may get our first woman President when Joe Biden dies in office and that woman _____________ is sworn in.
Feeling low about the primary today. As I said months ago, I was 1.Harris, 2.Warren, 3.Castro and of course any other Dem. I am left with my second choice and the lesser evil of too-old WM.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize:
Looks like we have reached similar conclusions.
Immanentize
@satby: You know that months ago, I was not feeling the Pete because if his inexperience. But he is running a solid campaign and clearly in it to win. Which is what primaries are intended to sort out. I said it the other day, if it comes down to just the top three white dudes, I may favor Pete for the generational/diversity reasons. But still he is not making me want to stand up and holler.
And yes, your information has helped me very much get comfy with that idea. Thank you.
Ohio Mom
This is why I shudder whenever someone suggests a much-truncated primary season. My first impression of Mayor Pete was, So Personable!
Young and energetic! Quick on his feet and articulate! And smart! I even thought his religious schtick was poetic and would help bring in some voters. Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner!
Then, I saw more of him and Ugh! Just a lot of hot air. He’s way too inexperienced and Black voters don’t like him. That’s enough to disqualify him.
In a shorter time frame, I probably wouldn’t have seen all that.
P.S. Don’t even get me started on term limits. Anyone who thinks this idea has any merit hasn’t done a stitch of research on it.
ETA: broken glass, etc.
artem1s
@Baud:
bingo. Warren made a mistake in 2016 aligning herself with Wilmer rather than going all in for Hillary after Super Tuesday. She sucked up to the OWS and glibertarians and perpetuated the meme that donors who work at banks = Wall Street hedge fund billionaires. Hillary’s base is the actual WWC base the Dems (and media) should be interested in pursuing and she had strong support with AA women voters too. I was all in for Harris because of her experience. I will probably vote Warren if she is still in when Ohio votes. Her campaign is intriguing but I find her pandering against ‘big business’ to be tiresome at times. And she has done little to address the loss of collective bargaining for labor and how that impacted the income gap in the country. We need a candidate that recognizes that this isn’t only a win/lose battle against the .01%. If income disparity is addressed, business will thrive and so will the economy. I applaud the billionaire’s tax, but we also need corporate tax reform that rewards companies that address income disparity and values jobs over quarterly earnings. There has to be some carrots, not just sticks, for corporate tax reform to work.
Immanentize
@satby: A lot of people are pretty homophobic. I’d personally rather have a President who could still have sex with his spouse over one that can’t. I think this was, oddly, one of the voter attractions to JFK, Clinton, and Obama. People saw the couples as still sexy in some way. I remember people talking openly about that (comedians on TV even!) regarding that horndog, Bill and the fetching Hillary.
Major Major Major Major
This is why I stopped being a firm supporter. I want the Elizabeth Warren of the phased-in M4A walkback plan, not the Elizabeth Warren of the very silly attempt to fund Bernie’s M4A plan while “not raising taxes on the middle class”.
Immanentize
@Major Major Major Major: I don’t think 538 has yet released their weighted primary averages. But they are coming soon. I saw a little preview in their “last six months of the year before an election” analysis which had a weighted Warren in second.
Major Major Major Major
@Immanentize: Here’s their press release about it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/
If you look at Iowa (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/) you’ll notice a stretch in late December with the “polling average” moving in the absence of polls.
Immanentize
@Baud:
I do too, so don’t take long and please use the Glade by the sink.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: Which is another reason to love and respect you
JPL
@satby: Wow..It never dawned on me to vote for the one I wanted to imagine having sex in the White House.
senyordave
Warren seems to have poor political instincts (at least in comparison to some of the other candidates). Her championing of M4A, to the point of backing elimination of private insurance, baffles me. She even has a plan to pay for it all. IMO she boxed herself in. People don’t want that much detail, she would have been better off talking about expanded coverage and making it more affordable. I don’t understand how she ended up positioning herself as a Bernie Sanders-lite candidate.
She is far and away my favorite of the top four, but I have trouble seeing her winning. And if she does become the nominee it will be easier for the media to paint her as a crazy socialist.
falco850
One or combination of these factors:
I am a male and I certainly want and will vote for a female president. I wanted Warren to run in ’16 and would have supported her over HRC. Voted for HRC mostly because I think this country deserve a female president and long over-due for one.
I hooray-ed loudly (in my little circle) when she decided to run for 2020. But she seems to be wobbling between wanting to be perceived to be a “true progressive” and trying hard to court HRC supporters.
If she got the nom, I will whole-heartedly support her. But this is primary, I have to choose one that I think is the best for the country and for the world. It is not Warren, unfortunately.
OzarkHillbilly
OT:
If’ns anybody has the stomach for it, donald trump as a…. precocious? little girl.
Immanentize
@Major Major Major Major: Thank you. I also looked at a candidate tracker and all the leaders have spent a lot of time in Iowa. Pete and Amy K. especially lately. But Warren has too. And I have experienced it up close — she is fabulous at retail politics. Just better than anyone since Ted Kennedy or Ann Richards that I have experienced. I am not going to count her out in Iowa. But maybe everything is so nationalized now, that one cannot win in any place without winning in every place (Biden’s gamble)
satby
@Immanentize: and you know, every time I link to a video or article written about black support for Pete it’s dismissed or ignored. And each one is different, it’s not the same black guy like the “Blacks for Trump” guy. The narrative must be adhered to!
But it makes me angry because I have met these people here and their greater experience working with the mayor (warts and all) counts more to me than a writer who parachuted into the town for a few hours and then composed a critical article.
NPM
I’m with @major^4 here, I see this as Pete stealing share from Biden.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl:
PS, I have tried hard not to bother you with blog Q’s; but is there any way to make “TEXT” my default comment box? Too many spooky thinks happen to my edits in “VISUAL.”
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: The Bad Seed.
Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray
Looks like CNN no longer knows the difference between “diffuse” and “defuse.” I am dropping into a slough of despond.
Immanentize
@satby: Well, just so you know, they are not entirely dismissed or ignored. Pete does have a problem gaining minority voter support. It seems very much like something he didn’t plan for. Then again, he might not have planned to get this far. So, inclusive outreach is probably the weakest part of his campaign. And it’s a big weakness that may prove fatal after the first two contests. I mentioned somewhere yesterday, I saw Biden has released a list of 100 (+) faith leaders (mostly of color) in South Carolina. On the ground, Biden is crushing that outreach effort.
OzarkHillbilly
@JPL: That was the first time in a long time I was able to watch a cut from Late Night TV from beginning to end. They all seem to feel obliged to insert a clip of trump slaughtering the English language/American diplomacy/logic/truth/Easter/Halloween/ etc. but THIS time… No trump voice which has the effect on me of a thousand fingernails on chalkboards. So I was able to watch it all. Glad I did, LMFAO.
Major Major Major Major
@falco850:
I really don’t get why people act like Buttigieg or Buttigieg supporters are three-headed Martians. He’s a pretty normal, albeit young, Democratic candidate.
mrmoshpotato
@Immanentize: Spooky things!
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Major Major Major Major: He is a Mayor running for President – that’s a little unusual. (i.e. rare in recent history – but not this year!)
satby
@Major Major Major Major: plus a lot of homophobia is closely related to misogyny: revulsion against men who are perceived as effeminate.
Immanentize
@mrmoshpotato: The Immp still loves Scooby
kindness
IMHO the ‘electability’ issue is bullshit because any Democrat is going to be able to beat Trump. Any. Not to say the MSM won’t beat that dead horse because that is what they think their job is.
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray:
Can one defuse a diffuse situation?
Also, where is Stevein? I admit to being a bit concerned.
satby
@Immanentize: I don’t disagree he’s struggling there, but part of that struggle is being an unknown quantity against a known like Biden, and part is deliberate attempts to smear him.
and I also agree he never dreamed he’d get this far. But I’m glad he has because he’s a good guy.
Kattails
I’ve seen other reports from local AA’s who are not so thrilled with Pete, and did he lose a statewide election by 20 points or am I thinking of someone else? An article in The Intercept criticized his naming of blacks who supported him…who had said no such thing; his talking up the Douglass Plan when he had not actually implemented it. And term limits are a ridiculous solution to the real issue of Americans just not caring enough to keep an eye on things and vote every election.
I’m sticking with Warren, and I vote in the NH primary. I’d like to see her play up the numbers that just came out about the cost to consumers of American health care, i.e. amounting to a tax of about $8000 a head.
Snarkily, I just want to reincarnate as an upper class white boy so I can go from small town mayor with zero national or even statewide experience, straight to President.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Oh lord not one of these assholes.
That’s Embarrassed Republican weasel speak for “Republicans absolutely suck on regulating wombs and I personally think it’s kinda ridiculous to keep gay people from getting married and I’ll even say that out loud. But I will, nonetheless, vote for all Republicans all the time because my personal tax rate is the only thing that actually motivates my ballot markings. Period. End of discussion for all time. ”
That thinking goes back to the Reagan years and it’s hugely responsible for the GOP’s failure to address the scourge of its own base because of the lack of electoral punishment for its embrace of the whacko right wing. It’s a willingly obtuse statement.
trollhattan
In re the lab of my kid, first-time voter this year, Mayor Pete is dreamy and glib and only double her age (more or less) thus relatable. Warren is her #2 choice.
I never took his campaign seriously. Same with Trump, only for a different basket of reasons.
Major Major Major Major
I too get annoyed when presidential candidates propose legislation they haven’t signed yet.
satby
@Kattails: stop the presses! A Democrat lost a state-wide election in a ruby red state. That’s never happened before.
And yes, you can certainly find both blacks and whites in South Bend who can take or leave Pete. The statement was “zero black support” and I was rebutting that statement with proof to the contrary. Enough black support? No, probably not; but my neighbors deserve their say just like anyone else.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize:
Speaking to everyone:
PLEASE bother me with blog questions, that’s the only way to fix anything that’s wrong or let you know how to do something that you think can’t be done.
Okay, not on a big 502/524 day, but the rest of the time, yes.
I wanted to scream a couple of weeks ago when John told people to stop using the “f-ing Site Feedback” form. What?! Does John think this is his blog or something? :-)
Seriously, though, we can’t fix what we don’t know about. So as the person who responds to “WaterGirl” email and the Site Feedback form… please let me know if there’s something that’s not working properly for you.
RaflW
@senyordave:
One of the FPers here said this would happen. That centrist (ptuh ptuh feh) bloggers and pundits would hound her and, once she gave detail she’d be fkkd. Lo and behold, it happened.
Which is infuriating. I know it’s whipping a dead horserace to say this, but pundits who have let the GOP magic asterisk their way through 40+ years of deficits hold Dems to a different standard.
I’m not sure how Warren should have thread the needle, but I think she should have known this detail/expectations gap, and the big risks of giving details early. I think she should have done a gauzy one-pager and then pivoted to attacking the GOP-compliant press and their bogus attitudes to GOP transparent profligacy.
But I’m a grumpy blog commenter, so I’m probably wrong on that last point. What it does seem is that she didn’t properly anticipate how her M4A rollout was a forced error, which she compounded.
I hope she bounces back. Of the remaining candidates, she’s who I like best. Do others think her tie-up with Julian is a plus, or a risk?
I’ll vote D absolutely, but damn, this process! Oy.
Major Major Major Major
Doesn’t explain the weirdly high amounts of vitriol to me.
@satby: I’ve had it straightsplained to me several times that Democrats are immune to homophobia, so it can’t be that.
Citizen Alan
@kindness: I really don’t think Wilmer can beat Shitgibbon. I truly don’t . I think in the nightmare scenario, Wilmer wins the primary after a convention that makes 1968 look like a Unity Fest. Then, a week later, something happens to escalate with Iran, and immediately we start seeing the ads about Wilmer’s support for the Iranian Revolution even as they were holding US hostages. It will be Corbyn-Johnson all over again just like the first Brexit vote heralded the 2016 outcome.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@kindness:
That kind of arrogance is not helpful. This election will be closer than it should be in a lot of critical states.
Not that any Democrat can’t beat Trump – but it won’t be as easy as it should be.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize:
I have asked if we could allow people to set the default individually, maybe with cookies or in some other way. Sadly, there is no good way to do that without either slowing things down or completing other things.
So tell me what spooky things happen to edits in VISUAL mode? I assume you are using “edits” to indicate when you are editing a previously posted comment, verses creating a comment in the first place?
Another Scott
@Kattails:
Drum says the tax is ~ $7800 per household, not per person.
I don’t know why anyone is surprised by that. It’s good that it’s getting more visibility.
I too like Warren.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Citizen Alan
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
So a centrist Democrat? Because we all know there are absolutely no economic conservatives in the GOP.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray:
Did they ever? Or at least since Ted Turner left? Surely the state of CNN would have him turning over in his grave, if he weren’t still alive.
That is a total wild ass guess, so if he actually likes what has become of his baby, please break that to me gently.
falco850
@Major Major Major Major: I hope that you are not implying that I am saying or implying PB is a martian or a monster. The problem is that he is a “normal”/conventional/typical politician with little experience and a not so great tracking record (at least regarding race related record), AND with a McKinsey-smooth talk, in this unusual and dangerous time of this country and the world.
satby
@Major Major Major Major: INORITE?
Major Major Major Major
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: I wrote to Steve in the ATL for a wellness check :-) yesterday but I haven’t heard back yet.
Major Major Major Major
@falco850: Not at all, what you said was reasonable :) I’m more thinking of the people (some in this thread!) who seem unable to conceive of anybody wanting to vote for this Martian.
WaterGirl
@satby:
As we have talked about before, that is the most distressing part. Like a particular candidate or not? I don’t care. But we need to make sure we are making the choice based on good information and that we aren’t getting suckered by people who have an agenda.
I see a lot of “Tanya Harding” knee-capping attempts going on with more than one of our Democratic rising stars. The Rs are gonna do that – and by Rs I mean Replubicans, and Russians.
But we don’t have to help!
satby
Ruh-roh, another apostate.
Kattails
@satby: I apologize, my reaction was inappropriate to what you were saying about black support. My bad.
I am frustrated and have real concerns about his lack of experience for a job that I want a LOT of experience for. And I selfishly want a woman president before I shuffle off this planet; it looks like I’m going to have to live a long time. I don’t think any male, gay or straight, is going to raise women’s status in the way that having an actual woman President will do. There are other issues but gotta get to work.
It’s also freezing in here and I can’t get the wood stove started up until I know whether the chimney sweep is actually coming today, he hasn’t gotten back to me. It’s like 15 degrees out. So I’m cranky.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Major Major Major Major:
He’s doing well enough to be a target. He’s a threat to the others. Harris faced the same issue when she was in the race (esp. early on).
Never only one factor, of course.
SFBayAreaGal
@Nicole: I did. I was going to post the same article. Explains one of many reasons why some of Black America wants nothing to do with this man.
Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray
@WaterGirl: I haven’t spoken with Ted recently, so I don’t know.
RaflW
@Citizen Alan: Economic conservative is just newspeak for IGMFY. Which is a lot of people. They may also be mildly pro-choice, and enjoy neighborhood cocktail parties at that nice gay couple’s house.
But at this point when I see economic conservative, I see people who have zero interest in the common good.
bemused
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
I don’t think anyone has ever told me he/she is socially liberal but economically conservative and would like to hear their explanations. What does that even mean except that they are fine with liberal social issues as long as they don’t have to pay more in taxes plus get taxed less.
joel hanes
<em>I think what we’re seeing is a choice based on perceptions of electability</em>
I’ve spent about a quarter of the last four months in Iowa.
The handful of Iowans I know who were looking at someone else but now like Pete
IMHO, Warren’s sashay into M4A and back out, intended to reassure and retain the rose leftists elsewhere, has sunk her in Iowa.
Major Major Major Major
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: So a lot of what bugs me is that–I’d anticipate somewhat similar attacks if it were Klobuchar–but everybody is just leaving Biden alone, even though he actually has a very long track record of economic non-leftist policy.
Everybody just… forgets he’s running. It’ll make it easier for him to win.
Betty Cracker
@RaflW: Not sure Warren really had a choice about releasing a detailed plan. She’s running as the Plan Lady, and that was responsible for her rise (IMO), so she’d have been hounded either way. Live by the plan, die by the plan. I hope she lives by it.
A general note that is not directed at you: Warren’s M4A plan isn’t “Bernie Lite,” and I wish people would stop saying that and implying that she doesn’t have any fucking agency.
Why did she back M4A? Oh, I don’t know, maybe because she believes in it? It’s like we’re so conditioned to accept cynical political posturing that we can’t see a risky but principled stand when it whaps us upside the head.
Mandalay
@rikyrah:
It’s not quite that bad, but you are close enough.
Although this quote from Buttigieg is from 2015, the waffling word salad, and desperation not to offend anyone with his pablum, is borderline offensive:
Those are not the words of someone who has got the backs of black voters.
Kattails
@Another Scott: Should have nipped down to check the newspaper, I was remembering it being described as a “poll tax”, that is falling on every head whether or not they have the ability to pay. This is correct but the article does note that the tax is per household. Of course, I’m the household, so…Another helpful if horrendous number is that we pay $1 trillion more per year than the next most expensive system, and don’t get more for it. “(Case and Deaton)…are surprised that Americans aren’t revolting against these taxes.” Yet Warren went head to head with some reporter about it, can’t remember who right now. This is what she’s been on about.
sigh. Corrected twice for one comment. More coffee.
Nicole
@bemused:
Ooh! Ooh! I used to say that! Of course I was, A) 17 years old and B) trying to sound smart about politics even though I had zero interest in the subject.
Though now, as as grumpy middle-aged lady who actually does pay attention to politics, I think there is a term for those who are actually, genuinely, socially liberal and economically conservative: Democrat.
Cacti
Warren is fading because she has a narrow range of appeal and bad political instincts.
Patricia Kayden
Kent
Apropos of this thread, I’m in a meeting this a.m. with a couple of other teachers including one Black colleague who is a middle aged female teacher. So I asked her about Buttigieg.
She’s not a fan. No particular policy problem with him. Mostly feels like he hasn’t paid his dues and is the typical entitled young white guy who wants to jump the line. She likes Warren, not like it will make any difference by the time the primary finally gets here to WA. I don’t know how much you can extrapolate from a sample of one. But to very much generalize, there might be a feeling among AA folk that this is the sort of thing they have seen their whole life and are tired of. Young “bright” white guys jumping the line and put into positions of authority above them. The young white boss who shows up everywhere in corporate America and even in school districts with all the right qualifications and no experience.
Patricia Kayden
Nelle
@Immanentize: On Sunday, we’re going to a townhall for Warren, with Castro. We’re thinking of wearing our Castro tshirts and our Adios, Trump buttons. What do you think?
Tonight we’re going to go to a Bill Weld meeting. We’re curious about what he could say to justify being a Republican and want to see what kind of people even show up.
Patricia Kayden
@Cacti: Could you explain what you mean? How is she worse than Biden or Buttigieg or Sanders?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@syphonblue: Why do you assume it is cowardice instead of the legit fact that half of Democratic voters really aren’t very progressive? Honestly, while I like Warren’s optimism, I am not as big a fan of her policy positions.
Patricia Kayden
Can’t stand her. Please vote her out.
Cacti
@Patricia Kayden:
Joining herself at the hip with Wilmer, parroting the “Wilmer wuz robbed!” nonsense, the DNA test, her TPP demagoguery, her promise to severely limit her funding sources, the wine cave nonsense, her promise to end private medical insurance, etc.
satby
@Mandalay: and you know, shit has changed in the intervening 5 years. (Maybe not so much with Bernie supporters.) Anyway, Pete apologized for that statement and specifically stated he had learned better from the black people in his community. Part of what those people cite as their reason for supporting him, he listens and grows.
I just really dislike that the members of my community, not just black ones but female, gay and trans ones as well, are completely disregarded as legitimate supporters. They had an up close and personal view of his governing style and like him. Anonymous Twitter users count more, I guess.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@bemused:
I overheard someone saying pretty much this exact thing the other day, so… yeah.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
That’s directed at me. I didn’t call her M4A plan Bernie lite. I called her campaign strategy Bernie lite. And it’s not because she lacks agency. It’s because most progressives seem to consider her Bernie-lite, which is why she is behind him in the polls. If anything, I was criticizing her for her exercise of agency in not doing more to win over 2016 Hillary voters.
And to top it all off, I crossed out lite and substituted smart, because she is both intelligent and progressive.
Nelle
@falco850: I’m new (since April) to Iowa. I dont find my new neighbors to be spoiled brats. They seem to be thoughtful, careful, and conscious of a responsibility to something we ordinary people didn’t choose.
I never would have chosen to live here. My life plan was to be back living in New Zealand now. Instead, I’m rocking a sick 11 month old, who, despite sleeping, has a death grip on my shirt. But, over and over, I make the best of what happens. For now, that means participating in the caucuses, among other things.
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: The thing I’ve perceived with Warren is that she tends to default to complexity, which I guess would be consistent with being seen as “the plan lady.” This appeals to a certain group of people, but is not aligned with a common conception of the role of the president, which is that the president outlines broad objectives and has leadership skills to inspire others (e.g., legislators and agency heads) to create and implement detailed plans to fit that vision (Obama fits that model). It seems to me that Warren does at times lose the forest for the trees.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Nelle: “Wear’em if you got’m”
I wear my Kamala shirt more often these days than while she was still running!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@RaflW:
That is crap. REAL economic conservatives (aka not Republicans) believe in good fiscal stewardship FOR the common good. Personally, I don’t mind paying more in taxes. However, I don’t want most of it going to pay for interest on the debt, instead of toward agencies and programs that broadly benefit the country.
Jeffro
Most importantly, where will Buttigieg’s support go once he (eventually, as he must) drops out? I guess that depends upon what demographics his support is composed of.
Patricia Kayden
@Cacti: Understood.
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: +1
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
I went on some errands and I see MM is back to trying to set us all against each other.
What ever happened to John G. Cole? I thought this was his blog. I used to like to read his take on things, even when I disagreed.
Major Major Major Major
@Baud: for a long time her M4A plan was literally Bernie’s bill. Then it was Bernie’s bill with a (IMO) dishonest funding proposal. At least Bernie admits he’d have to raise taxes on the middle class. Then she finally came out with her own. The middle step is where she lost my firm support. She should’ve done what she usually does and propose a workable plan from the start.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: he’s on twitter, and trying to figure out if he can move the house away from the willow
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He hasn’t been saying that much on twitter either.
Major Major Major Major
@satby: gay white men are considered “basically republicans” in several Facebook groups I frequent.
zhena gogolia
Meanwhile, in the real world,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/09/gop-senator-who-erupted-over-iran-briefing-shares-awful-new-details/?utm_campaign=post_most&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1
Patricia Kayden
This is interesting.
zhena gogolia
I have a fantasy ticket of Buttigieg-Maloney. I think it would be great.
zhena gogolia
@Patricia Kayden:
Did they ask them whether they thought the president should be able to start a war without consulting Congress?
schrodingers_cat
@artem1s: In the Commonwealth the D primaries are where the election takes place. That is the strategy she seems to be using in the Presidential primaries.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Nope, it’s a sentiment I’ve seen expressed around here by a number of commenters who hold that opinion. I think it’s bullshit, which is my opinion.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodingers_cat: I hadn’t put that together. THat’s interesting, and explains a lot of the Dem primary. I think a lot of people aren’t looking past Super Tuesday, whether they know it or not.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: Sorry, had to step away — Yes, when I edit comment, in visual and I place my curser where I need to add a quote mark, or correct spelling, then do so, the whole edit jumps to the end of a word next to the edit, cuts some or all of the good text (maybe 5-7 characters) and causes a huge reorg. hassle. It is not patterened enough for me to figure out what exactly happens.
Then I curse myself for not just hitting the “TEXT” button first everytime. Hence my question.
Mandalay
That’s great, but I can’t help feeling that the Pete back then is who is really is, and the Pete we see now is the guy trying to get elected.
It wasn’t the worst crime in the world – Hillary Clinton also said “All lives matter” – but I’m wary of politicians who want to be all things to everyone. I don’t care for Biden, but his “I don’t give a fuck if you like what I said…” attitude is something that Buttigieg might try to adopt sometimes.
HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes
@Baud:
Nope, I’ve seen this from you and others, and I think it is a really demeaning take on Warren’s generally progressive views, which she came by independently and honestly. She was a featured speaker at Netroots Nation in Providence in 2012, for God’s sake, pushing a progressive agenda. Bernie was just a footnote at that point. Her strategy was a conscious choice on her part, which reflects her authentic views, not some kind of dumb mimicry.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: Thank you!
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: She has far better policy chops that BS. She tends to analyze everything from an primarily an economic POV which leaves me cold when it comes to stuff like foreign policy and immigration because those issues transcend economics. Though she is not my choice for the primaries were she to win the nomination I would be far more comfortable voting for her than voting for Pete B or BS.
Major Major Major Major
Biden has also taken to straight-up lying about his record, which is maybe not something to emulate. See also his hand-raising during debates where he half raises it, looks around, and then decides.
Baud
@HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes:
Bullshit. I have never questioned her political sincerity.
But I suppose next you’ll be questioning who my father was.
Immanentize
@Nelle: I think you are really really lucky! Have fun!
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Senior Baud!
rikyrah
@Kent:
Known a Mayor Pete….all our lives….
Uh huh
Uh huh
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes:
well, that’ll deliver Wayne and Waukeshau Counties.
I agree with this one hundred percent. It was a considered and conscious choice on her part to adopt an unpopular position on arguably the most important non-trump issue in 2020.
schrodingers_cat
Did you guys see that anti-RSS and anti-CAA protesters are creepy Gabbard’s campaign event in NH? They were manhandled by her staff.
mad citizen
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: When Kamala dropped out, my first thought was I should remove my Kamala car sticker. Then I thought No, I want to keep it there for some time. Somebody has to move me. Interesting thread. I strongly want a woman President (as a male); wish Wilmer and Biden would clear the stage, and knock Steyer and (not a D) Bloomberg down as they exit. Mayor Pete would probably be fine, I just find him really boring.
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: Agreed.
ETA: What particularly gets my goat he is feted for the very thing many foreign born are ridiculed for speaking a language other than English.
Immanentize
@Baud: You have never been anything but supportive and positive about Warren. In fact, you are one of the more pro-women candidate commentators here. I get your beef that no one wants to look, even a bit, like Hillary redux, which is a shame because she was quite successful with that coalition. I really don’t know where that shit came from.
satby
@Mandalay: and you never read a single thing I linked to either, did you? Because you already have your answers.
zhena gogolia
@mad citizen:
I still have my Kamala sticker on my car. Along with Kerry-Edwards, Obama-Biden, and Clinton-Kaine.
Major Major Major Major
@schrodingers_cat:
well that’s hardly his fault.
satby
@Baud: ???
Barbara
I haven’t read all the comments, but I do believe that for many people, the only “lesson” they learned from 2016 was how hard it was to elect a woman as president. This reaction should not be dismissed lightly. Their PTSD over getting Trump prevents them from going all in for another woman, at least not yet. Yes, it makes me ill. I still support Warren, and will do so unless I really need to vote for Biden (don’t want Buttigieg or Sanders).
Ella in New Mexico
The other day it occurred to me that it might have been better if Bernie Sanders had won the nomination in 2016 instead of Hillary.
For good or bad, he would have also been the victim of Russian election warfare and would have lost in the General, likely more soundly than she did. It would have taken a ton of the wind out of his sails for 2020, and people would be looking more realistically at the fact that he had his shot and his time has passed. Too many people I know who are supporting him are folks who haven’t done much thinking re: the other candidates and so are just sticking with his comforting familiarity and assuming he’s up for the task like he may have been in 2016. They’re wrong, sadly.
If he’d been her in 2016, we’d then be looking at Hillary Clinton, truly the most qualified candidate to ever run for President vs. Trump, and with all America now knows about who he is, what they did in 2016, and how incredibly dangerous he is I’m 95% sure she’d have been leading this pack, not Biden.
And does anyone here think a Jill Stein or Gary Johnson or even the “hey, Trump’s gonna change things even more than Obama, so fuck it I’m for him” voters would have the same devastating impact in those key states they did in 2016 now?
Not me. Jesus, part of me wishes she say “Fuck it, if clowns like Bloomberg are arrogant enough to run then I’m in!” and I know that’s impossible but fuck it I wish she was in.
schrodingers_cat
@Major Major Major Major: That’s not his fault but a reminder of how the rules of the game change according to who is playing the game. That is my complaint more against the fawning media rather than candidate Pete B.
I do think his job as Mayor of a college town (his winning total vote count was in the 8000’s) is not enough preparation to be the President. I also don’t like his use of R talking points to attack other Ds on the debate stage.
satby
@Major Major Major Major: and it’s also rare for a natural born American to fluently speak more than two languages. The prevailing attitude, especially in red states, is that English is spoken everywhere and learning another language is a waste of time. Especially since why would they ever leave the US?
Barbara
@Kent:
African Americans might not be the only demographic group who feel this way.
Betty Cracker
@Major Major Major Major: Yep. Now he was immediately against the Iraq War after he voted to authorize it.
Kent
And who’s MBA-driven corporate-consulting based “answers” pretty much always involve some combination of: (1) downsizing people out of their jobs, (2) denigrating their professionalism (as in the case of education) with all manner of half-baked oversight and control like pay for performance based on student test scores, and (3) not listening to any voices of experience.
Beware the young white manager in a suit. Whether you are a teacher or work in corporate America.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray: Perhaps now that you’re a Duke, he will take your calls!
Major Major Major Major
I’m just happy front-pagers have stopped calling him Mayo Pete.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: That is spooky!
I made a note of it, and next time I put up a “site” thread, I will ask if anyone else has experienced that. If so, that will help figure out what’s going on.
What device/browser/s do you use?
WaterGirl
@Mandalay:
Or, you know, smart people can learn and change when their ignorance is pointed out to them. As much as you may hate Buttigieg, you surely have to admit that he’s a smart guy.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: This is mostly noticed on my android OnePlus 6T
Android 10
OxygenS10.3.0
artem1s
@schrodingers_cat:
mostly I find all this speculation ridiculous. Iowa and NH aren’t representative of the rest of the country by a long shot. W and Trump finished third in Iowa. NH is slightly more representative but again, the real challenge for a candidate is to not run out of money before Super Tuesday so we can see whether those polls measured how strongly the voters feel about their second and third tier candidates. My feeling is Warren is polling badly right now because people don’t want to commit to putting all their eggs into any one candidate’s basket. It’s not as if she has dropped off the edge of a cliff. She’s done a good job of positioning herself for the first set of primaries. If she finishes third, she’ll be fine, should have a bump in donations, and then we can see where the bottom feeders supporters turn to on Super Tuesday.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: So mostly on your tablet, but maybe not exclusively. I made a note. thanks.
StringOnAStick
@Immanentize: I’m right there with you in your choices and financially supported Harris and Castro to the very end of their campaign s. If it ends up being Biden, I hope he picks Harris as VP or AG.
Bex
@Major Major Major Major: Kos called Pete a “weird anomaly” last month. Of course he also said that Pete was finished last summer. I guess being a weird anomaly is progress?
gvg
@RaflW: Um I consider myself to be an economic conservative but what I mean by that is I don’t like risk. I don’t have play money, I barely get by. I HATE risky behaviors in business like no doc loans. There are people like me who have more money too. A lot of it is instinctual and cautious. Big spending promise paradise new unproven programs tend to turn off that type of personality. When I was a child, there were republicans that fit that definition. Unfortunately, a lot of embarrassed republicans that aren’t actually socially liberal nor educated enough on economics to recognize fiscally conservative if it bit them, have been using that label for awhile, while still voting racist republican. Actually the word conservative has been co opted and doesn’t mean what it used to, so it’s kind of confusing.
@bemused:
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@gvg:
Yes! Exactly! Resources aren’t infinite.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
You got this wrong. It’s not Pete who’s hurting Warren, it’s 79 year old Wilmer splitting the next door vote and the M4A vote. Voters who like a local candidate (Mass or VT) have two to choose from. Voters who like M4A have two to choose from.
I mean, ask you’re self this: if Wilmer wasn’t in the race wouldn’t she be capturing all the M4A and local appeal vote.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Bex: “weird anomaly” ?
Talk about using coded language. Lee Atwater would be so proud.
Jinchi
@HRH mistermix, Lord Bombay Sapphire, Duke of Schweppes:
Its easy to over interpret these charts because the curves are continuous, but if you look at the points on the chart it’s clear there was very little polling in December and Warren isnt doing badly in the single January poll
J R in WV
@artem1s:
If you don’t understand that un-regulated giant businesses are killing people all over the world, and working hard to destroy the environment with unlimited emissions of carbon and related compounds, then you are too stupid to be a voter.
Also, “pandering” is not typically used in the way you have attempted to use it… When one panders to an entity, one is seeking to gain the approval of that entity. Warren is attempting to put big business in its proper place: Under Control. Before they kill us all~!!~
Republicans pander to Big Business, Democrats seek to control Big Business and their , which is the opposite of pandering.
J R in WV
@senyordave:
No, she was very clear from the beginning that she is a Capitalist, who believes that Capital needs to be tightly controlled to keep it from destroying everything in a single-minded focus on profit, regardless of the harm done in that single-minded thrust.
In other words, We the People need to be protected from single-minded Capitalism. Look what happened without protection: Love Canal, the death of Honey Bees, unbridled oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico, the extinction of the coffee tree, etc, etc.
lurker3000
@Barbara:
Lurker here and have to jump in to say that completely sums up my response to Buttigieg. So many better qualified and more experienced candidates, but he’s jumped into first place in IA?? Extremely frustrating. I’d cheer him on for House or Senate, but what is going on with this country that everyone (mostly white) thinks they can just jump straight to the presidency? And then to see great candidates like Harris have to drop out. Just infuriating.
@Betty Cracker:
Dan B
@WaterGirl: Thanks for putting this so well. It’s been exciting for gay people to have an openly gay man doing well. He’s overconfident in his knowledge of the world and has some obvious blind spots: liking black people is not the same as having policies that address racism and/or racial opportunity initiatives.
The claim of racism doesn’t seem to fall on the other white candidates, or at least that I’m aware. Several seem to be equally clueless, if not outright dismissive. Naming them does no one any favors. Michael Harriot’s article seems damning but it uses some rhetorical techniques that aren’t transparent.
There does seem to be a pattern of pitting Democratic constituencies against each other. Could it be supported by Russian interests?
Dan B
@Kent: Yep. Pete seems verrry nice but there is a sense that he is overconfident. A couple others have the same problem. Young and having all the answers is not who you want to drive the car. It’s time for Pete to make mistakes and reflect on them but not where the consequences can affect so many.
Dan B
@Major Major Major Major: Gay white men are basically considered Klan in some circles. (Said as a ‘white’ former member of Black and White Men Together.)
Is it something in the water?
WaterGirl
@Dan B: I think Russians, plus Republicans.
They did such a good job knee-capping Hillary Clinton, starting many years/decades ago, that was its own reward!
Why wouldn’t they start now with the rising stars? They missed doing that to Barack Obama, and they got 8 years of his presidency. I’m sure they don’t want to make that mistake again!
wuzzat
I like Liz Warren. I’ve voted for her myself. But before I lived in MA, I lived in OH, so I’ve still got a whole bunch of wildly liberal midwestern friends. And most of them viscerally dislike Warren. They’re all prepared to support her if they win the primary, but they see her as the “more sincere than Sanders, but still promising to give everyone a pony with no viable plan for actually acquiring, feeding or stabling a pony” candidate. Which is to say, my completely anecdotal evidence supports that Warren’s got a lock on a certain variety of policy wonk and Bay Staters, but leaves a lot of other reliable Democrats cold. Honestly, I do think some of it is internalized sexism — the male candidates aren’t expected to explain themselves nearly as thoroughly as the female ones. But I also think that Liz gets hurt by her inability to distill her ideas into slogan-friendly sound-bites and by having absorbed enough Yankee to be a turnoff for a lot people South of Delaware and West of… I don’t know. Probably Albany at this point.