China's daily #Covid19 increase for 3/3/20 is 119 cases, with 38 deaths.
The virus is spreading there at substantially lower levels than a month ago, though Hubei province continues to rack up cases (115 of the 119).
Their total count is over 80,000 with nearly 3000 deaths. pic.twitter.com/zw4O9TvBVK— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 4, 2020
As labs across the U.S. start to test for #Covid19, what we haven't been able to see will come into focus. How widely it is spreading is unknown, but the new coronavirus is in multiple parts of the country. Y'day NYC found its 1st case. Today it reported its first community case. pic.twitter.com/wqua8CleUG
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 3, 2020
The #COVID19 global spread now officially surpasses 93,000 cases.
I assume there will be an outcry when the "100,000" point is reached.https://t.co/TT1w9O55Qr pic.twitter.com/J9J4et1Brl— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 4, 2020
Thoughts & prayers, Seattle readers…
1. Seattle is at a crossroads: Decisive, aggressive action now is needed to avert a much larger #Covid19 outbreak, @trvrb & @svscarpino say. https://t.co/TfEVK2jg4v
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 3, 2020
Thanks to fast work by @UWVirology we now know that there are at least two #COVID19 transmission chains circulating in the greater Seattle area. We're working on revised prevalence estimates. https://t.co/ZXN51JMpbP
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 4, 2020
3. Other Chinese cities, like Beijing, that started stringent social distancing efforts at the same time as Wuhan experienced much flatter epidemic curves. Seattle's at a critical juncture; acting now could mean a more Beijing-like outbreak, @trvrb said.
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 3, 2020
Seattle Public Schools just issued new guidelines for coronavirus:
If a student or worker had close contact with a coronavirus patient, they will be asked to leave school for 14 days, even if they are healthy.
If someone tests positive, their school will be closed indefinitely. pic.twitter.com/eq0acehUYV
— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) March 4, 2020
The original sin was the decision to center the whole COVID19 strategy on containment.
That focused testing on travel, to exclusion of other sources of transmission.
Which in turn made it look like containment was working, while blinding them to fact that it had already failed.
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) March 3, 2020
Or even more tersely: a whole strategy built around selection bias. https://t.co/3fCi0VAJHP https://t.co/nrfxQD1sOa
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) March 3, 2020
The inimitable @sxbegle dove into the #Covid19 case data to see what we know about who it hits hardest and who is likely to experience the milder version of this infection. https://t.co/np6gyhewjm
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 3, 2020
South Korea runs 'drive-thru' virus testing in Daegu. Follow the latest developments around the #coronavirus outbreak: https://t.co/cEBwkonfeh pic.twitter.com/UhaiboHWdD
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 4, 2020
South Korea will use an app to monitor people who are quarantined over coronavirus — and if they leave their designated location, the system will set off an alarm. https://t.co/Maij0U5qWS
— CNN International (@cnni) March 4, 2020
So clinical folks: thoughts on the new #SARS_COV_2 testing guidelines (which basically seem to be…there are no guidelines)? https://t.co/QIrQTlpamm
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 4, 2020
FANTASTIC NEWS ????????
"As #COVID19 reaches more than 60 countries, the @WorldBank is making available an initial pkg of up to $12 billion in immediate support to assist countries coping w/health & economic impacts of the global outbreak."https://t.co/WIdoXX47Kr— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 3, 2020
I’ve been privately worried about coronavirus in Indonesia for some time. It’s the world’s fourth most populous nation, with the largest Muslim population of any country (lots of religious travel to the Middle East), and shares approximately the same sort of intensive ‘business relationship’ with China as Mexico does with the U.S. And yet, officially, there were *no* coronavirus cases in Indonesia until this week…
So basically the Indonesian gov did nothing. #COVID19 patients found out info themselves, checked themselves in, requested test themselves, and on top of al that, found out tests were positive from the media. Woww. #indonesia ???? https://t.co/XHJlQKgaK5
— Antonia Timmerman (@timmerman91) March 3, 2020
Science reports “Indonesia finally reports two coronavirus cases. Scientists worry it has many more”:
Indonesia finally reported its first two COVID-19 cases on Monday. At a press conference in Jakarta, President Joko Widodo announced that two women aged 31 and 64 from Depok had contracted the virus. But some scientists believe the country, which has close ties to China, almost certainly has a “silent epidemic” within its borders and should urgently boost its surveillance efforts.
Scientists at the Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology tell Science they have offered to the Indonesian Ministry of Health to help test more people, but have been snubbed so far…
But epidemiologists have long said COVID-19’s absence in the world’s fourth most populous nation was implausible, given the large number of visitors—both for tourism and business—from nearby China. A modeling study based on the number of travelers from Wuhan, published by a team at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health on bioRxiv on 11 February, concluded that even then, it was unlikely that Indonesia did not have a single COVID-19 case. (Indonesian Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto called the study insulting and later said the lack of cases was the result of prayer.)
Today, “It’s statistically impossible that we only have two cases,” says Ahmad Utomo of the Stem Cell and Cancer Research Institute.
So far, all testing for COVID-19 has taken place at the health ministry’s National Institute of Health Research and Development (Balitbangkes). The lab can handle 1000 samples per day, says Ahmad Yurianto of the health ministry’s Disease Control and Prevention Directorate. Since the start of the epidemic, Balitbangkes has only tested 333 people, however…
The #COVID19 pandemic is spreading southward in Latin America to/La pandemia # COVID19 se está extendiendo hacia el sur en América Latina para:
Uruguay https://t.co/QH9IOv85n9
Brasilhttps://t.co/r8y7chGERU
Ecuadorhttps://t.co/XyV4ywZzXZ— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 4, 2020
Iran temporarily releases 54,000 prisoners to prevent spread of the coronavirus. https://t.co/LhHo482daR
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 4, 2020
Trump and Khamenei finally agree on something https://t.co/ZPAcS5suwd
— Adam Taylor (@mradamtaylor) March 3, 2020
Small ray of hope?
Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) March 3, 2020
"To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained"https://t.co/CaHGS3wTO2
— ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ ????? (@MackayIM) March 4, 2020
Announcing that the material for up to one MILLION tests will become available is quite misleading without context when the total capacity to run tests remains in the the low thousands. For a country of 350MM people, it remains inadequate. We must build capacity and preparedness. https://t.co/JiVUoXvYCh
— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) March 4, 2020
Assuming #SARS still guides some #COVID19 thinking, one of the toughest outbreaks to stop was in Toronto (fancy hospital, top hlth system). And the fastest defeat of the Vietnam, using a rundown hospital that had been bombed by Nixon So it's possible smart publc hlth isn't abt $. https://t.co/HWJjpLKnN8
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 4, 2020
My latest @SELFmagazine: how does one find good information on #SARSCoV2 /#Covid_19? Who to follow? & why is good info important anyway? Thanks @tarahaelle @mlipsitch @BillHanage @CT_Bergstrom for chatting. https://t.co/hVSLe2aiS1
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 3, 2020
Chinese readers shared their views on how the country responded to the coronavirus outbreak. One was living just miles from the market in Wuhan that is considered by many experts to be ground zero for the virus. https://t.co/5bBwpplwrL
— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 4, 2020
When it comes to playing games, can’t beat the IOC!
The number of confirmed coronavirus infections in Japan topped the 1,000 mark, mostly from an outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise liner https://t.co/qhvAKpGMFV pic.twitter.com/FQm35YQzRV
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 4, 2020
If you have been thinking twice about traveling anywhere during the global spread of novel coronavirus, you’re not alone. https://t.co/hDn0WC6ooQ
— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) March 4, 2020
"Fear is OK. Fear is natural. We’re all afraid, with even the experts admitting that there is a huge number of things about this outbreak that we just don’t know yet.
Just don’t let the fear control you. You’ll probably have to live with it for a while yet."#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 https://t.co/B3xYIse1kv— ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ ????? (@MackayIM) March 4, 2020
Speaking of hopeless cases…
— Ann Telnaes (@AnnTelnaes) March 3, 2020
Dan B
South Seattle resident. Many neighbors are Chinese but not travelers that we know. Most Chinese restaurants are experiencing very slow business. The Mayor has even reported this. She needs a photo op since telling people business is down is more likely to encourage confirmation bias. There was a story going around that 38%of beer drinkers were never drinking Corona again. Probably an urban legend.
The grocery I shop at, a coop, is taking measures to reduce the spread but many of the shelves were empty a few days ago – pasta, tomato sauce, TP, etc.
Opiejeanne and Mr. O are very close to Kirkland where the nursing home is located. So is a client’s clinic.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Amazon since they have a confirmed case. Boeing and Microsoft are forecasting lower or flat earnings due to supply chain issues, and Boeing due also to reduced travel.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
This is in California; At work today HR sent out an email that anyone with a fever was to stay home and if a manager had an employee who had a feaver they were to send them home, that meetings that could be done over the phone were to be done that way and people who could work at home were to do so. I guess the Chines CEO is taking this seriously.
JPL
@Dan B: Thank you. There are two confirmed cases in Fulton Cty., GA and they are at home, so the local store shelves are now empty. I didn’t understand the buying frenzy until I saw the letter sent out from a temple in New Rochelle, NY advising their congregation to self quarantine.
Shalimar
@Dan B: I think the poll was 38% would never drink Corona. 4% said it was because of the virus. The rest apparently just don’t like it or want to like it.
Princess
My uncle died in Indonesia in late January, in Bali which is a major tourist destination for China. He had COPD. I have wondered whether COVID-19 played a role. I have no evidence at all of this. But I have wondered.
Uncle Cosmo
This is a bit concerning (from Begley at StatNews):
For context, recall that the prime suspect in the lethality of the socalled Spanish Flu of 1918-19 is pretty much this, overreaction of the immune system. OTOH, cytokine storm has been invoked to explain why the earlier virus had its most severe effects amongst healthy younger victims with (one presumes) stronger immune systems. Which is the opposite of what’s been observed here.
Also, a single research result.
Conclusion: Bears monitoring but at this point not much more.
Feathers
@Dan B: @JPL: From what I recall the question was would you buy Corona beer now? No – 38%. Same question, with and have you previously ever bought Corona beer? 4%
There was also the observation that even though if you liked Corona beer and knew damn well it has nothing to do with the virus, you just might not want to hear people’s shitty jokes about it right now if they saw it in your fridge.
Emma
Funnily enough, the school district where Kirkland is (and where I work) seems to be the least freaked out by all this compared to the district just north of us, who closed a high school for 2 days last week for disinfection, and then closed all schools yesterday to train teachers in tele-teaching or whatever the term is. I’m just praying that the last day of school remains on a Friday, and that we don’t bleed over into Monday in the last week of June.
Emma
@Princess: Aw :( I’m sorry.
ziggy
Here’s a good article that explains why the numbers for the US that keep being repeated are essentially meaningless:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/
Until we get widespread, efficient, free testing, looking at deaths might actually be a better barometer of what is happening in an area.
Take care all you Seattle area-ites!
Princess
@Emma: Thank you.
opiejeanne
@ziggy: My niece wants to get together for a birthday party soon, and after discussing it we decided not to go to a restaurant, but to have a potluck instead. No one thought going out for supper was appealing.
mr opiejeanne turns 73 tomorrow, I turn 70 on Monday, our son-in-law has a birthday toward the end of March (we have it written down).
My sister’s was on the first but she still lives in SoCal, so maybe we can have a video visit with her. She seems unconcerned about all of this, just got back from a month in Switzerland with her younger daughter, and is going out to restaurants twice this week. In fact, her neighbors and friends all seem unconcerned about the virus.
opiejeanne
@Princess: I’m sorry for your loss, and that you have no way to know. That part seems to make it feel worse.
opiejeanne
The death count in WA is now 10. They added another death from Feb 26 that they just identified as the result of COVID-19. Is back-identified a useful term?
opiejeanne
The total is now 11, and the first death is recorded in California, in Placer County.