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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Bellingcat Versus The GRU

Bellingcat Versus The GRU

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Luke Harding has a new book coming out, so The Guardian, where he is a reporter, has a teaser article.

That article starts with a writeup on Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat, the organization he built. I watched from the start too. His use of open-source intelligence to figure out what was happening in Libya and then Syria was impressive. Some of it dovetailed with my interests in chemical warfare. [Disclosure: I write occasional pieces for Bellingcat.]

The focus of the article is Bellingcat’s identification of the two GRU agents who poisoned Sergei Skripal and his daughter, before law enforcement agencies managed to.

Harding argues that this shows the decay of the GRU’s spycraft. They left documentary evidence essentially lying around for Bellingcat to find.

Open-source intelligence can do a lot, and states haven’t fully come to terms with it. That said, there are big downsides to what has become a parody of open-source intelligence: the misidentification of innocent people by social media mobs.

Bellingcat is careful to keep its information about people to itself until it has a positive identification involving multiple documentary sources. What it is doing is utterly different from the Twitter request to find a particular person. Bellingcat will toss out a photograph of a bomb fragment or other equipment for crowdsourcing an identification, which is quite a different thing.

Anyhoo, take a look at the Harding article. It’s a long read, but if you only get halfway through it, you’ll have learned about Higgins and Bellingcat.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

67Comments

  5. 5.

    patrick II

    @wuzzat:

    Judicial Watch has a new ad out too:

    Hold Hillary Accountable
    Judicial Watch has uncovered 439 emails that Hillary didn’t turn over!

    If only Hillary were running again, that would be a winner.

  10. 10.

    Felanius Kootea

    Been looking for an open thread to post this but can’t find one, so this will have to do.  I just finished reading this powerful essay in the New York Times against confederate monuments that begins: “I have rape-colored skin.” The author is a black descendant of Edmund Pettus, Confederate general and former grand dragon of the KKK.  It’s one of the best things I’ve ever read on this issue and takes head on the eliding of the history of rape in the South and the fact that many Southern black people have white ancestors who brutalized their black female ancestors.

  12. 12.

    VeniceRiley

    Back in the day, I used to love Andrew Sullivan’s regular posting of a photograph and having readers guess the location where the camera was located right down to the window or balcony or whatever. I never tried, as it’s beyond my alilities, but was astounded how many came close or got it spot on from such minor cues as a church spire or license plate or random signage.

  13. 13.

    Just Chuck

    @VeniceRiley: I’ve seen that game played with Google Earth, starting with a street view.  You can zoom out and reveal the answer any time of course, but the idea is to walk around street view and guess.

  18. 18.

    Brachiator

    That article starts with a writeup on Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat

    My mind drifted to Bellingcat and it’s likely reference to the Aesop fable. A group of mice come up with a plan to stop a maurading cat by placing a warning bell around his neck. The plan falls apart when a mouse asks who will volunteer to put the bell on the cat and everyone makes excuses.

    I forget that the world doesn’t really stop because of the pandemic. Tensions are still increasing over the border dispute between China and India, for example.

    I’m curious as to what Russia’s long play might be, since they are still a second rate nation barely able to get their own economy in order and surviving on the fumes of their past reputation as the scary (and still overrated) Soviet Union.

    I scanned the article and look forward to reading it. The odd thing is that I have not been able to watch long movies, read books or read long articles since the pandemic. Prefer short clips and snippets and have been filing away longer material for later.

  19. 19.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    Judicial watch just uncovered some devastating evidence: apparently Hillary always took up TWO parking spaces at Secretary of State.

  20. 20.

    japa21

    Just saw something on the book of faces. A suggestion that we should stop calling entitled complaining women Karen. Ivanka works better.

  21. 21.

    jonas

    @wuzzat: The Lincoln Project has already cut an ad slamming Trump over the Russian bounties in Afghanistan. Veteran groups need to kick Trump and his GOP enablers’ asses over this so hard they’ll all need to sit on hemorrhoid donuts from now until November.

  23. 23.

    MattF

    @patrick II: Ridiculous, but the relentless demonization of Hillary Clinton worked. The good news is that the Lincoln Project is now doing this to Trump. And they’re well aware of it— Rick Wilson calls the current scandal ‘Benghazi on Adderall’.

  25. 25.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Leslie:

    Cheryl’s and/or Adam’s take on this

    I’ll give you mine:  It’s panic-mongering idiocy.  I am deeply impressed by how the author spends entire pages not describing any specific thing that could be refuted going wrong, but making vague ‘Whatever you’re imagining that’s bad, it will be that’ comments.  Okay, not impressed.  Irritated.  A thirteen year old could have written that.  There are too many people involved in the process for the results to be denied.  Trump has no way to not accept them.  The people who enforce the transition, like the military and the Secret Service, will listen to the official results, even if they take days, and follow them.  Gore/Bush required a hair-thin election difference.  Come to think of it, so did Trump’s election.  The GOP chat on the margins, not in direct denial.

  28. 28.

    jonas

    @Felanius Kootea: I just finished reading this powerful essay in the New York Times against confederate monuments that begins: “I have rape-colored skin.”

    Shit. Well, that gets your attention, doesn’t it? I recall a couple of years back the “23andme” company took some shit for an ad wherein they imagined that a black slave and a white guy fall in love and flee to the north where they could “be free,” implying that maybe you could discover some cool romantic story in your mixed-race ancestry. A lot of black folks were like, um, no, that’s actually *not* how a lot of us ended up with white DNA…

    Needless to say, the ad was withdrawn pdq.

  29. 29.

    Baud

    They found the whitey tape.

    Democrats want John Wayne Airport renamed after ‘I believe in white supremacy’ interview resurfaces

  32. 32.

    prostratedragon

    @Just Chuck:  Yep. Reason I feel contempt as the major variety of distaste for him. At bottom he’s nothing but yet another spoiled brat. Or brat as bratva or something.

  33. 33.

    Brachiator

    @Felanius Kootea:

    It’s one of the best things I’ve ever read on this issue and takes head on the eliding of the history of rape in the South and the fact that many Southern black people have white ancestors who brutalized their black female ancestors.

    It’s more complicated than that. But some people recently have insisted on claiming that every degree of racial mixture is due to the brutalization of enslaved black women.

    Related to this, in a way, was Muhammad Ali and his rejection of his slave name when he briefly became Cassius X. But his name was derived from that of a furious abolitionist and one of his ancestors was an Irish immigrant who married a free black woman.

    As far as I’m concerned, they can test down every Confederate monument and a few others. But then I have to slow down and think about this attempt to create a Year Zero where we reset history. Because unfortunately almost every notable person in history who is a hero to some is the oppressor or enemy to others.

    I think I may have to find a way to navigate through a paywall to get to the Times article.

  34. 34.

    zhena gogolia

    @japa21:

    Yes! I feel so sorry for women named Karen. This way, only a few poor Czechs or Slovaks will be insulted. (says a Slovak)

  36. 36.

    Geminid

    @David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:  I was listening to Hew Hewitt’s radio show a few weeks ago. Some guest was talking about the susceptability of liberals to fall for false narratives, and as an example brought up Alger Hiss! They’re playing the golden oldies because they’ve got nothing else.

  39. 39.

    Brachiator

    @jonas:

    I recall a couple of years back the “23andme” company took some shit for an ad wherein they imagined that a black slave and a white guy fall in love and flee to the north where they could “be free,” implying that maybe you could discover some cool romantic story in your mixed-race ancestry.

    Yeah. This is far-fetched. But there were free black males who married enslaved women and tried to find ways to snatch them out of slavery if they could not buy their freedom. And there are stories of white men who bought the freedom of black women they loved.

    And one of my favorite historical incidents is encapsulated in an ad I once saw involving a white slave owner who lost three things he valued. He had placed an ad seeking the return of a mulatto slave who ran off with his wife and rode off on his prized horse.

  41. 41.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Geminid: I did see a bunch of my left friend posting about the minneapolis burning house the other day. Basically reduced the whole thing to “police bad, tear gassed crowd when the crowd tried to rescue sex-trafficked kids” when it was “the crowd tried to burn down a house (twice) that they thought had sex-trafficked kids in it, and the cops cleared the are (with tear gas) to let the firefighters through.”

    The kids were found 3 miles away and sword they’d never been to that house or knew anyone that lived there.

    We make mistakes too. In this case, they’re right on the overall message (The police are often indifferent and depraved to the citizenry) but wrong on the specifics: the cops did the right thing here and protected innocents, but they went overboard on dispersing the crowd. The crowd, meanwhile, was a fuckup from the beginning.

  42. 42.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I tend to go by the rule that if it’s really badly written, it probably doesn’t have much to say.

    It doesn’t, and it says it at incredible, stultifying, mind-numbing, self-congratulatory length.  Ugh.

  43. 43.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Just Chuck:

    Including the People’s Republic of China, for example? I ask because the PRC looks to be rising in terms of global power

  44. 44.

    catclub

    @Brachiator:&nbsp

    ;Tensions are still increasing over the border dispute between China and India, for example.

    and Doesn’t India still have kashmir in lockdown, after arresting their political leaders?

  45. 45.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Baud:

    It should be renamed. It goes without saying, but the people who decided to name that airport after him didn’t care or take white supremacy seriously

  47. 47.

    Brachiator

    In other OT news

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday ordered bars to close in counties including Los Angeles, while recommending closures in some other counties, citing the spread of the coronavirus. The order from Newsom, a Democrat, affected the counties of Fresno, Imperial, Kern, Kings, San Joaquin, Tulare, and Los Angeles — the most populous in the United States. State officials have asked at least eight other counties to issue local health orders closing bars.

    A little background:

    On June 20, the day after bars were allowed to reopen in L.A. County, about 500,000 people decided to go out for a drink, according to the Department of Public Health.

    Before the pandemic, the estimated number was 700,000 people hitting bars, breweries, wineries and lounges. And so, inevitably, you are seeing a surge attributed to community spread.

  48. 48.

    Feathers

    @japa21: “Karen” as clueless white woman predates the recent video evidence of the species in the wild. Here’s one example on SNL’s Black Jeopardy. It’s the one with Chadwick Boseman as Black Panther, the Karen part starts around 5:00. (But the whole thing is hilarious.) I started hearing Karen as specifically black slang, along with jokes about raisins, around this time. “Karen” had been white slang longer than that, here’s an article on the history of the meme: How the name ‘Karen’ became a stand-in for problematic white women and a hugely popular meme. It doesn’t mention the potato salad bit, but Black Twitter seemed to have picked it up there. There won’t be a new name for “Karen” until Black Twitter decides a new one is needed.

  49. 49.

    Brachiator

    @catclub:

    and Doesn’t India still have kashmir in lockdown, after arresting their political leaders?

    Yep. India and Kashmir. China still oppressing Muslim minorities and cracking down on Hong Kong.

  50. 50.

    Brachiator

    Jesus wept. From CNN.

    A choir of more than 100 people performed without masks at a robustly attended event in Texas at the First Baptist Church on Sunday that featured a speech by Vice President Mike Pence.

    Nearly 2,200 people attended the “Celebrate Freedom Rally,” in the Lone Star State, according to rally organizers, which has seen a severe surge in coronavirus cases since easing restrictions. The venue capacity for the indoor event was close to 3,000 attendees, organizers say.

    Throughout the service, the members of the choir sang at full volume, behind an orchestra. Between songs, the choir members put their masks back on when they sat down, according to pool reports from the event. The members of the choir had space between them, but it was not clear if it was the recommended six feet.

  51. 51.

    Martin

    @Brachiator: Orange County should also be closed, but isn’t part of the order. Our R-effective is higher than LA county. Guessing our shithead county supervisor is to blame for lobbying that decision.

  53. 53.

    cope

    Thanks for that.  It was longish but interesting enough that it moved right along.  I have added Harding’s book title my expanding list of future reads.

    I found it oddly comforting to read about Russkies in disarray.  I found it not so comforting to imagine that there are many, many folks doing what Mr. Higgins does with varying goals and aims.

    Also, too, I learned two new Russian words that are strangely descriptive of our current administration: raspad meaning disintegration, breakup or collapse and bardak meaning chaos or mess.

  56. 56.

    Brachiator

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    Yeah, I was surprised neither the OC or Ventura County was on that list.

    I think it politically astute for the governor to try to get local officials in these counties to take the lead.  But of course you have people who insist on being stupid in the name of liberty.

    I’m not sure how the local hospitals are doing.

    Hell, even if the right wing insists on playing political games, they could at least increase aid to medical facilities.

     

    ETA. Over the weekend, I was talking to a restaurant owner who was fuming about the impact of the lockdown on his business. Yeah, some of this might be reasonable, but he kept on about how the local officials were communists. I thought about asking him what he thought should have been done, but I wanted to make sure I got my takeout okay with no hassles.

  58. 58.

    Felanius Kootea

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Yup.  I almost missed reading the article because like many on Balloon Juice, I’m not too happy with the New York Times, but I’m glad I read this one.

  59. 59.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Brachiator: I had that issue at the beginning of the lockdown. A local restaurant (great hot dogs and ribs, and that’s all they do) spent 20 minutes angrily gushing about how awful Newsom was, how he never earned any actual money himself and didn’t care about people, and how he’d better watch out or people with guns would stop him. They were also not particularly good about virus prevention – they were wearing masks, but they were (illegally) letting their friends hang out in the restaurant and eat inside, and they parked my food right next to them while they were bagging, etc.

    Haven’t gone back since. It looks like they moved to fully-outside to-go service, so that’s good. If they’re still open in a month or two I might get something there.

  60. 60.

    Felanius Kootea

    @Frosty Fred: I wouldn’t go as far as saying “all.” Oprah is originally from Mississippi but I remember that her DNA analysis on Finding Your Roots showed that she had no European ancestry, just African and Native American.

  61. 61.

    Felanius Kootea

    @Martin: Well, the “recall Gavin Newsom” movement started in Orange County, so maybe he’s decided to ignore OC and hope for the best (kidding).

  62. 62.

    Frank Wilhoit

    @MisterForkbeard: “…Haven’t gone back since….”  Quite right.

    “If they’re still open in a month or two I might…”  Better you don’t, and here is why: individual boycotts are the closest thing to accountability that any American business will ever face.

  64. 64.

    Brachiator

    @MisterForkbeard:

    A local restaurant (great hot dogs and ribs, and that’s all they do) spent 20 minutes angrily gushing about how awful Newsom was, how he never earned any actual money himself and didn’t care about people, and how he’d better watch out or people with guns would stop him.

    I know some California conservatives who hate Newsom for being rich and privileged, but who love Trump for being rich and privileged.

    The restaurant owner grumbles about politicians and health officials for screwing with his business, but he has been scrupulous in following all the guidelines. And the customers always wear masks and some have spoken about being at higher risk. So, this guy may complain, but he looks out for his customers.

  65. 65.

    The Moar You Know

    Throughout the service, the members of the choir sang at full volume, behind an orchestra. Between songs, the choir members put their masks back on when they sat down, according to pool reports from the event. The members of the choir had space between them, but it was not clear if it was the recommended six feet.

    @Brachiator:  Singing inside at full volume with an orchestra?  It won’t matter if they’re six feet apart or twenty, God help ’em, if one of them has the shit they’re all going to get it.  Singing is not like talking or even yelling; you’re supposed to pull from the very bottom of the lung.  Where COVID loves to live. And inhale the same way.

  66. 66.

    Brachiator

    @Felanius Kootea:

    I think you can get one of four free articles from a new browser – the essay is really worth reading.

    I’ve blown through all my browser freebies.

    But apparently I still have an old NYT email account that lets me in to view a few more stories.  Got it.

    Very powerful and moving commentary.

  67. 67.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    @Geminid: You have to be in your 90s or well educated to know who alger hiss was.

     

    I mean he was on “Hogan’s Heroes”, right.

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