'We are not going to have a decision by 11 p.m.': Voting-rights advocate @StaceyAbrams says result of the November 3 presidential election could be delayed pic.twitter.com/gRKkbZmxHz
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 5, 2020
My bill with @kamalaharris and @berniesanders to give everyone $2,000/month until the end of this crisis (and 3 months after) is retroactive to March. Working families deserve this money. Let’s get that $12,000 into their pockets ASAP, and then keep the money flowing.
— Ed Markey (@EdMarkey) August 4, 2020
Sen. Menendez on coronavirus relief negotiations: "What's amazing to me is that there is no sense of urgency by the Republicans."https://t.co/QlqFIXgoru
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) August 5, 2020
Suddenly *some* Repubs realized… this might just work out not entirely to their advantage…
Lawmakers say they can’t return home without coronavirus deal while White House aides are split on use of executive powers https://t.co/qQgCpOVy6f
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 5, 2020
… Especially since they’ve been very publicly cut out of the negotiations:
The White House and Democratic leaders agreed to try to finalize a deal to address lapsed unemployment benefits and eviction restrictions by the end of this week and hold a vote in Congress next week, suddenly trying to rush stalled talks in the face of growing public and political unrest…
The agreement on a timeline came in a meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.
The four have been meeting almost daily for a week. Their agreement Tuesday on a specific timeline to reach an overall deal constituted the most concrete progress yet. It suggests that the White House has backed off efforts to pass a stand-alone extension of unemployment benefits — and will also stand down, at least for now, on more recent threats to act unilaterally through executive orders if no deal can be reached with Congress…
The talks came as Senate Republicans on Tuesday began to emphasize that they will need to stay in Washington until a fresh round of pandemic relief aid is enacted, worried about facing the wrath of voters if they go home without one as deaths from the novel coronavirus are rising and the economic recovery has stalled.
The Senate had been scheduled to adjourn for its August recess starting next week, but that is not looking feasible…
“We really went down issue by issue by issue, slogging through,” Schumer said. “They made some concessions which we appreciated; we made some concessions which they appreciated. We’re still far away on a lot of the important issues, but we’re continuing.”
It was unclear what concessions had been made on either side, and Meadows contended that the concessions made by the administration were “far more substantial” than those the Democrats offered.
Schumer also said the Democrats had requested a meeting with the postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, for Wednesday to discuss delays in delivering mail…
“I think I’ve made it very clear for some time now if you’re looking for a total consensus among Republicans you’re not going to find it, because we do have divisions about what to do,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters…
“It’s not going to produce a ‘Kumbaya’ moment like we had in March or April where everybody voted aye, but the American people in the end need help,” McConnell said. “And wherever this thing settles between the president of the United States and his team who have to sign it into law, and the Democrats’ not insignificant minority in the Senate and majority in the House, is something I’m prepared to support, even if I have some problems with certain parts of it.”
If you have to shake hands with #MoscowMitch, always count your fingers afterwards. But at least it sounds like he may have decided (or been ordered by his kleptocratic masters) not to push matters to the point where destroying the GOP and sowing the site of its death with salt seems like a preferable alternative to a working majority of American voters.
On The Road – ?BillinGlendaleCA – Star Trails, with some surprises.
Matt McIrvin
If we really wanted to win big in November, and didn’t care about the price, we’d just do nothing and let the country crater on the other side’s watch. I don’t think the Republicans realize how much the Dems are helping them here just because we care about human beings.
?BillinGlendaleCA
It’s pretty obvious that MoscowMitch has seen some internals that scared the crap out of him.
JPL
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Why not vote on the House bill then? Maybe he thinks the next bill will be the lesser of two evils for him.
debbie
The inevitable delays as mail-in ballots are counted will be miserable for us all. Trump will be more insufferable than usual. Counts and recounts topped by lawsuits. Damn this long nightmare.
Aleta
JPL
@debbie: If trump is ahead on election night, he’ll declare victory. We just have to hope that Roberts doesn’t stop the counting of the ballots.
Ken
The administration is no longer insisting on renaming Florida to Frorida, for example.
debbie
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I think they’ve chosen to do nothing because they see defeat in their future, and so they might as well let it all burn down and then wait to blame the other side for the disaster that this country has become.
gkoutnik
Interesting phrasing. Lots in there. Including “they made me do it…” This is not the statement of a man who has seen the light.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
OzarkHillbilly
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Being minority leader isn’t near as much fun as being majority leader.
OzarkHillbilly
@gkoutnik: Oh, he’s seen the light alright, it’s a laser dot centered on the forehead of his political career.
BC in Illinois
In the good news for Democrats department.
In the MO 2nd congressional district, both the incumbent Ann Wagner (R – safe Republican vote) and the Democratic challenger Jill Schupp were unopposed.
However.
102,592 voters voted in the Democratic primary, 63,404 voted in the Republican primary. And in St. Louis County, which is most of the district, Medicaid expansion passed with 73% of the vote.
This may be a good year for suburban Missouri.
I’ll leave it to others to comment on Cori Bush [ a well-respected activist and progressive ] defeating Lacy Clay in the MO-1 congressional district. Even the papers that endorsed Clay were reduced to saying “yeah, he’s coasting and not very effective, but he has a lot of seniority . . .”
trnc
I’m still working, so I don’t need an extra $2000/month right now. I see some people justify it by pointing to the enormous tax cuts for the wealthy, but I would really rather claw all of that back and send some of it to people who actually need it instead of getting into a big tit for tat that adds to the deficit, which then becomes an excuse for republicans to cut social spending.
Matt McIrvin
Nobody who remembers 2000 can stand by and let Trump steal this one by manipulating the vote count or leaning on the courts.
debbie
@BC in Illinois:
In a big picture kind of way, I think Bush’s victory is a good step toward addressing social justice in the Congress.
Bruce K
And check your wallet, scrub down thoroughly, burn your clothes, and get tested for every poison and disease you can manage.
Mousebumples
We donated the first stimulus payments to local orgs (NAMI, Big Brothers Big Sisters, and a local women’s shelter), and if they do that again , we’ll probably do the same (maybe different groups). I almost prefer this to the extra unemployment payments since then it applies to everyone so you shouldn’t get the comments of “I wish my job would let me go so I can get $600 for nothing” nonsense.
germy
raven
@Aleta: I applied for a position in the fall. They were totally fucked up, terrible communication, application website that didn’t work and all kinds of stupid shit. The called last week and I said, “um, I’m 70 years old, I won’t be going door-to-door”. Last night I was put on a group text for people who were in online training and they would not stop! Fucking morons.
Ken
@trnc: Same here, but IIUC adding means-testing will delay any program significantly. It’s the same reason the Republican proposal to limit UI to 70% of prior income is a no-starter, it would take too long for the states to update their computer systems.
Maybe they could send everyone the money, and fiddle the tax code to determine how much of it needs to be returned next year.
OzarkHillbilly
I’ll say good. Coasting is a nice way of putting it. I’ll probably get in trouble with Quinnerly for saying this as she loves him, but DEMs can disagree on things too.
Betty Cracker
@BC in Illinois: I was just reading about the Clay-Bush race — fascinating outcome. Clay inherited the seat from his father 20 years ago. The father had held it since the 1960s.
Usually, that would be enough to have me rooting for the challenger since I am biased against political dynasties, but for POC and women, there are fewer paths to power.
Sounds like the district thought it was time for a fresh face. I read that Rep-Elect Bush is a nurse, and that’s generally a good sign; nurses tend to understand how shit works.
germy
rikyrah
@trnc:
Countries around the world aren’t having this debate. Pay the folks so that we don’t have social collapse.
They had a trillion dollar tax scam, so phuck anyone talking about paying folks to stay inside and keep afloat.
You will either spend the money or save it.
Cheryl Rofer
I’m glad that expectations are being set that we won’t know the winners on election night. (Unless there is an enormous landslide for Biden.)
I’m old enough that I remember when the networks brought in their estimates and models. At first they even said “estimate” when announcing those results. Uh-oh, I thought, at some point everyone is going to think those estimates are really results. And here we are.
I dislike the networks’ arrogance of “declaring” the winners. The local voting authorities declare the winners, tyvm. A little humility, please.
The Thin Black Duke
@debbie: Thing is, if the Democrats have the House, the Senate and the White House, I think people will be surprised how much shit gets done because the Republicans won’t be in the way anymore.
OzarkHillbilly
@germy: They did do it in NC. Of course, some DEMs finally got caught doing it in STL a couple of years ago too (basically the same play book: “Here, we’ll take it and make sure it gets to the right place for you even if we aren’t related.”)
I have the feeling it’s an easy thing to do but it’s even easier to get caught doing it if someone actually pays attention.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m shocked by the census folks being ordered to quit a month early. Who does that?
On another topic, I got some editorial feedback yesterday–11 single spaced pages of it. It’s great but it’s going to take some effort on my part to rise to it. Once I settle into it, it will be fine, but my first reaction was to close the doc before I finished reading it.
Anya
I am in the school of thought that calls into question the effectiveness of the Lincoln Project ads but I love it when they target Javanka. The LP’s ads are generally designed for the Morning Joe crowd and other beltway talking heads and that is Javanka’s constituency.
Their latest attack ad is targeting Jared Kushner “TRUMP’S SECRETARY OF FAILURE!” I love it.
rikyrah
In these hard times, I am about to write up a proposal for overtime for our staff. I don’t see anyway around it. Our work is time sensitive, and it won’t be done without it. I have been thinking about all night, and I don’t see any other way. We have a new head of our division. Since the beginning of the year, old heads like me have been warning that this would happen. They didn’t believe us, but now, it’s here. I thought that it would come in about a month, but it’s here now.?
Ken
@Dorothy A. Winsor: A couple of days ago someone posted that the House has to vote to accept the census results, and could order a do-over if necessary. I have no idea if that’s correct.
germy
@Cheryl Rofer:
Thank you! It’s been bugging me for years. The networks are so anxious to scoop each other, they declare winners when votes aren’t even counted. “With ten percent reporting, we declare republican Glem Gopnoozle winner of the governor’s race.” etc.
All the way up to the Race For The White House (cue superbowl graphics and explosion sound effects)
gkoutnik
@OzarkHillbilly: Oh, yeah – that light!
Aleta
Daniel Bice, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
gene108
@Matt McIrvin:
Republicans really cannot grasp how much Democrats are saving Trump, and them, by pushing through the largest stimulus bills in history.
Anya
@Betty Cracker:
I am glad Bush won. The district deserves a new voice and someone who will look out for the interests of the people of Missouri instead of just grabbing power for themselves. I’ve been reading a lot of William Lacy Clay since last night and him conspiring with Republicans to give them a veto power over the redistricting maps, that took away an extra voice the St. Louis is enough for me.
gkoutnik
@Cheryl Rofer: Yeah to that. “Our network has ‘called’ the race for…” as if they’re referees and have control over the whole thing. No wonder so many people are confused and misinformed about how the political process works.
Ken
Yeah, the Election Central productions get more ridiculous every four years. One the head-scratchers for me is the use of holograms, which I’m sure look great in the network’s studio but not so much on their viewers’ 2-D screens.
germy
@Aleta:
Video of Ruhland. You notice she goes through the door with “Mask Required” sign and she’s not wearing a mask. That’s how you know she’s a republican.
Dorothy A. Winsor
It’ll be interesting to see how the remote conventions are televised. They’ve been treated as spectacle too–which I guess they mostly are these days. What will the networks show this time?
Mr DAW just told me that Trump might give his acceptance speech from the White House. I guess we’re done worrying about electioneering from government spaces.
Gin & Tonic
So my son, who is pretty much packed and ready to leave Kyiv next week, just had a very encouraging second interview for a position he’d applied for a while back … located in Kyiv.
John S.
@raven: That’s a shame. I was a crew leader in the 2010 census, and it was a very positive experience for me.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: Oh my. Does he want to stay? How long before he has to decide?
Aleta
@raven: I looked at that census worker application website for a relative; it was as horrible as you say. It was similar to the newer postal worker application in its unreasonable, inconsiderate treatment of people who need work. In accord with using workers like gaskets, wear them out and replace.
germy
It just shows their arrogance.
I remember an old story about Elvis Presley. He had just made a record, and one of the musicians found him testing it on a tiny, cheap box record player. “Why are you playing it on that old piece of crap??” the musician asked. “This is how my fans will hear it,” was the reply.
rikyrah
Canvassing during a muthaphuckin’Pandemic ??
Gin & Tonic
@Dorothy A. Winsor: He wouldn’t mind staying – it’s a 3-year contract. But his flight is booked, and most of his stuff has been shipped already – and most importantly, there isn’t an offer in hand yet.
Soprano2
@Anya: Republicans have tried to recruit black representatives in St. Louis and Kansas City to help them undo the Clean Missouri state redistricting amendment that was passed with 62% of the vote in 2018. Their argument is that if we do state House redistricting differently, black people in those cities will lose representation, so they should just trust the Republicans in the state legislature to keep doing it. I don’t know how successful they’ve been, but I can see someone from the old guard like Clay getting onboard with that, even though he wouldn’t be affected since he’s not in the state house. I’m sure Bush wouldn’t help them at all. It’s probably time for a change in representation in that district. I don’t dislike “dynasties” as long as they’re working for people, but when they’re coasting and not doing the work they need to go. I tend to dislike term limits as a matter of principle; it’s only in politics that we say “Now that you have experience and really know the job, we think you should leave”.
Aleta
@Dorothy A. Winsor: By fortunate coincidence, the rose garden renovation by the 1stlady will include “improved infrastructure and drainage and a better environment for the plants and flowers” and “improvements for audiovisual and broadcasting needs.” (AP)
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
narya
@Ken: And it’s my understanding (again, based on something I read/heard, so may be wrong) that they can order a census any time–they MUST do it at least every ten years, but MAY do it more often. Because of the time and cost, it would be a big step, but it would be worth it to do it right, IMHO.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@narya: You’d think the pandemic alone would be enough reason to doubt the count.
@Aleta: Assuming they don’t screw it up!
Gin & Tonic
@Aleta: How lucky we are to have her.
Baud
@Aleta:
Plant TV?
PenAndKey
The absolute best thing we could do for the economy right now is give consumers cash to keep the economy afloat from the bottom up. There’s no reason to “claw back” any aid given out. All doing so would do is sow resentment toward all the folks who get to keep the funds.
I’ll admit, I’d absolutely love to get a $12k check from the government and $2k/mo going forward despite keeping my job. My wife has been unemployed for 4 months and the WI UI system is so screwed up she hasn’t seen a dime in assistance despite applying weekly. As a result I have all but used up all of my lifetime savings to keep us afloat, trashed my credit by telling the credit card companies to get in the back of the line for payment, and generally stressed over funds the whole time while recognizing we are better off than many. As far as I’m concerned it’s going to take us years to recover and the feds owe us all. The aid Markey is proposing is the bare minimum that should be accepted, not a pie-in-the-sky wish. Deficit spending is absolutely going to be needed to pull the country out of a depression. That can’t be avoid. What can be avoided? Ceding the ground to the GOP “deficit scolds” who are silent most of the time but crop up every time Dems are in charge.
trnc
That seems like a good idea as long as it is part of a tax overhaul to claw back the tax cuts for the wealthy. I understand the delay for means testing, but we would have had time for that if not for gop contrarianism since the spring. I know people can’t afford to wait for us to make that policy point, though.
SiubhanDuinne
Just heard on MSNBC — but so far haven’t found anything on line to support it — Pete Hamill has died. I haven’t read him for a long time, but used to, avidly, in the day. May he RIP.
Brachiator
@gene108:
It’s not a stimulus bill. Neither was the previous bill. People, especially economists, need to stop thinking about it that way. At best, this is short term maintenance, a substitution for the shut down economy.
What the federal government needs to do in addition is to push hard to bring the pandemic under control, to lower the number of cases and hospitalizations, so that more of the economy can be re-opened while we hopefully wait for a vaccine.
But I agree that the Democrats would be saving Trump. His aids know this, and I suspect that the GOP leadership also know this. That’s probably why I don’t trust what is going on. MoscowMitch does not give up easily. And Trump will be looking to maximize potential personal gain.
trnc
Huh!?! I didn’t say claw back aid, I said claw back tax cuts that went to the wealthy. You even included my quote.
The Thin Black Duke
@SiubhanDuinne: Before the New York Post went crazy, he was a columnist there. A damned fine writer.
PenAndKey
@trnc:
I misread then, my bad. I’ll blame my general lack of coffee and sleep for that. You’re right, those upper range tax cuts absolutely need to go.
SiubhanDuinne
@The Thin Black Duke:
Very true.
sanjeevs
Made me laugh
mobile.twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1290867644263014400
cmorenc
@JPL:
Roberts is savvy enough and protective enough of SCOTUS as an institution that he won’t likely permit the court to be used the way former Chief Justice Rehnquist did in Bush v Gore, most especially not on behalf of the likes of Donald Trump. Roberts has already been on the side of several substantial decisions that have gone against Trump, and knows he can command a majority of 5 to counter any perceived excesses during a Biden administration.
In fact, IMHO it’s more likely that Roberts will vote on the side of permitting the votes to be counted.
The place where fuckery is likely is at state level where in e.g. Florida according the nominal already-counted ballots, Biden is ahead but the state legislature tries to intervene in the selection of electors to give the state to Trump.
Kathleen
@debbie: What will be just as bad will be media breathlessly hyping the horse raciness of it and spinning it in Rethugs’ favor. Are you voting by mail? I need to apply for ballot. Never voted by mail before but am betting Covid and Rethugs will rodent fornicate in person voting. This and post office destruction have pushed me over the edge.
Brachiator
@germy:
You would have to outlaw exit polls and make it illegal for any reporter to talk to voters, which obviously would be unconstitutional.
dnfree
Give everyone $2000 a month retroactively? That seems like lunacy to me. I’m retired. My income has been not at all affected, and I’m not spending as much. Why would Kamala Harris attach her name to this? It’s just “Democrats want to hand out free money” fodder.
Betty Cracker
Axios has some new gossip about the alleged state of the VP selection. They say it’s down to Harris and Rice. An excerpt:
That last sentence screams “bullshit speculation” to me: does anyone think for one second the Obamas won’t be an enthusiastic presence on the campaign trail regardless of the pick? I mean, come on…
PenAndKey
Add Wisconsin to the list of states with GOP-led legislatures that would absolutely try that if they thought for a second they’d get away with it. Vos and Fitzgerald are wannabe McConnell clones and they have the backing of the state supreme court to effectively screw with Gov. Evers any time he does anything they don’t like. Little things like “existing law and institutional norms” haven’t meant anything to them for years. If WI is leaning republican at midnight on election night I can certainly see them trying to lock in the vote then and there despite the fact we’ve had no-fault absentee ballots for quite a few elections now.
Kathleen
@John S.: So was I. I had a ball and a great crew.
PenAndKey
@dnfree: It’s just “Democrats want to hand out free money” fodder.
The GOP is going to be screaming about “free money!” anyway. DIrect payments are an effective way to prop up the economy and prevent voters from losing everyone and give them a means to recover what they’ve already lost the last few months.
Betty Cracker
@dnfree: Free money from Democrats probably sounds pretty good to the 30 million people who lost their jobs. If you believe a massive increase in government spending is the only way to avert economic catastrophe, it’s not unreasonable to believe we’d be better off spreading it across the population, including to retirees like you, than handing it out to defense contractors and so-called job creators who’ll spend it on stock buybacks and exec bonuses.
Matt McIrvin
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I’d spent some time wondering what happens if they announce Census results that are just obviously fake: California’s population decreasing by half, that kind of thing. Do we just throw our hands in the air and say “gotta use them, the card does say Moops”?
Kathleen
@Betty Cracker: I’ve predicted Kamala since she dropped out of primary. No doubt in my mind. Seems like a lot of kabuki between pols and pundits who need to feel important.
raven
@John S.: With my background, credentials and military service they dropped the ball on me.
Matt McIrvin
@dnfree:
Are we so beaten down that we can’t even float these ideas? We should want to hand out free money–it’s actually the right thing to do, especially in a crisis like this! We should be saying “HELL YES we do” when we get accused of wanting to hand out free money! Make it imaginable to think about this again.
debbie
@The Thin Black Duke:
It should prove to be very entertaining for sure.
Betty Cracker
@Kathleen: I would be very surprised if it’s not Harris too.
PenAndKey
@Betty Cracker: We have a well established history in this country of only supporting aid that benefits everyone. Take social security, for example. The GOP has tried, for years, to gut the program. Does anyone honestly believed they wouldn’t have succeeded by now if it were means tested out of reach of most of the country? One of the very reasons why we have such a poor safety net in this country is we spend so much of our efforts acquiescing to the demands that only the poor qualify for it. Right or wrong, the idea of “why should I support a program I can’t benefit from?” resonates with a lot of people, especially when those people are, by design, just over the threshold of qualifying.
dnfree
@dnfree: and yes, I know there are many families who could use the help. But there are also many who don’t need it. I don’t know a good quick way to figure out which is which. And cost of living in rural areas is much lower than in cities.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
The census is used to determine all kinds of things, including Congressional representation. You gotta get it right or do it again.
And hell, can you imagine a contested election and a contested census? It’s almost as though someone, somewhere wanted to grind the nation to a halt.
Matt McIrvin
@Kathleen: As I said before, we’re all left having to make all these low-information calculations about which voting method has the least chance of being fucked over by Trump. Will the damage to mail voting from sabotage of the Postal Service be worse or better than the damage to in-person voting from COVID-19, general chaos, possible mass violence in the fall? Who the hell knows? I’m just furious that it came to this.
In-person early voting or mail-ballot drop boxes might be the best alternative, but not every place has those either.
PenAndKey
That one’s easy. You don’t even try. Putting money into the pockets of the average consumer is nothing but a net positive for the economy when you’re trying to pull it out of a recession or depression. The argument for means testing isn’t an economic one; it’s a moral one.
geg6
@Kathleen:
Totally agree. Still not a giant fan of hers, but it seems pretty clear to me that it should and will be her.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Personally I think Rice would be a mistake. She’s never run for office and I think VP is one position where that kind of experience is a necessity. I think it needs a politicians touch.
SiubhanDuinne
I don’t think TaMara usually participated in morning threads, but today is her birthday and I hope we all have a chance later in the day to wish her a heartfelt “Hippo birdies two ewe!”
mad citizen
@Betty Cracker: After all Barack noted her good looks in August 2013, then had to apologize the next day.
Still displaying my Kamala sticker on the back of my vehicle (that rarely goes anywhere these days)–hoping there is reason to remain there through November 3. I’m sure Susan Rice would be fine, but never having run for office seems like a stretch.
geg6
@dnfree:
You need to understand two things. First, the rich have been given giant chunks of the people’s money in the form of ridiculous tax cuts and preferential tax treatment for the last forty years. It’s about time that middle and lower income people get a break, regardless of whether they think they need it or not. Second, the only way the people in this country will approve of any government program, whether for cash or for a benefit, is if everyone can qualify. I see this on a small scale every day when trying to explain to people why their kid does not qualify for a subsidized federal student loan and the neighbor kid does. The only way to make it work well and not turn off a significant number of middle income people is if they can also benefit.
Brachiator
@PenAndKey:
I don’t think this is entirely true. And means testing exists even in progressive European countries.
Also, part of social security benefits are taxable above certain income levels. You can’t always get a deduction for an IRA contribution above a certain level of income, you lose health insurance subsidies, etc.
PsiFighter37
Personally, I am going to vote in person. Granted, being in NYC, my impact will be much smaller…but my message would be that if you are able-bodied and wear a mask, vote in person. I want this election fucking called on Election Night.
geg6
@Brachiator:
You talk like people actually know or understand all this. Believe me, they don’t. They all know they get that SS $$ in the end and that’s all that registers with most people.
The Thin Black Duke
@geg6: Truth. This obscene culture we live in shovels billions of dollars to billionaires, but steps on the brakes when it comes to giving junk change to non-rich people. Fuck that noise.
Immanentize
@PenAndKey:
@dnfree:
The solution to the UBI “free money to those not in need,” is fairly simple. You tax it as income. Some people will end up paying meager taxes that they never would have paid before. Others will be returning a third or more.
And taxing UBI as income has the great advantage of identifying people who ought to be filing/paying taxes — if you take the $$$, you will have to file. And everyone almost will be in line for whatever meager amount we allow.
1000 per month per person? Still way below the actual poverty line. 2000 per month? Closer.
Folks should stop worrying about the “unworthy” and just get on with helping us all out as a policy. Means testing is as stated above, the ultimate death knell for benefits.
ETA. 2000/MONTH per person is like 300B a year. Less than half of our on-books obvious direct defense budget. Priorities?
debbie
@PsiFighter37:
I’ve decided to vote early and in person. If I can get there early enough, it shouldn’t be bad. It wasn’t in the primary: I was the only voter in the hangar-sized building.
rp
@Betty Cracker: Agreed. The idea that the Obamas would campaign more enthusiastically for his VP if Susan Rice is on the ticket is preposterous.
Immanentize
@geg6: perfect example — why do we stop social security tax payments at a certain income level? That is a complete giveaway to people of means. And it hurts our social security system.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I don’t know. I can see Michelle Obama going on “She’s a cop!” on Twitter if it’s Harris.
geg6
@PsiFighter37:
Easy to say at your age and place of domicile. At 61 and 73 and able-bodied, my John and I plan to vote by mail, even though we live next door to our polling place. Typically, we just walk over and vote. But our calculations are quite different from yours. First, John has several health issues: he’s a cancer survivor, had a small stroke two years ago and has suffered from asthma for many years. Second, we live in a county that, although very close to Pittsburgh, has one the stupidest Trumper populations in the state. It is a massive lift to get these people to wear a mask, social distance or take any of this seriously. I try mightily to limit my exposure to these assholes to grocery shopping and getting gas. I am being forced back to work in the office in a couple of weeks and that is about all the exposure that I plan to add. Very easy for you to say we have to vote in person when you aren’t in a situation where that could mean life or death.
Baud
@Immanentize:
I’m not opposed to universal programs, but there are plenty of means tested benefits that have survived the test of time.
Immanentize
@Baud: And Barak will tweet, “I know Joe well and he’s lost a lot of heat on his fastball”
Immanentize
@Baud: True, but most of them, like those mentioned above, benefit the wealthy folks (IRAs for example which killed pensions). The means-tested benefits to help those in real need are constantly being attacked (welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, etc. Even social security which is barely means tested). I agree means testing isn’t an absolute no go. But it always requires watchfires on the borderlands.
Patricia Kayden
debbie
@geg6:
It’s a personal choice. I have asthma and I’ve had pneumonia several times. I’m still going, sanitizer and inhaler in hand. If it feels at all hinky, I can turn around and leave. Early voting starts a couple of weeks before the deadline to request absentee ballots, so I can fall back on that.
OzarkHillbilly
@geg6: I am fortunate in that my rural precinct is very small and the polling station is never crowded. Going to it is no more dangerous than going to the local lumber yard. I’ll be voting in person because I just don’t trust the trumpublicans to not fuck with the absentee votes.
Brachiator
@geg6:
I’ve been in the tax business for a lot of years. People know this. And the people who don’t know wise up pretty quickly when they end up with a balance due instead of a refund.
Also, one of the things that make it harder to justify giving everybody some money is that Federal Reserve reports clearly indicate that a significant number of people saved their stimulus payments, and didn’t spend the money to help stimulate the economy.
And a lot of the supposed pro business support was a waste of money.
PenAndKey
And how many of those people saved their checks because it was an income, in a time when people don’t have their usual incomes, and they treated it as an emergency reserve to be tapped into later when they have no choice? The White House and Senate have been very vocal in not wanting to do continual aid and there isn’t really an end in sight in this country for COVID right now. People are squirreling away their funds and not making unnecessary purchases. That’s to be expected.
geg6
@debbie:
I already know it will feel hinky. I know these people and I see how the firemen (the polling place is the fire station) are following the guidelines. Hint: not at all. Which isn’t surprising since they are all Trumpers.
Woodrow/asim
Only people who’ve forgotten that the Obamas love the Bidens so much, they were willing to loan them money so they didn’t have to sell their house to support Beau’s family, after his tragic passing.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@mad citizen:
Me too! Now next to my Biden sticker. I’m prepared!
catclub
Me too. But I have been thinking about donating it to political campaigns.
geg6
@Brachiator:
Well, I’ve been in the financial aid business for over twenty years and all I can say is that your clientele must be the smartest around or mine are the stupidest. Because most of them don’t seem to understand the simplest of financial matters. I’ve had to explain capitalized interest on loans and what, exactly, a credit check involves to people with incomes from $15K a year up to over a million. Very few of them understand how any of it works.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: One of things I wonder about is whether the people who saved it did so because they were expecting harder times to come and wanted the money to get through that. IOW, did they save because they didn’t need the money now or did they save because, no matter how much they need it now, they expected to need it more later. If so, a regular recurring payment would be more likely to be spent.
ETA: Or what Pen and Key said.
Jeffro
LP has a new one up and it’s a doozy: “Jared Kushner – Secretary of Failure”
YEOWCH!
Patricia Kayden
@Betty Cracker: President Obama has robustly praised Harris so I have no idea why he wouldn’t support her.
catclub
The state unemployment systems are effectively broken for quick changes – hence the blanket $600/wk rather than targeted payments. Similarly for the IRS and the stimulus payments. Intelligent choices are not available.
germy
Emma from FL
@dnfree: And while we fiddle to accommodate the Republicans’ bullshit people starve in the streets. Fun times.
Yes, I am angry. I’ve had to postpone my retirement until next year. But it is what it is, right?
Omnes Omnibus
@Patricia Kayden: Michelle doesn’t like her since Barack said Harris was good looking and Michelle is very, very insecure. //
Brachiator
@catclub:
I agree that state unemployment systems are a problem. There is no similar problem with the IRS. Not even close. And because the IRS has more information from 2019 tax filings, they can do better than they did with the first stimulus payments.
They even figured out how to avoid sending checks to people in prison.
catclub
@Jeffro: why no linky?
OzarkHillbilly
@PenAndKey: My youngest and his wife certainly did and good on them. Now that it is dried up they still don’t have to worry about ending up in the street.
blacque_jacques
I want this to pass so I’ll get a nice letter from Trump. Not a check, because I didn’t get one last time nor did I expect it, but I sure got a Trump-O-Gram, a month late and sent to my NL address, and I’d really like to get another.
I bet even if only the $200 version passes, he still sends a letter.
Kathleen
@Matt McIrvin: It’s obscene. We need the people who monitor elections all over the world in here.
OzarkHillbilly
@blacque_jacques: Are you gonna frame and hang this one too?
raven
@PenAndKey: We split the difference and gave money to a local immigrants organization and saved some. I still keep thinking these motherfuckers are going to go after teachers retirement and SS.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: One of the reasons for make some types of payments universal has nothing to do with whether people need them or not. It is that universality is the point. We all are going through hard times, and people who don’t need it to survive can save it for when they do need it or give it away. More money in the economy is more money in the economy. I’d rather a number of people who don’t need it get it, than have a number of people who do need it not get it. Setting arbitrary cut-off or phase outs can fuck people over if the cut-off is set wrong. Just give people money. Let’s survive this with the economy as intact as possible and then work on perfecting things later.
germy
@OzarkHillbilly:
When I got my letter, I wrote ASSHOLE with a sharpie, and an arrow pointing to #45’s signature.
And then I tucked the letter away with other papers, stuff that won’t be sorted through again until after I’m dead.
It’ll be my final, raspy chuckle from beyond.
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
Obviously, you can’t read people’s minds, but there are indications that some people put it in the bank, invested in stocks, beefed up their IRAs, etc. This might suggest that they were not expecting immediate hard times.
But again, the first stimulus was partly sold on the idea that people would immediately spend the money and, you know, stimulate the economy. This didn’t happen with some people who got payments.
Kathleen
@Omnes Omnibus: Auditioning for Mo Do’s NYT gig are ya?// Pitch perfect except you need to work in a gratuitous swipe about Hillary Clinton.
MisterForkbeard
@Betty Cracker: I’m willing to believe that Michelle might be more enthusiastic about it if it were a really good friend, but… that’s like saying your car will go further if you put in 10 gallons as opposed to 9.5. But since you’re only driving to the corner store anyway, it doesn’t matter.
germy
Kathleen
@Brachiator: I saved mine precisely for the reasons you mentioned.
OzarkHillbilly
@germy: If we got a letter it went into the round file without ever being opened.
Noname
@PenAndKey: I second ALL of this! You’ll never hear a billionaire or corporation saying “we don’t need this money”. I am fortunate that I don’t NEED it at this point but I’m damn sure taking it.
PenAndKey
It did, however, happen enough to actually stimulate the economy and keep it from completely collapsing.
mad citizen
@germy: I salute you, SIR! I also received the letter about a month late, and saved it for later use–your idea is a good one.
Awhile back I came across a postcard or something from the W stimulus check–good times!
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
This is not true.
In another thread you noted that immigration was not of major interest here. In an ironically similar way, tax policy relating to lower income people is not a big deal either. There’s some interest in marginal tax rates and sexy ideas like giving money to everyone, but the most practical issue relates to expanding the earned income tax credit, especially for single people and married people without children, who only get a ridiculous $538.
Addressing this problem has long been an area of focus for tax policy wonks, and also has been an issue with massive obstruction from Republicans.
My state, California, has been trying to increase the maximum amount available, but has hit a wall hard this year because the pandemic sucked up their budget surplus.
Money for nothing without means testing is the hot and shiny new idea, but is perhaps not where the focus should be.
ETA. I would also throw in how undocumented workers with citizen children and spouses are increasingly treated like a caste undeserving of any tax benefits by racist and mean spirited Republicans. I would really like to see a Biden administration get a handle on this. Of course, there would have to be massive changes in Congress.
Omnes Omnibus
I think this is the more important thing that I said in that comment.
Geminid
@germy: Will Rodgers was a perceptive man, and he knew how to express it. Great quote.
Yutsano
@Brachiator: Oof. Good luck with that. I can already see some changes that would help (restoring claiming dependents who are overseas) but getting non-citizens earned income credit is going to be a stretch too far even for some folks who consider themselves liberal. But if there’s a good argument you can make (and spouses of citizens MIGHT be sellable) then it’s worth a go.
Brachiator
@geg6:
It’s not just my clients. I work with and train tax professionals. Feedback and analysis simply does not indicate that people do not understand income tests and limits. The one exception might be how investment income limits some credits.
blacque_jacques
@OzarkHillbilly:
no, but I have a talking Trump doll (received as a gag gift many years ago) I’ll hang like in the Tarot card.
Other Suzanne
I just want to confirm what geg6 is saying about the ‘stupidest Trumper population’. Tis true; I live here as well. And no, these folks won’t wear masks. I don’t leave the house (when I do) without it on. Folks look at me like I’M crazy! This county ain’t never going to change. I grew up here, as did my mother and grandmother. My immediate family left in the ’80s (Yay!) But…..years later I find myself back. (long story) Matter of fact, it was the day after the 2016 election!!! So you can imagine. I’d love to leave, but with no funds and a raging pandemic….kinda hard to do.
ETA: My polling place is 3 blocks away and I will vote in person. Can’t truss it!
Brachiator
@Yutsano:
I totally agree. The sad thing is that this is one area where a lot of liberals don’t understand the degree to which undocumented people who work and pay taxes are totally and deliberately fucked over by Republican policy.
Or worse, some don’t care.
Elizabelle
@SiubhanDuinne: Pete Hamill is one of those guys I thought had died several years previously. Hmmm.
JPL
@Omnes Omnibus: I also read awhile back that Biden had been speaking to Yang who promoted something similar.
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
Republicans and Democrats are both trying to slip some of their pet policies into the Stimulus bill. It’s never just about dealing with the immediate crisis.
Also, the Republicans slipped in extra tax breaks for corporations into the first stimulus bill and wailed about how the Democrats needed to immediately approve the bill in order to help save the economy and workers. Total bullshit, but that’s how the game is played.
StringOnAStick
Now that many people have been out of work longer than they were when the first checks went out, the need is even greater. If there was ever a big need for UbI, it’s now.
we gave that first $from the feds to groups that we knew were going to have increased demand, like food banks and shelters. I retired early in March because Covid makes what I used to do insanely risky, so to me a UBI would replace some income I permanently lost due to the incompetence of the administration.
Screw means testing, get money circulating immediately and before the flames are at everyone’s door. Keynes was right and has been proven right over and over.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: Yes, and that’s why I am not overly concerned about some people getting money who didn’t “need” it. We are sculpting with a chainsaw here, not a scalpel.
Yutsano
@Brachiator: I’m fortunate in that I get to see it first hand. I also live in an area with a lot of immigrants. And I cringe when I see their refunds next to a citizen with a similar income getting $6000+ back. It would definitely be a good thing if only the spouse (primary or secondary filer) wasn’t a citizen but everyone else on the return was and EITC* eligibility was extended just for them. We’ll have to see what happens with the massive tax overhaul Biden and the new Congress will propose. I still think the lift will be heavy but it could probably get done.
*Earned Income Tax Credit. For those of you who don’t live and die by the acronym like we do.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Is there a secret list of BJ birthdays somewhere?
Brachiator
@Yutsano:
Yep. I would really like to see Biden get a Democratic Party majority in both houses of Congress. But in any event, I will be looking closely at what he proposes. There’s a huge amount of work to be done to fix the GOP tax mess.
PST
@Betty Cracker:
Plus, can anyone imagine Rice not having a major role in the Biden administration even if she is not the VP? Surely Secretary of State or National Security Advisor. He clearly has great confidence in her even if she is determined in the end not to be the most expedient running mate.
WaterGirl
@Baud: There has been no talk of your VP this year. Last time around I believe I was your Valerie Jarrett, and there’s been no talk of that this year, either.
Surely you are not holding your cards close to your chest so you can time your announcement of VP so it steps on Joe Biden’s announcement.
J R in WV
@Aleta:
I would say the census project is completely hosed from top to bottom this year. When I first got a mailing from the Census people, which included a web link to complete your form online, I got online and filled it out for our household, two elderly adults. Was easy to complete.
Ever since we have been receiving physical mail about how we are required to complete a census form, penalty of law, etc, etc. As if I hadn’t completed a census form online. They didn’t even have to upload, or key in, or scan data in, it was stored on a computer behind the web page.
But the people in charge of sending threatening letters out to people who don’t complete a census form evidently don’t have a phone number / email address / access to data from the web site people… Maybe it’s just a conspiracy to funnel Census funding to the Post OFfice? Sure stupid in any case.
I recommend a total redo of the census starting as soon as Joe Biden has had time to unpack his shades in the family space in the White House. Everything the current maladministration has attempted to do has been a total abject failure, from the Southern Border Wall to the faint line between US and Canada up north. They can’t even do a Trumpista Rally any more!
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s why the first stimulus bill was such a mess and a lot of people who needed help got nothing. We need to do better.
WaterGirl
@Brachiator: @geg6:
And how many of your clients are students? Your experience is valid, but so is the experience of geg6. I’m pretty sure she’s not an idiot who is misunderstanding the students and families she has worked with for decades.
All people are not the same. It feels insulting that you would use the word “simply” to discount everything geg6 has just said she knows to be true of her clientele.
WaterGirl
That’s from the VP article. Surely Biden’s campaign isn’t so dumb as to make this decision based on internal polling?
Scuffletuffle
@germy: Gopnozzle…What a wonderfullyTrollopian name that is!
germy
@Scuffletuffle:
As is Scuffletuffle! I’m a fan of odd names.
The Pale Scot
The UK puppet show that mercilessly satirized politicians in the 90’s Spitting Image is coming back.
Please get this going before the US elections, and post the Trumpet everywhere on Twitter
J R in WV
@PenAndKey:
Fixed that for ya!!!
J R in WV
@Brachiator:
Funny, I read somewhere that the IRS computers are vintage 1970s, and repair parts are no longer manufactured. The Republicans hate big government, and the IRS is the piece they hate the most.
I suspect there are huge areas where it is plain not possible to adapt the IRS systems into anything like modern IT systems. Their main computer center is in WV, so gossip circulates in the IT community here. Imagine Web services written in COBOL…
Yutsano
@Brachiator: And honestly OO should know better. It’s not like there isn’t a chainsaw carving school in Wisconsin or anything. Your point is valid: there are definite holes in the last program that need to get fixed. We also need to get help out as quickly as possible.
Yutsano
@J R in WV: Fortunately we have hacks for getting into the mainframe for communication, but it is true the main IRS computer system uses COBOL and magnetic tapes. In fact the reason most of our changes show as “pending” is because it’s uploaded onto a tape that is shipped with other tapes every two to three weeks. I’m not kidding. The IRS computer system really is that slow. The problem is every upgrade that has been proposed doesn’t match the capacity of the older system. There are so many records on there that every other system tested either breaks or is somehow even slower. I’ve been promised an upgrade to the IRS system since I started in 2010. Nothing even close has come online.
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: I mean, if their internal polling shows a violent reaction from Republicans if they bring Susan Rice on board that makes them much more likely to actually vote, then I’d support the use of that polling.
Likewise, if polling on Kamala shows that it would cause broad disengagement from the left, etc.
Ruckus
@JPL:
His job, as far as he’s concerned, is to put money in the bank accounts of his major supporters and be a racist fuck the rest of the time. He gets paid well for that, why is he going to change? And he’s old so at some point even a job of doing next to nothing gets tiring. After all he didn’t get the job of majority leader because of his stunning personality, charm or wit.
Ruckus
@Aleta:
Here’s a nice wiki page on the nice Mr Jacoby. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Political_
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
Late note. I spoke only about my experience and the tax professionals I work with. I didn’t make any judgement geg6’s experience or conclusions, or even any comparisons. I have a sense, from reading her past comments, that she is deeply experienced and has great perspective on her profession.
There is no way that I could dismiss her knowledge or experience. None.
However, if anything I wrote came across as insulting, I certainly apologize. Without reservation.
ETA. Also to your other point. I have deep experience with a wide range of taxpayers. About the only area I am weak on might be farmers and farm returns.
Ken
@Yutsano: Do you mean the IRS database system has so many records that they can’t get satisfactory performance from newer systems?
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Kathleen: I agree. Kamala seemed the obvious choice from day 1. But what do I know?
That stuff from Dodd about her not apologizing for being effective and attacking Biden (legitimately) in a debate almost made me lose my mind. We want a fighter as VP. Historically, the VP candidate was the campaign bulldog while the Pres candidate floated above the fray a little.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@StringOnAStick: In the long run we are all dead. Yep, that’s true.