1,395 days after Trump won, voting begins again today with ballots dropping in North Carolina.
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) September 4, 2020
North Carolina sent out the mail-in absentee ballots starting on Friday.
It is important to get these in as quickly as possible for three reasons.
First, we can’t trust that the Post-Office delivery times will be typical. Early allows for shenanigans to be harmless.
Secondly, good campaigns will be monitoring the returned voter list. A well organized campaign will categorize every voter on two fundamental scales: A) Probability that a voter votes at all and B) Probability that the voter votes for me. A campaign will look at the list of people who have ballots still outstanding and target different segments with different messages and objectives. Early returns makes the campaign far more efficient as they’re not wasting persuasion or mobilization resources for a filled out ballot that is clipped to a fridge magnet and is just waiting to get mailed.
Finally, once a ballot is returned, it makes the voter information indifferent. A lot of people aren’t going to change their minds about their candidate choices. A small number of people may change their mind. However once the ballot is in the mail or in the drop-off box, new information is irrelevant. It makes watching TV a whole lot easier and again, if the campaign is efficient, it minimizes the mobilization direct mail you receive.
MomSense
I requested my mail in ballot and got an email confirmation with a tracking number. Thank dog for blue state Secretaries of State who want people to vote.
Baud
Wow. That’s early. Good. I’m hoping we can turn NC blue this year.
Cheryl Rofer
Have a plan.
After some dithering about a mail-in ballot, I have decided to vote early a few days after early voting starts. I’ve never encountered a crowd at early voting, and Santa Fe is enforcing masks and social distancing.
Early voting in New Mexico starts in mid-October. The Santa Fe New Mexican will tell me the exact day.
Matt McIrvin
Early voting is good; I did it in 2016 and 2018 on or near the first day of the in-person early-voting period, and the voting station at City Hall was always pretty much deserted. It’s likely there will be much more interest this year, but crowds are still unlikely.
I requested my mail ballot for the general election along with my ballot for the Sept. 1 state primary. I voted entirely by mail in the primary and it went pretty well–I used the state’s ballot-tracking site to determine delivery times, and it took 5 days to get to me and only 1 day to get back to the election office.
Since then, I’ve learned that there’s also a drop box set up at City Hall, so hand-delivering the mail ballot back is an option. In Massachusetts, this is functionally nearly identical to in-person early voting; it’s just a matter of whether you fill the ballot out at home or at the place–what they do with it afterward is essentially the same.
Juju
My mother and I got our absentee ballots in the mail on Saturday. They will go out a day or so after Labor Day. I don’t know if they have drop boxes in N.C. I’ve never seen any, but I think I’d prefer a drop box to USPS at this point. This is the first time I’ve ever voted absentee. I usually do early voting.
Another Scott
Excellent post.
Virginia early voting starts on Friday September 18. I don’t know yet if I’ll be voting the first day or soon thereafter – it will depend on the lines and the hours of our local facility. But we’ll almost certainly be voting in person and early.
Cheers,
Scott.
Joe Falco
In Georgia, there’s a website that lets you send in a ballot request electronically. It was put up at the end of August after the primary debacle. I requested mine last week and, with any luck, hope to have it before the end of September.
satby
Early voting in Indiana starts Tuesday, Oct. 6th. I’m planning /hoping my neighbor is able to come with me either that Thursday or Friday because I want to go before the lines start building later in the month.
Ken
I’m trying to decide which of these two XKCDs is most relevant here.
I applied for an Illinois mail-in ballot, but am now thinking I’ll do early voting (which requires either bringing in the ballot, or affirming that I have not received it).
geg6
Our ballots should be in the mail to us next week here in PA, I believe. We are filling them out immediately and have decided that, since I am now only going into the office two days a week, we have the freedom to drive down to the county courthouse and turn them in at the county election office. I have no idea what is happening with the drop box lawsuit, so we decided that this is the best plan. PA starts counting those at 7am on Election Day, so we will be among the first votes counted.
Another Scott
@Ken: Considering the history of all of humanity depends on the outcome of this election, the answer is:
Both!
Cheers,
Scott.
evap
I’m going back and forth between early voting and dropping off an absentee ballot. My 93 year old mother will vote absentee and I was planning to hand-deliver her ballot rather than trusting the mail, so I might as well drop mine off as well. On the other hand, I like the thrill of voting rather than filling out a form, and I think the in-person votes are likely to be counted quicker than the absentee ballots. I have a few weeks to decide…
West of the Cascades
This is the first time I’ve ever contemplated using a drop-box instead of mailing in my ballot (in Oregon). Ballots are mailed out to voters three weeks before Election Day, and that’s never been a problem before. Thanks DeJoy!
Barbara
@Another Scott: I will be voting on 9/18 for certain, regardless of length of line. Voter turn out in Northern VA was off the charts in 2017. Hope we can top it this year.
FYI: While driving through one of the reliable red parts of Eastern VA last week my husband was amazed that he saw not a single Trump sign. Not that it means he won’t get the majority of voters in those counties but it might signal potential turn out issues among certain constituencies.
Mousebumples
I requested mail ballots ages ago , here in Wisconsin . I’m planning to drop them off at the 24 hour Dropbox shortly after they arrive.
In Wisconsin, no ballots are counted or tallied before election day. Early in person and early mail/absentee both are removed from the envelopes and run through the counting machines on election day.
Makes sure you follow all the directions that come with your ballot and vote for all the races. My dad (poll worker for the August partisan primary) was in charge of most of the mail in ballot work for his polling location. Said a lot of voters just checked the “party” box at the top and didn’t pick any primary candidates. For a primary, that was a non vote.
I’ve never ticked the Democrat box on my ballot, mostly because I like to make sure I don’t accidentally miss any races (eg non partisan whatever). But also remember the terrible ballot layout of Miami – Dade in 2018. Be sure to find the races for governor, Senate, Us House, and state reps, where applicable. And, obviously, vote for Joe
edit – also, i believe that precincts can’t report any votes until all are counted. (eg Wisconsin judicial race in April , no results were released until the last possible day for postmarked ballots to arrive , 1 week after the election date) i know we want to be counted early , but it’s the small precincts with less mail in voting that will have counts released fastest and there isn’t much we can do about that – unless we get extra days for postmarked ballots to arrive across the country.
Ken
I chalk it up as another point for the theory that most of the campaign funds are going to grift operations.
Wag
This thread made me curious about when my state will mail out ballots. Colorado has all mail in elections, and will be mailing out ballots in mid-October. I was hoping to vote before then and get takes off mail lists. Oh well.
StringOnAStick
While driving away from Denver yesterday on Hwy 285 past a reliably red compound (always has big R signs every election), we saw the expected big tRump banner. Someone had painted “FUCK!” In big red letters on it. I know it’s illegal to deface political signs but I had to smile.
Jean
@Another Scott: Me too. Going to vote early at Chesterfield Registrar soon after the 18th. There are additional voting stations set up at local libraries, and I hear there will be some drop boxes. Thank you, Governor Northam.
hueyplong
@Cheryl Rofer: I’m in NC and I’m going to do early voting instead of mail. I’m going to watch my ballot go into the hole, and I want to increase the percentage of in person Dem votes contra Trump’s claims.
Will go the second day of in person early voting.
Some people on my street have helpfully posted in their yards the names of each person I will be voting against, and it’s worth noting the juxtapositon of a “Thank You Jesus” sign right next to a Trump one in a pair of yards.
Ohio Mom
Despite just receiving applications for absentee ballots in the mail (Ohio sent them to all registered voters), we are planning on early in-person voting. Seems the most likely way to be sure our votes get counted.
Why I have to be concerned that my vote gets counted is a source of distress but that is where we are, isn’t it?
I am still traumatized by the abruptly cancelled March primary. We eventually voted by mail but I will never get over how my plan to vote in person was pulled away at the last moment. I get that it was the beginning of the lockdown and no one could be sure there would be enough poll workers. But I was shocked how easily the governor could just shut down an election.
I will probably always vote early for here on. Which is ironic because I have mixed feelings about early voting. I’m not against it but I think that some early voting could be too early.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Apparently I’m on the permanent list to get mail in ballots after asking for one in the PA primary. I don’t want to vote provisional so I’ll stick with in person drop off of my ballot, unless it doesn’t arrive.
The primary ballots were significantly delayed but surely PA has their act together now and it’s early enough to get around DeJoy’s shenanigans, right? Right?
Barbara
@Ken: We saw signs in the Appalachian parts of the state when we drove through last week, but not in Eastern VA. I, however, keep getting mail and email solicitations and mail flyers. Can’t begin to imagine how I made it onto their mailing lists.
yellowdog
Please vote in person or use a drop box. If you think ballots will only be delayed you are being naive. Hundreds of thousands of ballots will be ‘lost’ like the sacks of mail dropped from a U-haul truck that I read about yesterday.
evap
@Ohio Mom: I also have mixed feelings about early voting. What happens if Trump (or some other candidate) drops dead once early voting has started?
eclare
@Cheryl Rofer: That is what I’m doing. Plus TN makes it difficult to vote by mail.
hueyplong
@evap: As far as I’m concerned, there is no bad scenario that starts with “if Trump drops dead….”
Had he done so in January, there is a pretty good chance that more than 100k Americans would now be alive instead of dead.
I’m giving Pence too much credit, but he couldn’t possibly do worse than Trump.
O. Felix Culpa
@Cheryl Rofer: I’m voting early in person too. We need to be able to tally as many Biden ballots across the country on voting day as possible.
Ken
Parties?
As I recall from previous discussions, in theory this is one of the good things about the EC – we’re voting for electors, so they’ll just vote for whatever substitute the party names. That’s never been tested, though.
For downballot races there is both mechanism and precedent. If the dead candidate wins, the seat becomes open when the new Congress is sworn in, and the state’s laws for filling such seats are used. For example in the 2000 Missouri Senate race, the governor of the state announced who he would appoint if the dead candidate won (which happened).
Another Scott
@evap: There are laws and rules to cover such things. What-ifing is counter-productive. Vote early, by whatever means available.
Cheers,
Scott.
PST
One more for early in person. The first day here in Chicago is September 24, if I recall correctly. There is no list of locations yet, so I don’t have every detail of my plan down, but I’ve always been able to walk if I wanted to. Then I’ll be free, at least in theory, to poll watch or otherwise help out in Ohio or Wisconsin. Ohio is where my wife and I grew up, and we were there in 2016, but I can’t relish the idea of knocking on doors this year. We’re still thinking about what to do.
cmorenc
I am in Raleigh, NC and plan to vote in-person early. I know I’ll be around for the early voting dates, because on 9/25 having L knee replacement. I might use curbside voting, but this election is important enough that I’ll wait in line holding on to my walker (I only need that during the first 6 weeks of rehab – already did the R knee in 2016, so I know what I’m getting into). As with last time around, I will very quickly kick the opiods (4th day home from hospital last time) and this time it isn’t my driving knee – so I should be ok to go to the polls.
H.E.Wolf
Electoral Vote blog has posted a chart of absentee ballot procedures, by state:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Sep07.html#item-8
evap
@cmorenc: In Georgia, if you are disabled or over 70, you can go to the front of the line during in-person voting. So if you show up with walker, you wouldn’t have to wait.
Another Scott
@H.E.Wolf: There are lots and lots of great resources out there now. Even a simple google search will often bring up an excellent summary at the top of the first page of results.
Another great resource is the League of Women Voters https://www.vote411.org/ site.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@evap: As a general rule for living, you should not be guided by the possibility of outlier events. Like people who don’t wear seat belts because of that one in a million freak crash where someone survived only because they weren’t wearing seat belts. But seriously, if in-person voting is simple and reliable, then I wouldn’t feel compelled to vote early. I volunteered this year to be a poll worker and will likely be assigned to a different precinct so I was encouraged to vote early.
Another Scott
:-/
Be careful out there. Vote early!
Cheers,
Scott.
kindness
People are saying Trump is going to declare himself to have won when the physical polls close election day. This is based on some notion that in person voters are going to trend Republican. This might be true in many areas but not most so I don’t really accept the premise. Uncle Joe will win the vote in person counts as well as the mail in. I know too many Republicans who aren’t voting for Trump and are voting for Biden. One told me Biden isn’t Hillary. One of my BernieBro peeps said the same thing.
It won’t matter. Trump has already declared victory and is going to keep doing so till the day he is dragged out of the White House and even then some.
Libbys Person
The Durham NC BOE is planning to set up a tent in their parking lot where people can drop off their absentee ballots. That’s how my husband and I are going to vote. I’m grateful for this outdoor option since I have to be extra paranoid about avoiding COVID exposure. (But of course I was going to vote one way or another, no matter what!). NC counts early-arriving absentee ballots before Election Day and you can check to make sure your absentee ballot got counted. Durham County is also setting up more Early Voting sites than ever before, where any problems with absentee ballots or registration can be fixed and you can vote right then. We also use the good scannable paper ballots. Our Legislature is still despicable, but with our good Dem Governor and AG, I trust the election process, especially in deep Blue Durham!
(WaterGirl: I removed the ‘ from my Nym to make WordPress happy. Thanks for your help!)
frosty
No early voting in PA so I’ll be voting in person on Election Day just like every other year. I don’t want my vote to be counted later on in the week.
Mask of course and the polling place is a former gym so pretty spacious and safe enough.
zhena gogolia
I don’t know what to do. Connecticut does not have early voting. This year they have made it possible to use Covid as a reason to request an absentee ballot. You can request one now. I did this for the primary, but it was really down to the wire — the ballot didn’t come until right before the election, and I know people for whom it didn’t come in time even to take it to the drop box. I would apply for one and decide later, but I thought someone here said they might give me a hard time if I applied for it and then tried to vote in person. CT is doing well in terms of infection rate, and our part of the state was never a particular hot spot, so my husband and I were just going to mask up and go in person on election day. We vote in a middle-school gym, we can go mid-morning or mid-afternoon, and it’s never too crowded. What is the right thing to do?
Sab
@Ohio Mom: Our applications for absentee ballots came.
Weirdly too, so did one for my father. I put on a change of mailing address to my house for him when I put him in the nursing home. Apparently the Sec of State pr Board of elections changed his voting address automatically. Which is wrong, since he doesn’t live here and never has.
Sec of State sent one of those purge queries last summer which I ignored. I figured they would drop if no response. But apparently not. Very fishy, but not surprising since Dad’s registered a Republican.
WaterGirl
@Libbys Person: WordPress thanks you. :-)
And I’m happy to see you back posting here.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Added to the resources part of the What We Can Do list. thanks!
Sab
@evap: If Trump were to drop dead I sure as hell wouldn’t vote for Pence or any Republican. I’d be fine with Harris. Frankly I am more concerned about me getting Covid and missing my chance to vote if I wait until November.
Yutsano
@zhena gogolia: The only advice I can give you is to do what you feel is safest for you both. If you’re masked up and it’s not too crowded then feel free to go vote. If it’s too crowded then I would say go with your conscience here. But Connecticut will go for Joe.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: I just checked, and that one is already on the list, yay!
frosty
@zhena gogolia: Same situation here. Same kind of polling place. Go in person mid-day.
HinTN
@eclare: Fifteen calendar days if early voting start on 14 October. I plan to be there the first day. It will not matter for the presidential, I doubt it will matter for the senatorial (although I can hope), but I think we have a real chance in the 4th Congressional District
ETA – of course I’ll vote in the TN House and Senate races but I don’t hold out much hope for sending the “Pistol Packing Mama” packing.
zhena gogolia
@frosty: Yes, I think that’s what I’ll do.
eclare
@HinTN: Thanks! The Shelby Co Board doesn’t have the dates up yet. Agree with your conclusions, at least I’m in the 9th CD, so I get to vote for Cohen.
Steeplejack
I think I will vote early in person, maybe Monday the 21st or Tuesday the 22nd. I can vote at the Fairfax County (VA) Government Center, but the other early-voting locations won’t open until October 14. It’s not a bad drive for a gentleman of leisure, and there’s a pretty good Mexican restaurant nearby that I can hit for takeout on the way home.
Just checked my voter registration, and I’m good on that front.
And the Government Center is sort of an undiscovered gem, like the country club of DMVs. I had to do something license-tag-related in person a few years ago and ended up going there. (Can’t remember why.) Short, quick lines—boom, in and out. I think people look up stand-alone DMV offices and overlook the fact that they do it there. I’m sure it will be busier for voting, but hopefully not bad.
O. Felix Culpa
@evap: How would that change your vote?
Uncle Cosmo
And you would be wrong, unless they are remarkably obtuse grifters**: The national campaign charges $50 per lawn sign (cost to produce <$0.50), the locals get volunteers to attach them to these wire stands they use nowadays***, & send them out with a guy with a van to deliver them (& maybe stick them into the lawn if he has time & the wife is a MILF). Easy-peesy money!
** Which they might well be.
***In the fall of 1988 I spent an evening at MD Democratic Party HQ in Baltimore stapling lawn signs to the wooden stakes we used then, working with a young feller who IIRC had just left Sen Mikulski’s office to become an Assistant States Attorney for Baltimore City. The two notable facts from that evening:
(1) Driving down I heard on the radio “The Mike Dukakis 900 Hot Line,” in which an imitator said “I want to do to you what I did to Massachusetts.” (It was really funny & I LOL’d – who sez Dems can’t laugh at themselves?)
(2) My partner in sign assemblage was one Martin O’Malley – I knew him from the Irish music scene but it was the first time we ever did anything political together.
Good memories, even though the election worked out not necessarily to the Democrats’ advantage…
Ben Cisco
In Alabama, you have to certify that you’ll be out of the county on Election Day, so I’ll be voting in person. I just moved so it’ll be my first time at this particular location. I’m not expecting any problems, but I will be prepared. Mama Cisco is an elections official in her home county (over 30 years!), and she has decided to work that day despite the COVID-19 risk.
CCL
@zhena gogolia: @frosty:
If you can vote in person, that’s probably best. In this state, if you vote in person and just happen to mess up your ballot, you can have it voided and get a new ballot to ensure your vote is counted.
If you vote absentee by mail and forget to sign the inner envelope or stuff your ballot into your partner’s inner envelope (etc.), your ballot is rejected and since you are not there in person, no chance to recoup.
Steeplejack
@Ben Cisco:
Brava, Mama Cisco!
Yutsano
@Ben Cisco: May the Prophets watch over the mother of the Emissary and keep her safe in these troubled times
Ben Cisco
@Steeplejack: @Yutsano: Thanks to you both.
Also, since we’re 58 comments in and no one else noticed, obligatory.
Zelma
I’m in New Jersey. We have vote by mail and the rule has been that if you apply for a mail-in ballot, you will receive a ballot in the mail for all future elections. Since the recent primary was all vote-by-mail, I’m not sure what this implies. Will everybody now receive a mail-in-ballot. There seems to be some confusion. I will probably vote in person if I can. The polling place is never crowded and is a large gym. Plus I know all the poll workers and can usually steal some of the goodies. I’ve worked the polls in the past but can’t this year because I’m on the ballot.
We had an interesting situation at the last election. A goodly number of Republicans, having taken Trump’s warnings to heart, showed up at the polls and insisted on voting in person. They all had to use provisional ballots. I should remark that the average age of voters in Avalon is about 70!
My presidential vote doesn’t matter much given New Jersey. But I really want to get that bastard Van Drew out of Congress. Interestingly, a recent poll showed it to be quite close.
MazeDancer
Going to illustrate all the Voting Plans!
Normally, I would have announced if you post your plan, will illustrate. But missed this thread, apologies. And not going to make you all post again. And, perhaps, I have spammed enough threads, you just assume that will happen.
But, if you do not want yours illustrated, just let me know. Click on my nym to contact. Or bow out by replying to this.
Or, once it’s posted, if you prefer not to have it tweeted to inspire others, will remove.
MazeDancer
@zhena gogolia:
Doesn’t sound too different from Upstate NY.
If you feel safe, go ahead and vote in person. What I intend to do,
But CT is not in jeopardy of going for Trump, So don’t risk anything, if you’re worried.
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer:
Well, I’ve never failed to vote in a presidential election, and I’m not about to start now. So I’ll do it one way or another. I know my vote isn’t as important as those of the citizens of Wyoming, but it’s important to me :)
Jesse
@StringOnAStick: It’s illegal to deface political signs? That news to me. I mean, defacing pretty much any advertisement might be a kind of minor crime, I suppose, but it sounds like you mean something more serious.
J R in WV
We’ll be doing early vote in person, a couple of days after it starts. We need to do some other business at the court house (taxes) and there was no line when we did that for the primary. WV may go for Trump again, plenty of deplorables here now, but we’re gonna vote for sure anyway, haven’t ever missed an election with candidates yet.
Will confess to missing a levy election once, they held it on a Saturday I had planned a trip, but I knew it was going to pass, VFD/EMT always passes. So do the library and school levies!
Catherine D.
I’m torn. New York only has one week of early voting (at least in my county.) So if I’m in isolation by the start of the week, it’s too late to get an absentee ballot.
Ruckus
As I’ve stated before I’ve been a permeant mail voter in CA for a very long time. Since CA started early voting I’ve dropped my ballot off at a drop off box. Last vote I took it to the city library but there were 4 drop off locations within easy walking distance.
I recommend that if possible, drop it off into a ballot box, rather than the mail. Right to the source and no need to worry about possible problems or late delivery.
Also I’d bet that many/most of us already know who we are going to vote for so there is no real reason to wait till election day if early is allowed. Also gives time to check that your vote was received, which CA does, and I’d imagine most states do. I’d suggest that if your state only votes on election day that one should join/follow the vote watching group that exist in a lot of states. Make sure they do their job and do it by the law.
Ruckus
@hueyplong:
I haven’t seen any trump signs or bumperstickers around here in socal but I imagine some exist. shitforbrains will get some votes in CA although I’d guess the percentage is not huge. But then devin mad cow nunes is from CA so stranger things have happened.
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
I’m in SW Riverside County and the only signs & bumperstickers out here are Trump. Some of them are quite large.
My mostly apolitical sister was worried that there were no Biden signs, no Biden ads on TV. I assured her that we will win California by a very large margin.
Maybe we could have a thread where people report what they’re seeing in their locales.
MazeDancer
@Catherine D.:
NY has very low transmission rates now. And, yes, terrible mail-in voting.
Though your ballot will, eventually, get counted as long as you follow instructions. Many didn’t in the primary.
But Trump ain’t carrying NY. So, go ahead and vote absentee if you’re concerned.
Ken
@Ruckus: It should be remembered that Trump got more votes in New York City than in all of Montana, and more votes in California than in Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and both Dakotas combined.
StringOnAStick
@Jesse: It is illegal to tamper with, deface or destroy political signs, and I think doing so on someone’s private property is considered vandalism.
MazeDancer
@Ken:
Have never seen than statistic before. Feel like it should be quoted early and often.
Will credit you when I do.
Another Scott
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Speaking of DeJoy –
Why it’s almost as if (Democratic Representative) Cooper, and presumably many, many others, knew what DeJoy was doing before asking him the question.
And it makes one wonder why and how DeJoy got appointed to head the USPS in the first place, doesn’t it?
So many questions…
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Ken:
It should also be remembered that LA county alone has a larger population than 42 states. That we have had 3 1/2 yrs of a massive, visible, psychological breakdown by that same person they voted for. A person would almost have to be insane themselves to not see that. That we had a rather large change in voting decisions in 2018 and that since then we’ve had a lot more visible decline in the person they voted for. Will it be a walk? I doubt it and we shouldn’t think that it will be, but this isn’t 2016 and almost every shitforbrains attack on our candidate has failed massively, except in hardcore circles.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
People do forget that CA has a very large population and there are a number of rethuglican areas. I mean devin cow nunes is a member of the house from the Fresno area. They should also remember that Orange county has a population over 3 million and has been a republican strong hold but no longer is, voted for that woman in 2016. Riverside county is less than 2 1/2 million and registered voters republicans lead by only 4%.
While the republican support is loud, it seems to be not all that thick in a lot of places that have been republican before.
Catherine D.
@MazeDancer: My vote counts more locally: ditch the odious Tom Reed from the house and our crappy R state senator.
ETA; And I live in Ithaca, probably about to be locked down again soon because of state campus guidelines.