ActBlue is reporting that liberals and Democrats have raised at least $100 million dollars in hard money, coordination eligible funds since Friday night.
Small-dollar donors have now given $100 million on ActBlue since 8 p.m. ET Friday, investing in candidates up and down the ballot and orgs on the front lines of the impending judicial confirmation fight. The grassroots is ready to fight to honor Justice Ginsburg’s legacy.
— ActBlue (@actblue) September 20, 2020
The play for Democrats is to bring an extraordinarily rationale fear of massive electoral retribution on Republican Senators who are in tight races if they vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee before election day and then incredible political and structural retribution if there is a nominee confirmed before Inauguration Day. The money being raised right now makes both the electoral and structural threats more credible. Democrats in order to admit states and expand the Supreme Court need to start the session with at least 51 Senators to accommodate the probability that Sen. Manchin (D-WV) votes against the rules that drop the filibuster. Larger majorities makes rule and structural changes easier to implement.
Senator Murkowski (R-AK) who is not up for re-election until 2022 has come out with a statement that she will not vote to confirm a nominee before the election. This removes one golden ticket for Republican incumbents who are in tough races and would like to be able to vote no and hope yes in an attempt to save their seat. Other Republican senators have been mealy mouthed.
It is critical for Democrats to come out of the election with a Senate majority able to credibly threaten to retaliate with significant structural changes for any lame duck confirmation.
So we need to be strategic. Democrats need to win a net of three seats. Senator Jones (D-AL) is likely to lose re-election as he is running against a Republican who is not banned from a mall in one of the deepest red states in the country. So that means Democrats need to win at least 4 seats. Looking at recent polls (mainly NY Times/Sienna, Seltzer and a few others with high ratings) and glancing at a few of the projection systems, I would guess that the lay of the land looks like the following:
| State | Republican Seat Defender | Democratic Challenger | Current Status |
| AZ | Martha McSally | Mark Kelly | Dem Big Lead |
| ME | Susan Collins | Sarah Gideon | Dem Medium Lead |
| CO | Cory Gardner | John Hickenlooper | Dem Medium Lead |
| NC | Thom Tillis | Cal Cunningham | Dem Small Lead |
| MT | Steve Daines | Steve Bullock | Toss-up |
| IA | Jodi Ernst | Theresa Greenfield | Toss-up |
| SC | Lindsay Graham | Jaime Harrison | Toss-up |
| KS | Roger Marshall | Barbara Bollier | GOP Medium Lead |
| TX | John Coryn | MJ Hegar | GOP BIG LEAd |
| KY | Mitch McConnell | Amy McGrath | GOP Big Lead |
I may be off by a little bit with a few of the seats, but Texas and Kentucky are marginal probabilities of flipping and strategically low to very low value on investment at this time. Mississippi has a higher probability at 538 of flipping Blue than Kentucky.
I’m circling back to the ACA repeal fight and a post I had right after the House got the AHCA out with a bare majority:
In a previous thread, a troll was FIRST!! with the advice to “Just quit, we lost this fight in November”
I reject that.
We aren’t going to win often but we get to choose how to lose. We can roll over without trying to defend our values and our morals or we can fight as hard as we can to either get a policy win or inflict significant political costs on Republicans to increase the probability of future policy wins by either putting the fear of losing their seats into them which constrains future opportunity space or flipping those seats in 2018.
And then hours after the Skinny Repeal billed failed:
We won last night…
You did it. We did it…
We told our stories, we made our phone calls even though we were told that they would not matter, we consoled each other and picked each other. We kept on banging knowing that the odds were not great in our favor, but our values, our morals, our sense of self would not allow ourselves to rest without trying as hard as possible. Some days I could not do much more, but I knew that you and millions of other decent people who worried about their lives, families, friends and communities would bang the drum for me and I would bang the drum for someone who need a respite day later on.
We kept on going. We did not know if we would win, just that we could either win a policy and political victory that protected ourselves and our vision of an America where we are in this together or at least inflict massive political costs against a vision of America that is cruel, cold and atomistic
The ACA repeal bills needed three Republicans to do not-Republican things. The SCOTUS fight needs four Republicans to go against their caucus. This is a big challenge. The most likely outcome is the infliction of massive political costs to flip the Senate and gain an in-party consensus that systemic structural reform is needed and needed fast. And for that outcome to occur, we need to be smart about how we use our resources. Focus on the winnable instead of the enjoyable fantasies.
Open Thread: Joe Biden Live in Philadelphia
pat
So after giving Biden lots of money already, plus $20 a week until the election, the email that just landed has as a title “I have no choice but to ask you for $300.”
Oh, and it came from Joseph R. Biden.
I am getting a bit tired of the emails. Thankfully most of them land in my spam folder and can be disposed of as a group.
Wyatt Salamanca
h/t https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1307374868229390337
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I believe King has also said he opposes eliminating the filibuster.
MazeDancer
Mike Espy is within 5 of his horrid opponent in MS.
Better shot than McGrath. Wish he had some of her $$$.
Mowgli
Shock and awe may help, hard to say how susceptible the “fear of reprisal” approach will be these days, as McTurtle has demonstrated repeatedly that American voters are highly inconsistent at using their power to influence Congress.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MazeDancer: I was just going to go looking for the tweets about Espy. I wonder if the O’Bros will add him to the beneficiaries of their “Get Mitch or Die Trying” millions.
Yutsano
@MazeDancer: Send DougJ an e-mail. Let’s get his ActBlue some love.
wmd
The hatred of McConnell guarantees that money will keep flowing to McGrath. I’m tempted… Still will concentrate on toss up and lean Dem races .
pat
@Wyatt Salamanca:
I don’t understand why the election officials didn’t call the cops. Yes, the “protesters” have the right to stand a certain distance away (100 feet?) but certainly they do not have the right to intimidate, and that is what they are there for isn’t it.
eta: I read about this earlier and did not see that they were actually blocking the entrance. Could not access the twitter posted.
Baud
@pat:
if it’s the video I saw earlier, it’s really lame.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@pat: if you follow the thread, Tilghman says the broke up when extra “security” arrived, which strikes me as odd wording. If it was the local cops, wouldn’t he have said that? I’ve looked at a couple other tweets and haven’t seen clarification, but I think municipal cops are a pretty damn trumpy bunch. I think they’d be slow to respond to such a call
SC54HI
Donation strategery question: if I can only afford to give $100-200 for the Senate races, is it better to donate a lump sum to only one or two races, at most, or would smaller donations of $25 to a number of the D, Leans D & toss-up races be of value?
Thanks!
randy khan
We did our bit last night. It will be interesting to see what the weekend total looks like.
scav
Another benefit I can think of is even the faltering lonely neuron rattling in the orange husk can distinguish between $100 million plus and a swamped boat parade. Under pressure isn’t his best look and he’s (they’re!) deep enough to add in nitrogen narcosis.
MazeDancer
@SC54HI:
You can’t go wrong in donating, Do whatever you please
But right now the big names have got a lot of $$. So give where it is needed.
If I had $200, would give:
$75 to Greenfield, $75 to Harrison, and $50 to a longer shot, Espy or Jones, because they’re fighters and deserve it.
Wyatt Salamanca
@pat: @Baud: @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I think this incident is a microcosm of what we’ll see on Election Day and afterwards. Trump is the scum of the Earth and his supporters are every damn bit as scummy as he is.
The next 4 years will be a long hard slog.
Feathers
@wmd: I keep hearing from the usual suspects that the guy McGrath beat in the primary could have taken out McConnell, if the DNC hadn’t flooded money to McGrath to defeat him.
I must confess to not following this closely at the time. Is this more rose nonsense, or did we miss out on a good candidate?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Wyatt Salamanca: there will be long guns
MazeDancer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Cannot find a list of their Senators. Went to their site, couldn’t find. But they talk about 13 Senators. Don’t know if Espy or Jones made the cut.
SiubhanDuinne
@SC54HI:
I’m sure a great argument can be made for the larger lump sum to one or two candidates, but I always donate to many campaigns in small increments, usually several times during an election season.
My reasoning is that while the money itself is obviously important, there are individual GOP donors who can and do part with huge amounts without even noticing. Equally important (or at least almost as) is the count of unique donors to our candidates. If I were a candidate, I’d a hell of a lot rather have 20 donors send me $5 each than have one person write a check for $100. Each donation translates into a likely vote. Heartening to our folks, worrying for the opposition.
At least, that’s how I rationalise my numerous, but small, campaign contributions.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Feathers:
the former
it’s freakin’ Kentucky, Steve Beshear– son of a popular ex-governor and very ‘moderate’ barely beat a very unpopular incumbent
Soprano2
This is off topic, but I was at my local Walmart yesterday and saw that they have removed all of the Covid restrictions. No more “shop this way” signs (hardly anyone was following that here anyway), no more long way around to go in the only open door, no more separation between in and out doors, no more counting people. Our checker said they did that Wednesday. All that’s left are the masks, which is a local ordinance. Anyone else have this happen where they live?
WaterGirl
@pat: If you don’t want to receive the donation requests, it’s pointless to get mad at them for asking. Unsubscribe. The link is at the bottom of every message.
BR
@Pinboard has made some good lists of local races to donate to, where you might get the most bang for the buck — wonder if it could be front-paged for a fundraising drive:
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
Yeah, even I wouldn’t be intimidated by that.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I am doing that ruthlessly. And texting “Stop” to all my texts. I am paying attention. I don’t need 9000 reminders a day.
pat
@WaterGirl:
I’m not mad so much as annoyed and wondering if they really think I alone can save them. And most of the time the messages are in “OMG without you we are toast” mode. In other words, sounding the alarm…
I just ignore them. But with the recent news of massive donations coming into ActBlue it did seem a bit overblown.
WaterGirl
@Feathers: I have no idea. But I am reminded of my partner decades ago, who had recently installed our new tub surround in the bathroom.
Even so, I was still looking at tub surrounds when we were in stores, and I found one that I liked so much better than the one we got. The response was sharp and clear:
“Stop shopping for tub surrounds. The tub surround is already installed. It does not matter. We cannot go back in time.”
Baud
@pat:
It’s a preprogrammed mass email. There’s no one in the office this weekend personally sending these things out to individual donors.
AndyG
Here’s Sam Wang’s list of Senate races where your cash has the most impact:
https://election.princeton.edu/senate-race-voter-powers-by-state/
and method:
https://election.princeton.edu/election-tracking-2020-u-s-senate/
at the moment, the top four are MT, KS, AK and SC
Sister Golden Bear
FWIW, I created a separate Gmail address just for political/charitable donations. Yes, it’s clogged with money begs, but I also don’t look at it often (I think the only times I’ve really checked was to find out the shipping status of stuff I ordered from the Joe Store.)
Splitting Image
I would add Ossoff in Georgia to the list, as it is currently a toss-up. The other seat ought to be an easier win against the corrupt Loeffler, but the jungle primary makes it harder to predict.
Democratic voters should also look ahead to 2022. There are some potential pickups there as well as some seats the party can lose if they are not careful. A big win this year means that the Democrats can play offense against Rubio in Florida, Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Johnson in Wisconsin. Coming up short would make those guys feel a lot more secure about their chances next time out.
cs
Here in Kansas, I’d call the Bollier – Marshall Senate race a toss-up. Or at least “toss-up adjacent”. Last polling done was in mid-August, with a 2 point lead for Marshall. Poll right before that one was a 1 point lead for Marshall. She’s doing well.
Our polls for President are also interesting, at least by Kansas standards. Trump’s only got a 7 point lead and he’s below 50%. I’m not expecting Trump to lose here, but hopeful that win will stay in the single digits.
WaterGirl
@SC54HI: For that amount of money, I would say two things.
Born and raised or have family in North Carolina? Or your best vacation ever was in NC? DougJ’s Flip NC thermometer lets you split your money between several candidates because Dems are close to having enough seats to turn the NC legislature blue. That helps with redistricting.
Care about Texas because you think that’s important? Flip Texas is similar.
$200 by itself makes no different to Biden. $200 for a state race, could make a real difference.
But if your heart warms because Kamala is a woman, or black, or whatever, that’s good, too.
Generally speaking, I love Dave’s strategic giving idea. For the amount, spend based on your heartstrings. My two cents.
WaterGirl
The link to all the BJ thermometers.
You can also find that at any time in the blue box, top right, or in the hamburger on mobile.
dnfree
@Soprano2: I live in northern Illinois (outlying suburb of Chicago) and I noticed this week that the floor arrows were gone in two grocery stores. One of them had a convoluted single line for checkout previously, and this time you could approach individual checkout lines as normal. I haven’t been to Walmart to see if they have relaxed their entrance process here.
Masks are still required and people I see are complying. I used to see a couple of people who pulled their masks down after they were in the store but I haven’t seen that recently.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Me, too.
I write this in the line where they ask you why (if email, not text):
Eljai
@MazeDancer: I just made a small donation to Espy. If I recall correctly, his opponent had a huge lead a few short months ago. So if Espy is within 5 points now, maybe there’s hope!
WaterGirl
@AndyG:
Steve Bullock, Montana Senate
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Eljai: at the very least: Make them earn it, and maybe a strong showing by Espy will boost turn out for down-ticket Dems. I have no idea what the MS electorate looks like.
WaterGirl
@AndyG:
Barbara Bollier, Kansas Senate
Another Scott
Crush my fantasies, will you???!!1 You’re no fun.
But you’re a very smart man. I hope the DSCC, DCCC, and DLCC are listening to you.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Eljai: Also, every dollar that the GOP needs to spend in what used to be sure things is money they can’t spend elsewhere.
WaterGirl
@AndyG:
Alan Gross, Alaska Senate
WaterGirl
@AndyG:
Jaime Harrison, South Carolina Senate
WaterGirl
@Splitting Image:
Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate (regular election)
Baud
@Eljai:
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
IIRC, there are so many black voters in MS that we only need to increase the white vote for Dems by some pathetically low amount to win. Of course, that’s easier said than done in MS.
Mousebumples
@AndyG: re Sam Wang Espy’s MS race doesn’t seem to be listed?
SiubhanDuinne
@Soprano2:
The last time I was in Publix — Wednesday, I think — I noticed they had removed all the “one-way” aisle signs. I had always scrupulously followed them, but very few others did. I guess the store finally said fuck it, and peeled all the arrows and “Do Not Enter” signs off the floor.
ETA: They still enforce mask-wearing and six-foot spacing in checkout lines, and they remain vigilant about wiping down carts after each use.
MazeDancer
@Eljai: Yay, you!
Espy published his own internals showing he is within 5.
Is he a long shot? Yes.
But though we know MS is going to do everything they can to suppress the vote, we have no idea what the Black turnout is going to be. And money can help GOTV.
WaterGirl
BJ calendars for some of Dave’s suggestions:
Cal Cunningham, North Carolina Senate
Theresa Greenfield, Iowa Senate
Another Scott
That’s amazingly cogent.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Sloane Ranger
@Soprano2: It’s happened at my local Morrisons here in the UK as well. The one way system, the separate doors to enter and leave and the single queue with outlines of 2 pairs of shoes on the floor and a request to stand on the outlines and respect social distancing have all gone. Most people are still following mask wearing guidelines but some aren’t and the shop is not enforcing it. Hence my outburst earlier this week.
Baud
@Another Scott: It’s why the GOP is as strong as it is.
Leto
@Soprano2: My local grocery got rid of that (one way aisles, single entry/exit) a while back. I miss it because military commissaries do this and it’s really nice. But civilians like the anarchy so here we are.
WaterGirl
@Leto:
Soprano2
So, it’s a trend to get rid of this stuff. Maybe they decided it was too much trouble or was costing too much. Or perhaps the CDC issued new guidance.
MazeDancer
In his Million Dollar thread – yay, Doug! Yay BJ! – Doug says an Espy thermometer will be happening in the 2nd mil.
Redshift
@Sister Golden Bear:
I so wish I had done that years ago. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to stop the torrent of fundraising emails now.
But yeah, don’t pay any attention to the message in a fundraising email. They’re just trying to hit on something that will get a response, not telling you their real situation.
pajaro
David,
I think you’ve undersold Dems in Iowa and Kansas. In Iowa, Greenfield has been ahead, but within the margin of error, in most polling; in Kansas, just about the only poll that I’ve found has Marshall only slightly ahead.
SC54HI
Thank you all. Good suggestions, and I think I’ll go with smaller donations to more candidates..
Redshift
The one-way aisles never seemed to work around here, I think because you need to be looking down to track them, and that’s not where anyone is looking in a store. I had trouble remembering to follow them, and I’m not intending to ignore any pandemic procedures.
I get the sense that some of the restrictions were dropped after stores installed plexiglass around cashiers and stuff, because the risk to workers who were there all day was always greater than our chance encounters with other customers.
Kathleen
@Eljai: I just donated today as well.
zhena gogolia
@Soprano2:
CDC, you must be joking.
Bill Arnold
@Soprano2:
Masks are my line in the sand. (And distancing while queueing; walked out of a grocery store today because the queues were too tight.)
This is NYState, in a county where the new infections/active infections rates are low enough that it is unlikely that one or more infected person is in a smaller store. If community spread is high, other measures need to be in place as well.
Kathleen
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: And that wouldn’t have happened if Bevins hadn’t screwed the teachers, That’s what galvanized Kentucky voters for Beshear.
Bill Arnold
@Omnes Omnibus:
I let the Trump campaign emails through, just to feel their desperation every day.
zhena gogolia
I have no idea who this guy is, but he’s right.
Bill Arnold
@BR:
@Pinboard is worth following. Smart commentary as well.
Bill Arnold
@Sister Golden Bear:
Yes, absolutely, free gmail accounts are great and easy. But make sure you keep track of which one is logged into; google tracking will assume that you’re that one.
Kathleen
Off topic but spontaneous demonstration occurred near Moscow Mitch’s place yesterday:
Outside of @senatemajldr house right now. Crowd getting bigger. LMPD trying to keep people on sidewalks. Joel Willett (@realJoelWillett) September 19, 2020
Here’s link to tweet if you want to see video:
https://twitter.com/realJoelWillett/status/1307364144316907521
NoraLenderbee
@pajaro: Most recent KS poll I’ve found is from early August: Bollier 44 to Marshall 46. Nancy Kassebaum endorsed Bollier just a few days ago. Gee, I did not realize Bollier used to be an R.
Jinchi
I’m an optimist and I believe Jones is going to surprise us all again.
Still let’s wrack up the numbers. 10 new Democrats in November!
Mousebumples
You can also set up filters and auto forwarding. I have about 4 emails running into 1 account. And I can email out from any of those accounts without needing to change my logged in account.
WaterGirl
@Jinchi: It may be crazy, but I think Senator Jones will win also.
evodevo
@Soprano2: Same here in Ky – no clue…it was one entrance/exit only up until the middle of the week, and then all of a sudden, it was gone…masks are still mandatory, since that is a statewide rule, but the blocked entrances are no more…
cs
@NoraLenderbee: There were a handful of legislators who switched parties and / or retired because of Brownback, and to a lesser degree because of Trump.
Kansas used to have a decent number of moderate R’s in the legislature. Even after they were nearly extinct on the national level. But the primaries this year have made them all but extinct in this state too.
Bnad
Calling for no vote before the election is meaningless. it’s basically the same as calling for a lame duck confirmation which is exactly what these vulnerable senators would like.
Repatriated
@Bnad: Except a lame-duck confirmation becomes justification for court-packing.
Pre-election is an excercise of raw political power. Lame-duck is an exercise in illegitimate raw political power.
jnfr
@WaterGirl:
I unsubscribe relentlessly. It really works. They sign me up with the next donation, but I just unsub again.
Matt McIrvin
Fear of electoral retribution, I dunno. To me it feels more like “at this point, we’re going to whoop your ass no matter what you do.”
Matt McIrvin
@Redshift: The workers are the people least likely to be wearing masks properly, though (no surprise since they have to wear them all day, which must be uncomfortable, and they keep slipping and such). That’s gotten better over time.
One of the things that’s gotten increasingly clear from the medical literature is that masks are more important and work better than anyone really had a right to expect, and some of the surface-sanitization stuff is probably not necessary. The things to do get clearer as time goes on, not to say that people really do them.
Matt McIrvin
The thing I hate about the money begs is that it’s the campaign officially being ridiculously negative about itself–they always emphasize the worst outlier polls they can find. To me it’s not a good look, but I guess they’ve determined empirically that that brings in the bucks. I wonder about the side effect of telling your most devoted followers that you’re perpetually losing, though.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: Massachusetts lifted the reduced occupancy limits on supermarkets a while ago, and the local Market Basket immediately stopped controlling the flow of people through the door, so there’s no queue to get in any more. But the crowds still seem light, so it’s not a huge deal.
There are still one-way signs (infrequently followed) and six-foot lines to stand on for the queue at the cashiers, and masks are still required and pretty much universally worn (it seems to me compliance has actually improved). I don’t think the one-way signs really do anything because people still push past each other in the aisles
(The situation here is not great, though–I think there’s a need for tighter controls again.)
Ian
@Feathers:
I thought he was a better progressive than McGrath. Being able to beat McConnell in Kentucky? No evidence I have seen indicates this.
Ian
@Repatriated:
I would call the political power illegitimate either way, due to it being gained in a manner that was not consistent with the values of democracy.
Just curious, how do you feel about the law that allows gay men and women to serve openly in the military?
Not all lame duck legislation is bad. One could argue that the lame duck sessions allow retiring/ leaving legislators to vote the way they desire, rather than subject to political pressure and popular opinion
Inspectrix
I really appreciate this post and comments. I was contemplating my donation options today and this info helped me move from contemplation to payment. Now on to text banking and get out the vote calls.
My kid helped put a Biden-Harris sticker on top of our social justice montage yard sign tonight. We can do this.
Chris Sherbak
@MazeDancer: Here’s the (recently updated) list from the ActBlue page:
Here are the top Senate races where we believe your donation can make the biggest difference (in no particular order):
– Colorado
– Maine
– North Carolina
– Montana
– Iowa
– Georgia (both seats!)
– Alabama
– Michigan
– Alaska
– South Carolina
– Texas
– Kansas
– Mississippi (NEW!)
janesays
To get to 51, Democrats probably need to win at least 5 seats…
47 current members minus Doug Jones means 4 needed to secure a 50-50 majority (with VP Harris as the tiebreaker), 5 needed to secure 51 seats where Manchin can vote no on whatever.