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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Good lord, that is a lot of money

Good lord, that is a lot of money

by David Anderson|  September 20, 20202:28 pm| 89 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Election 2020

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ActBlue is reporting that liberals and Democrats have raised at least $100 million dollars in hard money, coordination eligible funds since Friday night.

Small-dollar donors have now given $100 million on ActBlue since 8 p.m. ET Friday, investing in candidates up and down the ballot and orgs on the front lines of the impending judicial confirmation fight. The grassroots is ready to fight to honor Justice Ginsburg’s legacy.

— ActBlue (@actblue) September 20, 2020

The play for Democrats is to bring an extraordinarily rationale fear of massive electoral retribution on Republican Senators who are in tight races if they vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee before election day and then incredible political and structural retribution if there is a nominee confirmed before Inauguration Day. The money being raised right now makes both the electoral and structural threats more credible. Democrats in order to admit states and expand the Supreme Court need to start the session with at least 51 Senators to accommodate the probability that Sen. Manchin (D-WV) votes against the rules that drop the filibuster. Larger majorities makes rule and structural changes easier to implement.

Senator Murkowski (R-AK) who is not up for re-election until 2022 has come out with a statement that she will not vote to confirm a nominee before the election. This removes one golden ticket for Republican incumbents who are in tough races and would like to be able to vote no and hope yes in an attempt to save their seat. Other Republican senators have been mealy mouthed.

It is critical for Democrats to come out of the election with a Senate majority able to credibly threaten to retaliate with significant structural changes for any lame duck confirmation.

So we need to be strategic. Democrats need to win a net of three seats. Senator Jones (D-AL) is likely to lose re-election as he is running against a Republican who is not banned from a mall in one of the deepest red states in the country. So that means Democrats need to win at least 4 seats. Looking at recent polls (mainly NY Times/Sienna, Seltzer and a few others with high ratings) and glancing at a few of the projection systems, I would guess that the lay of the land looks like the following:

 

 

State Republican Seat Defender Democratic Challenger Current Status
AZ Martha McSally Mark Kelly Dem Big Lead
ME Susan Collins Sarah Gideon Dem Medium Lead
CO Cory Gardner John Hickenlooper Dem Medium Lead
NC Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham Dem Small Lead
MT Steve Daines Steve Bullock Toss-up
IA Jodi Ernst Theresa Greenfield Toss-up
SC Lindsay Graham Jaime Harrison Toss-up
KS Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier GOP Medium Lead
TX John Coryn MJ Hegar GOP BIG LEAd
KY Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath GOP Big Lead

I may be off by a little bit with a few of the seats, but Texas and Kentucky are marginal probabilities of flipping and strategically low to very low value on investment at this time. Mississippi has a higher probability at 538 of flipping Blue than Kentucky.

I’m circling back to the ACA repeal fight and a post I had right after the House got the AHCA out with a bare majority:

 

In a previous thread, a troll was FIRST!! with the advice to “Just quit, we lost this fight in November”

I reject that.

We aren’t going to win often but we get to choose how to lose. We can roll over without trying to defend our values and our morals or we can fight as hard as we can to either get a policy win or inflict significant political costs on Republicans to increase the probability of future policy wins by either putting the fear of losing their seats into them which constrains future opportunity space or flipping those seats in 2018.

And then hours after the Skinny Repeal billed failed:

We won last night…

You did it. We did it…

We told our stories, we made our phone calls even though we were told that they would not matter, we consoled each other and picked each other. We kept on banging knowing that the odds were not great in our favor, but our values, our morals, our sense of self would not allow ourselves to rest without trying as hard as possible. Some days I could not do much more, but I knew that you and millions of other decent people who worried about their lives, families, friends and communities would bang the drum for me and I would bang the drum for someone who need a respite day later on.

We kept on going. We did not know if we would win, just that we could either win a policy and political victory that protected ourselves and our vision of an America where we are in this together or at least inflict massive political costs against a vision of America that is cruel, cold and atomistic

The ACA repeal bills needed three Republicans to do not-Republican things. The SCOTUS fight needs four Republicans to go against their caucus. This is a big challenge. The most likely outcome is the infliction of massive political costs to flip the Senate and gain an in-party consensus that systemic structural reform is needed and needed fast. And for that outcome to occur, we need to be smart about how we use our resources. Focus on the winnable instead of the enjoyable fantasies.

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Reader Interactions

89Comments

  1. 1.

    pat

    September 20, 2020 at 2:33 pm

     

    So after giving Biden lots of money already, plus $20 a week until the election, the email that just landed has as a title “I have no choice but to ask you for $300.”

    Oh, and it came from Joseph R. Biden.

    I am getting a bit tired of the emails.  Thankfully most of them land in my spam folder and can be disposed of as a group.

  2. 2.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    September 20, 2020 at 2:34 pm

    Aaron Rupar @atrupar

    Supporters of the president physically prevent people from voting. What would you call it in another country?

    Anthony Tilghman @AnthonyTilghman

    Sep 19

    As you can see here they are blocking the entrance to the voting site. #EarlyVoting #VA #FairFax

     

    h/t https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1307374868229390337

  3. 3.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 2:35 pm

    Democrats in order to admit states and expand the Supreme Court need to start the session with at least 51 Senators to accommodate the probability that Sen. Manchin (D-WV) votes against the rules that drop the filibuster.

    I believe King has also said he opposes eliminating the filibuster.

  4. 4.

    MazeDancer

    September 20, 2020 at 2:40 pm

    Mike Espy is within 5 of his horrid opponent in MS.

    Better shot than McGrath. Wish he had some of her $$$.

  5. 5.

    Mowgli

    September 20, 2020 at 2:42 pm

    Shock and awe may help, hard to say how susceptible the “fear of reprisal” approach will be these days, as McTurtle has demonstrated repeatedly that American voters are highly inconsistent at using their power to influence Congress.

  6. 6.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    @MazeDancer: I was just going to go looking for the tweets about Espy.  I wonder if the O’Bros will add him to the beneficiaries of their “Get Mitch or Die Trying” millions.

  7. 7.

    Yutsano

    September 20, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    @MazeDancer: Send DougJ an e-mail. Let’s get his ActBlue some love.

  8. 8.

    wmd

    September 20, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    The hatred of McConnell guarantees that money will keep flowing to McGrath. I’m tempted… Still will concentrate on toss up and lean Dem races .

  9. 9.

    pat

    September 20, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    @Wyatt Salamanca:

    I don’t understand why the election officials didn’t call the cops.  Yes, the “protesters” have the right to stand a certain distance away (100 feet?) but certainly they do not have the right to intimidate, and that is what they are there for isn’t it.

    eta:  I read about this earlier and did not see that they were actually blocking the entrance.  Could not access the twitter posted.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    September 20, 2020 at 2:48 pm

    @pat:

    if it’s the video I saw earlier, it’s really lame.

  11. 11.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 2:48 pm

    @pat: if you follow the thread, Tilghman says the broke up when extra “security” arrived, which strikes me as odd wording. If it was the local cops, wouldn’t he have said that? I’ve looked at a couple other tweets and haven’t seen clarification, but I think municipal cops are a pretty damn trumpy bunch. I think they’d be slow to respond to such a call

  12. 12.

    SC54HI

    September 20, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    Donation strategery question: if I can only afford to give $100-200 for the Senate races, is it better to donate a lump sum to only one or two races, at most, or would smaller donations of $25 to a number of the D, Leans D & toss-up races be of value?

    Thanks!

  13. 13.

    randy khan

    September 20, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    We did our bit last night.  It will be interesting to see what the weekend total looks like.

  14. 14.

    scav

    September 20, 2020 at 2:56 pm

    Another benefit I can think of is even the faltering lonely neuron rattling in the orange husk can distinguish between $100 million plus and a swamped boat parade. Under pressure isn’t his best look and he’s (they’re!) deep enough to add in nitrogen narcosis.

  15. 15.

    MazeDancer

    September 20, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    @SC54HI:

    You can’t go wrong in donating, Do whatever you please

    But right now the big names have got a lot of $$. So give where it is needed.

    If I had $200, would give:

    $75 to Greenfield, $75 to Harrison, and $50 to a longer shot, Espy or Jones, because they’re fighters and deserve it.

  16. 16.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    September 20, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    @pat:  @Baud: @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I think this incident is a microcosm of what we’ll see on Election Day and afterwards.  Trump is the scum of the Earth and his supporters are every damn bit as scummy as he is.

    The next 4 years will be a long hard slog.

  17. 17.

    Feathers

    September 20, 2020 at 2:59 pm

    @wmd: I keep hearing from the usual suspects that the guy McGrath beat in the primary could have taken out McConnell, if the DNC hadn’t flooded money to McGrath to defeat him.

    I must confess to not following this closely at the time. Is this more rose nonsense, or did we miss out on a good candidate?

  18. 18.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 2:59 pm

    @Wyatt Salamanca: there will be long guns

  19. 19.

    MazeDancer

    September 20, 2020 at 3:00 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I wonder if the O’Bros will add him to the beneficiaries of their “Get Mitch or Die Trying” millions.

    Cannot find a list of their Senators. Went to their site, couldn’t find. But they talk about 13 Senators. Don’t know if Espy or Jones made the cut.

  20. 20.

    SiubhanDuinne

    September 20, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    @SC54HI:

    I’m sure a great argument can be made for the larger lump sum to one or two candidates, but I always donate to many campaigns in small increments, usually several times during an election season.

    My reasoning is that while the money itself is obviously important, there are individual GOP donors who can and do part with huge amounts without even noticing. Equally important (or at least almost as) is the count of unique donors to our candidates. If I were a candidate, I’d a hell of a lot rather have 20 donors send me $5 each than have one person write a check for $100. Each donation translates into a likely vote. Heartening to our folks, worrying for the opposition.

    At least, that’s how I rationalise my numerous, but small, campaign contributions.

  21. 21.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    @Feathers:

    Is this more rose nonsense, or did we miss out on a good candidate?

    the former

    it’s freakin’ Kentucky, Steve Beshear– son of a popular ex-governor and very ‘moderate’ barely beat a very unpopular incumbent

  22. 22.

    Soprano2

    September 20, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    This is off topic, but I was at my local Walmart yesterday and saw that they have removed all of the Covid restrictions. No more “shop this way” signs (hardly anyone was following that here anyway), no more long way around to go in the only open door, no more separation between in and out doors, no more counting people. Our checker said they did that Wednesday. All that’s left are the masks, which is a  local ordinance. Anyone else have this happen where they live?

  23. 23.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:04 pm

    @pat:  If you don’t want to receive the donation requests, it’s pointless to get mad at them for asking.  Unsubscribe.  The link is at the bottom of every message.

  24. 24.

    BR

    September 20, 2020 at 3:06 pm

    @Pinboard has made some good lists of local races to donate to, where you might get the most bang for the buck — wonder if it could be front-paged for a fundraising drive:

    A tweet for pinning. Want 40 great candidates to donate to, right now? Here you go:State Slate Round 1: https://t.co/nLy26xId8rRound 2: https://t.co/Tgl4eVEDAxRound 2b: https://t.co/FRrcdxtXEdRound 3: https://t.co/EXmfRur6SJGreat Slate (Federal): https://t.co/axizk6LVlb— Pinboard (@Pinboard) August 24, 2020

  25. 25.

    zhena gogolia

    September 20, 2020 at 3:06 pm

    @Baud:

    Yeah, even I wouldn’t be intimidated by that.

  26. 26.

    Omnes Omnibus

    September 20, 2020 at 3:08 pm

    @WaterGirl: I am doing that ruthlessly.  And texting “Stop” to all my texts.   I am paying attention.  I don’t need 9000 reminders a day.

  27. 27.

    pat

    September 20, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I’m not mad so much as annoyed and wondering if they really think I alone can save them.  And most of the time the messages are in “OMG without you we are toast” mode.  In other words, sounding the alarm…

    I just ignore them.  But with the recent news of massive donations coming into ActBlue it did seem a bit overblown.

  28. 28.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:11 pm

    @Feathers: I have no idea.  But I am reminded of my partner decades ago, who had recently installed our new tub surround in the bathroom.

    Even so, I was still looking at tub surrounds when we were in stores, and I found one that I liked so much better than the one we got.  The response was sharp and clear:

    “Stop shopping for tub surrounds.  The tub surround is already installed.  It does not matter.  We cannot go back in time.”

  29. 29.

    Baud

    September 20, 2020 at 3:12 pm

    @pat:

    It’s a preprogrammed mass email. There’s no one in the office this weekend personally sending these things out to individual donors.

  30. 30.

    AndyG

    September 20, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    Here’s Sam Wang’s list of Senate races where your cash has the most impact:

    https://election.princeton.edu/senate-race-voter-powers-by-state/

    and method:

    https://election.princeton.edu/election-tracking-2020-u-s-senate/

     

    at the moment, the top four are MT, KS, AK and SC

  31. 31.

    Sister Golden Bear

    September 20, 2020 at 3:14 pm

    FWIW, I created a separate Gmail address just for political/charitable donations. Yes, it’s clogged with money begs, but I also don’t look at it often (I think the only times I’ve really checked was to find out the shipping status of stuff I ordered from the Joe Store.)

  32. 32.

    Splitting Image

    September 20, 2020 at 3:15 pm

    I would add Ossoff in Georgia to the list, as it is currently a toss-up. The other seat ought to be an easier win against the corrupt Loeffler, but the jungle primary makes it harder to predict.

    Democratic voters should also look ahead to 2022. There are some potential pickups there as well as some seats the party can lose if they are not careful. A big win this year means that the Democrats can play offense against Rubio in Florida, Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Johnson in Wisconsin. Coming up short would make those guys feel a lot more secure about their chances next time out.

  33. 33.

    cs

    September 20, 2020 at 3:17 pm

    Here in Kansas, I’d call the Bollier – Marshall Senate race a toss-up. Or at least “toss-up adjacent”. Last polling done was in mid-August, with a 2 point lead for Marshall. Poll right before that one was a 1 point lead for Marshall. She’s doing well.

    Our polls for President are also interesting, at least by Kansas standards. Trump’s only got a 7 point lead and he’s below 50%. I’m not expecting Trump to lose here, but hopeful that win will stay in the single digits.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:18 pm

    @SC54HI: For that amount of money, I would say two things.

    • Donate to whatever race(s) you feel  most connected too.
    • That amount of money will have more impact in down ballot races.

    Born and raised or have family in North Carolina?  Or your best vacation ever was in NC?   DougJ’s Flip NC thermometer lets you split your money between several candidates because Dems are close to having enough seats to turn the NC legislature blue.  That helps with redistricting.

    Care about Texas because you think that’s important?  Flip Texas is similar.

    $200 by itself makes no different to Biden.  $200 for a state race, could make a real difference.

    But if your heart warms because Kamala is a woman, or black, or whatever, that’s good, too.

    Generally speaking, I love Dave’s strategic giving idea. For the amount, spend based on your heartstrings.   My two cents.

  35. 35.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    The link to all the BJ thermometers.

    You can also find that at any time in the blue box, top right, or in the hamburger on mobile.

  36. 36.

    dnfree

    September 20, 2020 at 3:21 pm

    @Soprano2: I live in northern Illinois (outlying suburb of Chicago) and I noticed this week that the floor arrows were gone in two grocery stores. One of them had a convoluted single line for checkout previously, and this time you could approach individual checkout lines as normal. I haven’t been to Walmart to see if they have relaxed their entrance process here.

    Masks are still required and people I see are complying. I used to see a couple of people who pulled their masks down after they were in the store but I haven’t seen that recently.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Me, too.

    I write this in the line where they ask you why (if email, not text):

    I give what I can, when I can.

  38. 38.

    Eljai

    September 20, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    @MazeDancer:  I just made a small donation to Espy. If I recall correctly, his opponent had a huge lead a few short months ago. So if Espy is within 5 points now, maybe there’s hope!

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    @AndyG:

    Steve Bullock, Montana Senate

    Goal Thermometer

  40. 40.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    September 20, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    @Eljai: at the very least: Make them earn it, and maybe a strong showing by Espy will boost turn out for down-ticket Dems. I have no idea what the MS electorate looks like.

  41. 41.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    @AndyG:

    Barbara Bollier, Kansas Senate

    Goal Thermometer

  42. 42.

    Another Scott

    September 20, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Crush my fantasies, will you???!!1  You’re no fun.

    But you’re a very smart man.  I hope the DSCC, DCCC, and DLCC are listening to you.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  43. 43.

    Omnes Omnibus

    September 20, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    @Eljai: Also, every dollar that the GOP needs to spend in what used to be sure things is money they can’t spend elsewhere.

  44. 44.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    @AndyG:

    Alan Gross, Alaska Senate

    Goal Thermometer

  45. 45.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    @AndyG:

    Jaime Harrison, South Carolina Senate

    Goal Thermometer

  46. 46.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    @Splitting Image:

    Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate (regular election)

    Goal Thermometer

  47. 47.

    Baud

    September 20, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    @Eljai:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    IIRC, there are so many black voters in MS that we only need to increase the white vote for Dems by some pathetically low amount to win.  Of course, that’s easier said than done in MS.

  48. 48.

    Mousebumples

    September 20, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    @AndyG: re Sam Wang  Espy’s MS race doesn’t seem to be listed?

  49. 49.

    SiubhanDuinne

    September 20, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    @Soprano2:

    The last time I was in Publix — Wednesday, I think — I noticed they had removed all the “one-way” aisle signs. I had always scrupulously followed them, but very few others did. I guess the store finally said fuck it, and peeled all the arrows and “Do Not Enter” signs off the floor.

    ETA: They still enforce mask-wearing and six-foot spacing in checkout lines, and they remain vigilant about wiping down carts after each use. 

  50. 50.

    MazeDancer

    September 20, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    @Eljai: Yay, you!

    Espy published his own internals showing he is within 5.

    Is he a long shot? Yes.

    But though we know MS is going to do everything they can to suppress the vote, we have no idea what the Black turnout is going to be. And money can help GOTV.

  51. 51.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    BJ calendars for some of Dave’s suggestions:

    Cal Cunningham, North Carolina Senate

    Goal Thermometer

    Theresa Greenfield, Iowa Senate

    Goal Thermometer

  52. 52.

    Another Scott

    September 20, 2020 at 3:34 pm

    Loss is a greater political force than the future. https://t.co/vezjJ3GBNq

    — Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) September 20, 2020

    That’s amazingly cogent.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    Sloane Ranger

    September 20, 2020 at 3:34 pm

    @Soprano2: It’s happened at my local Morrisons here in the UK as well. The one way system, the separate doors to enter and leave and the single queue with outlines of 2 pairs of shoes on the floor and a request to stand on the outlines and respect social distancing have all gone. Most people are still following mask wearing guidelines but some aren’t and the shop is not enforcing it. Hence my outburst earlier this week.

  54. 54.

    Baud

    September 20, 2020 at 3:36 pm

    @Another Scott: It’s why the GOP is as strong as it is.

  55. 55.

    Leto

    September 20, 2020 at 3:36 pm

    @Soprano2:  My local grocery got rid of that (one way aisles, single entry/exit) a while back. I miss it because military commissaries do this and it’s really nice. But civilians like the anarchy so here we are.

  56. 56.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    @Leto:

    But civilians like the anarchy so here we are big fucking babies whose tombstones will be etched with “you’re not the boss of me!”

  57. 57.

    Soprano2

    September 20, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    So, it’s a trend to get rid of this stuff. Maybe they decided it was too much trouble or was costing too much. Or perhaps the CDC issued new guidance.

  58. 58.

    MazeDancer

    September 20, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    In his Million Dollar thread – yay, Doug! Yay BJ! – Doug says an Espy thermometer will be happening in the 2nd mil.

  59. 59.

    Redshift

    September 20, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    FWIW, I created a separate Gmail address just for political/charitable donations. 

    I so wish I had done that years ago. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to stop the torrent of fundraising emails now.

    But yeah, don’t pay any attention to the message in a fundraising email. They’re just trying to hit on something that will get a response, not telling you their real situation.

  60. 60.

    pajaro

    September 20, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    David,

    I think you’ve undersold Dems in Iowa and Kansas.  In Iowa, Greenfield has been ahead, but within the margin of error, in most polling; in Kansas, just about the only poll that I’ve found has Marshall only slightly ahead.

  61. 61.

    SC54HI

    September 20, 2020 at 4:11 pm

    Thank you all. Good suggestions, and I think I’ll go with smaller donations to more candidates..

  62. 62.

    Redshift

    September 20, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    The one-way aisles never seemed to work around here, I think because you need to be looking down to track them, and that’s not where anyone is looking in a store. I had trouble remembering to follow them, and I’m not intending to ignore any pandemic procedures.

    I get the sense that some of the restrictions were dropped after stores installed plexiglass around cashiers and stuff, because the risk to workers who were there all day was always greater than our chance encounters with other customers.

  63. 63.

    Kathleen

    September 20, 2020 at 4:23 pm

    @Eljai: I just donated today as well.

  64. 64.

    zhena gogolia

    September 20, 2020 at 4:23 pm

    @Soprano2:

    CDC, you must be joking.

  65. 65.

    Bill Arnold

    September 20, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    @Soprano2:

    Our checker said they did that Wednesday. All that’s left are the masks, which is a local ordinance.

    Masks are my line in the sand. (And distancing while queueing; walked out of a grocery store today because the queues were too tight.)
    This is NYState, in a county where the new infections/active infections rates are low enough that it is unlikely that one or more infected person is in a smaller store. If community spread is high, other measures need to be in place as well.

  66. 66.

    Kathleen

    September 20, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: And that wouldn’t have happened if Bevins hadn’t screwed the teachers, That’s what galvanized Kentucky voters for Beshear.

  67. 67.

    Bill Arnold

    September 20, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am doing that ruthlessly.

    I let the Trump campaign emails through, just to feel their desperation every day.

  68. 68.

    zhena gogolia

    September 20, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    I have no idea who this guy is, but he’s right.

    One of the core aspects of being a Republican today is never admitting who you are. Your every action is someone else’s fault, you’re always a victim, morality and principles are never defended because you don’t have free will and always have a gun to your head.— Bob Sampson (@bobsalpha1) September 20, 2020

  69. 69.

    Bill Arnold

    September 20, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    @BR:
    @Pinboard is worth following. Smart commentary as well.

  70. 70.

    Bill Arnold

    September 20, 2020 at 4:32 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    FWIW, I created a separate Gmail address just for political/charitable donations.

    Yes, absolutely, free gmail accounts are great and easy. But make sure you keep track of which one is logged into; google tracking will assume that you’re that one.

  71. 71.

    Kathleen

    September 20, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    Off topic but spontaneous demonstration occurred near Moscow Mitch’s place yesterday:

    Outside of @senatemajldr house right now. Crowd getting bigger. LMPD trying to keep people on sidewalks. Joel Willett (@realJoelWillett) September 19, 2020

    Here’s link to tweet if you want to see video:

    https://twitter.com/realJoelWillett/status/1307364144316907521

  72. 72.

    NoraLenderbee

    September 20, 2020 at 4:37 pm

    @pajaro: Most recent KS poll I’ve found is from early August: Bollier 44 to Marshall 46. Nancy Kassebaum endorsed Bollier just a few days ago. Gee, I did not realize Bollier used to be an R.

  73. 73.

    Jinchi

    September 20, 2020 at 4:39 pm

    Senator Jones (D-AL) is likely to lose re-election as he is running against a Republican who is not banned from a mall in one of the deepest red states in the country.

    I’m an optimist and I believe Jones is going to surprise us all again.

    Still let’s wrack up the numbers.  10 new Democrats in November!

  74. 74.

    Mousebumples

    September 20, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    @Bill Arnold: Yes, absolutely, free gmail accounts are great and easy. But make sure you keep track of which one is logged into; google tracking will assume that you’re that one.

    You can also set up filters and auto forwarding. I have about 4 emails running into 1 account. And I can email out from any of those accounts without needing to change my logged in account.

  75. 75.

    WaterGirl

    September 20, 2020 at 4:48 pm

    @Jinchi: It may be crazy, but I think Senator Jones will win also.

  76. 76.

    evodevo

    September 20, 2020 at 5:33 pm

    @Soprano2: Same here in Ky – no clue…it was one entrance/exit only up until the middle of the week, and then all of a sudden, it was gone…masks are still mandatory, since that is a statewide rule, but the blocked entrances are no more…

  77. 77.

    cs

    September 20, 2020 at 5:34 pm

    @NoraLenderbee: There were a handful of legislators who switched parties and / or retired because of Brownback, and to a lesser degree because of Trump.

    Kansas used to have a decent number of moderate R’s in the legislature. Even after they were nearly extinct on the national level. But the primaries this year have made them all but extinct in this state too.

  78. 78.

    Bnad

    September 20, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    Calling for no vote before the election is meaningless.  it’s basically the same as calling for a lame duck confirmation which is exactly what these vulnerable senators would like.

  79. 79.

    Repatriated

    September 20, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    @Bnad: Except a lame-duck confirmation becomes justification for court-packing.

     

    Pre-election is an excercise of raw political power. Lame-duck is an exercise in illegitimate raw political power.

  80. 80.

    jnfr

    September 20, 2020 at 5:58 pm

    @WaterGirl: 

    I unsubscribe relentlessly. It really works. They sign me up with the next donation, but I just unsub again.

  81. 81.

    Matt McIrvin

    September 20, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    Fear of electoral retribution, I dunno. To me it feels more like “at this point, we’re going to whoop your ass no matter what you do.”

  82. 82.

    Matt McIrvin

    September 20, 2020 at 7:19 pm

    @Redshift: The workers are the people least likely to be wearing masks properly, though (no surprise since they have to wear them all day, which must be uncomfortable, and they keep slipping and such). That’s gotten better over time.

    One of the things that’s gotten increasingly clear from the medical literature is that masks are more important and work better than anyone really had a right to expect, and some of the surface-sanitization stuff is probably not necessary. The things to do get clearer as time goes on, not to say that people really do them.

  83. 83.

    Matt McIrvin

    September 20, 2020 at 7:34 pm

    The thing I hate about the money begs is that it’s the campaign officially being ridiculously negative about itself–they always emphasize the worst outlier polls they can find. To me it’s not a good look, but I guess they’ve determined empirically that that brings in the bucks. I wonder about the side effect of telling your most devoted followers that you’re perpetually losing, though.

  84. 84.

    Matt McIrvin

    September 20, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    @Soprano2: Massachusetts lifted the reduced occupancy limits on supermarkets a while ago, and the local Market Basket immediately stopped controlling the flow of people through the door, so there’s no queue to get in any more. But the crowds still seem light, so it’s not a huge deal.

    There are still one-way signs (infrequently followed) and six-foot lines to stand on for the queue at the cashiers, and masks are still required and pretty much universally worn (it seems to me compliance has actually improved). I don’t think the one-way signs really do anything because people still push past each other in the aisles

    (The situation here is not great, though–I think there’s a need for tighter controls again.)

  85. 85.

    Ian

    September 20, 2020 at 10:23 pm

    @Feathers:

    I thought he was a better progressive than McGrath.  Being able to beat McConnell in Kentucky?  No evidence I have seen indicates this.

  86. 86.

    Ian

    September 20, 2020 at 10:41 pm

    @Repatriated:

    I would call the political power illegitimate either way, due to it being gained in a manner that was not consistent with the values of democracy.

    Just curious, how do you feel about the law that allows gay men and women to serve openly in the military?

    Not all lame duck legislation is bad.  One could argue that the lame duck sessions allow retiring/ leaving legislators to vote the way they desire, rather than subject to political pressure and popular opinion

  87. 87.

    Inspectrix

    September 21, 2020 at 12:04 am

    I really appreciate this post and comments. I was contemplating my donation options today and this info helped me move from contemplation to payment. Now on to text banking and get out the vote calls.
    My kid helped put a Biden-Harris sticker on top of our social justice montage yard sign tonight. We can do this.

  88. 88.

    Chris Sherbak

    September 21, 2020 at 2:41 am

    @MazeDancer: Here’s the (recently updated) list from the ActBlue page:

    Here are the top Senate races where we believe your donation can make the biggest difference (in no particular order):

    – Colorado

    – Maine

    – North Carolina

    – Montana

    – Iowa

    – Georgia (both seats!)

    – Alabama

    – Michigan

    – Alaska

    – South Carolina

    – Texas

    – Kansas

    – Mississippi (NEW!)

  89. 89.

    janesays

    September 21, 2020 at 5:32 am

    To get to 51, Democrats probably need to win at least 5 seats…

    47 current members minus Doug Jones means 4 needed to secure a 50-50 majority (with VP Harris as the tiebreaker), 5 needed to secure 51 seats where Manchin can vote no on whatever.

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