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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Biden-Harris 2020 / Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Leading Indicators

Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Leading Indicators

by Anne Laurie|  October 28, 20205:59 pm| 294 Comments

This post is in: Biden-Harris 2020, Open Threads

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However little you think of Jeff Flake, you have to admit he can sniff a trend like a beagle after a cookie…

.@JeffFlake helping @JoeBiden + @KamalaHarris bring it home in Arizona with a new GOTV ad —> pic.twitter.com/HO1zWcI7DM

— Geoff Burgan (@GeoffBurgan) October 28, 2020

15,179,420 Americans who didn't vote in 2016 have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election.

The Democratic lead among these surge voters is almost double their lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 27, 2020


? Electoral College rating change: Texas moves from Lean R to Toss Up

Read @amyewalter's latest analysis: https://t.co/eiPt68cNxJ

— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) October 28, 2020

The Biden campaign's travel schedule to close the race exudes a type of confidence that basically 99.999% of the Democratic Party is too psychologically scarred to have.

— Sam Stein (@samstein) October 28, 2020

Biden campaign isn’t spending to flip Texas because they don’t need it. Trump campaign isn’t spending to hold Texas because they can’t afford it.

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 28, 2020

Kamala Harris going to McAllen for a symbolic “I busted Texas” reason. Fort Worth & Houston get her that. She isn’t going there to help out any local candidates. Everything there is Democratic. You go there only to boost the turnout you need for a statewide win.

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 28, 2020

ETA:

New: President Obama will join @JoeBiden in Michigan on Saturday, his campaign advises

— Hanna Trudo (@HCTrudo) October 28, 2020

This says it as clearly as I’ve seen. #AmericaNeedsMichigan pic.twitter.com/MaX4Gv3E1k

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) October 27, 2020

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Reader Interactions

294Comments

  1. 1.

    Cheryl Rofer

    October 28, 2020 at 6:02 pm

    To win, Trump needs to win states where he hasn’t led polling averages in months

    The fundamental problem for Trump is that the states where he has had a consistent lead — Alaska, Montana, Utah — generally offer fewer electoral votes than the ones where Biden has consistently led. States where Trump has consistently led have an average of 6.9 electoral votes. States where Biden’s consistently led average 12 electoral votes. Now multiply those values by the number of states, and you see the situation.

    Or, if you don’t, let’s be explicit. The states that are solid for Biden offer 182 electoral votes. Those where Biden has always led — call them the ceiling states — offer another 152. That’s 334 electoral votes alone, more than the 270 needed to win.

    In the states where Trump has consistently led, Biden’s average peak is 43 percent, 7.2 points lower than Trump’s average low. In states where Biden has consistently led, Trump’s average peak is 44 percent, 5.2 points lower than Biden’s average low.

  2. 2.

    Bailey

    October 28, 2020 at 6:03 pm

    Give Flake additional credit for finding a stunning backdrop for his ad.

  3. 3.

    piratedan

    October 28, 2020 at 6:03 pm

    Kamala here in Tucson…. today…

    https://www.facebook.com/LarryBodine4601/videos/1388229874719115/

    courtesy of the Facebook feed from Blog For Arizona

  4. 4.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 6:03 pm

    Anonymous revealed himself, and nobody seems to much care.

     

    Miles Taylor.

  5. 5.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:04 pm

    Go Kamala!!!

    We need every state flip we can get. If we get Texas (and it will have be without a doubt margins) and hopefully the down tickets as well – we will have a iron clad lock on the election that cannot be fucked with.

    Nothing can be close. It has to be a blow out – we flip that senate and then it is going to be revenge. It’s time for our politicians to no longer bring a chess set to a knife fight – but a fucking howitzer.

  6. 6.

    Captain C

    October 28, 2020 at 6:05 pm

    I just voted!!!  Unfortunately, my early spot is not near the Indonesian restaurant after all, so I’ll do that this weekend. I was grinning under my mask as I went straight WFP (which echoed the Democratic line entirely).  And now, a nice 30 block walk home in the gloaming with a stop for Mexican food.

  7. 7.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:06 pm

    I wish Kamala would come here to Oregon. When Obama came here – we brought 80k people – it was a SIGHT. I will never forget the sea of people in a completely 180 degree – on the bridges, across the river, in boats, it was the most amazing political event I’ve ever been to.

  8. 8.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 6:06 pm

    @cain: It’s time for our politicians to no longer bring a chess set to a knife fight – but a fucking howitzer.

    And if they can’t bring a howitzer, at least bring a sharper knife.

  9. 9.

    dr. bloor

    October 28, 2020 at 6:08 pm

    Getting Jeff Flake on board strikes me as the rough equivalent of having Bill Kristol predict victory.

  10. 10.

    Frank Wilhoit

    October 28, 2020 at 6:08 pm

    @germy: He didn’t reveal himself sooner because his position would not have lent him any credibility.  It still doesn’t, but it is now too late for him to even benefit from credibility.

  11. 11.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:09 pm

    I just read up on that whole thing going in Omaha, that sounds like a real shooting yourself in the foot in a place that they didn’t have to work hard. He’s going to where people love him – but that hot mess is going to have an effect on some of those people – stuck in the cold, especially for the elderly and the youngsters – some might not be so forgiving of the Trump campaign. But they might not take it personally against Trump – but boy, what a shitty way to fuck up.

  12. 12.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 6:10 pm

    Scoop–DNI Ratcliffe strayed from his prepared remarks last week to say publicly that Iran's spoof emails intimidating Dems were aimed at "damaging President Trump," blindsiding FBI Director Wray and CISA Director Chris Krebs who were standing behind him. https://t.co/DNSL7jIbOf— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) October 28, 2020

    It was the strangest part of the press conference.

  13. 13.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:10 pm

    @germy:

    Relevant:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSnosk4tWrg

  14. 14.

    dr. bloor

    October 28, 2020 at 6:11 pm

    @cain: At this point, Trump is pretty much confined to campaigning in states where he won’t lose Electoral College votes even if he happens to kill a few people while on the ground.

  15. 15.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:12 pm

    @dr. bloor:

    Luckily he’s not doing that – he’s a lot more saner when he’s not peddling conservative bullshit. I get annoyed when I find myself nodding along to whatever the fuck that guy says.

  16. 16.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 6:12 pm

    BREAKING: Supreme Court won’t expedite Republican request to stop extended deadline for receiving mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. New Justice Barrett did not participate

    — Robert Barnes (@scotusreporter) October 28, 2020

  17. 17.

    Peale

    October 28, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    @cain: It’s really smart. No it is. People need to be encouraged to come to the event. So make entry as easy as possible. They obviously aren’t going to stay there forever once its over. But they have a good head on their shoulders and can find their own way back. This is why it never makes sense to hire busboys in restaurants. waste of money. If people want to eat, they’ll clear the table. They don’t have to be told or coddled.

  18. 18.

    Cheryl Rofer

    October 28, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    If I’m reading today’s polls correctly, either Biden has preserved and deepened his lead or a lot of Trump voters have become much more bashful in the last week of the campaign.

    — Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 28, 2020

  19. 19.

    Rand Careaga

    October 28, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    OK, with that Flake is issued a “Get Out of Tumbrel Free” card, but he voted to confirm Boofer Brett, so he still has to spend a couple of years in a re-education camp.

  20. 20.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 6:14 pm

    The Biden campaign’s travel schedule to close the race exudes a type of confidence that basically 99.999% of the Democratic Party is too psychologically scarred to have.

    Well no shit.

  21. 21.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:15 pm

    @cain:

    Return transportation is socialism.

  22. 22.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:16 pm

    Besides 2016, we’re constantly being told we have to win big, not just win.  People are bound to be nervous.

  23. 23.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    @germy:

    Did he acknowledge he was just a disgruntled employee? //

  24. 24.

    LeftCoastYankee

    October 28, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    @cain:

    I will never forget the sea of people in a completely 180 degree.

    Not to mention it was 95+ degrees in May (IIRC?).   Can’t believe that was 12 years ago already.

  25. 25.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 6:21 pm

    @germy:

    I’m confused. What was it Kavanaugh was talking about yesterday?

  26. 26.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    @germy:

    2020 man.  The pentagon confirmed UFOs, too.  Was met with a big meh.

  27. 27.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:25 pm

    @cain: Omaha? That’s NE-02. Biden polling at +10 there. Obama won NE-02 in 2008.

  28. 28.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 28, 2020 at 6:25 pm

    @debbie: He was concentrating on his studies, his faith, and football. He had no time for girls and hootch.
    One time he stopped to help an old lady across the street and was late for Mass, but he went to confession after.

  29. 29.

    piratedan

    October 28, 2020 at 6:26 pm

    @piratedan:  I really liked that the focus of the speech in the beginning was all about what Trump knew and what he did and how that has resulted to Harris having to give a speech in a socially distanced format to try and keep us safe…

  30. 30.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:27 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: The undecideds are coming in. As I suspected, they’re breaking for Biden.

  31. 31.

    LeftCoastYankee

    October 28, 2020 at 6:27 pm

    This from the Stein tweet is a teeth-grinder:

    …type of confidence that basically 99.999% of the Democratic Party is too psychologically scarred to have.

    As if all the Republican (and others) ratfcking, and the gullible media enabling isn’t at all part of the issue.  Not to mention all the fascist drum beating from the administration.

  32. 32.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:27 pm

    @germy:  Close to the election, I’d prefer that the GOTV experts play chess, which seems to me is what they are doing.

    I’d leave the knife fighting, or willingness to put up any kind of fight, to the political consultants and the politicians themselves.

  33. 33.

    Timurid

    October 28, 2020 at 6:27 pm

    Speaking of leading indicators, we may be facing a very dangerous moment tomorrow and possibly the last major inflection point of the campaign (barring any surprise news). GDP figures for the quarter will be released, and by all accounts they will absurdly, cartoonishly high… as in well over 30% growth. Of course that’s recovery from the extremely low baseline set earlier this year and not nearly as impressive as it looks at first glance. The problem is that not everyone is going to understand or look into the underlying mechanics, and this could be a big surge of oxygen for Trump in the last few days of the campaign.

  34. 34.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    I love this:

    Black women — often the front and last line of defense. pic.twitter.com/YbQDC2DLfo

    — Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) October 28, 2020

  35. 35.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:31 pm

    @Timurid: 30 percent is the annualized rate, what would happen over the whole year it it was like the 3rd quarter. On the ground, for the average voter, it won’t feel like some accelerating boom, but continued trend towards disappointing and less than Trumpsters promised.

  36. 36.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:31 pm

    @Timurid:

    I don’t think that’s going to matter outside of people who are already Trump committed.

  37. 37.

    schrodingers_cat

    October 28, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    @Baud: I agree. All this doom posting and making out the Orange Clown to be an all powerful omnipotent superbeing, is annoying.

    It is he should be afraid not us.

  38. 38.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 28, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    @germy:

    Miles Taylor.

    MR. LOYALTIES – not!
    AIMS TROLLEY – or bus?
    ORALLY SMITE – the audiobook version
    A SMELLY RIOT – the West Wing this afternoon, probably
    REMIT ALLOYS – or Bitcoin will do
    MOTLEY LIARS – only the best people

  39. 39.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    @Timurid: I doubt it’ll matter. People know where they stand in the economy. Plus, half of votes are already cast. Some GA counties are already past their 2016 total votes.

    Maybe before the debates it would have helped.

  40. 40.

    eric

    October 28, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    @jl: i would say that the numbers create a risk that the WH will say something like “all is great,” when people living through the pandemic on a local level cannot see any macro level growth.  Plus, states are re-shutting down.  I fully expect some brutally tone deaf statements from Kudlow et al.

  41. 41.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    @Timurid: Krugman has a good explainer on the GDP numbers and how they’ll look to people experiencing reality on the ground, a measurement issue, and annualized rates.

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1321503747726544897

  42. 42.

    Wolf

    October 28, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    @germy:

     

    Anonymous revealed himself, and nobody seems to much care.
    Miles Taylor.

    Who?

    Still anonymous.

  43. 43.

    West of the Rockies

    October 28, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    I liked that Jeff Daniels ad.  The music was darkly compelling, and I hope it speaks to Michiganers.

  44. 44.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I think there are real threats, including the courts.  But people do tend to overboard on assessing risks accurately when they’re nervous.

  45. 45.

    Tim C.

    October 28, 2020 at 6:36 pm

    @cain: I was there too!     On the other hand,  Pandemic Portland is (mostly) following the rules which is why our number have been decent, if not as good as we wish thanks to many rural yokels.

  46. 46.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:36 pm

    @Peale: I think I can smell your sarcasm from here – but in case it isnt – that’s not a carbon friendly method of bringing people over. Plus if they carted you there to the place, they are obligated to carted back.

  47. 47.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    @eric: Hard to know who some more TV spots of Trump, Mnuchin and Kudlow looking like sketchy local used care salesmen pitching a car that they aren’t showing you will play. Great for some die-hards, maybe not so much for more reality based voters.

  48. 48.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    @Baud: Return transportation is socialism.

    :smirks:

  49. 49.

    Timurid

    October 28, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    @jl:  Yes (I linked the same thing). But it could still influence people who are not experts or who are not being directly hurt.

  50. 50.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:38 pm

    @LeftCoastYankee: Not to mention it was 95+ degrees in May (IIRC?). Can’t believe that was 12 years ago already.

    I don’t remember it being hot – it was super pleasant – and it felt like a country faire or something. Plus the stupid cops didn’t even do crowd control – everyone self organized and got people going, traffic moving – the cops just sat around. Assholes. But there was a feeling in the air – never experienced anything like it.

  51. 51.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:38 pm

    @Timurid: Sorry, I didn’t spot the text hyperlink

    Edit: for worriers, I don’t think people are impressed by sleazy over the top sales pitches that don’t reflect their own reality. I think several swing states are being hit by big increase in cases and economic and social fall out, and that include FL.

  52. 52.

    Bill Arnold

    October 28, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    One of yesterday’s Grifter Team Trump 2020 email. The “love”, it is not reciprocated. :-) (The constant emails from his family are genuinely creepy, albeit probably just looting their gullible followers pre-election. On the plus side, they’re addition justification for targeting them without mercy, forevermore.)
    I particularly like the “Trump Fact” that we as a nation will be luckier with Trump as Dear Leader. (His luck-debt is being called due. :-)

    Subject: America, I love you.
    Bill,
    The Democrats have become UNHINGED.
    They are so blinded by their hatred for me that they can’t accept that I am achieving the Greatest American Comeback in history.
    When I’m re-elected as your President in 7 days, NEXT YEAR will be our BEST YEAR EVER. If Sleepy Joe wins, well, we won’t be so lucky with him as our Nation’s leader. That’s just a fact.
    Our LAST End-of-Month Deadline before the Election is coming up and I’m counting on YOU to step up ONE LAST TIME. This is so critical that I’ve authorized all gifts to increase their impact by 900% until MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
    I need you right now, Bill. You’re one of my strongest supporters and YOU can help us WIN BIG.
    Please contribute $5 TODAY to help us CRUSH our End-of-Month Goal and your contribution can increase its impact by 900%. >>
    FINAL END-OF-MONTH DEADLINE OF THE ELECTION

    [Contribute XXX buttons]
    I’m reviewing a list of ALL End-of-Month Donors soon. Will I see your name?
    Contribute $5 RIGHT NOW to help CRUSH our goal and to increase your impact by 900%.
    Thank you,
    Donald J. Trump
    President of the United States

  53. 53.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    @jl:

    Aren’t the good numbers because if the CARES act?

  54. 54.

    schrodingers_cat

    October 28, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    @Baud: As an immigrant, who has friends in various stages of GC applications and naturalization applications I do know the havoc he can and has caused but being afraid of the bully boy and letting him dictate the terms of the dialog achieves nothing. He blusters and lies all the fucking time.

    What he excels at is gaslighting and manipulating people. I refuse to play his game.

  55. 55.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: My concern isn’t that he’s an all powerful superbeing, it’s that a lot of my job concerns policy making and creating durable institutions, and the last year in particular has revealed just how fragile US institutions are, because never before have we been dumb enough to invite a bull into the china shop.

    If Biden wins, that doesn’t automatically change. Even a Dem Congress leaves things fragile. I mean, we could use a Dem majority to pass a health care bill, but USSC could simply invalidate it. That’s why I’m concerned about Congress’ ability to reform voting rights given so many justices apparent hostility to constitutional amendments that have done exactly that.

  56. 56.

    cain

    October 28, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    @Martin:

    @cain: Omaha? That’s NE-02. Biden polling at +10 there. Obama won NE-02 in 2008.

    Apparently, Trump is desperate for NE. It’s also completely indefensible – a lot of those people will feel like they’ve been slapped in the face – especially those who are taking the elderly – imagine the bathroom situation and various others – and then being out till early morning? WTF. I would be pissed at Biden if that happened to me.

  57. 57.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @Baud: That is too deep in the weeds for me. Seems like some of it must be.

  58. 58.

    schrodingers_cat

    October 28, 2020 at 6:42 pm

    @Martin: Where did I say that Biden winning makes everything instantaneously better like a waving a magic wand.

    I understand what is at stake here.

  59. 59.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:42 pm

    @cain:

    . I would be pissed at Biden if that happened to me.

    You don’t belong to a cult.

  60. 60.

    Felanius Kootea

    October 28, 2020 at 6:43 pm

    Great ad by Jeff Flake.

    I’m kind of mad right now about Trump vetoing Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s nomination to be Director General of the WTO when the majority of countries across the globe back her.  She’s black, competent, pro-globalism, pro-sanity, and most definitely not a yes-person, all things he and his minions hate. By November 7 though, if Biden wins, maybe the WTO will just ignore him.

  61. 61.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 6:43 pm

    @Bill Arnold: Lindsey Graham been giving Trump advice on how to beg for money as desperately as possible?

  62. 62.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 6:43 pm

    O/T if anyone is looking for an inexpensive but tasty white wine, try Matua.  It’s a New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc.  I’ve always been a red wine person, but this is good!!

  63. 63.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:44 pm

    @cain: I think NE-02 is key for Biden to win if he loses both PA and FL. There’s some specific scenario where NE-02 is the tipping point.

    I don’t think he’s losing either FL or PA. Cook moving TX to tossup 6 days out, after half the ballots are already cast should scare the fuck out of the GOP.

  64. 64.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:44 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    We will bring him down to size next week.

  65. 65.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    My dear friend’s fiancée was deported.  We are all heartbroken.

  66. 66.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 6:46 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I never suggested you did. I’m merely noting that some of us are anxious about some of the overarching issues and not just Trump narrowly.

  67. 67.

    terry chay

    October 28, 2020 at 6:46 pm

    @Captain C: Speaking of Mexican food after voting, here is a wonderful article to read: No Love, No Tacos.

  68. 68.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    “I have seen that this campaign continues to go out brandishing a Bible and an American flag and claiming that they have anything to do with freedom… They have nothing to do with freedom,” says Jessica Denson, a former Trump campaign official who is now backing Joe Biden.

  69. 69.

    David ?Booooooo!? Koch

    October 28, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    As of 4 PM Eastern:

    ? at least 75 million people have voted

    ? 5 million votes have been cast today

    ? Act Blue raised $22.5 million dollars in the last 21 hours

    ? 9 people stranded at the Omaha Trump rally have been diagnosed with pneumonia

    ?  Hope rides again this Saturday (photo)

  70. 70.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    @Martin: And Cook is pretty conservative in their assessments.

  71. 71.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    Why are you one of his strongest supporters?

  72. 72.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 6:48 pm

    @MomSense:

    Christ.

  73. 73.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:49 pm

    @David ?Booooooo!? Koch:

     

    Haha.  Great cover.

  74. 74.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    @debbie:

    Space Force!

  75. 75.

    craigie

    October 28, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    @Rand Careaga:

    This seems fair.

  76. 76.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 6:52 pm

    @Martin:

    Wasn’t Trump there for the electoral vote(s)?

    Nebraska awards five electoral votes total: two to the overall winner of the state, and one each to the winner of each the three congressional districts.

  77. 77.

    Jeffro

    October 28, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    @Martin:The undecideds are coming in. As I suspected, they’re breaking for Biden.

    Yuuuuup!  Everyone who’s all-in on trumpov was all-in after Charlottesville and Helsinki.  I have no doubt he brought some occasional voters in off the sidelines, but he’s lost even more from the GOP, and alienated most (bless their hearts) “independents”.

    trumpov is good for his turnout and great for ours.

  78. 78.

    schrodingers_cat

    October 28, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @Martin: A D win is just the beginning I agree. I can just focus on Tuesday right now. I will leave the worrying about how to right this ship that has run aground after next Tuesday.

    @MomSense: OMG that’s terrible. What happened if you don’t mind sharing.

  79. 79.

    Ken

    October 28, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    @Bill Arnold: I need you right now, Bill. You’re one of my strongest supporters

    I assume you haven’t given him any money?  Yet you rank as one of his strongest supporters…

    And yes, I know it’s a form letter and a lie, but you’d think they’d do some triaging of their mailing lists.  I wonder how many of the Tulsa tik-tokkers are getting these emails.

  80. 80.

    Sloane Ranger

    October 28, 2020 at 6:58 pm

    @cain:

     

    But they might not take it personally against Trump – but boy, what a shitty way to fuck up.

    No, but there’s a chance that a percentage of the older people will suffer side effects from the cold and walking 3.5 miles back to their cars that they will be unable to turn up to vote next week. Probably not enough to make a difference but every little helps if it’s really close.

    I thought the idea was to suppress the other sides votes, not your own.

  81. 81.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    To date, Humboldt has seen 568 cases, 37 hospitalizations and 10 deaths

    Also — Nine Inch Nails’ Trent Reznor says he told Ted Cruz to “f–k off” when he asked to be put on concert guest list

  82. 82.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:00 pm

    @Sloane Ranger:

    Trump needs to hold more rallies.

  83. 83.

    aliasofwestgate

    October 28, 2020 at 7:02 pm

    @West of the Rockies: I think it will. I’m living in Wisconsin now, but that add is perfectly Michigan from a true native. I’m worried about Peters’ senate seat, but not overtly much. Especially if turnout is high, early voting and mail in too. He quietly got that seat after Levin retired, and i think he’s got a good chance ot keep it as well. When Michigan gets mad, they get even.  Engler infamously promised Michigan on a silver platter to Dubya back in the 00s.  We all voted against him and it stayed blue, nationally pretty much out of spite. I’m feeling spiteful myself even in my new locale, so i think others will too. Trump’s been a major asshole to Whitmer, who’s been working her ass off to keep the state’s Covid contained and under control and keep shit running even as she works against a crappy state supreme court and legislature.  The rural areas are pretty red, but the cities? blue af and angry af.

  84. 84.

    Cheryl Rofer

    October 28, 2020 at 7:04 pm

    @Baud:

    Trump needs to hold more rallies.

    The downside of this theory is that most of the country is currently in uncontrolled covid spread, and we don’t need that made worse.

  85. 85.

    Ohio Mom

    October 28, 2020 at 7:07 pm

    Is Miles Taylor the conventionally good-looking fellow who quit Homeland Security and made a commercial for Biden a while back, saying what he witnessed at his job was frightening? If not, who is he?

    On another note, Jeff Daniels is very loyal to his Michigan home town. He created a theater downtown as an economic development tool. I understand he spends a fair amount of time there.

    I don’t remember the name of this podunk town, we went there about a dozen years ago on our way to tour the Jiffy Cornbread factory. Lots of great stuff to see and do in Michigan, we had a fun week touring.

  86. 86.

    piratedan

    October 28, 2020 at 7:08 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: he’s in Bullhead City today, all the hallmarks of another potential super-spreader…. all of the middle-class and lower middle class MAGA’s who will go from there to all of their snowbird sanctuaries and spread it from there.

    It’s gonna suck big time for places like Kingman, Needles, Vegas where people will likely infect fast food workers in a 250mi area…

    its gonna be awful

    for those unaware, Bullhead City is across the Colorado River from Laughlin… its situated to pick up gambling addicts and people who have money to burn but feel that Vegas is “too colorful” for them.  It’s in Trump’s demographic wheelhouse.

  87. 87.

    Sloane Ranger

    October 28, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    @Ohio Mom:

     

    Is Miles Taylor the conventionally good-looking fellow who quit Homeland Security and made a commercial for Biden a while back, saying what he witnessed at his job was frightening? If not, who is he?

    Yep, that’s him.

  88. 88.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    @Baud: First, win.  Second, win big.  Third, destroy the GOP as a viable political entity once and for all.  I would like to see all three.  I would be happy with the first two.  I could live with the first if I must.  I believe that makes me a neo-liberal squish of some kind.

  89. 89.

    Martin

    October 28, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    @debbie: Yeah. I was replying to the suggestion that the folks around Omaha like Trump. He’s gonna lose NE-02 pretty badly. It was a dumb place for him to go not because it’s a lock, but because it’s out of reach.

    He should be in Texas, because that’s the ballgame now.

  90. 90.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 7:11 pm

    I’m so exhausted and I just want it to be over. Since learning of Amira’s death (daughter of friend/colleague, and a good friend to our Spawn) last night, I am just emotionally worn out. Thank you to those who donated to the GoFundMe. It looks like the family will come close or meet the goal.

    I do have a voting outfit: “VOTE” face mask, T-shirt reading “Rule like Ruth”, and I’m thinking of topping it off with a pussy hat.

  91. 91.

    Sab

    October 28, 2020 at 7:12 pm

    @Ohio Mom: Miles Taylor is the guy you remember.

    I used to live in western M8chigan, but the deVos and VanAndel famikies were taking over politically.

  92. 92.

    Cheryl Rofer

    October 28, 2020 at 7:13 pm

    @piratedan: I’m seeing clips from his rallies today, and he’s not even bothering to fake it by asking the people sitting behind him to wear masks. They’re all unmasked now.

  93. 93.

    different-church-lady

    October 28, 2020 at 7:14 pm

    YEAH, WELL HILLARY HAD A BIG LEAD AND LOOK HOW THAT TURNED wait, Texas is doing what?

  94. 94.

    piratedan

    October 28, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: and I’m guessing that his entire crew has suspended doing any testing, why bother… they obviously have made the decision to not give a shit.

  95. 95.

    different-church-lady

    October 28, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: He’ll start ladling out the Flavor-Aid any day now.

  96. 96.

    Ken

    October 28, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    @Martin: He should be in Texas, because that’s the ballgame now.

    At this rate, by Friday he’ll be heading to South Dakota again to try to salvage its three electoral votes.

  97. 97.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 28, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    @cain: Nebraska divides 3 of its 5 electoral votes by congressional district. NE-02 is Omaha, and while the rest of the state is deep red, that one electoral vote went to Obama in 2008. They redrew the district to try to keep it from happening again, but it seems to be happening again.

    (Actually, NE-01 looks much less red than it used to be, but it’s probably still a pretty safe get for Trump.)

  98. 98.

    Barbara

    October 28, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    @Martin: I don’t see a lot of strategic thinking, but I assume they are simply hoping Texas holds. A single rally in Texas won’t mean much and it’s expensive to advertise.

    ETA: Or maybe no one is brave enough to suggest Texas might be lost.

  99. 99.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    @Suzanne:

    I was so ticked that my RBG Dissent pin arrived a few days after I’d voted.

  100. 100.

    Zzyzx

    October 28, 2020 at 7:19 pm

    @Martin: Half?

    Texas has cast 91% of their 2016 vote total already. I mean that means turnout will be greater but I suspect the majority of voters have already done so.

  101. 101.

    Barbara

    October 28, 2020 at 7:19 pm

    @Ken

    Commenting is wacky right now, but I don’t think Trump should be worried about the Dakotas.

  102. 102.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:20 pm

    @Zzyzx:

    IIRC, Texas in 2016 was already bluer in 2016 than it had been in the recent past.

  103. 103.

    different-church-lady

    October 28, 2020 at 7:21 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Look, you gotta remember it’s all those people who registered as Democrats years ago but now can’t stand Biden and are going to… Aw fuck it, I can’t do it anymore.

  104. 104.

    Cheryl Rofer

    October 28, 2020 at 7:22 pm

    In response to Peggy Noonan –

    NEW ?️?️?️: #MVPHarris

    As our next Vice President, Kamala Harris will represent every voice that has gone unheard.

    via @TheDemCoalition pic.twitter.com/DB10mmfedX

    — ☥ † The Rev. Mark Thompson (@ministter) October 28, 2020

  105. 105.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    @piratedan: Remember what happened when Borat went to Kingman?

  106. 106.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Wait, that’s not embarrassing at all.

  107. 107.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:25 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    That is beautiful.

  108. 108.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    October 28, 2020 at 7:25 pm

    If Biden wins, especially if he wins big, I hope and pretty much believe that Trump will wind up being the last gasp of white resentment being the driving force in a national election win. That would be something to celebrate for sure. I do want to win, and big, just because it gives us an instant “we have a mandate from the voters” response to the inevitable obstruction Moscow Mitch will try to mount.

  109. 109.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 7:26 pm

    @debbie: My cousin Dave took a picture of himself wearing a Ruth collar shirt putting his ballot into the mailbox. I told him that the lace is very becoming on him.

  110. 110.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    @Ken:

    The Governor of SD criticized Governor Mills of Maine.  She was asked about it today.  Let’s just say she put that idiot in her place.

  111. 111.

    prostratedragon

    October 28, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    @Ohio Mom: Chelsea! Was a village until about 20 years ago, when it upgraded its charter to a town, I’ll have you know.

     

    ETA: Chelsea is in the southeastern part of Michigan, about 15-20 miles west of Ann Arbor and (I think) in the same county.

  112. 112.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    @MomSense: Do you have a link?

  113. 113.

    Bill Arnold

    October 28, 2020 at 7:28 pm

    @debbie:

    Why are you one of his strongest supporters?

    A year-zero gmail account, my nym lower case with a dot at gmail.com, and a common name.
    I also get email from India’s PM N. Modi, from Tom Fitton at judicialwatch, from Congressman Jason Smith, and others. (The Modi one popped up hours after I criticized aspects of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program.)
    They’re a window into RW America (and India).

  114. 114.

    Isua

    October 28, 2020 at 7:29 pm

    @ Ohio Mom – I think it’s Chelsea, Michigan. Went to an AMAZING restaurant there once and it’s a very cute town.

  115. 115.

    Bill Arnold

    October 28, 2020 at 7:30 pm

    @Baud:

    Space Force!

    I might have a story about the origins of the Space Force.

  116. 116.

    Geminid

    October 28, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    @Martin: If I was a Texas republican official and the trump campaign asked what was a good place and time for a presidential visit, I’d wave them off, tell them we’re cool, the president can do more good in another state.

  117. 117.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:32 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    It’s such a mess.  They were supposed to get married, but my friend works in a hospital and for Covid reasons she was quarantining and I think that played a part.  He was a professor in Venezuela and basically fled with nothing because his life was in danger.  She’s distraught but a I’m going to try to meet and find out more details.

  118. 118.

    Ken

    October 28, 2020 at 7:36 pm

    @Barbara: Commenting is wacky right now, but I don’t think Trump should be worried about the Dakotas.

    I was joking, though I would point out that two weeks ago very few thought Trump would have to worry about Texas.

  119. 119.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    @Baud:

    You have to scroll down to the daily briefing video embedded at the bottom of the page.
    https://www.maine.gov/dhhs/mecdc/infectious-disease/epi/airborne/coronavirus/index.shtml CDC briefing

    To put things in perspective, we have had some of the lowest rates of infection in the country consistently until a trump super spreader rally and some churches decided they don’t have to follow the laws of man.  They held services that caused ancillary outbreaks.  Ugh.

    ETA skip to 46/47 to see the comment

  120. 120.

    Bill Arnold

    October 28, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    @Ken:

    I wonder how many of the Tulsa tik-tokkers are getting these emails.

    The Trump campaign emails are heavily booby-trapped. Every link is a tracker. So far I have not (to my knowledge) clicked on a link, so they should have no reason to believe that the email address has a Trump or Trump-curious voter behind it. Somebody probably signed me up, perhaps by accident.

  121. 121.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    @MomSense: Thanks.

  122. 122.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 7:41 pm

    @MomSense: I’m so, so sorry for your friend.

    Once again: FUCK 2020.

  123. 123.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    @Suzanne:

    I’m so sorry to hear your news.  I missed it last night. I’d like to help.  Can you share the link again?  Or the thread?

  124. 124.

    burnspbesq

    October 28, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    @Timurid:

    Speaking of leading indicators, we may be facing a very dangerous moment tomorrow and possibly the last major inflection point of the campaign (barring any surprise news). GDP figures for the quarter will be released, and by all accounts they will absurdly, cartoonishly high… as in well over 30% growth. Of course that’s recovery from the extremely low baseline set earlier this year and not nearly as impressive as it looks at first glance. The problem is that not everyone is going to understand or look into the underlying mechanics, and this could be a big surge of oxygen for Trump in the last few days of the campaign.

    ‘The markets understand this. That’s why the Dow was off more than four percent today. If any of your friends are confused, suggest they look at the balance in their 401(k) or IRA.

  125. 125.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    I’m gonna say less than 10 percent of the people in Trump’s audience have any fucking clue who Nigel Farage is.

    Nigel Farage is praising the President on stage

  126. 126.

    sdhays

    October 28, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    @Martin: Shouldn’t he be in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania because if he can’t win at least 2 of those, he’s cooked anyway, with or without Texas?

  127. 127.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 7:47 pm

    @MomSense: Nice.

  128. 128.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 7:47 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    I bet they are, though I’d pull the shades down. ?

  129. 129.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    @burnspbesq:

    The Covid death numbers are still going to outweigh Wall Street concerns. People are worried about what to do for Thanksgiving and I’m not sure how many people are going to care what the GDP is.

  130. 130.

    Sloane Ranger

    October 28, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: On behalf of the British people I apologise for the existence of Nigel Farage.

  131. 131.

    sdhays

    October 28, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    @Bill Arnold: It irritates me that anyone writes “Space Force” and not “Space Farce”, which is much more accurate.

    ETA: Not intended as admonishment to anyone here. More of just a comment on how absolutely stupid the whole thing is.

  132. 132.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    @Suzanne:

    I’ve been knitting wash/dishcloths that say FUCK 2020.  It’s therapeutic.  If anyone wants some, I’ll send them to you at cost.

    Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Leading Indicators

  133. 133.

    Mo Salad

    October 28, 2020 at 7:50 pm

    I’m still pissed that that area of Michigan has both a Chelsea and a Manchester but no Liverpool.

  134. 134.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 7:54 pm

    We all know Trump treats women like dogs but has sweet Jesus spanking Mary Magdalene’s ass while the apostles play a tune, Martha McSally has no self-respect. How embarrassing.

  135. 135.

    craigie

    October 28, 2020 at 7:54 pm

    @Geminid:

    If I were a Texas republican official…

    /pedant

  136. 136.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 7:54 pm

    @Baud: Damn, that’s good.

  137. 137.

    slightly_peeved

    October 28, 2020 at 7:55 pm

    @Martin:

    I believe the scenario is Biden losing PA & FL, but taking MI, WI and AZ.

    That gets him to 269, so NE-02 puts him over the top.

  138. 138.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 7:56 pm

    @Sloane Ranger: Yeah, well, mumble, mumble….

  139. 139.

    piratedan

    October 28, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    @Suzanne:  well we both have a sneaking suspicion just how crazy Mojave County is, I believe that is Paul Gosar’s stomping grounds, the guy who’s own family doesn’t even vote for him, so it would be a real shocker to find out that Kingman has some “issues”.

  140. 140.

    West of the Cascades

    October 28, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    @What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: “Mandate from the voters” is a useful response to Mitch, but “go fuck yourself” is simpler and useful even if the margin is a bare Democratic victory.

  141. 141.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    @MomSense:

    I’d be interested in a few of them, if you want to provide a link.

  142. 142.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    Vermont Secretary of State’s Office
    @VermontSOS
    We have formally requested that #SCOTUS correct the erroneous claim by Justice Kavanaugh that #VT has not changed voting procedures for the #2020Elections due to #COVID19. When it comes to issuing decisions on the voting rights of American citizens, facts matter.

    So funny.

  143. 143.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    @Sloane Ranger:

    Accepted. Sorry about Trump.

    @Kay:

    I just read that Tweet as well.

  144. 144.

    trollhattan

    October 28, 2020 at 7:58 pm

    @Rand Careaga:

    Let’s see Ben Sasse release an “I voted Biden” and then I’ll be impressed. Not that Flake’s video is unwelcome, but it’s an easy thing for a retired politician.

  145. 145.

    Ksmiami

    October 28, 2020 at 7:58 pm

    @Timurid: the market took a ginormous dump today and everyone knows the gdp numbers were pulling from q4

  146. 146.

    trollhattan

    October 28, 2020 at 7:59 pm

    @Kay:

    I’m beginning to get the impression perhaps Li’l Brett wasn’t a very hardworking student.

  147. 147.

    bluehill

    October 28, 2020 at 7:59 pm

    Given the record early voting numbers and assuming those leaning heavily dem, has anyone tried to figure out how much more repub turnout is needed in the swing states on 11/3 to counter? I saw some tweets that repub turnout was ramping up in FLA and matching the dems.

  148. 148.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    @Kay:

    Supreme Shade.

  149. 149.

    burnspbesq

    October 28, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    Kamala including a stop in McAllen on her Friday agenda feels like spiking the football.

    ‘If Biden carries the state, but MJ loses and Rs retain control of the Assembly, that will be a draw that feels like two points lost rather than one point gained.

  150. 150.

    zhena gogolia

    October 28, 2020 at 8:01 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I love that!

  151. 151.

    Sebastian

    October 28, 2020 at 8:02 pm

    @Sloane Ranger:

    My pet theory is that Trump’s rallies will achieve significant COVID spread among his base who will be too sick to vote on 11/3. Significant enough to be measurable and perhaps even giving us a surprise victory here and there.

  152. 152.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:03 pm

    @HumboldtBlue:

    I think the Trump justices have no earthly idea how much pushback there is going to be if they fuck with this election. People are just primed for a fight. Sick of it.

  153. 153.

    trollhattan

    October 28, 2020 at 8:03 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    Would be moar better if it read:

    “Contribute $5 RIGHT NOW and it becomes a MILLYUN DOLLARS!!!“

  154. 154.

    frosty

    October 28, 2020 at 8:04 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: It is he should be afraid not us.

    Yes! Thanks for this.

  155. 155.

    Ken

    October 28, 2020 at 8:06 pm

    @Sloane Ranger: Darn, we get the quiet, polite form of the British apology.  I was hoping for the invective-filled, spittle-flecked, three-paragraph tirade filled with unusual British slang that I have to look up in a dictionary.

  156. 156.

    Sloane Ranger

    October 28, 2020 at 8:07 pm

    @HumboldtBlue:

     

    Accepted. Sorry about Trump.

    @Kay:

    Accepted.

  157. 157.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 8:07 pm

    @debbie:

    I can’t get the Etsy link to my mostly dead page to work.  My shop is MaineCoastMade on etsy Message me and I’ll send some to you.  Let me know what colors you like.

    In the meantime I’ll try to restart my site

  158. 158.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    @Ken: Or try one more time to bed Noem and get a contract for his face on Rushmore.

  159. 159.

    Geminid

    October 28, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    @craigie: nah, not a pedant. Good correction.

  160. 160.

    Ken

    October 28, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    @Kay: Earlier today, I noted that the Court has always worked under the shadow of the other two branches saying, “Now, about that Marbury vs. Madision decision…”  Especially since Congress is given explicit authority to regulate and make exceptions to the Court’s appellate jurisdiction.

  161. 161.

    Calouste

    October 28, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    @Kay: I think that also a shot across the bow of the “Supreme” Court that the states (Democratic ones at least) are not going to abide by bullshit decisions the injustices hand down.

  162. 162.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    @Baud:

    “by Justice Kavanaugh”

    He has angered the voting experts.

  163. 163.

    germy

    October 28, 2020 at 8:10 pm

    Fun fact: Ivanka Trump once said that in her 20s, her ideal man was Christian Bale playing Patrick Bateman. Bale once said that he modeled his performance on her dad. Just meditate on that for a moment.

    — Vulture (@vulture) April 24, 2020

  164. 164.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 8:11 pm

    @Kay:

    To be fair, the justices are overworked.  Priority # 1 for the Dems is to get them some help.

  165. 165.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    @Calouste:

    Exactly. That’s why I’m so delighted.

    They are voting experts, state voting officials, and Covid has been hard for them. It’s a lot of additional work. The last thing they need is this creep barging in and creating chaos.

  166. 166.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    @Bill Arnold: Interested….

  167. 167.

    RaflW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    There’s something jus a little off about the syntax “I’ve authorized all gifts to increase their impact by 900%”.

    It implies a huge match, but at least of the letter text posted, match is never mentioned. This sounds like any number of Trump E.O.s that ‘authorize’ this or that, like his massively bogus pre-existing conditions E.O.

    So, be careful with your donation! );

  168. 168.

    Felanius Kootea

    October 28, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: Ugh.  She deserves to lose just for having no self-respect and putting up with that, but groveling is the new Republican way.

    Mark Kelly is a better human being and will be a much better Senator.

  169. 169.

    LurkerNoLonger

    October 28, 2020 at 8:12 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: It is he should be afraid not us.

    We are the ones who knock!

  170. 170.

    SFBayAreaGal

    October 28, 2020 at 8:13 pm

    @Baud: I like the way you think.

  171. 171.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:14 pm

    @Kay:

    I agree completely, I think the right wing is understimating the deep anger that’s being expressed peacefully (for the most part) right now but if they provide the spark this might erupt.

  172. 172.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:16 pm

    @Calouste:

    I believe it was the Penn. Gov who said something along the lines “John Roberts can rule as he wants he can then come to Pennsylvania and enforce his ruling.”

    People aren’t going to abide this shit.

  173. 173.

    PsiFighter37

    October 28, 2020 at 8:17 pm

    @burnspbesq:  The change in Texas was always going to come from the top of the ticket. Just look at VA – first Obama won it, then they broke VA’s habit of picking governors from opposite parties in 2013, now they control every part of state government, and next year we get to un-gerrymander the state and make it even more blue-friendly.

    In TX, the first step is Biden winning the state. If Dems pick off the State House, that will be a welcome – and ahead of its time – leap in terms of un-gerrymandering the state. I am optimistic that we will win a non-presidential statewide election this decade given how turbocharged Trump has accelerated the trends there.

  174. 174.

    PsiFighter37

    October 28, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: That was something you read on this blog…basically someone adapting what Andrew Jackson said after John Marshall ruled against him (believe it had to do with forced Cherokee relocation from Georgia). It would be great if someone clever enough for Wolf told him to do that, though, if it comes to it.

  175. 175.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    @Ken:

    They’re so good at the spittle-flecked invective because they practice!

  176. 176.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 8:20 pm

    @MomSense:

    Got it. Thanks.

  177. 177.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:20 pm

    @MomSense: Can you send me a photo so I can add it to this thread?

  178. 178.

    J R in WV

    October 28, 2020 at 8:21 pm

    @cain:

    …imagine the bathroom situation and various others – and then being out till early morning? WTF. I would be pissed at Biden if that happened to me.

    Why would you be pissed at Biden? It was Trump and his staff that fucked all those people!!!   …   ;~)

  179. 179.

    RaflW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:21 pm

    @Kay: Yesterday I started thinking about how long the drive would take from Minneapolis to DC. I’m thinking one motel night en route to protesting at the Court building. I’m that primed to flip out with anger.

  180. 180.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:22 pm

    @HumboldtBlue:

    I saw a thing on twitter where local media asked a voter who had been waiting hours to vote how long he had been waiting and he said “4 years”

    They  will not be thwarted :)

  181. 181.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:22 pm

    @MomSense: no items listed….

  182. 182.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    @PsiFighter37:

    That makes sense and you’re right, I did read it here.

    @Kay:

    The numbers don’t lie by tomorrow 80 million or so will have cast a ballot. We’ve never seen an election play out like this, then again, these are unprecedented times.

  183. 183.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    @Baud: It’s a kindness, really.

  184. 184.

    TS (the original)

    October 28, 2020 at 8:24 pm

    @Martin:

    There were probably more magas from Iowa at that virus spreader than from Omaha

  185. 185.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    Germy put this up:

    BREAKING: Supreme Court won’t expedite Republican request to stop extended deadline for receiving mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. New Justice Barrett did not participate

    — Robert Barnes (@scotusreporter) October 28, 2020

    What are the implications?  Seems like a big deal, why is no one commenting on this?

  186. 186.

    MomSense

    October 28, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Ok emailed it

  187. 187.

    schrodingers_cat

    October 28, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    @MomSense: Was he out of status? She needs to talk to a good immigration attorney ASAP. UMaine International Programs Office might be able to suggest someone.

  188. 188.

    CarolPW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    @MomSense: Put me down for 4 dishcloths, at a lot more than cost. I need stocking stuffers and am pissed as hell.

  189. 189.

    NotMax

    October 28, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    @RaflW

    While not completely analogous, I once drove non-stop (except for gasoline and potty interruptions) from Minneapolis to NYC in 21 hours. That was during the time the speed limit had been lowered to 55.

  190. 190.

    RaflW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    @burnspbesq: I think McAllen is about a longer play. Kamala is the obvious next potus front-runner. Rio Grande voters will be key to Texas being sustainably blue. If in a couple years she stumps there, she’ll be coming back to the region, not ‘finally seeking to make inroads with Latinos’ as our f*cking NYT would otherwise put it.

  191. 191.

    A Ghost to Most

    October 28, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    @schrodingers_cat

    That’s funny, and sad. Whatcha gonna do, bury him in postcards?

  192. 192.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    Photo from MomSense!

    Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Leading Indicators

  193. 193.

    PsiFighter37

    October 28, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    @WaterGirl: The implication is that Kavanaugh realized he made a mistake in referencing Bush v. Gore so explicitly, and Roberts (since they seem like buds) told him not to blow dry powder on an election that is looking more like a blowout. He likely also told Barrett not to bother participating as a result.

    Maybe that’s a cynical take, but Roberts is smart, and he realizes that SCOTUS and the court system will be the only bulwark against an increasingly progressive nation – so he is going to do his darndest to spend his bullets on offensive rulings once the threat of court rebalancing is past.

  194. 194.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:29 pm

    @MomSense: That looks great!  What are the dimensions?  Are these available in various colors?

  195. 195.

    MoCA Ace

    October 28, 2020 at 8:30 pm

    What little I think of Jeff Flake can fit comfortably in my empty bag of Fucks… with plenty of room for all of my concern for every republican ever.

  196. 196.

    Zzyzx

    October 28, 2020 at 8:31 pm

    @PsiFighter37: they are reserving the right to make the change retroactively, which is even worse. They can wait to see how PA is going before deciding to toss the votes.

  197. 197.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:31 pm

    Joy Reid brought on election experts to answer questions and concerns from folks have about the election. It’s more public service than news and much-needed right now.

  198. 198.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:31 pm

    @WaterGirl: here is my comment:.

    Lickspittle court declines invitation to fully reveal their nature as a lickspittle court.

    Alternative read: Trump Justices unwilling to fully break with the Chief Justice until after election results are in.

    Second alternative: Justice Beer has been sent to the penalty box until further notice and is not allowed to again stupidly open his yap for three months.

  199. 199.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    @PsiFighter37: @Immanentize:

    So does that mean PA can count the ballots that arrive after midnight Nov 3?

  200. 200.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    @WaterGirl: They aren’t rushing to get involved.  I would expect that they, like everyone else, would like this to resolve itself.  If there are enough votes that someone full on wins without getting into the weeds on postmarks, they don’t have to do squat.  I would bet that the majority of the Court would love to see this election go by without any more Court involvement.

  201. 201.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    @WaterGirl: pure!!!

  202. 202.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    @MomSense:

    That’s wonderful, great work.

  203. 203.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 28, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    I just got a campaign fund-raising email from Tim Curry for the Rocky Horror Reunion WI fundraiser

    Because 2020

    Maybe somebody cleverer than I could rewrite “You better wise up, Janet Weiss” to fit Susan Sarandon’s more recent blunders

  204. 204.

    RaflW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @NotMax: Yeah I don’t want to do the senior diaper/creepy stalker thing. My max daily duration is around nine actual at-the-wheel hours, plus stops.

    I once (18 years ago?) did Bakersfield to Albuquerque in one go, with no cruise control. Good God my right leg was wrecked. At least you could blast AZ at 80 right along with other traffic, I’m assuming the limit was 75 by then as I’m usually a 4 over sort of driver.

  205. 205.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @WaterGirl: There is a lot of comment on Josh Marshall’s twitter feed, and a post on SCOTUSblog

    Amy Howe Independent Contractor and Reporter, Posted Wed, October 28th, 2020 8:02 pm

    Court will not weigh in on Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballot deadline before election

    https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/10/court-will-not-weigh-in-on-pennsylvanias-mail-in-ballot-deadline-before-election/#more-297337

    As I understand it, it creates a problem since SCOTUS is not ruling on the merits now, just denying PA GOP opportunity to get the case resolved before the election. The main problem is if some court makes a final ruling after election day, then it sets up chance that the election rules are changed after the election takes place. So, maybe BS like this is the reason PA decided to segregate mail ballots that arrived after election day: that will make a quick clean count easier.

  206. 206.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @HumboldtBlue:

    It is. It’s wild. Just amazing turnout. The judges should just get out of the way. They’re not going to be able to hold this back.

  207. 207.

    MisterForkbeard

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @Immanentize: I think that’s basically correct.

    There’s no reason for them to get involved now. 3 conservative judges have said that they reserve the right to toss out a bunch of ballots after the election if they need to, but they can’t get into it now so they’re just going to shrug.

    Barrett didn’t participate because she doesn’t have clerks and didn’t have enough time to read any of briefs, etc. She didn’t recuse.

    All of it adds up to “we’re not going to make people really angry about throwing out these Democratic votes unless we need to do it to steal the election.”

  208. 208.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @MomSense: Here’s the link to donate to Amira’s memorial.

    This is just so fucking sad. My heart is in a million pieces for her mom.

  209. 209.

    sanjeevs

    October 28, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    Anyone know why the Pennsylvania early vote is so low?

    It’s only 32% of the total 2016 vote whilst Texas is 91%, Florida is 72%. Every other competitive state is at least 40%. Seems strange when it’s obviously going to be a focus of ratfuckery on election day.

     

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

  210. 210.

    chopper

    October 28, 2020 at 8:35 pm

    @MomSense:

    oh, i’m in. lamb runner at gmail (former all one word). screw it, i’ll take two.

  211. 211.

    PsiFighter37

    October 28, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @Zzyzx: No – Gorsuch, Alito, and Uncle Tom have that position. Which means that 5 on SCOTUS (liberals + Roberts + Kavanaugh) did not agree. So it’s a stupid temper tantrum that nonetheless should throw serious doubt on Gorsuch’s ability to be an impartial judge, despite a couple of his surprise rulings this past term in favor of the liberal position.

  212. 212.

    Zzyzx

    October 28, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @WaterGirl: No. They might separate them out and let the court later decide if they are to count or not.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-pennsylvania-mail-ballots/2020/10/28/fe78439a-1936-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html

    But he noted that the denial of the motion to take it up now “is not a denial of a request for this court to order that ballots received after election day be segregated so that if the State Supreme Court’s decision is ultimately overturned, a targeted remedy will be available.”

  213. 213.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @MoCA Ace: Jeff Flake is a total piece of shit. And he has that ultra-passive vaguely cheerful Mormon blandness covering the mendacity.

  214. 214.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @A Ghost to Most: Aside from bitching at us from the sidelines, what are you going to do?  Lead by example.  s_c became a fucking citizen so she could be a part of the process.  Can you top that?

  215. 215.

    frosty

    October 28, 2020 at 8:37 pm

    @Sloane Ranger: If you want to apologize, you have to get in line behind us for more reasons than I care to count right now.

  216. 216.

    PsiFighter37

    October 28, 2020 at 8:37 pm

    @sanjeevs: As someone who went to college in PA, it is very simple: Pennsylvania never had early voting before; it was Election Day or bust. So it is very likely an ingrained behavior for many residents. Same thing goes for NYC (aside from the dreadfully low number of locations set up) – this is the first major election where you could vote early, in person, in NY state, thanks to Democrats finally taking the State Senate from the GOP in 2018.

  217. 217.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 28, 2020 at 8:38 pm

    abandoning suburban housewives, trump decides to go all in on the Joe Rogan Meathead demo

    Aaron Rupar @atrupar · 4h
    Trump muses about how Joe Biden would fare if he fought in UFC, and how it would go if the two of them fought. Things are getting weird.

    Tomorrow, Joe Biden challenges trump to no-handsies ramp race.

  218. 218.

    Zzyzx

    October 28, 2020 at 8:38 pm

    @sanjeevs:

    because it’s more difficult to get the ability to early vote there as opposed to other states. A friend of mine in Philly reported 3-4 hour waits to get ballots.

  219. 219.

    Redshift

    October 28, 2020 at 8:38 pm

    @burnspbesq: There’s plenty of poli sci research that the measurable effect of “the economy” on elections is based on people’s personal experience of how the economy is, not announcements of government statistics. I’m always mildly amused at how GOP administrations try to manipulate the stats because they think it will help somehow. And in addition, we are well past the point when economic trends have that effect. Let Trump crow.

  220. 220.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 8:39 pm

    @WaterGirl: Dude I need some. Christmas is coming and I have some family who will find those hilarious. MomSense, do you have a link or an Etsy?

  221. 221.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:39 pm

    @PsiFighter37: ” Maybe that’s a cynical take, but Roberts is smart, and he realizes that SCOTUS and the court system will be the only bulwark against an increasingly progressive nation ”

    Every adult who can function on his or her own in the world has a longer time horizon than Trump. One hope for avoiding horrible court decisions that will have to be fixed somehow in the future is that the long game people in the GOP decide that their best chance over long term is to cut Trump loose this November. They figure their crooked judges can hold things off until they can retool and rebuild. I admit that is a hope, we can’t count on it.

    Not sure how this changes D strategy, the plan was always to GOTV through their voters as early as possible, and also go after early in-person voting wherever possible where covid risk was acceptable.

  222. 222.

    Kay

    October 28, 2020 at 8:39 pm

    OMG:

    Martha McSally has done everything she can to appeal to Trump & his base This is how he introduced her: “Just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let’s go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on”

  223. 223.

    sanjeevs

    October 28, 2020 at 8:40 pm

    @PsiFighter37: Ok thanks

  224. 224.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    @Kay:

    And as Omnes and Forkbeard have pointed out the SC wants this election to be decided without them.

  225. 225.

    RaflW

    October 28, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    @sanjeevs: Texas has had no excuse early voting for decades. I’m pretty sure I early voted at my food coop in a state election, and I left TX in 1995. I’d bet PA has been one of the restrictive, difficult to excuse absentee states before this election. It takes a while for people used to election day voting to shift.

  226. 226.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:43 pm

    @WaterGirl: Yes.  Until further notice?

    It’s actually a very interesting breakdown of theories.  Roberts says that State Courts can have a say about State election laws, but federal courts cannot.  Kav/Gorsuch say only State legislatures

      have power over election means and procedures.

      The latter opinion is a novel crazy position, because, reading Article I like that probably also means the SCOTUS cannot overturn CONGRESSIONAL acts restricting state legislatures. Because the very same article relied on by K/G and the 14th and 15th give express Congressional grants re: voting.

      If K/G are right, Holder (striking down Sec. 5) is unconstitutional as a Court intrusion into a political Q.

      Roberts sees the trap. The new Portnoys miss it.

  227. 227.

    Suzanne

    October 28, 2020 at 8:43 pm

    @sanjeevs: As someone who just moved to PA, I can also tell you that first-time voters in PA have to vote in person, and early voting here isn’t the same as early voting in other states. You have to request the ballot via mail before you go to vote, then bring it with you. It’s not like on Election Day where you just show up with your ID.

  228. 228.

    JMG

    October 28, 2020 at 8:44 pm

    @RaflW: Texas southern border territory is very Democratic, but also a low turnout area. Harris’s visit is to try and boost late turnout. They really think they can win Texas.

  229. 229.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 8:45 pm

    @Suzanne:

    Here.

  230. 230.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 8:46 pm

    @Kay:

    And did she obey like a good little girl?

  231. 231.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:46 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeeshush Lord in Heaven. I looked at that thread. Things got weird long before that clip.

    At least Trump is reaching for new material for that open-mic standup night patter he does at his rallies. Kind of late to try that kind of edgy stuff out, though.

    Might make for some good clips for last minute oppo ads that, I think correctly, make the case that besides everything else, Trump is a fricken nutcase. Don’t have to fake anything or take anything out of context.

  232. 232.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 28, 2020 at 8:46 pm

    @Kay: video

    he’s too bored by the sound of other people’s voices, and she’s a girl, and she’s making him look bad by losing

    couldn’t happen to more self-debasing hack

    I’ve noticed in the last few days that after insisting the prop-people on camera behind him wear masks, they’re not bothering anymore. Bored with that, too.

  233. 233.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:46 pm

    Appreciate all the answers on the FSC.  (Fucking Supreme Court)

  234. 234.

    Kathleen

    October 28, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: I. LOVE. THAT. AD. Loved your shout out to PeNoone

  235. 235.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    @PsiFighter37: I think the actual count/makeup is unknown. It takes 5 to overturn a stay.  There are only eight participating.  Same result, no stay lifting.

  236. 236.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    @Immanentize: I feel like the stories of reading the Talmud and you have to stop and research this or that and then go back to reading.  Now I have to go see what the heck Section 5 is.

  237. 237.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:49 pm

    @debbie:

    Yup

  238. 238.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:51 pm

    @Immanentize: I read that the totally corrupt reactionaries’ theory also says that state legislature action can over rule state constitution on election law. Did I misunderstand that? That seems too crazy. And if the courts can’t rule on what state constitution says, who can?

    Seems to over ride the conservative legal maxim that where rules can be violated, a remedy must be found (IIRC).

    IANAL, help help! BJ legal flying wedge, please help me.

  239. 239.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    Someone asked online which person has really taken center stage during the pandemic and election. Lots of Sarah Coopers and such, but for me it’s Pete Buttigieg.

    I paid him no mind during the primary but he’s been on fire for the past few weeks.

  240. 240.

    H.E.Wolf

    October 28, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    @A Ghost to Most: That’s funny, and sad. Whatcha gonna do, bury him in postcards?

    Well, while some folks have been kvetching on the sidelines, that’s exactly what many of us have been doing. :)

    3 million+ GOTV postcards have been mailed to FL Democrats in the past 2 years by one volunteer group alone:  http://PostcardsToVoters.org… that’s enough to bury the entire Mar-A-Lago compound (consults seat of pants) oh, about 7 feet deep.
    /math genius

    ETA: not a link genius, but I think I fixed it.

  241. 241.

    Redshift

    October 28, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    @jl:

    Not sure how this changes D strategy, the plan was always to GOTV through their voters as early as possible, and also go after early in-person voting wherever possible where covid risk was acceptable 

    Yep, the briefing we got back in September from the Virginia campaign was that we were going to be encouraging people to request ballots or make a plan for early voting if they felt they could safely, then follow up with making sure they received and returned their ballots, and around mid-October tell them not to mail them, either drop them off or vote in person instead.

    (I’ve seen a few posts on Twitter this week from activist types who should know better than “omg, we should organize to make sure people drop off their ballots instead of mailing them more!” Are they not even checking with the campaign, or do they just assume the campaign can’t possibly be as smart as them?)

  242. 242.

    frosty

    October 28, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    @sanjeevs: PA doesn’t start counting early votes until election day. If you want to make sure your vote is counted in time, it’s best to vote in person 11/3.

  243. 243.

    H.E.Wolf

    October 28, 2020 at 8:56 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: s_c became a fucking citizen so she could be a part of the process.

    And furthermore, schrodingers_cat has been a politically active citizen, for which I have the utmost respect. Thank you for your service!

  244. 244.

    MoCA Ace

    October 28, 2020 at 8:57 pm

    @Kay:

    That’s his standard patter with hookers too!

  245. 245.

    Sab

    October 28, 2020 at 8:57 pm

    @Isua: Home of Jiffy cornbread mix.

  246. 246.

    zhena gogolia

    October 28, 2020 at 8:57 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: 
    Pete is fantastic!

  247. 247.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 28, 2020 at 8:58 pm

    @Immanentize: I think it is a big chunk of your second alternative.

  248. 248.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 8:58 pm

    @jl: The pure idea is that because the Constitution, Art. 1 voting clause basically reserves the manner and means of voting to state legislatures — as far as federal Courts are concerned under the US constitution — State legislative actions trump State laws and constitutions but do not trump US constitutional provisions.  It’s one of the worst textualist or Originalist theories evah!

    Art. I, Sec. IV:

    The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but Congress may at any time make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Place of chusing Senators.

  249. 249.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 8:58 pm

    @Redshift: Thanks for your reports, I appreciate it. I’m just doing some random phone banking when I can this year, mainly giving $.

  250. 250.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 9:00 pm

    • @Omnes Omnibus: me too
      I mean, what an idiot move when credibility is already being questioned. Justice Beer just had an entire STATE! (Vermont) rebuke him for sloppy research. I never saw that before.
  251. 251.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 9:01 pm

    @Immanentize:

    why does that clause apply to the electoral college?

  252. 252.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 9:01 pm

    @Redshift: ‘ they just assume the campaign can’t possibly be as smart as them? ‘

    I’ve notice a lot of twitterers assume that about everyone. Sometimes I wonder how many are paid trolls to confuse things on that platform.  But, a lot of self-righteous arrogant people in the world, and twitter seems to be an irresistible magnet for them.

  253. 253.

    J R in WV

    October 28, 2020 at 9:03 pm

    @JMG:

    My RWNJ brother lives in Texas, loves it there. He has a gun safe that when they move, a special forklift comes into the house to move it out to the moving truck. Recently moved into a “Villages” like retirement community just north of San Antonio. 3 gold courses, two gun ranges.

    So hoping TX becomes a blue state starting RIGHT FUCKING NOW!!!

  254. 254.

    jl

    October 28, 2020 at 9:03 pm

    @Immanentize: thanks, I guess that answers my question about the oddities of the reactionaries’ position.

  255. 255.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 9:05 pm

    @Baud: it doesn’t directly in its language, but remember we do not vote for candidates. We vote in reality for electors who represent candidates. Still.

  256. 256.

    HumboldtBlue

    October 28, 2020 at 9:05 pm

    @zhena gogolia: 

    He really is and he’s got one hell of a bright future.

  257. 257.

    Sally

    October 28, 2020 at 9:07 pm

    @Felanius Kootea: You have just explained why trump has vetoed Ms Okonjo-Iweala. She’s black, competent, sane, not a yes person, EVERYONE else likes her for that role at the WTO, which trump also hates, and I’d add that she’s female. Can’t have ANY of that now, can we!
    Please ignore him, delegates!

  258. 258.

    Jinchi

    October 28, 2020 at 9:07 pm

    @Frank Wilhoit: He didn’t reveal himself sooner because his position would not have lent him any credibility.

    He’d already revealed himself as a former Trump official who’d defected. Admitting to writing the Anonymous article actually makes him less credible.

  259. 259.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 9:08 pm

    @J R in WV: I have comments about such places north of San Antonio.  Hate them!  But I gotta sleep.  Long damn day.

  260. 260.

    Baud

    October 28, 2020 at 9:09 pm

    @Immanentize:

    : it doesn’t directly in its language,

    seems problematic, if you’re going to overturn a state court decision interpreting state law on ballots for electors.

    of course, all these ballots also include congressional races, so that really does implicate down ticket races.

  261. 261.

    debbie

    October 28, 2020 at 9:11 pm

    @Immanentize:

    Sounds like he’s one of the low-quality hires Kay refers to so often.

  262. 262.

    Geminid

    October 28, 2020 at 9:13 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Last night Joni Ernst went over to Omaha for the trump rally and sat in the crowd. All she got was a perfunctory shout out, even though a (male) Iowa congressional candidate was on the stage, with a speaking role. I think trump knows he’s losing badly, his campaign is broke, and he just does not give a shit.     That’s why if I were a republican official, I would not want him in my state. He is going to be horrible the next few days.

  263. 263.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 9:14 pm

    @Baud: It’s crazy!  Roberts sees that problem and believes it is a federalism problem.  Justice Beer says it’s a textualist grant of power solely to State legislatures.  Considering the framers really were suspicious of State legislative tyranny — with ironically the PA legislature as exhibit one of excessive legislative power — it is Crazy Eddie INSANE to think the Framers intended such power to reside solely in a State legislature without other State legal constraints.

  264. 264.

    Immanentize

    October 28, 2020 at 9:15 pm

    @debbie: it seems there may be three such low quality hires now on the Court.

  265. 265.

    Tenar Arha

    October 28, 2020 at 9:18 pm

    @WaterGirl: it’s this

    When the Supreme Court says that it won’t toss out a bunch of ballots today, but it might do so in a week, that’s NOT a win for voting rights. vox article

     

  266. 266.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    October 28, 2020 at 9:25 pm

    @cain: I think this is a preview of what Trump will do after the election; lash how at his base for not loving him enough.

  267. 267.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    @Tenar Arha: Thanks, reading now.

  268. 268.

    Geminid

    October 28, 2020 at 9:36 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: I think trump even more will lash out at republican office holders for not standing up for him. Even though he always got their votes on legislation. His loss will be their fault, because it can’t be his fault. And he has no loyalty to anyone but himself.

  269. 269.

    geg6

    October 28, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    @Suzanne:

    You don’t need ID to vote in PA.  Just want to be sure the correct info is here.  No ID is required in PA.  Was a big court case over it a few years ago and the PA SC said it was unconstitutional under the state constitution.

  270. 270.

    Bill Arnold

    October 28, 2020 at 9:41 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Trump muses about how Joe Biden would fare if he fought in UFC, and how it would go if the two of them fought.

    Donald J. Trump, who went to a military high school, Does Not Know How To Make A Fist!.
    Seriously. The “fists” in his “fist pumps” would break if they hit something hard like bone. The thumb needs to be tight against the fingers.
    (this from 2016 says that he got into physical altercations in high school. His current “fists” suggest that they were not fistfights.)

  271. 271.

    WaterGirl

    October 28, 2020 at 9:52 pm

    @Tenar Arha: That lays it out very clearly.  Thank you.

  272. 272.

    Middlelee

    October 28, 2020 at 10:09 pm

    @MomSense:   I am really late to the thread and you may never see this.  I would love some of your dishcloths.  Like 10.  It would do my whole Xmas shopping list.

  273. 273.

    Ohio Mom

    October 28, 2020 at 10:16 pm

    Isua & Sab : we ate in that great restaurant — it was a surprise there was a restaurant like that in such a small, out-of-the-way town but I think that reflects Jeff Daniel’s influence on Chelsea.

    And we ate there after touring the Jiffy Mix plant. Which was filled with what must have been original, creaky, rickety-ticky equipment — mixers, conveyers, everything looked ancient.

    We also stopped in Holland, which I believe is where Betsy DeVos hails from. Whole place had a weird antiseptic vibe.

  274. 274.

    Ohio Mom

    October 28, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    Middlelee:

    Momsense contact info can be found above in comment #157.

  275. 275.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 28, 2020 at 10:26 pm

    @WaterGirl: Sounds like they’re not stating the ballots can’t be counted, but are reserving the right to order them shredded AFTER the election. Worst of both worlds.

    It’s gotten to the point that I’m suspicious of any report that SCOTUS will allow counting of late ballots; it sounds like a trap, to get people to vote that way so their ballots can be invalidated later.

  276. 276.

    Achrachno

    October 28, 2020 at 10:27 pm

    @Martin: Why do we even think the numbers will be accurate?  Trump has corrupted all agencies and has them doing tricks for his benefit.

  277. 277.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    October 28, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    @PsiFighter37: Maybe that’s a cynical take, but Roberts is smart, and he realizes that SCOTUS and the court system will be the only bulwark against an increasingly progressive nation – so he is going to do his darndest to spend his bullets on offensive rulings once the threat of court rebalancing is past.

    Federalist aren’t there for the Culture Wars,  they are all about Corporate Citizenship.  My prediction is they will let their freak flag fly over the tax increases to pay for the pandemic control.

  278. 278.

    brantl

    October 28, 2020 at 10:49 pm

    Flake is just Collins  or Murkowski in drag, he was feckless about Kavanaugh.

  279. 279.

    Uncle Cosmo

    October 28, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: Niggle Falange? Once the Brits get their country back from BoJo & Fiends, he’ll be near the front of the line for the woodchipper.

  280. 280.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    October 28, 2020 at 11:03 pm

    @Geminid: He has, but it’s harder for him to hurt them directly like he did to those rally goers. Think about it, he literally abandoned them in the cold.

  281. 281.

    Middlelee

    October 28, 2020 at 11:15 pm

    @Ohio Mom:   TY

  282. 282.

    mvr

    October 28, 2020 at 11:42 pm

    I’ll just say that Flake has more integrity than Sasse, one of my two bad senators, who has gotten way to much cred for no real opposition.

  283. 283.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio

    October 28, 2020 at 11:54 pm

    @MomSense: 
    That was impressive, and 100% Maine. She didn’t actually suggest her fellow governor pour herself a nice big cup of pumpkin-spice Shut-the-Fuck-Up, but you could see the thought was there.

  284. 284.

    Kent

    October 29, 2020 at 1:05 am

    Something really big is happening in Texas folks.

    With almost a week left until election day, the early vote in Texas is already at 91.2% of the total vote in 2016. Yes, the state has grown, but wow.  The state is lit right now and leading the nation in the number of early votes with 8.2 million already cast

    We are completely off the map right now.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

  285. 285.

    rikyrah

    October 29, 2020 at 1:46 am

    @MomSense: 
    ????

  286. 286.

    rikyrah

    October 29, 2020 at 1:51 am

    @MomSense:

    How can I get a couple?

  287. 287.

    MomSense

    October 29, 2020 at 12:16 pm

    Sorry I fell asleep early last night.  I’ll go through the thread and pull nyms and numbers.  You can also message me on my old Etsy.  Right now I have the same color as in the picture, teal and off white. If there are other colors you want let me know and I’ll pick them up.  The cloths are all cotton and machine washable.

  288. 288.

    Aleta

    October 29, 2020 at 2:13 pm

    @MomSense:   @MomSense:

    I searched but wasn’t able to find your shop to message you on etsy; no idea why.  Yes I’d love some, or even 1.  … 5-6  if possible, to give to a few people here who need encouraging after hard year.  Any blue or teal or any color.  Thanks.

    Also wondering if you take orders, for $, for other small things?

    gmail:  2sawhorses at ….

  289. 289.

    No One You Know

    October 29, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    @Tim C.:  I blame the fascists who show up to turn peaceful street theater into street threatener. And then go into hiding.

  290. 290.

    Miss Bianca

    October 29, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    @Ohio Mom:  Chelsea, MI

    The Purple Rose Theater

    Yeah, I know it’s a dead thread

  291. 291.

    MomSense

    October 29, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    @a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio: 
    Full disclosure, I am very close with the family. One of the best nights of this summer was my youngest playing guitar and our gov singing along. They share a favorite song and songwriter. Dylan of course. She had some good stories about him from when they were both in San Fran.

  292. 292.

    rikyrah

    October 29, 2020 at 11:26 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I love this??

  293. 293.

    rikyrah

    October 29, 2020 at 11:28 pm

    @Suzanne:

    ????

  294. 294.

    frosty

    October 29, 2020 at 11:35 pm

    @geg6: @Suzanne: Dead thread but here’s the answer anyway. First time and infrequent voters need an ID. I asked the election judge in 2016 why so many voters were getting asked for it and that was his answer. Unfortunately they were all new Trump voters.

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