Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Thanks for reminding me that Van Jones needs to be slapped.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

T R E 4 5 O N

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

The revolution will be supervised.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

“woke” is the new caravan.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Biden-Harris 2020 / Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Patience (Never A Fan, Me)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Patience (Never A Fan, Me)

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How I feel about this week:


I know, I know! — we need to scramble and garner every possible vote. But still.

… Democrats hold a significant advantage in early voting due to their embrace of mail balloting, which Republicans have historically cast in large numbers but have shunned amid repeated and unfounded attacks by Trump, who says the system is prone to widespread fraud.

Overall, Democrats hold roughly a two-to-one advantage in early voting numbers. However, Republicans in recent weeks have narrowed the gap in early, in-person voting, data shows.

The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the U.S. Elections Project, to predict a record U.S. voter turnout of about 150 million, representing 65% of those eligible to vote, the highest rate since 1908…

Bonus: Russian prognostications!

Reader Interactions

265Comments

  9. 9.

    Ohio Mom

    OzarkHillbilly: Good luck, wishing you good findings!

    I had gum surgery yesterday. It has distracted me from tne election, so that’s something.

  11. 11.

    germy

    Local sources in Nebraska are reporting that Trump's rally in Omaha left hundreds of people stranded when buses failed to return people to their cars and at least dozens are suffering hypothermia and need medical aid.

    This is how Trump has run everything the last four years.

    — JRehling (@JRehling) October 28, 2020

    Thousands of people left out in the cold and stranded in #Omaha, #Nebraska after a #Trump rally. I’m told the shuttles aren’t operating & there aren’t enough busses. Police didn’t seem to know what to do. Some walked. I saw at least one woman getting medical attention. pic.twitter.com/oIkmixaZt0

    — Jeff Paul (@Jeff_Paul) October 28, 2020

    This is the crowd that chanted “Lock Biden up” so… no pity.

  15. 15.

    germy

    President Trump took off in Air Force One 1 hr 20 minutes ago, but thousands of his supporters remain stranded on a dark road outside the rally. “We need at least 30 more buses,” an Omaha police officer just said, shaking his head at the chaotic cluster that is unfolding.

    — Jeff Zeleny (@jeffzeleny) October 28, 2020

  17. 17.

    hueyplong

    @germy: Hope that Omaha area story gets non-stop play from now through next Tuesday.

    Would love to pick up that stray EV in Nebraska.

  18. 18.

    germy

    @debbie:

    If you aren’t paying attention to this absolute shitshow in Omaha in the wake of Trump‘s rally, you should be. They bussed supporters in then effectively left them to walk several miles in the cold back to their cars. Several taken to the hospital. This is Trump in a nutshell. https://t.co/4zeEuIaL1m

    — Rex Huppke (@RexHuppke) October 28, 2020

  20. 20.

    JPL

    @hueyplong:  trump is finding new ways to make it more difficult to vote.   Do you suppose one of his aides will let him know that he’s not suppose to cause his supporters to get sick.

  21. 21.

    germy

    The Horn Blows At Midnight

    McConnell toots his own horn.

    “At the risk of tooting my own horn, look at the majority leaders since L.B.J. and find another one who was able to do something as consequential as this.”

    https://t.co/2jMD9lBU2U via @hillhulse

    — Annie Karni (@anniekarni) October 28, 2020

    Getting party line votes for judicial nominees is trivially easy (and a trivially easy thing for a future majority to neutralize). McConnell is a sub-middling legislator. https://t.co/Wcr9sJyUMq

    — Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) October 28, 2020

  24. 24.

    hueyplong

    @JPL: The great thing about abject toadyism is that the toadies never make suggestions even arguably inconsistent with The Leader’s most recent pronouncement.

    So, no, the events/abuse will continue until (Trump’s)  morale improves.

  29. 29.

    Ken

    @debbie: According to NPR, Quakers are planning in the event there is a coup.

    There’s a secret clause in their denominational rules that allow them to drop the pacifism for one day a century, Purge style.  But the real twist is that they’re all ninja-trained.

  31. 31.

    germy

    We’re up to five now?

    NEW: there are over 5 mistakes/inaccuracies in Brett Kavanaugh’s “steal the election for Trump” opinion from yesterday — which legal scholars are calling one of the most poorly written and inappropriately sourced opinions in Supreme Court history.— Kaivan Shroff (@KaivanShroff) October 27, 2020

    Justice Kavanaugh KNOWS how this works. He was on a team in Florida that argued for the inclusion of ballots received 10+ days after election day, and pressed counties to change their totals over THANKSGIVING weekend. He knows. https://t.co/yn8kRohQM8— Ronald Klain (@RonaldKlain) October 27, 2020

  33. 33.

    Gin & Tonic

    @raven: After Cash pulled Snell and Betts hit a double I said it’s over and went to bed.

    One of the worst managerial decisions I’ve seen.

  34. 34.

    mali muso

    @rikyrah: 

    Got an email last night telling me that my mail ballot was accepted

    Congratulations! One more vote cast for the good guys. Good morning. :)

  37. 37.

    Lapassionara

    @germy: One of the things I clearly remember about Florida was that there were still mailed votes to count, and that they had to be postmarked by Election Day, but could be received after. Many of these would be from people in the military. This opinion is utter bullshit.

  38. 38.

    Ken

    @germy: He’s not planning to return to Nebraska, so why pay for the shuttles after the event?  It reminds me of the Romney campaign cancelling their people’s credit cards on election night.

  42. 42.

    Kathleen

    @debbie: Wonder if our vaunted media will cover that or Trump’s comment at a rally yesterday when he said in 3 weeks when Biden is gone will Kamala be ready. On phone or would link to Twitter threads. Hopefully germy has it covered.

  44. 44.

    Kay

    @germy:

    Justice Kavanaugh KNOWS how this works. He was on a team in Florida that argued for the inclusion of ballots received 10+ days after election day, and pressed counties to change their totals over THANKSGIVING weekend. He knows.

    That doesn’t mean he “knows” anything. They can argue anything. Someone told him that was the plan and he followed it.
    The hoops that people will jump thru to deny that he’s ignorant and sloppy are amazing. Is it really impossible that he got this far this lazy and stupid? No, of course it’s not.
    He didn’t read the study he cited. They did a review of the 50 states looking for one that didn’t change covid rules on balloting and missed Vermont because it came out of the executive and not legislative and they weren’t looking for that. This isn’t complicated. It’s garbage work. He’s judged on the work, not beliefs or opinions people have on how smart he is.

  45. 45.

    trnc

    @germy: DT is just seeing how far he can push his voters. Next week: “I can shoot my own rally attendees and they’ll still vote for me. Watch this (orders gunfire into the crowd).”

  46. 46.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @debbie: I can speak to that. George Lakey is a Quaker activist who has been writing the book on nonviolent protest since the early 60s. He has helped train activists all over the world on how to resist and overcome coups nonviolently.

    I heard his seminar a couple of weeks ago on this subject. Posted about it here.

    I’ll see if I can locate the web page he has put up, but it’s basically “10 steps for resisting a coup”.

  48. 48.

    hueyplong

    @Gin & Tonic: Agree, but it was only the 6th inning, and he would have been pulled at some point prior to the end of the 7th in any event.  Not 100% sure, but I think Buck said that the last time Snell went 6 full was in mid-2019.

    Sooner or later Betts was going to face a non-Snell.

    The problem was that they were only up 1-0 at the time.  They had a shot to put up a crooked number in the first, and when they didn’t Smoltz’s repeated “it’s just as well he’s up only 1-0” nonsense was a constant irritant.

  55. 55.

    Geminid

    @Ken: When the Civil War began, there was a Quaker community in Loudon County, northern Virginia. Some of them formed a cavalry unit to fight Confederate raiders.

  60. 60.

    Chyron HR

    @germy:

    “At the risk of tooting my own horn, look at the majority leaders since L.B.J. and find another one who was able to do something as consequential as this.”

    Is he boasting that he had RBG killed? It’s irresponsible not to investigate.

  62. 62.

    satby

    It’s harder and harder for me to accomplish anything any more with this pervasive exhaustion I feel about everything: the election, the spiking virus soon to be followed by spiking death, and the impossibility of living with some of these people after the election. Granted my work schedule is no help. I don’t think I’ll start to feel better even if Biden wins and we take the Senate until after he’s sworn in and things can start to improve.

    And please no chirpy suggestions about “things I can do”. I’ve worked on GoTV or as an election judge every election since I was 16 (that’s 50 years next year). To me that’s just normal requirements of citizenship, like washing your dishes, and it doesn’t cheer me up to do dishes either. Just something I have to wait out for the next almost three months.

  63. 63.

    Jeffro

    @Danielx:Six days and a wake up to go. I may develop an ulcer.

    I hear you.  My liver has to be looking like Rocky at the end of ROCKY (and also ROCKY IV) at this point.

  65. 65.

    Gin & Tonic

    @hueyplong: I know Snell wouldn’t have gone 9, and LA might have won later anyway. But you can over-do the analytics – playoff baseball is also about emotion and “feel,” and it was obvious when Cash came out that it was going the other way immediately.

    Whatever. They’ll have all winter to second-guess it.

  66. 66.

    TS (the original)

    I don’t think anything will stop the political media canvassing for trump. Here is a wapo heading re new polls

    Biden leads Trump narrowly in Michigan, significantly in Wisconsin

    So my bp rises & I’m thinking is Biden only ahead a couple of points in Michigan and then I check the polls

    Michigan   51:44    Plus 7 points. The margin of error is +/-4  so the poll has to be out those 4 points on both sides of the equation for trump to win this. Lets take that +/-4 in the other direction, Biden would be ahead  55:40.  These margins work in both directions, but to read the media, they only work for trump.

    Wisconsin 57:40  Plus 17 points. That isn’t just significant, that is overwhelming, that is not recoverable, that is landslide territory

  68. 68.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kathleen: That’s actually a version of a line he’s been using for a while–insinuating that Kamala Harris is going to have Joe Biden assassinated. As usual, I assume he’s projecting his own wishes onto other people.

  69. 69.

    debbie

    @Kathleen:

    I saw that. I also noticed, watching the clips on local news and on Colbert, that Trump is back to using that white power sign in addition to his accordion hands.

  70. 70.

    Jeffro

    @germy: Kavanaugh’s worth holding hearings on this spring.  Not (necessarily) to impeach but to review how he perjured himself during his confirmation hearings, and to get to the bottom of who secretly paid off all his debts, and why.

    Maybe by then we’ll know more about Justice Kennedy’s retirement and any links to his son at Deutsche Bank, etc etc.

    Kind of far down the to-do list, I know.  But still.

  71. 71.

    Zzyzx

    @TS (the original):

    That’s not working for Trump. They’ve started doing that all the time in the last 8 years or so, no matter who is leading.

    As for me, I just made myself a soothing playlist, and I’m listening to it every morning when I wake up until this is over and/or I have to switch to an angry one.

  72. 72.

    satby

    @NotMax: Yes, market and now doctor’s office, where I am stealth manager plus trying to roll out a new electronic records system that has to interact with all the doctor’s exam instruments.

    Ok, stress might just be a factor too.

  74. 74.

    Baud

    @satby:

    It’s harder and harder for me to accomplish anything any more with this pervasive exhaustion I feel about everything

    Right there with you, sister.

  75. 75.

    Matt McIrvin

    (I remember, back during the GWB years, hearing some Democrats speculate that Dick Cheney was going to have Bush assassinated. But why would he? He seemed perfectly content being the grand vizier pulling the President’s strings. Let the trained monkey handle the boring ribbon-cuttings and such.)

  76. 76.

    Gin & Tonic

    @germy:

    A brilliant riposte

    After 2 weeks of multiple health screens and asking everyone to quarantine, I surprised my closest inner circle with a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time. pic.twitter.com/FRLaCSe11J
    — MoMA The Museum of Modern Art (@MuseumModernArt) October 27, 2020

  81. 81.

    Ken

    @Jeffro: “Justice Kavanaugh, some scurrilous and, I’m sure, baseless rumors have been circulating about your debts. I’m sure you welcome this opportunity to clear your name.” — Opening statement by the chair of the House Select Committee on Judicial Corruption

  82. 82.

    danielx

    @Jeffro:

    That too – I’ve had to dial back on consumption.

    ETA: though I may invest in a bottle of good bubbly for election night.

  84. 84.

    Ken

    @Gin & Tonic: I also saw one with pictures from Jurassic Park – the part where Hammond, Grant, and Ellie were ooh-ing and aah-ing at the dinosaurs, before the eek-ing and dying.

  85. 85.

    Kay

    @TS (the original):

    Trump had such a narrow path that one or two of these states (depending) going to Biden takes him out of it. If you look at the coverage they focus on each state as the polling comes out, and you can do that- focus on Florida, focus on Pennsylvania- but when you put them together it looks much, much worse for Trump and in reality, of course, they will be put together.

  87. 87.

    Immanentize

    @satby: I have classes and meetings I have to attend every day on zoom.  Then I have to make dinner, pet the cat, occasional bathroom breaks.  Outside of the needful, I really can barely muster energy to read….  I felt a bit like this during Clinton’s impeachment.  Mind just elsewhere.  Hoping for relief in a week.

  88. 88.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @satby: I’m having trouble even reading a novel, much less writing one. I’m  very distracted by my awareness of multiple possible disasters.

    I should tell BJ though that they helped me do something that made me feel better. Remember that story you all were making up about the stolen car that turned out to be haunted by the ashes of a cat and dog in the trunk? Last week, unable to write anything serious, I wrote that as a 1000 word flash fic an sent it out on its journey through the publishing world. I’ll let you know if it ever gets accepted anywhere. It made me laugh and sort of freed me up to write it, so thank you.

  89. 89.

    Tony Jay

     

    Over in the Corporate Franchise of Lesser Brexitannia the Conservative Party Mascot known as Al “Flobalob” Johnson has been having a bit of a bad day/week/month/year as doubts about his ability to perform at this level have spread from the back pages of rational, informed debate to the front pages of general consensus. He’s always been a nasty, unethical shitbag masquerading as a charmingly witless buffoon, but since Covid-19 arrived on these shores last winter it has slowly started to dawn on his dedicated Media fluffers and the minority of the electorate who thought that simply cosplaying as the bastard child of Winston Churchill and Bertie Wooster while hurting the right people was the same thing as being qualified for top-level leadership that maybe, just maybe, the funny fat man with the fluffy barnet wasn’t quite up to the job of handling a national crisis.

    Out on the wind-scoured plains of Common Sense the aged figure of Chief Yadonsay Wattashoka lifts his weary head and raises one sarcastic eyebrow.

    It’s the same story as with the other faux-populist extremists who rode the wave of ‘economic anxiety’ and right-wing media domination into office only for their program of corruption, cruelty and ‘conservative values’ to run smack bang into uncaring reality. Covid doesn’t care how many news-cycles you can ‘win’ through owning and appointing the refs, it just spreads where it can and does what it does to the people it infects. The foreign-backed political machine Flobalob fronts for was constructed out of the lowest quality raw material available to do one job, exploit the chaotic Brexit process in order to turn the United Kingdom into a low-wage, zero-regulation enclave of naked Libertarian barbarism while using the politics of flag-draped nationalism and crab-barrel division to undermine opposition with the assistance of a rabidly far-Right Media. What it most assuredly was not constructed to do was act quickly and decisively in the national interest by throwing the full weight of Government power behind the kind of complicated nationalised but decentralised program of state-aid and collective action required to control a pandemic and maintain social cohesion while awaiting the magic bullet of a vaccine. That kind of dirty, socialist nonsense does not fly with the Conservative Party’s base of radicalised racist IGMFY moral scolds, and it runs completely counter to the wants and needs of the Party’s corporate donor class, whose expectations are always for a monetary return wildly out of proportion to their initial investment and who give not a single, solitary shit about how many people have to die in order to maximise their profit.

    Anyway, what was my point?  Oh yeah, the latest example of Conservatives putting ideological purity over political common sense is in the furore over free school meals for kids. To cut a long story short, earlier in the year they were shamed into voting for a program guaranteeing that kids who qualified for free school meals wouldn’t lose out while schools were closed in Lockdown. The social-media effort that managed this U-Turn was spearheaded by a young Manchester United forward called Marcus Rashford who put his face and profile behind an already existing online campaign to provide families who qualified with vouchers they could use to buy food in shops, thereby causing cognitive metastorms in the brains of all right thinking people who can’t quite process the marrying of ego-free good works with the Manchester United brand. It’s like finding out that a Mitch McConnell staffer does pro-bono legal work for BLM, or that Coldplay are funding the buying up and safe disposal of their entire back catalogue. It doesn’t feel right, but it actually happened and it prevented a lot of misery, so good on him for putting himself in the firing line of right-wing hate.

    So, fast forward through a few months and, of course, with half term falling this week and the voucher program lapsing the entire Conservative Party (apart from one single, solitary MP) voted against extending it to cover the millions of kids who would otherwise go hungry while off school. I mean, there’s stumbling into an unseen PR pothole and then there’s spending money stolen from a collection for endangered baby hedgehogs in order to hire an excavator from JCB and using that excavator to dig an enormous hole in the middle of Wembley Stadium the morning before it’s supposed to be hosting a charity concert for victims of domestic violence then filling the hole with desperately needed baby incubators and setting the whole thing on fire under a diamond encrusted banner reading “WE’RE BILLING YOU FOR ALL THIS!” before donating the excavator to the IDF on the proviso that it be used exclusively to bulldoze Palestinian olive-groves on the West Bank. Tories do the former all the time and get away with it thanks to media cover, but this time they did the latter, in spades, and tried to defend it!

    It’s hard to quantify the damage Johnson’s Tories have done to themselves with this act of soulless cruelty. With Covid cases spiking thanks to their insistence of rushing the end of the first Lockdown, the current Tier system of localised Lockdowns pretty clearly being manipulated to target cash-strapped Labour-run areas, their privatised Test and Trace system crashing and burning at the cost of billions, hundreds of millions more in public money being shovelled in to the bank accounts of chums and family members of Tory MPs for PPE contracts they don’t even have to bid for, etcetera and etcetera, balking sat a £20 million bill for feeding hungry children on the grounds that it would just “encourage dependency” seems to be hammering home the message to even the dimmest Tory voter that these bastards not only don’t care about doing the right thing, they genuinely lack the basic components of character and empathy that would allow them to understand what the right thing is and why they should do something about it.

    Right now the Earth-3 boffins who comprise the Tory Party brain-trust are desperately trying to cobble together a policy that will allow them to pretend they’re doing something about the issue of child food poverty (which their austerity policies have caused to massively increase over the last decade) without, a) admitting that they’ve u-turned yet again or, more importantly, b) without – actually – doing anything about it that would actually redirect funds earmarked for Tory donors towards actual hungry kids. Last I heard the scheme was to delay, delay, delay until half term is over, blame the delay on everyone else being super-mean to the delicate sensibilities of Conservative MPs (they don’t like being called ‘scum’ apparently, especially not by Labour MPs who grew up on council estates and didn’t go to the right school), refuse to acknowledge that the Labour motion to extended the voucher scheme would have carried it up to and past the Christmas holidays, lie that they’ve already given funds to local authorities to pay for it (those funds had to be spent by October 2nd) while crafting a promise of funding for “School Holiday Groups” that will, purely coincidentally I’m sure, miss out the poorest kids whose parents can’t or won’t get them to out-of-school groups while almost certainly ending up funding Jemima and Tarquin’s Pony-Riding Club in hardcore Conservative constituencies.

    It’s who they are. And they’re just getting worse.

    Happy Voting Out The Scum Day (minus 6).

  93. 93.

    Kay

    @TS (the original):

    My only complaint (and it doesn’t matter, really) is they are once again giving Trump an unearned advantage in coverage. They make a lot of assumptions to get Trump to 270, and they make very few assumptions for Biden’s losing scenario. To get Trump even to the upper midwest states/western states he has to be given all the southern states. Trumps own released models – all three- rely on his base including all the southern toss ups. He then adds from there.

    I think it’s a broad error – an error that applies to their whole analysis- so they don’t pick it up with the jigsaw puzzle approach they use.

  96. 96.

    Kay

    @TS (the original):

    From a small d democratic perspective I approve of them leaving doubt. If they were more certain it really would depress Trump turnout and they shouldn’t inject themselves into it to that extent.

  97. 97.

    Baud

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I think it’s her Converse shoes that makes her shady.

    .

    The point of the smear is so that, if Biden dies in office, they’ll have normalized the conspiracy theory so that Norah O’Donnell feels comfortable asking Kamala about it in a 60 Minutes interview.

  99. 99.

    germy

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    Your advice to writers is always good.

    When I look back at all the crappy “advice for writers” books I read 30 and 40 years ago, I shudder.  I don’t know if this is still true (because I don’t read them anymore) but back then there was a whole industry devoted to “You Too Can Be A Published Writer!” books, written by people who had written nothing but advice to writers books.

    The most recent one I read before I gave up was “Some Writers Deserve To Starve!”  The author of that masterpiece mentions (in passing) that a potential publisher suggested some edits for a novel she’d written.  The author says rather than making the edits, she went with a vanity publisher, because she was tired of her book.

  101. 101.

    Zzyzx

    6 days out from the election polling average in 2016 via 538:

     

    Clinton 45.1 – Trump 42

     

    2020:

     

    Biden 51.9 – Trump 42.9

     

    It is a much different situation, much harder for Trump to get the right votes in the right states, but yeah I’m going to stress.

  104. 104.

    Kay

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    Both of the big poll analysts- Silver and Cohn, believe covid upticks hurt Trump and Wisconsin is having a hell of an uptick. Ohio is too so I’m wondering if it hurt Trump’s chances here. I don’t think they’ll poll it though because Trump is still favored to win Ohio.

  107. 107.

    Baud

    @Zzyzx:

    The media has been doing a compare and contrast with 2016.  I knew Comey fucked us, but I forgot how much damage it did.

  109. 109.

    Matt McIrvin

    It seems like the pattern is pretty simple: Biden’s lead in a given state widens with COVID-19 infection levels. He seemed to be crushing Trump in Arizona and Florida during the summer when they were having some of the worst COVID outbreaks (in the Sunbelt, it’s heat that drives people indoors, not cold). Now things aren’t as bad there (getting worse again, yes, but nothing like the summer), so the polls in AZ and FL tightened up. But Biden is doing better in the upper Midwest, which escaped the worst of it in the summer but is a hotspot now.

  112. 112.

    Ksmiami

    @satby: I was at that moment yesterday and had an urge to watch stand up comedy on YouTube- for some reason it re-energized me and I’m recommending it to everyone who is stressed out about the election

  113. 113.

    germy

    @Gin & Tonic:

    A brilliant riposte

    I liked the reply where someone zoomed in on one of the Kardashian private island party photos, and we see a waiter holding a tray in the background, out of focus.  “Mask up, poors!” is the caption.  Kim doesn’t mention all the people who have to work on that “private island” to provide her pals food and drink, and clean up their messes.

    I also liked the person who questioned “private island” and “normal” in the same sentence.

  115. 115.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @germy:

    Local sources in Nebraska are reporting that Trump’s rally in Omaha left hundreds of people stranded when buses failed to return people to their cars and at least dozens are suffering hypothermia and need medical aid.

    Hopefully, several of them die having not voted, because they were convinced by Twitler to vote on Election Day only.

  117. 117.

    Kay

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I just cannot overplay the sense of dread here. It’s the worst I’ve seen it since this began. All of the yelling and screaming about “lockdowns” and “closed schools” has stopped and now it’s just this stoic, grim acceptance.

    They’re reclosing schools. That was like hitting bottom with a thud. I’m exhausted myself. I have to do another plan to put the women who work here on some kind of flexible schedule so they can care for their kids. They asked me yesterday when we can meet and come up with it.

  119. 119.

    Jeffro

    @danielx:I’ve had to dial back on consumption…though I may invest in a bottle of good bubbly for election night.

    I bought a bottle of barely-good bubbly when trumpov went into the hospital.  I know that’s a pretty low sort of thing to do but whatever. Unfortunately, it’s still sitting there.  Fortunately, it should be pretty damn well chilled come next Tuesday.

  120. 120.

    hueyplong

    @Gin & Tonic: FWIW, I also thought it a stupid move when made.  He had all offseason to rest and he didn’t exactly look weak in the prior inning.

    It’s just that one way or the other TB was going to have to score more than 1 run to win.

  124. 124.

    Jeffro

    @Zzyzx: so…5% ‘other’ or still (gag) ‘undecided’?

    trumpov’s the incumbent.  It’s not like all 5% are going to break for him, and Biden is over 50% already.

    Something like a 54%-45% final result in the popular vote will be huge.  Ya gotta give him credit, Donnie got us out of our 50-50 deadlock, America.

  125. 125.

    Ken

    @Tony Jay: …who give not a single, solitary shit about how many people have to die in order to maximise their profit.

    Anyway, what was my point?

    I thought that was your point.

  126. 126.

    Mousebumples

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    @sanjeevs: That 17 points can’t be right. I want to believe it but that has to be wrong

    Marquette has a wisconsin poll coming out later this afternoon. I expect 17 is an outlier but I’m hoping for Biden +10.

    The COVID spike isn’t helping Trump here. It’s making the virus more real (versus an Other People problem) and might also be taking out supporters by landing them in the hospital on ventilators or whatever.

    6 days to go. Let’s do this.

  127. 127.

    germy

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:  Some of them are even good!

    I remember the “word counter” guys, the ones who would say “If you get up an hour early every morning and write one thousand words, in three months you will have written ninety thousand words, enough for a novel!”

    As if it were simply a matter of piling word upon word, with no deletions, dead ends or rewrites.

    The only book I enjoyed back then was “Writing Down The Bones: Freeing The Writer Within.”

  129. 129.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kay: Massachusetts is just a short distance behind you, I think. Charlie Baker has been maddeningly sluggish about rolling back his precious reopening. My own city is coming down off a huge local outbreak that they got a lid on through massive public screening, but as the mayor just said, it’s hard to walk down an escalator that is going up.

    My daughter’s school is still doing in-person classes outdoors (in a town that’s in much better shape than mine), but they’re making plans to shut that down again.

  131. 131.

    Kathleen

    @debbie: I missed that because I’m at the point where I can’t bear to watch him, his enabling Nazi ghouls (Rethug Congress and Senate) and grinning bubbly morning news bots talking about all of this like it’s normal. But I’m not surprised.

  132. 132.

    Zzyzx

    @Baud: I remember that moment so well. I was driving into Vegas (from Seattle) and was just going over the last pass when my brother sent me a panicked text. I had to call to find out what had happened. Good thing the Phish Halloween run was so good because that was the last stress free fun for a long time.

  133. 133.

    Ken

    @Kay: In this case the busing-in seems innocent enough, it was to move people from the airport parking lots to the rally (but not back). It’s possible some of those people were paid to be there, or were from out-of-state; both have been reported at Trump’s events.

  134. 134.

    TS (the original)

    @germy:

    The incitement to violence is never ending. I hate to hear what he has to say when he loses on election night.

  135. 135.

    StringOnAStick

    I read here first thing, at lunchtime and before bed, but now the moving rubber is definitely hitting the road. The moving van atrium an hour, and at dawn tomorrow the kitties get their first full dose of tranquilizer (half dose the night before) and we start our two day drive to our new home, trading one blue state for another but having to pass through several deep red states on the way.

    All food for this trip has been prepared so no restaurants will be visited at any time; one hotel stay. The surreal nature of moving combined with just the general surreal nature of this critical election is intense but I’m glad I have so much to keep my brain and body busy.

  136. 136.

    Baud

    @Zzyzx:

    That’s when I truly realized I was different for the normies.  I thought people would be mad at Comey like I was, but instead our marginal voter was influenced by him.

  137. 137.

    Helen

    @Kay: The rally was in one area of the airport and the assigned parking was a couple miles away. There were shuttle buses to get to the rally but weren’t available after. A lot of confusion!

  138. 138.

    germy

    @Kathleen:  grinning bubbly morning news bots talking

    The only time they stop grinning is when they have to report on something Biden said, or his good chances of winning this.

  139. 139.

    Baud

    @StringOnAStick:

    and we start our two day drive to our new home, trading one blue state for another but having to pass through several deep red states on the way.

    Road Warrior.

  141. 141.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: That sounds about right. Those people had served their purpose, so they ceased to exist in the sociopath’s sociopathic campaign’s consciousness.

  144. 144.

    TS (the original)

    @Kay:

     If they were more certain it really would depress Trump turnout and they shouldn’t inject themselves into it to that extent.

    But they do – always. They surely depressed dem voters in 2016 or did I misunderstand what happened.

  145. 145.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Baud: I keep looking at electoral-vote.com’s comparative EV charts:

    https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html

    Yes, Clinton seemed to be well ahead in the electoral count to the end, but you could see her overall lead starting to slide even a week before the Comey letter broke. It was the general pattern where she’d get a huge lead off awful Trump news and then it would just erode.

    But then after Comey shat all over the news cycle… if you look at the chart of states where she was ahead outside of polling MoE, there’s this kind of spinout that just accelerates, starting about now in days-from-the-election terms. And you can see that part of the polling miss was probably just that things were changing very fast and the aggregated state polls have an inherent time lag in their response. Hillary was on an express train to hell in the last week.

    (It was the opposite of the pattern in 2012, where Obama managed to vigorously raise a thin lead in the last week, and outperformed his final polls for the most part, though the state count was spot-on.)

  148. 148.

    TS (the original)

    @Zzyzx:

    I do not understand why the overall % for Biden is going down at 538 while the state level polls are going up. Biden has gone from +10.6 down to +8.6 over the past week.

    There are a few pollsters giving Biden very low leads. I will be interested in the post election analysis of these.

  150. 150.

    Jeffro

    I would encourage you all, just this once, to read George Will today.

    The Coming Decade of Democratic Dominance  (you can see why it caught my eye! ;)

    Lots of actual facts and stuff, all of it promising for us Dems and the newer generations that are (thank FSM) taking over the reins in this country.

    Demographic arithmetic is also discouraging for Trump. There are more than 5 million fewer members of his core constituency — Whites without college degrees — than there were four years ago. And there are more than 13 million more minority and college-educated White eligible voters than in 2016.

    In Ronald Reagan’s 1984 reelection, voters under 30 were a solidly Republican age cohort; 2020, for the fifth consecutive election, it will be the most Democratic.

  152. 152.

    different-church-lady

    @germy: “She’s about five billion more times ready to go than you are, you fucking asshole failure.” (<- I mean Trump, obviously…)

  154. 154.

    Ken

    @Tony Jay: You’re right, that was my point. This is why I need an editor.

    No, poets don’t need editors, as shown by the infamous case of the editor who changed Frost’s “The woods are lovely, dark and deep” to “The woods are lovely, dark, and deep”.

    Please continue as you have been. I am looking forward to your January 1 post on post-Brexit Britain, though I recognize it may be delayed due to troubles such as the collapse of the British internet, government censors, and/or cannibal gangs.

  155. 155.

    Aleta

    @satby: The last 4 years + the election would be plenty, but add in the lowering light level and the covid restrictions on our normal life + the recent covid news  +  the $ stress ….   Risk for depression is so high for most of us.  (Even my close friend who’s never low in spirit or energy for more than an hour, never short-tempered  is so anxious and depressed, a short fuse, and can hardly bear the slightest problem.)   I’m thinking that starting early on counteractions (to any signs of depr and anxiety, that normally might resolve on their own) could  be important.  So it doesn’t snowball.   Also important not to blame (oneself or the people around),  so that any available energy can be used for those ‘counteractions’ (I won’t list them) to prevent chance of worsening.

    Written in a hurry–

  156. 156.

    different-church-lady

    @Jeffro: I would appreciate it if people would stop talking about what they’re going to do at Disney World before the final out is recorded.

  158. 158.

    Kay

    The Canadian pollsters are funnier:

    The polls show a constant pattern – of seniors and white voters moving left, and of a GOP where the answers don’t exist on how to get from where they are to where they need to be. Biden is going to win, barring the biggest error in public polling of this century, and pretending that isn’t true is malpractice at this point. Joe Biden has just gotten two very good polls for him, and has killed any reasonable notion that there is hidden weakness for him in the midwest. They just hate the President, and whatever you think of that decision, it is the will of the people.

  159. 159.

    J R in WV

    @satby:

    Just something I have to wait out for the next almost three months.

    I’m sorry you’re feeling stressed out. Me Too! I hoped that voting Monday would help me relax, but not. We’ve donated quite a bit to various campaigns, and I tried to swear off before I drive us broke. But it’s the only thing that cheers me up a bit.

    Yesterday a young woman from DFW area in TX called to thank us for a contribution via DougJ’s Texas thermometer, and we chatted a bit — I told her we were pretty tapped out, and she was OK with that, then we also talked about being stressed out by the whole crummy situation.

    So after talking for a few minutes, I thanked her for running and trying to make a difference, and let her go back to work fund raising, and then looked her up and made a contribution anyway.

    That helped, to have pitched in to help Ms Valenzuela.

    I hope your work isn’t too terrible. I recall that the individual you had problems with has left that office, correct? That should help some, you outlasted her.

    Please do hang in there, and use B-J to vent if you need to, someone is bound to support you if you do.

  160. 160.

    taumaturgo

    Omaha World-Herald comments section.
    (24) comments

    Back to story


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 7:09am

     

    Metaphor.

     


    Bob Doe Oct 28, 2020 8:01am

     

    ^^^Lunatic^^^

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:19am

     

    ^^^Fake Account^^^

     


    VOTE TRUMP to Save the American Economy Oct 28, 2020 7:22am

     

    Far fewer required medical attention as compared to a typical BLM/antifa riot.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 7:52am

     

    “Yeah, sure, we froze a few old people, but so what! Change the subject!”

     


    Bob Doe Oct 28, 2020 8:06am

     

    The man was stating a fact that you and your kind choose to ignore incessantly.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:19am

     

    Face account say what?

     


    VOTE TRUMP to Save the American Economy Oct 28, 2020 7:27am

     

    The buzz at the rally was how almost all new voters this year are supporting Trump, as a direct result of the BLM / antifa riots this past summer. This nationwide truth is widely underrepresented in the polls.

     


    LARRY AINSWORTH Oct 28, 2020 7:35am

     

    Crowds mean delays. They do at sporting events, church, Walmart, etc…. I recall air traffic at LAX being shut down for over an hour just so Bill Clinton could get a haircut on the tarmac. Stuff happens. It’s frankly amazing that so many people would show up in the first place in that weather for a political rally. Last week in Pennsylvania, 47 people showed up (in cars) to hear Obama dutifully plug for a candidate who never seems to come outside much. That kind of enthusiasm gap makes this undecided, registered NP wonder what the deal is.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 7:51am

     

    Excuses. They take no responsibility.

     


    Bob Doe Oct 28, 2020 8:09am

     

    Would you blame Biden if this happened at one of his rallies??? Oh yeah, 30k people wouldn’t fit in his basement…and only about a dozen showed up to see that woman’s (or whatever KH is) husband speak so there was no traffic jams. Blaming Trump for a traffic jam is idiocracy at its finest. Come on.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:20am

     

    Fake account creates hypothetical scenario to distract from Trump’s shocking irresponsibility.

     


    Joe Budden Oct 28, 2020 8:16am

     

    Since when did we eliminate personal responsibility? People who went, went there freely and knowingly that there would be delays. They knew it would be cold, yet they went anyway.

    Why? Because they accepted the personal responsibility for their actions.

    It’s not Trumps responsibility, nor is it the Nebraska GOP responsibility.

    This is one of the biggest differences between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans want people to be responsible for themselves, Democrats want the government to be responsible for the people.

    With all of the politicians in office I would much rather take care of myself than let the government “take care of me”

     


    VOTE TRUMP to Save the American Economy Oct 28, 2020 8:19am

     

    Trump will come close to Reagan’s electoral numbers in 1988, but will probably fall slightly short. Pollsters and media are working overtime to suppress Trump voters and it does not appear to be any more effective this year than it was in 2016.

     


    Dennis Kelly Oct 28, 2020 7:58am

     

    I had tickets and my granddaughter REALLY wanted to see the President IN PERSON, but I had to make a decision to NOT go, as I am 74 and just can’t stand for a six hour period, which I expected and I am no fan of cold weather, even when properly dressed for it. But, we watched it on TV and enjoyed it – I think they expected 10K and got about 30K. The atmosphere and attitude was like people were attending a big upset at Husker Stadium. This was shown split screen at times with rioting and looting in Philadelphia – the nation’s choices could not be more clear. Very little coverage of the Biden crime family so far, but it unfolds now, and no matter how much coverage the media gives it, people know what is going on.

     


    Bob Doe Oct 28, 2020 8:11am

     

    One side violently destroys, loots, and riots. One side does not. The choice is simple and easy. For anyone with a brain, that is.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:22am

     

    The Minneapolis 3rd precinct was apparently destroyed by right-wingers trying to start a civil war. And there are indictments to back this up.

    Two LEOs in California were killed during the riots by right-wingers trying to start a civil war.

    Meanwhie one left winger — one — in the last 20 years may have killed someone, but we’ll never know, because he was killed extrajudicially.

     


    VOTE TRUMP to Save the American Economy Oct 28, 2020 8:11am

     

    Very nice post – well presented and factual. You could teach Grrd and Belcher a thing or two.

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:23am

     

    Fake accounts loving other fake accounts. Mmmmm! Smooch!

     


    Gerard Harbison Oct 28, 2020 8:24am

     

    There were 5000-6000 there.

     


    donnie kovid Oct 28, 2020 8:06am

     

    LOLLLLLLLLL @ the clowns making excuses for this loser. everybody that supported this maniac will be remembered by history as racist trash. maybe if you shout ANTIFA ! like a terrified coward it will bring back the quarter million americans dead from the presidents incompetence.

     


    Rebecca Buchanan Oct 28, 2020 8:07am

     

    The Husker game comparison in the article is ridiculous. Organizers of Husker games provide a way for people to exit in an orderly fashion. No one is trapped at Memorial Stadium if they need to leave.

     


    Frank Vadecamp Oct 28, 2020 8:09am

     

    You all are a bunch of idiots

     


    Tim Ae Oct 28, 2020 8:26am

     

    Traffic completely backed on on the streets = busses also couldn’t move quickly.

    Completely Trump’s fault.

    Biden’s handlers truthfully claim they will never have this problem.

  161. 161.

    Betty Cracker

    @taumaturgo: Your comment went into moderation because you had a kajillion links.

    ETA: A suggestion — maybe next time just LINK to a comments section rather than reproducing it at length here? Would save people a lot of scrolling…

  165. 165.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kay: I’m feeling pretty confident about the election, but the U.S. media’s need to make it a dramatic photo-finish means I have to talk my husband off the ledge every other day. He comes home from work with his head filled with doomsday scenarios. He also works with Trump assholes, so that doesn’t help. :)

  167. 167.

    Baud

    @Matt McIrvin:

    My vague recollection is that Hillary always got a bounce when people could see her directly, either at the convention or during the debates, but when she wasn’t in the spotlight, the noise took over and her numbers fell.  The final debate was Oct. 19, 2016, so what you say about the numbers would fit my recollection.

  169. 169.

    Barbara

    @Zzyzx: It is not only that there was a smaller difference between Clinton and Trump, but the sum of the numbers (87%) meant that nearly 13% were either undecided or unwilling to state their preference.

    Now, we have a difference of 9% (give or take), with the sum being 95 — with only 5% undecided or unwilling to state a preference.

    So: 3%/13% — nearly 4 times as many people who were undecided as the margin between Clinton and Trump, versus 9%/5% — slightly more than half as many people undecided versus the margin between Biden and Trump.

    Individual states are closer, and Trump is an agent of chaos, so never rest or relax.

  170. 170.

    Tony Jay

    @Ken:

    I’ve got my vellum and I’ve got my bottle, all I need is a cork and some ink and the message will get out.

  173. 173.

    Kay

    @taumaturgo:

    Trump will come close to Reagan’s electoral numbers in 1988, but will probably fall slightly short.

    1988 was George Bush I, but putting that aside this is so consistent with Trumpsters that it’s interesting. None of them predict an eked out electoral college win (Trump’s campaign predicts that) – they all predict a blow out.
    I think once you divorce yourself from polling you’re really free to just go crazy. It will be whatever you want it to be. It’s consistent with how they’ve treated Trump from the get-go.

  174. 174.

    SFAW

    @taumaturgo:

    I liked the moron talking about how Trump’s vote numbers will be like Reagan’s 1988 vote numbers, I assume he meant overwhelming. I think he could be the next SCOTUS nominee.

    ETA: And I see Kay got there first. I assume it’s because she’s young.

  175. 175.

    Barbara

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: There is something so perfect about this story.  I am becoming someone I barely recognize, laughing at the distress of people who don’t recognize how similar they are to Trump, in that they are both totally indifferent to anyone else around them.  He doesn’t give a flying fuck that they might get hypothermia, and if they love him anyway, why should I care what happens to them?

  176. 176.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @Geminid:

    When the Civil War began, there was a Quaker community in Loudon County, northern Virginia. Some of them formed a cavalry unit to fight Confederate raiders.

    Nathanael Greene, a Rhode Island Quaker, was our second best general in the War of Independence. IIRC his family didn’t approve of him enlisting, though.

  177. 177.

    J R in WV

    @Immanentize:

    @danielx: I’ve done that — a bottle of Billecart Salmon Brut Rose.  But I think I’ll save it for the following weekend….  To be sure.

    We’ve done it too, a bottle of Agrapart & Fils Grand Cru. Cold and settled in in the back of the fridge, just waiting. I just hope I can leave it until next Tuesday evening. And that things are certain and positive early Tuesday [email protected]!!

  179. 179.

    Ohio Mom

    String on a Stick:

    Sigh. In the before times we’d ask where you were moving so your new neighbors could plan a meet-up complete with green balloons. I’m still greiving the cancelled all-Ohio one we had planned for Columbus this past summer.

    On another note, when I read that Duestche Bank and other lenders have forgiven Trump’s loans of $800+ million, I am reminded of where all that money came from: all of us little people.

    That is where our mortgage and other loan interest payments, banking fees, overdrawn account penalties, etc., went to. We paid what is essentially a tax to Trump himself.

    It wouldn’t be so galling if that big chunk of change went to underwrite the businesses that provide our communities with needed services and goods, or mortgages to house us. That’s what they teach you in middle school social studies, anyway. Instead we waz robbed.

  180. 180.

    SFAW

    @germy:

    When the Murderer-in-Chief was questioned about this, he said it makes him “a smart guy, not a bad guy.” I can no longer tell if he really believes that, or is just spewing his usual bullshit. Not that it matters, nor that there’s any difference.

  181. 181.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @SFAW:

    Wearing Chucks makes her all-American.

    Hear, hear! My wife is older than Kamala and she owns a dozen pairs of Chucks.

  184. 184.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    I have bad moments. I’m irrational and gloomy when I’m tired, which I know about myself so can correct.

    I’m tired a lot these days. I break work up into really small parts to get it done. It’s all just so grim and I’m close to tears when I think about going another year without seeing my oldest son. We have, I think, an unusual level of understanding of each other. Knowing. I always thought it went me to him but what I have realized is it goes both ways. “To be understood…” :)

  187. 187.

    Immanentize

    @TS (the original): I read it on one of Nate’s posts in which he admitted it might not be tightening as much as modeled.  The Canadians Kay mentions mock him mercilessly for his model.  They are predicting based on district level polling and demographic shifts (e.g. Biden is outperforming Stacy Abrams by 10% among white voters therefore, GA is in play)

  188. 188.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @J R in WV: We’re still in pain from 2016 and are afraid to buy anything celebratory. I have a bottle of red in the fridge but my wife is a non-drinker so we may have to improvise a celebration, if there’s celebrating to be done.

    Also I’m not sure when to feel relief. I know no matter what happens the Trumpies will take it to the courts. If we’re ahead in the in-person voting on Election Day, great! And I am slowly starting to expect that to happen, blowing up the Trump plan to stop the game in the first quarter as soon as their side scores. (Sorry, I don’t usually do sports analogies).

    But even if so, that’s just one step in a long slog till January 20.

    @…now I try to be amused: There was a schism in the Quakers even over anybody providing monetary support to the Revolution, let alone fighting in it.

  193. 193.

    laura

    @Tony Jay:  Shipley MP Davies had his whole ass handed to him by the granddaughter of friends in Bradford over the last week. His replies to Ms. Innes did not go well. If we feed poor children, then they’ll expect to not starve….

  196. 196.

    SFAW

    @Immanentize:

    Mateus works. I may still have some Annie Green Springs that I laid down awhile back.

    But talking about these pretenders to the Wine Throne is silly, when EVERYONE knows you gotta go with Mad Dog.

  197. 197.

    Splitting Image

    @Betty Cracker: 

    I’m feeling pretty confident about the election, but the U.S. media’s need to make it a dramatic photo-finish means I have to talk my husband off the ledge every other day.

    This is likely to be the biggest blow-out since 1988, during which the news media also spent the last few days talking about the polls tightening and Michael Dukakis gaining ground. We all know how that turned out.

    It’s true that it’s not impossible Trump could pull off a shocker, but remember that the people most responsible for 2016 (i.e. Comey) were generally not Trump’s own people.

    Since then, Trump has replaced the people who helped him win with his own lackeys, who I expect will pull off their electoral shenanigans about as well as they’ve pulled off everything else so far.

  198. 198.

    Immanentize

    @SFAW: it is!  Thanks for asking.  His classes are … demanding.  But he is working his skinny butt off and doing very well.  Rice tests everyone every week. Their community infection rate has been .1%, mostly off campus students.  So he is staying Covid free, although I fear the bad food is making him lose weight.  Which frankly he cannot stand to lose.  I just sent him some triple cream cheeses and summer sausage….

  199. 199.

    Matt McIrvin

    @TS (the original): It’s those new national polls jumping in that weren’t reporting earlier in the cycle and have much lower leads for Biden. Particularly IBD/TIPP, which 538 rates relatively highly, so it gets a significant weight in the average.

    Throwing them in isn’t necessarily a bad thing for accuracy of the overall result. I suspect their national average was previously excessively influenced by the USC Dornsife survey, which isn’t even a regular poll (they’re talking to the same people over and over) and has been way better for Biden than most other polls

    What I don’t think this is is a real national tightening.

  201. 201.

    SFAW

    @Splitting Image:

    Since then, Trump has replaced the people who helped him win with his own lackeys, who I expect will pull off their electoral shenanigans about as well as they’ve pulled off everything else so far.

    I’m still of the opinion (not based on any knowledge or published facts, of course) that Shill Barr has been feverishly working on plans to fuck with the vote count in key states. I expect he’ll want the Department of Injustice minions to mobilize in PA, WI, MI, AZ, NC, etc., to do their best to suppress Dem votes.

    Yes, I realize I’m sounding a bit paranoid, and in a rational world, with a non-evil administration, I’d be turning this into a joke. But Barr is as evil as Trump, but smarter and more competent, so I can see it being attempted.

    No, you don’t need to talk me down off the ledge. I’m still cautiously optimistic, but Barr scares me a bit (in this context).

  202. 202.

    Geminid

    @…now I try to be amused:  my Virginia county is named after Nathaniel Greene, “the Quaker blacksmith.” But I looked him up, and he wasn’t exactly a blacksmith- his family had an iron working business, and he may have lent a hand in production. Greene drifted away from his Quaker faith before the war, and was suspended from his Meeting in 1773.    But he sure came through when Washington sent him south to pick up the pieces after Gates’ disastrous battle of Camden. Greene’s bloody standoff with Cornwallis at Guilford Court  House induced Cornwallis to retreat to Yorktown. Greene died in 1786, age 44.

  203. 203.

    TS (the original)

    @Immanentize:

    The  discussion on the  Wisconsin poll notes

    The findings suggest concerns about the coronavirus are weighing heavily on Trump’s candidacy, particularly in Wisconsin, which has seen case counts climb to record levels in recent weeks.

    And there is a new heading up at wapo

    Dow falls nearly 600 points as rising coronavirus counts threaten fragile recovery

    It is no wonder trump wants people to stop talking about the virus, and the Canadians would well understand what is happening pandemic wise.

    Does every GOP administration end with economic collapse because of factors that should have been foreseen and could have been fixed?

  204. 204.

    SFAW

    @Immanentize:

    Glad he’s OK, pleasantly surprised to hear they test so frequently.

    Losing weight? At college? That’s so weird to read. Anyway, I hope your CARE package helps him maintain, etc.

  205. 205.

    Matt McIrvin

    @zhena gogolia: No. He’s changed his whole approach to reporting his results–his model calculates a win probability, which you can find if you look for it, but he doesn’t top-line it on his website and refuses to tout it when interviewed.

    His argument is that he wants his models to be a tool for driving activism rather than political entertainment–saying a candidate has X% probability of winning accomplishes nothing.

    I think it’s a wise decision for a different reason: everything about his modeling approach is well-motivated except his assumption of the probability of large correlated polling misses, and unfortunately that’s the key thing you need to actually estimate a “probability of winning”. In 2016 he screwed himself by assuming a vastly narrower distribution for correlated polling error than was wise.

  206. 206.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @taumaturgo:

    Harbison is awesome. He’s a chemistry prof who was a FReeper in the early 2000s, and gradually transitioned over a combination of evolution and conservative incompetence in governance. By 2008, he tepidly supported Obama and started moving hard ever since. Got an interesting bio, too. He’s Irish, used to idolize Peter King, and had more than a passing personal familiarity with some Sinn Fein and IRA figures.  He’s an absolute delight to talk with, particularly on subjects regarding Irish history and science.

  207. 207.

    Ken

    @Kay: I think once you divorce yourself from polling you’re really free to just go crazy.

    See for example the Trumpist electoral maps that have Trump with over 400 EV, with California and New York red.

  208. 208.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Immanentize:

    My so-called “friends” gave me a case of Night Train for my 21st birthday. I supposed that they scrounged up all the change from their ashtrays and floormats and under the car seats for their generous gift.

    More than a few puked that night.

  209. 209.

    TomatoQueen

    @Tony Jay:  It says here young Mr Rashford rec’d a gong for hitching his face to this already-established cause. So do we have to bow and scrape and call him Sir?  I am a TOON supporter (complete loonbucket, yeah yeah).

  212. 212.

    Tony Jay

    @laura:

    And the mind-boggling thing is not only that they really mean it when they say things like that, but that they think that, deep down, everybody else thinks the same thing.

    The Nasty Party indeed.

  214. 214.

    Barbara

    @H.E.Wolf: I have a hard time believing we are going to end up with two Democratic senators from Georgia, and the Montana race is just so close — I think what will happen is that the Senate contests will go the way of the presidential, so we might end up with one and implausibly two Democrats from Georgia, but I don’t think Bullock is outrunning Trump enough in Montana.  I have given money to all, but in my pragmatic moments, that’s how I see it.

    I have been waiting a long time for NC or GA to become the “next” Virginia.  Fingers crossed.

  219. 219.

    Tony Jay

    @TomatoQueen:

    I think they pinned an MBE onto his chest to shut him up, but he just dummied past them and kept on ‘virtue-signalling’ about the urchin spawn of brothel-dollies and whatnot.

    He’s just about the only Man United player in the country who won’t face booing when crowds return to the stadiums. Granted he’ll probably be in his mid 40s and retired by then (and the one-eyed warlord of a post-Brexit fortified village in the Pennines) but the point still stands.

  220. 220.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @Tony Jay:  I love reading your comments/rants about what is happening over there except for the fact that some of your representatives are as bad as some of ours…

  222. 222.

    laura

    @Tony Jay: I would refer you to the inimitable Driftglass and his “Tribe who rubs shit in their hair” as the apt comparison. They Have to believe everyone else agrees with their shite policies because they are cruelly stupid and stupidly cruel. And the pissy high dudgeon when called out for their moral bankruptcy is well, you know…

  223. 223.

    Ken

    @TS (the original): Does every GOP administration end with economic collapse because of factors that should have been foreseen and could have been fixed?

    I was thinking Eisenhower did OK, but there was a recession in 1960-1961.  Reagan managed to miss one at the end of his second term, but it hit during Bush’s.

  225. 225.

    germy

    I remember the Country Club Malt Liquor commercials on TV in the ’60s and ’70s.

    Very high class alternative to regular beer.

  226. 226.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @TS (the original):

    Does every GOP administration end with economic collapse because of factors that should have been foreseen and could have been fixed?

    Republicans are ideologically incapable of recognizing what is necessary to prevent economic collapse, much less doing it. They just let boom-and-bust happen.

  227. 227.

    Amir Khalid

    @TomatoQueen:

    An MBE is not as major as a knighthood. (The Beatles got one each basically just for being The Beatles. John famously gave his back a few years later.) You don’t have to call him Sir Marcus.

  229. 229.

    TS (the original)

    @Ken:

    There was a market crash in October 1987 – took 2 years for a full recovery. So a year before the end of Reagan’s term. That was when I was paying 17.9% interest on a home loan – not for the faint hearted.

  230. 230.

    germy

    @Amir Khalid:

    George Harrison said “After all we did for Great Britain, selling all that corduroy and making it swing, they gave us that bloody old leather medal with wooden string through it.”

  231. 231.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Ken: The dynamic in 1960 was really interesting: Eisenhower was super-popular all the way to the end, but I guess that along with general conditions slipping, it came down to the personal appeal of Nixon vs. Kennedy and it was a squeaker in the end. It’s almost a reverse version of the way Republicans have won the White House more recently.

  234. 234.

    germy

    @NotMax:

    That man was clearly an alcoholic.  Indifferent to everything except his high-octane beer.  The only time he’d cheer up was when it was poured for him.

  235. 235.

    Tony Jay

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone:

    Conservatism – “The global franchise you can rely on, with the same low quality guarantee from Anchorage to Auckland and from California to Kamchatka. We’ll wave whatever flag we need to as we Take Your Country Back…. to the Gilded Age. If you’ve hate in your heart we can teach you our art, everybody welcome (self respecting minorities need not apply)”

  236. 236.

    Matt McIrvin

    @…now I try to be amused: Conservative economic doctrine is that boom-and-bust is the natural, morally correct business cycle. The human cost of it is necessary “creative destruction”. You can’t and shouldn’t try to prevent it, any more than you should change your life to control a COVID-19 pandemic.

    In general, they’re really keen on sacrificing other people to the working of huge macro-forces on the basis of ideological principles. I think they regard the willingness to accept that toll as a sign of seriousness and power.

  237. 237.

    ...now I try to be amused

    @germy:

    But they always arrange things so they profit during both.

    True. If it was otherwise they’d do something about it. Funny how those who praise “creative destruction” are never the ones getting destroyed.

  238. 238.

    Tony Jay

    @laura:

    The “Tribe who rubs shit in their hair” indeed. They’re doing exactly that right now. Whining that people are being soooooo mean to them and playing politics with children’s futures just because they want to teach the little vermin some moral fibre…. by denying them fibre in their diet.

    And to think, the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party had to apologise for calling one of them “Scum”. She was far too polite.

  240. 240.

    SFAW

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    You are a very stupid person.

    I try not to argue with truth/reality. But in this case, it has nothing to do with my choice of “wine.”

    Thunderbird. My fucking word.

    “What’s a cost? ‘Bout a buck. What’s it do? Fuck you up.”

  241. 241.

    Ohio Mom

    SFAW: There are many better kosher wine options these days — none of them fabulous but much more palatable than Mogen David.

    The only time I see that stuff is at synagogue kiddishes, where the goal for filling the thimblefuls is cheapest and lowest common denominator. And Ashkenazi charoset recipes. One bottle provides for a lifetime of sedars.

  243. 243.

    SFAW

    @NotMax:

    Some people are so poor all they have is money.

    a/k/a Lucky Duckies. Haven’t seen much Bolling lately, but only because I haven’t looked.

  244. 244.

    SFAW

    @Ohio Mom:

    There are many better kosher wine options these days — none of them fabulous but much more palatable than Mogen David.

    You’re no fun.

  246. 246.

    Ohio Mom

    SFAW: Ohio Dad is one who “tries to keep kosher,” so I am more knowledgeable than I want to be on this subject. Every marriage has something you have to make peace with, that’s mine.

  247. 247.

    Just One More Canuck

    @SFAW: Too bad you never experienced the glories of fine 70’s Canadian wines like Baby Duck (think of a sweeter version of Mateus) and Moody Blue (defies any description except that it’s (per Monty Python), “a wine made for laying down and avoiding”)

  251. 251.

    frosty

    @SFAW: @Immanentize: Thunderbird or go home. Mad Dog is just a pretender, too sweet and doesn’t have that exquisite chemical aftertaste.

    ETA: I don’t remember the taste of Night Train. Is that one of the results from killing a bottle of it?

  252. 252.

    LadySuzy

    @Kay: It’s concerning though. Because a big portion of his base will believe the “fraud” stories. I expect things to get chaotic next week after Election Day.

  253. 253.

    WereBear

    @germy:

    The only book I enjoyed back then was “Writing Down The Bones: Freeing The Writer Within.”

     
    That’s a good one. I’m heavily into John Truby now, The Anatomy of Story: 22 Steps to Becoming a Master Storyteller. Impressive! I’m working through it slowly as I’m getting back into fiction, and getting good ideas as a result.

  254. 254.

    germy

    @WereBear:

    You’re an excellent writer.

    The only problem I had with “Writing Down The Bones” was that it got me journaling and journaling, rather than writing for publication.

  256. 256.

    Bill Arnold

    @debbie:

    According to NPR, Quakers are planning in the event there is a coup. Good god.

    People might want to read some of Gene Sharp’s works on forcing political transitions through non-violent actions; relatively short (basically short book length essays)
    https://www.aeinstein.org/search-by-title/
    The Anti-Coup
    From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation
    The last has rapidly become a classic. It’s generic, not specific to any particular country.
    (There are also other scholars on this with schemas for actionable plans.)

  257. 257.

    Elizabelle

    @WaterGirl:   I’m pretty sure that’s a staircase.  The dog has great form!

    And I laughed at the articles about the stranded Omaha Trump rally attendees.  Found a situation as dark and cold as their own souls.

  258. 258.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ken:

    But the real twist is that they’re all ninja-trained.

    The very early Quakers were not non-violent. They were associated with the New Model Army and the Levellers.
    Militant Seedbeds Of Early Quakerism (David Boulton, 2000)

    That means that, if we choose, we can look again at the New Earth which 1650s Friends strove to build in alliance with the New Model Army, and ask if we cannot pick up where they left off, building this time in alliance with the democratic process. Dare we resume the campaign for a society of equals, in which the power of peers and monarch are abolished and the mighty put down from their seats, a society which is not frightened to expropriate the rich to relieve the poor, a society which at last disestablishes the Church of England and deprives it of its indefensible privileges?

  260. 260.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    George Lakey is a Quaker activist who has been writing the book on nonviolent protest since the early 60s.

    G. Lakey is good. Here’s a The Guardian overview piece with links:
    Trump may try to steal the election. We need to start preparing for that now – According to the civil rights activist George Lakey, planning to defeat a coup can actually help reduce the chances of attempts to overthrow democracy (Ashley Dawson, Tue 20 Oct 2020)

  261. 261.

    Bill Arnold

    @germy:

    Deutsche Bank and other lenders have forgiven about $287 million in debt that Trump failed to repay.

    Are the tax implications? Is forgiven debt taxable?

  262. 262.

    Yutsano

    @Barbara: I really really REALLY would not count Bullock out. Montana is famous for splitting ballots. Bullock was a hugely popular governor and Daines might have sunk himself by not getting covid relief before the election. If it’s that close, I’d go for Bullock. Maybe it’s just my Western view, but he’s still worth supporting.

  263. 263.

    Yutsano

    @Bill Arnold:

    Is forgiven debt taxable?

    VERY MUCH SO. But if Dolt45 had it eaten up by his losses it’s a wash. That might be the only way it shows up on the return that I can think of off the top of my head.

  264. 264.

    Bill Arnold

    @Baud:

    The point of the smear is so that, if Biden dies in office, they’ll have normalized the conspiracy theory

    If Joe Biden dies early in office (or any time prior to that), a rumor/conspiracy theory will spread that D.J. Trump arranged for Biden’s assassination as revenge,; Trump has been proven multiple times to be a vengeful person. There will be a lot of angry people among America’s 330 millions, and, well. A coward like him will be deeply miserable with fear.

  265. 265.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @sanjeevs: Reagan got ZERO votes in 1988, since he was term-limited out of the Presidency and living on Planet Alzheimer at the time. The fucking imbecile Trumpista (but I repeat myself) who posted that couldn’t even remember basic US history correctly.**

    ** He will get at least one vote this year as a member of the Dead & Decaying Party, if my usually-sensible-though-GOP Governor did in fact write in The Gipper’s name on his ballot.

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