Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Not all heroes wear capes.

People are complicated. Love is not.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

This really is a full service blog.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Let’s Celebrate Today: It Didn’t Have To Be This Way

Let’s Celebrate Today: It Didn’t Have To Be This Way

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Think about where we were the day after 2016, and what has happened since.

Let's Celebrate Today: It Didn't Have To Be This Way

I listened to Pod Save America last night, and it was inspiring.

Are they worried?  Sure.  But they are also hopeful, and they are experiencing the same hope one minute, anxiety and worry the next minute swings that we are.

They talked about what has them hopeful, and I want to share what they said, because I think it’s important.

Tommy

There could be a big surge of voters for Trump on election day, but a vote banked is a vote banked.  Florida is at 72 or 75% of their total votes for 2016.  Of those votes, a quarter of them are people who didn’t vote in Florida in 2016.  Data nerds have been able to figure out that Biden has a 9 point advantage among those people, so Dems are voting early.  Among new voters there are suggestions that Dems are dong well there.  All of it could change, but it is hopeful.

Dan

We do not know what’s gonna happen.  Donald Trump could still win this election.  But if you think about where we were the day after the election in 2016, and what has happened since… It didn’t have to be this way.  

There was an alternative scenario where people just checked out and said fuck this, if politics is this broken that this guy can be elected with fewer votes, then I’m out.

The exact opposite thing happened.

We have had the incredible privilege to see people become engaged like never before.  It started with the women’s march and the amount of activism, with so many people putting so much on the line and giving so much of themselves to try to take this country back, to try to fix what happened in 2016.  It’s very inspiring and it’s very hopeful in the long run.

And the fact that people kept doing it.  This is not a time when people have extra money or extra energy, and people are struggling in this pandemic, and they are still working their assess off.

Jon Lovett

I was thinking about what we were worried about in the beginning, in the early days of 2017, and we had a lot of conversation about whether our institutions would hold up, and the jury is still out on that.

And we had a lot of conversations about what Trump could do and a lot of fear that we would have a crisis, and the crisis that we feared, happened, and it cost us dearly.

At the same time we had the women’s march and the protest against the muslim ban, there was this fear that this coalition would be exhausted and that the kind of powerlessness and disenfranchisement that comes in facing an improv authoritarian like Trump would exhaust people.

Worried that maybe by the time we got to 2018 or 2020 that people would have given up or run out of steam.  Or the stakes and the fear and the anxiety and just disagreement would create a rift that would drive inside of the democratic coalition.  That happens when you face an authoritarian.  That happens when you face right-wing nationalists.

We head into this election with an incredibly united coalition that runs all the way from the right of our party to AOC and Bernie and the Lincoln Project.  And everyone has behaved.  It’s an extraordinary thing.  We will decide what we think of the Lincoln Project come Wednesday.  It’s a messy coalition, but in the background everyone is aware that Donald Trump is the real threat.

What our party has done is extraordinary. That’s an extraordinary moment in history.  That’s never happened before. We never faced a threat like this before, and we never responded like this before.  So a lot of the uncertainty comes from that.  But I think we should be incredibly hopeful about what we built and what we did together.  Because it didn’t have to go this way.

Listen to the podcast.  They started talking about this stuff around the 53 minute mark.

Reader Interactions

178Comments

  11. 11.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Thanks for this.  I think Biden wins, we take the Senate, and we take a few state legislatures as well.  We have all worked for this since the election in 2016.  Once we win, we should take a deep breath and enjoy the moment, and then we need to get to work on fixing all the shit?

    OT:  Where are Adam and Yarrow?  I am spending the day watching Six Nations Rugby and there is no one to talk to.

  16. 16.

    James E Powell

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I did not know there were other rugby fans here. I’m a recent convert, got addicted after watching the All or Nothing series on the New Zealand All Blacks.

  19. 19.

    The Moar You Know

    I have been waiting since 2016 for my corner taco truck.  By God, I get it in January 2021.

  21. 21.

    lol chikinburd

    Apropos only of spoopy, the band clipping. remain woefully underknown especially by folks like yours truly who only just recently heard of them and why god.  Experimental hiphop trio out of L.A., fronted by Daveed Diggs, that Daveed Diggs.  They’ve released two mind-blowing horrorcore albums in as many Octobers, and while I never cared for that genre of film Diggs’s storytelling makes it more than worthwhile.

    NSFW language and content, naturally, but their lyric videos do slap (harder than any official videos, I’d say, because you want to preserve imagination).  Sorry, just needed to fan-gush about something seasonal.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @James E Powell: No spoilers on the Six Nations please.  I am watch France v Ireland now. Hoping for a French overall win, but doubting that they can beat Ireland by the needed 31 points.

    But, yeah, Yarrow, Adam, and I are all fans.  I played when I was younger; I am not sure if the other two did.  I played mainly as a wing (back before Lomu reinvented the position for giants) – wanted to be a flanker but wasn’t really big enough.

  24. 24.

    Yutsano

    @The Moar You Know: You live in Southern California. Your corners should be lousy with those. :P

    I’m still in cautious optimism mode. But the pundits have always said greater turnout is better for Democrats. I’m not going to pay attention to too much on election night save if they call Florida or Pennsylvania for Biden it’s game over.

    Side note: I get to do something I haven’t done since I started voting. I’m actually going to be voting in person on Election Day. My ballot never showed up in the new PO Box so right after professional torture I get to head to the voting site. I always voted absentee and by the time I actually had my own address Washington went to all vote by mail. So this will be kind of interesting for me.

  25. 25.

    David ?Booooooo!? Koch

    Bernie went on Seth Meyers and attacked the Democrats which is the surest sign we’re going to win, cuz he never attacks republicans when they’re in office.

  27. 27.

    MC

    I’ve found myself unable to maintain positive thought over the past week. Does anyone know how I can be mostly insensitive for the next 3-ish days?

  28. 28.

    Soprano2

    You should listen to the volunteers who came on after,  too. I’m listening right now,  and it’s inspiring to hear these ordinary people talk about what they’re doing to help Democrats get elected and what inspired them to do it.

  33. 33.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @David ?Booooooo!? Koch: a smart politician, a team player, might’ve turned that into a moment to talk about everything Dems have done for working people, about all the things they’ve tried to do but were blocked by Republicans, might’ve talked about the effect a rightwing supreme court will have on workers’ rights and lives.

    Alas, Seth wanted to have Bernie on.

    Meyers is talented, and I enjoy his long pieces– “a closer look”, but when it comes to politics he’s an overgrown upper middle class college bro

  36. 36.

    Bruuuuce

    This might be a good place to remind folks (if anyone needs a reminder) that tonight is the Rocky Horror Show livestream to benefit WisDems. Lots of good talent there. And tellingly, while Susan Sarandon appears in the Time Warp trailer they’ve done, her name doesn’t appear anywhere in the promos.

  37. 37.

    West of the Rockies

    I find myself saying aloud (to those I love and trust) that I would be fine with every last damn Trump true believer dying of Covid or–like an idiot–saying that maybe with enough hard knocks they are redeemable.  Are they though?  I’m sure Trumpistas love their kids, don’t kick puppies for pleasure, make good chili, can tell a good ghost story (you know, normal human stuff)…

    But they are racist money pigs who are endangering people and the planet.  The angels of my better nature are flummoxed.

  40. 40.

    West of the Rockies

    OT DIY question… Can I get away with just one coat of poly on kitchen cabinetry?  It looks okay to me, and I wouldn’t mind not spending another two hours inhaling fumes.

  43. 43.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    damn, I wish there were a taco truck on my corner right now

    Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn·1h
    New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls
    MI Biden+12, 53-41
    AZ Biden+4, 50-46
    WI Biden+8, 52-44
    NC Biden+6, 51-45

  45. 45.

    The Moar You Know

    OT DIY question… Can I get away with just one coat of poly on kitchen cabinetry?  It looks okay to me, and I wouldn’t mind not spending another two hours inhaling fumes.

    @West of the Rockies: Paint expert here.  Yes.  I hope you are using the wipe-on poly.  If no, you can stop now, just wait a couple of days, and if any of it looks bad just tape off what’s around the cabinets and hit them with a good dose of wipe-on.

    That being said, one will probably be enough.  I did my mantle with just one and it came out fine.

  48. 48.

    West of the Rockies

    Thank you to any/all who answer(ed) my polyurethane inquiry.  I’m in NorCal, so humidity definitely isn’t an issue.

    I’m not seeing any bubbles and the Minwax fast-dry oil-based stuff didn’t run or drip much.  I did the coat, touched over any streaky spots after a few minutes for each door and drawer.  Got everything opened up for fresh air because, man, that stuff is fragrant.

    Following up with a Sierra Nevada Hazy IPA.  A nice little buzz (though it could also be the poly fumes).

    I wondered when I first posted if anyone would confuse poly(urethane) for polyamory–that would have been a weird DIY inquiry!

  49. 49.

    Mousebumples

    I’m taking a page out of The Princess Bride tonight and making a chocolate covered “pill” (a la Miracle Max) for getting rid of Prince Trumperdinck.

    Plan is to make brownies, underbake them, cut and roll them into balls, bake them longer, and then dip in melted chocolate chips.

    Should be a fun diversion – plus chocolate will hopefully help with election related anxiety.

  50. 50.

    planetjanet

    @James E Powell: We exist.  I messed up on the procession of the rules thinking that if France got a bonus point today over England, they would tie England in match points, then since France beat England earlier, would win the series.  I was wrong.  England won on point differential.  It is a sad day for all Celts.

  55. 55.

    MoCA Ace

    @West of the Rockies:  Spray, brush, or wipe on?  and what is under it?  with just stained wood I would go three coats of wipe-on.  For spray or brush-on I would do two.  Kitchen cabinets see a lot of hard use.

  57. 57.

    Ruckus

    @The Moar You Know:

    Used to have a great taco truck come to work for lunch. It was owned by a Russian immigrant and his wife. Quite good food, taco truck or not. One of the best days was when one of his customers from next door told him he wanted to go back to Russia because life was better. This Russian taco truck owner, really, really chewed his ass out in public about what was better, late 70s-early 80s Russia or the US. He chose the US overwhelmingly. Amazingly after that their food tasted even better.

  63. 63.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: I’ll admit I’ve been looking for the “coming home” effect we heard so much about in ’16, and I’m not seeing it.

  65. 65.

    LuciaMia

     how I can be mostly insensitive for the next 3-ish days?

    Fentanyl patch.

    (Seriously tho, not really.)

  76. 76.

    James E Powell

    @MC:

    I want to go into one of those sensory deprivation tanks like in the movie Altered States and if by some horrible thing Trump wins, don’t bring me out.

  80. 80.

    JPL

    @WaterGirl: I’ve actually refinished a fair amount of furniture.  The most interesting piece, I actually use in my kitchen.  It’s an old engineering table, that was in the basement of a house we purchased.   Anyhoo   long story short, I wanted to make it presentable for college kid’s apartment.   I stripped it, and then distressed it with whatever.    After all that, I took out a drawer and turned it over and there was a date..and the manufacturer’s name.   1882.   Son’s response was whoops, too late now.

  84. 84.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @WaterGirl: those four, PA and blessed Florida, I think. Mike Murphy, who always strikes me as one of the most reluctant of the Never Trumpers, said Biden is going to take Florida and take it early. He ran on of Jeb’s campaign.

  85. 85.

    MoCA Ace

    @West of the Rockies:

    I’m with The Moar You Know.  I like the wipe-on poly.  For me the ease of use and lower incidence of drips and runs is great… even though you need more coats.  I would go with a light sanding then another brush-on coat.  Or you can thin the poly a little and wipe it on.

  88. 88.

    Ian

    @germy:   In Spanish accent–  GOOOOOOOOOO OAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA LLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

    Sorry for the interruption.  Could not contain myself there.

    edited by WG because long lines like that with no spaces break the margins on phones.

  95. 95.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Just got dusty here at my laptop

    Tim Hogan @timjhogan· 23m
    The Biden campaign had Brayden Harrington, the boy who bonded with Joe over stuttering, record a closing campaign ad and now I am crying

    remember all the people watching Lincoln Project ads and saying “Why can’t we make ads like that…”?

  97. 97.

    Dan B

    @West of the Rockies:  Having done much polyurethane application 2 coats is a minimum.  One will probably look streaky or patchy in six months even if it looks fine now.  My father worked as a chemist for PPG for many years and we often did three coats.

  102. 102.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @planetjanet: As I said above, I knew it was unlikely that France could beat Ireland by 31, so France winning the tournament was unlikely.  I like what I am seeing from the French team.  So for me, a positive overall result.

    Once the US is eliminated from international competition, France is my go-to international side in soccer and rugby.  I also support Racing 92 in European rugby.

  103. 103.

    Kathleen

    @prostratedragon: I. Love. This. Song. Have loved it for years. I should put this on endless loop Tuesday night as I need to devise an Election Night stategy. I refuse to watch TV and listen to the pixel puking Pundinastis.

  107. 107.

    catclub

    @Ruckus: I think in Soviet Russia you could be miserably poor but feel like you were sharing that with your social group.  IN the US you could be much better off, but missed the (pun intended) cameraderie of not being isolated.

  111. 111.

    planetjanet

    @Omnes Omnibus: My first love is Scotland (after USA, but they are really on different planets).  The first match I ever saw was at Murrayfield against Wales.  I am missing Grieg Laidlaw, but the boys did okay today.  For once I wasn’t worried about the wooden spoon.

  118. 118.

    catclub

    @Ken: Cats, on the other hand, are all clearly planning bloody revenge.

     

    and isn’t that what Halloween is all about, after all?

  125. 125.

    Ken

    @James E Powell: I want to go into one of those sensory deprivation tanks like in the movie Altered States and if by some horrible thing Trump wins, don’t bring me out.

    If I recall that movie correctly, we might want to pull you out so you can use your arcane powers to destroy us all.

  131. 131.

    TS (the original)

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Best thing about those polls – Biden is at 50% or greater in every one of them. The number of undecided/no answer is 4-6%. This helps reduce my worries. Hillary never got to 50% on any of them.

  132. 132.

    PsiFighter37

    Final Selzer poll in Iowa has Trump up 7 and GOP slated to take 3 of the 4 House seats. Feel like this may be the year they are off…none of the other polling statewide (in Iowa or elsewhere) or nationally reads that way.

  135. 135.

    debbie

    I was over on Twitter reading Daniel Dale and Trump’s really sounding desperate at whatever rally he’s bellowing at.

  139. 139.

    WaterGirl

    I love that Barack video of him making the basket!

    He is not, however, modeling good mask behavior by pulling down his mask in order to SHOUT “that’s what I do!” right at the guy who is walking behind him.

  147. 147.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @WaterGirl: We shouldn’t be looking for perfection from people.  If everyone observed the level of mask discipline that he shows, we would be a lot better off.

  148. 148.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    I’m torn between hope and fear, I confess. For example, in Florida, there are signs that there was deliberate mail suppression, to reduce ballot deliveries. The AG has ordered certain post offices to provide all ballots to the election office immediately.

    There have been ballot harvesters, who can’t be trusted in today’s day and age, where Republicans are hearing bullshit like “Trump can only lose if the election is rigged” and who therefore might cheat on the assumption that “they are, too!”

    And on election day, I can’t help but fear for violence or intimidation at Democratic strongholds in close states.

    Because in the end, the Republicans have a visceral understanding that it doesn’t matter how horrible, how awful, how obvious, any ploy is, if they can somehow make sure that there are more Republican ballots than Democratic, nothing else matters. Heck, they don’t even need to do *that* – they just need to need enough Republican ballots to *claim* victory, even if they’re behind. I mean, let’s be honest: if a dozen groups, with right wing ties, all caused destruction of ballots, or intimidation, or even violence, they’ll use *that* as “proof” that Republicans were unjustly denied a win, and try to get it reversed in the courts.

    And we know they’ll say “this is *totally* different from Gore and Kerry trying to steal the election!” even if it’s 100% clear that, yes, it’s very different from Gore, and from Kerry’s lack of attempt, because this really *is* an attempt to retroactively change the totals, is is without basis – and the political press will act like such statements are reasonable. After all, during impeachment, the press acted it was anything but a bad faith, baseless assertion to say “oh, come now, abuse of office? Extortion? Obstruction? Just because he misused his official powers, broke the law, engaged in extortion, and covered it up? *THAT* is no reason to remove him from office!”

  154. 154.

    Matt McIrvin

    There was a flood of state polls today, and that Selzer poll was the one and only piece of bad news among them. Probably just a statistical fluctuation, but who knows? (Selzer is a good company but the sample is small, and it covered the same time period as some radically different polls.) Certainly not worth rating it over everything else that dropped as a picture of the nation. I kind of doubt Biden is ahead in Iowa but it’s still really close there.

    I see that Trump’s presidential approval has jumped up as a result of a bunch of R-leaning surveys that haven’t reported in a while suddenly dropping results that look like Rasmussen at the same time. Odd that this is happening without any visible shift in the presidential race.

  157. 157.

    Sally

    @Omnes Omnibus: I am also a fan. Husband and sons played, Oxford, Vandy, Cambridge. We are Super Rugby fans, and follow the Bledisloe, more than the Six Nations. Wallabies just got creamed, again.

  159. 159.

    CaseyL

    I have a small bag of candy in case any T&Ters show up.  I might just put them out on the porch in a bowl not sure yet.

    Well!   After searching for anyone who still needs phone-banking, but isn’t using that unholy phone-computer-interactive survey, I was contacted by WA State Dems who assured me they would be able to support me figuring out the damn system.  So I guess I’m phone banking with them tomorrow.  It seems only about 50% of the VBM ballots have been returned, which astonishes and alarms me.

    God.  This election.  I just want to curl up, go into hibernation, and not wake up for two years.

  160. 160.

    planetjanet

    @Sally: Why do they even play the Bledisoe any more?  It is always the All Blacks.  People were hooping and hollering because the Aussies played to a draw in game 1.

  162. 162.

    TS (the original)

    @PsiFighter37:

    That poll makes zero sense when you look at some of the details

    In fact, many of their votes have already been cast. As early and mail-in voting surges because of the pandemic, 51% of likely voters say they have already voted, surpassing previous milestones.

    Among those who have already voted, Biden leads 55% to 32%. And among those who have yet to vote, Trump leads 64% to 28%. 

    Biden’s votes are banked.

  163. 163.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @TS (the original): I took statistics as an undergrad, got a 20% on the first of three exams, which grade I got the day before the final drop date. So I know nothing about nothing about polling, but Nate Silver and David Wasserman are both unimpressed with the sample size

    Nate Silver@NateSilver538·36m
    I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.

  164. 164.

    TS (the original)

    @lamh36:

    And I still wonder how many of those supporters follow him around from state to state until they become ill with covid-19.

  169. 169.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @HumboldtBlue: not to pick nits, but for at least one picture he should have put a small pillow under his shirt and posed kneeling on his shoes like Tim Conway’s Dorf character.

  170. 170.

    Sally

    @planetjanet: Because there is nothing, nothing, NZ’ers love more than beating Australia. And the Aussies are insane. You know, keep doing that same thing but it will be different this time! lol

  171. 171.

    Ken

    @catclub: My statistics is rusty, but I think the Central Limit Theorem applies here.  Basically if each poll really is a random sample of the population, then the distribution of the poll results (means) is a Gaussian.  The distribution of the underlying population doesn’t matter.

  174. 174.

    Prometheus Shrugged

    @The Moar You Know: A taco truck just started parking on my corner on weekends about a month ago. Maybe they looked at the polling and wanted to get a jump on the competition! I have to say, it’s pretty awesome. The tacos are not the greatest I’ve ever had (though if you’re a fan of cabeza and lengua, it’s not too bad) but the convenience is impossible to beat.  So I’m in full support of the proposition.

  175. 175.

    J R in WV

    @JPL:

    We have had our grid power shut off for 2 weeks a couple of times. That’s why we have a whole house generator hooked up to the natural gas line. It won’t run the AC, it will run the heat and everything else.

    Pretty inconvenient… really. In AZ we’re off the grid, solar panels. it was less expensive than the connection to the grid system…

  176. 176.

    LadySuzy

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I I just can’t believe that Bernie discredited the democrats three days before the most important election in our life time.

    He just convinced a few young people to stay home, I’m sure.

    I can’t say what I’m thinking. My post would be deleted.

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