Norm Ornstein retweeted this article by a Democratic political consultant, who believes that Pelosi’s endgame is to get Trump to resign. Perhaps my brain is addled by middle-of-the-night doomscrolling, but I wanted to write down all the reasons why this could happen, in no particular order. (Note that this isn’t what the consultant said — it’s my best effort, but you might want to read his article first.)
Let’s take for granted the obvious: Trump will not resign because of shame or duty, only self-interest. (I don’t know if I even needed to say that.) So here are some reasons that it might be in Trump’s interest:
- The impeachment articles that will be voted Monday include a provision that Trump never hold any federal office. The only office he wants is the Presidency. If he resigns, he probably takes the wind out of the impeachment (plus conviction/removal by the Senate) sails.
- Impeachment (plus conviction/removal by the Senate) will strip Trump of Secret Service protection and the couple million bucks that he’ll get every year, and he is a greedy grifter who probably loves having Secret Service around. Resignation won’t.
- It’s not totally obvious that an impeached Trump wouldn’t be removed by the Senate. It’s still a long shot, but it’s pretty clear that more video and more evidence will keep leaking out showing that Trump orchestrated a coup attempt, and the usual bullshit about hurt feelings making them do it don’t seem to be sticking this time.
- Self-pardons are legally dodgy. Challenging the ban on Federal Office holding from his possible impeachment is legally dodgy. Trump has probably lost faith that “his” judges will have his back after none of them even gave his bullshit lawsuits more than a glancing look before they dismissed them out of hand.
- It wouldn’t take a big leap of faith to expect that Pence will pardon Trump on the way out. One scenario is that Trump pardons his family, resigns, and Pence immediately pardons Trump.
- Trump was banned by every mainstream social media platform. Almost immediately after that, Google removed Parler from their app store, and Apple has Parler on a 24 hour clock to basically become a non-violent platform. Not gonna happen, they’re toast on the App Store. This signals that there’s not going to be a “Twitter for the Alt Right” that has a mobile app — Apple and Google will just ban them all if they don’t have very restrictive terms of service. This is not in Trump’s interest because he wanted to find a new shitposting home, preferably one that will pay him to shitpost, and big tech is going to deny him that. If he’s impeached and removed, he’s definitely never getting a platform back. Who knows if he resigns (especially if he’s pardoned on the way out).
- A real pardon from Pence still leaves Trump open to state charges in New York and probably elsewhere, but those charges aren’t sedition, and I’m sure his attorneys will tell him that he’s in real federal jeopardy because of his actions.
All of this assumes that Trump could act rationally in his own self-interest and at this point he’s probably not capable of that, but here it is, for what it’s worth.
(Edited to be clear about Impeachment vs Impeachment plus removal by the Senate — sorry I wasn’t clear.)
Albatrossity
That’s my theory too. Nancy is also threatening to make GOPers vote on things that they don’t want to vote on, ever, and thus increasing their incentives to pressure him to resign as well.
Lapassionara
I’m all in favor of Trump losing his Secret Service protection. I’m thinking impeachment would mean no presidential library for him either, which is a very good idea.
Princess
That’s why Murkowski is putting the pressure on too. I don’t think it will work.
karensky
Very helpful post. Thanks.
BottyGuy
If impeached Mitch won’t let the impeachment trial start til the 19th, nothing will happen the 20th, it’s likely that Shumer’s in charge by the 21st or 22nd. By then many republicans will want to take him out of the 2024 equation.
narya
Does impeachment really strip Secret Service protection? Would not have expected that.
Van Buren
I don’t think he will resign. I really don’t think he will be convicted by the Senate. What I can’t understand is how it benefits Cruz, Cotton, and Hawley to keep kissing his ass. If he’s still around, they have no shot in 2024.
mvr
From what I’ve read the Senate would need unanimous consent to consider impeachment before the 19th. They won’t get that. They can still impeach him after he leaves office. But it won’t remove him. So resignation would be better, but I think it unlikely.
CarolDuhart2
Presidential Libraries are usually privately funded, but this will definitely dry up contributions. And unless it’s at Mar-A-Lago, good luck with finding a site either.
Trump may want to leave town, but he needs Secret Service protection. He’s made too many enemies here and abroad and owes too much money to others to walk around like a mere citizen.
And he’s broke. $410 million owed to dubious people broke. He has no way of monetizing his Presidency now. No books, no talks, no seats on boards.
evodevo
He’s a narcissistic sociopath…he’ll never resign, unless they give him a personality transplant from a rational person, or Vlad yanks his chain…he’d never commit suicide, either. I don’t know how this will end up, but it won’t be pretty…
cintibud
@mvr: Could you please explain how that works? I haven’t heard that before
Gvg
I don’t think Pence will pardon him. He tried to get Pence killed.
I could see him trying to name a different successor, but it wouldn’t work. I don’t think he is capable of understanding laws that say he can’t do what he wants.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Realistically, I think our best hope is that “soft 25th amendment” people keep talking about, unless Letitia James is willing to god in on an immunity deal, which frankly I hope she doesn’t.
germy
@narya:
I don’t understand that part. Did Bill Clinton lose his secret service protection? What am I missing here?
BretH
Another analysis making the case for resignation:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AshaRangappa_/status/1347778514888642561
CarolDuhart2
@germy: Clinton was acquitted, and remained President. So he retained his presidential privileges.
Matt
Any Dem who wilts like this shouldn’t even get a committee assignment. He literally just incited a mob to try to murder Congress; if _that_ doesn’t merit a permanent barring from federal office and removal of perks, why do we even HAVE laws?
Skepticat
This all is very much too little too late; however, though I think it’s extremely unlikely, I do want to see him impeached and convicted. Just for once, I need to see him bear the consequences of his actions. And that goes for the other Rethuglicans too, though you and I know it never will happen.
DocH
“It wouldn’t take a big leap of faith to expect that Pence will pardon Trump on the way out.” That leap is getting longer and longer. My impression is that Donny no longer trusts Pence and that Pence may have finally figured out Donny’s m.o.
NotMax
I don’t quite grasp where this talk of it removing Secret Service and quashing pension comes from as both of those are tied to the office, not a contractual agreement with the individual officeholder.
Cheryl Rofer
Nice thread here, overlapping MrMix’s reasons.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@narya: @germy: Impeachment, conviction and removal means the loss of all those post-office benefits, I think
@cintibud: my understanding is McConnell could waive unanimous consent to proceed, but he doesn’t want to
germy
@CarolDuhart2:
Ah! I see.
RandomMonster
I think resignation will become a more and more attractive option for Trump. As mistermix said, the self-pardon is legally untested. Better for Trump to pardon his kids and acoloytes, resign, and receive a pardon himself.
sdhays
@Lapassionara: I’m pretty sure Presidential libraries are privately funded, so if Putin wants to fund the construction, he can still have a “library” in Florida.
I don’t see Donnie resigning unless he’s convinced that he’s going to lose an impeachment trial in the Senate, particularly before Biden takes office. And even then, his back is so far up the wall that I figure he’d still want to roll the die and hope an Andrew Johnson result.
Spanky
I believe he can be impeached even after resignation, no? And I hope they go through with it.
Should add that I don’t think he’ll resign in any case. Resignation is for losers.
mvr
@cintibud:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-impeachment-trump-mcconnell/2021/01/08/5f650ad0-520d-11eb-b2e8-3339e73d9da2_story.html
The Senate is thus unlikely to start with an impeachment trial leading to conviction before he is out of office. But they can have the trial after he is gone and it will have some legal effects.
NotMax
@Lapassionara
No, no no. Do not want to see such a trove of documents and records scattered to the winds.
Croaker
@germy: House votes Senate convicts. Senate requires 2/3s majority for conviction. Clinton was impeached but never removed from office. No President has.
germy
mrmoshpotato
Via Popehat
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NotMax: People on twitter are saying that his tweets are now lost to history. I’m a pretty hopeless luddite, but that doesn’t make sense to me. Dorsey doesn’t have them on some server (not even sure that’s the word, i’m so dense on this) somewhere?
Meanwhile, enjoy a little schadenfreude from Vanity Fair, even though I’m not sure it will come true
“The stink of his family is nearly impossible to get off. How do you associate yourself with the worst, most toxic people in U.S. history?“
Jim Appleton
@CarolDuhart2:
I’ll happily fund the library if it’s an empty weedpatch on our southern border.
topclimber
OK I am getting tired of posting this idea on two dead threads. Maybe third time will be the charm.
I posted a day or so ago about what I think is a viable path to impeachment, one that does not result in Trump’s trial distracting from Dems getting a start in the Senate from Day 1.
As I read the impeachment law, the House does not send over its impeachment findings until impeachment managers have been named. When impeaching a sitting President, you want to do it fast. When impeaching one for the purpose of punishing him (taking away perks, preventing another shot at elective office) you drag it out.
Let’s say the House votes impeachment but then takes a year to research its case. Surely the impeachment managers want to be thorough and Schumer would not press them for charges like Mitch did on the first go round.
You make the case and bring it to the Senate in time for the runup to the 2022 elections. Remind everybody about what we know now about Trump’s sedition, plus what looking under rocks for a year finds out about him and his enablers. Make vulnerable GOP Senators go on record supporting him and or explaining their own collusion.
Bottom line: Impeach the f—ker and use the Agency the House has in the process to control the timing.
Another interesting fact: Folks have been worried about how some Dems are listed as “No” votes on the KOS list. What I haven’t seen discussed is only about a dozen GOP Reps have said the same. This can’t be right, right?
JanieM
@Van Buren:
Maybe they think that by 2024 he will be so far gone (by whatever combination of drugs, ill health, age, whatever) that it will be obvious to everyone that he can’t actually run. But by kissing his ass now they will have avoided alienating his lunatic following.
Love to think about them clawing each other into ribbons to be the one..
sdhays
John Judis was brought up earlier this week, and he has another predictably stupid post up today at TPM saying that impeachment is a trap for the Democrats. I think the big tell with Judis is that his stuff is never Prime content because Prime users aren’t paying for his shit.
Zee Lizzee
I don’t think he’ll resign. His emotions are too hot and won’t cool off for months. I suspect that he will continue to ‘break’ everything within reach. As much as she is a horrible human, Melania is in physical danger right now and should get out.
sdhays
@topclimber: My feeling is that the iron is hot now, so now is when you need to strike. If the impeachment trial happens next year, we’ll have to keep explaining why we’re impeaching a guy who’s no longer in office, because it doesn’t fit with the usual understanding of impeachment. And the adage that “if you’re explaining, you’re losing” is, unfortunately, pretty true.
If we wait, some Republican Senators who are fed up with Dump right now will not see the necessity next year in pissing off his supporters in the run up to an election. I’d rather Democrats run 2022 on a successful resolution to COVID and a surging economy.
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
Errant bullsh*t. (Pardon my French.)
re: Vanity Fair
“How many orders have stacked up for Ivanka’s new “Greatest American” designer wear line?
“One. And that’s gratis.”
Baud
Impeachment is necessary so the Senate can act quickly if things get more out of hand than they already are.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@sdhays: As you indicate, the American people are not thoughtful Constitutionalists, and they have short memories.
also, barring some new revelations or dangerous move by trump, you’re never going to get to two-thirds in the Senate, so a historical record of one house standing up to do the right thing is about all we’re gonna get. I think that’s important. And you might get Romney, Murkowski and Sasse and one or two others if Schumer brings it up soon. More for the historical recor
@Baud: that too, it’s a point Josh Barro made yesterday. Having a House bill hanging over his head is not the worst thing for these dangerous last days.
topclimber
@sdhays: Impeachment now is the equivalent of a Grand Jury bringing an indictment based on strong, but usually not conclusive evidence. Trial later is a way to avoid the distraction of a trial while Biden/Harris launch their administration.
Trial now means no punishment for Trump because no way do we reach conviction and all we do is keep the a-hole in the news during the first 100 days.
NotMax
@Baud
Norman, coordinate.
BroD
@Van Buren: ” If he’s still around”
So what are the odds? Not great in my book.
BR
@mvr:
Does anyone know senate rules well enough to know if there are any ways around Mitch’s claim that unanimous consent is required for restarting the senate before the 19th? Is it just unanimity of those who are present (like if a few show up in the middle of the night, can they vote to reopen the senate), or literally every member of the senate?
The Moar You Know
He tried to murder Pence by proxy, and not only that, but Pence’s wife and daughter were in hiding with him in shelter while they were hearing people running up and down the corridors screaming “Find Pence!” They weren’t looking to give him a Major Award, I think we all know that.
I know that Pence is a spineless piece of crap but everyone’s got a limit and I think an experience like that would be anyone’s limit. I’d hope so, for Pence’s own mental health if nothing else. Maybe he is that beat down. But were I Trump, I would be very hesitant about putting my life and freedom in the hands of Mike Pence. Yet another opportunity the man has squandered. Before this, Pence would have pardoned him with no hesitation at all.
Baud
@NotMax:
It’s all we got if Pence won’t pull the trigger on the 25th amendment.
Gravenstone
@germy: Clinton wasn’t convicted. I think the argument is that if Trump is convicted after a second impeachment, then his benefits accruing from federal office would be stripped.
sdhays
@topclimber: There is absolutely no evidence that can be uncovered in the next 12-15 months that will make a conviction in the Senate more likely. Impeachment is a political act, not a legal one; you need no more evidence than the last two impeachments. The only evidence that can possibly result in a conviction is visceral sense of violation that the Senators are feeling right now and the growing concern over what Dump might do in the next few days.
My expectation is that even that’s not enough for a conviction because they’re Republicans. But it’s the absolute best shot, and it will all be gone next year.
Leto
Personally I want this one. Do not give this piece of shit one more tax payer dollar in the form of $, Secret Service, anything. Nothing. Abso-fucking-lutely nothing. Now to go back and read comments.
dmsilev
@sdhays: I regard seeing his byline on a TPM post as a warning label not to read it. On this particular one, I saw the headline and the bit posted to TPM’s front page, noted that he was in agreement with Hugh Hewitt, and immediately went and read something else.
NotMax
@BR
It is unassailibly so in the House, which is why they are not in formal session over this weekend. In the Senate, a gray area subject to the whim or interpretation of the leadership, as that body is not technically in adjournment.
sdhays
@The Moar You Know: I was thinking like this on Wednesday and Thursday, but now I’m back to thinking that Mike Dense is such a pathetic nothing that he will do as he’s told, no matter what.
But I absolutely believe that Dump doesn’t trust him at all, especially now.
Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Twitter most definitely does have Trump’s tweets backed up somewhere — likely more than one somewhere. Dorsey was making noise a while ago about them tweets being part of Trump’s presidential record. He may consider them too toxic now to be publicly available. But I think historians, at least, should have access to them for research.
Chyron HR
@germy:
Holy shit, is there any way we can trick the GOP into formally enacting the “American right” to utility service in legislation?
Wag
I think that you’re right that Trump will pardon his family and then resign. I also think there’s a non-zero chance that Pence will remit on any deal to pardon Trump, and leave him hung out to dry.
dmsilev
So, are McConnell’s hands really tied by Senate procedure (“Oh no, I’d love to call the Senate into session next week, but unanimous consent, so sorry can’t do it unless Rand Paul signs off”) or is he just doing his normal obstruction-by-delay thing? I’m not sure it’s really the right strategy for him though. If he does punt it, then (a) anything Trump does to incite more violence can be blamed on Moscow Mitch and (b) any trial after the 20th will be run by Chuck Schumer and his team, who can “give the President’s legal team a few weeks to prepare” and then convict the fucker in March or thereabouts. Still good for cutting off future running-for-office (and hence now-fundraising) etc., even if it doesn’t help with our current “lunatic running the country” emergency.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Peaceful patriots just wanting their voices to be heard. But I kinda wanna have a few jars with his parents and discuss the whole Cleveland Grover decision.
@Amir Khalid: thanks, I thought so. And those tweets are like a map to the madness of the last five years.
dmsilev
@Amir Khalid: Several third parties have been archiving Trump’s tweets, especially since he and his social-media team sometimes deleted the worst of them once the blowback lit off. They’re available for posterity.
Poor posterity.
Felanius Kootea
I don’t think he’ll resign. He no longer trusts Pence (if he ever did) and resigning requires that he trust Pence to pardon him (over a self-pardon). He’ll take his chances that he will be impeached by the House but not convicted by the Senate, so he can still run in 2024, maintain his Secret Service protection, control the Republican Party, etc.
germy
Lock him up.
MattF
Yes, resignation would be rational— but no, he’s not going to resign. Just not gonna happen.
Suzanne
@The Moar You Know: If Pence doesn’t pardon Trump, Pence will have to live the rest of his life in fear of being killed by a MAGAt.
I suspect he would do it just so he could sleep at night. His political career is done either way. Wrestle with a pig, lie down with a dog, etc.
NotMax
@germy
NYC:
“We guarantee an uninterrupted supply of power from coal-fired plants.”
(aide tugs on speaker’s sleeve) “Um, we don’t have any of those anymore,.”
(stage whisper) “I know.”
patrick II
@germy:
Bill wasn’t convicted in the Senate. We tend to say “impeachment” when we mean “impeachment and conviction”.
sdhays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: So, he knew he was breaking the law, but still let the FBI search all of his stuff? Not the sharpest cookie in the jar, is he?
topclimber
@sdhays: Perhaps I did not make it clear that I am talking about making the best out of our bad choices.
Impeach now and Mitch pushes off the trial til next year. Said trial dominates the news just as Biden administration gets underway. GOP does not convict so where’s the gain?
Impeach now and delay the trial until well after Biden hits the ground running on those issues you rightly point out should be the Dem target for 2022: controlling the pandemic and salvaging the economy.
I disagree that time will not reveal more Trump/GOP sedition and be worth exposing at his trial. Be very clear that the reason you are doing this deliberately is because you believe Trump is unfit for future office. Force the GOP to own his/their record once again as we head into 2022 elections.
Of course, at the trial the GOP refuses to back conviction.
Same outcome, but only in the legal sense. Much better for our ongoing war with these shitheads.
Leto
@Chyron HR: the dumbest people possible, making the dumbest arguments possible.
sdhays
@germy: Expel him from the House.
patrick II
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
McConnell the sociopathic seditionist enabler. If they would have actually found Pence and hung him, McConnell would still be avoiding Trump’s conviction.
cmorenc
If Trump was rational, he would have realized that his chances to overturn the 2020 election were small but his chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2024 were excellent, and with the GOP still even narrowly controlling the Senate through the next four years, the chances the GOP could have obstructed and frustrated the Biden Administration’s chances for successful reelection in 2024 (or if Biden didn’t run for a 2nd term, whomever the D candidate would be). And in the interim, Trump could have continued dominating the GOP and intimidating anyone within it who dared to cross him, and continued fundraising and building an immense war-chest (which he could have grifted off). And Trump could have announced that even though he should have been the winner but/for gross irregularities, in the interests of the country he was not going to further challenge the 2020 results, but rather he’d run to win again in 2024 – he could have projected a bit of pragmatic statesmanship without actually conceding that Biden’s election victory was legitimately won.
But nooooo, Trump was so narcissistic and used to successfully bullying anyone standing in his way that he couldn’t think rationally or strategically how to best serve his own interests. It’s doubtful Trump truly understood what an enormously risky all-in gamble he was taking inciting an angry crowd to march on the Capitol during the electoral college certification session.
Geminid
@Amir Khalid: People will be able to research trump’s tweets at the trump presidential (virtual) library. The physical library could be a windowless building housing some servers. With one of those Little Free Library boxes outside, stocked with copies of “The Art of the Deal.”
Frank Wilhoit
“It’s not totally obvious that Trump wouldn’t be removed by the Senate….”
Yes, it is, but only for one reason. It is because doing so would give the Democrats a scalp. That is all that any Republican cares about.
MattF
@dmsilev: McConnell has two immediate dire problems named ‘Cruz’ and ‘Hawley’. As long as they are members in good standing of the Republican Senate caucus, there are several R Senators who will be looking elsewhere for political influence.
NotMax
@patrick II
“Boys will be boys. And we have determined it was a good American made rope.”
//
sdhays
@topclimber: I just don’t see anyone wanting to talk about this after Dump is gone, especially a year after he’s gone. Now isn’t optimal, and having the trial while Biden’s just gets started righting the ship sucks, but there’s really no optimal time. The whole point is providing a rapid rebuke against the failed coup attempt. You need to do it now, or just forget it.
Now, if Dump attempts to self-pardon, he should be charged and let the DoJ force the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of self-pardons. That will probably take a few years to litigate since I expect the Biden DoJ will not get the deluxe expedited service the Dump DoJ has.
rikyrah
This is the very definition of
“Rolling up on the wrong one.”???
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: I sometimes picture MaL as the tackiest Presidential library ever– after he dies– but then I think the real estates too valuable and the LACs will challenge the will to get it moved to Doral, which I gather is out by the airport between the SuperWalMart and the Airport Hampton Inn. And of course a bunch of ‘gators.
Ohio Mom
Felanius Kootea @59:
That’s what I think will happen. Nothing (except for some arrests of insurrectionists who got their photos plastered everywhere and so are easy pickings).
We’ll continue on in this state of suspended animation until Biden is sworn in — which will be narrowly preceded by Trump slinking away.
The reasons for this timeline is McConnell, who will not let impeachment progress, and Trump, who is too addled at this point to think straight and make a strategic decision.
Leto
@sdhays: and then bring the full weight of the DoJ down on his head, just like all the rest of these traitorous fucks. That’s the thing from the reporting; there’s suspected coordination from people in the GOP. Go full bore and expose it all. Leave no tweet unturned, no email unread. Every Parlor message, whatever that supposedly “secret” messaging app that everyone has broken (that Prince Jared continues to use)… all of it. Jesus I’m so tired of these fucks being handled with kids gloves. Hire back all the people we lost and give them a singular mission: expose it all. Use every tool. Use all of your legal acumen. Have at it.
germy
@sdhays:
At first I thought he did at at the nation’s capitol. The footage is from his state capitol.
Still needs to be locked up.
Joey Maloney
I remember John Judis from – good lord, forty years ago – when he was staff writer on In These Times, a Chicago left-wing weekly. He was a squish then, too.
…and now I see that In These Times is still around, having moved with the times as it were, to online.
Waldo
Politically, Pence gains nothing from pardoning Trump. He’s equally despised by both the Trumpies and the Never Trumpers — a pardon won’t change that. He didn’t spend 4 years debasing himself as Trump’s lackey for a one-week gig as POTUS. He’s finished. Best he can hope for now is to spin his belated rejection of the doomed fascist takeover into some sort of heroic stance for truth, justice and the American Way. A pardon would erase even that faint possibility.
Frank Wilhoit
@JanieM: If the Republican primaries were held today, Lin Wood would win in a walk. No then or former holder of any office will have a chance.
Leto
@rikyrah: glorious; that dude shouting, “JOE BIDEN BUILT THIS MOTHERFUCKING NEIGHBORHOOD!” Lololol; I’d buy all of them a beverage of choice :)
patrick II
@Suzanne:
From Pence’s point of view, if the president had already tried to have me killed or kidnapped it would be a cold day in hell before I pardoned him. I would root for impeachment and conviction and his loss of secret service while keeping mine and let the best man win.
Albatrossity
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: All of Twitler’s twitter ravings are here, in searchable format.
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
“You libtards don’t understand 88-dimension chess. This is all a cunning plan to be put under house arrest in order to skirt the seven days in residence agreement.”
//
Kattails
@topclimber: I did see that, just didn’t reply, but it’s in mental files. I might assume that Nancy has parsed that out. A few months of investigation could bring up a whole lot of shit strengthening the case. But I still suggest that they do their own end of it like yesterday; it strips him of the pardon power. All I can say is, everyone, call your representatives.
BUT how would a Pence pardon affect impeachment charges? Christ what a rat’s nest.
My new prayer: “God please make our enemies stupid, and unlucky.”
Frank Wilhoit
@dmsilev: There is a serious and important point buried, very deeply, behind all of the “impeachment is a trap/let it go/look forward” stuff. That point is that accountability cannot be incrementally restored.
Cermet
He’ll never resign – the GOP thugs cheered him at the RNC meeting yesterday! He still knows they ‘love’ him (those thugs will kiss anyone’s ass if it gets them power.)
zhena gogolia
@patrick II:
Sad but true.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Been waiting for this one.
sdhays
@Frank Wilhoit: I think there’s at best a 10% chance of conviction in the next week because a bunch of Senators shit their pants on Wednesday and they can still smell their own fear. I think there are lots of reasons for Republicans to want to just get rid of him, but your reason is definitely the overriding reason to keep him.
And you’re right, it’s almost certainly enough.
Leto
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: his library will be built next to Bin Laden’s grave. Only site that meets the requisite criteria.
JanieM
@rikyrah: That video is hilarious.
Danielx
@Geminid:
Come on, there should be at least some Regnery Publishing seconds.
Cermet
@Kattails: The constitution specificly says a pardon can’t be used against impeachment/conviction.
MagdaInBlack
@rikyrah: I love it
MattF
@patrick II: Pence was the primary target of the mob. They intended to lynch him. Yes, Pence is dumb-as-a-rock and has a record of subservience to Trump, but I’d think he’s figured out that Trump is not his BFF.
Ohio Mom
After January 20th, the DOJ will be very busy, there will be Congressional hearings and everything else. Lots will be brought to light — I just hope with at least slightly better results than Fitzmas and Mueller. The stakes just keep increasing.
topclimber
@sdhays: I see no reason to start this fight when our opponents want it, rather than when we choose. I also submit that there are several vulnerable GOP Senators who would rather their votes against conviction be two years away from public memory, rather than 6-12 months, especially when the evidence will most likely be much stronger then.
I guess we will just have to agree to disagree about this one.
Immanentize
Is SteveinWTF here? STEVE? I have something special just for you!
Even more relevant today!
Anoniminous
Republicans in the Senate will never vote to impeach. It would destroy their political career.
The Dangerman
I don’t think he resigns. I can see him declaring a National Emergency and Martial Law, however.
He only wants two things (Ok, 3, but Jared would likely object); President for life and Ivanka to be the first woman President.
ETA I here rumblings that there may be problems on the 17th. Presto National Emergency.
topclimber
@Kattails: I agree. File the articles NOW. I just don’t think they send them to the Senate on Mitch’s timetable.
What is the GOP complaint going to be? Oh, impeachment is so important that we wouldn’t call the Senate into session while our guy was still in office? Gotta hurry now, though, right when Biden is trying to fix all the crap we helped Trump deposit on America?
J R in WV
mistermix says:
This may have been true a few days ago, but Trump sent that mob into the seat of government specifically to get Pence and kill him. The gallows was set up to hang Pence for turning on Trump, after all, Pence was going to read the votes that elected Biden. The secret service saved Pence’s life Wednesday.
No way Pence pardons anyone now!
ETA: Perhaps Pence would sign a good looking pardon that didn’t actually cover any of the major treasonous crimes of the past week, just to encourage Trump to resign…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@The Dangerman:
Why the 17th? Last weekend before inauguration? MLK Weekend?
NotMax
@Cermet
Constitution solely cites impeachment as the rasion d’etre, is silent as to conviction. One of the only serrated teeth impeachment carries on its own.
Conviction or non-conviction in the Senate is not a determination of criminality in the usual sense, only a ruling on whether what they are passing judgment on rises to the level of removal from office, and does not expunge impeachment from the record.
Dmbeaster
I generally do not agree with this, but who knows. I do not think that Nancy Smash is maneuvering and manipulating to induce a resignation. That assumes that she believes that she has some power to predict and manipulate what Trump does, but she knows that is a fool’s errand. Her motivation is that she must do what she can to get rid of him while protecting the country in the short term. She has very few options. After Pence refused to even talk about the 25th alternative, she measured the desires of the Dems in the House and Senate concerning her only other tool, impeachment, and found broad support for it. Meanwhile she talking to the military about not following orders, and taking other precautions regarding doomsday scenarios. Its all that she can do with this shit show.
Second, Trump is too stupid to game out that list of risks and benefits, and he has surrounded himself with panicked yes men and bootlickers who are both too stupid and too cowardly to think any of that through and help Trump see it. Trump cannot see that far ahead, and he will not accept any advice that does not appeal to his narcissistic panic. I have no idea what he will do, but it will be strange and seemingly random. Currently, my suspicion is that he fails to see that he has done anything wrong and will not even listen to anyone who suggests that he has.
He will game impeachment as a Democratic abuse, and rally the troops to that standard GOP narrative. Expect the GOP to rally to that, and protect Trump until 1/20. Trump will find a way to weave the impeachment into his election fraud narrative. The GOP is looking for any lie to escape this pickle, and will embrace it.
Jinchi
Impeachment and conviction I presume.
Kattails
@Cermet: Balloon Juice: “Scholars-R-Us”.
Some time ago I kept hearing skritching, scuffling noises in the wall next to the couch. On and off for some time (not home a lot at night). Finally ended up cutting a hole in the sheetrock and found a mouse’s nest that must have gone up a couple of feet between the studs. Took out three plastic grocery bags full of assorted crap including a dead mouse.
That’s what this whole Trumpian mess feels like after four years of being trashed. Mice shit where they eat. Clean out the whole thing, fumigate, and seal up the holes.
PPCLI
Sorry if already posted. The Office of the Secretary of Defense is describing the terrorist riots as the
“The January 6 2021 First Amendment Protests”
https://twitter.com/navybook/status/1347908922292768771
BellyCat
@Gvg:
Nahhhh… Pence will do ANYTHING he is told to do.
patrick II
@cmorenc:
Everyone is looking for the logic in Trump’s attempt at sedition Tuesday. Hate, vidictiveness, and chaos were the drivers of his motivation. He was seen enjoying the assault and would have enjoyed it even more if the got Pence, Pelosi, Ilhan Omar, AOC were killed or held hostage. They were hunting for all of them.
If you listen to his speech, the tells his followers to “go wild”, while Giuliani says “trial by combat”. I was saying the other day how in the context of the phone call to the Georgia SOS how his skilled manner of speaking dances on the edgo of legality (for which I was thoroughly mocked). Trump will say at trial he meant “go wild” like a basketball crowd, loud and noisy, not combative. Giuliani is not as sophisticated and is screwed.
Anyhow, in what logic there is, no Pence, No Nancy, and the pro tempore (Grassley) was there too. After that the presidency passes to Pompeo. So chaos part happened, but not as much as he had hoped. After that, with no successor that was loyal to him, he thinks he can overthrow the election. It is not rational, it is a magical thinking, a dream of rage, hate, and getting even driven by the inevitability of jail when he leaves.
And that jail is the driver. It is the reason every tinpot Thief dictator desperately attempts to stay past his welcome no matter how crazy — he can’t leave, and neither can his co-conspirators, so they go along or it’s jail for all.
sdhays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, whatever it is, Dense could personally shut that down because he could invoke the 25th Amendment on the 16th and ride out the clock.
Not that I’m going to put any faith in Mike Dense lifting a finger to defend this country.
debbie
Nancy is maneuvering him out of the room. I don’t care how she gets him out, so long he gets out.
I had to chuckle at the second bullet point, though. At heart, Trump is a cheap-ass son of a bitch. He will never pony up for the platform he bellows he will create. I mean, really.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Respecting the will of the voters has always been a big institutional thing with the Senate and Trump tried to overturn that, plus Trump tried to murder them all. An impeached Trump isn’t coming back and out of their party. So the GOP senators have three good reasons.
Jinchi
That’s my take too. I don’t think there’s 11-dimensional chess going on. He’s dangerous as long as he’s in office and Pelosi wants him gone. The quickest way is if he quits. Next quickest is for Pence and the cabinet to remove him. Impeachment takes longer and relies on more people to accomplish, including lots of Republicans.
debbie
@sdhays:
It will be interesting to see whether Pence’s loyalty to Trump persists in light of his knowing that Trump expected his followers to capture and possibly execute him.
(Proofreading this made me realize how Shakespearean this all is.)
MagdaInBlack
@J R in WV: I think “Mother” is the backbone of that team, and I think Mother has had it with this shit. No pardon
Eta: someone mentioned that she and the daughter were sheltering with him. IF that is so, nope, no way a a pardon.
Suzanne
Who thinks Donald and Melania are going to stay married now?
Kattails
@topclimber: I would not drag out the findings too long; Americans have the attention span of gnats. Keep in mind that the first impeachment, Nancy only went for the one charge that she thought would be simplest to understand. I think that this time around you bring out the other ones that were skirted around the first time. Bullet point list with easy-peasy explanations of why this was bad. Violations of the emoluments clause. Hatch act. Bring in the Howitzers.
rikyrah
Phuck this traitorous trick ???
Leto
@PPCLI: Trumpov’s #5 pick to run the place, as “acting” dumb fuck, put that out. It’s future purpose as toilet paper is duly noted.
debbie
@rikyrah:
“Undignified, immature, and intemperate” pretty much summarizes the bratty guy tweeting that. Next-generational projection?
patrick II
@Suzanne:
It depends on whether she has her own bank account. Or if she trusts he will still have enough money to pay off the pre-nup afterwords various civil suits. Actually, it would have probably been smart to divorce him before all of the lawsuits hit when he leaves office.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Suzanne: I reeeeaaaalllly wanna see the pre-nup, the original and the 2017 revisions. I wonder if she’s taking him back to the table. If they file jointly, isn’t she on the hook for whatever NYAG James comes up with?
and along those lines, for the layers:
(President Nixon practiced law to pay the bills, you know)
So if he pardons Vanky for federal tax evasion, how would that pardon play in a state case?
snoey
@Jinchi: Whoever’s left that’s still sane can hold impeachment over him:
“If you do that Mitch will turn on you and you’re gone before sunrise.”
artem1s
Pelosi is doing her usual 11 dimensional chess here while most of the GOP idiots are completely focused on their own self interests
The always Trumpers have a couple of things to consider:
The Mittster, Liz Cheney, and NPRepublicans:
tax shelteredaccount in the Caymans still safe?There are other interests but I’m betting Nancy Smash is as interested in seeing justice done to more than just the useful idiot in the WH. There are state investigations and federal investigations that have to take place around the insurrection. None of those will happen if Donnie walks away with a pardon or resigns. His family and the rest of the co-conspirators will call for ‘healing the nation’ and it will be Nixon all over again.
And in the meantime, Pelosi knows how to distract Trump from doing more damage by getting him to turn his wrath on her and others around him. This has always been her Super Power. I think she’s primary interested in keeping him off balance, no matter what. I think she wants him to stay in office for several reasons and most importantly because she knows Dense can’t handle it even for a couple of days. Honestly. Pence already initiated a ‘soft’ 25th when he called out the National Guard. Now he has checked out and has refused to take calls from the Speaker and incoming Majority Leader of the Senate. Most of the Cabinet has resigned. And the VP has abdicated his responsibility for leading the nation thru this crisis. Where is the AG? Where is Homeland Security in all this? Why hasn’t either addressed the nation? The Executive Branch has all but abdicated at this point. Speaker Pelosi took it upon herself to have a conversation with the appropriate parties in national security and the military about the nuclear arsenal and let the rest of the world leaders know she had that conversation.
Nancy Smash is our acting President of the United States. And acting more like a President than any of the GOP Presidents have in my lifetime. May not be official. How about Madame Lord Protector of the Unites States of America.
MagdaInBlack
@patrick II: I have no doubt she has an ” escape fund.”
sdhays
@debbie: Every time I see Ted Cruz trying to be the biggest Dump-lover there ever was, I remember how awful Dump was to Cruz’s wife. And whatever outrage Cruz felt, if any, was completely overwhelmed by his own fascist ambition.
I think Dense is the same. If Dump’s support in the Republican Party had tanked like W’s had when he was on his way out, I could see Dense possibly finding the ability to make a move. But I think he’s just going to stay holed up in his residence and hope that he can hang on without having to do anything until Harris comes for his keys.
artem1s
@CarolDuhart2:
Clinton was impeached, but not removed from office by the Senate. He was however censured and there were specific penalties outlined in the censure. I think something like a small monetary fine and losing his license to practice law for a few years. I think the GOP’s main goal outside removing him was to keep him off the bench post Presidency.
Kattails
I will share this Stonekettle tweet telling us to buck up. I plan on following through with this. Gotta get some work done.
Nancy Pelosi knows her job and what can be done far far better than I ever will. I would guess that loyal members of the DC police and military will be seriously pissed at sedition. Trump’s blather has been muzzled. He showed his hand, as did the worst of the sycophants. I mean, Forbes FFS! Saying we better not see any lying shitweasel get hired by anyone trying to do business with us.
Let it play out and call your reps with praise, support, or condemnation. If one of mine had been in that room refusing masks, I would excoriate them.
topclimber
@rikyrah: It’s the Karl Rove playbook. Go after the opponent’s strength. Obviously Biden is the opposite of what everyone but the deplorables think. Their boy Hawley is going to fix that!
sdhays
@artem1s: This is an under appreciated point. Impeaching Dump focuses his attention like dangling keys in front of a baby.
artem1s
@debbie:
And Lin Manuel Miranda is furiously writing the libretto for his next musical.
The Thin Black Duke
Excellent analysis.
Suzanne
@sdhays:
How long until those two crazy kids get divorced, too?
#bebest
zhena gogolia
@Kattails:
Thank you.
zhena gogolia
@artem1s:
I hope so! I worry that’s he’s frittering away his talents on Disney stuff.
Kattails
@Kattails: Just looked at the comments to that tweet and someone else linked to this. I am now prepped for the day:
“There are more of us…”–Lando’s Fleet Arrives
.”it’s not a navy, sir, it’s just…people.”
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/
TruthOfAngels
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: A priori, I think a soft 25th may already be in effect. Although he’s banned from social media, he still has other avenues of communication open to him, such as the official White House communications channel, or standing outside the White House with a megaphone shouting ‘I wuz robbed!’
Given that Trump is an inveterate attention-seeker, I find it indicative that he’s fallen completely silent.
L85NJGT
The state of denial is strong, even on progressive blogs.
Trump didn’t gin this up out of some nutty fantasy to force an 1877 compromise, or kick it back to the states and run out the clock.
The action was intended to decapitate Congressional leadership. The assault wave were sacrificial lambs there to provoke a bloody, disproportionate response from the Capitol P.D. so Trump could declare martial law, and send over his Bureau of Prison (or Blackwater, or whatever that bunch was in Portland) goon-squads (likely dressed up as DC National Guard) to finish the job.
Too CT??? When Dick Cheney is waving his hands over his head in warning…..
Shamefully GOP pols are still playing pin the tail on the donkey over their 2024 prospects.
Mike J
Reading 18 U.S. Code § 3056 and it says the Secret Service will protect former presidents, nothing about that stopping if they were removed from office.
evodevo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Because Q is the 17th letter of the alphabet? That’s what I’ve heard…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@TruthOfAngels:
A lot of the amateur narcissist analysts on twitter (not to disparage them, just for context) say that’s his reaction to increasingly losing control and being exposed.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
I honestly could not say it better on my best day.
Suzanne
Man, I am such an ASSHOLE. I am just so fucking gleeful. I am enjoying this so much. OMG. #bebest
WaterGirl
@Frank Wilhoit:
Can you say more about what you mean by that. I mean, I understand the words, but I don’t get your point.
marklar
IANAL question.
If Romney, Murkowski, Collins, and Sasse say that they will caucus with the Democrats until the inauguration, would McConnell lose his position as Majority Leader, allowing Schumer to put the trial on the Senate Schedule the day after the House votes to impeach?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Suzanne: is there Melanie news? In the VF piece I linked to above, she mentions that the movers were emptying out Jarvanka’s DC house the other day
CarolDuhart2
@artem1s: Not that it would have mattered. The penalty was the best they could get. Clinton got his law license back by the way. Ex-Presidents don’t usually practice law anyway. Too confining and not enough money for a-post Presidential career. And even for judgeships, most administrations want some distance before even recommending an ex-President.
L85NJGT
Pence may have tried and failed at the 25th. It would explain Chao and DeVos fleeing for the exit.
L85NJGT
@rikyrah:
Hawley is the moron that gets left behind while everyone else bugs out.
Downpuppy
@BellyCat: Pence will do what Mother tells him. She nearly got killed, too.
Sasha
I could conceive of Pence pardoning Trump before Wednesday, but after the putsch shitshow? No way in hell he would choose to drink that poison.
Flea, RN
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
All of Trump’s tweets, archived and searchable.
cintibud
@mvr: Thank you!
RepubAnon
@Princess: Agreed – Trump will never resign. It’s a matter of trust – and lack thereof.
Trump trusts nobody, because he knows he himself can’t be trusted. Look at all the contractors Trump stiffed – and how he abandons supporters if they dare to oppose him in any way. Trump knows that he tried to let the mob kill Pence – so he thinks that Pence would laugh in Trump’s face as soon as Trump resigned.
No, Trump will hold on to the bitter end, thinking that the more painful he makes this, the more likely he’ll get what he wants.
RepubAnon
@Sasha: Pence might issue a pardon to Trump … but would Trump trust Pence to do so if Trump resigned? Probably not – Trump trusts nobody, because he knows that only a fool trusts Trump.
A Good Woman
Regarding impeachment, removal, and loss of perks; Google is our friend.
“The 1958 Former Presidents Act assures that no president leaves office without being set for life—it guarantees a pension, access to health insurance, office space and staff, and Secret Service protection for as long as he or she wants it. There is, however, one exception: These perks are only granted to presidents who aren’t removed from office in an impeachment trial.”
Presidential Perks after impeachment/conviction
TruthOfAngels
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Good. May it stay that way for all time.
Anonymous At Work
Pelosi’s end-game is a trial in Senate and a vote.
Ford’s pardon of Nixon cost Republicans major seats in down-ballot over the next two election cycles (74 and 76) and getting Murkowski, Johnson, Rubio, Young (Indiana), Grassley, etc. ON RECORD will be important. Not to mention the House (74 saw a +48 D gain, flipping a lot of moderate Republican seats to liberal Democrat seats that lasted beyond Reagan).
And a pointer on pardons. Pardons are offered; they aren’t valid until accepted, which is the equivalent of an admission of guilt. Those who, for whatever reason, have been offered but have not accepted a pardon, could be left out in the cold. Pushing impeachment fast and hard could prevent Trump from making odious pardons that Pence would not back up. If Pence won’t invoke 25th, he sure as shit believes that he has a “future” in politics and will try to preserve it.
I'll be Frank
I thought the guideline was think “What is the stupidest thing he can do?” and know it will be stupider than that.
and yes, I want no USSSS, no portrait, no library. He can have a Presidential Prison cell
Another Scott
@Van Buren: Hoping to be his VP? Or his anointed successor after Donnie has his big stroke??
Dunno.
Cheers,
Scott.
Frank Wilhoit
<a href=”#comment-8031944″>@WaterGirl</a>: Once people have been made unaccountable, they can’t be stood down: they will never accept being made accountable again. In the most literal sense of the word, they are spoiled.
Institutions are made of people. Accountability can be defined into institutions, but when the people who compose them are made unaccountable, the institution no longer works as defined.
Restoring accountability requires an overt break of institutional continuity, with all new people.
rikyrah
@CarolDuhart2:
They have stolen $600 million from the election funds.
Plus, the post-election ‘they have cheated me” scam to the tune of $250 million+
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: https://www.thetrumparchive.com/
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@BR: AFAIK, “Unanimous Consent” just means that if anyone there objects, then things don’t happen. It’s a courtesy thing, not a constitutional requirement. (And since the Senate doesn’t have proxy voting, it means that someone actually has to be on the floor of the Senate to object.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@JanieM:
We should start slipping them (metaphorical) weapons, e.g. opposition research.
Another Scott
Much leadery. Such patriot.
Grrr…
The enablers must face punishment or they will keep doing it.
Cheers,
Scott.
jimmiraybob
Why waste five years of assembling and grooming an insurrectionist army just to walk away. Time to double ….. triple …. quadruple down.
jimmiraybob
I understand that freely thinking for oneself, especially in matters of morality and ethics and adherence to one’s sworn duty, is difficult …//… but what about simply self-survival? Four more years of Trump 2024 doesn’t seem like a good idea for anyone. I assume that Trump will maintain the loyalist vote in the Senate but what about the Rs that are not absolutely insane? Where are my Justin Amashes!??
PST
@A Good Woman: I think perhaps we should want Trump to continue to receive Secret Service “protection.” Protection necessarily means surveillance and a degree of limitation on movement. I don’t mind spending a little money to be sure someone is always watching Trump, telling him when his motorcade can start and when his plane can take off.
moonbat
@Dmbeaster: This. Impeachment is in the short term about preserving the republic and getting us to a new administration.
In the longer term it is about reestablishing some democratic norms in this country. No, you can’t declare you won an election when you didn’t. No, you can’t declare there’s evidence of fraud when there isn’t. And for chrissakes, no, you can’t call your goon supporters to the nation’s capital to give you the “win” you think you deserve by taking out the legislative branch of government except for the complicit pols who wink and unlock the doors.
Trump’s not an above the law, special norm and law breaker and its about time he and his supporters know it.
lowtechcyclist
IMHO, today was the deadline for an impeachment that would have carried some weight.
Why? Because political Washington revolves to a large extent around the Sunday political talk shows. If impeachment had already happened, then tomorrow morning, Senate Republicans would be on the spot, and (a) that would set the tone for the week, and (b) if they didn’t reconvene to vote on conviction, they’d be asked next Sunday why they didn’t.
Next week, Mitch will have a lot more room to not reconvene the Senate before the Inauguration, and dump the Senate trial onto the Democrat-controlled Senate when they’ve got other priorities.
I think Trump should still be impeached and convicted in order to deny him any prospect of return to the Presidency, but if it’s going to mess with the Democrats’ opening weeks in power, then save it for just before their August recess or something.
mvr
@BR:
I don’t know the background well enough to say. Nothing I’ve read goes into the details well enough. But you’d expect there to be a way around it in a half sane system. Not sure whether ours is half sane.
WaterGirl
@I’ll be Frank:
Just a reminder that every single comment you post has to be manually approved because your name includes an apostrophe.
WaterGirl
@moonbat:
This. Every word.
We need to do this for ourselves as a country and for our standing in the world, which was on terribly rocky ground before Wednesday. But now, how far we have fallen. If there are no consequences, we have no chance of being let back into the fold of world leaders.
Sister Golden Bear
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Q is the 17th letter of the alphabet.
MisterForkbeard
@lowtechcyclist: Mitch always had that power. Sunday has nothing to do with it.
He closed the Senate on Wednewday evening/Monday morning. He won’t open it again until the 19th or 20th. That’s it – Demkcrats never had the ability to force him and McConnell isn’t going to allow the vote to happen.
Dems could have brought inleafhment today or yesterday and it wouldn’t have mattered. I’m not sure where you got the idea that McConnell is vulnerable to public pressure or media spotlight. He never has been.
Anonymous At Work
@jimmiraybob: Primaried by Club For Growth, mostly. Divided between “My district is liberal and no longer Republican-because-Lincoln-was-Republican”, same way that a lot of formerly Democratic districts are now Republican because voters got over Lincoln being a Yankee Republican.
LadySuzy
@Croaker: Apparently it’s 2/3 of the senators present. On his show last night (Friday), Lawrence O’Donnell had an expert on Impeachment questions. I don’t remember his name, sorry.
Martin
@LadySuzy: Lawrence Tribe. About as much of an authority as you’ll find.
Angela (@Toocananj)
I know its a dead thread, and I have not real all the comments, but Mother Jones states that the law was changed in 2013 and impeached and convicted Presidents continue to receive Secret Service protection. Is that right?
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/01/if-trump-is-impeached-and-convicted-hell-lose-his-post-presidency-perks/?fbclid=IwAR2YOY20tVbCYm4IqY1tN2SjJpG0B9aJCGS3ZnDQRKM0CX9xEJ6doz9cbYI
Martin
I want to return to how to think about this.
Trump is a malignant narcissist. The only thing that matters to him – THE ONLY THING – is countering that inner belief that he’s a loser. He needs a way out that he can call a victory. It may not look like a victory to any of us, it may not match with how a normal person would view things, but it’s how he works.
I don’t see any path that gives him a victory other than another insurrection attempt. It’s ludicrous to think that would lead to a victory but he’s got fantasies that 74 million americans will rise up and deliver the nation to him. I don’t think he’ll resign at this stage – maybe before Wed he could have done that and taken a victory in his twitter support and ability to bilk money out of them, but much of that is now in shambles.
I don’t know if Ivanka and Hope can stroke his ego enough to bring him around. I suspect not. He’s being boxed in. He’s got one more shot at a violent uprising that he believes may keep him in power. He could maybe exile outside of the US, but that only works if he believes that the US won’t seize his assets so this may depend on what his lawyers have warned him about, and whether he believes it. So I think the resignation window is closed because he can’t spin that into a win which he probably could have done on Tuesday – at least in his own mind.
Narcissists have two suicide behaviors. One is attention-seeking. It’s a threat with no intent of carrying out. This doesn’t really fit Trump. The other tend to come later in life, at a point of perceived narcissistic injury, and isn’t a threat. It comes when the person isn’t able to get the feedback their ego demands. This is where Trump is now. It’s not that MSNBC is criticizing him, it’s that Fox isn’t praising him. Twitter isn’t available as an outlet. His advisors have abandoned him and won’t support his needs. He’s trapped with no ability to declare bankruptcy and start over, as he could as a business man – it was an exit, a relief valve. He’s got nothing, and his narcissistic needs isn’t a minor one – it’s a massive one. And it’s not a want. I want to be praised, I want to be admired. It’s a need. He will burn the country down to get it because he literally can’t live without it.
4 years ago I predicted here that Trump would be carried out of the WH. With a week an a half to go, that prediction is unfortunately looking pretty good. He’s either going to need to be arrested and carried out, or he’s going to have a major health issue – a heart attack or massive panic attack, or he’s going to eat a bullet. Maybe his family can navigate him through this, but I think the box is going to close even tighter.
Vhh
WaterGirl
@Martin: That makes sense to me, except for this part:
I don’t see how he could do that when he’s too much of a coward to even fire people in person. I can totally see the out-of-control panic attack where a doctor gives him sometime to calm him down and they take him out to a hospital, or keep him sedated.
jimmiraybob
I’m just a schmo that likes a good beer, a good bourbon and an occasional fine single malt scotch (not necessarily on the same night) and think about one day playing in a R&R band. But I too have come to this conclusion.
Dmbeaster
@WaterGirl:
accountability cannot be incrementally restored is similar to the line that you cannot leap the Grand Canyon in two bounds. Whatever action you take on accountability, you must attack the entire problem.