Earlier today The Wall Street Journal reported that not only is Trump’s phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger at the center of the Fulton County District Attorney Fani T Willis’s investigation into whether Trump illegally interfered with the presidential election in Georgia, but so is his call with the chief investigator in Raffensperger’s office. It has also been previously reported that the Fulton County DA is investigating Senator Lindsey Graham’s phone call to Raffensperger; also for potentially illegally interfering with the presidential election in Georgia.
And everyone on the Interwebtubes rejoiced…
Your mellows, allow me to harsh them!
There is not a snow ball’s chance in Hell that Trump will be prosecuted in Fulton County, GA regardless of what the District Attorney’s investigation turns up. And there’s one reason for it: Governor Brian Kemp wants to have a slim chance to be reelected. And that slim chance depends on him surviving being primaried by someone more slavishly devoted to Trump than he is like the currently unemployed Doug Collins. Especially as Trump and Trump’s base, know doing business as the Republican Party, are pissed at Kemp from not intervening to actually illegally steal the election for Trump. So what is Brian Kemp to do? The only thing he will have the power to do: he’ll preemptively pardon Trump for any and all state crimes being investigated if it looks like DA Willis is going to bring an indictment. It is Kemp’s only chance of surviving a Republican primary for governor next year. I doubt he’ll pardon anyone else who might be indicted, so Graham and the other toadies may still be on the hook, but what little life is left in Kemp’s political career as a Republican rests on Trump not being tried, let alone convicted.
Your mellows, consider them harshed.
You’re welcome!
Updated at 9:15 PM EST As Part of Balloon Juice’s Quality Assurance/Quality Control Program of Accuracy and Accountability In Mellow Harshening:
Curses! Foiled again!!!!
Apparently, NEVER MIND!!!!
Way2Blue, in comments, has provided this important information I had not seen on this topic from The New York Times:
If Mr. Trump were to be convicted of a state crime in New York or Georgia, a federal pardon would not be applicable. In Georgia, Mr. Trump cannot look to Mr. Kemp for a state pardon, and not just because the two have a fractured relationship. In Georgia, pardons are granted only by the state board of pardons and paroles.
So no preemptive pardoning.
You all may resume your regularly scheduled mellows!
Open thread!
MP
We’ll have a pretty good idea of what Kemp is likely to do here based on whether or not he vetoes any of the Jim Crow bills working their way through the legislature, I think.
raven
bah, fuck it make him do it.
tom
My mellow has been duly harshed, but isn’t accepting a pardon a tacit admission of guilt?
Also, frist?
ETA: Nope, thrid
frosty
Can my mallows be marshed as well?
I think there’s enough shit rolling downhill in NY, I don’t need GA to keep my mellows OK.
UncleEbeneezer
Help us AG Garland…you’re our only hope.
Martin
I don’t think it’ll much matter. They’ll hand that evidence over to the USA. A lot of those state laws are also federal laws.
In either case I think it’ll come down to how much it pushes public opinion. It may become that they can’t just sweep it away.
raven
@UncleEbeneezer: Cohen met with the DA in NY again today. Keep up the fire.
UncleEbeneezer
That said, just got a J&J vax appt for Friday! Never been so excited to go to Dodger Stadium and for once, dealing with endlessly frustrating pee wees (tennis students) week in and week out finally pays off!!
A Ghost to Most
Living in Georgia at this point in time must be a helluva ride, with all the highs and lows occurring amidst the pandemic and crazy crackers. Will Georgia lead the south out of the past, or will it get sucked back in?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’ve been wondering about that. I’ve long thought the preferable way to go after trump was some kind of legislative investigation– The Whitehouse Committee, in my imagination. Or if McConnell stymies that, whatever kind of investigator– not prosecutor– Biden and Garland can come up with. I prefer making facts public to trusting the process of grand juries, courts and juries and appeals. If the facts are egregious enough, prosecutions can follow.
Even in NYS my question is: Do tax/insurance fraud prosecutions usually lead to jail time, or fines and bans from future business transactions or however that’s worded)?
No doubt in my mind trump deserves to go to jail, I am doubtful he will. I think the one thing Fred was able to drill into The Beast and he was able to beat into (figuratively) Ivanka and (probably literally) the Two Fredos was the instinct to not leave a paper trail.
Doc Sardonic
Ms. Willis could also slow roll this investigation till the primary is done.
Damien
I appreciate your effort, most mellow of mellow harshers. But I honestly don’t know if that could bring a shitstorm of El Niño proportions or it’s the only way Kemp survives, or both.
I feel like someone needs to just go big and bring a RICO case against the entire Republican Party. Fuck it, let’s see what happens then.
Doc Sardonic
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ask Al Capone about tax fraud and the weather at Alcatraz
ETA: Sorry Capone was federal, not state. NY would depend on how much a Manhattan judge despises Trump.
raven
@A Ghost to Most: We already did, today would not have happened without Warnoc and Ossoff. I also think this impending legislation will serve to light another fire under Georgia voters. If they pulled this shit right before an election I’d be more worried but we should be able to figure out how to GOTV no matter how much they fuck with it.
bluefish
Trump will never be brought to justice as the rest of us mugs would be. Unless destiny brings him a true Shakesperian ending, which the man doesn’t deserve. Then again, that would be the point.
Thanks again, Mr. S, and thanks for being there.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Doc Sardonic: point taken
westyny
@bluefish: Hard to think of a Shakespearean ending he doesn’t deserve . ..
Laura Too
Hey Adam, any thoughts on where I can look for right wing activity in Minneapolis for Chauvin trial? KKKroll (police union head) resigned in January which really makes me worried he is going to be a ring leader for some really nasty 3% action. The random gun fire (like 10-20 shots at a time in multiple locations) and 4 am explosions started this weekend and are continuing even during the week, so it feels like we are being preped for trouble. You had some really great insight last time on stochastic terrorism and it helped me get through it. Thanks!
A Ghost to Most
@UncleEbeneezer: I have an appointment for the Pfizer vaccine on Friday, I hope to get it done before the projected 2-4 foot snow dump.
raven
@Laura Too: You want to LOOK for right wing activity????
Minstrel Michael
Granted that everything Orange Dubious did within the compass of his term of office should be actionable, where he’s really vulnerable is in New York, where his wildly divergent property valuations will have him suspended by his ankles and shaken until all the loose change falls out of his hamberders. Everything else is a sideshow– entertaining, but not looking at jail time.
Geminid
On the other hand, Kemp has some leverage until he does pardon trump, so he may play hardball and hold off. The Fulton county prosecution will take a while to develop, and trump may be facing worse charges in other jurisdictions before too long.
Collins seems to want a shot at Warnock’s Senate seat. Kemp knows, though, that he will be primaried by someone no matter what. But by primary time next year, trump the 800 lb. gorrilla may be just a mangy monkey.
Laura Too
@raven: LOL, worded poorly. I would like to know where to look to see what they have planned. We did get tips ahead of time about them planting gas cans & incendiary devices near trash cans last time. It is better to have plans in place before they arrive.
raven
@Laura Too: Adam is your man!
Adam L Silverman
@raven: I fully expect Trump will!
More seriously, I think Willis should go full steam ahead. I just know the political reality is going to impact the quest for justice and accountability.
Jeffro
He’s going to pardon trumpov in order to have a hope of winning the primary…even though he’s already persona non grata with trumpov, who’d be more than happy to kneecap Kemp in the primary AND the general…in order to get destroyed by the Dem candidate for pardoning an obvious criminal?
GA Dems just managed to win two runoff elections for Senate, also too.
I think they let the investigation run its course (it won’t be the only one going on in trumpov-world, obvs) and let a grand jury then a jury decide.
Adam L Silverman
@frosty: No, but they can be toasted and served with warmed graham crackers and melted chocolate.
Adam L Silverman
@UncleEbeneezer: @Martin: I fully expect that if Kemp derails things in GA at the state level, everything will just be handed off to the US Attorney in Atlanta.
Adam L Silverman
@Doc Sardonic: She’d have to slow roll it past the 2022 general election.
raven
@Adam L Silverman: same as it ever was. . . .
Adam L Silverman
@bluefish: I think some form of justice and accountability will find him, I just don’t think, given the Republican politics and reality around Kemp’s seeking reelection, that it’ll be in Georgia.
trollhattan
@UncleEbeneezer:
Spoken like a true Giants fan. :-)
Great news, and there’s a lot to be said for one-and-done.
I found it enjoyable, in a weird “my first drivers license” way unlike most gummint interactions. Freedom–actual freedom.
Adam L Silverman
@Laura Too: Shoot me an email to ensure I don’t forget to reply. I need to let this percolate for a bit.
Laura Too
@raven: Yes! If it wasn’t for him and a lot of others here the first time around I would have gone crazy. I had lots of people up all night with me that kept me tethered to reality. Scary times indeed. I do feel better prepared this time, but of there are big plans it would be nice to know.
raven
“A source familiar with the Georgia secretary of state’s investigation confirmed officials are looking at two phone calls made by Trump to their office. One is the January phone call where Trump pushed Raffensperger to “find” votes to overturn the election results after his loss to Biden. The other involves the call Trump made on December 23 to Watson.
In a previous statement to CNN, on February 9, Trump’s senior adviser Jason Miller said there was nothing “improper or untoward” about the call between Trump and Raffensperger.
“If Mr. Raffensperger didn’t want to receive calls about the election, he shouldn’t have run for secretary of state,” Miller said in the statement.
Laura Too
@Adam L Silverman: Wonderful, I didn’t want to take advantage of you. :)
Cheryl from Maryland
I’m not certain Kemp can pardon Trump. Per the Georgia Justice website, pardon powers lie with a State Board (appointed by the Governor, so all GOP), but one can only apply after five years from being convicted for a felony. https://www.gjp.org/programs/criminal-records/faqs/faqs-pardons/
raven
@Laura Too: You live right in the neighborhood that was ground zero, right?
way2blue
Adam, I’d thought the Georgia governor was precluded from issuing pardons. So double-checked to find this mention in the New York Times »
“If Mr. Trump were to be convicted of a state crime in New York or Georgia, a federal pardon would not be applicable. In Georgia, Mr. Trump cannot look to Mr. Kemp for a state pardon, and not just because the two have a fractured relationship. In Georgia, pardons are granted only by the state board of pardons and paroles.”
from » https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/politics/trump-georgia-investigation.html
(I don’t know how to embed a link.) So maybe a little less harsh. Hopefully…
raven
@way2blue: Well that’s a horse of a different color!
Jackie
Which would be more politically damaging for Kemp? Pardoning Trump and ensuring every Democrat GOTV? Or being primaried? Kemp could survive the Primary, and a lot of Georgians don’t like Trump – as the GE proved.
raven
Hahahahaha, Trump wants Hershel to run for the senate seat! His campaign ads for Loeffler were a fucking joke.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: Don’t be judgmental!
Philbert
Where did Trump call from?, might he be liable there?
Ajabu
What ever Kemp does, he’s toast. Stacey Abrams is coming for him again. This time he can’t cheat himself into the governorship. We showed what we could do this time out with Ossoff and Warnock. We owe it to Stacey and will be there for her. 2020 was a “Yes we can” moment for Black Georgia.
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
And as John Dean just pointed out on Twitter (paraphrase) “you don’t go for seven interviews with a prosecutor unless they are building a case against those you have info on and that means indictments are close.”
raven
@Adam L Silverman: I was seeking clarity.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: Unfortunately.
HumboldtBlue
@way2blue:
Well that puts a different blush on things.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: That’s Jason “No chins and I’m four and a half years behind on paying any child support” Miller to you.
Adam L Silverman
@Laura Too: No worries.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl from Maryland: Fine, fine, mellow my harsh!
Adam L Silverman
@way2blue: You all are interfering with my shit stirring!
Thanks for the link, I will up date up top for accuracy and accountability in mellow harshening.
Mary G
I have never had any hopes for consequences in Georgia, because I can’t imagine a jury without Republicans on it who will follow the “I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and get away with it” rule. And after the APR passing and Merrick Garland being approved, it would take a lot to harsh my mellow.
NetheadJay
@raven: Saw a headline about that this morning and thought “whut”. Don’t know a whole lot about the dude, you think there’s any reality to the idea. And wouldn’t that be tactically stupid of Kemp, since Doug Collins strikes me as the sort of hater who would then switch right back primarying him for governor?
Adam L Silverman
@raven: Given the state of Hershel’s post-retirement from football knees, perhaps a moderately briskly paced campaign instead of running?
Adam L Silverman
@Philbert: The Oval Office.
dmsilev
Via LG&M, apparently T*** has been reduced to issuing Twitter posts in the form of press releases:
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
Laura Too
@raven: 2 1/2 blocks from Third precinct.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Given that they had the mRNA vaccines ready to go to trial by the end of last March, and we now know they were not just safe, but are highly effective, the five year’s crack is still wrong.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@dmsilev: His use of language is just painful
David Fud
The other problem with the theory (yes, I see the Kemp pardon aspect has been dealt with above) is that Kemp has been reportedly against some parts of the voter suppression legislation that scraped by in the state Senate in GA. I don’t think he is so aligned with Trump that he would pardon him even if he had the power. He has shown his independence from Trump several times, though admittedly directly being seen to let Trump be convicted by a jury of his peers might be a step too far even for his sometime-allies.
schrodingers_cat
A veteran of the Marine One squadron was charged in the Capitol insurrection.
raven
@NetheadJay: He’s fucking goofy
MisterForkbeard
@dmsilev: I can’t believe he’s still harping on “China Virus . The rest of it is a pack of lies too, but he can’t give up the casual racism and blaming other people for his giant fuckups.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: We’re at almost a dozen Marine vets charged at this point. And that may be an undercount on my part.
debbie
@dmsilev:
What I remember is the 20 million doses he “lost.”
raven
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t think so, the dude is an incredible physical specimen. He was on the Olympic Bobsled team in 92, well after his football career ended.
raven
@Adam L Silverman: Eat the apple and fuck the corps. And he never went anyfucking where. REMF motherfucker.
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: Of course. And also Pfizer didn’t have any US development money until much later in the process (their production ramp-up had some Federal money).
Jay
@Mary G:
saw a tweet today,….
”Major could bite my ass on 5th Ave and I would still vote for Joe Biden!”
dmsilev
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That’s how we can tell he wrote it himself.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s interesting given that, IIRC, about 30 veterans have been charged In toto and the marines are a tiny service.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev:
.
NetheadJay
@raven: Ookay, that is a whole lot. All knew was the topline resume of his football career. Somehow I don’t see that senate campaih happening
raven
@NetheadJay: His ad for Loeffler was idiotic. All that “Save America from Socialism” bullshit.
Jeffro
from the Department of You Can’t Possibly Make This Shit Up: the GQP Senate has re-introduced a bill to repeal the estate tax in its entirety.
Um…what can we say here, people? Bold move? Gutsy? If President Biden rejects it, isn’t he just showing his very un-bipartisan ways YET AGAIN?
Nah…let’s just say…thanks, GQP! We can’t count it as a Campaign 2022 in-kind donation, but whew, it’s close.
kindness
I’ve seen the Trump karma come back around and bite Republicans in the ass. I mean they covered for his ineptitude and corruption for 4 years through 2 impeachments, an insurrection and now Trump is doing everything he can to co-opt the party and take their money.
Republicans are at war with other ‘Republicans’. And they won’t openly fight Trump. All for the votes of the true believer base who is just a hair removed from a cult. They think they can get those votes. They really can’t understand Trump’s way is to burn it all to the ground and leave it all in bankruptcy.
I should be enjoying this but I’m not.
Jeffro
@dmsilev: would be nice if the snooze media could quit re-posting his very Twitter-esque “press releases” on Twitter (or anywhere). Suckers.
raven
@NetheadJay: He played for Trumps USFL team, The New Jersey Generals. Trump single handily destroyed the league but Herschel loves him guess why$$$$
HumboldtBlue
Herschel Walker for Senate?
Let’s ask Bishop Swan what he thinks. Oh Bishop Swan?
raven
@HumboldtBlue: And those are his good points but these cracker motherfuckers love his ass.
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
Of course they do, he’s their I’m-not-a-racist-I-love-Herschel-and-he’s-black card.
raven
@HumboldtBlue: And the dude could ball. . .
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
In college he could ball. His freshman season was one for the ages, and he was imprinted on my young just turning into teenager years brain and I watched A LOT OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
Penn St. v Georgia is seared on my memory especially considering Matt Suhey at the goal-line four times against ‘Bama in ’79.
Nittany Lions held him in check and won the title but Herschel amazed me that season. I watched a whole slew of old college games last year on You Tube, you name it, some of the great contests and Herschel was prominent.
And man, I miss Lindsey Nelson’s voice. He and Chris Schenkel were part of my Saturdays and Sundays (Lindsey did the awesome Notre Dame compressed replay on Sunday mornings and I’d watch before mass) and watching those old games brough on some serious waves of nostalgia.
Bill Arnold
@dmsilev:
This is encouraging, because it means that Mr. Former Guy is rapidly losing what remaining contact he had with consensus reality. (Such as it exists in the USA.)
I mean, there were vaccine projects in other countries that got through clinical trials around the same time as the US mRNA vaccines, and the first US vaccine had only a little help, basically regulatory process acceleration. The motivation was very strong and the competition vigorous in the world-wide vaccine-development community.
This means that nobody around Trump is providing any pushback at all.
?BillinGlendaleCA
I’m so happy to have my mellow back!
Benw
Gotta hand it to the former guy, simultaneously pissing off the AsG in NY and Georgia is an accomplishment!
mrmoshpotato
Open thread? Ok!
I don’t understand where the pirates part came from, but American horse pirates!
Via a message from a friend
mrmoshpotato
@Benw: Yup! Uniting parts of New England and the Deep South in “Fuck you, you loser!’
CaseyL
@mrmoshpotato: That is an excellent, if small, thread.
“Hiyo, Silver – Away, me hearties!”
mrmoshpotato
@dmsilev: Can we hang Dump 500,000+ times for murder?
CaseyL
I have just finished making reservations for a roadtrip through Maine this autumn. The state has just changed its travel policies, so all you now need is a vaccination card (which I have).
Mind you, a lot can happen between now and September, but I am so looking forward to traveling again!
SFAW
@Adam L Silverman:
Gee, you’re saying That Motherfucker was lying? Wait, I need to get my nitro pills before I arrest.
Noncarborundum
@westyny: Midsummer Night’s Dream:
“All is mended”? Never.
jonas
Only if you have a sense of shame. So, yeah, not gonna matter.
SFAW
@mrmoshpotato:
Hell, he wishes he were hung just once in his life.
sfinny
@CaseyL: I got my first shot today, and the second shot is March 31. So I can finally think about planning a vacation with family. As you say a lot can happen, but just the possibility is feeling great.
Amir Khalid
@Bill Arnold:
There’s no urgency to do that anymore. The Former Guy’s not in charge of anything important now. And the people around him these days are Mar-a-Lago staff who need to keep their jobs, not public servants obligated to protect the country from his whim.
mrmoshpotato
@CaseyL: “Howdy ho, y’all, shiver me timbers.”
mrmoshpotato
@SFAW: Ugh. Cooking dinner here!
Jay
@mrmoshpotato:
parley?
JaySinWA
@Amir Khalid: One bright spot in T’s press release is claiming it is “his vaccine” and it is beautiful. It might encourage a few of the GQP COVID-hoax anti-mask anti-vax folks to consider taking the vaccine. The fewer the anti-vaxxers the better.
SFAW
@mrmoshpotato:
I’ll try to provide a Trigger Warning next time, snowflake.
The Lodger
@SFAW: Even the clickbait story about the Roy Rogers Museum didn’t have a Trigger Warning.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: They seem to have been over represented. At least based on what I’ve seen reported so far.
cain
last post?
smike
@cain:
Almost.
burnspbesq
@Mary G:
The investigation is being conducted by the Fulton County DA’s office. I’ll take my chances with an Atlanta jury.
Chris Johnson
@JaySinWA: Yeah, that’s fair.
rikyrah
@debbie:
Uh huh ?
WaterGirl
@debbie: You know, there’s only one letter difference between
LOST
and
SOLD