Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

3 December 2023 – 20:18

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the Russian occupiers struck at Kherson once again. Brutal strikes. Straight at the city… Houses. Streets. Our hospitals. As of now, two people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends. All the wounded have been provided with the necessary assistance.

Altogether, on this day alone, and only in Kherson region, there were more than 20 Russian shelling occasions – similar to those in Kherson, purely terrorist in nature. In the city of Beryslav and in the villages of the region. I extend my gratitude to all the rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, to all the National Police personnel working to eliminate the consequences of the shelling. I am grateful to all the doctors and nurses who are providing assistance. I am grateful to the local authorities and volunteers who do not abandon their cities and communities to their fate.

Intense battles are ongoing in dozens of areas along the entire frontline. The most severe are the Maryinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas. However, it is also difficult in the south and in Kharkiv region.

And every city in Ukraine, where today was a relatively quiet day… Everyone who is now in the rear. Everyone who can afford to spend time at home. Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues. It’s not on social media, not in arguments over political matters, not in squabbling. This battle is where Ukrainians need support every day. Specific things that strengthen Ukraine. Things that add strength to our positions, to our state. Things that allow us to respond to the enemy’s attacks with our actions. Active actions. Bold actions.

I thank everyone who does not forget that the frontline requires support every day. I thank everyone who is working for the sake of unwavering, constant, real support. I thank everyone who understands how important it is for our people in the frontline areas and the temporarily occupied territories to feel that Ukraine remembers them. That Ukraine remembers and will not abandon them to the enemy’s destruction. I thank everyone who does not get discouraged and does not waste their precious energy on arguments. Those who work for the national interests. Those who heal and save lives. Those who educate children and genuinely care for their communities’ interests. Those who manufacture weapons and ammunition for our warriors. Those who organize volunteer fundraisers and, against all odds, provide assistance to specific units. I am grateful to everyone who trains our soldiers, both here in Ukraine and in partner countries. Each such training mission is a tangible contribution to the victory that will come. Inevitably. If you do not just believe in it, do not just expect victory from the warriors, but do everything in your power every day so that Ukraine becomes stronger and our collective capabilities increase.

We are already preparing for the next week, and we will definitely expand the capabilities of our state. In particular, our defense industry. We are preparing new military support packages from our partners. Strengthening our air defense, which is a constant priority, is also in progress.

We will definitely retaliate for the occupiers’ terror against our people. We always do.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s more on what the US’s, the EU’s, and NATO’s failure will mean:

An unpopular opinion, if Ukraine is not provided with means to expel russians from our territory, Ukraine will have to do something different, open borders, evacuate as much people as possible, dismiss the AFU and have govt in exhile as already happened to us 100 years ago.
1/3

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

with an army refreshed with Ukrainians and NATO weapons russia will already be in 0 km from Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. What do you think about such a perspective?

PS: I don’t mention Moldova because russian troops are already there.

3/3

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

Zelenskyy will resign at some point- that’s obvious he won’t be here forever. Yes, 10s of millions more refugees to EU.
Budanov won’t do that.
I am tired of all these illusions.
It will be a problem of NATO and EU, not Ukraine anymore. We are done. Figure it out for yourself.

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

Precisely. If the US + Europe together are incapable of holding off an army of convicts and pardoned cannibals, whilst having all the means to do so, then they deserve what's coming. Enjoy Netflix and Disney+ while you can. https://t.co/md9SccYsqP

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

The Ukrainians are willing to spend their blood and treasure, all they’re asking is for us to provide the necessary material and equipment. Material and equipment that is overwhelmingly made in the US or in the EU member states, which creates jobs and economic growth in the US and the EU member states. And we CANNOT even be bothered to do much despite doing so resulting in a major victory that would actually stabilize the global system, benefit our own economy, and cost pennies on the dollars.

For those keeping Advent calendars this season:

3rd Day of Ukrainian Advent Calendar

Today, we want to thank our British partners @DefenceHQ. The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression. And we are also grateful for one of the best modern tanks Challenger 2.

The… pic.twitter.com/GYaD1XTA4z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 3, 2023

3rd Day of Ukrainian Advent Calendar

Today, we want to thank our British partners @DefenceHQ. The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression. And we are also grateful for one of the best modern tanks Challenger 2.

The Challenger 2 became an effective weapon in professional hands of Ukrainian warriors. The spectacular combination of 🇬🇧 technology and 🇺🇦 talent helps lo liberate our land from occupiers.

More Weapons of Victory to came tomorrow. You can guess an option in comments.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

More on the blockade of military equipment being transshipped through Poland:

Most likely it's a part of the USA aid, but they will tell you that all humanitarian and military aid is not blocked 🤡 https://t.co/kJIZcmpUDU

— Paul Shapoval (@Frialum) December 2, 2023

Looks ridiculous how panicky they're trying to make the case and find at least a few proofs that Ukrainians harm the market. Like, so far – zero real evidence that it's a massive issue

— Paul Shapoval (@Frialum) December 2, 2023

From EuroIntegration: (machine translation)

Activist of the NGO “Europe without Barriers” Pavlo Kravchuk said that blockers on the Polish border detained the patrol boat SAFE Boats International, which is part of a program of assistance from the US government.

As “European Truth” writes, he reported this on Facebook.

He said blockers representing the anti-Ukrainian party “Confederation” said they had detained and sent a truck with a boat from SAFE Boats at the end of the queue, claiming it was a “yacht road”, designed as humanitarian aid.

Kravchuk said he received a comment from SAFE Boats stating that she had provided 27-foot patrol boats such as the “Cabin with the possibility of bypassing” (Walk Around Cabin) for Ukraine.

“It’s part of a US government assistance program. The vessels provided by SAFE Boats are intended for use as government patrol vessels and are not intended for use as private yachts, – quoted the company’s statement.

The activist noted that he could not claim for sure that under the cover of one of these boats.

“But I consider it very likely that this is the case, and the Confederacy not only causes insane damage to Ukraine’s economy and delays vital supplies indirectly, but also directly blocks military cargo”, – summed up Kravchuk.

Earlier it was reported that Ukrainian drivers of scales waiting for the crossing of the checkpoint “Krakowiec-Korchova” due to the blockade of Polish carriers, decided to suspend the hunger strike after negotiations.

The day before, representatives of the infrastructure authorities of Ukraine and Poland met in Warsaw, discussing measures to lift the blockade of Polish carriers at the border, and already agreed on several points.

It will be recalled that Polish truckers began protest On November 6, demanding that the EU, among other things, restore the licensing system for Ukrainian drivers entering the European Union.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported, that as of Friday morning, there are a total of about 2,100 trucks on the Ukrainian-Polish border in line to enter Ukraine.

Abomination is the least strong word to describe what happens now along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Historians of the future will be genuinely shocked to see how petty, delusional, and irresponsible their ancestors were in the darkest hour – and how…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 3, 2023

Abomination is the least strong word to describe what happens now along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Historians of the future will be genuinely shocked to see how petty, delusional, and irresponsible their ancestors were in the darkest hour – and how they brought grief upon themselves AGAIN and AGAIN by being stunningly blind.

Bakhmut:

The atmosphere of frontline positions in Donbas (Bakhmut direction)

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 3, 2023

Christmas trees know no boundaries. This was set up around Bakhmut

📷 Roman Docent pic.twitter.com/pEJzmLZxur

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 3, 2023

Avdiivka:

In reference to the murder of the two Ukrainian POWs by Russian militants the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said:

“Our fighters surrendered because they ran out of ammunition, but Russian b*stards shot unarmed soldiers.

Later, the… pic.twitter.com/NtYDDt98MG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

In reference to the murder of the two Ukrainian POWs by Russian militants the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said:

“Our fighters surrendered because they ran out of ammunition, but Russian b*stards shot unarmed soldiers.

Later, the positions of the Russians were covered and all were eliminated.”

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

 

Destroyed Russian equipment in Avdiivka, 2 Dec 2023.https://t.co/uOgJxKhBcB pic.twitter.com/BiJBdVC5a7

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

No matter what but the war continues. And RUAF are still trying to capture Avdiivka.

I don’t know what’s going on but sometimes I think that the West is afraid of our Victory.

Well, doesn’t matter. We will continue fighting till the end.

So Avdiivka thread. Part V🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/lQdzHOTt2W

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) December 3, 2023

List of huge losses from October continues.

This BMP was destroyed 22.10.23

Two more BMPs from 19.10.23

BTR-82A, T-72 tank and what, former BMP or APC?

More

More APCs, tanks from 19.10

BMPs and tanks

Left T-72, BTR-80 and destroyed BMP-2. Still everything from 19.10

This looks like Stalingrad movie from the late 90s

Leftovers of destroyed tanks and IFVs

4 new BTR-82A and one more MTLB

Extra image

All of that was from the north. So a little update from the south, Vodiane village👇

Two new T-72B3M tanks

New T-80BV and some kinda of panorama

BMP-1 and tanks. You don’t see tanks? Well, there were T-80 and T-64 I assume
Maybe @naalsio26 will correct me

@naalsio26 Destroyed MTLB, destroyed BMP, damaged and left T-72B and BTS-2/4.

Vodiane village, south of Avdiivka.

@naalsio26 If you if an opportunity and desire to support our unit fighting in Kherson direction you may support us via BMC:

freedomfighter is We create interesting videos ;DHello. My name is Dima. I’m Ukrainian. I serve in the Ukrainian army and have fought against Russian invaders since April 2022.The main goal of this page is to share my memories and thoughts about the…https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ukranianmarines

@naalsio26 I don’t about human losses but @WT3ll published two photos of destroyed enemy infantry there.

U may count. But the point is that we got used to the fact of huge Russian losses. But the point is that they gave a fuck.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds are hunting!

Krynky. Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" deleting Russian vehicles at night. 3 December, apparently.https://t.co/hU50samf7m pic.twitter.com/s4lCVNtHzL

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

First two documented losses of China provided Desertcrosses in Oleshki forest, Kherson region. https://t.co/eTzbPt2k89 https://t.co/lRZWsw89pn pic.twitter.com/2G0rR5IRqK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 3, 2023

Moscow:

A factory for specialized cars in Moscow is on fire. Around 1,000 square meters are already compromised and the fire is spreading.

Source: https://t.co/9TAPDsHLMo#Russia #Moscow pic.twitter.com/a985JbjpTw

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has posted a thread where he assesses Putin’s weaknesses. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Internal conflicts and betrayal among Putin's closest allies are finally exposing his weaknesses.

The change in Russia is inevitable: here's what the future might look like 🧵 1/11 pic.twitter.com/oqo14kjces

— Mikhail Khodorkovsky (@khodorkovsky_en) December 2, 2023

Putin’s war against Ukraine is a catalyst for his regime’s eventual fall. It’s a question of when, not if. This war has triggered forces that will lead to the regime’s collapse. The key challenge now is ensuring a democratic transition post-Putin. 2/11 

Peaceful protests alone can’t topple Putin’s regime. We face the hard truth: his removal won’t happen through elections or peaceful means. This necessitates a different approach for change. 3/11 

Prigozhin’s coup attempt was a turning point. Despite no sympathy for him, this event highlighted the regime’s vulnerabilities. It’s a crack in Putin’s armor that we must acknowledge and exploit. 4/11 

The assassination of Prigozhin and his circle signals deep military dissatisfaction and the regime’s fragility. These internal rifts within the power structure are our opportunities for change. 5/11 

Future regime splits are also inevitable. ‘National patriots’ like Prigozhin won’t bring democratization. We, as a democratic opposition, must be ready to dismantle autocracy and uphold democratic values. 6/11 

Overthrowing Putin is crucial, but the aftermath is vital. I am convinced, dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. We need a balanced, democratic future, not fragmentation. 7/11 

Replacing Putin with another ‘good tsar’ isn’t the answer either. Another strongman would continue corruption and repression. Our aim is a federal, democratic Russia, not centralized autocracy. 8/11 

I envision a Russia where power comes from its people and regions, not just Moscow. A federal parliamentary republic could offer inclusive governance, ensuring diverse voices are represented and heard. 9/11 

The exodus of Russia’s brightest is a loss but also a reservoir of potential leaders for a democratic future. We must harness this intellectual capital to build a free, progressive Russia. 10/11 

This is a shorter adaptation from my piece for @KoerberIP, read in full here: 11/11

Here’s Tendar’s take on Khordokovsky’s assessment:

I have read your thread and while I agree with many points you bring up, I disagree with your outlook of a post-imperial Russia where you see danger of the dissolution of Russia. Let me elaborate:

You say that the dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed… https://t.co/tAG8HzZh1i

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

I have read your thread and while I agree with many points you bring up, I disagree with your outlook of a post-imperial Russia where you see danger of the dissolution of Russia. Let me elaborate:

You say that the dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. From my perspective I currently see only an unstable and nuclear-armed Russia, which is frantically fighting to win another year to be an empire. That implies to neighbor-countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and even Belarus as well as the republics which are currently inside the so-called Russian Federation. Denying them self-determination is the continuation of the flawed and eventually untenable state of imperial grandism which brought us this very problem in the first place.

Putin is only the symptom of the decease. The problem is that this and all previous Russian states were by design empires and the peoples/minorities primarily cannon fodder for the expansionist aims of Moscow. We see it right now in Ukraine, where disproportionately minorities are sent to die for a lost cause while their lands are getting scarred by mining as well as oil and gas exploitation, without much wealth being left in the regions and instead being transferred to bank accounts all around the world. I can hardly believe that they will return to the status quo, especially knowing how little the word of Moscow can be trusted.

The dissolution or continuation of the Russian state will depend entirely on the peoples’ will. Each region and republic must have a referendum whether to stay or leave the Russian state. Everything else will bring us back to square one, with the results we have been witness over and over again. One might ask how Russia would survive without all its colonies which are currently stripped. The answer lies in the people which decide to stay inside Russia. It will be daunting task which will last generations, but unlike what Moscow is doing right now it might have a chance of success, if it is done in good faith.

Imperial Russia is dead. There is no going back. The earlier this is accepted, with all the consequences, the earlier you can rebuild a new world.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets, so we start with this adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Stay warm.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/OJnGETa6I9

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 3, 2023

And we finish with a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Та й таке! #песпатрон

♬ original sound – conorferguson69

Google translates the caption as:

And so! #песпатрон

While DeepL translates the caption as:

And that’s just it! #песпатрон

Open thread!

It is important that every week one can say, “I have contributed something of my own to the common defense” – address by the President of Ukraine

2 December 2023 – 21:01

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

First of all, I want to thank each and every one of our soldiers for this week, everyone who is in battle, on combat posts, who performs combat tasks.

To all those who help, train, and treat, those who provide the Ukrainian force with everything necessary. Also, of course, to our rescuers – the entire team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. To the employees of the National Police and the National Guard who have consistently helped our people after Russian shelling and weather-related incidents.

To everyone working in our Ukrainian defense industries. To everyone whose work is to assist Ukraine, take care of the interests of our state. To everyone defending Ukraine on the international stage. I thank you all for making this week bring results for our country, for achieving our goals.

It is significant that Russia has recently lost its influence in two international institutions. These are the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the International Maritime Organization – one of the key organizations globally responsible for security. Indeed, there is no place for terrorists there, and there will no longer be Russian representatives in the executive bodies. This is entirely fair.

I want to specifically acknowledge Germany – German assistance to our defense, to our actions. I am especially grateful for the precise implementation of agreements regarding air defense for Ukraine – strengthening our air shield. This is a lifesaver for thousands of Ukrainian lives – a truly strong outcome of our bilateral cooperation with Chancellor Scholz, with everyone in Germany who supports the protection of life and the rule of international law. There is also another defense package, including much-needed artillery rounds, 155mm. Thank you, Olaf!

It is also important that this week sanctions were imposed by the United States against Russian entities supporting the economy of aggression. This includes those who help violate the price cap for Russian oil and those working in Iranian structures for destabilization. This is extremely useful for advancing a just peace – for each week to bring sanction-related updates, adding effectiveness to sanctions.

And, of course, our personal gratitude goes to those who have shown exceptional bravery in the battles for Ukraine, for independence. Soldier Taras Davydiuk, a reconnaissance officer in the 130th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion. Thank you, Taras, for your courage and true leadership in combat! Soldier Oleksandr Koturbas, from our renowned 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Thank you for your resilience, precision, and the destruction of occupiers! Soldier Andriy Hryhoriev and Senior Soldier Vitaliy Krasovsky, both from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. They have repeatedly repelled enemy assaults, conducted evacuation of the wounded from the battlefield, and eliminated enemy infantry. These guys are fighting in Bradley vehicles. Thank you for your strength! Sergeant Mykola Shuhailo, from the 704th Radiological, Chemical, Biological Defense Regiment. Thank you for your bravery during storm repulsions, thank you for your will to fight!

And two more soldiers from the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade: Soldier Andriy Yatskovets and Junior Sergeant Oleksandr Hakov. Thank you, guys, for your determination in our Ukrainian assault actions!

Glory to all who contributes results to Ukraine, everyone who has found their place in the nationwide cause, everyone who helps and cares for Ukraine! Gratitude to all. Respect to all.

It is important that everyone remains committed to the common cause. It is important that every week one can say, “I have contributed something of my own to the common defense.” It is important that the actions, the concrete actions of millions of Ukrainians every day, every week, further strengthen the Ukrainian force. Together, we can overcome everything.

And please, do not forget to pay attention to air raid alerts, especially these days. Do not neglect it.

Glory to Ukraine!

With friends like these:

Essentially, three NATO and EU member countries are actively blocking a significant portion of our cargo at the border, with vital military and humanitarian aid.

What's next?

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) December 2, 2023

Poland, Hungary, Slovakia

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) December 2, 2023

For those of you keeping a calendar this Advent season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 2

Today, we want to express our gratitude to Polish partners at @MON_GOV_PL for their constant support and, in particular, for providing us with AHS Krab self-propelled howitzer.

Krab became one of the first 155mm artilleries in service with… pic.twitter.com/xU70Hm5ApP

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 2, 2023

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 2

Today, we want to express our gratitude to Polish partners at @MON_GOV_PL for their constant support and, in particular, for providing us with AHS Krab self-propelled howitzer.

Krab became one of the first 155mm artilleries in service with #UArmy. This howitzer also became a nightmare for occupiers in the skillful hands of the 🇺🇦 artillerymen.

Tomorrow we’ll present one more Weapon of Victory in our Advent Calendar. Stay tuned!

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

 

Was pleased to congratulate Martin Harris on his appointment as the UK Ambassador to Ukraine and to thank him for all the assistance provided by his country.

The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression.

Briefed the… pic.twitter.com/TsqWsidJyH

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) December 2, 2023

Was pleased to congratulate Martin Harris on his appointment as the UK Ambassador to Ukraine and to thank him for all the assistance provided by his country.

The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression.

Briefed the Ambassador about the priorities during my time as a minister.

All the reforms we are carrying out, particularly in the lethal and non-lethal procurement and defence production, are significant for our accession to NATO.

I proposed to have regular telephone conversations with UK Secretary of State for Defense Grant Shapps.
This would be an excellent opportunity to consult on all issues related to our cooperation with Great Britain and the North Atlantic Alliance.

We are grateful to our German friends for their unwavering support.

New package of military aid includes:
◾️2 border protection vehicles
◾️1 mobile antenna mast system
◾️25 laser range finders
◾️5 drone detection systems
◾️4 8×8 HX81 truck tractor trains
◾️4 semi-trailers
◾️8…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 2, 2023

We are grateful to our German friends for their unwavering support.

New package of military aid includes:
◾️2 border protection vehicles
◾️1 mobile antenna mast system
◾️25 laser range finders
◾️5 drone detection systems
◾️4 8×8 HX81 truck tractor trains
◾️4 semi-trailers
◾️8 Zetros trucks
◾️3 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
◾️3,840 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️250 tool kits with blasting material
◾️15 HLR 338 precision rifles
◾️60,000 rounds ammunition for rifles

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
Danke schön!
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Odesa:

That's not fireworks.
That's air defense working.

Such things happen when russia is your neighbor and it attacks you with Shaheds and missiles.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/0jQBa7PvS4

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 2, 2023

💥Прикордонники знищили 5 дронів-камікадзе на Півдні

Мобільні вогневі групи прикордонників в складі сил протиповітряної оборони результативно відпрацювали на відбиття ворожої атаки на Одещині: з 10 уражених Силами оборони дронів 5 – на рахунку прикордонників pic.twitter.com/FEWdTjpAX9

— Державна прикордонна служба України (@DPSU_ua) December 2, 2023

Mobile fire groups of the border guards as part of the air defense forces successfully worked to repel the enemy attack in Odesa: out of 10 drones hit by the Defense Forces, 5 were accounted for by the border guards

Avdiivka:

Many have already seen the drone video showing Russian militants murdering Ukrainian POWs near Avdiivka. We can only estimate the number of unreported and unseen cases, but it is certainly higher.

This kind of barbarism known as "Russkiy Mir" is a cancerous scourge just like…

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 2, 2023

Many have already seen the drone video showing Russian militants murdering Ukrainian POWs near Avdiivka. We can only estimate the number of unreported and unseen cases, but it is certainly higher.

This kind of barbarism known as “Russkiy Mir” is a cancerous scourge just like radical Islamism. Both movements are entirely incompatible with the civilized world and will land on the same trash heap of humanity like the other fascist variants.

#Ukraine #Avdiivka

From the reporting I’ve seen the Ukrainians had to surrender as they’d run out of ammunition after a prolonged firefight. I’ve seen the video, I won’t post it or link to it. I will state that both Ukrainian Soldiers came out of their fortification with their hands up. Both were lying face down on the ground with their hands behind their heads when the Russians murdered them. This is about as clear a war crime as there is.

Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:

Uneasy situation for occupiers in Krynky. Ukrainian FPVs are everywhere. Full control over the sky.https://t.co/fWxRMRafbm pic.twitter.com/TKbEb5XX18

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 2, 2023

Here’s the screen shoot of Dmitri’s translation:

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:

An update on that BUK that the Ukrainians blowed up real good the other day.

/3. Detonation of the Russian BUK, view from the ground. https://t.co/SA5ZX5HHUd pic.twitter.com/4doFk2pOMY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 2, 2023

Bakhmut:

Bakhmut under Russian occupation.
Population: likely close to 0. pic.twitter.com/j2RWuORkrr

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 2, 2023

Maryinka:

Мар'їнка💔
Російські окупанти нищать все, до чого дотягуються pic.twitter.com/PyZkI40E4l

— Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (@GeneralStaffUA) December 2, 2023

Maryinka 💔
The Russian occupiers are destroying everything they can reach

Russian blogger Roman Sapon'kov says that yesterday's news about the "capture of Mar'inka" by Russian forces was a complete farce made up by the new editorial team of the huge Mash Telegram channel.https://t.co/YYKjueWf79 pic.twitter.com/cYKcv5YBr4

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 2, 2023

Even the biggest Russian propagandist Sladkov is telling Russians to calm down about Mar'inka.https://t.co/RiGIUFxjOO pic.twitter.com/0mRzznoF9E

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 2, 2023

Kamchatka, Russia:

In Kamchatka, Russia, a car driven by a Russian military man crashed into a convoy of conscripts.
Six Russian conscripts were hospitalized as a result of this accident. – Russian media pic.twitter.com/imi4n3xZkS

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 2, 2023

In Putin’s Russia, military officials demobilize you!

More from Russia:

Putin does not care how much blood he spills or treasure he spends. It is the one advantage he has over the Ukrainians.

Remember videos of mobilised Russian men from last year boarding buses, getting hammered together, and freezing in cold empty fields? Remember how it was all starting?

Well, BBC and MediaZona estimate that at least 38,000 of them have already died in the past year. Thousands die… https://t.co/KaBmxrh7BN

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 2, 2023

Remember videos of mobilised Russian men from last year boarding buses, getting hammered together, and freezing in cold empty fields? Remember how it was all starting?

Well, BBC and MediaZona estimate that at least 38,000 of them have already died in the past year. Thousands die every week.

He seems nice…

The man awarded in this clip is called Mikhail Turkanov, aka Pitbull. A prominent Neo-Nazi and MMA fighter. https://t.co/0DPQaecy0Q pic.twitter.com/08OR6XqBT3

— Pjotr Sauer (@PjotrSauer) December 1, 2023

A final thought for the night that it would do well for those in the White House and Congress to heed:

The war will not end soon; it has long been a fact. The question now is whether our unity will crumble under enormous pressure from Russia and its agents of influence in the West, or whether every effort will be made to help Ukraine win. Putin isn’t just at war with Ukraine; he… pic.twitter.com/hojhF4ZLo5

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 2, 2023

The war will not end soon; it has long been a fact. The question now is whether our unity will crumble under enormous pressure from Russia and its agents of influence in the West, or whether every effort will be made to help Ukraine win. Putin isn’t just at war with Ukraine; he is also at war with NATO. And he won’t stop in Ukraine

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Give me please 5 more minutes to sleep, and I'll repair everything you need. #UAarmyCat

📸: 53rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/vN4cjImXE3

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 2, 2023

Open thread!

Listened to reports on ammunition and weapons supply; preparing requests for talks with partners – address by the President of Ukraine

1 December 2023 – 19:28

Wishing you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Summary for today.

Just chaired a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. Frontline commanders and the Commander-in-Chief reported on the situation at the front – all main directions. East – Kupyansk, Lyman, Maryinka, Avdiivka. Zaporizhzhia. South and, in particular, our actions in Kherson region. Grateful to all the soldiers on the front lines – in battles, at combat posts. Thanks to everyone helping defend our positions – building fortifications, mining the paths that occupiers try to use. Listened to reports on the supply of ammunition and weapons, we are preparing updated requests for communication with partners. A productive week of talks is ahead.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine presented a report on possible Russian actions and the international situation for the next year at the Staff meeting. We are analyzing all possible scenarios, and there must be our Ukrainian scenario for 2024. Specific operations with entirely specific justifications that will give Ukraine entirely specific results. Everything necessary for our state, our brigades, these specific results must be calculated precisely. This includes issues of mobilization. Everyone in Ukraine understands that changes are needed in this area. It’s not just about the number of those who can be mobilized. It’s about terms – for everyone currently in the military – for demobilization – and for those who will join the military. And it’s about conditions. These are comprehensive things that military leadership and the Ministry of Defense have to work out and present to the Staff for approval. Today, there were some proposals. I am waiting for integrated solutions.

Held several important meetings. Minister of Defense and his first deputy. Special, sensitive, non-public issues regarding the provision of our forces. And, a preparatory meeting before the next week. Ukraine’s participation in meaningful events, including international ones, is planned.

Today, we achieved a significant diplomatic outcome – Russia will no longer be part of the leadership of the International Maritime Organization. This is one of the largest and highly influential global institutions responsible for maritime safety. Obviously, the state-terrorist that turned the Black Sea into a battlefield cannot be among those influencing the activities of the International Maritime Organization. The entire week, we worked towards this decision – and it is a success. I am grateful to everyone who contributed to this.

Another thing.

Greeted the employees of the Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine on their professional day. It is crucial that Ukraine works with all partners in the most knowledgeable, careful, and professional manner to properly document and substantiate Russian crimes against our people, war crimes against our state, with evidence to restore justice. I am grateful to everyone performing this work: prosecutors, detectives, investigators, experts, and criminalists. Also, to everyone worldwide supporting the efforts of our state. The team of the International Criminal Court is busy working with Ukrainian specialists. The investigations into the abduction of children by Russians in the occupied territories of our state, deportations. When Russian officials and criminals receive lawful and just sentences, especially for deporting our children, this will be the defense of humanity on which normal life in the world depends. The Prosecutor General, the system of prosecutor’s offices in Ukraine, and law enforcement agencies are approaching the necessary just result. I thanked them for this today.

Glory to all who fight and work for the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to our strongest nation. A nation that is strongest when it believes in itself and knows its goals.

We will definitely achieve our goal.

Glory to Ukraine!

For those of you marking Advent this season:

Advent Calendar: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense edition.

Today, we want to say thank you to our colleagues at @DeptOfDefense for their unwavering support, especially for providing us with M142 HIMARS.

This weapon became a true legend on the battlefield. It sends flaming gifts… pic.twitter.com/Xh47QKCB4Z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 1, 2023

Advent Calendar: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense edition. Today, we want to say thank you to our colleagues at @DeptOfDefensefor their unwavering support, especially for providing us with M142 HIMARS.

This weapon became a true legend on the battlefield. It sends flaming gifts to occupiers on a daily basis and destroys russian equipment worth millions of dollars.

Stay tuned for more Weapons of Victory in our Advent Calendar.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

For those wondering, here are Russia’s most recent mobilization numbers:

❗️Putin increased army personnel by 170,000. Russian armed forces now stand at 2,209,130, including 1,320,000 military personnel.

That 170,000 figure mirrors Russia's invasion count in February 2022.

Russian MoD links the armed forces surge to 'growing threats from a special…

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 1, 2023

❗️Putin increased army personnel by 170,000. Russian armed forces now stand at 2,209,130, including 1,320,000 military personnel.

That 170,000 figure mirrors Russia’s invasion count in February 2022.

Russian MoD links the armed forces surge to ‘growing threats from a special military operation and NATO’s ongoing expansion.’

There are a lot more Russians, including the ethnic minorities and convicts that Putin is preferring to use, than there are Ukrainians. And unlike President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi, Putin DOES NOT care how much blood and treasure he spends to achieve his genocidal objectives.

This is what Putin’s indifference has bought him:

Russia occupies 17.84% of Ukrainian territory as of December 2nd, 2023 pic.twitter.com/tYKWVZbT1B

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) December 1, 2023

And the effect on Ukraine:

Ukraine latest: President Zelensky has pushed to “accelerate” the construction of military fortifications at key points along the frontline in the east of the country where Russian forces have stepped up attacks in recent weeks.@FT live news: https://t.co/EQjRGH8yPJ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 1, 2023

And Zelensky says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with a difficult winter ahead. https://t.co/JMHpgQOdQh

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 1, 2023

Here’s more from the AP’s interview of President Zelenskyy:

KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counteroffensive that failed to produce desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces.

Despite setbacks, however, he said Ukraine won’t give up.

“We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact,” Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview Thursday with The Associated Press in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine after a morale-boosting tour of the region. “Winter as a whole is a new phase of war.”

Asked if he was satisfied by the results of the counteroffensive, he gave a complex answer.

“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second (best) army in the world, I am satisfied,” he said, referring to the Russian military. But he added: “We are losing people, I’m not satisfied. We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied, but I also can’t complain too much.”

Zelenskyy also said he fears the Israel-Hamas war threatens to overshadow the conflict in Ukraine, as competing political agendas and limited resources put the flow of Western military aid to Kyiv at risk.

And those concerns are amplified by the tumult that inevitably arises during a U.S. election year and its potential implications for his country, which has seen the international community largely rally around it following Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion.

The highly anticipated counteroffensive, powered by tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid, including heavy weaponry, did not forge the expected breakthroughs. Now, some Ukrainian officials worry whether further assistance will be as generous.

At the same time, ammunition stockpiles are running low, threatening to bring Ukrainian battlefield operations to a standstill.

With winter set to cloak a wartime Ukraine once again, military leaders must contend with new but familiar challenges as the conflict grinds toward the end of its second full year: There are freezing temperatures and barren fields that leave soldiers exposed. And there’s the renewed threat of widespread Russian aerial assaults in cities that target energy infrastructure and civilians.

On Nov. 25, Moscow launched its most extensive drone attack of the war, with most of the 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones targeting Kyiv in a troubling precedent for the months ahead.

“That is why a winter war is difficult,” Zelenskyy said.

He gave a frank appraisal of the last summer’s counteroffensive.

“We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact,” he said.

Ukraine did not get all the weapons it needed from allies, he said, and limits in the size of his military force precluded a quick advance, he said.

“There is not enough power to achieve the desired results faster. But this does not mean that we should give up, that we have to surrender,” Zelenskyy said. “We are confident in our actions. We fight for what is ours.”

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, responding to Zelenskyy’s comments about military aid, said the U.S. provided “unprecedented” support.

“I certainly can’t dispute President Zelenskyy’s estimation that they haven’t achieved the success that they had hoped to achieve,” Kirby said. “But I can assure you that the United States has done everything we can.”

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration wants to give more but faces resistance from Republican representatives in Congress, Kirby said.

“And if we don’t get that support from Congress, the message it is going to send around the world about how much Ukraine matters and how much the United States and our leadership can deliver to our partners around the world is going to be loud and clear and deeply unfortunate,” Kirby said.

Zelenskyy said there were some positive takeaways from the last few months.

Ukraine managed to make incremental territorial gains against a better-armed and fortified enemy, Zelenskyy said.

In addition, the might of Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet has been diminished, following Ukrainian attacks that penetrated air defenses and struck its headquarters in occupied Crimea, Zelenskyy added.

And a temporary grain corridor established by Kyiv following Russia’s withdrawal from a wartime agreement to ensure the safe exports is still working.

Zelenskyy, though, isn’t dwelling on the past but is focused on the next stage — boosting domestic arms production.

A sizeable chunk of Ukraine’s budget is allocated for that, but current output is far from enough to turn the tide of war. Now, Zelenskyy is looking to Western allies, including the U.S., to offer favorable loans and contracts to meet that goal.

“This is the way out,” Zelenskyy said, adding that nothing terrifies Russia more than a militarily self-sufficient Ukraine.

When he last met with Biden, members of Congress and other top officials, he made one urgent appeal: Give Ukraine cheap loans and licenses to manufacture U.S. weaponry.

“Give us these opportunities, and we will build,” he said he told them. “Whatever effort and time it will take, we will do it, and we will do it very quickly.”

Zelenskyy remains concerned that upheaval in the Middle East, the most violent in decades, threatens to take global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

“We already can see the consequences of the international community shifting (attention) because of the tragedy in the Middle East,” he said. “Only the blind don’t recognize this.”

Ukrainians understand “that we also need to fight for attention for the full-scale war,” he said. “We must not allow people to forget about the war here.”

That change in focus could lead to less economic and military assistance for his country, he said. In an apparent attempt to assuage those fears, U.S. and European officials have continued to visit Kyiv since the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

The shift still concerns him, Zelenskyy said.

“You see, attention equals help. No attention will mean no help. We fight for every bit of attention,” he said. “Without attention, there may be weakness in (the U.S.) Congress.”

Turning to the upcoming U.S. presidential and congressional campaigns, where Biden faces skepticism over his staunch support for Kyiv, Zelenskyy acknowledged that “elections are always a shock, and it is completely understandable.”

There is much more at the link.

Also, Kirby is full of crap. The United States has most assuredly NOT DONE EVERYTHING WE CAN!

For instance:

Ukraine will need to wait until next year before it receives its first big shipment of GLSDB.

Delivery to the U.S. by Boeing will take place in late December – followed by several months of testing before onward shipment to Ukraine. – Reuters https://t.co/CgRyQ3ll3U pic.twitter.com/QFk323tVxw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 1, 2023

Kyiv:

Mobile air defence groups operating in the Kyiv area. Video from Lieutenant General and the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Naiev.https://t.co/vzlIgLx49O pic.twitter.com/gsMnAydJbq

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 1, 2023

Mariupol December 2021 versus December 2023:

Mariupol is Ukraine and Russia is a terrorist state. pic.twitter.com/Gwr2sWuFWG

— UNITED24media (@United24media) December 1, 2023

Avdiivka:

Avdiivka today.
The Russian World is coming in full swing. https://t.co/fneByJ4GaP

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 1, 2023

https://t.co/0sDRdEOzZw

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 1, 2023

Tatarigami has published an interview with a Ukrainian who has been volunteering in Avdiivka. Here’s the link to the full interview at his Frontline Intelligence site, which includes a lot more pictures than those he can fit into the tweet.

I am thrilled to present an incredible interview featuring Yana (@jana_skhidna), a 28-year-old Ukrainian volunteer who has recently returned from Avdiivka. It’s a highly illustrative story showcasing how people, specifically young Ukrainian women, continue to support Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/gwWCNikytf

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) December 1, 2023

Here’s the rest of the text from the tweet:

I am thrilled to present an incredible interview featuring Yana (@jana_skhidna), a 28-year-old Ukrainian volunteer who has recently returned from Avdiivka. It’s a highly illustrative story showcasing how people, specifically young Ukrainian women, continue to support Ukrainian troops on the most dangerous frontlines. If you’re curious about what’s happening in Avdiivka and wish to hear a firsthand account from a location typically closed off to journalists and the general public, look no further. We found her answers insightful, so don’t miss out!

(Due to limitations on the number of images in a single post, you can explore the complete article on our project’s website. The link is available in my bio, offering more images shared by Yana.)

1. Hello! Could you please provide a brief introduction and tell us more about yourself?

Y (Yana): My name is Yana, and I am 28 years old. Before the full-scale invasion, I worked in the construction industry as a manager of construction projects. I dedicated a lot of time to learning English and took additional courses in ArchiCAD and LIRA-SAPR. A significant part of my free time and, in general, my life, was devoted to studying and improving my knowledge in the field of design. However, after February 24, everything changed. All construction projects that were planned for 2022-23 were canceled and frozen. Currently, I am busy in the field related to my economics education.

2. How and when did the war start for you?

Y: The war began for me in 2014. It was a very challenging period during which I experienced depression. I constantly felt unwell both physically and morally. Of course, this affected the learning process, at times impacting my performance, interaction, and communication with people. I worked with a psychologist. It was a huge blow for me to realize that, 1000 km away from where I was living, studying, and currently residing, the most terrible thing was happening – war. It was surreal for me that while I was performing mundane actions, someone was dying, someone was getting injured, homes were destroyed. It was shocking to see that despite these events, people could calmly attend classes, go to work, cafes, and clubs.

A part of what I loved was forever lost in 2014. It tore me apart to think that while I was attending an accounting class, there were ongoing military actions in the Donbas region. It was also challenging because many people said, “They themselves called for the Russian world,” “They wanted Putin,” “It’s because of them that there’s a war.” These were people who never knew the history of Eastern Ukraine and never understood it.

3. When and why did you decide to become a volunteer? (In Ukraine, the term “volunteer” refers to individuals engaged in providing military and humanitarian aid to both military personnel and civilians. These volunteers contribute by fundraising, purchasing, and delivering essential goods to military units and civilians on the frontlines.)

Y: It seems that, like many others, it all started for me with weaving camouflage nets. Yes, there were requests for them, and we were told how important it was and how it helps our defenders. It was enough for me as a second-year student at that time. But, as I shared earlier, I found these events deeply painful, and I wanted to do more. I spent my entire scholarship on supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). It wasn’t about large-scale fundraising; I didn’t inquire about who was buying what and why. We had local volunteers and civic organizations in Chernivtsi (which are still active), and I financially supported them. It was important to me. At that time, intense battles were taking place in Donetsk Airport (DAP), Debaltseve, Ilovaisk, and so on. It was heart-wrenching, and I felt the need to be somehow involved in providing assistance.

Later, my mother and I started preparing homemade treats, and I delivered them to the military hospitals in our city. Every Tuesday, I would enter a random ward to visit the soldiers. There was a period when I consistently donated and supported the army without hesitation. Again, my mother always assisted me—whether it was making Easter bread for the soldiers or baking Christmas cookies to send to the front lines.

When the full-scale invasion began, on February 25th, my father and I filled our car with essential items and headed to the Territorial Defense headquarters in our city. We collected items for units that were being prepared and sent to the East. We were also helping civilians – by evacuating people from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv oblast, and evacuating animals, transferring them to Europe. Only when I completed my second higher education in May 2022 did we start going on humanitarian missions directly to the frontlines.

4. What is the essence of volunteering and who are volunteers?

Y: The essence of volunteering is perhaps in selfless work, in ongoing activities aimed not at gaining profit or any other additional benefits. Volunteering is, above all, the opportunity to influence environment, to initiate one’s own projects, and to change the country. When people become volunteers, they not only get a chance to express themselves, get new knowledge and skills, but also strive to make the lives of others better.

I believe that each person who calls themselves a “volunteer” has their own motives that prompted them to engage in this activity. For me, it is primarily patriotism and the fact that my country is at war. Parts of our land are immersed in pain, suffering, and blood. And then, it is about fulfilling the needs of the less fortunate, gaining new experience in working with people, organizing, and conducting various social projects.

Currently, the activities of the majority of volunteers and volunteer organizations in Ukraine are focused on helping the military, supporting refugees, and assisting people affected by the war. Because this is our own, our homeland, and I simply cannot comprehend or accept how one can be indifferent to this movement in such challenging times.

5. You’ve been to many cities and villages that were destroyed by Russian forces. What impressed you the most during your volunteer trips?

Y: Oh, here one could talk for days and nights because for almost 2 years of trips to the front and near-front cities and villages, there were many different situations and moments when I could cry and scream from pain and despair, when we laughed, probably hysterical laughter, when we said goodbye to life dozens of times and rejoiced because an important evacuation had succeeded, and when we scolded ourselves for arriving late.

I approach each of our trips calmly. For me, it’s like going to work, with one important nuance. I perceive it as work because I go to various locations to work with civilians and the military, to help them.

This time, I’ll share just one incident from our recent trip. We were working specifically along the Mariinka direction, and we entered the village of Maksymilianivka, just 5 km from Mariinka, or more precisely, the stones and ruins left of it. Before the war, 3000 people lived there; now, there are probably around 100. Maybe more, maybe less – it’s hard to count accurately because it’s constantly under shelling, and people hide in their homes, rarely coming out. In Maksymilianivka, they don’t allow entry without an escort; everyone is checked at the checkpoint. And it was the last day of our trip: we traveled to Avdiivka and its surroundings, Bakhmut direction, Vuhledar direction – everywhere destruction, grief, no communication, and here we enter a house in Maksymilianivka, and there’s light. It so impressed me, and I said to my colleague, “Wow, there’s light here, it’s a real miracle!”

In the midst of terrible devastation in the village, constant shelling, lack of communication, and internet just 5 km from the front line, we saw light in a house. The thing is, electricians stay there, and despite the constant threat of artillery, MLRS shelling, and Orlan drones, these people work until the last moment and provide light to the people who stay in the village. Our people will probably never cease to amaze me.

6. Let’s talk about the painful – Avdiivka. Tell me about your personal impressions from the recent visits.

Y: Avdiivka is my personal pain and a wound that has probably been with me all my life. Working and helping in Avdiivka – I mean both the military and civilians – is like living another life. Perhaps, after the war, I will write a book about it because so much has been experienced there. A lot of things that I cannot always talk about, and things that need to be told and shown to those who come after us, so that these things and stories are not forgotten.

I remember Avdiivka differently, in every season, and, of course, it hurts every time… as if for the first time when, instead of a city, I see piles of rubble and construction debris, and on the way to the city, instead of the outlines of a giant industry, I see clouds of black-black smoke from the next shelling…

I’m not saying it for the last time because I know that we will still work in the Avdiivka direction – and the last time I was there on my birthday.

On November 18, we woke up at 4 in the morning to load humanitarian aid for civilians and equipment for the military, so that by 6:00, a maximum at 6:30 AM, we would already be in the city. Avdiivka now is 22 km of a constantly shelled road. There are sections where enemy UAVs are actively working, so, as we say, we need to “skip” quickly. We entered without headlights, quickly, with open windows in the car to hear enemy UAVs.

The landscape in Avdiivka changes every night. Dozens of air strikes per day turn the city into complete ruins. There are fewer and fewer places for shelter, constant “KABs” (Guided Aerial Bombs), the scariest thing imaginable, when a building collapses like a house of cards before your eyes – I’ve seen that only in apocalyptic movies.

If you work with civilians: humanitarian aid and evacuation – everything needs to be done in the morning and very quickly. After the morning, the Russians fly with Orlans (recon UAV); they observe, and determine where there are groups of people (3 or more), from which building smoke is coming from a home stove, and KABs target it. Just damned scum waging war on absolutely unarmed and defenseless people.

It’s very hard for me when through the window of a burned, black building with broken windows, I see remnants of life – a small intact chandelier that will never shine again, winter clothes on the shelves that no one will ever wear, and neatly arranged books.

But every damn time we enter this city, and at the entrance, Ukrainian flags greet us, it adds strength and motivation to move forward. I want everyone, both here and around the world, to realize the price we pay to see these blue-yellow flags in Avdiivka, and what irreparable losses we suffer. When I see our tired, exhausted soldiers who clearly say, “It’s hard, but we’re fighting,” I understand that we have no right to get tired and stop. I’m ready to sacrifice my health, but I will be sure that I did everything to protect and help the bravest people in our country and our city, Avdiivka.

7. In your opinion, why is Avdiivka so important for the Russians?

Y: Avdiivka, like a bone in the throat of our enemies, has remained an impregnable fortress. Unfortunately, this fortress is now forced to defend itself. As they say now, “capturing Avdiivka is purely a political goal” for these damn Russians and Putin in particular. They need victories. But a victory over what? Over peaceful people who have been deprived of their homes or because they destroyed the entire city?!

Avdiivka is the gateway to Donetsk. From there, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to control the presence of the enemy in the oblast center, even by preventing them from moving certain vehicles and ammunition around the city. So, of course, they want to push the front line away from Donetsk. Another point, Avdiivka is probably the only defensive area that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not lost from 2014 to 2022. That is, during the time when there were large and difficult battles for Soledar, Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, etc., their advances in Avdiivka were insignificant. Only the surrounding settlements from Avdiivka were lost to the Russians, and that was very long and very difficult for them. And another logistical component. I believe and will always believe that Avdiivka is a symbol of resistance. Probably even the Russians understand this, and that’s why they are pushing so hard in this direction. You have to look at the map and understand that Avdiivka is precisely that outpost that, from 2015 to the present, has practically not moved forward or backward. It’s a strong defensive zone that has been fortified.

8. Do you agree with the opinion that when the Russians cannot quickly surround a city, they systematically destroy it?

Y: Yes, I often think about it… Bakhmut, Popasna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Svatove, Kremenna, Mariinka, Vuhledar, Mariupol, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Siversk, Soledar, and so on… and these are just the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk that Russia has destroyed, erased below the foundations. Once peaceful, flourishing, industrial or not, these cities may never be rebuilt. And how many villages? It’s impossible to count. Millions of destroyed homes and millions of shattered human lives.

And when they write in their damn publics about the “liberation” of Donbas, I am disgusted with this phrase. Because it is total destruction. In some points of Avdiivka, the destruction is so catastrophic, but it is still being bombed, that I can no longer remember what this city looked like before. Avdiivka is a city where no building is suitable for even a major reconstruction. Also, a key location in Avdiivka was the AKHZ – once the largest coke-chemical plant in Europe, and a city formed around it. If the plant cannot be restored, there will be no more Avdiivka. All the industry of Avdiivka is destroyed, ruined, and brought to a state where it simply can never function again. Probably, this is what they seek – to destroy even the industrial potential of this region so that after the war, it will be simply unusable. These are absolute degenerates, despicable degenerates with nothing sacred, who just, for the sake of entertainment or idiocy induced by imperialist propaganda, destroy everything: schools, hospitals, kindergartens, abandoned warehouse buildings, residential and non-residential buildings.

When there is no success on the battlefield, they show their vile power through terror against civilians and through the total destruction of the city. Take, for example, Popasna – they just destroyed the city and announced that they would not rebuild it, and now they are using it as a military base.

9. I know that many Ukrainians trust you and constantly try to help. Do you feel foreign aid from ordinary citizens or organizations?

Y: Yes, as strange as it may sound, during this terrible war, there are pleasant moments, such as meeting incredible and strong people or receiving feedback from people. Trust from the community is the best thing anyone can receive. And of course, I am very pleased to receive trust and support from my fellow citizens and from foreigners. Getting help and support from the civilized world is very valuable to us. I always mention and sincerely thank Ukrainians abroad and foreigners in general for supporting the Avdiivka front. Sometimes people, when they see where we are going, how and where we work, say, “I want to help the defenders of Avdiivka!” I repeat, this is very important to me. It is important that the world sees the crimes that the Russians are committing in the once-small industrial city of Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is currently closed to journalists, so it is important to show how the city lives and fights, that there are still civilians here, and that the Russians are committing genocide against them. I am very grateful to everyone who supports our fundraisers for the defenders of Avdiivka, and to those who simply support me with warm words and wishes for success, because now it is more dangerous in Avdiivka than ever.

10. How can one help the defenders of Avdiivka? Are there any urgent needs that need to be addressed?

Y: Today, once again, I spoke with servicemen from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who have been firmly defending this direction since March 2022. The primary need is for combat equipment! There is also a shortage of personnel. Additionally, there is a constant need for drones: daytime, nighttime, strike, and FPV drones for installing surveillance cameras on various objects. Maximum unity and concentration of efforts are required. We must show that we are a reliable and worthy support for our defenders on the front lines.

11. After the war, what would you like to do?

Y: Certainly, I would like to return to my former job in the construction industry. I hope to resume working in the field of design. However, it is very difficult to imagine what life will be like after the war. In any case, I can never go back to my previous life. Our work will continue in one way or another, with a lot of tasks in the de-occupied territories, working with civilians, and humanitarian missions. But yes, along with that, I would still like to engage in design.

12. What places would you recommend for foreigners to visit in Ukraine?

Y: Currently, this is a very difficult and painful question for me because dozens of places I would recommend to visit to immerse oneself in the culture, better understand the locality, and experience the uniqueness of the region are unfortunately either destroyed, no longer exist, or are in temporary occupation.

Of course, I would like to recommend visiting Donetsk – as we used to call it, the “City of a Million Roses.” Or Soledar, there was something to be surprised about in Soledar: remnants of the ancient Permian Sea, industrial objects, steppe landscapes, vast lakes, and even “Martian landscapes.” And, of course, the salt mines. There, the descent is almost 300 meters deep, where there used to be a salt mining museum, a salt football field, a naturally occurring salt crystal the size of a human, sculptures created by local craftsmen, and a special hall for symphonic concerts. I also really liked the Avdiivka quarry, or as the locals called it, the “Maldives of Avdiivka.” They used to extract quartz sand there. The former industrial zone eventually turned into a local landmark. It had clean and cool water. But many, many other places were destroyed and ruined by the Russians.

So, I would recommend visiting the Carpathian Mountains. Take a walk through the wooded hills and blooming meadows, and definitely climb the highest mountain – Hoverla.

If you wish to provide direct assistance to the defenders of Avdiivka, kindly visit Yana’s account:

підари мають успіх пд Новокалинового, безперервні штурми на Степовому, пд очисних (АКХЗ) мали частковий успіх, на промці😔

вони лізуть з усіх щілин, використовують важкі бомби

НАШИМ потрібен бк і надійний тил🙏🏼 тому більше дронів = менше кацапів

(рр – [email protected]) pic.twitter.com/kmC5ygdo1y

— ⚒️ пані ДƟбропі́лля 2.0 (@jana_skhidna) November 27, 2023

I kindly ask you to like and share this post as it is of utmost importance.

Kherson Oblast:

Interception of Shaheed kamikaze drones tonight over Kherson region. https://t.co/GxcOJbNaHC pic.twitter.com/yCzU9kLN0f

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 1, 2023

Nova Maiachka, Kherson Oblast:

Strike on administration building in Nova Maiachka, Kherson region.
(46.5993972, 33.2242458)
P.S: Russian military trucks hiding behind the building are visible on the photos.

It is also reported that recently the number of Russians in Nova Maiachka and Chaplynka area of the… pic.twitter.com/8JpBZNgeJT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 1, 2023

Strike on administration building in Nova Maiachka, Kherson region.
(46.5993972, 33.2242458)
P.S: Russian military trucks hiding behind the building are visible on the photos.

It is also reported that recently the number of Russians in Nova Maiachka and Chaplynka area of the Kherson region has increased significantly.

Zalizhnyi Port, Kherson Oblast:

Personal videos of a Russian soldier recording the looting of Ukrainian houses in the Zaliznyi Port, Kherson region.
Russian was identified: Sergey Eltsov from Murmansk born in 1990.https://t.co/4CXJTturTFhttps://t.co/M3ONTIQhi9 pic.twitter.com/VQU7K5dbC1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 1, 2023

Hopefully someone will terminate this scumbag with extremely prejudice.

The Republic of Buryatia, Russia:

/2. Location of the Severomuyskiy tunnel in Buryatia. 4750km from Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Rc8erxjHG4

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 1, 2023

Yesterday, Russian media began reporting that a train carrying fuel caught fire while moving in the Severomuysky tunnel in Buryatia.

In the evening of the same day, Russian media again reported that a train caught fire in the Severomuysky tunnel. The train caught fire on the bypass track and also carried fuel.

And this morning, Russian media reported that it was a sabotage:

“On November 30, unknown persons blew up a freight train in the North Sea tunnel consisting of 50 cars (41 tanks with diesel fuel and 3 tanks with aviation fuel). According to the locomotive crew, during the passage of the tunnel the tension was relieved and the train slowed down. While the members of the brigade were figuring out what was going on, heavy smoke began to appear in the tunnel – the brigade left the tunnel.

As a result of the explosion, 1 tank of the train burned out, and a hole was found in two tanks. After the explosion, it was possible to remove 14 tanks, but further transportation of the cars is not yet possible – the explosion seriously damaged the rails, and the leaked fuel flooded them.

Later, another train was blown up in the same area. 4 tanks of the train burned out, two more were damaged by fire.”

Ukrainian media and some western media according to their sources related to SBU say that it was a work of the Security Service of Ukraine
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/30/europe/russia-train-fire-ukraine-intl/index.html

Another incident in Buryatia has been reported. According to the Russian TG channel “Mash” an IED was planted on the tracks.

“The explosive device detonated on the night of November 29-30, four kilometers from the village of Taksimo.
In total, the train contained 41 tank cars… pic.twitter.com/6y4ZEWwSMD

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 1, 2023

Another incident in Buryatia has been reported. According to the Russian TG channel “Mash” an IED was planted on the tracks.

“The explosive device detonated on the night of November 29-30, four kilometers from the village of Taksimo.
In total, the train contained 41 tank cars with fuel, 3 with aviation fuel and 6 with ferrous metal. No (human) casualties are reported.”

This is the same night where 100km away from this incident the other train in the Severomuysky Tunnel was struck. Kyiv Post said that a Ukrainian operation of the SBU is responsible for the strike and the SBU is certainly capable of this, but there could be also another explanation. The people of Buryatia are disproportionately used in Russia’s wars and suffered huge losses. I wouldn’t be surprised that this is the work of rebels. But that is speculation on my part.

Either way, Moscow has more problems in the Far East than it is willing to admit. Chelyabinsk suffered also a huge blow when the tractor factory was compromised some days ago.

Source: https://t.me/breakingmash/49833

#Ukraine #Russia #Buryatia

For Omnes:

Jingle Bells

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/aKyCfSGAwU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 1, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There are no new Patron tweets today, so here’s some adjacent material.

Top-secret bio lab cultivating Ukraine’s elite SOF killer birds in action pic.twitter.com/1e7oo3UszK

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 1, 2023

Best friends.

📷: 53rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/e71M8HEuPK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 1, 2023

Look at those jowls!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Підписуйтеся на мій другий акаунт @Patron the Dog, там буде цікаво!👀🐾🧡

♬ son original – Woken

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Follow me on my second account @Patron the Dog, it will be interesting! 👀🐾🧡

Open thread!

We discussed mobilizing resources for fortification works: the priority is clear – address by the President of Ukraine

30 November 2023 – 20:58

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just held two important meetings in Zaporizhzhia. An operational one with the military, with Generals Tarnavskyi, Moskaliov, Litvinov and all those responsible for defense here in Zaporizhzhia region. The second meeting was actually a nationwide meeting on fortifications. In all major areas where we need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures.

Of course, these are primarily Avdiivka, Maryinka and other areas in Donetsk region that will receive maximum attention. Kharkiv region – the direction of Kupyansk, as well as the Kupyansk – Lyman defense line. The entire Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, and Volyn regions, as well as the south – Kherson region. There were reports from regional authorities, all the relevant military commanders. Defense Minister Umerov, General Pavliuk. We discussed the mobilization of resources, the motivation of private business in this work, and financing. The priority is obvious. I am grateful to everyone working on this kind of construction, in the production of materials. We also discussed the needs that we will address with our partners to reinforce our defense lines. Special attention is paid to the construction of shelters in schools, in particular here in Zaporizhzhia and the region, so that children can study at least in a mixed format – offline as well.

I was in Kharkiv today. A good, emotional meeting in a metro school – an extremely useful, appropriate project. Children study in classrooms like in a regular school, but in the subway – in the shelter that is the subway. I talked to the boys and girls – bright eyes, bright minds, and a very bright school. There is a future when there are children like this. I am sure of it. I had the honor of awarding teachers from Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, from different cities, who work in Ukraine, for the sake of Ukraine.

This morning I was in Kupyansk – it is important to support our city and our defenders. I held a meeting with General Syrskyi and the commanders who are fighting in the Kupyansk sector. I awarded the five officers who were present and asked to present awards to soldiers, sergeants, and junior officers separately. Thank you, warriors, for your resilience and for your daily hard work!

Today I had three phone calls. German Chancellor Scholz, British Prime Minister Sunak, and Bulgarian Prime Minister Denkov. I have a lot to thank our partners for: our agreements – Ukraine and Germany, Ukraine and the UK, Ukraine and Bulgaria – are all being implemented. We have also outlined new joint steps. Protection of our people. Protection of our Europe. Protection of the international legal order. I thank everyone in the world who helps Ukraine!

Glory to all our heroes who are now in combat! Glory to the powerful Ukrainian people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

This is Danylo and Diana. They were killed by russia.

Six months after russia invaded Ukraine, they met for their first date. Danylo proposed in the basement shelter where they took cover from russian bombs. They could have a happy and long life together.

But it ended suddenly,… pic.twitter.com/7k0y02uc1A

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

This is Danylo and Diana. They were killed by russia.

Six months after russia invaded Ukraine, they met for their first date. Danylo proposed in the basement shelter where they took cover from russian bombs. They could have a happy and long life together.

But it ended suddenly, when russian missile strike crashed through their home and killed them both instantly, one month before their first wedding anniversary.

📸: Ed Ram / The Washington Post

The purpose:

"Thank you for risking your lives every day so that we can live peacefully and safely"—an excerpt from a greeting card for a Ukrainian defender prepared by a kid.

A sincere "thank you" from a child—this is worth fighting for. Even the youngest Ukrainians support warriors in our… pic.twitter.com/PBaxDEcTMt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

“Thank you for risking your lives every day so that we can live peacefully and safely”—an excerpt from a greeting card for a Ukrainian defender prepared by a kid.

A sincere “thank you” from a child—this is worth fighting for. Even the youngest Ukrainians support warriors in our fight for freedom.

📸: 44th Mechanized Brigade

President Zelenskyy made a battlefield circulation yesterday.

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe… pic.twitter.com/gV2AnANuXY

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe weather.

Mykolaiv. Meeting with our Danish friends who are working in the city on specific restoration projects. It’s a genuinely effective patronage. There were also representatives from the diplomatic corps of the countries we invited to join the recovery programs.

And finally, Kherson. Protection of the city, protection of the region. Local officials presented the results of the construction of shelters. The plans that are yet to be implemented. I also held a very substantive and detailed meeting concerning our actions on the southern frontlines.

Kupyansk:

Передовий командний пункт оборонців Купʼянська. Честь – відвідати та нагородити воїнів.

Бійці на Куп’янському напрямку захищають мирне життя українців – людей Харківщини. Я дякую воїнам за службу, за захист нашої держави! Бажаю перемоги, бути міцними й не втрачати ініціативи. pic.twitter.com/9s8vcfMZur

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 30, 2023

The frontline command post of Kupyansk defenders. It was an honor to meet and award the warriors.

The fighters on the Kupyansk front are defending the peaceful life of Ukrainians, the people of Kharkiv region. I thank the warriors for their service, for defending our state! I wish them victory, to stay strong and keep up the momentum.

Mykolaiv Oblast:

Visit to Mykolaiv region. The Danish Patronage Program over the region is an example that demonstrates to other countries what we can do together for the benefit of our nations and the protection of common values. I am grateful to Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen @Statsmin and all… pic.twitter.com/vOdB2Z2vkN

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Visit to Mykolaiv region. The Danish Patronage Program over the region is an example that demonstrates to other countries what we can do together for the benefit of our nations and the protection of common values. I am grateful to Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen
@Statsmin
and all Danes for their warmth and attention to our people, for such effective cooperation.

Immediately afterwards, I visited Kherson. There I visited the largest shelter in the city, listened to a report on the construction of protective structures and shelters. I held a meeting on the operational situation in Kherson region and the course of the hostilities on the left bank. I also met with the warriors who are carrying out offensive operations and presented them with awards.

Odesa:

Сьогодні працюємо на Одещині.

Розпочали з доповідей військових і наради щодо захисту регіону. Ситуація в Чорному морі, протимінні заходи та гарантування безпеки «зернового коридору». Робота ППО Одещини, прикриття з повітря Одеси, наших портів. Вручив державні нагороди воїнам,… pic.twitter.com/GCc1V1Bb9k

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Today we are working in Odesa region.

We started with reports from the military and a meeting on the protection of the region. The situation in the Black Sea, mine countermeasures and ensuring the security of the grain corridor. The work of air defense in Odesa region, air cover for Odesa and our ports. I presented state awards to the warriors defending the southern regions and our Black Sea water area.

I visited the regional center for IDPs in Odesa.

I also held a meeting on eliminating the aftermath of severe weather. We must speed up the restoration of electricity supply in the affected towns and villages.

The Donbas:

The beauty of Donbas landscapes.

russia tries to raze this region to the ground, but they are unable to break the Ukrainian spirit.

📹: 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" pic.twitter.com/janzZZyFd2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/2. Russian BUK was targeted 46km from the frontline https://t.co/05MG86hMbv pic.twitter.com/SgRPheE91P

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok 220mm MLRS destroyed by the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine. Left bank Kherson region. https://t.co/9rot1rPLR7 pic.twitter.com/lVzeuGhn2R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

Avdiivka:

Bombardment of abounded Russian MT-LBs on Avdiivka front. By the 110th Brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/GAvXAmoJVl pic.twitter.com/oVGyvmxmPm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

The Republic of Buryatia:

Ukraine’s SBU blows up freight train in rail tunnel deep inside Russia.

According to Kyiv Post, a freight train with military goods from China was struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal Amur Mainline in Buryatia, north of Mongolia.

Source: https://t.co/lU7jM37k6b… pic.twitter.com/yZLhquuyM2

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 30, 2023

Ukraine’s SBU blows up freight train in rail tunnel deep inside Russia.

According to Kyiv Post, a freight train with military goods from China was struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal Amur Mainline in Buryatia, north of Mongolia.

Source: http://kyivpost.com/post/24856

#Ukraine #Russia #Buryatia

Rostov on Don, Russia:

A group of Russian marines died in an explosion at the Kuzminsky training ground near Rostov on November 3. – Russian media
– About 20 people from the [marine brigade] lit a fire during their lunch break nearby with ammunition storage. The RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled… https://t.co/26ugwig9RL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

A group of Russian marines died in an explosion at the Kuzminsky training ground near Rostov on November 3. – Russian media
– About 20 people from the [marine brigade] lit a fire during their lunch break nearby with ammunition storage. The RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled into the fire and exploded. Eight people died on the spot, another eight were injured. All those injured and killed were contract soldiers from Vladivostok. Four seriously wounded soldiers died in hospital within a few days.

Today is the 84th anniversary of the start of Finland’s Winter War against Russian invasion:

On this day 84 years ago, Soviet-Russia launched an unprovoked full scale war against Finland. It would become known as the “Winter War”. The Soviet plans was to capture all of Finland within 2 weeks, but as many other plans conceived in Moscow this one as well disintegrated when… pic.twitter.com/bY3j5g3q1D

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 30, 2023

On this day 84 years ago, Soviet-Russia launched an unprovoked full scale war against Finland. It would become known as the “Winter War”. The Soviet plans was to capture all of Finland within 2 weeks, but as many other plans conceived in Moscow this one as well disintegrated when colliding with reality.

Finland, though being totally outmanned and outgunned, repelled the initial invasion and inflicted devastating losses among Soviet ranks. Especially the Battle of Suomussalmi, which ended in an overwhelming Finish victory, crossed Moscow’s plan and embarrassed the largest army in the world of this time.

However, Finland was basically left alone. Neither the Western allies, nor Germany, which was mainly honoring the Hitler-Stalin pact, came decisively to help. Volunteers from Scandinavia, primarily from Sweden, made the bulk of foreign help, which was however small compared to Soviet huge reserves. Finland resisted the full occupation thanks to its valiant resilience of its people but was eventually compelled to sign a harsh treaty which cost them 12% of Finish territory.

84 years later Russia hasn’t changed much and proves once again to be an untrustworthy neighbor with imperial ambitions, this time in Ukraine. Though the Western support is different than back in 1939 and Russia not even close to what the Soviet Union once was, it is still baffling to see how mistakes in the West are repeated. Instead of a decisive and an all-deterrent commitment in helping an attacked country, a lot of timid steps and statements can be observed, just like in 1939. Ukraine certainly repelled the initial invasion and even cleared vast areas from Russian presence, but the lack and slow pace of foreign help only stretched the war which could have been ended long ago if delivery of military goods and production of ammunition would have been launched one day one. 21 months later Russia has been severely weakened but is still capable to wage war. Instead of taking of the gloves and going all-in, certain elements in the West still cling to their failed appeasement tactic which led to this problem in the first place.

It is obvious that none of the traditional attempts to appease Moscow led to anything but escalation and suffering. Only a decisive strike against all Russian troops in occupied Ukraine, supported by massive military deliveries from the West can end this war in an acceptable way. It is still time to learn from the mistakes, from those in 1939 and those 2022/2023.

#Finland #Ukraine

Obligatory:

For Omnes:

3 steps of effective artillery combat actions.

1: Load the gun
2: Destroy enemy positions
3: Enjoy the results

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/XshV8lJPpt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

The House majority GOP caucus and their fellow travelers in the Senate GOP minority caucus are holding up funds for American workers in their . The Washington Post has the details:

Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but are being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.

But you wouldn’t know that from the actions of some U.S. lawmakers. When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) joined a United Auto Workers picket line in October at the Jeep assembly plant in Toledo, he said he wanted to “show some support for the UAW workers” in his state. Yet he has not shown the same solidarity with the UAW workers in Lima, Ohio, who are churning out Abrams tanks and Stryker combat vehicles for Ukraine thanks to the military aid that Congress has approved. Vance opposes Ukraine aid, as does Rep. Jim Jordan (R), whose House district includes Lima.

Ohio voters might have expected their elected leaders to be pushing the (reluctant) Biden administration to give Ukraine more Lima-produced tanks and vehicles — or to require that more of them be included in the aid package for Ukraine that Congress will soon take up. Instead, Vance and Jordan are fighting to stop Ukraine from receiving any more union-made tanks and combat vehicles from America’s only tank factory.

It’s not just them. In all, 31 senators and House members whose states or districts benefit from funding for Ukraine have voted to oppose or restrict that aid. They include some of the most prominent anti-Ukraine voices in Congress, such as Republican Sens. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Tommy Tuberville (Ala.) and Mike Braun (Ind.), as well as Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bill Posey (Fla.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) and Lance Gooden (Tex.).

At a time when both major parties are competing to win working-class votes and strengthen the U.S. manufacturing base, our military aid to Ukraine does exactly that — it is providing a major cash infusion into factories across the country that directly benefits American workers. It is also creating jobs and opportunities for local suppliers, shops, restaurants and other businesses that support the factories rolling out weapons.

Until now, no one had mapped out precisely where these U.S. military aid funds are going. My American Enterprise Institute colleagues Clara Keuss, Noah Burke and I have catalogued the weapons systems being produced in the United States for Ukraine — tracing the states and congressional districts where they are being made and how senators and House members voted on the funding. We analyzed contracts and press releases and spoke to defense industry experts, diplomats and Pentagon officials to determine where U.S. tax dollars end up.

We have identified 117 production lines in at least 31 states and 71 cities where American workers are producing major weapons systems for Ukraine. For example, aid that Congress has already approved is going to, among many other places:

• Simi Valley, Calif.; Fullerton, Calif.; Andover, Mass.; Forest, Miss.; and York, Pa., to build Switchblade unmanned aerial systems, radar systems and tactical vehicles.
• York, Pa., and Anniston, Ala., to build Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
• Aiken, S.C.; Elgin, Okla.; Sterling Heights, Mich.; Endicott, N.Y.; York, Pa.; and Minneapolis to build howitzers.
• Peoria, Ill.; Clearwater, Palm Bay and Niceville, Fla.; Camden, Ark.; Lancaster and Grand Prairie, Tex.; Rocket Center, W.Va.; and Trenton, N.J., to build HIMARS launchers.
• Anniston and Huntsville, Ala., and Camden, Ark., to build parts for the Hydra-70 rocket.
• Farmington, N.M.; Orlando; Tucson; and Troy, Ala., to build Javelin antitank missiles.

Many other weapons systems are being built for Ukraine in factories around our country. Nor does this list count the suppliers that provide these contractors with parts, such as plastic and computer chips, or produce smaller items for Ukraine, such as cold-weather and night-vision gear, medical supplies, spare parts and millions of rounds of small-arms ammunition. As one Ukrainian official told me, “Every single state in the U.S. contributes to this effort.”

In other words, as happens with foreign military aid, our aid to Ukraine is not only creating American jobs but also reinvigorating our dangerously atrophied defense industrial base. Vance said in October that “the condition of the American defense industrial base is a national scandal. Repairing it is among our most urgent priorities.” Well, our aid to Ukraine is doing exactly that.

For example, the United States had not built a single new Stinger antiaircraft missile since 2005. The terrorists we were fighting in recent decades did not have jet fighters, so production faltered. Now, thanks to the Ukraine aid that Vance opposes, the Pentagon signed a $624.6 million contract last year to build Stinger missiles in Tucson, to replace about 1,400 sent to Ukraine. Without our Ukraine resupply effort, the Stinger production line likely would have remained dormant — perhaps until bombs started dropping in a conflict over Taiwan.

Or take the $600 million being used to build two weapons systems for Ukraine in St. Charles, Mo. One is the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM ER), an air-launched GPS-guided weapon that converts dumb bombs into precision-guided glide bombs with a range of up to 45 miles (triple the range of the original weapon). The other is the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), a weapon system newly developed for Ukraine that can be launched from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and can travel 93 miles, almost double the range of current ground-launched precision munition systems.

If we were not aiding Ukraine, the United States would not be producing either of these weapons. The funding Congress has provided to manufacture both systems injects many millions of dollars into Missouri’s economy and is busying production lines for these advanced capabilities. Those systems will now be available for the United States and Taiwan should a conflict erupt with China, as well as available for Israel.

Workers in West Plains, Mo., are using Ukraine aid to build the MIM-104 Phased Array Tracking Radar for the Patriot missile system that shocked the world this year by downing Russia’s supposedly “invincible” hypersonic missile. This saved Ukrainian lives and proved in real battlefield conditions that the upgraded Patriot system might help defend against hypersonic threats from other adversaries.

Most senators would take credit for these successes. Not Hawley, who is trying to cut funding for these systems being built in his state. The same goes for Rep. Jason T. Smith, who represents Missouri’s 8th Congressional District, where the Patriot radars are built, yet has voted against such aid multiple times. Missouri’s other Republican U.S. senator, Eric Schmitt, has not yet voted on Ukraine aid but has said, “I don’t support these forever wars.” Perhaps he will support defense investments that benefit Missouri workers and strengthen our military production capacity to defend against Communist China?

Among the most shocking examples of our defense industrial base’s decline is our struggle to produce a relatively simple munition: 155mm artillery shells. These shells would be in high demand in any conflict the United States fights. Ukraine is firing 6,000 to 8,000 such shells a day, and Israel is ordering them by the tens of thousands. But before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, the United States was producing fewer than 15,000 shells per month. So the Pentagon has allocated $1.5 billion to boost production by 500 percent and is on pace to reach 100,000 per month.

With our withered defense production capacity, including a lack of machine tools, reaching that rate will take two years. Even then, the U.S. output in 2025 is likely to not match that of Russia in 2024. But were it not for our aid to Ukraine, those U.S. production increases would not be happening. With money Congress approved to arm Kyiv, shells are being assembled in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., and in a new factory in Camden, Ark., using components (including explosives, propellant, primers, fuses and shell bodies) produced in such U.S. cities and towns as Kingsport and Cordova, Tenn.; Bristol, Pa.; Middletown, Iowa; and Coachella, Calif. A factory being built in Mesquite, Tex., is expected to produce about 20,000 shells a month and employ at least 125 workers after it comes online early next year. The president of the Mesquite Chamber of Commerce told the New York Times that lawmakers who oppose Ukraine aid are “voting against your constituents. … You’re literally saying no to the people you’re representing.” Yet Gooden, who represents Mesquite, voted against the aid that is helping fund the new plant in his district.

Our aid to Ukraine is not only forcing the Pentagon to rapidly increase the United States’ ability to produce weapons; it’s also modernizing the U.S. military. As retired Army Maj. Gen. John G. Ferrari, now a colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, recently pointed out, we are giving Ukraine weapons systems that are often decades old and then replacing our stockpiles with more advanced versions. “Because of the existing budget pressures on the Army, it wouldn’t be able to afford this needed modernization of equipment on its own,” Ferrari wrote in an op-ed. “By transferring weapons and gear to Ukraine, the Army would receive more modern weapons in return.”

The U.S.-led effort to arm Ukraine reinvigorates our defense production capacity in still other ways. The United States is also creating incentives for NATO allies to donate their old U.S.-produced and Soviet-era weapons systems to Ukraine by authorizing the sale of newer, modern U.S.-made systems to replace them. For example, Poland sent 250 older Soviet and German tanks to Ukraine and signed a $4.75 billion deal in April 2022 to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams replacement tanks that will be produced at the Lima, Ohio, factory. Poland subsequently made a $1.4 billion deal for additional tanks. Poland also sent its Soviet-made Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine and then signed a $12 billion deal to purchase 96 Apache helicopters that will be built in Mesa, Ariz.

Efforts to arm and equip Ukraine have also dramatically boosted sales of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets. This benefits workers at production facilities in Palmdale, Calif.; East Hartford, Conn.; Middletown, Iowa; and Fort Worth, as well as in other U.S. cities that produce parts for the jets. Finland, which finalized a $9.4 billion deal to purchase 64 F-35s, has said the new planes will allow it to donate its old F/A-18 Hornet fighters to Ukraine. Norway, which has donated old F-16 fighters to Ukraine, is purchasing 52 F-35s and spending $293 million to arm them with 580 StormBreaker Small Diameter Bombs made in Tucson. Denmark and the Netherlands are donating 61 F-16s to Ukraine and replacing them with additional F-35s.

In all, our analysis found that there are at least 13 production lines in 10 states and 11 U.S. cities producing new American-made weapons for NATO allies to replace the equipment they have sent to Ukraine. As Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has concluded, “Much of the money directly supporting Ukraine is spent not abroad, but here in the United States.” This makes it “a misnomer” to call the $68 billion he calculates we have spent to arm Ukraine “aid.”

We asked for comments from the lawmakers who voted against aid that is going to their districts. “Manufacturing weapons in Ohio is good. You know what’s better? Using them for our own defense rather than sending them to a corrupt money pit in Eastern Europe,” Vance said. “There’s no question why Ukraine wants Abrams tanks … but our constituents have great concerns about seemingly unlimited taxpayer money being used to fund the war in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Jordan replied. “Alabama is right to be proud of our role in securing America’s national defense, but the United States cannot get involved in every conflict around the world,” said Tuberville. “We borrow $1 trillion every six months, and our growing national debt is our most dire national security threat,” said a spokesman for Braun. “I don’t vote for or against wars based on which congressional districts get the jobs,” Gaetz responded.

Putin is taking advantage of the assistance provided by his useful Republican idiots, as well as risk adverse senior national security leaders in the US, the EU, and NATO:

Solid attempt of @TheEconomist to bring West elites out of complacency&galvanise into action.

Fact that RU suffered miserably in 2022 made some people to think in “Mission accomplished” mode. RU partially recovered psychologically&invested in long term fight – unlike West. pic.twitter.com/xcxuMD6NAj

— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) November 30, 2023

“The West could do more to frustrate Putin…it could deploy industrial & financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency & a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe.” @TheEconomist ($)
https://t.co/t1W5MTIHtr

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 30, 2023

The Economist via the Wayback Machine:

For the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24th 2022, he looks as if he could win. Russia’s president has put his country on a war footing and strengthened his grip on power. He has procured military supplies abroad and is helping turn the global south against America. Crucially, he is undermining the conviction in the West that Ukraine can—and must—emerge from the war as a thriving European democracy.

The West could do a lot more to frustrate Mr Putin. If it chose, it could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake as well as Ukraine’s, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy.

The reason a Putin victory is possible is that winning is about endurance rather than capturing territory. Neither army is in a position to drive out the other from the land they currently control. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stalled. Russia is losing over 900 men a day in the battle to take Avdiivka, a city in the Donbas region. This is a defenders’ war, and it could last many years.

However, the battlefield shapes politics. Momentum affects morale. If Ukraine retreats, dissent in Kyiv will grow louder. So will voices in the West saying that sending Ukraine money and weapons is a waste. In 2024 at least, Russia will be in a stronger position to fight, because it will have more drones and artillery shells, because its army has developed successful electronic-warfare tactics against some Ukrainian weapons and because Mr Putin will tolerate horrific casualties among his own men.

Increasing foreign support partly explains Russia’s edge on the battlefield. Mr Putin has obtained drones from Iran and shells from North Korea. He has worked to convince much of the global south that it has no great stake in what happens to Ukraine. Turkey and Kazakhstan have become channels for goods that feed the Russian war machine. A Western scheme to limit Russian oil revenues by capping the price for its crude at $60 a barrel has failed because a parallel trading structure has emerged beyond the reach of the West. The price of Urals crude from Russia is $64, up nearly 10% since the start of 2023.

Mr Putin is also winning because he has strengthened his position at home. He now tells Russians, absurdly, that they are locked in a struggle for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like the war, but they have become used to it. The elite have tightened their grip on the economy and are making plenty of money. Mr Putin can afford to pay a lifetime’s wages to the families of those who fight and die.

Faced with all this, no wonder the mood in Kyiv is darker. Politics has returned, as people jostle for influence. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, and Valery Zaluzhny, its most senior general, have fallen out. Internal polling suggests that corruption scandals and worries about Ukraine’s future have dented Mr Zelensky’s standing with voters.

Western governments insist they are as committed to Ukraine as ever. But polls around the world suggest that many doubt it. In America the Biden administration is struggling to make Congress release funding worth over $60bn. Next year’s election campaign will soon get in the way. If Donald Trump is elected president, having promised peace in short order, America could suddenly stop supplying weapons altogether.

Europe should be preparing for that dire possibility—and for American help to slow, whoever is in the White House. Instead, European leaders are carrying on as if munificent Joe Biden will always be in charge. The European Union has promised Ukraine €50bn ($56bn), but the money is being held up by Hungary and, possibly, a budgetary mess in Germany. In December the eu should signal that it is ready to start talks for Ukraine’s membership. But many believe that the process will be intentionally strung out because enlargement is hard and threatens vested interests. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was recorded (during a prank call) saying that Europe is weary. You would think a Trump presidency would galvanise support for Ukraine, as Europe took responsibility for its own defence. One leader privately predicts that support will in fact fragment.

That would be a disaster. By 2025 the strain of running a war may start to catch up with Mr Putin. Russians may increasingly resent the forced mobilisations, inflation and diversion of social spending to the army. Yet simply hoping that his regime collapses makes no sense. He could remain in power for years and if he does, he will threaten war because that is his excuse for domestic repression and his own people’s suffering. He has blighted his country’s prospects by isolating it from Europe and driving its most enterprising people into exile. Without war, the hollowness of his rule would be on full display.

Europe must, therefore, plan for Mr Putin as the main long-term threat to its security. Russia will rearm. It will have combat experience. Planning for Europe’s defence should be designed to prevent Mr Putin from sensing weakness on its flank—especially if he doubts a President Trump’s willingness to fight should a nato country be attacked.

The best way to deter Mr Putin would be for Europe to demonstrate its resolve by showing right now that it is fully committed to a thriving, democratic, westward-looking Ukraine. Weapons matter, especially air defences and long-range missiles to strike at Russian supply lines, which is why it is crucial for America to approve the latest tranche of aid. Because arsenals are already depleted, more work needs to go into increasing the capacity of Western arms-makers. Sanctions could be targeted more effectively to split the regime from the elite.

Political action in Europe is essential, too (see Charlemagne). Mr Putin will attack Ukraine’s cities and subvert its society to sabotage the country’s transformation into a Western democracy. In response Europe should be redoubling its efforts to ensure that Ukraine progresses, with the promise of money and eu accession. European leaders have not acknowledged the size of the task—indeed, too many seem to shrink from it. That is folly. They should heed Leon Trotsky: they may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them.

All of this is made easier because of Russia’s information warfare campaign against the US, the EU states, NATO, and our non-EU and non-NATO allies. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Some things look a lot clearer in hindsight.

That’s especially true for russian disinformation. Its peddlers have to keep up with ever changing narratives so they hope you’re too distracted by new lies to hold them to account for the old lies.

But let’s, for a moment, step away… pic.twitter.com/KhxvM5hy1A

— Bad Baltic Takes (@BadBalticTakes) November 30, 2023

Some things look a lot clearer in hindsight.

That’s especially true for russian disinformation. Its peddlers have to keep up with ever changing narratives so they hope you’re too distracted by new lies to hold them to account for the old lies.

But let’s, for a moment, step away from current bullshit & rewind exactly 2 years.

Settle in. This is gonna be a LONG one, but I think there are key lessons to learn. 🧵

⏪ It’s November 2021.

This was the period in which the continued build up of russia’s invasion force became so impossible to ignore that many people internationally first heard concerns predicting the impending invasion.

There was lots of good journalism and analysis back then going into detail about why it appeared russia was planning an invasion and what the world could urgently do to deter it.

Russia ridiculed the warnings. As Business Insider reported:

‘Russia says it’s not planning an invasion as US and others raise concerns about troop buildup near Ukraine’.

A kremlin spokesperson said that “the movement of troops on our territory shouldn’t be a cause for anyone’s concern” and any suggestion it was planning to invade Ukraine [further] was a “hollow and unfounded attempt to incite tensions”, adding “russia doesn’t threaten anyone”.

These denials were crucial, not just for the element of surprise against Ukraine, but also to bypass both global and domestic outrage building in advance to stop the war and so that russia could later attempt to craft its propaganda narrative about how it had been provoked once its invasion force was in place.

As you can probably guess, ‘others’ from the headline included the Baltic countries. Our leaders were urgently warning the world to deter russian aggression by standing with Ukraine and making clear the cost to russia of a wider war.

But, despite the massive invasion force being built up around Ukraine by an aggressor state that had already partially invaded Ukraine, there was also fairly widespread doubt building internationally too about whether the invasion force was an invasion force and so whether any attempt at deterrence was needed.

I spent some time looking through articles and tweets that summarise public perceptions and how it was being influenced from November into December 2021.

A number of “russia experts” – mostly former moscow correspondents who boosted each other online and have some curious connections offline – had quite a significant influence while ridiculing anyone concerned about russia’s threat. Their behaviour worked out exactly in the interests of the kremlin, which was desperate to deceive the world about its invasion plans.

In retrospect, their writings clearly have very close similarities with that of Walter Duranty back in the 1930s.

They ridicule reports about russia we now know were accurate, they smear the authors of those reports as propagandists, and they minimise Eastern European perspectives that warned about russia in ways that, again, we now know were accurate. Only fellow “russia experts” from russia and westerners who have spent time as moscow correspondents should be listened to, they heavily implied (even though they proved to be 100% wrong).

Oh, and this was also the height of the human trafficking operation organised through Belarus as part of hybrid warfare against Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

These same “russia experts” were also busy pouring doubt on suggestions russia was fuelling it, which of course we know today is as absurd as them saying russia wouldn’t invade.

Next tweet, some key observations. 

Here’s a few key things I’d forgotten were considered normal two years ago in public discourse from these “russia experts” but is much more notable in hindsight:

– The people with the worst takes were a lot more friendly with each other then than now.

You see, the widespread revulsion towards russia’s full scale war forced russia’s assets and useful idiots to pick whether they’d publicly condemn the invasion (while more subtly promoting kremlin narratives) or go all in and start justifying it. So these two types of propaganda pushers now have to act like they are on opposing sides. Yet, 2 years ago, many of these same people were friendly with each other and boosting each other by retweeting, engaging, and sharing each other’s articles.

That’s how they gained disproportionate influence. By acting as one network, quite openly until the full scale war.

Ok, maybe they genuinely fell out over opposing beliefs but then it’s not like we’ve seen any reflection among the ‘moderates’ about why they were previously being amplified by genocide-supporting extremists.

– I forgot how vitriolic they all used to be, even then. Anyone expressing concern about russian aggression was being called “grifters”, the “russia-bashing industry”, and “war mongers” – and, according to them, should pay the price for getting it wrong when russia doesn’t invade (presumably with more ridicule and demonisation simply for deterring russian aggression).

Yet now they think it’s really unfair when, for example, some bad takes account shows how bad their takes were and asks them some long overdue awkward questions about their kremlin connections.

– The “russia experts” engaged in bizarrely nonsensical theorising, the logic of which they very quickly abandoned when the full scale war began.

You see, they needed a way to explain why people were warning about russia if there was no threat so they indulged in conspiracy theories and bizarre logic that concerns about russia were being expressed in order to… er, provoke a war.

So, if they were consistent, they would now believe russia’s full scale war was provoked by western predictions of its full scale war. (Although I have no clue how that makes sense).

But they didn’t follow through on that logic. As soon as the full scale war began, they had to quickly ditch those conspiracy theories if they wanted to maintain their image as independent journalists opposed to the war. They knew they couldn’t get away with that nonsense in the face of widespread revulsion to russia’s invasion. It’s like they never actually believed the bullshit they were saying two years ago.

– I need to reiterate that there was LOTS of good analysis at the time warning about the very real impending risk of a russian invasion. I found all kinds of journalists, politicians, and think tank analysts who feared what was coming and offered good solutions, such as in discussion around sanctions. That’s in addition to millions of ordinary people concerned about the invasion force. The “russia experts” were ridiculing them.

This is important to remember because these same “russia experts” now like to say “no one could have predicted putin would do this [full scale war]”. That’s gaslighting. They are just trying to cover their tracks for their own consistently bad takes.

– Finally, at the heart of all this is the marginalisation of Eastern European voices. They talked of invasion concerns as if it was a purely American elite thing and then talked about how it was debunked by “Russian and Western experts on Russia”. The people most affected by russian aggression, among whom millions of ordinary people could clearly see it coming, were largely erased from the discourse. Just as this war is about erasing them too.

I’m glad that looks so bizarre and horribly outdated now. But we didn’t need a full scale war to know that the people most experienced and impacted by something (like russian aggression) also know the most about it. 

Let’s take a look at a “russia expert”who best typifies the previous points.

As “the third longest serving foreign correspondent in Russia”, Ben Aris is an award-winning journalist.

And I use the word ‘journalist’… well, incorrectly.

Because he built his career while also working for the russian state and its them who gave him his awards. He was ‘Business Journalist of the Year’ multiple times, although he accepted that from russia’s state news agency.

Two years ago, Aris was furiously tweeting and writing articles about how “There. Is. No. Danger. Of. Invasion.” He said the idea russia would invade Ukraine [further] was just being gleefully hyped so the West can sell more weapons.

“But analysts – both Russian and international – are almost unanimous in the belief that the chances of an actual invasion are almost zero.”

It’s a particularly odd thing to say as he was also busy mocking analysts for saying the thing they apparently weren’t saying.

And, of course, there are no Eastern European voices referenced in this coverage.

Aris reasoned russia wouldn’t invade because “the only thing of value Ukraine has is agriculture, which would collapse in the event of an all-out war”.

The more you think about that sentence, the worse it gets. A “russia expert” confidently claiming Ukraine has nothing of value for imperial conquest. It has layers of absurdity.

Aris also claimed that putin always signalled exactly what he was going to do and could be trusted to follow through on it (somehow missing the genocidal signalling of his ‘Russians are Ukrainians as one people’ garbage).

Aris continued:

“But as it is Putin and as he has been so demonised in the last two decades a lot of what he says is ignored, or twisted to suit the various narratives used to describe Russia.”

The parallels with Walter Duranty’s work as a moscow correspondent are quite uncanny. Duranty also dismissed concerns about russia by attributing it to western propagandists, while claiming russian and western analysts were in agreement there was nothing to worry about (when obviously not the case).

In addition to being a contributor to RT, Aris established a complex web of companies – including in Cyprus, which acted as a key supplier of propaganda content to the russian state. They mostly call themselves BNE.

If I get anything wrong about them, I will happily correct it, although I never got clear answers in the past.

Aris’s cofounder is Liam Halligan – not a “russia expert” per se, but an influential finance journalist in the UK who currently presents on GB News …and has consistently argued against sanctions on russia since 2014, never missing an opportunity to argue that it harms the West financially to stand up to russia.

Their company has employed/contracted quite a few other notable “russia experts”, some of which have been featured a lot on this account for their bad takes dismissing concerns about russia. That includes, for example, Leonid Ragozin, the independent journalist “made in the BBC” who also used this period to ridicule and smear people concerned about russia’s invasion as “grifters”.

Their influence was not insignificant. For example, I’d say the most influential voice downplaying the possibility of an invasion was Time’s Simon Shuster who references the expertise of this group when stating that a russian invasion would go against everything he knows about russia.

The hill I’m prepared to die on is that no one would really have had any doubt that russia’s giant invasion force was a giant invasion force were it not for russia’s influence operation, which definitely included more than just Hubert Seipel.

Sure, 1984 and Animal Farm are great for understanding russia, but a lot of people just need to start with “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, the children’s folk tale about how social pressure convinces people not to see the obvious reality before them.

Ok, just one more concluding tweet.

The “russia experts” are still doing what they did before the full scale war they insisted would never happen.

They are still often promoting kremlin-aligned narratives, and still smearing alternative perspectives from those most affected by russian aggression as “info warriors” and “troll farms” or whatever.

Their reputations have been quite diminished and they now have to grudgingly share attention with Eastern European voices who actually know more about russia. However, they do still have a fair amount of influence.

They have not reflected in any meaningful way, nor even just apologised to people they called evil warmongering grifters for being concerned about russia’s war.

Notably, they have also been entirely uninterested in examining russian influence operations where it might have influenced people like… er, russia experts.

There was a deafening silence among them when Hubert Seipel was exposed. None of the main players commented anything. Is it really believable that they were entirely uninterested in corruption within their own industry of expertise? Especially when some of them also happen to have expertise opening companies in Cyprus.

We saw something similar with Seymour Hersh. They promoted his easily debunkable Nord Stream tale but then as the story got more interesting and it became obvious Hersh was being fed stories from a Russian speaker often just using autotranslate, the “russia experts” just entirely stopped talking about Hersh.

Now, obviously, not all “russia experts” are russian assets.

Some certainly are, as we saw with Hubert Seipel. And with people like Aris, it’s not even a case of looking for secret payments. Even though he brushes it off his CV now, he did openly work for the russian state. People like him try to normalise the idea that it’s ok to work for russia as long as you stopped after the full scale invasion. But, no. We all knew what russia was back then and it was very often pointed out to RT employees by actual journalists that they would be forever stained. They enabled what russia is now. They must own it.

But many other “russia experts” are just naive and too often susceptible to russian influence, while reflecting the russian chauvinist perspective and being too keen to ignore the voices of those who can best see reality. This is part of a structural problem with studying and becoming an expert on russia. Some of the notable names working for BNE would be in this category.

This account will always be far more interested in them and their bad takes than the vatniks. The latter are just boring attention seekers with no shame. The former have more influence and more interesting questions to answer. The russia expert industry definitely needs some self-reflection.

And, of course, there are also many real russia experts – not in quote marks – but people with a genuinely good track record understanding and explaining russia who deserve even more attention.

Even then though, I’d argue that we need to hear more UKRAINE EXPERTS and experts on other countries facing russian aggression – with as many voices from those countries as possible.

This is the ultimate lesson.

If, for some reason, you want someone to recommend a restaurant in Moscow then, sure, ask a “russia expert”. But if you want to understand russian aggression then listen to the people most affected by it on the receiving end.

“Russia experts” helped get us into this mess. The age of Walter Duranty is not yet over, although their dominance over discourse is waning. Ukraine experts can help get us out of this mess.

Ok, tweet thread over. 

The Financial Times is reporting that Russia has joined Governor DeSantis’s, his senior advisor Chris Rufo’s, Senator Tubberville’s, and the GOP’s war on LGBTQ+ people.

Russia’s Supreme Court has ruled the global gay rights movement to be an “extremist organisation” on a legal par with al-Qaeda and Isis, outlawing any display of support for LGBT+ rights.

Increasingly repressive measures have been introduced in Russia against the LGBT+ community, but Thursday’s ruling adds a complete ban on any public expression of support. Since symbols of “extremist” movements are forbidden, the ban is likely to cover gestures such as showing the rainbow flag.

The Supreme Court was responding to a suit filed two weeks ago by Russia’s justice ministry in which it argued that the LGBT+ movement was “extremist”, on the grounds that it promoted social and religious division inside Russia.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption movement has also previously been added to the country’s extremist list, as were US internet company Meta and the Jehovah’s Witnesses.

The court’s decision comes as the Kremlin devotes more resources to the propagation of so-called traditional family values — an issue it has often used to unify the Russian population against the west and western liberalism.

In November, President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order declaring 2024 the Year of the Family amid fears concerning the country’s falling birth rate and its implications for Russia’s demographics.

However, analysts and opposition figures have accused the Kremlin of using social issues such as abortion and LGBT+ rights as a way to distract from the ongoing economic and social costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.

“The classification of LGBT as an extremist movement is the beginning of Putin’s election campaign,” Ivan Zhdanov, the director of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, said on social media platform X.

“This is his clear programme for a new term: a step towards the complete Iran-isation, isolation of Russia. There will be a complete distraction from real problems, the creation of mythical enemies, discrimination against parts of the population on various grounds — this is just the beginning.”

On Thursday, activists and lawyers were scrambling to understand the repercussions of the court’s ruling, which took place behind closed doors. It offered no rationale for how the decision was made, or what criteria should determine what symbols or organisations could be classified as LGBT+.

“This is total absurdity, but it will have serious consequences,” the First Department, a collective of lawyers dealing with cases of alleged treason and espionage in Russia, said on Telegram.

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s director for eastern Europe and Central Asia, called the decision “shameful”.

“There is little if any doubt that it will lead to the persecution of LGBTI activists, undoing decades of their brave and dedicated work, while threatening to inspire and legitimise whole new levels of violence against LGBTI persons across Russia,” she said.

The court’s decision comes a decade after Russia first passed a law outlawing “gay propaganda” shortly after Putin returned to the presidency. Four months ago, he signed a new law criminalising transgender surgery and hormonal treatments for changing gender.

More at the link.

The co-founders of Mom’s Florida, one of whom is the chair of the Florida state GOP, are currently unavailable for comment. Also, “Lordy, there are tapes!”

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

Open thread!

In all regions, it is crucial to have a number of “Points of Invincibility” sufficient for any emergency situation – address by the President of Ukraine

29 November 2023 – 20:41

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. First, Odesa and the region, then Mykolaiv, and afterwards, Kherson. Many issues were raised, almost all of them concerning security, protection of our state and people.

Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I want to thank everyone who defends the region and works to increase air defense capabilities in the south.

Today I had the opportunity to present state awards to the most distinguished warriors.

I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe weather. These include Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kyiv regions. Government officials reported – the Ministers of Internal Affairs, Energy, and Infrastructure. I want to extend my gratitude to everyone who has been working these days to restore traffic on roads and electricity supply. To all the rescue teams of the State Emergency Service, National Police, National Guard, municipal services – thank you all.

I instructed to increase the number of repair crews and equipment to promptly restore electricity supply to people. If necessary, the State Emergency Service personnel and power engineers from other regions that have not experienced such problems with the weather will be brought in.

In all regions, it is crucial to have a number of “Points of Invincibility” sufficient for any emergency situation, whether related to weather or security.

Regarding heat supply in Odesa. The regional authorities are ready to help the city with everything it needs to repair the boiler facility, which was damaged due to inclement weather.

I also visited the center for IDPs in Odesa. In particular, for our citizens who were evacuated from the Gaza Strip. I am grateful that people are really taken care of.

Mykolaiv. Meeting with our Danish friends who are working in the city to restore it. It’s a genuinely effective patronage we’ve agreed upon – Ukraine and Denmark. There were also representatives from the diplomatic corps of the countries we invited to join the recovery and patronage programs. I am grateful for such attention to Ukraine, for such belief in Ukraine.

I had a very emotional and important meeting with students from three Mykolaiv universities. The universities that are working and the students that are studying – in Ukraine. For the sake of Ukraine. Adult questions. Honest emotions. Clear, bright eyes. Boys and girls, I thank you for this conversation today.

We are doing everything so that our entire state, all our people, become stronger and always remain free.

And finally, Kherson. Protection of the city, protection of the region. Local officials presented the results of the construction of shelters. The plans that are yet to be implemented.

I held a very substantive and detailed meeting with the military concerning operations specifically in the south. We discussed what is necessary, agreed on goals, and have a clear vision of priorities in communication with partners regarding supplies.

I thank everyone who cares about our country and our people! Thank you, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson. Thank you for this day. Glory to our strong people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Czech Republic:

President of the Czech Republic: Ukraine did not receive weapons for a major offensive. We didn't fulfill our promise.

Czech President Petr Pavel has said that Western partners have failed to fulfill their promise to provide weapons for Ukraine's offensive.#ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/xotcev2ACq

— Alexandre (@Toriadus) November 28, 2023

Last night in comments Martin asked:

This expansion near Kherson makes me nervous. It feels risky. Is it because it’s far enough behind the eastern front lines that Ukraine has opportunities – forces Russia to distribute their forces more? Or maybe because Russia has done such a good job freezing the action in the east through minefields and trenches that are lacking in the west?

Martin is specifically referring to the expansion across the left bank of the Dnipro into places like Krynky in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast.

Not to sound trite, everything is risky. Ukraine only has so much blood and treasure to go around. That said, a large amount of what is being done is being done by Ukrainian Special Operations specifically prepared to do riverine operations. From what I can glean from the open source reporting, they appear to be proceeding deliberately and carefully. Moreover, they also seem to be making progress. It isn’t flashy, nor is it fast, but they are slowly boring hard word. In addition to the territorial gains and their operations fixing a certain amount of Russian forces in place to try to hold the left bank, these operations have strategic morale implications. Slow, steady progress reclaiming Ukrainian territory that is under Russian occupation is still progress. It shows the Ukrainians that despite the summer and fall counteroffensive not having a major breakthrough like those of Fall 2022, progress is still being made. And it shows the rest of the world, including the Russians, that you can slow the Ukrainians down, but you can’t stop them.

Speaking of Ukrainian SOF operating somewhere in Kherson Oblast:

Effective and stable joint work of 🇺🇦 SOF operators and 🇺🇦 artillerymen.
A Russian command and staff vehicle was destroyed in the southern operational direction.#HimarsOClock

📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/1ZZoLWmNMa

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 29, 2023

Obligatory:

And speaking of Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Russians, bombing the village.
Spot the #massive impact craters from FAB-500 bombs … pic.twitter.com/BODjr9f44P

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) November 29, 2023

No video, but lots of images. Probably the same drone, that firmed the bombing, I posted below.https://t.co/AlZXGjF1US

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) November 29, 2023

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds have struck again!

Strike on the base of the Russian FPV drone operators. Video by the Birds of Madyar unit. Kherson region.
(46.7229458, 33.1941497)https://t.co/6AtXzsKsnA pic.twitter.com/mzhKtTcqPN

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 29, 2023

Last I read, Magyar’s Birds were operating across the left bank of the Dnipro. So the Ukrainian SOF riverine forces appear to have drone support.

Also, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Absolute destruction of the Russian 9A317M of the BUK-M3 air defense system. Presumably Kherson region. https://t.co/USwEcSeNjk pic.twitter.com/cEOWksQirL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 29, 2023

Here’s the whole video:

Irpin:

Meanwhile in Irpin pic.twitter.com/gAg1SGFmMj

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 29, 2023

Donetsk:

FPV drone destroys Russian 2S19 Msta-S 152.4mm self-propelled howitzer. Donetsk region. https://t.co/IHIe7ZkKEU pic.twitter.com/c5P8QFAdVQ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 29, 2023

Budonivskyi, Russian occupied Donestk Oblast:

/2. Russian repair base location https://t.co/sYZOTGzAyz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 29, 2023

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Targeting of Russian TOR air defense system. By the 128th brigade of Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia front https://t.co/hlw9fEcRiv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 29, 2023

Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:

Excellent work of the 128th OGSHBr — and another machine of the complex receives significant damage, and the crew replenishes the statistics of the GS.
Destruction of air defense systems is not just preemptive work. This is the “clearing” of an entire section of the front, on which dozens of our UAVs will be able to operate with impunity for a certain period of time.

Russian occupied Crimea:

The incoming pictures from the Russian-occupied areas in Crimea show extensive damage along the coast lines. Barriers protecting port installations and the Kerch Bridge are partially or completely gone. Even the infamous dolphin pens in Sevastopol are destroyed.#Ukraine #Crimea https://t.co/pwaPBxBRp6

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 29, 2023

***UPDATE***
Here -> https://t.co/JNp29b73XL

A massive storm battered Crimea on the Nov 26-27. Preliminary analysis reveals that the dolphin pens in Sevastopol harbor are gone(!) 100%

It is plausible that some or all of the trained dolphins have been freed. #OSINT pic.twitter.com/hRTwX6dp8l

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) November 28, 2023

Clear image of harbor entrance, no dolphin penhttps://t.co/91firOyzfS

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) November 28, 2023

🇷🇺BSF: SEVASTOPOL🇷🇺
0.5M📸 from 28 Nov 2023. Still cloudy so only a view of the harbor entrance & the Frigate Pier.
-Dolphin pens are likely gone and the defenses are there but are they still functional?
-Admiral Makarov rode out the storm or she arrived shortly after pic.twitter.com/PwHt9vlsGr

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) November 28, 2023

The Crimean TV has been hacked, again. Instead of content of the Russian occupation, a clip showing an address of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has been broadcasted.

Source: https://t.co/ho5jI0MH3I#Ukraine #Crimea pic.twitter.com/rjQvTcg2rZ

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 29, 2023

Last night the Saki airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea was struck. The base is home of the 43rd regiment of the Russian Air Force. Preliminary estimates say that around 30 Russian personnel were killed in that attack.

Source: https://t.co/Ml1DUgCVMh#Ukraine #Crimea pic.twitter.com/nGuxprIcwE

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 29, 2023

Appears to have been a busy day in Crimea.

Bryansk, Russia:

Reports that a warehouse in Bryansk, Russia, storing Shahed drones (Russian name: Geran-2) has been hit. Locals report that at 18:12 local time explosions rocked the city.

Source: https://t.co/W0Zn8YqrOQ#Russia #Bryansk #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/nq8WbDOVjm

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 29, 2023

Preemptive air defense works!

Tatarigami has posted a new visual assessment at his new Front Intelligence site.

A brief summary of the current situation on the frontline in areas where Russian forces are attempting to develop offensive actions. For a more detailed version of this update, please visit the project's website linked in my bio.

Please do not forget to like, share, and follow pic.twitter.com/mLrQJ52aa8

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 29, 2023

Click through and give it a read.

The Financial Times has more on Russia’s winter bombardment strategy that I discussed above the jump:

Russia has built up a large stockpile of missiles and intends to use them in a bid to destroy Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure in the coming months, Nato’s secretary-general has warned.

With the front line largely frozen after Ukraine’s autumn counteroffensive failed to make significant gains, Kyiv has stepped up calls for more air defence supplies from its western allies as it girds for another winter bombardment.

“Russia has amassed a large missile stockpile ahead of winter, and we see new attempts to strike Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure, trying to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday.

“We must not underestimate Russia. Russia’s economy is on a war footing,” he said following a meeting of allied foreign ministers and their Ukrainian counterpart.

The warning from the head of the US-led military alliance, which Ukraine has applied to join, comes as EU countries and US lawmakers continue to squabble over respective new financial support packages for Kyiv proposed by Brussels and the White House, raising questions on the longevity of western backing as Russia’s invasion grinds on.

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said he saw “no sense of fatigue” among Nato members regarding support for Ukraine.

Russia is planning to spend Rbs10.8tn ($122bn) on defence next year, three times the amount allocated in 2021, the year before the invasion, and 70 per cent more than was planned for 2022, according to a bill on Russia’s budget that President Vladimir Putin signed on. The enormous sums in Russia’s record Rbs36.6tn budget for next year will take defence spending to 6 per cent of gross domestic product.

Arms manufacturers are working three shifts a day to meet the defence ministry’s orders. Several civilian factories have shifted to defence production, as well as some non-industrial sites including a bakery that now makes drones.

Putin told arms makers in September to “raise production capacity in the shortest possible time, keep facilities as busy as possible, optimise technological cycles, and cut down production time without lowering quality”.

Russia’s intelligence agencies have also stepped up their operations to import western dual-use technology — goods that have both potential civilian and military applications — for the defence industry.

The rush for parts has forced Russia to seek ways around western sanctions and export controls by smuggling western-made technology through third countries such as Turkey, according to western officials.

Despite Putin’s orders, Russia is not putting an emphasis on quality, accepting whatever parts arms manufacturers can get their hands on to increase missile production, western officials say — even if that makes them less accurate.

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official told the Financial Times that Russia was now receiving frequent shipments of munitions from Iran and North Korea, including Iranian one-way attack drones and North Korean artillery shells and rockets.

The artillery is arriving in quantities that will ensure Russian troops can at least continue fighting at a level consistent with the hostilities in recent months, while the drones are likely to be used along with long-range missiles in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure over the winter months.

Stoltenberg’s remarks come after Russia launched its biggest drone attack of the war on November 25, targeting Kyiv’s energy infrastructure and signalling what Ukrainian officials fear marked the start of a winter air campaign.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday said his country’s air defences have had a success rate of more than 90 per cent in intercepting Russian missiles and drones in the latest wave of attacks. But he said Kyiv still needed more help from the west to get through the tough winter ahead.

“There is a clear need to develop and reinforce our mobile firing groups, as well as to get all highly effective air defence systems [from western partners],” Zelenskyy said.

Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Ukraine’s chief of foreign intelligence, wrote in a rare public report on the war last week that Russia’s military had been weakened but that Putin had set his economy on a war footing, significantly increasing its arms production which is likely to continue at least until 2026.

“The Kremlin believes that it has enough resources for hostilities with Ukraine at the current level for a long period,” he said. “At the same time, Moscow is convinced that Ukraine’s internal resources are allegedly ‘approaching complete exhaustion’.”

Russia’s goals in Ukraine, to gain as much territory as possible, remain unchanged, he added. Going into winter, the conflict had now fully attained the “stage of a war of attrition”, Lytvynenko said.

More at the link.

At least someone’s economy is on a war footing.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Guess what it is? Hint: I was really looking forward to it 😍 pic.twitter.com/9CLvvYolbC

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 29, 2023

It is my first machine, and I’m so nervous to meet her. Any advice? What to tell? What present to give?

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 29, 2023

The Swiss demining machines have arrived!

Open thread!