Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

When I was faster i was always behind.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

A fool as well as an oath-breaker.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

All hail the time of the bunny!

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

People are complicated. Love is not.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

You are here: Home / Archives for Adam L Silverman

Adam L. Silverman is a consulting national security subject matter expert specializing in low intensity warfare (asymmetric, irregular, and unconventional warfare, revolution, insurgency, terrorism), civil affairs, psychological operations, and cultural considerations for strategy and policy.

He routinely provides operational support to a number of US Army, DOD, and other US Government elements. Dr. Silverman holds a doctorate in political science and criminology from the University of Florida, as well as masters' degrees in comparative religion and international security. Full professional bio available here: https://balloon-juice.com/adam-silverman-bio/

Adam Silverman has been a Balloon Juice writer since 2015.

War for Ukraine Day 1510: Putin Lashes Out

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Modified panel from the Tin Tin comics. Captain Haddock is sitting at the bar, Tin Tin's dog Snowy is to his left sniffing at the Captain's drink. Tin Tin is leaning in from Captain Haddock's right. Captain Haddock says "What a week, huh?" Tin Tin replies "Captain, it hasn't even started yet."

I got a booster shot vaccination yesterday and am having a low grade response. Nothing bad, I just feel a bit BLEH. So I’m going to just run through the basics tonight.

First, and we’ll deal with all of the damage after the jump, Putin hammered civilians and civilian targets in Dnipropetrovsk and other oblasts today. Right now – 4:00 AM local time in Ukraine/9:00 PM EDT – all of eastern and central Ukraine is under air raid alert. This should not be surprising. Every time Putin experiences a major geo-strategic or regional strategic setback he takes it out on Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets. He has experienced that setback this week in Hungary and Ukraine is now paying for it.

From 4:30 AM local time/9:30 PM EDT:

Russian drones over Kharkiv! Explosions and air defense is active ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 14, 2026 at 9:29 PM

Very close explosion! Fuck!

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 14, 2026 at 9:30 PM

Last night Bupalos commented:

Just dawning on me as I check in on the aftermath of the Hungarian election, how incredibly weird it was that they tried to make Zelenskyy into some kind of Goldstein character and paste his face all over Budapest. I mean, that is really really weird. And dictated probably more by Putin‘s particular needs and myopia than anything else. I think, and I think I’m hearing from people, that this simply didn’t fly. With hindsight, of course it didn’t. That had to look extremely transparent to a whole lot of people.

I mean at the least it makes you think OK there are some limits to what media saturation and media control can do. Not that it didn’t work on some people. but in retrospect just crazy that they would’ve tried that. That pasting Zelenskyy‘s face all over Budapest as an attempt to hold power. That’s a “jump the shark” move.

Orban has always run against an enemy other. And that enemy other is ALWAYS Jewish! For a long period of time it was Hungarian American George Soros. This strategy – othering Soros and both wink winking antisemitism and leaning hard into it – wasn’t originated by Orban. It was created by a pair of Jewish American political strategists that worked for the Republicans in the US and for Bibi Netanyahu and Likud in Israel. They actually created the Soros as enemy other political messaging campaign for Bibi. And it was Bibi that handed it off to Orban as he decided he would move to hard right neo-fascism and turn Hungary into an illiberal managed democracy. The Soros as enemy other has also become a mainstay of mainstream Republican political messaging, conservative movement messaging, and, of course, the Trump/MAGA movement messaging. More recently Trump, Vance, and other members of the Trump/MAGA movement that has taken over and remade both the Republican Party and the conservative movement have replaced Soros with President Zelenskyy as well, just like Orban and his Fidesz Party has done. Given that Trump and Vance are both antisemites, as is Hegseth, Bannon, and Russell Vought, as well as Musk and Thiel, this should not be surprising at all.

President Zelensky was on the road today, which is why there was no daily address. He went to Norway where he signed a declaration on enhanced security cooperation and secured the eventual provision of more F-16s for Ukraine.

🇳🇴 🇺🇦 Norway and Ukraine signed a declaration on enhanced defense and security cooperation.

Also discussed joint development of drones, industrial cooperation, and energy partnership.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 14, 2026 at 3:19 PM

🇳🇴 PM Støre: Norway donated six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Planes needed major repairs and preparations before integration into Ukrainian Air Force.

They’re being repaired and prepared by technicians in Belgium. First planes will soon be operational and delivered to Ukraine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 14, 2026 at 5:21 PM

President Zelenskyy and PM Støre held a joint press conference. Video below, with the English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s formal statement at the start of the presser after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,509: They Had to Sink the Moskva, the Terror of the Black Sea

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Today is the fourth anniversary of the Ukrainians sinking the Moskva.

The Ukrainian Navy has released a video marking the fourth anniversary of the destruction of the Russian cruiser Moskva.

Fearsome flagship no more 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 13, 2026 at 10:35 AM

Obligatory, though tangentially related:

This was originally recorded as part of the Bob’s Country Bunker scene, but it was cut and didn’t make it into the movie. From what I’ve read, the footage was not preserved, so all that exists is the audio.

Here’s Ukraine’s air defense tally from overnight:

It’s false or “Russian” ceasefire over, fascist Russia has resumed air attacks on Ukraine (the ground attacks never halted). A relatively small number of drones were launched overnight, but it’s likely that a large attack is coming, given the Kremlin’s habits.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 13, 2026 at 3:38 AM

President Zelenskyy attended Ukrainian arms maker day.

Zelenskyy alongside Ukrainian long‑range weaponry.

Based 😍🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 13, 2026 at 1:32 PM

Which is where he did today’s address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,508: Necessary But Not Sufficient

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There is good news out of Hungary tonight:

Hungarian opposition ousts Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power

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— The Guardian (@theguardian.com) April 12, 2026 at 7:25 PM

Tisza at 137 seats, 4 clear of a supermajority, with 2/3 of the constituency votes counted.

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— Leonardo Carella (@leonardocarella.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 3:46 PM

From The Guardian:

Hungary’s opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, has won the election, bringing an end to Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on power, in a result that is likely to rattle the White House and reshape the country’s relationship with the EU.

Less than three hours after polls closed on Sunday, Orbán conceded defeat after what he described as a “painful but unambiguous” election result.

“I congratulated the victorious party,” the rightwing populist told supporters in Budapest. “We are going to serve the Hungarian nation and our homeland from opposition as well.”

With 98.74% of the vote counted, Magyar’s Tisza party was projected to have won 138 of the 199 seats in the country’s parliament, giving them a super-majority capable of amending the constitution and key laws, suggesting they would be able to reverse some of the changes made by Orbán and Fidesz, and potentially unlock EU funds.

Fidesz won 55 seats, while the extreme-right Mi Hazánk party won six.

Magyar, who pledged to repair Hungary’s strained relationship with the EU, crack down on corruption and funnel funds towards long-neglected public services, said Tisza voters had rewritten Hungarian history.

“My fellow Hungarians, we have done it!,” he told the tens of thousands of jubilant supporters who had gathered along the banks of the Danube river to celebrate.

“Tonight, truth prevailed over lies,” said Magyar, 45. “Today, we won because Hungarians didn’t ask what their homeland could do for them – they asked what they could do for their homeland. You found the answer. And you followed through.”

Now allow me to harsh your mellows.

The election was the easy part.

Magyar and his supermajority are facing the following situation:

One foundation, Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) was handed $1.7 billion in government money and asset to train conservatives and create programming for primary and secondary education. Even if Orban loses elections, his loyalists will remain. Advisory board members appointed by Orban were given lifetime positions, and they are the only ones who can select new members. This is a basic form of cronyism, a bribe to retain power. Orban appointed Balazs Orban (no relation), to lead the MCC even as he served as state secretary in the prime minister’s office.

The Lesser Orban serves as an ambassador to far-right academics and think tanks, such as the Heritage Foundation.

All of the above type of appointments, whether political, judicial, educational, etc, will have to be deemed illegal & dismantled. Right now everything – government, politics, society, religion, education, the rule of law, the news media, the popular media, etc – in Hungary has been pushed hard to the hard right in service of keeping Orban in power or allowing him to subvert the Hungarian government and Hungarian society if he loses. What Magyar and his new government face is a matter of will X political power X time. Magyar’s victory speech was excellent, sounding just the right notes on accountability and demanding for all of Orban’s appointee, including the judicial ones, to resign immediately rather than wait to be fired. I expect the former will not happen and the latter will be contested. The issue for Magyar and his super majority will not be will or political power, it will be time. And time is not on his side as we saw with how Trump & his trusted aides, surrogates, & fellow travelers were able to subvert the American politics, society, news media, etc during the Biden interregnum and have worked diligently to both set the conditions to never lose power and to undermine and fail anyone who should remove them so as to come back to power as soon as possible.

Musk has already weighed in on Orban’s defeat in a highly antisemitic manner. Expect that he’ll be one of the ultra-high net worth individuals who will start picking up the tab for the attempt to fail Magyar’s government and to continue to subvert Hungary and use it to subvert the EU.

Just as was the case with Bibi when he temporarily was voted out of power, I will not be surprised if Orban is back in power within twelve to eighteen months.

As expected the Easter ceasefire is just a Kremlin PR operation.

The Ukrainian military says there were 2,299 ceasefire violations by Russia between 1600 yesterday and 0700 today – all in frontline areas. No strikes by missiles, guided aerial bombs, or “Shaheds” were recorded.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 3:47 AM

Fascist Russia simply shut down its air operations to give the illusion of a ceasefire – no drone on missile strikes on residential buildings, schools, hospitals, churches or critical civilian infrastructure, but attempts to gain positional advantages along the front.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 3:52 AM

❗️The Russian used the “Easter Truce” only in advantageous areas to improve their positions, – DeepState.

They used the silence to evacuate the wounded, bring in new ammunition or organize rotation.

The Russians are sending groups with white flags to carry out reinforcement measures.

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— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 4:35 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s Easter address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,507: The Easter Non-Ceasefire

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A black and white cartoon of Popeye's face/head. He is facing to the viewer's left. His right eye is squinted shut and his pipe is sticking out of the right side of his mouth. The speech bubble reads "I yam disgustipated".

Putin’s Easter ceasefire is less a ceasefire and more a marketing campaign.

❗️ After 16:00, 469 cases of ceasefire violations were recorded. Namely: 22 enemy assault actions, 153 shelling, 19 strikes by kamikaze drones (“Lancet”, “Molniya”) and 275 strikes by fpv drones

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 3:08 PM

During the declared Easter ceasefire, russian forces killed a Ukrainian evacuation team.

FPV drones were used, killing wounded Ukrainian soldiers — a war crime committed on the eve of Easter, under the cover of a so-called ceasefire.

📹DeepState

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 4:49 PM

This was in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Easter should be a time of safety and peace; Ukraine will mirror any violations and has proposed to Russia that the ceasefire continue, Zelensky says.

He adds Ukraine hopes to continue POW exchanges soon and is searching every name.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 1:57 PM

There was, however, a prisoner exchange today!

175 Ukrainians including seven civilian hostages are back home from the russian captivity within the Easter prisoners swap.

What a gift to all of us for this holy day.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 7:39 AM

🇺🇦 182 Ukrainians returned home from Russian captivity!

175 servicemen, as well as 7 civilians which were held in captivity by Russians since 2022, from the early days of the invasion.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 11:07 AM

The first moments after our defenders returned from captivity today. I live for such videos.

Welcome home, our dearest! 🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 9:36 AM

A Ukrainian mother learns that her captured son has been released in today’s prisoner exchange, just in time for Easter tomorrow.

No translation needed. 🫂

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 1:43 PM

Ukrainians greet defenders returning home after release from russian captivity. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Most of them were captured in 2022 and spent years in hell. I’m so happy they’re reuniting with their families this Easter!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2026 at 9:44 AM

More on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,506: A Brief Friday Night Update

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A black and white cartoon of Popeye's face/head. He is facing to the viewer's left. His right eye is squinted shut and his pipe is sticking out of the right side of his mouth. The speech bubble reads "I yam disgustipated".

It was a long week and despite sneaking in a nap, I’m fried. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

Just a quick note before we start. You may have seen the new Iranian PSYOP video. One of these reasons these are so good is that the Russians are helping the Iranians. And as we’ve discussed here repeatedly for the past eleven years, the Russians have spent a lot of time mapping out American societal cleavages. The social, political, economic, religious, demographic, generational, sex and gendered, regional, and other disputes, disagreements, and conflicts that are warp and weft of a state and society with 342 million people. Russia did this for its own purposes. First to set the theater of conflict through the information environment, then to run actual influence operations through it. What Iran is doing, right down to the conflation of Israel with Judaism in today’s video, is being done because it advances Russia’s own strategic objectives. So it shouldn’t be surprising that these are well done or that they lean into not just anti-Israel sentiment among Americans, which we know from recent polling is at an all time high, but antisemitism.

🇺🇦 Today we honor the memory of the heroes who gave their lives to liberate Odesa from the Nazi invaders, and the heroic deeds of those who restored the city’s freedom!
🕯️ We remember. We honor. We will never forget.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 8:21 AM

⚔️🇺🇦 82 years ago, Odesa was liberated from Nazi occupiers.
After 907 days of hardship, pain, and struggle, the city came back to life.
Today, this date holds special significance. It reminds us of strength, resilience, and the price of freedom.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 8:21 AM

🚀🦅💥 Chronicle of alarms in Russia: 09.04 – 10.04, – DroneBomber

🔴Volgograd Oil Refinery;

🔴Tinguta GPS;

🔴 UMMIX company capacities;

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 8:37 AM

🔥 Map of recorded medium-strike UAV strikes in the occupied territories of Ukraine in March, – Oko Gora

94 recorded attacks, including:

🟢Air Defense – 28;
🟢Radars – 14
🟢Headquarters/Command Posts – 12;
🟢Oil Depots/Fuel and Lubricant Supplies – 11;

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 5:10 PM

🟢Logistics Warehouses – 8;
🟢Ammo Warehouses – 6;
🟢Electronic Warfare – 4;
🟢OTRK – 3;
🟢Sea Transport – 2;
🟢Airfield – 2;
🟢Military Industrial Complex – 1;
🟢UAV warehouse – 1.

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 5:10 PM

💔🇺🇦 In March, the number of civilians killed and injured in Ukraine increased by 49% compared to February, – UN

According to their data, at least 211 people were killed, another 1,206 were injured, most of them from short-range drone attacks.

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 4:04 PM

President Zelenskyy did not give an address today. He did sit for an interview yesterdat. Here’s the video:

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War for Ukraine Day 1,506: A Brief Friday Night UpdatePost + Comments (11)

War for Ukraine Day 1,505: Because It’s Thursday!

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It was a long day today as I had an early start. Nothing bad, just A LOT of Thursday. So I’m just going to run through the basics so I can get the grime off and rack out.

Putin refused when Zelenskyy proposed a truce, but later announced one himself. For just a little longer than a day. Wow, how generous.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 9, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Zelensky responded to the Kremlin’s statement about the “Easter truce”.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 9, 2026 at 5:21 PM

I can’t unsee it.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 8, 2026 at 6:21 PM

‼️Right after Israel’s pager attack on Hezbollah in 2024, Hungary offered help and evidence to Iran in their investigation.

That’s despite Orban being an ally of both Trump and Netanyahu, who would likely see this as a betrayal.

3 days left. Booked your ticket to Moscow yet?🛫

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) April 9, 2026 at 2:39 AM

Orban–russian collusion is no surprise to anyone following EU–Ukraine relations. But the leaks exposed the depth of the servitude of the sovereign government to the aggressor committing genocide right next door. This is so embarrassing.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) April 9, 2026 at 10:56 AM

There has long been RUMINT that Orban has a home, whether an estate or a dacha, that Putin got for him in Russia. I expect that LTG Budanov’s merry band of mirth makers knows not just if that is true, but where it is. And should Orban decide to relocate there, I expect it will go boom.

President Zelenskyy held a press conference today. Here’s the video. It’s autodubbed in English.

And here is his daily address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,504: We Are Clean on OPSEC!!!!

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A picture of Daniel Craig hosting Saturday Night Live. He's wearing a black or navy blue polo shirt and facing the viewer. Above is head are the words "Ladies and Gentlement" below his head are the words "It's Only Fucking Wednesday"

Maybe, just maybe, this is not the thing you want to be putting out their on your podcast or VLOG or whatever:

PROF. LUCAS: I was interviewing Ukrainian media friends last week and one of them said, “Yeah, we’ve got the Baltics to thank.” Tip-off was clear: intelligence for Ukrainian strikes on Russian Baltic ports may not be coming from Americans — it may be coming from Baltic states.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 8, 2026 at 12:38 PM

A meme of COL Hogan, COL Klink, and Sergeant Schultz from Hogan's Heroes triple face palming in Klink's office. The caption says" Triple facepalm: For when a double facepalm is just not enough to describe the epic fail..."

Here are some of tonight’s outgoing Ukrainian fires:

HERE WE GO ✊✊✊ DroneBomber

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 8, 2026 at 3:37 PM

Doctor Science asked this follow on question last night in comments:

Thank you, Adam, I was thinking of that paper specifically when I asked. Do you think MBS & his  military advisors don’t know that or have some rosy fantasy that lets them dismiss advice like yours, or does he actually have some rational strategic goal? What SHOULD his strategic goal be, in your expert opinion?

MBS is a pampered, self absorbed psychopath. He has no military experience and everyone around him either agrees with him or they don’t live long. Quite frankly I have long argued that we should drop the sanctions with Iran. Let Iranian-Americans and other Americans visit. Let them go, see their families, see the heritage sites, spend dollars. Do person to person cultural exchanges. That’ll do more to undermine the Supreme Religious Authority than anything else. When you keep Iran, or Cuba as same dynamic, in isolation you help their authoritarian regimes as much if not more than you think you’re hurting them. Maybe it doesn’t work, but it can’t not work any less than what we’ve been doing for 47 years in the case of Iran and about 70 years in the case of Cuba.

And YY_Sima Qian asked:

So, do you think it was bad reporting that MBS & MBZ were egging Trump to “finish the job”, or was it a case or MBS & MBZ wanting to fight Iran to the last American & Israeli, & then try to advance their interests whatever happens? Do they not understand how fragile their economies are if their oil exports & refining are disrupted, which Iran is clearly capable of doing?

I think the reporting is accurate. I think both MBS and MBZ recognize how bad a wounded angry, but still able to fight Iran is for themselves and their infrastructure. Which is why now that the US and Israel have kicked the hornets nest they want it removed completely. Which is not going to happen.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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