Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

T R E 4 5 O N

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

You cannot shame the shameless.

No one could have predicted…

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

He really is that stupid.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Wednesday / Thursday, April 28-29

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Wednesday / Thursday, April 28-29

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TV-sales-pitch voiceover: People are literally paying money, and not even getting what they need! But for a limited time only, these valuable gifts can be yours, absolutely FREE! Don’t wait, call for an appointment now, or walk into your local provider, while supplies last!

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On the question of why there is so much talk of ‘undercounting’ Indian fatalities (from a typically excellent interview, well worth reading in full):

… How have you and other people in your field been able to get a sense of the scale of the problem in India right now, given that we know official statistics are dramatically understating what is going on?
The most useful thing was being able to come into the pandemic with some prior understanding of how statistics function in India, and to know what the existing issues were. So, for example, we came in knowing that official statistics massively underreport all infectious diseases, such as malaria, and we got used to turning to other data sets that give us a better sense of underreporting. For infectious diseases, we know official statistics only capture reported data from public health facilities, which means that the whole world of private health [facility] data is left out. We have gotten used to turning to other sources that come up with estimates, such as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (I.H.M.E.).

And we had some sense of how deaths are reported in India. The lack of state capacity means that a lot of things the state wants to deliver cannot be delivered, so we know both births and deaths are underregistered in India. We have a sense of how much trouble there is to correctly assess the cause of death. And we know that this is a bigger problem for marginalized groups and women, who are more likely to be underrepresented in death statistics. So we came in knowing that even in the best of times, the statistical architecture, and the administrative architecture, struggles to register everyone properly…

We have official statistics about cases and deaths, and then other reports with unofficial estimates. What are you actually able to say about what we know?
Although there are official guidelines about what should be counted as a COVID-19 death, we know on record from officials in multiple states that those guidelines are not being followed. A very stringent definition of what is a COVID-19 death—a person testing positive prior to death—is being used, which leaves out the world of people who couldn’t get a test in time, or couldn’t make it to the hospital. So we know this is happening, but estimating the extent of that would be very useful. I have tried to make requests to state audit committees to ask about how many death certificates came to them, and how many were COVID-19 deaths. But that is not known and it’s a big problem, and there should be public pressure for it…

So when you see analysis, like the one in the Financial Times looking at crematoria data, it seems fair to say that COVID is causing a vast surge in deaths in India, but we don’t know exactly how many of them were caused by the coronavirus infecting the person, correct?
Yes. And, again, it is likely that COVID infections are causing a massive uptick in death. I think the one indicator that says a lot is hospitalizations. The fact that those are up across every big city and in every part of the country where we have information indicates that, even if you are not able to quantify the extent of underreporting, health systems are overwhelmed. All of the small factors that, added up, tell us about underreporting are clear…

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Reader Interactions

26Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY stats:

    206 new cases
    4326 active cases
    1244 deaths
    2.9% test positivity
    215 people hospitalized, 46 people in the ICU

    48.9% with at least 1 vaccination

    36.7% totally vaccinated

    From Cuomo’s email yesterday:

    5. Erie County is partnering with local breweries to help distribute the COVID-19 vaccines. As part of the “Shot and Chaser” program, participating breweries will set up pop-up vaccination clinics and adults age 21 and up can stop by for a vaccine and receive a beer on the house. The program also applies for the second shot. So far, Resurgence and Flying Bison brewing companies in South Buffalo have agreed to join the effort.

  4. 4.

    mrmoshpotato

    @NeenerNeener:

    As part of the “Shot and Chaser” program, participating breweries will set up pop-up vaccination clinics and adults age 21 and up can stop by for a vaccine and receive a beer on the house. 

    On the same day?  Wouldn’t it be better for masked people to get fully vaccinated then come back 2 weeks later for a couple free brews?

  6. 6.

    Nicole

    @mrmoshpotato: There’s no indication alcohol affects the vaccine’s efficacy.  A lot of doctors recommend against drinking after the shot but it’s because since the shot can make you feel like crap, a hangover on top of that just adds to the misery.

  7. 7.

    lowtechcyclist

    @NeenerNeener: ​
     

    Whatever gets them in the door to get at least the 1st shot.

    This. Even if they never get the second shot, the UK has shown that getting that first shot to as many people as possible drastically reduces the spread of the virus.

    And of course, once they’ve gotten the first shot, there’s a decent chance they’ll be back for the second one.

  9. 9.

    JPL

    @schrodingers_cat: CNN is doing a segment now on the dire conditions in India.  The reporter in India has to be affected.  Just so sad, and I’m so sorry that your family is suffering.

  10. 10.

    Lavocat

    For the first time in a long time, I am so proud of my president. That speech last night KICKED ASS! And, yes, in this household, we are all FULLY vaccinated. YAY!

    I want to stop living that ancient Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times.” I like boring. Boring is good. Boring is survivable.

  11. 11.

    Robert Sneddon

    I got my second vaccination (AstraZeneca) yesterday here in Edinburgh, Scotland. Little or no reaction, just a sore arm and a restless night due to the discomfort. My first vaccination was eleven weeks ago and that knocked me out for a day and a half.
    The Scottish health services are concentrating on catch-up second vaccinations right now but they still plan to offer vaccinations to all over-16s by the end of July.
    The UK government has just announced it’s ordering another 60 million doses of Pfizer vaccine for a booster vaccination program in the autumn, details to be announced later. Prime Minister (for the moment) Johnson is warning of a possible third wave of infections later this year even with a large part of the population vaccinated. This opinion is probably based on scientific advice that variants of the initial coronavirus will be less susceptible to antibodies generated by the first series of vaccines. We’ll see.​​

  12. 12.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 4/28 China reported 0 new domestic confirmed & 0 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered, at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. There are currently 41 domestic confirmed & 11 domestic asymptomatic cases in Yunnan Province. 2 communities remain at High Risk & 1 community remains at Medium Risk.

    Imported Cases

    On 4/28 China reported 20 new imported confirmed cases, 14 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:

    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 11 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 10 coming from India & 1 from Indonesia; 1 asymptomatic case, coming from India 
    • Shanghai Municipality – 5 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Guinea (via Paris CdG), & 1 each from Burkina Faso (via Paris CdG), the UAE & Spain; 1 suspect case, no information released
    • Taiyuan in Shaanxi Province – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Poland
    • Wuhan in Hubei Province – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Pakistan
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from Iraq; 3 asymptomatic cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Iraq & 1 from the DRC; all off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 5 asymptomatic cases, 2 Chinese nationals each returning from Qatar (via Colombo) & Malaysia & 1 from Cambodia
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese nantional returning from Indonesia
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Ghana (via Amsterdam Schiphol)
    • Nanjing in Jiangsu Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released 
    • Tianjin Municipality – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released, yet

     

    Overall in China, 13 confirmed cases recovered, 11 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation & 1 was reclassified as confirmed case, and 1,704 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 324 active confirmed cases in the country (282 imported), 3 in critical/serious condition (all imported), 329 asymptomatic cases (318 imported), 7 suspect cases (all imported). 6,633 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 4/28, 243.905M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.929M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 4/29, Hong Kong reported 15 new cases, all imported.

  13. 13.

    Sloane Ranger

    Wedensday in the UK we had 2166 new cases. This is a decrease of 6.6% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,

    England – 1829 (down 581)

    Northern Ireland – 98 (down 11)

    Scotland – 204 (up 71)

    Wales – 35 (up 2).

    Deaths – There were 29 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. This is a decrease of 8.9% in the rolling 7-day average. Deaths by nation, England – 27, Northern ireland – 1, Scotland – 1 and Wales – 0.

    Testing – 730,262 tests were conducted on Tuesday, 27 April. This is an increase of 2.7% in the rolling 7-day average. The estimated testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 660,932.

    Hospitalisations – On Monday, 26 April there were 1634 people in hospital and 227 people on ventilators. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions on 24 April was down by 19.3%.

    Vaccinations – As of 27 April, a total of 33,959,908 people had received the 1st shot of a vaccine and 13,581,076 had received both. In percentage terms this means that 64.5% of all adults in the UK have had 1 jab and 25.8% have had both.

  14. 14.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Director-General of Heath Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah reports 3,332 new Covid-19 cases today in his media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 404,925 cases. He also reports 15 new deaths today, for a cumulative total of 1,492 deaths — 0.37% of the cumulative reported total, 0.40% of resolved cases.

    There are currently 28,093 active and contagious cases; 308 are in ICU, 147 of them intubated. Meanwhile, 1,943 patients recovered and were discharged, for a cumulative total of 375,340 patients recovered – 92.69% of the cumulative reported total.

    12 new clusters were reported today: Bukit Rotan, Jalan RP Tiga, and Jalan Tigabelas-Tiga in Selangor; Sileng Dayak and Tabuan Jaya in Sarawak; Kampung Pemanok and Batu Lada in Kelantan; Raub Jaya in Pahang; Jalan Abdul Rahman Andak and Kampung Parit Bunga in Johor; and Jalan Adika Raja and Jalan Pokok Assam in Perak.

    Bukit Rotan, Sileng Dayak, Kampung Pemanok, and Raub Jaya are community clusters. Tabuan Jaya, Batu Lada, and Jalan Abdul Rahman Andak are education clusters at Ministry of Education schools. Jalan RP Tiga, Jalan Tigabelas-Tiga, and Jalan Adika Raja are workplace clusters. Jalan Kampung Parit Bunga and Jalan Pokok Assam are religious clusters.

    3,323 new cases today are local infections. Selangor reports 1,083 cases: 28 in older clusters; eight in Bukit Rotan, Jalan RP Tiga, and Jalan Tiga Belas-Tiga clusters; 705 close-contact screenings; and 342 other screenings. Sarawak reports 522 cases: 34 in older clusters, 14 in Sileng Dayak and Tabuan Jaya clusters, 705 close-contact screenings, and 342 other screenings. Kelantan reports 401 cases: 83 in older clusters, 16 in Batu Lada and Kampung Pemanok clusters, 233 close-contact screenings, and 69 other screenings.

    Kuala Lumpur reports 350 local cases: four in existing clusters, 205 close-contact screenings, and 141 other screenings. Johor reports 207 cases: 24 in older clusters, 16 in Batu Lada and Kampung Pemanok clusters, 132 close-contact screenings, and 35 other screenings.

    Penang reports 158 cases: 30 in existing clusters, 60 close-contact screenings, and 68 other screenings. Sabah reports 131 cases; 42 in existing clusters, 71 close-contact screenings, and 18 other screenings. Negeri Sembilan reports 111 cases: 63 in existing clusters, 29 close-contact screenings, and 19 other screenings. Kedah reports 105 cases: 48 in existing clusters, 40 close-contact screenings, and 17 other screenings.

    Pahang reports 92 cases: five in older clusters, 38 in Raub Jaya cluster, 36 close-contact screenings, and 13 other screenings. Perak reports 91 cases: three in older clusters, 34 in Jalan Adika Raja and Jalan Pokok Assam clusters, 37 close-contact screenings, and 17 other screenings. Melaka reports 43 cases: 10 in existing clusters, 19 close-contact screenings, and 14 other screenings.

    Terengganu reports 19 cases: eight in existing clusters, three close-contact screenings, and eight other screenings. Putrajaya reports nine cases: eight close-contact screenings, and one other screening. And Perlis reports one case, in an existing cluster.

    Labuan reports no new cases today.

    Nine new cases today are imported, all in Kuala Lumpur.

    The deaths reported today are a 75-year-old woman in Johor with diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and heart disease; a 56-year-old man in Kelantan with diabetes and dyslipidaemia; a 46-year-old woman in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease; a 71-year-old woman in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, heart disease, and stroke; a 70-year-old woman in Kelantan with diabetes and hypertension; a 72-year-old man in Kelantan with diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, heart disease, and lung cancer; a 47-year-old woman in Sarawak with diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia; a 91-year-old man in Selangor with hypertension and heart disease; a 75-year-old man in Kuala Lumpur with diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia; a 73-year-old man in Kuala Lumpur with hypertension, dyslipidaemia, heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; a 49-year-old man in Kuala Lumpur, DOA with no co-morbidities listed; a 47-year-old woman in Kuala Lumpur, DOA with no co-morbidities listed; a 91-year-old woman in Sarawak, DOA with hypertension and stroke; an 82-year-old woman in Kelantan with hypertension; and a 26-year-old woman in Sabah with no co-morbidities listed.

  15. 15.

    Cermet

    @schrodingers_cat: Didn’t see your post but I hope you and all family members get through this. I am very sorry if this terrible illness has touched you as well. For me, a family member’s uncle died from covid and he was a professor at Johns Hopkins University Medical school. This is a horrible virus.

  16. 16.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    I was reading an opinion piece by a British historian who says the UK press keeps on trying to compare Covid to the Blitz or Henry VIII split with Rome because that’s the only two things about British history most Brits know.  That idiotic DeMint tweet is a case in point; Spanish Flue shows that given enough time the virus will mutate into a strain the targets the young and healthy. I suppose a Republican these days by definition is someone who watches Ancient Aliens so things it’s all scientificy think all things are a conspiracy by shape shifting lizard people.

  17. 17.

    Falling Diphthong

    For months, the reporting on the vaccines has been how hard they are to get–how you’d better be computer savvy, have 8 hours to spend online trying to snag a fleeting appointment, be willing to drive anywhere. It would really help if a) vaccines became available to walk-ins at your pharmacy where you’re used to going for medical stuff, including flu vaccines; b) this was widely disseminated in the media: “It’s easy now! Just walk into Walgreens!”

    Also, it would really help if the message around “What can I do once I’m vaccinated” was more like “When 70% of adults are vaccinated and new cases have fallen for 3 straight weeks, then we can dial the strictures way back.” Rather than suggesting that you can do one or two more small things than the stubbornly unvaccinated, who are ignoring the list and doing a pile of stuff. People got through a year of tight strictures on the promise that vaccines would be the way out–they are not happy to be told that we have vaccines, they are incredibly effective, and you should get vaccinated and then… change nothing about what you’re doing. The messaging on this has been really awful–confusing, contradictory, assumes no one can handle nuance (like “we need cases to hit this concrete level” rather than “not yet”), and plays right into the message “This is all a trick so that they can make this kind of control permanent” that we all so diligently poo-poo’ed.

  18. 18.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Falling Diphthong: People got through a year of tight strictures on the promise that vaccines would be the way out–they are not happy to be told that we have vaccines, they are incredibly effective, and you should get vaccinated and then… change nothing about what you’re doing. The messaging on this has been really awful–confusing, contradictory, assumes no one can handle nuance (like “we need cases to hit this concrete level” rather than “not yet”), and plays right into the message “This is all a trick so that they can make this kind of control permanent” that we all so diligently poo-poo’ed.

    Right now about a thousand people a day are dying in America from COVID-19 with tens of thousands of new cases reported every day. Sure there’s a lot of people getting vaccinated, a lot of folks who are now mostly immune to some of the current variants of this disease but until this virus and its vile offsprings are backed into a corner I’d suggest taking the best advice out there which is the same — stay at home if you can, maintain distance, don’t travel uneccessarily, don’t socialise with others outside your family etc. Masks, meh. This applies to vaccinated people just as much as anyone who hasn’t yet been vaccinated or can’t get vaccinated for medical reasons.

  19. 19.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — there were 178 new cases of COVID-19 reported yesterday with 5 deaths. The test positivity rate is 0.8%. About 48,000 vaccinations were carried out yesterday, mostly second doses — all approved vaccines here in the UK are two-dose formulations. Scotland’s population is about 5.5 million, multiply case numbers, deaths and vaccinations by 60 to get a per-capita comparison between here and the US.

    We have Scottish government elections coming up in a week’s time which will be held under level 3 restrictions on face-to-face meetings, unnecessary travel etc. The planned drop to level 2 (sports stadiums etc. fully open) should happen on the 17th of May assuming all goes well.

  20. 20.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Falling Diphthong:

    I’ve been frustrated by the lack of messaging about how the effect of the vaccine is collective, that vaccination will get the amount of virus down and then we can do all this stuff.

    A big part of the messaging problem is that until recently, the authorities avoided saying that the vaccines would reduce virus transmission because the scientific data to support that wasn’t there yet. But now it is. But a lot of people absorbed from that early reluctance the (wrong) idea that the vaccine doesn’t reduce transmission at all and only prevents COVID symptoms. That reinforces the idea among young people that they’re at low personal risk anyway, so why should they bother?

  21. 21.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Falling Diphthong: …Since my city is pretty much a COVID disaster area, we set up public clinics around town for residents only, and pretty much every day now they end up underbooked and soliciting walk-ins. But it seems like they’re under-publicized. Even the mayor’s robocall on the subject put them third on the list after the state mass-vaccination sites and the pharmacies. I’ve been doing what I can to beat the drum. I’m wondering if they should start just opening the clinics up to everybody, not bother checking residence (the neighboring towns are hard-hit too).

  22. 22.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Matt McIrvin:

     

    A big part of the messaging problem is that until recently, the authorities avoided saying that the vaccines would reduce virus transmission because the scientific data to support that wasn’t there yet. But now it is. But a lot of people absorbed from that early reluctance the (wrong) idea that the vaccine doesn’t reduce transmission at all and only prevents COVID symptoms.

    What happens when the Dumbfuck Nebraska variant of COVID-19 breaks out and current vaccines are poor at preventing its spread, its infection rate and the illnesses it creates? Do the scientists turn around and say “Oops, we were wrong about vaccines totally preventing the spread of infection, let’s go back yet again to all the things we did the first few times around to try and keep most people alive and out of hospital beds”? Will you listen to them the next time after that happens?

    Vaccines won’t stop this disease. They will vastly reduce its spread, hopefully getting the case numbers way down so new variants don’t appear faster than we come up with new vaccines and treatments. Every new case of COVID-19, EVERY ONE is a possible source for a new more transmissable variant of COVID-19. All the worrying COVID-19 variants you read about in the news, The South African or Kent variant and all the rest, they originated with a single mutated virus particle created in a single person’s infected cells and then they spread out from there. It’s evolution in action, happening every day.

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Robert Sneddon:

    Vaccines won’t stop this disease.

    You don’t actually know that. Mass vaccination DID stop a lot of other diseases–eradication is very rare, we did it to smallpox, but they do keep outbreaks of things like measles and mumps, some of which have fantastically higher R0 values than COVID, way down.

    It’s a question of how much mass vaccination knocks down the R value for whatever mutants are currently circulating. There’s no solid evidence yet that any of the existing ones just cuts through vaccine-induced resistance like it wasn’t there at all. Some of them probably do escape it enough to significantly affect the reduction in R.

    I don’t particularly want people to let up on other control measures and it pisses me off that my state governor reflexively reopens stuff at the slightest sign of easing. Mostly, though, I want people to get vaccinated, because that’s probably at least as big a win as closing the restaurants and bars. I figure that fighting dumb misinformation about the vaccines is the best thing I can do at this point.

    I particularly don’t understand movements like #ZeroCovid that seem to be actively talking down vaccination because they’re afraid it will make people complacent, or something.

  24. 24.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Matt McIrvin: The COVID-19 coronavirus and its variants appear to be two-way transmissable between humans and animal hosts. That means that even if it is eradicated in humans by vaccination and other prophylactic measures it can still make a comeback into the human population from the wild, from pets or zoos or other sources.

     

    Smallpox and polio and a few, a very few other diseases only have/had human hosts (simplifying wildly here) so eradication is possible if everyone can get vaccinated — even if the vaccine was not 100% effective the disease could be limited in its spread. At some point in the recent past the last smallpox virus in the wild could not find a viable host to replicate in and that was it, the brutal deliberate genocide of an entire species and a great cause for celebration. Polio is on the ropes, it only has a few localised holdouts around the world but some day, some day…

     

    Coronaviruses including COVID-19 will be with us for a long time. Pretending there will be a V-C Day, victory over COVID-19 is not something the “bad at messaging” experts are willing to say. They’re even less willing to tell people vaccination will fix everything because they know it won’t. This annoys a lot of people because they want it to be true and they want the experts to agree with them.

  25. 25.

    bluefoot

    The situation in India is tragic. In addition to vaccines, is the US sending treatments for those already infected? Dexamethasone, oxygen/oxygen concentrators, antibody treatments, etc. Does India need PPE? I haven’t seen much in the news except for vaccines.

    Does anyone have recommendations of relief/aid organizations to help India?

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Matt McIrvin: 

    Being fully vaccinated against Covid, doesn’t mean that you can’t get Covid, spread Covid, be hospitalized, or die.

    Being fully vaccinated means that you have a , ( rough current numbers, where known), lower chance of getting infected, a 50% chance of not spreading Covid if infected, and a 92% to 95% of not requiring hospitalization or dying, if infected.

    Covid is a very “elegant” virus. Unfortunately, 50% of the population is of below average intelligence, and we all know people of “average” intelligence, so much of the messaging on Covid is trying to keep those people doing the right things to stop the spread.

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