I always like to pair the I Got a Shot! threads with something else, so today it’s foreign policy.
Bibi can’t believe they actually ousted him. Hmm, who does that remind me of?
No doubt Cheryl will want to put up a post with more perspective than I can provide in terms of the implications of what is being announced with regard to Ukraine, but in the meantime, here’s a thread to talk about Ukraine and anything else newsworthy from Biden’s trip.
President Biden says #Ukraine needs to meet the requirements to get into #NATO, but in the meantime the US will do all it can to help Kiev “get in position” to qualify for membership. pic.twitter.com/MvgFCMSnRH
— Teri Schultz (@terischultz) June 14, 2021
Fast forward to 1:38 for the start of the press conference.
zhena gogolia
Biden’s press conference was great, judging from Aaron Rupar clips
ETA: My understanding is there isn’t really any big change with regard to Ukraine.
Betty Cracker
This isn’t about Ukraine, but Biden responded to a question about allies being nervous:
Sure hope he knows something about their “vastly diminished numbers” that we don’t!
Also:
Baud
I can’t find this Ukraine news people are talking about. What happened?
Belafon
Ukraine: it was news and then it wasn’t.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
GOP: The “G” stands for gallstone.
zhena gogolia
I love his attitude.
Old School
Teri Schultz
@terischultz
President Biden says #Ukraine needs to meet the requirements to get into #NATO, but in the meantime the US will do all it can to help Kiev “get in position” to qualify for membership.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Zelensky or somebody tweeted something that made it sound as if there’d been a big change, but it’s just an affirmation of something that was said by NATO long ago. I don’t know the details.
Elizabelle
Here’s C-Span of Biden’s NATO press conference. It is almost 26 minutes.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?512419-1/president-biden-holds-nato-news-conference&live
Elizabelle
@zhena gogolia: Yes. It was wonderful to hear that in real time.
A significant minority of Americans. We can outwork them and outlast them. We have to.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia:
Biden: “I think it’s appropriate to say the Republican Party is vastly diminished
in numbersin stature.I fixed that for him.
MattF
@Baud: You… probably mean kidney stone. Gallstones form in the gallbladder and if one ‘passed’ it would be like that scene from ‘Alien’.
zhena gogolia
@MattF: So in other words the metaphor works (with regard to the GOP “passing”).
Gary K
Addressed to Cheryl, if she’s reading these comments: Please explain the current situation in Crimea. It has been annexed for 7 years now. Is there any prospect that the US, the UN, or NATO will actually get this reversed? How does this affect Ukraine’s proposal to join NATO?
Major Major Major Major
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Bibi!
Open thread? Have a feeling it’s going to be a really blah week. My ticket at work right now is updating vulnerable dependencies for a big application suite, which is suuuuucking but whatever. It’s giving my mind some free time, though, which is good because I have to work on some stuff for the tabletop RPG I’m running. (We’re playing Monster Of The Week, which is designed for games that resemble… monster of the week TV shows, and is quite fun.)
Baud
@MattF:
And you think this is different from dealing with Republicans how?
Martin
They are vastly diminished. But the venn diagram of ‘too small to carry a national election’ and ‘large enough to be a violent threat when realizing they are too small to carry a national election’ is oddly shaped exactly like the Confederacy.
We’ve been here before. Didn’t go well last time. Hopefully this will go better.
Benw
@Baud: Ukrain’t always get what u want
WaterGirl
@Martin: I wanted to let you know that I sent you email this morning because I’m not sure if that is an account you check regularly.
Elizabelle
A WaPost reader comment, on today’s Michael Gerson column.
Ken
Kolchak: The Night Stalker was one of my favorites, but I recently caught some episodes and it hasn’t held up well. Although, I am still a bit perturbed by the monster in “Horror in the Heights” — the one that looks like the person you trust most…
gvg
@zhena gogolia:
I dunno, after Russia invades, it seemed to me like NATO and the EU got kind of spooked and weren’t really willing to help Ukraine. Saying we would help them get ready publicly again seems pretty significant to me.
zhena gogolia
@gvg: It was being reported as Ukraine joining NATO, and it isn’t quite that.
MattF
@zhena gogolia: Reiteration of a 2008 NATO statement.
Kent
Russia has a GDP of $1.7 trillion which is smaller than the state of Texas and nearly half that of the UK.
The combined economic might of the US, EU, and Britain is as follows
US: $29.4 trillion GDP
EU: $15.2 trillion GDP
UK: 2.8 trillion GDP
Total: $47.4 trillion GDP
In terms of percentages, Russia has a GDP that is only 3.5% that of the US and EU/UK. About all they produce that the rest of the world wants is oil, diamonds, grain, and weapons. And those are all easily replaceable commodities with zero added value. They are shipping their wealth to London, New York, Malta, Switzerland, and other secretive tax havens as fast as they can generate or steal it.
Yes they have nuclear weapons. But so does Pakistan and North Korea. Remind me again why we let them set the agenda on any issue of international interest? Oh yes….they owned Trump. But besides from that I can’t think of anything.
We should be treating them with about as much respect and deference as we treat Pakistan.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Old School: No no no no no.
That’s a legit bad idea. It extends a security guarantee that cannot be guaranteed without the possibility of a society scorching event.
zhena gogolia
@Kent: They are also a big threat to their immediate neighbors.
Obvious Russian Troll
@MattF: You can pass gallstones, if they’re small enough. It’s not typically a good thing, admittedly, since they can get stuck in the bile ducts and cause all kinds of problems there.
Gin & Tonic
To answer some questions about Ukraine without doing too many reply links, and no, I’m not Cheryl.
There is less to this than meets the eye. This is basically a restatement of current US policy.
The Crimean situation is a problem, yes, but in terms of armed conflict, the Donbas situation is worse. I’m sure NATO doesn’t have an appetite for admitting a country that is under continuous armed attack by one of its neighbors. No, neither the US nor the UN can force Putin to de-annex Crimea. But eventually Crimeans will get pretty thirsty. Will this change the status quo? Probably not. Actually, a lot of Ukrainians will not say so publicly, but are perfectly OK with letting Russia have it.
I wish professional journalists would learn to spell “Kyiv” as the Ukrainian government officially requests.
Kent
@zhena gogolia: Only because the west allows it. Watch how fast they would squeal if the combined wealth of the Russian oligarchy held in western banks was frozen due to sanctions.
sab
@zhena gogolia: I thought NATO rules don’t allow countries to join if they are having current territorial disputes with a neighbor. So by NATO rules no way can Ukraine join NATO now.
PJ
@Gin & Tonic: I read somewhere that states cannot be admitted to NATO if they are currently involved in armed conflict involving their territory. Don’t know how accurate that is, but it would make a lot of sense, and would prevent Ukraine being admitted until the Donbass and Crimea situations are resolved.
zhena gogolia
Really good piece by David Rothkopf here. I’m particularly interested by what he says about Harris.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/heres-what-bidens-team-expects-from-his-meeting-with-putin
Gin & Tonic
Here is Zelensky’s Tweet, for those interested:
ETA: “MAP” is a Membership Action Plan, which does not currently exist.
NotMax
@Major Major Major Major
Next week: packs of zombie vampire French poodles!
:)
Sidebar: For RPG nostalgia buffs.
Mike in NC
There’s also that guy in south Florida who has been laundering money for the oligarchs for years.
Geminid
@Gary K: I know you are not asking me this question. But I would point out that if the Russiaians did not willingly cede Crimea to Ukraine, expelling them by force would be a very large and very costly task. Joe Biden wouldn’t start this war even if our Nato allies wanted it, which they don’t.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I have a question about TFG. I saw a pic of him in NY today. Do I understand correctly that he’s still living in Florida? Because a while back there were stories that he was moving to NJ in early May. Is there some rationale for where he is?
Martin
@WaterGirl: Ah, thanks. I got it. I’ll get back to you soon.
Dan B
@Kent: Russia has much of Europe in a vise grip because they control natural gas and want to add another pipeline. The solution is to increase other energy sources, especially renewable energy, storage, and distribution. Shell, BP, and Total probably need to be dragged into the future in order for the power dynamics to change.
Gin & Tonic
And this Tweet is false:
Why do people who do not understand the basic facts get paid to act as if they do?
Kent
I expect Crimea to be like the Palestinian Territories. A lingering sore that will never completely get resolved for decades (if not centuries like Northern Ireland)
Betty Cracker
@Dorothy A. Winsor: My understanding is he bolted Florida weeks ago and is living in NJ.
Major Major Major Major
@NotMax: We played that in college, though not any sort of “official” version.
@Ken: Quite before my time! All my players seem to be mostly familiar with Buffy though so I can ah, borrow heavily, from other sources and they won’t suspect a thing.
Right now I’m trying to figure out the “season arc”, a powerful mortal has summoned a monster to form an army to fight off an even bigger monster (coming via prophecy or what have you), but I just can’t figure out what that intermediate monster should be. Feels like I can just lose all my creativity when I put myself on the spot!
Betty Cracker
@Dan B: Switching to renewables would reduce the influence of so many malign governments: Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia… Texas.
Geminid
@Kent: They may well get some sort of Palestinian state going by the end of this decade, but it will be a lot longer than that before Russia ever lets go of the Crimean peninsula.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: They are insisting that I become a member in order to read the story. Not doing that.
What did he say about the VP?
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor
Relocated to NJ for Florida’s ‘don’t step outside – you’ll melt’ season. Has been periodically making sojourns from NJ to NY. Seems to be mostly for meetings with 2022’s crop of sick sycophants from elsewhere who are slavering for an endorsement.
Would be the pinnacle of poetic justice were he caught trying to vote in the NYC mayoral primary.
Martin
Oh, learned something new last week. Sinus infections can give you vertigo. Never got vertigo from one before. It sucks.
So, if you ever get hit with vertigo, consider it might be a sinus/ear infection. Might clear up with some sudafed. Seems like something everyone should know.
PeakVT
I think the G-7 and NATO summits are pretty much what could be expected under Biden, which is vast improvement from TFG. There is a bit of a honeymoon going on – everyone but Putin is just happy that they’re dealing with a rational leader of the USA. But the perpetually thorny issues in the area between Turkey and India have been left to the side, mostly because these meetings weren’t really the forums to make progress on what are mostly American problems.
Cheryl Rofer
LOL, the Ukraine thing was blowing up just as I was leaving to get my hair cut. It was pretty obvious that something was wrong – probably a reporter misunderstanding.
Now that I’m back, with shorter hair (In reference to the previous post, my stylist and I do not wear masks. I’ve known him long enough that I trust him when he says he’s vaccinated, and nobody else was in the room.) it looks like:
Hopefully it gave Putin a mild heartburn attack.
Kent
Gaza is one thing. I think it will be a LONG time until we see an independent state on the West Bank.
As for Crimea? It will probably take Russia collapsing into “failed state” status. Which isn’t inconceivable.
Ken
@Kent: Hmm, just thinking “outside the box” in the great tradition of Lord Balfour, what if we establish the Palestinian state in Crimea?
Cermet
Are we insane? Ukraine can’t be admitted to NATO – if we have any hope of not making Russia a permeant enemy that can’t be done. I hate putin, and absolutely consider Russia and its many thousands of ICBM’s a mortal danger but surrounding Russia’s southern and indefensible plains by making the Ukraine part of NATO is not something that would promote peace nor a stable Russia. Look, we started this mess thanks to bushwhack placing NATO on the Northern Russian boarder but piling on so Russia become convinced it is in constant danger from North, West, and South with a growing China isn’t a method to get them on board and won’t help the US. I’m tried of protecting every area of the world while endangering the US. Nukes are our greatest threat so lets not make it worse.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
It might be worth my listening to Glenn Beck in the morning. Perhaps he will have risen from his fainting couch by then.
debbie
To quote that happy warrior from so long ago, I am pleased as punch that Bibi’s gone.
debbie
@Martin:
Wait until you get hit with tinnitus!
Cheryl Rofer
Uncle Joe is having some fun.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
Oh, they’re doing that to me too now. He said her trip was very successful, contrary to the way it was spun in the media. I can’t remember the details. I’ll try to find an informative tweet.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
NotMax
Jonesing for a nightmare a la Bibi? Substitute 2024 for 2020.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Dan B: bp has long had renewable assets, as do many of the other oil companies.
Ken
Since there’s a (minor) horror subthread in these comments, I’ll point out that there were seven Hammer films with Christopher Lee as Dracula, despite Dracula being staked at the end of every one. And Lee, unlike Bibi, didn’t even want the part.
Another Scott
I mentioned yesterday that I thought NATO rules prevented new members from joining if they were involved in a territorial dispute. It seems that it’s actually more nuanced. NATO.int from September 1995 (the USSR collapsed 12/26/1991):
I have little doubt that Putin invaded Ukraine and Georgia before her in part to prevent them from easily joining NATO. But it looks like there are ways to prevent it acting like an iron-clad veto.
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
@debbie
Al Smith doesn’t get mentioned enough here.
:)
Cheryl Rofer
@Another Scott: Yes. Estonia had a prolonged border dispute with Russia which was resolved only a few years ago. Of course Russia kept it going to make it more difficult for Estonia to join NATO, but that didn’t work.
Spanky
@Martin:
I got hit with vertigo about 10 years ago. A sudden, violent onset that took almost a full day to subside. Would get one every week or 2. Doctors assumed it was BPPV, but the maneuver to reduce it never worked.
Quite by accident and on my own I discovered that aggressive popping of my ears gave me immediate relief, and eliminated the spinning in a matter of minutes. I also noticed that attacks only happened in allergy season.
I’ve had a balky eustachian tube since I was a kid. Could never clear water from my right ear, and that was the side giving me the vertigo.
Long story made not much shorter: See your doctor because there can be a variety of serious causes, but give the simplest fixes a try too.
Patricia Kayden
@zhena gogolia: The problem is that Republicans in red states are passing voter suppression laws which may guarantee their disproportionate stranglehold on power for years to come. But I love President Biden’s attitude. It doesn’t pay to be pessimistic.
JoyceH
@Dorothy A. Winsor: As far as I know, he’s shifted to Bedminster for the summer. As for a rationale, it’s because that’s what he always does. Mar A Lago shuts down in the summer and Trump moves to Bedminster. For some reason, news reporters were narrowing their eyes and wondering what the shift portends, despite the fact that he does it every year.
The UK’s Daily Mail called Trump ‘gaunt and pale’ – I looked at the pictures and the paleness is basically that he’s not wearing his makeup. But his suit was a sight to behold, a wrinkled mess. And no tie. He’s really letting himself go.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Cheryl Rofer:
I think a lot of us would be okay with it being major and losing the second syllable of heartburn.
Spanky
@debbie:
Got that too! A “touch football” injury to my cervical spine.
NotMax
No doubt scores of wags have already come up with the Bibi version of Toot, Toot, Tootsie (Goo’ Bye!). If anyone happens across a particularly trenchant version, please to share.
;)
Betty
@Martin: The key is whether Democrats understand how essential it is to enact Biden’s agenda and protect elections. Those left in the Republican Party are deeply committed to voting. If Democrats don’t get their act together, their voters will be discouraged.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cermet: Yep, all your fears are true. Biden is a crazed warmonger who is deliberately provoking a nuclear conflict.
Elizabelle
Never mind.
Mary G
Betty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Betty Cracker says he can’t handle Florida summer weather. I think his resort also closes in the summer.
Wapiti
@JoyceH: He no longer has a valet provided by the US government, and can’t write off the expense of a body man as a campaign expense. So, what is he going to do?
Betty
@Elizabelle: I mean their voters are committed to voting. Their officials are committed to not just voter suppression but also to election interference. The latter is more worrisome.
Ken
@Wapiti: Traditionally, a man’s wife (especially a politician’s wife) would make sure he looked presentable for public appearances.
Elizabelle
@Betty: Thanks Betty. I realized what you meant on a second read; my bad.
And you’re right; Republicans do turn out to vote. I wish a lot of our voters would be less sporadic and pay more attention.
JoyceH
@Ken: Melania’s response to that? “I don’t really care. Do U?”
Kay
@Mary G:
Oh, I’m so glad. I think horrible people took advantage of her.
NotMax
@Ken
Melania has made it crystal clear she doesn’t care.
Baud
So Biden has already flip flopped on his plan to admit Ukraine into NATO? Figures.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: That is nice to read. I am tired of all the so-called journalists who put their thumb on the scale.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
Baud, don’t ever change.
James E Powell
@zhena gogolia:
Have to admit, I’m unaccustomed to seeing “really good piece” with a link to daily beast
The press/media must really hate them.
James E Powell
@Major Major Major Major:
How about this: the intermediate monster is from some realm unrelated to your main one, does not care about the conflict, and has to be managed or it might switch sides.
lowtechcyclist
@Kent:
Intercontinental delivery systems for those nukes puts them in a bit of a different league than Pakistan or NK.
Uncle Cosmo
@lowtechcyclist: Intercontinental delivery systems for
thosea whole shit-ton of nukes puts them in a bit of a different league than Pakistan or NK.FTFY. Vlad The Paler can press multiple buttons that in 30 minutes would disassemble the great majority of BJ front pagers, posters and lurkers into their component atoms. Those of us who lived through the height of the Cold War remember that in our guts; the rest of yinz might want to take that to heart as well.
Danielx
@NotMax:
Been done – those were in one of the Blade movies.
Ruckus
@Martin:
There are a number of things that can give you vertigo.
It’s a fun thing to experience, isn’t it?
Ruckus
@debbie:
Wait till you live with it for decades. Hopefully you haven’t already.
There is another commenter here that has had it quite a bit longer than me, I recall 25 yrs, but mine goes back 18 yrs, same tone, same volume 24/7/365.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I think a number of oil companies realize that oil pumped out of the ground and burned will not last as long as many people think and the cost when it gets a bit rarer will shock a lot of them.
Kent
You don’t think Pakistan couldn’t stash a nuke in some shipping container and send it into San Francisco or New York harbor? Or stash it on a JFK-bound flight?
I mean, yes. the Russian thread is on an orders of magnitude different scale. But we are also largely talking about deterrence. I expect Pakistan’s nukes would produce a pretty heavy second guessing of any sort of Iraq war type regime change invasion of Pakistan. By the US, India, or China.
Just Chuck
@Ruckus: There’s quite a bit of oil left, unfortunately. The smart oil companies are diversifying as entire countries are moving to buy less of their sole product. Ideally once that drives prices down enough, it won’t be worth the high cost of extracting.
Kent
The real problem is that oil companies are currently valued not just on the basis of their current revenues or production. But also on the future value of their reserves. In other words, no small portion of Exxon’s CURRENT stock price (and CEO bonuses) is based on the FUTURE value of its worldwide reserves.
Exxon cannot willingly admit that a large portion of its owned reserves will never be exploited because that will instantly chop off a big portion of its stock price or net asset value. Which will instantly cost stockholders and executives billions of dollars.
So their only option is to basically run out the clock and kick the can down the road as far as they can. It’s basically the same problem as Miami real estate. No one wants to be the first to admit that it is all eventually worthless.
NotMax
@Danielx
Okay then, zombie vampire hummingbirds.
;)
J R in WV
We can’t tell, right now, if Russian intercontinental delivery devices will operate, how well they will operate, etc. etc. We do know many of their high end military devices are barely functional, such as submarines, aircraft carriers, etc.
As a child of the 1950s and 60s, I well recall the Cuban Missile Crisis, and have no desire to go there again, even as an old.
Ruckus
@Kent:
I should have been a bit clearer. There is still oil there, there will be oil for a while. What I was meaning is that a lot of the easiest to get oil is gone, so now the cost of production will go up, not tomorrow, not next week but it will. And many areas that have none of their own oil and some that actually do are, as you say, going with renewables, solar, wind, and in big ways. We are seeing electric cars taking off and in some countries, in a big way. That will reduce the need for as much oil but I’m not holding my breath for it to make a huge dent any time soon. I’m talking after I’m gone, and while I’m old and actually retiring this week, I hope that will be some time off. But oil is a limited resource and costs a fair amount to acquire, ship, refine, sell and actually to use as well. We will always need oil of some sort and I’d bet there will be some around for quite a while. But we have been burning it a lot over the last 100 yrs or so and it takes a lot longer to create than that. I’m betting that within the lifetime of people alive today, we will see oil become a lot more expensive, even if it partially comes from not using as much, after all I doubt anyone has ever said with a straight face that oil companies are good neighbors.
ericblair
Um, that’s correct, they couldn’t? There are levels of security implemented that aren’t slapped all over the front of the New York Times. You can, however, google about the increasing pressure on world tritium supplies and its relation to the, er, explosive growth in radiation detection equipment.
Alien Radio
@Just Chuck:@Ruckus @Kent.
Stranded reserves are probably the biggest issue facing oil companies. and the problem is worse than just the write down of fossil fuel assets, imagine you are a oil scion and you have a habit of spending beyond your means, and you can always borrow against the revenues of your theoretically irreplaceable economic duchy, or you can use loans to move money out of your shithole petro state and buy property in london, new york, LA etc. you have access to wealth managers at banks who will loan you whatever you want. Those assets you’ve taken the loan out against are composed of reserves that are over reported in quantity and quality, because it makes the balance sheets look better. and maybe in a world without renewables and efficient hydrocarbon sythesis, it might not be such a fiction 40 or 50 years down the line. but that’s not the world we live in, oil will face a market collapse, spiralling costs of extraction, the fact that their assets are worthless AND all the loans will dry up.