I’ve hesitated to bring up the situation playing out on Capitol Hill, where a dozen or so Democrats (out of a total of around 270+ in both chambers!), most prominently Senators Manchin and Sinema, are acting like preening drama llamas as they obstruct the party’s agenda and make it all about themselves — all while a fascist movement with its own multichannel ministry of propaganda and authoritarian dictator wannabe-in-waiting have seized control of one of the country’s two political parties. I keep hoping this is all a ridiculous sausage-making dance extravaganza and everything will work out in the end.
And maybe it will! I keep telling myself it’s a pity all negotiations take place within the one party that’s interested in governing, but that’s our current reality, and given the barest of margins, we’ve got to be willing to swallow a lot of shit from outliers within our party. But there has to be a limit.
At the very least, negotiators have to stake out a position so that a compromise can take shape. It’s a sure sign of bad faith when one party in a negotiation says, “I get what I want now, and you’ll just have to wait and see if you’ll get anything in return.” Especially when that party to the negotiation has already broken an existing agreement and thereby destroyed trust.
That’s where we are right now. First, Gottheimer and company blew up the deal for a two-track passage of the bipartisan infrastructure deal along with the reconciliation package — and they blew it up for transparently bullshit reasons. The entire fucking point of that deal was to keep faith between a small group of outliers and the rest of the caucus, and the outliers blew it up. And now Manchinema are jerking the president around:
“I don’t know what more he can do,” [Senate Majority Whip Dick] Durbin told NBC News. “He calls them down to the White House frequently, you know, pretty soon they’re going to get nameplates on the door, they’re down there so often.”
Both centrist senators remain tight-lipped on giving the President a top line number nor providing specific demands on what tweaks they would like to see in the reconciliation package.
Like I said, maybe it’ll work out in the end. I can easily envision Dems reaching some sort of painful accommodation that forces removal of most reconciliation provisions that offend No Labels donors. If that leaves a package that fucks Americans out of the desperately needed social spending Biden and the Democrats campaigned on (including the obstructionists!) but still seriously addresses the existential threat of climate change, the overwhelming majority of Democrats who support the Biden agenda, i.e., all but a dozen or so show ponies, would probably pass that bill, and we’d end up with the usual shit sandwich that everyone is used to choking down.
But it looks like there’s a serious possibility that Sinemanchin will refuse to budge until the infrastructure bill passes. If Sinema and/or Manchin do insist on passage of the infrastructure bill without committing to passing a broadly acceptable reconciliation bill too, Democrats should tank the goddamn bipartisan bill — preferably with Biden’s explicit blessing. The obstructionists can’t be trusted since they already broke the two-track agreement, so they shouldn’t get to play Lucy the football holder.
I’m usually a “half a loaf is better than none” person, but this behavior from the obstructionists is intolerable and cannot be allowed to succeed. Obviously, it will be terrible if the whole thing blows up and nothing passes. In that scenario, 100% of the Beltway press and many loosely affiliated voters will conclude that Democrats can’t govern. But IMO, caving in to the obstructionists’ demands would be worse for the party than acquiescing for what is essentially a glorified “bipartisan” highway bill because it would brand us as the party of Manchin and Sinema.
Better to tank the bill and run as the anti-fascist, anti-corruption party that needs more seats so it can govern effectively than to make those two corrupt and vain shit-stains the face of the party. The first look is weak, and that’s not good, but at least there’s a possibility for strengthening. The second confirms regular people’s worst fears about politics and will make the ubiquitous “both sides” lies ring true.
Enough of this bullshit already. Pass both, or pass none.
craigie
I choose both.
germy
Maybe this is why Democrats should ask for the moon and the stars. This way, after it gets negotiated down by Republicans and paid-for Democrats, we can settle for just the moon.
debbie
I just listened to 20 minutes of Pressley pointedly talking about why she won’t compromise IN ANY WAY AT ALL. Sigh.
germy
germy
Nancy Pelosi sees this story and sighs “I know the feeling”
Joe Falco
The White House is going to run out of bourbon and cardboard wine with how many times Sinemanchin have been invited there.
Jeffro
Can’t we all chip in and offer to match whatever $$$ is being paid to Sinema under the table here?
OzarkHillbilly
To be fair, it is a whole lot easier to unite a disparate group against a thing than it is to unite them in favor of one. All DEMs were easily anti trump and as long as he was in the WH, united against damn near everything he wanted to do. But now that Biden is there we all have our sacred cows that we are loath to give up.
dr. bloor
The progressives can certainly afford to hold the line here, as they’re not the ones in the vulnerable seats next cycle. It’s the problem children that are going to find themselves going back to their districts to campaign with their asses out and hands empty.
sab
Anybody have a link to anything that identifies who these folks are?
dr. bloor
@Jeffro:
It’s unlikely that any of us can count that high, much less match that dollar amount.
germy
@dr. bloor:
We call them problem children but they leave us with the problems while they pocket pharm and fossil fuel money.
Searcher
@Jeffro: While we’re at it, can we start a retirement fund for SCOTUS Justices?
Shalimar
Manchin and Sinema have different goals. They aren’t working together. Sinema is the key, and she is arguing in bad faith. Agree completely that both bills should die if she doesn’t compromise. Passing the bipartisan bill would reward her lies.
Old School
@Jeffro:
That’s what I thought but I see Atrios argued some politicians just don’t care about small donors. They’ll always value the $1,000 donor over the ten $100 donors.
germy
Jeffro
Btw Rubin has a new piece up in the Post that’s about as succinct as one can be about the problems we’re facing and how to deal with them: How to Cope With a Deceitful, Anti-Democratic Party
Jeffro
@Old School: Should we ‘bundle’ our donations? I hear ‘bundling’ works. =)
Shalimar
@Jeffro: I said a few days ago that what we need is a billionaire to match Sinema’s bribes and get her voting the right way. It’s too much money to crowd-fund.
Jeffro
Woodrow/asim
That gets you to none, option 2. Pressley and the Progressives haven’t done very much “wrong” in this effort, and have negotiated until now in good faith, from what I’ve seen. I mean, this is Betty’s point (and echoed by Josh Marshall as well as Jon Chait!) from what I can tell: why bend if the other side has already shown a willingness to abuse goodwill?
I’m 1000% behind negotiations. Compromise is the backbone of any small-d democratic political effort.
But to give even an inch to the foolishness that’s being passed as “centrist” wisdom these days — a foolishness that’s empowered by the ability to steal the GOP’s “Just Say No” approach without consequence…how is that a win for us?
sab
@germy: That’s a big herd. When I rented a herd I only got a dozen. They certainly look happy.
Jeffro
@Shalimar: good call.
My guess is the only thing that’ll get her to move involves something along those very lines. “Being Senator’s a pretty good gig, amirite Ms. S.? We know you like the office and the power and the spotlight, and that’s fine. But AZ Dems are going to be furious if you screw this up, and the GQP’s just waiting to pounce. What’s that? The money? Oh, we’ll be happy to connect you with the biggest of big-dollar donors on our side, no sweat! But you’re going to have to go against the folks who’ve been lobbying you these past couple of weeks. Not to worry! Like I said, we’ll hook you up, the donations will keep flowing – will probably ramp up, even! – and it’ll be all good. Whaddya say?”
Baud
I don’t trust Manchin or Sinema, but I also don’t trust a lot of the reporting about them or other Democrats in this fight. So I’m forced into a wait-and-see attitude.
Ken
@sab: Did your herd come with riders?
(I posted that link in an earlier thread, but I feel the video deserves more notice.)
WaterGirl
I am having to do the equivalent of sticking my fingers in my ears and saying “la-la-la-la-la-la”. I am this close to starting to panic; there is absolutely nothing I can do to have an impact on the outcome.
So I am carefully tending the edges of the box where I have stuffed my (formerly) small fear that nothing will get passed, but that fear is exponentially increasing and is pushing at the ends of the box. At this point my job is to try to stay calm and let the situation play out. But it’s getting harder and harder to do that, so I am mostly staying quiet and trying not to read any of the details.
Ksmiami
I hate to say I told you all about Sinema/Manchin but we need them ostracized permanently…
JaySinWa
@Jeffro:
My guess is she is looking for a lifetime sinecure, and those don’t come cheap.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
I’d actually feel a little better if this whole thing fell apart because Manchin and Sinema took principled stands on some issue. But I just don’t see them doing that. They really had a chance to be big DC players, but they seem to be choosing to be vilified for no good reason.
germy
I certainly hope they do.
Elizabelle
@Baud:
Agreed. Wait and see. Who knows who is loading the DC press corpse with all the Biden is failing!! shit they are so attuned to publish. The big word is “struggle.” It’s preferred for discussing Biden. It is de rigeur for the FTF NY Times and the WaPost with its brand new AP-lifer editor.
Baud
@germy: Maybe this is her secret plan to get more Dems to register!
(I can dream.)
germy
JaySinWa
@Jeffro: I don’t think her re-elect numbers are good no matter what she does. It’s cashout time or nothing for her.
Woodrow/asim
The issues here are systemic. I mean, from the Federalist Papers themselves, we see how American Governance was built to evade so-called “mob rule” — and we here? Are The Mob, y’all.
In contrast — the insurrectionists are acting out what a certain section of moneyed folx would like America to be. It’s of a piece with how, in the antebellum American South, they could direct white male voters to quite literally dance to the tune of whomever was in charge, politically:
And it wasn’t just the South — remember Oregon was founded on “principals” of White Supremacy, as well. It’s not a shock those principals are flowing back to everyone’s awareness, at this time.
It ain’t no joke to say that This Has All Happened Before, and is threatening to Happen Again. And we have to work together — really work together, in concert with the groups who’ve been fighting this stuff for decades like Repairers of the Breach, to shift the tides.
Baud
@JaySinWa:
She’s not up until 2024. If this bill passes, she has plenty of time to recover if that’s what she wants to do. If it fails, however, I think it’s a lot harder for her.
lowtechcyclist
I think TPM’s Kate Riga sums up Manchinema’s absurdity here:
This is the problem. If you’re objecting because you don’t like provision X in the bill, but you’re upset that provision Z got left out, negotiation is possible. But if you’re just objecting for no apparent reason, then you’re just acting like a spoiled child who wants to be the center of attention.
I’ve had it up to here with the Tantrum-Throwing Children’s Party that’s also known as the GOP. I can’t say I’m fond of it when a couple of Dem Senators go for the same look.
And to Betty C’s point: damned straight. Both or none. If the reconciliation bill gets tanked, the centrists don’t get to bring home a glorified highway bill either.
This is crunch time for our hopes that Biden would get serious shit done. If we don’t do jack about climate change now, who knows when’s the next time we’ll get the chance, or whether it will be in time. We need a reconciliation bill with the climate stuff basically intact. If it’s necessary to take the bipartisan infrastructure bill hostage, that’s what must be done.
Lawrence
In a different year, I would agree. I think we get the best of what we can get, primary Sinema, find another Senator to replace Manchin, and go back at it. If that can be done. I don’t think the messaging on we got nothing is a winner.
Baud
By the way, Nancy can sit on the infrastructure bill until the end of next year. I’m not sure if the reconciliation bill has the same shelf life.
Another Scott
I’m very much reminded of the PPACA drama. There were a lot of last-minute issues. A lot. But it got done.
Both bills will pass. Maybe not this week, but it will happen. There’s too much riding on it.
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
Ksmiami
Mint the Coin, get booster shots in arms and move on. The Democrats look feckless and need to get this off the news. I’d censure Manchin and Sinema and investigate them btw
Betty Cracker
@Baud: From what I read, that’s the case. It’s perhaps helpful that a PAC that is heavily funded by the pharma lobby started sending out mailers and running ads in AZ bragging about Sinema bringing home the infrastructure bacon right before she started making noises about tanking Medicare Rx negotiations. It would be embarrassing if she brought home zero bacon after that, so the infrastructure bill is maybe a point of leverage. Another reason it would be foolish to cave in to her demands.
dr. bloor
@Lawrence:
Any senator from WV replacing Manchin will almost certainly be a Republican.
TheTruffle
@Lawrence: I agree with this. A better solution is to add more Democrats to the Senate and House and make Simanchema less relevant.
guachi
Josh Marshall has been hammering this point. Giving in to Manchin and Sinema would be worse than passing nothing at all.
Another Scott
@Shalimar: The bills won’t “die”, they just won’t be brought up for a vote until all 50 senators are on board. I agree with someone above; I don’t think there’s a deadline on the BIF until this Congress expires (early Jan 2023). Reconciliation bills are annual things, so they’d have to start over if it doesn’t pass by December, IIUC.
Everyone is playing hardball because the drop-dead date isn’t here yet. Once that date arrives, things will change and the bills will get enough support to pass.
Cheers,
Scott.
joey5slice
This strikes me as the rare opportunity where those of us in safe-blue districts can do something useful. I often ignore the “call your congress critters” requests on this site because, as a resident of the People’s Republic of Brooklyn, my DC reps are usually already on the right side of the issue. But this is a place where pressure to hold the line might help!
I just called my Rep (Velazquez NY-7)’s office and politely asked how she would vote on the BIF if she wasn’t confident about reconciliation. The staffer couldn’t comment on how she’ll vote tomorrow but affirmed that Rep Velazquez thinks both bills should pass. I asked him to register my view that Velazquez should vote “no” on the BIF unless she’s confident about the reconciliation bill.
If enough safe Ds hear “Both or Nothing,” it might help them keep a united front and make sure we don’t lose the one piece of leverage we have.
Ascap_scab
While I agree it should be all or nothing, it’s looking like Pelosi will get enough Republicans to cross over to offset the progressive defections.
After that, reconciliation will slowly be whittled down to near zero.
TheTruffle
@guachi: I just don’t agree. The GOP ads will write themselves if that happens.
Woodrow/asim
Yes! This sounds like a solid plan for those in that position!
sab
@Ken: That is so cute. I like that the rider is initially skeptical about eating whatever a goat eats.
Betty Cracker
@TheTruffle: That would indeed be swell, but the reality is, parties rarely get a trifecta more than once a decade. I damn well hope we hold Congress and expand our numbers after 2022 and will do everything I personally can to make that happen, but it would be foolish to count on it. And if we lose it, we lose time we can’t get ever get back to address climate change.
@joey5slice: That’s an excellent point.
Elizabelle
@dr. bloor: Another Democratic Senator from any of the other states. West Virginia is probably gone, but pickup opportunities in other states, for sure.
Agree with Kay and others: it’s on Manchin and Sinema to prove to us that they are not too toxic to keep in our tent.
FWIW, I don’t think Sinema will recover from this crap she’s pulled, no matter what she does. Would you want to trust her? She seems very untrustworthy. I do not believe that Arizona could not do better. A Democrat with actual principles could try her path to election: Democrats on board, and go after the independents too.
Betty Cracker
@Ascap_scab: If that happens, I think I’ll become a full-time bird blogger.
lowtechcyclist
@Woodrow/asim:
And not much of a plan for those ‘centrists’ who aren’t in such safe seats, amirite?
It’s really simple: if the Dems bring home the bacon, all the Dems up for election in 2022 will maximize their winning chances. If not, it could be a ‘wave’ year for Republicans that takes out the handful of centrist Dems that remain.
So maybe the centrists had better get on the bus, y’know?
James E Powell
@Baud:
If this bill passes, she has plenty of time to recover if that’s what she wants to do. If it fails, however, I think it’s a lot harder for her.
And who will be voting against her in 2024 for being in favor of this bill in 2021? Who will even remember her yes vote? The only reason this vote is on the news is because she has declared herself to be against it.
SpaceUnit
I think it’s a mistake to assume that there’s anything legislatively or budget-wise that either Manchin or Sinema actually want. All they want is to run in their next election as a goddamn “maverick”. They’ve calculated that a failure on reconciliation would certainly hurt 330 million Americans worse than it could hurt either one of them. Assholes.
James E Powell
Even if our senators & reps are voting in favor, we should be calling & emailing our support for passing the reconciliation then the other one. They need to know we are watching & want it done right. They respond to intensity more than gross numbers in a poll.
And, of course, if you are in AZ or WV, you should be forming massive crowds outside the Obstructors’ offices to encourage them to do the job they were elected to do.
A Good Woman
@WaterGirl:
I am with you WG. However, in my case the panic is setting in, and NONE does not strike me as a winning play. If we can’t hold the House and Senate, and preferably gain more seats in ’22, then we can kiss Democrat governance good-effing-bye. I don’t see how we hold through the mid-terms if Biden comes up empty handed.
At this point I don’t believe Manchin/Sinema will sign on to anything that doesn’t fit their particular expectations. Assuming we can get all 50 Dem Senators to hold the line, with Harris breaking a tie, we may have a chance. However the House has got to come through in that case. Otherwise I fully expect NONE to be the outcome and that makes it even harder to retain or expand control of the two chambers.
I am not happy with The Squad’s intransigence in this matter. Rep. Jayapal can beat her chest in the best imitation of a pious Pharisee as she looks out for The People, but the reality is that the Senate is likely to fail to come through. She is willing to fall on her sword if that happens and take the rest of us with her. That seems like political suicide to me. Right now we don’t have the votes to waste on theatrics that may result in no infrastructure funding and create an opening for the GQP.
James E Powell
@SpaceUnit:
I agree. If there were, we’d know what it is. It has been reported that Sinema has refused to identify what she wants. While that reporting may not reflect the double secret negotiations, I still think she is a total asshole.
Sean
You don’t negotiate by refusing to say what you even want. Sinema and Manchin aren’t “negotiating.” They are stalling in the hopes that they can have the BIF and tank the reconciliation bill altogether. They don’t want the reconciliation bill, that is the only answer for their behavior. If they wanted it, they’d say what their topline is and what their asks are. They don’t have a topline or asks because they simply have no desire to see it happen at all. It’s frustrating to see people say “maybe they’ll carve out a filibuster exception,” or “maybe they’ll suddenly start negotiating in good faith.” That seems like a pipe dream. They just want to shrug off the larger problems we face and just go on pretending everything is fine. They don’t care if reconciliation passes. God help us on the debt ceiling, because I don’t see how we move these 2 clowns when they just want it their way while refusing to say what that even is.
JPL
@A Good Woman: I think democracy is on the line too, and it’s horrifying
Baud
@A Good Woman:
If both don’t pass, there’s going to be schism in the party anyway. Even red and purple states and districts have lefty voters. Passing both would be a win-win for everyone, which is why the drama is so frustrating.
JaySinWa
@Baud: I had a dim memory of analysts thinking she was in trouble, looking around she was still above water in popularity in July. So yeah she’s got a lot of time ahead to recover from whatever ails her but might be vulnerable to a primary or the general if she is blamed for tanking the economy.
OTOH 2024 is a long way off and the voting public doesn’t have a long attention span. So she probably isn’t feeling the heat yet and might never face consequences.
Ksmiami
Bail at this point. Cut bait… try to do smaller but impactful executive stuff and get the dysfunctional Democrats headlines out of the news. Oh and read the riot act to Garland. Btw I knew there was a huge chance that Biden would be the last president of our democracy before we fall to authoritarianism. Oh well we had a good run
JPL
Imagine trump’s favorite representative third in line for the presidency. It won’t be Kevin McCarthy.
Major Major Major Major
The Simpsons’ party convention gag continues to be correct…
The big DNC signs read “we hate life and ourselves” and “we can’t govern!”, the RNC signs read “we want what’s worst for everyone” and “we’re literally evil”…
Baud
@James E Powell: Yeah, it’s hard for me to wrap my head around what’s going on here. Especially with Sinema since Mark Kelley is being a good soldier.
Old School
@A Good Woman:
Although giving the GQP exactly what they want doesn’t seem to be the best argument for electing Democrats either.
Thus the push for passing both bills.
Baud
@Ksmiami: You don’t get any points for being the first to give up. We’ll know in the next few days how this all shakes out.
Ksmiami
I foresee Manchin and Sinema sharing an office in the Senate latrine. Oh well
Ksmiami
@Baud: Americans have short memories and smaller brains anyway
Benw
@WaterGirl: you can go check out some very good and fat bois:
Fat Bear Week!
Woodrow/asim
By “those” I mean constituents.
Unless I’m misunderstanding you: I’m not playing the “what should Congressperson X do?” game. It’s a mug’s game, as they used to say — it just gets us ordinary citizens riled up and frustrated, in my opinion. We can’t change their calculus with Internet comments, and I don’t like sparing my precious emotional and logic-making labor trying to do so, most days.
(Historically is different, where we usually have some distance and documentation on what was occurring “behind the scenes”. The 24-hour news cycle seldom provides that level of insight.)
But the original comment was about what ordinary citizens can do, to make a difference. I’ll happily co-sign that effort.
RaflW
I feel like a tinfoil hat person, but do we not know if Putin (through whatever back channels) has gotten to Sinema?
Sure, a combination of corporate donor influence and gopher own drifting, seemingly values-free self-absorption is much more likely. But she feels like a Kremlin cypher, at least a smidge.
Manchin is just a whore to big carbon.
eta This is the essence of their bad faith: “Both centrist (sic) senators remain tight-lipped on giving the President a top line number nor providing specific demands on what tweaks they would like to see in the reconciliation package.”
Elizabelle
@Ksmiami:
Pieing you for a spell. Enough. You’re so goddamn histrionic.
Geminid
I know that President Biden, Speaker Pelosi, and Majority Leader Schumer agreed to move the two infrastructure bills in tandem. I am not sure that Manchin and Sinema agreed to this. And when the Speaker promised this, did she have the have the concurrence of the entire Democratic House Caucus? I point this out because the framing that there was bad faith bargaining and that people reneged on promises may be inaccurate.
I think that this is not a matter of just the moderate side getting what they want in the “Bipartisan Infrastructure” package. Both sides are getting substantial clean energy expenditures on passenger rail, charging stations, electric schoolbuses, etc. And the infrastructure spending generally will provide good jobs for working class people, a group that “progressives” value, at least in the abstract. So, the liberals are getting something they want, or should want, in the physical infrastructure bill, just not enough of what they want.
This is a game of chicken. The tactic of leveraging one bill to get the other may be warranted, but Pelosi would not have expressed her willingness earlier this week to allow a vote on the physical infrastructure bill if she did not think it was worth it, and that no bills passed are better than one.
WaterGirl
@Benw: Ha!
Another Scott
@Baud: What’s going on is that nobody is giving up any leverage to guarantee a vote on Thursday. So there won’t be a vote on Thursday.
All of the participants know how this stuff works. After Thursday passes, people will regroup, discuss the real deadlines, pass a CR before 10/1, and then the real work on the BIF and RB will get done.
The PPACA looked like it was doomed too, but they got it done with every vote that it needed in the Senate. That will happen here too.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
dr. bloor
@A Good Woman:
How is it, then, that you so confidently conclude that the absence of a bill is “The Squad’s*” fault?
*P.S. They have a bunch of company in this particular situation
NotMax
Mmmmm … sausage.
Served
It just seems so clear to me that Sinema saw John McCain’s MAVERICK schtick and is trying to replicate it by tanking her party’s big agenda items in as dramatic fashion as possible, but without any of the actual legwork behind how McCain made it work for himself. McCain’s schtick was cultivated over decades, he had institutional respect as a veteran, and was better at managing the media than she is.
She has the shallowest understanding of it, and it’s going to blow up in her face.
Ksmiami
@Elizabelle: but not wrong as of yet…
Baud
@Another Scott:
Right. That’s certainly a possibility over Mutually Assured Destruction. What I don’t like is how the drama plays out in the press. Even if we end up passing something excellent, it’s much harder to get voters excited if they’ve become frustrated by the process.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Relatedly, TheHill:
Cheers,
Scott.
JPL
@Baud: We need to name it the Afghan treatment.
Baud
@JPL:
Haha. Apt.
Geminid
@A Good Woman: Jayapaul does not have a united Progressive Caucus on this question. She says that “dozens” of the 90+ caucus members will not vote for the physical infrastructure bill alone, but some of these do not sound definite in their public statements. And some like Peter Welch (VT) favor taking the bird in hand.
RaflW
@Another Scott: Meanwhile the clock is getting run out on the Voting Rights Bill sinemanch don’t like, so it’s a twofer for them, and bupkus or worse for the rest of us.
I hate this shit. That said, I will keep voting and working to elect more Dems, because that’s the available path forward.
Old Man Shadow
I feel like we’ve all been here before and the end result was many Americans becoming so disgusted with government that they either stayed home or decided to try rolling the dice with the crazy, evil motherfucker in the hopes that he would do shit and wouldn’t fuck their mother.
Baud
@Old Man Shadow:
Last time we were here, Obama and Congress passed a bunch of good bills that a lot of people decided just weren’t good enough. If these bills pass, then we’ll see whether or not people will take it for granted or not.
Edmund Dantes
@Geminid: the liberal votes in the senate were predicated on that. Without they don’t vote for the bipartisan bill and it most likely dies or fails to overcome a filibuster (either from Dem or GoP).
Old School
@Geminid:
There were 21 senators working on the compromise. Both Manchin and Sinema were part of the group.
taumaturgo
@TheTruffle: Is going to be that in either case, but you bring up a good point. Democrats run scare of their shadow just thinking about how they’ll be bashed by GQP, but history shows that no matter how much they caved, they are bash all the same. Why cave then?
Geminid
@dr. bloor: The Progressives may not lose their seats if the phyical infrastructure bill is not passed, but if enough moderates lose purple seats progressives will be in the minority like they were before the 2018 midterms. Having a more ideologically compact caucus will be cold comfort to the more pragmatic.
Feckless
Regardless
Nancy and chuck must go.
This should never have reached this point they are incompetent idiots who have done nothing but hemorage Democratic seats EVERY election. I hope they choke on their deified bipartisanship with the insurrectionists and the bills they passed to keep tRumps govt open.
dr. bloor
@Geminid:
Which is precisely the leverage the progressive caucus has here. The “center” can choose between doing the right thing or packing up their offices and heading back to Centristville. It shouldn’t be a difficult call for them.
Baud
@Geminid: The assumption is that we’re better off electorally with only the infrastructure bill, meaning will gain enough votes to make up for disappointed progressives (legitimately disappointed this time). Some believe that we would be better off putting all the blame on Manchin and Sinema and preserving the Dem brand in that way. I don’t know who’s correct.
Elizabelle
This thread is just readership repulsion for me. No one needs such free floating anxiety in the middle of the day.
It’s such a fucking useless emotion.
Ksmiami
@Baud: nah people won’t care and the effects will be diffuse. And the Dems won’t earn a single heartland vote from bumfuckistan.
Baud
@Ksmiami: Well, if losing is inevitable, then I don’t need to stress over it.
Old School
@Feckless:
Well, except for retaking the senate less than a year ago, but do go on.
JustRuss
“Centrist”. I can think of a much better word for these preening Donnas. A few of them in fact.
Baud
@Elizabelle: Yeah, there’s not much we can do at this point. IF Dems pull this out tomorrow (or soon thereafter), we just need to be ready to push back on all the negativity from bad faith actors and celebrate the accomplishment.
Noskilz
You’re probably correct – one of the things that emboldens Sinema and Manchin is that they both seem to feel they have nothing to lose, perhaps it would be best to remind them they have toys on the playground as well.
Geminid
@Old School: Wait. Are you saying that the compromise all those 21 Senators agreed to was moving these bills in tandem? I don’t remember this. I just remember some of the Republicans who voted for the physical infrastructure bill yelping when Biden and Pelosi announced that the physical infrastructure bill would not proceed without the second one. If Romney and the others later agreed to linkage I must have missed it. I have heard that some of these Senators are trying to whip Republican House votes for the first bill.
Ksmiami
@Baud: exactly why this charade should end. Raise the debt ceiling and move on. Americans get the government they deserve- I mean ffs Maine Re-elected fucking Susan Collins
Miss Bianca
@Feckless: your nym says it all for you. Just add “idiot” and you’re all set.
Bnad
Sinema has no reason to go along. She’s got 3 more years to earn her
wingnutcentrist welfare.Ksmiami
@Bnad: cut bait… these pathetic self owns are hurting Biden
Steeplejack
Duplicate.
JPL
@Miss Bianca: We actually had overseas visitors when Hillary was running. I wonder if they’re back.
hmmm
Geminid
@Edmund Dantes: Hasn’t the bipartisan bill passed the Senate already? In that case liberal Senators couldn’t take back their votes even if they could. And a lot of liberal Senators wouldn’t want to.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
Vote Baud!20XX!
JPL
@Geminid: That’s what I thought.. House passes the bill and Biden signs it. If there are changes, then it goes back.
Lee Hartmann
Late to the party, but Betty both Josh Marshall and Chair agree with you. Chait especially makes the point, as others above, that the hostage-takers won’t even say what they’ll agree to. There’s no negotiation possible in that situation.
Plus, the BBBA has climate change stuff in it! Good Christ, will we ever start doing something about it?
Geminid
@dr. bloor: That “center” you speak of is most of the House Democratic caucus, who are willing to vote for the physical infrastructure bill as Pelosi proposed on Monday. I’m not saying that Jayapaul’s “dozens” are neccessarily wrong, but they are a minority of their larger caucus, and may not be a majority even in the Progressive Caucus.
Baud
@Geminid:
@JPL:
That’s correct. The only issue is whether enough progressive Dems will go along with that because the right flank didn’t live up to their end of the process. I believe there are a few GOP who have said they will vote for the infrastructure bill, so we can lose a few Dems and still pass it if enough Dems go along.
Cameron
A year ago I would not have thought that Bernie Sanders – who is NOT a Democrat and has often been a pain in the ass to the Democratic Party – would be a team player for President Biden’s priorities, while two senators – who ran and were elected as Democrats – would tell Joe Biden to go shit in his hat.
Old School
@Geminid: My recollection was that the whole package was originally in the reconciliation bill. The compromise was to split off the infrastructure so that Republicans could brag about voting for it and the rest would remain as a reconciliation bill.
Of course, as soon as the compromise was reached, McConnell came out against the reconciliation bill. And then some Republican members of the compromise committee voted against their own agreement.
Geminid
@Baud: The thoughtful @Mangy Jay examined these tactical and strategic questions and admitted she could not be certain which course was the better. It’s an interesting thread. Personally, I think letting the physical infrastructure bill fail would be cutting off the nose to spite the face.
Part of the problem is that the bill is, correctly, called “Bipartisan.” This term has become a dirty word for many Democrats. Their emotional response is, “Bipartisan? Eewww!”
oatler
Heinlein’s “If This Goes On-“. Hate to mention him as a prophet, but here we are.
Baud
@Cameron: It’s the circle of
lifedisarray.Baud
@Geminid: It don’t affect me none. I’m strictly anti-fascist when it comes to voting. Everything else is gravy.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: This year???
WaterGirl
@Feckless: You are looking at this wrong. Totally backwards.
We would never have gotten this far without Chuck and Nancy.
Geminid
@Baud: Sounds like you may be a PINO.
germy
Baud
@Geminid:
I don’t think the problem in this case is the bipartisan nature of the bill. It’s about the process, and leverage. I think it’s that way for the Manchin/Sinema side too. Like I said above, nothing stops the House from voting on the bipartisan bill next year. They can afford to wait.
Baud
@Geminid:
I’m sure some would see me that way.
geg6
I say same. All or nothing and fuck these prima donnas who are no better than GQPers, letting No Labels and Mitch McConnell call the shots. Fuck them all sideways up the ass with a rusty chainsaw.
geg6
@debbie:
At this point, she’s right. She had already compromised and been betrayed. Quit blaming the wrong people. WTF.
Betty Cracker
@Geminid: Moving the bills in tandem was the original agreement among Democrats. The Republicans yelped alright, but that was the agreement among Democrats until Gottheimer and his clown posse blew it up. Even Biden said that was the agreement more than once, causing even more Republican yelping. Like everything else they do, the yelping was in bad faith because everyone knew the score.
taumaturgo
The infrastructure bill compromise is designed to avoid increasing taxes on the rich and is laden with pork for the rich with the infamous public/private projects. Privatization has proven to be the socialization of the profits for corporate power while the voters pay the -taxes- bills via tolls and fees. These new fees are in place to skid around the rich paying their fair share. Is a win-win for the plutocrats, with no tax increases and new sources of revenues by the exploration of the commons. This is a powerful reason for the pro-corporation democrats to enthusiastically endorse this deal and sink the social benefits infrastructure bill. This is the first time in a while that liberals could effectively use their leverage to support and protect Biden’s people agenda. Progressive should hold their ground for all or nothing.
germy
All this sausage being made. I can’t stand the sight of it anymore.
Geminid
@Old School: I miss a lot and could well have missed this. I just remember the negotiations over a bipartisan bill missing several deadlines, and then finally getting 20 Republican votes and all 50 Democratic.Then there was a round of repairs after Biden and Pelosi announced the linkage. The threat of folding the physical infrastructure initiatives into a reconciliation bill was used by the Democratic side throughout. But like I say, I miss plenty.
germy
germy
Steeplejack
@bwreed (money quote in #5):
germy
Yes.
dr. bloor
@Geminid:
No one has any problems with the bipartisan bill, and no one thinks it’s icky. The problem is that everyone knows the infrastructure bill will die a slow, painful death once the center gets theirs.
Cacti
OT but who did Kristi Noem (R-SD, Friend of Covid) piss off in the R party?
Earlier this week, it leaked it out that she was pulling strings for her sister’s real estate license. Today, it’s a story that she was boinking Corey Lewandowski. Both stories came from right wing websites.
Wyatt Salamanca
Kyrsten Sinema, the undisputed queen of snarky assholes:
h/t https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1443294107733053440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1443294107733053440%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fnews%2Fsinema-mockingly-dismisses-question-on-democrats-not-knowing-where-she-is-on-reconciliation-im-in-the-senate%2F
SmallAxe
Spot on and I’m determined to work as hard as I can that Sinema never sees office again.
Hoodie
@Baud: I don’t see how progressives torpedoing the BIF in response to failure of Manchin and Sinema to get on board will advantage Dems. Yeah, you may think that would make you look tough, but a lot, if not most, will view it as pathetic. It’s pretty clear that Manchin and Sinema don’t want to vote for any form of this reconciliation bill because they apparently have no counterproposal, i.e., their offer is nothing. They might vote for something else down the road, but they’ve kind of painted themselves into a corner on this one. If they give in now, they look like they caved to pressure from Pelosi, Schumer and the progressives, which undermines their brand (no matter how dumb that brand is). If the progressives are able to block the BIF in the House, Manchin and Sinema can just blame it on irresponsible, profligate leftists, irrespective of whether that is true.
This battle was somewhat determined when Biden and the leadership failed to get control of the message that the reconciliation bill is mainstream, not leftist, and does not increase the deficit. Of course, the moderates helped create this situation for various reasons, probably mostly venal and/or stupid. To me, it seems the best course would be for the progressives to hold their noses, vote for the BIF and then use Manchin and Sinema and their fellow travelers like Gottheim as reasons to elect more and better Democrats so they don’t have to depend on weathervanes like Manchin and Sinema. If you allow both the reconciliation bill and the BIF to fail, it will be wall to wall Biden failure narrative. You can’t get past the fact that Manchin and Sinema simply have a structural veto here and unlike, say, Nelson during the ACA negotiations, they can’t be bought off because they actively want nothing. I think they probably don’t care if the BIF fails, Manchin because he knows he’s probably going to lose his next election (if he even runs) and Sinema because she has 4 years to let people forget about this and 4 years to stuff her campaign coffers with corporate cash. If Schumer and Biden can’t sweet talk/arm twist them into doing something, there’s not much you can do.
WaterGirl
@germy: Sinema sounds like a snotty adolescent who thinks she is so smart. Not a good look on a grown woman.
Ksmiami
@SmallAxe: I left her a message this am saying how much I regretted financing her campaign and that she needs to get her head out of her own ass…
Geminid
I read that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is pressing Republican Congressmen to vote for the physical infrastructure bill. The Chamber is also running ads in the districts of some of the Democratic Representatives that it endorsed in 2020, telling them not to support the reconciliation package. The 20 endorsees include Sharice Davids of Kansas and Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. But all three won election in 2018 without the Chamber’s support, so they may not take the Chamber’s direction on this one.
Uncle Cosmo
What would be really instructive is a list of all those Democrats in the House who voted for Obamacare & then lost their seats in the 2010 elections.
I’m having no luck pulling those names up – but you can bet your arse every “centrist” Democrat in Congress knows them by heart. It’s going to be tough for Nancy & Co. to get those Reps to toe the party line if they suspect it’s another last-samurai charge.
(ETA: Replied to wrong comment, sorry – think it’s fixed now – should be lowtechcyclist at #56.)
Betty Cracker
@Old School: Yep, and that’s why it would be such a goddamned disaster and a betrayal if Democrats work with Republicans to pass the infrastructure bill without a reconciliation bill. That would be rewarding every bit of bad faith on the part of McConnell and his minions, McCarthy and his insane clown posse and the tiny faction of obstructionists within our own party.
It’s disheartening to see that there are folks among this usually very informed group of Democrats swallowing the bullshit framing that progressives are demanding the moon and stars. That’s 100% false. Everyone with the exception of the obstructionists want to get as much as much of the president’s agenda passed as possible, and the progressives have been team players who bargained in good faith.
Hoodie
@Cacti: She’s rumored to be on the short list for a Trump 2024 running mate. She’s also done some things, like opposing bans on corporate vaccine mandates, that offend the true believers. The Lewandowski rumor may be true, which would be a huge liability for a married mother of three in that crowd. It’s ok for a dude like Trump to boink porn stars, but not a woman. Take her out now before she gets more visibility.
dr. bloor
@Hoodie:
“Helped?” Kinda hard for Biden et al to not “fail” when they’re getting shivved by members of their own caucus.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Yeah, let’s hope we can prevent the GQP from framing that as a failure.
Jim Appleton
@Jeffro:
Ding! Ding! Ding!
dr. bloor
@Cacti: Never too early for DeSantis to try to clear his path to the nomination.
Old School
@Geminid:
Here’s a video of Biden talking about the dual track in the announcement of the deal. Manchin and Sinsema are standing next to him.
So it was certainly Biden’s plan throughout the entire process.
Baud
@Hoodie:
I can’t say you’re wrong, but I can’t say you’re right.
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: That’s all true, but it’s not what the general public will see, largely because the media will do what it always does. Some of that is because the messaging on the reconciliation bill has been ineffective, most people don’t know what’s in it and all they do know is that is costs 3.5 trillion, which is, of course, bullshit.
Cacti
@Hoodie: Makes sense.
Chris T.
I’ve got it!
Insert, into the bill, the following words:
and it will pass!
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Everything you said, Betty. Everything you said.
Edmund Dantes
The agreement in the senate among the Dems was everyone voted for this bipartisan one (if you can negotiate it) then we all vote for this reconciliation bill that we hammered out.
the liberals in the senate held up their end of the bargain. Now the house conaervadems (with Manchin & Sinema) are saying “no vote and pass it compteley without the reconciliation, then we will start to negotiate (ignoring they already did negotiate) on maybe doing something in reconciliation”
the liberals and progressives are correct to say “fuck that noise we never would have voted for a lot of the provisions in the bipartisan if we weren’t also getting the reconciliation”. So now they are returning the favor.
And somehow this is progressive/liberals fault that the conservadems reneged on the deal.
piratedan
@WaterGirl: inspired by the notion that she believes that she’s untouchable….
Which is fascinating if only for it’s own myopic viewpoint, as if she believes that if the Trumpies had popped into the Senate chambers while still populated by Senators that she would have been escorted to a comfy chair and provided a cool drink and some cookies.
some of these folks still firmly believe that with people as passionately round the bend as they are with ignoring sound medical advice as to inject horse de-wormer are going to adhere to any kind of societal norms while instigating a coup. In a way, they’re just as delusional as the press has been, perhaps because they exist in the same bubble
Geminid
@Cacti: The article I read about Noem’s purported Lewandowsi liason quoted an unnamed source that said their affair is an “open secret” among trump courtiers. So I suspect an enemy of Lewandowski is propagating the story.
Scullduggery within trump’s circle might well appall the inhabitants of a Byzantine court. trump is handing out so many endorsements for federal and state office that there must be influence peddling going on. trump is too lazy to be vetting these people himself, and has to rely on henchman with their own personal agendas. And they don’t trust or like each other, hence the Noem story.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie: The factor you’re leaving out of the equation: if the dozen or so obstructionist clowns in our caucus are rewarded for betraying their own party, it will split Democrats, and we will definitely lose at least the House in 2022, not just probably lose it. Also, the planet will bake unabated for another 10 years, potentially causing even more irreversible damage. If ever there was a time to hold the line, this is that time. IMO.
Hoodie
@dr. bloor: Of course, including stuff like Manchin mumbling nonsense about the deficit and inflation. But what are you going to do? He’s the 50th vote. I’m not sure there was a lot that Biden could have done to prevent this. Perhaps it might have been better to focus discussion of the reconciliation bill on getting back the tax giveaways given by Trump and the republicans and putting the shiv to big pharma, while soft pedaling all the programs that the bill would enable. That is actually why the GOP and folks like Sinema and Manchin are opposed — they don’t like the tax and Medicare portions.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: YES.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker:
Agreed. I think a lot is going on behind the scenes to prevent that scenario. Which may not make it into the press corpse’s losers losers Democrats reporting, and they’re all the same.
SmallAxe
@Ksmiami: thank you, same here both DC and AZ offices and she’s got the voice mail going for both of course
Betty Cracker
@Elizabelle: I’m sure you’re right, and I don’t think Biden, Schumer and Pelosi are without leverage here either. But it’s important not to go wobbly and demand passage of the infrastructure plan as a standalone bill because better that than nothing. Maybe I’m wrong, but I really think that could break us.
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: I think the question is, will they be rewarded? The Dems are likely to lose the House because of redistricting, voter suppression and extreme gerrymandering anyway. The conservadems are exactly the ones who will lose, the progressives are in relatively safe seats. I don’t think torpedoing the reconciliation bill will help conservadems keep their seats, but I think they believe they are even more likely to lose if it passes. This is not totally without reason, given what happened in 2010 after the ACA passed. The difference here is that the reconciliation bill is an amorphous object full of multiple moving parts and no clear message. The ACA was basically an affirmation that affordable (putting aside debates as to what that means) healthcare is a right. I don’t think the reconciliation bill has that kind of clarity, even though it has some great things in it, particularly on climate change. This was all caused because the Dems only have 50 seats in the Senate that still insists on maintaining the filibuster, and that dooms you to this kind of omnibus reconciliation bill with all its stupid requirements.
Tony Gerace
Gottheimer. My “representative” in the House. A few years ago nobody had heard of the guy. Now he’s achieved fame as the Kyrsten Sinema of the House (without the colorful hair styles). (The sad thing is that the Republican incumbent who he defeated in 2016 was even worse.)
dr. bloor
@Hoodie: I’d like to see him get on Air Force One for visits to WV and AZ to talk in great detail about the jobs that are going to result from some of the initiatives that Republicans dismiss out of hand as “giveaways” and “spending sprees.” Hell, even Wall Street standards like Moody’s like the deal.
Baud
@Tony Gerace:
The Republican is always worse.
topclimber
@Edmund Dantes: Baud mentioned earlier that Pelosi had some ways to delay Senate consideration of BIFI. In addition, Biden has the option of vetoing BIFI if BBA doesn’t pass.
My favorite would be a pocket veto–where he makes no decision to sign or not, but just waits for Congress to get him a bill so late in the session that it dies on the vine.
He should at least make noises about this so that the conserva-dems get the message. A veto makes Manchin like a total fail at bipartisanship, and Sinema gets so bored that she resigns. (Not so sure of the last thing actually happens, and well aware that GOP governor would appoint someone worse.)
Seriously, maybe the best hope is that we convince Lisa Murkowski and the Brow that launched a thousand quips to both be out of town when BBA is brought up on reconciliation. Then we only need 48 votes, none being Manchinema ones.
ETA: Freudian spell check slip turned WV’s favorite Dem senator into Mansion.
debbie
@geg6:
Bullshit. If more compromise is what it takes to get these things passed, then fucking do it already.
Hoodie
@dr. bloor: That’s all great, but a little late now. For the past several months it’s been all about “3.5 Trillion.” We need to better understand how the media operates on this sort of thing. They want conflict. Give it to them. Talking about the benefits of some bill is not going to move them and they’ll naturally gravitate to the topline cost of the programs because they’re lazy and stupid and that’s an easier narrative. Instead, do the FDR/TDR thing, attack the malefactors of great wealth, make those fuckers pay.
Geminid
@dr. bloor: There was some sniping at the physical infrastructure bill when it passed, and I think many on the left discount it’s value.
As for everybody “knowing” the human infrastructure bill will die a slow death, I think it’s more that they expect it to to be cut back to a 1.5 trillion dollars. Some consider that unacceptable, even though there was not even the possibility of a dollar going to human infrastructure initiatives before Warnock and Ossoff’s narrow wins in the Georgia runnoffs.
So I would be OK with taking what we can get. Between the Covid relief bill and two infrastructure bills, whatever level they are come out at, Democrats will be setting the table for a strong economy in 2022 and 2024. And that’s what wins elections, and keeps Republicans from gutting what programs we do pass.
I want all those programs in the $3.5 trillion proposal. But there are none that will be worthless if it takes until 2023 or 2025 to pass them. And there are none that will be worth much if Republicans take back the House and the Senate in2022, or the Presidency in 2024.
Climate change is an existential threat. And of course, the clean energy measures in the physical infrastructure package do not do enough. But they’ll do more than we were doing last year.
The 2018 IPCC report said the world has to achieve a carbon neutral economy by 2050. The U.S. has to come out of this decade on a path that will reach that goal. The only way we will is to keep Republicans out of power the next four election cycles. That is a heavy lift, but I think Democrats can do it. This is the principle I think I am applying to the one bill, two bill, no bill infrastructure controversy.
Ksmiami
@SmallAxe: as ive said before, there comes a point when both Sinema and Manchin are too much of a drag on our party…
Lauryn11
This one’s for you, KrystenSinema…
Thumbs Down Girl ??
She’s been living in her thumbs down world
With her pink Lycra dress and go go boots
And her suitcase full of Pharma loot
She’s oh, so cute.
The Senate waits while she rakes in the ca-a-ash
‘Zona recall her and take out the tra-a-ash
Thumbs Down Girl
She’s still living in her thumbs down world
Where she thinks she’s the next John McCain
But she’s really just a giant pain
Without a brain
Oh, happy day!
Now she’s made up her mi-i-ind
To get her roots done or send
Mitch a valentine!
Will someone call her bluff?
Haven’t we had enough
Of our Thumbs Down Girl?
Our Thumbs Down Girl!
She’s all a twirl
Thumbs Down Girl
Our Thumbs Down Girl!??
(apologies to Billy Joel)
SpaceUnit
Apologies if this question has already been addressed, but can someone explain what timelines / deadlines apply to this whole messy legislative goat rope?
ETA: Both in regards to a government shutdown and beyond?
prostratedragon
@germy:
“We Were Animals,” [Not Our First] Goat Rodeo
Bnad
Even if the Dems wanted to sink both bills at this point, that might be tricky to engineer. If Dem leadership comes out against both bills, the Republicans immediately move en masse to support the BIF, and then the BIF passes with mostly R support and becomes an election talking point, or the BIF fails with most Rs supporting it and it becomes “the Republican infrastructure bill that was defeated by the Democrats.”
Ksmiami
Further; and as Rude pundit says- Sinema has been so disrespectful to Biden and to other Democrats it’s appalling and there needs to be payback
Another Scott
tl;dr – No “trillions” (so probably < $2T); Means testing of new programs; No punitive taxes; Must be paid for (so the inflation monster doesn't kill us in our beds).
So, there's space to come up with an agreement. And I'm reminded that the way the legislation is written matters a lot…
FWIW.
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
I thought the bill was never not paid for.
Ksmiami
@Another Scott:
I wish I could live in your unicorn world…
MisterForkbeard
@Baud: It was always paid for. But often with things that Sinema and Manchin have now said they don’t want to do.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie: The answer to that question is obvious: if two groups enter into a two-part agreement and one party reneges but still gets the payoff while the other gets nothing, the party that got the payoff is rewarded while the other party is screwed.
Might it be a Pyrrhic victory? Well sure. But still, it’s not just “the progressives” who will get screwed in that scenario; it’s the vast majority of the Democratic congressional caucus plus Biden and most importantly, the people who voted in the Democrats — that’s who’s getting screwed by that bad-faith behavior. It’s unacceptable.
As for the ACA, that’s apples and oranges, IMO. One problem with the ACA — again, mostly due to bad-faith Republicans and conservadems — was that the benefits were so back-loaded that lots of people didn’t see the value right away. Lots of people STILL don’t. Free community college, child tax credits, lower Rx prices, etc., could make millions of people’s lives better in a non-abstract way right now.
Maybe there’s a messaging problem for the bill, but that sort of thing can be addressed. I’m not sure caving in to corrupt saboteurs can be messaged away.
Geminid
@Baud: If you want those infrastructure dollars flowing by next Spring, the physical infrastructure bill needs to pass this Fall.
And I was joking with the PINO jibe. It’s a word we may see some of in the future, though. Maybe when the Democrats get a 250 seat House majority, which could happen if the 2024 elections come out right.
Another Scott
@SpaceUnit: 1) The fiscal year ends midnight 9/30. Without a CR, (some of) the government will shut down. Few expect that to happen – a CR will almost certainly be passed.
2) Yellen estimated that Treasury will not be able to pay all bills on time in mid-October. The Democratic leadership is still working on how to address that given the GQP’s intransigence. I assume that a solution will be found, but the path isn’t clear yet.
3) The existing Transportation acts expire on 9/30. Pelosi wanted to pass the BIF by then so there would be no disruption to transportation projects. That almost certainly isn’t going to happen. There’s been some talk about putting some money in the CR to help transportation projects continue; others have said it won’t help. Dunno. AFAIK, there is no deadline before early January 2023 (when this Congress expires) for them to pass the BIF. But they want to be able to campaign on it, and projects start slowly and take years, so they all want it passed as quickly as possible to be able to claim credit in the November 2022 elections.
4) Reconciliation bills are annual. If the “$3.5T” bill doesn’t pass this year, they have to start over next year. The GQP wants to kill it in its bed. Democrats want to pass it now because it will mean millions of good jobs, help for families, and lots of good stuff that will even start addressing climate change in a serious way. It probably won’t get easier next year, so it’s best to do it now – even if Democrats cannot get the whole $3.5T because of S&M. There’s always tweaks that can be made next year (Congress loves tax cuts, etc., in election years).
The most likely path is for 3 & 4 to happen nearly simultaneously, with no GQP support for #4. Timing is unclear, but likely after mid-October is my guess (unless someone finds a way for everyone on Team D to win before then).
That’s my understanding. Corrections welcome. HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
TriassicSands
@Jeffro:
She may be working on lucrative future employment. She can’t be confident about retaining her seat, so lining up a cushy job — lots of money, not much work — seems like a pretty typical move for a corrupt senator.
First comes the money and if that doesn’t get her re-elected, she gets a nice job. Joe Manchin provides a great role model for her to follow.
Ksmiami
Welp- Manchin came out pretty strong against reconciliation so I think Biden’s agenda is pretty much DOA as is our majorities… drag the people responsible
Elizabelle
@Geminid:
What is PINO? Add a T, and it’s a delicious wine. But without the T???
J R in WV
@Jeffro:
Right! Ya’ll send me 3 million, 72 skillion dollars, and I’ll talk to Manchin and Sinema about their positions. Then I’ll move to the Cayman Islands!!! ;~)
Another Scott
@Baud: He cares about the kinds of taxes and tax changes, is what he’s saying (no eat the rich, I guess). How that translates into what he’ll accept, dunno.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
SpaceUnit
@Another Scott: Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate it very much.
guachi
The only rational response to Manchin’s insane statement today TWO DAYS before the fiscal year ends is to torpedo his precious bipartisan bill.
Another Scott
@Elizabelle: Progressive In Name Only, I assume.
Cheers,
Scott.
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: I agree in the sense that the messaging battle is probably already lost. I don’t see a lot of value in Pyrrhic victories in politics. Just remember who fucked you over and put a shiv in them when you have the first real opportunity to do so. Biden and his allies could sink Sinema in 2024 if they want to, they have 4 years to come up with someone to primary her. Killing the BIF now won’t hurt her now, and 4 years is a long time from now. Manchin will probably be gone anyway, so he’s pretty much a lost cause. I think Sinema thinks folks will forget this in 4 years, but that’s a gamble and there is also the likelihood she will continue to be stupid and give them more reasons to sabotage her. She doesn’t know who her real friends are. You can’t fix stupid.
Ksmiami
@guachi: agreed fuck him forever
Ksmiami
@Another Scott: Spoiler alert – he’s torpedoing the Dems.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
An all GOP government failed to get any infrastructure passed. Even if all we get is the compromise bill, it will get touted as a success that the GOP (and Trump specifically) failed to get done. If both tank, its just a failure. Period.
I agree that Manchin and Sinema WANT reconcilliation to fail. That is the reality. I don’t think, and I really hope I’m wrong, that there are the votes for both.
dr. bloor
@Bnad:
If leadership decides to come out against both bills, neither will ever see a floor vote.
A Good Woman
@dr. bloor:
The absence of a bill is not The Squad’s fault, but they have made it crystal clear that without the reconciliation bill in hand they won’t vote for the infrastructure bill. Jayapal has been front and center on this issue. If Manchin and Sinema scuttle the recon bill in the Senate and the House progressives scuttle the infrastructure bill, that looks like a loss for Biden and the country. The GQP ads for the midterms will write themselves. I fail to see an upside to that.
I am not usually this pessimistic, but right now I am.
Geminid
@Old School: I think this was Biden’s plan. It was Speaker Pelosi’s also. But when she announced Monday that the physical infrastructure would be voted on Thursday, she had changed the plan. Rightly or wrongly, many (but not all) members of the Progressive Caucus would not go along.
Right now there seem to be multiple possible outcomes to this wrangle. One may be that Biden changes his plan and backs passing the bill this week, with some figleaf covering the lack of certainty as to passing a robust human infrastructure package. It may not turn out that way, but if it does I’m not going to judge Biden or Pelosi as weak, but as pragmatic.
Edmund Dantes
@Baud: that was before Manchin moved the goalposts.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie: We’ll have to agree to disagree on that. I think bending over and letting bad-faith actors bone you repeatedly provides an incentive for a repetition of that behavior. I consider myself a committed and fairly knowledgeable Democrat, and I can tell you I will be absolutely disgusted and demoralized if this happens. I don’t have to imagine the effect on less attached voters. We saw it in 2010.
dr. bloor
@A Good Woman:
Not sure how to break this to you, but the Dems are probably going to lose at least one and possibly both chambers anyways. And if nihilist “Centrists” tank the reconcilliation bill, the sound of Democrats staying home will be deafening and lead to certain defeat.
geg6
@debbie:
Jesus fucking Christ. Have you paid attention to any of this until right this minute? The conservadems are the ones refusing to compromise. Neither Manchin nor Sinema have answered the question about what they would like to see, whether it’s been asked by the media, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi or the fucking President. Sinema has said out loud that she won’t name anything until her shitty infrastructure bill is passed. No fucking way. She has already betrayed us all and that stupid piece of shit should not get her crappy bill so that, in a week or two, she can prance around the Senate floor giving a thumbs down to anything that doesn’t benefit her corporate donors and her No Labels advisors just like she did with the minimum wage increase. Fuck her and fuck you.
Ksmiami
@dr. bloor: the mistake was even trying- Americans can’t see past their own driveways. Getting thru the pandemic and getting out of Afghanistan are significant accomplishments; the fact that in so many ways we are a backwater shit hole nation is a historic reality..,
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: If the physical infrastructure passes as a stand alone bill, it will do so with support of 95% of the House Democratic Caucus. I doubt if more than a dozen Republican votes can be had. Would this split the Democratic Party? There may be outrage on the part of some liberals, but how long-lived? Will your hard feelings about giving in to Manchin, Gottheimer and the rest keep you from voting for Val Demings next year? Most Democrats I know are mad at the party for one reason or another and still vote in elections. I don’t think this controversy will change that however it is resolved.
Another Scott
Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer should print out the things Manchin ran on – https://joemanchinwv.com/the-issues – and tell him he has the opportunity to get those things with the Reconciliation bill.
Sinema is, er, different. Her campaign website doesn’t have an Issues section. (!!!). Let’s see…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_Ie7AY1rjM (3:20) is her campaign announcement video. No real issues there, but lots and lots of pablum. And “fixing a broken Washington” stuff. So, she’s sticking to that script, so far… :-/
There’s a path forward. Manchin is gettable. Sinema, as others have said, won’t be the single outlier. She’ll go along eventually.
But, we’ll see…
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@geg6: tell it. Manchin and Sinema are bad faith actors… let em go
Ksmiami
@Another Scott: Stop it- you’re embarrassing: if this was a business deal, it would have already been abruptly canceled. It’s over
Elizabelle
@dr. bloor:
Stop that talk. I am serious. It is way too early. We have not had a single vote cast yet.
I don’t come here to hang out with Eeyores or surrender monkeys, and declaring a loss more than a year ahead of time is ridiculous.
Another Scott
@Ksmiami: Your trolling is tiresome.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Elizabelle: PINO: Progressive In Name Only. Like RINO.
Elizabelle
@Another Scott: Pie the fucker. I think he/she/it gets some perverse pleasure out of all the doomspeaking. Life is too short to deal with that.
debbie
@geg6:
Fuck Manchin AND Sinema. They aren’t the only impediments. Pressley wants everything rolled into one bill, including the human infrastructure bill that’s what, up to like 7.5 trillion now? I don’t care what unicorn you’ve ridden in on, that is never going to happen.
Pass reconciliation and the regular infrastructure bill, and then fight over the rest. GET SOMETHING DONE NOW. This is EXACTLY what McConnell wants. NOTHING.
“Well, we really tried” is a lousy campaign slogan. It won’t work.
And by the way, i say FUCK YOU to No Labels just as vehemently as I say it to you.
debbie
@Baud:
I think someone needs to check her phone records and see if she’s been communicating with McConnell or his minions. I don’t care if it’s illegal, but if she’s the GOP’s Manchurian candidate, the world ought to know about it.
Geminid
@guachi: That infrastructure bill will create a lot of goodpaying jobs. They might be just for dump truck drivers, bridge painters, and steel fabricators, or tracklayers for humdrum conventional rail, but working class Anericans need more of these jobs, and we as a nation need a thriving working class.
Ksmiami
@Elizabelle: fuck you too… it’s reality not doom trolling
GoBlueInOak
@A Good Woman: Its a climate arson highway bill. Its not a benefit. Its a cost. An acceptable cost is we get a paired social welfare bill out of it.
If its a stand-alone climate arson bill, then kill the bill.
GoBlueInOak
@guachi: Precisely. Its a highway spending climate arson bill with a small handful of progressive goodies put on the tree as little shiny beads hoping to distract milquetoast libs from the fact that its largely a climate arson bill.
Its NOT a benefit, its a cost. An acceptable cost if paired with a social welfare bill. (And a social welfare bill that does NOT need to be $3.5T but DOES need to be meaningfull in size)
Otherwise, kill the bill. If you are too afraid to lose that you will accept anything, you are basically pre-agreeing to play the permanent patsy to the GOP.