Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

I really should read my own blog.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

The willow is too close to the house.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

We still have time to mess this up!

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

I did not have telepathic declassification on my 2022 bingo card.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

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NY-19

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I wanted to put up a quick thread on last night’s results in the special election in New York’s 19th district, where Pat Ryan beat a decent Republican candidate, Marc Molinaro. The pre-Dobbs polling showed the race leaning towards Molinaro, but Ryan outperformed Biden’s 2020 margin in the district and won with 52% of the vote. There’s a lot of excitement about the role of Dobbs here, rightly so. It’s a winner for Democrats and we should pound it hard.

In addition to all the other good reasons that Dobbs was a factor, part of the New York-specific aspect of it is that we all know that a Republican Congress will try to pass a nationwide ban on abortion and, ultimately, contraception. Governor Kathy Hochul has been pounding away at the message that New York is a haven for women who need abortions, and the New York Legislature appropriated money for abortion providers to expand access. The second round of this funding ($25 million) is targeted at areas (including where I live) where women from out of state can come and have abortions or other reproductive care.

With the capping of the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction, New Yorkers saw that Republicans were willing to target and punish them. (Whatever you think of SALT as a general principle, the cap’s purpose was to punish, not for any “progressive” reason.) We know that Republicans are coming for us, and that’s a motivator over and above the many other reasons people will come to the polls because of Dobbs.

Reader Interactions

198Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    The best part about the win is that we don’t have to spend the next few weeks hearing the media talk about how Dems failed to win.

  2. 2.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Since this is an open thread, I guess I should repost here what I just posted in the now-presumably-deceased lower thread:

    This article in Rolling Stone says that Trump is demanding that his lawyers get ‘his’ documents back, which he defines as all of the ones taken from Mar-A-Lago.  Not just the stuff like communications with his attorneys, he wants the top secret documents and all of that, and he is royally pissed that his property has been taken.

  4. 4.

    Kay

    Oh, Mistermix no one cares about womens rights or basic bodily autonomy.

    No one other than voters, apparently.

    Political media got it wrong. They missed the story because they made a decision no one cared about this issue before a single vote had been cast.

    There’s still time to start covering this story! They could fix the error! Put some resources and reporters into the fall out and consequences from the loss of this basic right.

  6. 6.

    piratedan

    watching MSNBC last night, the punditocracy is extremely reluctant to admit that the GOP has stuck their elective fork into the voting outlet.

    They continue to claim that the economy is in mortal peril, despite the jobs, unemployment and trending of prices for gas as the supply line issues post pandemic get straightened out.

    they are still dubious about the impact of Roe and Dobbs

    they still are promoting numbers from May on Biden’s favorability

    and no one seems to understand that there is an impact for the Government doing actual legislation, with guns, climate change, economic investment all taking place….

    all hail the narrative…. despite their own polls showing that 20+% are stating that maintaining democratic institutions is the number one issue.

    we haven’t even hit the 2nd season of J6 hearings yet,  not to mention watching Trump’s stealing of government documents continue to unravel in real time.

    there are times when I wish they paid as much attention to these events as we do.

  8. 8.

    germy shoemangler

    Re. #NY19: I’m obviously glad Ryan won, and I certainly hope it’s a sign for November, but given that Biden won the district by 1.5 pts is the main reason it’s SUCH a big deal mostly because it being a special election should’ve favored the R?

    — Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 (@charles_gaba) August 24, 2022

    It was Trump +7 in 2016. So it was the prime type of district you'd expect to see a reversion in for Republicans to win in November.

    Add to that, they drafted a very strong candidate and outspent Dems. https://t.co/eXAtCbnxA1

    — What Biden Has Done (@What46HasDone) August 24, 2022

  9. 9.

    piratedan

    @MattF: yeah, those documents that the FBI “planted”, are actually his…. for fuck sake, will someone arrest this motherfucker?

  10. 10.

    Baud

    Biden has released student loan relief plan.

    ETA
    Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Student Loan Pause Extension Through December 31 and Targeted Debt Cancellation to Smooth Transition to Repayment

  11. 11.

    RaflW

    Eric Loomis and some others were late-night speculating what a GOP House with, say, a 5 vote majority would be like. The joke was “six months in, they’ll have voted for articles of impeachment against Joe and Kamala, but won’t have been able to successfully agree on a Speaker.”

    It is incredibly, indelibly important that we hold and expand our margin in the Senate — and I think we can squeak out a narrow hold of the House!  The level of chaos and dark shenanigans with a divided Congress would be total press catnip, and further democracy-spiraling-the-drain.

    LFG.

  15. 15.

    RaflW

    @Baud: OTOH, because the Dem won, this will vanish into the ether of “but mah midterm narrative, culled from decades of unyielding conventional wisdom.” See ABC’s chief political correspondent, eg.

    @rickklein · 12h
    ABC News reports Democrat Pat Ryan is projected to win the NY-19 special election. One last special win for Dems going into what’s likely to be a rough fall.

  16. 16.

    cain

    The Dobbs decision will also affect our conservative blue dog catholic/evangelical Democrats. Stories of women having to bring to term dead babies and putting their lives at risk – that will also drive them from supporting pro-women life legislation.

    Dobbs has coalesced focus for women that their rights cannot be taken for granted and that there needs to be laws specifically to protect women’s health.

  19. 19.

    NeenerNeener

    @Frankensteinbeck:  Someday, probably long after I’m dead, someone will do a multi-season tv drama based on the Trump family. Depending on the broadcasting decency rules at the time they may have to omit some of Donnie’s sleazier practices for television. And the viewers will assume it’s exaggerated when it’s actually been toned down from how awful that family really is.

  20. 20.

    Scout211

    @Frankensteinbeck: I am one of many who look forward to hearing what his attorneys can come up with to resubmit his request for a “special master” to the judge (appointed by Trump). She is asking, “WTF is this sh*t you filed?! Fix it by Friday or you’re out of luck, loser!”*

    *Paraphrased, maybe. 😉

  21. 21.

    VOR

    Since open thread, I want to bring news from the Minnesota gubernatorial election. The Republican  position is that current Dem governor Walz was a tyrant during COVID with restrictions and mandates. The Republican candidate Dr. Scott Jensen MD is a full-blown anti-vaxer who was a key spreader of COVID mis-information. Back in April he spoke at an event called “MaskOffMN” run by an anti-vax group which called the government’s response to COVID “a fraud”. http://minnesotareformer.com/briefs/jensen-yes-i-was-comparing-covid-19-restrictions-to-nazism/

    Back in April, Jensen said the steps taken to curb COVID-19 spread were comparable to Adolf Hitler’s rise to power, citing Kristallnacht — two nights in November when violent mobs destroyed synagogues, businesses and homes. Likening COVID-19 policies to a repeat of Nazism were justifiable, Jensen said in a video posted to his campaign Facebook page on Tuesday.

    Now he has doubled down on this comparison, saying “he’s allowed to analyze and think about things how he sees fit.”

  22. 22.

    Zzyzx

    @Baud: this is somewhat buried with the 10k news but could be huge.

    The Department is also proposing a rule to create a new income-driven repayment plan that will substantially reduce future monthly payments for lower- and middle-income borrowers. The proposed rule would protect more income from loan payments. It would cut in half—from 10% to 5% of discretionary income—the amount that borrowers have to pay each month on their undergraduate loans, while borrowers with both undergraduate and graduate loans will pay a weighted average rate. It would also raise the amount of income that is considered nondiscretionary income and therefore protected from repayment. The rule would also forgive loan balances after 10 years of payments, instead of the current 20 years under many income-driven repayment plans, for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. Additionally, the proposed rule would fully cover the borrower’s unpaid monthly interest, so that—unlike with current income-driven repayment plans—a borrower’s loan balance will not grow so long as they are making their required monthly payments. The plan would also simplify borrowers’ choices among loan repayment plans.

  23. 23.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Scout211:

    She is asking, “WTF is this sh*t you filed?! Fix it by Friday or you’re out of luck, loser!”*

    She’s apparently not just a Trump appointee, but a VERY Trumpy judge.  These incompetents can’t even satisfy someone begging for an excuse to rule in their favor.

  24. 24.

    Kropacetic

    @VOR: Now he has doubled down on this comparison, saying “he’s allowed to analyze and think about things how he sees fit.”

    Yes, and people are allowed to critique that analysis. Why is it so hard for Republicans to understand that second part?

  27. 27.

    Barbara

    @Kay: Women are invisible.  Female voters over the age of 40 are especially invisible to a certain kind of male that is definitely overrepresented in the ranks of highly placed news executive.

  28. 28.

    Another Scott

    @Baud:

    Twitterized:

    In keeping with my campaign promise, my Administration is announcing a plan to give working and middle class families breathing room as they prepare to resume federal student loan payments in January 2023.

    I'll have more details this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/kuZNqoMe4I

    — President Biden (@POTUS) August 24, 2022

    Looks good – more than expected, and more for those who likely need it (Pell grant recipients), but not free money for everyone, Amen.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  29. 29.

    germy shoemangler

    Best voting advice: “A vote is not a valentine, you aren't confessing your love for the candidate. It's a chess move for the world you want to live in.”

    — Mohamad Safa (@mhdksafa) August 22, 2022

  30. 30.

    Miss Bianca

    @wegners shoppers club member mistermix: Yay, DougJ!

    @Kay: Every time I keep seeing one of these “Oh, Republicans will totally take back the House this November!” I, like DougJ, think of one word: Dobbs.

    And then think of Congreve’s couplet that has long since survived the play in which these words were uttered: Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned, nor Hell a fury like a woman scorned.

    I am not only hoping, but at this point, positively expecting, that there’s a Democratic victory wipeout fueled by furious women that leaves Republicans *and* pundits (but I repeat myself) picking their jaws up off the floor in November and bleating, “but wha…wha…*happened*?” like poleaxed sheep.

  31. 31.

    Scout211

    So Lindsey was back in front of the judge demanding that he should not be questioned by anyone about anything. related to Georgia elections.

    He was just “investigating.”

    Graham said that the conduct Willis has signaled she is interested in questioning – including phone calls Graham had with Georgia election officials about the state’s review of the ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election – were part of an informal investigation he was conducting as part of his duties as a US senator.
    The South Carolina Republican pointed to several examples of legislative activity that he said was connected to the conduct in Georgia that the District Attorney now wants to question him about. He cited research he was doing before voting to certify Joe Biden’s election win, legislation he has co-sponsored to amend the Electoral Count Act and elections-related hearings he presided over when he chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee.
    “Because all the District Attorney has in fact sought are materials central to this protected investigation and the motives behind it, complete quashal remains appropriate,” Graham’s brief said. To the extent the court disagrees, he wrote, the court “should at least partially quash or modify the Subpoena to prohibit any questioning about the investigation and the motives behind it.”

  33. 33.

    Barbara

    @Frankensteinbeck: I am sure they filed in her district with the idea that she would be sympathetic.  I don’t understand why this motion would not be filed with the court that already has jurisdiction over the pending motion to unseal the affidavit, and that issued the warrant.  I think the new judge has already raised this issue.

    Basically, they are trying to substitute a special master to opine on executive privilege as if executive privilege is not a contested a legal issue — and thus create some kind of conflict over its existence, when they failed to raise this issue or contest either of the subpoenas (grand jury and earlier GJ) on the basis that it sought materials that were subject to executive privilege.  Well, they did raise the issue with the agency, and the agency disagreed, and at that point, they could have officially resisted the subpoena by moving to quash on the basis of executive privilege.

    That’s what they should have done.  Running into court to effectively oppose a search warrant after ignoring (basically) two subpoenas is, umm, too irregular for a judge to ignore.

  35. 35.

    Brachiator

    With the capping of the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction, New Yorkers saw that Republicans were willing to target and punish them. (Whatever you think of SALT as a general principle, the cap’s purpose was to punish, not for any “progressive” reason.) We know that Republicans are coming for us, and that’s a motivator over and above the many other reasons people will come to the polls because of Dobbs.

    Excellent points. Thanks for putting this election into context.

  36. 36.

    Old School

    @RaflW:

    Despite my being rather on here, I don’t know what ‘the Kessler debacle’ is.

    Wasn’t he one of the people trying to say the Indiana minor who had to travel out of the state for an abortion didn’t exist?

    But perhaps there has been something else since then.

  38. 38.

    Kropacetic

    @Scout211: “should at least partially quash or modify the Subpoena to prohibit any questioning about the investigation and the motives behind it.”

    This investigation was carried out, after all, in good faith; with no ulterior political motives and not flying in the face of existing evidence with respect to the validity of the 2020 election results.

  41. 41.

    RaflW

    @VOR: Meanwhile, the wife of well-known MN Republican state senator Jim Abler has been tweeting about mask nazis and even said “heil hitler” in one (possibly since deleted) tweet.

    Even out here on the above average prairie, the GOP is spinning like the racist, insane top it has become (always was?). They have to be crushed in November voting!

  44. 44.

    Jackie

    @Dangerman: Ah, but he did! The latest reports are saying TFG PERSONALLY went through all the documents he stole from the government, keeping the ones he wanted to keep, and sending back the 15 boxes early 2022.

    So, he knew exactly what documents he had – for whatever reasons he meant to do with them.

  45. 45.

    Bill Arnold

    @germy shoemangler:
    Yeah.
    A poll several days before the special election, with margin of error roughly 3 percent (1200 participants), underestimated Democratic strength by roughly 10 percent,
    https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/8/dfp_ny_19_2022s_toplines.pdf
    The November 2022 elections are in play! The electoral predictive models are broken. Not clear by how much yet and there will be regional differences, but the election is looking like an actually fight.

  46. 46.

    Brachiator

    @NeenerNeener:

    Someday, probably long after I’m dead, someone will do a multi-season tv drama based on the Trump family.

    Game of Trumps?

    House Trump: The Donald never pays his debts.

  47. 47.

    RaflW

    @Zzyzx: That all sounds good, but my god what a complicated and classically Democratic policy. It’s the kind of byzantine bureaucratic response that means well but makes eyes glaze, heads spin, and earns nothing electorally.

    Sorry to crap on a worthwhile goal, but: Simplify it.
    Waive it or just say remaining loans under $12K become zero-interest to the borrower now! That, people understand! (If the bank still gets their usury, well, that’s capitalism. But for the borrower, zero-interest is a win! For this to be a vote getter it has to be EASY. Gaaaaah.)

  50. 50.

    RaflW

    @VOR: Oh, and Jensen quoted Martin Niemöller’s “first they came for…” in his frakin’ defense. Christ, what an asshole.

  51. 51.

    rikyrah

    🐝⚖️ Mary Peltola for AK-01 (@Needle_of_Arya) tweeted at 1:52 AM on Wed, Aug 24, 2022:
    the “equality feels like oppression” phrase is the exact legal mentality driving the rollback of any measure to execute restorative racial economic justice and give legal relief to those denied an opportunity to maintain or advance themselves

     

    🐝⚖️ Mary Peltola for AK-01 (@Needle_of_Arya) tweeted at 2:02 AM on Wed, Aug 24, 2022:
    clinging to the dictionary definition of racism, “the discrimination against someone because of their skin color or ethnicity” (since modified by Oxford & Webster because it was being misused for political purposes) is how white conservatives plan to resist racial justice
    (https://twitter.com/Needle_of_Arya/status/1562334457616637952?t=bw5uaZhDdb0MGvTC-aFu4g&s=03)

  52. 52.

    Barbara

    @germy shoemangler: I cannot and will not say whether polls are overstating Republican strength, but what annoys me greatly is the lack of transparency by pollsters in telling people that part of the results reflects their own judgment about which demographic class of responders will actually be voting, and in what proportion.  This makes their confidence levels even less accurate, apart from whatever inaccuracy is already baked in based on the number of voters sampled, especially when broken down by category.

  55. 55.

    Barbara

    @rikyrah: Mountain Brook is the wealthy suburb just outside of Birmingham.  It is the town where Natalee Holloway was from.  I will not make predictions, but an awful lot of women who are inclined to vote Republican may really resent the effort to turn them into Stepford wives and Handmaids.  Also, it is probably a community that highly prizes its public schools and circles the wagons against people who might threaten them.

  57. 57.

    RaflW

    @Barbara: Definitely anecdata, but there were a number of threads last night on the twitt-box about low GOP voter enthusiasm and R’s not hitting expected levels.

    It might turn out that repeatedly telling your base that elections are rigged and phony may be a GOTV turnoff? Huh.

  58. 58.

    Brachiator

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Not just the stuff like communications with his attorneys, he wants the top secret documents and all of that, and he is royally pissed that his property has been taken.

    I still don’t understand how an ex president gets to keep or claim documents. I thought that there was a standard set of procedures followed to transition from an outgoing president to a new president.

    However, a reporter on one of the news stations claimed that the National Archive people have had to negotiate with other presidents about access to documents, but never to this extent. Unfortunately, nobody expanded on this.

    What is tiresome about this is it is yet another instance of Trump deliberately pushing or violating norms in order to satisfy his own gross ego needs.

    The farce continues.

  59. 59.

    Miss Bianca

    @rikyrah: OK, maybe, just maybe, Crist isn’t the tool I thought he was.

    And goddamn, seriously, this should be EVERY Democrat’s response!

  61. 61.

    Kropacetic

    @rikyrah: Now that Trump stole documents and nearly EVERY Republican defended him, I don’t trust them with our nation’s secrets. Defeating them during the midterms is now a question of national security.

    If a President Republican does it, that means it is not illegal.

  63. 63.

    Urza

    @Kay: If they did put those resources onto the topic, they would have to admit they were wrong initially, which isn’t going to happen.  And just by talking about it they would drive down Republican numbers, which they are even less likely to do than admitting they were wrong.

  64. 64.

    Kropacetic

    @rikyrah: “Senior citizens have misused social security and that’s why i want it to sunset.”

    They use these payments on (life-saving) drugs instead of going out to get a job…

  66. 66.

    BC in Illinois

    @NeenerNeener:

    Someday, probably long after I’m dead, someone will do a multi-season tv drama based on the Trump family.

    It will be based on the definitive biography,

    Failure: The Donald Trump Story

    1. Childhood
    2. Education
    3. The Vietnam Years
    4. The Family Business
    5. Early Lawsuits
    6. Marriages and Beauty Pageants
    7. Corruption and Bankruptcies
    8. Football, Vodka, Magazines, Universities
    9. [The Television Tapes]
    10. Help from Russia
    11. Birtherism and Politics
    12. Campaign
    13. White House: Grift and Maladministration
    14. Russia, Russia, Impeachment
    15. Covid
    16. Defeat 2020
    17. The Insurrection
    18. Impeachment Again
    19. The Mar-A-Lago Years
    20. The Noose Tightens
    21. …
    22. …
    23. The Final Years
  67. 67.

    Kay

    @Miss Bianca:

    Every time I keep seeing one of these “Oh, Republicans will totally take back the House this November!” I, like DougJ, think of one word: Dobbs.

    I don’t know if it will be determinative, but the complete dismissal of it as an issue just bewildered me.
    There’s no rational explanation for it, which makes me think bias came into play. What a weird thing to so confidently predict, en masse, that this huge legal and social change just isn’t important. WTF with that? They pulled it out of their ass.

  68. 68.

    Redshift

    @Dangerman:

    Can’t we just send him reams of blank paper with cool looking cover sheets? It’s not like he is going to read the fucking things.

    How about the same cover sheets with plausible-looking fake documents? That way when the info pops up elsewhere, we can identify some of the foreign agents that Mar-a-Lago is no doubt infested with.

  69. 69.

    Kropacetic

    @Kay: I don’t know if it will be determinative, but the complete dismissal of it as an issue just bewildered me.
    There’s no rational explanation for it, which makes me think bias came into play.

    Not something one has to worry about from a comfy NYC or DC office suite.

  71. 71.

    Kay

    @Urza:

    The NYTimes has women write editorials about their horrible pregnancy experiences and why abortion shuld remain legal.

    Editorials. Unpaid work. I guess I should be grateful it’s mentioned at all, but it’s so unimportant they’re not going to pay women to write about it or invest in the coverage? Fuck them.

  74. 74.

    Geminid

    @Brachiator: Republicans cut the SALT deduction to punish blue states, but also to boost tax cutting local and state candidates who want to turn New Jersey into Tennessee and Connecticut into South Carolina.

  76. 76.

    Elizabelle

    @RaflW:

    One last special win for Dems going into what’s likely to be a rough fall.

    Rick Klein should be reassigned.  Although he is no doubt messaging as his corporate masters pay him to do so.  Having to pay more in taxes.  Icky.

    What are these political horserace aficionados, anyway?  Were they moonlighting preparing estimates of Russian military ability?

    Facts on the ground.  Change things.  Dumbass.

  78. 78.

    Kropacetic

    @MattF: Trump: You owe your job to me, I demand relief.

    Judge, channeling Adam Lambert: What do you want from me?

    @rikyrah:So DEMOCRATS can heal the wound REPUBULICANS caused.

    Bipartisanship.

  79. 79.

    Barbara

    @Kay: Because it introduces complexity into their narrative.  The “midterm” narrative is, “the president’s party loses.” Never mind that, for instance, Democrats gained seats in 1998, after Clinton’s impeachment, which suggests that overreaching by one party can reshape the “expected” outcome.  I don’t know how or what they might do to investigate the impact of Dobbs, but it’s obvious they aren’t even trying.  And the fact that, at least on its face, the issue of abortion principally relates to women makes it even less appealing.  Like they would be admitting that they feel like they are being p**sy whipped if they take female issues seriously, and they apparently lack the imagination to understand that threats to abortion and contraception might, ahem, affect their own lives and preferred lifestyle, let alone that of their daughters. Just fucking clueless and casual misogyny in other words.

  80. 80.

    MazeDancer

    NY-19 is my district. Of course, I voted for Ryan.

    But couple of observations.

    1) I had never heard of  Ryan. He is the County Executive of Ulster County, home of Woodstock. But that is across the Hudson River.

    Molinaro, not a crazy person, basic white guy, is the County Executive of Dutchess County, frequently a GOP stronghold, but it is changing. Why? Pandemic influx. Gentrification. Trump is too much for some GOP.

    Alas, some hunting-rifle Trump owners live on my street. But no less than 3 former regular homes have been purchased by NYC remote workers and are being massively expanded.

    2) Never saw an ad for either candidate. But unless they buy MSNBC, don’t know how I would.

    Where is the Dem digital strategy? My local Dems email alert when it’s time to vote. Which I appreciate.

    3) Saw zero Molinaro yard signs. Couple of Ryans. GOP enthusiasm off for the first time ever.

  84. 84.

    Calouste

    @rikyrah: It might be that those campaigns were “organized” to skim all those juicy funds right into the pockets of the candidates and their consultants.

  89. 89.

    delphinium

    UGH! The odious Claudia Tenney won her primary for the updated NY24 district (John Katko’s seat-he is retiring). There is a Dem challenger, Steven Holden, with has a good background-retired Army Lt. Colonel who grew up on a dairy farm and went to college locally. While this area trends red, am hoping there may be a chance since the district was redrawn, not to mention all of the Dems’ accomplishments + Dobbs. Will be sending some $$ to his campaign.

  90. 90.

    Mike in NC

    People are aware that Trumpism is fascism and that’s what it means to vote in the midterms.

  91. 91.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Barbara: I think this is something working class and middle class people can see with their own eyes. A lot of the elite media don’t see it because the economy has been strong for them for at least the last ten years.

  93. 93.

    Old School

    @rikyrah:

    If Mandela Barnes doesn’t make an ad based on THIS? He deserves to lose.

    I’m sure he’ll make ads about social security, but I hope he holds off on this quote, because I can’t find any source quoting it.  (So I’m assuming it’s a paraphrase/shorter.)

  94. 94.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Post is scheduled for shortly before 2pm Eastern, but this was not on the schedule this morning.

    All they are saying is that “Biden delivers remarks” but that has to be what this is about.  Unless he is also going to pound home the Dobbs decision and results from last night.

    It would be irresponsible not to speculate!

  95. 95.

    Jeffro

    since this is an open thread…see if you can find any mention of the main reason for the GOP’s fading hopes of winning this fall in this epic fail piece by Hugh Hewitt:

    Just follow ol’ Hughie’s instructions, Republicans, and you’ll “sweep” – sure you will!

    The case for every Republican candidate has six paragraphs and a coda.

    “Affordability” should lead off most ads and speeches. Gas prices are falling with the approach of recession and the end of summer driving but groceries soared 13 percent year-over-year in July and everyone’s got to eat.

    Got that, Republican candidates?  Gas prices are falling…because recession is approaching!  LOL

    “Anxiety” covers a host of worries, of course, but serious crime and concern for loved ones tops the list. The concern over violence crescendos with every mass shooting, but it is the fear of crime rising in some suburbs that has the power to boost Republican hopes.

    Ok, that one we knew – fear does indeed boost Republican hopes.  It’s why they stoke it, non-stop.

    Ordinary Americans’ continuing “anger” with elites — whether inside big companies, big government, big media or big universities — will once again prove to be a surprise factor in voter turnout, inevitably missed by the pollsters and prognosticators. The anger is powered by a sense of things headed in the wrong direction and a resentment at those who label supporters of Donald Trump as fascists, racists and sexists….If Republican Senate hopefuls in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado and Washington statehave a hidden superpower, this anger is it.

    GOP pundits really, really want their voters to be mad that Dems call them ‘fascists, racists, and sexists’.  Except a) GOP voters are always mad, and b) the shoe fits, so c) who cares?
    And Hugh, m’man, if those Senate hopefuls have hidden superpowers, it’s whatever is keeping their poll numbers above the fabled 27% mark.

    “Energy” is paragraph four of the GOP agenda and part of the larger debate in this country about fossil fuels. The ground may be shifting slightly toward nuclear power in the face of climate change and rising energy prices. The absurd anti-oil policies of Biden that began with cancellation of the Keystone pipeline have not dissipated even as the cost of gasoline declines.

    This one genuinely confuses me, in the sense of, “What the fuck is Hewitt proposing that his party’s candidates actually do, here?”  Admit that they’re losing the climate change ‘debate’?  Try to get people fired up about Keystone…even as gas prices continue to drop like they have all summer?
    (and I think it’s funny that he continues to try and drag nuclear power into the conversation, as if that is some sort of Democratic Party kryptonite wedge issue.  nice try, Hughie!)

    “Education” is the sleeper issue for every GOP candidate; so is trouble for school board incumbents who have not stepped forward to renounce mandatory masking or the infusion of critical race theory into primary schools. These issues will define many local elections.

    This one’s already past its sell-by date.  Everybody knows the CRT ‘issue’, such as it is, is really just cover for racists.  And I bet you that far more parents are concerned about their local schools’ teacher shortages and/or lack of library materials than they are about the CRT boogeyman.  It wins them nothing but the already-red states, and costs them the suburbs.

    Then, there is “ESG” — short for “Environmental, Social, Governance policies” — which usually means that large companies at the very least pay lip service to all manner of leftist aspirations from 100 percent “green” energy to declamations against “transphobia.” The ESG list, from where I sit, shape shifts as required by context and is losing its power in the C-suite. But it has gained a grip in corporate culture and workplaces. While big majorities of Americans favor a broad and welcoming acceptance of people of all sexual orientations and compassion toward people struggling through all sorts of identity crises, those same majorities reject the most extreme demands of the most outspoken activists.

    Note how Hugh calls it ‘ESG’ instead of “woke”, eh?  He’s so clever and classy!  He knows that slinging “woke” around sounds like the thinly-veiled racism that it is, so it’s time to give white suburbanites new lingo!
    And he’s right that most Americans favor non-discrimination, pro-environment policies, and so on.  How are GOP candidates supposed to translate this for their audiences?  How does this win them independent/swing voters?  It’s puzzling.
    Finally, the “coda”:

    The Democrats gifted Republicans with one last weapon when they voted to add $80 billion to the budget and 87,000 staff to the payroll of the IRS over a decade and bestow a $7,500 tax credit on Americans who can afford to buy and drive electric vehicles. Ford promptly raised the price on its electric-powered “Lightning” 150 pickup.

    …which again is odd, because the gist of most of the IRS coverage has been that RWNJs are threatening the agency (along with the FBI), which makes GOP candidates look even crazier.  It’s also the perfect set-up for Democratic ads and debate questions: “Does (GOP candidate X) really believe it’s ok to threaten federal employees and agents?” “How will we find rich tax cheats and make them pay their fair share if we don’t have a functional IRS?”  And so on.
    Oh, and I certainly hope GOP candidates talk about the fact that a) there is an electric Ford F-150, and b) a tax credit for those that buy one.  Pleeeeeeeease talk about that one a LOT, guys!
    Anyway, the list is long and stupid and actually is designed to do one main thing: take voters’ minds off of Dobbs.  Let’s make sure we don’t let that happen!

  96. 96.

    Jeffro

    ack…too long of a post with too many links or something…help mods!

    oh no?  Did my comment completely go poof?

  98. 98.

    Eljai

    @Kay: You are so right.  I was listening to Scott Simon and … some guy (can’t remember the name) on NPR discussing the midterms last weekend.  It involved the usual republican fluffing and how Democrats have a tough road ahead.  Ya know what neither one mentioned?:  The increase in Democratic women voter registrations and the Dobbs decision.   I mean, if you’re covering the midterms and you forget to include this, that’s kind of incompetent.

  100. 100.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

     

    No one other than voters, apparently.

    Political media got it wrong. They missed the story because they made a decision no one cared about this issue before a single vote had been cast.

     

    HALF THE POPULATION

  103. 103.

    Gretchen

    My rep is considered one of the more vulnerable House seats in the Kansas City suburbs.  Redistricting pulled some of her urban voters into another district and added more suburban voters. Most of her ads talk about working with both parties, but there’s one that leans right into the abortion issue.  Her opponent is a no-exceptions abortion banner, and the ad spells that out and calls her too extreme for Kansas.

  105. 105.

    Another Scott

    @rikyrah: Wasserman seems to be very good, and simultaneously very stuck in his bubble.  He’s very good at reading the chicken entrails and picking the winner on election night from early returns.  But he seems very much stuck in the Cook Political Report (understandable, based on where he works) mode that ancient history predicts nearly all and that recent events (January 6, Dobbs, insane GQPers, stolen ultra-secrets, redistricting not being horrible, monstrous job growth and excellent GDP growth, etc., etc.) have little or nothing to do with the upcoming elections.

    Someone made a point a while ago that the GQP does better than polls indicate when TFG is on the ballot (because the monsters crawl out from under their rocks), but less well when he isn’t (because the monsters don’t actually like anyone other than TFG).  Cherry-picking can show that that is right or wrong (the details of the comparison matter), but many, many things are in the Democrats’  favor now.  We need to push to fight for every seat.

    DougJ’s Twitter thread is excellent.  While Dobbs is important, there are a dozen or more things that should (and will, I think) fire up Democrats this fall.  Today’s student loan news being yet another one.

    Forward!!  (And let’s grab that excellent word back from Lieberman Yang while we’re at it.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  107. 107.

    catclub

    @Dangerman: Can’t we just send him reams of blank paper with cool looking cover sheets?

     

    I am pretty sure that when Trump released a big set of documents early on, he did just that.  I think it was handing over all his sub-corporations to the kiddies.

  112. 112.

    Lacuna Synecdoche

    mistermix @ Top:

    Whatever you think of SALT as a general principle …

    I think that if we’re going to give people tax deductions for charitable giving, then they should also get tax deductions for taxes paid to state and local governments.

  113. 113.

    Jackie

    @Kay: I say let republicans think Roe isn’t a big deal. The better for the *completely blindsided* shock when they don’t win the House. This, along with voters learning TFG committed espionage are two things Republican candidates can’t run on – except at their peril.

  115. 115.

    Chris Johnson

    @rikyrah: This assumes Trump isn’t simply a Russian asset who was always taking the secrets to give to Russia. Trump does not have the amount of agency this assumes he has. (other sorts of agency, yeah pretty much)

    In other words, for that to work Trump has to have not immediately rolled over for Putin and given him everything he wanted. How likely does that seem, given all we already know?

    I’m thinking the saving grace is this: Putin now has lots of very advanced nuclear secrets… and cannot use them, because his own people are authoritarian garbage and cannot execute on that kind of advanced stuff. I’d be way more worried if Trump had given the nuclear secrets to China, which I think is capable of executing on pretty much anything we can. Russia? Nah.

  116. 116.

    MazeDancer

    … the GQP does better than polls indicate when TFG is on the ballot

    @Another Scott:

    Have decided the reason there were no Molinaro yard signs this cycle, is because he wasn’t a crazy guy.

    That all the Trumpers who put up yard signs for GOP causes – like save the local police, don’t let them merge with Town force – do it for performative reasons.

    That they have been so outraged up, they can’t be bothered to support a regular, not crazy, candidate.

  119. 119.

    Lyrebird

    @germy shoemangler: Thanks for that fact check!  May I ask, are you germy with an addition to your nym or someone else?

    and thanks @wegners shoppers club member mistermix: for giving this more attention.

    No one has been mentioning that before Delgado’s grassroots win, the seat was R for almost 20 years!

    ETA: Okay probably not “no one”, but someone should stick that fact in smarmy Mr. Klein’s pipe so he can smoke it!

  121. 121.

    delphinium

    @Gretchen: Her opponent is a no-exceptions abortion banner, and the ad spells that out and calls her too extreme for Kansas.

    Good-we need to call out these ghouls at every opportunity.

  122. 122.

    JoyceH

    @MattF:

    That Trump-appointed judge who’s handling Trump’s tantrum-filing would like to know exactly why she’s being sucked into this mess.

    Trump expects judges he appointed to rule in his favor. He thinks that’s what they’re SUPPOSED to do. So when one of ‘his’ judges rules against him, he genuinely feels betrayed and believes they broke some rule.

  124. 124.

    Bill Arnold

    @rikyrah:
    I have not found a primary source for that supposed Ron Johnson quote about Social Security. Be cautious with it unless e.g. there is audio.

  127. 127.

    Roger Moore

    @Brachiator: ​
     

    I still don’t understand how an ex president gets to keep or claim documents. I thought that there was a standard set of procedures followed to transition from an outgoing president to a new president.

    They don’t. It has become traditional for each President to found a presidential library where documents from their presidency are kept, but those are not their personal property. They’re run by the National Archives, and, IIRC, they’re limited to non-classified material; classified documents are much more closely kept. Trump does not have any right to keep official documents, classified or otherwise, in his personal possession. The whole thing is flat illegal, and it’s only because of the extreme deference we give to former presidents that he hasn’t been arrested.

  129. 129.

    trollhattan

    @Lacuna Synecdoche: I don’t think it’s a coincidence Trump moved from New York to Florida after screwing over New York, California et al with his shitty tax bill.

    I know as a Californian that bill has cost us a shitton in additional federal taxes, made worse by their gaming the withholding schedules, plumping our takehome while digging a liability hole come filing time.

  130. 130.

    Another Scott

    @MazeDancer: I think January 6 spooked a lot of TFG lovers who aren’t actually traitors.  There were a couple of houses in our NoVA neighborhood that had bid TFG flags up on January 5.  They were gone on January 7.  There’s still one old guy who has a big All Lives Matter sign and flag up to counter his across-the-street neighbor’s small BLM and We Believe signs, but that’s about it on the RWNJ side that I see.  (Oh, there was one newish pickup I saw with MD plates and some anti-Biden sticker about getting a gasoline enema, but some people are just incredibly stupid.)

    I continue to believe that since TFG’s insurrection failed that his support will fall and he will not somehow be in a stronger position if he runs again.  He had the whole apparatus of the White House and the federal government under his thumb, and he failed.  He won’t succeed as an outsider now.  Normies pay attention to stuff like riots, and the Capitol being trashed, and they don’t like them.

    But we still have to fight them every single day.  We cannot take anything for granted.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  132. 132.

    Soprano2

    @Barbara: Nope, not at all. NPR does a daily story about how terrible inflation is and how high prices in the store are. I mean they literally do this every single day!!!

  134. 134.

    oldgold

    From Lawrence Tribe’s Twitter  Account:  “Here it is! Justice Thomas stumping for candidate Herschel Walker. Yup. And Clarence Thomas remains on the Court, wielding vast power over all our lives, including YOUR LIFE AND YOUR BODY. RT if this strikes you as outrageous — or worse.”

    What the Hell?

  136. 136.

    Paul in KY

    @Chris Johnson: I’m 98% sure Trump is a Russian asset or maybe even a ‘made man’ spy.  I could just see Putin coming up with some especially gaudy uniform & swearing in process for him & a bunch of lies about ermine paneled dachas he’ll enjoy when he retires to the Motherland.

    His actual retirement would be a bullet behind the ear.

  138. 138.

    Old School

    @ian:

    They are all MAGAs, the crazier ones lost.

    I suppose it’s all relative, but the candidate pushing to end the culture war lost. (In Alabama.)

  139. 139.

    Frankensteinbeck

    I think the national political news downplays and overlooks Dobbs so often because the system that protected sexual assault perpetrators and started a debate by asking Hillary why everyone hates her doesn’t give a shit about women’s issues.  They have always been treated as a minor political tactic with no effect on real people.

  141. 141.

    topclimber

    @germy shoemangler: Late here and thinking this has already been mentioned, but Dems lost the incumbent in this district (Delgado named Lt. Gov), which is almost always an advantage. So it is an even more solid win, if not the “shocker” touted on KOS.

  142. 142.

    Billcoop4

    @BC in Illinois: I would watch the hell out of a Trump opera. (Imagine a soprano battle duet between Ivanka and Melania.)

    It would sound better in the original Klingon.

     

    BC (in the Adirondacks)

  143. 143.

    Mike in NC

    @Frankensteinbeck:  Most people have probably forgotten the time when somebody in 2015 asked candidate Trump about his views on abortion.

    “Should women who have abortions be punished?”

    It was painfully obvious that Trump had never given the subject a moment’s thought, but he had to pander to the religious nuts in the Republican base, and said there had to be some unspecified form of punishment. This from the asshole who over 30 women had accused of sexual assault, and of whom Michael Cohen testified that he regularly arranged for abortions for the undocumented housekeepers that Trump raped.

    But the media can’t be bothered to remember that stuff.

  146. 146.

    catmandid

    Slightly off-topic, but does the Extreme Moderate running for the NY-21 slot have a chance in hell of beating Elise “the Future Mrs. Trump” Stefanik?

  147. 147.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Dangerman: All in one big box, delivered by helicopter with worn tackle. Call ahead and tell him that there’s a solar eclipse. Then just let nature take its course.

  149. 149.

    stinger

    @Barbara:

    Female voters over the age of 40 are especially invisible to a certain kind of male that is definitely overrepresented in the ranks of highly placed news executive.

    I’m reminded of Bill O’Reilly, Charlie Rose, Matt Lauer, Mark Halperin, and on and on. Twisted, dismissive views of women (of all ages).

  151. 151.

    Barbara

    @Gravenstone: I should probably try to follow this officially, but the more I think about it, the more it seems that Trump might have waived his claim to executive privilege.  Apparently, after going back and forth with NARA about the issue, NARA told him that it wasn’t close.  And Trump turned over scads of documents, and his attorney signed a certification that everything requested had been turned over.  The search warrant was likely obtained when it became apparent that the certification was inaccurate.

    There is a way to raise objections to a subpoena on the basis of attorney client privilege, hardship, party already has the documents,  documents are subject to confidentiality restrictions that require the consent of a third party prior to disclosure (common for medical records) or whatever other valid basis exists in law.  You cannot just turn them over and then decide to raise those issues later — much less raise them as an affirmative suit in a different court.

  152. 152.

    ian

    @Old School:

    This guy?

    Kent Osband also said the “culture wars” and transparency in education were among his main motivations in running for the City Council. He agreed with the school system’s decision to terminate its contract with the ADL

     

    the Anti-Defamation League, which proposed a highly partisan educational program under the guise of hating hate

     

    You sure?  Sounds to me like he thinks it is only culture wars when liberals do it.

  155. 155.

    Urban Suburbanite

    Laura Loomer lost her primary campaign and is refusing to concede. Perhaps she’ll do an independent or write in campaign, but I’m hoping she’ll do what she does best and chain herself to a door again.

  157. 157.

    Ken

    @Baud: “When I asked for the bribe, I was conducting an investigation into the efficacy of federal bribery statutes.”

    A few people (in congress and otherwise) have tried the “I was running my own sting operation” defense after getting caught, for crimes including hacking, embezzlement, bribery, and child molestation. I don’t think the claim has ever worked.

  158. 158.

    Ken

    @Jackie: I am more and more thinking that sometime last year, the DOJ was having trouble figuring out how to get the necessary evidence against TFG. Then someone brilliant said “Just get a warrant, and he’ll confess everything while fighting it — including some crimes we don’t know about yet.”

  162. 162.

    Brachiator

    @Barbara:

    I should probably try to follow this officially, but the more I think about it, the more it seems that Trump might have waived his claim to executive privilege.

    How can a person who is not president of the United States assert executive privilege?

  163. 163.

    Ken

    @Kristine: No, but his buyers will.

    It’s not like his buyers will have him thrown off a balcony, poisoned with nerve toxin, or dismembered with a bone saw for failing them.

    Hang on… I’ve just been handed a bulletin that his buyers might in fact do those things.

  164. 164.

    Gravenstone

    @Jeffro: “Anxiety” covers a host of worries

    Like an entire political party that decided efforts to control a raging pandemic were “Naziism” or “fascism” or “communism” or whatever -ism appeals to your personal sense of grievance. Gods know I’m “anxious” about the prospect of Republicans somehow getting control of the House and/or Senate.

    who have not stepped forward to renounce mandatory masking

    See above…

  166. 166.

    Old School

    @ian: The candidate that lost also said,  “[L]et’s extend our hard-won culture of tolerance and respect for religious differences to include political differences, too.”

    But I’m not there, so if you think he’s crazier than the incumbent, I can’t really argue with you.

  171. 171.

    Brachiator

    @Peale:

    By claiming that he won the election and that Biden is a pretender.

    I would love to see his attorney try to make that argument in a court.

  172. 172.

    Barbara

    @Brachiator: I think that this was settled when Nixon left office.  He can’t.  Which is why NARA told him his position was weak and it wasn’t a close call.  So he figures, well, I’ll just take it to a friendlier judge.  My point was that even if he wanted to make that claim, he arguably waived it by not making it in a timely manner at the time he was asked to produce the documents.

    I also don’t see how you could ever assert a claim for executive privilege against NARA, an executive department that maintains all executive records.

  175. 175.

    Ruckus

    @brantl:

    They are morons. Morons can not help being morons, it’s their nature to be morons. They’d have to do something pretty amazing to rise above moron but because they are morons, that’s impossible.

  176. 176.

    Ladyraxterinok

    @Geminid:

    Workers at my assisted living complex say they don’t see inflation going down…. Maybe at the gas pump but not at the grocery store For example milk is around $5 a gallon and they have to tell the kids to choose between a glass of milk or milk on their cereal

  177. 177.

    prostratedragon

    @Redshift:  I like to think that something like one of these has been implemented from the start,  since  it was no secret that the man’s a 5 alarm security risk.

  180. 180.

    StringOnAStick

    @Ladyraxterinok: IMO the increase in food costs is a direct result of the spike in gas prices; that food had to get there on a truck and the increase in fuel costs translated through to the cost of food and goods.  Hopefully some of that will moderate.

    There’s also the point that we had barely any inflation for years, Covid hit and as the economy recovered, all that pent up demand from the slowed economy kicked up inflation as people started coming out of the Covid defensive crouch to buy the things they would have bought while that was going on, plus the things they want/need now too.

    Probably the main issue for the workers in your assisted living center is they are getting seriously underpaid, like at most assisted living centers.  It gets tossed into the “women’s work” bin, which means low paying.

  181. 181.

    topclimber

    @Lyrebird: I think it has a shared history with the NY-20 district Gillibrand represented for two terms in the mid-aughts and then Dem Scott Murphy before he was tea-partied in 2010. It was a long time GOP bastion until Gillibrand won, thanks in part to an opponent with domestic violence issues.
    After the 2010 census, much of the 20th became the 19th, where a moderate Republican held it for four terms before Democrat Delgado took it in 2018.
    In both incarnations, it has been a battleground district for most of the past 20 years.
    Just pointing this out to say: Ryan’s victory shows the tide is blue, but we should not get carried away yet with what it means for the size of the wave accompanying it.​
    ​
    ​

  182. 182.

    RR_Mikey

    SALT has cost me thousands.  I get a real charge out of my Trump neighborhood tools complaining about how much tax money they are on the hook for in mid April.  When I remind them that they can thank their orange hero for that, the dumb just floods the room.

  183. 183.

    Nettoyeur

    @Jackie: The Trump classified docs court saga kinda reminds me of a lawyer’s story I read somewhere (maybe even here) about a client accused of theft who reacted to the showing of the security cam video in court  by saying: “hey, that’s me.” I think what happened next must have been a face palm from the client’s lawyer, followed by a sudden change of plea to get a deal.

  184. 184.

    StringOnAStick

    @Ladyraxterinok: I also wonder too if the dairy industry is being impacted by the 4 years of tRump-induced crackdown on illegal immigration.  The dairy industry is a well known user of illegal immigration as are meat packers and food services.  It could be a lot of the increase in salaries out there because there is a shortage of workers is because a lot of the underground worker supply (undocumented workers) took a huge hit in his administration.  CBP and ICE are still staffed with feral officers who got a taste of what they could do under tRump and are likely still doing as much of it as they can.

  185. 185.

    Nettoyeur

    @StringOnAStick: Also, too, Russia invaded Ukraine, screwing up two supply chains for metals and grain, to say nothing of what happened to petroleum markets… Then there’s the Trump immigration restrictions, which tightened supply for workers, including STEM professionals…sort of our very own employment Brexit.

  186. 186.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Kropacetic: not something a man has to worry about from a comfy executive suite, you mean. And of course they’re mostly men.

  190. 190.

    Bill Arnold

    @topclimber:

    Ryan’s victory shows the tide is blue, but we should not get carried away yet with what it means for the size of the wave accompanying it.​

    The most interesting aspect, IMO, is that polling was drastically underestimating Democratic strength in that race. By >10 percentage points in a public poll, and 5 points in a private/internal poll (don’t know how large the later was), according to reports.
    That is a hint that electoral predictive models, particularly the (dumb) ones with only a few parameters that can work OK in normal times, are (very probably) broken and should not be allowed to discourage Democratic activists.

  191. 191.

    Bill Arnold

    @VOR:

    It might not strike your fancy, that’s fine. But this is how I think, and you don’t get to be my thought police person.”

    He likened basic public health measures vs a deadly infectious respiratory virus to the Nazis. He appears to be asserting that Americans have the right to spread deadly infectious diseases to other people; for an American constitutional (?) right to randomly kill people; a right to negligent homicide. In some cases, e.g. when one knows one is infected, deliberate homicide.
    This is not OK. His GOP team felt very strongly about e.g. spitting on other people when HIV panic was in full fetid bloom. And the risk from COVID was several orders of magnitude higher, e.g. the major cause of police deaths in 2020/2021 IIRC.

  192. 192.

    prostratedragon

    @zhena gogolia:
    True, I have it on the brain, but I find myself thinking of the main trio in Akhnaten: Melania the mezzo alright, and Ivanka a soprano. With apologies to countertenors everywhere, …

  195. 195.

    prostratedragon

    @The Lodger:  No, TFG himself, though now that you mention it, that bass-baritone court advisor part might need rethinking. Maybe he could be a wraith-like clone of TfG.

  197. 197.

    cain

    @MazeDancer: Remote workers are going to be a danger to the GOP since thanks to all the high prices of living in the city  – rural living will be attractive thanks to cheaper housing, larger land packages, and so on. It’ll bring on their own form of gentrification.

  198. 198.

    cain

    @Steve in the ATL: I  think I have you pied.. wait wait.. it’s the last friday of the month so NO, I do not have you pied on the last fridays. I think it’s the last thursday you are pied.

    Baud is pied on the first saturday on even numbered months.

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