Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

We still have time to mess this up!

Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

No one could have predicted…

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Come on, man.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Let’s Post “Called” Races & Race Updates In This Thread

Let’s Post “Called” Races & Race Updates In This Thread

by | 443 Comments

This post is in: 

Here’s a thread where we can post races that have been called for one candidate or the other.  Please don’t assume that we all know which state a certain candidate is in or even what particular office was won or lot.

I can’t be the only person that can’t track everyone in my head, right?  :-)

That will leave other threads safe for folks who don’t want to know until everything is over.

BLUE WINS TONIGHT

Democratic Governors 

Colorado – Jared Polis
Connecticutt – Richard Blumenthal
Illinois – J.B. Pritzker
Maine – Janet Mills
Maryland – Wes Moore
Massachusetts – Maura Healey
Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer
New Mexico – Michelle Lujan Grisham
Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro

Democratic Senators 

California – Alex Padilla
Colorado – Michael Bennet
Maryland – Chris Van Hollen
New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan
Oregon – Ron Wyden
Washington – Patty Murray

Democratic House

Florida – Max Frost
Illinois – Lauren Underwood (keep)
Kansas – Sharice Davids (keep)
Maine – Chellie Pingree (keep)
New Mexico – Teresa Fernández
North Carolina – Wiley Nickel (pickup)
Ohio – Emilia Sykes (keep)
Ohio – Greg Landsman (pickup)
Ohio – Marcy Kaptur (keep)
Pennsylvania – Summer Lee
Washington – Adam Smith (keep)
Washington – Pramila Jayapal (keep)
Washington – Susan DelBene (keep)

Reader Interactions

443Comments

  1. 1.

    Jerzy Russian

    The polls are still open here in California. All of my local reps, Congress critters, etc. are on Team D, so no suspense there.  Given the mail in nature of the election, it could be awhile before any of the races are officially called.

  2. 2.

    stacib

    As I dip in and out of MSNBC coverage, I haven’t heard a thing that makes me feel comforted.  OTOH, Pritzker was re-elected for IL governor, so there’s that.

  3. 3.

    jonas

    The Senate hangs on GA and NV, so that’s what I’m watching. Both those are going to be absolute nail-biters. I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes a couple of days to get the results. Glad to be wrong! *Tosses back a good belt of bourbon

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    @stacib: Whew, I live in Illinois, and knowing that Pritzker won makes me feel better.  I got a little wobbly with nerves about him when Barack came to Illinois and was campaigning for Pritzker.

  9. 9.

    dnfree

    @stacib: ​
      Republicans can win in Illinois, BUT they have to be moderates. The Republican party has forgotten that and keeps nominating extremists.

  10. 10.

    TaMara

    Colorado:

    Dem: Gov Polis

    Dem: Sen Bennet

    Now, sit down for this…for now, and I say, for now, because El Paso Pueblo hasn’t turned in any results yet (and WTF on that) but Boebert is losing. By a pretty nice margin. Just put a pin in that.

    The remainder are staying as they were.

    We have two house seats in CO we could flip to DEMS. So I’ll check back as I know more.

  11. 11.

    Brent

    @stacib:

    I wouldn’t use the word comforted but I would definitely say the vibe right now is that whatever happens,  the final results will not be a red wave.  Of course, its still early but a few dems have come out ahead (in some cases very far ahead) in races where they were supposed to be in real trouble. The GOP is still perhaps in decent position to gain the house but it probably won’t be by like 20 seats.

    As I say,  thats not exactly comforting but it absolutely could be a lot worse and in most mid term elections with a Dem President,  it absolutely is.

  12. 12.

    jonas

    Polls are closed in NY. The early/mail ballots are counted first, so D’s are up by healthy margins at the moment in a lot of races, incl. governor. Expect those totals to tighten as the evening goes on, but so far so good. The only one I would call so far is Schumer for Senate, whose Republican opponent, as far as I could tell, barely even mounted a campaign.

  13. 13.

    eclare

    @jonas:   Having a cocktail here too.  Yeah, those counts could go on a while.  Warnock may go to a runoff, which IIRC would be in December.

  14. 14.

    Ohio Mom

    I saw photos taken earlier from today of Vance who looks happy and Tom Tim Ryan who looks, well, defeated, so I’m guessing Ohio isn’t supplying a Democrat to the Senate after all. Half expected that but my other half was stubbornly not.

    ETA: it will be interesting but not comforting to see how much vote splitting there was by people who voted for Ryan and the incumbent Republican governor. I know some of that was expected.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    🚨PROJECTION

    Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeats Tudor Dixon in her re-election bid for Governor of Michigan

    — umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈 (@umichvoter) November 9, 2022

    Good, good.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Urban Suburbanite

    I really hope Patty Murray wins tonight. Not because I’m a huge fan of her continuing to be in the Senate forever, but Tiffany Smiley sucks so very much. She needs to slink off back to her nonprofit grifting.

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    Update on what we raised:

    Including candidates, direct donations to boots on the ground organizations, and external matches we asked organizations to find, we raised $845,000 this cycle.

    I think we should feel pretty good about our commitment to the fight for our rights, for good government, and for democracy.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    Tammy Duckworth will apparently hold the Illinois Senate seat.

    ETA: No surprise but it’s a seat

  30. 30.

    Barbara

    I’m over at DKos, which pulled me back from the ledge.

    Magaziner projected to win over Fung in RI. Every poll had Fung in the lead.

    Feeling a bit of relief.

  31. 31.

    Ohio Mom

    @eclare: I just figure the candidates are privy to info we laypeople aren’t and they both looked like they knew.

    It’s not like Vance is going to be any worse than the outgoing slimeball Portman was though. Vance won’t be able to put on as much as “I’m reasonable!” act  is all.

  35. 35.

    jonas

    @Jerzy Russian: ​
      Ugh. That’s right. Rerun of 2020 is definitely a possibility. How Herschel Walker is making this even remotely competitive is beyond me, but usually whenever I make an observation like this, someone is always “Have you ever *been* to Georgia?”

    P.S. I have, but only Atlanta, which is probably why I’m surprised at all.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    Is this all we know so far?

    BLUE WINS TONIGHT

    Democratic Governors 

    Colorado – Polis
    Illinois – Pritzker
    Maryland – Moore
    Michigan – Whitmer

    Democratic Senators 

    Colorado – Benet

  43. 43.

    Jerzy Russian

    @jonas:   Yes, I was in Atlanta for a few days in June many years ago, and in addition I may have had a layover or two at the airport.  I get the feeling that does not count as actually being in Georgia.

  46. 46.

    JWR

    7:20 here on the Left Coast, and just switching between CBS and NBC, the erection people are hedging their bets about a coming “Red Wave.” In fact, they’re saying that same-day voters on the East coast are breaking Dem, and so we might see, at best, a little red sploosh. Fingers crossed!

  48. 48.

    Bill Arnold

    @jonas:

    The only one I would call so far is Schumer for Senate, whose Republican opponent, as far as I could tell, barely even mounted a campaign.

    I voted straight D (NY state), but looked down the column (D on top) for most races, and literally do not recall who ran against Schumer.

  49. 49.

    Anoniminous

    Fetterman is running 3 points above Biden’s numbers in 2020, Oz is 4 down from Trump numbers.

  53. 53.

    Lyrebird

    @Ohio Mom: Ryan is a statesman and a true public servant.  I don’t always agree with him, but yikes, could a majority of voters go for a Thiel funded person who is just blob of lies and pandering?

    Best wishes to Ohio Fam either way.

  56. 56.

    Anoniminous

    @JWR:

    Red wave is not happening.  What I’m seeing from the MSNBC Kornacki Cam is Dems are mostly running ahead of Biden’s numbers, in some cases by as much as 10%, and GOP running mostly below Trump’s numbers.

  57. 57.

    jonas

    @eclare: ​
      Same with a lot of other southern/southwest cities. The urban areas are often some of the coolest cities in the US, but then you get a few miles out of town and… holy shit.

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    So this is correct and complete?

    Democratic Governors 

    Colorado – Polis
    Illinois – Pritzker
    Maryland – Moore
    Massachusetts – Maura Healey
    Michigan – Whitmer
    Pennsylvania – Shapiro

    Democratic Senators 

    Colorado – Benet

    Democratic House

    Illinois – Lauren Underwood

  64. 64.

    Tony G

    @dnfree: The same thing is happening in New Jersey.  I do not like my representative (Josh Gottheimer — a “moderately” right-wing Democrat) but I keep voting for him because the New Jersey GOP keeps nominating Trumpian loons to run against him.  The Republican Party — even in a state like New Jersey — seems to be a little bit unhinged and unaware of the real world.

  69. 69.

    Suzanne

    @Ohio Mom: I think you’re right, I think they get the results sooner.

    My cousin is a State Rep in Connecticut (111th district, I think?), and she won re-election, but her local media still says 0% in.

  71. 71.

    TaMara

    Also – CO had a new house seat and right now the Dem Caraveo is leading, with most of the republican vote counted, and Dem vote still outstanding. Thanks WaterGirl and BJ for helping raise money for her!

  73. 73.

    Wag

    @TaMara:

     

    Relax.  El Paso county isn’t in Boebert’s district.  EP is in the 5th CD, which is going to go GQP as always.

    I think Frisch has a good shot at taking out Boebert.

  75. 75.

    JWR

    Great, there’s a refinery fire down in El Segundo. Wonder how much Chevron’s gonna charge us for this one?

  79. 79.

    TaMara

    @Wag: Oh, sorry, Pueblo hasn’t reported yet (why I said El Paso…tired!). But yeah, I’m thinking she’s toast. But those MAGATS are hard to get rid of, LOL

  83. 83.

    jonas

    In NY-21, Elise Stefanik has pulled slightly ahead (52-48) of D challenger Matt Castelli, who has been giving her a surprising run for the money, given that she was redistricted into a *super*-safe North Country red district. I think she’ll still win at this point, but this was no blow-out for one of the craziest, Trumpiest reps in NY, in one of the most rural, Trumpiest districts in the state. This should have been a 70-30 run of the board for Stefanik and it will probably end up being more like 55-45.

  87. 87.

    jonas

    @JWR: LATimes tomorrow: “…and what’s worse, the accident comes right as the refinery was preparing to switch over to the winter gasoline formulation, which will drive prices even higher.”

    Every fucking six months. Right on schedule.

  91. 91.

    Tony G

    Ha.  It looks like that Jewish fellow — Josh Shapiro — has handed Doug Mastriano’s sorry ass to him.  I thought that God had already decided that Mastriano would win?  God changed his mind?  Mastriano should start fasting and praying — no more pasta Doug — until he can figure out what happened here.

  92. 92.

    RaflW

    @JacobRubashkin 6m

    Decision Desk HQ projects that MAGGIE HASSAN will win re-election in the New Hampshire Senate race. Big hold for Democrats.

  93. 93.

    Ohio Mom

    @Lyrebird: There were lots of enticements for Ohio Republicans to vote: keeping the governor and the other top offices in the incumbents’ hands; voting against bail reform and local governments allowing non-citizens to vote; punishing the Ohio Supreme Court for putting up a fight against the Republication state legislature’s gerrymandering.

    So as long as you’re there, Eh, throw Vance a vote.

    And they were told to be mad at Biden and a vote for Vance is a good way to get back at him.

    And we are a state that is getting older — losing young people — and stupider.

  96. 96.

    mayim

    Looks like Mills as governor and Golden for the second district may well hold on here in Maine. That would be nice!

    Congressional seats in Maine are ranked choice voting so that is less certain at this point than Mills beating back LePage.

  97. 97.

    Suzanne

    Summer Lee is my new Congresswoman, and the first Black woman elected from PA.

    GET FUCKED, Mike Doyle NO NOT THAT MIKE DOYLE, THE OTHER MIKE DOYLE.

  104. 104.

    Lyrebird

    @Ohio Mom: Thanks for the explanations.

    Must be so frustrating.  And it’s honestly still scary to me that anyone would even want to go to a Trump rally anymore, let alone that it would help a candidate.

  109. 109.

    Matt McIrvin

    In Massachusetts, all four ballot questions are currently trending the way I voted (yes-yes-no-yes), which is an odd feeling. I was iffy on 2 and 3, but 2 is the most popular of the lot. The other three are marginal enough that I guess they could still flip.

  112. 112.

    Suzanne

    @WaterGirl: The outgoing rep in this district is a longtime Dem named Mike Doyle. He’s retiring, so the GOP legit figured the only way to win was to run a guy named….Mike Doyle. Similar in looks, too. So Mike Doyle #1 is okay. But fuck the other one, and fuck the GOP for being pathetically shady.

  113. 113.

    Ohio Mom

    @Suzanne: I have heard there are new treatments for herpes. You can’t be cured but you can keep it at bay longer. And they are working on a vaccine.

    We still don’t have anything like that for MAGAs. You make life better for them, they are resentful. You make things worse, they are resentful. No known treatments!

    P.S. Congrats to your cousin.

  114. 114.

    Captain C

    @Kristine: The NY Post is going to be so sad.  Also whoever rented the speakermobile driving around my work neighborhood (roughly where Kensington, Boro Park, and Midwood, Brooklyn all meet) blasting out Yiddish imprecations to vote for Zeldin and whatever Republican evil clown was running for AG.

  116. 116.

    RaflW

    Cook “Lean Dem” race holds in Ohio.
    @DecisionDeskHQ projects Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) wins re-election to the U.S. House in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District.

  117. 117.

    Dopey-o

    Watching PBS with the sound muted. Where are all those women who were so upset over Roe? I don’t see evidence of their votes.

    Here’s hoping their votes are waiting to be counted.

  118. 118.

    eclare

    @Suzanne:   Wait…what?  I was confused by your earlier post.  That is shady as hell.  And bizarre.  Did Republicans just go through the phone book?  Did this Mike Doyle have any political experience?

  120. 120.

    jonas

    Kathy Hochul still has a very healthy 60-40 lead on Zeldin, which has surprised me. I thought this was going to be a lot closer. She’s even holding on to a decent lead here in CNY, which is way more conservative than downstate. Like I said above, this will definitely tighten as today’s in-person ballots are tallied over the next couple of hours, but in all honesty, I had expected it to be a lot more of a nail-biter at this point. If Hochul and Zeldin were tied right now, for instance, it would be all over.

  121. 121.

    Matt McIrvin

    Anyway, my feeling so far is that while Democrats are not romping across the map, this is not the Republican blowout the papers were drooling over either. Might be a decent night given the crappy fundamentals. Spanberger winning reelection in my sister’s district in VA is a real indicator to me–that district is on a knife edge and she would have been toast in any real red wave.

  122. 122.

    O. Felix Culpa

    Just got home a little while ago from working the polls at UNM campus. Gen Z turned out in droves, overwhelming the system. Never seen anything like it. It will be interesting to see what their turnout across the country was. They could be difference-makers.

  125. 125.

    phdesmond

    the Guardian:

    Residents of Kentucky have been voting on a referendum to state there is no right to abortion in the state’s constitution. Abortion advocates worried about the vote, because although voters in deep red Kansas voted no when given the same option earlier this year, Kentuckians skew slightly more conservative on abortion.
    But the early signs are hopeful for pro-choice advocates. With 50% of the vote in, the no campaign has a 12% lead, which it has maintained steadily over the last few hours.

  127. 127.

    jonas

    @Tony G: ​
    Clearly his supporters weren’t fasting hard enough. Darla Jenkins of Allentown snuck an Oreo the other day and God saw it. That’s all it took.

    *sad trombone noise

  130. 130.

    eclare

    @WaterGirl:   Yep.  I have no words.  Should have been fired years ago.  I will have a sip of a cocktail so that I don’t spontaneously combust in anger.

  133. 133.

    Martin

    Reminder, CA holds ~50 Dem House seats, and we’ll have our votes counted in a few weeks. Don’t panic. Remember: good, fast, cheap, pick any two. CA picked good and cheap.

  134. 134.

    geg6

    Summer Lee is PA’s first Black female rep!  Worried a bit about this race because the asshole GOP ran a guy named Mike Doyle, which is the name of the retiring Dem rep.

    I think Sharice David and Maggie Hassan have both also won.

  135. 135.

    WaterGirl

    So is this now correct and complete?

    BLUE WINS TONIGHT

    Democratic Governors 

    Colorado – Jared Polis
    Illinois – J.B. Pritzker
    Maryland – Wes Moore
    Massachusetts – Maura Healey
    Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer
    New Mexico – Michelle Lujan Grisham
    Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro

    Democratic Senators 

    Colorado – Michael Bennet

    Democratic House

    Illinois – Lauren Underwood
    Kansas – Sharice Davids
    New Mexico – Teresa Fernández
    Ohio – Marcy Kaptur
    Pennsylvania – Summer Lee

  136. 136.

    Kay

    Marcy Kaptur won despite Republicans redrawing her district and taking it from Biden +9 to Trump +2,  – which also means I (now) have a Democratic rep in the House :)

  138. 138.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Anoniminous: That’s good, and not surprising. Redistricting cut down the Dem majority a bit in CD3, but still with a D advantage. The tougher race is CD2, where Vasquez (D) has a slim lead over the vile Herrell. Stansbury (D) has been called for CD1.

  148. 148.

    JWR

    @Dagaetch:

    Did he sound massively disappointed when he said it?

    Actually, yeah, a bit. ;) Matter of fact, all these election “experts” seem a bit underwhelmed by the possibility.

  150. 150.

    guachi

    Looks like I was incredibly wrong on how many seats Rs would win.

    Fetterman is looking good in PA. I see no indication of any other Senate seats flipping D. So that leaves holding either GA or NV for the Senate.

    Watching McCarthy try to lead the House with a tiny majority is going to be some kind of show.

  151. 151.

    sanjeevs

    @WaterGirl:

    Including candidates, direct donations to boots on the ground organizations, and external matches we asked organizations to find, we raised $845,000 this cycle.

    Thanks for organizing this.

    How does the amount raised here compare with previous electoins?

  152. 152.

    Matt McIrvin

    Oh, and the press called MA governor for Maura Healey practically the instant the polls closed, no surprise there. This is the first time Massachusetts has ever elected a woman as governor, and it happened because the MA Republicans decided to go with a full MAGA freak this time.

  155. 155.

    tobie

    Wasserman was predicting an R blowout. I hope people question his credibility moving forward. I sure will.

  157. 157.

    Quinerly

    WI, GA, NC Senate races too close to call.

    I sure wish DNC had put more time and $ into NC.

    GA called for Kemp.

  160. 160.

    eclare

    @Quinerly:   I never thought Abrams had a chance.  The economic juggernaut of Atlanta powers GA, and it is doing fine.  So voters had no economic reason to change.

  162. 162.

    Ohio Mom

    @Kay: Congrats to you! There seems to be a chance I may finally get to have a Dem Rep too, though too soon to be sure.

    I will be curious to learn if any significant numbers split their votes between DeWine and Ryan.

  165. 165.

    guachi

    @tobie: He can only make predictions on the data he’s given.

    When he has good data, like actually vote totals, he’s a master.

  170. 170.

    JWR

    @Quinerly:

    Vance projected to win.

    Damn! I really thought that one was in the D bank. But at least both Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs down in AZ look like locks for their spots.

  174. 174.

    Martin

    I’m not seeing any canaries. The believed safe blue seat that loses which foretells a broader set of blue losses. Abbot, Grassley – they were expected. The close races are still close. Shapiro in PA called pretty early.

    For a first midterm, Dems should be getting shellacked, and we’re not. We’re holding a lot of close seats.

    In other news, I just looked at the CA gov result page at the SOS site, and was confused because I saw a name I didn’t recognize. It was the GOP nominee for governor. I swear to god I had no idea what their name was.

  176. 176.

    jonas

    NY-22 is also an important race to watch. This was a new district drawn to be a pretty safe blue seat last year after NY lost a Congressional seat, but polls have been showing the R candidate Brandon Williams making a surprisingly strong showing against the D Francis Conole. Both are political newcomers and the CCCs and outside PACs dumped an obscene amount of money into the race on both sides. Conole is maintaining a decent lead at this point, about 55-45, but this is going to be a nail-biter, I think. In 2020 when the district was a lot redder, it was the tightest House race in the country, marred by a bunch of tabulating irregularities that took months to sort out before Republican Claudia Tenney squeaked out a win by something like 100 votes. She moved to a new district in Western NY (basically everything sans Buffalo and Rochester) now where she has handily beat her Democratic challenger.

  183. 183.

    eclare

    @Quinerly:   If they want a future in politics, they need to do what Pete did and change states.  He now lives in MI, after the White House he has a path.

  184. 184.

    phdesmond

    the Guardian:

    Maryland voters green-lighted a constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana for adults over 21.
    The vote puts Maryland among the 19 states, and District of Columbia, that have legalized adult-use cannabis, according to The Baltimore Sun.

  185. 185.

    Quinerly

    @JWR:

    DNC should have put more money in Ohio (and, NC for that matter). Ryan vs Vance doesn’t even appear to be close now, though.

  186. 186.

    frosty

    @WaterGirl: ​
     $845,000 is real money! But what I find more astounding is $7,500 in one day for Four Directions. When they didn’t even ask and we found out through Valued Commenter Madeleine!

  188. 188.

    Soprano2

    Missouri was Missouri, so do-nothing Republican AG Eric Schmitt won the Senate race. Strangely enough Republicans have been in charge of this state for several years yet they aren’t being thrown out of office because of inflation. Funny how that works.

  192. 192.

    Bupalos

    @WaterGirl: I don’t especially agree with the conventional wisdom that he ran a great campaign. I mean, he did a good job executing the campaign they decided to  run, but he specifically stayed away from talking about admin accomplishments that are huge for Ohio. That stuff helped Dewine run up big numbers. It was a bad equation in trading that off for a chance to flatter more trumpies, and it didn’t work.

    Also I don’t know what the total spending numbers were, but I saw significantly more Vance media.

  195. 195.

    Ohio Mom

    @phdesmond: After I learned the big pothead in my extended family is a gun nut Republican, I grew a lot less impressed with votes to legalize the stuff. Sure, it should be legal but the votes for legalization have no bigger meaning or implication.

  197. 197.

    Quinerly

    Looks like Dems might pick up a district in both NM and in NC. Holding House is in realm of possibility.

  200. 200.

    WaterGirl

    So is this correct and complete:

    BLUE WINS TONIGHT

    Democratic Governors 

    Colorado – Jared Polis
    Illinois – J.B. Pritzker
    Maryland – Wes Moore
    Massachusetts – Maura Healey
    Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer
    New Mexico – Michelle Lujan Grisham
    Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro

    Democratic Senators 

    Colorado – Michael Bennet
    Maryland – Chris Van Hollen
    New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan

    Democratic House

    Illinois – Lauren Underwood
    Kansas – Sharice Davids
    New Mexico – Teresa Fernández
    Ohio _ Emilia Sykes
    Ohio – Marcy Kaptur
    Pennsylvania – Summer Lee

  208. 208.

    geg6

    Just an FYI, along with Shapiro, PA has gotten its first Black Lt. Governor, Austin Davis.  He’s from McKeesport, a economically hard hit community east of Pittsburgh.  A tough place to grow up.  So happy for him!

  209. 209.

    TheTruffle

    @jonas: This is hilarious given all the polls that showed them neck and neck.

    I am so relieved. I did not want that weasel Zeldin in Albany.

  212. 212.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Murray is ahead in first WA results released.

    Kotek for OR governor is barely ahead in their first drop.

  216. 216.

    jonas

    @Immanentize: ​
      Yeah, I’d be shocked if Williams pulls off a major upset at this point, but it will be a lot closer than it is now. Lot of votes still coming in from Oneida County, which is pretty rural/Republican. So we’ll see.

  217. 217.

    Soprano2

    The recreational pot measure in MO is ahead with about 66% of the vote counted. It’s 52-47 so far. This measure also allows purging of the record of people who have simple possession convictions.

  220. 220.

    Jackie

    I haven’t read all the posts yet, but from what I’m seeing, I’m cautiously optimistic for Democrats. It’s still early, but as of yet, definitely NOT a red tsunami or red wave. That’s as far as I’m gonna project at this moment. 😊

  222. 222.

    Kelly

    Oregon Senator Wyden defeated QANON weirdo Perkins. Perkins got about 40% same as 2020 against Merkley

  224. 224.

    jonas

    Ok, so it looks like Stefanik’s victory in NY-21 is going to be more like 60/40 over Castelli. A bit better than I predicted, but still not as much as it should have been if you knew how batshit red that area of NY is.

  225. 225.

    Princess

    Johnson in WI will probably still win but he’s doing way worse in Waukesha than he would hope and has done before. That tells me at least some suburban white women are breaking Dem this time.

  226. 226.

    Bupalos

    @Cameron: I find Florida very surprising. These Florida numbers are an absolute horror-show. Overall we look slightly better than expected nationally, but Florida is puzzlingly terrible.

  228. 228.

    RaflW

    @Soprano2: This just gets an issue the GOP doesn’t really want to have to talk about off their plates. And talk about stoned gun nuts. Yikes.

  229. 229.

    tobie

    Very sad about Beasley. I’ve been phonebanking in NC since June and was hoping against hope she’d pull it out. Trying to cajole Gen Z in NC to go vote was the most frustrating thing. Most couldnt be bothered. NC ended up being one of the few states where the youth vote declined. Damn.

  235. 235.

    BeautifulPlumage

    In W–3, where the current R lost in the primaries, the D is decently ahead (early results)

  237. 237.

    Ohio Mom

    @Bupalos: Being no political strategist, I was willing to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt with his approach to put distance between himself and Biden.

    Whatever works to get a win, though in the long run, I think it hurts all Dems to distance themselves from the rest of the party (I saw the Dem who might win my newly redrawn Congressional district do the same thing at a debate and it irked me no end).

    But it certainly didn’t win over the MAGAs I periodically look in on at my local paper’s comment threads, they saw right through Ryan. And we see now it didn’t help him win.

  239. 239.

    phdesmond

    the Guardian:

     

    Voters in Vermont have voted to protect abortion rights in the states’ constitution, shoring up already-existing rights in the state.

  242. 242.

    piratedan

    in AZ, the early mail in vote came in as significantly Dem, putting Hobbs and Kelly ahead.  Still waiting on same day voting and with the Pima County still being outstanding (which trends blue)… so hopeful.  The house races and state lege races should be interesting.

    The GOP ran on fear, like they always do, immigrants, crime, crime and drugs caused by illegal immigrants….

  243. 243.

    gwangung

    @cain: There’s that. There’s also the fact that Kemp is relatively competent as governor, has presided over a great economy and withstood some of Trump’s more outrageous election demands. Those are only plusses for an incumbent.

  245. 245.

    RaflW

    @RaflW: Another Cook “Dem tossup” holds. Chris Pappas in NH.

    GOP is not having the night they wanted, and, well, Amy Walter may want to do some tweaking of her outlooks next cycle.

  254. 254.

    Jerzy Russian

    The FYNYT has Walker and Warnock at 49% each, with 86% of the votes in (as noted earlier, that would be 49 actual votes for Walker in a sane world).  I am not going to go digging to see what areas still have to report, etc., but it looks like a run-off will be necessary.

  257. 257.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Ohio Mom: I saw a similar phenomenon in 2020 in the NM CD2 race. Dem incumbent ran as Republican Lite in a red-leaning district: I like guns! I like fracking! Only problem with that is why vote Lite when you can go full bore MAGA. So they did. Dems in tough districts shouldn’t try to be, say, AOC, but I think they still need to stake themselves as Democrats. Shouldn’t run away from the brand.

  260. 260.

    piratedan

    @Ohio Mom: I adore them, they are well spoken, well reasoned, the question has to be why don’t enough of the residents in those states listen?

  261. 261.

    LeftCoastYankee

    @WaterGirl:

    Tiffany Smiley.  She was awful, but to her credit, she is maybe the only NW Republican to appear in her own ads, and not rely on the dark money puke funnel to hit her opponents.

    On the other hand she created here own BS/Puke Funnell…..

  262. 262.

    jonas

    @TheTruffle: This is hilarious given all the polls that showed them neck and neck.

    The NY Post was practically running guides on which brand of champagne to celebrate with when Zeldin sent Hochul packing. As I’ve observed here earlier, Hochul is *not* a great campaigner or retail politician, so if she wins as predicted this will really be about people wanting a bulwark against Trumpy/antichoice nuttiness even if they’re not totally in love with the Dem candidate.

  264. 264.

    Ohio Mom

    @Bupalos: Ohio Dad says in Florida, it’s all the old Jews dying. This is based on the fact than almost all of the old Jews we knew who moved to Florida have died and no one else we know is moving there to take their places.

    How’s that for a hard data based opinion?

  265. 265.

    Soprano2

    @eclare: So pissed I can’t watch because stupid DirecTv and stupid Mission Communications are in a spat so the local CBS station isn’t on my DirecTv. Assholes! It’s been going on over 3 weeks!

  266. 266.

    Anoniminous

    @piratedan: ​

    @Ohio Mom: I adore them, they are well spoken, well reasoned, the question has to be why don’t enough of the residents in those states listen?

    Frankly? Racism. White suburban women don’t want Teh Blackies moving into their neighborhood and doing Negro things and driving down their property values. See: Compton California, History of​
     

    +1

  268. 268.

    frosty

    @phdesmond: Maryland voters green-lighted a constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana for adults over 21.

    So now in Fetterman’s words, the Candyland of Maryland joins the Candyland of New Jersey and even more Pennsylvanians can cross the state line and spend their money elsewhere. Legal weed for PA!

  269. 269.

    Ocotillo

    One bright spot in Texas, USHD 34 had a GOP incumbent who won a special election earlier this year, not called yet but with over 96% of the vote in, Dem is up 52 to 44.

  270. 270.

    artem1s

    @Bupalos:

    I don’t especially agree with the conventional wisdom that he ran a great campaign

    He ignored the base of Black female voters in NE OH. Stupid move. All so he could appease his base of white male union bosses. He really didn’t have a chance because he was never willing to go door to door in Akron and Cleveland with Shontel Brown and the up and coming women candidates in Ohio. Women in Ohio remember how he dissed Nancy Smash after the Dems took back the House. I never really trusted him to make good decisions after that fiasco.

    I’m glad to see Emilia Sykes is winning though. I was afraid he was going to drag her down.

  273. 273.

    Princess

    I see Emilia Sykes in Ohio won in a district that was deemed “Likely R.” Her name is familiar — did we support her?

  276. 276.

    Wag

    Good to see that Scott Jensen, the anti-vax election denying Q-anon spouting MAGA head physician is going down to defeat in Minnesota.

  281. 281.

    senyordave

    Fetterman will definitely win, I looked at the county results and he has at least 250,000 to add to his lead  in Philly and the suburbs.  Oz can offset only a portion of that.  Fetterman is up by about 75k, I’ll bet he wins by at least 200k.

  282. 282.

    eclare

    @Ohio Mom:   You are right, I thought it was a good approach at the time.  But has Republican Lite ever beaten Republican?  Sherrod is pretty unabashedly progressive, and he wins.

    I still hate it.  Tim seems like a good guy, and he lost to a gutless Thiel advocate who thinks women should stay in violent marriages.  I will never get over that.

  284. 284.

    prostratedragon

    @Martin:  I couldn’t tell you who that is who ran against Pritzker in Illinois,  even though  I did see ads for him.
    A bit disappointed about Ohio, but otherwise things not bad so far. GA and TX were expected disappointments by me, unfortunately.​
     
    [Spelling correction]

  289. 289.

    Aussie Sheila

    So no ‘red wave’. Well done Dems!

    Looks like young people and women made the difference. So much for the ‘women have forgotten about Roe’ bs from the savvy pundits. God they are so patronising.

    At the risk of causing a riot here, I hope trump announces this week.

    The republicans know he is a drag on their traditional suburban vote, and no-one will be game to oppose him in the primaries. He is an electoral dead weight on the republicans at this stage, and even the msm will be emboldened to go after him this time round.

    Go long on pop corn futures.

  291. 291.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bupalos:

    Florida is puzzlingly terrible.

    You’re not alone. As a NY-er, Florida voting has seemed suspicious for at least a decade. (I have not lived there.)
    If I was dictator with authority over Florida, I would order harsh forensic audits of the voting for state level races in some randomly selected Deep Red FL counties. (In this scenario, there would then be a few warehouse fires/sprinkler drenchings, or floods. At least one would be botched.)

  293. 293.

    Kent

    @BeautifulPlumage:In W–3, where the current R lost in the primaries, the D is decently ahead (early results)

    Yes, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is up 53% to 47% with 54% of the vote in.  She is running +18 here in Clark County which was exactly 50/50 for Clinton and Trump in 2016 and broke about +4 for Biden in 2020.

    Yet the FNYT still has Kemp shown as the likely winner.  I don’t understand their math but am cautiously optimistic.  The majority of the outstanding votes seem to be Clark County votes, but who the hell knows, maybe they are from the deep red parts of the county:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-washington-us-house-district-3.html

    Joe Kent is a vile election denier and a MTG in waiting so he needs to be beat.

  295. 295.

    Kent

    @Bill Arnold: My only conclusion is that Florida has become a giant vortex that sucks in way too many old white people.  I mean, who the hell else moves to Florida unless they are moving to Miami?

    But what the hell do I know.

  303. 303.

    Princess

    @WaterGirl: Excellent. And I can add another from that list : Greg Landsman in OH 1. And that’s a flip R->D. Looks like your strategy of avoiding the big ticket senate races in favour of down ballot is paying off.

  305. 305.

    dm

    Somebody mentioned this race earlier, but with 71% of the vote counted, Democrat Adam Frisch leads Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert, 52-48 (a difference of 7800 votes out of ~248,000 votes counted.

  306. 306.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    A runoff in Georgia is definitely better than a Walker win, but it makes me nervous. I think the GOP will turn out if Senate control is on the line.

  307. 307.

    Ohio Mom

    @artem1s: I didn’t get or agree with Ryan’s attempt to unseat Pelosi and I thought he didn’t belong in the overcrowded Democratic presidential primary either. Seemed too big for his britches both times.

    But I was willing to overlook all that because I am a very loyal Blue voter. Hearing he dissed the Black women voters of NE Ohio on top of his first two miscalculations, ouch!

    Stil doesn’t make Vance’s win easier to take.

  309. 309.

    Kent

    @senyordave:Fetterman will definitely win, I looked at the county results and he has at least 250,000 to add to his lead  in Philly and the suburbs.  Oz can offset only a portion of that.  Fetterman is up by about 75k, I’ll bet he wins by at least 200k.

    In this world we live in, the Senate is hellishly more important than the house.  So we HAVE to win PA.  Because all judges come through the Senate.  The Biden Administration is probably done legislating anyway at this point anyway.  The next two years will be all executive branch actions and judicial appointments.

  312. 312.

    BeautifulPlumage

    DelBene, Jayapal, & Smith all called in WA House races. No surprises in the 2 red districts staying the same, looks like we keep the rest blue. It will be great if W-3 flips R to D!

  313. 313.

    Barbara

    @WaterGirl: ​I think it’s RI-1, which should be safe D, but R candidate was strong and literally every poll had him up by at least 5 since June.

  314. 314.

    trollhattan

    California Propositions (less than 1 hour after poll closing).

    1 Abortion amendment yes 69%
    26 Sports gambling no 72%
    27 Moar sports gambling no 85%
    28 School arts, sports funding yes 62%
    29 Dialysis clinic someone smart on site no 70%
    30 Tax the rich for wildfire programs no 56%
    31Flavored tobacco ban yes 66%

    Statewide races all going to Democrats, plus Education secretary non partisan seat going to incumbent Thurmond.

    What’s it mean? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  316. 316.

    Cameron

    @Ohio Mom: I don’t think that most of the Olds who move here nowadays follow any Mosaic religion; they’re primarily Benjaminic (I can’t include myself, since I have neither a pot to piss into nor a window to throw it out of).  Warm weather, no state income tax, a governor who delights in terrifying oppressed minorities – what’s not to like?

  317. 317.

    tobie

    I know PA still has mail votes to count. Is the same true for Georgia? It would be great if Warnock could get 50.1% and we’d be done with Walker as a political figure forever.

  318. 318.

    Martin

    @Anoniminous: Nailed it.

    I have not seen a single sign or ad for any statewide race. Presumably there was a governor debate at some point. It’s how you know things are safe.

  319. 319.

    OGLiberal

    @Ohio Mom: And they’re being replaced by wingnut assholes from Staten Island.  I will say the shift in the Latino vote there is worrisome.

  323. 323.

    Alison Rose

    It’s hardly a shock, but you could go ahead and add Newsom to the governors list. AP called it by like 8:02, right now with 28% reporting, he’s up 62.2% to 37.8% over Dahle. The headline from SFGate a few months back was “California Republicans send latest sacrifice to Gavin Newsom” and……yep.

  325. 325.

    JWR

    TV guy just said that for Walker (GA) to make up what he needs to win, he’ll have to get it somewhere, and that somewhere is in solidly Dem areas. Here’s hoping!

  326. 326.

    phdesmond

    Guardian:

    Democrat Becca Balint made history by winning Vermont’s only House seat, becoming the first woman and first out LGBTQ+ person to represent the state in Congress.

  327. 327.

    senyordave

    @JWR: If you look at the county results there is virtually no way Hobbs can lose.  Maricopa county is only half counted and she’s up by 135k, and Pima county is at 41% and she’s up by 70k there.  I think she’ll win by almost 20 points.  Lake will have to be placated with a spot on Fox.

  329. 329.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Quinerly: Dems should have spent more money on Beasley and Ryan and less in Floriduh which right now is a waste of money.

    Crazy Paul Gosar got reelected. He had no Dem opposition. He also looks like he’s got some neurological disease – Parkinsons? Huntingtons? There’s just something wrong with the guy. I wonder if he’ll even finish his term.

  336. 336.

    JoyceH

    I’m so relieved that Spanberger carried – I have a Dem Representative for the first time in 30 years! (Was redistricted into the new 7th). I’ve been obsessively watching the coverage since 4 pm. I know, I know, not like I can change anything, but Jorts addressed that very issue on Twitter – (I find him so soothing!)

    Jorts tweeted:

    “Sure, you ‘should not’ look at returns constantly. I also ‘should not’ bite the tissues. Be realistic”

    And:

    “WE KNOW the info doesn’t even matter for hours or likely days! We also KNOW it’s rude to bite the tissues and spit slobbery shreds everywhere.

    Yet here we are”

    (For those of you who don’t know, Jorts is a cat.)

  337. 337.

    Kay

    Criminal justice reform prosecutors are doing ok, so media exaggerated the law n order electorate too.

  339. 339.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Mai Naem mobile:

    Honestly, I don’t think more money would have changed the outcome of either OH or NC. Ohio is just too red, and ditto for NC, even though it has some blue oases. Cheri Beasley was an excellent candidate, but it wasn’t going to happen.

  343. 343.

    Alison Rose

    @trollhattan: According to trump lawyer Christina Bobb, it means THEY ALL CHEATED AND EVERY ELECTION WAS RIGGED!!!!! Couple months ago she said that if Newsom is the Dem nominee in 2024 (which he will not be), it would prove we were planning to steal the election because he rigged his first election vote and the recall.

    Yes. That is the only explanation for why a DEMOCRAT would win in CALIFUCKINGFORNIA.

    These people. Good lord.

  346. 346.

    Sister Golden Bear

    In the least surprising race ever, Newsom is re-elected CA’s governor. All other major state officials also expected to make comfortable wins, as is Senator Padilla.

    Even though it’s early, Prop 1 (abortion rights) has already been called in favor. (It had been polling extremely.

    Also too… @JWR: CA refineries going down at the point when the oil companies can most drive up prices is a regular as the swallows returning to Capistrano.

  347. 347.

    WaterGirl

    Can anyone tell me which of these are pickups and which are seats that we kept?

    Democratic House

    Florida – Max Frost
    Illinois – Lauren Underwood
    Kansas – Sharice Davids (keep)
    New Mexico – Teresa Fernández
    Ohio – Emilia Sykes (keep)
    Ohio – Greg Landsman (pickup)
    Ohio – Marcy Kaptur (keep)
    Pennsylvania – Summer Lee
    Washington – Adam Smith
    Washington – Pramila Jayapal (keep)
    Washington – Susan DelBene

  350. 350.

    Bupalos

    @Kent: I think the Florida story is worse than that. I think this weird religious fascist “go back in time” shit is working way better than it should be with second and third gen immigrants.

  351. 351.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Cameron: Florida reminds me of Australia’s Sunshine Coast. Full of retirees and the real estate agents who fleece them.  It also returns conservative A holes to the State parlt, and is a conservative stronghold in Federal elections.

    It might be that there are other states where with more effort and money could be flipped in the future?

    Tourism is not a good economic base for centre left parties as a rule, although eco tourism often results in independents winning in Oz.

  352. 352.

    ian

    @cain:

    @Bill Arnold:

    Can we not wildly speculate about election conspiracies without any proof?  That is the favorite pastime of someone that I don’t think we need to engage in here.

  353. 353.

    jonas

    @Alison Rose: ​
      California Republicans fucked up so bad when the decided to try and recall Newsom last year. Stupidest political own-goal ever. Instead of waiting a year and building up consensus behind a strong challenger and beating a drumbeat around a few select issues like housing and crime or something, they shot their wad with — *rolls eyes* — batshit Trumper Larry Elder and let Newsom show how indomitable he was. So of course a year later when an *actual* election rolls around, no viable Repubicans or donors want to bother and you get this poor schmuck Dahle who never stood a chance.

  354. 354.

    Geoduck

    Along with the good national news, here in my corner of WA state, the cartoonishly corrupt sheriff looks likely to be tossed out on his ass. (He ran headlong into a citizen’s car while just driving around, and got the county to slow-walk any trial for four years. His twin brother is the sheriff in the next county to the south, and they appoint each other as “outside experts”.)

  358. 358.

    Ohio Mom

    @Princess: Landsman is mine! I thought he ran a terrible campaign by the way. Too low key, and like Ryan, played down his Blueness.

    The bigger backstory is, we Ohioans voted to end gerrymandering in Congressional districting (and also, statehouse districts). The Republicans in Columbus dragged their feet and kept submitting one gerrymandered map after another that the state Supreme Court kept rejecting.

    Eventually they ran out the clock and we were stuck with not so great maps for the primary and then general elections. But they did throw a bone our way and reunited the previous blue Hamilton county back into one Congressional district (the county where Cincinnati is).

    So yes, Landsman won but he had his voters given to him. Not complaining!!

  363. 363.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Eolirin: Agreed. NC is an worthwhile and important investment, but Beasley wasn’t going to win and more money wasn’t going to change that.

  368. 368.

    Martin

    Everything looking okay for CA house races so far. The problem in CA, even though Dems dominate the house seats, there’s almost no opportunity for gains, so it’s all downside risk. CA is where we hold the House, not where we win it.

  371. 371.

    artem1s

    @Ohio Mom:

    But I was willing to overlook all that because I am a very loyal Blue voter

    not much choice. He had a chance to redeem himself. If he’d come out strong against Dobbs he could have made some headway against Vance’s appeal to suburban and rural whites. He also should have been begging both Biden and Obama to campaign for him. He needed both Cleveland and Akron. And Obama would have helped him bring in votes in every college town in the state. I honestly wonder if the ass thought he was going to win and then challenge Schumer for Majority Leader or even Biden in 2024. He did tend to overreach. oh well. Like I said, there are a lot of really exciting young Black leaders coming up in OH.

  372. 372.

    Alison Rose

    @Martin: And I’ll continue my monthly donations to the National Network of Abortion Funds so those in other areas can make it here when they need care. I’m glad we can be that safe harbor, even though it makes me bonkers that your bodily autonomy is dependent upon your zip code.

  376. 376.

    Matt McIrvin

    @guachi: That’s too bad but that was a tough district. I’m just amazed that Spanberger held on. In a real red wave she’d be gone.

  377. 377.

    Bupalos

    i know I’m the only one here with the stomach to watch JD Vance’s acceptance and I did get a payoff. He thanked everyone under the sun but rather pointedly never thanked Trump. I think it was somewhat jarring to the room. Pretty sure I heard “Trump” yelled from the crowd at one of his several “and finally’s”

    Wouldn’t be surprised if this makes a headline or 2. Maybe the schism really is forming up.

  380. 380.

    Kent

    @Bupalos:@Kent: I think the Florida story is worse than that. I think this weird religious fascist “go back in time” shit is working way better than it should be with second and third gen immigrants.

    Way too many Hispanic immigrants from countries like Venezuela and Cuba that are socialist shitholes.  Plus, Florida isn’t a land border state so the immigrants that get there tend to be of the wealthier sort who follow their money up here.  So it isn’t surprising that many are going MAGA.

    That is all completely different from CA, NM, AZ, and NV which are mostly Mexican and Central American immigrants who crossed land borders.  The only thing they have in common with the MAGA Cubans and Venezuelans is common language.

  381. 381.

    trollhattan

    @Alison Rose: Let’s you and me and a passel of CA jackals just go steal that election. I’ll carry the sack. They’ll be “right” and we’ll win.

  383. 383.

    Quinerly

    MSNBC decision desk predicts Repugs take House with 219….but with plus/minus 13 seats margin of error.

    It will be weeks before we know for sure. CA ballots to be counted.

  384. 384.

    Juju

    @WaterGirl: I really hope that Hobbs defeats the election denying scary Stepford wife candidate for AZ gov. I sent her money, I think. I’ve lost track. Keeping my fingers crossed for AZ.

  389. 389.

    Kent

    @cain:Fuck really disappointed about the GA race. I think misogyny is the culprit. It’s fucking bullshit.

    It’s not misogyny.  Abrams and Warnock are pretty similar candidates.

    The difference is that Kemp is at the very MINIMUM a 5 points better candidate than Walker for every damn reason you can think of and then some.

  391. 391.

    Princess

    Just saw Nate Silver say that Dems are leading in 17-7 toss up and lean house races. In a red wave, you’d expect the opposite — in 2010 and 2014 Rs won almost all the close races.

    And Nate needs a new job.

  393. 393.

    Kent

    @Jinchi: A runoff in GA will put an absolute LASER focus on Walker which isn’t a good thing for Walker.  He was basically able to coast into this general election on a national wave of MAGA and had Kemp and all the other GA races to buoy him.

    He will be all by his fucking lonesome with the spotlight on him in a runoff.

    That doesn’t mean he will lose.  But I don’t see how that plays to his advantage.

  394. 394.

    senyordave

    @Juju: Hobbs has it in the bag, Lake is getting crushed in the big counties, and not even doing all that well even in the smaller, rural counties.  She’s winning them, but not by the huge margins she would need.

  396. 396.

    Martin

    @Quinerly: A narrow GOP victory will in some ways be tolerable because it means that the GOP caucus will be utterly unmanageable with folks like MTG and Gosar being the key deciding votes. That means anything Congress does is going to have their demands elevated to the national level. You think people are annoyed with Manchin? Wait until it’s MTG up there making demands on the nightly news every day. People’s tolerance of the GOP is going to fall off real, real fast.

    It’s much worse than a Dem win, but it probably gridlocks the House and prevents too much damage and sets Dems up really well for 2024. Probably means Dems fair okay in special election in the interim as well.

  399. 399.

    jonas

    Abortion rights amendments look headed for easy passage by wide margins in CA, MI and VT. Attempts to restrict abortion appear headed for defeat in KY (!) and MT. Oy, look for Republican legislatures to double down on finding ways to keep voters from actually voting on choice. If you can’t outlaw abortion in Kentucky? Shit.

  400. 400.

    artem1s

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    time to go and figure out which counties haven’t reported yet and how they leaned in 2020. I seem to remember it taking a long time to get results from the Blue countie.

  401. 401.

    Kay

    Proposal Three passed in Michigan. That’s the pro-choice initiative.

    When Whitmer wins it will be a good night for Ds in Michigan. Governor, state supreme court and a pro choice initiative.

  402. 402.

    Martin

    @Kent: We also saw in 2020 what happened when Dems could throw everything into one runoff state. I’m guessing there’s more Dem upside in GA than there is GOP in terms of votes to turn out.

  403. 403.

    Kent

    @BeautifulPlumage:Looks like Warnock is less than 1,000 votes behind Walker. He could still do this

    They are both sitting at 49.0 percent.  The Libertarian is pulling 2%.  Unless one of them gets to 50.0% (which doesn’t seem likely at this point) it is going to a runoff no matter which one gets the most votes here.  So he doesn’t need 1000 votes to beat Walker.  He needs more like 50,000 to get to 50%.

  404. 404.

    One of the Many Jens

    Regarding Ryan, I’ve seen some folks crediting his strong showing, even in a loss, to helping other Ohio Dems win. Sucks that Vance gets in the Senate, but glad that Ryan made a race of it.

  406. 406.

    Bupalos

    @Eolirin: Never say never. Ohio has been on the wrong end of some economic trends, but trends change. I’ll have to mull these numbers and races but tonight looks overall and in context like Ohio at least stopped sliding the wrong direction.

  407. 407.

    kalakal

    @Aussie Sheila:

    Florida reminds me of Australia’s Sunshine Coast. Full of retirees and the real estate agents who fleece them.  It also returns conservative A holes to the State parlt,

    Pretty much the same can be said of most of England’s South Coast.

    Florida is becoming less attractive to retirees. They’re mostly on fixed incomes and it’s become more expensive to live here.

    Ironically, I think climate change is going to be the deciding factor, not directly because of rising sea levels or worse storms but because insurance costs are going crazy. I love the place but unless that is fixed will probably move when I retire. Next question is where?

  413. 413.

    artem1s

    Looks like tens of thousands of votes left in Warnock leaning counties. Almost all the Walker counties only have a few hundred or under 5K uncounted votes. I think Warnock may actually come out with more than 50%. What’s the voter suppression strategy in GA? Are they going to try to stop the counting at midnight or some other dumb shit

    Update -So far Warnock is outperforming Biden and Warnock is not out performing Rump.

  414. 414.

    Ohio Mom

    @Alison Rose: it’s possible to have two unrelated diagnoses at the same time, Gosar can be a total piece of shot and also have a progressive neurological / movement disorder. After watching a video of him writhing, he probably does.

    @Cameron: The old, liberal Jews we knew who moved to Florida did it for the weather yes, maybe the taxes, but also for the community. Lots of people just like them, lots of grocery stores and restaurants filled with old, familiar, beloved foods.

    When my aunt (originally from NYC) approached the newbie couple at her Florida assisted living place to welcome them, and learned they were from Cincinnati, she said, “Do you know my niece, Ohio Mom?” “Oh yes! Her whole family! We are good friends!”

    They wouldn’t have that experience retiring any where else. And now they are all gone. No one in my generation has there eyes on retiring to Florida.

  416. 416.

    columbusqueen

    @Ohio Mom: Agreed with all this. It’s probably why the DNC didn’t spend more in Ohio; Tim’s been sticking his fingers in the leadership’s eyes for quite a while.

  417. 417.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @One of the Many Jens: Sucks that Vance gets in the Senate,

    But not surprising, the Right still hasn’t learned it’s lesson from Donald Trump about opportunistic celebrities make pretty useless elected officials.

  419. 419.

    JWR

    Watching PBS now, and one of their election people noted that while the Rs need a 5 seat pickup, so far they’ve only flipped 2. Then some R guy says the Rs will end up with an 11, maybe a 15 seat majority. Who knows? Not him.

    Then Gary Abernathy chimes in, says something really dumb, and I flip away.

    Also, in California, Proposition One, enshrining abortion access in the state constitution, is leading 69 to 31, about the margin in the recent Newsom recall.

  420. 420.

    Cameron

    @Aussie Sheila: I think there are some things that can be done in Florida for positive change at the local level.  I’d like to wait a few days until the election sorts itself out, then solicit thoughts from real Floridians (I’ve only lived here six years – not a carpetbagger (too 19th-century), too poor to be a totebagger, so maybe…a paperbagger?).  There appears to be a lot of freedom (real freedom, not the crap that Ronnie D and the Repubs talk about) for municipal governments here.  Anyway, let’s see what goes down this week.

  421. 421.

    Aussie Sheila

    @kalakal:

    I agree. Insurance costs in places affected by rising sea levels is going to be huge, where it isn’t already a big issue.

    Retirees are always going to be conservative, rich ones more so.

    It is far more important to get young people into the habit of reliably voting everywhere, than to chase the votes of a bunch of rich old farts imho.

    Oh and before I forget, Joe Biden has been/is a truly excellent President. Much better imho than Obama. Political experience and chops matter in high office. Who knew?

  423. 423.

    Glidwrith

    @Juju: It’s late and this isn’t directed particularly at you, but multiple Juicers tonight have shrugged over NC being red.

    I remember NC being blue. I remember it being taken over by the thugs using Art Pope’s money. NC has the Golden Triangle of academic institutions, similar to core academics here in San Diego.

    I remember the thugs promptly dismantling voters rights, handing huge tax cuts to the rich assholes and paying for them using funds that should have gone to education.

    Given what NC had been less than ten years ago, why should it be so hard to set it right?

  424. 424.

    jonas

    Hochul seems to be hanging in there at about 55-45 over Zeldin. I think they’ll probably call that pretty soon. Conole-Williams is tightening, as predicted, now around 52-48.​
     

    ETA: I see now the major news outlets are calling it for Hochul.

  428. 428.

    cain

    @O. Felix Culpa: I believe we will eventually flip NC.  It will take time..

    I don’t know about Florida which keeps important other states wingnuts and ex Latin American people who hate socialism. Texas is the one I am flabbergasted by. With all the problems they have had with with infrastructure it just floors me that Beto could not win there.

  429. 429.

    Cameron

    @Ohio Mom: There are still pretty substantial Jewish communities here, but I think the state is becoming increasingly unfriendly.  My own view (I’m no expert) is that MAGA breeds antisemitism, despite Trump’s own family ties.  And since MAGA is the special of the day with Republicans, any place dominated by them is going to be pretty unfriendly to Jews and pretty tolerant of hate groups.

    I really like Florida, at least Manatee County where I live.  Still love Pennsylvania, but I don’t miss the winter.

  430. 430.

    Jinchi

    Warnock just squeaked ahead in the count 49.1% to 48.8%. About 10,000 votes ahead of Walker.

    It looks to me like most of the votes left to be counted are in heavily Democratic areas like Atlanta and Augusta. The margin should just grow bigger from here on out.

  431. 431.

    phdesmond

    the Guardian:
    In Detroit, The Guardian’s Sam Levine reports the Democratic secretary of state has claimed a reelection victory against a challenger who denied the 2020 election:
    “Well, well, well democracy has prevailed,” Michigan secretary of state Jocelyn Benson said as she took the stage here at the Democratic election night party. She declared victory in her race to serve a second-term as Michigan’s top election official over Kristina Karamo, a community college professor who rose to prominence by questioning the 2020 election results.

  432. 432.

    Kent

    @Jinchi:

    Warnock just squeaked ahead in the count 49.1% to 48.8%. About 10,000 votes ahead of Walker.

    It looks to me like most of the votes left to be counted are in heavily Democratic areas like Atlanta and Augusta. The margin should just grow bigger from here on out.

    Reminder.  It isn’t enough to win.  He needs to get to 50% to avoid a runoff.  Or conversely, he only has to prevent Walker from getting to 50% to avoid a loss.

  433. 433.

    mvr

    Last my twitter feed tells me Vargas is a tad behind in NE02 (Omaha) but within a realistic possibility of winning when the last votes are counted. Many other races here have been called, and again so far as I can tell from my twitter feed, the minimum wage is going up (somewhat slowly) to 15 bucks.
    My fingers remain crossed.

  434. 434.

    JWR

    @Anyway: Don’t count Mandela Barnes out just yet. Just saw Major Garrett to one of those “what will it take for him to win?” things, and the need 53% of the outstanding vote, which are from quite blue areas.

  437. 437.

    JoyceH

    And Ben Collins has been monitoring the right wing extremist internet and reports a Weird Vibe. They were all Red Wave earlier in the evening and now “ they’re catatonic”.

  438. 438.

    jonas

    Oof. Williams now neck-and-neck with Conole in NY-22, with most votes still coming in from Oneida county. Not looking good. Conole would need a big batch of late ballots from Utica or somewhere like that to turn this around.

  442. 442.

    Juju

    @Glidwrith: Perhaps I shouldn’t have been so flippant in my remark. I’ve lived in NC since 1980, and the senator I tend to remember is Helms. We’ve had mostly Democratic governors, but after Clinton the presidential wins have gone to Republicans except for one Obama win in 2008. The state legislature had a veto proof Republican majority until recently and it may go back to that again. The state is very close to 50/50 but the representation is majority Republicans. I keep working for Democratic representation, and you are right, Art Pope was a human blight on the state, but until the rural voters figure out that the economy actually does better under Democratic representation, it will probably be close, but remain red for the time being. I hope Governor Cooper Runs against Thom Tillis. Cherie Beasley was an excellent candidate. I just don’t know what’s wrong with the youth. I had hope they would turn out to vote for her, but they didn’t.  At least the ones related to me did, and bravo to my niece and nephews.  My heart is broken for Cherie Beasley. I did what I could.
    Sorry for the digression.

  443. 443.

    Another Scott

    @Juju: I think that voting is still too difficult and still requires too much effort – especially for new voters.

    Make registration automatic.  Make voting by mail universal for everyone.  Make the voting period a month.  Make it free.  Remove all the friction from voting and more people will vote and make it a habit.  And also do things like ranked choice / automatic runoff / top-2 or 4 jungle / whatever, so that cynical spoilers cannot thwart the will of the voters.

    It will probably take federal legislation for that to happen, but it needs to get done.  When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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