Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

I really should read my own blog.

When we show up, we win.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

The willow is too close to the house.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Everybody saw this coming.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

You are here: Home / Domestic Terrorism / Repub Misdirection Open Thread: Staying On Target in A Blizzard of Chaff

Repub Misdirection Open Thread: Staying On Target in A Blizzard of Chaff

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… Donald Trump was and is a continuing crisis for the American republic. I would never deny that. I’ve made this claim central to almost everything I’ve written about him going back almost eight years. But managing our own emotional and cognitive equilibrium is central to handling someone like Donald Trump. That is both to live in a sane and ethical way while he marauds through our political life and because bending reality is central to the kind of threat he presents.

At a political rally yesterday Trump said this prosecution represented the “final battle”. The threat of violence in that statement speaks for itself. But this is Trump’s basic pattern. Everything is the final battle, the biggest this or that ever, the biggest surprise, the biggest hoax, the final showdown. It’s this hyped up, florid moral state that keeps his supporters spellbound and his foes constantly guessing and often off-balance.

It is wise not to participate in the reality distortion field the man whips up about him. This man is not the President. Yes, he is a leading candidate for President. But he declared his candidacy when he did to a great degree because he knew these charges were coming. Before the indictment and now more expansively in the indictment, it’s clear that these are far from technical violations of the law. They show a willful theft of government secrets, on-going deception about the theft, continued efforts to deceive federal agents trying to recover the government’s secret documents. The conduct is so brazen and over the top that it would be virtually impossible for any prosecuting authority to decline to prosecute other than on the basis of Trump’s status giving him immunity from the law or for fear of the violence of his supporters…

Will Trump diehards commit acts of violence? Maybe. But I’m going to wait to see them do it. I’m not going to pump up the psychic tenor of the moment based on what they hint they might do on Twitter. When a Freedom Caucus dead-ender like Clay Higgins hints at mobilizing a Trump guerrilla army I am going to properly refer to him as another terror-inciting degenerate and basically say, ‘Go for it.’ That’s not taunt or bravado. It’s just a refusal to get psyched out. If that’s what you need to do, do it and we’ll go from there. I will assume federal authorities are taking all necessary precautions. And that’s it. If there’s another version of those feral goons plotting to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, federal authorities will arrest them.

It’s important to react to each development on the merits and not get ahead of it.

Trump’s indictment is very straightforward and unsurprising. I’m not going to get waylaid or bamboozled into pretending otherwise.

We follow the rules of law, in all their unevenness, because we are the ones arguing *against* ‘Because I can’ as a guiding principle. Ken White (Popehat), from his Substack: “Jack Smith, Donald Trump, and the Kobayashi Maru”:

… Yesterday, on our Emergent Situation Episode of Serious Trouble, Josh and I sparred a bit over the moral and political philosophy of Jack Smith’s decision to prosecute. I pointed out that the somewhat predictable assignment of the case to Judge Aileen Cannon — who proved herself to be an arguably lawless Trump partisan when she entertained his attempts to derail his own investigation — will make it extraordinarily difficult to convict him. If Judge Cannon presides over the case she can derail the prosecution in myriad ways, some of them unreviewable, if she wants to. Moreover, there’s reason to doubt that a Florida jury will convict Trump. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, striking Trump down with a federal indictment may make him more powerful than we can possibly imagine. Trump will use the prosecution to energize his base, propagandize “independents,” and fundraise from rubes. It’s very possible it will make it easier to win the Republican nomination and plausible it will help him win the Presidency, which he will use to pardon himself and further demolish the rule of law….

… [T]he Principles of Federal Prosecution suggest that if Jack Smith thinks that if Trump’s prosecution serves an important federal interest (it does) and the evidence is objectively factually and legally sufficient (it is), then he’s bound to bring the case even if Trump’s popularity makes a unanimous verdict difficult, risks a partisan judge, and threatens political upheaval. As Josh suggests, Jack Smith can and should make strategic decisions about what approach is soundest and most likely to lead to conviction. But the indictment in this case is overwhelmingly strong – one of the most devastating on its face that I’ve seen in my career. If Jack Smith can prove those facts, that is far more than enough to convict Trump. The only arguments against it are political.

In my view, it’s also the morally and philosophically correct course.

First, jury nullification can be a force for justice and a bulwark against tyranny. It can also be an expression of ignorance and bigotry and an expression of injustice. Prosecutors should consider justice but not be deterred by the chance that jurors should be unjust. Anything less means that you let jurors decide who is or isn’t protected or bound by the rule of law.

Second, some judges will always be partisan, and some politicians will seek to appoint or elect partisan judges. It’s not fair. But nobody promised you it would be fair…

Third, it’s corrosive and unjust to say that we won’t hold people to account because they are popular and powerful. The system doesn’t need more of that, thank you, we’re all stocked up. It’s already a fact, we don’t need to make it a policy as well. Strongmen already fare indescribably better than normal citizens when facing the justice system. Going full-on junta and making it an official principle of prosecution not to prosecute the powerful means abandoning even an aspiration of equality before the law.

Fourth, yielding to people who say “if you punish me or my friends for breaking the law I’ll hurt you” is a terrible way to run a society. It’s governance by thugs. If someone says “if you apply the rule of law to hold me accountable for my conduct, I will later abuse the rule of law to punish you,” you know that person is a dishonest, dishonorable partisan. There is no rational basis to believe that a dishonest, dishonorable partisan will ever behave well. In other words, the proposition “Trump and his cronies will abuse the system if we prosecute them, but if we don’t, they will behave” is deeply dubious. Paying the Danegeld — whether in coin or in abandonment of principles — doesn’t deter the Danes from reaving any more than throwing bacon at a dog makes it run away. To the contrary, abandoning the rule of law to avoid angering Trump and his ilk makes them bolder, not more compliant.

It’s popular to say America’s in civilizational decline. It’s possible; I don’t know. I’m skeptical of narratives that make us extraordinary. But I know this: if we’re going down, we should go down swinging, not cringing. Donald Trump boldly, gratuitously, arrogantly broke the law. He’s bragged about being able to do so without consequence. He’s not being persecuted, he’s being provided with due process that will give him myriad ways to defend himself and vindicate his rights, and his vast resources make him uniquely suited to do so. If the Department of Justice doesn’t take the shot, then what’s the point of it?

And finally, if further reassurance is needed, Juliette Kayyem, who studies these people, on the possibility of further domestic terrorism:

2)Trump is not in charge nor can he direct police or military assets; 3)Local, state and federal authorities have considerable notice to organize and now know that this is not a drill; 4)still, this is Florida, not NYC, and the pool of people likely to support Trump is bigger; 2/

5)Within MAGA land, there is a clear understanding that Trump did not bail the 1/6 defendants out and can not do so now; 6)It only takes one person, in Miami or elsewhere, and the guns are real so I think that concern of the one off is greater than some organized move; 3/

7)The protestors in support of Trump are asserting their First Amendment rights because we are a democracy, but if anybody might listen to me I wouldn’t bother with counter-protesting. Let it be. It will be over in a few hours. Troll people on twitter instead. 4/

Reader Interactions

166Comments

  2. 2.

    Old Man Shadow

    The side effect of our constant gun violence is that it makes one numb to the threats of impotent little men who are outraged that the rest of us refuse to acknowledge their leadership and specialness.

    So… I don’t want violence to happen, but if they force it on the nation, we’ll deal with it and we’ll deal with them. There’s always another cell or grave to toss them in.

  4. 4.

    Old School

    Isn’t the point of the Kobayashi Maru that we need to rig the system to get the outcome we want?

  5. 5.

    japa21

    Not sure if Trump will be convicted, but pretty sure he won’t be acquitted. And with so many counts, I would expect him to be found guilty on at least one.
    As to the violence, I don’t worry about it.
    The two lines from Popehat that mean the most:

    But I know this: if we’re going down, we should go down swinging, not cringing

    To the contrary, abandoning the rule of law to avoid angering Trump and his ilk makes them bolder, not more compliant.

  6. 6.

    Litlebritdifrnt

    I think many people are overhyping Judge Cannon’s ability to kow tow to Trump in her rulings.  I knew and worked with a boat load of Judges when I worked as a paralegal in the US.  I can tell you with certainty that the one thing a Judge hates is being struck down on appeal, and not only struck down on appeal but totally evicerated by the appeals court judges in their written opinion when they are striking you down.  It is embarrassing, it is humiliating, especially when the appeals court judges spell out how absolutely wrong you have been in your interpretation of the law.  NC Appeals Court Judges were particularly adept at doing this when I was working and fellow Judges would print out opinions and highlight them and then place them on the notice boards of the lawyers lounge for comic effect.  The appeals panel has already let Aileen Cannon what they think of her interpretation of the law when it comes to Trump, there is no way she is going to allow herself to be humiliated by the appeals court again, she is still stinging from the last go around. She is going to make sure everything she does keeps her from being tongue lashed by the 11th circuit again, trust me on this one.

  7. 7.

    Xavier

    What Biden and Pence and Clinton did were mistakes. We generally don’t prosecute honest mistakes, and for good reasons.

  8. 8.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Old School: In Star Trek lore, the test was supposed to be a test of character in the face of certain defeat, but young Jim Kirk turned it into a cheeky demonstration of l33t hax0r skills and somehow Starfleet was not just volcanically pissed at his cheating. The whole thing strikes me as adapted from one of those old memes about the student acing the course with a smartass two-word exam essay, or the Navy SEAL cold-cocking the atheist professor.

  9. 9.

    bbleh

    As noted elsewhere, I’m with her on this.  The base isn’t growing, and the vast majority of them are all loud talk and no significant action.  The few remaining, such as rioted on 1/6, require leadership and validation, both of which are now in short supply by comparison.  That leaves the Tim McVeighs, and yeah they’re a significant risk of major violence.

    But by far the greatest risk is political: something (eg serious recession, some military spasm that affects us) derails the Biden campaign and TFG gets re-elected.  THAT’s what we need to work against.

  11. 11.

    waspuppet

    @Litlebritdifrnt: I hope you’re right, but I’m fully confident that letting Trump off the hook for anything he does, ever, was a condition of her being offered her job, and reasonably confident that the offer and acceptance of these conditions was open and explicit.

    Still, “But I know this: if we’re going down, we should go down swinging, not cringing” is the key. Not prosecuting Trump is not better than his being acquitted. No one went to jail in virtually any of the Civil Rights-era murders, but at least the rot was exposed, and no one could pretend those people were respectable anymore. Not for a few decades, anyway,

  12. 12.

    Ken

    Maybe it’s just me, and maybe this needs a trigger warning, but the argument “If we prosecute him his supporters will get violent” makes me think of victims of domestic abuse trying to find ways to not get hit again.

  13. 13.

    Layer8Problem

    @Old School:  I have to say I never got the point of the Kobayashi Maru exercise.  By the time Saavik got to it it would have been long known at the Academy.  “Yeah, the Kobayashi Maru, big whoop, my aunt told me about it years ago.  You can’t beat it, you can’t reprogram it ’cause Kirk messed that idea up for everybody, it’s a pain in the ass, and Starfleet wants it because it teaches us Valuable Life Lessons as if we didn’t already figure out that sometimes you lose from frickin’ teen novels.” There may be better explanations of why to do it in the canon.

  14. 14.

    sdhays

    @Litlebritdifrnt: She is going to make sure everything she does keeps her from being tongue lashed by the 11th circuit again, trust me on this one.

    This makes sense if you think she’s a relatively normal, but extremely conservative, judge. But there’s strong evidence that she’s not. What does a lunatic with a lifetime appointment care about what the 11th Circuit has to say about her rulings?

    The worst they can do is overrule her and say she’s bad. Even if she somehow got impeached and removed, she would be a hero to the wing nut welfare crowd.

    It comes down to what does she want from her judgeship? Does she view it as the crown jewel of her career, or does she simply view it as a tool for other corrupt purposes? Her record so far in the case suggests the latter, but we’ll see.

  17. 17.

    Lapassionara

    I cannot imagine what our allies are thinking about the US right now. The “indispensable nation” elected a demented con man with no regard for either his country’s or any other country’s secrets, and could elect him again. That the Republicans can’t see the vast danger he puts us in is so bizarre, I can’t wrap my mind around it.

    The whole world is watching!

  18. 18.

    Baud

    @Ken:

    In this case, however, a lot of the people saying it aren’t “victims” of abuse, but pro-fascist forces trying to make decent people nervous and timid.

  19. 19.

    Betty Cracker

    @Litlebritdifrnt: I hope you’re right. I read an interesting article in Slate earlier about the necessity of Loose Cannon recusing herself and different ways to effect her removal if she fails to do so. It’s hard to summarize, so here’s a lengthy excerpt:

    Under binding 11th Circuit precedents a case should be reassigned to a different judge if, among other reasons, the original judge would have “difficulty” setting aside her previous views and findings and reassignment would not result in a waste of judicial resources. Those factors clearly weigh in favor of reassignment here, due to the difficulties that Judge Cannon will likely face in diverging from her previous unorthodox and wrongful rulings benefiting Trump.

    This is the path that appears most likely to be pursued if Judge Cannon is to be removed, because her approach thus far suggests that it unlikely that the judge will recuse herself. DOJ might choose to make the case in a recusal motion that it would be better for her and everyone concerned if she stepped aside. In just about any other high-profile criminal case, if a trial judge were to err in the direction of excessive leniency favoring a criminal defendant in a preliminary hearing and were reversed on appeal, law-and-order conservatives would be the first to say that trial judge had a conflict and should be removed. That judge’s reputation would be on trial. Impartiality would be too dubious. The same is true here.

    But the department may, as they often do, take the more conservative approach to recusal. If so, they may instead wait for the judge to overstep once more and at that point ask her, and if she refuses, ask the 11th Circuit to act. They could do so as part of the appeal of that particular issue if it is available pretrial, as are all CIPA rulings on classified document handling (the general area where she stumbled before). Or, if a Cannon ruling is sufficiently outrageous on an issue that is not normally appealable before trial, they could seek mandamus (available in unusual situations when a district judge is failing to perform their duty).

    Much more at the link — the writers suspect Cannon won’t recuse and game out various scenarios. I have no idea how credible their speculation is.

  20. 20.

    eclare

    @Lapassionara:

    I know.  The FBI found at least one document with the shorthand for Five Eyes on it.  If you were the UK, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand, how would you feel now about sharing intelligence with the US?

  21. 21.

    Falling Diphthong

    There’s always a danger that a lone mentally ill person spends time soaking in the threats of violence and thinks it’s a reason to act. (They couldn’t write it on Facebook if it weren’t true, right?)

    But for mob violence? Trump tried to call up mobs this year, and no one showed up. His fans suspected it was a trap by the FBI. When he was actually president, at the height of his power, his coup plan was lacking details other than “hide in bunker, MAGA, excellence.” He failed to pardon the January 6th rioters who were following his orders.

    I’m not saying his fans are geniuses, but they can figure out that showing up is likely to get them on TV in the embarrassing “3 masked Trump supporters yelled at people in line at a food truck” way, and any actual violence is likely to get them in jail and Trump using them as a rhetorical device to fundraise for his latest defense fund.

    Maybe he does an NFT showing them crouched admiringly at his feet.

  22. 22.

    Brachiator

    @Old School:

    Isn’t the point of the Kobayashi Maru that we need to rig the system to get the outcome we want?

    Nope. The Kobayashi Maru exercise is a test of character, something that Trump lacks.

    Trump cannot stand to be called a loser, and yet he just keeps on losing. And keeps failing to learn. He’s stuck. Unfortunately, the rest of us have to deal with his wailing and fumbling.

  23. 23.

    Sandia Blanca

    @waspuppet: Even if that was a condition for her getting the job, she has the job and TIFG is no longer in a position to take that away from her.

  24. 24.

    Citizen Alan

    @sdhays: I genuinely wonder if Cannon is thinking that, if she successfully gets trump acquitted and he goes on to win in november 2024, she has a legitimate shot at getting nominated to the supreme court at some point.

  25. 25.

    cmorenc

    @Litlebritdifrnt:

    The appeals panel has already let Aileen Cannon what they think of her interpretation of the law when it comes to Trump, there is no way she is going to allow herself to be humiliated by the appeals court again, she is still stinging from the last go around. She is going to make sure everything she does keeps her from being tongue lashed by the 11th circuit again, trust me on this one.

    I sure hope you are right about that, and Judge Cannon won’t instead be inclined to take the gamble on the possibility she will be rewarded for successfully undermining Trump’s prosecution by a seat on SCOTUS someday will be worth any potential tongue-lashing from the 11th Circuit.  Also, if Trump is actually acquitted because she puts her thumb heavily on the scales, there won’t be any appeal whereby she might get said tongue-lashing from the 11th Circuit

    Edit:

    @Citizen Allen – I see we had the exact same thought about this.

  28. 28.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Baud: Orange Error is a bully the only way to stop a bully is to stand up to him.

    The tut-tutting MSM folks can STFU.

    Not a lawyer so have no opinion on Loose Cannon. I am sure the DOJ lawyers have gamed this scenario better than the Twitter lawyers and other members of the Do-Something brigade.

  30. 30.

    JCJ

    @Baud:  I am having a colonoscopy and EGD tomorrow so I will miss out on the festivities as well.  The one day every 10 years I am not completely FOS.

  31. 31.

    Matt McIrvin

    @cmorenc: I think some of the takes are assuming that she’s already decided to turn in her reputation as a judge for a new reputation as a right-wing subculture celebrity. If so, expect maximum fuckery as a show of MAGA power.

  32. 32.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Matt McIrvin: IMO Mark Joseph Stern always exaggerates for effect.  He has misrepresented the effect of appellate decisions several times in the past.  He is on our side, but he reminds me a bit of Andrew Sullivan.  Panicky.

  34. 34.

    waspuppet

    @Sandia Blanca: Again, I hope all of you are right, but “Donald Trump has no actual power over you” has been true for four of the past eight years and yet his hold on a certain segment of our population is stronger than ever.

  37. 37.

    sdhays

    @cain: Yes, normally. But is Cannon just a shitty movement conservative or is she fully MAGAT? If she’s full-on MAGAT, and there’s evidence to suggest she is, then the normal rules don’t apply when trying to predict her behavior.

  38. 38.

    Matt McIrvin

    @waspuppet: As long as Donald Trump is not term-limited or somehow barred from taking office, he COULD in some scenario become President again, and the percent probability of that is, I think, still in double digits.

  40. 40.

    Tom Levenson

    @Baud: I’ll be in the air for most of the lead in to Trump’s perp walk. I hate traveling in the security-theater-pandemic-ain’t-over era. But I’m actually glad of the enforced bubble I’ll be confined to for about six hours.

  41. 41.

    wenchacha

    I feel the way I did when Scalia croaked, and things looked good, then we lost RBG and everything went cattawumpus.

  42. 42.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: Not now, but remember how he freaked out in the run up to the 2012 election when Obama had a subpar debate performance? It was comically doomy!

  43. 43.

    Matt McIrvin

    @japa21: One of the Cannon sabotage scenarios in fact has her simply declaring an acquittal–this is possible.

  45. 45.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Litlebritdifrnt: If she presides over the trial, allows the trial to happen and then makes a Rule 29 Judgment of Acquittal, no appeal is possible because of the rule against double jeopardy. That’s the end of it, at least for these charges.

  46. 46.

    JPL

    Why did the South Carolina candidates for president jump ship and decide maybe trump actually is in trouble?

    I assume it’s nothing more than realizing that Marjorie has the inside track to become VP and they might as well walk away with some dignity left.

  47. 47.

    Betty Cracker

    @Tom Levenson: Yep. I think Sullivan’s hatred for Hillary Clinton originally led him to glom onto Obama. Then he got weirdly obsessed with conspiracy theories about Palin’s youngest child. He’s an odd duck for sure.

  48. 48.

    prostratedragon

    @JCJ:  Oh, you’ll merely be observing the festival in your own way. (I had that pairing a year or so ago.)

  50. 50.

    Anyway

    @Litlebritdifrnt:

    I hope you’re right! I am not a lawyer and only know Loose Cannon from her hacktacular rulings in Cheetolini’s favor in the earlier lawsuit. She has a track record that’s concerning and it’s not just people screaming “the sky is falling”.

  51. 51.

    narya

    at least for these charges

    @Matt McIrvin: Hence my wishcasting in a previous thread. I really have few doubts that Jack has thought about all of this, and has other document charges available, in another venue or even in this one. And, of course, the grift charges and the J6 charges.

  52. 52.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt McIrvin:

    If she presides over the trial, allows the trial to happen and then makes a Rule 29 Judgment of Acquittal, no appeal is possible because of the rule against double jeopardy.

    If she does that, the rule of law is dead.

  53. 53.

    Scout211

    To brighten your day, I present the crazy words of one twice-indicted ex-president:

    Virtually everyone is saying that the Indictment is about Election Interference & should not have been brought, except Bill Barr, a “disgruntled former employee” & lazy Attorney General who was weak & totally ineffective. He doesn’t mean what he’s saying, it’s just MISINFORMATION.Barr’s doing it because he hates “TRUMP” for firing him. He was deathly afraid of the Radical Left when they said they would Impeach him. He knows the Indictment is Bull…. Turn off FoxNews when that “Gutless Pig” is on!

     

    I didn’t know that Trump knew big words like virtually, but I don’t think that word means what he think it means.  But it’s kind of amusing that now “TRUMP” thinks Barr is a “Gutless Pig” because he actually was a gutless pig when he was Attorney General under “TRUMP.”

  54. 54.

    Elizabelle

    @Litlebritdifrnt:  Fabulous to see you here.  I know Jack Smith and his prosecution team have a strategy for dealing with Aileen Cannon, should she go rogue again.

    Hope all is well with you, as we speed toward summer.

  56. 56.

    Scout211

    Jack Smith is adding to his team.  LInk

     

    Former President Donald Trump isn’t alone in looking to beef up his legal team with lawyers who have experience in southern Florida. Special counsel Jack Smith has at least two prosecutors from the Miami US attorney’s office on his team.

    One of them is Karen Gilbert, a seasoned Miami prosecutor who supervised the Ma-a-Lago national security case involving a Chinese national who trespassed at the Trump property. Gilbert also was part of the team that helped prepare for the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago last August as part of the classified documents investigation.

    For context: The special counsel’s team determined in recent months that they would bring the case in Florida instead of Washington, DC, where they initially used a grand jury to gather evidence, people briefed on the matter told CNN.

    The complications over venue made clear that prosecutors would have to bring any charges in the district based in Miami, which also includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, the sources said.

  57. 57.

    NotMax

    FYI.

    Scuttlebutt is for Miami mayor Suarez to announce his bid for ’24 Republican prez nomination shortly. Possibly when while so many spotlights are focused on that city this week?

  58. 58.

    cmorenc

    @Matt McIrvin:

    @japa21: One of the Cannon sabotage scenarios in fact has her simply declaring an acquittal–this is possible.

    She is a graduate of Duke University (one of the southern “Ivies”) and was law review at University of Michigan, and order of Coif (high honor).  Don’t mistake that one heavy-handed blunder for broad stupidity.  And so, if she is again inclined to hackery, she will have  at least learned from her 11th Circuit rebuke that she needs to be more subtle in sabotaging Smith’s case by a thousand paper cuts in various bench rulings, rather than using blunt force hammers like the first time around.  If she decides to play partisan hack, she’ll steer the case to set up the jury do the actual dirty work of acquittal for her.

  59. 59.

    Jackie

    @Sandia Blanca: I was going to say words to the same effect.

    TIFG’s bite is toothless – unless he’s re-elected  — AND THAT’S NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!

    I’m planning on a major landslide Biden victory.

  60. 60.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @cmorenc:

    And so, she will have at least learned from her 11th Circuit rebuke of initial attempt at MAGA-judge hackery that she needs to be more subtle in sabotaging Smith’s case by a thousand paper cuts in various bench rulings, rather than a blunt force hammer like the first time around.

    Or perhaps she’s learned from the 11th circuit rebuke

  62. 62.

    eclare

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Not going to read anything that predicts DOOM.  At this point we don’t know, and we can’t control it anyway.

    Gotta focus on keeping Joe in November 2024.  That we can control.

  64. 64.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @waspuppet:

    his hold on a certain segment of our population is stronger than ever.

    His rally attendance numbers, the total lack of response the last time he complained about an arrest, and the way congress utterly ignored him on the debt ceiling suggests otherwise.

    They will never repudiate him.  They will always believe the election was stolen.  But they don’t care about him the way they used to.

  65. 65.

    eclare

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I was teased mercilessly by kids in school when we moved from TN to a small town in PA.  I remember my fourth grade teacher, Mr. Laubach, went to do something outside of the classroom, and immediately these girls started playing keep-a-way with my notebook, my pencil case, etc.  I hit the ringleader in the mouth, and they never bothered me again.

    Luckily Mr. Laubach was cool when he found us all crying. He just had us stand facing the wall in different corners of the hallway until our moms could pick us up.

    He also reminded the teasers that if you tease a dog enough times, eventually that dog will bite.  He knew what was going on.

  66. 66.

    Suzanne

    @Betty Cracker:

    Yep. I think Sullivan’s hatred for Hillary Clinton originally led him to glom onto Obama. Then he got weirdly obsessed with conspiracy theories about Palin’s youngest child. He’s an odd duck for sure.

    Remember the time he scratched his ass, with both hands, for, like, a reeeeeeeeeaaaaaaally long time?! On TV?! LORT

    ETA: here’s a snip. FSM blessed us.

  67. 67.

    Burnspbesq

    If you had “Andrew McCarthy eviscerates Trump” on your Right-Wing Pundit Bingo card, come on down and collect your prize. Can’t link to it because I’ve used up my freebies, but it’s easy to find on nr.com

  68. 68.

    hells littlest angel

    Second, some judges will always be partisan, and some politicians will seek to appoint or elect partisan judges. It’s not fair. But nobody promised you it would be fair…

     

    Uh, I’m pretty sure that blindfolded lady at the courthouse promised it would be fair.

  69. 69.

    Redshift

    I briefly clicked into a rabbit-hole of the things the wingnuts have convinced each other of to buy into the WITCH HUNT! theory, and hoo boy, it’s something. A lot of it amounts to taking the title of a law or regulation, and assuming what you can guess based on the title is the entirety of the law (kind of like Lindsey’s hysterical “you can’t charge him under the Espionage Act because he’s not a spy!”) Some samples:

    – The Presidential Records Act says they’re presidential records so he’s entitled to have them and that overrules classification rules!

    – This all started when Joe Biden “revoked” TFG’s executive privilege just to trap him in this.

    and on and on…

  70. 70.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Bill Arnold:

    If she does that, the rule of law is dead.

    That’s one of the reactions that Kanefield warns against.

    If we decide the rule of law is dead, the only thing left is force. Who do you shoot first? With what army?

    Or we can try to rebuild something.

    Keep in mind that (a) this is a criminal prosecution, which like all criminal prosecutions has rules slanted toward the presumption of innocence–but of course a hack judge can play merry hell with that, and (b) there’s already one other state indictment against Trump and there will probably be more federal ones, in different venues. Famous hack judges are not gonna get ’em all.

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @bbleh:

    Also quite a few of those asswipes from Jan 6 are serving time. Sure it seems a lot are serving quite a bit less time than many of us thought would be adequate but still they went to jail, they have a federal record. That stays with a person – always, and can affect a person’s life rather significantly.

  72. 72.

    lowtechcyclist

    @cmorenc: ​
     

    I’m not going to try to read Loose Cannon’s mind. But there is one obvious problem with this theory:

    And so, if she is again inclined to hackery, she will have at least learned from her 11th Circuit rebuke that she needs to be more subtle in sabotaging Smith’s case by a thousand paper cuts in various bench rulings, rather than using blunt force hammers like the first time around.

    And that is that the most blunt hammer at all, the Rule 29 acquittal, ends the case without the 11th Circuit having the opportunity to say anything about it.

    Again, whether she’s got the gall to use that hammer is beyond my knowledge. But the 11th Circuit isn’t going to be the reason she abstains, if she does.

  73. 73.

    Matt McIrvin

    @cmorenc: If Cannon were going to spring Trump with a Rule 29 judgment, the right way to play it would actually be to pretend that she learned her lesson and act like a completely normal judge up to the very end of the jury trial, and then WHAM.

    Acting unhinged at any point before that would tip her hand and get her forced out.

  74. 74.

    coin operated

    @cmorenc:

    And so, if she is again inclined to hackery, she will have  at least learned from her 11th Circuit rebuke that she needs to be more subtle in sabotaging Smith’s case by a thousand paper cuts in various bench rulings, rather than using blunt force hammers like the first time around.  If she decides to play partisan hack, she’ll steer the case to set up the jury do the actual dirty work of acquittal for her.

    It’s a long way from arraignment to trial.  Lots of motions will be filed and ruled on before a jury is empaneled.  If she tries any hackery Smith will simply object, take the objection to 11Cir (along with a copy of the previously administered bench-slap), and have her ass recused before the trial even gets started.

    Smith served at the International Criminal Court.  He has a lot of experience dealing with corrupt judical systems.  I’m certain he’s gamed this out.

  75. 75.

    Redshift

    @Scout211:

    The special counsel’s team determined in recent months that they would bring the case in Florida instead of Washington, DC, where they initially used a grand jury to gather evidence, people briefed on the matter told CNN.

    A couple of things I read about the choice of venue that I didn’t notice in yesterday’s thread (though I may have missed them):

    – They could have made an argument for DC, but since some of the alleged crimes definitely took place in Florida, it would be a fight. One of the obvious DC arguments is that the documents were initially stolen in DC, but if you recall, TFG skipped the inauguration and flew home, so it’s entirely possible they were taken while he was still president and he didn’t illegally possess them in DC (or that they couldn’t prove he did.)

    – There’s apparently a pending Supreme Court case about charges filed in the wrong venue, and they could rule that a prosecutor isn’t allowed to refile after a ruling that it was the wrong venue, the case is just dead. That raises the stakes of a fight over venue considerably.

  76. 76.

    Ruckus

    @Lapassionara:

    Not seeing some you don’t want to see is a rather large part of humanity. Much less often is the concept of finding all the dirt followed with the same fervor. Of course that first part is some of the reason that the second part is often less successful than it should be

    Let’s just move on could be considered a phrase that should be retired.

  77. 77.

    coin operated

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Acting unhinged at any point before that would tip her hand and get her forced out.

    My money is on her not understanding the myriad of legal ramifications all this classified material is going to bring to her court.  That’s what got her busted with the special master ruling…she’s not stupid but she is very inexperienced in cases involving classified material.  One slip and we go to back to the 11th Circuit for another bench slap.

  78. 78.

    Matt McIrvin

    @lowtechcyclist : The thing about that hammer, as I understand it, is that it requires deferring gratification because you have to use it while the actual jury trial is in progress, and maybe after all the evidence is presented (I’m not sure about that). So she’d have to do nothing that raises enough suspicion to get her booted up to that point. I think Cannon is enough of a hack to do this but she might not be enough of a strategic plotter.

  79. 79.

    Ruckus

    @Brachiator:

    The only issue SFB is smart at is knowing that he actually is SFB. His entire life since he was a teen has been one of grandstanding financial and personal failure. I think he strikes a cord with many who have similar personalities but not the money to prove it in the same way.

  80. 80.

    Dan B

    On another note, FOX is blaming Pete for the Philadelphia bridge collapse since he’s f9cusing on equity and ignoring “crumbling bridges”*.

    * The bridge was ten years old.

  82. 82.

    smith

    @Dan B: Well, a lot of Goobers apparently blame Obama for Katrina, so they’re just exercising their world-renowned malleable sense of time.

  84. 84.

    narya

    @Matt McIrvin: My understanding (based on the Popehat School of Law) is that she could (a) dismiss the charges outright, or (b) AFTER the jury is empaneled but before there’s an actual trial, do the Rule 29 thing.

    I think it’s entirely possible she could/would do either, but I also think that (a) Jack has thought this through and has several backup plans and (b) he/DOJ/etc. still should do what is right, i.e., file THESE charges, in Florida.

  85. 85.

    Ruckus

    @Matt McIrvin:

    She has 20-25 yrs left on the bench. She has the least seniority on the 11th circuit, and isn’t this is the preliminary hearing, in which the court sets the conditions of the trial and sees if it needs to go up the ladder, and she’s been massively read down on her previous SFB hearing by if not the entire rest of the 11th, most of it. Sure SFB makes her heart flutter, but she won’t last long if she follows that and she’d have to be a FOOL if she doesn’t treat this with the respect her job and future depends on. I’m not saying she’s not that fool, just that this is likely to be her last if she screws this up. Wanna bet that every member of the 11th district is going to be paying just a tad bit of attention?

  86. 86.

    Dan B

    @smith:  And “EQUITY!!!!!!” moar gehz and negroez!  Oh noes!!!  Makes us sick when they don’t stay in their place.

  87. 87.

    James E Powell

    @NotMax:

    Scuttlebutt is for Miami mayor Suarez to announce his bid for ’24 Republican prez nomination shortly.

    Isn’t he the crypto guy? Is he going to join RFK Jr?

  88. 88.

    cain

    @cmorenc: yeah, the problem is that the client – one TFG is not a rational actor in this case and could easily fuck over her own efforts.

  90. 90.

    cain

    @Matt McIrvin: I think she’s going to be in deep shit – if the evidence that was covered shows that America’s defense capabilities were sold to China and others – she pulls a rule 29 at that – and she’s going to be on a list.

  91. 91.

    Dan B

    @James E Powell:  He’s announcing as GOP so not RFK Jr. but might be similar.  I believe he’s a bodybuilder.  No clue on politics so time for research.

  92. 92.

    Ruckus

    @Redshift:

    I imagine there is a problem with court/judge shopping in the federal courts. It would make sense for them to clamp down on this unless there were much more than cursory reasons for changing circuits.

  96. 96.

    Dan B

    @James E Powell:   He’s the crypto mayor who wants to abolish taxes and fund Miami with bitcoin.  His politics seem moderate for GOP.  Voted for Gillum and didn’t vote for TFG.  Imagine him dissolving the IRS and running the Federal government on crypto.

  100. 100.

    Chris Johnson

    @waspuppet: That may have been back when he and his seemed more invincible.

    Hell, the Jan 6ers expected backup! They thought they were the spearhead and the troops would come pouring in. They did not think for a second that they were IT. They thought the world was hot to follow.

    They thought Trump would bail them out, too.

    People used to think Ukraine couldn’t beat Russia, too.

    Why would Cannon think Trump was able to back up promises or threats now? She has already given him likely the only chance he’ll get from her. I wouldn’t call it impossible but I think it’s unlikely she steps out of line twice. It’s not like it’s even the only indictment! This ain’t even the Georgia thing, and there’s something brewing in Texas, and Putin is blowing up dams and can’t help.

    I don’t think Cannon is a guarantee of brazen court-rigging in Trump’s favor. It might be more likely for her to flip and do the opposite, or recuse, or something.

  102. 102.

    Matt McIrvin

    @O. Felix Culpa: “Right! Next! To the dog! Faced! Boy!”

    youtu.be/rznuB1mWDnE?t=44

    (Spock is less inhibited than usual because he’s being mind-controlled by psychic plant spores; Kirk has discovered that strong emotional reactions will break the control, so he’s trying to piss off Spock as much as he can…)

  103. 103.

    Scout211

    Governor Pritzger signed a law making book banning illegal in Illinois. This is good news.  Other states need to follow Illinois’ lead.

    Illinois outlaws book bans in schools and public libraries

    Illinois became the first state in the nation to prohibit book bans Monday, Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced, as states across the country continue to challenge and axe literature from public schools and libraries.

    Pritzker signed a bill into law on Monday to prohibit public schools and libraries from banning books, saying it’s the only one of its kind in the country.

    “Book bans are about censorship, marginalizing people, marginalizing ideas and facts. Regimes banned books, not democracies,” Pritzker, a Democrat, said at a bill signing ceremony at a Chicago library. “We refuse to let a vitriolic strain of White nationalism coursing through our country determine whose histories are told, not in Illinois.”

    The measure, which takes effect January 1, says public libraries must adopt the American Library Association’s Library Bill of Rights or their own statement prohibiting book banning to be eligible for state money.

    The association’s Library Bill of Rights states that reading materials “should not be proscribed or removed because of partisan or doctrinal disapproval” or “excluded because of the origin, background, or views of those contributing to their creation.”

  105. 105.

    Jackie

    Apparently Judge Aileen Cannon will not preside over TIFG’s arraignment.

    She’ll still be the judge, but not for tomorrow, per MSNBC.

  106. 106.

    The Moar You Know

    You panicky fuckers won’t be satisfied until we’re all matching in orderly lines into the TrumpCamps.

    I don’t think he gets to walk away from this unscathed.  Just not seeing that as a possibility.

  110. 110.

    bbleh

    @Ruckus: and especially the leaders.  Groups like the Proud Boys, and incidents like 1/6, require leadership.  Take the leaders out of circulation and things fall apart.  Plus, they’re now known, so if/when things start to bubble again, their names will get attention very quickly.

  113. 113.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Jackie: ​
      People should not read anything into this, either positive or negative. It’s not at all unusual for a magistrate judge to preside over these proceedings.

  114. 114.

    Lyrebird

    @cain: ​
     she pulls a rule 29 at that – and she’s going to be on a list.

    I think that as well. Also, whether she is faking or doing whatever her best is to be fair, she will have to listen to the evidence produced by Jack Smith and his team..
    if what
    @Litlebritdifrnt: ​
      pointed out isn’t enough to sway her opinion, maybe she will be “motivated” by the thought of being charged and cross examined by that team about conspiring to cover up the level of callous trashing of our nation’s security and possibly putting service members’ lives at risk.

  116. 116.

    Hungry Joe

    I’ve been on two juries in the last few years, and both times I was impressed by how seriously all my fellow jurors took their responsibility.* Being in a courtroom as a sworn juror is sobering, humbling; you want desperately to do a good job, to be as fair as possible. I’m not saying there can’t be an unredeemable, intransigent rogue MAGA loon in there, to throw a spinner into the legal works, but it’s not as likely as you might think.

    * Even though one of the cases was so lightweight and silly as to be near-ludicrous.

  117. 117.

    frosty

    @eclare: I had a male teacher in 4th grade and it was awesome, although nothing like your experience. Every Friday morning we had a math test and every Friday afternoon we went outside to play sports.

  118. 118.

    jonas

    @Litlebritdifrnt: Normally I’d agree with this, but when it comes to MAGAts, shamelessness seems to be their superpower. Some of them probably consider it a badge of honor to be overturned by some “woke, ultra-swampy” appeals court just to demonstrate their bona fides.

  119. 119.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Betty Cracker: Ben Meiseles at the LegalAF podcast also believes that 11 Circuit has the power and precedent to make her recuse based on US vs. Martin and the fact that they have already overruled her twice for making incorrect rulings on jurisdiction, on this very case!  It may be a conservative circuit but these judges still can be vary vain about the public perception of their circuit.  We’ll see, but the fact that several attorneys are hopeful is a good sign.

  120. 120.

    jonas

    @Ruckus: I think he strikes a cord with many who have similar personalities but not the money to prove it in the same way.

    Well put. A lot of us here look at Trump’s antics and think “The balls on this guy!!” with a good dose of snark and irony. A lot of his supporters look at him and think “Wow! The balls on this guy!” but, like, in a good way. How one comes to think like that, I’m not sure, but you’re right — there’s enough of them out there.

  121. 121.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Jackie: ​
      There would be no opportunity for any monkey wrenches tomorrow in any case. It’s all formalities.

  122. 122.

    jonas

    @Hungry Joe: I may be misremembering, but wasn’t one of the jurors in the E. Jean Caroll case a confessed Trumper? Still voted to convict find liable in the end, though, so who knows? Maybe duty and honor still matter to some…

    ETA — “convict” is criminal trial language. Fixed for clarity.

  123. 123.

    smith

    @UncleEbeneezer: It may be a conservative circuit but these judges still can be vary vain about the public perception of their circuit.

    I’m wondering if a few of these judges might take the opportunity to have a quiet chat with Cannon. Just a little private airing of views.

  126. 126.

    Geminid

    @jonas: I think the juror in question voted for Trump, but I don’t consider everyone who voted for Trump as a “Trumper.” The ones I know who voted for Trump were not at all enthusiastic about him, but they wanted to keep the “radical” Democrat out of power. They were negatively polarized.

  141. 141.

    El Muneco

    @Layer8Problem: “I have to say I never got the point of the Kobayashi Maru exercise”

    The Kobayashi Maru Test is a test of character.

    One of the ways to fail the Kobayashi Maru test is to get caught telling anyone about it after you’ve taken it.

  142. 142.

    Ruckus

    @jonas:

    I’ve known people with the same mental disability that SFB has, but they didn’t have his money to practice their pathetic bullshit with. Near as much anyway. Fun to be around – NOT. I’d imagine that if you think money is the most important thing in the world and you deserve a lot of it because of your, well, bullshit, but your actual access to money is based upon you actually “earning it” and you started $1.95, rather than $400 million, you are never going to be as noticed as SFB. That doesn’t mean your diseased brain is going to fit in, not be noticed, not be repelled. But SFB started with a lot, and with his wit, intelligence, charm and well, bullshit, turned it in a hell of a lot less than if he’s just put it in a reasonable rich shit’s bank. He deserves something for his cluelessness, assholiness, ignorance, and pompous arrogance. It isn’t anything positive, maybe a room, small, with bars for a door and a lot of good time neighbors. I’m wishing that he gets everything he deserves, including that room.

  143. 143.

    Kayla Rudbek

    Public service announcement: Apple Music has a bunch of R&B albums on sale for $4.99 right now. I managed to find some good instrumental ones (and I am not sure where the line falls between R&B and jazz).

  145. 145.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Omnes Omnibus: in fact, it would highly unusual for anyone other than the magistrate to handle the arraignment. That’s the way the federal court system is set up these days.  “These days” going back decades.

  146. 146.

    Matt McIrvin

    @The Moar You Know: I am struck by Popehat’s implication that Trump is nearly certain to walk unscathed and stands a good chance to come out ahead politically, and is arguing that prosecuting him is still the right thing to do in spite of all that.

  148. 148.

    Tony G

    @Old Man Shadow: That’s right.  On average about 100 people are killed by guns every single day in this shit-hole of a country.  Unless these fascist cowards plan to kill a lot more than that in support of their cult leader, it will be just more deaths in a nation full of deaths.  In other words: fuck these people.  The vast majority of Trump cult members are cowards who are too out-of-shape and lazy to walk further than the distance from their couch to the refrigerator.  Fuck them.

  151. 151.

    Kelly

    @Tony G: The vast majority of Trump cult members are cowards who are too out-of-shape and lazy to walk further than the distance from their couch to the refrigerator.

    The Trumpy’s around here have to be strong enuff to clamber into their ridiculous lifted pickups.

  152. 152.

    moonbat

    Don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this up-thread or not, but Trump’s inability to secure legal counsel sort of argues against this “Loose Cannon will definitely let him off the hook” argument. If that were the case a venal defense lawyer would definitely jump on that and build a (questionable) reputation in the right-wing-o-sphere as the “person who got Trump acquitted” you’d think.

    Is Alan Dershowitz answering his phone?

  153. 153.

    Narya

    @Matt McIrvin: I wouldn’t say popehat is that certain he’ll walk—he noted that, if he were still an AUSA and this were anyone else, he would be delighted to prosecute the case—he’s just aware that it has so many uncertainties. And he believes—and I agree—that the right thing to do is to make the best possible case rather than changing how you prosecute etc.

  154. 154.

    Old School

    @moonbat:

    Is Alan Dershowitz answering his phone?

    Seems like he’s standing by.

    Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz warned of the “dangerous” consequences posed by the federal charges launched against former President Donald Trump, arguing the indictment’s “weak” appearance does not meet historic precedent.

    “It has to be at least as strong as the case against Richard Nixon, which we will remember led not to Democrats to demand his resignation, but Republicans, his own colleagues came to him and said, this case is so strong that we can’t support you,” Dershowitz said Friday on “Mornings with Maria.”

    “I haven’t seen any suggestion that Republicans agree with this indictment,” the professor continued.

  155. 155.

    Jackie

    From the WaPo; Trump is still scrambling to find FL lawyers:

    “….A key question on Tuesday is how soon each side wants to go to trial, and what schedule Judge Aileen M. Cannon, the federal judge in Florida who has been initially assigned to oversee the criminal case against Trump, sets both for a trial and pretrial matters.”

    ”Trump’s lawyers have plenty of options if they want to slow matters down.”

    “White-collar defendants routinely seek to dismiss an indictment, specific charges or counts claiming prosecutorial misconduct. The defense also can seek to knock out illegally seized evidence or improper testimony.”

    “Another complex question could be the defense’s demand to see classified evidence seized in the case, and the lengthy process for the government to clear versions of such evidence for public release or prepare nonclassified summaries.”

    “Trump’s defense has already signaled they will probably also challenge the decision by U.S. District Court Judge Beryl A. Howell to allow prosecutors access to Corcoran’s notes, another step that could slow the case’s progress.”

    ““I would imagine we will see a motion to dismiss the indictment based on the taint created by the presentation of these notes to the grand jury,” former Trump impeachment attorney David I. Schoen said. The attorney-client privilege and a lawyer’s mental impressions concerning privileged matters and strategy are among the most carefully safeguarded principles in the legal system.”

    Gift article wapo.st/3qz62gV

  156. 156.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I am struck by Popehat’s implication that Trump is nearly certain to walk unscathed and stands a good chance to come out ahead politically, and is arguing that prosecuting him is still the right thing to do in spite of all that.

    I used to read and like his twitter feed but thought his take here was a bunch a mealy mouth equivocating. I am not an attorney (but I played one for a couple of decades) and have read so many attorneys’ opinions on this and other Trump matters that I’m back to whatever happens. Frankly, I’m still a bit scarred from the Bobby 3 Sticks investigation.

  158. 158.

    Burnspbesq

    I imagine that if Trump moves to suppress Corcoran’s notes and testimony, one of the things the government will argue is that the D.C. Circuit ruling is “law of the case” which Cannon cannot disturb. Not a slam dunk, but a pretty strong argument.

    law.cornell.edu/wex/law_of_the_case

  161. 161.

    NotMax

    @Burnspbesq

    Can’t pin it down at the moment but saw someplace that Stanley Woodward, Nauta’s (current) attorney of record is being paid for by a PAC affiliated with guess who.

  163. 163.

    yellowdog

    @Litlebritdifrnt: Why would she be afraid of the Appeals Court? She has promises of wealth and power if she helps Trump. And death threats if she doesn’t. Being embarrassed isn’t  in the same league of deterrents.

  165. 165.

    Chris Johnson

    @yellowdog: The problem there is that Trump doesn’t wield the power he used to wield, and may not have nearly the wealth he seemed to have, and his track record of supporting people who put their asses on the line for him is VERY VERY VERY POOR.

    So basically you have to be a really special kind of stupid to buy into such implications, and that holds both for jackals in a commentariat, and for highly-placed supporters of his cause.

    Cannon has no reason to believe any promises OR threats Trumpworld could make, are legit.

  166. 166.

    nuncle unknown

    @Litlebritdifrnt: I think this would be so if Cannon were in it for her career and position as a district court judge, and for the respect of her peers.

    I think she’s in it for a seat on SCOTUS. I cannot imagine she was clueless as to what the reaction to her asinine rulings wrt Trump would be.

    i don’t think she’s stupid or incompetent, just amoral and ruthlessly ambitious. She’s got her eyes on the prize.

    I hope I am wrong.

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