Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Celebrate the fucking wins.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 474: Ukrainian MILDEC!

War for Ukraine Day 474: Ukrainian MILDEC!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Just a quick housekeeping note: my schedule this week is going to be weird. From tomorrow through Sunday evening. I’m going for Great Dane therapy, so that should tell the attentive Balloon Juice reader what is going on. Hopefully I will not have to wear Jasper as a hat on the drive from the airport. So the updates will go up, but I’ll be two time zones behind usual and they may be briefer than usual. Depending on how many Great Danes and cats and ducks are sitting on me at any given time…

Military deception, MILDEC, is defined in Joint Publication 3-13.4/Military Deception as:

… actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary military, paramilitary, or violent extremist organization decision makers, thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the friendly mission.

Here’s a great example:

I’ve also seen some references to the static imagery of the Ukrainian armor – the Leopards and the Bradleys – that hit the mines and were then hit by fire from a Russian attack helicopter have been digitally altered by the Russians as part of their anti-Ukrainian propaganda efforts. The references range from the images being photoshopped to make the damage look worse than it is to being completely AI generated. I haven’t seen anything or anyone I consider really reliable, but if they were altered I’d go with the former over the latter.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

The strength of our warriors yields results, and I thank everyone who is now in combat for this – address by the President of Ukraine

12 June 2023 – 22:21

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I held a meeting of the Staff today. The key reports were from the commanders of the operational directions that are the most important and hottest – Khortytsia and Tavria.

The battles are fierce, but we are moving forward, and this is very important. The enemy’s losses are exactly what we need. Although the weather is unfavorable these days – the rains make our task more difficult – the strength of our warriors still yields results, and I thank everyone who is in combat now, everyone who supports our combat brigades in the relevant areas.

Generals Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi reported today on the successes we have already achieved, on the points of the front where we need reinforcement, and on the actions that can break more Russian positions.

Thank you to our guys for every Ukrainian flag that is now returning to its rightful place in the villages of the newly de-occupied territory! Thank you also for the significant replenishment of our exchange fund!

There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief on the general situation, and from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine on stabilization measures in the de-occupied territory. We are working very actively to supply the necessary weapons and ammunition. There was also an intelligence report on the enemy’s options. We are maintaining and strengthening our operational dominance.

I am particularly grateful for Bakhmut as we are increasing our control in this area.

Today’s meeting also included a final report on the readiness and non-readiness of shelters across the country, in major cities and in Kyiv. Ministers Klymenko, Kamyshin and Kubrakov reported. The results are disappointing, to say the least. On Friday, relevant draft decisions will be prepared – both on those responsible and on ensuring an adequate level of protection for our people in all Ukrainian cities.

I also held several meetings on our international activities. This week, as always, will be very meaningful. First, we are preparing new weapons support from our partners for our warriors. Second, we are preparing to involve more global actors in the implementation of the Peace Formula. Third, we are working to make the Vilnius Summit truly meaningful.

I’ll let you know every detail.

And one more decision worth mentioning. The title of Hero of Ukraine has been posthumously awarded to Lieutenant Colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Bohach. For extraordinary personal bravery, for repeatedly detaining and eliminating enemy saboteurs. For the defense of Mariupol and for such heroism and self-sacrifice, which leave no other option for Ukraine and Ukrainians but victory.

Glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine!

Thank you to each and every one who is now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions! We are moving forward step by step!

We believe in victory. It will come!

Glory to Ukraine!

More US defense aid is set to be announced tomorrow:

Avdiivka:

Zaporizhzhia:

Melitopol:

Beryslav:

Here is a thread detailing what is going on in the Russian occupied flooded areas. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App:

1. 20-day lockdown, they are not allowed to leave or enter the cities. Volunteers who have aid are unsuccessfully trying to break into that area. 
2. Dry-land areas are blocked with checkpoints (10-20% of the city) at which russian occupiers simply rob people, tear up Ukrainian documents, break into the houses that have not yet been robbed. They tell to the locals, “We’ll be saved but you will die here.” 
3. People are not allowed to leave the town without a Russian passport. Most people don’t have one.
4. On the first day, many people escaped in their underwear and had no clothes. 
5. Locals try to help each other, rescue animals, collect all the food and medicine left in the city. Important to note – after the dam was blown up, the Russian military went around Oleshky and confiscated people’s metal or plastic boats with engines. 
6. The Russians disinformed ppl claiming that the water would stop in a few hours and there was no need to evacuate, many people drowned particularly due to this disinfo. 
7. Hola Prystan was flooded on the second day, not on the first, when people already thought that the water had stopped. 
8. There are recorded cases of the Russians shooting those who tried to evacuate. Soldiers on boats patrol the city, ignoring people and animals who are drowning or sitting on the roofs of houses. 
9. Corpses of people, animals, equipment, and Russian soldiers themselves are floating around the houses. The Russians have set up ambushes, they promise to bring another thousand soldiers into the city in the next few days for “filtration.” 
10. The Russians also did not inform about the dam explosions. The locals learned the news thanks to Ukrainian TV and the Internet. 

These people are frightened, not ready to talk on camera and share their contacts, so please don’t message me about them. However, we managed to voice-record a few testimonies which will be published on @ukrainer_en anonymously

What is this, if not genocide?
trnsl: @YuliaTymosha 

The Ukrainians appear to have killed another Russian general:

Here’s a machine translation from the Russian Telegram channel:

The war takes the best

Heavy fighting all yesterday (June 12) went on almost along the entire line of military contact of the Vostok grouping, especially on the so-called. Vremevsky ledge. The situation is difficult in the defense zone of the 60th and 37th motorized rifle brigades.

As a result of an enemy missile attack, Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed.

A native of the Airborne Forces, Goryachev served as a soldier in the Kirovabad airborne division, after the RVVDKU he commanded a reconnaissance company, and then a paratrooper battalion in the 76th division, was the chief of staff of the 108th regiment. In the future, he led our contingent in Transnistria, commanded the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 201st military base in Tajikistan, and a training center in Khabarovsk. Having joined the SVO as the commander of the 5th separate tank brigade, he “grew up” to the deputy commander of the 35th OA (with the rank of major general), was appointed chief of staff of the army.

According to representatives of the command of the United Forces (s), the army today lost one of the brightest and most effective military leaders, who combined the highest professionalism with personal courage.

Combat friends express their condolences to the families and friends of the deceased.

PS Unfortunately, it was not possible to find a photograph of the hero in a general’s uniform, perhaps one does not exist, in the war there is no time for a photo.

Moscow:

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

A drunk man that looks like Putin just can’t understand what is the point of hitting residential areas in Russia. Similarly, what is the point of placing troops in the residential areas? Why mass murder and loot in a foreign country? Why blow up Kakhovka Dam? What is the point of invading at all when you dealt hundreds of times more damage than what you claim has caused the invasion?

More from yesterday’s prisoner exchange:

 

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

Commander of the Russian Volunteer Cops [RDK] Denis Nikitin was present at the prisoner of war exchange, where every Russian soldier was offered the option to join the RDK. Among them, was Vladislav Izmailov who refused to return to Russia and expressed a desire to join the ranks of RDK. Izmailov was not from the Russian military but was instead a PMC Wagner member who was freed from a Samara prison to serve in the PMC and was later captured in November last year. Evgeniy Prigozhin reacted by confirming the identity of the Russian and promised to “find and kill” him: “Actually, Vladislav Izmailov arrived to the PMC Wagner from a Samara colony, and in November he was captured. Vladislav Izmailov is a traitor, and I’m sure he will receive a worthy punishment according to all traditions of PMC Wagner. I hope we will find and kill him in a fair fight.” It appears no one else from the Russian group of P.O.W.s wished to stay or join the RDK showing that Izmailov likely has a good reason to do so.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new video from Patron’s official TikTok, but we’re back to the embedding problem. So click across if you want to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

54Comments

  1. 1.

    Manyakitty

    Have fun out west!

    Edit: “trapped under a kitty (or other critter as appropriate)” is a valid excuse for most things in these parts.

  2. 2.

    O. Felix Culpa

    I can’t imagine how exhausting this must be for Zelenskyy. For other Ukrainians too, of course, especially those on the front, but he has to keep things moving forward domestically and internationally and constantly present a positive face to the public. He’s doing amazing work with the awful job fate has dealt him.

  4. 4.

    lee

    It looks like Russia is using barrier troops as they did in WW2. Do you think this is a recent development in the war or that we finally have video confirmation of what a lot of folks suspected?

    This morning I mentioned this in yesterday’s thread:
    I watched a video clip on Telegram this morning capture by what I would assume is a UA drone.

    According to the caption it was Russian soldiers fleeing the front line getting shot/killed by the line behind them.

    It was definitely 6 soldiers fleeing towards ‘friendlies’ and those ‘friendlies’ then immediately shooting those same soldiers.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    The Russians disinformed ppl claiming that the water would stop in a few hours and there was no need to evacuate, many people drowned particularly due to this disinfo.

    There truly is no bottom with these psychos. God almighty.

    Each time I see the синьо-жовтий прапор go up in another reclaimed village, it simultaneously does my heart good, but also breaks it, knowing how many lives were stolen or irreparably damaged and how many homes have been destroyed and belongings lost to get there.

    Thank you as always, Adam. Have…fun? I guess?

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose

    @O. Felix Culpa: Agree. I have thought this from the beginning. Obviously, he’s not out there on the actual frontlines, but he knows he has had a target on his back the whole time, and that his wife and children do, as well. The emotional exhaustion of that, plus having to be the public face of all of this, all these meetings and strategizing, all the speeches, all the phone calls, being the one to communicate with not just Ukrainians but the whole world, and on top of that being called a fucking Nazi (as a Jew!!) and a liar and a puppet and whatever else…I know it’s been said a million times, but every day he continues to prove that even though it might not have seemed so before the full-scale war began, he was and is the exact right man for the job.

  9. 9.

    Ruviana

    Wow! I actually went back to see who wrote this. Why is TaMara writing about Ukraine, I thought.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    @WaterGirl:

    Ukrainians in front, Ruzzians and Chechens in the back.

    So you flee from and towards and then back again. Best to just surrender.

  15. 15.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: I don’t understand why the West doesn’t *at least* create a deterministic schedule of punishment for Russia,  to deter it from committing war crimes.  Something like:

    For each war crime (greater than some threshold) you commit, $50B will be immediately transferred from your central bank account with the Fed, to Ukraine.

    I mean, how hard is that?  And it gives Russia all the …. what’s what word (from Murc’s Law)?  *Agency*.  Yeah, it gives Russia all the agency.

    At least, the news that the US is going to backfill Stryker and Bradley units …. that’s great to hear.  Ukraine needs to know, needs to *know*, to *KNOW* that these heavy armor units aren’t irreplaceable — that we’ll fucking replace them no problemo — so that they can focus on what truly is irreplaceable: the soldiers manning those units.

  17. 17.

    West of the Rockies

    OT, Adam, but Wilt Chamberlain reportedly used to walk Central Park at midnight with his pair of Great Danes just to see if anyone would ever tried to mug him.  (No takers.)

    I know you’re not 7’1″, but I suspect you are an imposing figure with your hounds.

    As ever, thanks for your highly valuable reports.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: More Strykers/Bradleys should have been given to Ukraine in the 1st place to serve as reserve, rather than piecemeal. The US has plenty of both.

  19. 19.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: 100% agreed.  The more equipment we give Ukraine (and the more equipment we give that is stacked-up in Poland, Czechia, etc) the more signaling we give to Russia that, “no, Boris, you ain’t fuckin’ gonna win this, even if you fuckin’ wait a long goddamn time, you fucker”.

    Ugh.

  22. 22.

    Manyakitty

    I was just watching Fiddler on the Roof and had to shut it off after the Russian/Cossack dance scene. Way too much context on too many levels right now. 💔

  24. 24.

    Jay

    🇺🇦Yaroslava Rudenko sings with women who defended their village Blystavytsia. Iryshka has supernatural abilities and sent a spell on the orcs so they lost their male strength. Nadiya downed an enemy drone with a jar of cucumbers. Ukrainian women are a force!📷 pic.twitter.com/rLeCgktwkP— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) June 12, 2023

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: Again, I note that the Russians seem to be *incapable* of producing even this level of propaganda.  I mean …. *smdh*.  The Soviets were better at this, FFS.

  28. 28.

    NutmegAgain

    @Adam L Silverman: And yet your Lab mixes probably eat more than any of my Newfies, who have less bone than the Danes, but still clock in between 110 – 140 lbs on average. Like Danes, it’s a good thing they are very agreeable doggos

     

    eta, I am running out of nasty things to think and say about Russians. I like the idea of Ukrainian witches.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    they can’t even fake “provocations”,

    they drowned a fucking zoo,

    they rape, murder and steal,

    they kill peoples pets,

    Good propaganda has to touch the heart, and Ruzzian’s don’t have any, other than the ones they steal from organ donor banks,…

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NutmegAgain: Two cups of food a day with pumpkin purée. Plus frozen blueberries with their breakfasts as I make my breakfast smoothies. Plus whatever else they can mooch like carrots or apple.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Casey used to love the “Bunny Love” baby carrots,

    Until we moved to the hills and I grew beds of Nante’s carrots, to put away in the root cellar.

    Suddenly, store bought carrots weren’t good enough.

    Digger loved mango. He would start whining and begging the minute the knife went in.

  33. 33.

    NutmegAgain

    @Jay:

    I totally get the carrot choosiness. The foster I have now is skinny as heck, and he is also one fussy bugger. Part of my foster job is nursing through whatever calamity life has brought these dogs, so with this guy I am spoiling him to try and get some pounds on.

    @Adam L Silverman: So many dogs love fruit! Although my favorite story was coming home to find my big guy standing on the kitchen island sampling each of the clementines in a bowl, and daintily spitting them, otherwise whole, on the floor… Dogs make me laugh. I usually feed pumpkin for digestive disorders. Lately, I’m breaking into the fish buffet to tempt a very skinny foster fellow (mackerel, sardines, tuna, salmon), mixed with the regular stuff.

  34. 34.

    Anoniminous

    @lee:

    We know the Russian Army isn’t worth a damn so it could be simple incompetence by the Russians.  They are in a combat situation, see armed people running towards them they open fire.

  35. 35.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anoniminous: Your scenario would be the best for UA (and us), yes?  That they’re so damn incompetent they can’t even manage I(dentification)F(riend  or)F(oe) ?  I’d love to believe it.  But I fear it’s just “barrier troops” as @lee: suggests.

    So it goes.  Either way, the best option for these RU soldiers is *surrender*.   Three hots and a cot.  Probably better food than they’ve eaten in years, too.

  36. 36.

    Carlo Graziani

    Astronomical note: The window for intensive night ops is opening. Tonight, Sunset at about 8:30 PM, Civil Twilight ends around 9:08 PM. Moonrise at 1:42 AM, 25% Illumination, Civil Twilight again around 3:40AM, Sunrise around 4:20 AM. The time between CT and Moonrise is dark time, 4 1/2 hrs tonight.

    Going forwards, Sunset and CT aren’t going to change much (all such change slows way down near the Solstice) so the key factor becomes Moonrise and lunar illumination. Moonrise rapidly recedes into morning with the coming Full Moon (June 18), and illumination also drops fast. By June 15, Moonrise is at 2:20 AM, illumination 9%, so CT-Moonrise is a little over 5 hrs, and the Moon isn’t bringing much light. By the 18th, Full Moon implies that dark ops time is CT-to-CT, 9:10 PM to 3:37 AM, meaning 6 1/2 hrs. And of course, lunar illumination will be essentially zero.

    As reported, NATO has supplied first-rate night vision gear in large quantities to the UA. Whereas the Russians can barely supply uniforms, food, and ammo to their troops, so wide deployment of night imaging gear is not a thing for them. This creates the potential for a turkey shoot somewhere. I still like Bakhmut for this.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Incompetence.  Barrier Troops.  Whatever.  I’m All In on Russian Army fighters* shooting Russian Army fighters.

    * I refuse to call that rabble “soldiers”

  39. 39.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anoniminous: If they ain’t gonna surrender, that’s definitely the best outcome.  They can kill each other, let God sort ’em out.  But truthfully, I’d rather they surrender in droves.

    Ukraine needs a massive prisoner exchange fund.  The more the better.  The more the better.

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: Excellent use of regular expressions, O Fellow sed-nerd.

    For the non-nerds, please read “New Moon” where early-onset Alzheimers caused me to write “Full Moon.”

  44. 44.

    Jerzy Russian

    @Gin & Tonic:    Certainly (optical) astronomers talk about “dark time”, but this is the first I have heard of it being discussed in military matters.   As a practical matter, I wonder how much it matters given all of the other things to keep track of and to worry about.

  45. 45.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    NAFO has funded a ton of drones, (even the naval ones), helmets, body armor, first aid supplies, and yes, night vision gear. Plus blankets, uniforms, sleeping bags, starlinks, vehicles, toothpaste, Motorola radio’s etc.

    There is a fund raiser every day.

    The Ukrainian Military is not in awash with gear that Western Militaries take for granted.

  49. 49.

    Alison Rose

    I’m sure Adam will cover this tomorrow, but fuck russia all to hell:

    Several Russian missiles have hit Kryvyi Rih this night. One of them hit a 5-story residential building. It was around 3 am. People were in their beds sleeping.

    And from Zelenskyy:

    More terrorist missiles, Russian killers continue their war against residential buildings, ordinary cities and people. Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded. The rescue operation in Kryvyi Rih continues. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones! Terrorists will never be forgiven, and they will be held accountable for every missile they launch.

    His hometown.

  51. 51.

    Manyakitty

    @Origuy: indeed. That alone added more layers than I was prepared to deal with. “Fiddler” takes me to some dark places lately.

  52. 52.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @Jay: Speaking of strong Ukrainian women, ABC Australia did a brief feature on Witch, everyone’s favourite Ukrainian female fighter. Did you know she used to be a lawyer? Now she’s earning rank fighting around Bakhmut.

  53. 53.

    Bill Arnold

    Not sure I could handle a war zone. West Point is doing artillery practice roughly 15 miles away and it’s hard to maintain a proper flow state without shooter’s ear protectors.  (David Clark, big and green.)

    Appreciating the discussion of the new moon. Tactical significance is influenced by light pollution levels.
    Interactive Light-Pollution Map
    Moon was considered more important in times with less artificial light, including with lunar deities, e.g. Nanna/Sin/Suen, Mesopotamian moon god (“He whose heart cannot be read”/”unfathomable”)

  54. 54.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Bill Arnold: That light pollution map is very cool. One caveat is that the data appears to be from 2016. It’s probably quite out of date, given war conditions. For example Bakhmut (shown as “Artemovsk”, the Soviet-era name) is a fairly bright spot on the map, but it is doubtless a darkish-sky site today.

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