America Still Stands.
I took Merrick Garland at his word when he announced, but now we can see that it’s real.

No one is above the law has actual meaning again.
Please let this be the death knell of Look Forward, Not Back.
This really is a great day for the United States of America and the rule of law.
Regardless of what Cannon does or doesn’t do today, this is only the beginning. For the first time in his life, Donald Trump may be beginning to understand the concept of consequences. Tough lesson to learn when you are 77. No sympathy!
No one is above the law. Not even the President.
Open thread.
WaterGirl
I have no idea what might be in the works for this YouTube event, could be great, could be 3 hours of blah-blah-blah blather. But it’s possible that Alison Gill (Mueller She Wrote) is doing counter-programming from the blather of talking heads on TV, so I will add this here in case anyone wants to check it out.
I wonder if she might have Andrew McCabe and Pete S or other names we might know, so I will have it on in the background as I work. If it’s great, I’ll add it to the post itself.
eclare
Happy Birthday! 🥳
AxelFoley
Second!I mean, third !Let’s get this party started
Omnes Omnibus
@eclare: It’s WaterGirl’s birthday?
Happy birthday, WaterGirl!
Baud
🎁🎈🍰🌈🎵🎶 to the best blogmistresss in the land.
Baud
Also, Cannon won’t even be there today. We can savor.
Josie
Wishing you a very happy birthday, WaterGirl, in more ways than one. Thanks for keeping us going.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes, and I am getting a lovely gift in the form of an arraignment!
Speaking of which, is that at 2 or 3 pm eastern?
WaterGirl
@Baud: I have been swamped with work. Why won’t cannon be there?
HinTN
@WaterGirl: The Magistrate handles the arraignment today. The trial judge, Cannon, presides over the actual trial
ETA – Once the accused is assigned a judge for trial, maybe today (?), Cannon could recuse.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: A magistrate judge is doing it. No one should read anything into this. It is pretty standard practice.
brendancalling
Happy birthday!
Scout211
Mr. Smith goes to
WashingtonMiami. 😉Since we can’t watch it live (Booo!) I will catch up with all the media reports this afternoon (it starts at noon here on the left coast).
After that, I will read the screeds that Trump posts on his social media screed-fest place.
🍰🍿
SteveinPHX
Happy B’day! Hope u have a million more!
OzarkHillbilly
@WaterGirl: You’re a B-Day girl? You have my sympathies.
Scout211
Happy Birthday, WaterGirl!
For you, it will be birthday cake today!
🎂
Omnes Omnibus
@HinTN: Just a note: The job title is magistrate judge not magistrate at the federal level. The magistrate judges get a bit snippy about it.
cope
Happy natal day, WG. Enjoy the festivities.
catclub
All I see is Terry Waite after he was released from captivity. The beard and the hollow cheeks.
frosty
Happy Bday WG! Thanks for sharing your gift today with all of us.
Ken
I suppose there’s no chance of a guilty plea.
I mean, unless someone convinced TFG it would be the best way to raise funds.
geg6
Happiest of birthdays to you, WG! What a day!
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I’m seeing discussion elsewhere that the trial could happen by November of this year? Who would decide that and when? Certainly not Cannon.
Confession: My reliable source is a random comment on Wonkette, from someone who says they heard it on MSNBC. So clearly it’s admissible as evidence.
Maxim
Happy birthday, WG, and thank you for everything you do to keep BJ going.
Do we know whether DJT has a defense lawyer yet? The actual arraignment may have to be postponed if he doesn’t.
Betty Cracker
I have no idea if there will be large-scale demonstrations or possibly even violence in the streets near the courthouse or if it will be a low-energy affair like Trump’s Manhattan arraignment. It’s Florida and there are lots of guns and kooks, so who knows.
But Josh Marshall published a take on his editor’s blog called “The End of Bundy Clan Rules” in which he speculates that the massive federal effort to hold the violent J6 creeps accountable may have a deterrent effect on anyone who wants to get salty today. That’s probably true.
As Marshall acknowledges, the Bundy clan standoffs were complex, and the feds at the time focused on defusing the situations without violence, which is usually the right thing to do. But that approach also seems to have sent a message that right-wing actors could get away with breaking the law. The J6 prosecutions may have dispelled their sense of impunity.
Accountability — it’s a good thing for everybody!
Manyakitty
Happy birthday to you! Hope it’s the best one yet! 🎁🎂🎉🎈
twbrandt
@catclub: Smith is a triathlete, so no doubt seriously lean and in shape.
geg6
@catclub:
OMG, you’re right! It’s been driving me crazy trying to figure out who he reminded me of and as soon as I saw your comment, the light bulb went off.
Jackie
Happy Birthday/Arraignment Day, WaterGirl! I have put out my flag in your honor and will leave it up for mine tomorrow – aka Flag Day and the USA Army’s birthday! 😊🇺🇸
UncleEbeneezer
It was always likely headed to this. Unless you hand waved away 1.) Garland’s reputation, 2.) his words, 3.) what we know about how DOJ proceeds, builds cases, does so in secret, 4.) the actions DOJ was taking from very early on, as it came out in court filings.
Was there a chance that there wouldn’t be enough evidence to indict? Sure that’s always a possibility (though I think in the documents case, it was VERY unlikely). But the continuing presumption that Garland/DOJ was just blowing smoke and was too scared/small-c conservative to investigate and bring charges against Trump, relied on a lot of bad faith assumptions about them.
RachelBakes
Happy Birthday WG! Thanks for everything you do.
And happy arraignment day to everyone else – tfg included.
danielx
Happy birth/arraignment day!
twbrandt
@UncleEbeneezer: what struck me is that most of Garland’s critics were not lawyers, while most lawyers, especially those who worked at the federal level as defense attorneys or AUSAs, defended him. I trusted the experts.
Baud
@Maxim:
He has lawyers who will be there for today’s events. The arraignment will go forward.
pieceofpeace
Happy Birthday – thanks for all you do here, WaterGirl.
You’re greatly appreciated.
Scout211
@Maxim: It was reported that for today’s arraignment, he will be represented by Todd Blanche and Christopher Kise.
James E Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
I remember when they changed the title. They got just a little more pompous.
kindness
It’s ironic that the people who were yelling ‘Lock her up!’ loudest now suggest that ex-presidents shouldn’t be investigated or charged with anything. Irony is probably not the best word to use here.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: It probably helped that Trump was arrogant enough to ignore repeated entreaties to return the documents and stupid enough to provide copious evidence of criminal intent!
James E Powell
@kindness:
You say ironic, I say typical.
Wapiti
@Maxim: Judge Cannon might decide she’s capable of being Trump’s lawyer as well as the judge in this case. (/kidding!)
EarthWindFire
Happy birthday, WG! Enjoy your live from Miami present!
Sure Lurkalot
Happiest of birthdays, WaterGirl, on this very happy day.
MobiusKlein
If a non-president was being arraigned for those charges, would that person be put in jail, pending trial?
Given the risk of other documents not returned, flight risk, seems like most folks would have to post a big $$$ to remain free.
Roger Moore
@UncleEbeneezer:
I think a lot of the complaints about Garland and Co were frustration speaking rather than any serious knowledge of law. People are worried and afraid about what Trump will do, and they see an indictment as the most likely way of stopping him. That worry and frustration makes them lash out when they don’t see anything happening. You can expect the same people to lash out when the cases against Trump aren’t moving fast enough for their tastes. I’m not saying this is OK, but we do need to understand the motivation is one of genuine concern about Trump rather than just reflexive bashing of the Democrats like so much of the criticism of Biden and his team.
JWR
The Mueller She Wrote video just started. Sounds good.
Redshift
Happy birthday, WG! 🎂🥳
Jackie
@Wapiti: BREAKING NEWS!!! I heard George Santos will be TIFG’s attorney!
Omnes Omnibus
@UncleEbeneezer: I think Garland’s reputation as an institutionalist came into play. People thought that he would tank the investigation to protect the illusion of institutional stability. In actually, I think that he is indeed an institutionalist, but that it lead him to try to actually uphold and protect the substance of the institution he represents.
Frankensteinbeck
Well, I glanced at the TV, and I see a couple of dozen protestors tops, both sides combined. Still 4 hours to go, of course, but I expected if there was going to be a real crowd they’d have gotten there early in a mass. It’s a ‘level of motivation’ thing.
eclare
@twbrandt:
I trusted the experts, too. Plus every i had to be dotted and t crossed. We only have one shot with these charges. As the saying goes, if you come at the king, you’d best not miss.
And to borrow another quote from The Wire, looks like Corcoran did take notes on a criminal fucking conspiracy. Wouldn’t have lasted a day in Stringer Bell’s world.
narya
Thanks, WG! and hippo birdie two ewes!
Frankensteinbeck
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think people were badly burned A) by Comey’s giant thumb on the scale against Hillary, ignoring all norms so he could put That Woman in her place, and B) they really, really, really overhyped Mueller, expecting him to do things he was never likely to do. So when he turned over a report to congress listing in detail why Trump should be indicted, Republicans sank that and the media went “You want us to READ!?!? EW! If he’s not arrested this must all be politics, right???” they felt like the system is universally broken.
Baud
If I ran the NYT, tomorrow’s headline would be “Our Long National Nightmare is Finally Over.”
Ghost of Joe Liebling’s Dog
@Scout211:
Given the sheer number of lawyers who have come and gone on TFG’s side, it’s started to feel a bit like Iron Chef to me. “Today’s lawyers challenge Special Iron Counsel Jack Smith in Legal Stadium, in a court battle built around a specific legal theme or charge! Tell me how you crimed, and I will tell you what you are!”
Maybe they could get Chairman Kaga to host.
Jackie
TIFG is now accusing “that THUG Jack Smith” of planting evidence at MAL!
TIFG seems to have disremembered Smith wasn’t assigned SC until Nov – THREE MONTHS after the Aug 8 documents retrieval.
Omnes Omnibus
@Frankensteinbeck: That fits with a lot of people on our side who expect that one election or one event will fix things. There is no one weird trick. It’s a constant fight, and we need to keep showing up every time.
Jeffro
#RepublicansInDisarray – far-right billionaire Charles Koch unleashes the Kraken on trump
mrmoshpotato
Understanding is debatable.
It’s definitely the first time Lady Justice will really punch the fat, orange, Kremlin-humping, fascist shitstain in his fat, orange, mobster face.
Jeffro
again?
=)
dm
@UncleEbeneezer: I think the criticisms of Garland stem more from Jan 6 than the documents case. Preet Bhrara and Joyce Vance peppered their comments on the Jan. 6 committee with comments along the lines of, “You know, it’s weird that we haven’t heard anything from any people Justice has been interviewing about this. Justice itself won’t say anything, of course, but you’d expect at least some targets of investigations would be complaining.”
Bharara and Vance are former Federal District Attorneys, and now how prosecutions happen, and how long it can take to build a case, but they seemed to think that “building a case” didn’t really start until the Jan. 6 committee focused attention on the Jan. 6 events.
cmorenc
When a defendant is pleading “not guilty” at an arraignment, the only committal substantive issue to be decided is whether the defendant will be released pre-trial, and under what conditions. Extremely unlikely the magistrate-judge will order Trump to be detained in custody pending trial, so the only issue will be conditions of pretrial release, such as: will he be required to surrender his passport? Will there be any restrictions placed on Trump’s comments about the case?
mrmoshpotato
@OzarkHillbilly:
I’m sure Henry is a master pastry chef, and we’ve just never been told.
SFAW
Because it’s your birthday, of course! I don’t know if there’s anything else going on today, but who cares?
Happy Birthday, young lady!
FastEdD
HBD WG! I got an Indictment Cake last week but I ate it already. Need Arraignment Tacos, because it is Tuesday. But you never can tell around here.
UncleEbeneezer
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s what I mean about his words. He was very clear about following the evidence wherever it leads, without fear or favor and nobody being above the law. He seems to sincerely believe that that is how you protect and strengthen the institution. Not by doing whatever is most convenient or politically popular. That is part of his reputation and character that was reported by colleagues of his, even before he became AG. One had to assume they were lying or that he’d radically change once in power, in order to believe he was going to knee-cap investigations or somehow protect Trump/GOP. And aggressively litigating executive privilege claims to seizing Clark/Eastman/Perry’s phones, were just a couple of several actions, very early on, that completely went against the Feckless Garland fantasy.
Frankensteinbeck
This is a random moment to do it, but I would like to own up to being wrong. I predicted that when Republicans folded on the debt limit (and boy, did they) the crazies would try to vote McCarthy out. They did not.
West of the Rockies
Happiest of birthdays, WaterGirl! You keep this joint running smoothly.
Bupalos
I’m rooting for zero chaos. As badly as the media would like this to be a huge spectacle, and as much as there are way too many people on “both sides” helping it be a spectacle…. the biggest win we can have here as a country is if this fades to boring background noise and a boring enforcement of law.
I’m somewhat hopeful it will. That the primary will get confusing and sloppy, that the fundamental silliness of the end-of-the-world rhetoric will become universally manifest, and that people will just accidentally drift back to real life. Because real life is where we have the overwhelming advantage. Gotterdammerung fantasy spectacle is what the reactionaries thrive on. There are scenarios where indicting Trump becomes a gift to them.
SFAW
@Jackie:
So? It’s obvious that Smith just borrowed Obama’s time machine to go back and plant them.*
Must I mansplain everything?
* That’s the one Obama used to plant his fake birth announcement in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin, in case you’ve forgotten.
Tony Jay
@WaterGirl:
Happy Birthday, Aquamaid!
Frankensteinbeck
@SFAW:
Well, actually, yes, or you’re not mansplaining right.
Weapon X
Dow soars in anticipation of Trump arraignment.
I would love to see someone sneak that onto a major news network’s chyron.
SFAW
@Frankensteinbeck:
>Slaps own head in disgust/embarrassment<
la caterina
Happy Birthday WaterGirl!! Thanks for all you do for this blog community!
H.E.Wolf
Happy birthday, WaterGirl! Wishing you many happy returns of the day. Glad you’re getting such a satisfying gift from Messrs Smith and Garland. :)
Bupalos
@Frankensteinbeck: you can’t mansplain how to mansplain. It’s a infinite regression and logical impossibility, like an eyeball seeing itself.
Fair Economist
Happy birthday WaterGirl!
@Wapiti:
I wouldn’t be. I expect Cannon to accept basically every motion Trump’s lawyers issue and, accordingly, to dismiss this case fairly early on. Then we’ll go to appeals and maybe more serious judges will reverse.
Mr. Bemused Senior
P.S., Happy birthday!
James E Powell
@Roger Moore:
Agreed. It’s like shouting at the manager at a baseball game.
Jeffro
Another banger from Jamelle Bouie today: Republicans Have Made Their Choice
Decade upon decade of the GOP’s willingness to excuse their leaders’ criminality has led us to this day
Jackie
@Frankensteinbeck:
YET. I heard the MAGA members are renegotiating their oral agreements and want to put them on paper this time. Of course Kevin is poopooing this.
Omnes Omnibus
@UncleEbeneezer: Hey, I have a long line of posts on this blog agreeing with that perspective. I am trying to look for good faith reasons from the other side. With some, I do not think they exist. With most, I do.
The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion
Happy birthday, Watergirl!!!!
Old School
Inflation will kill us all!
Omnes Omnibus
@Old School: Where’s Goku?
Old School
Happy Birthday WaterGirl!
Jackie
@SFAW: 🤔
twbrandt
Way OT, but I’m off to Norway and Sweden today, returning on June 24. I hope to have a couple of OTRs out of the trip.
Sean
@Frankensteinbeck:
I also made a lot of noise about what I believed would be true RE: Debt Limit and related ephemera and was wrong on just about everything I said. Feels great to be wrong sometimes.
smith
@Jackie: I always assumed that an unspoken part of the debt ceiling deal was that if the MAGAs came for Qevins’ job, there would be sufficient Dem votes to thwart the attempt.
ETA: Keeping Qevin in the seat, so the GQP remains divided, might be better for the Dems than any alternative.
bbleh
HB WaterGirl, and what a LOVELY birthday present Mr. Smith is giving you!
Jeffro
No Labels dropping the mask entirely here: they’ll fold if DeSantis is the GOP nominee
hoo boy, Republicans…y’all are about to go THROUGH some things
*by which we mean, “front group for the hard-right that’s tired of losing with trump but is afraid to say so”…I get it, “centrist” is shorter and catchier… >(
Delk
Happy Birthday! Water Girl
bbleh
@Bupalos: My guess is that in reality it will be a nothingburger, but because the media gotta have their show, they’ll find the loudest, most obnoxious MAGAts they can, send “reporters” to egg them on, and keep the camera on them all day if they have to. For all we know, the media will outnumber the (other) spectators, but they’ll make sure it looks like a full three-ring circus.
bbleh
@Frankensteinbeck: @Jackie: apparently the Republicans are reneging on their agreement with Biden, saying they’re going to set appropriations levels far lower than agreed to. And yet somehow this is treated as business-as-usual.
Jackie
@Jackie: Here’s the skinny:
“Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) told ABC News the House Freedom Caucus is renegotiating its “power-sharing agreement” with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).”
“He noted it will be “in writing” and released publicly.”
“But McCarthy cast doubt on that: “I don’t know that there’s anything in writing here. The only thing we agreed to do is – we’ll sit down and talk.””
“Gaetz also told Roll Call that if there’s no progress, “perhaps we’ll be back here next week.””
For some reason a glitch kept thwarting me from posting to my original comment.
Elizabelle
May I join Jack Smith in wishing WaterGirl a happy birthday. Although he came up with the better present.
Chief Oshkosh
@UncleEbeneezer: Yeah, that Schiff guy, always with the bad faith.
https://newrepublic.com/article/164095/adam-schiff-merrick-garland-trump
Jackie
@Omnes Omnibus:😂
Elizabelle
@twbrandt: have a wonderful trip
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: A lot of people believed that. The Freedom Caucus diehards may even have believed their own big talk. One reason they may have backed off is they realized that deposing McCarthy could result in a Speaker very different than what they want.
TriassicSands
That remains to be seen. The machinery has been set in motion, but if Trump is not convicted, given the overwhelming evidence, either due to a judge directing an acquittal* or a MAGAt manages to get on the jury and refuses to convict, then, once again the president (and former presidents) will be above the law.
Let’s be honest, “Innocent until proven guilty” is normally a good thing, but in the absence of an unimaginable defense, Trump has publicly demonstrated his guilt in ways that normal crimes and criminals are never revealed.
*Anyone believing a judge can’t do that need only read the story of Leonard Peltier’s trial in North Dakota in the 70s. Two other defendants were acquitted using self-defense as the basis for a not guilty verdict, but the government moved Peltier’s trial to a different venue and Peltier was railroaded by a corrupt judge.
@Fair Economist:
It will be interesting to see what Cannon chooses to do. A fair-minded, rational judge in her position would recuse herself from the case. But “her position” is precisely because she wasn’t fair-minded and rational. She wiil be scrutinized in this case in a way no other judge before her has been watched. She has to know that.
She was slapped down hard by the appeals court. Does she really want to risk that again? Does she figure that Trump will eventually be re-elected and at that point he’ll fix any problems she creates for herself.
One thing is certain — zealots like Cannon are potentially dangerous. Is she one of those people who is extraordinarily dangerous because she is so stupid that she doesn’t know how stupid she is?
Delay is Trump’s best weapon at this point. Maybe recordings of Trump’s phone conversation with Cannon during which she agrees to delay at every turn will surface. (If only…)
zhena gogolia
Happy Birthday, WG! 🐶🐾💜🌈🍾
Geminid
Duplicate
Ruckus
@Jackie:
If SFB wasn’t such a pompous, arrogant asshole we likely wouldn’t be here in the first place. But he is and we are.
He’s the wounded (self inflicted of course) 14 yr old who screams bloody murder when the antiseptic is applied to the paper cut he got trying to throw out his sisters HS report. Every single thing is drama, because it draws attention to him. He has the maturity of a 14 yr old snicker’s bar, which is to say – none. He also has the intelligence of that 14 yr old snicker’s bar, which is to also say – none. And he’s as useful to the world as that 14 yr old snicker’s bar is to the concept of food.
Almost Retired
Happy Birthday WG! And yet banks and government offices remain open. That ain’t right.
Jackie
@Jeffro: No Labels has openly said their sole purpose for being is to keep TIFG out of the WH.
They totally deny a 3rd party candidate will put TIFG BACK IN the WH – by taking votes from Biden😡
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
Perhaps they all should be addressed as “SIR Ben Kingsley.”
Chief Oshkosh
@dm:
Yep, these former prosecutors and experts and others (like Schiff) are generally ignored by the dominant gang here at BJ when it comes to this specific issue. Humans gonna be humans. They are loathe to admit that there’s at least the appearance that DOJ didn’t get serious about pursuing Trump himself until Schiff and other experts started publicly dragging Garland. It’s all whisky under the bridge, but the condescending back-patting does get tiresome, and arguably has driven off some folks.
eclare
@FastEdD:
Still waiting on my promised taco truck. ::sob::
Eolirin
@Frankensteinbeck: I think they realize they’ll lose. Instead they’re completely preventing the house from moving any legislation, something they can do more or less perpetually unless McCarthy gets help from the Democrats.
Jackie
@eclare: Me too! Every Taco Tuesday I keep hoping THIS will be the week…😢
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@TriassicSands: Some of the legal commentary I’ve heard says that if she does not recuse herself, there is ample grounds and established law for the 11th Circuit to remove her if requested by DOJ.
It’s precisely her egregious behavior with inserting herself into the investigation that provides those grounds. If she hadn’t done that, this avenue might not have been possible.
So I’m cautiously hoping those commentators are right. This possibility certainly must have at least occurred to Garland and Smith, and they must have gamed it out. These are very smart people.
StringOnAStick
I think inflation works over Goku because as a relative youngster (here anyway) this was his first real experience with it, and working in the grocery business means he hears people complaining about prices all day, not realizing that (1) inflation is a normal part of a demand economy and waxes and wanes, and (2) people have complained about prices at grocery stores ever since there has been grocery stores. Most people here have been around long enough to have seen plenty of cycles of inflation and mainly to know that most people spend way too much time complaining about pretty much everything. To him this is all new and he’s a victim of how sensationalist our media has become; it keeps him like a hamster on a wheel, freaking out constantly about money.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
Two things. First, to do that they would need a leader. Who pray tell might that be? Second, they would have to find a “leader” to take his place. Who pray tell might that be?
eclare
@twbrandt:
Have a great trip! I’ve never been to that part of the world, take lots of photos so I can live vicariously.
Gravenstone
@Omnes Omnibus: This will also be the hearing where pre-trial restrictions and such as outlined, yes? I suspect the details of any prospective gag order will be quite important.
Bupalos
@TriassicSands: I’m going to disagree that he’s “above the law” if he gets off because of a corrupt judge. We’d just have to recognize there are some issues with our version of “the law.” And look to address those. But that’s not at all the same as not bringing the judicial system to bear on him. Today is a victory in itself.
Eolirin
@bbleh: Cool, under those circumstances, the Senate Dems refuse to go along, we have a government shut down for a couple of months, and then the automatic spending cuts kick in, and everything gets funded with a 1% reduction until we can regain control of the legislature.
They can’t really push for deeper cuts than those 1% ones. Democrats can just say no and live with those.
persistentillusion
@WaterGirl: I got an announcement of indictment for my birthday! We have gotten such lovely gifts.
p.a.
@eclare:
There’s a youtube series, Tasting History with Max Miller, with a show on tamales, and in the early decades of the 1900’s, there was a trend for tamale trucks in the US in response to their popularization thanks to one of the World’s Faires/Expositions of the time!
ETtheLibrarian
I am not going to let tRump cult members drag me to their level and nihilistic state.
I can’t help but feel part of our problem is that too many Americans have given up on what this country could be in the best sense of the word and are mired in the grievance (some of which is deserved). For many it hasn’t lived up to its potential and/or isn’t perfect. On the flip side are those who believed the history books and propaganda with all their bias and lies and can’t stand that things aren’t going to continue that way and maybe be a little less comfortable in the real world.
eclare
@p.a.:
Tamales, tacos, I’m open to either!
MazeDancer
And on a shallow note, apparently Jack works out. And travels wearing a polo shirt so you can’t miss it. Video proof.
Actually didn’t think Mr.Smith would try the case himself. But maybe he wants to start intimidating TFG early.
Matt McIrvin
@StringOnAStick: To me, the inflation of the past few years feels piddling compared with what I remember from the 1970s, when it was this endless grinding mystery problem that nothing seemed to be able to control, rather than the result of a temporary supply shock maybe mildly exacerbated by necessary relief measures in a massive global pandemic crisis.
But we literally haven’t seen anything like it since the 1970s in the United States.
Manyakitty
@MazeDancer: nice guns on that guy 🤩
Ken
Baud! Baud! Baud!
This opens a much simpler path to the White House than all that campaigning, and doesn’t rely on the fickle voters.
PAM Dirac
@Eolirin:
Yes I think an under-appreciated aspect of the debt deal is how the Rs ability to do serious damage by just saying No is much reduced. At the same time the Ds ability to avoid serious damage by just saying No is increased.
Anyway
@twbrandt:
Bon Voyage! Sounds like a neat trip. Looking forward to the OTRs…
smith
@Matt McIrvin: I remember the 70s inflation well. Wow, was that a shock. It didn’t help being young and on a very limited budget as well.
MazeDancer
@Manyakitty: One video, and Twitter has turned into a Jack Smith Appreciation Thirst Club.
Hey, if he didn’t want that to happen, he could have worn a tasteful, linen sport coat.
Betty Cracker
@Bupalos: Fair point. It will be an injustice if Trump skates despite massive amounts of evidence of wrongdoing, but injustices occur daily in the legal system. The indictment is a BFD all by itself.
@Chief Oshkosh: Personally, I found former AG Eric Holder’s comments on prosecuting Trump for J6 alarming because the remarks seemed to confirm the existence of an institutionalist impulse that entirely loses the plot.
IIRC, the occasion was the revelation of Trump’s deep involvement in plots among the suits in the White House to keep him in power after losing the election. At that point, Holder said he was in favor of investigation and prosecution if the evidence was there.
Prior to that coming out, Holder said his reflexive impulse was that it would be worse for the country to investigate and if warranted prosecute Trump for J6 because people would see that as politicizing the DOJ.
But not going after Trump because you’re afraid of how Repubs would react is politicizing decision-making at the DOJ. Just do the damn job. Don’t be a Comey! ;-)
Anyway
@eclare:
“My” taco truck has tamales occasionally. The lady that operates the truck lets me know when they have tamales as I am a repeat orderer :-)
smith
@Betty Cracker: That sort of timid response is why previous presidents have gone unpunished for acts that pretty much amount to treason.
Ruckus
@eclare:
If you ever have the opportunity to go, absolutely do.
I didn’t get to Sweden but if Norway is any indication….
I got to see a lot of the world that save for the USN I likely never would have seen. It went from switchblades being pulled on us in Naples to some of the most beautiful parts of this world and people that would go out of their way for no reason other than you were a visitor in their country. I’ve been to 47 of our states and some of them are amazing places, with real human beings living there but we are seemingly a slightly more selfish country overall than some others. Norway is one of my all time favorite places on the planet. The land was amazing, the people were better.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chief Oshkosh: I don’t know. I feel like a little bit for football spiking is called for in this case. YMMV.
sdhays
@Geminid: Their fundamental problem is that no one wants McQarthy’s job. So if they depose him, the House is going to be shut down for potentially a long time while they thrash around covering themselves in feces, taking a taxpayer-funded paycheck for not even performative “work”. No kangaroo committees. No bullshit bills. Nothing.
Geminid
@smith: And the interest rates at the end of the 1970s were brutal. I was one of 25 employees with a custom home contractor, and while I was not laid off over half of the rest were.
I did get laid off by a different contractor in 2008. I did not have mortgage payments or dependents, but it was no fun and I never really made up the lost ground.
rikyrah
Happy Birthday :)
Omnes Omnibus
@Bupalos: I agree. No one can guarantee a guilty verdict in any trial. Indicting Trump is a win in itself and is a necessary first step toward other potential wins.
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer: Ooh, nice! I didn’t succumb to Stormy’s lawyer (Avenatti?), but Jack is hawt.
bbleh
@Eolirin: @PAM Dirac: right, the deal as codified has a failsafe for exactly this situation, so practically it doesn’t matter (much). And presumably the Congress-critters making these threats know it (one is Chair of Appropriations iirc) so their threats are purely performative. And this is of a piece with the MAGAts: they don’t care about governance at all (or consistency or or or); all they care about is posturing and stirring up the rubes. But what bugs me is, they are, plain as day, announcing they’re reneging on a deal they agreed to, for a situation they caused, less than a month after they agreed to it, and the general response is, ho-hum there they go again aren’t they cute?
They’re bad-faith actors all the way down, and yet they’re treated as serious, dependable participants in governance by pretty much everyone, the media definitely included.
JWR
Gavin Newsom went on Sean Hannity’s sh*tshow. Why? Hell if I know, because even though Newsom knows what he’s talking about, Hannity ignores all that and goes straight to spewing his wingnut talking points. Reminds me of an argument I had about the invasion of Iraq with my right-wing brother, and he would have none of that *facts* crap, he had talking points to use! It’s so pointless, and frustrating as Hell.
PAM Dirac
@Betty Cracker:
I agree and I think it is clear that no matter what happens in this case, there will be other opportunities to convict drump of serious crimes. Also, I wouldn’t be too sure that the Federalist Society’s orders will be to protect drumpf at all costs. The Kochs are big Federalist Society donors and they just released a big ad buy for “Trump can’t win” ads. The Federalist Society might find it more useful to have Cannon add to drumpf problems, instead of fixing them.
Antonius
Certainly not former federal workers.
catclub
another enemy of the Q tribe with a time machine.
eclare
@MazeDancer:
Nice guns!
Manyakitty
@MazeDancer: nothing wrong with visceral appreciation, and I suspect the outfit you describe would have the same effect. 😀🤭
RaflW
@JWR: My thought is, Hannity will spew his disinfo to his audience no matter what. Even if he ‘interviewed’ a ham sandwich, Sean would spout lies throughout the segment.
So if Newsom, Buttigieg, or whoever go on his show, OK they’re ‘legitimizing’ his program, but it’s been on for years and his base views it as legit without any squish libs being on. But, maybe, for 10 or 20% of the viewers, hearing different views and possibly getting some g.d. facts occasionally will sink in.
38% of Repubs polled the other day did think Trump was taking unnecessary risks with national security. Some of them are reachable, so having a few Dems going on Fox isn’t IMO bad in itself. It does require some good prep to not let oneself get gish galloped. Pete in particular does well against that.
bbleh
@Jackie: @SFAW: @catclub: no no, don’t you see, he was appointed SC because he planted the evidence 3 months earlier. He’s been in on it the whole time!
bbleh
@Manyakitty: @MazeDancer: @eclare: he’s reported as being a triathlete.
SiubhanDuinne
Very very late to the party (just got out of my Wars of the Roses class), but wanted to add my voice to the “Happy Birthday, Water Girl!” chorus.
(Managed to do something awful to my left hip while sleeping last night, and every step is an agony — but I’m now lying down for a bit in hopes that I’ll be able to get up and dance a sprightly little indictment jig in a couple of hours.)
Anyway
Happy birthday, WG!
eclare
@Ruckus:
Maybe someday…I am more of a Mediterranean vacay person.
p.a.
Yes, Happy Birthday Water Girl!
Manyakitty
@SiubhanDuinne: ugh, that’s awful. Hope you recover quickly!
eclare
@bbleh:
That’ll do it.
SiubhanDuinne
@Manyakitty:
Oh yeaaaaaahhh. And I say this as someone who fell head over ears in love with Ron Gant’s forearms 💪🏾 back in 1991 😊
TriassicSands
A couple of days ago, WaterGirl wrote this:
Since judges are chosen randomly, I’m guessing the opposite is true. It strikes me as more likely that they thought the odds were decidedly against them getting Cannon again. But, Smith is obviously a smart person and I don’t expect him to lie down and take it if Cannon once again demonstrates her mindless bias.
There is only so much a lawyer can do to “game out” a trial. The judge is in charge, not the prosecutor, and if Cannon keeps her bias within tolerable limits (which could appear outrageous to us, but maybe not to the other judges who would have to act to remove her from the case), she could heavily influence the outcome and still escape removal.
Garland and Smith know the law and play by the rules. Cannon does not. If she has any sense at all, for which there is at this time no evidence, she will tightly control her behavior. But even if they remove her from the case, she will still be a judge, so effectively, she is free to decide how far to go, if she chooses to try to help Trump. And if Trump is re-elected, there’s always that hope of a SCOTUS nomination…
Geminid
@SiubhanDuinne: A War of the Rose’s class? That sounds fun. I found that war fascinating, especially the role played by the Neville brothers.
RaflW
@Frankensteinbeck: “I predicted that when Republicans folded on the debt limit (and boy, did they) the crazies would try to vote McCarthy out. They did not.”
Has the House resumed, well, I hate to call it normal business, but did last weeks internal shutdown cool off over the weekend? That’s definitely different that Qevin getting the boot, but he is still just barely managing to hang on, IMO.
StringOnAStick
@Matt McIrvin: Exactly. I remember the inflation of the 70’s and the interest rates then. Those rates are what made me extra angry about the default attempt; being the world’s reserve currency means we pay much lower interest rates than we would otherwise. It really stuck with me years ago when I told a Spanish friend that I got a special rate of only 10% to buy an older home (federal program to help move older housing); she was stunned at such a low rate when she and her middle class husband were paying 22%.
StringOnAStick
@MazeDancer: You don’t mess with Ironman athletes; they know how to grind it out through incredible discomfort for very long periods and are very, very determined people. Go Jack!
Soprano2
@Jackie: He never lets facts get in the way of stirring up that MAGA heads.
SiubhanDuinne
@Geminid:
I’m fascinated by the whole “family saga” element: the genealogical connections, the dynastic marriages, the internecine feuds (in this case, played out on the battlefields). I’m less knowledgeable about or interested in the actual military engagements, so I’m trying to pay closer attention to those.
Jackie
@RaflW: I hope video surfaces! Surely someone had their cell phone recording…🤞🏻
““House Republicans sparred in what members described as a ‘fiery’ closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday, with mainstream GOP lawmakers blasting a group of 11 conservatives for the blockade of floor action last week,” Axiosreports.”
“”Moderates took to the mics to slam the 11 members who froze the floor, arguing that a small group does not speak for the entirety of the conference and blasted their calls for a renegotiated speaker’s agreement.””
”Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) was “screaming at the mics” about the floor shutdown, “dropping multiple F bombs” and telling the room “he’s introducing bills to save lives and it’s not shit that gets on Fox News.””
Via Political Wire
SiubhanDuinne
@Manyakitty:
Thank you! Pretty sure I just slept wrong and it’s a temporary annoyance. Hope that’s all, anyhow.
cain
@Jackie: how the fuck is the DOJ able to get documents that they don’t have the authority to even look at, much less plant them – of course, this is all about getting his people riled up with lies.
lowtechcyclist
@p.a.:
Damn, now I want a tamale truck on my corner!
cain
@Fair Economist: Didn’t she even volunteer help for the defense at one point? That was pretty egregious too.
cain
Happy Birthday, WG!
Soprano2
@Old School: I’ve been seeing significant “price drop” signs in WalMart, advertising regular prices dropping $1 or even more. I doubt that will get page 1 coverage, though.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ruckus:
They need neither of those things. Any one of them can stand up and demand a vote to remove McCarthy. Then they don’t give a shit about who replaces him. They even get off on the chaos of there being no replacement. It’s not like they want the chamber to function.
Soprano2
@bbleh: This is when I really, really miss “The Daily Show”. We need Jordan Klepper there to interview the MAGA’s waiting for Trump’s arraignment!
lowtechcyclist
@PAM Dirac:
Maybe by the people who didn’t really grok what was going on in the first place. But from the Dem standpoint, that was the whole point of the deal: once the debt ceiling was out of the picture until 2025, the worst the Rethugs could do was force a government shutdown, which was no big deal compared to hitting the debt ceiling.
NotMax
Birthday, a happy have!
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: I remember that well – inflation and unemployment were both over 10%, interest rates were as high as 20%! I was taking economics in college in 1980-81, and the professors kept saying “This is what usually happens, this is what is happening now”. People freaking out about what’s happened the past couple of years have no idea how much worse it could be. I wonder how vociferously the drop in inflation will be covered in the press. Probably not very, they would much rather promote bad news.
lowtechcyclist
@WaterGirl:
Happy birthday to you, you belong in the zoo…
This zoo, to be specific. Have a happy one!
RaflW
@Jackie: Van Orden won his district by a relatively narrow 4%, in a district that had been repped by a retiring Dem. I’m sure he’s looking at some freshman re-elect anxieties, esp given how his region voted on the Protasiewicz election. I’d rate him as at least vulnerable.
But he’s out there on Twitter spouting Trumpist bullshit about the indictment. I hope WisDems are planing a strong shot at him in ’24.
Jackie
@lowtechcyclist: My corner has room for a taco truck AND a tamale truck!
SiubhanDuinne
@twbrandt:
Bon voyage! Sounds like a wonderful trip!
JWR
@RaflW:
Well, we can hope, anyway. The few clips I listened to, with Newsom putting out solid, provable facts, Hannity immediately goes the gish-gallop route, which I think is the sole wingnut super power. But more power to Gov Gav. We could do with a few more like him.
Soprano2
Oh, and happy birthday Watergirl! Thanks for everything you do for us, I know it has to be a lot of work for no money.
UncleEbeneezer
@dm: I follow Vance pretty closely and she has always been pretty confident that DOJ was doing a lot that we just wouldn’t find about until later. She even cited examples from her own experience. And she was saying that even before 1/6 committee hearings.
Matt McIrvin
@StringOnAStick: The thing I didn’t remember, because I was a kid for most of it (but economists have been talking about it recently, when analyzing the 70s stagflation) was that while interest rates on what you could borrow went way up, the interest rates you could easily earn didn’t really rise until near the end of the decade.
I remember that in the early 1980s, when I was old enough to understand what was going on, you could get these amazing rates that earned real money on money market savings accounts and CDs. But that was after a round of deregulation that had previously prohibited that.
And to me, that goes a long way toward explaining why the situation was so intractable for a while. The Fed could hike the prime rate all they wanted but if ordinary folks couldn’t earn any of that interest, it wouldn’t incentivize saving. People would just keep buying things they couldn’t afford out of the fear that the buying power of their money would evaporate tomorrow.
Of course it wasn’t just that–there were issues with oil shocks, monetary policy etc.
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: But what if six fed-up Republicans decide to join the Democrats and elect a “caretaker” Speaker, like Tom Reed or Charley Dent? Then the Republican Majority would have lasted only 6 months, and all they could do is snarl at each other until January, 2025. Then Hakeem Jeffries will take the Chair.
TriassicSands
Happy Birthday, WaterGirl
NotMax
@Geminid
Speaker need not be a member. They could Warhol it. Every R gets to be Speaker for 15 minutes.
//
Frankensteinbeck
@Geminid:
A) Unlikely, and B) They don’t care. McCarthy will have been punished. They will have told the Republican Party that you must obey the crazies. That is how they will see it, assuming they even think that far and don’t run on raw temper tantrum.
Wanderer
@WaterGirl: Happy Birthday. I hope you have a wonderful day.
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: I agree this scenario is unlikely. But it’s worth pointing out because it could happen, and that possibility may deter a move by the Freedom Caucus die hards to topple McCarthy. They cannot control the aftermath.
Why should David Valadeo and Dan Newhouse obey the crazies that they probably despise? They already broke with the party once when they voted to impeach Trump, and they still made it back to Congress. Valadeo and Newhouse run in jungle primary states. They might even run better if they broke with the radicals.
And why should Don Bacon obey the crazies? He barely hung on to his Nebraska district the last three cycles, and he likely plans to retire. Bacon already retired once 10 years ago, as an Air Force general. He probably would be glad not have to listen to Boebert and Biggs in caucus meetings anymore. There could be more like him.
McCarthy could make it to the end of this Congress as Speaker as Speaker, so this scenario may never have a chance to happen. But I bet it’s been thought about, and talked about too. Bacon floated the idea at the beginning of this Congress.
WaterGirl
@Jackie: My sister’s birthday is flag day. Our birthdays line up perfectly with their anniversary. I guess we know how they celebrated! :-)
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay: I can honestly say that I have never been called AquaMaid before. At least not to my face! :-)
WaterGirl
@persistentillusion: Best gifts ever!
edit: Except conviction! :-)
Torrey
Late to the party, but Happy Birthday, Watergirl! If your birthday triggered the indictment, thank you! And if it didn’t, thank you for everything else you do, from front-paging to running the fund-raisers to setting up and running the Zoom meetings and all the rest of it!
Mousebumples
Late to the thread, to say Happy Birthday, WaterGirl!
And Happy Second Indictment Day, to all who celebrate. 🎉