LIVE update from Cedar Key, Florida with thunderstorms well in advance of Hurricane #Idalia that is intensifying rapidly over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. A record 15 feet storm surge is expected throughout the nature coast. Stay safe everyone. Hurricane Idalia will be… pic.twitter.com/RZ0X9CiWLW
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerAccu) August 29, 2023
August, come she must…
Earlier this afternoon, we used our new FloodFX Simulation technology to show what nine feet of #Idalia storm surge would look like in Cedar Key, Florida, where is stationed: pic.twitter.com/db70HozyIx
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 29, 2023
This is what storm surge in Cedar Key will look like tonight. You cannot survive it.
Check on friends and family in the area, make sure they leave https://t.co/fOD8Qw5CvZ
— Brendon Leslie (@BrendonLeslie) August 29, 2023
Baud
Going to be a long couple of days.
bbleh
Even for hurricanes, this is bad. Absent a very sturdy elevated structure, you can’t survive a surge of SIX feet. FIFTEEN feet is … unheard of. And, oh yeah, there’s the 60-100 mph wind, which goes on for HOURS.
If there is ANY doubt, get OUT. Some people are saying “we can’t afford to leave.” The fact is, you can’t afford NOT to.
SiubhanDuinne
Please be safe, Florida jackals. Check in when you can.
Anonymous At Work
Everyone offer this prayer for Florida and Governor DeSantis, “Lead from the front! Lead from the front!” and throw in a prayer for a strong and well-timed storm surge.
Yutsano
Fifteen feet? In Florida? That’s going to be devastating especially far inland!
SiubhanDuinne
It saddens me no end to know that the Cedar Key Library will almost certainly be inundated. Of course, people and pets are the priority, but there’s something so poignant about picturing thousands of books turning to a pulpy mush … like a small Alexandria, only wetter.
Mathguy
I hope everyone stays safe and out of harm’s way….but…a couple of questions: 1) watching the accuweather video, what kind of moron builds right on the Gulf a couple of feet above sea level; 2) will the Feds pay to allow said morons to rebuild?
bbleh
@Baud: alas it’ll be longer than that. It won’t be burned to the ground like Lahaina, but the destruction will be just as total, and far more widespread.
Mathguy
@Anonymous At Work: +1 on this.
Trivia Man
It looks like there are very few people in that stretch, I had just assumed the whole coast was very populated.
West of the Rockies
But climate change isn’t real, right Republicans?
RaflW
@West of the Rockies: Their current line is just as often “It’s too expensive to change our energy mix/adjust our lifestyles” as if the billions it will cost in Hawaii, or the wold disruption that Yellowknife, Canada has faced in evacuating 19,000 people, or Ian last year and Idalia this year are not a thing?
How much is it going to cost Florida when nearly everyone has their homeowner’s policy cancelled or assigned to a public backstop? At some point real estate values in FL are going to drop, too. First from uninsurability, and later some folks will be zeroed out due to uninhabitability.
Too expensive is such a crock.
bbleh
And one notes for the record that President Joe has already approved a disaster declaration AND told FEMA to prioritize aid to the area. And curiously, there are no complaints from Heartland Congress-critters about their Hard-Earned Tax Dollars™ goin’ to help them coastal ee-leetists.
Suzanne
My cousin lives on St. George Island. He and his wife evacuated this afternoon. Their house is raised on stilts, and he says that they have done many upgrades to it to make it survive in a storm…. and that they have no reason to test it. So they are off the island now. The family group text has been fun.
Scout211
That weather channel video is scary. I hope everyone has evacuated from Cedar Key. Positive thoughts to of all the Florida and Georgia jackals in the path of Idalia. Stay safe.
Jackie
@bbleh: This, coupled with a full moon making high tide even higher…
The only “good news” is the big bend area is sparsely populated – if Idalia stays on its forecasted track. If it veers right then Tampa may get directly hit.
realbtl
I spent a week in Cedar Key back in the 90s when the tallest building was 2 stories- except for those on tall pilings. Delightful place but I remember thinking there wasn’t much above sea level.
Villago Delenda Est
The absolute hilarity of DeathSentence urging Floridians to “move to high ground” in a state with the highest point being 345 feet above sea level betrays the fact that you need to get SOMEWHERE around 25 feet above sea level to be assured of not being flooded out.
Villago Delenda Est
@RaflW: Aquaman will always come to their rescue, according to the Virgin Ben.
Nukular Biskits
For Katrina, we evacuated from the MS Gulf Coast to my hometown of Meridian, about 160 miles north.
Katrina’s destruction followed us.
Today is the 18th anniversary of her landfall. Many of us still mark time in BK and AK terms.
Edit: Not to take away from the (hopefully not) destruction to be wrought by Idalia but it’s an ironic anniversary.
Villago Delenda Est
@RaflW: Perhaps it might just be too expensive NOT to change.
Omnes Omnibus
Stay safe, everyone in the path.
Villago Delenda Est
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m worried about Ms. Cracker, hubby, and canines myself.
Brachiator
Everyone in the affected areas in Florida, please stay safe.
When we had the storm here in Southern California, winds, rain and damage in most places was less than predicted. Maybe Florida and other areas will also get lucky.
Dorothy A. Winsor
That storm surge sound terrifying. Take care, people.
Doc Sardonic
While I am not a meteorologist, looking at the motion radar and barometric pressure, the way she is wobbling she may go further north toward Tallahassee or Panama City
H.E.Wolf
@RaflW:
Glad to see your nym! This is a follow-up to yesterday evening’s comments, with a link if you’re interested. (And of course it’s for anyone else who’s interested, too.)
The lead-off article in today’s Electoral Vote blog was a good example of the writers at their best. If it’s the sort of thing you like, you’ll like it. :)
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Aug29-1.html
Ken
The simulated flooding video, or the newsreader’s delight in describing the destruction?
Alison Rose
God, this looks terrifying :( My mom’s cousin is in Eustis, which looks like it’s on the edge of the path right now. I checked in with her on FB earlier but haven’t heard back yet. Not sure if they’ve left or not. Hope all of our Florida jackals are taking care!!
Jackie
@Brachiator:
“After wet weather and cooler temperatures it’s now 100 plus degrees. Crazy.”
We’re following your weather up here in WA. After 5 days of high 90s/103 degrees we’re enjoying a cooling breeze, rain and upper 70s. Alas, we’ve all of Sept to look forward to – which typically means more heat to look forward to. (Eastern WA)
Doc Sardonic
@Doc Sardonic: Before she makes her right turn Northeast. Another concern is the models show a loop around Bermuda in the Atlantic and return trip across to the Gulf coming in between Port St. Lucie and Mar-a-Lardass.
replied cause I lost my edit window
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@RaflW: Denying a problem exists to avoid the expense always works for me. That crack in my foundation isn’t affecting me right this second.
Doc Sardonic
@Alison Rose: Eustis isn’t far from me. We are well out of the cone and it is currently very cloudy with light rain and winds. Biggest concern here is trees because we have had a wet summer.
Scout211
yes
realbtl
@Jackie:
@Jackie:
Here in Montana currently 90º, overnight 51º and 58º with heavy rain tomorrow.
bbleh
@Jackie: and even if it doesn’t, there’s still a big storm surge there, and — weirdly for a northern-hemisphere hurricane — there’s been as much or more activity on the south side as on the north.
Another catastrophe. And the main part of the season is just starting…
Dan B
@RaflW: We did solar PV on the house in cloudy Seattle in 2009. Also air sealing, ductless heat pumps and insulation. It’s already paid for itself and the rest is gravy. And we drive an electric car, almost zero maintenance. People who say we can’t afford to change are lying fools.
Delk
I usually check this YouTube weather guy once a week.
Doc Sardonic
@bbleh: Think of a northern hemisphere hurricane like a clock face, it rotates counterclockwise and depending on the direction of travel the bad(or dirty) side of the storm is the area between 12 and 6, give or take an hour if the storm is traveling N. If it is traveling W the dirty side is between 9 an 3. Mind, there is no such thing as a good side of a hurricane to be on.
Gvg
@Trivia Man: not that part. Very underpopulated. In fact that is what the attraction is. Those condos and homes are for temporary visitors who have better sense than to live there. The permanent residents are fishermen, scallopers and the hotel and condo employees. There is also a population of poor people who don’t live on the coast but further inland. It’s a kind of rural swamp and relatively cheap. Most of them commute somewhere to a job. They will evacuate. Have done it many times before, it’s rather routine.
Ya’ll talk about how low lying Florida is and think 15 feet will flood some significant part of the state but it won’t. There will be a lot of flooding but this is a large state and our semi flatness means the water has a lot of room to spread out and not be deep. As soon as a hurricane gets over land, it stops sucking up water from the ocean and stairs weakening. Every mile it goes inland makes it less powerful.
The big bend area getting hit is a scenario weather geeks have talked about for years here. Florida has a lot of people who like to talk about this. The ocean floor has a long shallow shelf there so if a hurricane does come into the curve of Florida from below, it will push a big wave of water before it. If it arrives right at high tide, it will be worse. The geeks then talked about full moons to get worse cases. This has almost happened several times but hurricanes have a habit of changing course.
I guess this time it’s pretty likely. I still won’t be that surprised at some change of course. Most people there will be gone. A few idiots will stay, because someone always does, but not many.
property damage probably won’t be too bad because there is less there than almost anywhere else in the state.
I am about 50 miles inland in Gainesville. We are where Cedar Key evacuates. This storm so far has a heck of a lot more lightning than some hurricanes. Not sure why. I plan to unplug appliances tonight.
Barbara
@Nukular Biskits: Every August 29 I remember, because it was also the due date for my third child, who decided he would rather not be born on such a tragic day. The greatest tragedy of Katrina for me were the many people who tried to find a way to leave but had no way to get out. I hope people choose safety over anything else in time to leave.
Jackie
@realbtl: A cool rainy day can be a treat if you get to stay home and enjoy it 😊
MomSense
I think tonight is also a King Tide.
kalakal
In Pinellas just to the left of the path. Had a few rain bands, looks like the bigger stuff should be arriving about 8. The last update jogged about 25m to the west which took us out of the hurricane force winds zone but not the high end storm winds. Hopefully everyone has evaced from low areas, which given Hillsborough & Pinellas’ geography is a lot of people. The winds may not be as vicious here as predicted this morning but we are going to get a lot of flooding. It is going to be nasty here, it’s going to be horrible for the poor people further north. Looks like being a long night.
realbtl
@Jackie:
Yup being retired has its benefits.
Jackie
I wish BettyCracker would check in, but she might be busy battening down the hatches…
I don’t remember if she’s north or south of Tampa.
Jackie
@realbtl: It does, indeedy!
Miss Bianca
@Barbara: My dad was born on August 29, so now I always have Katrina in mind as well as him on this day.
Alison Rose
@Doc Sardonic: Good to know!
kalakal
@Jackie: She’s quite a bit North from Tampa, she moved upstate a couple of years ago. In the NE of the state I think. She should be ok for the first stage, the big question for her is how fast it does the NE turn after landfall. For her the further North the better
kalakal
For all those who don’t live in cyclone obsessed areas the National Hurricane Center puts up it’s full updates at 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm*. And interim updates at 2am, 8am, 2pm, 8pm. All times EST
* That’s when the computer runs finish on the models.
raven
We’re holed up in a La Quinta in Durham-Chapel Hill and will light out for Athens in the morning.
eclare
@Suzanne:
Oh I used to love to vacation there when I lived in ATL. I hope all the FL jackals stay safe and go if there is any doubt!
artem1s
cool site
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.621,-78.658,6.4z/date=2023-08-29,14:20,-4
live satellite feed from NOAA. It’s going to be bad and it’s only supposed to get to level 3.
Steeplejack
@Jackie, @kalakal:
Betty Cracker is not in northeast Florida; she is in Citrus County, which is west coast, about 60-70 miles north of Tampa. She and the mister do live inland, on the W-[something]-hoochee River. (Can’t remember the name.)
satby
@Nukular Biskits: My friend lived in Waveland, next to Pas Christian where Katrina came ashore. We didn’t hear from her for days, her elderly mom refused to evacuate so she didn’t go either. Their house, one mile inland and behind a small railroad embankment, was the only one left standing, though it flooded to the kitchen countertops height. They both made it, came back north to IL to live, and vowed never to go back.
eclare
@Nukular Biskits:
Wow what an anniversary. My older relatives in MS mark time in BC and AC. Camille.
espierce
@Steeplejack:
Withlacoochee River
Betsy
I am definitely sparing a thought for precious Cedar Key. Beloved place of the true, forgotten Florida. I hope it will come through.
raven
A tale of two Dog Island dwellings: USF prof’s Cat-5 home stands; LeRoy Collins home falls
Bradlee Shanks arrived at Dog Island Sunday prepared to endure a Cat-2 hurricanefrom inside his custom built home. Instead, he found himself face to face with a much more lethal Category 4 Hurricane Michael as it made landfall to the west at Mexico Beach. He survived with very little or no damage
Betsy
@Trivia Man: This little part of Florida has almost no sand beaches. It is blackwater meandering rivers and salt-marsh mud all the way into the Gulf. The same reason that keeps tourists away, attracts nature lovers though. It’s the Old Florida that you almost never hear about.
kalakal
@Steeplejack: Thanks. For some reason I thought she was further inland toward the east & north. I can never remember the name of the river either
Steeplejack
@espierce:
Thanks! That puts them about 25-30 miles from the coast, based on my half-assed reading of Google Maps.
kalakal
@espierce: Thanks, that’s a lot less north than I thought
Jackie
@Steeplejack: That was what I thought. Inland in the swamps with lots of trees. Hope she and Mr Cracker and Badger and Pete stay safe!
espierce
@Steeplejack:
From her comments, I believe she lives in the Inverness region.
satby
@Steeplejack: sounds far enough inland to be safer, that’s good.
eclare
@raven:
Interesting, thanks. I wonder how he fortified his house.
Safe travels tomorrow!
Barbara
@artem1s: The Saffir-Simpson scale needs to be rethought. The categories 1-5 refer only to the wind speed MPH, but most of the threats to life come from water — storm surge and rainfall. A fast moving category 4 or 5 hurricane is less of a threat to life than a category 2 or 3 that sticks around and dumps rainfall or generates storm surge. Yet, many people refuse to evacuate for less than category 4 storms. I think meteorologists are trying to do a better job demonstrating the threats of water, as the clip in the post showed.
Steeplejack
@espierce:
[Unfurling my virtual maps again. Where did I put the damn paperweights to hold the corners down?]
eclare
@Barbara:
I think they are too. I was shocked when one meteorologist demonstrated that two feet of moving water will sweep a car away.
kalakal
And now we have a tornado watch
Betsy
@kalakal: I believe she’s on the Gulf side, not NE Florida. North of Tampa.
ETA: nemmind. Others have better info. Thoughts for Betty and all the Cracker household.
Jackie
@kalakal: Great….! Where are you located?
kalakal
@Betsy: Thanks. You’re right, I knew she was north of here but for some reason had it in my head that she was more to the east way up above Orlando
kalakal
@Jackie: Clearwater, Pinellas County. The peninsula on the west side of Tampa Bay
Suzanne
@eclare: My cousin and his wife bought their house there during the pandemic, and they intended to use it as a vacation home/VRBO rental. Instead, they ended up selling their place in suburban Atlanta, moving out to the island full-time, and they work remotely. I understand the allure of beach life, but ehhhhhh. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think they were mildly crazy. They have the resources to evacuate, though.
eclare
@Suzanne:
That’s good they have resources. The threat of losing my home every few years would drive me nuts, as much as I like the beach.
Barbara
@Suzanne: Stilts should mitigate the potential for water damage, though I assume that even stilts can be weakened with repeated flooding.
Jackie
@kalakal: Stay safe! It’s gonna be a rocky few days for y’all🤞🏻🤞🏻
Nukular Biskits
@satby:
A lot of the focus for the destruction of Katrina was on New Orleans. And what happened there was indeed horrific.
But Katrina came ashore for good on the MS Gulf Coast, putting the worst of the storm surge and wind here. Pretty much the entire lower half of MS was without power for days/weeks, depending.
I came back from Meridian the day after, not knowing if I had a house left standing or not. Fortunately, most of my damage was relatively minor (roughly 1/4 shingles gone, barn gone, trees down took power box off side of house). At the time, I was living about 5 miles north of I-10, so well out of the storm surge area. Many of my friends and coworkers weren’t as lucky.
I went back to Meridian and came back with a truck and trailer load of shingles, probably 300 gallons of gas, etc, and we lived off of generator for two weeks.
Again, we were lucky.
Nukular Biskits
@eclare:
I well remember Camille as well. I was only 5 years old and we lived in Mobile, AL, at the time. We lived in a mobile home and I remember how the wind blew the trailer a few inches away from the den attachment my dad had built. I don’t remember us losing power, though.
My idiot dad (RIP) had us out in the boat in the MS Sound a few days prior.
Suzanne
@Barbara: Stilts lift the structure above the water, so flooding is less of an issue. But wind forces (lateral) create uplift when they pass under things — this is the phenomenon that resulted in so many roofs ripped off during Katrina. So. Fingers crossed.
artem1s
@Barbara: water and surge cause the most damage where landfall occurs. Hugo was a couple of knots short of 5 when it blasted up Charleston Harbor. The surge was devastating. 80% of the structures on Sullivan’s Island were gone – not damaged – gone. 60% of Isle of Palms – gone. It was a 150 year storm. But as bad as the water damage was to Charleston and the coastal areas, the wind damage inland was worse. It was still a category 1 when it hit Charlottesville and a tropical storm when it hit Ohio, WVa and western PA. The storm spun off over 100 tornadoes across SC, NC, GA, VA and WVa. The loss to lumber forests in GA was the worst since Mt St Helen’s eruption. Two summers after, I flew into Charleston and could still see the GA and SC pine forests flattened in spirals. The damage stretched from Charleston to the Great Lakes and into New England and thru Canada. The damn thing just wouldn’t die.
Barbara
@artem1s: I realize that wind causes a lot of damage, but water is more of a threat to living things. That’s my only point.
Jackie
It looks like Idalia has shifted a bit north – further from BettyCracker’s domain. Fingers crossed all Florida jackals in Idalia’s crosshairs stay safe!
frosty
Based on those links, I’m pretty sure our February campsite reservations at the Low Key Hideaway on Cedar Key won’t be very useful. Looks like a bit of Old Florida is going to be washed away.
kalakal
Update just came in. Still heading north and nudged slightly to the west. Intensifying, expected to hit land as 130mph cat 4.
About 125 miles west of Tampa. Fairly quiet at the moment in the Bay area. Lots of rain squalls
catclub
@bbleh:
 
Katrina storm surge was THIRTY FOUR FEET
Jackie
@catclub: NOLA is 8 ft below sea level to make it even worse.